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Gold, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Mar 29 2019, 09:39 AM
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QUOTE
Most idiots have an 80/20 portfolio (80% stocks/20% bonds) or a 90/10 portfolio or even a portfolio that is 100% stocks. I have been making the case for a portfolio that is 35% stocks and 65% bonds. Historically (over the last 20 years), that portfolio has been giving you a little less return, with a lot less risk. In hedge fund terms, you would say that it has a better “Sharpe Ratio.”

I have been experimenting with variations on the 35/65 portfolio recently, with some incredible results. For example, a 35/55/10 portfolio (35% stocks, 55% bonds, 10% commodities) has even better risk/return characteristics. And if you have a fundamental view that commodities are underpriced, terrific.

But wait, there’s more. How about a 35/55/3/3/4 portfolio? That’s 35% stocks, 55% bonds, 3% broad commodities, 3% gold, and 4% REITs. If you think about what this is, it’s a stock/bond portfolio with a really good inflation hedge.

Want to know the risk/return of that portfolio? It gives you almost the return of the 80/20 portfolio with half the risk.

And it’s mostly because of the gold. Add gold to any portfolio (including gold mining equities) and the risk characteristics improve. In the old days, the miners used to be negatively correlated with the broad stock market. That isn’t quite true anymore, but the correlation is very low.

The 80/20 portfolio is ridiculous, with an insane amount of volatility. The main reason financial advisors put people in this portfolio is because of FOMO—they are afraid that if they put a client in a more conservative portfolio, that client will fire them in two years after watching all their friends make more money.
Jarad Dillian - The 10th Man



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Mar 5 2019, 12:58 PM
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Record production... 371 tonnes last year

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/03/05/oz-...21-year-record/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
denpal
post Posted: Jan 4 2019, 06:13 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 3 2019, 05:37 AM

Yes it is at an all time high in AUD. XGD has done amazingly in the last month. Surely we consolidate now. My main hold is NST as for the last few years, also added EVN last year and there are a few others too like SAR doing very well.


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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 05:37 AM
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Gold is now up over 10% i past 30 days (in AUD terms that is , which is kinda important her in OZ).



Mick





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KianJ
post Posted: Nov 16 2018, 06:56 PM
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Chart for gold using parallel trendlines.Price action pushing back over the main trendline would be bullish indeed.Until then I remain on the sidelines.



 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 16 2018, 06:17 PM
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$gold $xau back on the bid, constructive lift (trendy)



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 


jacsar
post Posted: Oct 19 2018, 02:53 AM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BFj7-eKU9M .... interesting little story

 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 15 2018, 09:45 AM
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not much needs to be said other than to observe levels for longs to protect
break-out is word of the month ..at least for gold
#COT #momo
Attached Image








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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 8 2018, 09:29 AM
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1 of 2

local $xgd comps looking healthy again today
Attached Image








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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 3 2018, 04:28 PM
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xau-US$/gold series of H/H's and H/L's alongside gold a mere 6 handles from confirming breakout
not surprising on last nights strength to see $xgd and smalls up today
the overlapping of pricing in the near term suggests a lot of compression, deep pockets are not in a hurry for price discovery
other technical pov's:
XAU index https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.as...amp;Ticker=^XAU

Dow Miners index https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.as...;Ticker=^DJUSMG




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
 


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