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CSL, CSL LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Jun 24 2019, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE
CSL had earlier flagged that transitioning to its own distribution channel in China would have a one-off impact on FY20 financials. On Friday the company quantified this impact in the form of a decline in albumin sales by -US$340-US$370m.

Citi analysts estimate the impact on net profits will be around -6% with the impact on cash flows to be much lower, also because CSL will continue to collect outstanding receivables from existing distributors despite the accountancy change/delay.

Buy. Target unchanged at $236.60.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 9 2019, 04:00 PM
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Deutsche analyst Craig Wong-Pan has kept his Hold rating on CSL and trimmed his target price 2.5 per cent to $198 after visiting its US headquarters.

He says the heavyweight health stock has a strong revenue outlook but some margin concerns.

While gaining comfort over our FY20 immunoglobulin revenue growth forecasts and reduced risks associated with obtaining the Chinese approval of AlbuRx, he notes that US collections are moving into different demographics which in his view could lead to lower plasma yields and lower margins.

At the same time, HAE production will be increased significantly and investment is being made into manufacturing CSL112 while phase III trials are being undertaken.

“We continue to rate the stock a Hold given the limited total shareholder total shareholder return,” he says...




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 13 2019, 01:01 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 13 2019, 12:59 PM

A gain. ... But I guess it's all about expectations.

Mine have been surpassed, but that was a while ago. Happy to hold.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 13 2019, 12:59 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 13 2019, 09:05 AM

Again!
But the market did not like it.
I have loaded up some more anyway.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Feb 13 2019, 09:05 AM
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CSL boosted its half-year net profit 6.8 per cent to $US.16 billion ($1.6 billion) and raised its dividend 8 per cent to US85¢, helped by strong sales of its core immunoglobulin and speciality products.

Full-year profit will be at the upper end of the range of $US1.88 billion to $US1.95 billion set last August, an increase of 10 per cent - 14 per cent at constant currencies.

Underlying net profit rose 10.1 per cent at constant currencies, on 10.5 per cent higher sales of $US4.4 billion at constant currencies, and earnings per share aso rose 10 per cent to $US2.56.

- again!



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 26 2018, 02:17 PM
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Most investors think of a company's price-to-earnings (PE) multiple as defining its value. For them, a stock on a PE multiple of 12 times is cheap, while one on 24 times must be expensive. But is it that simple?

The PE multiple is calculated by dividing the share price by the upcoming year's earnings. This necessarily requires a forecast, and in practice most rely on the consensus derived from an average of brokers' estimates. However, as with all forecasts, these can change over time and end up wrong. Value stocks can turn out to be value traps, where the earnings are found wanting, and a seemingly low PE turns out to be anything but. ... In the end, it is just as important to focus on the "E" assumed in the PE than the multiple itself. ....

... CSL has traded for decades on PE multiples many have considered too expensive. However, from any point over this time its shares have delivered outsized returns, thereby proving they were undervalued after all. Since its float in 1994, CSL's share price has risen from 77¢ (on a split-adjusted basis) to about $170. This price rise can be split into two parts. Its forward PE has risen from 17 times to now 29 times, up about 70 per cent.

Meanwhile, its forward earnings have risen from 4.5¢ per share to $6, up more than 13,000 per cent. In taking a longer-term perspective, the example illustrates that growth is a far more important driver of valuation than the starting PE.

Accounting rules can discriminate between the growth investments of intangibles-based companies and capital-intensive ones. ... CSL invests approximately $1 billion on research and development mostly aimed at finding new medicines. This amount is immediately expensed in the year incurred and thereby reduces earnings, even though doing so creates a timing mismatch with the revenues that are usually generated some years out. CSL's earnings and PE multiple are penalised by the investment.

Were CSL's R&D investment to be ... capitalised and expensed over time, earnings would be approximately one-third higher, and the current PE multiple of 29 times would reduce to a more palatable 22 times...
Julian Beaumont is the investment director of Bennelong Australian Equity Partners



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


plastic
post Posted: Oct 23 2018, 02:56 PM
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Gonna buy GILD maybe.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 23 2018, 02:35 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 23 2018, 11:22 AM

QUOTE
3:24pm Trading volumes are heavy in CSL today, which is down nearly 2 per cent to $181.15, which takes it back to where the stock was in May. Nearly $120 million worth of CSL stock has changed hands so far today, the most of any single company.




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 23 2018, 11:22 AM
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CSL: The secrets to their success
Troy Angus, Head of Large Caps at Paradice Investment Management, says it comes down to a few main factors.
QUOTE
A relentless focus on their core competency; blood plasma therapies
Flawless execution. CSL have successfully navigated the ups and downs of the plasma therapies markets to ensure new supply came online when it was needed
A management team of the highest quality, which Troy calls “literally world class.”

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/csl-t...o-their-success

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
plastic
post Posted: Oct 22 2018, 07:25 PM
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A lot of gas coming out of this pretty quickly. Wonder what it has been set up for with a shareholder base as tight as this one.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
 


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