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TESLA, The Ambitions of Musk
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 02:34 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 3 2019, 08:36 AM

And how many experts/analysts/companies involved in battery raw materials are relying on/spruiking inflated (by subsidies) EV sales growth figures. Have been cautioning this for some time.





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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 08:36 AM
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QUOTE
Tesla reported Model 3 sedan deliveries that missed Wall Street’s estimates and said it would cut prices on all its vehicles, news that drove shares of the electric car maker down more than 8 per cent.

Tesla cut prices by $US2,000, moving the starting cost of the Model 3 -- the vehicle it is banking on to reach the mass market -- to $US44,000. The move, in part, was to make up for the elimination of federal tax incentives for Tesla vehicles that begin to phase out this year, it said.

The company has been working toward offering the Model 3 compact sedan at $US35,000, part of chief executive Elon Musk’s bet Tesla can make a more affordable vehicle as part of his vision for broader adoption of electric vehicles in the auto industry.

The car maker said total deliveries, fuelled by increased production and sales of the Model 3 sedan, more than tripled to 90,700 in the fourth quarter, from 29,870 a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by FactSet, though, had expected total deliveries, including the more pricey Model S large sedan and Model X sport-utility vehicle, of 92,000 vehicles...
- business models incorporating subsidies often come unstuck.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 5 2018, 02:43 PM
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Not what some of our politician are saying, but then rolleyes.gif
QUOTE
South Australia's big battery has outperformed expectations in its first year of operation, saving almost $40 million in grid stabilisation costs, helping prevent blackouts, and generally restoring confidence in energy supply in the state, according to project backer Neoen.

The 100 megawatt Hornsdale battery, the idea for which sparked from a famed Twitter exchange between tech billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes and Tesla's Elon Musk, has had a huge impact in reducing prices in the grid stabilisation market, known as the frequency control and ancillary services (FCAS) market, according to an independent report released on Tuesday by engineering and advisory firm Aurecon.

Aurecon's analysis showed that the sharp spikes in FCAS prices during bottlenecks on the network seen in 2016 and 2017 were markedly absent in 2018 despite similar instances of grid constraints, while prices overall were about 75 per cent lower on average.

https://www.afr.com/business/energy/solar-e...up.com/advisory



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 27 2018, 01:55 PM
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Tesla appears to be in trouble again - according to the WSJ/zerohedge - just when the market was delighted/stunned by their Q3 results

FBI Is Investigating If Tesla Misstated Info About Model 3 Production
QUOTE
While we already knew that a second SEC investigation was taking place in relation to Tesla's Model 3 production, the Wall Street Journal dropped a bombshell this afternoon stating that a DOJ investigation into Model 3 production numbers was also not only was taking place, but was also intensifying.

Tesla shares quickly dropped almost $25 off highs on the news before bouncing after releasing its own response, stating it has only received a "voluntary request for documents" and not a subpoena:

According to the Wall Street Journal, the FBI is examining whether Tesla misstated information about production of its Model 3 dating back to early 2017. Action in the criminal investigation is reported to have intensified since Musk settled with the SEC last week.

The Journal also reports that the FBI has contacted former Tesla employees for testimony in the criminal case. Many former employees have received subpoenas and have been interviewed by the FBI. The investigation is said to focus on the following timeline:

In February 2017, after reporting fourth-quarter 2016 results, Tesla laid out an aggressive production plan to bring out the Model 3, with plans to ramp up to 5,000 vehicles a week in the fourth quarter. On a conference call that month with analysts, Mr. Musk said he was pushing suppliers to be ready for a weekly run rate of 1,000 vehicles in July to 2,000 in August and 4,000 in September.

A few months later in July, Mr. Musk sounded confident that Tesla would be producing 20,000 Model 3s a month in December 2017, in line with his previous pledge of having 5,000 vehicles a week by year’s end. “Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec,” he tweeted on July 2, 2017, days before the first Model 3 rolled off the production line.

In the early weeks of production, the company’s body shop, where the skeleton of the cars would take shape, wasn’t fully functional, according to an October 2017 article in The Wall Street Journal. Tesla was still hand-building parts of the Model 3s, and the body shop wasn’t fully installed until September, according to people quoted in the article that were familiar with the situation.

Tesla ended up producing 2,700 Model 3s for all of 2017, and 793 in the last week of 2017

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-26/f...el-3-production
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-faces-de...age=1&pos=1



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 24 2018, 02:43 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Oct 24 2018, 02:05 PM

No, not all hot air - they've been working on it for some time - for memory they mentioned it about a year ago and have been doing their R&D from their technology center located in the UK.

Funding wouldn't be an issue either.

Singapore is an attractive place to do business, thanks to low tax rates there - just ask BHP & RIO.

I think this one could get off the ground - unlike some others.

The more competition the merrier smile.gif





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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
triage
post Posted: Oct 24 2018, 02:05 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 24 2018, 09:50 AM

According to this article there are plans for a new competitor to Tesla to begin constructing electric cars in Singapore. I'm not sure whether this story is all hot air or whether the new venture actually has a chance of cleaning up...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45950377








(sorry, rolleyes.gif )



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 24 2018, 09:50 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 18 2018, 07:32 PM

Interesting that short seller Citron Research is now long Tesla - they also reckon "- Tesla is destroying the competition."

QUOTE
As much as you can’t believe you are reading this, we can’t believe we are writing this!
The most challenging part of being a short seller is to constantly check your thesis to make
sure nothing has changed. You must let all predispositions and prejudices disappear and stay
focused on only the facts.

It is in that spirit and with a great deal of analysis and due diligence that we can say for the
first time, Citron is long Tesla as the Model 3 is a proven hit and many of the TSLA warning
signs have proven not to be significant.

It has been almost 5 years since Citron published the following line:

“By the time this product is even approaching market, there will be
multiple other 200-mile range plug-ins that have been out for years.”

Rumors of the Tesla killers have been as constant and unfounded as Bob Lutz's call for Tesla's
bankruptcy.

While the media has been focused on Elon Musk’s eccentric, outlandish and at times
offensive behavior, it has failed to notice the legitimate disruption of the auto industry that is
currently being DOMINATED by Tesla
.

read more - https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploa...g-to-ignore.pdf



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 18 2018, 07:32 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 18 2018, 12:46 PM

QUOTE
Not sure what/if any subsidies/tax incentives are available in the US for EV's - that goes some way in the decision making process of buyers. In countries where subsidies have been scaled back, so have sales


Out of curiosity had a look at what's currently in place. The US federal government currently offers a $7,500 tax credit on electric vehicles sold. The credit is designed to start ratcheting downward once the companies have grown enough to sell a total of 200,000 vehicles each. Tesla I believe passed this threshold in July and GM is getting close.

California is coming to Tesla's rescue, apparently. However the Bill is yet to pass the Senate.

QUOTE
It looks like the state of California is bailing out Tesla
The California state Assembly passed a $3-billion subsidy program for electric vehicles, dwarfing the existing program. The bill is now in the state Senate. If passed, it will head to Governor Jerry Brown, who has not yet indicated if he'd sign what is ostensibly an effort to put EV sales into high gear, but below the surface appears to be a Tesla bailout.
Tesla will soon hit the limit of the federal tax rebates, which are good for the first 200,000 EVs sold in the US per manufacturer beginning in December 2009 (IRS explanation). In the second quarter after the manufacturer hits the limit, the subsidy gets cut in half, from $7,500 to $3,750; two quarters later, it gets cut to $1,875. Two quarters later, it goes to zero.

Given Tesla's ambitious US sales forecast for its Model 3, it will hit the 200,000 vehicle limit in 2018, after which the phase-out begins. A year later, the subsidies are gone. Losing a $7,500 subsidy on a $35,000 car is a huge deal. No other EV manufacturer is anywhere near their 200,000 limit. Their customers are going to benefit from the subsidy; Tesla buyers won't.

This could crush Tesla sales. Many car buyers are sensitive to these subsidies. For example, after Hong Kong rescinded a tax break for EVs effective in April, Tesla sales in April dropped to zero. The good people of Hong Kong will likely start buying Teslas again, but it shows that subsidies have a devastating impact when they're pulled.

That's what Tesla is facing next year in the US.

In California, the largest EV market in the US, 2.7% of new vehicles sold in the first quarter were EVs, up from 0.4% in 2012, according to the California New Dealers Association. California is Tesla's largest market. Something big needs to be done to help the Bay Area company, which has lost money every single year of its ten years of existence. And taxpayers are going to be shanghaied into doing it.

To make this more palatable, you have to dress this up as something where others benefit too, though the biggest beneficiary would be Tesla because these California subsidies would replace the federal subsidies when they're phased out.


https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock...out-2017-7?IR=T



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 18 2018, 12:46 PM
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In Reply To: Pendragon's post @ Oct 18 2018, 10:01 AM

Hi pendragon

Why would you suggest getting into a "bun fight"? Posters should be free to voice an opinion - I welcome yours. smile.gif

There is so much conflicting data around concerning Tesla it's hard to believe who/what is right - I tend to be skeptical by nature. Take the sales figures in your article with data from Atherton Research (seems to be a 1 man operation the only webiste for them is a linkedin site - https://www.linkedin.com/company/atherton-research/) , then take the one below provided by Edmunds (https://www.edmunds.com/about/) Edmunds estimates explained below - they come up with estimates of Tesla US sales of 64,727 vs 69,925 for Atherton How Atherton calculate their estimate I'm not sure. Assume both include all models?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-sa...kers-2018-10-11


QUOTE
Unlike most auto makers, Tesla reports production and deliveries, its proxy for sales, shortly after the end of a quarter, and it does not break down deliveries by region. The U.S. sales numbers for Tesla are estimates by Edmunds.com analysts, gleaned through registration data, modeling, and other data points.


I can see why Tesla is doing well in the US (particularly). Firstly it's AMERICAN and not German built (Trumps making America great again factor). Tesla also appeals to the people who want a "clean green" vs the larger carbon footprint of conventional counterparts. Not sure what/if any subsidies/tax incentives are available in the US for EV's - that goes some way in the decision making process of buyers. In countries where subsidies have been scaled back, so have sales. On top of that, we've seen the German brands damaged by the dieselgate scandal. All IMHO.

Lots of ways of looking at it, IMHO, and being invested in battery materials I hope TESLA continues to do well.

Still on Tesla - an interesting video - Tearing Apart Teslas to Find Elon Musk’s Best and Worst Decisions A look inside reveals why the Model 3 risks missing out on big profits.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/201...worst-decisions
Attached File(s)
Attached File  MW_GR605_car_sa_20181011124501_NS.jpg ( 232.68K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  Pendragon  
 
Pendragon
post Posted: Oct 18 2018, 10:01 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 17 2018, 08:10 PM

blacksheep,

Don't want to get in a bun fight about it. I just stated it as a matter of record.
The link below suggests it is all models not just cherry picking as you seem to suggest.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2...t/#1b15ef667562

 
 


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