Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

4 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 >

normc
Posted on: Oct 13 2008, 04:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I also bought ROC today (@.59). I've made quite a few purchases over the past two days, with ROC being the only one in the 'speculative' area (well GPT is a bit speculative too, but you get the idea). Broke my own rule in buying such a share when there is no indication of a bottom. But no matter which way I look at it, this stock is way oversold, given its new identity as an emerging producer.

I though it was worth a punt at this level. Only time will tell.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 13 2008, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I last sold IGO @ over $7.00. What a difference a crash makes.
Bought back in @ $1.66 today.
Might be a rocky road for a little while. But with plenty of cash in the bank they are well positioned to ride this out and come out well.

Given time, no reason we won't see $7.00 again, but even half that figure within a couple of years would be OK. Dividends on the way make the wait a bit easier to take.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 13 2008, 11:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Couldn't resist and bought WES today @$21.99. Last time I had WES I sold at just over $40. At the time I would never have dreamed of getting back in at this price.

How the world has changed.

Given time and the right management, $40 can come again, with nice dividends on the way - that's my aim anyway.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 10 2008, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Not a lot of interest in this one from Share Scene members.
The last post refers to share price of $11.00.
Wow, how the world has changed. I bought back in today at $5.01. I doubt I have picked the bottom (who can?), but happy to accumulate at this price and below if the opportunity arises.
I last sold these at about $9.80. When price kept going up, I thought my opportunities in GUD had passed.
As a long term hold in the super fund, I'm pretty happy to get them at this price.

What a nutty world we live in!
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 10 2008, 05:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Well, I couldn't resist and just had to buy in today at $27.00.
Wouldn't be at all surprised if this is not the bottom, but at this price it is hard to resist for the Super Fund. Happy to hold long term and accumulate some more if price drops further.

The world has gone nuts!
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 28 2008, 06:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: djthommo on Thursday 28/02/08 06:34pm

You are holding back a bit djthommo. Tell us what your really think!

By the way, I agree with you entirely. Get this one into court quickly. Either Sullivan and the Board go to jail for failure to disclose and manipulating the market, or West does. His deliberate, actions have cost investors many millions. He needs to show he is right or face the consequences. If he is wrong, he can not claim 'free press' as a defence. He has a responsibility to take reasonable actions to check his facts. CIY claim they gave that opportunity, but West was not interested.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 15 2008, 07:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

We lost our way a bit in today's ODI. Gillie did brilliantly, but (unusual for him) he took a long time to get the last 15 or 20 runs for his hundred. The whole team seemed to forget about the game and started to focus on Gillie's innings and his wish to get 100 in his last WACA game. Iniative quickly moved to Sri Lanka, who bowled and were captained very well under the circumstances.

I think the team has let themselves down a bit today. Might cost them the match. Well done SriLanka if that is the case. Might be a wake up call that we are up against two pretty good one day sides in this series. Making the final is not a foregone conclusion. We will have to earn it.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Feb 5 2008, 04:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: bam_bamm on Tuesday 05/02/08 03:47pm

Christian Lange's quarterly update via Boardroom Radio (below) was fairly bullish. He says they will make their targets for the full year and parts of the business are in front of plan.

I haven't bought more during the recent slump, but gee it is tempting.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 5 2008, 04:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: dylan on Tuesday 05/02/08 02:51pm

I was one of those 13c sellers Dylan. Having bought back in at 10.5c during the recent slump, I couldn't resist the quick 24% profit.
I suspect there will be more buying opportunities in the next couple of months, so I might be back.

I'm not normally a short term trader, but it seems a reasonable alternative in the current market, if you believe the recent DOW and ASX recovery can't continue without further correction.

I originally bought FAR as a long term investment way back in the days of FAROA. Has not done much yet as a long term investment and I lost patience, but I've done surprisingly well on the stock in the meantime as a trader.

Hopefully it will produce for long term holders as well one day.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 1 2008, 04:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

IRN is one of many stocks that was sold down in the recent market panic, and like many 'juniors' has not recovered. But in my view, IRN differs from many others.
It's partner (now with 62.5% and management of the Tampakan project is Xstrata. Tampakan is the largest undeveloped copper resource in the Xstrata portfolio.

Estimates were recently (Dec/07) upgraded by Xstrata to 2.2Bn tonnes, containing 12.8m tonnes of copper (using a .3% cut-off) and 15.2m oz of gold.

Plus IRN has about $108m in cash in the bank.
Market cap is around $274m.

The down sides are uncertainty over when the mine will be operational and a bit of 'Soverign risk'. There was a recent communist rebel attack on the site which caused some property damage. In claiming responsibility, the rebels said the did the damage at a time that would prevent any injury to workers. The Phillipine govt supports the development of the mine and says they will take whatever steps are necessary to ensure its security.

I guess the 'soverign' risk' thing could be holding things back. My assessment is that even allowing for that, the current SP is very low. I have little doubt that with Xstrata involved, the mine will be developed. This is one of the advantages of having a 90 lb Gorilla as a partner. I've held IRN since buying in during the last market correction in August 2007. Couldn't resist the price and picked up some more today.

Norm C

  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 18 2008, 09:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Rockyboy on Friday 18/01/08 09:18pm

Surprising how many of us 'old f@rts' there are lurking around this place. Having been an investor for over 30 years (full time for 5 years), I still like to play a bit and try to find the next 10 bagger with a small part of my portfolio. I only have a couple in the portfolio in that category at the moment. This is one of them. Hope we all have it right.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 18 2008, 08:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Rockyboy on Friday 18/01/08 08:35pm

Well Rockyboy, I still hold with an average buy price just over $2.00. I went close to buying some more today, but held off. Though I did buy a couple of other stocks; first buys since August last year, the last major correction.

ARR does seem to be oversold, but I still rate them as a speculative stock. If things go right, there is big upside in this one. But their management is not as convincing to me and certainly not as open as I'd like. I'm sure they are great scientists, engineers etc, but they have not fully convinced me on running a public company yet.

That said, I've reduced my ASX holdings form about 90% of a fairly large investment portfolio to about 30% and I still hold ARR. I must see something in them. Another bad day and they will probably hit my current 'I can't resist this any more' buy price.

Within a 2 or 3 years this stock either won't exist (or won't have done much) or it will be worth over $10.00. It is a risk, but being a holder, you can see which way I am leaning at the moment. I have less than 1% of my prtfolio value in it and would not go above 2 or 3% with current available information. But I'm over 50 and have as much interest in wealth preservation as I have in growth.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 18 2008, 04:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: kahuna1 on Friday 18/01/08 03:27pm

Interesting question Kahuna - Are we there yet?

This morning I started to hit the buy button on a few stocks for the first time in several months. Made a heap of buys during the last dip in August last year, but none since. Only sells, mostly in Sept to Nov. Have been just an observer since then.

Well today I made a pitch for a few of my favourites that I thought might have been oversold and had the best chance of quick recovery when sentiment changes. Only got a couple in the bag early and decided not to chase prices up.

I have no idea if we have hit the bottom yet, but I am happy enough that there are some pretty cheap stocks around if you are very selective. But I'm not yet ready for a general return to the market.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see another dead cat bounce or two before things stabilise. Still a very skittish market. I think there are plenty of buyers wanting to believe the worst is over, but those same people might drop their bundle very quickly without much of a shove.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Dec 6 2007, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Marsupial on Tuesday 04/12/07 02:00pm

Like you furry one, I've reduced my FAR holdings. Had almost 2 million at one stage (mostly from FAROA conversion). Sold about half at 15c to 18c quite a while back. Sold most of the rest over the past couple of months @ 14c.

Now have less than 5% of peak holdings left. Unless they go to 50c, the boat I could buy would be pretty small.

Although I've done pretty well on FAR, it has been a much slower and less profitable investment than I had thought when I first bought and not enough to hold my interest any more.

Good luck to those left in FAR. There are still some good prospects and opportunities, but (IMO) the business is being run to preserve the jobs, income and retirement plans of a couple of people. The wealth of FAR owners is secondary IMO. I posted on this view a couple of months ago.

I've moved my spec money on to others with (again IMO) better prospects for real gains.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 28 2007, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: henrietta on Friday 28/09/07 12:07pm

QUOTE
So why don't you sell and lock in the divvy plus profits? Cheers J   


Ex date isn't for another 2 weeks odd. Sale now would lock in the capital gain, but not the div.

I've held CIY for a while, but bought more a coupel of weeks ago as mentioned. I hold them in the 'high yield / low expectation of capital gain' section of my portfolio. Even at the current higher SP, their annual yield is over 10% fully franked.



  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 28 2007, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Interesting.
Just two weeks ago, this stock was trading at $3.65 to $3.75. I picked up a few more in that range to take advantage of the 30c per share fully franked dividend due to be paid soon. With the ex date approaching, the dividend strippers have moved in and pushed the price up to $4.26. Now I'm not complaining about that of course. But in effect they are paying over 50c to get a 30c div and franking credits.

For their sakes (and mine), I hope the SP stays above $4.00 ex div.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 28 2007, 11:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Pollyanna is alive and well it seems.

Well I reckon the markets (specifically the NYSE) have gone a bit nutty. Good news is interpreted as good for the market, which is not too unusual. But just about every bit of bad news is also being interpreted as good at the moment as well.

During this week, data released in US shows:
Durable good orders down
New housing starts down
Existing house sales down

Just a few months ago, this sort of information would have been interpreted as negative, or at least with considerable caution. Now it is being interpreted as increasing the likelihood of a further rate cut by the Fed - so it's actually good.

So good news is good for the market and bad news in good for the market.

This sort of thinking has seen the DOW rise to within a whisker of record levels. The ASX of course is already setting new records on almost a daily basis. How can today's US market be viewed with a similar positive view to that of 4 months or so ago? By taking a Pollyanna view of the world that's how. Good new is good and bad news is good if you read it the right way.

Looking at the ASX in isolation from the effect of the US, if you choose you can mount an argument that current levels are not unreasonable. But from where I sit, no such argument can be mounted for the current levels of the DOW. Consider the ASX in the context of it's global position and (at least in the short term) it's continued push to new records might also come into question.

It seems to me that that many investors are 'wishing' the markets to continue upward, but are not so sure that they can. They don't want to miss the upside of a continuing bull market, but are worried sh1tless about what happens if the market turns again.

The result is big daily swing in individual stocks, based almost entirely on rumour.

My biggest concern over the past 12 months has been the US market. That continues to be the case. What I can see worries me, but what is probably hidden worries me even more.

What does all this mean. Continued volatility for starters. The short term DOW direction is very much dependant on daily news on isolated incident and rumours. More broadly it is dependant on expectations of Fed action and ultimately on the action itself. In my view, the short term DOW direction has little to do with economic fundamentals and analysis of likely changes in the US and global economy. As an investor who principally relies on fundamental analysis and to some extent, value investing principals, this is all a serious worry.

Leaving aside some sizable investment in selected listed income securities, only 30% of my total portfolio is now in the ASX. 75% of that is in solid businesses paying franked dividends. The other 25% is in a few favourites of a more speculative nature. All but two (small exposure to each) have real profits or real and proven reserves. I have another 7.5% in overseas markets, but none in the US.

I don't see my overall stock market exposure increasing any time soon. But as I've revealed before, most of my investments are in the SMSF and I'm just 2 years away from tapping the fund - with no interest in returning to work to add to the fund that way. My mindset and risk appetite might be a bit different to others.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Sep 26 2007, 12:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: smallbear on Wednesday 26/09/07 12:14pm

smallbear, I too have been critical of FAR on this thread recently. But I have to say your post adds nothing to the thread. To put up such a critical post without anything to say except 'I told you and you didn't listen' is of little value. Even less, when your only suggestion is to follow your advice and buy your favourite stocks.

Some logical reasoning for your view on FAR would be helpful for the sake of informed, intelligent discussion. But in the end, what you post is up to you I guess.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 24 2007, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Some interesting figures due for release in the US this week. Some are:
September consumer confidence on Tue. Good chance it will be down.
August existing home sales also Tue. Good chance that's down too.
August new home sales on Thursday. Good chance that's down as well.
Friday sees, personal income and consumer spending.

Several others also during the week, including manufacturing index, GDP, etc.

Depending what these numbers produce, there will likely be renewed speculation about Fed action (despite the recent rate cut not having time to work it's way into the system). Fed does not meet again till 31 October.

All suggests a continuation of the recent roller coaster in US, with a likely flow on to the ASX.

I've taken the opportunity of the recent ASX increase to offload a few stocks. Was at 30% (excluding income securities) invested in ASX about 4 months ago. Increased to 55% on the dip. Now back to just over 30% again.

Options remain open, whether I stay out or jump back on board on future dips. I'm pretty confident they will come, but perhaps not as deep as the last one - but the market is a funny thing at times.

Norm C
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Sep 24 2007, 02:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: nifty49 on Monday 24/09/07 01:51pm

I'm never upset when I book a 30% gain in a few weeks Nifty. I suspect today's gains are on the back of BHP bullish longer term view of PON and increased exploration expenditure to increase reserves.

Further dips and buyinig opportunities will arise over the next couple of months. If not in IGO, then elsewhere.

Well done and good luck to those who have hung on. Some of course need the recent and possibly further rises to get back to earlier buy prices.
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 24 2007, 08:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

QUOTE (doctorj @ Sunday 23/09/07 10:01pm)

Doc, I agree that Senegal is the great hope for a company maker. But of course the skeptic in me says it is just the latest in a long line of 'company makers' for FAR over many years.
But it has real potential and is the main reason I continue to hold FAR.

BUT, with $12 million in the bank and over $5 million in debt, we (current shareholders) will never see the full benefit of the 30% interest FAR has. If this area ever goes to production, FAR will need to one of the following:

1. A major farm in with resulting reduction in interest to fund development.

2. A very big capital raising (with resulting dilution for current holders). Or a combination of 1 and 2.

3. A buy out of FAR by Hunt, or possibly another major.

I suspect ME is banking on Senegal being the retirement plan he has been searching for, for many years. Wouldn't be surprised if Option 3 is his preferred outcome. It also might provide the best, earliest and most certain outcome for FAR shareholders.

Despite the limitations mentioned above, IF Senegal is as big as many hope for (unfortunately wishing does not make it so), FAR shareholders who hang on will do well. Oh and by the way, ME and a small number of others at FAR will become very wealthy, mostly on the back of options granted over the years. I won't begrudge them that, if my share is big enough.

Lot of time and water to flow under the bridge before any of this is possible though. So back to dreaming and being a FAR skeptic for me.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 23 2007, 02:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Guys, I'd have to say I'm somewhat skeptical on this company. I've been a FAR holder for about 3 years and at one time had close to 2 mil shares (mostly acquired via conversion of the FAROA options).

Still have a sizable holding, but have sold down to less than 50% of my peak. Fortunately did most of this @18c and a few @17c in May and July last year.

Yes there is potential for this stock to get moving with some good drill results and I sure hope it happens.

But I can't help but think that the main 'raison d'etre' for FAR is the continued employment of Michael Evans on a healthy (but admittedly not outlandish) salary. Very small holdings in a large number of prospects is never likely to make a fortune for we shareholders. But is nice and safe.

FAR floated on the ASX in 1985. Michael Evans was the founding CEO and Chairman and remains there 22 years later. That's a long time to keep an explorer in exploration mode without a major shift to production or selling out to a producer at a healthy price. Also a very long time for a CEO or Chairman to remain in place without major financial success.

Although the shares have been through some highs and lows, I'm glad I didn't buy in 1985 and hold till now!!

A skeptical view I know and already admitted to that.

One good thing is that a lot of the executive options are currently a long way off the money. Adds a bit of incentive.

Well. despite all this I still hold a reasonable number of FAR FPOs. How long for? Well I'm in no rush to sell, but no longer regard myself as a long term holder either.
Norm C

  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 21 2007, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: normc on Tuesday 04/09/07 10:02am

Well despite my previous post (in for the long haul), I bailed today to book a 14% profit. Couldn't resist locking in the gains over a short time and suspect there might be opportunities to re-enter at a lower price over the next few months with continued volatility.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 21 2007, 12:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Call me chicken, but I took my 30% gain (plus Div) over 4 weeks and sold my IGO today.
As they say, nobody ever went broke taking a profit.
Hope to get chance to get back in at another bargain price over the next few months as market volatility continues.
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 20 2007, 04:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

A short but very sweet announcement from CBH today on assay results SP up over 8% on the back of it. Sweet.
It will take time (and patience from investors), but CBH is on the way to being a significant base metal producer I think.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 18 2007, 09:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

This is one I bought on it's reserves and put in the bottom draw of the SMSF. Price likely to bounce around a fair bit on rumours. Also on pull backs it's likely to get hit a bit harder as it's a long way off positive cash flow.
Management might be a touch naive, but I think they are getting a lot right. Getting good quality consultnats and drillers. Getting big money (CS) involved early.

Unlike oil, gas prices in Australia are well below world standards, particularly USA. Don't think that can hold for a long time.
Providing their reserves get to the level they are after (600PJ P2 from memory) and I see no reason why not, the way they are going this one should fly some day. Just don't expect it to be tomorrow.

At the moment I'm prepared to hold medium term and accumulate on dips. I don't mind the low SP. In fact I want it lower for a while as it is currently a touch above my accumulate price.

