Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

3 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 >

Mags
Posted on: Sep 28 2020, 10:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

All mainstream manufacturers (where Tesla wants to go) make the bulk of their profits off of service, repairs and parts.
Until Tesla can make the actual selling of their cars magnificently profitable, there is going to be endless refinancing, new investors and government grants.
Not investment worthy.
That companies like Tesla exist, isn't a testament to Musk or the technology, but rather a sign of how sick our currency, and by implication, our economies really are.
I still sit this one out. I'll stick with my dividend and franking credit spewing portfolio thanks.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 25 2020, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yeah, doesn't surprise me.
See the fed's are reducing the amount of info required for home loans.
That'll push banks up every time.
Canberra must be getting sore toes from kicking the can so often.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 24 2020, 02:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
the sword falls on WBC's head ----finally. time to to have good look at it i suppose !!??


I aint touching banks until the loan repayment holiday is over.
There's only $170,000,000,000 ie $170 BILLION worth of loans that the banks are unable to contact those liable for it....
It's not just the covid contact tracers that are getting ghosted.
I was actually thinking about my CBA holding and when to top it up: Ideally in the weeks before the bail out is the correct answer.
So let's see how bad these bad loans are, then we can start to analyse it properly.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 22 2020, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

So people have got their panties in a twist because the international banking system is moving crooks money around.
Who the hell do they think owns the banks???? They banks are owned by the crooks, they operate as crooks.

The banks are the 2nd greatest crooks on earth after the central banks.
Henry Ford was right:
QUOTE
It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 21 2020, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hou...t.html#comments

My spiel about immigration yesterday agrees with the above.

It all comes down to the banks and their credit availability. If they stutter at all, we're back in 2018/19 with 20% falls over 18months, or better.
And yes, housing in Australia is a ponzi: With -ve gearing rampant, most 'investors' are losing money weekly: They just hope to sell for an amount above inflation growth that allows them to be profitable.... Very few actually value add: They just want someone to pay more: How is that done?
With increased credit injected to the system.
So if existing investors need new cash (usually from new investors, as someone with a huge portfolio of -ve geared houses has terrible cashflow, they can't keep investing) from outside the system... It's a ponzi.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 20 2020, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Australia has been built on immigration


We walk a fine line when we talk on this topic...
Immigration in itself is a valid concept. But there has to be limits, let me explain.
The main reason Australia has had such large immigration (in the last 15 years) was economic: We weren't importing skills. We weren't importing refugees. We didn't import businesses.

It was economic: Per capita, we've been in recession for quite some time. Covered up by immigration. That's right, increase immigration, GDP could stay positive.

But we weren't alone: I seen a study in USA that shown under Obama's reign, for every job created, one immigrant was imported.... Co-incidence??? Nah.
So the real issues occur, when "Melbourne' is allowed to happen: let me explain.In the 2007 draught, Victoria had severe water shortage:Since Then there has not been 1cent spent on increasing water storage.BUT! The population of Melbourne has increased 25%
HAHA: So that means, Per capita, their capacity for water storage has REDUCED to 80% of what it was in the draught!!!!
This is management at it's worst.
So then the shills scream "but we've got a desal plant"... Let's talk about that then: So how's Hazelwood going??? Oh, you shut your main generator down... So you import power from Tas, NSW, and laughably SA, which has some of the most expensive power generation in the world!!!!!
So you're going to use some of the most expensive power in the world, to run a desal plant for a city that has a growing population, with a shrinking water supply per capita... (let's not forget Australia is one of the dries places on earth)

Oh, to be a rich billionaire that owns power stations, renewable energy farms and desal plants... It's impossible to lose money.
Then of course, Melbourne has social pressures: Extremely unaffordable housing; and then you have immigration from nations where multiple generations live in one residence... This is crazy, water meter usage implies around 25% of dwellings in Melbourne are un inhabited.... Extreme unaffordability, but uninhabited....
This is management at it's worst.
So now it's not just a social issue, it's also racial.....
We know the media don't report the fully on the racial issues: Ask people that live there, what goes on never makes the news... You can't argue this stuff, you can dismiss it, ignore it... but it exists.
And then the unthinkable happened.... An infectious, deadly, health department destroying pandemic lands....
Some of these dwellings have 4 generations living in them: The kids in day care/primary school, mum and dad are working, the grand parents are likely working, and the grand parents are too poor (and it's a cultural thing) and don't want to live in aged care, so they too are in the dwelling...
Kids at school.Parents at workGrand parents at work.....
3 attack vectors for the virus to enter a house with elderly, at risk, individuals......
this is why the towers were locked down, with no one to leave: Because there was simply no way that even 'socially distancing' these guys in the community would protect those elderly: Impossible.
As it unfolds over the coming years, we'll see the masses wake up to the fact that the governments have mismanaged everything, except protecting their rich corporations: And this is to be expected, because the voters were too busy watching footy, flying to bali or disney land, or lining up to by the next iPhone... It's a complete disaster: It happened on the peoples watch, but they weren't watching.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 20 2020, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Unless there is another earth shattering event (like a war, Trump winning retaining his job as POTOS, or Collingwood winning the AFL premiership), I suespect we will stay at these levels for while.
Have stated to sell down my overly large gold portfolio to shift into property (not houses, but bare land),


Interesting observations.
Firstly I agree in concept with your land idea: Hard assets are where the value is. But must be wary of not over paying.
The world (Australia particularly) is a wash will middle class stimulus spending: Job seeker, job keeper and the .much less spoken about super redraws. Speaking with those in the car industry it's totally nuts: Used cars are selling like crazy: People that couldn't get a car loan (and I mean how dire are your finances if you can't borrow for a car?) have now got $20 k out of super and gone nuts: Interesting they bought used over new, the new car industry is stuffed, it's in a 2 year slide, with only ABN buyers and instant write off keeping the ute sales alive.
I'm even hearing of families 'pooling' their super money so the kids can get a house deposit... good lord.
So I personally wouldn't sell precious metals: I don't really see anything as risk free ATM.
That said, the pandemic is nowhere near ended, claims of a vaccine are optimistic, if not outright fraudulent.
We've seen upto 1/3rd of the world in some form of lock down, here in Australia 20% of the economy is in a police state to remain at home >23hrs a day.
And yet stock markets are near record highs???
Pullleeeaassseee. This doesn't make one scrap of sense.
If your parking your money in assets that are propped up by borrowing, jobkeeper, jobseeker or super redraws... be vary vigilant: Crash is likely incoming.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 18 2020, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
It makes me wonder if the younger generation have been dumbed down so much that they can't do basic maths anymore.
If you point out the BS and obvious profit scamming by big business you inevitably get called a climate change denier.
Seems there's more currency in virtue signalling than any common sense reality.


They actually don't know anything. Literally.
One of the big hardware/nursery chains in USA couldn't work out why the millenials weren't spending with them: So they hired a consultancy to study it for them.
They found that many millenials had trouble with hardware related tasks and had all but given up on plants. Hence they simply didn't frequent there.
Ok, so why the trouble with plants: Of course many are working 3 or 4 jobs, live in cramped appartments or condo's so didn't have either time or room for gardening.... Ok, dig a bit deeper, what was the bad experience with plants???
A huge percentage had bought plants and they all died...
Keep digging... did you water them? Fertilize them? Keep bugs away for them???
Why did they die??? Turns out they tried to grow their plants indoors: They had no concept of photosynthesis!!!!
OMG. This is literally what they found.
So they started offering free, night courses on plant care, and the millenials trickled back...
As a business owner, I rarely talk social topics, I mainly talk with other business owners: The big gripe with youngens (ie under 40) is they are scared to do anything: scared to try anything. the literally can only do what school taught them: Sit there and read from a screen. They have no problem solving skills: Nada, none.
I commonly hear that it's useless trying to hire someone with the skills you need, because even if they're 'qualified' in something, they don't know it. they've passed a competency course, but they don't know the topic. I've even heard of big multinationals hiring uni grads, and tying them into 5 year contracts, because for the first 3, they are actually unproductive and a drag on the business until they get real skills and knowledge: then in years 4 and 5 they may start to earn the company profit.
And well, how the hell does small business afford to have unproductive staff for 3 years?? they can't. Hence the impossible job market ie. 13 people on welfare for every available job.
It's a shocking, shocking world we live in: It's never been more important to have parents that spend time with their kids and teach them the world: Because our schools sure as hell aren't: it's gotten that bad, I know multimillionaire business owners that will only hire kids who worked in their parents business: If their not from a small business family, they are unemployable in these guys eyes.
It's that bad out there.
I watch in horror as people take part in protests, they have no idea of the core mission of that group: A major one is sweeping the globe over the last 6 months: The core goal is to dismantle the western family unit, and return to a tribal, shared ownership economic system. Outrageous. Yet millions are out there marching, not aware of what the group their working for want.
SMH
Just protect your family.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Sep 17 2020, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
The talk of the US dollar losing its glitter as THE reserve currency has been out for at least the 12 to 15 years that I can recall, and yet we are no closer to its demise.

Agreed: The USA has the most open, transparent financial market of size in the world: Something China can't even begin to compare to.
The talk of China becoming THE currency is a joke, marketed by people who have no idea how the real world works.
USA would need to completely mess up it's taxation and police system to lose it's status: Something that is years and years off.
The USA remains the safest place to make money, probably second is UK. But UK has no interest in becoming a huge innovator/tech centre like USA.
It's no accident that all the biggest, most powerful, influential companies are USA founded: No where else can Apples, Facebooks, Microsofts, Googles be grown and nurtured, then celebrated. (That's an important point: Look at musk, a crazy loonie at best: A total liability at worst, but he is celebrated: Compare that to Gerry Harvey, and most Aussies can't stand the guy! But he's almost certainly smarter and safer to invest with than musk with his rampant losses and twitter tirades).
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Sep 17 2020, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

When you're a famous, rich 'dude', you aren't in 'wealth creation' mode AKA risk taking mode: So it's about backing only winners.
If you watch Shark Tank/Dragons Den, you'll see the 'entrepreneurs' have very little 'entrepreneur' about them: They only want to back winners, those with definite runs on the board ie. know their numbers, show growth, no terrible debt numbers or shady shareholders etc etc.
So what we have is a billionaire (who appears to have made his money in a land grab on the internet: It's just sour grapes from me) who's upset he's 'out of the loop' in regards to the government policy, and who is so biased with his 'high tech' background that he believes 'new' is the answer to all our problems.
The energy sector is in such a mess in Australia because of two reasons:A: Other than the second reason, there is no co-ordinated objectiveB: Provide guaranteed profit to those that bough the power grid (it's in the contract, they are guaranteed a profit: Look it up, it's unbelievable)
So then we have the green lobby who want renewables.... who don't realise they are being manipulated by big business to encourage the government to subsidize these big businesses if they do green stuff: But the reality is it's a total failure: Wind generators that will never offset the energy used to build them... terrible environmental impacts in far away nations to build the batteries for 'green' first world nations... solar panels that are now beginning to reach end of life in a seriously large number...... But no operation in Australia can recycle them.....
On and on it goes. It's a total cluster #$%

But it's all just total BS, because in the end, you hear countries around the world setting up 10 coal generators, or 30 or 50... or India, setting up 400!!!
Why are we destroying our own industry here when we contribute 1% of total Co2 emissions??? Which incidentally is the food for plants... Nature achieves equilibrium... It's a total circus... You have big business in EU being paid to catch and dispose of CO2 emissions... how do they do it?? they pump it into their green houses to speed up crop growth.
LOL they're getting paid to increase private profits!!!!! They are taking excessive taxes from working families to give to billion $$$ corps who pay no tax, to increase their profits. This is simply unbelievable. But it's happening, right now, all the info and evidence is right there for the taking and analysing: But the public are too focused on their own BS to look beyond their front gate.

Like I say, the whole thing is a jumbled mess, with no direction: Other than big business walking away with billions and billions of taxpayer dollars.
Pumped hydro... never heard anything so stupid in my life: Let's not only waste power pushing water up hill: Let's also tie up water, the ultimate resource... WTF, who are these idiots that believe this stuff and then put their names to it. There can only be ONE reason anyone could honestly lobby for this stuff... $$$$$$$$$

It's idiocy at it's finest. Having to generate 10kw, to pump water, to return 7kw....
You're down 3kw for no reason: For no bloody reason... so where's the benefit?
of course the company that was paid to pump the water, and then gets to sell it.
Good for the consumer?Good for industry?Good for jobs??
Total and utter BS.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Sep 16 2020, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'm totally missing something: Can anyone explain to me ELI5 (Explain to me Like I'm 5 years old) what the government gains by locking people home and collapsing the economy??
I just don't see how this 'benefits' the government.
It's for people own good, and the benefit of the health system, and society at large in terms of social and economic breakdown.
I can't do anything but shake my head at the anit-maskers.... Seriously, getting people to cover most of their face is a security nightmare: The government really doesn't want peoples ID covered, but here they are advising mask use... and the anti maskers get all emotional about it.
I now understand how the great empires through history failed, and am watching the west go through the early stages right now. Endless wars for private profit, dumbed down education system, 'everyone' is now considered a 'minority', people marching and protesting in movements they don't understand the main goal of, endless government deficits, privatisation of important, crucial utilities, celebrities with no skill or usefullness, total lack of craftmanship, even from 'skilled' trademan, total lack of quality from local and imported products, university degrees of no usefull skillset being needed to gain even entry level casual retail jobs, moaning from the people even when the government is protecting them...
it goes on and on.
**Oh well, just protect yourself and your family** it's all you can, and should aim to do.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 15 2020, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

And presents us with another reason to question why state governments exist.
This is the problem when Canberra want's to brag about GDP numbers, but states are on the hook for the health system.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 15 2020, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Thanks mate: I often miss these things (mailing address isn't my residence, and I hate email).
Given the entire global out look, and the crazy central bank interventions: Owning more infrastructure has to be one of the smarter moves.
***I'm a buy and hold guy, not a quick buck trader type***
If you're looking for instant profits, I wouldn't know where to look.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 14 2020, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yes, an agent we become familiar with over the last two years while shopping around called us the other day: Here in Adelaide it must have a yard, and the other hot seller is the Barossa, again must have yards.
Seems the sheeple woke up: There's no need to live in crammed in apartments and or unit style housing in Australia.
Of course what it technically is, again, is a transfer of wealth: Not everyone has the time or the budget to afford properties with yards, or the travel times needed.
The real estate and housing sector are what will make or break Australia: We should have crashed the housing party years ago: But we didn't.
Now it's gonna take the banks to lend freely in a post covid world to stop the whole thing collapsing.
Is that gonna happen???
My senses say no.
Central banks pumped up with adrenaline and endless rolls of paper says otherwise.
And betting against a central bank is crazy.....
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 11 2020, 11:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

And here's the response from CLF:
CLF Response to WAM bid
I currently think this is the correct course. Anyone read into it differently?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 11 2020, 10:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Thanks... Seems we're on the same page.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 9 2020, 11:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Just catching up on my paperwork: I don't hold wam, never looked hard, but seemed too 'trendy' for me.
I see they've made a takeover play for CLF (Consolidated Leaders Fund, ex Aberdeen Leaders) I can't seem WAM's angle beyond trying to scoop up a fund with a share price < NTA's. I guess that's one way to get 'growth'.
Anyone following this one?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 9 2020, 10:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

ALR was renamed Consolidated Leaders Fund: No thread for CLF exists????

