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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
nipper
post Posted: Jan 13 2020, 08:02 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jan 13 2020, 07:37 PM

yep, I remember him on CNBC when I lived in Europe, more than 20 yrs ago. he was retired, or is that 'retired', and globetrotting, then. He did make sense, when asked for a view (or, put another way, pretty silly to bet against him). A bit of a commodities bull, if I remember correctly.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jan 13 2020, 07:37 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 11 2020, 04:47 PM

Amazed Jim has not shuffled off yet. Yes, a legend, made a fortune from memory working with George Soros when Soros took someone else's advice and broke the Bank of England, retired in his early mid thirties, travelled around the world, wrote some very readable investment books, as an old man moved to Singapore so his young daughter could grow up speaking mandarin. My impression is that he has been very early with pretty much all of his predictions in the last decade or so. But we live in an age devoid of consequences so predicting that there will be consequences has been a mug's game.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 11 2020, 04:47 PM
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QUOTE
Central banks around the world will continue printing money as long as it’s necessary, says legendary investor Jim Rogers, calling it “madness.”

He talks to RT’s Boom Bust about the state of the global economy and what could be over the horizon. Never before in world history have interest rates been so low, Rogers says. The US’ central bank, the Fed, increased its balance sheet by over 500 percent in less than a decade. Japan’s central bank prints money and buys ETFs and bonds.

“These are astonishing statements and facts… this is insanity, that’s not how sound economic systems are supposed to work.” According to the trader, in 2008 we had problems because of too much debt.

However, “since then the debt has skyrocketed everywhere and it’s going higher and higher. We are going to have a horrible time when this all comes to an end.” “Eventually, the market is going to say: ‘We don’t want this, we don’t want to play this game anymore, and we don’t want your garbage paper anymore’,” Rodgers explained.

When that happens then central banks will print even more and buy even more assets.“And that’s when we will have very serious problems… We all are going to pay a horrible price someday but in the meantime it’s a lot of fun for a lot of people.
https://www-rt-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/w...rrible-times%2F

Madness? Yes. Socially divisive? I'd think so.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Nov 28 2019, 10:46 AM
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Kahuna has run with the outrage for a while, and the numbers seem to be getting worse:

Deaths of despair': Americans dying younger than other wealthy places.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/deaths-of-desp...53ejc.html?btis

QUOTE
The engine that powers the world's most potent economy is dying at a worrisome pace, a "distinctly American phenomenon" with no easily discernible cause or simple solution.

Those are some conclusions from a comprehensive new study by researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University showing that mortality rates for US adults ages 25-64 continue to increase, driving down the general population's life expectancy for at least three consecutive years.

The report, Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates in the United States, 1959-2017, was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. It paints a bleak picture of a workforce plagued by drug overdoses, suicides and organ-system diseases while grappling with economic stresses.

"This looks like an excellent paper - just what we needed to help unravel the overall decline in life expectancy in the US," said Eileen Crimmins, an associate dean at the University of Southern California who's an expert on the link between health and socioeconomic factors.

In a trend that cuts across racial and ethnic boundaries, the US has the worst midlife mortality rate among 17 high-income countries despite leading the world in per-capita spending on healthcare.

And while life expectancy in those other industrialised nations continues to inch up, it has been going in the opposite direction in America, decreasing from a peak of 78.9 years in 2014 to 78.6 in 2017, the last year covered by the report.

By comparison, according to the Peterson-Kaiser Health System Tracker, the average longevity in similar countries is 82.2 years. Japan's is 84.1, Australia's 82.5, France's 82.4, Canada's 81.9 and Britain's 80.9. They left the US behind in the 1980s and increased the distance as the rate of progress in this country diminished and eventually halted in 2011

- between 1999 and 2017, midlife mortality from drug overdoses spiked by 386.5%
- in same period and cohort, deaths from hypertensive diseases increased 78%, and linked to obesity, up 114%
- suicides rose by 38%



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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kahuna1
post Posted: Sep 17 2019, 11:09 PM
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Agreed ...

A pox to them all.


Nuclear stuff ... well EU ... 28 EU nations ... China and Russia thought the nuclear deal was being upheld.In some ways, Iran made the mistake of taking USA embassy hostage ...Took back its assets , Oil ones which the Shah took when he came in ... lost when he went out.
I listened to Dastiari the other nights who his parents supported the overthrow of the shah ... he was born there .. went back recently and spoke negatively about the current regime. I looked, being curious and he left AGE 2 ... came to Australia age 4 from Iran.
Complex stuff and humans, me least of all ...

That his parents left prior to bloody meat grinder of the Iran Iraq war and the horror of being attacked by chemical weapons and nerve agents when Iraq started loosing say in 1985 has made them who and what they are, Iran.
They begged for help ... to the UN .... 350 separate incidents .... between 1985 and 1990 ... well documented.
What they are today, the nation, is shaped and forged in this.


