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melua
Posted on: Oct 9 2018, 01:22 PM


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In addition to receiving $431K in options exercise monies.

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melua
Posted on: Oct 7 2018, 08:39 AM


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Still a very big gap in valuations between TTT and A3D. I'd expect market inefficiency to be in play for a while (as it normally is) but I would expect A3D to keep rising now they have proved their ground breaking technology as the valuation of $60M is ridiculously low. In my opinion, what happens to TTT is dependent on real contracts being signed that justify the $230M valuation. I'm interested in seeing how TTT plan to get their parts certified as fit for purpose. Nothing announced on that front yet. DNVGL have an MOU with A3D to certify parts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNV_GL
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melua
Posted on: Sep 29 2018, 12:07 PM


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Less is more. Their response was perfect.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 20 2018, 06:10 PM


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Illiquidity is great on the way up but hurts on the way down. Running out of cash too. Looks sick.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 20 2018, 04:25 PM


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$3.7M as at June 30.

Tax rebate due this half. Circa $1M to $1.5M going by last year. Call it $1M conservatively.

Options exercise to bring in $2M prior to Dec 31.

That's $6.7M taking cash receipts as zero.

The've got enough cash for 9 months from July 1 IMO. That takes them to March 31, 2019.

Timeline for 2018 remains on track according to ASX quarterly commentary.

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melua
Posted on: Aug 20 2018, 04:19 PM


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Looks to have bottomed at 39c IMO. Escrow ending scared a lot of people. Since escrow ended the market depth has actually improved. Hasn't looked this healthy for a long time on the depth.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 20 2018, 04:17 PM


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TTT were in a honeymoon phase that some tech stocks can have. A3D had the same in 2016/17. Reality then sets in.
TTT at some stage needs to justify the lofty market cap. Otherwise they will suffer the same fate imo.

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melua
Posted on: Aug 20 2018, 01:40 PM


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Hi blacksheep. Gap almost filled. Reality is it's still got nearly a $300M market cap now. Revenues last qtr = 0. Last update said "exponential revenue growth in 2019", What's "exponential" from zero though?
What revenue (not profits) in 2019 would justify $300M valuation?
Meanwhile A3D looking sick at a sub $30M valuation. 1/10th TTT.
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melua
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 09:55 AM


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Coming up to escrow release of 32M shares in mid August. David Budge holds 24M of them. Liquidity is very poor so I can't see how any escrowed holders could sell any volume without smashing the price. That's assuming any escrowed holders actually want to sell stock near the lows.

Additive now is an interesting JV between Admission Digital (Worley Parsons) and Aurora Labs.

www.additivenow.com
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melua
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 09:51 AM


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The TTT chart is looking almost identical to the A3D chart in 2016. Which way will it go over the next 12 months?
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melua
Posted on: Mar 21 2018, 06:10 PM


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Yeah next to Chris Wanless. Not sure what they have been thinking. Very poor.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 20 2018, 03:45 PM


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Terrible decision by management not to raise capital earlier. Very poor indeed.
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melua
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 05:42 AM


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It will be interesting to see the first assays. If they are only average then there will be downside movement given the market cap is already at $200M. However, really good assay results could see this power on towards $3 and beyond.
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melua
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 06:13 AM


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It sure is a long way back.
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melua
Posted on: Nov 15 2017, 08:01 PM


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A3D +47% and no news biggrin.gif
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melua
Posted on: Nov 11 2017, 01:37 PM


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Worley Parsons did not sign a binding agreement to make figurines. They design mining projects. The small format printer is capable of printing intricate small parts but the real upside has always been about disruption to traditional manufacturing on a large scale with the LFP.
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melua
Posted on: Nov 11 2017, 06:59 AM


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https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/aurora-...-bureau-124029/

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melua
Posted on: Nov 7 2017, 11:34 AM


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Binding term sheet with Worley Parsons gives it a huge credibility tick. The upward journey starts again....hopefully.
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melua
Posted on: Oct 30 2017, 10:15 PM


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Punters often over do it on the up and the down. Par for the course in spec land.
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melua
Posted on: Oct 27 2017, 02:26 PM


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Company over-promised and under-delivered to date on time lines therefore the share price has been slaughtered.
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melua
Posted on: Oct 24 2017, 08:16 PM


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The charts you are posting are excellent blacksheep.
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melua
Posted on: Oct 23 2017, 08:42 AM


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AL8 has appointed Frank "Bruno" Hegner as an executive director. Ex Rio Tinto.
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melua
Posted on: Oct 22 2017, 11:06 PM


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Perhaps Mr Smith wasn't up to the task ahead? I'll be interested to see who the replacement is.
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melua
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 01:06 PM


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Did we see a double bottom on the chart?
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melua
Posted on: Sep 13 2017, 01:24 PM


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The current drilling program hasn't yet started. The targets are massive though. Each investor should weigh up the risk/reward scenarios for themselves.
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melua
Posted on: Sep 13 2017, 08:55 AM


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From someone close to the action:

"Can someone please explain how and why if the historical drill results were so good, how did Tolga and company pick it up for such a cheap price.??????????"

As far as I know, wasn't Tolga and company, was pretty much just Tolga. The directors who had mostly self funded started shopping it around and didn't get much interest until they got to BW Equities and Tolga just happened to be there at the time and recognised the potential. Ofc he didn't simply give them a blank cheque based on a powerpoint presentation. Did his due diligence, visited the project (think i posted a photo couple weeks back)...did the hard yards.

Everyone else had to rely on getting an allocation on IPO. Luckily I'm one of those people that doesn't spread himself thin across various brokers and stick to BW Equities (and comsec for free IRESS lol), so managed to get a decent slice of the IPO pie.

"How does a stock with excellent historical results and being a porphyry deposit list for a $40 million market cap."

They can either take the very hard route, and probably doomed to fail, by trying to list it at a value that assumes exploration success. Using this approach, unlikely any broker would be interested and they may never have got the required spread. I as an investor definitely wouldn't have applied for any shares. Result of a potentially unsuccessful listing attempt would be disastrous, ie no successful listing = no money = having to give up the project or doing another round of very cheap seed (diluting the directors) and having to wait another extended period of time to try and list again...probably using the 'easier route' anyway as below.

Or take the easier route and list it at a value more appropriate for an exploration play knowing that eventually it will get rerated by the market to a much higher value anyway as long as the exploration results stack up. With such a good project, result...successfully listed and away we go.

"Why did the previous owners let it go so cheap?"

Don't worry, they get their slice of the pie (a royalty) when it gets into production. This was actually covered off in detail last night at hte MMC preso by Chris Wanless, including the extensive and exhaustive process that they had to undertake to get this all together and why it had never been successfully done by one company before, though attempts were made, including by Kennecott (Rio) themselves!

"Why did the previous owners not mine the deposit?"

The answer is in your question...'owners' ie more than one...in fact much more than one. I expect none of them have a clue about mining. And the likelihood they could collaborate pretty much zilch.

Cdchi1
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melua
Posted on: Sep 13 2017, 07:26 AM


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https://www.fool.com.au/2017/09/12/why-the-...ime-high-today/

The author states: "I feel very confident Alderan has a world-class asset on its hands, but for me it is still a touch too soon to make an investment."



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melua
Posted on: Sep 13 2017, 07:12 AM


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The land holdings were fragmented for decades. Alderan founders have been negotiating for years to consolidate all the holdings under one umbrella. The drilling will ultimately determine fair value.
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melua
Posted on: Sep 12 2017, 02:50 PM


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Attended the AL8 lunch presentation today. Left the lunch and bought a few more. Those copper targets are mindboggling in size. They plan to run multiple drill rigs for the next two years. Weather in Utah is ok to drill all year round. The outcropping hanging walls with visible copper are not something you see often.
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melua
Posted on: Sep 11 2017, 01:51 PM


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Attending the Alderan presentation in Melbourne tomorrow. Then looking forward to survey results. Stock is starting another climb currently up 18% at $1.57.
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melua
Posted on: Sep 8 2017, 02:45 PM


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This shell looks like it's about to come alive. Great copper deal being vended in. 1.3c is cheap.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 24 2017, 08:40 PM


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It's still cheap IMO. Got in at IPO then topped up on market as price rose.
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melua
Posted on: Jul 17 2017, 10:09 AM


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No idea sorry.
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melua
Posted on: Jul 14 2017, 09:43 PM


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Not all his shares are escrowed. He has 1M shares unescrowed.
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melua
Posted on: May 5 2017, 11:50 AM


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"Deep slump" is still +650% in 9 months from IPO.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 27 2017, 03:43 PM


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Quite brutal.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 10 2017, 03:42 PM


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They are booked to exhibit at a 3D printing conference in New York mid-March as per this link.

http://inside3dprinting.com/new-york/2017/

Scroll down and you can see Aurora Labs listed as an exhibitor.