It's now under an attempted take over by WAM.
Seems to be deceptive from WAM complaining of new 'poorly management': When the actual people involved have managed CLF for the last 2 1/2 years.
I suspect WAM is just asset stripping ie: Buying a stock with share price<NTA to generate 'growth'.
Thoughts?


  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 9 2020, 09:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
I don't know why they would stop at a mere $800 billion, why not just sell the lot while they can get something useful for it.


'Cos (IMO) we've got about a decade left of this non-sense, MMT, fiat, fractional reserve, Federal Reserve Saves All, BS system.
And in the mean time, like it or not, USA is still the largest, most open, transparent capital market in the world. Something the 'current' China will never achieve.
A USA treasury is like fertilizer: You know what it is, you know where it come from, you know how it stinks, but it serves a purpose and has use.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 7 2019, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

The panic from Canberra says otherwise. APRA, RBA and ScoMO all throwing fuel on the fire to keep it going, BUT!!!
The real issue is house prices have never fallen in Australia with out an external economic shock, interest rate rises, or unemployment going skyward, until 2017.
2017 was the pivoting point, 3 things all line up in late 2017:Mortgage growth died.RBA base currency growth diedOur dollar continued to slide, even without RBA increasing supply
And what happened in 2017? Housing topped.
*** Also very important to note, this was well before the royal commission was even created **** This is a good old fashioned, debt fuelled bubble bust *****

Now we have investors leading the way in arrears. All the 'bulls' myths have been blown apart.My favourite being 'theres cash on the sidelines that wont allow prices to fall'.Of course, that cash didn't exist, and the investors what would buy into a falling market have vanished.
*** Again, this was before royal commission, nothing to do with 'lending changes' *****

Even though the bulls said lending was sound, the banks admitted it wasn't and then self regulated.
We've now completed a 9 month per GDP recession. Amazing. It's barely even been in the news.

Retail figures are terrible, car sales are dire (and mostly dual cabs which are 'business purchases').
I doubt there'll be any life in the housing market for the rest of this year, and then next year when ScoMo's FHB insurance scheme fails to push prices significantly higher, the masses will realize we are half way into a multi year bear market that wont recover to 2017 prices anytime soon.
The real concern (for me) was does RBA protect the dollar and our economy, or do they protect the banks bottom line.They chose to protect the banks, with disregard to the dollar, and pin their hopes on Iron Ore keeping our dollar stable.
Fancy cutting rates as your country posts a record trade surplus... That alone is telling.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Record low interest rates will likely coincide with record low $AU.
Just a thought.
Off the back of a record trade surplus, the market all but locks in a interest rate drop to the lowest in modern history.
How stuffed is our internal economy really???
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 12:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

But there's a hidden ugliness not addressed in that article.
The two previous lot default peaks occurred under rising interest rate conditions: The first in 2008/09 preGFC when our mining boom was humming, and the second time in 2012 when interest rates were trying to revert to 'normal'... Since then rates have only fallen or remained steady.
We have falling house prices (fasted on record) yet:No interest rate rises.Stable/low unemploymentGood terms of trade
....yet the housing market is falling apart.
Why? Easy, the credit growth, it's the weakest on record. Check our currency supply, it stopped growing in 2017... Right when the housing boom peaked... Co-incident?? Of course not. It's also when the slide in the dollar got it's grove on.. Co-incident? Of course not.
In 2017 the australian view of property shifted seismically. The 'need' to take out monster debts to pay for home become a bad idea for the masses. Once the Chinese money stopped flowing, the whole market tanked. And it's not going to turn around anytime soon.
That housing is tanking so hard, without any negetive news to trigger it, is the telling sign. This is the 'new' normal. People are not expecting to make 10% per year on their properties anymore.
The real 'crash' is going to occur when our interest rate rises. I know the MSM are talking rate cuts, maybe 1 or 2, but our dollar is going to get punished, meaning we will be importing inflation. If they try QE, our dollar is going to get punished.
The only tool they have to prop our dollar is raising rates.... At some stage this is going to NEED to occur.
Wait for the MSM to start talking of our falling dollar, which will then move to talk that the RBA held the rates too low, for too long, which the public will buy/believe.
There's hell to be unleashed at some point: But I've been sprouting that for years now........
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Mar 21 2019, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Anyone going into coal stocks for a buy and hold?
The way I see it, governments around the world are running massive debts and deficits, I just can't see them transitioning over to other sources as fast as they say they will over the next 10/15 years.
Coal still produces IMO, the most reliable, cost effective source of electricity.
Have retail investors been sold a lie?
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Mar 19 2019, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. Will dig into it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 19 2019, 09:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Any thoughts? I wanted to pick some up at <$2, but real life got in the way, then the dividend doubled... and now it's $2.10...
Thoughts?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 19 2019, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

And now we see the click frenzy on line.
Haven't we been here before?
How did that work out for DSE?
Jeepers, how the once mighty has fallen....

Let's see they blew up a start up by trying to be premium over bunnings cut cost presentation...
Now they have an existing, and once profitable chain and they go thermo nuclear on discounts???

Idiots.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Dec 1 2018, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I believe very little will come from this RC. The banks may bleed a few customers, be hit with a few million dollar fines. But that's like an electrician having his phone service cut for a few days (bleed customers) and a $200 fine. Wont even feel it.
In fact, it's the time the directors needed to 'take off' to appear at the RC that probably hurt the most.
When you have a guy like Ken Henry, slumped in his chair on the stand, earning $15,000 per week (I assume he's also on other boards, so what's his real income??) treat it as a 13 year old obnoxious boy does the class teacher, then screw up his nose and say he'll never be compliant, and how would you monitor it anyway.... (This from a guy who was in charge of the tax system...funny how the tax system says it knows all...)
A total joke.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 30 2018, 08:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Shows the difference that inspired, enabled and capable boards/management/staff can make compared to an old boys club.
I have no sympathy for Coles or Woolies: They've had years to adapt to online: Their attempt sucks. They've had years to adapt to Aldi. Their attempt...well, did they even attempt to compete?
They've treated their customers and supply chain like scum, never evolved and wonder how these multinationals can waltz in here and roll them over and screw them.
Amazon look 10 years ahead, state what they want, then go make it happen. Investing bucket loads of $$$$$$$$. Do coles and woolies invest $$$$$, nah, they throw a bit of cashflow around, but don't build and invest. That's the real difference.

One day Amazon will be old, slow and inept. But they'll take off with billions before that happens.

  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 15 2018, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
And as an aside: "18/24 months of falling prices. ..we're ~ 6 months off a federal election..."
.... anyone might suspect the coalition would be unfussed if it loses the next election


It's amazing how quiet Canberra is on this: both sides, Labors not even beating the drum. I suspect 2 reasons:A: They know the gig is up: politically increasing prices will be suicide with voters from these levels.b: They are prepared to support the banks, not the mortgage holders. The bail in laws were passed in February, with barely any noise at all.
As for the current PM, I see him as nothing more than a nightwatchmen. Nightwatchmen: Wikipedia
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 15 2018, 11:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

This is only just getting started.
We are over 12 months into falls now.Car sales falling for 7 months.Consumer confidence in the gutter.
And the kicker: This is the first time, EVER, Australian house prices have fallen with out central bank intervention: It is falling under it's own weight.
Now the double kicker:Understand that time on market is growing, stock on market is growing, $$$$ turnover at auction is halved.... etc. etc.
And then learn that we have just set another record for crane numbers in Australia.
1 in 10 is employed in construction..... There's a hell of a drop off in approvals and starts that's coming down the pipe line. Just as all these apartments hit the market... against 18/24 months of falling prices.
We're ~ 6months off a federal election....
None of these things will give buyers any confidence: this is the worst case scenario we could have dreamt up. Just as ~$700b of IO loans roll over, and $500m of liar loans continue to float about......
Those leveraged too hard will lose it all. Those who avoid the fall out will be part of the greatest wealth transfer in our countries history.
Hold on.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 29 2018, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Can someone please explain what the hell "pent up demand" is???????????????
Oh these commentators infuriate me:
Of course there's demand: There's demand for Ferrari's too: But unless you can afford it, does it even count???
I'm confused about the market, here in Adelaide the last couple of places we were interested in went for way above what we expected, yet ordinary 3 bedroom, single bath places have definitely been kicked in the teeth.
I suggest this shows a frail/fragmented market. The agents tell me it means those with money are still buying and don't care about price.
I say we're still in a bubble, and the disaster is no where near unfolding fully.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 11 2018, 08:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

The greenies are really hurting their own cause here. There's no doubt pollution is a major problem, real, toxic, deadly pollution. This get's pushed aside while 'activists' run around claiming CO2 is a disaster.

If you wanna talk 'average temperature' changes, just consider a lovely spring day: It's 24 degrees in the sunlight, then if it's a cloudless night, within hours it's 8 degrees. Or if there's clouds, it's 20 degrees.
Related to CO2? Nah. (You NEVER hear them mention that the greenhouse gases has one component that's accountable for 70% of it's effect, and it's called water vapour.......)

And isn't it interesting that government weather stations are always at air ports??? And if that isn't enough, a private study in USA found a significant proportion are installed in a jet wash path :-0
CO2 is one of the most obscene theories that has gained traction. It's simply mind-blowing how smart individuals fall for this crap: But it's a well run campaign, just like the descrimination movement, if you're not 100% on board with them you're a denier.... Huh? After 100+ years of spitting CO2 into the atmosphere, has it changed? Not on a level they can even measure or prove... but if you disagree with their theory you're instantly a cave-man, capitalist pig, denier.
Blah.
No wonder the rich get richer, it's so easy to manipulate the masses.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 26 2018, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

The problem with comparing the big four to Kodak and blockbuster?

Kodak and blockbuster weren't running the government (sorry, lobbying blink.gif ) and regulating their position into a monopoly.
Tell me, what other industry has the top 4 players, and their regulators and central controllers meet in the same room as the federal treasurer???

It's not normal, in any other industry, the ACCC would bust you for price collusion at the minimum. But with banks, it's expected!

Not saying the banks wont be challenged, just that I think that analysis is a little thin.

(And lets not forget CBA has a market cap twice as big as Lehmans, so buying out any little pesky competitor isn't an issue.... Oh and again, this behaviour is encouraged and blessed by the ACCC.... try doing that in other industries)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 21 2018, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Triage, what you say is mostly true. Corporates have messed with the bounds of what is considered normal or not, to push their agendas. But we should all know that right??

Anyways, I'd recommend reading: Done: The deals that change the world

As a BBC journalist, I'd seen a few of his doco's, his work is pretty trustworthy.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 18 2018, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Not sure an RC is really needed. No doubt the sector is riddled with horror and corruption. But what good is airing the dirty laundry gonna do?

What happened to the old days of announcing a 6 month task force, and then a 7 point plan and some funding?

Trouble is, in western societies when your old and poor, no-one cares: That's one of my rich mates quotes, and a huge part of what drove him to chase wealth.

A few percent of the population are taking note of the Banking RC which shows average people being ripped off left right and centre: Are they really gonna care about the RC for old folk? Nah.

If it's liberals attempt to build some credibility, they fail.
If it's the lib's attempt to destroy their brand, they succeed.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 17 2018, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
This unnamed American investor seems to think that the Royal Commission will have a major impact on Australian banks in that by triggering the banks to tighten lending the RC will bring about the bursting of the housing bubble.


Its interesting, this has been up for months but is now getting mentions everywhere. As for who he is:

http://www.longfordcapital.com/leadership He is chairman and MD.

Now:
A: I'd never heard of litigation finance: Blows my mind, but... I'm not surprised (https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-repli...94933&p=795 to see his real motives)
B: I would love to know who he is or planning to finance.

He's not some hot shot fund manager that has a 85% chance of failure like the rest, this mob mean business.

I'm sure we'll hear more of him in the future.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 11 2018, 06:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Why there is not ongoing and daily renewed outrage about what is being uncovered by the banking rc amazes me. Why the ABC (and perhaps other local MSM outlets (?)) does not think these relevations are newsworthy is so disappointing.


Sadly I'm not surprised, perhaps on the scale of things maybe. But the reason the MSM doesn't bring these to the public is pretty simple. The MSM exist to sell advertising. They need mass audiences. This is Australia, the debt fuelled property hungry monster, where 80% of all private wealth is invested in property. To alienate, or reduce faith in the banks, would be to insult your audience, and effectively cutting off the hand that feeds you.

Newspapers only exist because of the property section these days, the paper is a total loss making disaster.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was some 'gentlemens' agreement about how to report on the RC, and besides, I think it's just the Australian version of the panama papers...... Once it's results are made public, within 3 or 4 months no one will remember anything about it.

Sad how an aussie can tell you who kicked how many goals in the 84 grand final, but wouldn't have a clue about their homeloan. Here's a bit of trivia, why is it that APRA said IO loans were only 40% of the market, and that's been wound back to 30%, but independent surveys of brokers report 80%....

Yeppa. No one at that RC has their house in order: But given ASIC can't regulate because APRA are in the way, and APRA say their powerless because ASIC is the regulator, this should surprise no one.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Sep 10 2018, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Ol' Musky..... SMH.

Ok, so to be fair, the state in which the radio show was done, HAS legalized hooch, so it's not as rebelious as first presented.

BUT, if Jobs, or Branson, was swigging back on a fine scotch..... You'd ask questions.

For the record, I'm terribly biased AGAINST any form of drug use (bit rich coming from someone who uses too many pain killers: Advance arthritis in a younger body will do that).

What needs to happen in my eyes, is a huge cap injection by a controlling interest, leaving Musk as face of company (let's face it, Telsa is fan boi driven), but his power is limited to that of a consultant.

I've said before, his multi-billion dollar competitors, haven't gone hard after pure electric vehicles, as I assume, they just can't prove a strong enough business case. Hell, Ford and GM are in enough trouble just burning pump fuel Mish Talk Blog Ford Piece.

In it's current form, Tesla is in a death spiral.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 6 2018, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yep, Nippers answer looks about right. I don't know why people get hung up on 'gross' profit, especially given it excludes massive variables including labour.

For example an up class restaurant, with massive margins on food eg. a $10 steak being sold at $80, will have a great gross profit.

But the net profit (ie. bankable) will be smashed due to expensive chefs, waiters, welcoming staff, and advertising and fitout costs/renewals.

I've heard, the small business world, saying such as 'value is 4X gross profit', in which case most small, labour based businesses are worth millions.... Good luck ever getting anyone to pay those millions.

