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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Jun 10 2021, 11:51 PM
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With the SPX flirting with new highs at a less than feverish pace recently, a breakout has been elusive. The index’s potential cup and handle pattern hasn’t changed much this week, but with the May CPI numbers now having been released, we’ll see if one side finally takes the reins.


A breakout potential has been a theme in many other areas, too. Some indices and ETFs have been trying to push to new highs (R2k, XLC, PJP), while others have been getting close to completing short-term bullish formations in the face of clear resistance (ARKK, XBI, TAN).

We take a look at a host of them below. Seeing which way these resolve will give us a clue about the broader market’s next direction and leadership, as well

20 minutes into us cash market opening bell, SPX had breakout, as index shoots up so fast......... tongue.gif

might see our market follow it up tomorrow when our cash market opens!! i do think asx200 is a lot bullish than other market....imho though!!

early birds
post Posted: Jun 10 2021, 08:50 AM
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Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 33,600

Key resistance: 34,800

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

The oldest US index has been on a tear since the COVID-driven trough last March, though prices have taken a bit of a breather over the past two months. The recent consolidation between support at 33,600 and 34,800 has alleviated the overbought condition in the RSI indicator and allowed the longer-term 200-day exponential moving average time to “catch up” with prices; in other words, the recent price action can be viewed as a healthy pause within the context of a longer-term uptrend. Now, traders will watch for a confirmed break above 34,800 to signal the next leg higher in the uptrend, with only a break below the 50-day EMA and horizontal support at 33,600 calling the bullish bias into question.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Sideways

Key support: 13,000

Key resistance: 14,500

Near-term technical bias: Neutral

Of all four indices we examine here, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is arguably the weakest from a technical perspective. Prices are trading above both the upward-trending 21- and 50-day EMAs, but only marginally, and the RSI indicator hasn’t hit “overbought” territory yet this year, indicating tepid buying pressure. After months of choppy, inconsistent trade, bulls will need to see a confirmed break above the year-to-date high at 14,050 to renew the longer-term bullish trend and open the door for a move toward 15,000 this year.

DAX (GE 30) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 15,500

Key resistance: 15,750

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

In contrast, Germany’s benchmark bourse is clearly in the strongest technical position of the major indices. The DAX set a fresh record high just last week and pulled back to bounce off previous-resistance-turned-support at 15,500 in today’s trade, signaling that the breakout is more likely legitimate. The RSI is not in overbought territory, signaling the potential for more upside in the short term as long as the key 15,500 level holds.

FTSE 100 (UK 100) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 6,800

Key resistance: 7,150

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

Looking at its chart, the UK’s FTSE 100 index is a middle-of-the-road amalgamation of the other indices we’ve examined so far. The medium-term trend is clearly still bullish, with prices holding above their upward-trending 21- and 50-day EMAs and the RSI indicator consolidating after touching overbought territory last month. As with the Dow, the month-to-date sideways consolidation should be viewed as a healthy development for the longer-term trend unless near-term support in the 7,000 is broken, whereas a strong breakout above 7,150 would strengthen the bullish case for a retest of record highs in the upper-7,000s later this year.

=================it is one of the many TA studies
DTOR as always !!

as for asx200- the index looks bullish , but keep eye on commodity , bit of smoke atm!!

early birds
post Posted: Jun 8 2021, 09:21 AM
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As the performance grid shows, the index has four bullish patterns at its back. A breakout through its 5/17 highs would produce an upside target of 4,420.
The Value Sectors’ outperformance last week produced a fresh new high for the SPX’s Cumulative Adv-Dec Line, a positive divergence.

chart of SPX still on the solid bullish case for the near term

asx200 is consolidating the major breakout , bullish as well!!

early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2021, 10:36 PM
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Nonfarm payrolls in May were expected to increase by 671,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

future popped up , because market expecting Fed to keep current extreme loosen monetary policy!! lmaosmiley.gif

money money money , keep printing , it's rich man's world!! ABBA lmaosmiley.gif

early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2021, 10:01 AM
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The SPX’s “quiet streak” of six straight moves of 25 bps or less could be threatened today given the early weakness.

Things surely have slowed in the second quarter, but not like we’ve seen recently. As noted last evening, this has been especially striking given the renewed interest in meme stocks.

We can choose to ignore the meme-stock wackiness, monstrous moves and acute reversals all we want, but not when they are affecting the broader indices. Needless to say, up to this point, they have NOT affected the broader indices

The same scenario played out in the very early stages of GME spiking in January. Eventually, of course, the SPX and others took a hit.

