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Posted on: Jul 28 2019, 05:34 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Hi Tom ...
yep well ... as always scratching my head.
His racist rants one thing.Telling other nations how to NOT tax USA based companies is another.Healthcare issue ... is something that will change but ... when 2020 or 2024 ?

For now, we go up I suspect via USA fed cutting rates which well ... will have NO real impact on the lower 80% because the main part of their finance is via credit cards or car loans for the lower 60% and they will not move. Conversely. those who own shares, well that will drive asset prices higher as yet again no interest.
Amazing to see 30 year German bonds near zero and 10 years at Minus 0.4% .Whilst USA bonds much much higher and with good cause, its going to be some time to see rates higher so again ... one of the many reasons the USA is up here and well ... we follow.
2020 Trump re-election appears like a mess. Fox news is a disgrace and so openly right and Trump and whites only club, its chilling to look back at the antics of the 1920's in the USA and 30's ... along with Germany but the USA back then was sadly just like Germany. Not much has changed and for now, thankfully the Jewish people seem to think they are KKK club members in 2019. They have copped enough.
Sadly, KKK hates everyone and each little group has its own Oligachy interests and Tech Boys, who pay no tax, Jewish, fund 30% of all donations which skews things one way, drug companies and healthcare 25% , Oil and gas 20% Banking 20% and from time to time its the large employers who rise up to stop people demanding higher wages, or the Las Vegas crowd, again Jewish and Sheldon who chips in millions ...

what the vast majority and a landslide is over 60% in any election but 75% of people want universal healthcare, sadly the powers to be bribed in the USA and delusional number one, call them socialists and communists for wanting what We have and 65 other nations a lower cost healthcare system which covers close to 100% in basic cover.
I struggle with how many are being ignored and loosing 15 years of life, so ... turnips like trump or other cretins who pay no tax can add to their pile.

I was wrong, in 2008 that they would do something about it. Had to do something about it. They just eroded the pensions, slashed the cover of the already awful healthcare free over 65 cover and then gave themselves a tax cut.
Strange but we, Australia and every other nation by NOT actually demanding tax be paid by USA mainly companies but a long list in other tax havens are actually enabling this.
Sad we are so weak in leadership, afraid of the man with the wig and fake tan. Oh and his minions .... and what a bunch they are !!

Strange times. UP for now ... its the only way ... as much as it is absurd ... low interest rates, no tax paid makes P/E look good for USa and we follow ... and have done so for now.
Have fun

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jul 27 2019, 04:04 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Well MAGA ...
NOT .... Fed muzzled ... USA democracy is purchased and debt ceiling a joke, a record deficit in the best economy EVER ?
Really ?..
France went get stuffed Facebook paying a mere 1% tax rate when its margin is 45% on sales ... Trump responds like a Facebook exec and now threatening tariffs and on wine ? because a nation wants to charge tax on profits generated on its soil ?

Meanwhile, USA hit lowest birth rate, GDP numbers all revised down and even then they are meaningless totally ... as the lower 50% now have negative net worth and the lower 80% even the upper middle class ... thats the 60% to 80% wealth bracket share a mere 7% of overall wealth.
But what drives markets, for now, interest rates, mean it in the USA likely goes now ... we have passed that first milestone of 3,000 on the S+P 500 to likely 3,165.
Outside this, USA could lower rates to MINUS 3% and it still would not improve the lower 80% real economy. This move has nothing to do with anything other than the top 1% ...
As for nations now shedding 1-2% in GDP in not collected tax .... Like France .... Like Australia ... we slowly get strangled. Our nations and NOT bein g hite AMERICANS in the top 1% we are ... well irrelevant and if we complain as France did and imposed a tax to try and collect some value out of the likes of Google and Facebook and Microsoft has not actually gone far enough. When you need 25% PAID on company tax profits and your getting 1% on turnover so about 10% of what you should .... they are stuffed and they must collect more tax there and in fact tighten to compensate.
Eventually, someone will blink.
Will it be prior to Trump bombing Iraq ? Or as he mentioned stopping Afghanistan via nuclear weapons or maybe North Korea ? Or Venezuela ? Then of course 2020 and he is unlikely to be re=elected despite FOX news efforts, ... will he actually give up office even if beaten ?

He just gave yet another speech where he claimed fake immigrant voters rigged the 2016 elections and despite investigations in 40 states NONE of this was seen .... NONE of it..
As to telling France what can do, its same for Mexico and Canada and China and Germany and UK and Australia and so on.
Meanwhile USA came 11th out of 11 lowest of OECD nations in healthcare the bug developed ones, came 37th on World Health ranks and likely about 100 if they used the real numbers. As always a cost of the the wealth flowing to the top, the numbers on Medicaid and emergency healthcare in the USA at records up from 20 million to now 80 million. That is a 15 year old with a box of aspirin for your cancer. Its rated at 30% of even the not so good UK NHS health service ....

Bliss .... then again media has every second add in the USA either a defence contractor or healthcare company don t expect any media on it.

Our market, ASX 200 via rate cuts only going one way. UP .... like the USA for now. Sadly USA eventually the debt size and fact their population is NOW not growing with NET negative illigal immigration and ultra low legal immigration and record low interest rates, coupled with rising over 65's retiring ... who is going to pay for the 25 trillion or over 200,000 USD per person debt the Federal govt holds when the lower 80% average income is a mere $32,000- a year ?

Nothing new in this other than the release valve is HUMANS and the fact that 80% of people end up on emergency Free Medicaid in old age, all assets gone, BROKE .... has impacts on life expectancy but to say Mr Zuckerberg or Mr BEzos who the latter has run a company for 25 years that recently hit 1 trillion market cap and has NEVER paid a cent EVER ... in corporate tax, never paid a dividend, something is either wrong with ME .... or with them.
Even the upper middle class, who YES retire with some assets, but being sick in the USA is massively expensive and more and more gaps of not covered and costs for even simple medications at 4 times anywhere else in the world, even they end life on the whole BROKE.
That said. the top 40% ... are in the USA living as one might expect to normal OECD life expectations and the top 10% as always live OECD best plus about 5 years so to 89 .... the USA average is officially 76.8 years .... its lost 7 years post 1985 v Australia let alone 25 OECD top nations ... if one takes out the top 40% of USA and uses a real average life expectancy of the USA not some fiction so about 75 .... the lower 80% and their life expectancy just hit 69 or about the same as Ethiopia or Sudan...
As always a cost .... if one bothers to look.hhhh
USA policy post 1980 when political donations started and now run the goverment and corporate tax is now 30% of what it was. I am serious and even in 2000 USA collected 207 billion corporate tax and the economy was 45% of what it was now. So in other words its lost HALF .... post 2000.

Of course, to say Facebook who actually claimed 5 billion tax deductions for shares granted to Zuckerburg and fellow board members at $10 and when exercised at $120 share price ... they got a deduction for the difference between the two .... $110- and didn't have to pay tax.
Silly Mr Macron in France expecting Facebook to pay tax .... THEY will de=friend you !!
Amazing the dictator who ... runs the world now ... is openly threatening France for actually going .... well ... we are merely asking for a share of what we already paid for via the R+D deductions that are already built into the NET profit which of course Facebook paid NO tax to anyone for 60% of the world business it does ...

Silly me ... this will work out fine. That is if Trump doesn't decide to invade North Korea first or ... as Bolton said, nuke them First ... I am sure China will not mind a nuclear cloud over them. They reacted so well last time USA invaded and only 3 million Chinese troops sent McCauther back to the 45th ....

Ahhh bliss .... but for now ... USA goes up.So too do we .... based upon interest rates. Our Govt here, has the wrong policy and balancing the budget with 2% inflation and 3% GDP growth ....we could spend 5% just like the USA but not on tax breaks to the top 1% or 0.1% ... and get things moving. Even 2% of that.'
Since our debt to GDP is a mere 30% NET ... including RBA assets and Future fund, its not as though we are ... even close to USA at 107% of GDP right now or EU average of 94% of GDP ...
We basically are being very loose via RBA policy and then doing the opposite via fiscal policy with that idiot fathead Morrison and Flckerberg even more moronic as treasurer. Yes it makes Sense to have the handbrake on via fiscal policy and the accelerator down via monetary and 1% rates.
Then again, bigger scheme of things, its an aside likely to be irrelevant as the USA seems to think its 1875 and they lead the world. Well since the population globally is 7 times larger and the USA, even with 325 million, only 100 million REAL consumers left .... all the rest on some sick death march of low wages and medical blackmail .... the sad fact that China alone has 700 milloio0n well funded middle class AND the EU with 300 million WELL Funded ... middle class and another 400 million around the world, USA with a mere 100 million relevant all be it mainly racist selfish for a lot of them, will not dictate to the rest of the developed and rich outside world for too much longer.ass
Either Trump exits, and hopefully not Biden as he is likely another bribed corporate fool .... but eventually the rest of the world cannot afford to have such a leak of tax via Google, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon and a long list of others, mainly USA based .... draining the welfare of the world at will.
It is sadly that serious. Given up on Morrison and his boot-licking is a disgrace.
China and India both said get stuffed as well as so many others, which, is evolving onto what the world will look like in the not too distant future. EU and 27 nations same thing.

USA first and stuff the rest ? Or Stuff USA ... or should I say the top 1% and also the racist openly so of late the whole USA and send her back to 3 out of 4 born in the USA ... all women ... so they should shut up according to facist pig with wig .... and my my ... their skin is NOT white !! and SOME have different religious beliefs . Golly ...

We are in the 1920's for USA where 3 million Klan followers .... about 5% of the adult population were card carrying members. Trumps daddy got arrested at one Klan rally, Gates father ... well he was an Eugenicist a well documented white ONLY one and Buffett his daddy a Birch Society follower who among other things was a holocaust denier .... Buffet supposedly had a normal upbringing if you read some books, but ... well a fiction ... Daddy was one of the original Senators and far right even of Trump ... far far ultra right and America First party member.
Yipeee ....

you stupid ignorant French person expecting Facebook to pay tax !!

Meanwhile Our PM ... seen stuffing 6 pies down his throat at the footie ...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jul 13 2019, 05:49 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

cap raising of 57m shares at 11c to pros and instos only..... about 4% dilution for current investors in coming AGM 14 Nov 18

Really ... the above was one of the previous posts ....
11 cents and it hit ? 2.8 cents or was it lower.Now it being ramped from inside its 6 cents .... HALF what it was 8 months ago ?

is it back to 11 cents it was 8 months ago ?
I did look at the accounts and its a train wreck ... why are they paying close to 2 million a year to two lawyers ?
I suspect it would need to raise sales 10 fold ... if not more to come even close to break even.
Better bet would be Powerball ...

Oh from the above ..5.7mio raised late last year .... nearly ALL GONE >>>> all gone down the black hole.

I cant wait for their accounts for end of June ...
  Forum: By Share Code

Posted on: Jul 10 2019, 06:21 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

yep agree with all you said.MFG did need to alter its structure at the beginning, they did so ... but yes looked not so great for shareholders. That was a long time ago.
I hold no envy .... u would laugh ....
My concern, a well founded one, is rules that were adhered to during the beginning and for a long time have gone out the window.Time will tell on the likes of say Amazon with a 11 billion profit , NO TAX paid, no dividend ever .... at 1 trillion market cap. So for me a P/E of 100.
Whilst I don't think he holds this dog .... he holds many others who pay ... less than 10% globally in tax and evade ... it ... and are fully valued on a NPAT price and if ... which is a big if ... these people have to pay any tax to Australia, or UK or EU ... profits will get slammed since they pay 2% or less tax to Aust and less to the EU ...
I have shall we say, concerns about China and the antics of Trump. Well founded ones.When you have a global trading partner who imposes tariffs and even sanctions ... and outlaws a competitors tech for what 27 EU nations thought was BS ...

Well ... India aint ever going to become a customer in any meaningful way if they ever get there, China has no choice but to produce HOME grown competing tech and ... well sell it as well to the rest of the world.
For now .... saving grace of the funds performance is one thing only .... ONE ... holding a lot of these things that even if the world went perfectly are fully priced for 2030 ...
Adding to this, at all time highs ?
Much like the bank Hamish worked for ... Deutsche and him being very senior there, they just split in half ... a bad bank and a good bank and neither side likely to goon without more funds.
The new CEO ... Brett Cairns, better ... but it seems to be a place run by a Trump like personality.
Maybe the market goes to a zillion gazillion ... but ... with the lower 50% in the USA now having NO NET worth and in fact negative net worth .... the lower 80% and whole middle class with a mere 7% of the wealth down from a not so good 24% in 1980 .... but falling off the cliff post 2000 and even sharper post 2010 ...
who is going to buy the things the USA clowns make ? China with their new social credits system will just put 500 minus points on buying any USA made product which means ... no travel ... no bank account ... no property and well ... sorry ... USA has done it to itself.
Going to be an amusing few years.
  Forum: By Share Code

Posted on: Jul 7 2019, 08:20 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Hmm ...
well if you go back to page one of this thread ...Someone ... was a big fan of them ... at $1-

Now ? At $55- less so.
Nothing like sell low and buy into all time highs. that's what the fund is doing. Going from 18% cash to likely 8% at the all time high ....

I tend as most know to NOT love things when they go ... nuts and reduce ....

I am well aware of the activities of this company, its funds and in the case of MFG ... very poor record on macro issues and terrible action when investments dont work out. Most would reduce ... say tesco but he added, most say would reduce IBM when results did not match expected ... nope ... just the erosion of an index on fire via no tax paid anywhere to anyone ... covers all sins.

Holding 18% cash whilst market rallied 60% from 1800 to 2900 in the S+P ... and a whopping 30% in tech companies ... in 1999 ... went well.
What was 4.8% holding in IBM from i think 2014 went so well ... then again ... others Microsoft doubled ... the other did not rise.
I am not even sure the blind can see how wise it is not to be adding to things at the highs. I cant wait to see the end of June cash balance likely he has managed to buy 10% at the all time highs.

Congrats .... I do expect ... S+P to likely go a bit higher, but its not fruitful predicting stupidity either side.
Meanwhile tech side, Trump actions ... the most R+D staff on the planet by a factor of 5 ... are inside China ... and its now faced with no Android ... no chips or the threat of ... and well planes with shitty software ... I do note amusingly Boeing which also sells defense stuff rallied 50% ....

I would, well ... be blinking ... not adding and ... well ... wondering if someone will demand Google or Apple or Chevron or a long list pay tax overseas let alone inside the USA.

Or maybe ... well what China being forced even to drop Microsoft from all systems will do with its home grown version likely costing 10% of the other ?

Its like my faithful Moterola flip phone a digital that ... cost $3,000 plus ... was great but then they announced digital and it lasted 3 years .... now .... well its normal to pay $1,000- for some for a phone every year. I do prefer ... the $300- one that does an I5 Apple equiv and has a battery life double that one.
Then again, I know not a thing .... Hail Hamish .... your a legend will it be 8% cash v 18% a few months ago ? Do I have some pre NASDAQ 2000 crash tip hot stocks for you !!
  Forum: By Share Code

Posted on: Jul 7 2019, 02:47 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Tee hee ....
I always like seeing stupid in action.

Cant wait to see how much of cash he has invested at the high .... by end of June.
39% of holdings in tech 1999 and 2019 ... looks great.

Not sure how many made it past 2002.
Run Forrest Run !! Hamish is a hero .... World Economic Forum member who ... well ... never mentions tax.
  Forum: By Share Code

Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 02:42 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

QUOTE ("kahuna1 @ post: 1027823, member: 30")
Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play, but ... well ... the above is destroying underlying fundamentals quicker than even I can type. It does NOT mean we don't get there, but its less than likely if not impossible that world events and total destruction of overseas markets occurs prior to sanity prevailing. Valuation wise, up here .... USA side ... NOT OURS .... USA wise ... its into 1929 and 2000 type levels. Driven of course by NON payment of tax and it makes things look rosy

The above from a few months ago ... View unchanged USA ...

We are to the first irresistible line in the sand .... 3,000 in the S+P 500 ...
Nothing like the USA lowering tax by 10% that corporate pay.Second is the USA Fed muzzled.
Our markets given the weak Royal commission and our own RBA lowering rates is following lockstep.
Iran and other issues, ignored ... even potential ones.Much like 2000 ... tech sector priced like there is no problem ever to be seen with some companies with a mere 150 mio sales but a market cap over 10 billion.
Still some ways from where the 3,150 -75 SP level where the tide is already out, but the idiocy of markets nowadays is massive selling at lows .... and massive buying at the highs.

I did think the opposite was the idea, but what do I know.Meanwhile the lower 50% in the USA officially have NEGATIVE net equity and no wealth.The lower 80% own NO shares or not much and the top 80% own 93% of all wealth.

Funny thing markets and yep we follow the USA, but our lower 80% have 36% of the wealth .... not 7%.
In 1929-30 ,,,, USA run by the same clowns, with the same no rules policy ... USA actually was making 85% of the cars and 40% globally of all manufacturing.
Today its number 10 .... and a lot of that is questionable that's included.

Time for a holiday and come back when the prices more reflect reality.
Without a functioning middle class, let alone an impoverished lower 50%, much like in 1929, the lower 40% lived in poverty. In 2019, record numbers of people in arrears on car leases, medical bankruptcies number one cause and well ... if your paying in effect 3 times what the rest of the world is, sure my manufacturing numbers look ok.
Take care ...We finally are there ,,, and getting closer .... but this one, painful to watch for human reasons.

Mark K
3,165 .... still suspect S+P but betting or predicting stupidity at times ... and for the first time ever, record deficits, record non war defence spending coupled with low low low interest rates ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jul 3 2019, 03:31 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

I have to laugh ...

Trump took Ticker Carlson, the right win Fox idiot to meet Kim .... He was in touching distance.
The following is how delusional USA is right now compared to well Obama who was not great but one can only be amazed at this clip.

UN ambassador was also an ex Fox news reporter ...
The world is an amazing place MAGA 2020 ....

Right at the end ... Nobel Peace Prize for Trump ... can 300,000 dead people in Yemen vote ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jul 2 2019, 12:43 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


I note the drums beat louder.
On the enrichment, since USA dropped the deal, Iran even if it wanted to cannot export the excess enriched Uranium at 5% ... that is what it did in the past, but the USA has told everyone it will sanction any nation dealing with Iran.

Nothing like creating a situation.
I note, Say for Saddam in Iraq a Sunni Muslin and about 25% there, the military and all army positions were his Sunni brand and the top end his sons, brothers and so on.

He did comply with inspections pre 2003 invasion, even USA only ones, only for the USA still to claim WMD's were there and invade.

I note Libya with the highest life expectancy and education and welfare in the whole of Africa, again Sunni , NOT shia .... was of course a bad apple, attacks in the region and training and support over many years, In the end however .... 2003 Libya handed over a near completed nuclear weapon.

In 2011 ,. some fighting broke out ... against Gadaffi led govt, NATO and USA bombed him to dust aand he died with a bayonett up his rear.

Saddam, not a nice person either, but ... well playing the rules, well we know what he ended up as.

Any action by Iran will be the wrong one I suspect. At least according to the USA and UK.

They cannot have failed to see the value of even letting in inspectors and being a good non terrorist supporting regime.

I note North Korea with the bomb .... the chances of giving it up, to a group that will welsh on any deal is slim if not absurd.

I note with dismay .... Trump .... AGAIN ... claimed USA would be at war with North Korea.
Is he stupid ? Or just deflecting the latest rape allegation ???

China must have had a cow ..... AMNESIA or stupidity .... extreme overconfidence and looking at all others as sub human stupid people.

Well ... China is actually ahead in military tech in some key areas making USA carrier forces basically a target .... this to one side.

Korea ... Korean war, whilst nearly won, China was not happy and invaded, or supported the North and forced all the might of 20 odd nations back to square one. Even thinking about it, out loud ... would be insane. HE actually said it ... whilst China is not North Korea, having the USA conducting a military operation on its borders even the stupid can see is NEVER ever going to occur.

Yemen .... it has 7 Arab nations supporting the genocide ... All Sunni .... against Minority Hooti who are Shia Muslim ...

and ... wait for it ... Academi which is mercenaries .... USA ones called formerly [b]Blackwater[/b]

I can count about 10 weapons Iran has that, well ... made me blink. They are masters at copying tech and this one ... from 2006 ... a 200 knot rocket torpedo ... which instead of having a say 20-30 knot advantage over a warship running to evade .... it has a 160 knot catch-up speed.

It is going to be a hoot .... sadly ... that's what they call it and its mounted I believe on various things ... not just fast attack boats but well other missiles which, well .... I suggest the Carrier force moves 2,000 km offshore. Unlikely they do get through, but .... 3,000 odd other modern torpedo and 30 subs ....

The sheer stupidity of Custer at little big horn, his arrogance and contempt, mixed with a dummy running the show who is indifferent to 300,000 Yemen people being slaughtered and likely a million next year is where USA policy is right now. So too .... UK and by silence ... Australia.

Enjoy ...

Some background .... on it ...

And pictures
Please Australia .... do not send our brave sailors and soldiers there. Mr Potato head PM .... WAKE THE HELL UP !!

This is just one of the 10 identified things Iran has got. It happens when you are ... used for350 well documented VERIFIED BY THE UN nerve gas attacks and plead for help .... numerous times to the UN !! Ignored and blocked by UK and USA ....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jul 1 2019, 09:21 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

I am at a loss for words.

Yemen, 300,000 likely die this year.
Systematic genocide in place and fully supported.

I pray for our brave soldiers who well ... follow orders. Gallipoli was fun being landed on a cliff face instead of gently sloping rise ... they fought with dignity and distinction, so too many places ,,,, Rats of Tobruk ... Kokoda and 70 other places

Lest we forget ...
Our leaders, to be blunt ... following as always .... our darkest death march and Burma railway line whilst being starved was ... inhumane.... and close to an extermination camp

Yemen compares. Even Obama stopped selling weapons briefly to Saudi Arabia

Not Trump .///

Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.
300,000 this year .... 1 million next.

Even Trumps senate tried stopping sales ... he Vetoed the senate. I kid you not.

Trumps motto ... now the idiot is running the show ....
Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.
Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 05:00 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

I was going to post a China link.

I note it, and several others very strong worded stories against the USA have disappeared from the party English web site pre G20. Unknown as to why.

Replacement is a high brow, but just as insulting view of USA v rest of the world. From one doctrine to the Woodrow Wilson 14 points to the FDR 4 points. The latter saved the depression, the former, led to WW1 leading to WW2. The other doctrine which declared USA could do what it wanted and South and Central America were its, well, still in some ways in force, in others, most give the USA lip service post 1980.

G20 and China can go a lot of ways, one being Iran and its oil still flows, China plays good puppet and some sham treaty whilst they as always persue their own nations interests.

That these hard line articles that only appear with party approval are gone, I was disturbed as they echoed my own shared views almost word for word.

That even Donald could understand them, verses the veiled and tongue in cheek ones that replace them which are, for any student of history even more insulting as to Colonial treatment of sub human species is amusing and one likely lost on Trump. FDR for example and his views somewhat left saved the world, Trump is far right and Wilsons actions post WW1 were a disaster especially the repatriations demanded of Germany of 250 billion Marks in 1918 which was a quadrillion in today's dollars.

I note, with dismay, and a new record in stupidity, Trump in the White house imposed sanctions on a dead person. The religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini died in 1989. HE in states where religion is intermingled with goverment was first and foremost the religious leader.

So also doing the same to the current religious leader and restricting his assets and movements, well ... it is what it is.

Again on twitter ... he makes more allegations which, factually in this case are not true.

To end this, and it will either blow over, or as Trump threatened again to obliterate them, one way or the other.

What is in shreds is Global trade.
Global trust in trade and this is not Iran but all nations.
Any deal, even supervised to restrict Arms, will be ignored even with inspectors on the ground.
Any military alliance, or trade alliance, or friendship will be torn up. Canada or Mexico or 27EU nations and Japan and on and on it goes.

My assessment of impacts, likely sooner rather than latter, on trade and geo political issues is start and scary.

If one said to me, world leaders, would be threatening invasion or obliteration via twitter 5 years ago, I would have called the person insane. Yet we have a call to overthrow Venezuela and North Korea will be eradicated and so too Iran. One calls the other a name and the other, calls the person a retard overnight.

World leaders. One nuclear power to a lessor nuclear power in one case, the other, well, A snapping alligator turtle without nuclear, no hope of getting it, till some idiot tore up the deal, but a nation and an ancient one, insulted, threatened and expected to negotiate ?

I note, the 16th ? Allegation of sexual stuff, not even headlines some USA networks, the woman, alleges Trump raped her and describes something in graphic and alarming detail. Trump, responds, she is not my type and he did not do it. End of reporting on the topic. Amazing, the consensual Monicia incident, whilst a vast disparity of power, was in fact consensual and still to this day, he brings it up. All of the 16, even ones now able to reveal being paid off, with bank records, I am amazed how things change. Then again how similar they are to times in other nations under various regimes.

Take care
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 07:12 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

I am in disbelief.

My opinion, is as always irrelevant.
I wish you to view the President of the USA admitting he is fully aware of Yemen and the Genocide there.

Him speaking, clearly I think acknowledging Saudi will be dropped if ever its a choice of Israel or Saudi ... and well its for $400- billion arm sales which he describes as ?

I know, my values, as a human and expectations are not shared by many. Only the whole EU and 400 million people, but only one person, President, and group of Oligarchy Industrial War one matters. Oh and Oil and gas interests .... suits them for a higher price. What is a skull cave in Yemen anyhow !! Wish we could send them to Cambodia during Pol Pots regime for re=education and plastic bag treatment.

Over the years, with a deep love of Americans and a deep dislike of its now leaders and their treatment of the USA people, the ones outside the top 1% but the lower 70% who are worse off than 1970. live shorter lives than even Sudanese, this, well ... takes the cake.

Any rational non religious view on this, other perspective appreciated. When speaking to someone who had visited some extermination camps in Germany and told one could still 75 years latter smell the human fat in the ovens where they burnt the bodies, my perspective, is somewhat clouded when a genocide, a well documented one, with full knowledge of the USA and its president is now accepted ?

I might add, Iran and its enduring 350 WMD attacks in the 1980-88 period, Nerve agents, and gas and so on, a mere 100,000- of the 500,000 Iran lost, again, we are not far removed from the tree's.

Governments are never perfect, at times appearing to be cruel and with limited resources its at times accepting this, and moving on. Sadly. for the vast majority of USA people, what once was great and make no mistake they are good people, their needs, wishes and desires resembles the hopes and aspirations of people under Pol Pot or Idi Amin. Healthcare and life expectancy for 200 million plus instead of rising 15 years post 1970 is lower, lower than then.

As to foreign policy I am agog, and any non religious view of this, which is associated with economics and likely impacts and only course of action for 27 EU nations and Japan and many others, yep China and India and basically the rest of the World minus USA.

That USA stood by under Regan as WMD.s were used and they supported as did the UK ... in 1980-88 is sadly nothing new in the last 100 years. Suggesting that in 1940, the fate of the Jewish people was not known, is painful to remember, but until late 1941 and Anne Franks father was desperate to go to the USA and did get a visa, only to be cancelled, is the extreme isolationist and barely covered racial ideals of USA in the 1930's .

I am lost on this one, other than economically China has little choice but to protect its own interests as does Iran when you know if allowed, 8 or so nations will exterminate you, and no one will lift a finger, even at the UN.

Meanwhile rah rah rah ... stocks at all time highs, tax paid at all time lows, in fact 25% of 1990 tax for corporate in the USA. Meanwhile, loosing 15 years of life for 200 million people, 3 billion years or 40 million total lives of 75 years, and its falling in the USA. Of course the top 30% are at world high life expectations. Meanwhile China went from 41 years life expectancy to 76 years. Oh and 650 million peasants have very decent middle class lives with more wealth than the bottom 80% of USA times 5 !!

I will add another thing possibly tomorrow. Reluctant to say more as you will see.
I am lost on where many things are other than to say, Google and Microsoft and many others are not having any future in China, India and likely the whole Eu after recent acts of the last few weeks. One cannot ... remove operating systems and barr things and even block deliveries. It renders any technology a mere pile of plastic and wires and if its a plane, like those ones that had the computer glitch, you crash..

Risk will do what it will ... I take the exit as always when things are NOT crashing but happy to do so now, even if possibly missing the last extinction burst of 5% on the USA possibly to 3,150 so 8%. All time highs .... music for the exit and well given the backdrop, thankful of the strength.

Take care
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 05:48 PM

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Posts: 2,754

Trump over the past few years touted his "America First energy policy" with an effort to boost LNG exports. A clean energy revolution is taking place across the US, which is seeking buyers for its surplus energy.

If the US succeeds in driving Iranian oil exports to zero, or the energy transmission networks in the Middle East suffer a blow from a possible war between the US and Iran, China may have to reduce its dependence on energy exports from the Middle East, especially Iran, and reconsider buying US energy products. That is perhaps exactly what the US wants to see.

Even if China's energy imports from Iran are cut off, China will be very cautious about turning to US sources. The ongoing trade war has made it increasingly urgent for China to cut the links between its energy sector and those in the US. China must reduce its dependence on US energy to safeguard its energy security, which is always a matter of national security.

Chinese party paper TODAY ..... after my view and opinion ...
Yemen ...
Same people .... USA and UK supported and Australia as WELL >...

More than 22 million people out of a total population of 28 million are in need of humanitarian aid and protection. Eighteen million people lack reliable access to food; 8.4 million people “do not know how they will obtain their next meal.”

Killing Civilians for the Crime of Simply Being Yemeni
The U.S.-Saudi coalition warplanes deliberately target civilian infrastructure. They arbitrarily attack homes, farms, factories, schools, buses, gas stations, government buildings, water treatment facilities, and anything else imaginable.

There is a complete blockade ... all sea and AIR ... blocked and Saudi call them Persians, just like Iran ...
No food ? You die.

Same backers USA UK .... Saudi ,, Kuwait .... UAE ,,,, as used chemical agents v Iran in 1980-88

Obama also has a list of very nasty things he did ... but Trump, wow he is worse.

Stand proud ... extermination ...

This G20 is going to be ,,,, fascinating.

The Chinese link is to the party paper ... nothing out of it is to be ignored and the cyber attack on Iran ... v my observation China has no choice but to drop Microsoft, Google, Andriod and Boeing and well a long list of things ... India shares this view.

EU is looking, somewhat silent, not on Yemen .... EU is being ignored totally by the USA ... totally.

Meanwhile, USA stocks march towards that 3,000 in the S+P .... driven by no tax or 10% lower tax, tax theft from overseas ... and whilst increased defence spending, the people .... inside USA ... the lower 70% would do better and live longer in even Mexico.

Of course this can go on for some time, but China, in its own self interest has to act. Maybe even on Iran oil .... India really will not be dictated to by another colonial power ... some upstart. Turkey, well ,,,, its being pushed towards Russia and its being blackmailed by the USA as is anyone who says or annoys them.

THat another attempted genocide is going on, and make no mistake the Iraq led invasion of Iran, given UK chemicals for those lovely Nerve agents and then when Iran went time and time again to the UN .... USA and UK blocked any action.

A mere 100,000 of the 500,000 killed on the IRan side, possibly double that. Iraq, a puppet ... lost similar numbers.

Yemen ? Nice place .... no food, no water, all access blocked and Mike Pompeo claims Iran is supporting them ? With weapons ? Have they invented teleport like in Star trek ? Any human supporting a persecuted group is evil ?

I again stress Iran is not a saint, but say the Kurds persecuted by Saddan helped calm things down, then discarded by the USA led forces. Then they resisted ISIL and ISIS ... hmm ...

Its called projection .... when a deranged person kills someone and chops them up .... and blames another.

Time for new friends Australia, your stinking Mr PM and time to get a set of them and send a surface mail letter verses a call going you have 14 days to vacate our nation and ANZUS is OVER.

I love my nation .... Sadly I cant at present love it ... I can only be ashamed. Gallipoli a military bungle and proud efforts over 100 years, but with a cause and a just one. How is killing ... or being complicit in killing a race something to be proud of ? UK Is neck deep in this as well ....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 03:42 PM

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Posts: 2,754


I hope and pray for sanity. Not with any conviction.Pompeo yet again called Iran a state sposneror of terror.On the two people and organizations that follow this .... ISIL and ISIS and Al Q then Talib ... then a few other flavours ...Iran ... is NOT even mentioned and its absurd to do so.IT fights the first three.