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melua
Posted on: Dec 23 2016, 11:53 PM


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https://thewest.com.au/business/startup/aur...g-ng-b88337992z

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melua
Posted on: Nov 26 2016, 11:32 AM


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https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/3332...nt-money/#page1

Christmas has come early for David Budge. The founder, chief executive and major shareholder of metal 3-D printing company Aurora Labs has seen the value of his small tech outfit jump 1150 per cent since listing on the Australian Securities Exchange in August.

It is the type of share price movement that small cap companies dream of — and for Mr Budge, it is a big pay day.

The Aurora boss owns 43.5 per cent of the company, taking his personal wealth to $59.9 million yesterday. His holding was worth $4.8 million in August.

Speaking toWestBusiness from the company’s Bibra Lake base, Mr Budge said he was as surprised as anyone.

“But in saying that, from our perspective we’re still cheap considering where we want to go and what we want to do,” he said.

“In terms of my holding, it is paper money ... but then again I had a friend say to me the other day ‘Paper money is better than no money’, and I guess that’s true.”

Aurora is creating two types of metal 3-D printers which it claims are world-firsts. Mr Budge said its large-scale printer, which is in prototype stage, is expected to hit the market in 12 months. Its baby brother will be ready in six months.

Yesterday, the company consolidated its recent rise, jumping a further 50¢ to finish the day at $2.50, valuing it at $137.5 million.

Mr Budge believed yesterday’s rise could be attributed, in part, to a blog post on the company by financial journalist Alan Kohler, released on Thursday night.

The major spike, which gathered pace late last month, was because of an investor roadshow in Melbourne.

He was coy about takeover offers, saying the company “has a lot more work to do, and a lot more value to create” before it took any offer seriously.

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melua
Posted on: Nov 26 2016, 11:09 AM


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Trading halt until Wednesday.
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melua
Posted on: Nov 26 2016, 06:38 AM


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Interesting interview at www.theconstantinvestor.com

Podcast dated Nov 24

Alan Kohler interviews A3D MD David Budge.
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melua
Posted on: Oct 28 2016, 08:22 PM


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Was it/Is it technically bullish?
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melua
Posted on: Oct 28 2016, 04:35 PM


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A3D Quarterly Report due Monday. Not many sellers offering stock. Closed $1.24
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melua
Posted on: Oct 23 2016, 07:16 AM


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Beta testing progressing very well. On track for commercial production end of 2016.

http://auroralabs3d.com/project/improved-3...n-beta-testing/

http://auroralabs3d.com/project/improvemen...-print-testing/
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melua
Posted on: Sep 9 2016, 05:10 PM


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Solid week. Back up to $1.135 Any decent news and who knows where the price will be?
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melua
Posted on: Aug 26 2016, 02:16 PM


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Well well. Down to 75c this morning. Interesting. Almost a 50% retrace from the $1.48 high.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 24 2016, 05:14 PM


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Sharp correction from the $1.28 close on Monday down to a low of 90c today and closed at $1.01. It was a pretty steep, quick ascent from IPO Day 1 so a decent correction is probably healthy. I think it can form a base around 90c-$1. I bought some at 92c today. Just looked like it was finding support around there.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 24 2016, 11:57 AM


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I don't believe T3D manufactures printers. they certainly don't manufacture or sell metal printers, rather plastics/polymers etc for AFL figurines/gadgets etc. They are really targeting the hobbyist market whereas A3D are targeting additive manufacturing. Chalk and cheese as you say. Completely different companies in completely different markets.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 22 2016, 11:24 AM


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Nice update by the company this morning. Market likes it so far.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 20 2016, 07:58 AM


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A great start to life as a public company for Aurora Labs. 20c IPO closing the end of the week at 94c is a fantastic result. The volume is quite reasonable too. I thought the volume would be a bit less to be honest but it's a very good sign that it's churning through reasonable volume and the price keeps rising. You can't ask for much more than four green days in a row for a new IPO.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 18 2016, 02:21 PM


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BOTs appeared in the mid 80s so instos now accumulating IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 17 2016, 11:34 AM


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Looking solid again today. Register tightening up even more I would suspect.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 17 2016, 01:32 AM


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Best opening price percentage gain for any IPO in 2016. It's only day 1. I personally think this has a very big future and at 50c the valuation is still small. Time will tell but I'm comfortable holding for the long term.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 14 2016, 07:30 AM


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http://www.pressreader.com/australia/the-w...281994671886709

Article in The West Australian yesterday.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 14 2016, 07:26 AM


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http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160812/pdf/4398n87t70vwzx.pdf

Commences trading on the ASX at 12:30pm AEST Tuesday, August 16.
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melua
Posted on: Aug 9 2016, 09:54 AM


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Nah. ASX still haven't confirmed a listing date. They move slowly at the ASX. biggrin.gif
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melua
Posted on: Jul 30 2016, 09:12 AM


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Proposed listing date now Aug 9 (subject to ASX)
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melua
Posted on: Jul 25 2016, 02:02 PM


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Aurora Labs (A3D)

It's speculative because it's very early pre-revenue stage but they are targeting a very large market so significant upside IMO if they tick the boxes over the next 12 months.

55M shares @ 20c giving an IPO valuation of $11M
Enterprise Value only $8M
Highly disruptive, patented ground breaking technologies in 3D metal printing
Attracting interest from Tier 1 companies like Alcoa, Airbus, NASA, Siemens (see first link below)
Targeting US3.8 trillion dollar metal manufacturing market (Metal Manufacturing Global Report 2016)
Only raising $2.8M (offer closed early)
Commercial production and sales of SFPs (small format printers) targeted by December 2016
No need for large capital injection now. Hoping to be cash flow positive by Dec 2016.
Prototypes for medium and large format printers currently being built
LFP designed to print metal parts 100X faster than currently available
LFP designed to print one tonne metal parts in 24 hours
Co-founder David Budge retaining 44% at IPO
No sell down by management and four directors purchasing IPO shares (refer prospectus P94)
Already pre-sold 31 SFPs (Refer P5 of prospectus)
Around 70% of shares escrowed for between 12-24 months
UWA Professor Tim Sercombe states Aurora Labs is at the forefront of 3D printing globally (refer article below)

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/2941...er-maker/#page1

http://www.emi.uwa.edu.au/news/uwa-working...nal-3d-printing
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melua
Posted on: Jul 6 2016, 09:05 AM


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A better outcome now with a Chinese cornerstone investor taking up to 19.9%.
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melua
Posted on: Jul 2 2016, 10:22 AM


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Looks like a $13M raise at 6c to recap TON by Perth Inc. However, the Grafex contingent liability of circa AUD$8M remains on the books. At least all shareholders will be given the opportunity to trump up more cash at 6c so as not to be diluted.Interesting times ahead. This could take a while to sort out as they have to issue a full prospectus and go through the ASX/ASIC hurdles. Any rebirth seems to be towards the end of calendar 2016 IMO.
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melua
Posted on: May 23 2016, 08:36 AM


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Eased back to the 60c which is not surprising given the quick run up to $1 from 20c. Let's see where this settles.
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melua
Posted on: May 19 2016, 12:20 PM


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A search revealed that the current directors of Grafex are Greg Sheffield, Bradley Boyle and Paige Exley. The plot thickens!
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melua
Posted on: May 10 2016, 03:16 PM


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Recent IPO that has rocketed from 20c to $1.01 in a few weeks and now sitting around 87c. Agriculture stocks are in high demand and this one is an agri hybrid in a sense. I'm happy to hold for at least the next six months and re-evaluate towards the end of 2016.
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melua
Posted on: May 5 2016, 11:01 AM


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Can anyone shed light on when TON announced they had been issued shares in Grafex? Why wouldn't TON have appointed a director to the Grafex board? If you own 80% of a company, you make sure you have board representation. The plot thickens.
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melua
Posted on: May 4 2016, 10:09 PM


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Does TON actually own shares in Grafex? Don't tell me this is another Intrepid (IAU). ohmy.gif
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melua
Posted on: Apr 30 2016, 06:01 PM


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Certainly looking stronger.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 27 2016, 04:31 AM


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As at March 31:

Cash $325K
Cash burn expected for 3 months Apr 1 - Jun 30: $440K (including a loan repayment of $296K).

Obviously the company will be required to raise capital in the next month or two.

At 2c, QUR is valued at $4M. That seems expensive in light of the above.



