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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 2 2019, 08:37 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 2 2019, 08:29 PM

Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2019
By Samuel Potter and Jeremy Scott Diamond
2 January 2019

QUOTE
This is the reader’s digest of research notes for the year ahead. What follows is a compendium of more than 200 market themes, bets and threats from many of the biggest financial institutions in the world. Bloomberg has sifted dozens of notes and collated the top-line takeaways in one place, presented by macro theme, asset class or institution.


read the list here (if you have the time/inclination) - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-inv...nd=premium-asia



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 2 2019, 08:35 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 2 2019, 08:29 PM

I thought the whole point of black swans was the inherent unpredictability (I did read the whole article)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 2 2019, 08:29 PM
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What will hit markets in 2019? Here are my five 'black swans' for the year
By Matthew Lynn
QUOTE
London | Britain's departure from the European Union will turn into a chaotic mess. Trade tensions will escalate after US President Donald Trump fires off a few bonkers late-night tweets. A couple of high-street chains will go bust, an Italian bank will run into trouble and the EU will fine Facebook/Amazon/Apple five/10/20 billion euros (delete as applicable).

[b]There are plenty of things we already know will happen in 2019, but what are the real "black swans", the events no one is thinking about that will genuinely rock the markets in the next year[/b]?

Trump might hand over to his vice president, Daimler could merge with Volkswagen, Emmanuel Macron could launch a "parallel franc", the tech giants could start to consolidate, and the Greens could take power in Berlin.
read more - https://www.afr.com/opinion/what-will-hit-m...20190102-h19mat



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 29 2018, 07:55 PM
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No serious scientist would run a two-variable experiment. By that I mean, you run an experiment with one variable to see what happens. If you have two variables in your experiment and something either good or bad happens, you don’t know which variable was the cause. You first run the experiment with one variable, then do it again with the second one. After that, you have the knowledge to run an experiment with both of them.

The Federal Reserve is running a two-variable experiment without the benefit of ever having run a one-variable experiment to determine what the results would be. It is decidedly the stupidest monetary policy mistake in a long line of Fed mistakes.

(Like I said earlier, the gloves are off. This is my opinion. You may disagree.)

What are the two variables? They are raising interest rates (albeit slowly) and aggressively reducing their balance sheet. I think many of the problems we see in the market are results of this combination. They should do one or the other, not both.

Of these two, everybody wants to blame the last rate hike, but let’s look at the other variable.

While the Fed radically reduces its balance sheet, the European Central Bank is also ending its QE (quantitative easing), as are other central banks. They are taking away the market’s crack cocaine. Note also that all of the QE began to disappear worldwide toward the beginning of October. While I realize correlation is not causation, especially with only one data point, I find it suspicious that the markets turned volatile about that same time.
- John Mauldin

.... maybe, maybe not. He has a point, though



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Dec 27 2018, 07:20 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 27 2018, 07:45 AM

nip - JohnR at macrobusiness posted this link earlier today.

https://twitter.com/OddStats/status/1078033224801177607

It seems that yesterday's jump is in less than salubrious company. Also if the plunge protection team was to hit the market the day after Christmas would likely give them the biggest bang per buck possible (due to really low trading levels).

Let's see how things pan out when everyone is back at work.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 27 2018, 07:45 AM
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QUOTE
A happier mood among traders on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1000 points for the first time in a single session, rebounding after a bruising four-session sell-off put the blue-chip index and the S&P 500 on the brink of a bear market.

The powerful US bounce followed strong retail sales data, a soaring oil price and White House reassurances Fed chair Jerome Powell won’t be fired.

All 30 stocks in the Dow industrials notched gains, as did each of the 11 sectors in the broader S&P....

- and local SPI up 40 for the opening



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


nipper
post Posted: Dec 21 2018, 12:09 PM
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QUOTE
Jerome Powell .. would go on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet by $US50 billion ($70.5 billion) a month, even though the world economy is coming apart at the seams. Markets expected a rise in interest rates at Wednesday's meeting. But they did not expect the Fed's "dot plot" sketch to schedule two more rate rises in 2019. It is the double-barrelled nature of this tightening that makes it so potent, and so unpredictable for a global financial system that has racked up $US12.8 trillion of offshore dollar debt and has never been more leveraged to US borrowing costs.

