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mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

An interesting rant, but i have one particular issue with the argument put forward.
Like so many others, he cites South Korea and Taiwan as being model responders that we could all learn from.
They put the case that testing temperatures of people going in and out and forcing the hi temp folks to test and go into quarantine allows most normal activities like schools, restaurants, retail shops etc to remain open.
The only problem is that there is a percentage of cases which are asymptomatic - they patient has the virus, is infectious , but shows no symptoms- including high temperature.
The value of this percentage I have seen as low as 18% and as high as 59%. ( see Nature )
So at any one time, there is a number of patients walking around undetected unless they test for antibodies in the system.
So it would seem questionable as to whether the check the temperature will pick up all patients with the disease.
Certainly, those with an elevated temperature can be tested, but unless they test a very high percentage of the non hi temp people, threr will be varying numbers of carriers undetected.
Either these countries were very lucky or there is some other as yet undiscovered factor.
One of the other factors cited is the level of already impaired lungs.
You can have impaired lungs because of air pollution, asthma, and smoking.
South Korea , Taiwan both have 23% of people smoking.
Italy, one of the worst hit areas also has 23% smoking rate.
Iran, another hard hit country has 12.5% smokers, and the US, with the biggest numbers of cases has a smoking rate of 14%.
Yes, you must be careful of generalisations over a large and diverse population, but once again, the figures don't seem to add up.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

sBM have joined the list of gold miners who say that the CV lockdowns etc have not materially impacted operatioms/production.
Of course that may change, particularly in PNG , as flights in and out are suspended.
Waiting.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

It seems that just about everyone hates Trump.
The media - CNN are refusing to show his live press conferences as it "gives him legitimacy".
Congress wants to impeach him.
Every entertainment celebrity, media mogul, film director, etc etc hates him (Geez, Bette Middler wants to blow him Up).
And yet, despite all this hate, the only people that really matter, the great unwashed of the American Public have given him the the highest approval rating of his Presidency.
Thats why you have to be careful with Democracy, sometimes the voters just don't listen to the experts.
Trump Highest rating


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Moby, one of my fav exports from Canada, has a really appropriate Video clip for these times.
And the song is not half bad either.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

RMS released its 3rd quarter results this morning (pretty efficient seeing as the quarter only finished technically last night!).

Everything inline with guidance, no impact so far, and can't see why the full year results will not be in line with guidance.
I thought it was a reasonably good outcome, but the stock got marked down with the other gold stocks.
Its only April, but the sell in May and go away looks like a good strategy. Just a month early.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 09:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Thanks Nipper, but I reckon the forward PE's will be the tell tale.
With a tad more than half the year put away before this crisis, the first half activity is still there in the P/e calcs.
But with next fin year, its likely to start much lower, with absolutely no indication as to how long the slowdown will last nor how deep it will be.
Companies will unsurprisingly have very low expectations.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

According toOZ Newspaper

Q
QUOTE
ueensland will be closed to non-critical mine workers from other states from this weekend as restrictions continue to tighten in the battle to curb the spread of COVID-19.

Mines Minister Anthony Lynham said only interstate fly-in-fly-out mine workers who were critical to a mine’s operations will be allowed into Queensland from midnight Saturday to protect remote and regional communities and local mine workforces.

“As all resources ministers around the country have said, the resources sector is essential to maintaining a strong Australian economy,” he said.

“It is critical that we move now to prevent people who may have been exposed to the virus bringing it to Queensland.

“Queensland has no known cases in our remote regional communities, and restricting these workers from entering the State will remove a possible transmission route.

“Exempting critical people will ensure that resources projects can continue to produce the mineral and energy resources we need,” Dr Lynham said.

“Most importantly, these critical people will ensure projects operate safely for the workers on site.”

The ban will exempt people who have statutory positions specified in legislation, including workers responsible for health and safety.

The changes do not affect FIFO or DIDO workers travelling from within Queensland.



Difficult to work out what impact it will have on QLD miners, depends on how many come from interstate.
But expect dome falls for QLD mines shares on the open tomorrow.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Russia has suspended gold purchases by their CB.

Kitco News) -

QUOTE
The gold market continues to deal with liquidity issues as mines and refiners close down because of the economic impact the spreading coronavirus is having across the globe; however, the market can now also expect to see lower demand as a major central bank said that it is not buying any gold as volatility remains high.

Monday, the Russian central bank announced that starting April 1 it will be suspending its domestic gold purchases.

"Further decisions on gold purchases will depend on how the situation develops," the bank said.
Not only is high volatility creating a challenging gold market, but Russia ’s economy is suffering as it engages in an oil price war with Saudi Arabia. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell to a fresh 17-year low Monday as prices dropped below $20 a barrel.

The announcement also comes as the coronavirus pandemic created chaos in the global gold market by grounding thousands of flights that deliver the metal to banks and dealers around the world. The breakdown in the global supply chain has caused shortages in key markets. Analysts have said that while there ’s plenty of the precious available, it ’s not always in the right place.

The Russian central bank has dominated the gold market, consistently increasing its gold reserves every month for the last three years.

According to data from the World Gold Council, the Russian central bank bought 158.1 tons last year. The WGC data shows that the central bank bought 8.1 tons of gold in January.

Although Russia will not be adding to its gold reserves in the near future, some analysts are not expecting the central bank to start selling its gold anytime soon.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research at the WGC said that although gold purchases might fall compared to previous years ’ spending sprees, gold remains an attractive diversifier for central banks.

He added that in a world of low interest rates, central banks could start to rely on their gold holdings to support their currencies.

Gold price are currently struggling to find consistent buying momentum. June gold futures last traded at $1,636 an ounce, down more than 1% on the day.

Started reducing my gold shares.
Been a great run, but time tio go back to mostly cash till the next indicator pops up.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I think the covid 19 virus self isolating is starting to affect my mental health.
This morning I cleaned the oven.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 08:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From one of my Fav satirical websites, Babylon Bee come some great headlines- don't even need o read the articles.

Headline " Government Accidentally Shuts Itself Down With Ban On Non-Essential Businesses "

QUOTE
WASHINGTON, D.C.—Congress has asked all non-essential businesses to limit their hours or close entirely for an undetermined amount of time.


But this shutdown mistakenly shut down the most non-essential entity of all: the government. For a brief period of time, all government in the United States was illegal, since it is completely non-essential to everything.

"Oops," said Senator Mitch McConnell. "We meant non-essential private businesses. Of course, the government is always essential, even when it's not doing anything or is making things worse."

Senators, congresspeople, and bureaucrats frantically rewrote the ban to include only businesses that actually produced something and not government agencies that just watched other people make stuff. Though they had dragged their feet on passing bills related to relieving the financial distress of the shutdown, they passed this revision in record speed, almost as quickly as they vote for pay raises for themselves.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said she would have caught the mistake but had passed the ban in a hurry, saying, "We had to pass the ban to see what it did."


and "Toilet Paper Crisis Solved As Government Prints Trillions Of Fresh, Soft Dollar Bills "
QUOTE
The administration explained that, while it’s possible the money might help get things flowing again for people who are in need of a strong push financially, the more practical use will be for those who have run out of toilet paper: “As the economic stoppage causes the dollar’s value to take a dump, we see this as a great alternative to increasingly scarce toilet paper.”

The statement also included several best practices for making the most use out of each crisp, worthless dollar bill, and even some tips on precise folding techniques in order to avoid defacing the United States’ first president.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 05:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Not really Currency related, but it is Block Chain related.
If you are struggling for some reading material, have I got a deal for you.
The Fed guvmint have released their BTC roadmap.
It can be found at BCT Roadmap
Don't cheat and just read the highlights, read the whole tome.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And up 25% today to just short of 30 bucks.
Mind you, its still a 10% drop from its high in Feb of 33.43.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I had an email from a mate in South Africa.
They are in complete lockdown- he can't even go out for a Jog.
One of the interesting aspects of South Africa is that given their incidences of AIDS, poor nutrition, high density population (at least in the non white townships), I would have thought that they woild have high rates of infections and high mortality rate as well.
They have had 1200 positive results from testing, and so far only 1 death.
They currently no cases in ICU. (which is good, as they don't have that many ICU Beds)..
The suggestion is that because the govt instituted a policy of compulsory vaccination against TB for the entire population, it is somehow providing a measure of immunity.
The Belgians are rushing through a 100 person double test to see how well the vacc correlates to immunity.
This is supported by OZ research
From science alert
QUOTE
Australian researchers are fast-tracking large-scale human testing to see if a vaccine used for decades to prevent tuberculosis can protect health workers from COVID-19, they announced Friday.
The trial of the BCG vaccine will be conducted with 4,000 health workers in hospitals around Australia to determine if it can reduce COVID-19 symptoms, the researchers at the Murdoch Children's Research Institute in Melbourne said.

"Although originally developed against tuberculosis, and still given to over 130 million babies annually for that purpose, BCG also boosts humans' 'frontline' immunity, training it to respond to germs with greater intensity," they said in a statement.

"We hope to see a reduction in the prevalence and severity of COVID-19 symptoms in healthcare workers receiving the BCG vaccination," said lead researcher Nigel Curtis.

He said the 4,000 subjects would be enrolled in the trial within weeks under a fast-tracked process with the approval of state and federal health authorities. "The clock is definitely ticking," he said.

Similar trials are being conducted in several other countries including the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom.


Lets hope it shows a strong correlation.
I had a TB booster a while back when we were working in Vanuatu, hope its still current!!

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 06:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Perhaps I did not explain myself (or him).
This guy says he looks at the futures of the index say for opening Monday morning.
He then works out if they are telling him to buy the stocks he is interested in or sell the stocks he has if the index is telling him that.
So what i want to know is , is there any correlation, and how close is that correlation if it exists, between the index strength or weakness and the index as it occurs on the open or shortly after.
This all started when I was telling him I had had some recent success selling gold shares into a strong opening, and buying them back later when they had weakened.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Does anyone know if there is data somewhere that matches the ASX Futures figures with what actually happens in real life??
Been having a "discussion" with an acquaintance who reckons that he uses the futures market to guide his BOTO trades.
I am a little sceptical of that, but of course open to being convinced.
However, I really need empirical evidence rather than anecdotal evidence .
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 10:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

An interesting Gallup poll from the US shows a surprising level of support for most US institutions in the way these institutions are handling the virus.
from Gallup


Here’s the breakdown of approve/disapprove:

U.S. Hospitals: 88 percent vs. 10 percent.
Your child’s school or daycare: 83 percent vs. 9 percent
Your state government: 82 percent vs. 17 percent
Your employer: 82 percent vs. 14 percent
Government health agencies such as the CDC or NIH: 80 percent vs. 17 percent
Vice President Mike Pence: 61 percent vs. 32 percent
President Donald Trump: 60 percent vs. 38 percent
Congress: 59 percent vs. 37 percent.

Gees, even Trump has a positive rating. he just beat Congress.
But way down the bottom of the list is the US Media.
The news media: 44 percent vs. 55 percent
it is the only one of the institutions where the approval rate is lower than the disapproval rate.

Gallop could not bring itself to mention the absolute figures showing how poorly the media rated
However, it did comment on the partisan nature of politics thusly
.
QUOTE
Only on the news media's handling of the coronavirus are Democrats more approving than Republicans -- 61% vs. 25%, respectively. Gallup has consistently found that Democrats have more confidence than Republicans in mass media.


Despite this, Gallops take on the figures

QUOTE
Americans are largely approving of how U.S. institutions and leaders are responding to the coronavirus situation.

Unless you are part of the media of course.

I guess given that orgs such as Gallop get a chunk of their income from the Media , they are unlikely to tip a bucketfull on their providers.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Theres no old people in New Zealand.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 28 2020, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

At last, some practical solutions to the economic ills in the USA.

https://youtu.be/7ADncN9HIa4

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 28 2020, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

An interesting Development.
According to Sprott gold sales
UPS have declared that all shipments will no longer be insured, and from now on will not require a signature.
For this reason, Sprott Money (and perhaps other gold sellers) are not shipping the gold coins ingots, bars etc to its customers.
Wonder what effect this will have on Physical??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 28 2020, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

According to Bllombergs

China is hitting the second wave of economic slowdown just as the poulation is coming out of the lockdown ans ready to get back to work.


QUOTE
Since last week, emails from foreign clients have been flooding into export manager Grace Gao’s in-box, asking to delay orders already made, putting goods ready to be shipped on hold until further notice, or asking for payment grace periods of up to two months.

Gao’s firm, Shandong Pangu Industrial Co., makes tools like hammers and axes, 60% of which go to the European market. As the virus ravages the continent from Spain to Italy, the shutdowns there are cutting off orders to Chinese factories just as they were beginning to get back on their feet. It’s a story playing out across the country.
“It’s a complete, dramatic turnaround,” lamented Gao, estimating sales in April to May will plunge as much as 40% from last year. “Last month, it was our customers who chased after us checking if we could still deliver goods as planned. Now it’s become us chasing after them asking if we should still deliver products as they ordered.”

This emerging pattern poses a grave risk to the chances the world’s second-largest economy can repair the damage from the closures in February to curb the virus. Even as policy makers including Premier Li Keqiang talk up a recovery and roll out support measures, economists continue to cut their growth forecasts.
“It is definitely the second shock-wave for the Chinese economy,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. The global spread of the virus “will affect China manufacturing through two channels: disrupted supply chains and declining external demand.”

The earliest insight from official data into the emerging pain for industry will come on March 31, when the purchasing managers’ indexes for the month are released. But unless there is a strong rebound, the record slump in profits seen in the first two months of the year is likely to continue.In the meantime, firms are saying that canceled orders, uncertain logistics and delayed payment have become their latest headaches.

“Manufacturers are seeing many cases where overseas clients regretted their orders or where goods can’t be delivered due to customs closures in other countries,” said Dong Liu, vice president of Fujian Strait Textile Technology Co. in southeastern China. His factory was about to resume full capacity, after the return of workers who had been stranded in Hubei province, the center of the original outbreak. “The dent on export orders is rather serious.”China is already facing its first quarterly contraction in decades and the weakest year since 1976. In a worst-case-scenario laid out by Bloomberg Economics, recessions in the U.S., the euro-area and Japan will chop some $2.7 trillion off of global output.

The cancellation or postponement of big sporting events, from the National Basketball Association season to the Summer Olympics, has also hit Chinese factories.

”A week or two after returning from Chinese New Year -- starting from mid February -- we started to feel our orders began to disappear one after another,” said Alice Zeng, whose company AQ Pins and Gifts Co. sells metal souvenirs. “First it was some marathons in Japan that were pulled. And then orders in Europe, and then the U.S.”

The firm exports 100% of its products and had been expecting a contract to supply Euro 2020, the now-canceled European football tournament. Her suppliers’ factories in Dongguan, near Hong Kong, are still busy now, but there’s not likely to be many new orders from April, Zeng said.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 04:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Not sure how accurate this report is.
Being from Vic, I have had very little to do with the SMH.
From SMH

QUOTE
As the coronavirus took hold in Wuhan earlier this year, staff from the Chinese government-backed global property giant Greenland Group were instructed to put their normal work on hold and source bulk supplies of essential medical items to ship back to China.

A whistleblower from the company has told the Herald it was a worldwide Greenland effort - and the Sydney office was no different, sourcing bulk supplies of surgical masks, thermometers, antibacterial wipes, hand sanitisers, gloves and Panadol for shipping.

The company even posted its efforts of packing pallets in the company’s Sydney headquarters on social media.
"Basically all employees, the majority of whom are Chinese, were asked to source whatever medical supplies they could," one company insider told the Herald. This exercise went on for weeks through January and February, he said.
The entire accounts department, contract managers, the human resources team and even receptionists were sent on a mission to find bulk supplies of surgical masks, thermometers, antibacterial wipes, hand sanitisers, gloves and Panadol.

"There were numerous requests from the HR manager and even our direct reporting line [which] prioritised the assisting of the company in gathering these supplies over other work activities," said the source. The entire accounts department were absent for days as they were out purchasing supplies, he said.

In a statement to the Herald, the Greenland Group confirmed the shipment of medical supplies in January and February saying it "felt compelled ... to assist in efforts to mitigate the spread of the virus, which had caused a shortage of crucial medical supplies in China."

Greenland Australia supported the group's initiative "by arranging for medical supplies to be dispatched to China, which at that time, was the epicentre of the outbreak," the statement said.

The boardroom and meeting rooms of Greenland’s headquarters in Market Street were used to repack the medical items into boxes stamped with the company’s logo. Pallet-loads of the medical supplies were then sent to China.Sherwood Luo, the managing director of Greenland Australia, posted photographs of this occurring on social media.

For instance on February 13 he posted on WeChat "#CombatCoronavirus, Greenland Australia is Taking Action. The second batch of non-contact forehead thermometers will soon take off to China! Coronavirus situation is serious, Chinese people, local and overseas, are trying their best, fighting together to combat the virus."

At this time China was battling the COVID-19 epidemic. As of February 14 Australia had only 15 known cases. It now has more than 2,300.

According to a company newsletter, the Greenland Group sourced 3 million protective masks, 700,000 hazmat suits and 500,000 pairs of protective gloves from "Australia, Canada, Turkey and other countries."


