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OIL, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Apr 19 2019, 06:32 PM
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Posts: 5,395
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QUOTE
Over the course of the December quarter, the Brent oil price had collapsed from US$80 to US$50 due to a sharp ramp-up in US shale oil production out of the Permian Basin, which drove a rebuild in US oil inventories (signalling oversupply), and Saudi Arabia’s move to boost its production to 11 million barrels per day in expectation of additional US sanctions on Iran (which were subsequently delayed).

Since then, the picture has improved. In response to lower oil prices, US shale producers reduced their spending, with shale production capex now expected to fall by 10% in 2019, while the Saudis throttled back their production to 9.8 million barrels per day. This led the oil price to a quick rebound from US$50 back to US$69.

More importantly, we are seeing increasing evidence of a pick-up in offshore activity. Over the past three months, TechnipFMC won a number of new offshore contracts (including the Petrobras Mero project in Brazil and Eni’s Merakes field in Indonesia), and Transocean has continued to raise the tender rates for its deep-water drill ships.
Platinum Quarterly



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 4 2019, 09:30 AM
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Posts: 5,395
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QUOTE
It was a state secret and the source of a kingdom's riches. It was so important that US military planners once debated how to seize it by force. For oil traders, it was a source of endless speculation.

Now the market finally knows: Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest conventional oil field, can produce a lot less than almost anyone believed.

When Saudi Aramco on Monday published its first ever profit figures since its nationalisation nearly 40 years ago, it also lifted the veil of secrecy around its mega oil fields. The company's bond prospectus revealed that Ghawar is able to pump a maximum of 3.8 million barrels a day - well below the more than 5 million that had become conventional wisdom in the market.
https://www.afr.com/news/world/middle-east/...20190404-p51alk

- long suspected



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 28 2019, 08:28 AM
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US oil exports may be looking at a slowdown.

QUOTE
The complex web of U.S. pipelines, tanks and export terminals that’s helped make America the world’s top oil producer is causing a headache for some crude buyers.

As various types of crude pass through the supply chain from inland shale fields spanning Texas to North Dakota, they risk picking up impurities before reaching Asia -- the world’s biggest oil-consuming region. Specifically, refiners are worried about the presence of problematic metals as well as a class of chemical compounds known as oxygenates, which can affect the quality and type of fuel they produce.

Two refiners in South Korea -- the top buyer of U.S. seaborne supply -- have rejected cargoes in recent months due to contamination that makes processing difficult. Growing North American output from dozens of fields pushes everything from highly-volatile oil to sticky residue through shared tributaries and trunk pipes. Smaller carriers then take cargoes from shallow-water ports to giant supertankers in the Gulf of Mexico for hauling to far-away buyers.


Full article HERE

It may stabilise the oil price fall for a while, and negate the need for the Saudis to cut oil production.

Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 19 2018, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE
.... with WTI crude diving 7.2pc to a 16-month low of $US46.27 after WSJ said Russian output hit a record last month and EIA said US shale production will rise in January, the Energy sector will struggle again today.

Apart from supply concerns, crude oil may be the “canary in the coal mine” for the global economy, with charts now suggesting it will fall to $US36 a barrel, based on a bearish pennant pattern.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 5 2018, 06:36 PM
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The Saudi dilemma: To cut or not to cut
Oilprice.com
QUOTE
A recent report from Capital Economics said Saudi Arabia has its problems but it could withstand lower oil prices without feeling too much of a pinch. "Even if [Brent] prices fall further to $40-$50 a barrel, immediate balance of payments strains are unlikely to emerge," the report said, with its authors adding the Kingdom would be able to finance its trade deficit from its foreign exchange reserves "for at least a decade."

This suggestion is not universally accepted. Reuters' John Kemp this week offered a different perspective in his regular column on oil, noting Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves currently stand at US$500 billion, down from nearly US$750 billion in 2014 when the oil prices slumped under the weight of U.S. shale oil. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is in a major push to diversify its revenue streams and has committed a lot of money to it. It's a classic rock and a hard place situation for the Saudis.