By the way check out the MHA web site and read through their customer list.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 18 2007, 04:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

QUOTE (Danville @ Tuesday 18/09/07 03:54pm)

UK has insurance on deposits, but less than the US. Some cut and paste info here:

'The answer is that the UK doesn’t insure bank deposits the way the US does. To begin with, the total amount covered by deposit insurance is much lower than the US, which insures up to $100,000 in deposits. Only thirty-five thousand pounds is covered by insurance for depositors in the UK.

More importantly, the UK employs an insurance practice called “co-insurance” which shifts part of the risk to depositors. After the first two-thousand pounds of savings, only 90% of each persons total claim on a failed bank is covered by insurance'
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Sep 18 2007, 03:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: MissAdventure on Tuesday 18/09/07 02:25pm

Just read this in an FN Arena update. Same as you I guess MissA.

A very big and unexpected move. Excellent news for market stability. And great news for nervous UK depositors.

But I think it is a bit premature to call the crisis over. Need to see some more action from the US first I believe.

But it is very good and unexpected news.

Just shows how nervous governments are about the flow on from this nonsense, despite them all saying it it nothing more than a hill of beans.

Norm C
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Sep 17 2007, 10:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: vegemite on Monday 17/09/07 08:37pm

A fair assessment I think, except no mention of Broken Hill which is now expected to come on line before Panorama. Notwithstanding that, without base metal price changes, I think they are right in it being 2008 before there is 'excitement' on this stock.

A matter of investment strategy whether one waits, or uses the time to accumulate on dips.
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 15 2007, 04:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: theking on Saturday 15/09/07 02:42pm

The excise on bio fuels in 2015 is only minor part of the story I thought. Not offering a view on the story, but thought it was a worthwhile attachment to a thread like NFL for it's macro look at the bio fuels issue. For what it's worth, I expect to be alive well after 2015 and I'm older than most posters on this site I suspect.

On a further positive note from QLD, Brisbane City Council recently announced an extension and expansion of their biodiesel trial in Brisbane busses. The small trial in a couple of busses had proved positive so has been expanded to about 20 busses I think from memory.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 15 2007, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

On OECD report casts doubt on the sustainability of bio fuels due to economic, social and environmental factors.
It suggests that it may be efficient in the tropics (Brazil, SE Asia, Australia), but even there, it questions the environmental impact.

Read a story on the report here. If link does not work, you might have to subscribe (which is free). Australian Investment Review (AIR).

http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=v...d=6792&setSub=1
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 14 2007, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: ozybuddy on Thursday 13/09/07 05:31pm

MasteR has it exactly right. I've had FUN for quite a while. Bought as a growth stock. Sold half my holding a while back when growth seemed to be stalling, but kept the balance for yield. At current SP and maintaining current dividends (which should not be difficult) yield is around 5.6% FF. So in a balanced portfolio with some emphasis on franked dividends, it has a place (my SMSF for example).
But if you are focussed on a growth portfolio, on current evidence there are probably better opportunities elsewhere.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 12 2007, 05:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Don't think ARR was ever going to be an overnight success. Price was chased up earlier in the year with hype around laser TV and it's Indian contracts. Laser TV was always going to take a while and of course ARR is not the only game in town. Indian contracts seem sound, but due to changed and increased customer requirements, it is taking longer to get to the higher profit stuff.

I had watched for a while, but price was too high for me earlier in the year. Bought in at just over $2.00 with a medium term (1 to 3 year) time frame in mind. Still happy with that, and depending on portfolio balance might pick up some more on any dips well below $2.00, say $1.70 to $1.80??

Don't be surprised if that opportunity arises if there is no positive release from the company over the next few weeks.

Despite the SP weakness (which after all gave me the opportunity to get in), I think the fundamentals on ARR are still sound. Not without it's risks though.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 12 2007, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: theking on Wednesday 12/09/07 08:59am

'Now this sudden rise in oil prices does this make Bio-D cheaper so our product is back in BIZ.. '

Not without production and with high input prices.

Of course higher POO will be a big positive for NFL, but they can only capitalise on it if they can get production going at full capacity (including Singapore - the big one) and control input prices.

Its not over yet for NFL. But a turn around will take time, good management and some luck.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 11 2007, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: theking on Tuesday 11/09/07 12:46pm

Hi King. If by your post you mean you are averaging down just to reduce the average price you have paid per share, BEWARE. A dangerous strategy in my view.

Check out this link for a recent Share Scene discussion on averaging down. The most relevant part to you is a post by Datum on 6/9/07. It is in part, a copy and past from another forum where someone is saying he first bought into NFL at $1.50 at the float. Has continually bought on the way down and now has $300,000 in the stock. If the company does not succeed he says he will lose the house. He doesn't say what his average buy price is, but I suspect the stock has to go up at least 200% just to break even for him.

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=10272

Now that is an extreme and crazy example of averaging down.

Not saying you should not buy NFL. That's entirely a decision for you. But if your principal reason for buying is to average down, I'd counsel against it.

Now if NFL can ultimately succeed (they might, but they have some serious issues to overcome first), 29 cents might just be the buy of your life. But don't bet the house on it.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 10 2007, 01:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: kahuna1 on Sunday 09/09/07 10:16pm

The concepts are just so easy aren't they. I recall a line from a Marx Brothers movie (at least I think that's where I heard it). Something like:

'Making money on the stock market is easy. Buy when prices are down. Sell when prices are up. And if the price isn't going to go up, don't buy in the first place'.

Easy isn't it. I wish.

As you possibly recall Kahuna, like you I've been buying quality stocks on major dips for a while now. It is surprising the number of quality (IMO) stocks with proven reserves, revenue, profitability, cash flow or contracts, with strong proven management that have (again IMO) been oversold. It is just a matter of spending the time (lots of it) to sort your way through the rubbish to find the pearls.

Rather than trading though, I've been mainly accumulating. Just did a count of my trades in the past 6 weeks. 29 buys and 7 sells (not all different companies of course). That's a lot of activity for me. Most of the buys were in that window when the XAO was below 6,000, but not all. Have made two buys today and have other orders in.

I've recently taken on a 'value trader' approach, which seems to be what you are suggesting Kahuna. Do the research, establish a price you are prepared to pay, which accounts for your assessment of fair value with a substantial market risk discount, then wait for the market to meet your price.

Without another panic sell off, the opportunity to pick up top 20 (or even top 50) stocks at a bargain might be passed, but there are plenty of opportunities left below that for those with the patience to do the research, then wait for the market to come to you, rather than chasing the market up.

I'm steering clear of specs (well MEL is a spec I suppose and I've bought it - but that's the only one). Lots of babies have been thrown out with the bath water recently with quality smaller companies (not all miners - some industrials, techs etc also) being dumped.

I've even bought some zinc and nickel miners that I think have been sold well below where my assessment of value should be - even with further short term risk to these metal prices.

Interesting how just 3 or 4 months ago, I was one of the bears of this thread. Now I guess I'm a bull (though a selective and cautious one).

Still nervous about the USA, but that's a given in any circumstance. I'm steering clear of stocks with too much direct exposure to US economy. There is enough momentum in internal growth in Asia now I think, to support a continuation of the resource boom. Even with some slowing of growth, perhaps resulting from reduced US demand for Asian products, there is enough momentum to keep things ticking over sufficiently, even if at a slightly reduced rate. Also no sign of a slow down in our own economy and not a big risk of a negative reaction to 'fear' of a change of government at the upcoming election.

US market is so nutty, that if the Fed drops rates, we could well see a 2% or more one day gain. No one can see beyond the next 24 hours over there at the moment it seems. Over reaction to any bit of news, positive or negative seems to be the order of the day. I'm at least trying to look a bit beyond that.

Important that everyone formulates there own strategy and market assessment; don't just follow someone else. In the end, one of my simple measures of confidence in my actions is how well I sleep. If I'm losing sleep over my market exposure, it is time for a reassessment. Currently I'm sleeping fine. Blissfully unaware perhaps????


  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Sep 10 2007, 11:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: normc on Monday 03/09/07 02:01pm

Couldn't resist and picked up some more on the dip today @$2.01.
Still speculative, but at around $2.00 this stock has to be good buying, given the projected cash flow from the deals in India alone.
As always, only time will tell.
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 7 2007, 03:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Board Room radio interview of Dr John Hewson, Chairman. Good to finally see him make a public statement.
http://www.brr.com.au/NFL/natural-fuel-limited-

Doesn't say a lot that is new, but he is suggesting that apart from the changes in tax in USA, and the management change, it is largely business as usual. He plays down the feed stock price issue as one that can be managed in the longer term. Says they are not concerned with short term feed stock prices or short term share price as they have a medium term view to build a substantial international business.

They have $114m in the bank and $97m in debt ($84m of it long term). Not sure how much more there is to spend on the Singapore plant which is due to be commissioned in 1st Qtr 2008. Depending on the answer to this, they probably have enough cash for the moment. If not and they have to do a capital raising at such a low share price, it will really stuff the equity of current shareholders. Apart from implementation risk in Singapore and getting Darwin sorted to generate some reliable cash flow, this (equity dilution) seems to be a real risk.

Next 12 months will probably tell whether this company succeeds or fails.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 5 2007, 11:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: mulgoaman on Wednesday 05/09/07 09:50pm

Hope you make some serious money on your CST shares MM. If so, some of us here will be very happy indeed.
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 5 2007, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: diana on Wednesday 05/09/07 05:10pm

Some years ago, we had a friend who held physical gold. He put it in a big thick sock and used it as a door stop. He figured the last thing someone would pinch is his door stop. The old idea of hiding something in plain view.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Sep 5 2007, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Wouldn't be surprised if someone from CST has been reading (or been briefed on) this thread and the calls for more information on marketing and telling the story in a positive light if it is appropriate to do so.

My first reading of the newsletter was that is was amied at some of the concerns raised recently on this thread. Perhaps just a coincidence and luck of timing, but........

In any case, the information was the best presented and most positive we have seen I believe. Not only did we like it, but many others as well.

Bought some more @ $2.42 during the dip, given my re-rating of the stock (for own purposes) from spec to growth. Certainly happy with that decision now. Well I was happy before of course, or I would not have bought more, but you know what I mean.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 4 2007, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Bought PBL @ $16.65 during the recent slump. Fortunately I'd converted to cash a bit over the previous few months and was able to rebalance the portfolio a bit on the way back in. It's in the SMSF, so if things go right, I'm in for the long haul.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 3 2007, 02:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: hungry on Monday 03/09/07 01:37pm

Hi Hungry. That $8.80 'valuation' you refer to was a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation by Paterson Securities. I have not seen their DCF model, so not sure of the assumptions they have used or the time line. But I note is a more recent report that the change in the supply agreement with BSNL, although extending the time to profitability, is supposed to increase profits in subsequent years. Based on a profit of $31.3M for 2008 and $60M for 2009, Paterson's DCF valuation is now $9.15. Don't know where they get those profit numbers from though. Suspect they might be a bit rubbery.

If you are familiar with DCF models, you will know that minor adjustments in assumptions can create major valuation swings. Without bothering to try to model it, missing the two profit forecasts (by Patersons) by just 20%, could well cut the valuation in half, perhaps more. DCF is a good way to build up a potential value on companies like ARR, with no history of profit to use for conventional valuation. But I'd never buy on the basis on a DCF valuation only, particularly someone else's! When I use DCF, I use very conservative numbers. Patersons seem to be at the other end of the scale.

As you say, you have bought on the basis of fundamentals. As have I. Hope we have it right. Be nice is Patersons have it right too. biggrin.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 3 2007, 11:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Been watching ARR for a little while trying to work it out enough to determine a time to buy. By my conventional theory, it is still a bit early, but I bit the bullet this morning and bought in anyway.
Bought with a longer term view. I suspect it will be a year at least before this one get going, but I have time. Shares are in the SMSF.

Seems to be some smart people involved (though possibly not all that market savvy).
They seem to have investors lining up to put money in whenever they need to raise capital. Hopefully there will be less need for that in the future.

Only Paterson's covers them and they can hardly be considered independent. But they seem to have a very positive view of the company.

Market was clearly not impressed with the company not meeting it's forecasts break even point and particularly with the way it was communicated (or not). But that seems to be more a timing issue due to (ultimately positive) changes in customer needs.

Only time will tell.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 3 2007, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Thought I should get myself onto this thread since I was a buyer during the recent price slump. After just a couple of weeks, a 21% gain in SP plus the div makes me a very happy IGO owner.
Had this stock on my watch list for a little while waiting for the right time to buy. Aren't market corrections great! Well sometimes they are.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 30 2007, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: kahuna1 on Thursday 30/08/07 08:02pm

While I understand the sentiment of the story, it is a bit worrying in the current environment. If it is a deliberate Fed 'leak', it is staggering. Earlier, they as much as said the rate would be cut. Certainly the market interpreted the previous statement that way, based on past statements and action.

This seems to be inviting turmoil. Someone seems to be playing games. Wonder if it is a personal or 'official' agenda?

Sometimes, you can divorce market action from the 'real' economy. I think with the number of issues in the US at the moment, that is not possible.

Interesting to see which way this one plays out.

Norm C
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 30 2007, 03:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Zeus on Thursday 30/08/07 02:41pm

Zeus are you sure these were bought direct from TIM. I thought perhaps they were traded on a secondary market. They are 2002 lots.
I have no info on this, just an assumption that they came from a past investor who needed to get out.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 30 2007, 01:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: kahuna1 on Thursday 30/08/07 12:09pm

K1, I think you have come across to the way of thinking I've posted on this thread recently. Doesn't make you right though. We might both be nuts, along with a few others.

I totally agree with buying quality stocks on dips at the moment. IGO up 18% (plus a dividend) in the two weeks from when I bought it is a good example. PBL up 7%. FGL up 12%, MLE up 7% (even with a down day today). Just a few of a larger number, most of which have small gains. Only ones I've picked up recently to go down are TAH (down 3% on horse flu - short term), IRN (down slightly, but not a worry) and SIP (down 10% - got that one wrong). All these recent buys are intended as longer term holds, so tracking SP change over past couple of weeks is for interest only.

Nothing to say these won't all go down on future dips, but in my view they (and many others) are quality stocks bought at a good price.

I was very tempted to sell IGO today to lock in the quick gains. Then I looked at my notes on why I bought it. Unless I was certain to buy it back even cheaper in the future, I'd be nuts to abandon my investment strategy and sell for a few thousand in early gains. My view anyway.

Lots of dips to come I suspect, so there is time. Just don't be upset that you don't pick the bottom. Just as hard as picking the top.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the US seriously down again, then make a good rebound when the FED cuts rates. No reason why this should happen as a rate cut is fully expected, but the is no logic in this market at the moment. Might be a trading opportunity for some, but I'll stick to my knitting I think.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 29 2007, 08:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: nfr on Wednesday 29/08/07 08:08pm

nfr, I see where you are coming from until you get to the prediction stage. I'm not into bold predictions; which are largely fortune telling. I'm more into analysis to determine likely trends, which is hard enough in itself. But putting that difference aside, I think you make some good points. The US authorities with oversight have two choices:
1. They knowingly allowed this 'fraud' to be perpetuated, or
2. They are incompetent and didn't have a clue what was happening.

Either way it is scary.

The reputation of some of the rating agencies is (or should be) in tatters.

I don't take anything out of the US on face value these days. But there is so much information published (much of it crap), it is a real challenge to do personal analysis that gives confidence. Two months ago, most US based (and Australian for that matter)analysis was super bullish. Now everything from the US is doom and gloom. Little has changed except that some stuff is more visible. Stuff that highly paid analysts should have at least suspected before. I think some (including authorities) suspected or knew, but thought if they ignored it, it would go away. Finding a way through this nonsense is not easy.

That's why I fully understand why some smart people have decided to stand aside for a while. I have not done so, and on the major recent dips, I've been a buyer, but mostly of solid stocks. But I was a seller from 6 months ago until about 6 weeks ago. That's why I have a bit of cash available at the moment.

But I've put more time into research in the past 6 or 8 weeks than I have at any time for a couple of years. I'm still sleeping well, so not too concerned. Once that changes, I'll challenge my current views a bit more.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 29 2007, 12:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: onefineday on Wednesday 29/08/07 12:28pm

OFD, in terms of trading you are absolutely right. But CST has always been a poor trading stock due to low liquidity. So no change there.
For investors, it is a different story, but up to individuals to interpret.
CST came down to my accumulate price today and I picked up some more @ $2.41. Reasonable buying I believe for someone with a longer term view.
Short term view - entirely different.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 28 2007, 09:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Interesting and fascinating times. Way way back in the dark ages. 8th August 2007 to be exact, I posted this as part of a response on this thread:

QUOTE 'Growth in China has been largely funded by exports of manufactured goods to developed countries. A large part of the imports to those countries have been funded by debt. Australia's Private Debt to GDP ratio is now over 150% and the chart is almost vertical. At the current rate, it will be over 200% in a couple of years. US Household Debt to GDP is on a similar rise.

This has all been driven by low interest rates and very easy credit. Credit so easy, that about US$1.3 trillion was loaned to US home buyers who by any sensible assessment, were never going to repay the loans. Trillions more were loaned against increased home equity, with values distorted by the demand created by easy credit. Well easy credit is no longer quite as easy.