A second Chinese company also participated in this wholesale vacuuming.
Also from SMH

QUOTE
A second Chinese property company based in Sydney flew more than 80 tonnes of medical supplies on a corporate jet to Wuhan in late February, at the time coronavirus was devastating the regional city.

"The chartered plane with 90 tons (82 tonnes) of medical supplies, including 100,000 most needed protective coveralls and 900,000 pairs of medical gloves, has successfully departed from Sydney and arrived in Wuhan on 24 Feb," Risland Australia posted on its LinkedIn page.No one seemed to notice the hoovering up of medical supplies.
Risland, formerly known in Australia as Country Garden, is a totally owned subsidiary of Country Garden Holdings, one of China’s largest property developers.

Its major shareholder is 38-year-old Yang Huiyan, the richest woman in China.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 10:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From Kitco News

QUOTE
While ounces produced may be down in 2020, the margins for gold miners may be better.

A number of precious metal producers are reducing production due to government restrictions in response to COVID-19 concerns. Companies with operations in South Africa, Quebec and parts of Ontario have been told to stop operating.

One-third of NYSE-listed senior gold miners have withdrawn 2020 production guidance, according to data compiled by Kitco. (Sibanye-Stillwater, which is putting its South African mines on care and maintenance for the next 21 days, just said "...production for 2020 may differ from previous guidance.") And as more miners reckon with the impact of COVID-19, the number should rise.

Joe Mazumdar, editor and analyst at Exploration Insights, said this setback might not hurt as much as imagined. Gold seniors are cashed up due to the precious metal performing well in 2019, so the miners are in better shape to weather the downturn. Oil prices have also fallen steeply, a significant cost for miners.


Gold has fallen below the AUD2740 high, but at AUD2670, it is still above the level where it was when all the cataclysmic CV induced falls started.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

They would hardly say anything else, seeing as they make money from trades on the NASDAQ.
Not what I would categorise as an unbiased opinion.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From Science 2.0


QUOTE
A new paper shows that a selling feature of electric cars, fast-charging stations along highways, actually subject batteries to high temperatures and high resistance that can cause them to crack, leak, and lose their storage capacity.

What is needed is a method for charging at lower temperatures and therefore less risk of catastrophic damage and loss of storage capacity. A recent experiment did just that. Scientists charged one set of discharged Panasonic NCR 18650B cylindrical lithium-ion batteries, found in Tesla cars, using the same industry fast-charging method as fast chargers found along freeways. They also charged a set using a new fast-charging algorithm based on the battery's internal resistance, which interferes with the flow of electrons.

The internal resistance of a battery fluctuates according to temperature, charge state, battery age, and more. High internal resistance can cause problems during charging and the UC Riverside Battery Team charging method is an adaptive system that learns from the battery by checking the battery's internal resistance during charging. It rests when internal resistance kicks in to eliminate loss of charge capacity.
For the first 13 charging cycles, the battery storage capacities for both charging techniques remained similar. After that, the industry fast-charging technique caused capacity to fade much faster; after 40 charging cycles the batteries kept only 60% of their storage capacity. Batteries charged using the internal resistance charging method retained more than 80% capacity after the 40th cycle.

At 80% capacity, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries have reached the end of their use life for most purposes. Batteries charged using the industry fast-charging method reached this point after 25 charging cycles, while internal resistance method batteries were good for 36 cycles.

Worse, after 60 charging cycles, the industry method battery cases cracked, exposing the electrodes and electrolyte to air and increasing the risk of fire or explosion. High temperatures of 60 degrees Celsius/140 degrees Fahrenheit accelerated both the damage and risk.

"Capacity loss, internal chemical and mechanical damage, and the high heat for each battery are major safety concerns, especially considering there are 7,104 lithium-ion batteries in a Tesla Model S and 4,416 in a Tesla Model 3," said Professor Mihri Ozkan of UC Riverside.



The internal resistance method creates its own problems.
The charging system stops when the internal resistance gets too high. So, how long does it extend the "fast charge".
If the internal resistance goes up due to temperature, how long does it take for the temp to go down?


There may be a few more headaches coming up for Tesla.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Yeah, you would hope you died in a shooting rather than surviving and being taken to hospital.
have a very good chance of getting CV in those places.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 26 2020, 09:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

According to This Site which provided a translation from Czech of This Czech Site

QUOTE
The Czech newspaper Irozhlas (I-Radio) reports that the bigshots in Beijing sent 150,000 coronavirus rapid testing kits to Czechia which return false results up to 80% of the time.

Forgive the rough Google Translate results, but I don't speak Czech:

"We checked them on Saturday at the University Hospital Ostrava, but unfortunately the error rate was quite high, so now we are waiting for the results of further testing across the country, they have never been tested positively because it works with antibodies," said Svrčinová.
She added that the tests showed false positive and false negative results. "We tested those who searched for a sampling site. Fortunately, we were so far-sighted that samples were immediately taken for the classic examination and that just proved the error rate of the tests," said Svrčinová. Even if tests are used in end-of-quarantine patients, hygienists will want to check their reliability first.

Jan Hamacek, the Czech Republic's deputy prime minister and interior minister said, "I don't think it's a scandalous revelation that it's not working," but it's difficult to see how he reached that conclusion, given the huge failure rate and that the bad tests return both false positive and false negatives.


Thats not really going to help their image if indeed it is true.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 26 2020, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

PRX having another run.
Up 35% today. Must have found some nuggets.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 07:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

As of today, three of four of my kids are now unemployed
The fourth is in health services in a Govt Hospital, so should be ok, although elective surgery has been cancelled, so she may yet join the others.
One of them has a small farm, so will retreat there and grow some food for the rest of us.
So after being debt fee for years, I am now supporting a couple of kids and grandkids.
Their banks have given them a six month holiday on paying their mortgage, but of course in that time the interest just keeps accumulating.
2020 has been a bastard of a year, we should cancel the rest of it and just go straight to 2021
Mick.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Ask me next week.
Have been sent a link for teamviewer to livestream a funeral on Saturday or a young 23year old killed last week.
At least I won't have to wear a suit.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Well, I got that wrong!
Down 17% today following a announcement that CV is impacting their business (but they dont know how much).
So I bought some more.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Gold hits another record. AUD2740 as I type.
All my gold shares bar DCN which is STILL in a trading halt are well up on last two day, some up 20% plus.
Am now only 10% down since the start of the CV free fall.
Hoping to get into the green if things keep going.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 24 2020, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I would respectfully disagree with your sentiment.
The only way US financial systems can even begin to their clean up their toxic fiat based currency systems is for lots of their big poxy derivative filled debt laden behemoths go into chapter 11 bankruptcy.
The shareholders will take a bath, and hopefully the grossly overpaid execs will be much poorer.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 24 2020, 08:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Gold now nudging AUD 2700.
Must start to have a positive effect on gold producers, assuming they c@n g3t workers in and out to work on mines.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The law of unintended consequences strikes again.
All of those professional fund mangers,traders, bot handlers, shorters etc who rely on their direct fibre links to the ASX to beat the average Joe Blow to the punch will now be brought back to the same playing field as the rest of us.
They will now have to watch the market on a single slow computer with one or at best two poor resolution screens
Assuming of course the internet does not drop out of they get the dreaded "this page took too long to respond" message.
They will have to get used to the "waiting for www.... " message.
With so many offices closed down and people working from home, the demand for internet access has shifted.
Telstra is finding that the demand in CBD has fallen thru a hole, but demand in the burbs has gone thru the roof.
Across from me I have the offices of a large QANGO that for the past few days has been deserted.
It coincided with a severe drop off in NBN speed and availability here at home.
Initially I was puzzled as I has expected it to improve as the workers were not hogging the local data pipe.
But then I realised that this same QANGO would probably have their own private FTN , as the exchange is less than 500 metres to the exchange.
So the employees are now fighting the rest of the locals for a slice of bandwiidth that is insufficient.
Not to mention all the people at home binge watching Netflix, STAN or PornHub because they have been forced to do so.

Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 08:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

If your going to San Francisco, be sure to wear some flowers in your hair. (and a hair net, mask, gloves and a full body suit).
Mick.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Still a long way to go before I break even, much less get a profit.
In for the long haul.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Yeah, some businesses are roaring.
People not going to dinner and cooking at home.
Was talking to our local butcher and he said that in the past two weeks he has done more sales than he had for the previous two months.
He reckons he was tempted to take good rump steak and put it thru the mincer because people would pay anything for mince!
Talk about weird.
Why would you not buy a couple of pieces of rump instead of mince?
They can both be frozen.
Our local "Good Guys" have sold out of freezers.
The store manager said they had people coming up from Melbourne to buy them.
Weird as.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 07:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I am betting that the AUD has stabilised for now.
Around the 57 handle, 2 cents up from yesterdays intraday low.
We know rates won't go any lower (Aus will never have negative rtes).
The FED has allowed the RBA (along with a few other CB's) to participate on USD swaps to keep the money flowing.
The question is where the hell is it flowing to?
Maybe the supermarkets.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Trump was still just a reality TV host back in the GFC.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 01:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From the ABC
QUOTE
The Reserve Bank of Australia has taken the extraordinary decision to make an emergency rate cut, dropping the cash rate to a record low 0.25 per cent in a bid to ease the pain of the coronavirus pandemic and prevent a prolonged recession.


Why is it extraordinary?
Every Tom Dick and harry has telegraphed it.
Is it because they didn't do it after a regular meeting on the first Tuesday of the month??
Hardly makes it extraordinary.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 01:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Not surprisingly, the RBA has cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Equally not surprising is that it is unlikely to make any difference.
Before the announcement, AUD had slipped to .5538, the lowest level since 2002.
After the announcement, it "rebounded" to .5555.
The forex people must have been expecting an even bigger cut.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Was talking to my Brother in law this morning who drives trucks for a well known transport company that subcontracts to Woolworths.
he was saying there have been cases in the past few days where pantechs that have canvas/plastic rollup sides have been slashed and some of the contents pinched.
He was also aware of a fellow driver who had a refrigerated truck with solid sides who was sleeping at a truck stop near Yass.
He was awoken by two blokes trying to break in and steal the truck.
Doesn't take long for people to revert to a complete rabble.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Lots of people will have an outlook (including me).
If any of them have an outlook that turns out to be accurate, it will be a fluke.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The recent episode of the Diamond Princess cruise ship provided us with a near perfect Lab experiment on the corona virus.
Here we had a closed environment, very close contact between the unwitting experimental subjects and a wide range of age groups (though "the elderly" were more widely represented than in the general population.)
For those interested in statistical analysis, Wills Eschenbach has done some anlysis on the overall infection rates, recovery, and eventual deaths, and comes up with some surprising results.
Firstly, 83% of the passengers never got the disease at all.
Secondly, there was very little difference between the age groups as to who got the disease and who did not.
Thirdly, less than half the passengers who were tested positive for the disease showed no symptoms at all.
Fourthly, young and old were more likely to be symptom-free, while people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s were more likely to show symptoms.
Not surprisingly, of the 7 people who died, all were over the age of 70.
Finally, according to the study, the age-adjusted infection fatality rate was 1.2% (0.38%–2.7%). Note the wide uncertainty range, due to the small number of deaths.


Full articles STUDY Staistical analysis

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 08:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

So how do we get our hands on this flood of extra cash courtesy of QE?
I am sure people on low incomes would love to get some of it.
I have about ten pairs of jocks made by bonds. Would they be sufficient??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 07:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The low life has always been around, they just shift their modus operandi to whatever makes them the biggest buck.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 07:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Citigroup was sitting at 80 bucks in late february this year.
At the close last night it was down to 36.27 after "recovering" from an intraday low of 32.
Its has lost half its value since Feb.

From Wall street on parade

QUOTE
Now flash forward to yesterday. Citigroup was the worst performing bank of all of the Wall Street behemoths, losing 19.30 percent in one trading day. On September 15, 2008, the day that all of Wall Street was in crisis mode, Lehman Brothers filed bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch had to be taken over by Bank of America, and AIG was one day away from a government takeover, Citigroup’s stock only lost 15.14 percent.

And yet no matter what pundit you see on TV, all that one hears is that Wall Street banks have plenty of capital. These two things cannot be simultaneously true: the Fed cannot have had to be pumping hundreds of billions of dollars each week into Wall Street banks and their trading arms for the past six months (long before there was any coronavirus outbreak anywhere in the world) if these banks actually did have adequate capital.

The chart above shows that the major Wall Street “universal” banks, which combine a toxic trading culture, tens of trillions of dollars of dark derivatives along with owning federally-insured banks that are backstopped by the taxpayer, are once again trading as a herd just as they did in the 2008 financial crash. Citigroup, as of yesterday’s close, has lost 48 percent of its market value since February 14.

After the Federal Reserve allowed Citigroup to blow itself up with derivatives in 2008, eventually trading as a penny stock in 2009, the same Federal Reserve has continued to allow Citigroup to hold astronomical sums in over-the-counter (dark curtain) derivatives today. As of September 30, 2019, according to the latest data available from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Citigroup’s federally insured bank has $49 trillion notional (face amount) in derivatives, which is $16.8 trillion more than when it blew itself up in the last quarter of 2008.

And Citigroup is not alone. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America also hold insane levels of derivative exposure. Their likely insurance company counterparties, as outed by the Office of Financial Research, have also been bleeding massive amounts of common equity capital this year. And Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, is another counterparty that has been bleeding capital and setting all time lows.

This is likely the key reason that the Federal Reserve has not used its Section 13(3) emergency lending authority and created a commercial paper bailout program and other such programs. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010, the Fed can only use those emergency lending authorities if it briefs the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee, including providing the names of the banks getting the money. The Fed is also prevented from bailing out individual banks as it did in 2008 and can provide only broad-based lending programs.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly testified to Congress that the Wall Street banks it regulates have plenty of liquidity and capital. The Fed has been approving all of the stress tests for these banks and allowing them to spend tens of billions of dollars each year doing stock buybacks and paying increased dividends to their shareholders. Imagine the public and political backlash if it now turns out that the Fed has allowed these banks to become the same money-losing derivative casinos that they were in 2008 and they need trillions of dollars more in another bailout.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 07:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Silver still falling like everything else (except the USD).
Below USD12. though still holding above AUD20.
This despite the fact that there is a huge shortage of physical silver to be bought.
Physical silver is 4 to 8 bucks higher than the spot price (read paper derivative price).
In the US, you can pay for silver eagles at the 8 bucks premium, but you wont get them delivered for a few months yet as there is a lack of physical silver to meet the demand.
From Roco report
QUOTE
In the past week, the U.S. Mint sold another 792,500 Silver Eagles. What's interesting is that several precious metals dealers stated that the U.S. Mint had suspended sales last week. Well, it looks like they continued to sell more these past few days. It will be interesting to see if the U.S. Mint can ramp up production to 4-5 million a month as they were doing back in 2015-2016. But what happens if there are more lockdowns? There are a lot of unknowns moving forward.

Regardless, the U.S. Mint sold more Silver Eagles in March, that we have to go back to 2016 to find monthly sales 3-4 million.

So, here's what's really fascinating about the retail SILVER BULLION MARKET. The Buy-Sell spread on Silver Eagles in four various large online dealers averages about $9.00 a coin!!! This means, if you want to sell your Silver Eagles to one of these Dealers, you are going to get $9 less than what they are selling them currently.


Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 06:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Elon Musk has never lacked ego, but the Almed County Shefrriff has put him in his place.
Cal declared a state of emergency and stated that only essential business were to stay open, and that evrything else was in lockdown.
Tesla put out the following

QUOTE
National Critical Infrastructure are business sectors crucial to the economic prosperity and continuity of the United States, and includes auto manufacturing and energy infrastructure as defined by the Department of Homeland Security. People need access to transportation and energy, and we are essential to providing it. We have also been in close communication with the State of California, Alameda County, and the City of Fremont, regarding the federal government’s guidance.”

As a result, Tesla and our supplier network will continue operations that directly support factory production, vehicle deliveries, and service. If you work in these areas, you should continue to report to work, and if you don’t you should work from home until further notice.


Unfortunately for Elon and his employees, the county sherriff had other ideas,
From

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 06:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

More overnight carnage.
We are now in full blown panic mode.
The AUD fe;ll nearly 4% at one stage to sit below the 58 handle.
Evryone wants USD, though I am blowed if I know why.
Gold and silver both smashed, but gold still closer to 2600 than 2500. Its been above 2500 pretty much the whole time since the panic started.
madness in the markets.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 03:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

It appears the markets have woken up to the fact that gold in AUD has not changed at all since the Cv plunge started, and that the OZ gold stocks will still be able to make the same profits as before the CV pandemic started.
Thus we have seen from the lows of Monday and some Tuesday, we have
ALK 20% from its low,
EVN up 24% from its low
RMS up 14% from its low,
SBM up 29% from its low
SLR up 21% from its low.

Even that dog PRX is up 35% from its (abysmal) low.