This to one side.Fear and all that.Iran is different ... So are we all.IT is and was the victim .... It is not claiming this ... It is a bloody easily made observation.

I cannot imagine been invaded then nerve gas and then toxic agents let alone Mustard gas.
This said ... IT is NOT a saint.

Iran ... if provoked is a snapping turtle if you look at the mille range link I gave. If your stupid enough to put your fingers in BErts face .... or threaten him .... well your stupid.
I believe ... Iran is the most dangerous opponent one could be stupid enough to provoke on its soil. NEVER again ...
I think if you provoked Austria in a similar fashion, we would be the same.
Bolton, Pence the VP of the USA ... and Pompeo are very fringe evangelical types. Being American and white as well ... and entitled ... they view anyone as beneath them.
Their evangelical end of days rapture crap is ... even more insane than Trump. It is a very .... bad cult movie. But, each to their own .... religion, this however ... is more.
Iran ... if you look at the maps of the USA bases ... then imagine just as many oil refineries and then tanker terminals and facilities in Kuwait and UAE and Saudi ...
Then paint a target on each .... and Iran has some toys like the land launched mobile cruise missile which Ukraine sold them in 2011 and they started making their own in 2015 .... HOME MADE ...

Whilst maybe .... the USA bases that appear to threaten the mythical snapping turtle and surround it .... well BErt is up to 24 fingers he removed.
ONE serious limited surgical strike on Iran by a power which IGNORED and supported another which used nerve agents and WMD's against it ....
Kiss it all goodby ... USA hits 5 sites Iran hits 15 .... USA hits 50 .... Iran goes ... well ... use it or loose it.
I pray for sanity, without much hope. I believe if it came to it, USA generals should REFUSE the order.

Cutting off Iran and strangling it ... when it was haing nuclear inspectors ... was adhering to the agreement which I might add the EU with 27 nations ... and then 5 more .... only USA decided .... Uk has followed but it is without a PM ....

This hopefully goes away. Past history of the USA tells me, they are delusional and not being run by anything other than corporations with an idiot in charge.
We, as an allie with the USA and me I include in this, hold a deep appreciation for USA and it people, NOT ... the paid for lobbyists, the self interest groups, the industrial war complex and so on. I love yanks .... dislike in the extreme the elite ... not to man or woman, but ... the things they have done to the USA are and were sick, and getting worse.
I would hope that some long term friend of the USA... says we are still friends with the people ... love them ... but NO longer can have anything to do with your actions and policies.
Its not being a China puppet .... its being a human being and not rubber stamping as we are the Genocide in Yemen, let alone ... what Iran post 2003 was a 500,000- killing fest. Libya similar .... Syria and ISIL ...

All the war stuff aside ...
China and if we are realisitic, USA just proved that we cannot rely upon any agreement not just defence, but more so trade .... Google wiping Andriod from some local makers phone ? Or Google paying 1% tax here and its Australian competitor is paying 24% ....

We cannot compete ... we sadly cannot trust.
China, India ... Turkey all now cast aside.
We, nor any nation ... can longer trust the USA. Nor do I suspect for a very long time. Trade ... mutual defence .... NATA and Trumps comments and actions, when it would have been NICE .... for once to have USA with us .... Timor ... NO pass from the USA.
Sorry not happy and whilst I pray idiots dont pull the trigger, actually hope China says get stuffed on Iranian oil imports ... and India and Turkey and EU does the same and isolates the cancer in the business sense let alone war mongering sense.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 07:28 PM

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Posts: 2,754

Must run …

Just got the diplomatic passports for the G20, Bert … looks so cute.

Meeting over the next week in Japan.

Iran's 2.6 million BPD out, up goes oil. Limited fight and even better. Saudi desperate and need oil above $70. USA and its shale oil and expanded production needs $70- as well and here at $50 ish they merely break even. As in 1980-88 Kuwait, UAE and Sadis funing it all. 9/11 same … not Iran …. back to Isreal wars …. same funding. Now USA allies ?

This time ignore a genocide in Yemen ? is genocide worse than WMD .?

Likely, and with regret, a limited strike against Iran, its knows no support for its persecuted minority religion. Are they the JEWS of the Muslim world ? Certainly not Arabs.

China just lost a massive trading partner via Iran. It lost energy independence and now its dictated by the USA ? India the same.

Oh and All Chinese products no longer work as Google and Android removed along with 5G stuff.

China to even pretend to bow, now also needs to convert all its laws, all its rules even style of government to USA.

Well, one shot, a surgical strike and we are at $150- oil, Iran will hit 3 times harder back, China cant really afford to be dictated to this way, NOR I might add any nation. Paying no tax overseas and economic terrorist, then extortion and destruction I thought led to most wars ?

It matters not what occurs from here. When you have been already extorted and threatened with destruction or impairment, economically, China has no choice nor does India to drop USA based tech companies and all products, from planes to all the rest.

That is destroyed, despite the USA equity markets for now, all time highs, running on a tax rate 23% of EU for corporate, 7% for USA .... paid ... that is ... and stealing any tax owed to EU when they sell there adding to the rise. EU , well … it will wake up. Oh and who can forget the 1 trillion in stock bought back as repatriated stolen tax money was allowed back into the USA minus any tax.

China and India ignore USA and protect their interests whilst ensuring Iran behaves. Chances of Iran becoming Communist are ... well ... ZERO. Unlikely as China does not wish to confront emperor Trump and well ... without a protector ... its a loose loose for China either way. Win win win for Oligarchy USA arms makers, oil and gas .... wow the Koch brothers are so nice ...

Going to be fun.

Its going to be pleasant.

Japan and Bert I suspect has developed a taste. If only he can meet with Trump !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 04:16 PM

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Posts: 2,754

Bert is so cute ...

still not well ...

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 04:14 PM

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Note the size of Iran.
More so the size of Iran .... to say Iraq ...

Fascinating 1980-88 history of the Tanker war ...US naval institute ...Iran ... well until 1984 I think sank NONE and then ....l identified targets as best it could. Iraq, even hit and sunk ? A US warship ..
As mentioned .... Iran used mines and a US ship hit one .... USA responded sinking 6 or so Iranian ships.
Anyhow ...
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 01:12 PM

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Sorry link that works ...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 12:39 PM

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Will Chinese grow pigtails in 7 days ? For the G20

I love this clip .... Cocked and loaded ....
Limited ... well Iran if they say hit 5 sites, sadly, Iran will respond via 15 ... and with 2000 odd missiles, not counting anti air ....
Bumble into a war .....
How many nations is the USA bombing ? Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Libya ... Yemen and soon to be Iran ? which is 20 times more able to defend itself..

I gave the link above. Think what you will ....
Will share some other views and again, take what you wish from them..
Bert still has not passed the blockage.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 23 2019, 09:14 AM

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Posts: 2,754


what a party ... At the USA embassy. I wore Convict garb and the irony was lost. On them totally .... all with Trump boxers.

Bert ... my new pet Snapping Turtle is not well. His party, the previous night has yielded 17 gold rings most with precious stones, but he is constipated on hopefully the last one. Sadly, an international incident possibly could arise, if the truth ever got out. That embassy, will however resemble a Yakuza Japanese group missing fingers and all ... this time not for saying sorry .... but stupidity.
Anyhow, arrived with another escort to the party, this time ex spook Franciois from EU nation and his wife Dominique and their full diplomatic immunity. They missed the cavity search by a ham fist marine on the way in, no proctology exam needed for many years, and thankfully were the only reason I got out.

Sadly it seems not content with one diplomatic incident ... I have created 2.
Inspired by my convict garb, they thought I was showing correct subservience to my masters, this is the new hairstyle for the Chinese required at the G 20.

I was fascinated to learn Trump would not meet ... Kim Ill Jung of Korea till he had a hairstyle worse than the Donald.

That wearing a pigtail, is so deeply offensive, well ... again lost in the party.

The rest of what occurred at the Televangelist party ... after Bert passes .... all his gifts up ...

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 03:23 PM

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Hi .. rather than appear like a nutter ... as I often do ...

Iran, whilst Mullahs seem ... well ... not nice. Each religion has its own beliefs. Its words at times about USA and Israel, the latter, contains 2 of the 4 top Islamic worship sites. Let alone holy christian ones.

In 1981, Israel, once friendly with Iran bombed their sole nuclear facility then.
In the 1980-88 Iraq led invasion of Iran .... Iraq and Saddam sponsored and supported by the USA .... a Conservative MID range estimate is 1 million died in that war. Iran, was the innocent party.

Iran eventually despite Iraq having a much better military started winning. Iraq .... used 300 times ... WMD's not just poison gas .... nerve agents.
100,000 of the dead Iranians, most civilians via nerve agents out of the 500,000 they lost.
Not some fantasy, or pet theory ... sad fact.Iran went to UN and complained, they verified both the USE .... and scale.
Here is the Low end estimate via Wikipedia

...current estimates are more than 100,000,Iran asked the UN to engage in preventing Iraq from using chemical weapon agents, but there were no strong actions by the UN or other international organizations. UN specialist teams were dispatched to Iran at the request of the Iranian Government, in March 1984, April 1985, February�"March 1986, April 1987, and in March, July and August 1988.
Iran, and dialogue was .... it was some third rate power. Outside the 8 nuclear superpowers, there is no more capable nation to defend itself.
If a single facility were to be bombed ... by the USA or likely say 5 .... the response whilst not threatening USA directly, Iran, already a victim of WMD's ... can and clearly just demonstrated that it can shoot down a top shelf drone, I sadly suspect .... all hell will break loose.
One only has to look at say Iraq and when Saddan was actually letting WMD inspectors on the ground, denying he had any ... USA did not believe it. It invaded on the pretense it had WMD.s and well a million dead latter in Iran .... another 500k regional via Syria and Libya and 1 million both sides 1980-88 ... what would you do ?

Iran is not Iraq.

Claiming to be .... well worried about adding 150 to millions of regional deaths ? As Trump did ?

I note, not a word about this even from well ,,, nutty left wing and history of the USA and shameful history is forgotten !!
I do hope some generals REFUSED ....

I must run and prepare for the USA embassy party tonight.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 09:03 AM

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Posts: 2,754

I sent a snapping turtle to the Saudi Embassy cocktail party.
It can hold its breath for 24 hours.
It can resist a lot of effort to attack it.
It is deadly close up, snapping turtles ... are great.

It emerged ... "Burt" ... my new pet snapping Turtle after 3 hours from the Saudi cocktail party.
It seemed sheepish and somewhat content and certainly well fed.
I note, this morning, its ejecting digested fingers with gold rings ... it obviously snapped off when threatened and they all smell of too much perfume.

I note, Iran was warned ... it was portrayed as a backward sheep or goat herding terrorist.
I note it was portrayed as some incompetent military power.
I note it was claimed it is supporting terrorists ....
I do NOTE that the nation Fighting ISIS and ALquada and Taliban is one called IRAN ...

Whilst Burt my new pet snapping Turtle appears and is quite harmless if you don't threaten him, I note with dismay, and in fact shame, some idiot seems to have donated at least 3 rings, ONE finger lost was not enough.

USA loosing a single toy ... a most advanced spy plane .... 242 USD million .... each ...

USA supposedly pausing .... being the bigger person after provoking and trying to say kill my new pet Turtle ... Burt .... is identical to 1991 ... 1987 .... 2003 and word for word .... USA actions.

How absurd to accuse the nation fighting ISIS ... Iran ... of supporting them.

Whilst Iran is not a Turtle .... its far far more dangerous and whilst I am sure USA and if stupid enough allies will prevail, ...

USA will and does not ever forgive. Loosing a fingernail .... via their most advanced spy plane ... or after sponsoring the wholesale loss of life say in Iraq of 500,000 post 2003, Iran Iraq war total cost 1 million and then add another 500,000- ... 1.5 million

If you were a proverbial snapping turtle and able to protect your people and THEIR welfare .... their life and as a minority 10% of one religion, openly persecuted by others of your faith, attacked by foreigners or their puppets.

Its not over. USA will not stop at loosing one finger, nor two.

Loosing a frigate in 1988 after goading Iran .... a USA frigate was lost, seems to be forgotten, not I might add by the person with no fingers back then. Iran, was on its knees when USA sponsored Iraq to invade in 1980 .... even worse when goaded in 1987 by USA ... and well Iran had lost in a brutal USA led and sponsored WMD gass filled toxic agent filled war .... a lot of its capabilities and people. Still, poor old USA ... well of course they retaliated as only they can ... whoops ... did we just shoot down a civilian airliner ?

Whoops did we just ink a few of your boats.

Whilst a mine .... does NOT move ... its anchored to the seabed ... the naval mine, the fact that a USA warship clearly inside territorial waters of another nation in 1988 ... ran over a MINE they had to protect themselves ? Of course lost in the mix.

Amusing, sad and its revenge for the taking of embassy staff ? Or is it oil ? Or is it China ? Or India ? Iran's number one and two trading partners for oil. USA says Yellow people ... and brown people ... put your hands on your head ? We impose embargoes on what YOU do ... who you trade with and then impose tariffs on you ... and threaten all ... of you deal with anyone ... we will do more.

Nope ... not even act one scene one ... USA will feed all of its armed forces ..IRAN is not IRAQ ..

Playbook say from 1987 mine accusations against Iran .... then a stupid USA warship in 1988 did hit a Naval mine.. inside IRAN territorial waters ... . they really as that incompetent ...

I await ... China at the G20 ... being told and lectured about being yellow, whilst told who and whom they can trade with ... whilst we hold your largest tech companies daughter hostage and dictate all USA companies cannot deal with you ....

PS India told the same ...
Meanwhile ... I do feel for the brave people who defend nations and without aggression. I am so so saddened for what is likely about to occur.

Take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 19 2019, 06:18 PM

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Posts: 2,754

Oh and the real pictures //// NOT grainy black and white out of focus

Not even close to real capacity ...

Boat tender buffer they were pulling over the side and KICKED ... Not a limpet mine is the RED ROUND thing ... on deck.

Not a limpet.
The boxes ... u can read the writing on them and I might add two people were standing on said boxes ... when aside the tanker, and the ROPES around the front one is a hint at their contents, which is NOT a thing to do with bombs. let alone anything so stupid as to suggest someone would throw a bomb on deck and kick it.

IT was as suggested the Buffer/ fender to protect small boat vs large one.

Germany actually mocked USA.

French used a verb from I think their intel head, used describing USA claims, that even I blinked at and it was the verb about being well set up ... but so colorful as being violated from behind.

Amusing. scary and absurd.

Facts, even evidence and have no part of USA or the three clowns in this. In fact that eventually 9/11 terror guys caught and Isama and all his stuff which is the Opposite Islam and one that does not likle ... Iran .... the minority ... still overnight despite knowing they had NO involvement ever with Afghan Taliban or ISIS or Alquade and they are funded by UAE and Saudi .... still they repeated it.

I hope sanity prevails. If I suggested the KKK was accepting peole of colour it might be more factual.

Sad ...
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 09:39 PM

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ha ha ...

Russia came out as well in support of Iran ... along with EU ... laughing at latest USA pictures as absurd. A flying Mine ... was the comment in French... India and China and Iran and 80% of the world one side.

Love the clips but this one .... is more apt ...

Oh and Trump just accused EU of unfair trade via Dragi .. saying he may lower rates if inflation does not pick up.
Meanwhile rally rally rally ... tee hee ... just like late 2007.
Economic warfare or is it terrorism on a global scale ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 05:45 PM

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Posts: 2,754

I write .... and Reuters ... just out ...
Like a machine gun ...

USA ...

As I type …. USA is sending more troops 1000 …. to gulf. Well …

Iran has standing army of 500,000 and USA could not, ever hope given the terrain pray for even any meaningful outcome. 4 times the size of Iraq. Iraq is flat ... Iran is one of the most mountainous regoins on the planet.

Then IRan .... VZia Reuters ...

Iran will not wage war against any nation, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday in a speech broadcast live on state TV.

And without a beat being missed …. China …

The Chinese government’s top diplomat warned on Tuesday that the world should not open a “Pandora’s Box” in the Middle East, as he denounced U.S. pressure on Iran and called on it not to drop out of a landmark nuclear deal.

Do you think ... my mythical invitations to various Embassies and what sadly is about to occur is even close to the mayhem about to potentially if not assuredly via either China joining India going get stuffed to USA on tariffs ?

Time will only tell ... as with the rest. USA trade actions ... even now forcing China to develop and use non USA Microsoft and develop its own version of Android mobile operating systems let alone any chip they already don't produce.

I have decided to blacken my face and go as a cotton farmer from the USA from 1500 till well even 2018 to the USA embassy party.

Take care
Mark ...

PS even without a shot fired, I have never ever seen such a disturbing actually guaranteed total destruction of capital and longer term value for USA based interests, not just tech, but I sadly suspect every industry from cars, to planes to EVERYTHING. Nothing like stupidity on display.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 01:09 PM

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Posts: 2,754

Ooooh ...

invite to Saudi Cocktail party at consulate in the mail !! I am breathless For some reason.

Invite to USA cocktail party ... in Canberra where the lobbyist lawyer USA Ambassador runs Australia ... NO tax for those USA corporations is now Ambassador/ President of Australia. What to wear ? Convict garb ? OR as an African American despite being anglo ? Or is it Bernie for 2020 T shirt ?

They keep coming. The party invites.
Last one just arranging the deal with other parties to ensure mayhem does not break out.

Mum is the word till after G20 likely failing v China tariffs latter this month. USA allowing its corporate to pay NO tax overseas, in fact claim all deductions say at 30% corporate rate in Australia and then when the bugger off ,,, without paying anything, they don't even have to pay the 21% USA headline rate, there is a special rate for overseas generated profits. stolen from overseas ... now ... 12% MINUS overseas paid tax or deductions.
Is that a subsidy ? Or WHAT !!!

Wow ...

USA of course markets went up overnight despite INDIA going get stuffed USA,
Ignored Russia and Iran agreement,
Ignored China and Iran agreement on trade

Not sure they will ignore the defense mutual agreement likely signed post G20 ?

Whoops did I say that ? Does that mean I cant come to the party next month. China protects Iran, ensures NON nuclear proliferation via Iran, it will hardly need it with a Chinese new port in the Arabian sea. Win win win for actually the world.

Win for Iranian people .... Persians Not bloody Arabs.
Win for China and its Oil needs.
Win for sanity.

So so so sorry Mr USA Ambassador for my convict attire.

I just cant keep a secret.
This G20 ... is going to be a ripper.

Meanwhile China has NO option but to drop Microsoft ... from operating systems ... android is being banned so China must use its own ... and Huawei with 81,000 R+D staff and its just one of the phone makers there .... has more R+D staff than Apple and google Combined.

I have never seen such a stupid, arrogant policy on so many levels ... not just war ... industrial military side ,,,, but a DELIBERATE total and complete assured destruction of WEALTH and markets.

USA and its well ... policies, ensures China MUST develop and be self sufficient in all aspects of tech. Let me see ... hmm $300- phone or $1,500 one ? Doing the same thing. China has 90% plus of Africa by the way ...

Meanwhile USA shares, and equities rise, as their non payment of tax to anyone anywhere .... of course supports valuations, but, when you send a pile of dog poo to a restaurant customer and DEMAND they eat it, are they likely to pay ? Or come back ?

Fascinating unprecedented times on all levels.
Iran even without China ... is NOT Iraq.
It can and sadly will ... again ... if needed ... do what it must and has no choice to do.

Must run party party party ...

Cant breathe ... oh and the Turks who taped recording of the actual the death of the Kosggi Washington Post newspaper reporter inside the Embassy of Saudi Arabia inside Turkey, which as a friend of the USA at the time, in fact crucial one for Gulf War 2, invasion of Iraq number two, NOW no longer USA friend and sanctions for them for their actions.

Washington Post now of course, "Enemy of the state", accused of treason by Trump. Funny, that sounds like "Jewish people enemy of the State from 1933".

My dance card is full !! So many parties.
I suspect hamburgers at one event .... scabs, and bogans that they are.
Do love Chinese food next month, cant wait.
A good kebab at the new Turkish event ....

the other ... well do I wear a scuba set to get air ?

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 17 2019, 07:48 PM

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Posts: 2,754

Howdy ...

I noticed something, a while ago ... In USA stuff which was obvious. If say i called an Indian a Pakistani, or say a Mexican a Canadian, totally different cultures, religions and so on. It is VERY clear out of Trump and the Bolton and Pompeo they are blissfully aware.... OR UNAWARE .... Iran is a separate faith. It is NOT an ARAB state and does NOT speak Arabic there other than around 5% of the people.They are Persian majority.
Accused of some armchair warrior or whatever, Here is .... I suspect one of the top military analysts and with vast experience.
former Israeli Intelligence Boss Yakov Kedmi and jis view ... is identical to my own.
Israeli Intel Boss Claims US Will Lose War With Iran
Then again for some, anyone's view no matter how vastly experienced they are ... is an aside.Similar points about SIZE of IRan, geography and so on.
I found another classic and WHY we went into Iran in 2002 ?
Look at this classic ... standing next to George W bush JUNIOR ... the guy with the WALRUS mustache is none other than John Bolton the man that time claiming WMD in Iraq, not Iran...
Goes into some depth, not completely accuracy but with pictures of the players speaking, lying ... and is amusing and well ...

Corporate News Pushes Iran War For Trump

Meanwhile Our PM .... not a word other than the two pies he scoffed at once were not enough.
Enough on this topic, just fingers crossed, but sadly, history and same players .... Trump is the new boy all the rest of the gang ... still there ...

Are we at war YET ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 17 2019, 11:53 AM

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Posts: 2,754

Alarmist ? Opinion. yes, emotional ? Maybe, sad and deeply so, yes.

Part 2 .....

It is about investments actually. Not WAR.

There is no single wealth destruction event that can be predicted with some accuracy ... OR Risk off the table if your saneOTHER than a looming a war OTHER than a looming war .. which usually can be seen well prior it.

Yes if one could predict an earthquake or volcano or natural disaster with accuracy, a WAR ... say like 1939 and prior to that which was WELL telegraphed, saw equities in UK, USA and elsewhere, logically Fall and FALL like stones after some events like Pearl Harbor when the threat was direct.

I am not suggesting Iran is blameless, NOR not guilty. Its history and factual, is a sad one.
One cannot one day be on the side using WMD's in 1980-88, then NOT ....

I fear, the USA more than most right now.

If one owned say land in the Somme in 1914 worth 2 million, in 1918, well it looked like mud, no buildings left and worth 10%.

I note, and being foremost a forecasting type of scientific analyst, NOT an economist .... well qualified but not ...

Ben Bernanke, and drip down economics claim that supply side works and Bernanke is famous for his 1929 views and delusional ones I might add about markets which ignored, IGNORED ... Germany invading Poland and the slide then, the Dunkirk slide, the Battle of Britain slide and even Pearl Harbor when markets closed for a week and came back 15% lower much like 9/11.

NOTHING .... beats a bloody war. I am not suggesting we go there, I pray we don't.

I note, China basically said get stuffed to USA again and in relation to Iran this time. Over the weekend India said get stuffed USA and imposed its own tariffs, not that that mean much. Russia at the same meeting with Xi head of China and the rest NO USA .... even Iran there ....

Where did the USA send its index UP ....

UP ? near all time highs. China has been forced to invent its own mobile NON USA based software .... Its stopping all Microsoft in Military and Govt uses with good cause ...

Maybe my picture is wrong, but it seems, well .... a time to be a bit more RISK adverse and my whole point on this thread, topic and others about cycles and an insane ability to strangely predict the future is LOOKING back and then going well .... its common sense to be more cautious.

A best time to do this is WHEN irrationally markets are going one way, and RISK is going the OTHER. Or value is going the other way.

Iran and what occurs will happen. I think, well potentially China will go get stuffed on USA ruling no more imported Iranian oil Mr China and we have this exponentially going into global stuff. Even without that, if USA is so arrogant and they are that, so self centered and one can see despite very bad announcement sand indications for USA and its tech side and equities via China and its actions, it defies even all logic and is UP. Likely it just wants to go up and up and up.

I am happy, as always to reduce risk and stand back into, well .... IDIOTS. Not suggesting USA on the main is that, love them, appreciate their role, but right now, its the sad fact that the lower 70% hold 4% of the wealth, and well 70% held by the top 1% and 40% of that the top 1%.

What the lower say 80% wants, needs or desires, like universal healthcare, decent costing, decent education and things we take for granted, they are labelled via the USA media as Socialist or communist when ... we enjoy them, as do 60 other nations yet are we socialist ? Communist ?

Strange world. MY distaste for USA leaders post WW2 and especially as the vast majority got screwed post 1980 Reaganomics and regressive tax and NO tax for the rich ... is ... profound but also tempered by the REAL role to stop idiots with WMD's and Biological weapons or nerve gas. You just don't stand still and support its use either directly or indirectly then ... use it .. as an excuse to bomb the hell out of another ... Libya or Iraq .... not sure about what side USA is on in Syria where used YET again ...

IRAN had them USED on its people, GAS, Toxic agents and so on, NOT THEM, IRAN .... USING them.

These weird projections of the USA accusing the victim of the crime .... let alone Trumps mutterings, Clearly a psychopath or sociopath, likely to end ... well in tears. All around in tears and if Iran is not well prepared then I AM STUPID.
I am .... I am sharing what most would take years to learn for free.
Risk off ... its all time highs for the USA, post GFC for us, eve if wrong, I will i am sure get another bite at adding to the pile.

Take care
Mark K.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 17 2019, 11:51 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


From elsewhere /.. ME ... sorry font but this new site ...


Any topic, we will have opinions, and reality unless the evidence is clear and irrefutable.

In some things, science, and experiment conducted 1 million times, same result every time, expecting another result the next time or denying the thing occurred that way a million times is where some people are.

We did not go to the moon, the earth is flat, atrocities did not occur. Even in finance claiming say the GFC stocks went up post 2007 into 2009.

If one had taken the time, and say 30 others on say science behind a topic, all say 40 issues, and every single one, not any were either fake or not agreed with, delusional theories .... not supported by any factual content, scientific or even logical are presented instead .... well they exist in their own little world. There are several threads here on this site with examples of science, irrefutable incontrovertible facts past occurrence and after 50 pages or so, 100 responses, being polite, searching if one had missed something, one asks ? what of the 40 topics ones with chances of less than one in a million and 50,000 scientists believe and sign off on do you agree with ? If the response is NONE and NOT and all are fake ?

What would you call someone with these thoughts ?

Delusional ? .

I mean no disrespect, they are if given even the time of day in any rational discussion where science logic, fact and irrefutable evidence is to be used, a way for some quite irrational and idiotic theories which are just absurd to enter and cloud the issue.

Would you keep listening with any seriousness if someone told you they were 50 kg when clearly they were 200 kg ? Or say if they presented a car run over by a truck resembling a pancake and told you a leaf fell on the roof, maybe if they were cute you may forgive, but ... well it is what it is.

On Iran.
It is NO saint. I repeat I have NO idea if they did it,
I am very clear and have presented that damage was caused by Limpet mines with 3-5 kg of explosive and HOW and WHY they only could have been placed when a ship is at rest and NOT moving especially the one near the propeller.
Of the 6 damaged ships ... 5 had limpets, NOT SEA mines. Sea mines contain 500 kg or so of shaped charge designed to destroy a ship moving twice the speed of a tanker which is not armored.

For a month, the first 4 attacks, it was implied and sprouted the attacks were SEA mines which I would agree come from likely a nation state due to SIZE. They were not.

they were limpets, weighing all up around 8 kg the size of a briefcase magnetically attached to the hull. I have shared that a 10 year old could build the bloody thing, not with the explosives likely with $500 if they scrounged.

These were attached whilst at rest in the UAE or Saudi waters, where 15 warships, 6 hovering planes, 3 satellites and hives of drones were looking. Possible but, well, given the first clear lie was left lying for a month, I am less inclined, in my opinion to believe.

Second attack, one limpet and some flying object, one ... which which was called a torpedo until pictures came out that the HOLES were above the waterline.

It was NOT a bloody torpedo, unless it FLEW.

Pompeo overnight ... 15th June 2019, actually blamed Iran for an attack that al-Qaeda the ones in 2001 the guests of the Taliban, In Afghanistan and backed and funded the 9/11 terrorist attacks that come from the Majority 90% Group of Islam, Sunii faith, that DOES NOT LIKE the Iranian minority Islam faith Shia faith... The USA secretary of state, such as he is .... he blamed Iran for the attack that the other Al-Quada terrorists had already admitted was THEM.

Accusing say the DEAD Journalist killed inside the Saudi embassy Kashoggi, it was on tape, as he died. A tape released from inside the embassy as he was suffocated .... going and pleading he could not breathe, and now admitted by Saudi Arabia they then chopped him up and disposed of the body.

If Pompeo had claimed Iran did that, it would be about on a par as absurd as his latest claim.

This is the Secretary of state of the USA.
He and the USA responded by selling 20 billion MORE in Arms to the Saudis. Let alone their funding of al=Quada and the 9/11 attacks which I point out Iran had NOTHING to do with.

On intelligence, overnight again Pompeo claimed more had been released. Japan has expressed its disbelief and Germany outright came out with total disbelief. USA, Britain ... of developed nations ... and a total of 12 .... Yes 12 with 10 other EU nations making well ... comments that do NOT support this USA version.

Australia and fathead PM, with forces in the air over Syria, ships I believe still in the Gulf, troops on the ground in Afganistan and with the most important spy base in the region, a joint USA Austrlain one called Pine gap which uses assets from this part of the world, we have ringing sounds of silence.

Israel, similar.

Some history ... or repeat of the play-book USA used in 1988 ?
USA claimed in around 1988 a tanker was hit, sea MINE and used that to bomb Iran and its offshore facilities. Does that sound somewhat similar to current events ?

USA shot down a civilian airliner with I think 290 people on board from memory in 1988.
Prior to that the Iran Iraq war which Saddam Hussein then a ally of the USA was supported as he started and attacked Iran after they removed the similar puppet Shah of Iran that the USA and Britain had installed who ... well made Saddan and say Manual Noriega in Panama and the Marcos puppets and few despots in South America USA installed an supported look like nice people.

Dates me be out ... its from memory.
Iran under the Shah was actually with Ok relations with Israel up till about 1980 and the removal of him.

Then a war, supported by many ensued and roughly 2 million were killed both sides all up.

The fighting was brutal and compared to WW1 trench warfare at times because Iran, was isolated and at times Iran had to use human waves of people, armed with grenades to stop the well supplied Iranian side with allies like the USA and even Russia and most of the majority 90% other faith of Islam states.

It is BEYOND even doubt, weapons of mass destruction, nerve gas and what occurred is a total complete farce on may levels. this war ground on from 1980 to 1988.

Stalemate and the land grab Saddam in Iraq tried to seize off Iran did not work. Saddan 3 years latter, thinking he was encouraged .. to invade Kuwait and threaten Saudi Arabia in 1990 or was it 1991.

All of this was a land grab, about OIL .... and since then, well even since 1980 its been the forever war the USA has been playing with flies ... in the region.

Now, Iran .... a million dead or wounded, in the past 30 years, victim of weapons of mass destruction ... whilst NOT the USA using them, they supported as did the UK the people who ousted their puppet Shah of Iran.

In the midst of this, Israel, and its status of whether the USA is its Allie or foreign policy is Run vica versa via its influence in the USA political side is just an observation .... Iran had a pilot Nuclear plant. French built I think, in 1981 ... Israel flew over 7 other nations and BOMBED Iran .... Bombed the nuclear plant they saw as a threat and hence the part of the animosity and some of where the rhetoric comes from.

I do understand the need to NOT have nuclear proliferation, I do understand why the horrors of Mustard gas and WW1 were banned, so too WMD of biological and toxic nature, YET ... they were used a mere 30 years ago against IRAN. It was NOT them bloody using them, it was Saddam of Iraq, who thought it would be a pushover with Iran ,,, and was loosing ... badly ... used them to STOP human waves.

Be proud .... our closest Allie USA ... rah rah rah. I was living in the USA gulf war 1 .. and I cast you mind back for those old enough to whilst it being a cake walk, Iraq had 1960's mainly soviet tech verses USA ... a flat terrain ... it was pretty one sided. Well ... I suppose another million dead in Iraq ... post then .. with gulf war 2, its hard to contemplate the misery ...