Many of the people who were never going to repay their loans have started defaulting and many more will follow. Many borrowers (about another US$1 trillion worth) who until about now were on Honeymoon interest rates are about to go to market rates. This is a new phenomenon in the US where traditionally most mortgages were at fixed rates. Many of the 'middle Americans' who had borrowed against increased equity to fund lifestyle now find they have negative equity in their home. .

This must lead to reduced spending in the US and lower demand for Chinese (and other) imports. How much lower; who knows - certainly not me, but lower all the same.'UNQUOTE

At that time, (during one of the 'dead cat bounces') most who commented thought I was being pessimistic and that we had a short term correction only.

Three weeks can be a looooooong time in this business.

I'm still scared sh1tless about the US economy and it's effect on the rest of the world. Many European and Asian economies are highly Dependant on exports to the US. We are Dependant on raw material exports to many (mostly Asian) suppliers to the US.

So far, apart from the writings of many doom and gloom merchants from the US, I'm skeptical about a short term drop to recession, but these things have a way of becoming self fulfilling prophesies. Also, the degree to which the mortgage and home equity crisis will effect new home building, employment and retail spending is not yet fully evident. Right now I see reduced growth and continued market volatility, but not recession. But given that 3 weeks is an eternity in the current market and that informed independent, non alarmist views out of the US are scarce, I may change my mind at any time.

I find myself in an interesting position. Three weeks ago, I was (compared to others on this thread) seeing more negative than positive, but still many opportunities for those prepared to do the research and take their chances.

I haven't changed my view a great deal, but I now find myself overtaken, so that my view now seems fairly positive, compared to others on this thread and in the media. One thing I know from long experience is that just as bull markets have corrections, bear markets have rallies. Have we recently been seeing rallies in the early stages of a bear market, or is this still a correction in a bull market. Currently I think it is more like volatility in a side ways market, after a necessary correction, but who really knows?

My fear of course is that most commentators have now taken on a negative bias. A couple of months ago any negative news was simply an aberration and the smallest positive news was affirmation of the continued bull run. Now just a short time later, the position is exactly reversed.

One of the great values to me of this site (this thread in particular) is reading and sometimes testing my ideas against others. When I find myself with a different view to others, particularly those whose posts I have come to respect, it pushes me to do more research and test my ideas further. Guess that sets my agenda for the next few days.



  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 28 2007, 05:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: kahuna1 on Tuesday 28/08/07 04:28pm

Well, I'm still in. As I've stated before, I've used the recent slump to restructure the portfolio and (in my view) improve it's quality for current market conditions. Now have about 53% of my ASX holdings in (again in my view) solid yield stocks. With fundamentals remaining sound, company profits generally meeting expectations, I'm not too concerned about short term market fluctuations. More concerned about the broader economy and despite some of the doom being suggested in the USA, I'm happy enough at the moment. The balance is 37% growth stocks and 10% specs. Keeping a much closer eye on these, but OK for the moment.

You may be right Kahuna with respect to a late week dip led by the US.
That in itself is not a big concern. Direction after that is the issue. I understand your concern. It is tough enough to look ahead one day at a time at the moment, let alone a week. That's why I'm trying to focus 6 months out - but that's even tougher.

Lucky it's only money.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 28 2007, 04:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: david_j_c on Tuesday 28/08/07 03:32pm

David, I've commented a couple of times recently that I think there is plenty of time. Having said that, I currently have a buy order in at a price a little below todays price, simply to take advantage of the current SP slump, if it happens to dip further.

Apart from the discussions recently on valuing CST against projected future earnings, there is another way to look at this. Given that CST's current SP is based on future earnings (ie it has no past earnings, and little assets - other than IP), at what point is the current share price justified on conventional FA measures.

The simplest view would be, what profit is required to justify a modest (but fair) PE for a growth company. Say a PE of 20 or 30. Simple maths says that to justify a SP of $2.50, we need a profit of 12.5 cps ($12.5m approx) for a PE of 20 and 8.33 cps ($8.3m approx) for a PE of 30.

Now we come back to the previous discussion about when will we achieve those sorts of profits. Well, not in 2008 and in my view not in 2009 (though the lower end of $8m is an outside chance). In my view, the more certain time frame is 2010.

But as stated before, once there are clear signs of sustainable success, the SP will lead these conventional measures for a period of time. That's where personal judgement comes in and makes the market so interesting.

Of course we all want to buy shares at the cheapest price possible, but if CST ends up producing the profit and SP often discussed on this forum at some time in the future, it hardly matters for a long term investor whether you paid $2.40 or $3.40 for the initial shares. If you have a shorter term view, where you buy in that range becomes more important.

Another point is how you view the stock. To explain - I catergorise my investments in a number of ways. One high level way is that I have 4 stock groups in my portfolio, with limits on each group and stocks within that group. The groups are:
Speculative
Growth
Yield
Income Securities (hybrids, corporate bonds etc)

Until very recently, I had CST in the Speculative group. I trade stocks in this group, (though I have never traded CST), but do not accumulate. I have recently moved CST to the Growth group (indicating my increased confidence in the company's future). I rarely trade stocks in the Growth group, but I do accumulate when I assess the value justifies it.

On my normal 'value investing' assessment, CST does not warrant accumulation at the moment, but my assessment method is flexible enough to allow 'softer' valuation methods to be used. As a result I'm currently prepared to accumulate CST if my buy price is low enough. To accumulate at a price above today's price, I'd need more hard data, like maintaining or increasing sales growth rates, increasing positive CF and a move to profitability.

Which takes us back to your point. You want more hard data before you accumulate. Can't argue with that. But perhaps there is a price at which you are prepared to accumulate without hard data. Only you can make that decision and select the appropriate price. The market will then determine if you are able to buy at your selected price.

A bit of prattle I know, but it might help you in your decision making.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 28 2007, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Interesting announcement today refuting a very negative story in today's. Link to ASX CIY announcements. Australian.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/Company...e=ciy#headlines

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 27 2007, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

QUOTE (Puzzled @ Monday 27/08/07 05:07pm)

Hi Puzzled.
You may well be right on Forrests numbers being blown away on the upside, but in making decisions on investment this early in a company like CSTs development, I'm always VERY conservative. I acknowledge that the risk is on the upside. That's why I still hold CST despite it being the worst performing stock in my portfolio over the past 2 years.

BUT
Changing the year one net profit from $2m (my assumption) to $4m (Forrest's assumption) changes the current value in the DCF by just 1 cent!! What gives the value is the future years with 100% + profit increases year on year. The key is how long can this be maintained and how big the '+' is. I've assumed 100% for 3 years (after 2008) then continued growth, but at lower rates. Conservative I know, but already covered that. As I said in my post, just adding 5 percentage points to each years growth rate (ie 105% for years 2009 to 2011, then 5% more than my assumptions for future years, makes a big difference. But my assumptions are my assumptions.

To the 2008 profit. Using a simple formula.
Revenue from goods sold increased by 102%.
2007 revenue $10.65m increase by 102% 2008 revenue will be $21.5m
COGS is 49.2%. Assume it increases by CPI (3%)
49.2% of $21.5 is $10.58m increase by 3% and 2008 COGS will be $10.9m
2008 Gross Profit $10.6m

Other costs for 2007 were $8.42m. Now to do a budget, we really need to know the running rate of these costs; that is what were they for the final 8 weeks or so, then adjust for any one offs and expected changes. I don't have this info, but in my experience I'd expect these costs to rise by 20% to 30% at least given the growth rate of the company. I'll be generous and use the lower end of my range (20%), but I expect it to be more.
At a 20% increase, other cost for 2008 will be ($10.1m)
NET PROFIT from operations will therefore be $0.5m
Add income from interest. They have $12.15m in the bank. Don't know about CAPEX needs, but lets assume none and that cash in matches cash out close enough, so cash at bank stays about the same. Assume 6% interest and income is $.73m which is the same as 2007. Interest Income $0.73m
NET PROFIT FOR 2008 $1.23m

My assumed profit of $2m is almost 63% higher than this calculated amount.
Put another way, revenue will need to be at least $1.6m higher than assumed to reach this profit. 2008 Revenue will therefore need to be at least $23.1m, an increase of 117% over the 2007 number.

Now, you and others may well say this is too conservative and I have it wrong. But one thing history shows us is that ON aVERAGE, every prediction made about CST growth on this thread over the past 3 years has been way too optimistic. In any case, if we have a different view, that's fine. I've now explained the basis of my view.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 27 2007, 03:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: forrestgump on Saturday 25/08/07 08:04am

Forrest, I had a quick look and a play with your DCF model. Interesting as the last time I did this was about 2 years ago. I think we discussed our views on this thread at the time.

Although you say you are being very conservative, I must say I differ. I think your first 2 years overstate likely profit. I suspect profit next year (2008) will be less than your $4 million. I used $2 million, but just numbers.

I accept a doubling of profit year on year for 3 to 5 years or so after that (I used 3), but then a fall off in % growth rates. I'd forecast no dividend till 2010 and a lower pay out at the start than your assumed 70%. Assuming a one product company, we could get to 70% payout ratio or more by about 2012, but I would think the actual number will be lower as they retain profit to fund R&D and business development for new products, but I guess our analysis (for what it's worth) needs to stick to the current product.

FWIW, I come up with a current value of around $6.40 using the 10 year model at a discount of 10%. Interesting, if I increase the year on year profit growth by just 5 percentage points per year from my current assumptions, my current valuation goes to $8.49. Shows how fluid these models are and how little difference there is in our assumptions.
We can plug any numbers we want to give any outcome we seek. This is the danger of these models. Many analysts do just that; play until the model supports their preconceived idea. It is an interesting exercise all the same.

The 10% discount rate is more aligned to a standard average cost of capital DCF model than an investor's expected returns. If I was to say (as you have), that to compensate me for risk, along with the poor returns over the years I've already held the stock, I'd want an average return of at least 20% going forward. This gives a current value of $3.11.

As you say, most of the gains are stacked at the tail end - after 2012. This does not mean the SP gains will wait till then. SP reflects expected future value, not current value. So if, as we both assume, CST goes through a period of 100% year on year profit gains, by year 2 or 3 of that period, we should expect a PE of over 20; perhaps over 30 or 40 for a short period. If CST has high growth (100% +) when it has EPS of $0.40, a PE of 30 would give a SP of $12. At a PE of 40 the SP would be $16.00. Even at a conservative (for a high growth company) PE of 20, the SP would be $8.00. Now what year will we hit $0.40 EPS and will we expect 100% + growth for another year or two after that? Who knows, but my model does not get us there until around 2013.

What does all this mean. Well I think it means that on current and short term future (say less than 2 years) results and expectations, the current and recent share price of around $2.40 to $3.20 is not too far off the mark. Some may argue that it is 20% undervalued but, so what. It is not until you bring in assumptions about real profits and 100% + growth for a few years that you can start to sustain the sorts of valuations above. For current investors, that means patience. For future investors, that means time is on their side. Sounds similar to something I posted a few weeks ago during another discussion on this thread.
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 27 2007, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Hi guys,
Well two weeks can sometimes be a long time. Just got back from two weeks in Japan. Two weeks ago, the market was very uncertain - well, I was uncertain about it anyway.

Two weeks later there is still uncertainty, but with strong fundamentals, mostly very good results so far through the reporting season, Fed action on interest rates to help offset a credit crunch, a more certain outlook on commodities, a very bullish view from BHP etc etc, the world looks a much better place.

I'd mentioned on this thread a couple of months ago that I was predominantly a seller at the time due to a few developing concerns. I converted a bit more to cash in the few weeks after the sub prime issue first hit the news on the view that these things are always bigger than first reported.

Two to three weeks ago though, I figured that taking a longer term view, some stocks had already been oversold and were likely to drop further if there was more bad news out of the USA. I made a few buys, then I did something unusual for me. I placed some buy orders and walked away for two weeks. All bids were 10 to 15% below current market and I figured I'd be happy to get them at that price, even if the market went lower for a while.
I picked up IGO, IRN, CBH and NMS (all stocks I believe were excellent buying at the price and still are at slightly higher prices - IMO) while I was away, none at the bottom, but all pretty close.
If I'd been around when the market slipped towards it's recent bottom I might have been tempted to cancel the orders, either in fear or with a view I might get them for even cheaper a bit later. Sometimes it is good to just back your judgment and close your eyes to the noise around you.

It's still a time for caution, but the recent activity has given an opportunity for some portfolio risk and quality analysis - just what has been happening at the big end of town.

A few weeks ago some were saying 'be afraid'. I remember Kahuna saying it and I agreed at the time. Now I'd say 'be cautious but not afraid' as on the current view, there is no need for general fear. Fear often causes indecision when I think the current opportunities need clear thinking and decisiveness.
Norm C

  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 10 2007, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: hungry on Friday 10/08/07 02:54pm

Although I'm not much into TA hungry, I see your reasoning.

These and a few other similar companies have been added to my SMSF during the current slump.
I've focussed on companies with plenty of cash in the bank, proven reserves, proven management and a history of reliable production and profitability.

Amazing how many of them have been sold off as much as the 'penny dreadfulls' with nothing more than big ideas.

I expect to hold these for a couple of years - but plans are always subject to change.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 10 2007, 03:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Well, I've got to say I'm staggered by the SP of NMSO today. Some traders getting the hell out of Dodge by the look of things.
NMS lowest price $0.885. This should make the lowest price of NMSO (in a sensible market) around $0.71. Well, so far they have got down as low as $0.625 (last trade .64).

Hadn't planned to buy more, but I couldn't resist and dived in for some more at .63. Only time will tell if it was a good move.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 10 2007, 12:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Well, I bought some of these recently @.60. Just couldn't resist topping up on today's drop.
With a market cap (today's SP) of $460M. A recently announced annual profit of $55m. That's a PE of about 8.5 by my calculation.

Increased production planned at current mine and others coming on stream in 2008 and 2009, it was not a hard decision.
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 9 2007, 10:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: hbswrx on Thursday 09/08/07 09:47pm

Agreed, but the leverage is not big now given the high price of the option compared to the exercise price.
I initially had only options also, but sold some for .87 just before the slump. Managed to buy FPOs for .88 during the week, which wasn't a bad swap.

By rights, the options should cost about 16 cents less than the FPO for the two to be evenly priced at the moment. The options are regularly available at 20 or more below the FPOs, so are often a better entry method anyway. I originally bought a fair few NMSO @ 9.2 cents when NMS was over 30 cents. That was good leverage and a good discount to to the FPO. That opportunity is long past now though and never to be repeated.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 9 2007, 08:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: hbswrx on Thursday 09/08/07 08:39pm

If 18.7m is right, there will be a bit under 7% dilution when all options are exercised. That's my maths anyway.

Not a big deal in the overall scheme of things.

I was just looking to estimate the amount of 'overhang' and dilution the options will have when exercise is due. Between the low exercise price ( not a lot of people will have to sell shares in the lead up to exercise to raise the cash to exercise the balance) and relatively low number of options (18.7m NMSO v 200m FPO), it is not a big issue.

Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 9 2007, 08:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: kahuna1 on Thursday 09/08/07 06:28pm

Kahuna, I think you are absolutely right. If you are game and have the time, trade the swings. There are likely to be plenty over the next couple of weeks or more.

Otherwise, take your time. Today was up, but there will be down days ahead to get in at better prices.

As it turns out I'll be largely out of circulation for a couple of weeks. Off to Japan to visit daughter.

Might have one more good look tomorrow, depending on what the DOW delivers. Then I'll join you under that rock for a couple of weeks.

Most important, don't get yourself into a position where you can't sleep at night. Might be a bit late for some though.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 9 2007, 11:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Blues on Thursday 09/08/07 11:11am

Thanks Blues. Just looking at the dilutive effect on conversion, which is not too bad @18.7m NMSO.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 9 2007, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Does anyone know off hand how many NMS options (NMSO) are on issue?
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 8 2007, 04:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: kahuna1 on Wednesday 08/08/07 12:54pm

Kahuna, I think we are on the same sheet of music, just interpreting the music a little differently.
I expect the market to remain strong, that's why I'm looking to buy. Just not rushing as my view is there is time and opportunities ahead - no need to repeat my reasoning.

My recent and current buy focus is more on the well established businesses with div yields over 5.5 fully franked or over 6.5 will lower or no franking, combined with PE not much more than 12 (some less). PEs and yields on some good companies have got much better with recent SP falls. Have about 20 on the list and have bought 6 so far.

In the less established companies, I've been buying NMS, IGO, CBH. Also have a reasonable holding in ROC and was planning on picking up more at or below $3.00. Might have missed that one, but we'll see. Have a short list of a few others that have not quite got down to my price yet. Only time will tell if I've missed the opportunity.

This process has given me the opportunity to restructure the portfolio. I've put a lot more focus on research in the past couple of weeks (was getting a bit bored with it for a while before) and I'm confident I'll come out of this period with much more qaulity and balance in the portfolio.

Hope others are taking the same opportunity.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 8 2007, 11:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: kahuna1 on Wednesday 08/08/07 09:37am

Hi Kahuna, I just love these discussions as a means of testing out current thoughts.

As I said before, I'm not suggesting doom - far from it.
I just can't see the 12% or more growth for China continuing for ever.

