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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
early birds
post Posted: Jan 4 2019, 08:26 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 4 2019, 08:18 AM

lucky new year mick and others.
i know you are a shark mick, so what i make might be a pocket money for you... lmaosmiley.gif

to be honest, i made a port then few other stoploss will eat into it, that is the way trader's going.

wait for aud/usd back towards 70.50ish then try to short it again, my plan!!



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 4 2019, 08:18 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 3 2019, 03:37 PM

So EB, how many of these events do we need till you get that rolls??
Maybe a convertible?
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 03:37 PM
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia

Traders are still seeking to piece together what happened just before 9:30 a.m. in Sydney, when orders came to sell Australia’s dollar and Turkey’s lira against the yen. While some pointed to risk aversion triggered by Apple Inc. cutting its sales outlook, others said Japanese retail investors were behind the trades. Whatever the cause, the moves were exacerbated by algorithmic programs and thin liquidity with Japan on holiday.

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i watched drop and amazed then hit buy button near the low for aud/usd made good and fast profit within 30 minutes. lmaosmiley.gif
rare opportunities , after i have a quick searched news......

but aud/usd ---going to go lower as the pare went down below 70cps, looking at FED and RBA------hmmmm gonna be lower imho!




Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  triage  nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 4 2018, 09:33 AM
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Following US bond selloff (higher yields) for longer dated paper, and Aussie bonds (spreads) now gapping, the local currency has been hit.

Nice selection of charts here:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/10/au...t-36-year-lows/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Sep 19 2018, 10:24 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 18 2018, 03:09 PM

thanks Mick.

if RBA hikes rate sooner then i reckon AUD gonna go a lot lower than it's current level---because RBA 's rate hike would be the "last stroke" to aussie's housing price then the domino will pile on real economy that knocks AUD lower. that is my thoughts only
now the trade war between Sam and china is getting worse that will knock off iron ore and other mining stuff .......

RBA at rock and hard place and they craw to this position themselfs. weirdsmiley.gif



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 18 2018, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 15 2018, 01:46 PM

You may well have got out at the right time EB.

From BLOOMBERGS

QUOTE
Australia’s central bank warned on risks to its outlook from U.S.-China trade tensions and weak wages, while reaffirming its next interest-rate move would likely be a hike.

Main Takeaways
“Significant tensions” around trade policy are a “material risk” to the global outlook, it said in minutes of the September policy meeting released Tuesday in Sydney
Unemployment is expected to decline gradually toward 5 percent and wage growth is expected to increase gradually as spare capacity in the labor market is absorbed
GDP growth likely to remain “above potential” through the forecast period and inflation is “likely to increase over time”
The minutes reiterated there was “no strong case” for a near-term adjustment to monetary policy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept rates steady for the past two years as it seeks to play an anchor role in the economy and generate confidence among firms. The strategy is slowly paying dividends as hiring and economic growth strengthen. But like much of the developed world, wage gains and inflation remain limited, and with spare capacity in the labor market still present, that seems unlikely to change rapidly.

A swing factor could be a decline in the currency, currently hovering in the low 70s; a fall into the mid-60s would stimulate exports and hiring and potentially accelerate inflation back to the mid-point of the RBA’s 2 percent to 3 percent target.
The modest depreciation in the Australia dollar was helpful for domestic economic growth”
“Drought conditions in some parts of Australia were expected to result in lower overall rural production and exports,” the RBA said, while noting a record crop was expected in Western Australia. The higher probability of El Nino suggested prospects for rain had fallen in the near term, which was likely to “increase the magnitude of any fall in farm output from the farm sector”
Recent mortgage rate increases by some Australian banks would likely unwind “about half of the decline observed in the average housing loan rate over the preceding year”


The RBA thinks the next rate move is up (what a surprise, they were damn near zero anyway, so the only way is up).

Mick




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early birds
post Posted: Sep 15 2018, 01:46 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 15 2018, 07:51 AM

you know what think Mick??
i guess you just did!! tongue.gif onya



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 15 2018, 07:51 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 14 2018, 09:11 PM

Have you been to visit that Rolls Royce dealer yet?😉



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Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 14 2018, 09:11 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 13 2018, 01:05 PM

ok, no more waiting.
closed out shorts at 72.00cps

we might have another stab at it late on. tongue.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 13 2018, 01:05 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 13 2018, 12:51 PM

from TA point of view that 71.40---71.50 is the key level to support AUD, now we have a fake break down on that level.
so for a short term trader close out shorts would be a wise move or discipline move.
but this jump is due to rumours that US going to ask china to talk about trade , so i reckon this issue will go on for some times given that crazy irrational Trump on the helmet
i would give another day {tomorrow is Friday} to see it drops below that key level again.
still holding my shorts but on the age to close it.



 
 


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