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melua
Posted on: Apr 22 2016, 04:19 PM


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Classic pump and dump. All they announced was an OPTION to buy tenements. Hopeful that lithium is there. blink.gif Talk about getting on the latest "hot stock" bandwagon. Looked like an ideal pump for stale long termers to dump!
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melua
Posted on: Apr 22 2016, 10:27 AM


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Big chance the insiders are selling. No way this is worth more than 3c...... and yes I am out.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 18 2016, 11:28 AM


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The following was posted on another forum:

Billym1978: "I wonder when they will consider it appropriate to announce to the market that there was a judgement made against the company last Monday.........."

Be interesting to see how much the judgement was for?
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melua
Posted on: Apr 18 2016, 09:45 AM


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Logi Tag deal officially dead.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 16 2016, 09:28 AM


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TON has a future if it can be re-capitalised. Personally I would "trade it" if it comes back as I did in the past on a few occasions. Trading has it's place. I never used to trade and then a very smart elderly investor told me many years ago that it is wise to always take some profits off the table when there are large profits there. The REAL big money is definitely made in buying high volume at low prices and holding but the caveat is the company must have potential to go up at least 10X if not 100X. The elderly investor gave me simple advice. If the story has multi bagger potential then hold 90% for the long term (not to be touched) and keep a 10% trading parcel.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 15 2016, 09:57 AM


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No. I'd like to know more details about the court case in Victoria and also wait to see what happens with LogiTag. In my opinion, it's too risky at 2c if LogiTag doesn't proceed.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 14 2016, 10:24 AM


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Syrah (at $1bn valuation) is too risky as an investment now for me. There are huge challenges ahead for any company planning to mine in Mozambique.
With TON, I think quite a few people over the road are "hoping" more than anything. The fact is there are already 420M shares on issue, the company is in administration and the "best" prospect is Ancuabe (a potential small boutique operation) if they survive the administration process. They also have a complex deal with Grafex that needs too be untangled and sorted out once and for all.
Going forward, TON's profit share of Ancuabe is not going to even cover ongoing fixed costs i.e.. salaries etc in my opinion.

You rightly point out there is more drilling required. That also has to be paid for.

TON needs a gullible white knight with truckloads of money. The alternative is a black knight who comes in with truckloads of money at shell value.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 12 2016, 08:49 PM


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Re page 4 of this presentation.

Plot Ancuabe at 4% grade on this chart and let me know if you think it is one of the world's top graphite deposits.You can talk about Kenmare flake, flake size bla bla bla. Ancuabe is the best TON has but it's not that great.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160322/pdf/4360dkxynlydky.pdf

Premium flake is still going to be very expensive to mine when you have to process 4 times as much ore as say Syrah.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 8 2016, 10:18 AM


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Back on the boards and an official announcement that the Logi Tag deal is in doubt. Looks like they couldn't raise the $6M. That's my take on it. What price could they raise say $3M at?

Total shares on issue = 168M (including unlisted shares but excluding 32M options).

Net cash as at Dec 31, 2015 = $500K
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melua
Posted on: Apr 7 2016, 10:50 AM


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"I mean a substantial holder has participated in the rights issue and now has decided to liquidate the lot.
Seriously, you think this is really normal?"


It certainly raises eyebrows. Maybe the holder started to get itchy feet because of all the delays?? Only guessing.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 7 2016, 10:38 AM


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Hi Valin,

Something is not right in my opinion. My gut feeling is that the Logi Tag deal has hit a snag. Lack of prospectus, no mention recently of how they are going to raise the $6M (remember it was initially $10M?). I wouldn't have a clue as to what is going on but it certainly has a bad feeling about it.
If the deal falls over, the stock will go back to where it was as a shell..... circa 2c (post reconstruction).
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melua
Posted on: Apr 7 2016, 09:29 AM


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Was supposed to be out of suspension before commencement of trading yesterday and no reason announced as to why it did not resume trading.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 6 2016, 08:26 AM


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It appears as though the problem is Grafex. If they get around that and then find a group to recapitalise the company, they have a chance. Long term there is still a LOT of money that needs to be raised if they are to start production. I understand there are a couple of interested buyers of the asset (once Grafex is sorted) but really is the resource that good that someone would consider pumping millions into this again?

No one will debt fund a graphite project in Africa IMO. SYR proved this. It had first mover advantage and has the largest graphite reserve on the planet yet they raised $200M via equity rather than debt.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 6 2016, 08:21 AM


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Hi herring,

1. Management "spin"
2. No insto support for TON and tiny fickle insto support for BCC.
3. Total financial mis-management (BCC ended up in liquidation whilst TON is in VA but one step closer to liquidation).
4. Lack of strength in the Top 20 list (refer Point 2).
5. Capital raising at lower and lower prices
6. "Finance facilities" which never end up being used because of their toxicity
7. Over promise/ under deliver
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melua
Posted on: Apr 5 2016, 08:33 AM


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King Louie needs to take a long hard look at himself. He wrote a great post basically admitting he has been totally wrong on TON and he apologised for perhaps influencing people to buy TON. However, he has a very short memory and is already back posting ramped up inferences that somehow try and link TON with Tesla and future demand for graphite. KL has obviously learnt nothing.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 3 2016, 10:31 AM


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The VA reports on the process to move forward with assets sales to satisfy creditors. TON shareholders future comes down to how much is realised for said asset sales and what "assets" will remain. The problem is that Grafex are the holder of the assets and TON merely has a share of Grafex. How much of Grafex they own is debatable.
This is a similar situation to Intrepid (IAU) where IAU owned a share in an Indonesian company who waited until IAU had spent $100M in proving up one of the largest copper/gold deposits on the planet before sending in armed rebels to remove all IAU staff.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-...1218-2bm4w.html

Not saying it's the same as TON with regards to the stealing of the asset but perhaps similar crap because of ownership of a local entity who actually controls the asset? IAU ended up owning nothing. I hope it's not the same with TON.

"Intrepid lost control of the project in July when its joint venture partners - an Indonesian couple Maya Ambarsari and Reza Nazaruddin – seized the site and ordered Intrepid workers to evacuate.

In last night’s dramatic press release, Intrepid claims Maya and Reza have been working in cahoots with powerful businessmen Edwin Soeryadjaya and Garibaldi Thohir, hedge funds Provident Capital and Quantum Pacific Capital, two Singapore stockbrokers and Australian entrepreneur Paul Willis to hoodwink the company and wrest control of the 25 million ounce gold project......"


Intrepid never recovered. $2 a share became 10c and it's battled along since then.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 2 2016, 08:21 PM


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Yes I agree...... and "down-ramping" is actually being negative with nothing of substance to back it up. If you back up a negative opinion with valid reasoning then it's merely an informed opinion rather than "down-ramping". A lot of posters seem to think "any negativity = down ramping".
Human nature is that we don't want to hear a view that we don't agree with especially if it puts into question an investment decision we have made. It's very dangerous financially. I welcome informed negative opinions on stocks I hold as it has the potential to alert me to risks I may have over-looked.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 2 2016, 09:45 AM


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CHK has gone real quiet. Calm before the storm or nothing in the pipeline? Who knows? Purely a spec punt IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 2 2016, 09:38 AM


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The private message function is good but sometimes it doesn't alert you to new messages (especially if someone is replying to an existing topic in a message). I now make sure I always check my message box regularly.

It will be interesting to see what sort of price TON receives for its assets in this process.

Also, any extravagant offtakes with Chinese companies are to be treated with contempt IMO. There's a tip worth keeping in mind for the future. Binding offtakes with the Chinese never seem to be very binding!
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melua
Posted on: Apr 2 2016, 09:10 AM


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TON was an almost identical situation to BCC (just a different commodity).
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melua
Posted on: Apr 1 2016, 11:05 PM


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There is a useful private messaging function on this site as well which was lacking over the road. I feel the quality of content here is superior to over the road. Far less ramping, toot toot etc.
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melua
Posted on: Apr 1 2016, 10:44 PM


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Hi golfgirl/sharls,

I was suspended over the road a few years ago over a stock called Buccaneer (BCC). I was adamant it would end up in liquidation and posted same whilst all the rah rahs were calling it a multi billion dollar company in the making. To cut a long story short, the moderators got sick of handling all the TOUs from pro BCC holders accusing me of "down-ramping". lol I just posted the truth and people sometimes don't like the truth. The truth can hurt. the moderation at the time was a lot stricter than these days. I was restricted to one post a day on BCC and made a mistake one day and broke the "rule". I copped 7 days and eventually got suspended for life. i am still able to read posts (as are all suspended members). I just cannot post.
I'm no "heavy hitter" but certainly have been around the stock market for a long time. Nothing much surprises me these days having lived through the bull run prior to 87 and then experiencing the crash in October 1987 that destroyed my portfolio. Live and learn by the mistakes you make. Everyone needs a good hiding at least once in their life.
I'm not particularly anti-TON as such apart from a long term financial investment point of view. I have some friends in TON (they ignored my opinion and that's fair enough). I made good money in TON trading it. I did warn people a long time ago that TON had no into support and this would remain the case whilst previous management was still there. There is a saying in the resource market from many decades ago that still rings true: POOR MANAGEMENT WILL KILL A GREAT RESOURCE. I'm not saying in this instance TON has a great resource. It's a good one but not a great one. Unfortunately, in VA, it's not worth much at all.