Estimate out of Gulf war one on Civilian accidental deaths from USA was .... 6 ... yep 6 ... From the Red cross its 50,000.

I digress. Iran. Iraq despite the cakewalk ,,, and USE IT OR LOOSE it bombed from above ... the search for hidden scud missile of which were bloody a mere 100 or so ... they were not found in a totally flat country for about a month and some were sent to ISRAEL .... 1960 design .

Iran is NOT IRAQ.
Its already shall we say, shown tolerance. I do NOT know if some branch of their somewhat dual armed forces placed the mines on the ships. It IS possible but so too from a 10 year old and every single nation state on the planet.

IRAN ... already a victim of what I suspect is the worst of humanity over the last 40 years, is well versed mountainous and well aware ... if the USA actually was stupid enough to click it off, its a matter of shoot it or loose it for its massive long range and intermediate missile defenses. All 1,500 of them, 5,000 or so shorter range ones and they ... are NOT 1960;s they are not quite cutting edge but comparing them to a SCUD ... a mere 100 ... would be absurd.

Whilst 3 old larger subs, 4 or so mid sized ones and 23 small ones, and MODERN ... good luck !!
good luck against the smaller anti ship stuff and 2,500 mobile armored tanks or artillery in regions that offer great defense.

That I suspect Iran is assessed to have NO Nuclear capacity is clear. Iraq was claimed to have it or be close to it, and Libya was not thought to have any yet handed over a near complete one, well ... its time to pause ....

Not a debate about the history or versions of it. I don't have AMNESIA or Dementia or some axe to grind.

Iran, is well prepared. VERY WELL prepared and has endured what I would call extreme events post 1980.

I do understand the role, and at times being the police of the world the USA has assumed. Rightly or wrongly installing Anti communist despot dictators in over 85 nations. Dirty tricks and at times wars like Vietnam which were to stop the commies and stop ... nuclear bombs which we DO not want in too many of any hands, so too ... Nerve agents or other WMD's. at times ... harry hindsight can be critical.
I am Not being ANTI USA or anti the role.

Call the police and most scoff at them, until they are needed. Some hopped up drugged out imbecile with a knife lunges, do you stun him via taser which will not work ... or shoot him ? Tough LUCK ... sorry but this is the ROLE the USA and leaders are meant to play globally. NO exceptions NO rules for one as a group and then for the other.

Proliferation is not to be tolerated nor is open and naked aggression. Its blurry and ... in Iran's shoes, he said she said ... as to Nuclear stuff. A valid deal to monitor and NOT allow Iran to enrich and develop a nuclear bomb was SIGNED and being a very VERY good thing for the planet and ALL nations security.

Along comes Trump, with dialogue out of the Regan Era, actions identical and claims identical. Its not 1988, not for Iran. Not by a long shot.

It at times and an opinion, needed for a strong if not brutal seeming Leader or dictator to stop often fractured religions and ones that without suppression of HATE of say inside Iran, and Saddam was NOT a saint, but Minority Kurds in the North, Mainly Shia of which Hussein was and then minority Sunni Islam, without any violence NOT being tolerated and brutally put down, nations which were created not via ethnic or religious lines, as in the middle east but by the UK and USA drawing lines on maps, well ... mayhem would have ensued.

It certainly has post Gulf war 2 inside Iraq. Libya and again a strongman and NO bloody saint, but the people had decent conditions and society. Gadaffi, well removed and the nation is a total war-zone and he, whilst no SAINT ... for his efforts and he was a good boy in the end, eventually he face down died with a bayonet in his behind from one of the ultra religious zealot factions he had to try and muzzle at times by force during his reign.

We are, well not far removed at times from the trees.

I am NOT prepared to believe much of what has been presented for obvious reasons. It is factually inconsistent with evidence. Past claims, WMD in Iraq ... which were myths, makes me less so.

Opinion ? fact ? make your own mind up.

As to history and well documented events, I am Not about to rewrite roles or forget. In Iran's place, a massive oil producer, that lets or has dictated 35% of all oil goes out less than 12 miles off its shore, but NOW it has to watch ... everyone else and their tankers can go through the Straights, expect theirs ?

Hmmm ... All Iron Ore exports banned from Australia. Lucas Heights mainly medical small reactor Bombed, oh 300,000 Australians killed in an invasion 30 years ago, Offshore LNG not allowed to be exported, rest of world must take their iron ore ships 5 km off our shores whilst we can export none, WMD and nerve gas used 30 years against us ...

I do wonder, what preparations we would have in store when its a mere 1,500 KM away to say the person who bombed us in 1981 ?

Iran is NOR Iraq. Its, well ... something I hope sanity prevails and COOLER heads prevail.

I sadly hold not much faith that the USA desperately needs a war to distract from domestic issues. I suspect even beyond well know capabilities Iran has a lot of toys, ones via others, some domestically made that will make the world blink.

Bombing say Libya and Tripoli as they did in the past, is NOT even close to doing it, AGAIN to Iran. Iran in any conflict, has a sad, shameful well documented history.

I sadly hold less faith in the USA or even UK, which has NO leader until they elect a new one than at any time over the last 100 years. USA has had some great, balanced ones who saved the planet despite domestic views say in WW2 and FDR ... he ignored public opinion or ignoring Germany and Japan till, it was dragged in. This, is NOT a great leader, its not even a reality show, this is potentially a debacle with China, India, Russia and a lot of others V USA and maybe UK ... with EU stepping aside.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 16 2019, 04:13 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Hahah ... no not there .... then again this ... stupid new site and font ... i give up.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 16 2019, 12:14 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

I am not an expert, other than a curious observer with a critical eye and some limited knowledge.
My caveat ...

Well ... its pretty basic stuff ... the weapons ,,, claimed ,,, size of explosive in a sea mine is 500 kg ... v limpet 3-5 kg ...

I repeat ... some limited knowledge !!

The size of blast, damage is consistent NOW with the admitted and accepted Limpet mine. Magnetically attached.

Others can make judgement of evidence presented as I have and 6 others sources I shared.
It is factual, easily observed via grainy video ... or simple searches of the internet .. and NOT emotionally presented.

Now more clear, USA, Saudi Arabia and UK, with Israel being the I told you so and UEA in one side and rest of the logical world being the other in this disbelief and logical examination of facts.

A limpet mine, now clear of the 6 ships hit, 5 were hit by a limpet mine a 10 year old could construct. Its small and size of a briefcase. Cost, and lets go cheap, a watertight likely double gasket, making it virtually unthinkable to ever get water inside, cost about $50- at Walmart or a good hardware store. Powered by NO moving parts, a timer and a countdown one on Ebay for $50- with 365 days and powered by 2 Duracell batteries giving if 3 years life another $50-. Then wires …. BEEP BEEP alarm to not the speaker but detonators and and ON off arming switch between it, utterly foolproof and a soldering kit and chances of any fail less than 1 in a million. This is the 10 year old's built version. So detonators and explosives made into a shaped charge, NOT any difficulty there at all. NONE … longer wires one side and shorter the other to focus the explosion into a shaped charge so the main force goes as a shaped charge in one direction. The same side the magnets are placed. The one up against the hull.

Now explosives and detonators, about 200 nations can get, 100 other groups and yet another 500 or so other groups inside and surrounding governments could get.

Magnets, massively strong ones, well I sent my 10 year old to the tip for old microwaves and removed from 3 for $2. the magnets inside old microwaves, which grip the metal side of a ship with over 25kg force needed to remove them. Or of course like the Ebay electronic countdown timer with 365 days I could buy them there for $20- plus freight. All up, explosives for a govt are cheap and we have a foolproof limpet, utterly reliable, $100- plus say $250- explosives. Well under $500- … but if your buying from a contractor a USA one its $50k. Hardly sophisticated or outside capabilities of my 10 year old nephew and a soldering kit.

Placement, well a moving ship at 15 knots or 25 km and hour I can rule OUT as when it occurred. It is Possible, but Impossible for a lot of reasons. One of the 5 totally impossible. I knew for a month it was LIMPET mines with 3-5 kg explosives NOT naval mines which ARE and could likely only come from a nation state with 500 kg of explosives in a sea mine and it would have broken a tanker in two. A limpet mine, a SINGLE limpet mine on a 50,000 ton tanker would be like trying to shoot a raging Elephant with a 22 gun. A marine mine a real one with 100 plus times force would be a battle tank main gun trying to stop the same elephant.

This aside, USA tried claiming it observed Iranian boats, 20 plus, fast light ones operating in the region. Well since its less than 12 nautical miles and inside Iranian territorial waters the shipping lanes GO to get into and out of the Gulf, of course they operate there. Any suggestion the approached the territorial waters of UAE or encroached or Saudi is absurd. Even the massive bases the USA operates in Saudi, in the UAE there is one with 3,500 personnel an air base the operates drones and maintains a 24 hour a day 6 fighter CAP, Combat Air Patrol and any activity would DOUBLE this with I would say 10 drones, 3 satellites around 15 fighters and then we have the warships USA ones, not the carrier battle group but over 15 operating inside the Gulf which would be, lets say, at battle stations so its absurd this new claim. Let alone NOT recorded in living colour.

As to HOW to place a limpet, firstly, ONE will never sink the tanker. Its merely a harassment. An absurd one. It is maybe possible giving the placement of some for it to have occurred whilst moving, highly unlikely at 25 km an hour underwater and IMPOSSIBLE without a souped up min sub matching speed cavitation and making as much noise as a FOGHORN underwater that even incompetent warships worried about subs, all 15 could hear from 100 km away. IT DID NOT HAPPEN … that way. The ships were stopped and they only stopped inside UAE and Saudi Waters. I can now confirm this from more rubbish released.

Now, one of the 5, it was IMPOSSIBLE to even do it whilst moving. The bombs all placed well under the waterline, U shaped Hull, 4 of the 5 the damage was low down the U shape and 12 foot under water. SOMEONE got wet. Suggesting the grainy photo is a recover of a Limpet a fool knows with NO moving parts, is less than 1 in 100,000 chance to fail, was placed below the gangway, in full sight of anyone looking over the side, exposed when the ship went up and down, exposed when it went side to side, makes intelligence claims even More absurd.

One should never use the words Intelligence with the word Military when it comes to these affairs.

So why do we know with almost 100% likelyhood they were placed in UAE waters or Saudi Waters ? Well tanker number 4 from a month ago, the blast was on the rear, and at the REAR, is a thing called a propeller. You know dummy, the thing that MOVES the ship. Even if remotely possible to place a contact mine on a moving target at 25 km underwater, the force is like sticking your head out of a jet at 500km an hour, possible, I suppose but so difficult and noisy to match pace an absurdity to suggest. To do so and a cleanly placed limpet mine under the REAR of a ship whilst propeller is moving, IS NOT POSSIBLE.

Seriously. What crap. Oh and I might add, to place said mine, despite magnets, bottoms of ships need cleaning with wire brush to remove slime and barnacles so mine is flush against said hull or it WILL bloody drop off. So there is little if any doubt WHERE they were placed. In the most intensely monitored waters on the planet above and to some extent below the water for an incursion. Then again a person in a speedboat and wet-suit and hopefully a re-breather system for no bubbles could do it.

This DOES not rule out IRAN, not suggesting it does. But claimed how put forward is ABSURD and if not insane.

Then the fact its ONE limpet meant to not destroy but, well damage. With a timer I presume if they spent the extra $2- on ebay for their timer has 365 day countdown. The cheaper one has 7 days, so WHY would one set the timer to explode a tanker into YOUR fishing grounds ? Or even time it so its passing close to your own waters, as the last one was, why not set it for say 10 days and its out to sea ? Again does not rule out Iran, but, well, letting it go off near you ? It could be a plot within a plot, but in your fishing grounds ? Oh really ?

An aside. My LIMITED NOVICE … knowledge and I share in memory of friends lost long ago, brave men who gave their lives for their nation protecting it on foreign shores many moons ago. We send brave men to protect us at times, and at others, of late, their sacrifices and misery they endure and inflict, is a disgrace to their past sacrifice for even at times misplaced foreign policy decisions. This, current state of permanent war for 18 years its time to just say NO as a nation.

The again, who cares ? One should.

As somewhat conversant in suspected capabilities, if it came to all out, I suspect prior to Iran being bombed from above, its naval side and more to the point missile capability would likely see 30 plus outright tankers sunk if not more, several massive oil refineries and pipelines destroyed, likely a few precious USA warships overwhelmed and if the Chinese have lent a few toys as I suspect they may have, like EMP and enhanced EMP missiles, the grainy 2 MP pictures will be replaced by phone cups with strings and even hardened EMP circuits will fry and look like plastic exposed to fire.

That is not suggesting a free ride for Iran even if it was them. It would seem, being fair its unlikely from evidence present if not absurd it WAS them. Maybe that is the devious scheme, and it was them. Not however from evidence and claimed course of events or claims it was technically only possible for it to be Iran. It was my mythical 10 year old nephew, and there IS no 10 year old Nephew. Building a waterproof container with a 265 day timer and wining with magnets, less than $100- , wiring up to the detonators and explodes simple. Foolproof uttery reliable and to suggest it fails ? Or is SET to explode in your backyard ? Your main fishing grounds ? A tanker filled with oil ?

Iran is seen in the region as a moderate state. I include another decent view from another.

Saudi Arabia has invited all skeptical journalists to any of its embassy offices to discuss the matter and be enlightened.

Am I being a know all ? I think NOT ... or claiming expert status ? Or being emotional ? Or not logical and critical ?

Whatever !! Factual, clinical and presenting it as best one can a complex situation and ... yep ... a more than passing knowledge which can be easily verified by a mere google search as to what a limpet mine bloody is .... and the rest is COMMON sense. Not some gibberish of emotional illogical conspiracy theory.

The mines were limpets. Placed whist ships were STOPPED almost assuredly.

Anyhow that clip ...

"No one else wants war": Vijay Prashad on U.S. aggression toward Iran

Make of it what you wish. Capabilities of Iranian Navy already given.

ASK more Questions. GET MORE facts ....

Oh and I found this amusing ...
Anyhow, USA admitted in back channels the reason for the poor quality was they used USA made technology without Chinese parts. So it looked like a 2 MP resolution v 100 MP the drones HAVE and at zero Optical zoom v 50 times they HAVE and at 5 times Digital zoom verses the 500 THEY actually have. Oh and colour let alone black and white.

Australia is like a spineless toad of the USA I might add. An opinion. The main part of the rest are facts.

One cannot place a limpet mine on the rear of the ship, near the propeller without the bloody thing not turning.

Make of all of it what you like. I would PREFER not to follow the USA. For obvious reasons.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 15 2019, 03:20 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Well here are some more rational clips about this incident.

<h1 class="western">Vijay Prashad: U.S. Rushes to Blame Iran for Tanker Attacks as Much of World Pushes for Diplomacy</h1>

<h1 class="western">Japan Says Trump Admin Is LYING About Iran Attack</h1>

the last one its not going to be Iraq 2.0 ….. Iran is TWICE as bad as Iraq and Afghanistan potentially.

See the above link on its navy.

But the Japanese are saying they are lying, USA, the damage to the Japanese ship came from the air, outside the gulf …. outside the straights of Hormuz just where the USA has a carrier force sitting there with a hive of drones above it, a permanent 24 hours a day 4 fighters in the air, off said aircraft carrier AWAC radar planes and 3 satellites let alone the escort of the carriers assets looking at this region …. the attack on this Japanese ship, clearly from the air, I doubt a bloody person flying a kite near the USA carrier force sitting just outside the gulf would not be MISSED.

This is not an unreasonable, nor illogical nor even a stretch of a basic knowledge of what happens with naval operations that anything is NOT recorded or missed.

USA wants war, so be it. Vietnam and Every drubbing the USA has had since then times about 3 is the outcome. Korea 60 years latter is still a mess. Cuba well that went well. Bay of Pigs a classic.

Heaven help us !!

I note the UK is backing these absurd claims. Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?

<h1 class="western">Witness Exposes Pompeo's Lies About Iran Incident</h1>

On this last one … Japanese calling USA a liar. Hit by a flying object, NOT a mine or Limpet mine to be exact, one that's magnetically placed on the side of a resting ship as opposed to a naval mine which is 100 times the size.

Japanese ship hit ABOVE the waterline, by flying objects. UFOs ?

FBI has been called. X files re opened and Scully and Mulder called in. Another TV series.

Clearly the Japanese hit NOT hit by Limpet mine nor a naval mine, NOR a torpedo but a flying object. One I might add encroaching upon USA carrier task force with 50 planes and 15 escort ships, 3 AWACS land based radar in support, 5 Naval versions of it, around 50 drones, 15 helicopters via escorts and 3 if not a lot more satellites looking down from above.
Oh really ... tell me another lie Mr Trump ?

Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?

Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 15 2019, 03:18 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

It now has been revealed, the ship and video in question was the ONE not attacked via Limpet or magnetically placed mines but the Japanese one where Iran rescued the sailors, when it was attacked from the air, above the waterline and NO limpet was seen below the waterline.

USA clarified this first lie, Not Trump who still claims it was them removing a mine. what a dummy .... Japan the owner of the tanker has come out and called it a LIE.

here are a few other views and balanced ones.
First … is the best one.

Where Are the Skeptics as the Drums Roll for War with Iran?

"Zero Credibility" Progressives Rip Pompeo For His Shameful Press Conference On Iran

Trump Faking Iran Tanker Evidence?

A shot out of a drone via the first camera inside a phone …. is the line I love in this one.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 15 2019, 01:02 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Oh ...
more stuff out.
USA wants a war. it cant win .... a distraction to keep Trump in ?
Bolton ...

10 years ago .... IRAN regime change ...
7 years ago . regime change ...
2 years ago ....
and on and on it goes.

why ... it was clearly limpet mine mine. ...3-5 kg explosives

cost less than $1,000- to produce.

Only way to cause damage as seen last month was being placed whilst ship is NOT moving and that is UAE waters or Saudi where the limpet was placed. But please dazzle me with your view.

I can elaborate as to WHY without doubt the mines were placed whilst Stopped and either at anchor or wharf.

In the meantime the marine capability of Iran is not some idiots in a bathtub.

Here is a decent link. Be bloody afraid for what the USA clearly wants.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 07:25 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Despite my missing Mr Burns icon now on the new site. No PM ,,, and SEEMINGLY NOW WAY TO FIX IT ON THIS NEW SITE ...

Here is part two .... I do have part three as well in mind. It involves flying objects, the X files and FBI called in !! Tomorrow ...
Howdy … again.

Ask and you shall receive.
Reuters report with pictures.

If you believe them mind you. If anything I am in disbelief for many reasons.

Grainy black and white out of focus. Obviously taken from above, via a drone I suspect and according to the timeline in daylight !!

I have watched this repeatedly and some questions.

First the supposition it was some malfunctioning limpet mine with explosives attached to the hull being removed, is insulting and implying incompetence of the Iranian military already.

USA claims this as the smoking gun ? Well …. lets be impartial.

I don't KNOW but this raises MORE doubts than its factual content. YES an Iranian boat approaches the side of the stricken tanker.

I have a 20 MP camera with I think 6 times optical zoom and 100 times digital and can READ a newspaper if I desired at 2 kms away. A drone, one that uses facial recognition to bomb from above has far far superior optics.

So why this grainy fuzzy rubbish on this link ?

It is without doubt taken from a drone due to the VIEW inside the small boat and elevation. Unless the USA warship was right alongside supposedly when they removed this OBJECT …. the drone is the source.

Now lets look at location of where this boat pulls up. Some knowledge and common sense needed here. On a large tanker or ship the ONLY place to get on or off at sea is NOT at the BOW/ Front or Stern, as any sea will have them rising up and down like a yo yo. So when say a harbour pilot gets onto a tanker or ocean liner he enters and exits from the middle of the ship.

A stricken tanker, exiting to boats via a ladder down the side, the only place to exit …. the MIDDLE of the ship. Look up in the video, where the Iranian small boat pulls up ? Right above it the railing has a gap … where the crew obviously exited and likely the ladder still sits against the HULL. So the location where they pulled up is totally consistent with them going … “Hey is there anyone still aboard ?” We ONLY see them as they pull away I might add.

Now look as the actual small Iranian boat. Note on the side two round rubber I presume tyre type things to protect the boat as it pulls along side wharves and so on. If you have ever seen a Tug boat with massively reinforced bows it has often tractor tyres in that case to protect the Tanker or Liner which will get damaged not the TUG and in the case of any small boat, say a harbour Pilot boat approaching an ocean liner to get the pilot aboard the opposite is the case. The Smaller more fragile boat needs buffers and fenders so to absorb some of the shock of say a 2cm steel hull rising and falling verses a fiberglass boat. That is why there were tyres along the side, but this BOAT was going NOSE on to the tanker even clearly seen via fuzzy crap drone pictures. Any small boat owner or novice knows you DEPLOY buffers and fenders as you approach and then when you depart they are removed.

There is NO way in the world any naval officer or even midshipman on small boats WOULD NOT DEPLOY this protection. Without it, a buffer your front end could get ripped off.

I hasten to add I don't KNOW what occurred of if they are correct, but the reasons given with evidence shown even PRIOR to the next bit leaves me going Bullsh%% and total BS ….

Now I mentioned the arrogant assumption and implication that it was a limpet explosive mine that malfunctioned that was being removed. Insulting and arrogant as always the USA view of others. They just happened to place it BELOW the egress and likely exit point one which clearly was used when the sailors left the ship ?

So lets go on. A malfunctioning bomb. Oh bliss. Lets get 10 people standing around said mine when its removed supposedly and then THROW it on the deck. That's clearly what occurred. Lets all stand around malfunctioning ordinance and a bomb, throw it on the deck and then ONE actually kicks the same thing out of the way.

Are you kidding me ? Seriously ? Is this a joke ? Is the USA so arrogant as to serve a grainy video that supposedly was taken in daylight and suggest Iranians are that incompetent that firstly they had a malfunctioning limpet, then knowing it was malfunctioning instead of having one or two people close to it, in case it explodes …. they throw it clearly on the deck with … let me count … at least 10 people standing as close as they can to an unexploded malfunctioning BOMB.

Gee I did go through the fact that Iran is far from incompetent despite this in a military sense. Its not even absurd this USA crap, its insulting.

I cannot believe anyone dealing with explosives would throw something on the deck then kick it. I can however believe that would be the case with a rubber or plastic buffer or fender to protect the BOW of a small boat verses a massive tanker going up and down.

Of course one can never know but on the balance of probabilities and the fact that NONE of the idiots leading this USA side have any military experience of substance and clearly no common sense, serving this as proof ?

I am insulted. Of course I have no idea if they did it, Iran, but this video, is what it is. I would call the USA ambassador in immediate and ask for a please explain !!

Then again we are gutless sadly as a nation verses USA. I wish is was not so.

I repeat again ... I hasten to add I don't KNOW what occurred of if they are correct, but the reasons given with evidence shown leaves me going Bullsh%% and total BS ….
All views are my own opinions. No guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Consult a professional investment advisor before investing. Or maybe listen to someone who has no qualifications disputing irrefutable facts on the internet and become poor.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 07:00 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Sorry don't like my missing icon ...
Don't like new venue ...

this first about Iran v USA .... observations.

Iran Is not Iraq
Lets kick the ball off ...

WARS and by this I mean big ones, are bad for markets. Shocking if they are world ones.
In 1937 as Europe headed there Equities got slammed, Battle of Britain, even more. Pearl Harbor saw another PREMIUM demand and stocks shed another 20%.

Iran is NOT Iraq.

Iraq has been a debacle and its population is 33% of Iran. It was and has been a debacle since the second gulf invasion.

Iraq had three main groups one being the Kurds to the North, and the other the two types of Muslins with both not liking each other.

Iraq was and is basically flat. Iran resembles Afghanistan with mountains.
It has a standing army of 500,000 and 900,000 with reserves.
It is a unified one religion state.
Militarily it is at least TWICE the peak Iraq ever was.

Afghanistan and 18 years latter the ISIS and Taliban control more of the nation than they did in 2001. MORE !!

USA failed spectacularly on both counts. Totally.

Invading or making war on Iran which would be insane to take on 83 million people who already faced a proxy war not so long ago when Iraq backed by both the Soviets and USA invaded, or tried to and Iran was left with no weapons and sent waves of humans armed with tank grenades to stop bloody tanks and did so ... it seems the lesson has been forgotten or lost outside IRAN .... the HUMAN sacrifice and needless loss was insane.

Of course the Shah of Iran installed by the UK and USA and his removal and subsequent hostages of the USA embassy will never be seemingly forgotten.

Much like the Cuban removal of USA interests and this relationship has gone backwards under Trump .... So too Venezuela and its nationalizing of some assets, never forgotten and the current moves have more to do with OIL there than anything else.

Iran is NOT a saint, I am not suggesting this. It is however NOT so repressive as other Muslim nations and women drive cars, without faces covered.

I also hasten to add. I don't KNOW who damaged the ships. I do however hold great .... MASSIVE and well founded skepticism about these events as reported.

First attack was reported as a Mine attack on 4 tankers.
Being fairly well versed in military tactics and capacities, a naval mine of which Iran has 3,000 PLUS modern ones and 3,000 older ones typically are designed to stop an armored warship or inflict considerable damage on a fast moving well .... protected vessel.

They contain on average 500 kg of explosives and on a smaller warship the impacts would be devastating. On say an Aircraft carrier with 100 watertight compartments, much less so and it would take I suspect 10 or more.

These warships and mines are designed to hit fast moving at 30 knots plus targets so 50 km an hour .... or subs which move slower but with reinforced hulls similar power is needed.

So the first 4 hit a month ago, reported for weeks ... weeks that mines were involved. I knew at first glace NO MINE ... naval mine other than a tinker toy was involved. The damage was clearly CONTACT ... as would be with a mine and the one with a hole in its rear the explosives involved were 3-5 KG or explosives NOT a mine with 500kg. It literally would blow the rear end off the ship.

Tankers moving at about half the speed of a warship. some with double hulls but NOT armored or reinforced, if they hit a contact or magnetic mine with 500 kg it would have literally blown the end off a tanker or for the other three damaged BROKEN and shattered the spine of the ship. Clearly they were NOT and never were MINES and it took two weeks if not more to it now being limpet mines which is consistent with the damage. A payload of say 3-10 kg of explosives attached magnetically with timer to go off.

With the degree of satellite surveillance and aerial surveillance in the regions it is NOT credible that it was missed now knowing someone swam to the side of the ship or rear and attached the bombs.

Anyhow .... call me cynical ... with cause ... weapons of mass destruction which DID not exist rings in my mind.

I don't know, but I am skeptical on this basis.
The three behind this ... Bolton who avoided military service with a passion and did serve in the national guard to avoid Vietnam, Trump who totally avoided it and lastly Pompeo who did serve and even went to West Point served as an engineer for 5 years with the tanks reaching rank of Captain. This contrasts with say past people with 30 year careers or Colin Powell with 35 years and a 4 star general with active .. service ... NONE of the above have been anywhere near it.

I would add Bolton and his views on Iran well documented and him boasting as he was paid in 2016 a sum of $40,000 to speak at a USA based Iranian lobby group he would bring about regime change by 2018 in Iran.

Stuff me !!
I would point out the 9/11 attacks were a disgrace in every sense but the fact that 15 of 18 terrorists came from Saudi Arabia which practices the other type of Islam religion seems to have been forgotten as to the funding coming 100% from Saudi Arabia as well.

It had not a bloody thing to do with Iran.
I repeat I don't think for a moment they are saints .... and I have no idea if they did these attacks. No idea ... I merely mention extreme caution and skepticism and Hard facts prior to any decision being made.

Then again war forever ... its the USA motto for the Military Industrial Oligarchy complex.

Iran had a valid non proliferation on nuclear deal working, then walks in Trump and tears it up.
Is he insane ?

Iran air force I am sure the USA could handle quite easily.
It actually has over 30 ultra quite submarines diesel electric which I am sure again, over time USA could take care of, but not prior to them causing mayhem. A sub lying dogoo on the seabed, is quite hard to locate. I did mention 3,000 odd modern sea mines and around 3,000 older less capable but still valid mines. Torpedo's over 2200 is the estimate from Janes ...

Navy ... well again USA could handle that easily.
What I suspect it would not handle is the 1,500 short and medium range missiles. Sure they could get a few but with terrain and hiding holes well prepared, these would wreak terror in an all out conflict.

Again, if it was Iran ... something needs to be done, but .... its not your normal situation.

As for 500,000 fairly competent ground forces and oodles of armored vehicles sure ... at a cost ... they would be able to reduce them. Say costing minimum 2 trillion ... WITHOUT going into Iran. Going into Iran itself given its terrain and the past of Iran is a shame story of western intervention and despot leaders ... Shah of Iran ... and the IRAN IRAQ war which Iraq started .... you would be bloody mad to even think about it.

But here we have idiots with no military experience ... a moron on twitter and a war even the USA can NOT POSSIBLY WIN.
It would be the defeat the Soviets got in Afghanistan, the drubbing the USA got in Vietnam. and the humiliation in Korea when China stepped in backing the North. Multiply that by TWO and that's a low estimate on the stuff these imbeciles are provoking.

Russia I might add is at a 30 year relationship low and the Chinese about the same with similar issues and will they stand aside ?

It will be the LAST war the USA will wage if it chose to go in on the ground. It would be inadvisable in the extreme without CONCRETE irrefutable evidence to even go via the air. The propensity to inflict damage OUTSIDE Iran's borders is considerable. A half hearted effort ... the response could and I suspect would be diabolical to shipping in the gulf and most oil refineries and capacity in the region.

Moving on.
This latest attack.
Torpedoes ?
Really ?

Iran had a lot of them. Designed with shaped charges which focus the explosion and kinteic impact a torpedo on a smaller warship, armored and traveling at 50 km an hour is devastating. On a tanker going HALF that speed, not armored, with the thing full of volatile fuel would likely break the back of the back of the ship immediately.

So clearly NOT a real torpedo. Maybe James bond movie type mini torpedo and his Lamborghini the underwater one ... was there.

It is of course possible .... there is a lighter type but well it seems unlikely.
Limpets mines again ?

I stress I don't KNOW ... but clearly any even basic knowledge tells us it was NOT a normal torpedo ...

I note the USA claims they picked up survivors yet Iranian TV said it did and HAD PICTURES and came to the aid of the stricken vessels.

Does this sound credible or logical, the person or nation supposedly doing it is saving them ?

I just have no idea. I do know when I see the survivors and damage on TV they contradict the USA version. Damage clearly was NOT a full Torpedo.

I would add Japanese PM was in Iran at the time and suggesting they launch an attack when he was there is, well ... even more ... stretching things.

Someone did it. I have NO idea if it was Iran or James Bond ... I merely wished to raise some potential outcomes. NONE of them good.

USA seems to think they can bully everyone from China to even Australia over tariffs and threats. twittering whilst on the toilet an invasion of Venezuela and Cuba to yet again be embargoed is the mad mad world we live in.

Time will tell.

Iran is NOT to be trifled with on a military basis. Its .... scary in every way.

Here is another view via U tube.
I repeat I have NO idea who did what. NONE ... I don't like Bolton as a blowhard warmongering idiot as is Trump and Pompeo.

If god forbid the trigger is pulled, it cannot be won by the USA. CANT. The cost would be diabolical.

Anyhow happy happy happy and await the latest VERSION of the truth as to what hit the ships and who picked them up.
Iran War Drum Beats Are THUNDEROUS

Impacts on markets whilst ignored .... and USA rose overnight, this will make Vietnam look like a picnic.

Emma is a good impartial reporter on these issues.

Take care

I have a few others I may magically share ... relevant in the extreme if it goes further to all asset prirces.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Feb 15 2019, 10:03 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


Out come the analysts reports, valuation is #2.80-2.90 from the ones I got. Share price has stopped for now going down !! Amazing what they are thinking when the head of TLS came out and in the AFR is saying they make NOTHING from reselling NBN plans. Not any motivation to sell them and even worse, the whole bunch is in the same place, selling NBN for no or little margins. As such, of course they are asking for a price rise so they can eat !!