Ignoring other issues. Saudi Arabia bankrolled this Iraq invasion to the tune of about 20 billion back in 1980 ..
Not being of the faith, the threat of a democratic but religious based democracy where state and church are not separated is a direct threat to the Monarchy of Saudi Arabia as well as places like Kuwait and Bahrain. Bahrain actually has a majority of Shia faith ... like Iran but is ruled by Sunni Muslims as is Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.


None of it good, or pleasant or easily solved with a terrible history the last 50 or so years. Strangely they lived in peace at times for 1,000 years and sometimes with Antichrist and Jewish minorities. Iran was actually friendly to Israel when the Shah was there, but he was a puppet installed by the USA and Uk identical to Noriaga in Panama or say MArcos in the Philippines.


None of it much to do about fair, or equal treatment for things. One set of rules for one nation and another for the other. Its ok for one thing to happen to one group and not to the other.

I sadly suspect that outside Israel, all the rest quite happily will be discarded and if you can get them to fight each other, rather than the Arab states who have joined together occasional against Israel, that too is fine according to USA policy.
Venezuela and say Cuba still being treated the same way. Meanwhile we now have a massive nuclear club outside the USA. I am not too sure since Libya almost had a fully assembled bomb and handed it over and was not even suspected that it had one under development that they have any real idea about who or what Iran has. Lots of stuff missing from Soviet states when they split and some of the missiles Iran has copied and improved are from those regions.


Yep a pox to them all ... but ... being human, I wish only for good stuff and people to live in peace and follow whatever beliefs they wish.
Peace .... and kindness seems obsolete and naive I suppose.Where this ends, given Trumps views about the deal contradicted inspectors on the ground and he did the identical thing ... with Iraq, they even payed ball and let USA inspection teams in with no warning in 2002-3 ? ... still that was not enough. We were told, the world was told they had WMD's and they did not.

Playing ball, Does not work. Saddam was executed, Ghaffi in Libya even played ball, but was invaded and he died with a bayonet in his behind. Strange as it sounds Libya had the best healthcare and education system in the whole of Africa prior to the UN led invasion and bombing. Not suggesting HE ... or Iran or Saddam Hussein is or are saints.


Iran ... its already endured a lot since it kicked out the Shah and not being Arabs, not speaking Arabic ... seems like most things totally lost on the USA powers to be. The list of things that, well would ... make even a reasonable person or nation take very drastic action occurred many years ago in there case.


As I said, they spend less of there GDP on defense than even Australia does !! I think its 1.5% ... and its more the type of weapon that is meant to STOP of slow someone invading or make them think very hard about bombing them. Basically a bloody buzzsaw if provoked and whilst USA claimed some action by them, they are ranked by the military experts either number 12 or number 14 in terms of dangerous armies. that is saying something when the top spots go to USA, Russia, China, Japan then France, Germany, UK .... Iran is NOT far behind and scary if provoked. Really scary. Sadly with I think some good cause after running to the United nations after WMD's were used on IT .... 350 times ... and the USA decided to shoot a civilian airliner down .. blow up most of its offshore oil rigs and so on around 1990.


Sadly, this latest stuff, is what it is. I doubt its very much over and Yemen, separate from Iran whilst not even in the same league, the revelation that 10 drones can wipe out 50% of the oil capacity of the worlds largest producer for a while is not about to stop them from launching more drones. At $15,000 per drone and say $20,000 with the rockets ... so 200k in drones takes 5 million barrels of oil a day offline for say 3 months, and needing to rebuild so 100 million ? The toll on Saudi Arabia and its already stretched finances is not a good one.

Roughly 25 billion lost revenue ?

And the USA and global equity markets due to quite obvious plunge protection team support don't move ? Sit 1% below all time highs ?

These imbeciles I thought were insane late 2007 reporting GDP growth in the USA at 5% plus when clearly Merrill Lynch had lost its capital and Citi already had reported loosing at least 5 years of profits, this ... given the extremities we now reside in terms of valuation, in the face of extreme international issues with Trade, not just China and USA but EU.USA ... Japan Korea ... and then this festering stuff ... India/Pakistan ,,, and not even a blink of risk aversion added to the S+p 500 ? Looming USA budget issues ,,, a fiscally broken system with now 1.055 trillion deficit and 22.6 trillion debt or 106% of GDP and exponentially getting worse.



There are about 4 other massive issues as well, so Iran is somewhat a distraction, irrelevant in many ways to the underlying festering situation of policies that cannot continue. USA in 2023 will be 120% debt to GDP and collect a mere 30% of Tax to GDP and a mere 13% federally v 120% debt to GDP on that side. Not too worried about the rest of the govt debt overall, as they collect 17% of GDP via state and local and city stuff and its about 20% of GDP on top of that pile.

Yes lets ignore it all.

When 5% of the global oil market is taken out for say 3 months, maybe more, likely more conflict in the region as well, and the market DOES NOT REACT ... I know something is seriously wrong.
Its broken.

If I say was going for a loan and went you know how I said I earn 100k a year, its only 20k, and you know how I said I have no debt, I actually owe 300k on a 20k income, would the bank still lend me 200 k ? In 2007 they would, and did, as long as I got my commission.