Growth in China has been largely funded by exports of manufactured goods to developed countries. A large part of the imports to those countries have been funded by debt. Australia's Private Debt to GDP ratio is now over 150% and the chart is almost vertical. At the current rate, it will be over 200% in a couple of years. US Household Debt to GDP is on a similar rise.

This has all been driven by low interest rates and very easy credit. Credit so easy, that about US$1.3 trillion was loaned to US home buyers who by any sensible assessment, were never going to repay the loans. Trillions more were loaned against increased home equity, with values distorted by the demand created by easy credit. Well easy credit is no longer quite as easy.

Many of the people who were never going to repay their loans have started defaulting and many more will follow. Many borrowers (about another US$1 trillion worth) who until about now were on Honeymoon interest rates are about to go to market rates. This is a new phenomenon in the US where traditionally most mortgages were at fixed rates. Many of the 'middle Americans' who had borrowed against increased equity to fund lifestyle now find they have negative equity in their home. .

This must lead to reduced spending in the US and lower demand for Chinese (and other) imports. How much lower; who knows - certainly not me, but lower all the same. Now the emerging economies you mention are also driven in part by exports, so there will be some impact on them.

Even in Australia increased increased rates will see a greater proportion of income needed for mortgage repayments, so less available for other spending (that being the aim of the rate increase after all).

Yes, the Olympics are on their way and will give a great boost to China. But the major infrastructure spending has probably already peaked and will steadily decline over the next couple of quarters.

If there is a slow down in China (and I lean towards that view), how deep will it be and how long? I don't know, but probably not deep (couple of % points??) and probably not long if other global economic fundamentals remain strong. But I suspect there will be enough in this to prevent a return to anything like record highs in markets for some time. It also leads me to the view that we have probably not yet seen the bottom.

Of course others will see things differently. That's what creates a market. But my current investment strategies are based on this assessment...... Plenty of time and plenty of buying opportunities to come. When available at my price, buy quality stocks with proven track records or reserves. With those stocks, be prepared to ride out even lower markets if they come.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 8 2007, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: honeycomb on Wednesday 08/08/07 09:09am

Honeycomb, this is a small extract. There is more including a bit on Chinese manufacturing surveys, new orders index and Purchasing Managers Index, but since it comes from a subscription with FN Arena, I'm not prepared to post more.

This particular report may be available on their public area if you look, but I'm not sure.
http://www.fnarena.com

'After a few weeks of heavy share market turmoil due to a global re-pricing of risk it would seem investors will soon have another "surprise" to focus on with economists and China watchers predicting a growth slow down for the Chinese economy. Given the current jittery state of investors' nerves across the globe it is not inconceivable this news, once official, will initially be taken as a major negative.

China's economy was never going to continue powering along at 12%+ growth. Last month a few China-based economists at international financial institutions such as JP Morgan and Credit Suisse already suggested China's growth numbers would soon start trending down. That call turned out too early as July's GDP growth figure surprised on the upside showing GDP growth beyond 12%. However, the number of China watchers who have joined the view of an economic deceleration for the Chinese economy has steadfastly grown over the past few weeks. '

  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 8 2007, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

It seems that the consensus on China (as far as consensus is possible on China) is that the economy is showing early signs of slowing. If it slows by 2 to 4 % points, it will still be growing at a very healthy 8 to 10%, but a slow down none the less.

There must be a fair chance that the housing slow down in the US will eventually feed into reduced US imports from China as well. I note there are also suggestions that inflation in China is now heading above 5% and towards 8%. If so, we can expect some government action to get this back under control.

Of course, other Asian region countries will take up some of the slack on any China slow down. But a lot of their expected growth was already factored in by the markets.

I'm not suggesting doom - far from it. What I am suggesting is that when added to current market uncertainty, stock markets could well go lower and take a bit longer to recover than some might be expecting.

Despite all this, I've been a net buyer in recent days. But have so far used only about 12% of my available cash. I have a list of about 20 stocks I'd like to buy at the right price. They all need to drop further (some a further 10% or more) to hit my price points, but I'm ready if they do.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 7 2007, 07:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: rog on Tuesday 07/08/07 05:20pm

I'll choose not to get into the debate on whether CST needs a 'Roadshow' but:

'A roadshow is a term used in finance when a company presents itself to financiers - when they need money.CST doesn't need money so it doesn't need a roadshow.

Exactly OFD, end of story.' {sorry, don't know how to put this in a 'quote box}

is not entirely true.

'Roadshows' are regularly done by companies not seeking funding. In my previous life (before leaving the 'rat race') I had personal experience with Roadshows and our company (a top 50 ASX company at the time) was not seeking funding. Our target was generally Australia, USA and UK and we were seeking better understanding of our business and its strategy.

They are regularly run by companies that believe they are misunderstood by the market or are planning a change in strategy or company direction.

I would say though, that in my experience, Roadshows produce only a short term change in perception by brokers and institutional investors (the targets of Roadshows). Performance is the only long term driver of perception.

I'm happy for CST to be better understood by the market and if that's done by Roadshow - fine by me. But what I'd really like is for it's product to be better understood and accepted by the holders of the medical purse strings.

I'm in this stock because of its potential to achieve 80% or more market share, not for incremental quarterly sales increases. Changing the perception of investors won't achieve that. Changing the perception of Governments, Health Departments and major health spenders of major countries will.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 7 2007, 11:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

A few facts on MCG for anyone interested
Obviously one of Macquaries many recent 'buy and onsell' projects.
In many respects it is a utility provider in the communications area. Its major assets are:

a 100% shareholding in Broadcast Australia, the owner and operator of a national broadcast transmission network which provides transmission services to the ABC and SBS, and to regional television and other media, telecommunications and community organisations.

a 54% investment in Arqiva, a leading broadcast services provider and wireless site operator in the UK and Republic of Ireland.

a 100% interest in NGW through Macquarie UK Broadcast Ventures Ltd (MUKBHL). NGW has around 5,200 active sites used for mobile communications and around 750 towers used for radio and television transmission broadcasts. NGW provides services to more than 16,000 tenants. NGW was acquired by the parent company of Arqiva Ltd; MUKBHL.

a 50% interest in Airwave, a primary provider of secure digital radio and communications to Great Britain’s police, fire, ambulance and other public safety services, using a purpose built network that covers 100% of the population and 99% of the land area.

MCG has a stapled security structure. Each 'share' has stapled to it a unit in three separate entities.

52 week high $6.91
52 week low $5.60
Current price $5.80

2007 consensus dividend is is 46c per share, giving a yield of 7.9% (no franking)

Not a sexy growth stock, but possibly one for the SMSF or part of a balanced portfolio.

Norm C

  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 7 2007, 08:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: nilsan7 on Tuesday 07/08/07 07:31am

Nilsan, I'm not claiming to be an expert. Far from it. But there are many ways to look at this. Before the overnight recovery on the DOW, it was off 6.6% from its 52 week high. Yesterday the XAO closed 7.75% off its 52 week high.
Not enough difference there for me to read much into.

Just one alternative view. There are potentially many more.
  Forum: Macro Factors

normc
Posted on: Aug 6 2007, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: rog on Monday 06/08/07 05:38pm

Hi rog, although your response was to elleburra, the post you responded to was a comment on one of mine. At least I think it was. your response was to a 4.52 post and I don't see one at that time. Forgive me if I am missunderstanding you.

I (and Elleburra) have commented on the long term (like 3 year) performance of this company. Even if someone is 'playing with the share price', it is pretty irrelevant to long term trends and performance. If we worry about a few % move over a day or a week, we are in the wrong game. My interest is in the one year, three year and longer performance of a stock as I commented on earlier.

Also, unless you have very (very) deep pockets it is almost impossible to 'play with a share price' against the trend. Even if this is the same trader (as suggested by skorpian and I'm not debating this), it is only possible due to the lack of buyers. A lack of buyers and lots of sellers has only one outcome.

And finally, even if he is successfully 'playing with the share price' and managing it down below its 'correct' level, isn't that good. No one here is looking to sell tomorrow or next week (an assumption), so the lower it goes the better the opportunity to buy more at a bargain. I don't believe in rational markets in the short term, but in the longer term (investment timeframes), markets on average, get values about right. If there is value in CST, the market will reflect it in time.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 6 2007, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Puzzled on Monday 06/08/07 02:21pm

Puzzled, the market acts more on perceptions and expectations than reality. That is, a 'best guess' at what is going to happen, rather than what has already happened. The problem with CST (and many other stocks) is that the markets 'best guess' was wrong 3, 2 and 1 years ago.
I think you are right in it being sales (and ultimately profit) growth that will drive the SP. Further announcements such as FDA approvals will have only short term effects without sales results. But I don't think it will need a full year of good sales to get things moving. I think your first statement of a couple of quarters is on the money, provided the market makes its 'best guess' that this growth is now sustainable and is likely to accelerate. So it is the story that can be told with those couple of quarters of sales that will make the difference.

If the story of continued and accelerating growth is believable after about two quarters, I think the SP can move substantially. If it is not believable (or there is no 'story' at all that helps the market make a judgment, well we may continue in the $2.60 to $3.60 odd range for a while yet.

If you are looking to buy more, I guess there are two ways to look at it. One is to try to pick the bottom of the current correction and take advantage of that, then wait for the sales to improve. The second is to keep your powder dry and wait for real evidence of improvement. The second of these would see you pay a higher price, but in return you should have more clarity over the possible outcomes. It comes down to your investment style and what else you have to do with your cash in the meantime.
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 6 2007, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Hi guys. Just read through some of the CST thread from past couple of weeks. Too much else to do recently. As a small number of you may remember, I used to be a regular on the thread a couple of years ago. I still hold CST, but am now just an occasional 'lurker' on the thread. Some of the research you guys do on this stock is amazing and just not available elsewhere.

As I say, I'm a long term holder of CST and believe that from a medical research and product development point of view, it is hard to fault the people involved in this business.

But the simple facts are that by any financial measure, this has been one of my worst performing investments to date. The one and three year returns on this stock are the second worst in my investment portfolio. The only worse performance is from TIM, which was severely impacted by a change in government policy.

Against the company's own expectation, and particularly against the expectation of investors, financial outcomes have been poor. Revenue, profit, cash flow and share price have all been well below expectations. You only need to look at the SP comp over the past 3 years run on this thread to judge investor expectations against outcomes. Some of this just comes down to execution risk and unrealistic expectations, particularly in this industry which is very difficult to sell to. But regardless of the reasons, CST has so far been a poor investment for many of us.

None of this changes my positive view of the company's potential to succeed in the future. After all, I have only ever been a buyer of CST; having never sold a share. But with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I probably invested in this company about 4 years too early. I would have been better with the money anywhere else in my portfolio other than TIM.

Nothing new in my post, I know, but a couple of people who have commented on CST underperformance have copped a bit of a bagging recently. Just thought I'd post my experience with CST to put some context to the discussion, which I accept is largely in the past anyway.

From my point of view, I like to hear counter views to my own as long as they are presented logically and respectfully. It helps test and confirm (or not) my thought processes.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 2 2007, 05:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Now that was an interesting day. I think for the moment, we have gone from trying to pick the top to trying to pick the bottom. Picking the bottom might be even more difficult than picking the top.

I don't think we have seen the bottom yet, but I lashed out today and put in buy orders on 10 stocks at prices I'm prepared to pay (obviously). Had five of them filled, all after lunch when the market dropped a bit.
MBL hit my buy price, but I didn't submit an order. Chickened out on this one yesterday and again today.

Still keeping plenty of powder (cash that is) dry to take advantage of further falls should they come.

All eyes on NY again tonight for the next 24 hours of direction. Bit hard to look beyond 24 hours at the moment, other than backing your judgement on quality stocks that will recover well no matter where the market bottoms.

At least this situation has my mind working again. I was getting a bit bored with the market over the past couple of months.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 1 2007, 07:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Well, I guess this is what a few of us have been waiting for and expecting. But not quite this quickly.
In a post on 24th Jul on this thread, I commented that I was @ 50% invested in ASX, but looking to come down to around 35 to 40 % in an orderly fashion due to concerns about US Sub Prime and other issues and general market levels. Well it didn’t quite happen that way. The very next day, the slide started. Sold a few and got down to 45%, but part of my reductions are more a result of market falls, than conversion to cash.

I’m not too concerned as my ‘real’ ASX exposure is around 35% as I have 10% of portfolio in listed interest rate securities, which are largely left out of this sort of action.

Those of us with some cash (hope there are a few) are now well placed. It’s just a matter of having the courage of your conviction to pick the buy point. Not sure I have that worked out yet.

A few months ago, I started a spread sheet of companies I would like to buy on a correction and my buy price. One hit the price today – MBL, but I did not have the courage to buy without further research and consideration. Wonder if I’ve missed an opportunity?

I do think there is time though, and there may well be more down before there is another reliable upward trend. . Hope it is not the ‘quick or the dead’ though. Think I might need a couple of days to sort through some stocks before I toss the hard earned back into play.

All eyes on NY tonight for direction. But direction from there has a life of around 24 hours these days.

Norm C
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Aug 1 2007, 04:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

AXO dipped below 6,000 momentarily, but it looks like the instos spent enough to get a 6,000+ close - just. But after market wash up might yet see a below 6,000 close.

All eyes on NY tonight to get a direction for tomorrow. But don't be too surprised if it is down. Not much logic to that, but logic has nothing to do with markets in this frame of mind.

I had unwound a lot of my ASX holdings recently. Was at 45% of portfolio 2 weeks ago with intent to manage down to around 35% do to some concerns. Had meant for that to happen via conversion to cash, not by fall in value of stocks weirdsmiley.gif

Bit early for bargain hunting just yet I think. But the time will come. Hope we are smart enough to pick it.
  Forum: Macro Factors

normc
Posted on: Jul 31 2007, 06:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: 36590 on Tuesday 31/07/07 06:16pm

Suspect there might be a bit of softness due to the inquiry into Shopping Centre lease arrangements. Might not have a big impact on WDC, but it creates a bit of uncertainty. See this link for a bit of info.

http://smallbusiness.theage.com.au/growing...-901882272.html
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jul 26 2007, 02:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: King Baz on Thursday 26/07/07 01:42pm

More to come on this I fear.
Also, M&A will probably take a hit with higher interest rates charged to add a further 'risk premium'. Word is the Chrysler buyout might be in trouble with lenders demanding higher interest than first indicated. If this one fails, I suspect there will be a significant negative reaction on US markets.

Don't think market quite knows what to think about it all.
Last 7 trading days have seen Dow move +21, -53, +82, -149, +92, -227, +68

I think volatility is the name of the game for a while.

If I was still 100% invested, I think I'd be having some restless nights at the moment.

Interesting few months ahead I suspect.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Jul 25 2007, 08:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: normc on Tuesday 24/07/07 08:27pm

Oh Dear, hope my concerns have not come to fruition this quick. Possibly just another minor glitch, but even if so, it shows how skittish the market is. This is from ninemsn.

Wall St sees dizzying fall
Wednesday Jul 25 06:15 AEST
US stocks went into a tailspin overnight as disappointing news on the corporate earnings front and heightened fears about the housing slump prompted investors to retrench.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 218.01 points (1.56 percent) to 13,725.41 and the Nasdaq slid 50.71 points (1.88 percent) to 2,639.87 at the closing bell.

The broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index retreated 29.77 points (1.93 percent) to 1,511.80.

In the absence of economic data, the markets focused on corporate earnings, including some disappointments from high-profile names including American Express, DuPont, Countrywide Financial and Texas Instruments.

Analysts said weak results at mortgage giant Countrywide reminded investors of the mushrooming problems from the crisis in subprime real estate.

"Following the company's slashed forecasts and nightmarish conference call, investor confidence is dissipating regarding mortgage banking earnings," said Patrick O'Hare at Briefing.com.

"The call only further magnified concerns that subprime defaults could be spreading to the prime market, in addition to the fact that Countrywide appears to be signaling there is no relief in sight for the broader housing market."

Norm C


  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Jul 24 2007, 08:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: bloodclot on Tuesday 24/07/07 06:50pm

Hi Bloodclot, I'm not pessimistic. Far from it. Life has never been so good. Gave up work 4 years ago, thinking I could afford 12 to 18 months off before I get back to the grind. Now I have enough in the super fund and (just) enough out of it, so I never have to work again. 'Retired' at 48, with money in super (and out of), but not enough, but now there is plenty. What a difference 4 years in a bull market makes.

Would I like more? You bet. Am I prepared to lose 20% or 30% of what I have against doubling my wealth again in the next couple of years. Don't think so.

I've gone from 100% (personal and SMSF) in the ASX two years ago, to about 50% today. Still selling more than I'm buying. I reckon I'll settle at about 35 to 40% in ASX, but selectively invested.

Why? Well on one read, there is no reason to suggest the bull run isn't still in full stride. But on the other hand, PEs are at close to long term average which suggests that short of continued significant profit increases, the market is getting close to its peak. Effect of US sub prime problems has a fair way to run I believe and the flow on will be to much more than a few Hedge Funds. Another couple of interest rate rises could knock the top off consumer spending and confidence in Australia. Rampant Aussie dollar is great for some, but not others. Despite the strenght of the Aussie economy, we are beholden to other bigger markets.