On one hand if it occurs, the price rise, some profits, on the other not good for competition overall as it will make those with their own networks worth MORE. So I suppose I understand why TLS has stopped dropping for now, but its a bloody long way from any rise and a political nightmare already the whole NBN. Basically don't expect the price to rise any time soon as its a political football and we have an election coming.

Basically heads they loose tails they loose for the NBN and TLS the stupid hope of some price rise that NEVER EVER is going to occur until late 2019 if ever, is not a good risk.


Mark K
  Forum: By Share Code

Posted on: Feb 14 2019, 01:09 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


well, a long affair with this stock I have had. Hate it, love it, hate it and on and on it goes.T1 back in the dark ages like most government floats, a steal, then T3 was rubbish. Back in 2000 in a stupid tech boom ... up over $9- I think it stunk, and a long long wait till future fund stupidly dumped its holding at $2.60 ish and then, THEN NBN was a great deal with the 30 plus cents for along time fully franked at over 10% yield and then 13% with credits, one could NOT ignore it. I sold out, early, as I tend to do and amazed it went over 20% higher up over $6- whilst the NBN and underlying ground was evaporating.
...Now we are here, 2019. NBN is what it is, an expensive joke. Seriously a joke and the write-down the government is going to eat will make anyone cry. Technology advances and with mobile broadband in the middle of nowhere, by Telstra at 50 MBS v NBN not a hell of a lot faster and sucky coverage, TLS eventually will prevail. NOT for a while however !! I suspect at some stage NBN is taken over by TLS and the folly of a goverment run bureaucracy, called the NBN with incompetence in the extreme will be dumped as a bad joke. Even if this does NOT occur, the 5G v the 4G 50 MPS .... will soon be lightening fast 200 MBS plus and NBN a whiote elephant in many respects. For NOW, TLS in my opinion NOT a BUY.
... The rally when TPG or whomever it was that was going to build a mobile network pulled out was IDIOTIC. So so so stupid the market at times always amazes me. The stock impact, on TLS earnings was MINIMAL and the stock rallies over 10%.
For NOW, an opinion is that TLS struggles with dividend income and the price here even though its off 2% at 3.14 is STILL 10% too high. TELCO's are risky and at this price, at a 16 cent dividend IT SUCKS WIND. The rally from 2.80 to 3.20 was always stupid when this result was always on the cards and expected. UNTIL the share price represents a dividend close to 6% or $2.80, or LOWER I am not a fan and will just watch and wait.

Good Luck

Mark K
  Forum: By Share Code

Posted on: Feb 6 2019, 02:30 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

with RBA gov speaking and not saying much and state of the Union ....
I note today, as expected the banks a bit off the boil. I do think we are facing a very long road of litigation v the banks. Almost a total destruction of mortgage brokers, similar with investment advisors and even highly qualified financial planners. The latter have an undergrad and post grad degree !!

I still think banks are a buy, especially in the wake of the RBA head speaking for the first time in 21 years in Sydney. Macro economic wise, we are slowing a bit along with China and the rest of the world. As such, rates on hold for some time.

I hope for some more retracement for the banks and just buy them back at 2,3,4% lower levels irrespective of even a worst case scenario of multiple court cases, the bottom line will not be impacted too much.

State of the Union highlighted the extreme polarization of the USA. We have over the next few weeks so much noise going on, that, I will go deaf if I listen. We have Korean madman meeting late Feb, China trade deal, which really means bugger all to anyone, then we have USA unlikely passing the bill to build a wall. Then when one thinks its all over, in March, the debt ceiling needs to be raised as the USA hits 22 trillion. I suspect a lot of fights.

State of the Union a disgrace, seriously a disgrace to minorities and wheeling out people who one COULD only stand and applaud was, what it was. Citing late term abortions, illegal in all states UNLESS the baby is either very unlikely to live or threatens the mother are a mere 1,200 out of 700,000 abortions. On and on it went, USA and D DAY ... whilst greatly appreciate their efforts and sacrifice, it was a delusional rewrite of history where USA on D-Day was 46% of the total forces and did not join the war till post Pearl Harbor. Another dig at EU and NATO and spending 100 billion more, between 28 nations with a GDP of 21 trillion is NOT EVEN THE INFLATION RATE .... its HALF of ONE percent or 0.5% !!

I was reminded More of a Hitler rally than anything else. USA USA rah rah rah .... these billionaires are so seriously delusional that it astounds me. Announcing 500 million to beat USA childhood cancer, whilst anything is GOOD .... when your healthcare is 3 times the cost of ours, and your 15 times the size, lets adjust the number ..... it was 11.11 Million or BUGGER ALL ....

Nope all eaten up by the Republicans and whilst, in the meantime, Rome crumbles.

Sorry, but things ARE changing and I was proud to see the women in WHITE the Democrat Women, its going to take some time to undo what is a seriously delusional state of affairs.

have fun
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Feb 5 2019, 04:34 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Oh well.

that was a short silence ... firstly, Iron Ore keeps being bid up, so even FMG gets dragged along.

Royal commission was, well. a joke. Expecting something, given the extreme weakness in banks of late, out come the report with, NOTHING. So whilst cautious into it, and kicking myself at the peaks today for being so cautious, I just couldn't help myself and gave what I had back. When Westpac is up over 10% off its lows and into mid range, in a single day or 36 hours, its time to pause. Not far behind for ANZ.

Whist nothing directly against banks, ASIC has been given a very clear mandate to prosecute, not dilly dally around. THe report, written clearly by a bloody lawyer was, sadly silly. One hand, to get a financial planner jump through more hoops when they have already what is a masters in Accounting is silly. Doing it to other advisors, well whilst welcome. and overdue, the delay and allowed time is on one hand silly. Other side, is that if you want advice, NOW, there is not going to be any decent advice around and in this making the tasks for awful performing bigger funds who are shocking to keep doing thier rubbish.

Mortgage brokers, bloody hell, same thing, makes it easier for banks in the end taking them out and trailing commissions to be replaced with what. Essentially virtually every mortgage broker, share broker and yep, there are some decent ones, they a ll are thinking about becoming truck drivers. Not really a good thing for anyone. New rules on rural loans, will I suspect either add to the cost of them massively or dry up whats available. Again not a great thing.

In the meantime, I suspect a very dark cloud over the banks despite a get out of jail free for now. The pressure is ON and will I suspect make them all blink when eventually one of the many things goes to court, its going to cost a lot more than ever before in fines. Again, not obvious but when you set up layers and layers of new bureaucracies and new rules on top of a mountain of new paperwork already needed, its NOT a good thing. Its a bad thing.

Having at various times held most of the licenses and holding the correct qualifications and so on, the amount of paperwork doubled in the last 5 years for someone trying to advise you on investing or super. Its now about to double again. What sadly was starting to emerge prior to this mish mash, was investors given advice turning around and making their advisors lives hell even when best advice was given. Sometimes stocks actualyl go DOWN.

In the end, the old advice that will be given wil lbe general advice, non specific advice and for someone not well versed in portfolios or diversification of risk and long term goals, a negative outcome is virtually assured whilst getting rid of, YES the crooks ... about 10% of them. Not a thing done about shitty super funds that are merged into others and cover the woeful performance of the fund manager. Similar on the excessive fees they charge verses very poor performance. I have npo issue paying 2% if the fund outperforms the market by 4%. In effect, 1% of it is costs and the other 1%, it about 20% of the NET 5% ,,, minus 1% so 4% out performance.

If they linked the fees to performance verses a benchmark, well, that would have been amusing.
What actually did amaze me about the Royal Commission is whilst ALlianz got a well deserved smack, and legal nightmare, their actions in Workers Compensation are far far worse than any case they heard. Then again. Workers Comp is state run ....

The other big missing thing, being an old FX boy is FX !! The rates the banks get away with today verses 20 years ago are TRIPLE the spread. Instead of the AUD being at 0.7220 and being able to buy USA at say 0.7170 or LESS than 1% BELOW the actual spot rate, todays ripoff rate for CBA ? Bugger me ... well RBA did not act so AUD was 0.7230 most of the day, its now 0.7280. Using the first at worst, one would EXPECT to any get zapped 1% so 0.7210 at worst !! OR this mornings rate so 0.7150.

Well ... hello MR RIPOFF CBA .... you suck, truly suck as does the dummy Royal commissioner.

It will change as time goes by ....
Here is a live FX rate link ...

Todays Spot this morning at 0.7220 was met with CBA spot selling rate for USD ... 0.6947.

So you loose ... 0.0273 or 3.78% !!

What wankers these are, lets see what ANZ give us ? 0.6964 ... you MAKE ME SICK .... NAB 0.6932

ARE THESE GREEDY PRICKS SERIOUS ? Of course they are, a low estiamte and an educated one, its collusion upon collusion between them and a MASSIVE PROFIT centre that sees a minimum of 125 million NET on the sale side and another 40 million crossing a 5% SPREAD when people try and sell foreign currnecy. SO one side, they CHARGE to get a card, or USA notes, SO NO real big cost. YES they may have to have the notes on HAND, but when your being given 30% of what you SELL at 5% HIGHER in fact selling notes is 0.7577 at CBA a 8.6% SPREAD ....

So between the big 4 they make 3.8% on 125 million a day and then lets day 8% on 40 million when people sadly have to do the opposite. Wow, 3.2 million plus 4.75 so lets be 8 million a day, say 2335 days a year, a mere 1.88 billion and its ALL JAM MONEY. to get notes last time I was charged to add insult to injury $16- MORE ....

How the hell, this was missed, let alone the MONEY GOUGER rates on credit cards which most hover at 20% as they were when rates were 8% NOT 1.5%.

The end result should be a removal of the FX licenses of the Banks !! To get a decent rate, even on $10,000 is very hard, once you get to $100,000- you get one closer to reality. One might go, well the average is not a lot that is exchanged, and 3.8% on $1,000- is a mere $38-, Just multiply it many times over and the average exchanged is closer to the $2,000 mark.

Oh well, whinge for the day. For now, banks were on fire, Suspect, as time goes on and some more stuff added to WHAT is new, the shine will soon slow down. One hand, great dividends and hence why I owned them, but, vulnerable in the extreme due to gouging on credit cards and exchange rates and various other high margin products.

Not about to chase this one higher, the banks, and will let the dust settle with Donald and his speech tonight which, is a WHO CARES .... and suspect some behavior that IS NOT NORMAL during it. Usually its clapp clap clap and being that old, I remember the first time they did standing ovations, this time maybe the Democrats kneel !! I was thinking maybe they walked out when he gasbags on the state of the Union. NO JUST KNEEL .... in protest, over his rubbish.

Things are getting more polarized over there every day.

Take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Feb 1 2019, 06:10 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


RAH RAH RAH .... USA USA USA ..... zzzzzzz

Seriously, I know the market had a bad December, and yep the rules go out the window with the plunge protection team in the USA, but seriously ?

UP 8% in January ? We went up 4% v USA at 8%

Basically the USA fed is muzzled, ignore the shutdown, ignore the capex numbers did not move. Apparently, well its China China right now as it was the USA fed a few days ago.

NOISE and our market is about as related to the USA as China. Or its becoming that way, the Chinese market which has a mind of its own, our market did a lot better in Dec than the USA and of course its massive spike even into early 2019, has stopped like a ton of bricks.

So where did we end January ? Up 218 points or less than half the USA.

Obviously we await the Royal commission report into banks out after close Monday, but, being suspicious, as its the only way to go, the action has been obvious of late. What I mean is that WBC lost 5% in two days to its lows this morning before recovering, but its not rallying much. I don't know what the royal commission will recommend but so far the banks have been hammered into hell. All down in the bottom 10% of their recent ranges and so far away from the highs its insane.

Given the market action and the fact the report whilst NOT public had to be printed, it would appear I did not get my advance copy and it seems it might not be very kind to the banks !!

What is pretty clear, is the insanity of the USA side. One hand the lower end of the population is being squeezed like a pip. The other is the polarization of the Democrats and Republicans and the MEDIA is shocking. Never seen this before, NEVER. FOX is a disgrace and its reporting makes Trump look honest. When you have 3 people in the USA with more than the 180 million lowest, its insane. Same for $400- expense for an emergency the FED now estimates that 40% of all Americans cannot meet this. Something si very very wrong with this picture over there.

Our side, I read with disgust the Tax office report and are they BLIND ? Or just being bribed ? Microsoft when before the Senate had sales of USD 2.2 billion in Australia now 3 billion AUD .... so i go to the ATO tax report on what tax has been paid ? The income was a mere 500 million in sales NOT 3 billion and from the 2012 senate committee the doofus Gates had there admitted all sales are put through Singapore and a tax haven then Bermuda. I look at their accounts ,,,, a margin of near 25% on sales ... so 750 million PROFIT out of Australia and tax owing at 225 million and they paid less than 10% of it ?

Really ?

Apple is worse .... Google and Facebook again the same ... easy to reconstruct sales in Australia and its been illegal since 1977 to TRANSFER PRICE this stuff overseas. Then again a whole lot of Apple cards seem to have made people forget this. Whilst the ATO has tried, its got one year at HALF the expected amount and they went back to NORMAL.

All an aside for now.

Times eventually are changing in the USA irrespective of the wishes of the elite. That NO TAX was paid when funds were meant to be repatriated there from stolen tax overseas is telling. I suspect TRUMP is forced to give a special amnesty even lower then the 15% rate he did.

For now, USA fed is muzzled. Trump makes Nixon look like a saint. Direction of USA market is irrelevant as 30 nations including Austrlaia are about to make life for tax thieves a lot harder. VERY VERY large swing about to occur in the USA which will take TIME. Likely 10 years, but some very long serving politicians were unseated in absolute surprise losses in 2018. Odds ranged from 6/1 to 50/1 and the unseated were spending at 10 times the rate of the people who got elected and kicked them out. To change senate will take 2-3 elections so 6 eyars. I doubt much changes even if Democrats elect a president I sadly think Bernie is too old and some more moderate corporate Democrat much like Obama who took 65 million from Goldman Sachs and then 35 million from Walmart family the Waltons and whilst a nice guy, did bugger all for health and welfare and pensions and so on.

All an aside for Australia.

We have low rates for a long time I believe. We face an idiotic change to franking credits, it SHOULD be means tested to say 50 k or more income verses hitting self funded pensioners. Anyhow, whatever the royal commission does, spank the banks has already occured and if rates remain here, which seems likely for 2-3 years, low rates, earning 5.6.7 even 8% is a good thing.

On the mix of the market, TLS did a stupid rally, whilst TPG is not going to set up a mobile network, Telstra is hopeless and the NBN deal is not what they expected so dividends will, irrespective of TPG likely fall and fall till when I suspect the government will wave the white flag of the NBN as it was stupid anyhow and even 4g gives me 60MBS mobile data and 5 G try 200 MBS ... the plan was, well ... stupid.

I note FMG is rallying like a thing on fire. Sure VAle and Brazil was awful, and good for their overall Iron Ore price, last time I looked and it was a few days ago, the HIGH END high grade Iron ore was on fire an dNOT so much for FMG. Its got lower grade rusty dirt. Whilst longer term have always liked it, was amazed when it recently went below $4- and just as astounded its up here.

All the rest ? Well, housing side is sucking wind and it happens after a billion zillion years of rallying. The RBA and APRA did smash on the brakes and rightly so as did various governments making it much more expensive for foreign buyers. As to the long term, its still expensive here verses income and whilst the slide in the banks may be somewhat worry worts on that front. the big 4 are less exposed than some of the smaller ones which strangely have done better.

For now, we just meander along. USA like announces the BEST DEAL EVER ... with China ... then With north Korea ... YAWN. Why ? Well with loss of control of the lower house, there is a surprise coming in about 6 weeks. Possibly prior to that DUMP declares an emergency and builds a wall around the White House so he cant get out !! I speak of a very large wave that, well, is going to make the close of the Government look I suspect very much like a tea party.

I speak of course about the debt ceiling. In the USA. U know the country that is about to reach its peak population in 2025 when the baby boomers start departing in vast numbers and with record low birth rates, not much immigration legally and illegals, well ... so instead of having 500 million in the USA by 2050 its going to be 300 million, or LESS than they have now, shhh its a secret. Its so we could get a tax cut of 1.5 trillion for the rich.

Amazing place. Right now in Senate three senators are proposing a bill to slash all estate tax over 50 million which effects a mere 1,700 families verses 125 million families. Of course, you may have heard Sanders and others talking a 705 tax on the Rich, THIS IS USA not here. The rich here PAY MORE and higher rates, but NOT the USA Gates pays 15% on about 5% of his income. Anyhow, all hell will break loose in 6 weeks I suspect. ITs going to be amusing and a lot of noise. OH Warren another in the 2020 race proposes a tax of 2% then 3% on the wealth they own. Nothing against billionaires, NOT here or in most nations, they PAY tax !! Not the USA.

Oh the event ... in March in the USA ... the DEBT CEILING ... it needs to be raised to accommodate a 1 trillion dollar deficit in 2019.

I will end with a happy 22 trillion dollar debt birthday party. USA has added the GDP of BRAZIL to its debt pile since Trump got elected. NEVER EVER before at this stage of an economic cycle has a government been spending at 5% deficit. Things are sadly NOT what they appear, USA stocks at record highs but outside the top 10% .... a mere 5% of shares are owned by the lower 95% in the USA. This is a factual number.

Not sure what the hell to do. Our Government, and most EU and other nations fiscal responsibility and balancing budgets in EU has been a priority for now over 10 years. Ours, same thing and with a mere 15% NET debt Federally, we have one of the lowest in the world. Then again if one goes to the IMF they DON'T include even RBA assets as an offset to the debt or the FUTURE fund. They in the case of Singapore report their debt to GDP at 100% of GDP and ignore the 250% of GDP the Singapore govt funds hold in overseas assets. Talk about BS ....

Why the hell we are paying 100 million to the IMF or World bank or OECD when the numbers are so Oligarchy influenced is like how we bend over and let Apple pay NO TAX here. I might add OECD a mere 15 million has identical numbers like the IMF and World bank and on tax collection they DO NOT INCLUDE ... superannuation which is by definition a tax, overseen by the Tax office not able to be touched till age 67 ... and they don't even include GST so it kaes the USA collection of 30% of GDP in taxes, we apparently only collect 27% NOT the 39% reality like most EU nations.

Even more than now !! With the stupid tax coming in ... Imputation. I take 10 APPLE $100- cards and a new Iphone to vote this in !!

Anyhow, USA has its future crumbling and in many ways I thank Trump. Thank him for breaking so many promises and his twitter account with 57 million followers, 40,000 tweets from his deranged mind, He follows ? 47 people and he has liked ? & posts in 10 years !!

The favorite twitter account of the up and coming and I suspect a big big name in the USA in the future, she has a growing base, not even top 500 but its GROWING and growing quick. She follows 2,000 people and in 10 years has done about 2 posts a day and ... thanks ... or LIKES of other posts or comments ? Well over 10,000-posts she has liked. She and I mean of course AOC, has been adding people at the rate of 200k a month whist is not massive, but astounding for a 29 year old first term in office person.

One person preaches to the serfs. and the other. interacts, listens and behaves like someone who gives a FIRETRUCK.

This upcoming debt ceiling should have had the credit rating agencies in panic mode. but like the IMF and World Bank and OECD and basically much all else, its all about the interests of the Few. AUSTRALIA should no longer be a member of each of these. We should prosecute credit rating agencies for IMPROPER taking of money under false pretences. That the USA has the same credit rating as here with 110% debt to GDP, collects 75% of the tax and is ABOUT to hit peak population is EASY for even a blind person to see an issue.

China whilst not a fan of the regime, if asked the last place I would like to live it would be there, under their thumb. Love Chinese here, not a racist thing but China just passed the USA in something else. Its retail sales are MORE than the USA !! MORE.

I do wish the Australian government WOULD GROW SOME BALLS and say NO !! NO to tax thieves taking a whopping 15 billion in unpaid taxes. MAKE IT ILLIGAL with jail, terms is where they are going, but so slowly its killing me. Since Gates has parked his money in a charity, paying no tax to anyone, inviting him here and arresting him is pointless as he doesn't own any Microsoft shares anymore. As to his tax paid at 12% v the then current 39.7 tax rate is and was an issue for the USA, but a sad joke on the lower 99.99%. His actions in Australia, defrauding the nation of 200 million a year for 30 years, cannot go on.

Enough. Its a strange strange world. Not a peep about the USA massive rally in January. Bad news was met with a rally. Government shuts down, lets rally. Every second day as mindless drones listen to Twitter and Fed is backing off. Again and again a rally. Now China deal, it gets wheeled out again and again.

Its about as relevant to Australia as, well, Kim Kardashian. What is relevant to our future and that of the EU, is this tax evasion stealing 1-2% of tax UNPAID anywhere. Not to the USA, not to the nation where they sell their stuff.

For now, our market and currency and whole economy is about as important as the lower 99% in the USA. We are in fact, a new caste system, SCUMBAGS as Paul Keating would say. Irrelevant in the extreme. Our stock market and whole economy just like when the Asian Financial crisis hit, we were sold down the toilet, DESPITE … having at the time ZERO NET FOREIGN DEBT and federal government.

In some ways, I feel like an ant, caught by some monster child with his magnifying glass and I can smell something burning.

For now, with a market I suspect prices a bit too low, I am cautious as ever to the issues overseas. Sure I expect some deal with China and so what, same with Korea, again so what. China and its long term reaction to having its largest tech company held to ransom remains to be seen. The Fiscal side outside the USA is in good order compared to them. Then again so much total BS going on that, well. Sorting it out are explaining it are irrelevant. Sadly 80% of people who voted for DUMP still support him. STILL …

For our side, well buying some shares yielding 6% v 2% at best and sitting on your hands is always a good thing. Each year, your miles ahead. Buying with franking credits something with an effective yield of 10% even better.

I await like most the Royal Commission report and it appears from market action that some more Bank Spanking is in order !!

Back when something changes in 6 weeks

Take care

Mark K

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 29 2019, 06:15 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Yep fine,

thanks. Just digressing as it will be I suspect a driver in future investments as time goes on.
I note you didn't like the left leaning of my other stuff .... its where USA is going, thankfully I might add.

Trump merely exposed how uncaring and totally immoral the 0.1% are on most things.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 28 2019, 08:17 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Hi Why only 200 million tons removed plating trees ... vs 2 billion ? One may have noted the apparent mistake in the above post. Or below in this case
Reason being is that trees die and rot or are burnt and capture of CO2 whilst good, is NOT forever and a cycle begins if we plant more trees, one that well ... goes round and round and actually unless frozen and captured or CO2 removed, the gain is not a lot about 2% ....

Do it grow something, capture pure CO2 and put it 2,000 meters into the ground and its gone for good, or a very long time if done well. there are better things than trees to capture CO2, best of all needs a lot of energy and unless cold fusion is invented, we will need a lot of different solutions from reducing emissions by man eventually to NET 25% then ZERO then going the other side and capturing for a long time the 2 trill tons we have sent by now then the 2 trillion of so frozen in the arctic and then add however much at 35-40 billion tons we emit from now on.
Daunting, but possible. As to the ocean and warming aspects, Coral is gone, forget even trying, what can hopefully be limited is acidification beyond a level too far beyond the 7.8 level which I suspect is 2060 or so v estimates of 2120. Just thought I would correct that, apparent error. Plant a tree is a good thing, but the cycle of life and CO2 life is what it is.

Take care Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 28 2019, 02:45 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


I deal with realities, planting a hectare of trees removes 4 tons per year of CO2. Planting 1 sq km or 100 hectares 400 tons, with all available land pretty much under crop or pasture, if, and IF ... we planted 5 MILLION sq km of land ... deserts ... it would remove for about 50 years, a mere 200 million tons of CO2.

Yes a good thing, but I suspect something the guy you quoted is aware of the math. When we put 35 billion tons into the air each year, removing 200 million tons is, well .... good but ... NOT a solution. I am not hysterical as this thread suggests, just a realist. I do know there are better ways of removing CO2 and whilst trees, planting 5 million SQ km year one then YEAR 2 .... by year 20 all land ... ALL even the top of mount Everest would be covered at the end of the carbon cycle for trees they burn ... or rot and new ones grow up, its not captured forever. Even then 200 mill v 35 billion rising to 40 billion is ... well under 2% by 2075, is NOT a solution some seem to think r believe it is.

There is hope, a small window, depends more on Arctic Methane and its rate of release again NOT covered in any predictive model used by governments yet, sadly a reality.

As I said I try and deal with realities and eventually, whether via massive disaster which probability rises above 50% post 2050 to 85% if not 90% by 2100 of a global crop fail ... humanity, as we know it, changes, or does not. Davos forum did not deal with either tax theft, inequality or climate change and the Oligarchy meeting prior to it was, as per normal more concerned with ... their own issues. Me I am just the guy who, well .... writes stuff, checks projections and at times annoys the hell out of them via asking stupid but obvious questions.

I will not be around either way. I suspect I will see in coming years, a rising CH4 Methane count and exponentially rising one at that. First it heats at 26 times CO2 then via chemistry breaks down to CO2 and H2O but the breakdown rate already has gone 40% from a mere 20 years ago.

Sorry to be a realist, but when the things in the atmosphere that break down one of the worst greenhouse gasses become less and less, I do wonder is even my just assuming the rate of breakdown stays the same and the release is kept to say 100 years v what seems likely 20-30 ... in 100 years, humanity as we know it, around for 100,00 years or modern times say 2000 BC till now, an eye-blink geologically is in for an interesting 200 years. One which, WILL DEFINE us and likely, without early action, redefine the ability of this planet with an ocean so acidic that most life there stops by 2200 or so, heated to 36 degrees at the equator which the deniers seem to have forgotten the last time 65 million years ago occurred, its a race, for who or what survives post 2300.

Oh happy U tube on Permafrost with most of the guys I follow and have met, all ignored .... out of current models speaking on the topic. the best guy, from Oxford is NOT in there, he is more Melting Ice v Permafrost

I do what I can ... and thats, a fair bit.

For the first link ... the deniers claim ice is NOT melting and its NASA ... over 20 years of artic ice covering this Methane Bomb

the second one ...

well its all methane so to speak !!

why or HOW people deny this issue is not beyond me. Its all about self interest and money. Times are a changing. OLDEST PERMAFROST is actually over a million years old. I am not sure they mention the total number ... but its about 50 years of current emissions BUT ... at 26 times the impact due to it being CH4 first then ... CO2 ... Methane hits a lot harder in temperature change ... a well known and simple chemical reaction. So does 1,300 years or doubling of current CO2 impact anything happening in the space of 50 years ?

Yep inevitable as such, cant be stopped even if we tried right NOW ... we can Limit however the diabolical impacts, if we try. IF .... if NOT ... when DEEP permafrost is warming 1.6 degrees kelvin .... DEEP as in 200 meters deep ... stopping this, is not possible. Its changed already. What we do from here, as a species I will watch and try to change.

Enough sharing from me for a while.
cheers Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 23 2019, 10:40 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


The sole financial underwriter of the Howard G. Buffett Foundation is Warren Buffett, who donates roughly $150 million to $180 million to his son’s charity annually, according to tax records.

Holy Laxative,
I thought I had seen it all. Yes MR Nice guy ... pays no tax, bugger the welfare of the 99% others and he has his own private Army.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 23 2019, 10:30 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Ho Hum,

USA actually stopped at the 50% retracement and for now ... going down.

Lost totally in the noise, two things and big things for Australia.
China related, and USA declared yesterday its going ahead with Huawei case in Canada. This is ugly.

Even uglier, the Chinese wanted to come early to next weeks meeting. USA said no thanks. In fact a series of comments by the Chinese yesterday got lost in all the idiotic noise. They were very blunt and very clear about China and its IT rights. They were basically laying down the law in their view and NO WIGGLE ROOM. NONE ....

So whilst this trade deal may be sealed, its unlikely to have any substance at all. If I were a betting man, I dont even think one will be made and China will just be forced to go, get stuffed.

I note, idiot media reports about China GDP at 21 year lows, well 21 years ago, their economy was 20% of the current size, 10 years ago .... 50% the current size. Same argument and view i have had for a long time on this, whilst this trade war is NOT a good thing, China if they had the bloody correct exchange rate is larger than the USA. Its growing of course SLOWER as the overall economy matures.

One a positive, the other, well, the stance is not good for the USA side. I note also that France sent a fine to one of the tech giants for sharing info and its about to become a blizzard via the new EU rules. Add to that, sometime soon a transaction tax for the tax evaders and likely they adopt the new Drongo tax when announced, the clock one might say is ticking.

IBM announced a set of results, the likes of which, well I have 35 years of looking at these things and I giggled when I saw them. The old recurring and non recurring expenses. So we have 10 different rules for how the tech girls in the USA report stuff and trying to sift out the bottom line is becoming tedious to put it mildly.

Our market, well, it seems supported despite the USA cold overnight. Rest of the noise, well twitter reading give me a great laxative dose and try not to do it. USA remains shut down, and the hot air and bluff and bravado coming out is, well amazing.
New Democrat house lady, 29 ... Latino I think, proposed tax of 70% on earnings above 10 million in the USA. Well, it became a 70% for everyone immediately on FOX news ... and gee ... I needed more toilet paper. She is being called a socialist for actually trying to get upper incomes to PAY TAX .... Gates paid 12% v someone on 100k is unable to avoid paying 35% .... and Buffett ... 15% and he doesn't declare much income a mere 50 million at most average the last 20 years,

Please join me in congratulating Buffet with 100 billion or so, given 25 to his family, his sons ranch on the Mexico border runs .... well ... safaris, But Via his tax returns v wealth Buffett is 2,000 YEARS old this year. Yep at 50 million declared v 100 billion ... or 150 if I count some he has given away .... he could be 3,000 years old. Some I might add his hapless son aged 64 has built a ranch on the Mexican border, paid the police off and in a recent article was pointing a high powered rifle at those terrorist !!

I know, you think I am making it up !!

Over the past several years, 64-year-old Howard Buffett �" using wealth supplied by his father ­�" has been waging his own border war in Cochise County

Tee hee ... nothing like your unpaid tax dollars at work. OOPOH Trump declared yesterday that Latinos vote now for him at 50% .... his highest approval rating. Maybe they are the ones the hapless racist worthless son of Buffet has in his sights ?

Have fun
Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 21 2019, 10:55 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


last post this thread for a while ....
The convincing argument of the main denier ... is a really good one ... he however is funded by the Koch Brothers and their Cato institute is so far of right its ... insulting.

His argument and it seems logical, seems convincing as do his qualifications, which. well my 2 pages of mish mash ...are irrelevant. Listen ... and make your own mind up ... OPEN YOUR MIND and dismiss clinically and impartially the crap or obvious.

His main argument is that, pre 1950, there was NOT enough greenhouse CO2 to cause the change. I agree. I totally agree. There are 10 or so ... well known reasons why ... we warm. Sun is number one ... number 2 is CO2 .... three is particles in the air .... four is OTHER greenhouse gases ... on and on it goes.

Something happened in say 1800 and we started burning fossil fuels ... but what this person deliberately misses is the PRISTINE nature of the atmosphere. For a million years, the earth cleaned itself .... not much volcanic activity ... every 100,000 years an ice age as the orbit of the earth around the sun HAD ITS WOBBLE ... a thing he ignores, either out of lack of knowledge or likely his employer.

This aside, in 1800 ... good Ozone ..., NO smog ... 240-260 million PPM CO2 ... same for other greenhouse gasses and the accuracy of the measurements via ICE core bubbles is beyond gold standard back to say 900,000 years ago !!

CO2 impacts at a level of 1 ....
Methane ... 26 times that with a thermal bomb ... until it breaks down into CO2 and H2O ... so what happens when you DIG UP COAL ? What is Coal seam gas made of ? Methane ...

Methane went NUTs ... 727 ppb in 1800 to 1116 ppb in 1950 or 389ppb at 26 times the impact of CO2 ... so ... well ... it must be added to the totals and its THERMAL boom ... is well known. All into a pristine atmosphere ... this added with the even deadlier Nitrous oxide via an impact 5 times even MORE than Methane and 125 or so times CO2 ... whilst in .... PPB v PPM or 1,000 to one ... well as agriculture advanced and well ... fertilizer occurred even by 1950 this had risen 10% or 25 PPB taking and stripping the ozone layer ....

then what happened ? OH CFC impact at well 23,000 times CO2 ,,,, even by 1950 .... **** the ozone layer one hand protecting us ... being stripped away ....