I'd rather focus on net profit, gross is interesting, but not a real key input for me.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 25 2018, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
WTF---- isn't it this guy of City down graded TLS to 2.20 after the it is under 2.80ish not long ago???
what a smart a$%SS gets everyone sell and he sneak in bought the crap himself.


Oldest trick in the book. Don't listen to what they say, study how they do it.

That's long been my complaint about banks being financial advisors: The stuff they are advising as buys is the same stuff their back end boys are off loading. Or if they know somethings on a lift, they buy it themselves, then sell near the top. That books most the profit to themselves, but makes the customer think they know what they're doing, as they own the hot stock.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 25 2018, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

New PM... Who voted X times against the royal commission....

Criminal charges being threatened left, right and centre.

Advice rip offs, fee rip offs, super annuation rip offs, falsified lending documents, on and on I could go.

Kinda reminds me of the Panama papers.....

Remember when all the rich were found to be hiding wealth off shore, evading taxes and nothing happened????

I think that's were we are.....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 20 2018, 11:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Early birds, I agree. It's a dog act: Take their money to grow, but then burn them once you're personally wealthy beyond belief, for running a loss making machine.

Although, to be fair: The entire USA market has bogus valuations at present. Let's wait and ride the next crash out. I'm sure Tesla wont be the only company beat into oblivion.

(Is uber still private? Last I knew it too was burning cash at ridiculous rates... Interesting that you can burn cash when you don't really own any physical assets, and pay your 'workers' below minimum wage.... The whole world economy is a sham at present.)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 18 2018, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
t seems that today's cathedrals are being built to sell mazdas and hyundais. Some of the local showrooms for car sales are massive structures of glass and glitter, gone are the days of these things being sold from actual caryards


You hit the nail on the head: Car dealerships aren't about selling cars. They're about selling loans. They are little more than a 'branded' bank. The car is just the vehicle they use to do it. I've spent over 10 years in dealerships, the highest paid guy is the finance manager. I could bang on for hours about the sick, twisted management of the auto industry. But you're comment is 100% spot on, if you check the fine print on the finance deals, they are stinky. Many have sickening balloon payments, designed so the car is worth less than the payment, making most people need to roll the balloon payment into financing a new car: Not to mention their crappy 'fixed price' service schedule ensures that the car is in need of a massive service and repairs once the cheap servicing expires. How do the neighbours afford new cars every 5 years??? This is how.

Just like almost NO_ONE is talking about the housing market collapsing due to all the interest only loans rolling over to principal and interest, no one wants to talk about how they got stitched up on car finance.

It's so bad, that when we went to buy our current car, cash, with no trade-in, we were told to go to another dealership because 'we don't do cash sales'!!!!! This is true, I actually kinda knew the salesman we ended up buying from and you want to know how much they made on it???? $184. No, I'm not missing a zero.

Ask to see the trade ins in the back yard, at your local dealership, and they'll show you dozens of modern cars traded in..... Ask them if that's all they have... Of course not, they all have yards elsewhere full of the bloody things! They can't sell them!!!! When recession hits, watch the dealers fold because:
A: Credit will dry up, and no one will be able to finance a new car
B: All the trade ins are on finance,...... They can't met their debt repayments, and fold.

I've seen it in the rural dealers, machinery especially, a bad harvest or two, and the local machinery shop fails.

So next time you drive past a massive glass front dealership, just think, if dealerships only make 5% of their profit off new car sales (this is true, new car margins are impossibly thin, as i showed).... where does the rest come from????? 55% is from parts and service (which is repeat business, so you'd expect a fair chunk of profit there)....leaving 40% of their profit.... coming from?????? Finance and after sales (ie tint, paint protection etc)....

That's how they're paying for that flashy-ness.... Not how you'd expect at all. Unless you've been on the inside and see how it really works.

When someone offers you easy, cheap credit....... Be wary, very, very, wary. There's a reason they give cheap credit, and it aint because they like you.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 18 2018, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I find it hard to imagine a world without Tesla (no, not a fan boi at all). I just find it hard to believe there wont be govco intervention. I maybe wrong.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 18 2018, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Doesn't that all sit perfectly? ASIC didn't intervene because APRA were supposed to???

If I run my business finances in the same way a bank does, I would have to declare I'm insolvent and fold. If not, I face criminal charges/jail time.

APRA is the cloak that allows them to do as they please, completely opaquely. And appear to be well structured and regulated.

As I get older, I come to understand what the real, old rich men mean when they say that the 95% are wrong/clueless/hopeless/liars etc.

We're lead to believe, the bigger and flasher the building the more reputable and genuine the business: When it's almost the direct inverse! Banks, of course, always have spectacular buildings. Tumble down mom and pop businesses almost always provide a better outcome than their corporatized competitors (there are exceptions, but this is the rule).

The best source of all this banking shady-ness I've come across is:
"Creature From Jeckyll Island"

Well worth a read: I'm told there are pdf's of it floating around.

Sadly Triage, I don't have any faith that much will be changed. Too many rich, powerful families rely on things the way they are.

And as I just read on another forum.... house prices are falling, our Prime Minister is about to be challenged for his job again, wages are stalled/reversed, employment is highly volatile, we face a once in 3 decade recession inducing draught and what are the masses doing??????

Fighting each other at Coles over 5cent plastic mock ups of corporate branded toys.......

Why would they change anything??? The can get away with murder... or better! Charging fees to dead people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 9 2018, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Celeb endorsements are a laugh: 9 times out of 10 the celeb is actually financially broke eg: What a laugh

But, the public ie. the masses are easily triggered and manipulated with regard to celebrity.

A wise man once told me:
Poor people talk about people ie. sportsmen, models, tv stars etc.
Middle class people talk about events ie. footy, cricket, theatre
Rich people talk about ideas, ie. the next billion $$$$ concept

And that's very, very accurate I think.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Aug 8 2018, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

SMFH.

What can one say???

If I was an investor in tesla (yeah, if. I'm most certainly not), I would be out now. If he doesn't take it private from here, whats to stop the drop back to yesterdays open????

Shorting is dangerous. I stand by that.

But musk is just too erratic to be investable.

Making statements like this one, has to be borderline fraud. It's certainly market manipulation.

But watch the authorities do nothing.

Again.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 7 2018, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Sure, the property bulls have a point about needing increasing dwellings.

But they completely ignore the fact that residents per dwelling has been falling for years.

Yes, were are building faster than our population is growing.... and that was before the apartment boom.

More than 10% of all housing is un-used. But we keep building... and the 'investors' and the FOMO's kept bidding up the prices. Stupidly.

I'm currently reading the book that inspired the movie "The big short", and of course the similarities between the markets is astonishing.

The only (and I mean only, the bulls claim Australia is different to USA, I'm not seeing it) difference was the issuing of loans (I forget the full name, something negative atmortimising something) where nothing is paid. NOTHING, the interest payments just get lopped on top of the owed principal....because, you know 'housing only goes up', so when they sell they can' pay the loan in full....

Financial geniuses????? Hardly. Genius salesman??? Absolutely.

I like one line in the book, aimed at the FED: How do you make poor people who can't afford to buy property feel like they can? You make the cost of money so cheap they can't refuse.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 4 2018, 09:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I get howled down for this: But the LNP has done nothing to support the market (not the government should be involved to begin with!), but with MT being an ex-banker, and the polls on the nose, I suspect they'll let it slide, quietly wishing for it to gather pace..

So they can do the right thing: Bail outs!

Only the other day I was reading about one bloke who got a text message or warning from his app that he was over drawn by $2k..... Rings the bank, they tell him, yes we took that money... Why??? Because 2 loans come off IO, and have rolled over to P&I loans, so we take that extra $2k....

Guy has no idea this was coming... But it's ok for now he says, it's "only" $2k a month, and he has enough in the off set account to ride it out for 'a bit'... but he's worried, as a third loan is also soon to roll over to P&I...

Haha... What idiots. They are everywhere. I've seen them do this with car loans: Have no idea a balloon payment is due... Have to refinance into a new car....

Now they're doing with their houses...except they can't refinance, because of apra's changes, so they are stuffed paying P&I repayments they can't make....

I've cried wolf for years on housing. I've never doubted I was wrong, the market just has far less brain cells than I expected. I still believe housing will hit year 2000 levels + inflation (so around 1.4 times the dollar value of 2000)... So here in Adelaide that puts housing back around (give or take) around $250k....

and guess what? With median wages in adelaide of around $44 k (IIRC), that's about 4 times earnings.... bang on historic trend. That year 2000 figure plus inflation for Sydney??? Around $490k.... and again... around 4 times the average income there....

The wealth effect that drove Australia alongside the mining boom, is going to hit full reverse: And like the reverse thruster on a jet, it isn't pretty, it's messy, lots of sideways motion. But things get stopped rapidly.

You all prepared for this right?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 31 2018, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I didn't know USA small business didn't use accountants/packages as much. No surprise there I guess given that the ATO seems to have been able to seek revenue from every possible crack in the economy.

No surprise there's been a change at the top. I thought early on it looked to be a pump and dump stock: founders/directors earning millions while no profits made, but huge loans being drawn...... Now they sell down their holdings.... I've seen this story before.

Then chuck in the new cash grabbing managers, which will simply bleed them of customers:

Xero discussion thread

It's a dangerous game, as xero had an almost cult like status amongst small business and their accountants. Destroy that, and their cost of customer acquisition will raise even higher!

And I suspect I'm not alone in seeing people leaving cloud based stuff and return to desktop, or even locally server hosted stuff. With all the telecommunication/NBN dramas, power issues, etc having your own local copy is a smart move. Never mind the privacy stuff.

I'll give this one a wide berth
  Forum: NZX

Mags
Posted on: Jul 25 2018, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Nice catch....

I'm always whinging how hard it is in small business to make any meaningful profit. Most people assume you lie. A mate of mine has just become manager of one of my main suppliers...... Turns out I'm one of his only customers with an upto date, paid up account. Most of my competitors are months behind... Yet they drive the fancy cars, fancy shop fronts etc.....

Not paying your suppliers makes your cash flow look great. Right?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 24 2018, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'm no musk fan, didn't really celebrate him at his peak, but the last 12 months have been interesting to watch.

The Falcon Heavy launch was a important part of history, launching a car was a bit weak I thought, but still, that sized rocket, and re-usable??? That's awesome. (I always wanted to see a shuttle launch: When I visit USA I will see a Falcon launch)

Anyways, I'm surprised with that first news.com article, because it completely covers up Musks role in digitizing consumer spending and unleashing internet transfers.

But what we see, is someone who 'can' get stuff done, but mostly in a vaccuum (paypal, no competitors at the time) or government sponsored (I'm assuming spacex receives huge handouts). But when faced with a real, mechanical, retail based industry, with real competition, he's way out of his depth.

Billion dollar companies, that spend over a billion dollars per car, have mostly stayed out of electric vehicles, because the market is yet to be feasible. It's that simple.

Maybe tesla should have built itself like a smaller manufacturer such as Lotus: Builds beautiful cars, that do exactly what they promise, but they ring Toyota and ask for drivetrains. No point developing what someone else has.

So, should telsa have made a model three using prius running gear??? They would almost certainly be profitable, then keep pressing on with their high end full electric stuff.

A wise, wise, business lecturer once told me: No-one get's this, it's the little jobs that allow you to do the big jobs.

It's simple cashflow managment: His son was an electrician, who he banned from doing large industrial and commercial jobs until he had steady smaller consumer grade work. The cashflow of just big stuff is horrible, and brings many down.

I reckon Tesla have done exactly this: Too focused on being the first electric car mass producer.

To finish first, first you need to last. At present it's doubtful tesla will.

But, it's an american dream: USA manufacturing, making America Great.... Expect a man in a red hat to bail them out.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 23 2018, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Bloody circus.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Yea, but I want em to be wrong a little longer!
Mick


Haha, yeah, I get cha
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
so, this time it's different?


I finally got around to watching the big short, and yes of course it's a hollywood dress up.

But the thing I completely missed/forgot about, was even though the shorter's were right, the market kept pricing bonds dearer, the complete inverse of what should really be happening.

And that's been a good lesson for me: As a small investor, I often can't believe what I see going on around me. And I used to get angry, confused, question myself.

But what the market does, and logic reality are two very, very different things. So I need to embrace that me thinks.

I find my thought process is like the two young fella's in the big short:
A: Either we are wrong, and we're toast or
B: We are right, even though the market disagrees, so I'd better go in harder.

If you're right, and have the financial means to go in harder (safely), I'm gonna do that.

People dumping PM's 10 years into a Yanky bull market: It's highly likely they are WRONG.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Or it's retail investors sinking in their tax returns biggrin.gif

This BLA is intriguing. It still has fan boi's crawling out the wood work. Amazing.

Wonder if we'll ever hear what ASIC find after trawling their books.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 13 2018, 01:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Dividend cancelled.....
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 12 2018, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Absolutely coming to an end: The fact that Nestle can issue, and SELL, -ve corporate bonds tells us all we need to know.

The mega wealthy and the huge fund managers are preparing for a period of massive deflation, where they are happy to guarantee a return of most of their capital.

They're not chasing returns on capital, just the return.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 8 2018, 12:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'm not a shorter, don't know how to: I know the principal, but never pursued it.

What the fan boi's completely get wrong about shorters, is they provide liquidity as the stock collapses: They provide the fan boi's with their chance to get out, with some cash. If shorters don't have to cover their positions the stock may literally have zero buyers.

Shorting's to dangerous for me. I see there are pieces years old talking of BLA being a fake, but it was only when a USA based mob called them on it the world took notice. There's plenty of stocks way over valued, prime for shorting, but

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Tesla should be a good short: But a mouth like Musk is always able to extract investment from some sucker: It even seems his solar city deal was dirty. But people keep financing him.

Wouldn't it be nice?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 10:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

yep, got there.

Under a tent.
By deleting 300 welds per car
By removing the final roll and stop tests.

The modern automobile is the most complex item in mass production. Tesla tried to leap frog over the billion dollar giants that have been around for a century.

I don't believe much of Musk re: Tesla, but I do believe him when he say's he's in production hell.

and that aint gonna solve itself with out a huge dose of time, money and resources..... something Telsa is burning through rapidly.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

The RBA have no credibility. I'll leave it at that.

Their real goal is to maintain the wealth that the uber rich have, be damned about the rest. Same for APRA. They all know house prices are out of control.

But it doesn't matter, or concern them, they are rich, will always be rich, and no recession could seriously impact them.

That said, they've done a good job at steering our GDP figure for 25 years, even with those crazy Howard, mining boom years. But what we have now is the most outrageously distorted economy you can imagine.

At one end, the 80% are worse off than 10 years ago. Wages haven't risen in real terms for 7 years, cost of living is rising at a multiple of CPI (thanks to regulation and monopolies further enriching the rich), while at the other end, the 5% are feeling the best they have ever: Booming stock markets, rampant asset price growth (art, cars, property etc).

We have average house prices in some cities of $1m, while the minimum wage is $18 p/h.....