What does all this (and more) mean. Frankly I don't know. But it means enough for me to be cautious. My portfolio changes over the past 6 months have already cost me well into '6 figures' in opportunity costs. If I'm wrong it will cost me a lot more. I already know I moved too early on some stocks. Sold my last major resource stock a couple of months ago. Bugger, but still have a few minors.

I just reckon we are within 10 or 15% of market top. Why? Because I do. I've done the yards is building my position. Don't want to risk too much against trying to pick the actual top. Don't think I could anyway.

You are probably at a different stage of life than me and good luck to you.

This might all be pessimistic in your view, but I'm still an occasional buyer. I'm just a lot more selective in my buys now. I ask myself 'what if' a lot more than I used to a year ago.

But stay optimistic. Apart from anything else, optimists live longer and for the moment (how long???) I think you might be right on the markets. biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Jul 24 2007, 01:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

.... with a bull market everyone who even saw a profit is convinced of their own brilliance.

You are right there K1. Many current investors have only ever known a bull market and believe making money through trading is easy.

We are all brilliant in a bull market. Well, maybe not all. For the past couple of months, my trades have been 3 or 4 sells to every buy. Some of the stocks I've sold have continued to rise, as has the market. Down to 50% of total portfolio in ASX and will go lower. How brilliant is that? Not very if market keeps goinig up as many suggest. Only time will tell.

Some of the small caps have been good to me in recent years (but a few dogs as well). My worry is that the margin between the small caps and the large caps has narrowed. On average not enough risk premium left in many of the small caps. In the event of a market downturn, they will mostly fall much more that the big guys.

I guess if you are in the camp of an 'endless' bull market there are still opportunities in the small caps. I'm not in that camp, so all my recent small cap trades have been sells. Still got a few though.

I'll have to work on my optimism I guess.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Jul 18 2007, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Finally some real action in CIX. The acquisition of Australian Unity General Insurance has been well received by the market. SP up over 20% in past week or so.

This is the most recent and by far the biggest in a number of acquisitions.

The great thing with this deal is that it immediatly starts releasing some of the large amout of tax losses in Calliden's books. It also gives the potential to start utilizing the large store of franking credits in the books much earlier than would otherwise have been possible.

The franking credits are likely to encourage CIX to start paying dividends as soon as they are in a position to do so.

I think we can now expect big things from CIX over the next couple of years.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jul 17 2007, 10:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

More fascinating than funny. You need to watch right to the end to get it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIJtKxdRQzY
Norm C
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Jul 9 2007, 07:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: RobAde on Monday 09/07/07 06:04pm

Thanks RobAde, I'll have a look. With just a quick look, the only screws are underneath. I guess I just keep undoing screws until it comes apart! See, I said anybody knows more about this stuff than me.
Perhaps I should back up the disk before I start?
Norm C
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Jul 9 2007, 05:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Any of you computer gurus able to help?
I have a Dell Inspiron 510m laptop computer. It is fine in every respect except that it has an increasing number of vertical lines appearing on the screen. About 12 so far, but increasing rapidly.
Is the screen stuffed?

I'm told that a new 'genuine' screen will cost over $500 and possibly close to $1,000.
I did a Google search and can't find any reference to my problem, but found that in the US, you can buy a new screen for most laptops (generic not brand name) for about US$100 and fit yourself.

Anyone got any info on this in Australia.
Do I have any realistic repair options? If it can be done for about $200 to $300, repair is the best option. The higher the cost, the more pressure to scrap it and buy a new one. Seems a pity though. It is well under 3 years old and works fine except for the screen.

Any advice from those who know more than me (that's pretty much anyone) would be appreciated.
Norm C
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Jul 9 2007, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: tomhar on Saturday 07/07/07 04:51pm

I agree with Tom on this one. I've held IFM for a couple of years now. Their industry has become far more competitive in recent years. They are not just competing with other similar products, but also with customers own internal systems.
To retain contracts, they have had to cut prices. They have not had a super big new customer come on board for a long time.
Despite all this, they have a good product and seem to run a good business. I continue to hold for the yield of about 6% fully franked.

As for Intelligent Investor, as you are new to the Stock Market, it is probably a good newsletter. Some good info on how the market works and how to read and analyse company reports. As for their stock picks? Well their best ones do well (as you would expect in a bull market). But they have had some bad ones as well. For a long time they were recommending MRL as a strong buy, only to see the share price collapse by about 50%.

I subscribed for a couple of years, but stopped a couple of years ago. I had followed two of their tips which cost me dearly. Bought MRL and held too long. SOld ALL way too early on their recommendation. ALL doubled in price after Intelligent Investor put a Sell recommendatioin on them. My only subscription now is to FNArena, a web based investment news service. If interested you can get a free trial of their service before subscribing. They don't do stock recommendations, but do publish summaries of reports and recommendations from a number of big broking houses.
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_trial

My thoughts are use Intelligent Investor tips as a prompter to do further research yourself. Don't ever buy shares on the basis of someone elses recommendation without understanding the business, opportunities and risks yourself.



  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jul 5 2007, 03:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: vind on Thursday 05/07/07 02:38pm

Aren't franking credits great vind?
Your 16% is pre tax though. But even at the full 15% tax rate for the SMSF, that is still 13.6% after tax. Not a bad return.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jul 5 2007, 02:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Recently announced anticipated 15 to 20% profit increase for the year to 30 June 07 is good news. But shares on issue have increased by almost 15% over the past year from placement and DRP. So income per share is probably only up slightly.

Last year CIY paid $0.45 per share in fully franked dividends. At today's price, that is a yield of 11.5% fully franked.

I suspect the full year dividend for this year will be at least $0.45 and possibly $0.48 to $0.50. At .48c, yield is 12%. Dividend ratio is high, but doesn't see to be a problem.

I suspect sentiment is down on this stock due to problems elsewhere in the sector, but CIY seems to be a well managed business, with a fairly wide range of business interests and geographic spread. All in the property sector though.

I've held CIY for a couple of years and will probably increase my holding for the SMSF due to the dividend stream. Good buying at $4.00 and below I reckon.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jul 5 2007, 11:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Ongoing technical problems at the Darwin plant (particles not being effectively filtered out of the fuel during production) have reduced production below forecast. Company believes it has a solution, but we will see.

Apart from this 'short term' issue, the biggest problem is the cost of palm and other oil as an input to production. Company says the price of palm oil has reduced in recent weeks and they see this as the start of a longer term trend. If this continues, profitability will be achieved at the Darwin plant. The reverse is also true of course, if palm oil price does not stay down, profitability will not be achieved.

3 plants in Singapore are scheduled to enter production later this year and one in Houston Texas next year.

This is a company with big plans for bio diesel production. The production facilities seem to be largely on plan.

Apart from running their business effectively, three things are needed to make this a successful business:

Increase in diesel fuel usage. I think this is a given. Many vehicle manufacturers are turning to diesel as a solution to new emission control regulations.

Increase in the price of fossil fuel to make bio diesel more competitive. Your guess is as good as mine on this one. This is the wild card and is entirely out of the control of NFL.

Reduction and management of the long term price of palm and other oils used as inputs to production. In the long term, it is likely that market forces will force this to happen. In the short to medium term, some volatility can be expected. NFL is negotiating long term supply contracts, but they can work both ways. They may need to invest in production themselves for at least a proportion of their requirements. Through a combination of market forces and company action, this issue is likely to be manageable to some extent.

If all of the above works in the company's favour, this is a company with a very big future. Today's price will look very cheap indeed in a few years.

As stated above, the price of crude oil is, I believe the biggest factor in NFLs future success.

I don't think there is a big rush to make decisions on NFL as an investment. Apart from regulation, unexpected tax breaks for bio fuels, or similar, the only short term boost to share price I see is from a big jump in crude oil price. Other factors will take many months and probably at least a year to work their way through.

I have a small holding in NFL to maintain my interest. No plan to buy more immediately, but well and truly on my 'watch list'.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jul 3 2007, 02:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Well guys, after about three years of promise, but no delivery I decided to bail out of this one and took my losses in last FY. Sold out last Fri.

That's a sure fire way for me to guarantee the price will go up over the next few weeks.
So good luck to all of you when it does.

I just could not wait any longer and had resolved to get my SMSF portfolio in order. With no income and no growth this one just did not fit.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jun 23 2007, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: hbswrx on Saturday 23/06/07 09:05am

hbswrx, I'm far from an expert, but I have been around the market for a long time. I learned some lessons through experience in the mid 80s. I rode a stock all the way up to a 10 bagger and thought it would never end.

I then rode it all the way down through the '87 crash into oblivion. Although my actual losses were not great, the paper losses were high. That company was Ariadne. You might be too young to even have heard of it.

NMS is a very different beast, but I now tend to lock in someof the gains on speculative stocks periodically. As the old saying goes, no one ever went broke taking a profit.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jun 22 2007, 10:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

What a great gainer this stock has been. The wonders that new leadership and strategy can bring.

I made a small ($10,000) investment in the options a few months ago as part of the speculative section of my portfolio. I have some loose rules around these trades. One is that if a stock becomes a 10 bagger I sell. Only 15 cents to go to achieve that hurdle.

I think over time, there is more than 15 cents left in this stock. Might have to reconsider my rules and only sell part.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 17 2007, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Cooper on Saturday 17/02/07 11:14am

Bit of a worry. Worst defeat in 35 years. Worst ever to NZ. The 3 losses in a row (and 4 of last 5), means for the first time ever (since inception anyway), we are not alone at the top of the world ranking for ODI. South Africa now equal apparantly. One more loss in NZ and we slip to 2nd.

Not a great lead up to World Cup.

We let England get on a roll and build confidence. Now looks like we are doing the same thing with NZ.
'
Perhaps it's all part of a plan to get them all to treat us a bit lightly???

I'm sure we will bounce back, but enough to win the World Cup? Who knows. The field has opened up a bit at least.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Jan 20 2007, 07:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: lancelots on Wednesday 17/01/07 07:57pm

Lancelots your comments on the economics and practiclity of feed stocks are reasonable. You also comment though about a 5% blend at the bowser. Bio diesel can be (and is) used as a 100% fuel in many cases. There are already a small number of (mostly independant) petrol stations selling this product in Australia. None in my area unfortunately.

People I know who run it in their 4WD say that apart from the the cost benefit (not sure what that is at the moment, but note that dino diesel has not yet come down as much as ULP at the pump) and environmental benefit, engines run smoother and cleaner with engine oil remaining clean longer.

I have no doubt it will take some time (probably years) to catch on. But I also understand that the new range of Toyota 70 series vehicles (utes, Troop Carriers and a new wagon) will come with diesel as the only motor option. Many passenger cars in Europe are diesels. It will eventually catch on in Australia. In any case NFL is targeting a global market.

I can't say that NFL will be successful. That's in the lap of the gods and campany management, but I am convinced that the global (and Australian) market for diesel fuel will grow enormously over the next several years.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 19 2007, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Little Tommy was staying with his Grandma for a few days. He'd been playing outside with the other kids for a while when he came into the house & asked her, "Grandma, what's that called when 2 people sleep in the same room & one is on top of the other?"



She was a little taken aback, but she decided to just tell him the truth. "It's called sexual intercourse, darling".


Little Tommy just said, "Oh, okay," & went back outside to play with the other kids. A few minutes later he came back in & said angrily, "Grandma, it isn't called sexual intercourse, it's called Bunk Beds, & Jimmy's mom wants to talk to you."
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Jan 19 2007, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Actual Web Addresses




All of these are legitimate companies that didn't spend quite enough time considering how their online names might appear ... and be misread.

These are not made up. Check them out yourself!

1. Who Represents is where you can find the name of the agent that represents any celebrity. Their Web site is www.whorepresents.com

2 . Experts Exchange is a knowledge base where programmers can exchange advice and views at www.expertsexchange.com

3. Looking for a pen? Look no further than Pen Island at www. penisland.net

4. Need a therapist? Try Therapist Finder at www.therapistfinder.com

5. There's the Italian Power Generator company, www.powergenitalia.com

6. And don't forget the Mole Station Native Nursery in New South Wales,
www.molestationnursery.com

7. If you're looking for IP computer software, there's always
www.ipanywhere.com

8. The First Cumming Methodist Church Web site is www.cummingfirst.com

9. And the designers at Speed of Art await you at their wacky Web site,
www.speedofart.com

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Jan 10 2007, 12:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: OMS on Wednesday 10/01/07 11:39am

OMS, If the only reason you would buy more is to 'average down', then I suggest you don't do it. Regardless of price, I never buy a stock I don't believe in. When I stop believing in them, I sell.

If you believe in FAR and that it's price will go up within your investment time frame; consider buying more. If not, steer clear and possibly sell.

I gave up worrying about daily or weekly price movements a long time ago. Since then, I'm much more relaxed about investment decisions. Sleep better too.

Doesn't make decisions a lot easier. Just gives them some structure.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Dec 28 2006, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

MXG has entered into an Enforceable Undertaking with ASIC to make a settlement to stapled security holders who bought on or after 3 Feb 05 and settled for purchases on or before 31 Aug 05. The total settlement is $32M. This relates to an investigation by ASIC into a lack of disclosure about the Wemberley fiasco. Related entities are not entitled to compensation.

I made four separate purchases of MXG, all in that period, so looks like I'm in for some compensation. I'm not complaining, but I think the time window for compensation is too wide. My earliest purchases were made without full disclosure from the company. They led the market (and me) to believe the risk of further write downs was low when they knew this was wrong. My later purchases (but still within the time window), were made on the basis that I thought they had been over sold (regardless of the Wemberly issue), which turned out to be right. I've made a 20 to 25% capital gain on these later purchases (as at today) and I will still receive compensation.

Not complaining mind you, but this is largely a matter of transferring wealth from one group of shareholders to another.

Overall though, it is good to see a company picked up on non disclosure. As long as ASIC continues to press this issue with other companies. Pigs might learn to fly first though.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Dec 28 2006, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I took an interest in the IPO, but did not buy in at that time. Placed an order a week or so ago which was filled today @ $1.17. So I've got in at a fair discount to the float price. Let's see where we go from here.

I think this is the best of the bio fuels floats so far, but it might take a year or so to get going enough for the market to take notice. I've got time. The holding is in the SMSF.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Dec 20 2006, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Was going to start a new thread, but given part of the title of this one (cash is king?), thought this is as good a place as any.

There's been some recent discussion on this thread about the merits of having some cash availavle at the moment. If you are holding a fair bit of cash (as I am), you obviously want to maximize returns, but also have ready access for when investment oportunities arise. Naturally when talking cash, security is paramount.

Where is your cash and what sort of return are you getting? I have a number of accounts with different banks, but my major holding of 'currently idle' cash is in a CBA 'Business On Line Saver' account currently drawing 6.15%.

Anyone doing significantly better than that? I'm not chasing every .1%, but a couple of points or more makes a big difference when dealing in fairly big numbers.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Dec 20 2006, 08:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: normc on Wednesday 20/12/06 08:28am
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 20 2006, 08:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Well it is a little Christmasy and a touch cute and naughty at the same time.

Click here: Christmas Balloon Dance
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 19 2006, 09:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Really should be in Friday funnies, but a I couldn't resist posting it here:

Little Billy is an English lad from Lancashire

Billy was at school this morning, and the teacher asked all the children what their fathers did for a living.

All the typical answers came out, fireman, policeman, salesman, chippy, plumber etc, but Billy was being uncharacteristically quiet and so the teacher asked him about his father.

"My father is an exotic dancer in a gay club, and takes off all his clothes in front of other men. Sometimes if the offer is really good, he'll go out with a man, rent a cheap hotel room and sleep with him."

The teacher quickly took little Billy aside to ask him if it was really true.

"No!" said Billy, "He actually plays cricket for England but I was just too embarrassed to say."
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 19 2006, 04:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

A little game to fill the quiet times:

http://www.bassfiles.net/parachute.swf
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 19 2006, 03:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: alonso on Tuesday 19/12/06 02:30pm

There is some wonderful truth and wisdom in all of these posts. Sometimes it is just refreshing to get the confirmation that others are facing the same dilemmas.

David, you are quite right about yield stocks in times of (relative) uncertainty, or any other time for that matter. I just love franked dividends. There's nothing quite like spending a couple of hours punching dividend information into the accounting package!! Great therapy.

As alonso says, typically when there is a correction, all stocks are affected. The better ones just recover much faster. Some of the poor ones don't recover at all when the correction is sustained, particularly if it comes with higher interest rates (I remember '87 very well). If you hold those good stocks and stick it out, you normally avoid damage, even benefit in the medium term as others move to 'safe havens' a bit late. If you don't own them and have cash and the courage of your convictions, you can pick up some wonderful bargins. Different strokes. Also your level of confidence that all of your stocks are the 'good ones' that will recover quickly.

I don't think anyone here is 'wrong', except anyone who is saying ' risk, what risk' or 'bear markets, they are a thing of the past- too much cash around for that to ever happen again'. I've heard it all before. And I suspect I'll here it a few more times over a couple more cycles at least before I lose interest in the markets and focus on spending my money.

jolsa, don't seek too much help for your split personality. I think it is a much more common condition than many of us want to admit. A pretty healthy one too, if you can keep them in balance.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Dec 19 2006, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: spot on Tuesday 19/12/06 08:14am

Spot, who has done best over the past 6 months is not the point. The point is, will you do as well as you want/need to do (or better than others, if that is your measure) over the NEXT 10 YEARS or more. No good crowing about past short term success when disaster strikes, or the market turns down when you are fully invested.

