Registered Members Login:
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

25 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
Reply to this topic

2012-2020 US Debt clock runs out of numbers
post Posted: Oct 7 2013, 06:54 PM
  Quote Post

Posts: 12,991
Thanks: 1105

In Reply To: flower's post @ Aug 20 2013, 07:27 PM

Does Bernanke consider he has the answers with Quantative Easing--or will this prove to be that final tick of the Debt Clock?

Things are starting to look ominous, tonight's Bloomberg item enclosed:

"Anyone who remembers the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. little more than five years ago knows what a global financial disaster is. A U.S. government default, just weeks away if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling as it now threatens to do, will be an economic calamity like none the world has ever seen."

etc etc etc

Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Carsha  
post Posted: Aug 20 2013, 08:35 PM
  Quote Post

Posts: 3,898
Thanks: 1575

In Reply To: arty's post @ Aug 20 2013, 07:58 PM

First post by K1 in over 12 months and flower immediately pulls one of his old stunts by immediately "covering" it from general view on the pretence of making some inane comment. weirdsmiley.gif

For anyone new to sharescene in the last couple of years do yourselves a favour and scroll down a couple of posts, click on the link on kahuna1's post from today and try to distil the message and the logic behind the message. (Of course it is up to you whether you agree with his analysis).

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
post Posted: Aug 20 2013, 07:58 PM
  Quote Post

Posts: 13,078
Thanks: 3381

In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Aug 20 2013, 05:26 PM

Welcome back, Mark!

As you can see, you've been sorely missed, and your return - long may it last - is very much applauded.

Now, if we could persuade Admin to set up a blogsphere for your exclusive use, your contributions may remain visible for longer and not get buried under an avalanche of replies.

Until then, I'll bring my bookmark back to the fore and keep using it to check if I missed one of your gems smile.gif

I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Nick1970  
post Posted: Aug 20 2013, 07:27 PM
  Quote Post

Posts: 12,991
Thanks: 1105

In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Aug 20 2013, 05:26 PM

Does this mean we go down ? Does it mean we go down immediately ? Of course one
cannot answer this question and if one thing that 32 years in the markets have taught me
is how little one knows.

Does Bernanke consider he has the answers with Quantative Easing--or will this prove to be that final tick of the Debt Clock?

Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
post Posted: Aug 20 2013, 05:26 PM
  Quote Post

Posts: 2,893
Thanks: 3324


Its been some time.

Right here, right now the market is at a level which has me again wondering.
Whilst it is possible that it goes much further, the valuation is compared to peaks I
highlighted in 2000 and then again in 2007 and 2008 at extremes.

Does this mean we go down ? Does it mean we go down immediately ? Of course one
cannot answer this question and if one thing that 32 years in the markets have taught me
is how little one knows.

59. Free advice is seldom cheap - The Ferengi Rules of Acquisition

For me in RAW terms the market is around 70% over the value of where it should be.
It has happened in the past many times over the course of the last several hundred years
that it has gone higher and at times quite a lot higher. The most recent example of
extremes was the Japanese market in 1987-1991 and yes I was around for that. This
market was driven by an extreme real estate bubble as some may remember. In 2007 I
was very concerned about the US housing and asset bubble as many know. The simple
equation I use to estimate the size of these bubbles is the price of the average house and
that compared to the average main income earner in a region. When in 2007 I was talking
about this looking at the US there were many regions that were well over US$1milion for
the average house vs a ratio of over 15 times the single main income and 12 times a
family income.

House prices in cities vs the average overall are a little different as people in cities will
earn around 140-150% of the income of the overall average. This said, when you have say
an average which was adjusted for this and income of $75,000- and the average house
price in numerous US cities from San Fran to LA to Las Vegas and Miami at around $1.1
million the ratio of house price was at times up to 15 times the average family income
income. These were AVERAGE prices.