A poster messaged me when TON was 60c. He asked for my honest opinion on where I thought the share price would be in a year. My reply was "sub 10c". I don't think he was expecting that reply. He declared me insane and I have never heard from him since. LOL

I am in no way associated with the wolves. I have never met them. I have no ulterior motive. I have a passion for the stock market and for 30 years have followed the mining sector fairly closely. I am not currently invested in any graphite stocks. That doesn't mean I am not interested though and as this is a public forum, I enjoy making commentary on various stocks from time to time. I make mistakes like all investors.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 30 2016, 09:44 AM


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Seriously, how do u raise $30 million for a Mozambique mineral explorer that is in voluntary administration? There isn't a fund on the planet that would be interested in that, let alone at 10c per share when the last traded price before VA was 6c.

If this is to be re-capped, it will be done at shell value IMO. Circa 0.001c.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 30 2016, 08:18 AM


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jaded: "Let's assume say 700mil share Register exists by Capex raising say $30mil. At 20cents that's a $140mil MC"

There are currently 420M shares on issue. His "logic" above indicates issuing circa 300M shares for 10c each to raise $30M. Dreaming.

His reports from full services brokers regarding the proposed JV with GK is almost correct. He states the rumour is 90/10 in favour of GK. I am hearing 95%/5%.

If TON end up with 5% of a boutique graphite operation producing 20,000 tonnes of concentrate per annum, TON's share would be 1000 tonnes. At a gross profit margin of say $200 per tonne, that will not be enough to cover corporate/admin expenses. Even 10% will fall short.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 29 2016, 03:51 PM


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When I say no surprise, I mean that he is not connected to any of the directors of QUR so perhaps he just decided to take profits?
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melua
Posted on: Mar 28 2016, 09:30 PM


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The CGT liability is the major problem as I understand. Grafex made a substantial capital gain on the sale of the tenements to TON. Under Mozambique law, if the vendor doesn't pay the CGT, the liability transfers to the buyer (in this case TON). It appears as though Grafex have refused to pay the CGT so therefore TON are liable in law to pay the CGT.

I'm assuming TON refused to pay the required amount to go to 90% ownership when it became evident Grafex were not going to pay the CGT to the Mozambique Govt. This whole fiasco is a mess.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 26 2016, 08:11 AM


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They might be claiming the entire lease period. BB may have locked in a 10 year tenancy. Who knows?
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melua
Posted on: Mar 24 2016, 09:03 PM


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Andrew Donnelly sold out. No surprise there.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 24 2016, 08:28 PM


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Yep, I agree and said as much in a previous post. Grafex will end up with the tenement IMO and we will probably see a rinse and repeat in a decade or so. Grafex made millions out of this and are still owed US$10M!

$404,000 in unpaid rent on the Claremont premises. The level of incompetence is almost unbelievable. I mean seriously, what ASX listed company doesn't bother to pay it's rent?

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melua
Posted on: Mar 24 2016, 06:54 PM


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duplicate post
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melua
Posted on: Mar 24 2016, 06:54 PM


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http://www.ferrierhodgson.com/au/~/media/F...20Creditors.pdf

They owe US$10.2M ($13M AUD) to Grafex and they also haven't even paid their rent on the Perth premises to Zena Nominees. Mitchell Drilling also owed. Debt is probably going to be well in excess of $15M.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 23 2016, 09:09 AM


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Fair enough. Looks like ASX has released a price query and it's a major shareholder who decided to sell.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 22 2016, 09:55 PM


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I understand your point though. There is still a large risk in this stock in that they may not be able to raise the $6M at a reasonable price. If they can get it done then 4c is cheap. Time will tell.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 22 2016, 09:12 PM


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If you thought 5c was good buying, then 3.5c is even better! 30% cheaper.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 22 2016, 07:13 PM


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Only a 4.7% drop in price. I wouldn't think that would justify a please explain from the ASX.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 22 2016, 12:01 PM


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If the deal goes ahead it's dirt cheap. If it doesn't go ahead I've done my dough!
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melua
Posted on: Mar 22 2016, 11:35 AM


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and someone also wants in!......I bought at 3.5c and again at 3.7c.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 20 2016, 05:52 AM


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salts: "JORC resource due within two weeks. Market Cap $10M (TON $75M, SYR $705M). If these guys can pull a resource even at 50% of what TON have should see 3-4x increase."

Valuations don't work like that. SYR's first mover advantage has basically killed all other graphite companies' chances. How are these smaller companies going to finance a plant?
SYR are now at $1B valuation and TON is in voluntary administration with current equity worth zero.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 20 2016, 05:39 AM


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PD1 Posted the following:

"Hi @Milanese68

This is a potential $5.5m problem;

Taxation and compliance risk

On 1 January 2015, a Mozambique capital gains tax regime applicable to the mining sector came into force. According to this regime, the tax in relation to a capital gain on the transfer of mining rights located in the Mozambique territory by non-residents is payable by the seller. In relation to this payment, the seller, the buyer or the entity holding the mining rights have joint and several liability for the payment of tax in Mozambique. Accordingly a tax provision of $1.8 million has been recognised at 30 June 2015 for the part consideration paid during the period to 30 June 2015 in relation to its graphite project located in Mozambique. The Company has increased this provision to $2.15 million as at 31 October 2015.

There is some uncertainty as to whether the capital gains tax regime is applicable prior to 1 January 2015. Management are working with the Mozambique government, tax and legal advisors to determine the extent of the joint and several liability in relation to consideration paid for an interest in the project prior to 2015. Due to the uncertainty of the amount payable a tax provision has not been recognised for a liability which may be as high as approximately $5.5 million, if unpaid by the seller. The primary obligation to pay the capital gains tax is vendor’s and accordingly, any capital gains tax paid by the minority shareholders of Grafex Limitada will reduce the joint and several capital gains tax liability.

Tax on dividends and other income payable to the Company from third parties in Mozambique and PRC may be withheld at its source in accordance with the tax laws of those countries. Such dividends and other income may not be assessable income and not exempt income under Australian tax laws. There may be changes in withholding tax requirements in relation to dividends and other income in Mozambique and PRC which may affect returns to Shareholders.
"

This is why I have said that the liabilities for TON may be as high as $10M. I have heard that Mitchell Drilling have not been paid for many months. Then add Brad Boyle's termination payment and all other minor creditors. Under Mozambique tax law if Grafex do not pay the CGT on the sale of the tenements, then the liability transfers to the buyer.....in this case TON. Why do you think TON tried to raise $11M? They only raised $4M. There is clearly a $7M shortfall yet dreamers over the road somehow think the $4M was enough to keep going. It clearly wasn't! Astute investors have been aware of this potential CGT problem for a while. Those with blinkered vision (toot toot we're going to $2) either ignored the looming peril or didn't do their research.
TON needs a black knight to tip in at least $15M, possibly $20M IMO. Nicanda Hill won't bring much money in a fire sale.I do know another graphite company have said they are not interested in it even at $500K. I think it might end up in the hands of Grafex again. Just my opinion.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 18 2016, 02:25 PM


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Bit of a chomp at 2.6 this morning. Has the seller exhausted supply? If so, then higher prices look inevitable IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 18 2016, 02:24 PM


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Big line of stock went through at 13c. Onwards and upwards now IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 15 2016, 07:04 PM


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AGM on Dec 2, 2016. All over red rover.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 13 2016, 11:53 AM


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Jaded: "Today with 420mil shares at 6cents it has a $21mil MC."

Not quite right jaded but what's an extra $3M in the scheme of things?


Jaded: " it's shareholders coming in now, with buy price under say 20ish and prepared to double down, recapitalise TON that'll be most benefited"

Anyone coming in under 20c is brown bread. Any recap will be done at shell value.... circa $0.001c IMO. EVERYONE who is not in the recap is brown bread irrespective of whether they bought in at 90c or 6c. That assumes a recap happens which I highly doubt.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 13 2016, 11:43 AM


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I think it involves not just the raw drilling results but all of the geological modelling and interpretation. I'd be calling the police to be honest. The assets belong to all the shareholders of EAR not just EK.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 13 2016, 10:00 AM


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TON were looking to raise $11M and received $4M. Shortfall of $7M. That's your starting point.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 13 2016, 08:32 AM


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In my opinion only, TON's liabilities are probably closer to $10M than $5M based on Grafex liability, tax liability to Mozambique Govt, Mitchell drilling, Brad Boyle termination payment and other creditors.