Again, this doesn't really matter.... The real concern is the private debt. It's astronomical, and mostly all backed by the same damn asset class, which itself is way over valued.

If a company CEO ramped up asset prices in his company, then bumped up the share price, to bump up the line of credit.... well, there would be head scratching and questioning going on (see blue sky for example).... But here we have banks, over valuing property, to lend out more, to bump up property, to over value, to lend out more.... around and around.

We're now seeing what effect the chinese, and other foreign cash, and the IO loans the banks were issuing on Syd and Melb housing had.... Of course with out it the prices are falling: Have to laugh at the 4.5% report, it's far more than that is the upper high end.

Check out one of my favourite clips of all time: Ben Benanke saying that loan security price falls aren't a problem : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5A4Gw20dcw

Haha. The RBA like to think they are in control. Really, the market is in control. Some times it complies with their wishes, some times it wont.

All I know is, be as debt free as you can when this crash hits, as no one (outside of the Irish) in living memory will be able to say they've lived through this before.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 30 2018, 11:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Interesting.

Kinda like how the super fund managers never report the franking credits the members earned........
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 29 2018, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Interesting.

I know here in Adelaide (as we're looking) all the agents are complaining "no stock". Then they spin BS about it being a tight market, and you'll have to bid/pay lots.... I call BS, and think it's people getting valuations....and holding off.

Went to an auction the other Sat. Guidance was $550k, talk was $600k. Yeah, right.
I made bet with wife, first bid $420k... I was spot on.
Passed in at $480k...

Sold sign up by end of day, I guess $500k would have done it.

A full 10% off what the guidance was.
And ~20% off what 'the talk' was.

There were plenty of stunned faces at $480k... But them's the brakes.

And now with Turnbull not putting anything in the budget to prop it back up..... is this the final leg before the real crash????

It could be this time: But hell, I've call wolf so many times now.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 26 2018, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

It's been a nice ride. I got on board around $50 on the way down, went in on the capital raising at ~$26 IIRC.

Doesn't seem to have got it's hands too dirty in the RC so far.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 26 2018, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Oh boy, the stink should have been dispersing by now.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 25 2018, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

While I agree the banks have no concept of PR, this is mostly the Conveyancers fault. Most likely way to hack emails is:
A: Weak passwords
B: Vulnerable email client
C: Vulnerable OS

And finally that PEXA system should have 2 factor authentication. (I tell everyone to 2FA everything, personal, business or corporate) Yes it's a hassle.

If this occurred to me, the conveyancer would be in for a hell of a time until he/she made right on the missing money: Ensuring I don't lose out on my deposit, and any other costs created.

Let's not forget: The reason a conveyancer is used is to PROTECT your money.... Clearly a fail here.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 22 2018, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

100% agree: At some stage fundamentals will completely over-ride any power the RBA has.

We already see the spread between RBA rate and retail rates being the largest that I'm ever aware of.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Jun 22 2018, 08:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

What a shocker this has been: I was never involved.

But I see/hear commentary running around, that this 'kind' of behaviour (massively overstating off market asset values) in lurking throughout the Superannuation industry.

YIKES!
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 15 2018, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yes, you're correct.

We are at an interesting time: The big corporate, well managed companies are making good profits. Interest rates are somewhat stable, and most companies have conservative debt.

Yet the workforce are in debt to their eyeballs, the are working longer hours, and here in Aust, haven't seen a real pay increase (above real CPI that is) since 2010. Yet, when they ask for a rise, are told to look at the application pile on the table, or that careful what you wish for, automation is coming, your job will go if you get too expensive.

So, of course share buybacks are a thing. With a slowing global economy, where else would you invest? You're not gonna tie it up in some low paying bond or term deposit. Let's get some more of our own rapidly increasing stock (never mind the stock markets are in bubble territory). It makes shareholder value appear to increase, and the bonuses roll in for the exec's.

I would hate to be part of the crowd that staked their future as life long corporate types, fighting their way up the ladder. It's a blood bath in these big companies.

Will tax cuts help employment? I can't believe what I'm about to say, but no. I think we'd be better off getting some governments (at all levels) that have a plan and can instill confidence in small business and the consumer.

Then we might look at hiring. Until then, we're all just preserving capital.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

For the record, I expect prices to hit year 2000 prices, adjusted for inflation.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 06:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Can you explain pent up demand? or Underlying demand??

When ever I hear these terms I screw up my nose.... It's like your mate saying he pays for her company.... No, she's a hooker...

Is there demand or not?
Is it FINANCED or not????

Hell, almost every red blooded male want's a Ferrari: Is that pent up or underlying demand????

It means, FA, because it's not financed.

This economy, locally, domestically, internationally is completely screwed up.

There is no relationship between, price and earning, value and price, risk and reward.

It's a disaster out there.

Chasing return on capital??? These days I'm looking first at return of capital. These bubbles bursting are going to be epic.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 6 2018, 07:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
I am confused where to go


I'm on the same page as you Mark, but my big belief, is that this inequality is the real risk, the real threat to the stability we enjoy/exist through.

I read an article the other day: Bezos's wealth has been increasing at a rate of USD$257 million.... per day.
A warehouse (sorry... fulfilment centre) worker at amazon earns in one year, the same as Bezos does, but in 11 seconds.

We hear stories of workers collapsing from exhaustion in these fulfilment centres: They don't have time for toilet breaks: They wear incontinence pads. They work the wrong side of the modern 40 hour week... They then get taxed on their income, and pay stamp/vat taxes when they spend it.

Mean while Amazon pays nothing in taxes: Or even worse, bribes the government, while bragging they don't pay taxes: See Mishtalk Blog Piece

There's 550,000 reasons (staff) that Bezos should be worried.

This is obscene. I pick on Amazon because it's in the news, and the numbers come to mind: But the big boys are all the same:

Walmart employees receive some $6billion in welfare handouts as their wages are so poor: So who's sponging off the government?
The workers?
Or Walmart???

When you step back and ask "If walmart aren't paying their workers enough for a basic living... surely it's Walmart that's the sponge???"

Terrorism, religion, credit crunches, solar flares... etc.... These don't worry me near what this inequality does. Stock markets boom and bust, houses rise and fall... but if we see a mass uprising from this inequality, who knows what will happen.

But sadly, the bad men also rule the military........
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 6 2018, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I agree Mick.

Here in SA, anything other than one's self is classed as a vehicle.

So skateboard
bicycle
trolley
pram
etc.

So attend a social gathering at a public space, drink three beers and push the pram to the car..... Yep, you can be done for DUI, and lose demerit points on your car license.

It's this behaviour that is inducing anxiety and reducing consumer confidence...

But we are told it's terrorism and bad actors causing the trouble....

It's a sick, sick world.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jun 4 2018, 11:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

No. I operate with in all guidelines and boundaries.

I was trying to make a statement about the size of the 'monster' fine. I operate under a couple of different government departments, and some of them have fines that are multiples of yearly profit. Basically, many small businesses can be wiped out if they get hit with fines, regardless of intentional or not. Where as here we have a corporate Goliath that gets hit with a whopper...but it's barely even going to be felt.

Hell, think of it this way: With the average savings rate of Australian's where it is, a regular speeding fine is probably more days 'profit' than what CBA are facing.......
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 4 2018, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

It's about 30 trading days profit. If the 'big fines' my business had to worry about was only 30 trading days profit... Oh my.

The scale of the size of the banks is completely being forgotten here. That fine isn't even a nasty quarter, it's just a bump that will disappear.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 30 2018, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yep, just read a few of Blue Orca's tweets... I reckon their on the money again.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: May 29 2018, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I don't have access to her twitter... but it seems I don't really need to... It's not worth following smile.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 28 2018, 09:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

My thoughts haven't changed.

Mucky.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 25 2018, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Well that was a surprise /S

Colossal waste of shareholder capital.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 25 2018, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Who knows???

the link between fundamentals and valuations is completely wrecked, right around the globe. $20 Trillion of asset purchases by central banks 'printing' money into existence will do that.

All the central banks have done is worked out that morphine makes the situation appear better. Without fixing the real issue.

I know, I know, I sound like every other 'broken record' out there. This can't end well.

I look at Japan, with BOJ owning damn near everything... with printed money.... What's gonna happen when the masses realise that fiat currency really is nothing. That their entire bond market and stock market have a value of 'nothing' because, that's what was used to buy it.

Well, of course, you'll get the grandest economic reset in living memory, and possibly in history. You'll see asset prices crumble, entire industries wiped out. Generations of wealth destroyed.

And then reality will hit: How to rebuild a society that has no idea of what capital and labour are really worth.

To me, this is the greatest issue facing the globe: This mis pricing of labour and capital, means we have entire generations that have no idea of capital or labour, how to value it and how to allocate it.

Just look internally at Australia: We see nurses, police officers, firemen, teachers, tradesmen of all walks, etc leaving their field of expertise and plough head first into 'property investment/development/renovations' because the believe they can make fast money: And why is the money there? Because the economic system the central banks have built values property as the ultimate security and will lend ungodly amounts for/against it:

Seriously, when it takes 30 year mortgages to buy average houses on average wages, at historic low interest rates, all sense of value is lost. The cost of goods to build a house has never been cheaper: General labourers (some skilled even) has never been cheaper: Yet the finished product is valued ridiculously high... Why? Because all the printed money is funnelled into property.

Traditional single income families used to pay 3 or 4 times annual income for their residence: In Sydney this figure is out of control, some suburbs it's pushing 30 times.... A ten fold increase in the 'value' of the asset. This is insane.

I just shake my head at what I see people around me do: I have customers who have $150 p/w for all their living expenses because the rest is spent on 'owning their own home'.... I don't have the heart to tell them, it's not their home, it probably never will be 'their home' and that you're not really paying off the home, you're just making bank profits.

We see the Faang's in USA valued almost $trillion each.... Hundreds of multiples of profit... If they make a profit... yet paying no tax.... creating machines to do away with humans, and their machines are doing stuff they can't control, except for the on/off switch. (Read Done by Jaques Peretti).

I just shake my head at what I see.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 21 2018, 06:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Dangerous game shorting the aussie banks. Many have tried and got burnt. There will come a time when it's due though.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 21 2018, 06:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

@ Early Birds, sorry, wasn't a personal attack at all. Just an observation. Tpg are a nibble well run machine: They wouldn't be throwing cash away with out knowing their numbers: Where as TLS... Well, you know my thoughts on their systems, and by implication their numbers.

I often find the obvious question isn't the question that needs to be asked.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 21 2018, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
my question is if TPG gose as aggressive as the article point out then what is cash burn rate for them???
short TPM /long TLS at their current price??


TPG is a tight ship. I think you maybe asking the wrong question here. Rephase it as "What percentage of customers leave TPG due to frustration? How many customers leave telstra because of frustration?"

Ah, and there we have it: TPG just has to entice people over, and they are unlikely to leave:
Telstra on the other hand.... One of the most hated organisations to deal with. Their customer service machine is broken: I'm not talking staff, the staff are generally very good, but the systems, CRM, Billing etc that Telstra use are out dated, broken, unreliable, junk.

But those shareholder reports stop management from investing... One presumes.

Where as a tight run player like TPG, forged in the retail market (vs. Telstra when it was a monopoly) see's two total different approaches to business: One chases profit for the sake of it, the other chases satisfied customers that deliver profit.

A six month burn to get a customer that is likely to be with you for the next 5 or so years until 5g is replaced??? I think it's a safe move on TPG's side.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 21 2018, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

While we can bang on about how crazy these banks have been: (But didn't we already know it? With private debt hitting 200% GDP and mortgage debt some 1.6XGDP????)

But their size is huge: Huge, even in global terms.

Lehman Bros (you know, the ones that nearly collapsed the global economy when they failed) had a peak market cap of US$60b.

CBA? AU$125b (US$94billion)

I don't expect a whole lot of repercussions from their behaviour. A few million dollar fines maybe, but nothing they can't earn before lunch on Tuesday.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 19 2018, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yes, I agree, there's either nasty drops coming to our dollar or the RBA starts hiking, at the expense of small business and mortgage holders.

My mate follows this area heavily, and Australia is a capital importing country. We need foreign capital to operate. Just consider how much of the ASX, the property and ag sector are foreign owned... It's immense.

To attract that investment and capital, our rates traditionally are significantly higher than USA, the benchmark, being the world currency.

Now the reason to send cash to Australia is deminishing... What will the risk profile do if we have a change of federal government? For the first time in a long time, we do NOT have a METOO opposition, the opposition stance on personal tax cuts, -ge gearing, and business tax cuts are very, very different from the current bunch.

It's an interesting time to be alive, and I'm sure in years to come, many lessons from the last 10 years will be learnt.

With terrible private debt, three unaligned levels of government, a banking sector being exposed as thieves, unstable business and employment environments, it's hard to argue that Australia isn't horribly exposed to any shock that will trigger economic chaos.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: May 17 2018, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Why the hell do these damn wine monkeys keep doing this to themselves?????
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: May 15 2018, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
the golden day of our 4 big banks are over.


Part of me says you're correct, but there's another part that says : Nah

It's a bit of a laugh: Years ago, some researchers in USA come out and said that the most profitable sector in the world is : Australian Banks.

And yet, last night I watched, laughed and cried at the four corners story on HSBC. Offices in over 100 countries, it's truly a global bank, so big that when the USA wanted to prosecute, UK government steps in and stops it, for 'global stability'..

HSBC makes ~$20 billion profit: Globally.

And here's our little banks putting up huge numbers, but in an economy that's minuscule.... Is it any wonder our private debt is out of control.

I'm not sure what will come out of the royal commission, it almost hinges on the up coming federal election: Turnbull will want the commission, shut down and quietly pushed aside, Shorten will want to continue, and broaden it's scope. What 'recommendations' are made, who knows, and what will be implemented, who knows and then again, what will be enforced????

These banks are so massive, they can continue to do what they like. No politician with a future post politics in mind will come down hard on the banks: We all know they have the nicest paying consulting jobs and offices. never bite the hand that feeds you.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 15 2018, 08:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

At what point is it worth buying in? (For me, never thanks)

Until completely independent guys get in there and sort the books out, it's a gamble: I would think you may be better off at the pokies with their 97% payback rate: At least you get free tea and coffee!

It appears there's a whole host of shady/grey/questionable shadow funding from wealth advisers, secret property deals with ex-directors etc...

Sounds mucky.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 15 2018, 08:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

And yet TPG can go full boar into 5G and lay it's own fibre network in profitable CBD areas. (I seen an interview with IIRC Trigubuff, being asked if he was worried about TPG's falling market share at present, his response was no.... Customers are moving to NBN, but that's junk compared to 5G, we know they will be back for faster, cheaper connections in the near future).

So what we have is TLS still operating as if it was the monopoly operator.

It's gonna take an epic change to turn it from a slow dinosaur to an entre/intrepreneur. Can be done but difficult.

I've had way more than my capital back in dividends. So with GCT tax (actually better check what I bought them at), there's no urgency to sell, especially with nothing screaming "buy me".

***Disclaimer, I have a contact who is heavily involved in telco infrastructure, 5G is the real deal, it is as good as we are being lead to believe**** Unlike NBN, which is a completely failure according to several friends who've moved over to it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 7 2018, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Surely they are not accruing fees on $763m of undrawn debt?


Wont remain undrawn for long.....

That's if they make the end of financial year.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 7 2018, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

She's stuffed. All smoke and mirrors.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 09:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

My thoughts are if management was so sure that Glaucus was incorrect, then at any price under say $10 it's a no brainer buy.

Except here we are, down in the $3's, and management have only thrown a few $10's of thousands of dollars at it.

I would want a better explanation of their models, and especially the property stuff, before I invest my hard earned.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 23 2018, 10:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Who wants to help write the film???? (Loosely based on real events of course... don't want to end up in trouble do we??)

Would be a cracker.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 17 2018, 05:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Amazing.

I listened to the Alan Kohler interview. Can't say much without get dangerously close to libel.... But, there was no confidence inducing information. Just twisted, confusing drivel. I seriously expected far better.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Still getting beat. And following the play book: Blaming Glaucus for the lack of opportunity moving forward....
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 6 2018, 06:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Lots of director buying today: What's the rules regarding that?

Why did they allow it to loose half it's value before buying in??

More questions than answers on this one.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 6 2018, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Round 3 about to commence:

Anyone got any comments on what the institutionals are doing?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 5 2018, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'm watching it over here: https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&ver...LA&src=ctag

but I haven't been able to locate the Glaucus rebuttal.... I've never seen anything like this. This is fascinating.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 5 2018, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Oooooooo...... Now this is gonna be a fun little display. $11 million for a portapotty gig? In Adelaide??? Yes, we are the festival state, but you'd need a monopoly to justify that one would think... and the portapotty industry is far from a monopoly.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 4 2018, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'm not a holder, so with that out the way:

Glaucus Research isn't someone I'm familiar with, but a quick scan reveals they are sharp, and know what they're doing. You don't dropped a $2.5 billion dollar bomb like they did without being confident. BLA will probably survive, but there's gonna be a lot of carnage, and I suspect the fall out, will spread right out over the entire Australian LIC industry.

One of the LIC's I do have money in has been worrying me the last few years as they do more and more off market deals, and hold more and more asset's off market: I'd never heard of Glaucus Research model, but it's brilliant, and opens any operator up to the same weakness that they say BLA are guilty of.

There will be fall out from this, and not just to BLA.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Argo is my largest holding. I just DRP.

So sick of money in the bank earning nothing, while looking at markets that don't seem to be justified.

Gonna have to put my thinking cap on for this one.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 04:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Any takers on the SPP?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 9 2018, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I think we're going deeper into franchise models! eek!

Banks will often lend to a franchisee, not a self branded business.

Many industries just have too smaller margins to enable corporates to run expanding shop fronts. ie. Could RFG afford to pay a competitive 'managers' salary in each of it's stores, say $70k? Of course not. So they franchise it out, someone who works super hard and runs a tight ship might make $70k or more. But an average manager, doing average 35hrs a week... Never could they do it.

And of course, what's the global trend? More franchising.

You can try fighting the trend..... but the trend is usually your friend.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Mar 1 2018, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Always amazes me how fast the value falls out of a stock: I guess that's a reflection of most human's having an optimistic outlook.

I sure as hell don't :/
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 27 2018, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

As much as I hate to say it: It's the big corporations abusing their power. They come here, pay no tax, and here's the kicker, get the working class/tax payer to pay for the infrastructure to make their profits.

The NBN is the best example of this: Why is the taxpayer/consumer forced to pay for NBN when it's the FANGS making all the bloody money, while paying no tax. It's outrageous.

As for KGN.... Not something I'd touch.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 22 2018, 08:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
<h1 class="story-headline">Wesfarmers first half profit plunges 87 per cent as Bunnings UK losses accelerate</h1>


News.com.au article

Target and UK dreams doing their damage.

Dunno what they're doing with target. Seems they make Kmart cheap at the expense of target, and now want to rebuild target....except Kmart has cannibalised their market ohmy.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 16 2018, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Ah, that's better, not great, but at least possible I suppose wacko.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 16 2018, 08:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'm trying to get my head around the fact they had an operating loss of $25million for the year.

Like.... Seriously... How??? Do they understand that sum of money???? Branson started Virgin Blue with $10m, and there's a whole lot of capital tied up there. Isn't MEA just a franchise model???? They own no stock, they are agents. A few leases offices, some printing, a web site host/management team, and a few directors.... Where's that money gone?

Just stinky actions all round I suspect.

But I'm sure a few people have made of with millions outta this one.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 15 2018, 02:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Well there ya go.... Was wondering where all that profit from the IPO went.... I think we now know.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 6 2018, 02:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

The contract with Aberdeen s finishing up, and management will be internalized.

Also a name change looks to be coming up.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 6 2018, 01:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
WESFARMERS — Bunnings’ expansion across the UK is in doubt after parent company Wesfarmers was forced into $1.3 billion in first-half writedowns, due mostly to the poor performance of its British hardware venture.


News.com.au Finance

Who woulda thought??? Another Aussie company fails with it's foreign dreams.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jan 30 2018, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Again not that anyone cares as the lower 80% are less than 10% of the actual economy in any economic sense.


And here is the problem, the 80% have no voice, no power, no assets, no wealth, nothing. It's a bad novel, in real life.

QUOTE
I would and will be happy to miss a LOT of the pain which is surely going to come. Being NOT invested somewhere for too long .... somehow and one misses the appreciation.


And this is where I'm at...been since 2008ish, topped up a few bits and pieces, but by and large held my holdings but never added.....

So in the case of another GFC type event, will likely look genius, but so far, looks pretty stupid (but I'm comfortable in the knowledge a 75% market drop would barely effect my lifestyle)

The one worry I do have, is if Fed/RBA go on a buying spree with the next downturn. That changes everything. EVERYTHING.

And the precedent is there, BOJ are showing the way. How much of the bond and Nikkei do they own now??? It's frightening.

Of course having the central bank, buying and propping up 'asset' prices is the ultimate aim of every sociopath. Create business/asset, float on market, receive many times startup capital, all the real cash in the sociopath's pocket, while the people (tax payers) are on the hook to pay for said 'asset' with interest.

Rinse, lather, repeat.

...and then we look at the other end of the spectrum, a socialist nation like Venezuela..... they end up with 80% under the poverty line
..hang on look at the 'capitalist' poster boy, USA......they end up with 80% under the poverty line......

I've said before, and I'll re-commit to it: Inequality is the great issue facing society as we know it.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Mark, didn't read word for word, but I get exactly where you're coming from. Someone once told me the concept of capitalism is to get the money from your pocket and transfer it to mine. This only works when everyone is able to get some money, as you show, in the USA, the money is going up the chain, never across or down, only up.

Yes, you're right. The 1% are absolutely feasting. Gorging themselves.

And for what? I don't really know. I know several very wealthy people, who worked and created their wealth, and they all say once the house is paid for, the nice cars paid for, the holidays paid for.... why keep working to death??? Spend time with family, friends, hell give time to the community... Once you have billions, really, why would you want to seek more, especially when it is MEASURABLY harming those below you??

I could go on for hours, I know several USA citizens, and their attitudes come off bizarre. So proud and passionate of capitalism, yet nervous and untrusting....

Humans can be brilliant, but we're also very, very evil.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 09:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Make website responsive, ie mobile friendly
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I didn't see the piece, but have no doubt he's selling snake oil.

Let's see.... Who has a bank loan where it's no direct debit.........

Really? You get an invoice in 'the mail', and pay by a due date???? Lies, I suspect.

And at $55million, and 200 properties, that works out at 'equity' of $275k per property....... Sounds a lot, like a lot. I love these people and their 'net' positions. They never calculate a true 'net' position. How much CGT will be be up for??? How many early termination fees??? How much REA fees??? 200 X $20K = $4 million..... Ha, he will blow 10% of his 'net' position JUST on agent fees when he liquidates....

No doubt he's depreciated the living daylights out of his properties, which makes the CGT implications HUGE....

These days I don't know how I feel about it all.... I tried to save the world from stupid -ve gearing mistakes (it is a genuine strategy, but the money is made on the initial purchase, you can't buy in a bubble and expect to make money)... But no one want's to listen.

I always come back to asking how would packer (or other rich bloke) behave.... Imagine this conversation with the accountant:
Acct: Good and bad new sir
Packer: Bad first
Acct: We lost money on that new casino for the year
Packer: f'ing what...
Acct: now the good sir, you get a nice tax credit (fake smile)
Packer: someone's getting boned for this f up.......


Chasing a tax credit via loosing money, in the hope that a commodity will rise in value.... bloody dangerous.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 18 2017, 09:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yes, it's a shocking (and I mean, it should shock anyone that learns about it) position that the USA (well, the west in general) have gotten themselves into. Reading into the detail of the latest 'tax reform' from Trump and the team..... I can't even put into words how one sided the reforms are. The evidence that they don't benefit the masses is shown by the massive ramp up in stock by backs since it was announced... Tax cuts are being pumped back into already wealthy (compared to the 95%) shareholders... Not new jobs, not innovation, not R&D... Just "wealth creation"

Wealth creation itself is in a weird place now, as like a parasite can only thrive on a healthy host, I see the masses (here in Aus also, I deal with them in retail and service) and they are reaching the end of their ability to borrow... Sustainability dropped off quite some years ago, we are just living on credit cards, hoping it will come good of it's own ability.

It is amazing that the masses have allowed this to occur, right under their noses, right after the most prosperous time in the last 100 years. Most of the masses are connected to non-MSM, but they have failed to hold their governments to account, and allowed them to destroy the current and future generations through unbelievable tax and economic 'reforms'.

I honestly believe, inequality in the west is the biggest threat to modern society. And it's at all levels, from small business owners risking everything, but earning nothing, to multi-kid families living nicely on welfare, to working families trying to keep afloat etc. etc. How a reset, or redistribution of the wealth will occur, and when, I can't tell, but troubling times are certainly ahead.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 24 2017, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

How hypocritical of these mongrels to 'advise' their suppliers that by using Amazon they risk being cannibalized...when that's all WOW, HN, JB, Ebay et al. have done to their competition.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
take back control of the listed real estate flop.


Lol define flop.

If you mean IPO for over $100m, but only inject $8m (IIRC) back into the working capital, watch the price collapse 75%, to buy it back, then it hardly is a fail is it?????

I'm not saying this was planned, but the original stake holders are gonna walk out with a huge profit.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

All Scary isn't it: Mark I tried to pm you last week, but it seems I can't these days.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Your post high lights why interest rates can not be used to control the economy properly (does an economy need controlling?.......)

I see it from a business owners point of view, but the same rules apply to citizens.

I see big, established, powerful businesses accessing cheap finance to expand, grabbing market share, or investing in lowering their cost of production. While I see small businesses using debt just to keep doors open.

Wealthy people are gearing up in real estate, shares etc, while the middle and poor are expanding their credit cards or personal debts.. or worse redrawing the mortgage for living costs..

But when you work in a nice office surrounded by well paid academics, you have no idea of this. You don't see the horror of a surprise power bill, or the car breaking down, or the shower leaking.

Wealth gap to intensify: That's scary, but if/when we have our housing bust, this is sure to occur. Then the taxpayer balance sheet will get destroyed by bank and industry bail outs...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 11 2017, 05:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

What you describe, is pretty much what I understand to be going on. My sister lived/stayed in USA for a few months a couple years ago. She stayed in cheap/nasty hotels at times, and via a friends family, got to live on Central park in a $20k per month apartment. So she seen the bad, and the unbelievable.

Sadly, I'm torn, I hate that welfare takes off the 'middle class', not that USA has a middle anymore. In Australia, I see myself and my small business mates, work like slaves, to get over the line for GST payments, income tax payments etc. While those in low socio-economic areas, refuse to work and enjoy life: Is it a life I would enjoy? NO, but why am I busting my nut to pay taxes for it....

Then we get to the big multinationals and their tax evasion. Again, torn. Part of me says our tax rate is too high, and of course they'll move off shore.

But then I look at stuff like NBN, and ask why is the middle class paying $100b for this, when it will be the FAANGS that make the money off it, and again, they pay no tax. It's literally the middle and poor paying the infrastructure off for the rich.

I read somewhere (not sure if it was Australian or global) but they were saying financial inequality is the worst it's been since 1902. And I'd believe that. I have a very conservative father, who was self employed, worked 7 days for ever, but has built a very nice retirement. But even he has no clue of the inequality, he lives in a small rural town, cost of living is low, no traffic, great vege/fruit garden, own water supply, amazing solar panel set up... and he tells me "you need to earn $100k per year to live"... But Dad, no one is earning $100k. Here in SA the median is back under $40k pa IIRC. Again, I believe that, myself, and some mates have our own businesses where we are often required by surprise, ie. we work in the repair industries.... and people often have to hit the credit card, or wait to the next pay day just for a few bucks spare, or even worse, release some super......

Where or when this trajectory ends, I don't know, but I stand by my call, that inequality is the biggest threat to many nations stability. Not terrorism, global warming, external wars..nope, inequality.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 10 2017, 08:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yeah, and there's one point you missed: Overbuilt malls. I've seen reports that 1 in 4 malls (or shopping centres as we call them) will be closed in USA by 2030.

https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/program/abandoned

It's already happening.

Of course, the small time analyst gets on TV and says 'consumer confidence is a bit weak, but we envisage that coming back over xmas, increasing jobs and further creating confidence" blah, blah, blah.

What he doesn't understand (or if he does, he's doing well to hide it) is that the consumers are tapped out on debt. Tapped out. The figures from ABS support that.

I've only just recently learnt about Wikipedia link and his law of rent, which is clearly in practice.

I work in a service/retail industry, and over the last 30 years there have been huge gains in efficiency, but our wages and profits are the worst they've ever been. Surely you'd think, if you can deliver the same thing to the customer, more efficiently, and for a cheaper cost to the business, then your profits should be increased.... This is something I've asked my dad for years and years, basically, we're doing this better, we're doing it cheaper, where's my bloody cheese!

And Ricardo got it right.

So if your consumers are tapped out on debt (and I see it nearly every day, it goes on credit, or worse they draw down on the home loan, or even worse they release some superannuation) but all the profits have gone to landlords, but the businesses no longer have profits... Well then the land lord finally takes the knife himself.... As is happening with your boarded up shops, closed malls etc.

Amazon's an easy scape goat, but the truth is, online retail is still by and far a small chunk of overall retail.

I'm not saying retail is easy, far from, but I feel many retailers forget it's not 2005, credit and wealth effect are not in full swing, and we don't want to spend money, just because we have money to spend.

Of course it mostly comes back to debt, probably the most abused concept on earth. Borrowing from the future to pay for today, it's plain dangerous, and should only be used for a handful of things....

Einstein knew the truth about compound interest, why don't our kids get taught it at school????.... Don't get me started SMH.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 10 2017, 08:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I believe what's happening over there will happen, and is happening all over the west. Welfare cuts and taxes increase for the masses, while tax cuts, breaks and incentives, along with government infrastructure jobs for the rich.

Dealing with front line retail, I can tell you people are having their family tax benefits and other welfare cut, but I haven't seen even one piece in the media about it. I do read a little bit about the aged care cuts, workcover, newstart cuts etc. Dig deeper and you find that over the coming years are tax cuts for companies etc.

The old saying of bread and circus's rings true. SSM, dual citizenship, blah, blah.

I see a day, not too distant TBH, where the inequality that's building in the west becomes a real threat to nations stability.

What makes me the angriest about it all is that government show NO restraint or even attempt to get value for money on their contract spending. I understand the budgets are terrible, but don't just cut the welfare to the people who are funding it, bloody well stop wasting money on infrastructure jobs that your mates are getting rich out of.

end rant
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 9 2017, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

It's a total circus.

And I believe this is the final nail in Turnbull's disaster that's known as Prime Minister-ship.

All I can do is SMH.

Of all the issues facing the country, they blast us with SSM and dual citizenship racket...... Well, you know the people get the government they deserve.

Australian's.... You seem to have deserved a stinker.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Nov 9 2017, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Correct re: China capital flow and property prices.

One only has to look at local credit growth figures. All are in the toilet, except mortgage debt, and that is growing way, way, way slower than the 10/15/20% pa. price growth rates in Syd/Melb.

Don't believe the hype that things are all ok in Australia, things are dire, but it's a market, and the prices are set by the fringes ie. a few transactions are used as a 'reading' of the health of the system.... Dig below that...ouch.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 7 2017, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Sure has been fun watching this one hasn't it.

Look, it's a capitalist economy, people can do what they like, and I respect the guy for his achievements, but this has really been a smelly dog hasn't it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Nov 2 2017, 08:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'm not calling the bust yet. Been caught to often over the last 15 years thumbdown.gif

But that Bloomberg article talking about the population moving north, is certainly also seen here in Adelaide, franchise and business sellers are targeting Sydney, as people are looking to get out, they fall for the idea that housing is 1/3 of the cost in Adelaide, therefore they will be far better off.

What they aren't told is our road network is broken, our health system is buckling, our schools are gang training and our citizens are the southern hemisphere version of their detroit counter parts: Good luck running a profitable, let alone thriving business here.

I honestly believe this housing/wealth inequality that's brewing is the biggest threat to Australia's stability. We are now on our 5th prime minister (6 if you include rudd twice) who have brushed off rising prices as acceptable, even encouraged.

All I know, is if it isn't addressed politically, it will be addressed financially, neither will be pretty, and for those who have borrowed multiples, while on average incomes with no ability to increase their earning power (all but a few great entrepreneurs have that ability anyway) will be caught.

Oh well, not like we haven't been screaming from the roof tops for years. They were warned.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 1 2017, 07:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
You have a housing bubble if your economy sputters, you have a housing bubble if you reduce immigration.


Our economy isn't sputtering?? Ask the 97% of business which are small if they are sputtering....

As for relying on immigration to keep house prices firm/rising...... If you need new entrants to keep prices firm/rising/return a profit for earlier investors...
then...
its...
a....
classic.......
ponzi scheme..

Ooops. Can't be telling the truth like that.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

@Triage,
Yeah, so it was the old Chrysler factory, aka Le Cornu, that they've bought. 2km from the CBD. In a very badly performing state, in it's major capital.

But, there's a few quirks of that area.

1: That south corner just out of the CBD has some of the most expensive real estate in Adelaide, ie. It's close to lots of easy spending women
2: Just a few KM to the north is the brompton development. Mass, high rise, hi density, low cost living... Which will certainly turn into a ghetto. Fools and their money are easily parted.
3: Even closer is the Coke factory which is shutting down this month (along with GM holden). And the factory, amazingly (/sarcasm) has been zoned for residential.
4: It's on 'Anzaz Highway", the main 3 lane passage from 'glamourous glenelg' to the CBD, so lots of easy spending money passing by twice a day.

So they may not have to rely purely on stealing market share, as plenty of new potential clients will be moving within close distance of that area. And there is plenty of parking, something westfield dont get

And again, I restate it. These foreign companies do something aussies just don't: They give me a reason to go to THAT particular shop. That's aldi's special weapon, 'special buys'..... There's no promise on availability, or rain-checks, it's simply get it while it's hot. I almost guarantee aldi do not invest any time or resources into finding special buys, it would be manufacturers and wholesalers banging on their door to sell over stocked goods.... so give up a bit of floor space, and watch sales increase...

Compared to "cordial for $1.73, down from $1.90. Down down! and staying down!" ...seriously, wtf.... You just told us in your own advertising your were ripping us off... and now you want our trust in that prices are staying down???? blah.... idiots.

When costco came to adelaide, they had reps, walk the whole metro area it seems, into every business, months before opening. I watched and studied the guy who came to my business, and he was polished if you knew what to look for. Serious dollars had been spent in preparing these guys, and I bet, costco were profitable for day one once open. Hell they even had 'tours' of the facilities during construction..... Imagine coles or woolies 'come and look at our store as we build it"... Ha, yeah right.

Again: What reason do I have to see coles or woolies??? friggin none. and they wonder why sales are stalled. idiots.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 27 2017, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Thanks Mark,
email notifications have been going to spam, so I've missed the last few updates. I'll check them out.

As for the wage, poverty, inequality thing, I can only imagine what it's like in the USA, I'm surrounded by guys who have not seen a REAL wage increase in 10+ years. I actually had on tradie almost cry when he told me, he found a pay slip from 2001, he now earns $1p/h more......

Two factors at play here, one is time, the other is inflation. Time flies by so fast for most humans, they actively forget about it. Is it friday already? Is it xmas already? Is it a federal election again? Is it the olympic games again? Is it census already? Is it a new decade already? The kids have finished their degree already???....... Sound familiar???

Then there's inflation. As a 20/20 maths student I've spent way to much time with spreadsheets, graphs etc, and the exponential function is truly scary.

<h1 class="quoteText"> “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.” </h1>
Albert Einstein
Now of course the inflation figures coming out of the ABS are simply bogus. When measured as the true buying power of currency, our dollar is devaluing way faster than the 2% or whatever rot they trot out. Can you run your house/life for only 2% more than it cost last year????

How about the year after??? And the year after????

...... no wonder our private debt is stratospheric.... housing debt.... wowzers, this can't end well.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 25 2017, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Two separate sources (yes two) have told me that a 1% interest rate rise will bankrupt or default 20% of the population.

Let that sink in.

One was a private finance mob, one worked at the big 4.

One in five will be bankrupt or defaulting with a 1% rise in rates.....

We know wholesale finance costs aren't coming down.....

Although with the FED reversing QE, who knows what's gonna happen.

All I know is, borrowing without a 50% buffer into Aussie housing is just crazy at this point in time.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

It's a complex issue. My biggest gripe with these dinosaur retailers is they don't give me a reason to use them. Target/Kmart... Pfft, I walk in, see it's all plastic, asian assembled, low cost junk and walk out. I get reams of catalogues in the mail... As a small business owner, I know the you have 0.7 seconds to grab a humans interest from advertising... these catalogues, again, junk. On the odd time I do flick through one it's followed with 'what a load of #$%^'.

It doesn't make me visit their website, let alone get dressed, hop in the car, fight traffic, get a park, then fight mums and prams to get into their shop.

No ambience, no loyalty schemes, no birthday bonuses...nothing. Just here's our junk, come pay for it. I'm not sure they actually understand they aren't entitled to my business or money.....

and they wonder why sales are drying up.

Amazon is an interesting one, AFAIK, the retailing arm ie. Amazon.com, still barely eeks out a profit (a lot of profit's from AWS etc), so it's all just a race to the bottom. No company survives on being the cheapest.

Maybe it's not amazon that's killing it, but that retail has simply positioned itself in a race to the bottom. Wise marketer's know price is not a competitive advantage.

Maybe I'm just getting older, and see the world for what it appears to be: A rich few forcing consumerism on the masses.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Sep 12 2017, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

so the rba need to publish a report to work out those that have borrowed into an asset class, before record price growth, at record low interest rates, are better off than those who are saving and getting historically low interest returns........

Doesn't it make your mind spin?????

As for the world noticing, Australia, Canada and China's housing markets are definately on the radar of the world's bankers. they're just waiting for the rising default rates before they take action

Twisted Minds
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 10 2017, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Attached Image



I can't remember where I got it, and I'm failing with google image search, any one able to try and locate where it's from?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Sep 10 2017, 12:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I can't find it now (I think I have it on the work computer, I'll try to dig it up) a picture a few years old showing the Aussie bank's derivative position...

We all know (or if you don't you're plain dumb... sorry, I'm not sorry for being blunt) that these crazy housing investors are using equity. How else do you explain the $12billion given back to -ve gear'ers, yet their portfolio keeps growing... So these little fools themselves are running synthetic CDO's as such.. Put down $50k, believe the market says it's gone up $50, pull that down for the next deposit etc.... So you can end up with multimillion dollar debts, all off a $50 down payment.... But when you have say $2,000,000 on the hook...and the market drops just 2.5% you wipe out your initial capital... and remember over 50% of all investor loans were/are Interest only, so I'm not BS'ing when I say that. A 2.5% drop will wipe out a $2,000,000 portfolio... Or, a hit on one property brings the whole thing down....

Blah....

But, just as we seen in USA, UK, Japan, Ireland, Iceland, France etc. etc. it WILL take rate rises to burst this bubble.

Notice in the youtube clip linked that it was 'rising defaults' that was the key. Years ago I stupidly put a stop loss on CBA at $52 or something similar, it never got that low, but I didn't understand how crazy the debt market, Canberra and the states would be on keeping this racket alive.

There's no doubt it's a house of cards, I'm not even sure the upper layers are being held up by cards, but rather bags of wind blowing upwards..... Very, very frightening.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 28 2017, 06:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yeah, it's been pretty disappointing this on. Is it a case of be greedy when others are fearful????? Or is it just a dog?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 24 2017, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

You should also worry when founders buy in to keep the share price afloat.... Seen that a few times recently.....
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Aug 24 2017, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

The banks may be behind amazon in terms of data management....

But when amazon makes real profits, then I'll sit up and take notice, until then, they're just a cut price retailers, who jumped on the IT band wagon: Nothing they do is particularly special, they make turn over sure. Nothing they do is unique enough for them to have huge profits so it's just smoke and mirrors.

A few shareholders get spectacularly rich from speculators, but where is the real money??????
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Aug 23 2017, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I simply don't like the 4 year plan for Big W.

4 years???? That is insane in the global economy. They need to move, much, much faster. Multi year turn around/growth to profit just don't cut it in this world any more: I thought Masters would have taught them that?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 9 2017, 01:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

It will happen, but the timing is impossible to call on this one.

The ABS/RBA numbers show credit is in reverse other than property, and we know the foreign money is keeping the market afloat. Yes, it has slowed, but only a fool could believe it stopped.

Apartment prices in free fall.

People quitting all sorts of jobs to become "flippers"

Debt on a trajectory that makes SpaceX rocket launches jelous..

Yields that make no sense

Income to price ratios (when using median income to median prices) that have many parts of Australia at 10:1, with parts of Syd and Melb at 30:1...

What could possibly go wrong?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 8 2017, 11:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

This whole AML is a bit of a farce. I highly the doubt the fines will have any real impact on CBA.

I'm far more worried about the housing bubble bursting.

But, meh, I been thinking that for 10+ years.

I'll just keep DRI.... Bought at IPO, so can hardly loose on this cash cow.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Aug 4 2017, 06:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

In a fractional reserve system such as ours, do I need to remind you all of

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

The government knows damn well they can't slap the bank hard, that'll trigger a credit crunch...

and no one wants a credit crunch when a housing bubble is the only thing holding your gdp together.........
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 27 2017, 04:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Nipper, that's a fascinating chart.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 26 2017, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Did you hear about the Australian senator who went into an italian pizza shop with his mum.
He not only came out with a pizza but an italian citizenship as well


The surprised senator was then mugged on the walk back to the car park.
What really piqued his interest was the fact, that of all his possessions on the senator, the mugger took only the pizza box after up-ending the contents.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jul 25 2017, 01:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I think the RBA will struggle to control interest rates, our banks are far to exposed to foreign cost pressures for the RBA to remain in charge. We've already seen lots of little hikes from the banks recently.

A huge issue no one appears to be covering is the IO investors struggling to gain finance as their loans come up for renewal.

As early bird touched on, the Chinese money is a massive, massive factor. Housing is a market, where the value of the entire thing is created from a few sales at the margins. So all this foreign money getting parked here, is holding prices up, even the credit market/growth figures from the ABS support this.

I'd hardly call 10% a correction given the current prices.

But the really problem, is this is a huge, super credit bubble. And what do we know about buyer behaviour when a credit bubble retreats heavily? It crashes.

So when is the crash? Dunno, but's it's at least 10 years overdue by my schedule

thumbdown.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 24 2017, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Also I see all the media outlets are reporting the suicide of Chester Bennington from Linkin Park. I was not totally sold on their mix of rap and metal (liked the latter, not so much the former). But Chester had a remarkable voice and they produced some dark brooding stuff in their time. Chester's voice was on full display when they went all Elton Johnish and produced movie music.


Incredibly sad, and a reminder to us all that we're all susceptible to evil inside ourselves.

I was reading something along the lines of Chester saying after his 20's he thought he'd be able to shake off the demons, and that he never thought he'd be fighting them in his 40's. Really, really sad.

The last few years have seen us loose some real talent, talent that may never be replaced.

Hopefully the rise of self publishing, you-tube etc. can spread the wealth, fame and pressure across a greater pool of artists.

What am I listening to? A little bit of pop, but more and more rock/pop from the 70-90's.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Jul 19 2017, 11:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
mmmm my, is it priced in?


I would luuurrrve to be in the closed door discussions, at:
A: Apra level
B: Bank board level
C: Treasury/political level.

I hardly think any of them can deny there's a bubble. How long they can prolong it, and what course of action when it goes must be the topic of discussion.

The latest round of foreign investor crack downs, were about calming the electorate, but not the markets.

Only last night I was speaking to a bloke in Adelaide, in the market for a home. I can't say exactly what he said (very politically incorrect, but we all know what it was), but if mobile phones are involved in the bidding, his advice is to leave immediately. If you stay to the fall of the hammer

A: You'll end up mad
B: You'll induce depression.
C: You'll realise there are people in this world who have money beyond most peoples wildest dreams......

Never, ever would I think that a democratically elected Australian government would sell their people out like this. I mean, we are the country that cuts down any tall poppy....unless you made your money in real estate, then you're held up as a god

Despite the fact by ripping off the working class, you've made the elite (bankers mostly) richer, while destroying the local retail and service industry.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 17 2017, 11:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

It is complete madness. Trying to get any idea of the scale of this bubble is next to impossible. I still believe when the collapse comes, we will revisit pre-2000 (plus inflation) prices.

That will wipe out most of Australia's wealth.

Why would I say that????

Because 80% of our wealth is in the $6trillion(iirc) housing/property market......

SMH
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 13 2017, 11:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I agree with balance it all slowed up with the GFC. Back in 2005 -2008 I couldn't keep up with all the posts, I'd be glued to the screen for hours daily scrolling through all the posts.

Fortunately/unfortunately, Australia's economy is so geared towards property that all the 'fast' money is pouring in and out of that.

Back when this forum was booming, I used to drive home hearing the ABC finance report, and nearly every night was "new record high", and that's when the lemmings start to chuck their money in the markets.

I'm told HC used to be very busy post GFC, before the mining collapse, I never visited or joined. I hated the mining boom, because I knew what would come after it.... destroyed rural communities, mass job losses and huge negative equity. Never mind the imploded state and federal budgets, or our dollar.

It's all cycles, you just gotta learn to roll with them. Nothings static.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Jul 13 2017, 11:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
In what part of the BLA model do you find repulsive? I didn't see any actual figures of debt in the report, just an unfounded generalisation.


That was six months ago, so I don't recall the specifics, but I remember the debt levels on a couple of their holdings/investments were way beyond what I feel comfortable with.

My POV is, with all this low interest rate muck going on, it's mostly a game of bluff, see who can borrow the most, gain the most, but sell just before the inevitable.

I'm comfortable watching how these highly leveraged plays roll out.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jul 11 2017, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
I seem to recall lots of commentators saying back in 2006 and 2007 that never in history had all 20 major US real estate markets fallen at the same time and as such real estate debt was always a local not systemic problem...


Yep, this is my favourite clip:

Must watch 2006 clip: Fed Head Opinion
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 9 2017, 03:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
just in time for the peak season that will put it to the test.


It's all quite the display.

A friend is a retired industrial electrician, and knows the ins and outs of all things electrical.

Simply, the public are hoodwinked. The figures are frightening.

This battery set up, the biggest one in the world.... Ok, so SA's network relies on the interconnectors from Vic, as renewable energy has synchoronis/non-synchronis issues (I seen this mentioned only once, it was on ABS, and the host diverted conversation away from this topic as being to complicated for the normal person.....)

So when we loose that AC signal from Vic, we loose power for the state, as what happened in Nov last year... It can be all sunshine and wind, but those renewable generators can spin all they like, but there's no out put, unless you have that base load AC signal to emulate.

So batteries to the rescue right!!!! So in a state wide power failure that battery arrangement has enough capacity to power the state for 3 minutes.

mmm. I think they'll still sell plenty of generators this summer.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jul 7 2017, 11:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Nothing to do with the fact that there's more appartment construction on the east coast than the entire north america continent.......
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Jul 4 2017, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
SA seems have other ideas for banks


Yeah, except it wasn't the LIb's that decided that, it was the electorate who were conned by the banks that this 'tax' was a bad idea. Marshall's leadership stinks, and if he let this through, that was his career ended right there. He was in a corner.

I'm generally very opinionated. I accept that.

But on this bank tax, I don't have any opinion. Perhaps because I know when the property market does fold, we'll all be bailing in/out the banks.

But when the populace in general run to the defence of billion dollar corporations, I have to question whether the populace know what their standing for.

#confused
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 27 2017, 11:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
It's all about positioning, margins and market share


and more to the point, being able to have on their CV they started "x brand" successfully in their previous employment.

Now in 6-8 years time, you can bet that they'll do a 'brand alignment' and cull these exact brands they are now 'developing'... Oh how the shareholders get boned by overly ambitious exec's.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 26 2017, 10:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
consumers who like wine, but are not necessarily loyal to the category.


Good on them... spending money to chase a known poor category...

When are one of these big companies gonna come to me for some marketing advice????? I can certainly write the bills to match the big boys. smile.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Jun 24 2017, 08:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

You're 100% correct on all that
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 08:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Are we commie???

Well we are 5th in the world for wealth distribution..... so pretty much, yes.l
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 20 2017, 09:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
not sure where to put this, because we seems lost " thread of aussie home price"


Is this what you mean?

Australian Housing Crash
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 20 2017, 02:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Yes, yes, yes.

I've been soooooooo wrong about this housing market, for years and years and years. I now know, that markets can remain irrational longer than I can solvent....

If not for the wifes great job, for us (and almost anyone) buying into this market is completely bonkers.

Oh well, will be fascinating to tell the kids/grand kids/ neices/nephews in years to come how out of control it was.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 19 2017, 01:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

The Amazon thing "good for customers" line get's trotted out alot. But I find it really hard to get accurate reports on amazon. Their business is so dis-aligned that it's impossible to work out what the hell is going on. They started selling books, but now power a significant part of the internets infrastructure. One part profitable, the other not....

One report commented that AWS is only so profitable as the VC/startup cash burn rate is so high: As these guys die/mature/crash/stabilise their impact to AWS shouldn't be underestimated, the report went so far as to say, it's essentially just off-sheet financing these startups ie. instead of their own infrastructure they are hiring the machines...

I'm really interested to see how Amazon fares in Australia, our laws, wages, regulations are all at odds with what Bezos and crew stand for. At least walmart are smart enough to just say 'no' to Australia.

As for their $20b purchase of whole foods, what is their exact strategy there? Have they even said publicly? An up market food retailer.... Amazon... Two totally different businesses

Yes, the margin is Bezos's opportunity....but by undercutting your upmarket food retailer, what is the end result??? The upmarket buyers move down? (hell, no, they'll go boutique) or the middle class move to upper class 'in behaviour', this is more likely, but why pay $20b for the privilege???

And of course the bears chime in with 'dumb, large, take overs like this ring the bell at the top of the bull market' and they could also be right.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 8 2017, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

18 months to get online weirdsmiley.gif

Good lord, the mobs they're contracting the web development to must be rubbing their hands together.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Jun 6 2017, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Wow... Wow, knew nothing about this.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jun 6 2017, 09:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Has Goldman Sachs ever used a typical landline or mobile phone through telstra???

The last 12-18 months their performance and service continues (yeah, I know, continues) to decline. How can you not feel pity for anyone who utters the words "i'm off to the telstra shop to sort out my account".

From my perspective the telco market in Australia is stuffed from privatisation, a lack of competition, and gutless regulators. Kinda like all our infrastructure.

Yes I hold Telstra, but I can't see me diving in for more anytime soon.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 31 2017, 01:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Expect a move to taxation by distance travelled so much a kilometre


A tax on the rich? Remember poor people don't drive much lmaosmiley.gif

That'll help the welfare generation justify not working, and speed up the drone delivery system development.

Unless there's some HUGE change that no-one is able to see, I believe the west/developed world is in for a hell of a rapid decline. Once automation really gets going, the robots will move to the cheapest countries, freight by air and sea will continue to fall in real terms, and any country trying to tax it's citizens and robots will experience accelerated declines.

I know the saying 'this time it's different' is a deadly saying in the finance world, but this time we are replacing expensive human capital (knowledge, time and labour) with cheap, reliable robots. I just can't see there being enough demand for real human services.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: May 30 2017, 01:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

It's not just oil companies that stand to loose with the forward movements in technology. The big one, and it's a big, big one, is government revenue.

So whether the autonomous cars/trucks/drone/ride shares/ etc. are fossil fuelled or not (40c per litre is Excise tax, plus 10%gst on top) fuel use is set to collapse. Once ride sharing becomes feasible, you'll see vehicle use into cities collapse.

think registrations
think speeding fines
think stop light fines
parking revenue collapses

Never mind there are huge numbers of jobs in automotive retail and service. Ask your local dealership how they will handle collapsing vehicle sales (which run on miniscule margins, or loss leading) then the service side of the industry, for every salesman, there are probably 2 or 3 mechanics, service advisors, parts interpreters etc.... All that income tax to disappear.... Sales tax.... Luxury car tax.....

Now many tell me im thinking too far into the future, but I don't think I am. Hell, the iphone only just celebrated it's 10th birthday, look at how that's changed modern life... Imagine all the workers who can now work/gain an extra 30min/1 hour from not having to drive. People will jump at driverless cars.

I doubt there's been a time in history when the entire world economy is changing/poised to change so much, in such a rapid way, effecting so many people.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: May 30 2017, 10:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
I cannot justify charging our clients fees when there are so many early warning lead indicators of clear and present danger in property and equity markets now


Wowza's, what a breathe of fresh air.

Of course there's two sides to every story, so I'd love to know the discussions behind closed doors.

I have been bearish on the global economy for years, and I've had to eat humble pie learning that the markets, and sentiment, and credit conditions, far surpass far value, and even when I call it crazy, it still has MILES to rise.

While I totally agree a trigger could cause a huge property and economic plunge in Australia, informed colleagues agree it's all overvalued, but with the momentum behind property, and the Chinese cash pouring in, Sydney and Melbourne haven't topped.

That's not to say others aren't getting burnt. Rural, Perth, parts of QLD are all in mega pain, the media are doing well to hide it.

All I know, is with the conditions the way they are, the smart ones are working on capital preservation, rather than wealth creation.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: May 24 2017, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
The Big Four and Macquarie Group Ltd's (MQG) were unchanged, reflecting S&P'S expectation of government support in the event of a crisis

eb, most Capital Notes (listed Hybrids/ Subordinated Debt) are up today.


Couldn't agree more. The big four (five) can do what the hell they like. Check their term deposit's and cash savings rates, they aren't competitive on any level. They don't need to be.

These guys will literally lend til the final bell.

As long as you know that, you'll be ok. You either sold out recently, or you bought in years ago and the drop (when it comes) doesn't worry you, because the government bail out/in will prop them up, no problems. USA was the example, then the g20 meetings put it all into law. As long as that chinese money keeps pouring in, borrowing/lending long on the melb/syd housing bubble is a one way bet.

sickening.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Apr 13 2017, 09:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Tele-communications is a real funny one. I'm not sure if telstra still have a requirement to cover much more of the population than the others.

Yes, at one stage Telstra was the go-to if you have a business with reps on the road. But my wife relies on Telstra (she works in the health industry) and the last 12 months it's been shocking, no service, missed calls, can't send messages on and on it goes. She spent hours on the phone, being told they've fixed it all, but they never do.

So, what to do? What I'm told is TPG is a sharp operator, and moves FAST. Still has that mongrel entrepreneurial spark.

Vodafone has impressed me how they fought back from vodafail, but they did loose me as a customer after 15 years, and I haven't gone back.

Chuck in NBN, and I have a feeling, the tele-com game still has a lot of maturing to do yet.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Apr 3 2017, 02:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Amazing isn't it. That people need to be told of the shuffling that goes on pre-IPO.

And even more amazing, in one of the flatter periods in modern Australian economics, that people are surprised that IPO returns haven't been strong. The back story of a few of these IPO's is that the father wants to sell, the kids don't want the hassle of a big business, especially in this economy, so they prep for IPO'ing it to sell.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Mags
Posted on: Mar 28 2017, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Well there should be more interest than there is. Last i knew we grew enough wheat for 300 million people. It's (inc. ag sector) is a significant part of our economy. But Canberra will keep messing them around, while allowing the tech sector stupid subsidies and exceptions.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Mar 14 2017, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Is Amazon's imminent arrival to blame, or is it more complicated than that? http://www.afr.com/real-estate/scentre-gro...20170220-guh7g9


I don't think it's more complicated. I think amazon is an easy target. Consumer credit growth is in reverse. Wages are falling in real terms, cost of living continues to push higher. So what's that add up to??? Lack of consumer spending, weak business growth/profits, hence pressure on the Land lords.

I'm bearish on property, and have been for years. Other than some commodities out the ground, and some farmers, Australia's growth is from the residential housing market: How long this can go on for is the real question: We're way past 100% private debt to GDP, mostly on property (by a factor of 2:1 mortgage debt:business debt), our 4 banks hold some 20+% of the ASX, and by all metrics, capital city property is overvalued anywhere from 20% to 75% depending on the report author.

Lowy's model worked well in the past, get big boys in for no/low rent, and the small guys will pay to be near them. As consumer spending continues to die, and people move to an online shopping experience this model will need to change: How can they effectively manage that, containing revenue remains to be seen.

There will always be a need for mall/plaza shopping, that's not going to become extinct. Just the idea that landlords can extract huge chunks of turnover for the privilege will need to change. Basically commercial property location is NOT the key feature it used to be.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Feb 16 2017, 08:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
I wish there was a way I could get the last 25 posts that excluded CUV posts


+10!

Or even if it could list the number of comments in a thread... Probably a nightmare to implement but.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Feb 16 2017, 08:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Don't let another record interim profit from the Commonwealth Bank fool you into thinking that times are not tough in Australian banking


Firstly, I do think CBA has a better loan portfolio, but that said, there's some great book cooking going on at the banks to keep the real situation covered. IP loans being swapped to OO loans etc.... I bet there's a horribly murky paper trail in these banks at this stage of the cycle.

A wise man once questioned if massive bank profits are a sign of a strong economy (the pollies will say it is), but if your economy is in too much debt, and Interest payments are consuming an ever growing amount of GDP, then that's a sign of sickness not strength...

So where are we??? Rhetorical..
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Feb 16 2017, 08:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
the sbrookies told us
' it isn't a pizza Co. it is a tech Co. likes of uber" that is why it traded at such high PE.
you be the judge people. i reckon it is over priced---no matter what they call it---tech Co, or what ever!!


That's like one of the big 4 saying they are a tech company... (Which one did try)

Are they in the game of selling technology? Or the info they gather from that (eg FB to advertisers)? NO!

They produce a consumer commodity, and franchise that model, and just happen to use technology faster/better/more advantageous than their peers. At the moment anyway (that's the trouble with become 'innovation focussed' a competitor can seriously dent your market share overnight).

High P/E is justifiable??? Not in my little realm. Maybe from a T/A angle there may be value, but all this high P/E rot is doing my sanity in.
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
Mags
Posted on: Feb 7 2017, 01:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Never mind the fact that
  • our mortgage debt is one of the highest in the world
  • our personal debt is one of the highest in the world
  • our housing prices are some of the highest in the world
  • Upto 80% of aussie wealth is in property.......
That wouldn't have anything to do with our banks not roaring like USA ones would it????? /s


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 27 2017, 07:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
What is so different about Australia that will sustain our bubble and prevent the bubble burst?


Not sure about Canada, but the RBA reports show that private debt is in reverse, for over 12 months. Business credit growth is slowing/stalled. It's only property lending that is still (slowly) growing.

So basically, Australia's domestic economy is in recession. Just covered over by housing debt growth and some foreign cash.

The Chinese money is a HUGE factor. Far bigger than most 'bulls' understand or admit.