Also, Kemp wrote, "The kingdom probably needs to keep several hundred billion dollars' worth of reserve assets on hand to maintain confidence in its fixed exchange-rate peg to the U.S. dollar and prevent a run on the currency."


read more - http://www.mining.com/web/saudi-dilemma-cut-not-cut/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 24 2018, 03:17 PM
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Oil prices drop … again
QUOTE
Brent crude prices dropped 1.5 per cent overnight to $US62.52 a barrel — around its lowest price since February.

The international benchmark price fell after US crude production jumped to its highest level since December 2017, fuelling concerns about the global oil market being oversupplied.

Last week, US inventories totalled 446.9 million barrels — following an increase of 4.9 million barrels.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is also worried about the emergence of a glut.

OPEC's biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, is being pressured to not slash its output, which would oil push prices higher again.

"Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy!... Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower!" US President Donald Trump tweeted on Wednesday.

To counter the oversupply concerns, OPEC is considering a deal to cut production when it next meets on December 6.

However, OPEC member Iran is expected to resist any voluntary reduction. Russia, an ally of OPEC, has also shown no sign it would join any cut.
- ABC/Reuters



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 22 2018, 09:19 PM
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Global oil demand under growing threat from electric cars, cleaner fuel
Reuters
QUOTE
Demand forecast raised by over 1 mln bpd vs last year

* But electric cars, fuel efficiency to have bigger impact

LONDON – Electric vehicles and more efficient fuel technology will cut transportation demand for oil by 2040 more than previously expected, but the world may still face a supply crunch without enough investment in new production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

Oil demand is not expected to peak before 2040, the Paris-based IEA said in its 2018 World Energy Outlook.

The IEA’s central scenario is for demand to grow by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) on average every year to 2025, before settling at a steadier rate of 250,000 bpd to 2040 when it will peak at 106.3 million bpd.

read more - http://www.mining.com/web/global-oil-deman...s-cleaner-fuel/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 14 2018, 04:30 PM
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Posts: 5,395
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QUOTE
- U.S. crude is plunging from nearly four-year highs six weeks ago to its lowest level since early December.

- The market outlook has changed: Investors were worried about a shortage of oil, but now expect supply to outstrip demand.

- Investors dumped risk assets like crude futures during a broad market sell-off last month.
https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s...ear-market.html



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 14 2018, 04:09 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/oil-markets...y-in-focus.html

Most analysts expect U.S. output to climb above 12 million bpd within the first half of 2019.

"This will, in our view, cap any upside above $85 per barrel (for oil prices)," said Jon Andersson, head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management.

The surge in U.S. production is contributing to rising stockpiles.
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can't understand why the heck some major firm talking about usd$100/b not long ago??
a lot of people knows that when WTI over usd$55/b then most of US shale oil will make money hence the rig count will serge if oil stays above $55/b longer than two months
as the result----oil market washed with US shale oil now that whacked oil market . wink.gif





 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 11 2018, 03:18 PM
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Saudi Arabia, Iraq Agree on Coordination Ahead of OPEC+ Talks
By Grant Smith , Mohammed Sergie , and Elena Mazneva
November 10, 2018, 11:01 AM GMT+11 Updated on November 11, 2018, 11:01 AM GMT+11
Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets Sunday for talks
Brent futures fell almost 4% last week, WTI lost around 5%

QUOTE
OPEC and its allies meet under mounting pressure to consider renewed production cuts after a slump in oil prices. Crude on both sides of the Atlantic tumbled Friday as the U.S. reported rising stocks and Washington granted waivers that lessen the impact of sanctions on Iranian exports. Brent plunged below $70 a barrel for the first time in six months, shedding 4 percent last week. WTI futures also tumbled, losing around 5%
.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...to-talk-of-cuts



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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