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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 27 2019, 02:22 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 26 2019, 08:20 PM

Let's hope this situation doesn't get out of control - Imran Khan to consult nuclear chiefs after India's first air strike on Pakistan in decades Posted 59 minutes ago
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-27/imra...trikes/10853290



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 26 2019, 08:20 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 26 2019, 07:15 PM

Another useless prediction.
Anyone can make that one.
At least badhairday put a date on his predictions.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 26 2019, 07:15 PM
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Berkshire Hathaway’s Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett has had a vision! It’s a mega-catastrophe that will shake markets and civilisation ... but also bring opportunity
Jamie SeidelAP
Tuesday, 26 February 2019 1:23PM
extraxt
QUOTE
“A major catastrophe that will dwarf hurricanes Katrina and Michael will occur — perhaps tomorrow, perhaps many decades from now,” the chief executive wrote.

“The Big One may come from a traditional source, such as a hurricane or earthquake, or it may be a total surprise involving, say, a cyber attack having disastrous consequences beyond anything insurers now contemplate.”

https://thewest.com.au/business/berkshire-h...-ng-b881117934z

perhaps tomorrow, perhaps many decades from now, - define "decades" - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10? "tomorrow" is more worrying
https://thewest.com.au/business/berkshire-h...-ng-b881117934z



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
triage
post Posted: Feb 26 2019, 06:28 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 26 2019, 10:20 AM

Mick - you might be interested in this recent article by Stephen Roach which looks at both the US and China. He is the first commentator I can recall that argues that the US may come out worse off than China from the current trade ruckus.

The article appears not to be behind the Australian Financial Review paywall but I've put it throught the Outline site just in case (from all I've heard Outline is not dodgey and does break through a number of the media paywalls).

https://www.outline.com/2TSN6t

Just a reminder that for pehaps well over a decade Stephen Roach was Morgan Stanley's China pointman and he is (or was) as well informed as any western analyst on what was happening in China. He was no doubt a full-on China bull, but he was a very knowledgeable one.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 26 2019, 10:20 AM
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Was talking to the US supplier of Aircraft Interiors last night.
He is miles behind schedule because of an increase in orders and having two of his best workers poached by a rival firm.
He had already given them pay rises prior to Christmas, but it seems it wasn't enough.
There are some industries in the US doing well.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 26 2019, 07:58 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 25 2019, 11:51 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/investors-c...sappointed.html

Investors counting on a big rally when China and US trade talks conclude could be disappointed

A trade agreement between the U.S. and China could result in a "sell the news" market reaction, if the deal comes up short or does not remove existing tariffs, traders said.

=================

seems market fully priced in the really good outcome of this trade talks...........now it is over bought!
wait for the pull back to add if you are a bull, or short it if you are a bear!! imho




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sentifi.com

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blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 25 2019, 11:51 AM
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Debt-clogged world close to tipping point of recession
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
13:25, Feb 25 2019
QUOTE
The risk of global recession has suddenly jumped several notches, as the accumulated damage from US President Donald Trump's trade wars and worldwide monetary tightening is taking a bigger toll than hoped.

A mounting weight of evidence suggests the world is one shock away from a contractionary vortex that would be extremely hard to control.

In the US, the Federal Reserve's instant tracking gauges of GDP growth have halved since late January. They are approaching stall speed.

In China it is becoming clearer that the Communist leadership either cannot or will not engineer another break-neck credit boom to revive an economy slipping into structural stagnation. Stimulus is trickling through but it is a pale image of past reflation cycles

Big global banks and funds bought into this relief rally on early evidence of synchronised "policy capitulation" by the G2 economic superpowers: the Fed's rhetorical retreat after its ill-judged rate rise and hawkish message in December; Beijing's pledge to avert a hard landing at the Central Economic Working Conference.

This had echoes of the Fed rescue in early 2016, which bought another lease of the global expansion and proved to be a bargain-basement buying moment. Yet the comparison has its limits.

The Eurozone was then in the accelerating stage of a V-shaped recovery driven by quantitative easing and the end of austerity. Today it is in a deep industrial slump. It has tightened monetary policy into the downturn by shutting down QE.

Yields on 10-year German bunds have dropped 70 basis points over the last year and are flirting with zero again. Over $US11 trillion ($NZ16 trillion) of bonds worldwide are back to negative yields. Large players are battening down the hatches for a deflationary storm.

Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson thinks it is time to dismount from the stock market rodeo. "Bulls can be dangerous animals. We struggle to see the upside from hanging on," he said


read more - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/1108...nt-of-recession



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 23 2019, 09:13 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/trump-xi-di...ources-say.html

Trump, Xi summit being discussed for late March as China commits to buying $1.2 trillion in US goods

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1.2t ahh?? so cut the quota from others likes pf canada aussie eg....... whoever licks USA's ass. so now, China to do the licks itself instead let others to do it! American first!!!!! lmaosmiley.gif
what a joke!! but it is a reality------sadly. : wink.gif :

globe market keeps up wards after this news. even it is overbought for short term,





 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 21 2019, 01:40 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 14 2019, 02:22 PM

Could explain market movement this afternoon
Exclusive: U.S., China sketch outlines of deal to end trade war - sources
QUOTE
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and China have started to outline commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute, marking the most significant progress yet toward ending a seven-month trade war, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trad...s-idUSKCN1QA07U



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 19 2019, 08:55 AM
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https://insights.westpac.com.au/Video/Detai...mcars7iHQ%3d%3d

lmaosmiley.gif , it has reasons to be cheep i guess.
for investors , that is the case to make decisions .imho



 
 


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