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And PRX up 28% today.
Have no idea why, but having already bailed, cannot take advantage of its largesse.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

smashed thru the 60 cent barrier. Down to .5990.
Just how low can it go??
In the olden days, a falling currency signals inflation and rising interest rates.
Only change in interest rates is down according to the RBA
.Can't see much inflation on the horizon, especially with oil being crunched without obvious let up any time soon.
Good for exporters, not good for importers.
Beef exporters will be happy. Beef prices are sky high in Oz, but the prices are ameliorated by lower AUD.
No 2 son was going to buy some cattle this week, but with prices in excess of $4 a kilo, they were just to expensive for something that is just a sideline.
he says he will just keep growing hay instead.
Cattle will start to be rustled soon, saw it with sheep last year.
Professional mobs with dogs and trucks searching for isolated paddocks with stock in them.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

As the AUD falls,so the AU goes up.
Gold approaching AU2600.
Sold the SBM I bought the other day, a 40% profit was too good to pass up.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The announcement from the headmasters PA


QUOTE
The suspension of trading in the securities of Lake Resources NL (‘LKE’) will be lifted immediately, following the
lodgement of their Half Yearly Report for the period ending 31 December 2019.
Issued by
Lauren Osbich
Compliance Adviser, Listings Compliance (Sydney)


The headmasters PA has a most unfortunate moniker.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 07:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Hi Royco,
I wish I could share your confidence in BTC, but the fact that it gets more difficult to mine BTC over time, plus its finite supply, is its biggest hurdle.
It will be a niche player, may make buckets of money for a few, and may well become a standard means of transaction for some boutique business , but will struggle to get acceptance in the wider world.
However, I have no doubt that Block Chain Technology in its own right will have a massive impact on future electronic interactions.
It would not be just limited to currency, but to digital security, tracing goods and services, stock identification (as in cattle, sheep pigs etc)
For a replacement of current currencies, a new model will have to be agreed upon by many parties, with the rules of engagement clearly laid out before it becomes mainstream.
Justmy 5.5 cents (I included GST).

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Opportunity for whom,?
The depositor of the cash, the guvmint, the financial institution or the online scammers?? stun.gif

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

If you go back to the initial stages of the GFC, there some complications with accounts.
There was a limit to the amount of withdrawals for some funds, some balk accounts, and limits on how much the govt would guarantee bank deposits with the big four (thinkl from memory it was up to 1 mill).
It would be prudent to look at putting money into multiple accounts to with multiple institutions to spread the risk.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

So, overnight we have S & P down 12% , Dow down 13% , NASDAQ Down 12% , FTSE down 4% , Dax down 5.3%.
Oz opens up in the green and is up 1.4%.
So is this the deceased feline rebound, or is OZ leading the recovery???
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

So Plastic, have you read " Bull by the Horns", by former head of the FDIC , Sheila Blair??
Its all about the corruption at Citi Bank.
A damn good read, and scary if even only half of it is true.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 07:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Just to add to the woes, I note that Corporate debt in the US in 2020 that must be refinanced(or defaulted??) is just swhy of 800 Billion dollars.
Indeed, over the next five years the total corporate debt that needs to be rolled over is a measly 4 trillion. ( Source ).
Wonder how that will go in the unfolding environment.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 06:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And now silver is really hitting the skids.
Below 13 bucks.
From the Feb 24 high of 18.50 odd, its has fallen by 22%.
Gold in AUD has fallen from a high of 28 to a tad over 20.
Don't really know why its fallen so much, but given the level of trades on the paper derivitive market, I have my suspicions.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

You obviously were not reading your Latin Quia Hodie too closely ad ludum. .
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 04:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Some, swuch as Zero Hedge see the figures in a less than attractive light.


QUOTE
While it may not be a surprise to too many people in the real world that Chinese macro-economic data for February was a disaster, it appears it was a massive shock to analysts and economists who forecast this data.

Chinese Retail Sales crashed 20.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop on record and four times worse than the -4.0% expectation

Chinese Industrial Production collapsed 13.5% YTD YOY - the first annual drop on record and more than four times worse than the -3.0% expectation

Fixed Asset Investment plunged 24.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop and more than twelve times worse than the expected 2.% contraction.

And to go with those stunning numbers, Property Investment puked 16.3% YTD YoY and the Surveyed Jobless Rate exploded to a record 6.2%.

The retail collapse was across the board - restaurants and catering down 43.1%, clothing down 30.9%, jewelry down 41.1% are some of the bigger drops.


Its raw figures are a lesson in itself, but the bigger lesson is just how useless are analysts and economists and other self proclaimed experts.
Missed the figures by wide margin.
Put more weight on those who tell what happened, rather than those who have an opinion on what might happen.
Given that China is still not in full swing, March figures are likely to be little better than that of February.
The real test will come when some counties give more than a passing thought to the Trump playbook and give some serious though to repatriating at least some of their manufacturing/production closer to home, rather than relying on or being beholden to the Chinese.

Mick


  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 03:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

What I have learned from the past is that you never know the market is turned around until well after the event.
Takes more than one day's rise- beware the recently passed feline rebound.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Bought some more SLR, down 30% from its high, still producing gold at 1300 an ounc AISC, (if diesel drops, that figure may go a bit lower).
Gold still holding above $2500 ounce, so even with some forward hedging at 1900, there is nice profits to be made.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Hmm, that went really well.
Suspended from school by the headmaster for not submitting its homework.
As if life isn't bad enough as it is!.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 08:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

and now on the opening this morning, the AUD HAS fallen 100 points from the overnight 62.47 to 61.23, and gold is up 20.
Gold is still above 2500 in AUD terms.
Can't see why those goldies won't have some sort of rally.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 07:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

It was only dec 12 last year I said

QUOTE
QUOTE
So, the FEd says rates are staying where they are, and ;ottle chance of them moving in 2020.
So what happens, the USD falls 1% against the AUD, gold and silver both up, and the DOW up by a few cents.
One assumes the market expected another rate cut, and don't look like getting one any time soon.


We hasve already had one emergency cut this month, and last night we get another from ABC News

QUOTE
The US Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates by a full percentage point to nearly zero as it aims to help the economy withstand the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

The move puts the benchmark US interest rate in a range of 0 to 0.25 per cent, effectively bringing it to zero.

The Fed also said it was re-starting "quantitative easing," in a bid to get money flowing again in markets and the broader economy.

The Fed vowed to "use its full range of tools" to support the economy and the "smooth functioning of markets".

"In light of these [coronavirus] developments, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 0 to 1/4 percent," the Fed said in a statement.

The Australian dollar fell to 62.47 US cents after the announcement, which is the second emergency rate cut this month.


I think the ABC actually meant to say rose to 62.47 cents.
Just a small error.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

According to the ABC News

QUOTE
Satellite images appear to show evidence of mass burial pits in Iran to accommodate a growing number of deaths from the coronavirus outbreak, as experts question Iran's official death toll.

The Iranian Government has reported 429 deaths and 10,075 confirmed cases
Videos have been shared on social media showing body bags lined up in a morgue and locals have told the ABC they believe the death toll is much higher than the Government admits
A deputy prosecutor says "false" or unauthorised social media footage of the outbreak inside the country is prohibited
A series of images showing the excavation of a new section of graveyard in the city of Qom — the epicentre of Iran's COVID-19 outbreak — that began around February 21, just two days after Iran reported its first cases of coronavirus, were first published by the New York Times.

The images, provided to the Times by US space technology company Maxar, show what appear to be new rows of graves within the city's largest cemetery and increased activity around the new site.

We first discovered mass grave were being built in #Iran via satellite imagery and then tracked how Iran got to this boiling point with the #coronavirus.
Dalton Bennett, a reporter with the Washington Post's investigative unit, tweeted that analysis from Maxar revealed "the size of the new trenches and the speed with which they were excavated together mark a clear departure from past burial practices involving individual and family plots at the site".


This is an interesting development in that the general consensus is that the CV mainly kills the elderly or people with already compromised immune systems.
Iran is a country with very young population, its median age is just under 30.
A cynic might suggest that its a good way for the regime to get rid of unwanted opponents.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The way planes are being grounded, there will be nothing in the air to be monitored.
Makes Warren Buffets decision to invest heavily in airlines not such a great move.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 07:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Silver down to 14.6
This is despite the US mint running out of physical silver to print silver dollars. (see lack of coins )
The general public is rushing to by the physical at the same time the commercials are using paper derivatives to smash its price.
The gold /silver ratio well above 100 now after spending 10 years hovering between 60 and 80.
Not that there is an intrinsic "correct" value to the ratio, its just an artificial construct that shows what historically happens.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 05:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Bitcoin stumbled below 4k overnight then rebounded above 5k almost immediately.
Obviously 4k is where the low is.
Not sure where the high is.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 04:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Irony no 2 from The Leaders

[quote]
Italy is one of those countries that have been hit the hardest by coronavirus. More than 12,000 patients have been registered and out of these 827 have died.

The European nation is currently on lockdown and during this time Pornhub has made its premium service free for Italians for a month.

The site shared a press release today, stating that it will donate all the earnings from the Modelhub platform to help Italy cope with the coronavirus outbreak.

The statement read, “Forza Italia, We love you! PornHub has decided to donate its percentage revenue from the ModelHub platform from March to help Italy during the outbreak. To help you during these weeks at home, for the whole months you can access PornHub Premium free of charge, with no need for using your credit card.”
[/quote

Who says nothing good ever comes of a disaster!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 03:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Gold in AUD is still above $2500 per ounce.
Yet some gold stocks that produced were absolutely hammered.
Doesn't make a lot of sense.
SBM now trading at a PE below 7.6 and forward p/e of 9.

Mick.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Nabtrade up again and doing all the things it should.
Unfortunately, could not get some of the low trades completed this morning, but perhaps market will fall further next week.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

People who use online brokers such as comsec, etrade etc, are you having difficulty making trades??
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

NABTRADE is having difficulties as people pile in to trade.
Can't do much this morning holdings are not showing, account balances not showing.
At least I can get price on a single code.
.Was similar for a while yesterday.
Just have to let the panic stricken do their stuff, then reassess.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Irony no 1. from ZH

QUOTE
Today in "not the Onion" news, a roundtable that was set up by the Council on Foreign Relations specifically to talk about "Doing Business Under Coronavirus" has been cancelled - due to the coronavirus. The meeting was scheduled for Friday of this week and it was cancelled due to the spread of the infection in NYC.

Though we have to say, if they didn't see this coming, we're not sure the roundtable would have held much value to begin with.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 08:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Luv this quote EB

QUOTE
DYOR as always. don't panic. i leant one thing during GFC -------if world comes to the end, then money is useless .


Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Nah EB, we haven't hit full blown panic yet. Gold has been sold down for the last 4 sessions at least.
When the house prices, auctions etc start to fall, THEN we will have hit full blown panic.
Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From todays Australian


QUOTE
Of all the countries of the eurozone, there is no other which has suffered as much from adopting the common European currency as Italy.

Italy’s business model prior to the Euro had depended on constant devaluations of its old currency, the Lira.

Once that safety valve was removed, Italy needed to increase its productivity in line with its more competitive European neighbours. It didn’t.

Instead, it enjoyed the boost of lower interest rates as it gradually allowed its competitiveness to erode. And that coincided with continued political instability.

Banks were enabled to access cheap, fresh money from the European Central Bank (ECB) so they could purchase Italian government bonds and pocket the interest rate difference. That way, the ECB kept both the Italian banks and the Italian government afloat.

Only occasionally were ECB policies not enough and Italian banks like Banca Monte dei Paschi or Banca Popolare di Bari had to be bailed out. Other European banks are also major investors in Italian bonds, led by the French

The Italian government benefited from ECB support and became one of the most indebted governments in the world. But the ECB never guaranteed Italian bonds and was a critic of its budgetary policies.

Yet because of the ECB’s support - until the slump in Italian bond prices during last few days - 10-year Italian government bonds have been trading on a yield around 1 per cent.

That ECB support masked the fact that Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio kept going up and has hovered around 135 percent since 2015.

The lifesaver of the Italian economy was tourism, which accounts for 14 per cent of GDP and until the crisis was practically the only industry still growing.

This year tourism is now likely to collapse completely. But that is just the beginning. Not only will that cause GDP to collapse, but government spending will necessarily increase substantially as a result of the crisis.

For 2020, Italy had originally projected a deficit of just above 2 per cent of GDP (after much haggling with the EU Commission).

But you can insert your own number now, because no-one can honestly estimate what government response the coronavirus will trigger. So we have GDP plunging as a result of the tourism collapse and spending skyrocketing.

It is plausible that by the end of this year we will see Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratios going past 150 per cent. But it gets worse.

What worse looks like

Last year, the Banca d’Italia estimated that around 7 to 8 percent of Italian companies were “zombie firms”: companies that are teetering on bankruptcy but are kept alive by low interest rates.

A severe Italian recession will not only destroy many of the zombie firms but will savage those Italian banks that gave them credit.

In this scenario, Italy would be bankrupt. Just as Greece was a decade ago. But Italy is several times larger than Greece and those European countries that would need to bail out Italy will be busy dealing with their own coronavirus casualties.

If Italy fails it will be a catastrophe not just for Italy. It maybe be the end of the Euro as Europe’s currency. The world will see a return to the euro crisis of a decade ago except that it will be much more severe.

Hartwich concludes this way: “I have been covering the euro crisis for a decade now for various publications. But I have never seen a situation as dramatic as Italy’s today. The only reason why you may not have read about the new coronavirus-induced Italian euro crisis just yet is that there are so many other coronavirus-induced crises around.

“As for my Italian friends, I am afraid I have to finish with a quote from your national poet, Dante Alighieri: Lasciate ogni speranza voi ch′entrate. (Abandon hope, all ye who enter). This will not end well”


other headlines re Italy italy2 and italy 3

Could get a lot messier yet.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I guess Iranian Islamic scholars don't know about, much less believe in Karma, but thats what this one got.

From Summit news
QUOTE
Back in February, Hadi Al-Modarresi, who is based in Iran, said that the coronavirus outbreak was “undoubtedly an act of Allah that is divine punishment against the Chinese for their treatment, mockery, and disrespect towards Muslims and Islam,” reported MEMRI-TV.

“It is obvious that the spread of this virus is an act of Allah. How do we know this? The spread of the coronavirus began in China, an ancient and vast country, the population of which makes up one seventh of humanity,” said Al-Modarresi.

“More than a billion people live in that country. The authorities in that country are tyrannical and they laid siege to more than a million Muslims and placed them under house arrest. The journalists in that country began to mock the niqab of Muslim women and they forced Muslim men to eat pork and drink wine. Allah sent a disease upon them and this disease laid siege to 40 million [Chinese people]. The same niqab that they mocked has been forced upon them, both men and women, by Allah, by means of the state authorities and officials,” he added.

It is now being reported that Al-Modarresi has contracted coronavirus, meaning that Allah must obviously be punishing him for wrongdoing.

The scholar tweeted to his almost 1 million followers with a prayer to Muhammad and the revelation that “The health of His Eminence is in a marked improvement.”


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 11:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

AUD v USD currently 6474.
Now firmly below 65.
Don't know how far it will fall, but i can't see anything on the horizon that will cause sentiment to rise in relation to the AUD.
Still surprised that PM's have not really broken out.
But the further this crash/correction/rebalancing goes on, the bigger the eventual rise will be.
No overseas trips for us this year, what with corona Virus, falling AIUD, and my SMSF falling every day.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 08:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

AUD V USD now down to the 64 handle.
Been a while since we were down in that territory.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Howdy Eb,
Unlike most Asian families, older people are seen as a bit of a burden.
The kids/ grandkids are waiting for the old folks to pass on so they get their oldies assets passed on.
For every hard luck story on Tv where family members complain about lack of care, there are a hundred others where the family bicker over the costs of what little service is provided.
When my wife owned a pharmacy, she did a lot of webster packs and home medication reviews, she cane across the greedy side of people.
There were descendants who would argue over a pack of tissues provided for the residents.
So while there is continual pressure on the homes by the uncaring greedy bastards, nothing will change.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 09:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

So gold is now above 2500 in AUD.
But still the gold stocks get trashed like all the rest.
When ya margin calls, it shouts.
Bought into ALK, RMS, SBM and EVN.
All producers, all making good money.
Some even pay a dividend!.
SLR didn't fall as afr as some of the others, have not had my low ball order triggered.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Bought in to IVC this morning.
Their business will not slow down, on the contrary there will be a spike in business courtesy of coronavirus.
Has fallen sharply with the big sell off, so reckon its got some value/
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 8 2020, 09:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And a massive crowd of 84,000!
Atmosphere was great, even watching on TV.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 8 2020, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

There is so much real data out there to show that the world has become very ugly, very quickly.
From Trading economics
Since the beginning of the year, crude oil down 26%, Brent down 31% , Natural gas down by 36% pterol down by 23%, heating oil down by 30%, wool down by 22%, propane down 50% and a few others.
On the up side, wheat is up by 20% palm oil by 28% , rice by 22%, cocoa by 22% beef is up by 32%, poultry by 13%, lean hogs by 38% coffee by 10%.
So, as we can see, foodstuffs getting more expensive, the rest tanking.
A while ago, I posted how the market for trucks had stalled. Well now things have only got worse. According to Wolf street
QUOTE
And new orders for trucks have essentially collapsed, which bodes ill for revenues going forward. These orders may be for units that have been sold to a specific customer, such as a trucking company, or for units built for dealer inventory to be sold eventually to a customer. These are the net orders (new orders minus cancellations) in Q1, and only school buses did well:

Class 8 trucks: -83% to 2,600 units (14,900 a year ago)
Class 6 and 7 medium-duty trucks: -72% to 3,200 (11,600 a year ago)
School buses: +27% to 4,200 (3,300 a year ago)
And Navistar’s order backlog has plunged as well:

Class 8 trucks: -56% to 13,800 units.
Class 6 and 7 trucks: -63% to 7,100 units
School buses: +34% to 4,300 units.