I'm not suggesting that disaster of a crash is coming, but it pays to be prudent, especially as you get older with less opportunity to rebuild. I've been around in the market for a long time (early '80s) and in every bull market the 'experts' have said this one is different. You can't compare it to the past. There is no reason why it can't continue, and pleny of reasons why it will.

Although I'm now a more conservative investor, I suspect I'm still far more agressive than the average. In the past, I was very agressive, which worked to my detriment at the time of the '87 crash. But I was young enoug to learn, recover and go on to success I would not have dreamed of at the time.

Like Agent Cooper, use cash (currently about 35%) for two reasons. One is for a bit of protection in these heady times. The other is to have ready cash available to pick up 'bargains' when (note when, not if) a correction occures.

I've still got a bit over 25% in Australian listed stocks (not counting some listed interest rate securities). The balance is in overseas stocks and real estate. This is simply a balanced portfolio, which everyone should have; but using their own view of 'balance'.

Over the past 6 months, my main changes have been a reduction in Australian stocks (was close to 60%); to cash, and a small move away from US stocks and into Asia, principally Japan.

I'm not suggesting that my approach is the best or better than yours or anyone elses. But given my experience over a long time (good and bad), my personal circumstances, my age, etc, it is about right for me.

Beign fully invested in the ASX at the moment, might well make you a lot of money. But it might lose you a lot as well. Depending on your circumstances, you might be betting your future on continuing to get it right. As I said before, no one rings a bell a few days before a correction.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Dec 18 2006, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

As always, some great and thought provoking posts on this thread.

Loved your last post Agent Cooper. You described my situation perfectly. Haven't worked (for a salary) for 4 years. Living off savings / investment / trading income. Four year ago when I left the rat race, had 'just enough' in SMSF to provide a modest lifestyle after age 55, funded by the super fund.

After applying a little skill and lots of luck (80% luck I suspect) to investments since then, our SMSF is in a position to supply a very good lifestyle after age 55. In fact, without being silly, we have no real prospect of ever spending it all. Looks like the kids might get something after all, though they will be pretty old (hopefully) by the time that happens.

I've become much more conservative over the past 6 to 9 months - about 35% in cash and another 15% in 'income securities' at the moment. Having done so well and cemented our future, one part of me doesn't want to push my luck too much and put the past success at risk. Add to that, the current market level and fever of leveraged buy outs and what that has often signaled in the past. Even more a time to consider the consequences of over exposure.

Despite this, I still find myself chasing returns - being greedy if you like. I also get a lot of enjoyment and focus out of chasing returns. Nothing like finding a spec you like, buying and seeing a significant gain over a few months (balanced by a few failures unfortunately), but still very enjoyable and sometimes profitable. A bit of a dilemma.

I try to discipline myself and never have more than 5% of funds invested in specs (at purchase price) and not more than 10% (at current market price) at any one time. Also never invest more than $20,000 as an initial buy in a spec company. But maintaining this discipline is not easy.

Also, outside the specs, like others, I find selecting and timing a buy decision to be fairly easy. Selecting and timing a sell is much much harder. I keep saying to myself 'you should convert more to cash while the market is high to lock in gains and avoid the risk of an inevitable correction (inevitable in all ways except degree and timing). But selecting the stock and doing it is a bit more difficult while all short term indications are for the market to remain robust. Unfortunately no one tings a bell a few days before a downturn.

Just some ramblings, but good to see others are in a similar situation, facing the same dilemma. But also in the fortunate position that we are well set for the future if we make the right decisions. My biggest issue these days is this higher level strategy. Not individual stock trades and price movements.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Dec 18 2006, 08:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Just because it's Christmas:

http://www.busybus.co.uk/design/xmas_santa.swf
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 17 2006, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

How Smart is Your Right Foot?

1. While sitting at your desk, lift your right foot off the floor and
make clockwise circles.

2. Now, while doing this, draw the number "6" in the air with your
right hand.

Your foot will change direction.
I told you so .....And there's nothing you can do about it
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 16 2006, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Read a report this morning of a brief interview with Freddie Flintoff after yesterdays play.
Freddie says, if they can contain Australia while they are batting, then bat well themselves, there is no reason why they can not replicate South Africa's performance last year and force a draw.

Knock knock, Freddie. Anyone there. Australia are only 140 odd in front. Shouldn't you be talking about a good first session performance today. Knocking over 3 or so Aussies in that session, then wrapping them up by tea, with a lead of 300 or so. Then batting well to win the match. I know that's the way the Aussies would be talking in the same situation.

Surely this is a big part of the reason the Poms can not win a match. As soon as things turn a bit against them, they don't think they can win. Individually they have had some very good performances (Pieterson, Collingwood, Hoggard, Flintoff himself (with the ball), and more recently Panasar and even Harmison). They have the players to challenge us, but not the team.

Got to love Panasar though. Hope he continues to do well and stick it up their stupid selection of Giles, because he is a better batsman. Monty showed on Thursday that he is a class above Giles with the ball and on the evidence so far, is better with the bat as well.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 13 2006, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: floyd on Wednesday 13/12/06 02:38pm

I had read this before Floyd, but suspected it might be largely untrue.

Well, Snopes says it is largely true.

Wonder why it has not caught on?

http://www.snopes.com/crime/deserts/pink.asp
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 8 2006, 12:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Another for Varmi
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 8 2006, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Just for you Varmi
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 8 2006, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Last one (for now)
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 8 2006, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

It's Christmas
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 8 2006, 12:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

It's Christmas
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 8 2006, 11:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

It's Christmas
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 4 2006, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Agreed Dream Run. I think we have plenty of batting depth, but might be a bit thin on bowlers. But we've been saying that for over 20 years, everytime key bowlers near the end of their career.

I think the selectors need to look for a couple of young guns (early 20s) to try to get some long careers to base our future team around. Hussey and Stuart Clark are great additions to the team, but neither will have long careers due to age. It will be the same for Jaques if he ever gets established in the team.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 4 2006, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

First session today will be critical. A couple of wickets and the Poms will be well placed to get a 100 run plus 1st innings lead. Build that to 250 to 300 quickly and have a go at us on the last day.

Conversely, Gilly and Clark get through the first session, then we get on the front foot and score real fast in the second to build a small lead. Have them at 4 for 70 at stumps then all out in the first session tomorrow for 160. Now we are set up to go for a win.

Yes I know, the second one is a bit of wishful thinking (but not impossible).

I'd rather either of these scenarios to fizzling out by lunch tomorrow to an almost certain draw.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 4 2006, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Dream Run on Monday 04/12/06 09:42am

Hussey would probably make a good captain and he is a good enough player.
But he is the same age as Ponting. Ponting would have to retire early (no sign of that) and Hussey keep playing a long time. It's a pity, but he was bought into the team a couple of years late.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Dec 2 2006, 09:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Not really humour, but absolutely fascinating just the same. Broadband required:

http://www.dailymotion.com/visited/search/...eo/xf9oo_jerome
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Nov 28 2006, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

This is an interesting one.
My initial interest was sparked as my other passion is travel in Australia by 4WD. By far the biggest expense in this sort of travel is fuel (diesel). Also, as I get older I think more about the future of our planet and what we are leaving for our kids and future generations.

NFL is raising $80M to fund further expansion of it's bio diesel manufacturing plants and has global ambitions.

They have one plant in Darwin which has just been commissioned and should be in full production early next year. It is a 50/50 joint venture with Babcock and Brown Environmental Fund (BEI). They have also commenced construction of a plant in Singapore.

By Dec 2007 they expect to have production of 750 million litres of bio diesel per year.

At the issue price for the IPO ($1.50) the company value is $500 million. I don't have a view yet whether that is fair or not.

John Hewson is Chairman.

Further info available via the Float Info tab on the ShareScene home page.

Anyone else taking an interest in this company?
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Nov 23 2006, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: theadder on Thursday 23/11/06 07:27am

From theadder's post:
'It will have early life, although I'm not sure how long it will last." Mitchell could have been speaking about the series as a whole.'

I'll always remain interested in the series, but once Australia is 2 wins up in the series, much of the current excitement will diminish unfortunately.

But for the moment, I can't wait to see that first ball bowled.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Nov 17 2006, 04:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: balance on Friday 17/11/06 01:38pm

Not quite as good as the Indian kids, but Adam Gilchrist missed the Australian limited over record for fastest centuary when he got there in 63 balls today against Qld at the WACA.
Look out Poms. Ended up with 132 off 92 balls I think.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Nov 17 2006, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Who's on first.... A current version

George: Condi! Nice to see you. What's happening?

Condi: Sir, I have the report here about the new leader of China.

George: Great. Lay it on me.

Condi: Hu is the new leader of China.

George: That's what I want to know.

Condi: That's what I'm telling you.

George: That's what I'm asking you. Who is the new leader of China?

Condi: Yes.

George: I mean the fellow's name.

Condi: Hu.

George: The guy in China.

Condi: Hu.

George: The new leader of China.

Condi: Hu.

George: The main man in China!

Condi: Hu is leading China.

George: Now whaddya' asking me for?

Condi: I'm telling you, Hu is leading China.

George: Well, I'm asking you. Who is leading China?

Condi: That's the man's name.

George: That's who's name?

Condi: Yes.

George: Will you, or will you not, tell me the name of the new leader of China?

Condi: Yes, sir.

George: Yassir? Yassir Arafat is in China? I thought he's dead in the Middle East.

Condi: That's correct.

George: Then who is in China?

Condi: Yes, sir.

George: Yassir is in China?

Condi: No, sir.

George: Then who is?

Condi: Yes, sir.

George: Yassir?

Condi: No, sir.

George: Look Condi. I need to know the name of the new leader of China. Get me the Secretary General of the U.N. on the phone.

Condi: Kofi?

George: No, thanks.

Condi: You want Kofi?

George: No.

Condi: You don't want Kofi.

George: No. But now that you mention it, I could use a glass of milk. And then get me the U.N.

Condi: Yes, sir.

George: Not Yassir! The guy at the U.N.

Condi: Kofi?

George: Milk! Will you please make the call?

Condi: And call who?

George: Who is the guy at the U.N?

Condi: Hu is the guy in China

George: Will you stay out of China?!

Condi: Yes, sir.

George: And stay out of the Middle East! Just get me the guy at the U.N.

Condi: Kofi.

George: All right! With cream and two sugars.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Nov 17 2006, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Eight Words with two Meanings

1. THINGY (thing-ee) n.
Female...... Any part under a car's hood.
Male..... The strap fastener on a woman's bra.

2. VULNERABLE (vul-ne-ra-bel) adj.
Female.... Fully opening up one's self emotionally to another. Male....
Playing cricket without a box.

3. COMMUNICATION (ko-myoo-ni-kay-shon) n.
Female... The open sharing of thoughts and feelings with one's partner.
Male... Leaving a note before taking off on a fishing trip with the boys.

4. COMMITMENT (ko-mit-ment) n.
Female.... A desire to get married and raise a family. Male......
Trying not to hit on other women while out with this one.

5. ENTERTAINMENT (en-ter-tayn-ment) n.
Female.... A good movie, concert, play or book.
Male...... Anything that can be done while drinking beer.

6. FLATULENCE (flach-u-lens) n.
Female.... An embarrassing by product of indigestion. Male...... A
source of entertainment, self-expression, male bonding.

7 MAKING LOVE (may-king luv) n.
Female...... The greatest expression of intimacy a couple can achieve.
Male.. Call it whatever you want, just as long as we do it.

8. REMOTE CONTROL (ri-moht kon-trohl) n.
Female.... A device for changing from one TV channel to another.
Male... A device for scanning through all 375 channels every 5 minutes
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Nov 10 2006, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

This will take a few days to digest. If I wanted to sell for .81, I would have sold earlier in the year at well above that price.

Guess I can't complain since most of my holding were bought @ .084 way back in Feb 2003, but I topped up @ .55 to .57 a few months ago. Will have to pay the full wack of capital gains on them. mad.gif

The directors have a more complete view than us, but I reckon there is not enough of a premium in this bid to warrant a sale at the moment. Just hope they are considering the interests of all shareholders, not just those at the top.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Nov 6 2006, 10:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: vind on Monday 06/11/06 05:38pm

I've traded these guys a couple of times. Bought for 1.30 almost 2 years ago and sold @ $1.67. Bought back in at $1.05, only to see them fall a lot further. Still hold and nice to be back in the black.

They went through a rough patch with some loss making divisions and management changes, but following restructures, divestments and now acquisitions they seem to be on the right track.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Nov 6 2006, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Well I'm now the proud owner of a few NMSO picked up over the past couple of days.
I had been tempted to buy into NMS late last year, but thought they were getting a bit over heated (which proved to be right).

NMSO seemed to be the best entry method for me at the moment.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Nov 3 2006, 11:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: radd on Friday 03/11/06 11:26am

Thanks radd
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Nov 3 2006, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

The NMS website seems to be down at the moment. I can't access it anyway.
Can someone tell me the exercise price on the NMSO 2010 options.

I'm looking to figure the best potential entry method to this stock.

Thanks
Norm C
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Nov 3 2006, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Finally some common sense seems to be returning to the TIM SP. First time over $3.00 for 3 months. Looks like some of the overdone fears over tax changes may be dissipating.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Nov 3 2006, 09:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Wow. Accurately predicting progression from latent to active TB would be enormous news, both for TB treatment and prevention and for our company.

I wonder if we are talking years or months before there is confirmation of this possibility with QFT.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 31 2006, 04:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Sorry to say guys, that I've been a seller on a couple of occasions, including a small sale today @.15 (placed order yesterday).

Close to 2 years ago I had way too may FAR for my portfolio balance. I aquired most through exercise of the FAROA options. My average buy price is a touch under 10.5c. At one time (just after FAROA exercise) I had enough to be in the top 20 shareholders, but they were split between 3 holdings (SMSF, self and wife). To rebalance the portfolio, I've sold on 4 occasions as 12.5 (small number) 13 (small number) 18 (largest number) and again a small number today @15. Today's sale was from personal (not SMSF) holdings to top up our living expenses account (we don't work).

I only post this info to indicate that there are often valid reasons (not to do with confidence in the business) for share sales.

I still have close to 1M shares, mostly in the SMSF and regard these as a 'medium to long term hold'. I've been a long term FAR shareholder and follow the stock pretty closely, but one day there will be a time and price to sell them all.

In my experience sell decisions and timing are often much harder than buy decisions and timing. Remember, everyone will sell one day.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 4 2006, 09:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

The recent price reduction on this stock has been way overdone, even with the uncertainty caused by the Govt. Only reason I haven't topped up is that I'm already overweight, with TIM and TIMPB together being the largest holding in my portfolio.

Regardless of the outcome of the current review, TIM has been oversold. SP movement over the past couple of weeks supports that view and even at worst case, it is still cheap.

My view only and unfortunately I have been wrong before.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 4 2006, 09:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

First $5.00 close since Jan 05.

And as a yield stock, still reasonable value.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 3 2006, 04:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: stefoid on Tuesday 03/10/06 03:44pm

Haven't sold any, so that probably answers your question.
The market clearly believes their will be another offer above the current price. We'll see, but I think they have buckleys chance of gaining control below .80; more likely closer to .90.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 3 2006, 03:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: jockyboy on Tuesday 03/10/06 01:29pm

PS. Normc in my book you get the prize for best logo, I love the walking man.

Thanks JB, it is my attempt at 'steady consistent progress is the way to achieve your objectives'.

It helps me remember my investment philosophy when I get involved in discussions about future values of stocks like CST.

Some on this thread have been predicting a massive immanent breakout for years. Just look at the last couple of years entries in the CST share price competition.

IMHO, we are still at least 12 months away from substantial SP moves.

Doesn't matter though. It is fun sharing views when things are a bit quiet.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 3 2006, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: hagar on Tuesday 03/10/06 09:32am

Quite right hager. I'm not having a go at you at all, just offering an alternate view as a matter of balance. As I said, I use $2 to $3 profit per test. In my previous post I plugged $2 as a counter to what I thought was your over bullish $7.50 estimate.

Long term selling price is still not known and it is possible (likely?) that high volume buyers will buy at a cheaper price, which will substantially reduce average selling prices.

@ $15 selling price, $3.00 NP is 20%
@ $12 selling price, $3.00 NP is 25%

Now these numbers are lower than those achieved by some industry leaders, but that is my conservative nature. But my $10m overhead and admin charge is also probably very low as the business ramps up.

When doing these 'back of the envelope' exercises trying to calculate possible future value, I use lots of scenarios, but my investment decisions are generally made at the conservative end. Much less chance of downside surprises and conversely a better chance of upside surprise.

In the end, we agree on one thing. The future value of CST is many times higher than it's current value. That is why we are here. The detail hardly matters at the moment, other than for our own calculations and as an interesting topic of discussion.

I've been in and accumulating CST for a couple of years. Until yesterday's jump, the recent SP has been a little below my average buy price, so in the short term it has been a poor investment. But I have never sold a CST share and I suspect it will be a while before I do.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 3 2006, 08:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: hagar on Tuesday 03/10/06 06:53am

That's great Hagar. If you are conservative, I'm not sure where that leaves me!!!!