Of course it had an impact ...

Countervailing this ... NUMBER TWO impact on the global warming side is ... CRAP IN AIR ... particulates and by reflecting and blocking the sun ... by 1900 ... NOT much ... by 1950 ... A LOT ... and more so today ... thankfully shielding us. Yep smog is good ... not really but ... some solutions for the future will NEED to address this and more clouds and water vapor slowing a heating effect IS something deniers ignore.

Dig up coal .... METHANE explodes into the air as its released ... DERR ... or I would say that to the main denier who whilst sounds intelligent .. his denial, of what is pristine clinical data is an oversight. Lots of systems as you can see interacting .... smog and sun going a bit slower post 1970 .... limiting rise ... for now.

Enough. believe what you will.
Kiss your kids as their life, post 2050 will not resemble ours. Post 2100, well, with 50% plus of oxygen coming from the ocean and funny thing is ... It hates acid .... 20% of Protein and that's for 7 billion not 10 billion .... its going to be interesting as time goes on.

I can only, with regret, announce Humanity is technically extinct at this point. We however have a very narrow window, less than 20 years, even if one of my worst case things happens sooner rather than latter, its going to occur either way. And that I might add is without any other massive bad event we have seen in the past that alters CO2 quickly. Say super volcanoes and so on. We have enough to worry about even now.

Happy to join Stephen in this one along with 50,000 other scientists ... me I am just the guy they get to build AI and prediction models ... or more often NOT ... I build them anyhow and correct theirs or crap they put into them.

What is of NOTE is the TIPPING point .... where we can do something .... and likely ... Cannot. Or the pain of doing something exceeds capacity to do it. NOW ... if I had my way, painless economically and we the 95% or 99% would not notice it as our governments struggled and did the right thing for everyone. As we go forward and post 20 years ... no change ... the painless ... even possible ... passes.


Mark M
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 21 2019, 10:53 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

PS ....
Unless we go to actually near zero human CO2 by 2050, things are virtually impossible to alter in the future.

Stephen, who had a disease that afflicted someone I admired and loved and she was the bravest person I know, battling for 11 years to watch her son grow up as she battled ALS, Motor Neuron and Lou Gerhigs s Stephen had, I would prefer her son to live in a world without what is an avoidable end date.

Stephen, one of the most brilliant minds of our generation left us in 2018, he however had a view on this topic and whilst I DID NOT and DO NOT agree with his conclusions in total, his view was that in 400 years the planet would be an acid sea and 250 degrees C. Stephen is of course, Stephen Hawkin.

At the bottom of all this are mere chemical reactions, LAWS .... Scientific ones about energy in and out, or HOW certain compounds react, and then are broken down. If you don't like science, then Stop reading .

As to some of the more idiotic predictions of the past, and even now, sea rise and some from the 1970;s were, well ... stupid and the only way the sea will rise a lot is if the BIGGEST chunk of ice melts and that's Antarctica. Unlikely, I suspect in the next 100 years, the stuff on the actual land, but the fringes, yep .... sure ... but they are 15% of the total. Land actually rises or falls, so a rise in water v impact, without taking into account if the land itself is rising or falling makes even this seemingly simple thing extremely complex. Heating of water and its expansion verses, more evaporated due to higher temps, v A vortex effect as the earth spins, FEW take this into account with more water in the initial stages.

On and on and on these things go. But, in the end CO2 burnt for fuel, eventually breaks down. Since most don't know where the hell most oxygen comes from, or most heat ends up .... ITS THE BLOODY OCEAN ... I will be watching with interest a few things as time goes on. One is I suspect, impossible to avoid and will release 50 odd years of greenhouse gasses and I hope to hell its NOT quickly.

Others, seem to think planting a tree is the answer, or using brute force to capture CO2 ... which is in fact idiotic due to LAWS of science and the energy required is about the same ... if NOT equal to that expended in the first place, to turn it back into captured CO2.

As to tree.s and indifference and well .... lack of bothering ... until its too late ... is the end I suspect either way of humanity. A tree .... or a hectare at best absorbs 4 tons of Co2 per year ... one sq km or 100 hectares is .... 400 tons and at 33 BILLION HUMAN tons of CO2 .... ignoring the natural 23 BILLION tons the earth CAN handle and did so for millions of years .... absorb ... 23 itself ... its the 33 we NOW emit that is the issue.

With 50 million sq km of land used to feed us, even if we say planted 5 million of deserts in Australia out of the 7 million total .... needing to absorb say 33 billion tons .... its impossible EVEN to see 5 million sq km planted ... at 400 tons per sq km .... it would absorb ... gee ... all 5 million .... oh 2 billion pout of 33 billion JUST FOR ONE YEAR .... next year another 33 billion .... and so on ... and when the trees die ... the cycle STOPS .... or if they are burnt down .... its not captured other than short term..

There is of course a few solutions .... Green energy is actually LOWER COST than fossil fuels. LOWER >... NOT MORE ... some issues of course are the non sunlight or wind times .... but able I suspect to be overcome. Then again, the OLIGARCHY and their ownership of fossil stuff. prevails ... the need to immediately STOP this excess or reduce oit to 10% of what it is ... is of course possible without too much disruuption economically ... I even have a bloody solution. One the world is ready for ... but not the 1% or 0.1% ....

As to changes, they are set in stone ... some of them ... we cant go back ... its already out there. The solution is likely a few things and NOT what some of the PR Oligarchy types are pushing or pretending.

In the meantime, the Ocean is dead ... DEAD ... not much we can do about that. So too, whilst we hit 10 billion population, the likely-hood of a mass extinction event and starving of not million but billions post 2050 is well, over 50% even now, for me, its over 80% likely a crop fail on a massive scale hitting Africa and lower per capita GDP nations and their inability to pay MORE for food, will be an issue.

Oh bliss ... it is ... as to CO2 capture and NOT hitting 1.5 degree's by 2100, at this point in time I think its MORE not 2 degrees but 3 if not 4. Some serious things missing from the latest predictions out of 50,000 scientists and as a demographer and realist, two things hold the 2 -4 degree by 2100 difference and at 2 degrees ... by the way ... they all agree 80% likely mass crop fail .... the two more degrees have to do with what the bloody sun is going to do and I dont KNOW ... the last 30 years, despite warming 4% in 300 million years, the last 30 years have been a pause in its activity .... so does this change ? I d0ont know ....

A box of crackers for the other thing .... if you can name it ... and WHY its going to be a time bomb .... if it occurs.

As to reversing and trying to minimize some of the impacts .... tree;s whilst good, not the answer ... nor brute force massive energy requiring to remove and sequester CO2 ...

All however is an aside. ... seriously. One cannot compete with a billion dollar funded right wing think tank ... let alone 20 of them. All tax deductible .... best practice science is ... irrelevant. I own a coal mine or oil field ... Trumps ... hahah ... trumps all other issues. Economically things are a total joke and the COST of fixing this, is one that is ONE WHICH WILL NOT BE FELT .... well not by most. But for that to occur, a lot of things need to change and time is NOT something the world has.

enough .... I need to shoot my BB gun at the economic and global side .... in hopes it will change this topic.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 21 2019, 10:51 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Oh golly ....
Gee and ... disturbing some stuff on here.

For education .... a very good, all be it a FEW ... ERRORS still in this guys video. Debunks some of the myths ... and deniers crap

Greenhouse exists.
Threat exists.

Deniers, public ones, three main ones, two funded by oligarchs, one a Nobel prize winner, but since I have quite often provided peer review on Winners scientific papers and at times, not kind. The Prize winner ... in physics who is a denier .... IS AN IDIOT. Paid for mind you. His knowledge is narrow AND whilst it sounds convincing, there are in fact around 10 things that change CO2 and its absorption. SOME happen like clockwork ... others ... not as such. But again easily verified via fossil records.

More modern denier is paid for via Koch Brothers, Oligarchy leaders and massive polluters ... and again, he sounds convincing ... but ignores ... totally so many things.

like trying to predict ... or prove something, there is as these de-bunkers TRY .... easy ways to shred something if YOU ... either don't include it .... or ignore it.

NOT EVERYTHING .... can possibly be verified via old records. WHY say an ice age occurred during a 2000 PPM CO2 level period 200 million years ago IF ... IF ... you ignore and both the main deniers ignore and DONT KNOW via sheer ignorance the SUN is 4% warmer NOW v then .... all be it the last 30 years ... its activity is LOWER than any time ... the SUN itself has bloody cycles.

The fact that the earth in its orbit around the sun ... wobbles .... and does so at measured periods ... in the last 1 million years via ice cores we see ... every 100k or so years .... an ice age as the Wobble in the orbit as expected reduces out put ...

Oh and 260 million years ago ... something formed ... as continents crashed into each other ... erosion itself is a powerful CO2 cleansing agent, but ... something formed ... capturing vast amounts of CO2 ending these spikes in temperature. Unlikely ever to occur again anyhow. I speak of course about COAL AND OIL AND GAS deposits .... as continents crashed into each other, often vast regions of vegetation, co2 holding pens ... were buried and turned over time into coal and oil deposit, AGAIN ... easily verified via fossils and examination of them.

Bother the seemingly credible deniers paid for by the far right .... seem to know little ... then there is some Lord who ... well owned a short shop and is a stupid idiot ... and then lastly ... the weather guy ... polished he is as a presenter ... he however left the weather channel well over 30 years ago ... his
background ... not that it matters ... is BA in journalism ... which in today's world gets one the UN ambassadors job at the UN .... but is NOT anything I would listen to.

His view that recent warming did not and has not occurred, is, well, thinking local weather is climate and with 20 people measuring temperature change in a serious way and since 1979 .... via satellite, the FACT is ... we are warming.

It is the RATE ... that concerns me. The population growth concerns me.

I have concluded, the ocean is DEAD and unless action well beyond proposed slowing of CO2 ... is not done, virtually all life in the ocean will cease by say 2200. Prior to that, well, a lot of things will occur.

I will not be around for them, but would prefer humanity to last beyond say 2300, but this seems unlikely.

Such is life and the needs of the few.
We can however change, but with the political side such as it is, oligarchy running USA and via default western society and we are leaderless .... change and massive change needed by 2040.

Not interested ... is the view of most. Indifference, until, well its too late. I mean not to scare anyone and some pretty absurd predictions have been made on this topic over the years. I merely join 50,000 scientists, and as one of the better builders of AI and projection models for the future, and the model I have post 2050, is alarming and by then, the possibility of stopping it after another 30 years at 35 million tons in excess ... of CO2, the planet cant deal with, well ... it is what it is ...

Take care

Mark k
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 19 2019, 03:21 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Tee Hee ....
From before ....

Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.

Magic rally .... must be Kim from Korea meeting .... or the third excuse in 11 days of up up up .... similar about the USA Fed slowing down raises ....well we are there ... NOTHING ... not a thing can shake this correction. Not even, well, a company that had 15 times its debt in cash, according to their accounts, being bankrupt, within 12 months out of China .... ASIA went down, USA ... went up ... EU and others reacting to well shocking news surrounding Trump and his actions, erased any loss ... to ... well ... any and all news being like it was not long ago ... any negative is a positive and any positive is a positive.
A number showing weakness in The USA .... buy ... as rates are not going to rise .... if its a strong number ... buy .... because its a positive ... hilarious and just play the ranges. Key levels right now. As to shutdown, if it was say Germany, it would be a smoking black hole as the UK found out via Brexit ... but ... well ... nope ... we will have a rally however it ends ... so whilst markets go up and down, the stopping point at 50% of the bounce unlikely to stop them. It should given some of the appalling revelations that make Nixon and his Watergate actions look trivial, the sad reality is, as Trump said, he could walk outside Trump Tower in NY and shoot a gun, killing some poor innocent and not have anything happen.

Strange position I find myself in, one foot or toe seeing the inside of things and the other, with efforts to stop these idiots. The G30 minus one is working towards actually making an impact on claims via one Oligarchy head he paid 25% tax, yet none seen in the EU, Or USA or Japan .... or China, so that's actually 90% of the world and its markets, and overall tax paid is 5%, since we all can now see the other nations tax filings. Times are changing and first step is to make it criminal, the people who arrange these schemes. It has of course always been that way, but investment banks and accounting firms are on notice and should be concerned. A point I raised here in Davros and was, well, told what an idiot I was because they OWNED them. I shut my mouth and took my rebuke as I should have. USA with 3.5 billion a year in political donations, both sides of the fence, then another amount doubling that, OFF the books but tax deductions have it well covered. So 7 billion a year, each year and every year, of course, for them, Democracy and the will of the people is an aside.

Not so for the G30 minus one ... Sure some of it goes on, but the scale of it, arrogance and impact is astounding.
The first step of the DRONGO tax is this criminalization of it ... the beauty of the Drongo tax and tax theft .. the secret os NOT so secret anymore and still the dismissive nature of these people v the needs of the society and many is an aside. After being told I am an idiot, for pointing out the first step, I am not about to do it again. Just push harder for DRONGO tax, a simple fair and elegant tax to be implemented which will, radically alter finances for 80% of the world.

On Markets ...

Oh well, never ever bet against stupidity .... or the plunge protection team. All rules are shelved with the second, the first ... well .... stupid is what it is.
Noise, and deafening ... sift it out and from Davos and the Oligarchy meeting going on prior to the World Economic Forum as per usual, they are as per usual pushing their own agendas. No tax for any member and well ...

Mark K
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 15 2019, 06:59 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


I am well aware of Arty's passing. His humility, sharing and tolerance is sadly missed. 2018, for me saw the passing of a few, for me that I admired and am humbled via their tolerance and in some cases, Arty, and another I shall not mention, I was treated as a peer and college as we searched for answers for many years via chat sites. We via the internet and my own contributions date back to the good old days 1997 or so ... we, via anonymous nics and sometimes no so secrets identities share, share and grow and swap ideas and methods. Then again, the internet, via a lively and at times abusive in the extreme, depending upon the site are in effect putting forward ideas or scientific papers as such and opening them for peer review and open discussion.
All good overall.

I have had, many a lively discussion on various sites and at times been swayed, corrected and put straight with incorrect information or methods. Then again, its more often one gets a one liner, or threats, or abuse, when debunking some stock, or commodity or even theory. My humbling moment of the last decade was a revelation of who one poster on one site who for 15 years WAS .... and he, well, I am not worthy to lick his shoes. Arty, much the same, whilst one thinks charting or technical analysis is a tiny aspect of one side of investing. WRONG and its an integral part of financial calculations, FORECASTING and building models that can accurately predict future events require charting and seeing what has occurred in the past, especially when humans are involved.

One side, Fundamental analysis or valuation, or revaluation is nice and whilst, over time, it works, its the bedrock of why we invest, it does NOTHING to the human side of the equation. Underestimating stupidity is stupidity in itself. Trying to do so with a tool, knowing that, even though a stock or something is worth $1- all day every day, in a down-beaten market, its likely at best to be trading at 50 cents, in a panicked one 25 cents and well, one with a long list of things not going well as low as 10 cents.
But yep, Miss Arty, miss another mate, a few in fact from 2018. Such is life,

take care
Mark k
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 04:16 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

PS ...
I see from your posts about Cricket, Gold and well climate skeptic as well as not a fan of China, we have little in common.
Always, strange and amusing, to present something, logically and as best you can l ... and receive via core opinions, beliefs, and at times, dogma and fear, and abuse.

Such is life. Open your mind, I would say, but, well, its already made up.

Ahh Arty where are you ... Sadly missing.
Take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 04:10 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

sadly. my editor, is on holidays since 1998.
If English is your thing, and grammar, sentence structure, maybe ... your better suited on say a third class English teachers site.
That said. I will, try and ensure a clearer better structured response in the future. I am however excited to be off to Davos and the meetings prior to the World Economic Forum on the 22nd.
Davos, is, well ... I think well known. Janet Yellen and so too Donald.
Whilst I know not much, the ASX, again, is back to its old under-performance v the USA with one UP .... and ASX down.
At times, I get excited and to be honest frustrated and that, at times, makes an already not great writing style, when I don't take the time even harder to follow.
Mark K

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 12:17 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Ho hum,

oh the noise .... the forest is gone and so too the tree's.The current stuff, well ... noise.

It was and is amusing to remember end of Dec 2018 USA had fallen by how much ? The whole year ... ??

OOOOHHH 4% or so .... we went down 8% or more .... and without the ignoring of Dec via the USA it would have been more.

USA via the magic of PPT and well now a muzzled USA fed ... to some extent .... up up and up and we follow but of course slower, for the above reason.
Beyond this, lower levels and recent lows .. well passed but down there and verses a low longer term interest rate outlook here, a good value to buy at 7% or more dividend. Cloud on the horizon and why I suspect, any rally, any meaningful one here is unlikely in 2019 is the Labor proposed new dividend rules and not being able to get a refund, merely just deduct it against tax owed is a really big thing given the size of the superannuation pool and its growing nature.

Other thing, slowly slowly the old tax office with 30 other nations working towards the inevitable end of this tax theft and inversion stuff. They tried, not imposing fines, and well ... the majority went and just changed the structure and went down another rabbit hole. Monday and the ATO meeting was, well illuminating where we are going within 18 months and the EU and a few others likely in three years.

The gist of it is, NO >>>>> NO MORE .... eat poo .... and the arrangers, those being investment banks and accounting firms are to be treated just like someone stealing welfare or fraud via say claiming NDIS or govt money when not providing the service. It is no different and despite the lobbyist for Goldman's our new USA ambassador and thinking he will prevail, so so sorry ....

And this is the other half of the proposed DRONGO tax, which is under wraps, for now. Its neat, its clean and making it an enforcing theft as a criminal offense, no amount of political donations into EU nations or Australia will work. For now, again just noise.

Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.

I don't expect them NOT to try it, the Chinese hot air and NO DETAILS or likely change in reality will I suspect be the spur or maybe the ... ending of the shutdown ... either way, a word of caution is that USA ignoring even well ... worrying things. Fed chief says he is actually looking at the govt debt side and is worried ? Holy hell ... its not since pre Greenspan and Volker any USA fed chief looked over the Monetary side and went ... are you joking. Also, the tax implications of actually having to pay ... not claim to have paid, as a few of the tech people did, straight faced to our tax office CLAIMED they paid 25% tax on profits globally .... when NOW we are handed USA tax returns along with EU and so on.

They didn't pay it here ... NOR the USA ... easily seen via tax receipts ... let alone now their tax returns, they paid it into a fantasy tax haven .... and worse, lent the money to the USA parent at double the going rate and claimed 21% tax write-off, into ZERO tax haven tax rate and then ... with a straight face ..lied not only to the Australian tax office, the EU guys were ... even more upset.

Must run, off to Davros and the World economic forum .... and hoping to catch a dance with Janet Yellen again .... along with the Oligarchy heads and their annual meeting. Since Donald will not be there the dance with Mikaliea is out .... sadly ...


Mark K ...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 8 2019, 02:42 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Ahh ..

our new president .... whoops ambassador ... Goldman Sachs lawyer and so too ... the non tax paying evaders ..

Out of head offices mouth ...

Endless Wars, especially those which are fought out of judgement mistakes that were made many years ago, & those where we are getting little financial or military help from the rich countries that so greatly benefit from what we are doing, will eventually come to a glorious end!

VIa twitter ... President Trump ... since on 9/11 in total 28 nations went to war, Australia as well ... our Nation has been on over 60 ... peacekeeping missions, declaring that Mexico is, well ... somehow doing anything other than what its done for 100 years, being tolerant ... is one thing.

The other is, well, as most Australians and our besties NZ ... went to war in 1914 ... and with the UK paid a horrid price .... I am respectful and thankful ... the USA eventually became involved. I say with respect to their losses and thankful the carnage which was WW1 ended and so too WW2 ... USA became involved post Dec 1941, prior to that, it was involved but only via FDR and his lend lease and taking direct and deliberate actions ... against the overall will of the USA people and again, any victory Australia had if one can call it that, PNG with out next best friends PNG and stopping the Japanese for the first time or in that battle in Africa where the Germans were stopped for the first time .... again without USA and NOT being anti American, I say this with utmost respect to the USA and their losses, that was then and THIS ... crap out of him, should alone have the SOVEREIGN NATION and one that right now is NOT run by a president, or EX lawyer for ZGoldman Sachs or Oil companies via remote, for this alone .... bei g actually a Constitutional Monarchy and head of state IS THE QUEEN .... when this new guy presents his credentials to the governor General, its time ...

TO HANG UP .... remember Malcolm Turnbull ... hung up on by this clown ... then finally meeting him, spent 4 hours waiting ... and whilst Malcolm did not mention the phone call and turned the other cheek, it was sadly revealed. The DEAL in question, well its been welshed upon and of course Malcolm is no more.

Interfering in overseas elections if one just doesn't even stretch their memory is something at the moment the debate is whether out of 206 nations the USA has directly influenced up to the point of invading and sponsoring invasion ,... to even worse in wait for it ... 85 out of 206 nations !! The debate is still out there, not about Malcolm, but how much Whitlam and his declaration of NOT liking Vietnam was one thing but the day prior to the GG sacking him, he was about to reveal we had USA bases on our soil ... Pine Gap ... is still unclear what the USA did because the last paragraph of the briefing is classified for 100 years under national security.

All this is an aside, we are the new Mexico and South America and even they .... THEY have stood up to it. In 1945, they held a conference in Mexico and prior to that, USA declared all of South America was well ,,, theirs ... in 1945 same stuff ... wind forward and in the last meeting, the whole of South America could NOT even agree on a press release as they rejected all and any of the proposals via USA.

One has to ask, and few do, where and WHY ... all these refugees are coming from ? Why are they fleeing their nations ? Is there any relationship between ... the two ? Oh before you think and more than most will, think I am nuts, most obvious and direct actions in recent times ? Well Cuba and bay of pigs and its ... well been removed from being talked about. How about Panama and its invasion in 1990 or 1991 and the leader, Noriega amusingly was the president, Old George ... when head of the CIA his highest paid foreign leader.

But, yep .... send the tax guy to take back the 15 billion the ATO just collected from non paying Companies and STOP pestering the others for tax, ITS CALLED FREE TRADE .... stupid ... that was the message handed to the PM by the new President/ Ambassador of Australia.

An aside, for now to markets as this Regressive tax the USA has, on one hand ... and NOT being anti rich, just that they pay say 30% tax on income like the person on 100k .... instead, as life expectancy in the USA for the lower 80% hits 70 ... Mexico with the second best South American healthcare system and costing 25% of the USA, is being, well ... abused ... for no real point other than racial, Cuba, which we must NOT speak about ... has a life expectancy of 2.5 years more than the official USA number and since I don't accept Hispanics in America, 10% of whom have NO healthcare, thats the illegals and Legal another 10% have NO healthcare .... and 40% of the rest have emergency or bronze Obamacare ... supposedly they live LONGER than anywhere in the world ... ANYWHERE .... in fact 5 years LONGER than the average American and even 3 years longer than Cubans who get to see their doctors at DOUBLE the rate of the USA.

Oh please ? Mr Governor General, both past and new one served our nation. We don't often appreciate the roles of them, or police or people doing bad things to protect us, or things that make us what we are. My personal view and opinion with 5 Great Uncles lows WW1 and my GG mums side gassed in the Somme and well aware, aged 18, a group of friends in 1982 on a helicopter in a place called the Falklands .... Well aware ... and deeply appreciative of the debt we OWE not just our own, but so too, the USA and whilst its sad, we, humans at times come to violence and wish it wasn't so. This comment and a few others via this turnip ... basically and an opinion ... and besides the point, is not respecting our sacrifice, or our besties PNG and NZ or the UK ... who paid even a bigger percentage.

Second side, is economic and sending an ambassador who already is declaring he is on the lookout for China and so on, ... IS NOT APPRECIATED. I suspect, and have faith we as a nation can and HAVE actually said NO ... to China all on our own. What worries me more, is ... the tax and drip down side coupled with Trade issues.

Free trade is FINE but with RULES. If Foreign based companies wish to do business here. we welcome them as LONG as they behave and pay taxes. When we have one company turning over 6 billion, head office declaring a 30% margin on sales and they charge 110% even above GST ... here, suggesting the profit, NET profit is less than 2% ... not 35-40% .... is insulting. Tax office did a stellar job in collecting SOME of this, NOW they have run down another rabbit hole via a new tax inversion ... and surprise surprise surprise ... we now have their lawyer, dressed as ambassador but in reality likely our NEW UN-elected president coming ?

NOT SURE ... what it will take for someone to grow a backbone. Either way, an aside in the greater scheme of things, we didn't need that 15 billion we collected or the ATO did. It only pays for 10 hospitals serving 1 million people and fully funds them for a year. Or could.

Instead, we are balancing our budget in 2020 and that worked out last time in the Asian financial crisis when we almost had a cow going below 49 cents and were junked with Indonesia and every other nation.

Sorry, can we please .... please when the Governor General is presented the credential, as representative of the Queen, he HAS the power to reject them. So too, just don't let him in !!

Of course I live in a world where, well, these things are clearer prior to them occurring. Eventually EU will and given this comment about paying, paying the price, is about them as well ... why do we bother ? Why not invite UK back in to the newly vacated USA bases and tell them to GO HOME.

Its NOT too much to ask, if someone sells something here, makes a profit to pay, tax.

Please send Cindy instead !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 6 2019, 08:16 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

At his Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing in Washington last month the 70-year-old Culvahouse was hawkish on China, saying he will keep a close eye on attempts by China to undermine the US-Australian relationship.

"Just let me say I view the strategic and security relationship between the US and Australia to be strategically critical and I will, if confirmed, make an assessment of efforts by third countries, third parties, to undermine that relationship," Culvahouse told the hearing.

"If there are such efforts, including China, I will not refrain from forthrightly reporting up the chain to the (State) Department and to speak publicly if and as required."

Culvahouse has provided legal work for multi-national corporations including Exxon, Ford, Goldman Sachs and AT&T and he said that experience made him aware of China's aggressive tactics.

"China is Australia's largest trading partner and that gives it out-sized influence and out-sized opportunities to a nation that is already, let us say, aggressive and I know that from my personal experience representing US companies in the Asia-Pacific," Culvahouse told the hearing.

Trump has struggled to fill what was once considered a plum diplomatic posting.

His first pick for Canberra, former Pacific Command commander Harry Harris, was switched to the ambassador role in South Korea early last year.

Two retiring Republican senators, Orrin Hatch and Bob Corker, were both reportedly offered the Australian job, but declined.

Culvahouse is a Republican Party legal stalwart who has worked for Trump and other presidents, including Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan.

In 2008, he was heavily involved in the selection of then-little known Alaska governor Sarah Palin as John McCain's vice-presidential nominee.


can we send him back ? and get Cindy ? OR even Admiral Yamato ? Seriously, an ambassador who, well is already reading the riot act ?

Fun fun fun ..
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 5 2019, 11:24 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


From above ...

I will just play MR VOLATILITY and the plunge protection MAGIC rallies ... OH golly I love them ....

Ohh gee ... surprise surprise surprise .... the non farm payrolls showed ... well ... a well cooked number.

Not unexpected and par for the course just like early 2008.

In short, the week, and immediate outlook.

Shutdown, USA still going, with, well my 7,000 plus fibs going the talks went well, and the people there going it was a joke. Mr 7,000 then going he will wait a year and bugger the 800,000-. Again, an aside as he may declare a national emergency to keep the ex Mexican president out.

Similar, but market loved it, China talks, low level ones next week. Expect more positive, but, well. China has said its not moving on several issues. In the end, it is a smokescreen.

Underlying this, at 21% tax, USA earnings are, well what they are and support the Market.

Fed jawboning and making soothing noises, again a positive, but, well they did say they will NOT be bullied and on one hand the market is now assuming NO raises for 2019, where, Powell clearly indicated whilst making soothing noises, the OPPOSITE of the market taking out all rises in 2019,

Opinion, yep but one as a Fed follower for 35 plus years, again irrelevant, short term.

USA still behind its old highs and yep. a lot higher than our own over time, but then again cutting tax to 21% v 35% and ignoring the impact on the deficit and debt tends to do that.

Suspect, again opinion, as we basically ignored the Dec selloff, yes we hit lows .... but came off them massively, we merely follow slowly a rise if that's the USA way and yet again lag behind. Basically the 3% plus rise USA Friday, we likely get 1-1.5% and so on if that's where they take it.

Underlying this, one side positive and supporting USA and our own more so, stocks with great value and dividends verse very low rates here for some time, conversely, some bigger issues as always and top news of the week was Apple and backlash against tariff crap and if ... its merely a one off or as I suspect a longer term thing. A mistake ... raising prices whilst destroying your customer base.

Oh of course the Democrats taking control of the House, senate, via its structure of 2 senators per state no matter if your population is 50 million or 5 .... unlikely ... to move EVER to a white card 60/40 so the President veto is besides the point. Republicans control the senate and 53/47 ,,, v House Democrats now in charge.

Expect more HOT AIR on Muller and impeachment ... seriously just ... in the end a noise. President even if guilty and well it appears so ... his servant go to jail but he can give himself a pardon and even if NOT, his next president just like Nixon ... who was given one, clearly guilty on Watergate, walked. WHAT IS NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN .... is if 2020 is lost ... the statute of limitations will still be open to prosecution as a person NOT the president ... but Mr Trump. Expect some unusual behavior if the polls show him behind in 12 months. AND as if things are not unusual now !! NO chance of impeachment and it being done whilst in office or very very low chance.

playing blind mans bluff, for any other nation, closing the govt even partially, WOULD and SHOULD have credit rating agencies jumping up and down, IMMEDIATE CREDIT watch and downgrades, especially a nation that promised SOME more tax being collected via amnesty and lower rate. Unfortunately, giving greedy tax cheats, and the tax in question the CEO's were bringing back was stuff stolen from overseas and THIS trade war is again, classic abuse tactic of accusing unfair practices whilst I rape and steal, the TAX meant to be slowing at 15% discounted rate as 3-4 trillion overseas, tax came back ... well that was NOT good enough for them so ... shhh ... its a secret NO tax coming in ... USA budget in tatters ... Credit rating agencies ignoring tax collected at 30% of GDP v 40% for the rest of the world and debt at 100% of GDP and well ... deficit at 5% plus ... the new tax dodge from the tax evading creeps is to park all the stolen tax not paid to EU and japan and every nation over the last 15 years since the last amnesty ... park it in a tax haven ... then announce as though its come back into the USA massive buybacks which on the main are now already over .... buybacks as the capital gains tax at 15% v 35% plus personal rates are too high ... so Apple buys 9 billion of stock 33% higher ... let alone old GE and its 20 billion 400% higher ... great for P.E and earnings ,,, but this latest tax idea out of the investment banks is to PARK the actual stolen tax .... in a haven, with NO TAX, then LEND the money from the tax haven and earnings are TAX free ,.,,, whilst charging the COST ... yes a legitimate COST ... in interest expense whilst earning a tax deduction at 15% and paying NO tax the other side ... awaiting the NEXT tax cut Mr Dump has planed and the next amnesty ... at 5% v 15% v what used to be 35% tax.

I wonder how they will like the new DRONGO tax coming out soon ? All with shiny penalties and actual jail terms. But that's late Jan 2019.

Again, an aside, I really don't expect the credit rating agencies to act, NOT EVEN MURMUR ... even with the govt shut down, even with well a missing 250 billion corporate tax collected, let alone idiotic estimates on increases in collections .... all this is an aside, until, well it isn't.

But I can. in one press conference after outright telling a lie about the meeting with House and saying it was very productive and going very well, in seconds go to. ... oh it may be a year shutdown .... to ... well I can call a national emergency because the Mexicans are NOT paying for the wall ? God I love the circus it all is.

Strangely ... jawboning and plunge protection team .... and so on.

Meanwhile ... things festering and actually changing out there. Santa gave a few backbones to people r so it seems and if the absurdity of, what is going on, NOT ... the underlying stuff ... the stupidity of having to watch a govt dismantle every protection for the consumer via presidential decree and having ex lobbyists who championed destruction of various things NOW in charge of agencies meant to protect them is ... well, what it is.