While the SPX is not extended from an RSI perspective right now, other areas have gotten short-term stretched. As noted last night, 27 ETFs we track up at least five straight days. Some sort of pause would not be a surprise.

think SPX will holds 4185 ---the short term support.. keep eye on it

ASX200 is bullish as ever, esp AUD DROPPED big time last night's session.

early birds
post Posted: Jun 3 2021, 08:46 AM
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Since 1928, the SPX has been higher in June 53/93 years (57% of the time), with an average move of +0.77%.
But those numbers are a bit skewed given that 8 of the top 10 happened between 1929 and 1955, and those were sizable up-moves.
The most recent big June advance occurred in 2019 (+6.89%).
Looking more closely, the SPX has advanced in June 11/20 years, with an average move of -0.6%. But it’s been a lot better lately, with the index having been higher in June five straight years starting in 2016.
The 20 Year track shows a jagged, but higher, first half… followed by a big dip late in the month… that has tended to mark a multi-month low. A key low was etched in June last year, too, of course.
With the SPX marginally higher in May, the index logged its fourth consecutive monthly advance. At least four straight monthly gains coming into June have happened only four prior times since 1992 (1995,1996, 2013 and 2014). The index was up in June three times (down in 2013).
On AVERAGE, the R2k has etched a bottom vs. the SPX in late May over the last 20 years, which has tended to last through June.
Over the last 20 years, VIX seasonality has displayed intra-month spikes after etching a low in May. Last June, the index shot higher by nearly 90% mid-month as the SPX cratered 5.9% on 6/10. It then dropped 54% through early August…

still bullish on SPX. from chart point of view, SPX gonna go higher, more likely. imho

as for asx200 it looks really bullish from the chart [as it clear the 7200 again] expecting it to march higher. tongue.gif


early birds
post Posted: May 26 2021, 10:04 AM
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Market bears were eager to point out that Monday’s 8.36 billion shares accompanied one of the broadest advances we’ve seen in weeks.
Looking more closely, volume fell off of a cliff after April 5th, just as the market was extending from that prior highly volatile, heavy volume, late-Feb to late-March trading period. During those few weeks, volume was STRONG on both up AND down days.

Since then, Volume has been LIGHT on both up and down days.

In fact, if we had let volume levels alone dictate the next move over the last two weeks, we would have been led down a wrong path. The highest volume days in May happened on 5/11 and 5/12. While those were part of an ultimate 4.4% drawdown, there was no downside follow through.

Instead, support held twice, as more backing and filling resulted. And yesterday, the SPX finished with its third highest closing price.

The longest uptrends are characterized by small moves, low volatility and low volume. The number of 1% moves have not disappeared, of course, but on a rolling 12-month basis, the number continues to drop. See chart below.


so bulls are winning for US market esp SPX.

for asx200

as i'm typing the future is over come 7100, could see short covering and buying from the bulls today. bias is long for today!!

post Posted: May 25 2021, 08:38 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 25 2021, 03:48 AM

Here are the market highlights:

  • AUD +0.3% to 77.54 US cents
  • Bitcoin on +15.7% to $US38,988.64
  • On Wall St: Dow +0.5% S&P 500 +1% Nasdaq +1.4%
  • In New York: BHP -0.4% Rio +0.1% Atlassian -0.5%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 +0.2% FTSE +0.5% CAC +04%
  • German markets were closed for a holiday
  • Spot gold +0.1% to $US1883.48/oz at 2.27pm New York time
  • Brent crude +3.2% to $US68.53 a barrel
  • US oil +3.8% to $US65.97 a barrel
  • Iron ore -4.1% to $US192.42 a tonne
  • 2-year yield: US 0.15% Australia 0.06%
  • 5-year yield: US 0.80% Australia 0.78%
  • 10-year yield: US 1.60% Australia 1.69% Germany -0.14%

"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: May 25 2021, 03:48 AM
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While traditional technical patterns have been snuffed out soon after “triggering” over the last few weeks in the SPX, we shouldn’t ignore how potentially powerful a boring trading range could be for the next move

There were four multi-week trading range breakouts in 2020 While they varied in length and height, they shared two key characteristics: 1. The initial breakout attempt failed. 2. The resultant low was tested and held, which helped prevent a topping pattern from triggering.

While we don’t know if the recent low near 4,056 was “the” low of this move, so far, the same type of behavior has repeated once again.

Both were part of a volatile few months (starting that May), with the index finally breaking out to new highs again in October. The recent back and forth movement since last September looks quite similar to 2019 in this sense. The missing link – a breakout that has legs…

SPX WENT ABOVE 4200 AS I'M TYPING. bulls seems winning........

early birds
post Posted: May 21 2021, 12:27 AM
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The SPX’s reversal yesterday came just as the index was about to test last week’s low. Under that point, there was (and still is) a lot of air down to the 3,990 area.

The SPX’s next step will be breaking above the recent downtrend line. And that line actually is part of a multi-week DOWNWARD sloping trading channel. And as of now, it looks similar to the prior downturns we’ve seen this year. Each was resolved to the upside, and each led to new highs, as well. See the chart below.

As noted yesterday, the intra-day TICK range of 3,365 was the third widest in history. Of the prior nine occasions, six times, a short-term low was etched soon thereafter. Three times, more volatility followed.


SPX rebounding as i typing, looks a good session for bulls!!


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