It's a long time (couple of years) since I did this exercise on CST. I tend to use $2 or $3 as a gross profit figure per test. Being gross profit, I then deduct all the overhead and admin costs of running the business.

Just for the sake of punching numbers (ie no science whatsoever), if you use $2.00 gross profit and $10m overhead and admin cost and use all the rest of your assumptions, the projected SP is $10.50.

Increase gross profit to $3.00 and SP becomes $16.50.

A much more Conservative, but also more believable estimate.
But of course, this is just a game. Plug whatever assumptions you want to produce the end result you want.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Oct 2 2006, 11:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I reckon .68 is well short of the mark. This is nothing like the takeover premium that should be paid to get this business.

If our assessment of the underlying potential value is close to right, this might bring out a couple more potential suiters. .88 might spark some action.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 29 2006, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: doctorj on Friday 29/09/06 11:29am

Thanks Doc. Couldn't find it on Yahoo, but downloaded it from float.com.

To think I used to pay for access to this same data!!

Norm C
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Sep 29 2006, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I'm finally getting around to doing some admin on my SMSF in prep for tax return. I no longer subscribe to a data service, and was away on 30the June, so did not record closing prices for stocks in the fund.

Where can I easily get access to closing prices of stocks on 30 June 06?

I can readily access charts, but these are difficult to interpret accurately.

Thanks
Norm C
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Sep 8 2006, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: doctorj on Friday 08/09/06 12:45pm

Hi doc, first posts on this thread for many months. Been travelling up North and out of touch.

Although a lot has happened at the micro level, it is amazing how similar the current situation is to how it was in March / April.

Main change is some new faces on the thread. Always good to see, but it seems some of the old regulars have moved on, at least from the thread, if not the company.

Is Mangrove still out there following FAR?
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 8 2006, 12:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: rubba81 on Friday 08/09/06 12:23pm

Rubba, to the extent that I am not a current buyer, I agree with you. But as a long term holder (got a large number of shares via exercise of FAROA @ .07), I'm also happy to stay in and ride through the current period.
Of course there are risks (this is a speculative investment after all), but on balance I see much more potential upside than downside

At current price, IMO it is a buying opportunity for fundamental investors with a medium to long term outlook. For short term traders, or anyone who worries about every cent or two movement in the SP, it should be avoided at the moment.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Sep 8 2006, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: stezz on Friday 08/09/06 12:10pm

Cash clearly isn't the problem.
A bit of heat has gone out of the oil price and there has not been BIG news for a while and none is expected in the short term. Not likely to be any upward pressure under those circumstances.

On the plus side, there have been plenty of buyers at 13.5 to support the price.

I sold some at 18c a few months ago, only to see the SP go higher. Bought some back at 14c a while back, only to see the SP go lower.

That's the nature of the game with this sort of company. Yes it can be frustrating, but get used to it.

If you believe in the company, it's prospects and management, these short term gyrations are of little concern. More an opportunity than a problem.

If you don't believe in the company and are a short term trader only, that's fine, but you take your chances.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 30 2006, 01:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: balance on Wednesday 30/08/06 01:39pm

Hi Balance. Just letting you know someone else is out here.

I'm still holding CIY and have been happy with the gradual recovery.

They are a yield stock these days and until the next property boom is under way I don't think there is a real problem with high payout ratios. This is a pretty well managed business.

With the SP back above my average price paid, and the healthy dividend, I'm happy to hold in the SMSF.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Aug 16 2006, 10:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: mminion on Wednesday 16/08/06 12:43pm

OK, I now have one screen working fine (hasn't flashed to black for a few hours). The other screen still has the problem.

I agree that it is not likely to be software. Is is also not the screen. I've swapped the screens (1 for 2 and 2 for 1). The problem problem is hardware in the PC as the problem moved to the other screen; ie one jack from the PC has the problem.

Probably the video card, though I don't know enough about it's workings to know if it would stuff up one screen and not the other.

mminion, I like your theory, but only effecting one screen might disprove it??

Looks like a trip to the PC doctor is required.



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Aug 16 2006, 10:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: fatsoh on Wednesday 16/08/06 08:11am

Well I've got it going OK for the moment. Fiddled with the connections. One screen came good the other totally black. Disconnected and reconnected. Rebooted and all was black. Bugger I thought. Looks like a new video card. Turned off, disconnected and reconnected. Let it sit a while. Rebooted and all has been fine for 10 mins now.

I won't try to explaini it. But if it keeps working, I'm happy.

Thanks for the responses

Norm C
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Aug 16 2006, 07:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I have two flat screen monitors.
Both have started flashing to black for a couple of seconds. They do it at different times and the time between flashes varies from a few seconds to a minute or more, but is getting worse.

When they are not black, they are fine.

Anyone got any clues on this. Hope I am not up for new monitors. They are less than 3 years old.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: May 4 2006, 01:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: sprite on Thursday 04/05/06 12:57pm

Hope you are right sprite. Just going by all previous FAR raisings over the past couple of years. SP has always retraced to close to issue price for a short period. But of course there was not as much pending news and opportunity when many of them occurred.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: May 4 2006, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: bello on Thursday 04/05/06 12:49pm

Don't stress Bello. In a few months I doubt you will be very worried about the extra cent or so you paid for your shares due to timing. I'd be surprised if the on market SP falls to 13c. But 14 (13.5??) is a real possibility in the SHORT TERM. Wherever the SP was going before, it will still get there.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: May 4 2006, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I can confirm the previous posts that the trading halt is for a placement to 'Sophisticated Investors'. Placement is at 13c, which is a bit dissapointing, so we can expect a bit of a Sp retreat in the short term. In the longer term, the extra cash will strengthen the business.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: May 2 2006, 05:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I hope the people at fnarena don't mind my quoting part of their most recent Weekly Insights.
Their web site is:
www.fnarena.com

'The current bull market may not yet withstand the comparison with 1987, but the fact remains it has proven to be as relentless as any bull market can be. News that Chinese authorities are preparing another soft attack on overheating parts of the Chinese economy sent shivers through global markets last week, but as with so many previous times over the past four years, it all didn't last very long.

All it took for the market to bounce back was for a dozen market analysts and economists to come out and declare the Chinese authorities would not damage the Goldilocks scenario for global commodities and resources equities. Add a global powerhouse such as UBS who decides it is time to further raise metal prices forecasts (substantially), and it is easy to see why the feared global market correction has failed to materialise.

It is still the weight of money that does the talking, even though global liquidity has become tighter. With US interest rates about to go on hold, the Chinese economy continuing to power along, global inflation still a distant threat only and the US dollar having no friends left in the market, what other option is there for share prices to go but higher?

It doesn't take a genius these days to sense this market is again being driven by increased investor confidence. At Credit Suisse, where the experts have been measuring global investor confidence since January 1987, the investment strategists reported last week the broker's proprietary risk appetite index had reached a new twenty year high. In fact, since November last year, the index has remained in the euphoria zone for all but two days.

This has never happened before. Usually, the index moves between minus 2.5 (panic) and plus 5 (euphoria) and history shows touching these boundaries is often enough to trigger a correction up- or downward. Not this time. Two days aside, the index has been in euphoria for six months now. And it has just reached a new peak.

Many indicators fail to work when the overall context changes into a relentless bull or bear market - exceptional circumstances often require an exceptional approach. At FN Arena we discovered a seemingly iron clad relationship between the relative amount of Neutral recommendations in our database of ten leading market experts, and share price retreats.

While analysing the data over the past four years we discovered that every time the amount of Neutral recommendations drops below 51% share prices fall and broker recommendation downgrades kick in. The result is a share market that becomes cheaper while overall market sentiment (as measured in terms of Buy recommendations relative to Neutrals) sheds some of its bullishness.

Usually, this happens once or twice a year. Maybe three times. Maximum four. In April the amount of Neutral recommendations on individual stocks has been below 51% more often than over the past four years combined. In fact when you take the graph of the S&P/ASX 200 index you can easily pick the days when the amount of Neutral recommendations fell below 51% because those are the days when the share index retreated.

At least, that was the situation until two weeks ago. Since then our 'Neutral indicator' has refused to rise above 51% again. Now we know that being below 51% can still go hand in hand with further rising share prices. Guess what happened to the amount of Neutral recommendations? The number has fallen to 50.18%. Will it cross the 50% mark?

My best guess is that anything seems possible in times of a relentless bull market. But here comes the twist: I also noticed the amount of Buy recommendations has started to fall. Yes, that means the amount of Sell recommendations is creeping up.

The amount of Sell recommendations usually moves between 12 and 13% (brokers don't like Sells, but that's another story). The number is currently 13.36% which is nothing unusual or exceptional - but maybe it is the trend that counts at these levels. After all, climbing share prices in combination with a declining amount of Buy recommendations - that can only mean one thing: there is less perceived value in the market, despite rising bullishness.'

So what? Just more analysts with a view?

With the exuberance being shown by so many investors, it virtually impossible to know when this run will stop. But my exuberance faded a while back.

We will almost certainly see the market go higher than it is today. But how far? IMHO, the 'odds' on the next 10% move on the All Ords are around 30% for up and 70% for down.

I'm heading off for about 16 weeks in the Outback soon, with little access to the net and many places where sat phone will be the only comms. So cash is king for me for a while.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: May 2 2006, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Thanks for the comments guys. My average buy price is around 10c. Picked up about 70% of holding by exercising the 7 cent options a while back and paid an average of just under 3c for the options when I bought them.

Yes, I'm happy with the gains and I'd rather be in this position now with a 15c SP, than a few weeks ago struggling around 12c.

I'll think of you all while chasing a barra at Kalumburu, or mud crabs at Cape Leveque..... (NOT!!!)
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: May 2 2006, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: mangrove on Tuesday 02/05/06 12:10pm

Hi Mangrove. Of course you are right. It is (and will be) my decision.
Don't even know how much I would factor in the views of others. Just thought it might be an interesting discussion point.

KB, most of the shares are in the SMSF which I can not access for another 4 years, so needing the cash is not an issue. But preserving it is.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: May 2 2006, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Haven't posted here for a long time. Some of the FAR 'old timers' might remember that a few months ago I posted that I would have a big decision to make on FAR in early May. Well the time has come.
I head off this Friday on an extend trip (about 4 months) to remote parts of Western Qld, NT and the North of WA. I might be able to get access to dial up every few weeks when we hit a town, but much of the time will be out of contact, except for sat phone.

I have reduced my holdings across the board and now have around 50% cash. Happy to stay partially invested, but can not leave it all unattended.

I have a couple of 'speculative favourites', FAR being one, that are a quandary. I sold down a little on FAR at the last peak at 13.5c, but still have well over 1M shares. Now I know you are all FAR fans and would say leave them alone and they will be worth heaps when I get back, but.................

I've got a couple of days to 'sleep on it'. I'll do one of two things I suspect. Keep the lot and take my chances, or sell 25 to 50% of my holdings to lock in some of the current gains and let the rest run.

So, leaving aside the usual exuberance about FAR and your obvious belief that everyone should be a buyer and no one a seller, what do the FAR 'experts' reckon.

  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Apr 24 2006, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

High gas flow rates at Edge 1-10, but also high nitrogen content, which reduces it's value. Operator says they will blend with other gas in the area to increase value and achieve sales and is suggesting a well payback of 6 months. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Apr 20 2006, 08:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Back in January, I estimated that th AO would top out at not much over 5,100. I had been slowly moving to cash for a few weeks and accelerated to about 40% cash. I posted as much on this thread at the time. My only remaining commodities are some oilers (about 10% of portfolio).
Well you can't pick them all. While I've missed a bit of the gains over the past couple of months, I'm not concerned. I'm sleeping well.

I'm in the fortunate position that while I'd like to make more money, I don't have to. We have enough to live comfortably for our lives, and leave a little (very little) for the kids. I'll be drawing on the super fund in a couple of years and it is pretty healthy, so preservation is now important.

I'll push my cash closer to 50% over the next couple of weeks. I can't help but think the higher this run goes, the further it will fall. Also, I'm heading off for a 16 week odd trip to remote parts of our great country. I'll cut back to some selected favourites, defensive stocks, interest rate securities and a bit in managed funds, so I can relax without worrying too much about the market.

Well done to those who have remained fully invested, particularly if you have had a heap in resources. Hope it keeps going for you and you get to keep your gains.

A couple of months ago, I laughed at the suggestion the AO could make 6,000 before it retreats. Now, perhaps it will, who knows. But I'm not betting my money on it.

Although the underlying economy is strong, I think forecasting the market in 6 months is a guess. Those who get it right may well say 'there, I told you so'. But there will be people just as smart and experienced who get it wrong. I suspect the market will be lower in 6 months than it is today. But in reality it probably is a 50/50 call.

While I'm keeping a foot in both camps (remaining partly invested), I'm heading for safety.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Apr 12 2006, 04:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: theadder on Wednesday 12/04/06 02:55pm

Now that we are in this position, I doubt that the Aussies will let this one slip away.
I certainly hope we win, but if per chance we do lose, what a terrific boost for cricket in Bangladesh. Although they have only won one test, they came very close to a win against Pakistan.
They are a young side, so hopefully they will develop more over the next few years.
Great for cricket.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Apr 11 2006, 05:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Nice recovery over the past week or so. I topped up with a few more on the dip @$0.70. As usual I got in a bit early and missed the bottom, but I'm rarely smart enough to get the bottom, or the top for that matter.

$0.70 doesn't look too bad now though. No reason why OPL shouldn't get close to it's highs again over the next couple of months if the market keeps pushing ahead.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Apr 11 2006, 01:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: bing on Tuesday 11/04/06 09:52am

Having been in CST for about 18 months (not nearly as long as some here) I'm pretty happy with the SP and business development at the moment. I see CST as one of my 'get rich slowly' stocks. My 'get rich quickly' stocks include small oilers. I get more excitement out of the oilers, but I sleep a lot easier with CST. And I think in the long run, I'll make more money on CST as well.

As much as we all hope for (and predict in share price competitions) rapid moves from CST, in reality, I expect it to be another couple of years before this company shows it's real potential.

We all want stocks that only ever go up. If you find one, let me know. I've been in the market since the '70s and I haven't found one yet.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Apr 11 2006, 01:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I've held CIY for a while and paid just under $5.00 for my first batch. While not worried about the drop, I was a getting a bit frustrated at the opportunity cost and time it was taking to move up. I always thought they were oversold, and probably still are.
Bought more at $3.17 recently, which I thought was good buying at the time. Sometimes you get it right

Feel much better now biggrin.gif and happy to hold for the long term.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Mar 24 2006, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I picked up some more of these yesterday on their brief (further) dip. Although their industry is well off the top of it's cycle, their track record and excellent franked dividends leads me to believe they are currently undervalued. My average buy price is still above current SP, but I'm happy enough with them in the SMSF.

Getting throug their ASIC difficulties (which seem to be a beat up), should see them move up and back in favour with the instos.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Mar 10 2006, 12:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: happy2 on Friday 10/03/06 12:11pm

Saving $10 or so on brokerage. Comsec for example is $19.95 below $10,000 and I think it then goes to $29.95. Either way, $10,000 is a step up in brokerage.

Must admit, I always round shares to nearest 100, 500 or 1000, depending on SP.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Mar 3 2006, 09:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: the rooster on Friday 03/03/06 09:07pm

Hey Rooster, I hold some IMF. Bought them ages ago at price well above where they are now. Didn't put a stop loss on them as I suspected they might move around a lot. Early on they had trouble being taken seriously, but a number of court cases have found their business model and method of funding cases to be legitimate.

Their trouble now is the deathly slow progress of the courts. The total of their current claims is well over $1B, but it will take years for many of them to reach court.

Two or three big ones will see their profitability and SP change dramatically.

What I like is their case assessment process and the % they take on success. They don't take on lame ducks. Trouble is, the big ones are very complex and sometimes are making 'new law'.

Certainly not a trading stock. Probably one for the bottom drawer

  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 28 2006, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: sabretoothed on Monday 27/02/06 07:03pm

I'm reading most of the gains as being from the environmental oil technology and the momentum with it. But I could be wrong.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 27 2006, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: sabretoothed on Monday 27/02/06 04:56pm

Welcome to CRL sabretoothed. Not sure how relevant the long term past view is. The new market interest is based on an entirely new business, but interesting all the same.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 24 2006, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

I know no one else is interested, but just for the record, CRL is holding it's gains very well and is now up 112.5% for the year to date. Volumes remain pretty low, and sellers are scarce, but there is a bit of interest on the buy side.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 24 2006, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

We have some serious action on AAV today. Up .065 (7.65%) to .915.
I've been wondering when things would move.

Second half of last year they reported a loss of around $15.6M, but this included a $20.1M loss on sale of the loss making Digital Media Services business. So continuing operations had a profit of about $4.5M.

The only forecasts I can find suggest EPS of 16.6c and dividend of 9.5c for year to June 2006. If this is right, todays opening price had a prospective PE of 5.3 and Yield of 10.8%. Both are down slightly with todays SP rise.

If the forecasts are close to the mark, this company is way under priced. Todays price jump suggest others see the same thing.