Happy 2019, but for now, up up and away ... making Mr Paulson ex CEO of Goldman Sachs in 2008 look not like a pig, then again Cohn another ex ceo and his budget of 2018 ... after paying himself 300 million departing Goldman sachs ... to become the 5th successive ex Goldman bunny or zombie running the budget and social security and Medicare ... cannot I suspect be t0opped ... oH no its Munchkin ,,, same thing ex Golmans .. Cohn was merely the advisor to the president ... same thing ...

Ahh ,, we live in hope ... and stupidity awaiting a comment out of the IMF or even Fed on the Fiscal side. The USA fed, whilst the new guy ... has some backbone ... IGNORES and in this the only real central bank in the world that ignores the Fiscal side. HENCE ... they have a massive sloppy big stimulus with over 1 trillion YEP 1 trillion deficit in 2019 .... and well ... rates tightened and almost ... at CPI. So one hand push and the other pull ...

Leaving all of it ... yawn ... pick the eyes out of the volatility ... ignore the noise and hoopla. Its a distraction and to need to be the headline every single day is tiring as a child throwing a tantrum. I just read wearing yellow makes you look bugger, not orange, maybe some yellow gloves to make his hands look good may distract him ? Maybe a Chinese finger puzzle is the go, he is to arrogant to ask for help and it would be amusing to see him with two fingers on opposing hands stuck together for the next 2 years.

Take care
Mark Kahuna
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 4 2019, 06:36 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

well basing a view upon non bias clinical approach and scientific scrupulous based approach I always find helpful.
Hard to do, hard to ... convince anyone of anything ... have a read of some of the oil threads pre GFC and Uranium ... one can present a case, clinically and methodically that, well turns out 100% or close to it accurate, but at the time seems like many if not most of the noise out there.
Of course, fundamentals, Supply and demand vs stupidity or greed, can and will never measure up. Buying say something worth $1- every day in a bear market trading at 50 cents and the $1- value is actually growing at 15% so doubling in 5 years can see the share sit and sit and sit and sit for years of course pre 2000, and then like a new dawn, they go, well they just paid a dividend that was 80% of their price and can pay it every year for the next decade ....
Lots of gems in the old days, now, not so many.

Predictions for 2019 and beyond.
Violent markets punctuated by massive illogical rallies just like in 2008 with the plunge protection team .... gee we have already seen 4% in a few hours ... 5% once ... and splat ... again.
Second, well the republican movement is ... gone for a very long time in Australia.

Third is easy, Low rates for some time, years of it.
All easy ones ...
More difficult ones ? Well ...

another thread .... another time ...

have fun

Cheers Mark K

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 4 2019, 04:41 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Ah yes,

Lots of things going on .... the LIST of things actually gets bigger ... and smaller.
One big thing has occurred, not the out-performance of USA v rest of world, the cycle .... and tide is changing whatever may be in the future.
Sure, seemingly not much has changed of late, but China is NOT really going to change, changes to date promises and tax cuts, supposed boosts to tax via repatriation of taxes in the USA did not occur .... and in the process, we, we Mexicans, and how gracious was that ex president in saying despite the LOVE hate its had for over 100 years and say Hoover in 1930 blaming them for the great depression and sending them back ... to FDR begging them to come back and fill jobs vacated ... by servicemen to .... when someone was 8 introduced Operation wetback and sent them all back in 1954 ... US president Eisenhower, not many officially sent back but open lynch gangs managed to have millions flee USA. Young president in 2019 was 8 and still in nappies being breastfed ... so even at 70 he still doesn't understand it was ... wrong.

Current policy of the wall ... much the same ...

a few things I suspected and did NOT share, well only with ones that I give thoughts to for work or ask for it .... Tesla sales falling 70% was denied ... admitting they had fallen a lot ... but NOT how much cut prices to UNDER COST to try and win back those Chinese Mexicans. Their mood inside china and yep I read their press, is NOT happy.
I went ok ... then China clearly indicated, not once ... not twice but three times on some issues ... GET STUFFED USA on this trade crap. Samsung and APPLE spent 10 years in courts .. cross suing each other ... Apple won a bit, but hardly worth it. Instead, unilaterally all trade is hit and .... I spit in your food ...
really ....
Oh and then we come to apple. Oh so diplomatic to a market of 20% plus they just .... had sales that ... were shocking. This was WITHOUT China who is NOT a nice state doing anything like making social points system if you buy any USA made product you earn minus 2,000 points and it basically removes your passport and then housing and so on ... the more you buy.
Its not just them, EU ... all under attack via threats via USA ... Canada ... we almost ended up with them.
But for now ... thankfully the plunge protection team is there ... again ... the annoying thing they wheeled in early 2008 when time and time again that PIG of a man Paulson called it all over, with the market down a mere 6% from all time highs .... it only fell and fell and fell some more.
Apple, who pays no tax ... but lots of political donations, so too the rest of the gang ... the world is a changing and facebook that clown did not bother turning up to the EU and 28 nations with a GDP and population BIGGER than the USA so they conducted the meeting with an empty chair ... EMPTY ....
except for a photocopy of his face stuck on it which they asked questions to !!!

China policy .... exporting costly labor intensive jobs was fine ... till it was not.
Things, well change and my first digital cheap phone was under $100- now 0i n0eed ... supposedly a $1,400 one .... I happened to buy one which had all the features of a good smart one for $200- with a massive battery ....

Pointing out something obvious, when it is clouded in noise, is .... well ... what I tend to do. Pointing out that Australia has 15 billion More funds and will hit a surplus ONLY because oh 10 or so ... mainly overseas companies got hit with ONE SINGLE years tax bill ... and now have run down another tax inversion hole ... EU and here likely to introduce Tax on turnover to combat this ... but the NEW solution is the top secret DRONGO TAX bill about to be unveiled ... and its about time. Stuff them.
Either way, its ok they have run up 2 trillion More debt in the USA ... in 12 months, More than the GDP of Brazil ... they got their wish with corporate tax going from 35% to 21% and supposedly the repatriation of 3 trillion in overseas unpaid tax was meant to NET around 10% or 300 billion in USa taxes ... sadly giving a cheat a green card, never works.
But for now, debt NOT an issue especially when beyond the world bank, fed now slightly independent with the cult removed, the credit rating agencies and treasury and commerce and a long list of others till in full control of OLIGARCHY and rightly so ... they know whats best. For them.
TIDE is out, on USA based goods ... sorry but ... people in even Canada are not amused let alone EU nations.
TIDE is going out rapidly on tax theft and ... DRONGO tax is about to be unveiled .... along with the expected revenue tax on turnover coupled with well ... some interesting things that will make CEO's of these places even blink without their eyelids as the Google and Amazon ones never had them.
I have been I suppose watching and seeking ... and wondering for 20 years, even 30 ... EU shows fiscal restraint, balances budgets raises tax a few percent to 40% of GDP to pay for healthcare costing around 7% of GDP in their nation ... USA well .. Clinton had tax up near 37% of GDP and along comes George W with two massive cuts to tax, spending like NO tomorrow and healthcare costs explode .... or course NOT in the CPI and USA collects 30% of GDP in tax v EU at 40% Oz at 38% if one includes the correct things like super and gst and workers comp and so on ....
So how does a nation pay for healthcare for its people at 21% of GDP only collecting 30% overall at all levels of government when say 28 EU nations collect 40% of GDP and healthcare costs 7% of GDP ?
It doesn't pay for healthcare.
It doesn't pay for pensions promised and paid since 1933 ... called social security ....
what happens to you without decent healthcare ? ... oh go ask Afghanistan or Sudan ... not good examples with under 50 life expectancy ... but say other nations with life expectancy of 60sih all have ... the same thing ...
Welcome to the lower 80% of America.

Sorry ... it is after all irrelevant in the extreme. Longer term, what USA wishes to conduct via indifferent OLIGARCHY an experiment that has ended the same way ... in 100 nations ... over 1000 times since 2000 BC is ... well ... their right. As is it my own, to voice dismay at being forced to watch it. Of course, even this is ... an aside, one goes looking for one thing and finds another. But we shall get there. baby steps from now on.
LOVE and a big hug to you .... I love you and ... just don't read my stuff if it annoys you, or upsets you. Buried in there, some gems, which you MAY or may not decide are worth taking action on. When a company basically tells me its sales for 20% of its overall sales are DOWN and DOWN a lot, whether its 20% or 70% ... when there are similar issues being felt in markets under attack, external attack from outside ... via belligerent abuse ... I believe and have faith boundaries such as the NEW DRONGO tax about to be unveiled globally ... will knock these little dictators socks off. As to buying food when someone has literally spat in it .... or on you ...
Only time will tell how much brand damage has been done ... in the case of APPLE its lights off either way, yes I spat in your food, or some dummy did ... viaa their action ... and I am going to charge you 110% MORe for the new phone ...

good luck.
Cheers ... now go hug someone and tell them you love them.

Mark M
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 08:13 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Oh well ... times change and times are the same.

Same stuff new thread, the old one is locked, I have been ... busy.

Will periodically update some stuff.

Merry Christmas and happy 2019. My very very large brain is hurting .... OH and that's something I have issues with even repeating !! The world changes and spins, and things remain the same. THE amount of pure NOISE and BS is deafening and the older I get, I actually know and accept how LITTLE know or even thought I did. I knew it all aged 18 in 1982 and now, well 36 years latter accept with grace, how little I knew then and even now.

Over the years, with the help of some very patient and smart people, none of which rubbed off on me !! I have become, well GREY .... hahaha ... but more and more accepting of the world. I can and have over the years spoken of many many many .... sshiiit I am sounding like that D grade reality show guy, the B grade Movie actor known as Regan was in power and Greenspan was about to get his reward for the Greenspan commission that on one hand CORRECTLY predicted they needed to save a lot more in the USA and massively raised Social Security taxes, Only to have Regan give THE BIGGEST tax cut ever around 3% of GDP ... then again some dope claimed his tax cut of late was the biggest at 0.9% of GDP.

As some, who have followed, on various places, since 1998, 5,000 or so posts, on various things, NOT shares alone but the things THAT make things go UP and down, some sites on demographics and advanced modelling and even one of the worlds largest Mental health sites for people dealing with people with SERIOUS ILLNESS and those being sociopaths or Psychopaths or the more common flavors of it Borderline Personality Disorder and Narcissistic Personality Disorder and so on. It is relevant to markets, and economics and VERY much so in this day and age. I was made a bloody ambassador to one of the sites for my community service and counseling VICTIMS, not those with it, as always its the people HURT who seek help !! Those afflicted, have little or no conscience, no remorse and NO REGRETS, no shame and actually a common trait in most of them is to rewrite history.

I could go on, and an ability to SWITCH one attack to another, maximizing something, say a fault and MINIMIZING another and throwing an accusation in and seamlessly switching from lying to I hate you, then I love you, OH I want to kill you, and all the time gaslighting your very soul, chipping away and leaving you with NO idea who or what you are. Oh lots of tactics and as a counselor and .... well bugger me ... an ambassador, the strange and FUNNY to someone cured and well past the pain and helping others is the language and tactics and even words are IDENTICAL at times despite say helping someone in say the UK or someone from Sweden or NZ.

Oh and the favorite tools, are bringing a machine gun to a fist fight , or recently it was nuclear bombs to a discussion that went from I hate you to I love you and your my bestie !!! Second is the old accuse the pother person of something that ... YOUR DOING ... they are on the defensive, and if they defend you with NO conscience or compassion or anything rip them to SHREDS.

YOU CANNOT .... EVER ... win a discussion, argument or even present logic to these types, then again to followers of faith, or paid PR types or delusional ... same thing. Oh have I had some funny economic discussions over the years.

There is of COURSE no excuse for violence and NONE whatsoever for it, or abuse, or hidden abuse. It leads to the abused eventually becoming CO- Dependent and suffering abuse syndrome and PTSD and even Stockholm syndrome. One wonder WHY an abused person and YEP guilty stays in abusive relationship ? Some its physical, some its extreme verbal and cruelty and so on and so forth. Some it kindness, some compassion and being given a choice to believe someone is the poor innocent one, is my sins among others, in extreme and prolonged cases, even short ones, wishing for even a pause, and they become briefer and briefer as they cycle from I love you I hate you ....

just some rules for this .... of COURSE ... BOUNDARIES are the only solution and like expert sneaks, they nibble away at defenses and eventually ... you end up as accepting things, it you still had your right mind you never would !! NOT IN A PINK fit .... Oh I am sorry I spat in your food you just ate, will you be coming back to dinner ? Or I just put a whopping tariff on your goods, will you still be buying goods from my country ?

ASK APPLE .... Today about that. The Chinese actually with their NEW social points system COULD have added massive negative points to buying USA made goods, THEY DIDN'T need to because the Media in China is with cause tearing USA and its game to shreds.

Easy prediction is that the USA brand name is, well forever damaged by these antics.

Free trade of course NEVER EVER works without rules. But instead of, well, enforcing the rules, the agreements went out the window in a populist wave and hey presto, fines.

Sure most will have views on this but Apple pays NO tax anywhere and even when they do get caught up with, they slip down another hole. So too the rest of the bunch.

Australia in 2020 is about to get a surplus, without ... WITHOUT ... the 15 billion collected from evasions, this NEVER would have occurred. Basically enough to build and fund 5 very large regional hospitals here and FUND THEM FOR 10 years !!

We I might add had to BEG .... BEG not to be included in this tariff wave and EU and Canada along with China lock horns still. Mexico, went well .... whatever .... why ? Its trade balance is TWO WAY and BALANCED and whilst China I am not suggesting has been closed to investment and trade, is, what it is. Either you wanted goods made at $2- an hour labor costs or $20-.

Back to abuse stuff ...
World is suffering PTSD and at best Stockholm syndrome .... Economically.
Not a prediction, sadly a fact. Let me distract you, accuse you, then send in the likes of Apple and Google and Goldman Sachs and Chevron and PAY NO TAX .... and if your complaining ... Oh and Glencore who the last two export billions in resources yet pay NO tax ... here.

Sorry pet topic tax inversion and THEFT .... but ATO has done a great job, but only got .... 20% of it ... yep ... its that large ... the theft.

Dealing with abusers and wife bashers and violence in the form of economic terrorism for the NEW ORDER ... of USA based Oligarchs, NO not a conspiracy theory, sadly a fact the tax paid ,,, the ONLY SOLUTION ....

IGNORE the abuser ... IGNORE them .... and if it was a relationship, the poor battered soul eventually gasps for air and .... the ONLY .... ONLY way to get away from the diseased is LEAVE and NO CONTACT.

Contact ... ANY CONTACT ... listening ... EMAILS and TWITTER .... what a joke ... is POISON. The ABUSER seamlessly will creep back in and the battered wife is BACK on promises of they will CHANGE. Individual cant change and sadly at times nations, loose their way. For the individual usually something traumatic happened in younger years, not hugged enough, wet their pants till they were 14, breast fed NOT enough or like in game of Thrones that young price till age 14. An aside...


GROW SOME BALLS and ENFORCE boundaries may be a stupid wish for 2019, but economic terrorism is something I have commented on time to time. SADLY is TIME again.

Watch this, ex president of Mexico and a nation with one of the better healthcare systems run Universally for its people, IT A CLASSIC and will make you laugh.

Paying attention to idiots, abusers and well .... stupid ... and I am not being arrogant in this, merely many years has taught me to present a scientific unbiased case, and impartial, clinical and NOT linking stupid cause and effect or bogus models .... and EVEN then .... of course humans will choose. As they SHOULD. Having done so, on some very vigorous discussions that were fan clubs and PR central for companies and being critical of a claim via a company is .... NEVER welcome ... but pointing out the study or PRODUCT or accounts are BOGUS ... is of value to some.

Some, WILL NEVER be convinced and sadly, the Uranium discussions I have had is just one of many in say 2007, going ... gee there are 7 new mines coming on Line in Kazakhstan, Olympic dam as 75 years of WORLD supply costing NOT a lot to produce as its a BY product .... v Copper and gold and silver ... the SHORT term supply situation caused by a few one offs evaporated and even the prediction about 50 year old reactors NOT being so safe and NEW reactors ... WILL cost 5 times predictions ... NOPE ... it is what it is. PRESENT your case and RUN.

Reality, RELIGION and POLITICS and investing .... one supposedly should not discuss any of them and GOOD reason, Faith based ideals vs scientifically unquestionable WILL NEVER agree. Nor people faithful to a party, and THIS is 25% NO MATTER what and closer to 40% will hold those beliefs. Investing and I am an old fart, those who know WHO I actually am, which is NO ONE from NO where ... to have Joe Hockey read out 90 seconds word for word about tax inversion of something I wrote in his last speech was amusing ... same for two of the largest funds and hedge funds in the world about Inequality in the USA ... and ISSUES ...

IT DOES NOT ... mean one is ALWAYS right. LISTEN and make your mind up !! Not to me, but to anything presented to you as FACTUAL or REAL. So many things presented as correct are mere, well, crap produced by those who have vested interests and going back to something NOT so topical, Uranium ... the supposed ... experts were ... WERE lobby groups paid for by the USA Nuclear Plants.


BE VERY CAREFUL and SKEPTICAL .. in the extreme of statistics, one of the things I have shared in the past, is BREAKDOWN of SOURCE data and methodology of STATISTICS ... and POST 2000, USA has gone from BAD ... to WORSE THAN ZIMBABWE

Enough ... drivel for now ....
In December ASX 200 outperformed and CAUGHT UP with the USA equities .... Nealy ending positive ... V USA.

Then again, under-performance V USA is massive, or was, but we decided NOT to trade Medicare and various other things for 21% tax and 90% to the top end ...

Stay cool ... lights are changing and time for SOMEONE ... somewhere to SAY NO .... I joked about the USA ambassador the NEW one ... the girl about to have her meagure $180 per month food stamps cut off ... for MRS Gates and co, I would suggest sending the ambassador back to the USA with a protest ... on comments about USA fighting our wars ... when US and NZ and UK .... paid a toll. so horrific in WW1 it defies discussion but 5 times the USA losses per capita. So on one hand GLAD they stepped in ... forever thankful ... same for WW2 and without Coral Sea and Midway, and again not to belittle anyone's losses .... I merely object as always to the obvious. When 9/11 occurred, actually 28 nations, yes 28 ... went to WAR .... not just one. Our contribution in the last 100 years, has been ... 60 odd joint ones.

Strange strange world we live in .... have some more OBVIOUS truths and no, I actually love 99% of Americans and are deeply grateful ....

More important things going on .... even than that ... but most important ... tell someone you love them ... give them a hug and TELL THEM WHY ... markets, hot air and the rest ? Will do better with sharing a view in 2019 for what its worth. Lost a few in 2018, ARTY and some others who have astounded who the anonymous were in reality and DEEPLY humbled and appreciative of their help, guidance and tolerance at times over the years.

GO HUG them ... NOW
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Dec 17 2018, 03:45 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Whoops ...
editor as usual away ....

By long on the bonds, I mean long dated and being 25 years plus. In the QE i was first Treasuries then even longer treasuries they purchased then a lot of mortgage backed swamp paper even longer dated 30 years or so .... they have.

Just read the previous few posts and have to laugh ... at cycles and how times change ... TLS loved it at $2.80 for the NBN deal and yield ... sold it at too low ... a price ... well below the highs but did enjoy years of that 10% plus dividend and franking credit taking it into absurd levels ... now ... well back to square one again. Not quite but funny they sold their copper network ... and NBN is, well what it is ... I get 4g at 50 MBS and NBN at half that if it works ... which it doesn't even exist in the country town I live in.

Banks, well ... used as the personal piggy bank of the govt for tax of late, bashed senseless for ... years being naughty but sometimes for making money ... we are NOT back to the $20- for ANZ and so on I loved 2011-13/14 ... but not that far away. USA on the other hand, well its a mere 150% of our markets performance last 5 years. Nothing like giving the needy a tax break !! The corporates .... and as to their accounting, over 50% use, well ... methods not accepted outside of Zimbabwe.

Our market went up less, and for once, should fall less. Despite the noise, some serious things going on globally and as per normal, when our new PM met the DONALD and he had his German translator there, because after all we are Austria, these rumblings via 99% of the rest of the world the USA is oblivious to.

In this, nothing unusual, but, just more of the same. I suspect, the damage is permanent and serious. Then again, Apple seems to think $2,000 for a phone is ok when Huwai makes one not that far apart for $400- and I see a great LG one at $299= with double the battery life .
Our Tax office has done a great job and the only reason in 2020 we will hit a surplus is via .... making some of these tonks pay tax, they have got about 30% of it .... an at best ... result is say 60-70% and the proposed tax on turnover for the likes of Google and Facepoop and others should have them more spooked than they are. then again we are only 5% of the market. China whilst no silly Facepoo, actually has social credits and reading their media the tone is, well, as expected bad.
Then again, Mexico gave Donald Junior or whatever his son in law is called a medal ... even after what I would call outright abuse economically and every other way .. it looks strange to me ...this medal .... but what do i know ....

Merry Christmas
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Dec 17 2018, 10:29 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

how things change ... and not.
Just an update on this, its NOt 2013/14 and the dummy tightening spit ...
as suggested then, EU bonds under political attack and economic warfare tactics as credit rating agencies downgraded nations collecting 40% of GDP with debts of 100% of GDP and ignored USA with a mere 30% of GDP collected and a debt of 100% of GDP ...
Not much changed ... as to tax ratios ...Bond rates in EU however have fallen massively as debt to GDP overall has fallen nearly 10% overall whilst USA ... goes up and up. Its in fact added the GDP of Brazil in 2 years and nearly hitting 22 trillion. Services slashed and in real terms pensions via social security at awful levels ...
With most things, there is a release valve and its HUMANS and the USA official life expectancy fell by 0.1 of a year AGAIN as EU went UP 0.1 of a year again. Officially its at 78.6 years, but with most propaganda states like Zimbabwe and post 2000 USA statistics the methodology when examined is absurd and deliberately so. Even so, even the official numbers are chilling and with healthcare hitting 20% of GDP and effectively only sub 90% have cover, it is what it is ... the worlds largest genocide or in this case democide.
Not a debate about the cause and effect of income and wealth verses length of life, but in 2019 will go into great detail on these and other things which are driving markets of late.

Back to the USA fed, as I suspected late 2013, the break even on the bonds was around 3% and they were very long ... the 3 trillion of them on the USA feds books. As of end of Sept 2018, the USA fed released an actual mark to market and it was MINUS 66 billion. Its NOT 2013 and the spread between 10 year and 30 year bonds back then was 1% not the 0.3% we see now.

Either way, an aside, if things were to go to the near 1% level, of course the implied loss would be awful, 300 billion as it was late 2013 ... or in a crisis bond wise if the spread went further ... even worse. for now, not like most things likely until overnight it occurs.

Bottom line, the USA fed, if it goes much further in cash tightening, it will no longer be able to fund these bonds positively and anything beyond the mid 2019 predictions I cant see ...
Other side, USA deficit is nuts and treasury itself issuing bonds like used toilet paper ... and into this the USA fed is trying to sell ? Yellen as she left, asked by congress how the selling was going ... she lied and said well .... when NONE at that stage had been sold. they have reduced the size of the balance sheet post QE easing ... as expected, BUT ... BUT ... always a BUT /// the mortgage bonds on the books, the very long ones the Fed owns, seem to me NOT to be behaving as usual ones do and I might have expected 20% MORE to have naturally evaporated. Of course the answer for this, might take 20 years to find out WHAT actual bonds they own and WHY they are not maturing early as these things tend to. Then again what the hell do I know !!
Enuf on this just an update and observation. Meanwhile, in the land of milk and honey Australia, budget number out today and the idiot new treasurer ... has us in Surplus in 2020. Things have changed and I will explain on the usual Cycles thread ...
Merry xmas to all ... may much joy be yours and tell someone you love them or a hug ... xxx
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jul 28 2018, 11:26 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Yep Douglass and MAckay co founded MFG .... Mackay was the fund manager for the first 5 years or so of MFG .... whilst also running MFF portfolio .... Douglass took over MFG fund manager role about 5 years ago ...

Of the two ... to be blunt ... Douglass a fair to very good fund manager having beaten to be fair the benchmark most of the time. Mackay, to be blunt beat the index whilst running the much larger MFG and whilst running MFF by 5% OR more ... each year. When 90% of fund managers cant even make the index return, Douglass is a fair fund manager .... Mackay in an extremely difficult overall market is a master.

Mackay speaks often of cycles ... market cycles ... is a valuation based investor .. and whilst early on a Buffett fan ... as time has passed the realization that Buffet by NOT paying any tax has more to do with the size of his fortune than his skill ...

Comparing the two co founders of MFG ... as fund managers .... returns wise and style wise and even holdings wise is vastly different and so to the returns. Douglass has been 15-18% cash, idiotically I might add whilst USA had rates at zero since 2014 .... when YEllen signaled she would NOT move early 2014 for some time ... the stimulus was massive and still by the way is ... selling the S+P 500 at 1,800 as it paused there was PRUDENT ... till it was clear YEllen like Bernanke was an idiot from the flat erth society and would stimulate asset no matter what.
Amazing to be 18% in cash ... for the last 50% of the rise ... but still keeping up with the overall index. This was done f course via holding some of the market darlings and ,,, well ones that Buffett rejected in the 2000 dot com boom ..... but now embraced.
This week for the idiots holding high risk shares on the tech side must have made some blink. For some of us, around and trading in 2001/2 seeing Microsoft and a long list down 20-% in a single day happened a few times ... even survivors lost 70% and at times 90% of their peaks.
Nothing different today in 2018 .... Facebook is like Myspace and many others ... twitter even with Ronald Dump took a 20 % hit last nigh and unlikely ever to make much I suspect .... then one goes to other pets ... Amazon whom Mackay supposedly looks at according to someone who does not know him ... Amazon is accused of emptying malls and mains streets in the USA ... Mackay watches Amazon with wary caution as it destroys what it touches and high margin business's become zero margin ones that without very easy monetary policy which is still the case in the USA despite current rises ... and PAYING NO TAX ... to anyone ... is what equates to a wrecking ball moving at will ... destroying all it touches ... when the company itself is DOOMED .... One day people will demand tax be paid ... Bezos and Amazon paid no personal or company tax ... and does not believe they should.
Eventually these things, will like most others ... get hit by the cycle. Amazon and the woeful tech side in terms of investors returns ... in that I mean via dividends and REAL returns not playing with capital returns and valuations where inflated forward expectations make the share price 2/3/4 times what it should be.

Of course, to keep up with the index and benchmark ONE HAS TO ... and if being honest, IS FORCED to hold some of these frogs and use different and laxer valuation methods to justify holding them. Not holding Amazon or Apple or Google or Facebook was not and is not an option to exclude them all. Not sure Mackay has ever held Amazon ... the INFLATED claims and idiotic P/E kept him out despite what some idiotic journo said recently. Has fascination is watching the slow motion of a truck waiting to crash. Same for Douglass and his similar .... all be more Tech side ... still didn't allow him to buy what clearly was and is a shitty company.
Same for a long list of things like Twitter and so on .... but for the Apple Google or Alphabet and Facebook with fairly mature earnings ... it was a matter of closing your eyes and hoping that the music kept going. Kept going till the actual results ... caught up to the inflated share price reality which was 2-3 years ahead. In the case of Amazon it was and is at best 10 years ... OR NEVER ahead ....

Sometimes one has to pay a premium to buy into growth and the few largest returns of MAckay and Douglass as well still holding I think from Mackays purchase when he was running MFG was and is holdings in VIsa and MasterCard. Both have very high P/E's compared to others holdings and as such ... will be interesting to see if MAcaky REDUCES his risk and books some of the profit despite not wanting to pay tax, the most vulnerable shares to any pullback are ones that are overvalued or valued on future expected realities. More than likely Visa and Mastercard irrespective of longer term market direction just keep growing with the massive changes being seen in Asia and moves towards cashless society. They however like Facebook were and are high P/E.
As for Douglass, and I suppose Mackay and the current market which again tries the old overall high on the s+p 500 seen nearly 12 months ago .... Douglass has a weighting 150% the one Mackay had on face-book. both like many caught in the downgrade and brutality of it. Difference for Dougless is he took a hit, despite being 80% invested v Mackay at 100% .... took a hit of 1.2% or 20% on 6% whilst MAckay took a hit of 0.8% .... such is the nature of the business. Where from here and what to do when the remaining portfolio for one is TECH light in the the case of MAcaky
Just looking I can see 100% of the MFF holdings and a mere 10% between 0.5% in Apple and holdings of Alphabet of 5.3% and Facebook of 4% is what MFF had in total 30th June 2018. Whilst holdings its NOT much.
Only able to see the top 10 .... of the MFG holdings ,,, Aplhabet 6.8% .... Facebook 6.6% ... Apple 5.1% ... Microsoft 3.7% ... thats ALREADY 22.2% held in HIGH p/e Lala land ...
Digging a bit further I suspect there is another 3-5% of the mere 80% they have invested in similar techs ... holdings in IBM and INTEL for MFG ring a bell and a chip maker .... will have to dig for them however ... MGE March 2018 quarterly portfolio disclosure ....
Oracle 3.4% , ebay 2.7% sap 1.6% and 0.8% Alphabet class A shares. So in total .... I was wrong .... this IDIOT and I mean complete idiot has 82% invested and 8.5% plus 22.2% PRE Facebook = 30.7% of this guys funds are in stocks with massive P/E's and thats out of a mere 82% invested.

When one fund manager comes second .... or in this space is in say the top 500 ...out of 10,000 and the other is number one ,,, or very close to it out of 10,000 similar fund managers .... since I know via results one fund manager has never even come close to beating the other I remain as always a fan of Mr Mackay. Who is the tennis number 500 ? and should I care ?

Thats how wide the divide between these two are. A divide that is LOCKED in and reported profits over the space of the last decade.
One produced far far more, with far fewer draw downs or volatility than the other.
Of course maybe I am bias for those who know why. Then again my contributions to talks about cycles and value based investing date back to 1996 and over 3,000 odd posts here and other sites so pre date MFF and MFG by a decade, not that I know anything, not taking anything away from an amzing result for MR Mackay
  Forum: By Share Code

Posted on: Jul 27 2018, 06:28 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

classic fund managers annual report .. or lic in this case. Back to back 20% plus returns .... AFTER tax ... whist morningstar worlds worst rating agency for funds ... cant work out this lic returns correctly.
fund manager ... chris mackay .. owner of a heap of mff and mfg shares as per usual regarding idiot morninstar and fact this lic seems to be possibly the highest returning fund out of over 10,000 funds in the 10 year period according to some others who can count . With a few issued shares and options ... along with dividends paid ,,, seems the 10 year return ... again over the 20% mark or very close.
an astounding return ,,, index was half that /// the usa benchmark

buffett could only under perform the index by 3% about 33% of this guy

well done
  Forum: By Share Code

Posted on: Jun 10 2018, 12:18 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

was just watching the hits .... on the thread .. and strange that over 1,000 reads of which 400 last two days ....

this to one side.
USA his imbalance of wealth is extreme v very very mild rest of world.
USA the likes of Mr Bezos .... Mr Apple ... Mr GAtes and a long list of others have avoided ... !00% avoided taxes or just the allowed missing the first 15% of personal taxes via loopholes in the USA system.

I cannot stomach any longer even the image of GAtes or Buffett ... when corporate wise the companies they run or have under their wings pay less than 10% overall in tax ... along with a disgraceful lack of payment of tax to operate USA. If you were born disabled ... Neither Gates or any of these clowns pay a cent ... have ever PAID a cent for either a pension for those born ill NOR paid anything towards their upkeep medically. ITs all paid for via the lower 80%. Its now 5 years the USA cant find a frigging Ambassador to Australia and whilst my suggestion of Cindy was a a joke ... to highlight her plight, the fact the man with little hands took the one he chose for ambassador to OZ ... an Admril .... then he was NOT coming here but going to Korea is and was a again a joke.
I have a few concerns and cant do anything about Trump. If Juliani his lawyer claiming Kim Ill Jung got on hands and knees to plead for the Singapore meeting be NOT cancelled ... again I suspect a lie on both Trumps part and his lawyer ... because dealing with mentally injured egomaniacs and narcissists .... my concern would be if it were actually TRUE ... Totally out of line for prior and previous behavior is what speaks volumes. All of them in the meeting both sides clearly are well short of even a full bag of marbles / .... but when one nutter does something so out of character to previous behavior ... then I believe is time to start worrying. Having been in markets for a long time the stuff out of North Korea and especially the latest young in-bread has been disturbing to say the least. Placing values or even common logic or decency upon them or expecting it .... is very much a mistake with the seriously mentally ill. Both parties at this meeting are, but one is laying down ... quite out of character if the lawyers claims are to be believed and it just sticks out as a red flag to me. Hopefully .... since Kim has many doubles .... the real one goes ... and second is what LUGGAGE he brings and what suitcase. Maybe just being ... even more paranoid than either of them, but then again, not so long ago ... right next door the brother of the person taking this meeting was attacked by what quite clearly were agents of North Korea with bloody nerve gas and killed. All this sounds like out of a James Bond novel the latter part ... I am just hoping the strange very accomadative behavior which is out of character for the last 10 years of his rule .... is NOT something awful. He is after all the leader ... with the worlds worst haircut who decreed all his people had to get the same cut.