The port of Los aAngeles is suffering

QUOTE
As the coronavirus grinds the world's economy to a halt, and supply-chains break, many of the key components of US commerce - like port traffic - are starting to feel the virus' ugly effects. For instance, year over year volume at the Port of Los Angeles - the busiest seaport not only in the US but in the entire Western hemisphere - is expected to plunge 15% in the first quarter as a result of the outbreak.

Executive Director Gene Seroka told American Shipper: "Forty vessel sailings have been canceled from Asia, mainly China, to the Port of Los Angeles from Feb. 11 through April 1. Those 40 vessel cancellations would represent nearly 25% of our normal traffic at the Port of Los Angeles."

He continued: “There are a number of revenue streams that are floating here: the goods themselves, the ocean freight, the business on the docks, truck and warehouse communities. This will be substantial and I’ve given guidance to the marketplace that for the first quarter of 2020, the Port of Los Angeles volume will be down 15% year-on-year.”

And the airlines have not been immune.

Estimated hit to global air passenger revenues quadruples to $113 billion. Stocks of top-seven US airlines plunged 30% in 15 trading days, after getting massacred Friday.
The only bright spot is the drop in Jet fuel prices.

I spent the last week in Mackay. Flew from melbourne to mackay via Brisbane.
I have never seen terminals so quiet. Normally on Satudays the joint is bursting. Not these past two weekends.

Mick






  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 6 2020, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

So Nip, whats the chance of us ever having a thread entitled “Banks behaving responsibly”?
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 5 2020, 07:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Tesla may have more pressing problems than a ramped startup.
From Zerhedge

QUOTE
If Tesla was truly a story about actual economics - you know, things like demand and production - we might expect the fact that registrations are plunging to have an effect on the company's stock price.

But, as it goes, the company's stock is and has been wholly disconnected from reality, which is why at the stock sits currently with a $700 handle, we're certain it won't be phased by the fact that registrations have plunged in top European markets.

For instance, Tesla recorded only 83 new cars in Norway last month, comparing to 1,016 vehicles last year. In the Netherlands, registrations also plunged, down 68% to 155 units, according to Bloomberg.


It is not a good look for Tesla, as these are two of the only four countries that Tesla breaks out revenue for on a quarterly basis. For the first two months of the year (and first 66% of the first quarter), registrations were down 77% and 42% in Norway and the Netherlands - and that was against easy comps. The Model 3 was only just starting to get underway with sales in early 2019.

But the falling sales in Europe will make it tough to cushion any blow not only in the U.S., but in China, where coronavirus has ravaged the country and auto sales, in general, are down between 80% and 90% for February. This hasn't stopped Tesla's stock from holding a bid in the $600 to $700 range, even despite the market's recent sell off on coronavirus fears.

For now, the $120 billion cash incinerating company remains in tact.


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 06:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Most countries are printing their currency like toilet paper.
And they have negative interest rates. The US has , for the moment, a small positive rate.
And besides, if the USD was not the currency of trade, what would it be replaced with?
The yuan /renmimbi? Not likely in this climate. The yen , euro, uk pound?
None of them are great contenders, and not well trusted.
Perhaps the swiss frank could be the one.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Tlg a lone green in a sea of red.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The reserves and resources upgrade after the drilling program will struggle make any difference.
Modest increase in both, but in this climate, you could strike a pure gold reef and still trashed.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And now down to .6485
Normally when you see the AUD falling like that you must start to incorporate inflationary trends as the billions of dollars of overseas junk we buy becomes more expensive.
But thse are not normal times.
Most pundits (including the currency traders are expecting a rate cut this month with more to floow.
Tough if you are/were planning an overseas holiday.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2020, 08:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Inequalitry you ask???
From Zero Hedge

QUOTE
Bernie Sanders appears on track to clinch the Democratic nomination to the consternation of the DNC, and every American voter who abhors his vision of a 'Democratic socialist' society has been reflecting on the successes and failures of capitalism. Of course, over the past ten years, there's no question that economic inequality has widened, if only because the Federal Reserve and the rest of the central banks embarked on an unprecedented experimented in loose monetary policy.

Now, as LearnBonds pointed out in a recent report, the cumulative wealth of the world's ten richest people is now larger than the aggregate GDP of 85 impoverished countries.

According to IMF figures for 2019 released back in October, the poorest 85 countries have a combined GDP of $813 billion. For comparison, by LB's count, the net worth of the world's 10 wealthiest individuals is $858.1 billion.Here's another example:There isn't a single African country that has a higher GDP when compared to the cumulative wealth of the top ten richest people. Nigeria, which has Africa’s highest GDP of $446.543 billion, amounts to about half of the net worth of the top ten wealthiest.Of course, the one thing Bernie Sanders' supporters always seem to leave out during their tirades about evil billionaires is that most of this wealth isn't real. It's not like they have a giant vault filled with dabloons that they can swim in like Scrooge McDuck. Jeff Bezos, for example, holds like 99% of his wealth in Amazon stock. If something were ever to happen to Amazon, like - god forbid - Microsoft overtaking it as the top provider of cloud computing services, Bezos' net worth will take a huge nosedive.

Millions of savers and retirees would also get hurt as well, as the value of much of their equity index holdings would vanish.

Of course, after this week, perhaps the elitest of the elites' wealth is a little lower.

And who are these mega rich.
Bezos, happily shutdown 90% of the stores in the world.
Bernard Arnoualt -biggest flogger of plonk and overpriced fashion crap.
Bill Gates - killed off the competition so only microsfot products get sold/
Warren Buffet. never produced a single thing in his life.
Amancio Ortega, a spanish fashion mogul
Mark Zuckerberg - part of thje team that created the most evil and misused piece of software on the planet
Larry Ellison, another software designer, where oracle is the only thing in common with Warren Buffett
Carlos Slim, a mexican cartel specialist with impeccable political connections
Larry Page, another corrupt software engineer who produced the second most evil piece of software on the planet.
and Finally Mukesh Ambani, who made is fortune in oil and gas.

Not a single female in the list.Not a single Asian.

So much for diversity, both gender and ethnicity.,

Can't see anything improving any time soon.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 07:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

a couple of items made me choke on my weeties this morning

According to something called 1B Times,
see virus patient shot dead

A
QUOTE
few weeks ago, there were whispers that one of the first coronavirus patients in the country was brutally killed by the regime after escaping from a (probably unimaginably brutal) quarantine. Moreover, according to the rumor, he was executed via the traditional North Korean punishment of extirpating criminals by shooting them with an anti-aircraft slug.

and then theres this fromZerohedge

QUOTE
Rapper Zuby was suspended by Twitter for tweeting “Ok dude” at a woman who calls herself the ‘Pronoun Enforcer’ and the temporary ban was celebrated by the left-wing activist.The person who reported Zuby, a Twitter user called Emily Gorcenski who goes by the handle ‘Pronoun Enforcer’, then claimed credit for the suspension, tweeting, “Lol misogynist down. Pronouns enforced.”

Gorcenski had apparently claimed that she slept with more women than Zuby.Zuby was suspended despite “dude” being a word so commonly used that it can apply to women as well as men.

“Does twitter expect us to do gender checks of the people we respond to? Are we not allowed to use blanket terms like “guys” or “dude”?” asked Robby Starbuck.
Others tweeted the hashtag #FreeZuby to draw attention to the absurdity of the ban.

Zuby has been a target for LGBT outrage mobs ever since he announced that he identified as a woman in order to break all the women’s weightlifting records.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 07:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Sprotty, if you wern't having a crack, why use the term deniers at all??
Was it labelled at me, who posted the original quote, or was it labelled at the person/website from which I provided the data.
And what exactly are you accusing the "deniers" of denying? Global Warming? The anthropogenic part?The Paris accord? The green new deal?
Deniers has holocaustic links, which is why its use is so antagonistic.
its a pejorative word used by people in the hope of "winning an argument"
In the same way that you cannot have a discussion on the LGBTIQ issue without being labelled a homophobe, or discussing terorrism without being an Islamahobe, or problems with immigration without being labelled a xenophobe.
If you want to bolster the AGW argument, address the original facts.
The article I put up is about data, not about opinions, not modelling, not worst case scenarios etc.
Its reproducible. Anyone can get hold of the raw data and reproduce the obvious changes.
Now thats science, the rest is software progaming..
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 07:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Smith and warner starred in Sth Africa in a 2-1 T20 series win.
Obviously the Saffer crowd must have gone easy on them.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 07:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And to top it off, new car sales have plummeted in USA, China, and here in OZ.
us Here

AUS HERE

and in ChinaHERE
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 06:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The BDI has recovered a little since the last post.
However, that does not mean that the freight industry is not in deep trouble.
FromWC

QUOTE
It Gets Surprisingly Ugly: US Freight Shipments Plunge 9.4%, Steepest since 2009
But the coronavirus impact has not been felt yet; that will come later.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Shipment volume in the US by truck, rail, air, and barge plunged 9.4% in January 2020 compared to the already weak January a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. It was the 14th month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the steepest since October 2009, during the Financial Crisis:
he Cass Freight Index tracks shipment volume of consumer goods and industrial products and supplies by all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – but it does not track bulk commodities, such as grains or coal.

In December, when the index had plunged 7.4% year-over-year, the steepest drop since November 2009, the calendar got blamed because Christmas fell on a Wednesday, as it does regularly. In January, the year-over-year drop of 9.4% was even worse, from an even weaker month a year earlier, and this time, there is no calendar to blame.
December was the month when Celadon Group, with about 3,000 drivers and about 2,700 tractors, shut down — the largest truckload carrier ever to file for bankruptcy in US history, which came on top of hundreds of mostly smaller trucking companies that had also shut down in 2019.

January was the month when barge operator American Commercial Lines, with 3,500 barges mostly on the Mississippi River, ran aground, so to speak. After having worked out a deal with its lenders in January, it announced at the beginning of February that it would file for a “prepackaged” bankruptcy.

January was also the month when two of the largest US railroads – CSX and Union Pacific – reported terrible results, including dropping revenues and massive layoffs on broad-based weakness in the transportation business.

Rail traffic in January offered no respite from the miserable year 2019: Carloads dropped 5.9% compared to January last year; and containers and trailers fell 5.4%, according to the Association of American Railroads, “reflecting continued softness in manufacturing and global economic weakness made worse by trade uncertainties.”

The 9.4% January plunge in the Cass Freight Index for shipments pushed it below the January 2018 level and near the January 2017 level. The stacked chart – each year is a colored line – shows the large seasonality of the freight business. January is always a low point. But this January, represented by the big red square near the left bottom of the chart, was particularly weak. The top black line represents historic boom-year 2018. The green line represents down-year 2019, which deteriorated relative to other years as the year progressed:



Freight expenditures drop below January 2018.
This data is not based on sentiment surveys but on actual freight invoices. Cass derives this data from freight invoices paid on behalf of its clients ($28 billion in freight bills in 2018), representing a large sample of the actual shipments and payments in the US by numerous companies across many sectors.

In January, the Cass index for expenditures – reflecting how much shippers, such as retailers and manufacturers, spent on transportation costs, including on fuel surcharges – dropped 8% year-over-year, after having dropped 6.2% in December. It was the sixth month in a row of year-over-year declines:


It is only based on US figures, but i can't imagine any other country will be fairing any better.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Well, the updated reserves and mine life is out.
And I have been dudded again.
Only on 20 December when the company announced a new CEO and MD, they were still suggesting full year guidance in the range of 150,000 to 177,000 ounces at an AIC of 1499 to 1500..
Now its been revised downward to 138,000 to 144,000 at an AISC of 1550 - 1650.
And to top it off, production falls for the next three years then stabilises in the fourth.
They are effectively shutting down Westraia for three years while they work out a new and exciting way to mine.
And finally, the stock will stay in a trading halt till the end of march (at leats) while they work on a recapitalisation of the company.
Total Mineral Resources reduced by 40% from 3.5Moz to 2.1Moz (including 52% reduction at
Westralia from 1.5Moz to 0.7Moz).
Total Inferred Mineral Resources reduced from 1.1Moz to 0.6Moz, including 50% reduction at
Westralia from 528,000oz to 266,000oz

In July last year, they released a LOM report that had 1.1. million ounces of gold over next 8 years at an AISC of 1280 to 1380 per ounce, just from Mt morgan alone.
The first five years of the plan 170,000 ounces of gold per year.
At the end of September 2019, debt was 95 mill.
Cash on hand at the end of September was $54million
So what happened to drastically reduce production?
What changed that caused them to want to restructure debt when they cou;d have paid ha;f it off with cash reserves?
Won't answer their phone today when i rang to question whether a few of the bone heads might consider their position.
Dacian is now a dog, and it has been rolling in something smelly.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 01:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Damn, didnt get below 80 cents, now has recovered.
Can't win em all.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

ALKJ . like all the goldies has been hammered over the past few days after ru8nning ahead big time.
ALK released its half yearly report, which shows everything doen.
It was not unexpected, as they forshadowed the slow down due to switch from open cut to underground mining,
But it stil got hammered again today.
Looking to pick some up below 80 cents.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 07:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Here is a perfectly good example why I have some measure of distrust in relation to the "the world is hotta than evahhh" meme.

From Jo Nova
QUOTE
If the Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian Climate Observation Reference Network (ACORN) accurately corrects historic temperature observations, it means that Marble Bar in the north of WA can no longer boast it had a world record heatwave in 1923/24.

Marble Bar has been world famous for decades because of the 160 consecutive days in which it recorded maxima at or above 37.8C (100F or a “century” in the Fahrenheit days).

The Marble Bar thermometer in a Stevenson screen topped 100F every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, and nowhere else on earth is known to have recorded 160 century days in a row without a break.

Marble Bar is now a runner-up
The BoM website used to have a Climate Education page explaining Marble Bar’s heatwave record. The National Library of Australia considered it to be of national significance and has archived it for posterity.

In 2020, the BoM website still has a page that explains: Marble Bar, in the Pilbara, holds the Australian record for the longest sequence of days over the old century mark (100°F or 37.8°C). This occurred during the period from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924 when the maximum temperature equalled or exceeded 100°F for 160 days in a row.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics acknowledges the world record and Australians have heard about the Marble Bar heatwave record for many decades :



QUOTE
Temperature dataset downloads from the BoM website show that ACORN has cooled 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924 so much that the Pilbara town can no longer boast that it had a world record 160 consecutive days above 37.8C.

ACORN 2, which is described as a world-class homogenisation network, has reduced the 160 days to just 128 – from 1 November 1923 to 7 March 1924.

From 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, the dates during which the 160 days of 100 or more were recorded, there’s now 153 days at or above 100F.

And the winner is … America
Wikipedia’s Death Valley page states that “The greatest number of consecutive days with a maximum temperature of 100 °F (38 °C) or above was 154 days in the summer of 2001.” This data is confirmed by the American Meteorological Society, which also references 134 consecutive days at Furnace Creek in Death Valley that were above above 37.8C during the summer of 1974.

154 days is less than 160 days but a lot more than 128 days, so it seems that America now holds the world record heatwave of consecutive 37.8C+ days at Death Valley – thanks to ACORN.

On its archived Climate Education page, the BoM states that “The highest temperature recorded during the record spell was 47.5°C on 18 January 1924.”

This is correct in the original RAW temperature dataset (see below), but ACORN 2 cools 18 January 1924 to 47.3C.

An Excel spreadsheet (499kb) with columns of daily maximum temperatures at Marble Bar from October 1923 to April 1924 in ACORN 1, ACORN 2 and RAW can be downloaded here.

Daily cooling adjustments
BoM temperature adjustments to ACORN weather stations have cooled Australia’s history of very hot days (see No more extreme hot days in Australia than 100 years ago and The Australian Bureau of Met hides 50 years of very hot days).

Politicians and climate change skeptics are often scorned for suggesting that the BoM adjusts temperature data to fit a global warming agenda or to cool the past (e.g. Media Watch), and in late 2019 SBS News reported that the bureau denied it has rewritten Australia’s climate record.



No explanation, no press release.
How many other temperatures have been surreptitiously changed?

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Everything bar the VIX is down.
Pm's especially Silver were crunched overnight, reflected in all my gold stocks down today and yesterday.
Some of them down 15% from recent highs, perhaps a bit oversold.
Waiting for a signal to add to my gold stocks.
Mici
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

GAL is my only green stock for the day in a sea of red.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Au Contraire, my wife says her facemasks stop her skin from drying out.
I had to leave the room then, for fear of saying something smart that I would have severely regretted within seconds.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 09:34 AM


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Posts: 2,248

Was reaing an article about facemasks, and how producers of facemasks outside China and Japan are being run off their feet as they ramp up production.
From NY Times
QUOTE
ANGERS, France — The relentless whir of machines echoing across a cavernous French factory floor this week is an unexpected result of the deadly virus that has nearly paralyzed cities in China and other parts of Asia. The company, Kolmi Hopen, happens to make an item that is suddenly one of the world’s hottest commodities: the medical face mask.