The Fed undoubtedly has a superb staff but is wedded to a "new neoclassical synthesis" model with three blind spots:
- it misses global undercurrents;
- it ignores monetary data; and
- it fails to adjust for the Faustian costs of "intertemporal" robbery - stealing growth from the future, until it catches up with you.

European banks lack access to stable dollar deposits and rely on short-term funding from the wholesale capital markets to plug the gap, leaving them "particularly vulnerable to bouts of stress". The Stoxx 600 Banks index in Europe has crashed by 18 per cent over the last three months. The Fed is also raising the cost of global borrowing. Three-month Libor rates used to price $US9 trillion of contracts worldwide have doubled over the last year to 2.78 per cent.

The dollar shortage has led to a credit crunch in emerging markets. Turkey and Argentina buckled earlier this year. The trouble has since spread far and wide in Asia, Latin America, Africa and parts of the Middle East. JP Morgan's instant Nowcast tracker for the fourth quarter shows that both Brazil and Mexico are contracting.

The World Bank estimates that emerging markets make up 59 per cent of global GDP, up from 37 per cent in 1990. Much of this nexus is in the trough of a recessionary cycle. These countries are a big enough force to throw the world economy into a downturn. This is already hitting Germany and the eurozone through trade export channels. The risk for the US is that global strains eventually boomerang back into its own economy....

The European Central Bank's decision to halt QE as of this week may be just as important as anything the Fed is doing. This source of funding has been waning as the ECB tapers down to zero from a peak of €80 billion ($129 billion)a month.

The Bank of Japan has slashed its bond purchases in half.

All three of these indicators are issuing critical warnings, if only the Fed could see them... The Fed squeeze is hitting the world on two fronts at once. It is draining dollar liquidity and bleeding the offshore dollar funding markets in Europe and Asia.

....the net effect of the big three central banks hitting the brakes together is the most violent dive in global liquidity since the 2008 crisis..
Ambrose Evans -PritchardThe Telegraph , London



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: henrietta  
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 21 2018, 08:14 AM
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QUOTE
Australian stocks are set to edge lower amid an extended global sell-off, and in particular heavy, and volatile, selling on Wall Street.

Also denting sentiment, benchmark oil tumbled more than 4.5 per cent, dragging the US dollar lower too. Aluminium touched a 16-month low.

Despite the drop in Europe and further losses on Wall Street, ASX futures were down a modest 1 point to 5430 near 9am AEDT; they have traded in a range of 85 points overnight from a high of 5490 to a low of 5405. The Australian dollar edged higher.

Trading in New York was once again marked by massive swings with the Dow shedding near 680 points at its low. At 2.20pm, the Dow was 625 points lower; it had recouped near 400 points by 2.48pm before the selling resumed. At 3pm the Dow was down 408 points. At 3.08pm, the loss was 529 points. At 3.12pm the losses were pared to just 427 points. At 4pm, the Dow was 470 points lower. It ended the day down 464 points or 2 per cent lower.

The VIX - Wall Street's fear gauge, surged to its highest since February during the session. It ended 11 per cent higher; it now is up 158 per cent so far this year.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  lgrif  
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 20 2018, 08:04 AM
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US Fed raises rates
QUOTE
.... markets have become more volatile in recent months and financial conditions more generally have become tighter, and there are signs of "some softening" in the economy.... [b]ut none of that, Jerome Powell said, has "fundamentally altered the outlook".

Rather than three rate hikes in 2019, next year will see two, he said.

Clearly this isn't what markets - and presumably the president - want.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index ended down after a wild afternoon of swings. The benchmark was up more than 350 points ahead of the Fed statement; it ended down 352 points.


- and now what?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 18 2018, 01:04 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 18 2018, 09:50 AM

Interesting chart
QUOTE
There are some BIG names in bear territory right now.

And the list of bear-market stocks keeps growing every day, as the Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, -2.11% , the S&P 500 SPX, -2.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.27% mark their worst start to December trading since 1980.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-b...17?link=sfmw_tw
Attached File  MW_HA526_bear_t_20181217190702_NS.jpg ( 415.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


Meanwhile Hedgeye's bull has taken to the "drink"

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Dup8_m0WwAAqPsJ.jpg ( 73.32K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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