As to Trump running off from the G7 ... or G6 ... I do have a solution for the G6 to go forward. SInce Apple, google, facebook and a host of other USA based tech companies for the past .... 20 years have paid NO ... or little tax to the G6 .... let alone any nation on the planet ... a suggestion is that they ONLY be allowed to make sales within their little tax structures .... the fictional nations inside Bermuda or Ireland or Luxembourg and all trades done with G6 nations not have a tariff but a transaction tax which represents in the case of Amazon who rarely pays nations GST sales tax a sales tax ... plus a profit tax and I propose all sales of google and APpple and so on be hit with the 25% transaction tax. I WAS GOING TO SUGGEST JUST SAY no .... ban them outright ... but that wouln't be fair .... Anyhow Good luck to the MAd Hatters tea party In Singapore ..... what a joke ... I hope the real KIm turns up and he hasn't packed his special suitcase to impress Mr Trump. This meeting could go on not just for days, but years, as both have a lot to say ... not to each other but about themselves and since neither will listen to the other ... it could just go in circles for years and years, gifts of varying sized envelopes and ... gloves ... and then maybe a military parade since Trump loves them .... but even his own military will not march for him, Maybe Kim Ill Jung could introduce Mr Trump to a few basketball players since Mr Trump couldn't get them even to come to the White House. THis ... plot ... and Mr Trump and his actions fascinate and fill me with horror. This time however .... maybe they get stuck in a time loop and Mr Trump remains in Singapore for many years and is removed from causing MORE harm. One can only hope Last point quickly on Toms question ... stimulus in the USA now in 2018 ... is HIGHER than any ever seen pre 2003 .... EVER ... we have interest rates about 2% too low ... govt deficit at 5% of GDP and we then have government with taxes STRUCTURALLY to low to sustain even basic health services. We all know baby boomers started to hit age 65 in 2010 .... and if NOT prepared each year till 2030 ADDS more in ters of numbers and costs ..... So the USA ... for 20 years I had been expecting some late AUSTERITY measure like the EU .... or even attempt .... instead its done the oppose .... GIVEN a 1 trillion tax break .... when the OPPOSITE was needed a hike of about the same in terms of tax.USA economy too fragile for the latter .... then again taking it from Mr GAtes or Buffett or Bezoz or Apple has ZERO impact on economy and same on spending ....

giving a $1,000- to 100 million people .... a 100 billion dollars ... to people assured who will spend it ... is the TOTAL opposite of drip down economics which takes it from 100 million and gives it to 10,000-- who are so unlikely to spend it ... it absurd.
As to my pointing out that DEATH results from deliberately cutting healthcare .... from the extremely poor ... very few will touch ... it is however a scientific fact .... FACT that the USA has dome this for now over 30 years at the cost of 40 plus million lives and life expectancy of the lower 80% being about the same as bloody NORTH KOREA

IN the simplest form, USA hospitals are in dire straights in virtually every state. Cutting spending by 25% .... which s what MR Trump just tried ... and will try again and again ...

For a customer ... without insurance .... reliant upon Medicaid ... which just got cut 25% ... and the hospital has to shut ... what does one do with a simple treatable emergency ? Asthma attack upon your kid .... treatable with a nebulizer and maybe some steroids ... cost less than $5- .... but NO hospital ... no treatment ... emergency attacks once every 6 months .... am I being even hysterical in calling this person and the Republicans and rest who ushered this cut in.... monsters ? Murderers ? Shit Trumps 2018 budget assures that my 100 million total is hit likely even 120 million Americans ..... Structurally ... different from every other OECD nation the USA has decided NOT to tax the rich ,,, and have a two tiered life expectancy. Scientifically arguing this is absurd ... because already USA has counties with life expectancy up near 90 and then a lot down near 60. If I sifed the top 10% in each county .... of rich and poor .... I am sure the gap will be about 35 years life expectancy difference.
Good luck in the Summit .... its like what did one genocidal maniac say to the other one ? As soon as r Trump can explain what difference their is in his actions of slashing funding to ... a WW2 camp guard ... I may retract that view. Unlikely as humanity this time is on the cusp, not the market .... humanity. Being politically correct will do nothing to save the mainly non white and if their white their likely under educated people in the USA who are about to undergo .... well the quickest part of the plan. It took 35 years to do the first 45 million, removing medical cover and pensions, will ensure the next 45 occur within 25 years and the third 45 million a mere 15 years latter. Sorry did the modelling whilst thinking .... and this is pretty much USA alone. Other nations ... no matter how we may feel about the rich getting more ,,, the numbers ... the government taxing at 40% of GDP in the EU and most other nations has been RISING 2-3% over the last 35 years. The USA, post 2018 budget .... 21 or 22% of GDP down .... by 4-5% ....

When a nation does NOT tax and save for education and welfare to take care of the NEW fact that we live till we are 80 not 40 ..... and does so at a rate of 8-9% v the rest of the word as it is RIGHT NOW >... up by 3% post this absurd USA tax cut ....
EIther we extract fair tax from these companies ... as NON USA nations ... or we perish ... early and in ignorance like the USA.
It is SIMPLE ... IN PLAIN sight .... this issue. ALL ELSE is BESIDES the bloody point. A deliberate distraction as OBAMA was. The fact that the USA instead of doing the right thing, has doubled down ... and done the wrong thing cannot be changed. I can, and will object to a genocide .... on a scale never seen before and NOT apologies for this as it is a factual event, form the falling life expectancy in the USA to the massive rises in suicides which soon given past experiments likely goes exponential .... to over 65's outcomes already being MINUS 5 year v expected but the CDC is holding off till 2020 to tell the USA !!

Oh well time to go and watch the MAd Hatters Tea Party ... hoping for the best .... but seriously its besides the point when already announced plans have another USA based tax cut on the agenda late 2018. Maybe Trump is going there to get help and tips on how to improve his healthcare system to be just like his new friend Kim ? Since life expectancy under both regimes for the lower 80% will be the same .... what a great idea.
take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jun 6 2018, 05:39 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Hi Tom,
sorry the delay. Thinking, reflecting and wondering. The correct or real answer will take some time. Looking back and seeing that since 1996 I have made 3,000 odd contributions to various sites ... most taking many hours of research, not all to do with finance ... have come to a crossroads. Whilst I have 100% belief in sceintific valuation measures .... soo too with marekt cycles .... its strange to be able to see clearly yet again, in reality .... what a bloody waste of time it is.
Trump ... a distraction ... a deliberate one to cover ... actions of a greedy group of mainly white little men who run the USA and its Oligarchy via a joint belief thay are above the law, above paying taxes either corporate or personal and a complete disdain and utter contemp for all those not in their crowd.
Not anti rich, far from it. Most even Gates and Buffett would still have 30 billion if they paid taxes vs the 100 billion they do ... the issue is the missing 80 or so which ... Gates and Buffett have both taken care of the family and thanks for NOT paying that extra 20% tax year in year out ... it vastly added to their piles. For others, they pay NO tax ... like Trump .... others actively avoid it ... like AMazon and Microsoft and Google ... and in the meantime the life expectancy of a NON rich NO WHITE person in the USA has gone backwards in the last 35 years despite most OECD nations gaining 10 years average oveall.
THis tax .... now being pushed overseas ... is there so the rich live with ability to pay for healthcare till they are 90 ... if not ... your poor and suck shit you live till 60. No one has as yet told the 75% of Americans . Trump actually signed the worlds largest genocide order with the 2018 budget ordering healthcare spending be SLASHED ... at a federal level. It did NOT occur his order .... baby boomers retiring alone is adding 4% each year in the USA to the cost ... add 5% inflation ... and then Trump ordering a 14% cut BEYOND that ...
thats 23%.
Simple question is, when you go to a hospital in the USA without health coverage ... or insurance ... and they refuse treatment when your sick ... WHAT HAPPENS ?
Think about it.
USA life expectancy numbers despite some seriously fictional rubing are going backwards and the fact that 500,000 middle aged white non collge educated people are dying each year post 2013 .... EACH YEAR >... is just atiny subset of the last 35 years of drip down economics.
Where things go from here ? Longer term ? Well I went thru the math and 100 million plus loss of life in the USA alone .... but markets ? Already we see middle class retail in tatters as the tax burden the RICH do not pay anything for .... falls to them and their ability to pay is gone ... and wages fall further and further from CPI, the next few years is either they die out ... distracted by the likes of TRUP and the Bubble arsed KArdashians ... or whatever .... or some miricale occurs.
I vote option two .... but sadly ... being set in stone the total I scientifically can prove of lives lost due to shitty healthcare and tax cuts for rich is currently 45 million .... impossible to stop pre 60 million and likely .... close to 100 million no matter what. What however is at stake is vast pressure being applied to the OUTSIDE USA .... so this globally could cost the whole game.
Stupid question but APple had no onterest in paying any tax at 35% or 25% so even at 21% what does it wish to pay ? ZEro ... same for many of the same ilk Google, Koch Industires, Microsoft and BErkshire HAthawy group along with the same old crowd.
DO I wish for my fellow Australians .. or even Kiwi or UK or UE friends to follow the USA ?
The behaviour of the USA is right now nothing short of extremely abusive to all and sundry ... some its trade wars .. some its being treated like a dick and having to swallow it ... MR TUrnbull had to find out my fictional new USA ambassador Cindy had met MR Trump and he threw a tantrum ... so th proposed NEW USA ambasaador Admiral Hiratio Hornblower ... a well known USA Admiral one who has driven a desk and not hit any other ships for over 30 years ... too offence to CIndy and my objection to the death order which TRUMP ACTUALLY signed cutting her food stamps but USA congress did not pass .... so NOW we dont have HH Admril HH ... who used to go weak at the knees anyhow at the sound of an alarm and Australia ... in our place as always ... has not had an ambassador for nearly 4 years.
When your being abused ... whether by some prick selling a good product ... Yes apple has that ... but avoids tax ... the correct response from extreme abuse is NO contact and in the case of Apple ... Microsoft ... Amazon and Google is barring them or putting a 25% TAX on any transaction .... and as for the USA political side itself ... when you have a person elected who promised his people over 200 times NO cutting healthcare .... and signed the 2018 budget slashing in reality spending by 24% in real terms ...


that the USA media choose not to call it Genocide .... or Democide .... does NOT mean I do.
If I placed a plastic bag over Trumps head for 100 seconds every time he talked or tried to .... he would be dead within an hour. This is a scientific experiment that needs no verification even from the stupidest of us out there.

If I ordered Federal health care spending slashed by 24% in real terms .... and followed the plight of a person with say stage 3 cancer but no healthcare, how would you think a 24% cut in already stretched funding will do for their eventual care ? Do we add 10 seconds to that plastic bag over the clowns head between times he wishes to speak ?
in the case of Healthcare, if I were to take such action, whilst I may ignore individuals, the fact is that MILLIONS more would die likely much younger and in extreme pain than should have. This is ALREADY factual in the USA life expectancy in relaity sub 75 in 2018 if absurd adjustments removed .... if your rich ... you live close to 90 .... making the life expectancy say of th lower 80% not say 73 but close to 67 .... v 89 .... 22 years .... a joke that gap. America officially claims the life expectancy gap fr native Americans again due to dodgey statistics a mere 4 years .... in 1970 it was 24 years .... post 1970 funding fell by half v GDP ... and they feed the stupid ... a 4 year gap.
I do feel very much like being able in 1932 to see Hitler and the impact and his plans ... sadly however ... USA has destroyed its middle class already ... its political system ... its media ... seriously ... did any of those turds miss the budget cuts in the 2018 budget ? A disgrace ....

I have given a considerable amount of my time, for free ... to various causes ... not just markets ... some suicide help lines some other chat groups to help others ... down and out ... and here, sadly, I find myself having translated the economic statistics and impacts of policies of some and come to the conclusion that ... here in 2018 a monster ... a group of them and TRUMP IS IRRELEVANT he is just the latest distraction so the Oligarchy in the USA .... with no savings for the elderly or baby boomers or their pensions NOR their healthcare .... DESPERATELY in need of funds along with the very poor and infirm ... the upper class in the USA decided to award another 1 trillion tax cut to themselves when in reality the next 20 years likely needs 50 trillion more saved.
MR GAtes and Buffet paying 15% tax v their secretary on the personal side ... HER at 35% ... that 20% tax on 100 million pr year income minimum .... then add the same amount for not paying 35% corporate tax but under 10% .... all in reality washing their hands of any blame .... meanwhile healthcare in the USA is 20% of GDP and it mere covers at best 80% of them. So how peverted their system is ... at full cover at today's rates would take 25% of GDP to fund. Lucky Mr Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway is a massiv medical insurer ....
NO ONE can afford healthcare at that cost ... 4 times the OECD best average ... BUT THE USA COMES dead ... last post 1980 in life expectancy results not of just the top 20 .... BUT last out of the top 100!!

Nothing like a democracy with no bought and paid for politicians, a pathetic media, educational and institutions bought and paid for ... the police ... ones meant to prevent this ... the example of the USA fed Reserve board with 7 members all from a sect of economists who believe in the flat earth all clearly sponsored and paid for by one investment bank and all from a religious cult that represents less than 2 % of the population. NO ... all some weird coincidence. That this religious cult only employs its own members is self evident .... only cares for its own members again evident when one looks further afield and the utter contempt they have for fellow human beings especially those of Native American or African American and even Latino or Asian is again evident when NOT a single one of the MINORITY 50% PLUS they represent ... of America ... NOT one ... NOT ONE SINGLE One and I mean NOT MALE OR FEMALE .... I mean not one of any minority race made it past mid level bureaucracy in the USA in various departments in the past 35 years.
They had a token .... Female African American President .... but sadly when the Forbes rich list is read the 3 Latino billionaires with ONE ... ONE single sole African American .... OPRAH speaks volumes.
Sadly sleepy gas has been sprayed on these people ... chasing phantom menaces ... or things that are irrelevant in the extreme and whilst say 5 accidental African American deaths of course matter .... did you know your REAL life expectancy, correctly and scientifically measured has gone BACKWARDS .... since 1982. Meanwhile most have gained close to 10 years life, African Americans life expectancy ... all of them .... every single one as a group lost over 12 years v OECD outcomes ....

Mormons with 3 % of the population .... if they were in power I am sure their would be a revolt. Clearly people with NO empathy as this cult of economic flat earth religious fruitcakes .... certainly look after their own .... but NEVER EVER should be in any majority where they decide the fate of others. Sadly we have the USA treasury, socisal security, medicare and Medicaid being run by them along with he USA fed up till 2018 when the rats started jumping ship ....
Obviously I feel strongly about this and a mountain I can never surmount .... not alone ... possibly not without a lot of help. You may note ... in the midst of this a fund started up using the exact principles of valuation I have on here .... and have been sprouting since 1996 ... it also actually pulls out during cycles to some extent .... run by not me ... but a brilliant man for the first 5 years and now he runs the LIC side ... which even morningstar cannot work out its return . A return that thankfully others now 10 years into this has performed returning TWICE .... the Market return. More than TWICe the return of Buffett who, whilst when I started I was a big fan of in 1996 ... as I learnt more and shared in varius posts, Buffett ... whilst VALUATION is the only way to go .... His methods vary from my own beliefs and those of my favorite fund manager who wishes to remain nameless.
Imagine being in an elite group of less than 100 fund mangers .... up in the top 10 out of 10,000- and even the ratings agency who gives out gongs for fund manger of the year has NOT even worked out that how seriously stupid they are in reality and should refund all fee's collected for research into performance of said funds.

Some may understand the IRONY of this, a fund performing at double the market rate during some of the hardest and most interesting times is a great accolade to said manager and I take great pride in his achievements.

Him to one side, from his perspective without emotion, USA cannot hope longer term to remain viable unless voters and lower castes and euthenics accept they live till they are 60, and the ruling class and in particular the ruling elite religion who only employs its own, votes for its own and ... so on .... unless the USA population accepts this ... and their place ... all hell is going to break loose and rightly so.
Its worse than the death cams of WW2 .... THE GAS CHAMBERS ARE NOW SILENT ONES ..... the music they played then is now ... a mixture of streamed entertainment ... games played till exhaustion .... clown elected to distract reality ... factual content ignored and shunned and even in this the most respected of all say the NY times or Washington post called fake news ... all sprinkled with right wing think tanks sprouting biased and totally crap media pieces on behalf of their members ....

What hope does one have ?

Each of the last 4 absolutely awful mortality reports in the USA had a paper written by an academic abut the shocking results. One the current Nobel prize winner ...
without fail the right wing .... funded by non other than investment banks and current Goldman Sachs favorite think tank came out each time to minimize ....the findings ... I didn't realize it was the same one ... each time coming out and quoted twice as much in the media.
Hilarious ... sad and sickening some of the papers ... they produced ... one debunking a paper with 20 odd contributes looking at billions of years .... of tax returns ... that being 20 years returns for 100 million people and Goldman Sachs pet used a study of millions of years of records .... about 1/1000 and from the most biased source they could find.

Sure it sounded good .... but was of course total crap and for the Oligarchy paying $100 million in bribes or supporting a think tank or politician for $50 million to get a tax cut that saves them 500 million s a great payoff and either 10/1 or 5/1. Usually its even higher than this. The single favor in the tax code may only appear to be tiny .... in the USA ... this is what Gates and BUffett tell themselves but over time ... not paying a single cent to care for a disabled person either via Medicare tax .... or Social Security .... which both evade without thought .... the impact other side ... and here is the crunch ... the pretense of even being fair ... even pretending to take care of the baby boomers or elderly in the USA is GONE ...
READ the 2018 TAX cut to the healthcare side ... let alone education or others ....
When someone already on their knees .... ut of breath has that plastic bag slipped over their head .... repeatedly .... see how long they last. One very common cause of a visti to emergency is ASTHMA ... and an easily treatable attack ....left in the waiting room ... will not last long. Even treated ... sent home with MINIMAL medication and since they cant afford it ... the Hospital itself ..... let alone the poor person needing treatment ...., gasping for each breath is anly about half way anlong the unpleasant that represents USA values in 2018.
Mr Trunbulll that Trump withdrew his ambassador to Australia the HH admiral ... after reading the "Meet Cindy the NEW USA ambassador to Australia" article I was only recently made aware of the reason and that you HID it from the media ... Well done. Suggest whilst your out visiting drought areas right now a set of balls is found and you stand UP to being abused. Maybe a spine as well could help.
I am actually ashamed of how many who are really aware of the issues .... and are ignoring it. Australia meanwhile taxes for the overall population to reach age 84 or so ... which requires healthcare be taxed ..... hence the fact our market lags so far behind the USA post GFC. All pretending is gone .... and if your government only charges 60% of the tax that other nations need to keep their population alive .... KNOWING full well the price is 30 years of life for all BLACKS , SPIKS, WOGS and Asians ... so be it.
For me, this dictates all future direction with the caveat that the USA is in extreme bubble territory even without this.. Sadly eventually we will be thrown out with the baby and bathwater ... then BUY.
Personally ... taking on a mountain ,,, Lat time was Janet Yellen ... and the FED about participation rates ..... this one ... a thankless mountain of pain. Is humanity worth even that ? Who cares ?I know who should .... the USA and 80% of its population but it sems that nearly 100% of them are even aware of the issue despite FACTUAL EASILY SEEN NUMBERS.
THis battle maybe someone else s, as even being politically correct NOT an option when dealing with mentally disturbed or those who resort to their tactics. Gaslighting where we see the abused actually so messed up falling in love with the abuser is about the state of some of these people. Even questioning some brings out an army of ants ....
Do I just shut up and relax ... for most ... this is their course and has been. Sadly, I doubt as a species we make it even over this hurdle when its revealed the full extent of the actions. Seriously, white rich in 1982 in the USA live till age 76 ... in 2019 they live till age 89. NON WHITE and poor whites in 1982 lived to age 71 and now ..... age 69.
Meanwhile poor in Australia live till age 82 .... v 72 back in 1982. So too the same for 15 Or more OECD nations.
I am confused where to go .... not market wise ... that ones easy ... this is a personal question. Do I take up a fight or an education in the hope of trying to change for the better this planet or just let things fall as they may and ... eventually can only end up ?
Sorry rambling but hope it helps

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 24 2018, 10:32 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


A surprise ... in the budget and spending side, CHIPS. Basically a low income subsidy for those children without health insurnce. WAS on the cutting block. Covered those families and kids ... about million with incomes of OVER Medicaid threshold so over $24,000- but under $30,000- ...

Was expecting this to be cut .... reason being in 2019, Medicaid, due to the ONE off that the USA corporate s bring back around 3 trillion and paying 15% tax ... so 400 billion ... will need to be slashed from the 2019 budget. Basically these cretins timed it so the spending cuts in their GLORY would not be displayed the same year as the massive tax cuts. The spending side is mandatory and lo and behold a scheme ... not even the LOWEST is saved via 6 years of funding.

A good thing.... but next year 2019 will be mayhem. Still remains to be seen if they cut community healthcare center funding for 2018 in the USA ... the healthcare provider for 30 million LOW income people. NOt that they care .... or maybe they do ... they have suprised me with this CHIPS funding but there is over 700 billion in cuts in 2019 still to be made and about 300 billion even in 2018 .... so cant hold my breath.

One thing was confirmed ... YET again ... with over 50% of all children coming from families either below poverty ... below medicaid food stamps line and BELOW CHIPS funding level of $30,000 family income ... YET again it confirms the fact ... that the MEDIAN ... MIDDLE income is for a family in the USA somewhere around the $35,000- level NOT the one they try and publish via BLS, or Commerce CLAIMING some middle income .. median at $60,000-..

As always, these cuts, whether this yer or next, ignoring the diabolical impacts on health and life itself .... taking money from Cindy for food stamps ... someone assured to spend it and giving it to Mr Koch or that Amazon dope ... never ever will stimulate the economy. Again not that anyone cares as the lower 80% are less than 10% of the actual economy in any economic sense.

Meanwhile S+P , NASDAQ hit higher and higher .... as expected.

As was the cse post GFC and ZERO forever was the tune we played ... things have CHANGED .... NOT ....

Traditionally as 3% GDP growth and 3% inflation one would expect interest rate to be neutral at say 1% over CPI and the deficit spending side for the USA be close to balanced and neutral. NOTHING .... could be further from where we are now.

Interest rates are 3% LOWER than they should be .... and government spending in the USA likely 3% of GDP deficit which again massive stimulus ...

as for the lowering to 21% from 35% ... not many paid 35% ... compliance was not great ... but at 21% .. its an artificial level that companies ... not being human ... not needing help sometimes and healthcare can exist upon, but for the humans ... its not a good thing. Again, lowering this rate moves the ever idiotic asset prices even higher when the obligation to pay tax is slashed by 33% in exchange for 25-30 years of life for the lower 80% ... we have what we have.

One side, one way ... head I win ... tails you loose ...up up and away the market goes.

OR so it seems. Still there are two release valves the USA cannot fully control and one being BOND rates, long term ones and if you have looked, the USA not in the grips of a temper tightening tantrum, its not that far away in relative terms. USA bonds are already smelling like roadkill. ITs the RELATIVE one has to look at in low interest rate environments and the USA compared to EU nations has lost more ground post 2013 than at any other time in history.

Currency second one and the USD has slipped and lost about 10%, so again no great panic. All held together via chewing gum and purchases via China and holdings of Japan .. which as for the past 20 years has always been the question ? Will they sell out, or down ? a catch 22 for them as they loose either way.

In the midst of this, the USA making it legal for USA based companies to take whatever tax measures they like overseas, now joined by a tariff of 30% on solar panels .... and the same on washing machines ...

Gee free trade ... on our terms ,,, buy our goods we will pay u no tax and then pick and choose which industries to protect ?

Sounds like trade wars to me .... tax war already in progress.
Again, not great either way.

Then again, no one willing to stand up to the tyrant and maybe a tariff of say 50,000% on awful red hair dye self imposed by China for exports to the USA might catch his attention.

Our market, it SUCKS ... lost 7% v USA in short order and happy 2018. Nothing like higher taxes on banks, resource side and overall to slow the thing down. Still, has to be said the massive benefit of franking credits and massive dividends still lost on most.

2017 saw banks hit with MORE reserve requirements and again a negative to the overall tone of the market and index v overseas ones. Like in the past, getting someone to buy a fully franked all up dividend with franking credits of 9% v cash at 1.5% is a hard sell. Much the same as it was in 2010-13. Buying say ANZ at $20- or NAB same level .. now has doubled your money. Awaiting this correction we KNOW will occur at some time in the USA is ... what it is ... a loosing game v buying on dips which still seem to abound in our market.

USA heading towards DOUBLE pre GFC highs ... and that's 3,100 and a bit for the S+P 500 .... whilst if it gets there as it will given GDP growth and inflation ... at some stage ... our market struggling t 6,000 v the 6,850 highs .... pre GFC. Different worlds and different outcomes during GFC and commodity prices well off pre GFC highs shaving about 15% off things and the fact our commercial real estate market got smashed post GFC when the RBA raised rates, v USA fed buying any and all bonds ... and going to zero ... has asset classes in the USA outside equities AGAIN and for some time up in LA LA land territory.

We still lack that catalyst. ME going your about to lower life expectancy by 10-15 years more over the 10years of life the lower 80% of the population in the USA lost post 1980 ... IS NOT A CATALYST. Its a statistic until someone DEMANDS it change. Not about to occur before its too late for the second to occur. Rich live till 90 ... the lower 80% live till age 60 in the USA.

Will EU or China call USA out on the current moves either via tax free for USA outside USA trade and pay nothing to anyone ? Or will they object about trade ? China has reached that lovely area that Japan did where DOMESTIC demand is taking over and overseas trade becoming less and less important to overall growth. IS the USA and the Chinese holdings of USA treasuries and US dollars that important ? They will loose either way trying to exit, or even reduce. DOes that mean they keep supporting the currency as has been seen in the past ?

Nothing new on these debates.

Standing back, USA valuations, THROW THE RULE BOOKS OUT.

Seriously the 2,500 level in the S+P was 1929 peak, peak of idiocy and whats new ? Some new policy that over time will reveal itself via falling USA population and overall life expectancy for the lower 80%. Here at 2,800 and change nearly 15% above a high water mark for stupidity ... but ONE CANNOT and SHOULD NOT argue with the markets wisdom. One hand, vi GDP growth and CPI it will always go up, but at these extremes, and this clearly is one, the correction in 1930 saw nearly 25 years pass before the previous high was hit again.

INflation adjusted ... it took 40 years to hit a new HIGH

and here we are ... 115% of the highest high ... arrr .... yes if I am like a cat with a long tail in a room full of rocking chairs at present there is very good reason for that.

I would and will be happy to miss a LOT of the pain which is surely going to come. Being NOT invested somewhere for too long .... somehow and one misses the appreciation. Standing out for a 1% ... caution .... as I tend to do as in 2014 ... and again last year with the technical level that the market now being fed a different diet in the USA ignored ... the next one on the topside I suppose 3,100 or so ... DOUBLE the previous all time high pre GFC ... 5 times the low 2002 at 3,300 ish or 4 times the post GFC low ? at again 3,100 and hey presto we have a winner ... technically at least. Only another 10% from here for the S+P 500 so sometime next week ?
Kidding about next week ... but these MEGA levels are like magnets for the computer driven systems and since 2,500 was not stupid enough ... lets try higher.

Enjoy 2018 and ignore if you can the hot air. Eyes on bonds and currency, or some other unseen force that will topple the cart.

take care

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 20 2018, 12:02 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 09:19 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

JUst report off other thread . basic longer term future outlook ...


Meet Cindy the New USA Ambassador To Australia


Since September 2016 USA has not had an Australian Ambassador and finally they have seen fit to appoint Cindy 15months latter.

Its about time, a full 12 months after our hapless PM was hung up on via phone early 2017by Emperor Donald Trump over the refugee deal, finally it appears the USA seen fit to appoint a new ambassador to Australia. Or NOT !!

Rest via PDF ....

usual length for me


Cheers MArk

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 08:33 AM

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Posts: 2,754


Meet Cindy the New USA Ambassador To Australia


Since September 2016 USA has not had an Australian Ambassador and finally they have seen fit to appoint Cindy 15months latter.

Its about time, a full 12 months after our hapless PM was hung up on via phone early 2017by Emperor Donald Trump over the refugee deal, finally it appears the USA seen fit to appoint a new ambassador to Australia. Or NOT !!

Rest via PDF ....

usual length for me


Cheers MArk

Attached File(s)
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 12:08 PM

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Posts: 2,754

My pancreas and two kidneys removed by the government and will I be OK ?

I will get to the title of this article. I was writing a series of articles or book, but as 2017 and Trump progress the whole scenario has become somewhat irrelevant or should I say totally relevant. So I announce the END OF BOOK …100mio Democide .... Its worst case and then some. Not worth continuing with it in its current form. Any pretending is no longer necessary after the operation.

Rest in the PDF ... bit long but usual for me.

Take care Mark M

all rights reserved ...

Two more to go ... One is meet Cindy and the other ... still mulling a name ... Drongo Maths

My pancreas and two kidneys removed by the government and will I be OK ?
I will get to the title of this article. I was writing a series of articles or book, but as 2017 and Trump progress the whole scenario has become somewhat irrelevant or should I say totally relevant. So I announce the END OF BOOK …100mio Democide .... Its worst case and then some. Not worth continuing with it in its current form. Any pretending is no longer necessary after the operation.

Rest is via the PDF ... a bit long ... 20 mins but about usual for my research papers.
Enjoy, All rights reserved

Mark M
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:36 AM

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Posts: 2,754


Thanks for that. Average v MEAN v Median ... sadly its already been altered in the USA.

The Average and MEAN are the same thing, the median ... Middle ... middle person in a set of things ... via methodology the USA has taken this to new levels by either counting things .... not counting things ... ALWAYS to paint a rosy picture.

USA has NO idea the lower 60%, or a very vague one.

I would strongly argue that its even the lower 80% NOW. IT was 60% since some, still had some assets from pre 2000 when USA equality wise was better ....

Now ... the elderly ... in the top 60-80% range have retirement savings of less than $100,000 and assets the same .... thats for a couple. Post tax plan, passed ... the framework .... its taking $5,000 - per person ... per year in spending from FREE over 65 healthcare and the safety net. Even were I to just NOT add how much MORE than $10,000- a year this will likely add to over 65's ... all assets are gone even for the next 20% .

Some sickening comments out of MR Cohen ... the man who paid himself 300 million ... ex Goldman Sachs head ... who said the tax plan was progressing so as to enable DRIP DOWN economics and the rich get their tax cuts.

IN 40 years, IT has had NO impact NONE ... positive on the USA economy. Mr Gates instead of having 25 billion has 100 ... which he gave 25 billion to family and some other away ... same Mr Buffett ... Kochs ... same thing .. Waltons same thing ...

Corporate side ... well healthcare in USA now 20% of GDP .... but only counted as 8% for CPI ... another methodology issue I have ...
Amazon announced it paid NO tax in the past and intends to be unchanged post tax plan, Ditto to Google, Apple and so on ...

This branch of economics and statistics is NOT one I thought I would be going into .... sadly ... in many ways ... the USA is able to sell off the organs of its inhabitants to sustain tax cuts for the rich and is doing so. NOt in a small way, in a way ... that makes any previous despot monster proud.