The factory, in Angers, typically makes around 170 million masks a year, but in the last week orders arrived for a staggering half a billion, flooding the sales department’s inboxes at the rate of one every two minutes. Kolmi Hopen is racing to hire more workers to keep the machines running 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

“We’re making masks as fast as we can,” said Guillaume Laverdure, the chief operating officer of Kolmi Hopen’s parent company, Canada-based Medicom, as forklift drivers moved boxes of freshly finished masks into trucks.
Most of the world’s face masks are made in China and Taiwan. But factories there, including ones run by Medicom, have been forced to temporarily halt exports to comply with government demands to reserve them for frantic residents.

On Monday, the Chinese government, conceding that it was in urgent need of medical masks and other protective gear, said it would begin importing them from Europe, Japan and the United States to help make up for the shortfall.

It has made the Kolmi Hopen outpost in western France an unlikely hot spot. Phones at the factory have been ringing off the hook as medical supply buyers scour the globe for mask makers.


So nI thought I would google facemasks made in OZ.
And what did I get??
Hundreds of sites for makeup creams!

At least some of them were organic.

mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 02:43 PM


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Posts: 2,248

Bought back into LKE today, mainly because it may well spike when the 20,000 litre brine test procedure is completed in a few weeks, and its 20% below my lat sell price..
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 02:17 PM


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Posts: 2,248

I actually called DCN today to try to find some info.
According to DCN, the mine life and reserves recalcs require the analysis of a lot of data for multiple sites.
Given its now over three weeks, it must be a hell of a lot of data, and they must be doing it on an abbacus.
The girl who answered had the spiel well rehearsed, I suspect i was not the first to query it.
Said the announcement would be out this week.
Pity it missed the run up in gold price and subsequent gold stock spikes.
It had better be a big increase in resources and mine life.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 11:43 AM


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Posts: 2,248

Last nights DOW meltdown negated in one swoop all of the gains for 2020.
Now thats a correction.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 09:18 AM


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Posts: 2,248

Ouch, TLG hit by 12% fall.
And until supply chains get some sense of oder after the Cv scares, there will be further carnage.
When the dust settles will be some buying opportunities.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 09:15 AM


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Posts: 2,248

Dow down 1000 ponts overnight.Not good for the big banks and trading houses.

Looks like the plunge Protection team have stepped in and started to crunch gold.
Will take some profits today and wait.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 08:32 AM


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Posts: 2,248

The problems still exist.
The salts are highly corrosive, regardless of the use.
The containment issues still apply.
There are still issues with the high freezing point of salts.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 06:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I don't know how accurate the following is, as i am not a Physicist, merely an engineer.
Some of it makes sense to me.
QUOTE
Molten salts are corrosive, and there is not much data on nuclear suitable materials (low neutron absorption, low activation, low neutron induced damage/embrittlement) for the long life times which would be needed for such a reactor.

Maintenance is difficult because the salts will freeze at room temperatures, therefore all maintenance has to be performed with the system at operating temperature.

High freezing point of the salt makes mitigation of certain accidents difficult - e.g. a main steam line break will lead to rapid cooling of the salt in the steam generator, potentially freezing up the steam generator and preventing proper cooling of the core.

If you want to go for the even more radical idea of having a fuel dissolved in the molten salt, then you have even more major problems.

The fuel salt is exceedingly radioactive, which makes any kind of maintenance on the primary circuit near impossible. In a solid fuel reactor a ruptured fuel rod isn't a major problem - the coolant can be filtered to remove the contaminants, which are present at a low level, and the failed rod removed. In a fuel salt reactor, just one drop of fuel salt leaking from a valve or pump seal, will be so radioactive, that you won't be able to send workers within 50 feet of the valve, even if you drain and flush the whole reactor first.

The fuel salt contains a soup of dozens of fission product elements. This is a nightmare for corrosion reasons, because you can't control the fuel composition. Different products can plate out on surfaces (mainly metals like platinum, rhodium, gold, etc.) and this can mess up clearances on valves and pumps. Some products like indium attack structural metals by alloying with them (similar to gallium or mercury).

The epithermal neutron spectrum in this type of reactor is much more damaging to moderator and core materials than the thermal spectrum of LWRs - there are even fewer validated materials available which can be used in this environment.

Radiation in the salt causes fluorine to be produced by radiolysis, and this can volatilize uranium and plutonium, and these distilled enriched isotopes, can precipitate outside of the reactor within the plant, and are a risk of criticality accident (in fact, there was nearly a catastrophic criticality accident during the decomissioning of the oak ridge MSRE where near-weapons grade uranium had distilled off and condensed in a filter bank).

All these problems are potentially solvable, apart possibly from the materials one, but these are very difficult engineering challenges. There are potentially other designs which are more promising for space flight.

One example is a combined solid-fuel, solid moderator, highly reflected kilowatt scale reactor. In this design the core is a solid matrix of uranium metal and zirconium hydride moderator, surrounded by a beryllium or zirconium hydride reflector. This design will operate at low power densities, which can be passively cooled using simple heatpipes similar to RTGs. It has an exceptionally strong negative temperature coefficient, so is self controlling in the event of a change in heat demand (e.g. failure of a heatpipe), without the need to use control rods for power control, only for shutdown. As a the fuel is a solid matrix, there are no corrosion concerns and no leak concerns. The low power density and high thermal conductivity of the fuel matrix mean that partial meltdown is precluded. Passive radiators can protect against decay heat and possibly also incomplete shutdown.


Full discussion HERE

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 05:14 PM


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Posts: 2,248

After OZ demolished NZ in three tests, India have lost the first test to NZ by 10 wickets inside 4 days.
I guess the Indians can have an off day, but four in a row??
Be interesting to see what happens in the second test.
Prior to this one, NZ were sitting sixth on the ICC test championship, with India well on top.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 03:11 PM


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Posts: 2,248

Got a speeding ticket from Headmaster.
Headmaster seems pretty selective as to who he gives speeding tickets.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 01:46 PM


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Posts: 2,248

Silver in AUD is now above $28.00
Thought SVL may have gone for a ride on the back of the silver [rice riss, but seems stuck below 11.
Happy to wait for the next surge.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 09:51 AM


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Posts: 2,248

PGM on an upswing.
Up to 028 from 008 in a week.
When Palladium started to go, I looked at PGM and ZIM.
The volume for ZIM was so small, it was going to take weeks to get a position.
So I bought some PGM instead.
Some serious buying pressure lined up.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 04:14 PM


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Posts: 2,248

To all those people who insist we have an existential crisis because of ... Climate change.
The Corona Virus is a crisis.
And we can all see in real time exactly what a proper crisis looks like.
You don't need emotive language, models , proxies or consensus science
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From WOP

QUOTE
At 10:52 a.m. yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average which was trading at a level of 29,348, began a bungee-style plunge. By 11:32 a.m. the market landed with a thud at a level of 29,013. Then the stock market began an equally inexplicable climb, closing the day down just 128 points. This is what is known as a “Flash Crash,” a sudden plunge in the market with no reliable explanation. No one on Wall Street has yet to offer a convincing explanation for the plunge. An early attempt to pass it off to worries about the coronavirus was easily dispelled because the news report of rising infections from the virus came much earlier than the plunge in the market.

Our chart research also shows that the plunge was not related to the coronavirus because Procter & Gamble, a component of the Dow which is having serious supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus, didn’t participate in the Flash Crash in any material way.

Goldman Sachs, however, also a component of the Dow, not only participated in the Flash Crash but began its own plunge at the market’s open, recovered somewhat, and then began the Flash Crash at the same time as the Dow – but much more sharply.Why was Goldman selling off yesterday? Because one of its major competitors on Wall Street, Morgan Stanley, had brazenly announced before the market opened that it was using its stock to the tune of $13 billion to buy the discount broker, E*Trade, at a premium of 30 percent to its market value. Goldman Sachs, currently under a criminal probe by the Justice Department for its role in the Malaysia 1MDB bribery and embezzlement scandal, is not likely to be given any green light by the U.S. Department of Justice to expand its footprint. Thus, it is likely to far further behind its competitors – or so the thinking goes.

The underlying math of the Morgan Stanley deal tells the whole story: E*Trade has 5.2 million clients but only $360 billion in assets. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, has just 3 million clients but $2.7 trillion in assets. In other words, Morgan Stanley, like every other major Wall Street firm, caters to the high net worth individual while E*Trade is not so picky.

Most of the big Wall Street banks have been culling their customer ranks by kicking smaller accounts out of their investment advisors’ hands and moving them to a manned phone bank. That’s the kind of disdain that Wall Street firms have for those with less than a high net worth. So why would Morgan Stanley be so desperate that it would buy a discount broker? Because these are desperate times on Wall Street and every major firm is in need of more trades and the ability to show shareholders that its assets under management are increasing – even if they have to overpay to obtain those assets.

Why this Morgan Stanley buyout is of major concern to the average American is that Morgan Stanley is already too big and too dangerous. Morgan Stanley is one of 30 global banks that are known as G-SIBs – Global Systemically Important Banks. That means that they are so big and interconnected to other banks that if they implode they could start a financial contagion like 2008.

In fact, Morgan Stanley would have failed in 2008 except for the secret money feeding tube that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provided to Morgan Stanley for more than two years. According to the audit performed by the Government Accountability Office, the nonpartisan watchdog of Congress, Morgan Stanley received $2.04 trillion in cumulative loans during the financial crisis, second only to the insolvent Citigroup, which received $2.5 trillion. (See chart below.) The GAO report did not cover all of the loan programs. For a full accounting, see the report from the Levy Economics Institute.

Despite its brush with death during the financial crisis, Morgan Stanley was allowed to buy the retail brokerage firm, Smith Barney, from Citigroup after the financial crash, first structured as a joint-venture in 2009 and then a full buyout at a total cost of $13.5 billion in 2013. As of last October, Morgan Stanley said it had 15,553 financial advisors managing its 3 million clients.

That would be enough for any Wall Street firm to properly manage. But Morgan Stanley is far more than a brokerage firm. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Morgan Stanley owns two federally-insured banks. Morgan Stanley Bank, National Association holds $116 billion in deposits while Morgan Stanley Private Bank, N.A. holds another $70 billion in deposits. If Morgan Stanley blows up, the U.S. taxpayer is on the hook for making good on those deposits.

Could Morgan Stanley blow up because it’s already too big to know what all of its far-flung traders are doing? Yes, it could. One of the reasons it needed that $2 trillion cumulative in revolving loans from the Federal Reserve, on top of the $10 billion it received from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), was because one of its traders, Howie Hubler, lost $9 billion, “More than any single trader has ever lost in the history of Wall Street,” according to author and Wall Street veteran Michael Lewis in a 60 Minutes interview.

What happens to these Wall Street behemoths is critical to the financial health of the U.S. economy and the future viability of the United States. If the U.S. had a functioning U.S. Department of Justice, it would reject this proposed buyout of E*Trade by Morgan Stanley because it is already too big and too interconnected to other Wall Street and global banks via its huge derivatives footprint.

To underscore just how interconnected these banks are, the Office of Financial Research (OFR), wrote the following in a February 2015 report:

“The larger the bank, the greater the potential spillover if it defaults; the higher its leverage, the more prone it is to default under stress; and the greater its connectivity index, the greater is the share of the default that cascades onto the banking system. The product of these three factors provides an overall measure of the contagion risk that the bank poses for the financial system.

“Five of the U.S. banks had particularly high contagion index values — Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs.”

According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks, the bank holding companies of those same five banks were sitting on unthinkable levels of derivatives as of September 30, 2019 (the most recent OCC report that’s available). In notional (face amount) of derivatives, JPMorgan Chase held $54.9 trillion; Goldman Sachs Group had $50 trillion; Citigroup held $49.4 trillion; Bank of America held $39.3 trillion while Morgan Stanley sat on $36.2 trillion. Just these five bank holding companies represented 85 percent of all derivatives held by the more than 5,000 Federally-insured banks in the U.S.

It’s long past the time for Congress to break up these Wall Street mega banks.


That second last paragraph is a killer.
$225 Triilion in Derivatives. Its mind boggling
Parasites is the only way to describe these mega banks.
They contribute nothing, produce nothing, but pay massive salaries to its top echelons.
I almost wish bernie sanders wins the presidency.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 21 2020, 02:08 PM


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Posts: 2,248

struggling to stay above the 66 level.
This could turn nasty if people decide they just want out.
Even if the RBA cut rates again (no guarantee), it will be only 25 bp, hardly something to affect incomes.
It is all about sentiment.
So often it is a case of panic selling.
Bring it on.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 21 2020, 11:12 AM


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Posts: 2,248

I bought some at 0.037 well below the SPP price of 0.04.
With the news out today about various groups wanting to invest, the price shot up to 6 cents.
I didnt get the six cents , but was more than happy to take the 5.6 cents price on offer.
not bad for a less than a weeks work.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 20 2020, 07:48 PM


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Posts: 2,248

Aud sitting at .6629
This is a level not seen since early 2009.
Nothing on the horizon to make one think the direction will change any time soon.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 20 2020, 11:28 AM


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Posts: 2,248

sales below the SPP ,
Don't know why you would pay 4 cents when you can buy on market at 3.7.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 09:56 PM


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Howdy Triage, I don't recall bei9ng upset with someone you wrote.
Should I go back and re-read all your posts??
Nah can't be bothered.
You will have to re insult me if you want me to get huffy.
Don't care if DCN is on the auction block, as long as I make a buck out of it that is all that counts.
Whatever happens, Van Ecks will have a say. They have increased their holding by another percent to 6.5%.
Sold down some RMS today, when it went to 1.25 just before close.
EVN is the next one to go for a run, so have loaded up a bit.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 02:52 PM


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Posts: 2,248

well it went from .093 to 0.105, a nice 13% for the day.
When it closed at .093 last night, I put a buy order in at .095 fully expecting it to be filled on the open.
Went straight past me and opened .096 so missed out on the big scalp. And I thought I was being generous on the open at .095!
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 02:45 PM


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Posts: 2,248

given the way the French did us over on the subs, we may be better off getting the yanks to design and build them.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Wow, 16 days since the suspension of DCN as they await ore reserve and mine life recalcs.
Must be a big and complex one.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Pressure on the buy side. lots more buyers than sellers, with a big block at 20 cents.
Sitting back and observing, and lliking what I see.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 09:20 AM


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Posts: 2,248

Some pressure building on buy side.
With gold at 2400 AUD an ounce now, it may well go for a run, especially if the corona virus issue keeps getting worse.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 08:45 AM


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Posts: 2,248

The half yearly report out doesn't add lot to the quarterlies report.
Dividend maintained at 4 cps which is ok.
No lack of cash, so should be able to maintain the divvy.
Will probably be fully franked this next year as they chew up accumulated losses.
Atlantic gold purchase was a big contributor, lets hope that the gold price stays above and beyond the AUD2400 mark.
Will keep holding unless it shoots above 3.20 mark, but will need a gold surge to get there.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 07:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From zero hedge


QUOTE
QUOTE

Foreign central banks have sold US Treasuries for the last 16 months (the last inflow was Aug 2018)

n fact, foreign central banks have only bought Treasurys in 6 in 63 months since Sept 2014.

China was December's biggest seller, followed by Brazil, Luxembourg, and Canada.

China has dumped Treasuries for 9 of the last 10 months with December's $19.3 bn sale the largest since July 2018..
.
Japan remains the largest foreign holder with $1.15 trillion, having added $115.2 billion over the year, but even they sold in December..

Overall, as Bloomberg notes, the pile of U.S. Treasuries held outside the country grew in 2019 to nearly $6.7 trillion from $6.3 trillion at the end of the previous year, as the government’s borrowing picked up to fresh record levels.


That's a fair dip in Chinese held US securities.
If it keeps up, there will be another change in US/China dynamics.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 18 2020, 08:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Gold in USD at its highest since 2013.
Given that AUD has fallen below 67 handle again, gold in AUD has set another all time record.
Expecting gold stocks to rally tomorrow.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 12:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

James Kirby writing in the Weekend OZ

QUOTE
Big super funds that finance short-selling — especially industry funds that strive to take the higher ground in ethical investing — must surely be wincing at a remarkable story in the courts this week surrounding one of the nastier “short attacks” we have ever seen in Australia.

In principle, shorting keeps the sharemarket healthy. It spots weakness and, at its best, forces companies to clean up their act. (Shorting is where an investor borrows a stock for a fee, sells the stock, waits for the price to fall then buys it back, hopefully at a lower price.)

But how short funds actually work in practice is another matter altogether: a court judgment this week would seem to confirm our worst fears about shorts and how they operate in practice.
Many investors don’t like their super funds lending to shorters because they worry it can be unethical: they find it hard to see why their own super fund wants to ­finance an activity that can be trying to “short” the very same shares they probably own.

For example, it is beyond doubt our major super funds over the last year would have been holding JB Hi-Fi while also lending to shorts who were betting the JB Hi-Fi share price would fall (JB Hi-Fi has been consistently among the most shorted stocks in the market).

On Wednesday, Justice David Hammerschlag in the NSW Supreme Court gave Bonitas a beating around the ears that was something to behold.