  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 20 2006, 07:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: happy2 on Monday 20/02/06 06:49pm

Hadn't see that before H2. Thanks. I am particularly in tune with this quote:
'The majority of people always forecast that a trend in force will continue. A continuation forecast is usually nothing but an extrapolation of the recent past. Sometimes there is a valid basis for such an expectation, but not usually; typically it's just a default.'

This is true no matter which way the market is moving.

I think that is precisely what most who are predicting the market to be above current levels at the end of the year are doing. It is particularly true with commodity prices. Most brokers have given up with modeling supply, demand and inventory levels in the conventional way. Their calculated valuations are so far behind the market, they have just jumped on the train. Most forecasts have now become around or just above market. The price goes up 5%, they just up the forecast by 5% as well. The 'analysts' have stopped analyzing and have joined the herd.

Interesting though, Pretcher says the market is all about psychology, not fundamentals, but he has been a bear for some time.

He is predicting a much bigger fall than I would have imagined. But then, once the market starts a sustained fall, everybody will be predicting more falls. It all becomes self fulfilling.

My daughter has just a couple of subjects to go to complete a post graduate degree in psychology. She wants me to teach her about the markets. Perhaps I should get her to teach me about psychology instead.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Feb 20 2006, 03:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

A few views on where the market is today (courtesy of FN Arena):

'ABN Amro Morgans chief economist Michael Knox acknowledged, ten days ago, the Australian stock market was 9.75% overvalued at the end of January. The broker's so-called "Bubbleometer" also shows the market crossed the Overvalued line somewhere in 2005 and it has remained above it ever since.

Tolhurst Noall recently launched its Herd Index, showing the "herd" overvaluing the Australian share market more than it has done over the past five years.

A lesser known indicator is the Fear and Greed Index by Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Just like Credit Suisse's proprietary index, DrKW's F&G index is an indicator of global risk appetite. Different broker, same conclusion: the market is currently guided by "irrational exuberance", says DrKW, suggesting investors have thrown all reservations overboard (A cynic might conclude they have gotten used to taking risks and generating good results in so that the risks are now considered less risky. But are the good results taken for granted?).'

Of course there are as many (perhaps more) who believe the good times will continue to roll but I think the number suggesting caution is steadily increasing.

Buggered if I have the answer, but I've been exercising caution for several weeks and will continue to do so. That is ,continuing the steady increase in cash as a % of total portfolio.

I think fingers might get singed during this calendar year. Just don't know for sure whether it will be the bulls or the bears feeling the pain. But I see the bulls as as taking a much bigger risk than the bears in the current market.

Not seeking to convince anyone. Just airing my views again.





  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Feb 14 2006, 10:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Just got home from the game. Gilly was sensational; as were the Symonds and Ponting catches.

Katitch never looked in full control, but did well to bat through he innings. With Gilly he now has two opening stands over 190. He has 1x100 and I think 4x 50s for this series, but at a slow rate. To hold his place he needs to bat through the innings fairly often. If he can, the guys at the other end can go nuts. If he can't, he puts enormous pressure on the following batsmen.

If he gets to South Africa (team is announced tomorrow), he needs to go well. Gillie is safe and Jacques and Hayden are knocking pretty loud.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Feb 13 2006, 09:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: tezjm on Monday 13/02/06 09:16pm

Well said Tez.
I used to be a regular poster on this thread back when there were only 6 or 8 regulars and Welder Ranch and Eagle where a long way off or not heard of. Mangrove was here well before me and helped educate me on this stock. I'm more of a lurker these days. I've made my decision on FAR and don't have a lot to say that isn't already being said. Too much to do making decisions where I'm not so certain.

Now that we have dozens of FARers, more diverse (and sometimes less tolerant) views are to be expected. I respect the views of a number of the 'new' posters; but none more than Mangrove. Sure he (we assume you are a he Mangrove; see we make lots of assumptions on forums) is super positive on FAR, but that's what we love about him. We are all mature enough to make up our own mind on where to put our cash. At least I hope we are.

Anyway, hope to see you around occasionally. Particularly to share in the joy when the Eagle flies in!!
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 13 2006, 12:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: LookingConfident on Monday 13/02/06 10:49am

I'll be at the game LC. Looking forward to it.
Never had a problem with the 'wave' at the Gabba, but I've been to a few at the MCG where it was a real problem. The worst, a few years ago when it was sweltering hot. It started as a bit of fun with people throwing water in the air during the wave. It rapidly progressed to water battles (some full), food, beer etc. It is the only time we have left a game early. My wife had been hit by a full bottle of water, beer and half a pie.

We heard on the radio on the way home that the game had been halted for a while to try to get things back in order.

The problem is, if stuff gets thrown, it is difficult(impossible) for the authorities to catch the culprits. But they can easily detect those starting the wave.

Similarly, I reckon the beach balls are a bit of fun. But at an MCG game, I say a kid get injured by a drunken fool diving over people to hit a ball.

Another case of the few spoiling something for the many.
Under the circumstances I don't blame the authorities for cracking down.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Feb 9 2006, 05:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Market cap is now down 22% since the SGT announcement. Logically that is way over sold as SGT (shallows) was not worth anything like that. But as we all know, the market is anything but logical.

It won't be pretty if Eagle is a duster. Could go below the option exercise price, which would agaiin be over sold, but that is how the market works.

I'm still holding a heap and comfortable enough (Eagle was always the big one in the short term) but as the boy scouts say 'be prepared'.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 8 2006, 10:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: ozeb on Wednesday 08/02/06 09:19pm

They don't have to be true ozab; just funny.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Feb 7 2006, 07:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

THE BEST COMEBACK LINE EVER!
>>
>>Marine Corps General Reinwald was interviewed on the radio the other
>>day and you have to read his reply to the lady who interviewed him
>>concerning guns and children.
>>
>>Regardless of how you feel about gun laws you gotta love this!!!!
>>This is one of the best comeback lines of all time. It is a portion of
>>National Public Radio (NPR) interview between the female and the General
>>regarding a Boy Scout
>>Troop visiting his military installation.
>>
>>FEMALE INTERVIEWER: So, General Reinwald, what things are you going
>>to teach these young boys when they visit your base?
>>
>>GENERAL REINWALD: We're going to teach them climbing,
>>canoeing,
>>archery, and shooting.
>>
>>FEMALE INTERVIEWER: Shooting! That's a bit irresponsible, isn't it?
>>
>>GENERAL REINWALD: I don't see why, they'll be properly supervised on
>>the rifle range.
>>
>>FEMALE INTERVIEWER: Don't you admit that this is a terribly
>>dangerous activity to be teaching children?
>>
>>GENERAL REINWALD: I don't see how. We will be teaching them proper
>>rifle discipline before they even touch a firearm.
>>
>>FEMALE INTERVIEWER: But you're equipping them to become violent
>>killers.
>>
>>GENERAL REINWALD: Well, Ma'am, you're equipped to be a prostitute,
>>but you're not one, are you?
>>
>>The radio went silent and the interview ended.
>>
>>You gotta love the Marines
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Feb 1 2006, 11:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

It is times like these you need someone around with a little knowledge. I've got as little as anyone around here and frankly I can't tell from the available info what is happening (other than what is stated).
Some good and well informed assumptions already posted. After looking for a while, I conclude (as others have) that we have a glitch, nothing more. I'm reading it as business as usual and no need to panic (unless you were alrealy panicing before; if so, go ahead and panic some more).

This is all part of the 'fun of the chase' that we enjoy with oil explorers.

  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Feb 1 2006, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: happy2 on Tuesday 31/01/06 09:46pm

Correction should be a long way off if we are going to get to 6000 H2 (refers to our conversation on 'Cash is King' thread). But it is an interesting point.

I suspect CST would fall along with the rest in the event of a major correction. The speed of it's recovery compared to others is the key factor. No reason why CST should not recover faster than most, but would be better if a couple of brokers started covering it.

Buying quality stocks on a correction is often a very good strategy. But of course there is always the risk of a double dip.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 31 2006, 11:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Yep, that 4 in front of the SP certainly looks good. Got there on pretty small volumes.
As said before, once some insto's take an interest (and they will eventually), we will have some blue sky.
Stay patient guys (even if the SP recedes a bit). The good times will come.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 30 2006, 11:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: happy2 on Monday 30/01/06 09:22pm

Hi Happy, oppy seed sounds good. Hope it works.
A couple of weeks ago, I said (on this thread) I thought we were within 10% of a market peak before a correction. Hence a planned move to about 40% cash (currently about 30%).

For me to be right, we can't go much above 5100 before a correction. So your 'prediction' agrees with my best case.

But 6000!!!. Wow. But what do I know; it might get there. Bugger, better start buying again........On second thoughts, I don't think so.

While Kahuna (and perhaps me) might have been a bit early, all that is at risk is opportunity. Not many of us are smart enough to pick tops and bottoms of the market. I picked the last major bottom (March 03) to within a few weeks and started buying heavily. But I'm smart enough to realise that I was very lucky. Don't think I can do that again.

I'm probably getting cautious in my old age. A couple of months ago, I didn't think we would make 5000, but it is now almost assured, but 6000??? That seems a long way off.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Jan 30 2006, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: happy2 on Monday 30/01/06 07:50pm

Can I have some of what you're smokin' H2. It must be good.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

normc
Posted on: Jan 30 2006, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

LPL is up 6.5 cents (14.8%) on the Larner 2-12 announcement.

OPL should follow; and more. Hope so anyway.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 30 2006, 09:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Wow. I took a couple of days off for a long Aust Day week-end and the bum has fallen out of OPL. Major over reaction I think. Missed the low, but I've bought a heap more at 70 and 71.

Too many good things happening in this company for one bad drill (with low holding) to have a long term effect.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 24 2006, 09:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: Shara on Tuesday 24/01/06 09:24pm

Sorry Shara, you will never convince me on the cricket, but the tennis?

With good commentators, you can 'see' the game via their commentary. And 'The skull' is a hoot when things are a bit quiet.

Tennis commentary:

Forehand from Hewitt. Backhand from Roderick. (say that 10 times), then Hewitt's shot is long. Wow, that was exciting.

Sorry about you missing your normal broadcast. But the cricket stays.11 Switch over to National or News Radio (as long as Parliament isn't on). That should keep you happy enough while we enjoy the cricket.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

normc
Posted on: Jan 24 2006, 01:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: The Captain on Tuesday 24/01/06 12:41pm

Captain, I know you are just letting off some steam due to personal frustration, but 'sophisticated investor' is a specific legal term which is defined in Section 708 of the Corporations Act. It is used as defined in the Act and not as a put down to 'retail investors'.

I posted a link to info on this part of the Act yesterday.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 24 2006, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: doctorj on Tuesday 24/01/06 12:50pm

Well put doc. If Eagle comes up trumps, many may say the conversion point on the notes was set too low. If Eagle is a duster, many will say, wow what a great deal for FAR, we shafted the 'sophisticated investors'.

Now was the time to raise the cash in a low risk way and they did well to be able to set the conversion price above the market price. For the note buyers to win, we all have to be winners, and FAR get it's required cash.

Sounds like we are all in this together. If one wins, we all win.

  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 07:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Wow, this discussion is going all over the place. rslade, I see that from later posts you probably agree with some (at least) of what I just said. Couldn't see that from the earlier post.

Think I'll go and have a glass of red and come back later.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 07:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: rslade on Monday 23/01/06 07:04pm

Hold up a bit rslade. Anything less than 50% is a big punt? Well that may be so (in your view). I'd simply say if you want better than 50% chance of success with every prospect, oil explorers are not for you; especially junior oilers. No undeveloped prospect can ever be a better than 50% certainty. Perhaps not even better than 20%. And most are much less than that.

In this business, you have to weigh the level of certainty of finding oil against the potential size of the recoverable find. It is a risk v reward game.

I'm not about to try to allocate %, but the likelyhood of a find in Senegal is probably at least as good (more likely significantly better) than most other available acerages around the world. The potential size of a find is probably much bigger than most other areas (which have been extensively explored in any case).

Of course it is a punt. That is the nature of this business.

I'm in FAR for 2 reasons. First, the quality of their prospects. Second (and in the long run more important), the quality of management. I need both before I will invest in this type of company. One is not enough.

We will all have different views and different strategies. But one thing should apply to us all. If we don't think management is making good decisions, we should not buy or own the stock. Over time you need to work out whether you trust the FAR Board with your money. For me at least, if I lose faith in management, I press the sell button real fast.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 06:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: King Baz on Monday 23/01/06 06:39pm

Yep, sorry KB. Busy typing when you posted yours, so didn't see it till after. Doesn't hurt to get reinforcement. Wish I had access to this sort of help when I was starting out!!!
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 06:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

The link below provides a summary of what is required for companies to raise funds in the market. The general rule is that to raise funds, a disclosure document (prospectus) must be issued. As stated before, this is a lengthy and expensive exercise. There are a limited number of ways that funds can be raised without a disclosure document. Issuing to sophisticated investors is one. This is explained in the link.

Moving to another issue on funding a business. There are essentially two ways to fund business needs (other than from profit). They are debt and equity. In simple terms debt is borrowing the money and equity is issuing new shares.

More recently the term 'hybrid securities' has come into vogue. These are often a combination of debt and equity or other smart funding arrangement. There are heaps of these, many listed on the ASX. The ASX web site has good info on them.

Convertible Notes are initially debt. Buyers of the notes are lending money to the company at (in this case) 10% interest. The reason for the higher than normal interest rate is the risk. The notes (the loan) is not secured. In the case of a winding up (bankruptcy) of the business, note holders rank behind everyone except (normally) ordinary shareholders. That is they are at risk of losing their money. To borrow from normal sources (a bank for example), the company has to offer security. FAR doesn't have suitable assets and if it did, would not want to tie them up in security arrangements in any case.

So, note buyers are lending unsecured cash to a speculative business. They want an opportunity for a reward and higher than market interest in return. On the other hand, the company is getting the money now. If notes are converted in the future (converted from debt to equity) they are effectively issuing the new shares at 14 cents. If they were to do a placement (equity raising) instead of a note issue (debt raising), I doubt that they could issue the shares at more than 12 cents, more likely 11 (or less).

Having done the deals they have, they have little option. More cash is required. The only other option was not to do the deals in the first place.

If any of the big prospects come off. More cash will be required to fund development. SO there will be more debt (notes or other borrowing) or more equity (placements). The only other option would be to sell some of the interest in the prospect (farm in for example).

So, all in all, I think FAR have chosen a good way to get the required cash. Based on the current share price, there is no dilution. On the contrary, value is being added to all existing shareholders. Dilution only occures if the share price increases above 14 cents. Without access to more cash, the chance of this is reduced.

Sorry about the 'fundamentals of funding' lecture. Many of you understand all this, and much more already. But there are clearly a few less experienced posters on this thread. Hope this has helped some of you a bit on your journey to becoming a 'sophisticated investor'.

The link:

http://www.oznetlaw.net/subcategories.asp?...bcategoryid=336
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

And of course this is exactly why the share are currently suspended. Once brokers start talking to their clients, the info can not be controlled any more. Shares are suspended to ensure trading is not occuring while some investors know more than others.
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Guys, this is a very standard process. Most placements are to 'sophisticated investors' or institutions and are never announced until they are done. Nothing unusual in it at all. Many companies use convertible notes. Lots of them are traded on the ASX. I hold convertible notes and similar in a couple of companies.

"Sophisticated shareholder" normally means one with more than $2 million in investable assets, and often (not sure in this case), the minimum investment is fairly high. If they take investment from 'non sophisticated investors', they have to issue a prospectus which takes a long time and is very expensive.

Mangrove, I was given a redemption date of 31 Jan 09, which is a 3 year period, not the 5 as stated by you, but we are getting info from a similar source, so it could be either. Redemption is for cash and can only occur at the redemption date. Conversion is for shares which can be done at almost any time up to the conversion date.


  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: mangrove on Monday 23/01/06 11:37am

Come on Mangrove. Fess up. Where is the info on the convertable notes from?
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 12:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

Very lonely here. But I'm pretty happy. Up 100% in 4 weeks and for the moment, holding the gains.

Anyone out there biggrin.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 12:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: debono on Monday 23/01/06 12:05pm

Thanks debono. 100% in 4 weeks ain't real bad. Now I wish I'd bought more.

Sorry about the 'off topic' guys, but not much happening on FAR anyway.

NormC
  Forum: By Share Code

normc
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 11:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 653

In reply to: mks1 on Monday 23/01/06 11:32am

The takeover target stays listed and operates as normal. The only change may be that the buyer may demand or be offered seats on the Board depending on what their ownership % is and how friendly the takeover is. In the end, if they have enough ownership, they can force Board changes and take effective control.

If the ASX gets a notice of compulsory acquisition (which always follows 90% ownership), they would suspend shares from trading. The compulsory acquisition is at the last price the buyer paid.

So, if the buyer offers 20c per share, but doesn't get control. They might lift the offer to 25c. Everybody who has already sold to the buyer (not on market), must now also get the 25c, as does anyone whose shares are compulsorily acquired.

Anyone buying someone like FAR would have to pay a premium to market to succeed. I'd be surprised if they could get full ownership for less than 30c. But of course you can gain control with much less, often much less than 50%.

  Forum: By Share Code

4 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 >

Cant find what you are looking for? Show all active topics from the last 3 months


New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)



TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING