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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
nipper
post Posted: Sep 11 2019, 09:02 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 3 2019, 01:54 PM

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but GNI is negative

.... and the economy has been in a "no growth" stage for a while on a per capita basis, which is the one that counts if talking about individual perceptions (and pain).
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What is completely ignored by each of these pundits is that for the very part of the economy that matters the most – Australian households – the economy has been in recession for seven long years.

Consider the below evidence....
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/09/au...year-recession/

Looking at GNI, GNE, real wages, HDI disposable income, share of the economic pie, almost all of the factors that affect individuals
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Put simply, Australia’s economy has been in recession for seven years from the perspective of households.

This is remarkable given we are at the tail end of the global business cycle when the economy is supposed to be booming. This also makes Australia a “sitting duck” as the global cycle slides towards its end.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 11 2019, 03:55 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 10 2019, 09:44 PM

hallelujah

ps.. i don't have religions.



 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 09:44 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 10 2019, 09:40 PM

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Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Leonard Cohen



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 09:40 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 10 2019, 09:03 PM

Yeah, it's usually the ones who can least afford it who end up the losers.
The winners are the ones who control the rules of the game..
The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 09:03 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 10 2019, 08:14 PM

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continuous boom and bust cycles
... winners and losers. Pity the stakes are so high



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 08:14 PM
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From The Australian

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Ultra-low interest rates and looser banking restrictions have sparked the fastest rise in mortgage lending in five years, as senior economists warn the growth risks reinflating a dangerous housing bubble.

Official data released on Monday revealed the number of new loans approved in July surged 4 per cent after the lending rules were loosened and following the re-election of the Morrison Government.

It came as analysts raised concerns the economy was still facing a slowdown given Canberra’s reluctance to use fiscal policy to stimulate household consumption.

The lending figures — the fastest increase in borrowing since October 2014 — came after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates twice in two months for the first time since the global financial crisis, bringing rates down to the current record low of 1 per cent.

The RBA has warned rates could be pushed close to zero if economic activity doesn’t pick up.

JPMorgan senior economist Sally Auld said the strong lending figures could trigger a resurgence in the Australian economy, which last week notched up its slowest quarter since the global financial crisis.

“But it’s not really the growth we want,” Ms Auld said. She said the increase in household debt and further reliance on the property market to drive the economy “will just make the vulnerability worse down the track”.

“Very large revisions to the credit data last month suggest the regulator has well and truly loosened its approach to investor mortgage lending,” Ms Auld said, pointing to a recent revision where the RBA reclassified $72 billion worth of wrongly classified owner-occupier loans as investor mortgages, equal to a 12 per cent increase in the stock.


It seems that we are doomed to being part of continuous boom and bust cycles forever.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 


mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 09:56 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 7 2019, 10:38 AM

And over time, this will become larger as more and more dollars pour into super.
The SGC rate is slated to eventually jump to 15%.
With such poor returns for cash, the cash has to be converted into non cash assets.
There is not enough quality assets at reasonable prices left in OZ, so overseas is where they go.
Super funds think long term, as most of their clients have to wait a long time to get their returns.
I am hoping the the AUD can creep a bit higher, and I will start looking at FOREX again as I wait the next drama to cause AUD to fall again.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 7 2019, 10:38 AM
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A surge of investment by superannuation funds has seen Australian ownership of foreign equities jump 27 per cent to $1.5 trillion in two years, making Australia less reliant on foreign capital.

The level of foreign equities owned by Australian investors reached a record $141 billion more than the level of Australian equities owned by foreign investors, reversing fears of "selling off the farm".

Income from investments overseas has increased 25 per cent in just two years, helping to reduce Australia's income deficit and lifting the country's current account into surplus for the first time in 44 years.


Slide 17, RBA Chart Pack. .. https://rba.gov.au/chart-pack/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: rog  mullokintyre  
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 6 2019, 10:44 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/us-nonfarm-...ugust-2019.html

The increase fell short of Wall Street estimates for 150,000, while the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%, as expected. An alternative measure of the jobless rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, increased to 7.2% from 7% in July, due mainly to a 397,000 increase in those working part-time for economic reasons.

Wage growth remained solid, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% for the month and 3.2% over the year; both numbers were one-tenth of a percentage point better than expected.
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not sure how Fed to adjust the next rate cut---------- raise to the bottom from every major central banks.



 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 5 2019, 09:55 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 4 2019, 11:50 AM

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There’s a neat symmetry between the parlous economic growth numbers released on Wednesday and the post-mortems being conducted on the brutal reporting season that ended last week.

The national accounts showed that GDP is growing at just 1.4 per cent on an annual basis, the slowest rate since 2009, in the dark days of the GFC.

Meanwhile, a review of reporting season compiled by JPMorgan shows that August saw a 1.9 per cent cut in earnings estimates for the benchmark ASX 200 for the 2018-19 year. It was the biggest earnings season reduction in EPS growth since – you guessed it – 2009.

Taken together, the picture painted by earnings season and the national accounts is not pretty.

Neatly mirroring the real economy, ASX earnings growth came in at just 1.3 per cent for the financial year. Just 25 per cent of companies beat profit expectations – the lowest rate in eight profit seasons – while 30 per cent missed. Dividends expectations were also marked down sharply.
Chanticleer

- and most of the growth is Public = govt spending; the private sector isn't doing that well. Strip out 1.6% population increase including migration, and it's easy to see why moods are glum



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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