TON would then need a further $10M to cover 12 months fixed costs and working capital requirements for same period.

Therefore, TON probably needs a $20M cash injection to keep going IMO. Who is going to inject $20M? What return are they going to receive on their $20M? How much equity would they expect for their $20M injection? What is current equity worth given the above?

It's simple math. Net equity divided by number of shares on issue. If net equity is less than zero (and it has to be for TON to be in administration), the answer to current share valuation is zero.

The best TON can hope for is a black knight to inject circa $20M. I would suggest any said black knight would be injecting at a $0.001 price per "new" share which would see an additional 20 billion shares issued. Total shares therefore 20,400,000,000 with a valuation of say $20M. A share consolidation to follow on a 1:200 basis to give a new capital structure of circa 100M shares with a notional value of 20c per share. A current TON shareholder with say 100,000 shares would therefore own 500 shares in the "new" TON at 20c per share. $100 worth! Ugly, but that is the reality IF the administrator can find a black knight to inject $20M. If not, then it's all over in my opinion.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 13 2016, 07:56 AM


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I said a long time ago that I believed BB upset the wrong people. I think it's gone beyond that now though and the people he upset would not be interested IMO in acquiring any equity interest in TON even if it miraculously survives the administration process to live another day. It's too much of a mess and there are too many question marks over the actual worth of its assets.
TON have admitted they were going to concentrate on Ancuabe rather than Nicanda Hill. I said that a long time ago.
Problem is Ancuabe is a small operation and TON don't even own the infrastructure. At best they could be paid to supply ore feed for the plant. That would not provide enough profit to pay the fixed costs of the company. That's why I stated the market cap at 6c was way overpriced. A $25M valuation based on Ancuabe was just ridiculous and anyone else doing those sums would have been selling into all that buying just prior to administration.
Simple fact is TON was driven into the ground by previous poor management. Over-hyped announcements and poor cash management led to where TON is today.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 9 2016, 06:50 AM


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Pending drill results will be interesting. Historic results are as good as you will see in a junior explorer. It's in the right place on the planet where multi million ounce deposits have been discovered. Market cap is low. If they can get access to the Bronzewing plant via MKO, it's game on!
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melua
Posted on: Mar 8 2016, 09:51 AM


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FH had discussions with TON ("free/no charge basis") on Feb 17. They are then appointed administrators early March. The positive update was announced some time after Ferrier H had initial discussions. Hmmm.

An ASX board of directors does not appoint an administrator unless things are very grim......ie. insolvent or about to be insolvent. TON need a lot of cash desperately. If the company doesn't receive it then the company is finished IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 8 2016, 07:10 AM


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Ferrier Hodgson:

"We estimate fees for the administration of the Company’s affairs at $200,000 (plus GST).
It should be noted that if, during the course of the administration, any unanticipated issues arise, it may be necessary to revisit the fee estimate. In the event that we become aware that our costs will exceed this amount we will advise you accordingly."
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melua
Posted on: Mar 8 2016, 06:48 AM


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Fair deal for both EAR/MKO is a 3:1. That will put both companies at an equal market cap at time of merger (if a merger is the agenda). If there is no merger, I will sell.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 7 2016, 10:26 PM


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EK is hurting because he has lost control. MR is in control and what MR wants MR will get. He has the numbers. There seems to be endless buying at 12c and someone is soaking up all the stock that comes on to the market. Either stock is a raging buy in my opinion but EAR is slightly better value at the moment.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 7 2016, 10:23 PM


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Yeah agree with all of that jb except I think it will be a 3:1 scrip deal.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 7 2016, 06:20 PM


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Not sure what you mean by legal actions?
Yes they will need more money at some stage although they did just do a placement at 6c.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 7 2016, 03:52 PM


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Under MOZ law, if the vendor doesn't pay the CGT, then the liability is with the buyer. I would suggest TON have a fairly substantial tax liability (perhaps Grafex aren't paying?) and this is what has pushed them into administration. Just my opinion.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 7 2016, 03:47 PM


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Hi merc,

Sorry just came across this thread. No I don't hold CSE anymore. For some reason, CSE always traded at a discount to their intrinsic value. Frustrating stock. SYR now $1B valuation and TON in administration. MTA on strike with SYR's deposit yet market cap $10M. Amazing times in graphite.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 4 2016, 08:30 AM


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It appears as though there are some delusional shareholders in TON. They should read today's update and hopefully they will clearly see this process is about returning the maximum amount possible to CREDITORS (not shareholders). Management may have found a skeleton or two and decided they had no choice but to call in the administrators. It's all over. Time for people to move on.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 3 2016, 09:55 AM


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That is assuming they have any money left. Perhaps the tin is bare and creditors are still owed monies? I don't think the asset is saleable. TON only own 80-90% of it. I think Grafex will probably end up buying the 80% back from the administrator for a token amount. SYR won't buy it. They already have enough high quality graphite for 1000 years.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 3 2016, 08:47 AM


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BB will get his money I think. He will come under employee entitlements and they are first in line.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 3 2016, 08:35 AM


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Well I'm not surprised. The administrators have been called in. There are too many uneducated rampers on share forums who truly have no idea.
The gullible that followed the BS by the rampers have now lost everything. Anyone negative was run out of town. Hard lesson learnt for some. It also proves high volume buying doesn't necessarily mean smart buying. The day traders have been caught out too.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 2 2016, 09:34 AM


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bereal,

The big difference is the quality of the resource IMO and as explained clearly by ciabatta is the reason why instos have avoided TON like the plague. The other reason they avoided the stock IMO was previous management.

IMO, now that Ancuabe is the focus, the reality will hit home. It's a small boutique operation, small scale, and TON don't own any of the infrastructure. Any "deal" will be heavily in favour of GK in my opinion. They hold all the aces.

SYR have just tied up China, Korea and now Japan with today's announcement. The elephant in the room is not slowly down. Tolga has stated SYR will dominate the graphite market and it's certainly starting to look that way. They are years ahead of the competition. In fact, there is no competition, hence the billion dollar valuation.

Disc. I don't own any graphite stocks.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 2 2016, 09:28 AM


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Struggling to gain momentum. Board reduction a good thing. They are keeping a close eye on expenses.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 1 2016, 07:00 PM


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I posted on here not long ago that concentrating on Ancuabe as a boutique operation was TON's only hope. The problem is TON do not own the plant. GK do. Also, the production is only going to be circa 20,000 tonnes per annum. What does that leave TON with?
What % of the operation will GK give to TON? Will GK just pay for unprocessed ore at market rates? Knowing TON's precarious state, do you really think GK are going to be overly generous with any deal? I personally think the current valuation of $30M is ridiculously expensive.
What can TON possibly make out of Ancuabe? Not even enough to cover the admin bill IMO. What can they sell Nicanda Hill for? Is it a commercial proposition? So many unanswered questions.

Don't even contemplate comparing TON to SYR. That would be a waste of time and quite foolish. SYR is valued at a billion $ for a reason.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 1 2016, 02:12 PM


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......and yet it is still trading at a market cap of circa $30M. ohmy.gif
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melua
Posted on: Mar 1 2016, 11:40 AM


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Ugly day for TON. Beware those red hearts. They should call themselves red comets....... come and go in a flash!
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melua
Posted on: Mar 1 2016, 09:36 AM


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Red Hearts got caught out on TON. Nowhere to be seen on the TON forums.
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melua
Posted on: Mar 1 2016, 09:03 AM


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Strategic Update released. Nothing new in there. The question remains. Where is funding coming from? The red hearts will be heading for the exits IMO.
In fact, IMO, this announcement re-inforces my opinion TON are floundering. They have very little cash, retail holders are all tapped out and insets won't touch them. I'll be surprised if this is not sold down at some stage today.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 29 2016, 05:44 PM


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"Well done. Applause" You have a message in your inbox here Mr Ciabatta.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 29 2016, 02:43 PM


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SYR just hit a market cap of $1 BILLION! よくやった smile.gif

拍手
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melua
Posted on: Feb 29 2016, 12:40 PM


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I suspect the "Red Hearts" over the road have been sucked into buying TON from their TA programs. The problem with relying on TA only is that charts do not actually tell you the full story of why a stock price has plummeted. Red heart rallies are dangerous. They will dump and move on real quick.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 29 2016, 09:12 AM


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This stock seems to be under the radar but momentum starting to build. It's incredibly cheap IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 29 2016, 09:12 AM


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Alan Jenks has sold quite a few more than what was announced for his tax debt.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 28 2016, 08:14 AM