In a normal market and what I suppose is a fair price is around the 7 times sort of region
vs the SINGLE income or 5 times the Family income which is usually around 160% of the
single income with the wife or partner also working usually part time. Even accounting for
this the $100,000- family income of those in the US cities vs the average price of over $1-
million it was and is clearly a bubble. It was then and it was of a concern.

Right now there is a bubble, but the markets focus is NOT even on it and not sure if and
when it will get around to noticing it any time soon. I have spoken about this also many
times over the years. The point at which something could be done about it has come and
…. gone. This of course is the US government debt number.

With an election on here in Australia I notice some idiots are trying to focus on this and the
fact our debt has risen on the federal side by 250 billion. Lets be frank if that is a problem,
stop reading NOW. With a GDP in Australia of around 1,400 million this is a percentage of
our GDP of around 20%. In Australia, there are not the unaccounted nasties in the US
which DO NOT appear in the GDP or debt numbers such as the unaccounted US social
security system underfunded by around 44 trillion, or the Medicaid and Medicare which
even a conservative estimate is around 80 trillion.

Sadly there is a lot more !!! Open the PDF if your interested.

Take care Mark M

Attached File  August_2013_Opinion.pdf ( 212.48K ) Number of downloads: 77

All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: henrietta  jeeves  BobE  flower  arty  Nick1970  triage  stezz  myshares  mullokintyre  henry33  mjwk  
post Posted: Aug 25 2012, 01:59 PM
  Quote Post

Posts: 146
Thanks: 46

Chinese stockmarket back to March 2009 levels. I hadn't realised how much the ASX had diverged in the last few months, although with the data coming out of China of late its hardly surprising.

Our market has run up on the strength of the banks, industrials and anything with yield while the resource stocks have pulled against (although done better in the last month). It begs the question what drags us up further from here?

The market has been loving the QE tease from the Fed and ECB since Draghi's 'whatever it takes', but will reality disappoint or is it already factored in?
On the US side can Bernanke really initiate QE with the S&P at 4 year highs and ~10% off all time highs? Will slightly lower long term rates make all that much difference or could it just refuel commodity speculation? Higher food & gas prices won't be good for the US consumer.
Europe looks like a complete political mess. No doubt they will agree to some sort of bond purchase program that will band-aid things in the short term, but its hard to see it making much of a difference to the bigger fundamental problems.

Still long here, but thinking about handing the banks back next week.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Dave_vic_ozz  

post Posted: May 14 2012, 10:34 PM
  Quote Post

Posts: 834
Thanks: 98

I will just leave this here.

My comments reflect the moment in which they were posted.
Everything can change, and usually does, without notice.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: disco stu  stezz  cherryman  nipper  kahuna1  flower  
post Posted: May 8 2012, 08:38 PM
  Quote Post

Posts: 125
Thanks: 29

In Reply To: disco stu's post @ May 8 2012, 11:49 AM

Kahuna 1,

i have been a lurker on this site since Jan 04 and I have spent many a lunch time at work reading your posts.

Thank you, As an uninformed small fry it was great reading your perspective.
you will be missed and good luck in the furture, whatever it holds for you.

many thanks,


disco stu
post Posted: May 8 2012, 11:49 AM
  Quote Post

Posts: 739
Thanks: 221

In Reply To: wolverine's post @ May 8 2012, 11:01 AM

Sadly the serious sledging was allowed to run amok, I'm pretty sure K1 could have seen your tongue in cheek response - just appears SS is super sensitive atm.

Keep up your one liners, they hold more truth than the long winded crap I post half the time.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: kahuna1  
post Posted: May 8 2012, 11:01 AM
  Quote Post

Posts: 10,059
Thanks: 878

Since my post was firmly tongue in cheek and it has been moderated I wonder if this forum is being overly influenced by supersensitive, politically correct types of personalities?

If this forum isn't robust enough to take a range of opinions or heaven forbid a small joke then it makes one wonder how long it will be around.

If K took offense at my post then he is welcome to shoot me an email klcc at tpg dot com dot au and for that matter this is open to anyone else.



Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  kahuna1  crooky  Mungo  raauul  

25 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic

You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.