Either we respect rules and risk learnt over the past 5,000 years, or we don't.
Strange times and whilst not really a pox on them all, hoping for the best, the outlook is and was bad pre Trump, its far worse now. Why not seize another ship on the high seas. or threaten to invade North Korea or Venezuela or some other nation. Mr Morrison better behave and roll over . Turnball got hung up on and had to wait 90 minutes on an aircraft carrier for Trump to finally decide to see him.

Marcon at least told USA to get nicked and Google even paid 1 billion Euros ... about 5% of what the tech boys owe France for the last decade.
Enjoy. Maybe a new all time high ... excuse ? I have no idea and at times one is advised not to try and estimate stupidity because it will always surprise you.


Still ... my technical and other models tell me the USA tries that 3,165 level on the S+P 500 .... but my brain is going. Well ... the risks are peaking and likely more than I have ever seen in my 35 plus years. The fiscal train wreck and potential and impossible to avoid things in the 3-5 year time-frame assure 30% if not 50% on the USA side. At some stage the USA does get universal healthcare and 200 billion in profits on that sector become at best 20 billion. Multiply that by a P/E of say 20 .... and you have HALF the 50% in one move.


For now, rah rah rah .... to have the plunge protection team being used in times like this , a mere 1% from all time highs speaks volumes about Trumps way he ranks his performance and thats via stock market performance. Sadly, fiscally, its a black hole. As to global trade, free trade, relations, tensions and lots of other things, relationships will never be the same again. China will never be able to rely upon USA for anything. It must become independent in all aspects of technology and is doing so at a scary pace.


Enuf ... too hard ... sorry but thinking out loud and its not making any sense to me, or any history I have ever seen. Lessons with the same outcome every time, every nation that has done some things, the market may continue for a while, the nation or empire keeps going and then, like gravity and a drone that supposedly was not over Iran but funnily enuf when shot down the debris landed in Iranian territory, these things end the same way.


Enjoy ... will go hug someone I love or tell someone the same.


Mark



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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Pendragon
post Posted: Sep 17 2019, 10:06 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 17 2019, 09:30 PM

Indeed - a pox on them all!!!

We spent a week in Dubai while the Burj Khalifa was under construction. Our hotel, the Al Maha was in the desert.
On the way we we saw numerous compounds with low adobe huts with open (no glass) windows and definitely no air conditioning and high wire fencing all around and no shade or greenery.

We were told by our driver that this is where the workers (mostly Philippine) on the Burj Khalifa were billeted. To all intents and purposes they were just prisoners and treated as such. Just bussed to and from work and kept under lock and key while not at work.

The Sheik's horses were kept in much better accommodation!!!

Consequently the "magnificence" of the Burj Khalifa leaves me cold!!



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nipper
post Posted: Sep 17 2019, 09:30 PM
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In Reply To: Pendragon's post @ Sep 17 2019, 09:08 PM

700 Filipino maids that ran away from their Saudi employers will die, inside the the Philippine Embassy in Riyadh.
And Iran uses hostage taking as bargaining chips

A Pox on both of them IMO



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Pendragon
post Posted: Sep 17 2019, 09:08 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Sep 17 2019, 05:27 PM

K,

A bit of a stretch to say a nuclear deal with Iran was working while it allowed Iran to develop Nuclear weapons.

I also, like Trump, would be inclined to tear up any deal which clearly was faulty and openly being flaunted.

IMHO Saudi Arabia is the enemy and needs to be brought into line. Why America (and not only America) is turning a blind eye to Saudi and its proselytizing throughout Europe and the world is beyond me.

I live for the day Saudi runs out of oil!!!!!


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kahuna1
post Posted: Sep 17 2019, 07:58 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 17 2019, 07:17 PM

Fair enough ....
I was speaking of intended Genocide as objective as has been stated By Saudi Arabia
Warsaw Ghetto was cut off, much like Yemen ...
I don't think a single one you mentioned is an issue.
I believe I have covered why Shia may actually not be fond of the Jewish people via the occupation of Palestine and actions against Shia Muslims in Palestine.

Each to their own. Because they object ... they must be killed.
Bravo ....

Irredentisma policy of advocating the restoration to a country of any territory formerly belonging to it.
Gee .... I thought that was their right.
My mistake.
That Saudi Arabia if anything is more active in their TOTAL hatred of the Jewish people and bankrolled not one but two massive attacks against Israel is a sad fact.

That the number 3 and 4 most holy sites now lie inside Israel is an issue for both Shia and Sunni Muslims of which the invading of their holy Mosque for the last 2 years in the last week of Ramadan has occurred only makes the whole religion based hatred even more an open wound for any Muslim.
What a bunch of fun.





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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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nipper
post Posted: Sep 17 2019, 07:17 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Sep 17 2019, 05:27 PM

"Only analogy in history " - Bulldust. So selective you trivialise your argument. History is littered with collective inhumanity

Houti ideology alignments
Zaidi revivalism
Anti-imperialism
Irredentism
Anti-Zionism
Antisemitism (officially denied)
Yemeni nationalism
Big tent populism

- not really my 'go to' choices of political positioning.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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