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OIL, Discussion
early birds
post Posted: Jun 20 2019, 11:54 PM
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“A limited war would likely push oil prices above $100 per barrel, while a major confrontation would likely drive prices above $150,” Rome said. But not all experts agree.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/heres-how-h...-with-iran.html

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$57.25 for WTI might get it tonight or tomorrow . not sure after that on TA terms.




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early birds
post Posted: Jun 13 2019, 05:11 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/oil-jumps-m...lf-of-oman.html

Brent crude spiked 3% on Thursday morning on reports of tanker explosions in the Gulf of Oman.

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i just saw the rally in front my eyes, as i bought some WTI . didn't know the news untill now.
made good short term money though. lmaosmiley.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 8 2019, 07:30 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 8 2019, 03:35 PM

In fact it gets more cruel than that, eb; the technical advances as the drillers nut out how to maximise drilling yet minimise formation damage (gotta preserve the producing zones to allow oil n gas to flow) has accelerated.
QUOTE
...jump in production has come despite a near 10% slide in the number of rigs being used..
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- was always going to happen, the oil patch has always been innovative, in the US at least



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Jun 8 2019, 03:35 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 8 2019, 11:05 AM

That’s an increase of more than 1.6 million barrels a day in the past 12 months. That rise came from shale increases from the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

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Posted Nov 14 2018, 04:09 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/oil-markets...y-in-focus.html

Most analysts expect U.S. output to climb above 12 million bpd within the first half of 2019.

"This will, in our view, cap any upside above $85 per barrel (for oil prices)," said Jon Andersson, head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management.

The surge in U.S. production is contributing to rising stockpiles.
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can't understand why the heck some major firm talking about usd$100/b not long ago??
a lot of people knows that when WTI over usd$55/b then most of US shale oil will make money hence the rig count will serge if oil stays above $55/b longer than two months
as the result----oil market washed with US shale oil now that whacked oil market . wink.gif
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i did this post last year. don't say people didn't get info about oil price here!! devilsmiley.gif

now, usd$50/b is the level that will set a lot of these shale producer decision . if oil price goes under 50 bucks then some of them can't make money, so they will reduce rigs........




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nipper
post Posted: Jun 8 2019, 11:05 AM
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USA now the swing producer
QUOTE
WTI oil [prices dropped to a two year low] after US oil stocks hit their highest level for almost two years.

At the same time estimated US daily production hit a new all-time high of 12.4 million barrels a day – but the extra oil has nowhere to go except into stockpiles.

That’s an increase of more than 1.6 million barrels a day in the past 12 months. That rise came from shale increases from the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

And that jump in production has come despite a near 10% slide in the number of rigs being used to drill for oil in the US since the end of 2018. US oil rig numbers are down from 877 in December to 800 in late May.

There were more than 1600 active oil rigs at the peak in late 2014 as global oil prices were sliding.

That US shale producers can now get more oil per rig four and a half years later tells us a lot about the enormous efficiencies and lower costs wrung out of the system by producers large and small in that time....

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/06/07/oil...-swamps-demand/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Apr 19 2019, 06:32 PM
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Over the course of the December quarter, the Brent oil price had collapsed from US$80 to US$50 due to a sharp ramp-up in US shale oil production out of the Permian Basin, which drove a rebuild in US oil inventories (signalling oversupply), and Saudi Arabia’s move to boost its production to 11 million barrels per day in expectation of additional US sanctions on Iran (which were subsequently delayed).

Since then, the picture has improved. In response to lower oil prices, US shale producers reduced their spending, with shale production capex now expected to fall by 10% in 2019, while the Saudis throttled back their production to 9.8 million barrels per day. This led the oil price to a quick rebound from US$50 back to US$69.

More importantly, we are seeing increasing evidence of a pick-up in offshore activity. Over the past three months, TechnipFMC won a number of new offshore contracts (including the Petrobras Mero project in Brazil and Eni’s Merakes field in Indonesia), and Transocean has continued to raise the tender rates for its deep-water drill ships.
Platinum Quarterly



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: Apr 4 2019, 09:30 AM
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It was a state secret and the source of a kingdom's riches. It was so important that US military planners once debated how to seize it by force. For oil traders, it was a source of endless speculation.

Now the market finally knows: Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest conventional oil field, can produce a lot less than almost anyone believed.

When Saudi Aramco on Monday published its first ever profit figures since its nationalisation nearly 40 years ago, it also lifted the veil of secrecy around its mega oil fields. The company's bond prospectus revealed that Ghawar is able to pump a maximum of 3.8 million barrels a day - well below the more than 5 million that had become conventional wisdom in the market.
https://www.afr.com/news/world/middle-east/...20190404-p51alk

- long suspected



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 28 2019, 08:28 AM
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US oil exports may be looking at a slowdown.

QUOTE
The complex web of U.S. pipelines, tanks and export terminals that’s helped make America the world’s top oil producer is causing a headache for some crude buyers.

As various types of crude pass through the supply chain from inland shale fields spanning Texas to North Dakota, they risk picking up impurities before reaching Asia -- the world’s biggest oil-consuming region. Specifically, refiners are worried about the presence of problematic metals as well as a class of chemical compounds known as oxygenates, which can affect the quality and type of fuel they produce.

Two refiners in South Korea -- the top buyer of U.S. seaborne supply -- have rejected cargoes in recent months due to contamination that makes processing difficult. Growing North American output from dozens of fields pushes everything from highly-volatile oil to sticky residue through shared tributaries and trunk pipes. Smaller carriers then take cargoes from shallow-water ports to giant supertankers in the Gulf of Mexico for hauling to far-away buyers.


Full article HERE

It may stabilise the oil price fall for a while, and negate the need for the Saudis to cut oil production.

Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 19 2018, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE
.... with WTI crude diving 7.2pc to a 16-month low of $US46.27 after WSJ said Russian output hit a record last month and EIA said US shale production will rise in January, the Energy sector will struggle again today.

Apart from supply concerns, crude oil may be the “canary in the coal mine” for the global economy, with charts now suggesting it will fall to $US36 a barrel, based on a bearish pennant pattern.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 5 2018, 06:36 PM
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The Saudi dilemma: To cut or not to cut
Oilprice.com
QUOTE
A recent report from Capital Economics said Saudi Arabia has its problems but it could withstand lower oil prices without feeling too much of a pinch. "Even if [Brent] prices fall further to $40-$50 a barrel, immediate balance of payments strains are unlikely to emerge," the report said, with its authors adding the Kingdom would be able to finance its trade deficit from its foreign exchange reserves "for at least a decade."

This suggestion is not universally accepted. Reuters' John Kemp this week offered a different perspective in his regular column on oil, noting Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves currently stand at US$500 billion, down from nearly US$750 billion in 2014 when the oil prices slumped under the weight of U.S. shale oil. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is in a major push to diversify its revenue streams and has committed a lot of money to it. It's a classic rock and a hard place situation for the Saudis.

Also, Kemp wrote, "The kingdom probably needs to keep several hundred billion dollars' worth of reserve assets on hand to maintain confidence in its fixed exchange-rate peg to the U.S. dollar and prevent a run on the currency."


read more - http://www.mining.com/web/saudi-dilemma-cut-not-cut/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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