Hammerschlag said the Bonitas report on Rural Funds was “materially misleading” and then he hit them between the eyes with this: “They (Bonitas) never took the trouble to check with or inquire as to any material which they broadcast … I have no difficulty in concluding that they did not care whether what they were saying was false.”

So it turns out that apart from the issues highlighted in that last statement from Hammerschlag, the self-described “activist short-seller” released a scathing report to start a short attack on an ASX-listed company, then instantly bunkered down in Texas.

As a precautionary measure, Bonitas fired off an email to their Australian target that revealed the Bonitas researchers had never visited Australia and they were sure the laws of the US would protect them should Rural Funds be so presumptuous as to try to defend itself.

Bonitas kept blazing away after the legal loss this week, suggesting the court judgment was “procedurally and substantively infirm”.

Meanwhile, Rural Funds’ share price — at $2.05 — has recovered to a point close to where it was the day Bonitas launched its attack.Hammerschlag will announce his decision on damages in the case on March 6. That decision won’t just be news in our market, it will be read by ever short-selling outfit around the world.

If the Rural Funds exercise ends up costing Bonitas big money in damages, it will change the numbers for anyone considering a short attack on Australian companies. Or, to be precise it will change how shorters behave in our market — and that would be no bad thing.


If there is a large damages payout against Bonitas, in some ways it won't matter if they thumb their nose at the ruling (something they give every indication of doing).
What it will do will give some others the gumption to take the shorters on.
I am seriously thinking of buying into some of these shorted stocks to bet on a rebound.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

GXY is now the no1 shorted stock in OZ according to shortman

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

In much of the climate debates, some research and comments are dismissed because the organisation putting the data or comments out there is funded by an organisation or individual , and thus is extremely biased.
I am still waiting for these very same people to call into question the WHO. From CNBC


QUOTE
The current president of the WHO has been calling for the blame, hate and stigma being directed at China to stop'“We must stop stigma and hate,” he said Saturday during an address at the Munich Security Conference.

“It’s easy to blame, it’s easy to politicize, it’s harder to tackle a problem together and find solutions together,” he added. “We will all learn lessons from this outbreak, but now is not the time for reclamations or politicization.”


No one seems to consider that the Pres may be atad biased.
China is second largest contributor to WHo ( source ).

China is also the largest aid donor to Ethiopia. from RTE

QUOTE
A McKinsley report in 2017 showed that the growth in Chinese investment has been uniformly high, at an average growth rate of more than 52% a year in Ethiopia.

The study found that there are more than 10,000 Chinese-owned firms operating in Africa, with around 90% of them privately owned.

To pay for all of these major developments, Ethiopia has taken out massive loans from China, with state policy banks extending it to more than $12.1 billion since 2000, according to the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University of the United States.

There is no escaping the level of Chinese interest and building, but there is also no ignoring the stumbling blocks that Ethiopia has hit. These opportunities have come at a high price with worries about the sustainability of the country.



Ethiopia does not have enough money or time to pay China. The African nation has racked up tens of billions of dollars of debt, with reports that about half of Ethiopia’s external debt is owed to China, with government debt standing at 59%.


So its not really all that surprising that Who is going to bat for China.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

This morning i went to visit my dentist, who is of Hong Kong Chinese extraction, but born here.
He has recently come back from Honk Kong after travelling over there with his parents , who live in Melbourne.
When you are in the chair with a mouth full of instruments, it is a one way conversation, so one is obliged to listen and be silent.
He was telling me that the Chinese community in Melbourne have basically stopped going out because of fears of corona virus.
His parents have stopped going to china town restaurants, wear those silly masks everywhere, and a re paranoid about even visiting friends.
His father is a retired pharmacist, so he should know that those cheap face masks are totally useless against the virus once they get a little damp (which takes a ew minutes of normal breathing.)
He said he tried to have a rational conversation with both parents, but his father would have none of it.
He said restaurants in Chinatown have closed because not only people like his parents are not eating there, but the huge numbers of Chinese students have gone missing, as well as swathes of Chinese tourists who would normally be eating there.
He said some of the restaurants will not reopen under the current owners, and as the Chinese boycott goes on, more restaurants will join the list.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Zero hedge has an interesting tory on gold dissappearing from the UIK.
The world of international "finance" has become so opaque that we mere mortals have no idea what the scheming bastards are up to .
QUOTE
This is a story about a chart. A pretty astonishing chart.

A chart that has all sorts of consequences, including misleading ministers, distorting our view on the nature of the UK economy and creating a genuine mystery about what's going on in the bowels of the UK economy.

Here's the chart in question:
exports of gold from the UK...For the vast majority of history they were near zero (average monthly level apt £126m). Then, suddenly, in the last two months of last year, gold exports were catapulted higher.

It's a staggering chart.

Just to put that spike into context, £12bn (what those two months of gold exports add up to) is the total annual output of a country like Jamaica. It is more than we typically export, over a two month period, to ANY single country, including US or Germany (our biggest trading partners).

It has serious consequences. Since comparable records began in 1998, there hasn't been a single month where the UK was a net goods exporter. We've always had a deficit. In December, thanks to the £12bn gold exports, Britain recorded its first monthly trade surplus on recordFor the vast majority of history they were near zero (average monthly level apt £126m). Then, suddenly, in the last two months of last year, gold exports were catapulted higher.

It's a staggering chart.

Just to put that spike into context, £12bn (what those two months of gold exports add up to) is the total annual output of a country like Jamaica. It is more than we typically export, over a two month period, to ANY single country, including US or Germany (our biggest trading partners).

It has serious consequences. Since comparable records began in 1998, there hasn't been a single month where the UK was a net goods exporter. We've always had a deficit. In December, thanks to the £12bn gold exports, Britain recorded its first monthly trade surplus on record...
Since then The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has started trying to strip gold out of the figures. Indeed the gold chart above is a new series they've just published.

However ONS are bound by international regulations to include gold in the headline numbers. That massively distorts them. After all, the UK is the world hub for gold trading. Any movement/change of ownership of gold bars counts as imports/exports even though it's hardly what anyone would consider an "export."

You might've thought all of that would mean our politicians would think twice before boasting about those dodgy headline trade figures. Not a bit of it. This week, Liz Truss, MP for South West Norfolk, and UK Trade Secretary, tweeted this about them:

Every bullet point in her tweet is wrong if you strip out gold exports:

UK biz exported £674bn of goods & services (not £689)

A 2.9% increase on 2018 (lowest since 2016; not 5.0%)

We don't know how much exports to non-EU countries rose; ONS hasn't worked them out ex-gold

It's not like exports are doing badly. They're at 30.4% of GDP once you strip out gold. That's one of the highest levels in decades, though it is down on last year. Perhaps that's why Liz Truss used the dodgy headline numbers which look far better because of that £12bn of gold exports.But none of that solves the real mystery here.

Why did gold exports spike so dramatically?

One thesis doing the rounds is that it has something to do with this story: Poland repatriating some of the gold that's been in the Bank of England's vaults since WW2...But it's not that, because central bank gold movements (monetary gold) aren't included in these gold statistics. Anyway all that Polish gold still wouldn't account for all the gold that changed hands in Nov/Dec. It's equivalent to Barbados's GDP, not Jamaica's.

As far as I can divine here's the answer.

A US bank with London gold vaults shifted some of that gold from being "unallocated" to being "allocated".

Effectively it moved it on its balance sheet.

The gold stayed in the same vault but technically it shifted from UK ownership to US.

In other words, a couple of clicks in a bank's spreadsheet caused the biggest fluctuation in Britain's trade figures in modern history. At least that's the most plausible explanation.

Though it raises further questions: Why? Is the bank in trouble? And who owns the gold anyway? And is it just a coincidence that all of this occurred as The Fed was forced to unleash unprecedented liquidity to support the repo market...

Short answer: we may never know. No other sector is as cloak-and-dagger as gold. What we do know is that crazy stuff is happening beneath Britain's national statistics and it's time we started paying attention to it.


I think it is interesting that the start of this massive gold shift coincides with the massive victory for the pro brexit forces in UK elections.
I also wonder if the departure of the Chancellor of the Exchequer has something to do with it.
I just love a good conspiracy theory.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 07:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

So, will the paper derivitives finally be stomped on and stop drpressing PM prices??
From WOP
QUOTE
Bloomberg News reporters Tom Schoenberg and Liam Vaughan broke the story that JPMorgan Chase is under a criminal probe by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) over charges of rigging gold, silver and other precious metals markets. Six traders who worked on the precious metals desk at JPMorgan Chase have been indicted thus far but this is the first report that the bank itself is also under a criminal investigation. This marks the fourth criminal probe of the bank in the past 8 years by the U.S. Department of Justice with the bank pleading guilty to three felony counts in two of the prior criminal investigations.

Throughout this serial crime wave, the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase has kept Jamie Dimon in his seat as Chairman and CEO. Despite knowing that three of the bank’s traders had been charged under the criminal RICO statute and that the investigation could very likely result in criminal charges against the recidivist bank itself, the Board recently awarded Dimon a pay package of $31.5 million for last year – buttressing presidential candidate Bernie Sanders’ message that the business model of Wall Street is fraud.

There was a time in America when a criminal probe of the nation’s largest bank, which holds $1.6 trillion in the life savings of moms and pops at more than 5300 bank branches across the country, would have been worthy of a front-page headline. Not today. Crime and fraud are so de rigueur at the bank led by Dimon that not one major newspaper ran the headline on the front page or anywhere else in the paper.

Corporate media is, in fact, complicit in letting Dimon and his Board off the hook. Dimon’s public relations flacks have teamed up with mainstream media to create the false narrative that Dimon is some kind of economic genius and a Wall Street superstar. Bloomberg News itself has perpetuated that myth by portraying Dimon as the man whose greatest mission is to take good care of his customers – despite the hard fact that federal regulators are perpetually documenting how the bank is ripping its customers off in brazen fraudulent actions. As recently as November 10 of last year, Lesley Stahl of the CBS investigative news program, 60 Minutes, interviewed Dimon and strolled through the bank’s trading floor without ever asking Dimon about the unprecedented felony charges the bank has been forced to plead guilty to under his tenure.


It is instructive to compare the treatment of Australias major Banks following the banking Royal Commission with the treatment of the Major US Commercial Banks, given that all of them have been charged with various crimes since the GFC. Only one Bank leader, the head of We;ls Fargo has been charged ( see Wells chief fined.).

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 16 2020, 11:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From the creators of extinction rebellion cames THIS

QUOTE
A Cambridge academic has called for the extinction of humanity to save the planet while noting that white, male, heterosexuals are to blame for all the world’s woes.

In her new book The Ahuman Manifesto, Professor Patricia MacCormack argues that the only way to prevent ecological disaster is to begin “gradually phasing out reproduction.”

Speaking to CambridgeshireLive, Professor MacCormack made it clear who would be first on the evolutionary chopping block.

“The basic premise of the book is that we’re in the age of the Anthropocene, humanity has caused mass problems and one of them is creating this hierarchal world where white, male, heterosexual and able-bodied people are succeeding, and people of different races, genders, sexualities and those with disabilities are struggling to get that,” she said.

According to CambridgeshireLive’s Alistair Ryder, despite literally calling for the entire human species to be wiped out, the book has a “joyful and optimistic tone.”

Ok, then.

MacCormack said her ideas were first inspired by her interest in “feminism and queer theory.” Imagine my shock.

The professor also wants to completely dismantle religion, although whether that would extend to her own beliefs is unclear.

MacCormack appears in a YouTube video entitled ‘Performing the Occult’ in which she discusses the crucial topic of “vulvic deamonitalia.”

She also featured in a DVD called Video Nasties: The Definitive Guide, in which she reviews a movie called The Chant of Jimmie Blacksmith, which is about an “exploited Aboriginal Australian” who commits a massacre in the name of racial justice.

“Hats off to Morticia for cutting to the chase,” writes Dave Blount. “Worship of the other, hatred for your kind is at the core of liberal ideology. This has inevitably led to support for open boarders, Affirmative Action, anti-Americanism, et cetera. It leads to wanting humanity exterminated just as inevitably. A liberal who doesn’t want the human race to die out has not thought matters through.”


I would suggest that the earnest academic do her theory and the rest of the world a great service by being one of the first to remove herself completely from this toxic society.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Ah, History , such a wonderful teacher. Pity so many in the class don't pay enough attention.


QUOTE
Auto loan and lease balances have surged to a new record of $1.33 trillion. Delinquencies of auto loans to borrowers with prime credit rates hover near historic lows. But subprime loans (borrowers with a credit score below 620) are exploding at a breath-taking rate, and they’re driving up the overall delinquency rates to Financial Crisis levels. Yet, these are the good times, and there is no employment crisis where millions of people have lost their jobs.

All combined, prime and subprime auto-loan delinquencies that are 90 days or more past due – “serious” delinquencies – in the fourth quarter 2019, surged by 15.5% from a year ago to a breath-taking historic high of $66 billion, according to data from the New York Fed released today.
Loan delinquencies are a flow. Fresh delinquencies that hit lenders go into the 30-day basket, then a month later into the 60-day basket, and then into the 90-day basket, and as they move from one stage to the next, more delinquencies come in behind them. When the delinquency cannot be cured, lenders hire a company to repossess the vehicle. Finding the vehicle is generally a breeze with modern technology. The vehicle is then sold at auction, a fluid and routine process.
These delinquent loans hit the lenders’ balance sheet and income statement in stages. In the end, the combined loss for the lender is the amount of the loan balance plus expenses minus the amount obtained at auction. On new vehicles that were financed with a loan-to-value ratio of 120% or perhaps higher, losses can easily reach 40% or more of the loan balance. On a 10-year old vehicle, losses are much smaller.

As these delinquent loans make their way through the system and are written off and disappear from the balance sheet, lenders are making new loans to risky customers, and a portion of those loans will become delinquent in the future. This creates that flow of delinquent loans. But that flow has turned into a torrent.

Seriously delinquent auto loans jumped to 4.94% of the $1.33 trillion in total loans and leases outstanding, above where the delinquency rate had been in Q3 2010 as the auto industry was collapsing, with GM and Chrysler already in bankruptcy, and with the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression approaching its peak. But this time, there is no unemployment crisis; these are the good times:

About 22% of the $1.33 trillion in auto loans outstanding are subprime, so about $293 billion are subprime. Of them, $68 billion are 90+ days delinquent. This means that about 23% of all subprime auto loans are seriously delinquent. Nearly a quarter!

Subprime auto loans are often packaged into asset-backed securities (ABS) and shuffled off to institutional investors, such as pension funds. These securities have tranches ranging from low-rated or not-rated tranches that take the first loss to double-A or triple-A rated tranches that are protected by the lower rated tranches and generally don’t take losses unless a major fiasco is happening. Yields vary: the riskiest tranches that take the first lost offer the highest yields and the highest risk; the highest-rated tranches offer the lowest yields.

These subprime auto-loan ABS are now experiencing record delinquency rates. Delinquency rates are highly seasonal, as the chart below shows. In January, the subprime 60+ day delinquency rate for the auto-loan ABS rated by Fitch rose to 5.83%, according to Fitch Ratings, the highest rate for any January ever, the third highest rate for any month, and far higher than any delinquency rate during the Financial Crisis:



Theres more in the Full Article for those interested, but you get the drift.
These sort of delinquincies were the forerunner to the GFC.
Next we will see the Jingke envelopes as mortgages start to go the same way, then the toxic derivatives before the panic steps in.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Ah Bg, we may have been a little premature.
From yesterdays intraday low of 0.045, it has climbed back up to .054, regaining most of what it lost when I first posted.
Lucky I had not off loaded (yet).
Not sure why the market behaves as it does, all part of the excitement of investing

Mick.
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 13 2020, 04:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From Todays Australian


QUOTE
A NSW Supreme Court judge has slammed the “materially misleading” and “deceptive” reports of a US-based short seller criticising the ASX-listed Rural Funds Group, in a move set to shake up the way high-profile shorts target the market.

In a landmark move, Rural Funds took the Texas-based Bonitas Research to court after a short-sell report authored by the research firm’s founder Matthew Wiechert called the stock “worthless”.

When the report was released on August 6, it triggered a 42 per cent drop in Rural Funds shares and has since kept trade in the company well below its pre-report levels.

In a decision presented to the NSW Supreme Court on Wednesday, Justice David Hammerschlag was scathing in his assessment of the hedge fund and Mr Wiechert, saying their comments were “false in material particulars and materially misleading”.

He found they had breached several sections of the corporations act and the ASIC Act, including engaging in deceptive conduct, and set a date of March 6 to consider the assessment of damages.

“Wiechert is no doubt a sophisticated operator. Yet, as earlier has been said, neither Bonitas nor Wiechert took the trouble to check with or inquire of [Rural Funds management] as to any of the matters which they broadcast. They had an obvious commercial interest in depressing the price. I have no difficulty in concluding that they did not care whether what they were saying was false,” Justice Hammerschlag said.

Mr Wiechert was formerly with Glaucus Research, best known for its take-down of Blue Sky Alternative Investments.

He put up a defence that as a business operating outside of Australia Bonitas was beyond local regulatory scrutiny.

In an email to Rural Funds lawyers in October, and noted in the court’s judgment as conveying the defendant’s “attitude”, Mr Wiechert had cited his constitutional right to free speech and Texan laws.