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It will be interesting to see what is announced when they come out of trading halt. Something positive or more general disappointment?
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melua
Posted on: Feb 26 2016, 02:02 PM


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Day traders piling into TON on the back of "red hearts" talking it up.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 26 2016, 05:46 AM


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Best gold play I have seen in a long time. Just my opinion. smile.gif
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melua
Posted on: Feb 25 2016, 01:52 PM


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Up 10% since I posted. This could run hard. Julius drill results are outstanding and there is a processing plant (Bronzewing) just down the road.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 19 2016, 06:10 PM


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I'm still surprised there are buyers for this stock. They are in for a rude shock if they think 6c is cheap.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 19 2016, 05:00 PM


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EAR about to start a run IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 17 2016, 09:19 PM


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STA seems cheap. Those drill results on the mineral sands were outstanding.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 17 2016, 09:17 PM


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SYR management has also been the key. Paul and Tolga were both heavily invested in SYR and Paul put his heart and soul into developing Balama. He elected to take his life changing profits and spend more time with his family. I doubt anyone can blame him for that. Since Tolga took over I gotta say he has worked 24/7 for the company and is a big reason why the market cap has held up enormously well compared to most other resource stocks. To be above $4 and approaching a $900M valuation is all credit to Tolga and the team.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 17 2016, 11:48 AM


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Interesting trading pattern in CHK. It can move up or down quickly but I suspect there is more buying than selling under 3c. The aggressive buying stopped which leads me to believe it's still there (off screen) but they have backed off in order to induce some selling at lower prices.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 17 2016, 11:45 AM


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SYR's first mover advantage in graphite has been decisive when looking at the sector's various market caps.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 17 2016, 11:44 AM


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Where's the funding coming from?
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melua
Posted on: Feb 14 2016, 08:20 AM


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The problem with TON is that they do not have $200M to build their own graphite plant so the only avenue is a JV with GK at Ancuabe.
Therein lies the next problem. GK own 100% of the infrastructure. It is not logical to think GK will do a 50/50 deal with TON. If you owned all the infrastructure and TON provided the feed stock what would you offer TON?
I would suggest the best TON could hope for would be either 20% of the JV or simply be paid for supplying the raw material in unprocessed form. Given the Ancuabe production would be circa 20,000 tonnes per annum (maximum), how does that help TON shareholders? Their admin expenses are $4M per year. 20% of 20,000 tonnes is not going to even pay managements annual salaries.

TON is finished IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 13 2016, 05:48 PM


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If a deal is in the wings, then I would expect the stock to run a bit harder yet. It certainly looks like someone is very keen to buy as many CHK that sellers offer. My gut feeling is this will run to 5c at least (similar to QUR).
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melua
Posted on: Feb 13 2016, 05:43 PM


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Up until three weeks ago I thought there "may" be an opportunity to make money in TON if it traded down to 3c. Now I would not put one $ into this dog's breakfast at 1c.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 13 2016, 01:05 PM


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They are burning through $1M per quarter in admin fees just to keep the lights on. They have tapped out all their retail holders for money. No fund manager will put money into this now IMO. It's currently valued at $30M! Ridiculously overpriced for a company that is destined to become a shell. I'm amazed some people are still buying this heap of rubbish. Great opportunity to get out with something for those still holding IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 5 2016, 05:25 PM


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One could assume a vend in is on the cards. If so, it will probably run a lot harder.
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melua
Posted on: Feb 5 2016, 02:32 PM


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It took a few months longer than I expected but interest now back in CHK. It's basically a shell and shells are very useful.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 20 2016, 09:49 AM


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Wheels looked to have fallen off and they have to raise $6M under a prospectus. Hmmm….

What price will they be offering to raise $6M in this market? The market is fluid and can change in a heartbeat. This looked so promising at 9c.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 18 2016, 09:29 AM


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The muppet King Louie simply backed the wrong graphite company. He's been moaning about the difference in market cap between TON and SYR for two years now and all that has happened is that the gap has widened even further. The market can be brutal KL especially for those with no idea.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 17 2016, 08:52 AM


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When I say TON are stuffed, I don't mean they will go broke yet. What I mean is that current holders are stuffed in terms of their equity. New holders can certainly make money in this but not at 9c IMO.
I have maintained all along that BB pi$$ed off the wrong people. When Jason and Anthony resigned from the board after only a month, alarm bells were ringing. Anthony Baillieu is a very intelligent, articulate man. For him to walk away after one month was a telling moment.
It is hard to imagine how the Chairman Alan Jenks could allow Brad Boyle to get away with the excesses and poor strategic decisions. It defies belief but perhaps BB saw in AJ a weakness and he took advantage? From what I am told, AJ is a very kind, gentle person and non-confrontational. In business this can be a weakness. Not always, but can be.

OK, where to from here? TON will need more money. $4M is not enough. The underwriters will most probably sell out and cop the loss. This will probably drift down towards 5c and then the next CR well below 5c will perhaps be the one that makes money for those that get in at the bottom. It is not a stock I would be putting money into now at the current market cap. Ask yourself, would you pay $36M for 100% of the company even if you had the $36M? No way says I. Therefore 9c is over-priced IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 15 2016, 06:59 PM


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Announcement out at 5:50pm. Shortfall pretty much what I mentioned in my previous post. TON are basically stuffed. The underwriters will be capping it at 9c or even selling below 9c just to get rid of their stock and cop a small loss IMO.


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melua
Posted on: Jan 15 2016, 04:26 PM


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The CR will raise $4M maximum including the underwriter. In other words, if shareholders subscribe for say $1.7M, the underwriter will chip in $2.3M.
Then the underwriter will dump, the shares will drift back towards 5c and the market will be anticipating the next CR because $4M just won't be enough. It will barely pay the bills owed IMO.
My gut feeling is this is headed for a complete disaster at around 2c.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 9 2016, 11:07 PM


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I expect the company will have to cut back to a small boutique operation out of Ancuabe producing circa 20,000 tonnes per annum. Even if they have a margin of $300 a tonne, that gives them annual revenue of $3M (50% of $6M. The Germans will have 50% of the production).
$3M annual revenue will convert to next to nothing in terms of net profit.

This all assumes they get to that stage. The way the markets are combined with a share price under 9c, I doubt many will take up the offer. If they get $4M from the underwriter that will pay a few bills and keep the lights on for the next capital raising.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 7 2016, 08:08 AM


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apologies, left a 0 off that last post. 500 bagger should have read 5000 bagger. ohmy.gif
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melua
Posted on: Jan 5 2016, 08:20 AM


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…...and I am in no way any great stock picker. I like to network and follow the smart money in projects that I also believe in. Remember though, even the smart money makes mistakes. Even Tolga would admit he had numerous duds before things turned around with Doray and then Syrah. In this game you only really need one 100 bagger in your lifetime. In Tolga and Paul's case, a 500 bagger or something like that. smile.gif

Cheers

melua (just a battler doing my best)

PS. Maybe someone can post this over the road? As I said, I'm no genius when it comes to the stock market.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 5 2016, 12:36 AM


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Lots of talk over the road about my comments. I will re-iterate I do not know whether SYR is over-valued or undervalued. I wouldn't buy it at current prices but I sure as hell wouldn't short it either. Yes, I have in the past gone through periods where I really thought SYR was way over-priced but those theories have been wrong. The price has continued to hold strong.
I know Tolga and Paul well. I don't have much to do with Tolga these days as he's like an energiser battery working virtually 24/7 on SYR to build a mine and actually make a difference in a positive way to the local Mozambique people. Do not under-estimate him when it comes to anything in business. Paul decided to move on and take his profits and spend more time with his family and can anyone blame him for that? He couldn't spend what he's made out of SYR in ten lifetimes and it couldn't have happened to a nicer bloke. Cannot find a negative in that man and if I can give you one giant tip it's to watch and see where he pops up on a board in the future. He is one guy you want to be backing with your own cash. 100% honest and hard working for all shareholders and just a great judge of a business/project's potential. A true visionary.
SYR might still be cheap for an insto but not many small retail holders are going to make huge money buying into a $900M company. Yes, it may well go even higher but the huge profits were made early (as they normally are).
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melua
Posted on: Jan 4 2016, 10:29 AM


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Tobyjack is quoting me as saying TON pi##ed off SYR. Wrong!. Brad Boyle pi##ed off the wrong people and it had nothing to do with Syrah.

Tolga and Paul were the visionaries and deserve every success that subsequently came their way. The geologists did look at the ground but have no doubt the brains and drivers of the project were Paul Kehoe, Tolga Kumova and Tom Eadie. Paul and Tom also both have science/geology qualifications. In the case of Paul he also has a business degree and practiced as a chartered accountant. SYR's initial personnel were A grade. BB and TON were D grade at best in my opinion.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 3 2016, 10:35 AM


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The whole TON saga is just one giant amateurish stuff up (putting it politely).
For me, the early alarm bell was when Paul and Tolga looked at the TON ground when they were in Africa and decided to pass!
They then bought the Balama tenements through their unlisted vehicle (Jacana) and then did a RTO of SYR. For an initial outlay of around $350,000 they built that into a $800M company within two years. I simply asked myself the question : Why would they pass on TON's ground and vigorously pursue the ground that is now SYR's Balama?

I think TON's only chance is develop Ancuabe via a JV. It's the best ground TON has and to be honest, it's not as good as SYR's Balama but it's still probably the second best graphite deposit in the world and worth pursuing as a boutique operation. Unfortunately with the amount of confetti on issue in TON and just a dog's breakfast to show for it, the current TON holders are basically burnt bread in my opinion.

Any decent money to made in TON will be "new" money IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 2 2016, 05:41 PM


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King Louie on April 16 2015:

"Make no mistake.... The world market of current and emerging suppliers/future are scrambling and TON is at the eye of the storm... What do I know?... What did the market know of the $2b deal...ml eft field... The company has given up on the market and they are just going to do their thing.

I am going to make a S#it load of money on TON and am not selling a share until it is over $1

DYOR

IS IT REALLY TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE?

KL - Is it? ... No regrets."


Yes KL it is too good to be true and perhaps you should have listened to those that knew after one meeting with BB he was completely out of his depth (and he pi**ed off the wrong people in a big way)? You're also out of your depth in equities markets KL. You're playing a game with sharks and you will be eaten alive. In playing the speccy end, you really need to know who controls the registers.
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melua
Posted on: Jan 2 2016, 05:00 AM


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Hi bereal,

The current market cap for SYR is not justified in my opinion (I could be wrong!) and I personally see significant "potential" downside. A $900M valuation for an African exploration company yet to be in production is certainly pricing in a lot of good news.
I suspect that the market is "expecting" some sort of deal with Tesla and this is what is keeping the valuation high. The instos and major retail holders are not prepared to sell out whilst the potential for Tesla to be involved with SYR is alive and kicking IMO.

Do not under-estimate Tolga's ability to sell a story. The current story has huge merit and you don't get to a sustainable $900M market cap on the ASX without solid fundamentals. However, in order for the valuation to remain where it is and/or possibly go higher, one would expect to see some confirmation in the next 12 months that SYR indeed can sell enough graphite concentrate per annum at a profit margin that will yield a minimum of $100M net profit after tax. The current market cap prices SYR on a P/E of 9 assuming $100M NPAT.

Personally, I would not pay the current price for SYR. For me, the risk is too great but as I said, do not under-estimate Tolga when it comes to deal making/salesmanship etc.

The SYR register is very tightly held. There are a lot of people who have become very wealthy because of SYR and those people are very loyal. Whilst you have JPC and Regal still there as true believers, the price is not going down anytime soon IMO.

I am not close enough to the action to really know how to value SYR now. It may well be that it is under-valued. I really don't know but as I said, I personally would not buy SYR at current prices on the limited information that I know. I'm looking for the next $5M company that can get to $900M in two years! They are not easy to find.

Cheers

melua
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melua
Posted on: Jan 1 2016, 07:39 PM


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TON holders talk about the dilution suffered by SYR when they raised the money for the plant, however, the dilution was hardly destructive to holders. If you have a $800M market cap, dilution is only 25% to raise $200M cash. Other graphite hopefuls would only dream of 25% dilution to fully fund a mine.
Tolga has executed perfectly since he took over from Paul. Paul was the initial driving force in proving up the resource and Tolga was the salesman in a sense. They are like chalk and cheese personality wise but as a combination they were nothing short of superb taking a $5M company to a $800M company in two years.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 24 2015, 08:29 AM


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Now they're all crapping themselves because the buy depth has disappeared. Hello! It's trading ex-rights from today so all orders sitting there at the close yesterday are wiped. Basic market rules. Some people really should not be investing in the market. Who the heck invests without knowing the basic rules?
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melua
Posted on: Dec 24 2015, 07:05 AM


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King Loiue: "TON is now incredibly undervalued (yep over shot the mark a little we did) so for us the only way is up (thanks again) as opposed to our peer which could, as Jaded has stated, crash to an MC of 30m."

What a gumbie. Been wrong the whole way through. Ramped the crap out of TON and cost a lot of other punters plenty.

SYR has $210M cash in the bank and no debt. I find it hard to believe any listed company would trade at a $180M discount to it's net cash backing!

Wouldn't TON love to have an $800M market cap, no debt and a cash at bank of $210M? TON's delusional rampers think SYR holders are scared of TON's impending success… LOL Dream on King Louie.

PS. I don't own any graphite stocks.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 23 2015, 09:33 AM


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Today is the last opportunity for buyers to get set and be entitled to the rights and free attaching options.
Will be interesting to see where this trades after the stock goes ex-rights. I suspect somewhere between 8c and 8.5c tomorrow.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 23 2015, 08:42 AM


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TON is being underwritten to the value of $4M in this capital raising however if the shareholders subscribe for $4M out of the $11M, the underwriter doesn't have to put in one cent.
I would imagine that TON will struggle to get $1M from shareholders, therefore the underwriter in that instance would have to put in $3M.
It seems as though TON will be raising $4M MAX in my honest opinion.

Therefore, it won't be long before another CR is required IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 23 2015, 08:01 AM


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Then again, nothing would really surprise me. wacko.gif
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melua
Posted on: Dec 23 2015, 06:58 AM


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TON announcement Dec 17:

"As Mr Boyle is no longer a director or shareholder of the Company, Mr Alan Jenks has executed a new pledge agreement, in favour of Long State to provide 4,500,000 Shares as Security Shares for the purpose of the Long State Agreement"

Confirmation indeed that Brad Boyle dumped his shares despite Milanese and others not believing certain posters that knew 100% that Boyle dumped the day of the volume selling at 10c.
Most retail investors are in the dark unfortunately. It's a shark infested game and the weak or uninformed get devoured.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 22 2015, 05:19 PM


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There is just no volume buying. A bit perplexed to be honest. unsure.gif
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melua
Posted on: Dec 22 2015, 08:22 AM


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As per the ASX rules they have to issue a prospectus and raise funds. It will be interesting to see how things progress in the next month.
Have to say I was wrong on this short term. I didn't think it would drop below 6c. My average has crept up to 3c now so no multi bagger for me as yet.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 22 2015, 08:19 AM


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Meeting not going ahead now as Vermar have withdrawn the resolutions. Looking at the votes in the announcement one can understand why they have walked away. This company is perfectly set up now as a shell. Would not be surprised to see this back at 2.5c/3c quickly.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 21 2015, 10:06 AM


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Picked up stock at low/mid 5s. Seems cheap to me but could be wrong.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 21 2015, 09:11 AM


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Terms structured a little differently but essentially 650M shares on issue after transaction giving the vendors 65%. Under 10c is good value IMO.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 20 2015, 09:15 PM


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They backed the wrong horse in the sector and reality has dawned on them but they are using denial as a defensive coping mechanism.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 20 2015, 03:00 PM


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A small amount of knowledge can mislead people into thinking that they are more expert than they really are.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 20 2015, 02:33 PM


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There are some rank amateurs over the road who are getting eaten and are still in denial. Milanese and King Louie the main two bit players completely out of their depth.
Mellon did have meetings in Melbourne the past week. The 'B lack Knights' are in full control and its just a matter of how they want to play this game. A bit like a cat with a mouse. Quite cruel as the cat plays and slowly tortures the mouse. Something from Jaded to ponder for those in TON who think the big upside is still a reality even from 9c.


"Louie Louie LoooEye,
If you must know I'm actually Consultant to the Wolves on the Issue of How TON is going to keep Current Shareholder Equity, Big and Small, somehow/somewhat in tact at say over 50%.
Louie that's 50% of all current Holdings before the 15 cent Rights Trading.

Yes King One Eyed Louie I'm trying to "explain" the Possibility that TON is being Shelled, Re Capitalised from WITHOUT current shareholders.Louie and @@ozpolarbear That's a RISK going on right now.
Corporate Raider not [so much] by theSyrians but by this Mellon character and the worry is that Bleeding Grafex is in Cahoots with the Mellon Heads.

So Louie stick that in your rah rah base Piffle, mark it as a known/could be that you have never thought about. Grafex is the Enemy Within you clown!!

Wanna know more? AJ will stand down IF Baxter comes on Board IF the Rights Issue is Successful.
Dialectic Louie. The Three Sequence for predicting Events. It's used in True Risk Assessment.

Yeah got lots of Siberian Subtleties dialectics I "do" on Graphite Companies. Incl Syr but this thread has descended into whether the Web Site has all ALL the ASX news items.
usual TON suspects are turning up trying to "extract" some material for ASIC re defamatory or insider activity or some such piffle. KL I have Milan/Names/ Rat/ and now You on Ignore in the sense I will NOT respond to their Posts. If ozpB don't drop this space cadet piffle of crying oh you're not playing the ball, you said syr could do 30mil MC too
Well for Gawds Sake first he's taking that comment completely out of context because it'll only happen if syr doesn't have ANY thing to show for that $200mil++ in their bank.
However there is AGAIN a Dia based on the Tesla Contracts Issuing lectic Proposition that brings MY market cap/peer analysis into play.

Louie one last thing- Cloud is the new computer network "thingy" so do you see the double "inference" in Hey You GET OFF of My CLOUD !!

.pull ya head in and around that!"


As I said a few times, Brad Boyle pissed off the wrong people and of course beware of the enemy within!
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melua
Posted on: Dec 20 2015, 02:21 PM


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Jaded: "well I reckon TON is in for the Full Tilt Boogie of Corporate Raiding.
The Man Brad Boyle has left the field for the Ball to be "stolen" from current big and small holders while they're watching the Cricket!!"


I gotta say I agree with Jaded here. There is a corporate play happening here in my opinion and it's going to end in tears for current holders.
Watch the CR fail at 9c, watch the stock drift lower and lower, watch the underwriter walk away, watch TON go into administration and then watch the Black Knights/sharks buy the assets at fire sale prices. All IMO of course. I could very well be wrong.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 20 2015, 02:11 PM


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The opportunity is huge, hence the decision by LogiTag to go public via QUR and raise capital to accelerate the expansion. I understand the biggest short term opportunity is in the USA hospital system however the technology has more applications other than in the healthcare sector.

Currently 168M shares on issue after the latest placement. If the deal was signed off over the weekend then the vendors receive 290M shares in QUR. 120M performance share are to be issued later as milestones are hit. Public raising via prospectus will raise approx $10M.

Right now the market cap excluding the public raising and performance shares is (168M + 290M) X 6.3c = $29M

That appears to be a conservative valuation in my opinion. I think a more appropriate valuation now is around $60M or 12c per share.

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melua
Posted on: Dec 20 2015, 08:35 AM


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http://www.medgadget.com/2015/06/global-rf...search-inc.html
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melua
Posted on: Dec 20 2015, 07:10 AM


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The option period expired December 18. We should expect an announcement stating whether the purchase of Logi Tag will proceed or not.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 18 2015, 12:03 PM


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Down to 0.002c. Cash backing is 0.001c. Wayne Richards has resigned so this looks like it's on care and maintenance for a while. IO price is in the $30s now and forecast production costs were round $45/t. They need the IO price to more than double before it's a viable project.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 17 2015, 06:06 PM


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TON re-pricing at 9c to me is a mistake. Unfortunately it may be the case that they have no institutional support even at 9c and with BB gone. The underwriting for only $4M again signals trouble.TON needed to make this re-pricing so attractive and compelling that the majority of shareholders would have taken it up and those that didn't would see the underwriter subscribe for a minimum $15M.
TON is on a knife's edge.

The way forward is a full re-boot. Current equity holders are brown bread and TON need to accept that.

A 1-1 at 5c would raise $20M. That's enough to placate the market that no more capital will be required for at least 12 month. Trying to raise a minimal amount at 9c is just going to have the market wondering how soon will TON want more capital? I suspect this latest attempt is a desperate one and IMO will fail. The best they can hope for is circa $5M which will probably just be enough to clear debts and keep the lights on.

Now the risk is that this falls to around 6c in the next few weeks and that would then put even a 1-1 at 5c in grave doubt. You see what I'm saying about a "death spiral"? Once you're in one, it's nearly impossible to get out of, hence the name....death spiral.

My opinion is that TON are teetering on the brink..... VERY dangerous holding this stock now.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 17 2015, 11:16 AM


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QUR has fallen below where i thought it would bottom out.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 17 2015, 11:15 AM


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As I said, it's in a death spiral. CR fail, new price set, share price falls below new level, re-price again??? Get my drift? They don't call it a death spiral for nothing. In the end the dilution is so great just to survive that long term holders are the "walking dead".
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melua
Posted on: Dec 15 2015, 10:59 AM


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Re-pricing of rights issue in my opinion but only guessing.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 15 2015, 06:52 AM


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Neighbour is not interested. They have enough graphite on their own for hundreds of years.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 14 2015, 11:27 AM


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Market cap is still $38M. Is TON worth $38M given the current situation? I would say no way. It could be valued at $8M (~2c) and still be expensive.

BB upset the wrong people!
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melua
Posted on: Dec 14 2015, 11:16 AM


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TON have basically said they are insolvent if the capital raising fails. How will they raise any money at 15c when the stock is 9.4c? No, it will fail IMO and the price will have to be adjusted down to where people are comfortable. Where would that be given the dire situation? 5c? 3c? take your pick. The lights are close to being switched off and then the battle for the asset will begin in the administrator's office at fire sale prices. What do you think ordinary shareholders will be left with? Think about it.

This company had been managed appallingly IMO. The previous CEO ends up ok himself. Got a ridiculously high wage and 6M shares and a possible $600K payout (if TON can afford it…doubtful). The board have to take some responsibility as well. They were all clearly out of their depth IMO.

If the situation had a future do you really think BB would dump at 10c? Think about that too.
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melua
Posted on: Dec 14 2015, 11:06 AM


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Not possible IMO. Clauses are so tight with those contracts they are not worth the paper they are printed on. They are called "appease contracts" for a reason. "look great" but in reality poison.
This company is on the precipice right now. If you're still holding and the CR fails, you might get caught out in a trading halt/suspension IMO.
  Forum: By Share Code

melua
Posted on: Dec 14 2015, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 5,739

Be interesting to see AB and JM's next move (if any). Someone could do some major damage to the share price using certain hedge funds. If they want revenge/control they will do it mercilessly and end up with 100%. The 2c question is are they that interested? If they are, you will see blood on the floor as stops get hit and panic sets in by those on the outer. Interesting times ahead.

The simplest strategy would be to ensure no-one underwrites $1 for the CR. The company is then basically insolvent as they owe creditors and have no cash. The death spiral then quickens and it ends up at circa 2c. THEN…. in comes capital to keep the lights on but only after they have full control.
  Forum: By Share Code

melua
Posted on: Dec 13 2015, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 5,739

Hemmo wrote: "I wonder if Anthony B was angry enough to pump and dump after every announcement.
Cheers enjoy your Sunday"


BB elected to throw his weight around sharks. Totally out of his depth. Rank amateur IMO. Result: He got eaten alive! Unfortunately shareholders who kept holding got eaten as well.
  Forum: By Share Code

melua
Posted on: Dec 13 2015, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 5,739

Whether it's TON or any other listed stock, to create real sustainable shareholder wealth you need a few essential boxes ticked.

1. sound business plan
2. astute management
3. tight share register

There will stocks that are lacking in some or all of those points and still have success in terms of share price appreciation but the success will not be sustainable. Sooner or later, the market wakes up to what the real facts are.

TON has been a train wreck waiting to happen. It took a while but the true facts caught up with TON. It failed miserably on points 1,2 and 3. The only thing they had in their favour was a good resource. History is littered with companies that had good resources and failed.

So before investors throw their money into a listed company it might be wise to do a tick check list on points 1,2 and 3. Sometimes it is astute to get in before point 1 is known if the company ticks boxes 2 and 3. A recent example of that is QUR. The opportunity was there at 1.3c knowing 2 and 3 were "ticked". The stock is now up 500% but we still don't know if point 1 is ticked. Time will tell but you can be assured that if the business plan is not sound then the share price will not be sustainable. That's why after you have purchased a stock you need to keep abreast of exactly what is happening with the company and if ASX announcements ring alarm bells you have the opportunity to exit before any real carnage happens. TON's announcements over the past 2 years have given numerous alarm bells for those willing to take off the rose coloured glasses and the ear muffs.Unfortunately, share forums create cliques who only want to hear positive news and bullish holders are quick to dismiss anyone with a negative view as being a down ramper etc. I experienced this on the BCC forum over the road and eventually was banned for causing too much agro amongst the BCC faithful. It is a fact BCC are now insolvent and de-listed.

No-one gets it right every time but if you are open-minded to both sides of a debate, you have a better chance of success in the shark-infested waters of the ASX. If you are blinkered you will be eaten alive!
  Forum: By Share Code

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