If this foreign cash stutters, or reverses, our housing market is toast.

Mr. Bear is right: The housing market poses a huge risk at this point in time.

Disclaimer: I've said housing is over valued for years: I had no comprehension of the size of the stimulation and protection the political class would use to create the illusion that selling houses to each other can make you rich.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 16 2017, 06:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Interesting selection. None tickle my fancy, but then again, not much on the markets presents much value anyways, to my way of thinking.
I may delve a little deeper into those companies, see if I'm missing something.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 10 2017, 02:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

What? I thought if you don't have signal, then the phones not against your head to start with?

Just like all the utilities that have been privatised, the actual asset, the infrastructure is left to rot.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Dec 30 2016, 05:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Trump is just a distraction ... no chance he is a solution because ... because ... for the usual reason NO ONE or very few see the actual problem.


Hallelujah! Someone else thinks Trump is a side show! While no pro-trump guy, I have a feeling he's gonna get blamed for alot of things completely out of his control. Somethings will change, some will stay them same, there's alot of old power that will do anything to make 'non political' trump look a fool. I don't envy him at all: I suspect when he's done, he'll regret ever stepping up to the plate.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Dec 30 2016, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Thanks nipper, I don't hold or follow blue sky: But have a mate bang on about how good it is. I generally find the model repulsive as a listed entity. When I read those debt levels you have in that article, my suspicions are confirmed. A risky, risky play for a retail investor, and another IPO sure to be missing from the ASX in 10 years.

Oh well, a fool and their money are easily parted.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Dec 30 2016, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'm guessing mark is like a few of us: We can't find the words and statistics to back up our thoughts: Or in other words trying to QUANTIFY what is going on in all asset and currency classes is so unusual, so unique, so uncharted, that the details and support we need don't exist yet.

As I look around, with waaayyyy too much in cash, I just can't see anything that gives value, let alone has and underlying support level 'should' the 8 year US bull market call it quits. So, yes, I've missed heaps of upside, but I just can't see what's justifying it. I suspect most of it is cash finally making it's way out from all the QE the central banks unleashed, and the abundance of cash fleeing China, which raises it's own question:

So all the cash outflowing from China... Who's it belong too?? Well supposedly those in power and high up in the PRPOC and it's 'communist/SOE's'....... If China's so strong, so full of growth, why is there this rush to get PRIVATE cash out of china, and buy anything regardless of price/value...... It doesn't support a sustainable growth theory for China's domestic economy.

And just like 2007/08/09 you're gonna hear from the media alot "No -one predicted this was coming".... Predicted?????, no one needed to predict, this was a certainty that just needed a trigger to wake people up. Either prices crash all over the world and value/justification returns to the markets, or it sucks itself up in a massive debt vacuum implosion... Fun times for the unprepared.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 23 2016, 03:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

It's all beyond a joke now surely?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 8 2016, 06:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Given private debt stalled in Australia last year, this shouldn't be occurring.
What's causing it? Pretty obvious really isn't it. Often what the media sprout, and what the masses believe as truth, are in reality, just myths that gained traction.

This is one case, where the myth is real. This money pouring into the country is the only thing holding up RE. First it was mining towns tanking, then rural areas, now I believe larger towns/cities are experiencing falls, but Syd and Mel, man oh, man, they are booming.

Only a fool wouldn't sell out into that market.

How long now until the price reversal?? Dunno, but it's a huge bet to think it can keep going from here.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 31 2016, 12:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

When are these aussie banks going to stop playing these stupid games/???
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: Oct 31 2016, 12:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Absolutely agree! I hear complaints of them buying farms. Now Aussie farmers are going broke with 3 or 4 generations of knowledge, how is a state owned company, thousands of miles away, in a totally foreign climate going to make money????????

Just like QLD in the 90's, I expect a massive exodus of Chinese capital at some stage. Good/bad for the local economy? Hard to say.

Same for Syd: If they're crazy enough to pay millions for a place cos it's SYD or Melb, let them do it: The local market can't possibly sustain these prices long term, so let the locals cash out, then buy back in at a later date......

I know that thought process is very, very offensive in this Housing orientated economy we've built... but meh, I don't care no more.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 29 2016, 10:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Scratch that, it was this page:

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp...1db66e4464e4eba
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Oct 29 2016, 09:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Keen's problem was he got too loud and committed to a time frame. I read an article by him over 10 years ago, comparing our local economy to that of Japan's, saying our debt was too much and that as debt growth slowed/stopped/retreated a recession would occur.

Of course the mining boom went full boar, people lost track of debt and we went like crazy, then GFC, the government went crazy, encouraged us to borrow again and it took care of itself. Then China started doing all sorts of weird stuff and their rich are parking wealth all around the globe. Despite the headlines, this is more about wealth preservation than "owning a piece of Australia", it's going on all over the world.

There's no doubt that a housing correction will occur. The timing is the issue that no one can get right. Mind you, the bulls are wrong just as often, but they have a fiat/fractional reserve currency system that blows a tail wind in their direction. I still believe, we'll see prices drop to below year 2000 levels once adjusted for inflation. If this comes true, there will be many shattered dream and household budget.

PS: Pretty sure this is the article: I couldn't find it for years the-recession-we-cant-avoid
I originally printed it, then threw it out because "i'll always be able to google it".... Never trust the net to be static!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 16 2016, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
long term the AUD should average lower?


That's my view. I'm very bearish long term on the AU$, short term though who knows. I expect our banking/finance industry "problems" to continue to pick up pace, But then again compared to what JPN, EU, face, who knows right?
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 16 2016, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I did jump on the IPO, and still not sure how I feel about this one. I am far from a trader, and am well aware I 'should' have dumped them early one.

Trouble is, I dis-believe anyone who says they know where the market is headed short term. We're along way from using fundamental values on many, many stocks, locally and especially globally.

So infrastructure, in my eyes, is kind of a very conservative bet in a very weird environment. Not a great bet, but not the worst, from a fundamentalist point of view.
  Forum: By Share Code

Mags
Posted on: May 4 2016, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Anyways, my take on the 4corners thing:

They didn't touch the fact that retirees are buying multimilllion $$$$ PPOR's then going on the full pension....... When the pension is equal to nearly $2 term deposit..... and now, thanks to the changes to super from the budget, they are now going after the self funded, but leaving the asset rich, cashflow poor PPOR owner alone....

We've known for years (easily 10 years) that loan applications are getting doctored. Most of my mates have declared rental income on their loan applications...trouble is, that 'rent' is from the house they are purchasing to live in..... I've even heard of contractors going 6 months with out 'pay' only to condense 12 months pay into 6 months to make their income appear better. Sub prime is not just a yankie thing.

They barely touched the key ratios of the situation. Private debt, RMBS debt, % of wealth tied to housing, reliance of the economy on stamp duty etc.

They didn't touch Rudd/Gillards massive FHOB grants that added billions of dollars of debt to RMBS through the multiplier effect.

They didn't talk about the massive growth in Interest only loans

They didn't talk about the massive growth in mortgage arrears

Or the fact that our banks are only a cough away from collapse.

They didn't touch the fact that turnbulls electorate claims the highest amount of -ve gearing per property (interesting fact)

They didn't touch the amount of pressure bank staff are under to sell loans

and many, many more problems.

But just like USA, Japan, England, Ireland, Iceland etc. etc. it's only after the collapse will people question why nothing was done.

@triage

I'm not certain we'll need an external event as such. It may have already occurred with the implosion of the mining boom. The devastation in rural areas is only just coming to light, and it's bad. Real bad. And it's starting to effect in the cities. FIFO workers aren't spending in cities, jobs are disappearing, confidence plunging.

Is it enough to dent the confidence in housing??? Not sure, but I wouldn't make a bet either way. At these stratospheric debt levels, everything is amplified.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 4 2016, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Mags, sounds like you are channelling a mix of Steve Kean and Kahuna (down to loose spelling; nothing to lose)


Not sure what that comment means, but don't like my spelling? I don't care. I'm (naturally, ie. I don't have to work hard at it) 20/20 maths student. Which is more important.....

(Old man rocking his chair back and forth in retirement home) "Oh, look the grammar and spelling of these kids is horrible. I think spellings very important, it got me a job doing blah,blah,blah!"

or

(Old man rocking his chair back and forth in retirement home) "I still can't believe people mess around with debt for consumption. You know, it was Einstein that said compound interest was the greatest ever invention. Those that don't understand it, pay it, those that understand it earn it. It's why I retired wealthy, early and healthy"
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: May 2 2016, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
housing affordability and negative gearing and the generation left wondering if they will ever own their own home


Nah, I know I'll own my home. I knew it was a bubble, and didn't want to get involved, using debt, at the wrong part of the cycle.

Just unlike nearly everyone I know, I wont be using the next 40 years income to do that. Or have it repossessed. Or sweat as it loose thousands of dollars of value every month for years on end.

So, I missed out on the upside of the market. I didn't own 30 homes, and make a fortune. I honestly don't feel as though I missed out.

But let me ask, how many people do you know who were bragging about how much money they were making off the ASX in the early/mid 2000's? And where is their fortune now? I suspect this property bubble will be the same. Those bragging of $5m portfolios will watch it fall away.

As I get older, I see that nearly all 'investors' fail to exit their 'asset' cleanly, profitably or at all. And instead, work, worry and loose sleep over said 'investment'.

Ironically, after many squabbles with the wife over property, I always said she can have as many properties as she wants when the market corrects properly. But nowadays, she sees her friends with 'investment' properties, struggling financially and she wants nothing to do with property.

On the topic of -ve gearing, what a blast! Very, very few people understand it. I've even heard one person tell me that -ve gearing doesn't work, because she was told she'd get money back every week from the tax office (which is true if you apply for your return to be paid weekly), but the house costs more than the money from the ATO. No one told her that bit. LMFAO. Seriously, how daft are these idiots?

All I know is, once this housing bust really gets underway, Australia is a basket case, and alot of people are going to loose their lifes work. Don't get me wrong, I don't feel sorry for them, they were greedy and ignorant. Most have never studied a trend line, let alone as asset bubble. And then borrowed multiples of their income for it. LMAO, that is stupid! So stupid!

The ones I feel for, are the silent, as usual. The small business owners who will go through hell, either earning nothing, laying of staff, loosing their own homes etc. and the low paid labourers of our economy. The working poor.

Oh well, at least there's something to look forward to watching tomorrow night.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Apr 28 2016, 09:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
who d'ya reckon said these words


How to take that talk seriously? It's all ok though, because housing value falls wont effect the rest of the economy :-/ sarcasm

The next 6 months will be pretty interesting, I'm hearing some funny stuff about Sydney especially. But now with deflation about, another round of rate cuts might put a pump under prices again, especially if our dollar takes another hit. But then again, the dollar dropping is causing some foreign owners to bail out of our housing.

Who the hell knows.

But when a country has one of the highest private debt levels in the world, and something like 80% of their wealth is tied to property, and 60% of that property is financed, and 50% of new mortgages are Interest Only..... No good can come from that, regardless of actual dollar figures, the structure of the market is stuffed.

Just as the USA proved, collapsing bubbles cause recessions and huge unemployment spikes, not the other way round. Something almost no "economist" can get their head around.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Apr 20 2016, 01:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I don't follow the market like I used to, but I do believe your right, lj wanting to ipo.

Very few people understand ipo. Companies only ipo for one of two reasons.

A: they use that cash to expand...... usually new industries that have trouble securing capital by normal means.
Or
B: the owners want to cash out..... when the owners as cashed as JM would like to portray its obvious this applies.

Interesting to see he bought another 550,000 shares at the low.... one day after trading resumed.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Apr 19 2016, 02:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

The disaster that is McGrath ipo will go down as a heist to rival dse. The timing of the ipo can't be ignored. Very, very opportunistic. He's made out a fortune but I really wonder at what expense. News.com.AU isn't running any thing on him.I suspect his advertising is too important. Will shark tank talk about it? Of course not.

The big risk, how bad had he burned his reputation? If it sees his franchises losing listings and the franchises break away.....ouch.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Feb 19 2016, 09:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Do I continue to think we have a massive problem in Australia with how we are so heavily exposed to the residential real estate market? You betcha.


Same, I have for years. For the same reason you state, high personal debt, too much as a % of total wealth. And the last one, the fact that our market is so manipulated makes the upside so much larger, but the downside will be epic, when it finally goes.

-ve gearing, FHO grants, building/developing grants, the fact that it's almost the only thing a bank will loan against, dodgy accounting & tax returns... it's amazing what's gone/going on.

Of course, when the yanks see our housing figures ie. debt levels, wealth levels etc. they are shocked, as their market never approached what we've achieved here. I honestly think almost no-one in Australia knows the wrath that will be unleashed when it does collapse. They're RBMS never approached GDP, let alone exceed it. LMAO. Sustainable? Hell no.

Oh well, just don't enter the market at this point in time with ANY debt that you wont be able to manage. Yes RBA rates are likely to drop, but no-one knows what will happen to lending costs when our dollar is about as desirable as a Greek bond.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Jan 1 2016, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

I'll sound a bit way out there with this, but even >$100 barrel I suggest oil is too cheap.

Wait, what?

The way I see it is this: Yes, almost every country on earth has lower labour costs than Australia. But surely, the low cost of transport is a major input cost into building items on the other side of the globe, then shipping them over. If the price of transport was prohibitive, we would see more manufacturing jobs remain in Australia. But this of course is only hypothetical, as we would see other costs rise as markets trend toward equilibrium (where the market meddlers stay away).

Anyways, to me it's amazing that a fluid is found, dug up, transported, refined, shipped, blended, transported then retailed for $1/$1.50 per litre. When a 600mL of coke costs how much?????? It's only made across the city for 3c a litre or something.....

$50 of fuel allows a family in a modern car to travel some 600 or more kilometres, it really is amazingly cheap stuff IMHO.

But to agree with KianJ, I suspect the price of oil is more a symptom of a sick global economy (coupled with some greed for market share) than an indication that 2016 is going to be a booming stock market year.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Mags
Posted on: Dec 16 2015, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

Similar thoughts here. I guess that's what experience brings. As a young bloke I just saw property as too illiquid, expensive entry and exits costs, and huge leverage...To me that's risky.

But I've come to learn, rightly or wrongly, markets will always exceed sensible levels, on the upswing and the downswing. For a level headed person, if it feels like the top, then there's plenty left basically. But it's hard to keep a level head, and not get biased. My best example of this is Palmer. The bloke was valued at >$5billion only a few years ago, and yet now he's blackmailing governments for a $30m guarantee???? Unbelievable, that's pure greed, I would have been selling down my holdings at those levels, to ensure I'd never, ever have money fears again.

Money is a funny master.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Mags
Posted on: Nov 10 2015, 05:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 419

QUOTE
Sooner than later, we should see next cycle in the housing market. It should follow currency cycle.


Care to elaborate?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

3 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 >

Cant find what you are looking for? Show all active topics from the last 3 months


New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)



TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING