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CSL, CSL LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 11:57 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 13 2019, 10:39 AM

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“When people say it was obvious CSL would be a success, that is utterly incorrect. We were a ­typically under-scaled, low-tech, technology-dependent-on-others organisation.

“We had no export and we had a very limited future, except ambition. We refused to roll over and be another company that essentially, for good or bad reasons, gets acquired as part of a global roll-up.

“We were very determined not to see that happen without at least having an attempt to give us a future.”
Brian McNee

When it listed as a small-cap, it had revenue of $193m. It recorded revenue of $US8.5bn in 2019.
- now 90% of revenue generated offshore,
- more than 25,000 employees,
- sales in nearly 70 countries,
- has returned $US7bn ($10.3bn) in cash to shareholders via share buybacks since listing.
- R&D spend of $832mill in 2019.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 10:39 AM
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CSL will mark 25 years since listing on Monday, when its remarkable success will be recognised. It debuted on the Australian Securities Exchange at a price of $2.30, and while many questioned its future, its young chief executive Brian McNamee was prepared to have a crack.

His global growth strategy has seen it become a $244 stock, making it the second-largest publicly listed company in Australia. (This does not include BHP’s London-listed shares.)

Dr McNamee, who is now chairman of CSL, says a lot of “very decent” people who put their money in CSL, probably not understanding what it did, had been well rewarded. A $1000 investment at listing would be worth $483,591 today.
244 X 3 actually

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/c...eac9f9679795c2f



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 9 2019, 08:41 AM
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The CSL share price is near a record high of $242.10 this morning after a number of bullish notes out of popular sell side research desks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse.

The latest round of upgrades to price targets is on the back of brokers’ data points suggesting strong demand for CSL’s core immunoglobulin products used to treat patients by healthcare providers globally.

Credit Suisse and Goldmans have a $249 share price target on CSL, with Goldman’s noting the healthcare giant is guiding for FY 2020 earnings growth of 13%-17% on sales growth around 13% if you back out the one-off hit associated with the change in Chinese albumin distribution.

Over the medium term this change should actually help boost CSL’s sales and margins in a fast-growing Chinese market.

Overall, Goldman’s is forecasting 12% earnings per share growth through to FY 2022 to reach its $249 12-month share price target today.

The caveats being that CSL is already richly valued with it trading on 30x Goldman’s estimates of FY 2021’s earnings per share, or at 24x its forecast for FY 2020’s EBITDA at $249 per share.

For investors worried that CSL shares are already up 33% in 2019 alone, there are a few points to keep in mind.

As Goldmans and other brokers acknowledge CSL is a blue-chip delivering consistent double-digit organic growth mainly thanks to the strong underlying demand for its core immunoglobulin products.

This suggests it has a strong market position and a surprisingly common investing mistake is to underestimate how long these kind of strong underlying growth trends can continue.

Consider that CSL is largely servicing public healthcare sector demand where there’s unlimited and unending public pressure for more spending on public health services.

Another point to note on ‘broker valuations’ on these type of growth businesses is that the common “sum of the parts” methodology of the present value of future cash flows is directly dependent on the discount rate used.

As global interest rates fall discount rates are being lowered to boost the ‘sum of the parts’ valuations.

Genuine blue-chip growth businesses like CSL are likely to enjoy fruitier valuations from analysts today if the growth they offer continues to become more valuable in a world where other risk-on or risk-off investment returns become increasingly feeble.

Another point to note, but not easy to quantify for even Australia’s leading healthcare analysts is that CSL is growing free cash flow at double-digit rates while reinvesting heavily back into the business to research and develop new products.

The likelihood of new products such as the much vaunted CSL 112 contributing to free cash flow in the years ahead is hard to quantify in terms of future cash flows, but the point is CSL is able to invest heavily and grow profits at the same time.

Finally, CSL also offers exposure away from the soft domestic economy and provides leverage to any further weakness in the Australian dollar. This as cash rate futures traders bet on another rate cut and chatter turns to the prospect of unorthodox central bank stimulus for the local economy.
Motley Fool



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 25 2019, 03:53 PM
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CSL is the best ASX healthcare stock you can publicly buy in my opinion and has the share price appreciation to back it up. CSL is another stock that used to be government-owned, but Prime Minister Paul Keating kicked it out of the nest in 1994 for $2.30 a share (I wonder if he regrets that now). Just three weeks ago, the CSL share price hit a new record high of $242.10 – making this ASX giant a $108 billion company.

CSL has two primary focus areas: vaccinations and blood plasma products and is an R&D world-leader in both. The company also continues to focus on anti-venoms, immunology and other medical work in various fields.

An indication of this company’s quality is well told by recounting the swine flu scare back in 2009. The Federal Government commissioned CSL to manufacture the swine flu vaccine for the entire country – 21 million doses. Fortunately, it turned out that we didn’t need most of them, but if CSL is the government’s go-to company, it says a lot in my opinion.

CSL shares do trade at quite a premium (currently at around 38x earnings), but the company has paid a rising dividend every year since 2013. Currently, CSL shares are offering a 0.97% yield – based on yesterday’s share price and the most recent annual payout of US$1.85 (A$2.65) per share. This gives the company a current payout ratio of 45%. Considering that in 2013, CSL shareholders got a US$1.02 per share payout and the company’s current payout ratio is 45%, I don’t think it’s hard to conceive a doubled dividend in 10 years’ time.

- some broker spiel 🤑



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 22 2019, 01:19 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 22 2019, 12:54 PM

2005! Well done biggrin.gif



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 22 2019, 12:54 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 22 2019, 12:15 PM

The recent dip, attributed to news of refocusing / tweeking it's China strategy, has been left in the dust when CSL reported strong 💪 numbers across all divisions.

(now my biggest holding - picked up in 2005 for much less)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 22 2019, 12:15 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 22 2019, 11:53 AM

Chart - only a few hiccups along the way up smile.gif

Shortman chart heading in the right direction also - only 0.17% as at 15/8/19
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=csl
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 22 2019, 11:53 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 14 2019, 11:35 AM

record highs, following last week's strong result; closing on $240



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 14 2019, 11:35 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 14 2019, 09:53 AM

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CSL’s chief executive Paul Perreault outlined that the company’s products, across the board, had contributed to its strong result. He said its largest franchise, the immunoglobulin portfolio, was performing exceptionally well, with Privigen sales growing 23 per cent and Hizentra sales up 22 per cent.

“In part, driving the growth in demand has been our new CIDP (Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy — a debilitating neurological disorder) indication for Hizentra and the inclusion of this indication for Privigen in the US market,” Mr Perreault said.

CSL highlighted that global albumin sales grew 15 per cent when compared to the previous year, with albumin sales into China making a strong resurgence in the second half.

The results also showed that Haegarda sales grew by 61 per cent and Idelvion sales were up 40 per cent. “Haegarda, our therapy for patients with Hereditary Angioedema and Idelvion, our therapy for Haemophilia B patients, have been transformational products and the sales growth reflects this,” Mr Perreault said.

Mr Perreault added that demand for CSL’s plasma and recombinant products continued to be strong. “We expect to again outpace the market in growing plasma collections and plan to open around 40 new collection centres in fiscal 2020,” he said.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 14 2019, 09:53 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 24 2019, 03:40 PM

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A strong year for CSL with reported net profit after tax of $1,919 million, up 17% at CC and revenue up 11% at CC, reflecting;
- Continued strong growth in immunoglobulin and albumin therapies
- High patient demand for specialty products Haegarda & Kcentra
- Successful evolution of the haemophilia therapies portfolio
- Seqirus delivering on strategy, with strong profit growth

• Earnings per share $4.236, up 16% at CC

• Final dividend of US$1.00 per share (approximately A$1.48)
- Total full year dividend increased to US$1.85 per share, up 8%
- Converted to Australian currency, the total full year dividend is approximately A$2.68 per share, up 18%

• FY20 net profit after tax anticipated to be in the range of approximately $2,050million to $2,110 million at CC representing a growth over FY19 of approximately 7-10%. This growth takes into account the one-off financial headwind of transitioning to a new model of direct distribution in China




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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