“We are not going to spend much time familiarising you with the laws of the United States as we assume you reviewed those laws before deciding to commence an action in Australia against an entity and person who do not do business there, and never been physically present there,” he wrote.

“… We will contest the enforcement of any orders or judgments you obtain that certainly will be contrary to the discoverable facts, as well as United States and Texas law and policy.”

Those defences were sharply criticised by the judge, who affirmed that the proceedings were governed by Australian law, as they were capable of being accessed in Australia and remained accessible by Australians.

“I am not qualified to express any view on the operation of the Constitution of the United States of America, or on Texas law and policy, and I do not do so.

“They play no role in the adjudication of these proceedings, which are governed by the laws of Australia.”

His judgment highlighted the dissemination of the report via Twitter and on the research firm’s website as well as through its subscriber channels, finding that Australia was indeed an intended destination for the statements. Investor Peter Davidson, head of Pendal Group’s listed property arm, said the judgment was an “unequivocal” validation of what Rural Funds had been saying all along.

“The judgment calls into question the behaviour of Bonitas and Mr Wiechert and a clear call for review and action by ASIC into this whole affair,” he said.

“My issue as an investor is people making false assertions externally and profiting from those assertions by entering into short transactions in Australia.”

The Australian market is no stranger to predatory short sellers from overseas. Hong Kong-based Bucephalus also took aim at Rural Funds in the months after the initial report, expressing similar claims to Bonitas.

In fact, Bonitas used the second report as validation of its own claims as it threatened Rural Funds with a defamation suit in the US.

Other notable short attacks include tech darling WiseTech, which took a 20 per cent hit to its market value after US-based J Capital accused it of overstating its profits last October.


It will be interesting to see how any judgments are acted upon.
The US firm may well just thumb its nose at the judgement and do nothing.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 13 2020, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

After reaching highs of 1.16 just after the opening, ALK has settled at just over a buck.
Now more buyers than sellers, so will probably see continued consolidation around this level for a while.
Those who bought at that 1.16 level and just below might be feeling a little less excited.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 13 2020, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

PRX has been the one dog in my gold portfoli.
Down 22% today.
presume the market was hoping for more spectacular drill reults than what has come out.
Can't win em all.
This dog will have to go.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 08:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From Truth Theory

QUOTE
For a long time, scientists have known that certain types of fungi are attracted to radiation, and can actually help to break down and neutralize radiation in certain environments. The radioactive site of the abandoned Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant has acted as a real-life laboratory in many ways over the years, giving researchers a look into the physical impact that radiation has on plant and animal life.

In 1991, while a team of researchers was searching the Chernobyl area remotely with robots, they noticed black-spotted fungi growing on the walls of one of the nuclear reactors. They also observed that the fungi appeared to be breaking down radioactive graphite from the core itself. The fungi also seemed to be growing towards the source of the radiation, as if it was attracted to it.
Follow up research in 2007, at the University of Saskatchewan found that different types of fungi are attracted to radiation. A team led by Professor Ekaterina Dadachova observed that some types of fungi grew more rapidly when exposed to radiation.

The three species that were tested were Cladosporium sphaerospermum, Cryptococcus neoformans and Wangiella dermatitidis, all of which grew faster when exposed to radiation. The scientists believe that since these species had large amounts of the pigment melanin, it allows them to absorb things like radiation and convert it into chemical energy for growth.

Another follow-up study, in which eight species collected from the Chernobyl area were sent to the International Space Station (ISS) began in 2016, but has yet to be published. Scientists are eagerly awaiting the results of the study, considering that the samples are being exposed to between 40 and 80 times more radiation than they would here on Earth. If this study is successful, experts hope that the knowledge gained can be used to produce drugs that could protect astronauts from radiation on long-term missions. It has also been suggested that the results of this study could lead to the development of fungi-based cancer treatments.


The kinda science I love, unexpected, reproducible and interesting.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 06:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

As a "short-@rsed ranga" ( at least i was till most of my hair fell out and what was left turned white), I take great umbrage at that remark!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 10:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Almost immediately a suspension in trading pending release of drilling updates, ore reserves and mine life update.
Still not released anything in 9 days.
Must be a complicated report.
Or maybe they didn't want the insider traders having first dibs.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Share pp at .04.
Can buy up to $30,000 . Even have a shortfall purchase facility.
Not sure how many will stump up that much.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And a little more good news.
Latest drilling results from Mount Monger show some fairly high grade results.
Can't do any harm to the future prospects.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

No doubt it is, but that doesn't mean the acronyms can't start investigating who were the ones getting inside advantage.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

That breakout looks like its happening.
my average in is a little below 13 cents, so pretty happy right now. Would settle for 25, but 30 would be even nicer.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

EVN half yearly results turned out ok.
Revenue up 20%. EBITDA up 23%
Stat profit up 60%
15 % increase in in dividends.
Up 2.5 % despite falls in gold and increase in AUD v USD overnight.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Not complaining, but it makes you wonder how many people were in the know before official release.
Insider trading, nah not possible with all our acronyms carefully collecting their big salaries and putting out soothing press releases.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 02:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And here in lies the problem.
You claim Legates paper has been debunked by the anthropological supporters.
The fact that legates was asked to step down was because like peter Ridd, he did not follow the consensus viewpoint.
Just another example of the attenpts to sllence anyone who provides evidence that does not conform with the consensus.
Skeptical science , desmogblog, realclimatescience etcs are one sided fora , just as Whattsupwiththat, Jonova, judithcurry etc are on the other side.
The papers they claim to show global warming were all taken from pro consensus journals, analysed by pro anthropological researchers, what else would one expect.
You don't seem to think that bias and one sided viewpoints don't happen on the consensus side??
Especially as so many of the journals refuse to even look at much less publish anything that is counter to the consensus.
I think I am wasting my time trying to discuss this with you , just as you are likely to be wasting your own time discussing it with me.
I think i will stick to shares and macro economics.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Sold mine out today when it got above a buck.
Purchased the old next door, so proceeds will go to that.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

What makes you think Trump is any different to cutting out anyone who disagrees with him?
What is this other majority of scientists?
I am not aware of any definitive survey of scientists, climatic or otherwise that can prove this point.
The original attempts by Oreskes and Cook to to create this premise had more holes than a collander.
have a look at the paper by Legates here David Legates
There are lots of scientists who do not follow the 97% consensus, you just need to broaden your reading somewhat.
Yes, peak oil is right (though whether it has already happened, is about to happen or is some distance into the future is a moot point.).
Pollution? Are you suggesting that Co2 is a pollutant or are you talking about soot particles, Sulphur compounds, CFC's PFAS methane etc?
One of the best ways of getting rid of soot particles is to provide poorer countries that currently burn wood, animal dung, rubbish,(including plastic) with electricity or gas for heating.
The myriad of plants that have a requirement for CO2 might argue with that.
As to the others, yes they are pollutants, and all man made, but so is the Urban Heat Island effect, the rapid expansion of the human population and the requirement to feed them all.
You ruined everything with your wildly exagerated and emotive statement about dealing with it before wewipe out all the wildlife on the planet.
Start by demanding that no one be allowed to keep pet dogs, pet cats, pet pigs, pet rabbits. pet horses, pet goldfish, pet camels, etc .
feral animals have wiped out and continue to wipe out whole species in OZ.
Introduced species such as foxes, rabbits, cane toads, carp, trout, redfin or english perch, deer, horses, pigs, rats, have added to the list.
And then theres all the introduced plant species that have taken over complete habitats and driven out the original wildlife.
and finally, no one ever makes the case for climate change being good.
Can you imagine how much happier the countries that can't grow sufficent temperate climate food products might be if there was two degrees of warming, or maybe 3 or 4 degrees even.
The people of Greenland may well long to be able to grow wheat on their land as they did during the medieval warming period.
Perhaps its no surprise that Russia is happy to sell petroleum and gas products to the rest of Europe.
And just to top it off, we ignore the one industry that will provide enormous continuous base load power, Nuclear Energy.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 10:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

What makes you think NASA is not funded by vested interest groups??
Indeed it has only one vested interest group, the US Government.
NASA perhaps should have stuck to space exploration, but I guess prior to current incumbent, the previous 4 terms of the POTUS were Democrats who wanted to use the climate to drive their other political agendas.
At the least the org that you questioned the conflicts of interest has multiple vested interests, some of them not entirely related to making money.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Up another 3% this morning on well above average volume.
Yesterday closing price was 15% up on a 12 Million plus trading volume.
The chart shows a similar volume driven rise back in May thru June last year when it doubled from 20 to 40 cents, and followed September thru October when it doubled again.
Would be nice if that pattern was repeated this time, though on the past two occasions, once the biggest volume day s had passed, the volumes dropped off and the price only rose slightly before meandering or falling.
Looking for some exits around 1.20.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 06:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Following my last post about Oil slumps, Gas is heading the same way.
Natural Gas prices have hit an all time low in some areas.
From CNBC
QUOTE
“Honestly speaking, if I have one wish for free, please send me an ice blizzard for the gas prices,” Rainer Seele, CEO of OMV, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
Natural gas prices are almost 30% below where they traded a year earlier — and down nearly 15% since the start of 2020.
In Asia, the benchmark Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM) spot price for liquefied natural gas (LNG) closed at an all-time low of $3.00 MMBtu for the second consecutive session on Thursday, according to data provided by S&P Global Platts.


This last point is going to have a big negative impact on the levies on LNG exported from OZ. This will put further pressure on both state and federal govt revenues, and add further proof as to why we need to change the 40 year resource rent tax agreements.
From The Australian

QUOTE
A failure to modify outdated gas royalty tax rules means Australia is “giving away for free” the world’s largest supply of liquefied natural gas to multinational corporate giants such as Chevron and Exxon, an expert says.

Australia has been transformed into the world’s largest exporter of LNG, with industry revenues passing $50bn a year.

Despite this boom, the government’s tax take from the industry is set to fall $450m over the four-year budget estimates, from $1.4bn annually today.

The Australian has reported the government is looking at ways to lift taxes on the gas ­industry as it seeks to shore up its commitment to a budget surplus in this and future years.

Josh Frydenberg at the weekend pushed back against “speculation” he was looking at making changes to the 40-year-old tax, noting his department’s review into the PRRT would not be ­finalised before the May budget.

Nationals MP Matt Canavan said: “I don’t think the government would seek to increase taxes on our resources industry because higher taxes are not what our economy needs now.”


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 06:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

West texas crude below $50 again.
OILPRICE sees oil dropping to mid 40's.
Forbes is even more pessimistic and sees oil dropping to mid 30's.

QUOTE
While it won't be all about the Coronavirus outbreak currently crippling China's economy, the pandemic and a whole host of scenarios could play out in tandem to drive the oil price down below $30 per barrel levels.
First off, it's a slump in Chinese demand that's the primary bearish factor here; an economy that despite its readjustment still consumes on average 14 million barrels per day (bpd). In grappling with and getting a handle on the Coronavirus, Beijing has put millions of people in quarantine, extended the Chinese New Year holiday, and shuttered offices, factories, shipyards, shopping malls, cinemas and other public places.
Whole towns in Hubei province, including Wuhan where the outbreak originated have been off limits for weeks. This is likely to knock China's demand, at least for the first quarter, by 18% to 25% according to industry surveys and the plethora of "anonymous" comments by oil executives to newswires. If pegged at a median of that range, it comes to around 3 million bpd less required by China as its economic activity declines.

That's bearish factor one, and the second bearish factor is the domino effect of the pandemic. The outbreak has spread to over 20 countries and led to 715 deaths at the time of writing. One clear macroeconomic casualty would be civil aviation industry not just within and to/from China but globally, with fewer travelers, higher restrictions and global health-related wariness over flying.

Lower calls on jet fuel in Asia are becoming visible and many international airlines have temporarily suspended flights to China. According to Reuters, on the U.S. West Coast, jet fuel prices have taken a severe knock as cheaper supplies are being sent into the region from Asian markets.

Jet fuel for delivery into Los Angeles JET-LA was down 25% on January, to $1.5997 on Monday (February 3) from $2.1266 a gallon. While that might make airplanes cheaper to fill up, lower number of passengers and fewer flights in its wake would again drive consumption lower. Both factors are good enough to spook the market on their own and its already happening.

You'll often hear in current market discourse that oil has fallen 20% of its peak "this year", except that the trading year is only into its second month, and has had a short-lived rally past $70 in Brent's case following the U.S.-Iran tiff after the killing of the Islamic Republic's Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani in an American airstrike. Nonetheless, a drop is a drop.

The third bearish factor could be OPEC+ discord. The group's discipline has held firm since 2016 but the Russians have over-promised and haven't delivered. Yet, OPEC's credibility is predicated these days on Moscow's participation.

When the magnitude of demand destruction following the Coronavirus outbreak became apparent, OPEC+ representatives came together on February 4-5 but failed to reach an agreement on the proposed deepening of cuts by 600,000 bpd despite extending talks to a third day as the Russians blocked it. If OPEC+ discipline cracks and barrels flow freely, market bears will have a merry dance.

The fourth bearish factor is actual global demand which wasn't much to write home about in the first place before the Coronavirus outbreak. Demand growth expectations for 2020 were in the range of 800,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) putting it in the region of 1.2 million bpd.

Many analysts, myself included, were leaning towards the lower end of market projections with the Indian economy looking dicey, and South Korea's and Japan's crude importation in decline since 2018. With the Coronavirus outbreak, all old projections are out of the window and 2020 may yet be the year where there might be considerably lower demand growth, negligible demand growth or even a possible decline.

Only market projection available so far is from BP, with the company noting that global demand growth could be 300,000-500,000 bpd lower than its internal 2020 projection of 1.2 million bpd. If reflected in the data, that equates to one-third of demand growth being wiped out.

Finally, this brings us to the fifth bearish factor – supply. Lower pricing will inevitably hit exploration and production activity in marginal plays. However, where output is conventional and onstream, there is nowhere for that oil to go but out. Add to that some U.S. shale players with viable acreages and sub-$35 break-evens, run in the spirit of private enterprise that will continue to monetize their barrels.
Overall non-OPEC production could come in anywhere between 2.1-2.3 million bpd, with barrels not just from the U.S. but Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway as well. Combine the factors and you have demand destruction on a scale and speed that is unprecedented this century. Neither SARS (2002), Ebola outbreak (2013) nor the global financial crisis (2008) can match it, and it'll be coupled with ample barrels on the supply-side.

As Q1 2020 heads for the lowest quarters of global growth on record, there's no sugar coating it – the oil market is staring at a proper crisis at the worst possible time and place. Should all bearish factors fall in line, many would call it a black swan event. I prefer to call it the perfect storm that'll take prices down below $30.

Maybe, one of the five factors may not materialize as possible OPEC+ action could avert the storm. However, even that won't be enough to calm heavy bearish headwinds that have been blowing hard for five successive weeks of oil price declines.


As we are all aware, not all forecasts become fact.
Only in January, Barclays said
QUOTE
Barclays expects crude oil demand this year to rise by 1.4 million bpd, up from 900,000 bpd last year, thanks to the improved global economy outlook, Reuters reports, citing the bank.


then a week later the same Barclays said

QUOTE
A slump in oil demand caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus in China could pressure oil prices by $2 per barrel Barclays analysts said, revising its full-year Brent crude forecast to $62 a barrel and its West Texas Intermediate forecast to $57 a barrel.


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 10 2020, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And up another 14% today.
Something up, can't just be the gold cycling.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 9 2020, 08:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I'm sorry Joules, I refuse tom play that straw man game.
I have at no stage said there was no such thing as climate change.
I am looking for the smoking gun that proves that climate change is all or mostly anthropogenic.
Everything else is window dressing.
Arguments about how much the earth or oceans s have warmed, or how much ice has decreased, or how much the seas have risen does not show cause.
Every time you post something, the underlying assumption is everything is anthropogenic.
I do not accept that assumption, sans adequate proof.
Contrary to the general message, there are many scientists, engineers, mathermaticians, etc etc who are also waiting for proof.
And please don't try and bring up the 97% consesnus, that has been debunked numerous times.
Consensus is not science, indeed science mostly moves forward because somebody thinks the prevailing consensus is incorrect.

Mick



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 9 2020, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

For every graph you post, I can show one showing a different trend, depending on the start and finish bits. I cam also make them appear as though the change is quite significant by scaling the Y axis.
And as for the ridiculous graph of the world temperature.
Its an artificial construct, lacking in consistency, does not cover evn half the earth, skews the result to highly populated areas subject to UHI effect.
The shrinking ice in japan i will accept as a consistent record for that area of Japan.
The graph of arctic sea ice, is in the opposite hemisphere and is a model reconstruction, noy a a measurement.
The CO2 graph is I presume to show the link between CO2 and climate change.
Most people agree there is a link, the big question to what extent is it anthropogenic and to what extent natural variations.
When someone can give deffinitive proof, not a model , then we will be getting somewhere.
By the way, correlation does not prove causation.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2020, 05:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

So how do you know the area in Antarctica where this low temperature is on an upward sloping trend?
Statistics are a wonderful tool, they will tell you anything you want to hear.
Because i was bored one day, and i was reading the usual spiel about the USA heating at an alarming rate, I did a small amount of research.
I looked at the highest and lowest temperature records in the 50 contiguous states of the ole USA.
So i looked at the decades from 1900 to 20102, and counted how many records highs and lows occyurred in ach decade.
The results were most surprising.

For those interested, The date came from Here
Decade Number of record High Temps. Number of record Low Temps
prior to 1900 0 5
1900-1909 0 5
1910-1919 5 3
1920-1929 2 0
1930-1939 25 9
1940-1949 0 4
1950-1959 3 2
1960-1969 1 3
1970-1971 2 2
1980-1989 4 6
1990-1999 5 7
200-20009 0 2
2010-2019 2 2

16 of the record high temperatures and 5 of the record low temperatures had been equalled in prior years, but there is no documentation as to what decade the previous records occurred.
The most obvious and surprising stat is that about half the records occurred in the 1930's.
The next obvious is that the highest number of lows also occurred in the 1930's. Indeed in a couple of cases (Michigan, North Dakota and Oregaon), the record highs and lows occurred in the same year!
Despite the "hottest evahhh" claims, the last two decades have set more lowest evahh records than highest evahh.
The two decades from 1980 to 189 had another spurt of both hot and cold temp records.
There are probably more subtly signals in there that a well trained statistician could extract, but thats not me.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2020, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

and at the opposite end of the scale, this was from 2018 original article HERE
QUOTE
As summer starts heating up, scientists just published the coldest temperature ever recorded on Earth. During the long, dark Antarctica winter temperatures dropped low enough to resemble other planets.

The temperature they measured? A stunning negative 144 degrees Fahrenheit (-97.8 degrees Celsius). At that temperature, just a few breaths of air would induce hemorrhaging in your lungs and quickly lead to death.

The temperature was recorded using satellite measurements in the middle of Antarctica during the depths of winter where the sun never rises. These findings, recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, are close to the theoretical coldest temperature Earth can get down to.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 7 2020, 12:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

And after the pumping comes the dumping.
Down 31% this morning and now down to where it was before the Pump and Dump started.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 7 2020, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Latest US trials announcement seems to have given EDE a kick.
Up over 13% today, might take a few off the table to realise some profits.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

SVL down below 10 cents again.
Huge numbers of sellers versus buyers.
Have got my buying finger poised, but hoping it goes down much further before the next risk off series of PM price rises.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 03:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From the excellent satiriical site Babylon Bee
QUOTE
WASHINGTON, D.C.—In his opening statement at Trump's impeachment trial, Rep. Adam Schiff reminded the Senate of their solemn duty and the gravity of just what it is they will be discussing at the trial.


Schiff warned that if Trump is not impeached, the American people may have a chance to tamper with the next election.

"If President Trump is not impeached, the American people might get a say in who is president," Schiff said gravely. "We simply can't allow that to happen. We must diligently defend our electoral process against electoral outcomes we do not like. If that means seizing power through a sham impeachment trial, so be it."

"When the Founders wrote that founding document thing, they never imagined there would be electoral outcomes that Democrats did not agree with."

Democrats also said they even have hard evidence that the 2016 election was compromised by Republicans voting for Trump.

"We know this horrible outcome could happen, because it's already happened once before."


and

QUOTE
NEW YORK—Presidential hopeful Michael Bloomberg acquired his first supporter today, Bloomberg reports. The man, Tom Kenny of the East Village, was purchased for a hefty $1.7 billion, which he claims was a bargain.


It all started when Kenny heard one of Bloomberg’s many brilliant ads on the radio. “I’ve always loved the guy,” Kenny said while being frisked by a police officer. “I’ve also always loved Big Gulps too, though, so there’s that, but I was just so convinced by the ad.” The ad began by listing some of Mayor Bloomberg’s many accomplishments, but then quickly moved to offering citizens a large sum of cash in return for full-fledged support of the candidate in the 2020 presidential race.

When Kenny arrived at the big investment bank to cash in on his vote, he was surprised to find that nobody else had shown up to collect. However, he knew from his studies in college that this gave him a tremendous advantage. “They offered me 50 million,” Kenny claimed, shaking his head. “I said, ‘50 billion and we’ve got ourselves a deal.'” Kenny admits he may have aimed a little high, but was glad to exit the bank with a $1.7 billion check in his hand.

Elizabeth Warren chimed in on the issue, claiming she will tax the sale at 100% on her first day as president. The task may prove more difficult for Warren than it seems, though, since Kenny has already blown at least half of the money on luxury jets and Yeezys.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The wind generators that are not so eco friendly.

FromBloombergs

QUOTE
A wind turbine’s blades can be longer than a Boeing 747 wing, so at the end of their lifespan they can’t just be hauled away. First, you need to saw through the lissome fiberglass using a diamond-encrusted industrial saw to create three pieces small enough to be strapped to a tractor-trailer.

The municipal landfill in Casper, Wyoming, is the final resting place of 870 blades whose days making renewable energy have come to end. The severed fragments look like bleached whale bones nestled against one another.

“That’s the end of it for this winter,” said waste technician Michael Bratvold, watching a bulldozer bury them forever in sand. “We’ll get the rest when the weather breaks this spring.”


Tens of thousands of aging blades are coming down from steel towers around the world and most have nowhere to go but landfills. In the U.S. alone, about 8,000 will be removed in each of the next four years. Europe, which has been dealing with the problem longer, has about 3,800 coming down annually through at least 2022, according to BloombergNEF. It’s going to get worse: Most were built more than a decade ago, when installations were less than a fifth of what they are now.

Built to withstand hurricane-force winds, the blades can’t easily be crushed, recycled or repurposed. That’s created an urgent search for alternatives in places that lack wide-open prairies. In the U.S., they go to the handful of landfills that accept them, in Lake Mills, Iowa; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; and Casper, where they will be interred in stacks that reach 30 feet under.


The blades made from fibreglass or carbon fibre , have large amounts of resin, acetone, catalyst and other fossil fuel based products.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

At least they say its going to be planned.
Before they roll out of large numbers of electric vehicles, they have to sort out the charging problems first,
Scalability is the big issue, as our distribution networks were never designed for fastcharging of batteries on a macro scale.
If ever there was a primary use for localised solar or wind generators, electric charging stations have got to be the primary goal.
Short run DC generation and charging rather than running massive inverters to convert AC to DC for charging.
The high current draw required to charge vehicles will put a big strain on AC networks.
Households should not be allowed to run EV chargers unless they have solar rooftop systems with battery backup storage would be a good start.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Did he happen to mention China, India and USA in that speech?
Between them they account for 50% of the CO2 emitted.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2020, 02:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Mr Market liked it.
AUD up .4% after the announcement.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2020, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Oz rates on hold, at 0.75%.
Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of cut in March.
Can't see it happening myself, all the other rate cuts have done SFA, what on earth makes people think another rate cut will make any difference?
fromABC News
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2020, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

There is another cyclone brewing off the Pilbara, ,should be declared by Friday.

from BOM



If the forecasts are correct, the Murray darling Basin will get a pretty big influx of water over the net 8 days.
The MB Basin will get at least an inch, about half will get 2 inches, and a third up to four inches.
An area of of about 500 square miles around Cunnamulla is forecast to get 4 inches plus.
Big rain if it comes true.
Be nice to see a bit of flood water scooting down the Darling.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 3 2020, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I am sure that some readers on the Share scene reckon I am a bit unfair sometimes picking on the ABC, but stories like the one below really aggravate me.

From The ABC

The headline for the article
QUOTE
Child Next Door report paints grim picture of exploitation, trafficking in Queensland

Is followed up by this
QUOTE
A report from a child safety expert has prompted a warning that potentially large numbers of young people could be being exploited by sexual predators in Queensland.

The operative words are "potentially" and "could".
Not are or have been, but potentially and could.

QUOTE
Paul Morton, who works for the organisation that commissioned the report, Integrated Family and Youth Services (IFYS), said it was difficult to know exactly how many young people were being exploited or abused because so many were too frightened to seek support or justice.

"We're talking potentially dozens, if not 100 young people that are involved in it," he said.


So, the headline suggests there is a big problem in exploitation and trafficking in Queensland. The body of the report says there is no data, but everyone suspects its bad.
I have no wish to downplay the problems of child exploitation, but this is crap.
If the same sort of language were to be used about a resource company (say CDU), we would all be extremely suspicious.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 3 2020, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

JAT says sales of Lactoferrin have increased due to Coronavirus fears.
Although coming from a minuscule base, the January sales have increased over 800% compared to same month last year, with February orders not showing any declines.
Not sure how long it can be sustained, but might be useful for a short term scalp.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 3 2020, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I had thought that DCN was already on the topc list, as I am sure I had commented on it before, but old age is obviously getting to me.
The quarterly report will not help Dacian share price much, despite the gold increasing in value in AUD.
Although production was at the top end of guidance, of 77,000 ounces forthe half year, it was costly.
It had a negative cash flow for the quarter, with the already high AISC increasing to $1737 and oz. We will have to assume this is AUD, as it does not explicitly state which currency it is in.
Total forward hedging is 130,00 ounces at $1962 per oz. Some of these stretch out uinti l2021.
They never reduced the debt levels, and were still cash flow negative.
Will need a big increase in gold and/or a big drop in AUD to get this one up much further.
Will take my money and go elsewhere.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 2 2020, 05:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Whatever Delta have installed on existing aircraft have either had FAA approval, or were deemed to be a minor change that does not affect the performance, handling characteristics, loading etc of an already certified aircraft.
The fact that Delta have already installed 19 CVM kits does not preclude them having had FAA approval prior to installation.
The original 19 may have been done by field approval whereby a single serial number is approved.
This is often the approach taken by manufacturers to effectively put a single aircraft into testing phase before a blanket approval, namely an STC is issued.
Dr Daz is quoting an STC, which must be approved by the FAA before the aircraft can fly as RPT.
Depending on who owns the STC (Boeing, Delta or even AEM), will determine whether it is rolled out to all 737 aircraft.
Any other organisation (namely other airlines if Delta owns the STC) must negotiate with the holder of STC to get approval to quote it when installing something that was not part of original equipment list.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2020, 04:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Sorry Dr Daz, no airline is going to install anything without FAA approval.
Airline maintenance just doesn’t work like that.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2020, 03:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Brilliant Nipper, another copralitic takedown.
So good I almost missed it.
You have a mind out of left field.

QUOTE
(and as for some Canadian fairy, just POQ)


Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2020, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

To be fair, the original article included a number of businesses, including telstra, who were planning to use the US based factoring company to screw their suppliers.
They have all backed down since.
Robert Gotliebson in the same publication Friday suggests that pending fed laws may up end the way big business pays their suppliers.
Not a good look for any of them.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2020, 03:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Oops that should read 2373. Not good to knock a 100 off the pog.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2020, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Gold shot up last night, and AUD fell, so gold in AUD up to 2273.
Should be good open come monday for gold stocks.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 10:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

California regards concrete as the spawn of the devil, seeing as it produces so much carbon pollution in its manufacture, so maybe we never will see sales in CA.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 01:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

My wife does locum pharmacy work, and she told me last night how much of an increase in Cannabis related products she is dispensing in the last few months.
Based on this, I have made my first foray into medical Cannabis via CPH.
Medical Cannabis is not to be confused with your regular home grown pot.
When discussing this with someone this morning, they thought I was mad because pot is already legal in ACT, and likely to be legalised in other states, so there would be no need for medical cannabis when you can grow your own.
Its a long way down from the 1.38 high now, and it may go lower.
Only a small position as its still an industry in its infancy.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 10:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

From the Australian


QUOTE
Labor frontbencher Mark Dreyfus sparked the Attorney-­General’s Department’s push for Tony Abbott and the Australian organiser of last year’s Conservative Political Action Conference to register as agents of foreign ­influence.

In a meeting with senior representatives of the department’s integrity and security division on July 22, Mr Dreyfus encouraged officials to examine whether the three-day CPAC event held in ­August would trigger registration requirements under the government’s Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme. The exchange is revealed in documents obtained under Freedom of Information laws and has triggered fresh claims that Labor sought to use the scheme to “censor the free speech” of political rivals, a move that threatened “Australia’s democracy and national security”.

It has also stoked fears from conservatives that senior bureaucrats were “conspiring in secret with the Labor Party” to pursue the ALP’s opponents rather than using the scheme to identify more pressing threats to the national ­interest.

An internal document from the Attorney-General’s Department, obtained by free-market think tank the Institute of Public Affairs, states that Mr Dreyfus, Labor’s legal affairs spokesman, “queried the application of the scheme to foreign political organisations holding events in ­Australia”.

“He specifically raised the upcoming Conservative Political ­Action Conference (CPAC) to be held in Sydney on 9-11 August 2019, as an example of an event that may trigger registration obligations under the scheme and asked what the department planned to do about it,” the document says.
Following Mr Dreyfus’s intervention, the department wrote on August 2 to the event’s Australian organiser, Andrew Cooper, whose not-for-profit group LibertyWorks co-hosted CPAC with the American Conservative Union.
Mr Cooper was asked to register under the scheme and later, in October, became the first person under the scheme who was ­ordered to hand over documents and threatened with jail time.

The department sent a separate letter to Mr Abbott on August 8, asking him to register because he was scheduled to speak at CPAC.

Both men rejected the requests, moves that challenged the integrity of the new foreign influence laws.
Mr Dreyfus has previously asked for investigations into a range of issues of political issues that could potentially advantage the Labor Party.

In October, he asked NSW police to probe how Energy Minister Angus Taylor’s office came to use incorrect figures in a political attack against Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore and whether a fake document had been created by Mr Taylor’s staff to mislead journalists. He also asked last March for an AFP investigation into whether the appointment of lawyer Jane Bell as a member of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal by Mr Porter was aimed at influencing her push to win the Liberal preselection for the seat of Higgins in Victoria.


the last bit about asking AFP to investigate the motives behind the Jane Bell appointment was particularly stupid. As a lawyer, he would have known it was waste of time as the police would have absolutely no way of proving it true or false, and was just a political stunt.
Doesn't surprise me from Dreyfus, but the reaction of the highest levels of the Public Service does.
Surely they would have known that their actions would cause deep trouble, more for themselves than their targets.
perhaps that was their aim all along.

I am still waiting for the same group of unbiased public servants to pull the same stunt on the upcoming marxist Conference at Melbourne Uni.
Plenty of overseas speakers, including US activist and writer Nathaniel Flakin, Chicago protest organiser and anti-racist Todd St Hill would surely qualify as agents of influence.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Thanks mainly to the coronavirus panic, AUD still heading southward and just keeping its head above the 66 handle.
Have no idea how much lower it can go, but at some point it will become self fulfilling and the AUD drops because people want out regardless of fundamentals.
Should recover a bit once the virus panic dies down, but the trend has been heading down for while now..
Surprised that gold stocks have not gone higher given the lower dollar and higher tension due to the coronavirus.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Nearmap suffered a large fall after US sales guidance for year was revised downwards.
Was talking to a Commercial pilot involved in survey mapping last week about his work, and he mentioned that there were more competitors for nearmap and technology was changing very quickly.
He particularly mentioned a new product they were working with that may have been eagleview, but don't quote me on that, I never thought it terribly important till I saw yesterdays result.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The quarterly report has EDE spending a little over 3 mill next quarter.
Given that EDE has 3.4 mill cash at the beginning of the quarter, they are going to have to improve significantly on the sales side (0.7 mill last quarter) if there is not going to be ANOTHER cap raising.
I think just about the only way I am ever going to make any money on EDE is if the Yanks launch a buyout.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I am a little bit surprised that no one has commented on Zimplats.
Palladium with a rocket up its derrière, and one of the larger producers of palladium, one wight think there would have been a bit of interest.
Its been on a gradual rise since early 2018 and is up 100% over the past year.
The quarterly report out overnight was a little disappointing..
KEY FEATURES
• Five lost-time injuries were recorded during the quarter
• Achieved one and half million fatality free shifts during the quarter
• Tonnes mined increased marginally from the previous quarter
• Tonnes milled decreased 2% from the previous quarter
• Platinum and six elements (platinum, palladium, gold, rhodium, ruthenium and iridium) (6E) production decreased
24% and 23% from the previous quarter respectively
• Cash cost per 6E ounce produced increased by 30% from the previous quarter.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2020, 07:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Ya reckon the lovely Bridget will end up in the slammer??
She could take Eddie Obeids place, the bed is still warm.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 30 2020, 02:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

RMS has been a good trade vehicle for me over the past 12 months as the gold price fluctuated, however, not sure if it will continue to do so.
The only down side is their large forward sales book of 239,000 ounces at an average price of AUD1914 an ounce till May 2022.
If they maintain production at current levels, which is about 190,000 ounces per year,, more than half their production is in forward sales, at a price well below the current price of AUD 2345 .
I guess as long as the costs are contained, it should bea safe buy as an exposure to gold.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 30 2020, 01:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

Geez, talk about rookie mistakes!
Posting can be such a humbling experience.
Mea Maxima Culpa.
At least you spared me the coprolitic comparisons.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 30 2020, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

I guess the 60 tonne pilot plant success was the leaked info that sparked the jump.
Up another 4% today.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 29 2020, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,248

The Half yearly report was hardly flattering.
total Sales down by 50% from a paltry level.
2022 may well be the break year.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

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