Thats my rant ... I can possibly predict direction of a market when an Oligarchy running it is selling the lungs and hearts of the lower 80% because they can ... it is unsustainable in the longer term ... even medium term ... short term, they get their cut ... but should they. Will the rest of the world react ... they dont have to swallow the spin put on USA numbers that removed 15 million workers and called them NOT attached to the workforce post GFC ... or some other jokes I will share as we go on that make that look mild .

Interesting times, and then again not so ... our country going well ... China never went away and think the HUMP i mentioned about 10 years ago ... crossed ... where China for the next decade self sustains during whatever happens outside it. SO all good.

This which I am talking about has impacts, yes on USA market ... but more human side which is making me goggle. How so few, can do it to so many. Fortune 500 ... with 4 Mexicans and one black ... Oprah in it ... massive over representation for some areas .... and religions. Of the 400 about 200 actually active Oligarchy members ... very few if any ... give a shit about the hum cost.

Out on my soap box again ...

sorry ...

take care MArk
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Nov 11 2017, 10:03 AM

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Posts: 2,754

HI Mags,

Well having looked at OUR numbers, one set via the RBA and the other via the ABS, the drift in Australia is TINY over the last 10 years.

We enjoy FACTUAL median wealth that is in the top 10 globally and the spread between AVERAGE and MEDIAN is again best case.

Sadly, and since the USA has taken to producing spin, or statistics produced via Robert in Zimbabwe post 2000, the CLAIM about wealth in the USA if examined as it has been is shattered. Four studies actually come up with MEDIAN wage alone ... at 38-45% of the bloody average wage in the USA. USA claims its 67% . SBC and UBS wealth studies along with Oxfam and one other come up with this 38-45% region.

How USA arrives at numbers, bullshit ones, it berates the rest of the world with, is it adds in one case, everyone living under one roof and counts them as a family. So one house, three generations , one retired, their kids and now their kids also all working is counted as a single .... household is where the HOUSEHOLD numbers are made a joke of. That's one departments spin on it ...

Another ... commerce ... adds in all benefits paid to everyone and divided by working people .... comes to around $5,000 and then takes investment income earnt by everyone .... mainly the top 10% ... then again divided by workforce of 140 million and adds $10,000- to every working household ...

hey presto ... one has $15,000- added to the MEDIAN according to USA commerce department and it IGNORES that the MEDIAN worker is earning too much even on $20,000- after tax to get Medicaid or Food Stamps, also insulting to suggest a person with ZERO net assets earns any income ... but heck the lower 80% of the USA has virtually NO VOICE ... none ... certainly no say in whatis going on.

This BUDGET outline and PLAN ... was passed by both houses. The debate, and media ... all its talking about is the tax side ...

Taking $5,000- in benefits from 40 million of the 50 million elderly and taking $2,500- from the ultra poor .... via cutting food stamps and SSDI payments .... will VASTLY alter their lives.

They are UTTERLY reliant upon these payments ....

anyhow must keep going with the new playing field and just highlight WHAT has been done, by so few ... to so many !!

We are talking about .... less than 5 in the Forbes 400 list of richest that are either LAtino or Black ... only one black and thats Oprah and she is a bloody SAINT !!!

Of the S+P 500 CEO's and their management teams about 50 .... of them very active tax avoids and lowering corporate rate when Amazon pays NO TAX >.. refuses to .... changes little ... just makes their game easier ....

An indifference to all others ... rises to an active participation and guidance for about 100 key players.

All up less than 10,000- are about to END ... SNUFF OUT ... kill ... around 100 million lives early. Some 5 years, some 20 years.
All this via tax, or in this case payments to promises made to the people of the USA in 1965 as to free healthcare for the over 65's.

Sorry ... my rant ... but, I am agog, and trying to be as factual as I can whilst taking a life back to a 65 year one, the title of the book about 100 million LIVES of 65 years lost, basically everyone outside the top 20% in the USA has been ... sent to the trash ... is easily and sadly clear now.

Take care and kiss the ground here in Australia. Even when next annoyed by some idiot far left wing person, at least they HAVE a voice. So too the ABC and its annoying role for various governments, again ... debate is alive and well.

In the USA, seriously, taking $5,000- A YEAR off every pensioner ... is WHAT the plan just passed was ..... and I am struggling to find USA media even talking about this. IT places $100,000- burden MORE upon healthcare wise on someone who just retired and likely they have NOT a hope in hell of getting it.

In fact 40% of Americans have NO retirements savings .... again a promise but this one made in 1936 about Social Security. Again as the rich sloe 60 trillion from the poor in the USA ... not spoken about.

MEdia ... think tanks ... universities ... govt departments ... all dancing similar tunes. Sick and sad ones.

Even going up to 80% of old age Americans have NOT EVEN $50,000- in retirement savings.
It makes the sounds of silence via the USA media and even elderly even more disturbing. I suspect, sadly suspect the elderly are totally unawares what cutting 25-30% off medicare and Medicare actually means. They know its BAD ... but NO coverage on WHAT it means to them and their ongoing welfare.

As to the food stamps ... likely 10 million removed .... 3 million kids ... they don't need food after all. All of this so Mr Bill Gates and Warren Buffett ... both totally silent on this ... pretending to be good guys ... actually go thanks for the 500 million tax cut a year .... I wonder how many of the 3 million kids left wanting will be thinking kindly of any of the Oligarchy members.

Then again, no one ... acts other than in self interest in the modern world.

Back with some more sobering stuff along with a few amusing lies for the central banks to answer.

Take care

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Nov 9 2017, 11:20 AM

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Posts: 2,754


basically chapter 2 of my recent writings just spelling out WHO is running the show.

Recent tax changes in the USA and a plan to slash all spending for welfare, elderly, medical, food stamps and disabled .... by 25-30% just passed both houses. Whilst NOT law, its as good as.

Not a word from the people of the USA who on one hand get ... if your working ... $1,152 tax cut .... and on the other need to find a minimum of $80,000- lost ... in Free over 65 medicare, emergency Medicaid and a long list of other vital programs.

So much for promises to NOT cut them.

For the actual elderly, being hit with a NEW cost of over $5,000- a year and NO gains since for the main part they are NOT working has not even raised .... a protest. I wonder if they are even aware ...

Oh well this is background on my view of the Oligarchy

Cheers Mark

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 29 2017, 10:06 AM

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Posts: 2,754


100 million lives DEMOCIDE

8- Worst case scenario 100 million loss of TOTAL life, 285 million loose 25 years of potential life

How the hell CAN 80% OF a population loose 10 years life expectancy compared to the rest of the world in a mere 30 years ? Its called DRIP DOWN Economics and not taxing the rich, not funding either medicare, which Was free essentially in 1985 now costing close to $300,000- for a couple and a projected $400,000- by 2025 or 100% of the pension paid to USA retiree's of whom 40% …. HAVE NO OTHER SAVINGS.

and a bit latter ....

anyhow back soon with chapter 8A … The Title of it … will have to be decided.

This IS not being anti USA, the fact is, of OECD nations, NONE of the 48 has seen a move like this. Nations that HAVE allowed for healthcare and pensions for elderly and life expectancy is NEAR OECD highs as it was 30 years ago, HAVE NOT done so at any cost economically. NONE.

Germany and Japan and all EU nations. Some the USA looks down its nose at, adopted a BEST case, as their model back in the 1980's have seen massive gains in both overall life expectancy such as say Singapore rising from age 70 about 6 years under best OECD back in 1985 to age 82 expectancy a near high result now.

This has NOTHING to do with stimulating economies, GDP growth or drip down effects, Japan and Germany have OUTPERFORMED USA in BOTH post 1980. And in this their PEOPLE have also enjoyed the expected benefits in terms of spread of wealth and LIFE EXPECTANCY. USA meanwhile has bankrupted the lower 50%, even the lower 80% have HALF what they did. Life itself already shortened 10 years in relative terms, is assured to hit 15 years no matter what. Unfortunately, past scientific results assure me sadly that 20 years LOST if likely if not 25.

All so Mr Trump. Buffet, Gates and the Oligarchy of corporate and self interest groups pays no tax. I cant imagine NOT paying any tax to a modern government for someone born with a disability. Sadly, these proud Oligarchy members have done so with the blessing of the rest of the world. SO lets cut taxes, make it official and export our own form of GREED and Genocide to the rest of the world. IT does work, if that's their goal, extreme wealth and income inequality, extreme variances in basic life expectancy bordering on the obscene forms of genocide practised in the past. Please don't ban plastic bags before they have finished as they MAY need them !!


Back with a new chapter and possibly a few headline stories ... as this deserves topics all of its own ... DEMOGRAPHIC, and other things already uncovered ... just not obvious till pointed out their significance.

take care

Mark M

All rights reserved

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 22 2017, 10:12 AM

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Posts: 2,754

Paused Again

Bottom line, the lower 80% of USA, 260 million people, since the DRIP DOWN economic experiment started in 1980 have LOST … 6 years of life. The top 1% will always have life expectancy of top of OECD plus 5-8 years and USA no different. Even the top 10% are OECD plus 5 years, the top 20% enjoy on average in the USA OECD best so 84 years PLUS 3 years, so 87 years, the LOWER 80% already are at 72 years and falling.

Without a doubt, with almost 100% confidence, the number will fall to 67 in coming years.

Will be back with chapter 8 in a few days ... and so on .. apologies for the delay ....

Cheers Mark

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 09:37 AM

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Posts: 2,754

HI Tom,

yep thought about that one ... but its cruel and inhumane to watch anyone die for the lack of say basic medicine ....

Similar way to look at global trade V poverty and basic outsourcing of jobs has spread global wealth .... reduced poverty and misery for so many.

As always ... a few ways to look at things. This manufacturing shift WAS .... a good thing for so many ... not so good for a few ...

I doubt this plan even gets beyond the USA borders. Already, backlash against the USA is increasing. ITs nice for them to CLAIM the deal is the best for the USA ... when in reality its going to flow 80% to the top 1 % ... something that TRUMP via his actions and utterances has revealed to the rest of the world. An indifference for anyone and everything other than himself.

Meanwhile EU nations, much older .... are near the end of what they had as a baby boom ... theirs was shorter and less a bump and have hit HIGHER proportions over age 65 than the USA ever was meant to.

What is and has been clear for some time the USA estimate say in 2040 the over 65's are a mere 20% and only 21% by 2050 .... depending on HOW I mix the numbers the percentage ALWAYS has been over 25% but could be as high as 33% ....

Bottom line it will be less than 2 workers .... for every retired person.

Healthcare and Pension system over there next 5 years heats up and within 10 years .... a blow torch upon demands both medical and just plain old pensions. NONE of it funded .... and no one has told the less well off and by that the bottom 70% have NOT a hope in hell .... next 10% to 80% little chance and savings of less than $50,000- at age 65 ... again little chance ... leaving the other 20% which take a massive jump in assets going into the top 10% .... v the next 20% ......

Only thing that has changed ... sadly is their intention .... one I thought they COULD NOT and WOULD NOT abandon ... due to the cost being 100 million lives of 65 years length ...

they did not blink ... the top 10% in the USA. NOT a word about WHAT slashing food stamps does ... or medicare .... or NOT providing healthcare for over 65's for FREE .....

Just a distraction with a red faced Ronald McDOnald look alike in charge ....

sorry that's being too kind to these people.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 11:51 AM

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Posts: 2,754


100 million lives DEMOCIDE

7- What is NOW totally unreliable ? v 25 million loss of life

The reality …. the REAL PICTURE is so obscured by self interest groups that its insane.

Basically these departments use any number, ANY to paint a fiction.

If its CPI, lets remove the GFC housing bubble, if its estimating the cost of medicare say 10 years into the future, Medical costs in the USA for 20 years have risen at 3-4% above reported CPI, which somehow gets lost in the reported CPI numbers BUT NOT … the overall cost. Hard to hide the REAL total cost and its now bumping 20% of GDP in the USA which is impossible for any nation anywhere to fund.

IT is sadly in plain sight. In very plain sight. Meanwhile the USA plays economic terrorism with the rest of the word and corporate criminals and tax thieves sent out to sell products globally but pay no tax, cannot go on.

We can imitate the USA, and develop a wonderful two tiered system where the elite live 30 years longer than the poor. Some elites feeling guilty on one hand collect 3-5 billion in non payment of tax each year and then do good, giving it away to even poorer nations …. but half that TAX theft comes not from inside the USA … they are trying to enforce their view upon the rest of the world if allowed. Simple as that. Nations loosing 3% of GDP in tax to these crooks has to stop, or not.

Only reliable thing I can tell you is if Trump tax plan and 20% corporate tax is a reality in the USA, every person on over 250,000- even $200,000- will find it worth their wile to pay themselves into a company and legally and totally avoid paying 30% personal income tax, avoid likely 12% social security and avoid likely 4% medicare tax.

NONE of the USA reported economic statistics post 2000 bear much relationship to reality. All have been sprayed with flower dust to make them smell pretty.

The sad irreversible reality is NOT a mere 25 million but closer to 50 million are already LOST.

What is reliable is the following.

40% of Americans HAVE NO retirement savings outside Social Security.

In 2017 the USA had the LOWEST NET POPULATION GROWTH since 1937. It was NOT falling immigration, NOR net illegal IMMIGRATION …. NOR lack of baby births … they had and still remain LOW and falling but have been around the 1.7 births per woman for the past 10 years. The FALL had to do with massive and SCARY falls in expected/actual mortality.


just a few bits in the chapter ….


All rights Reserved

Take care


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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 1 2017, 10:40 AM

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Posts: 2,754


chapter 6

100 million lives DEMOCIDE

6- Healthcare USA style, MAD, Mutually Assured Death

Clearly actual USA POPULATION is falling and FALLING quicker than one would expect. PEAK USA population … PEAK …. I suspect something not seen EVER according to USA census, with ZERO NET ILLEGAL immigration, less than a million legal and falling birth rates, increasing DEATH RATES, PEAK USA population likely in 2040 .

With CDC producing a very slow, inaccurate in the extreme, still working on 2014 numbers and even Census using again absurd forward projections in most instances, the fact is, Census likely will revise its estimated 2050 population number DOWNWARDS towards 350 million by 2030. Less than 50 years prior to that, the accurate estimated number would have been around 450 million given present immigration levels and birth rates.

What changed ?

Whoops is that 100 million LESS ? Post 2050 think like Japan if this policy goes on in relation to the USA overall population. An increasing mortality in the lower 80% is NO less devastating on overall population numbers than the issues with Japan.


Mark M

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Sep 28 2017, 09:34 AM

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Posts: 2,754


it is strange to now see Trump announce the expected 20% tax for corporates. At best .... best estimate is that 70% of these tax cuts go to the top 1% ... the only other estimate has it near 80% !!

Of course, the short version of what is gong on, is that if you actually abandon financial support for the elderly, as they have, paying someone $15,000- on one hand and then demanding it be paid back in the form of insurance to cover gaps in Medicare no longer covered .... or not fully covered leaves people net ZERO income.

A choice, you can have lower taxes if you have less support for people in the form of healthcare and welfare. I would hasten to add paying 12.6% of your pay since 1983 into social security ... so 34 years at that rate and another 10 years around 10% ... would you be inclined to call the guaranteed pension your meant to get ... welfare ?

What is NOT well known other than to the elderly and those in poorer health is the massive amount that is not covered by free over age 65 medicare and its bloody massive.

This all to one side, the numbers pre age 65 white ... showed no improvement for the most recent ones. What I was more interested in was a fall in the post age 65 outcomes first seen in 2013 then more in 2014 and 2015 and the latest 2016 and 2017 number have fallen off a cliff.

All added together will change the outcomes of many industires in the USA let alone a fiscal planning nightmare .... then again they dont care. If we have several govet departments calling for 500 million popuption in the USA by 2050 and its likely NOW to be UNDER 350 million ..... possibly and I say this sadly POSSIBLY even 330 million basically unchanged ... the missing 150 - 200 million taxpayers will blow any budget to bits. Main factors about equal and ALL massivly negative ... those being a falling birth rate ... there will NOT be some baby boom ... second is immigration it will at best be 1 million legals .... IF that .... hence the fuzz between 350 and 325 million .... thrid illegals likely to be net zero .... and lastly FALLING life expectancy ... and if its worst case and its looking that way but early days for the post age 65 outcomes .... USA will Peak POPULATION AT ABOUT 335 MILLION AND THEN GO DOWN ....

Japan at least has no issues with life expectancy ... its fall is due to ultra low birth rates and low migration .... USA a mix of the above.

Sadly, who cares ... when Trump promises the voters relief ... the relief for the average person is around 1% .... yep thats it ... 1% ... and that will dissapear in a blink.

NOT ALL BAD NEWS .... some relief at the very low end with a lot of the larger employers moving minimum wage upwards .... and by some decent amounts. Target went to $10- minimum as did s few others and Target goes to $11- this year and $15- by 2018 or so they say. NOT many have gone this far, in fact none .... most have just got rid of the obvious $8- and below wages ....

Still leaves about half those there below $8- even now in 2017 ... that were there in 2013 ...

its a start but needs more uniform coverage.

Will come out with the rest of the chapters soon ... nothing too startling given what i have already said. One becomes that way when you see moves like the one Trump just announced.

take care


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Sep 27 2017, 10:57 AM

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Posts: 2,754


Sorry got distracted ....

Hi there,


Apologies on the delay. A few reasons, one main one is that I got my hands on some 2017 up to date mortality numbers from the USA along with the 2016 ones.

Second reason is that along with them, the USA announced the largest fall in those under the poverty level since the GFC and also the largest rise in Median income at 4.6% for the last 12 months.

Both actually required some work to see what they meant and taking the second one first, the rise in median income announced, as one expect it HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH RISING INCOME. Big statement, again not an opinion but based 100% on fact. The average income, AVERAGE only rose by 2.55% in the 12 months measured so HOW the hell did the median family income supposedly rise nearly double that rate ? IT DIDN'T is the simple answer.

Methodology change yet again at the census bureau USA saw more bullshit being counted as factual when it HAD NOTHING … not a thing to do with MEDIAN incomes of either individuals or families.

Going as always to the source, the fact is LOWER incomes , ones even 80% of the average, let alone near 40% as is the median wage earners $12 an hour IS … DO NOT and have NOT for many years been able to keep up with rises even for inflation some years. The RISE …. RISE in wages on an hourly basis in the median REGION only went up by less than HALF the AVERAGE in the 2016-2017 period NOT by the CLAIMED 4 times that level.

Bottom line some at the lower end of the wage scale have virtually NO power to get their employers to raise their incomes and for some, they have been on the same hourly rate for 10 years or more.

The absurdity of the current Census Bureau number on median family income, if we pretended that there were two adults in the family, the near $59,000- income now claimed would involve at $12- an hour someone working a total of 94.5 hours a week. Even BOTH parent working …. BOTH … at 47.25 hours each is possible, but NOT CREDIBLE or even accurate.

Bottom line again a clear indication that the USA intends to blame it all on the poor and CLAIM they are earning $25,000- MORE as a family than they are …

On the mortality numbers …. I was looking to see if any change in the 2017 under 65 white mortality numbers and they got WORSE … not better WORSE … and the over age 65 numbers seem to have fallen off a cliff the older people get. Again consistent with limited paid medical care and at this stage … not in the public's view. Until it happens to them, who cares …. sadly they all should.

Continued on PDF ...

Cheers Mark

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 26 2017, 11:50 AM

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Posts: 2,754


Chapter 5

100 million lives DEMOCIDE

5- Lower than low- theft from below the poverty level

THERE ARE NO SPIKES IN CPI .... according to them2000-2008 . There was NO GFC, NO house price rise of 100% between 2000 and pre GFC peak and NO rises in anything else. Hence the missing 25% of CPI shaved off the poor and fixed to CPI income side. Basically the poor lost ... again .. even the stupidest of economists can SEE this is missing. Why cant Yellen or Bernanke ?

Actions so far .... in the USA post 1980

Virtually wiped out its middle class.

Lower middle class resides where working poor/poverty used to be.


Mark M

All rights reserved.

All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own research and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 21 2017, 10:44 AM

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Posts: 2,754


Chapter 4

100 million lives DEMOCIDE

4-USA cost in lives so far 10 million till 2010, rising to 50 - 100 million

Again confirming the lack of humanity a government hell bent on stealing from the poor and killing them to cover it up, can and will go to.

This above again highlights their new benchmark for being poor/ in poverty. It fell from 34.33% of the average wage in 1994 to a mere 23.29% in 2017.

Anything the Leaders, NOT THE PEOPLE of the USA have to say, to my nation, or any other, should be ignored and treated with deserved complete contempt.


Mark M

All rights reserved.

All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own research and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 13 2017, 10:44 AM

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Posts: 2,754


Chapter 3

100 million lives DEMOCIDE

3 Demographics-theft of 30 trillion v280 million loosing 25 years of life

Driver less cars .... FOR a POPUALTION FREE USA ? I get it now, driver-less and passenger less cars, going no where, all to pretend there are NOT 100 million dead ? Well done. AI was meant to be the threat to humanity, as always is the case, the real threat is LACK OF HUMAN INTELLIGENCE that will end us well prior to that it seems.


Mark M

All rights reserved.

All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own research and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 7 2017, 12:31 PM

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Posts: 2,754


Chapter 2

100 million lives DEMOCIDE

2 Oligarchy - Who really is in charge ... DEMOCIDE


Democide can also include deaths arising from "intentionally or knowingly reckless and depraved disregard for life"; this brings into account many deaths arising through various neglects and abuses, such as forced mass starvation.


Mark M

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 7 2017, 11:19 AM

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Posts: 2,754


The actual FACTS are likely ones which I will cover in the eventual 10 chapters, as simply as I can. Others, such as referring to OLD pulling apart of things such as CPI and NON Farm payrolls, volumes surrounding those things are on this thread.

But will go over it when finished and polish it. What is a FACT, is something sceintifically proven and beyond reasonable doubt. That said, FACTS change, or so they seem. When someone wishes to cover something up and changes methodology in how something is measured, changes it to something that does not resemble 80 other nations methods, FACTS and PROOF become blurred. Not really when one examines WHAT changes have been made to measures.

Then again, just read on, and see where it is at the end .... the FACTS and changes are quite clear via various departments in the USA and this drift started in earnest pre 2000 , frustated me 2000 - GFC ... post GFC ... its out of control.

Anyhow, one with chapter 2.


Mark M
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 4 2017, 01:42 PM

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Posts: 2,754


Finally ... its going to still take time ... 10 chapters

Number one

100 million lives DEMOCIDE

1/ Extinction Level Alert . USA Equities, global implications

As of today 26th July 2017 all three of my Models in effect are screaming over-valuation and we have FINALLY reached the target as identified over 12 months ago of 2,480-2,500 on the First two models.

Nothing CHANGED for me to set off my Adjusted RISK model other than the market having HIT what is clearly historically idiotic valuations.

Well I may be telling a lie on WHAT set off my NOW demanding as of today another 25% on RISK making one measure of it 300% overvalued the VANILLA risk model but the RISK adjusted after demanding 25% MORE ... its at 400% ... Higher than even 1929 and a level that IS DRIVEN by a belief that of the three biggest risks to humanity, one being Nuclear, one being climate change the third is clearly associated with the first two, via impacts potentially it has one them.


Mark M

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Feb 22 2017, 12:07 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


a real quick one.

The high ... my robotic technical trading thing has in mind for the s+p 500 was and is 2,487.4 .....

Whilst it WAS WELL over 10% higher than the market and the fact MR Trump got elected .... I thought gee this is going to take some time.

Well we have 4% more to go.

Market as always knows best. Priced as always for perfection, or at rare times for the end of the world.

What the catalyst is for the correction, is and could be a very long list of things. The list is growing with MR Trump displaying the arrogance of the Oligarchy running things. In the past, USA was sneaky conducting what amounted to economic war on others, terrorism .... now sadly he has left very little sugar coating on anything.

Post WW2 when USA was the worlds largest creditor till about 1980, interest rates were set 2% over inflation on average, now post 1990, taking into account massive under reporting of USA inflation and the post GFC rate regime, rates have been set MINUS 2% in real terms.

A great arrangement for the USA, sadly its dominance globally is on the wane and the bond rates for EU nations one clearly can see this. Yellen on the other hand had no idea, I mean none about anything. She is going to raise rates whether its her choice or the world demanding it on the longer end of USA bonds. So this is a negative for the economy. NO way she can delay it. Other side Trump builds a few roads and dams, will just add to this pressure on the bond side.

By the way, the 20 trillion party can start now and the USA just hit that number on its debt.

Scary stuff on their fiscal side is the spending on social security and medicare in 8 years rose by a whopping 1 trillion. When your only collecting 3.3 trillion in taxes, the baby boomers impact does not end till 2029 and only started in 2012, you may see some reason to be concerned.

What of course is missing is some pool of savings for medicare to pay for free healthcare post age 65 and the same for social security. Yes there is 4 trillion and falling, but the cost of paying 100 million pensions at $15,000- for 20 years is 30 trillion alone and healthcare the same sort of amount. When the GDP is 18.7 trillion, and debt is over 100% in 2017 and you have no plan to get more tax, and in fact increase military spending to boot ....

Nothing new ... the numbers have not added up for ages. Never will.

The poor average American, loyal and patriotic as they should be to the end, have sadly misplaced their trust. How far ... even I am amazed at what the loose Oligarchy has done to some of the numbers ... I am still working slowly on them but my mind has been blown by what they have done.

Mr Buffett and MR GAtes meanwhile give all their money away which is to be applauded, sadly, Mr Buffett well aware of the fact he pays too little tax is just as much a part of this creation as the ring leaders. Of course HE and anyone is not expected to be so stupid to pay MORE tax than they should. That said, other side, flip side is that I doubt either MR Gates or MR Buffett have EVER paid anything towards say disability insurance except on the first 1% of their income. Same to for medical help for those born disabled ....

As income rises, so should tax, not to punish the rich .... not to even hamper them in any way !! But when his secretary is paying 34% overall in taxes .... and MR Buffet pays 15.53% ... some thing has gone seriously wrong in the USA. Same state of affairs basically since about 1980, one loophole closed on the tax side and 3 more open ....

MR TRUMP, Some of his threats might actually do some good, but at the core of things in the USA is that 80% of the people are basically living off under $25,000- and the average of this 80% .... the average income of the lower 80% is around $18,000- or the bloody poverty line.

IN 2017 around 66% of global growth is going to come from where ? Asia .... China , India and so on.

Take care

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 30 2017, 12:40 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Still going ...

still struggling ....

it is of course the end play this one of a saga that has been going on my whole adult life.

Trump is a distraction, and like most I am becoming ... distracted.

Lots of theories out there, some very very good anes but the most obvious one, the reality which cannot be overlooked even by the totally blind gets not a mention.

Like so many times in the past, this is investing and the more noise I create the more distracted you become. Well for most. Sadly I had to build my own financial models many years ago to keep track of things, even normally easy things, unemployment, CPI GDP and so on from the USA now resemble numbers out of Nigeria or Zimbabwe.

Noise out of UK and EU .... irrelevant ... and I say this with respect, its a deliberate distraction and a most welcome one for the players in this game.

For now, my best call is STILL remain long USA side and the top of marekt s still about 10% higher from here.

Yes 10% higher ...

Of course trying to estimate peoples stupidity, is not always a good thing, but there are lots of my models pointing in this direction. The reported numbers out of the USA will be good, reality .... is moving the other way and has been for some time. Slowly and surely the momentum is gathering pace DOWNWARDS pace verses number that have less and less relationship and are deliberate and total fictions.

Hard if not impossible to see the forest thru the trees and the noise and distraction is only going to get worse. As someone who spoke pre 2000 dot com collapse about those events, the lows in 2002 and the stimulus fiscally post 9/11 and interest rates at lows not seen since 1929 .... the rise pre GFC and its collapse was just a blip.

Post GFC, they stimulate fiscally and monetary side even more so the corpse rose form the dead and the band aid cancer patient who in fact passed away in 2004, still lives. As the GFC and the full horror of the loans made to people with no income and no security unfolded, the call was until ... until we saw the white of their eyes ... it was not over.

Mr HAnk Paulson declared the GFC crash over time and time and time again ... eventually however a simple fact ..... one simple fact ensured that he was wrong and it was NOT over .... the fact that some institutions had declared losses that were massive and over 5 years total previous years profits, in the meantime .... the other half of the banking side ... same assets and bonds on their books ... on the main declared NO losses or small ones and refused to mark to market their books ... all be it with approval of their govt.

Eventually that was not enough and they had to face reality ... which they did for one second and then in ode the government and USA fed appointed by the banks themselves and saved the day.

Sadly not a bloody thing was learnt and we head into the next one .... a stock marekt that clearly WAS a bubble in 2000 .... fully revived to identical levels in 2017 adjusted for GDP and Inflation .... not the rubbish they put t but the ACTUAL and FACTUAL numbers.

IF sked would it be wise for the Japanes to try and get their stock marekt back to 39,000- or whatever the peak was in 1990 , I would have called any attempt to do so ... stupid idiotic ... so i wish to congratulate Mr Bernanke, Greenspan and YEllen for being able to do so ... along with Goldman Sqchs their employer and employer of all the USA TREASURY HEADS SINCE ABOUT 2002.

Of course if I adjusted the REAL peak in 1990 for Jaoan in their stocks to 2017, the adjusted high would be a 57,000- peak in todays terms.

The 1,500 odd peak in 2000 of the S+P 500 adjusted for todays value ..... is .... just where we are now .... !!

This is again an aside from the real show and REAL picture .... and like most things its about money and greedy needy people.
I am trying to collate all the players and mess into one saga and its taking forever sadly as the Trump and Judy show keeps distracting me.

Maybe Mexico declares war on the USA ? Then again, Australia, whilst Turnbull is giving his best arse kissing impression I have ever seen .... and will wish he had some balls, reality is that USA and Trumps views about America first are and will always make anyone else a Mexico.

Not to the ordinary person I must say, but control clearly has been lost of the nation once known as USA and whilst Trum claims its all for the people, he is very much part of the problem that I am waiting for some media person to go ... hey ... isn't there 100 trillion missing from this equation ??

Maybe someone will. Then again having to read up on some awful parts of world history and will share with MR Trump so as he and his fellow non tax payers can ensure the upcoming event will pass quickly without notice.

Chances of that, about zero.

Have fun ...

OH our marekt sucking a bit of wind of late ... tried the top only to fall back .... but for now the USA suspect still has some legs ... till they drop off ... along with all other body parts on the corpse.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 2 2017, 10:24 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


happy 2017 to all.

I wish it wasn't so ... but as per usual things appear one way and are in fact the other. So far the other way, I suspect even the most perceptive of all market animals is aware if they are on the crest of the wave or at the bottom of some unforeseen rally.

As Always I am speaking from a USA perspective ... and do so as we will follow them as always whether they rally or fall.

There are of course solutions, even at this late stage, but Trump has no interest and possibly idea of what is going on. His proposal to cut taxes and the BEST one I have seen so far gives 3 trillion to the rich over 10 years.

AUstralia .... I kiss the ground and a robust media and system where the PM can and will be called an idiot from time to time. Both parties here overall have done a fantastic job ... one to be proud of.

Sadly we need NOW to protect our investments but also I suspect need more robust rules to deal with what has been attempted in the past and surely will be in the very near future.

Anyhow .... i Will plod along with it ...

take care and happy new year
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 2 2017, 10:24 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


happy 2017 to all.

I wish it wasn't so ... but as per usual things appear one way and are in fact the other. So far the other way, I suspect even the most perceptive of all market animals is aware if they are on the crest of the wave or at the bottom of some unforeseen rally.

As Always I am speaking from a USA perspective ... and do so as we will follow them as always whether they rally or fall.

There are of course solutions, even at this late stage, but Trump has no interest and possibly idea of what is going on. His proposal to cut taxes and the BEST one I have seen so far gives 3 trillion to the rich over 10 years.

AUstralia .... I kiss the ground and a robust media and system where the PM can and will be called an idiot from time to time. Both parties here overall have done a fantastic job ... one to be proud of.

Sadly we need NOW to protect our investments but also I suspect need more robust rules to deal with what has been attempted in the past and surely will be in the very near future.

Anyhow .... i Will plod along with it ...

take care and happy new year
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Dec 30 2016, 02:01 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

no sorry for the delay ... this will be a while. About a month ... end Jan 2017

Don't worry ... whilst a stopping point on the S+P 500 at recent highs and a serious one .... that I doubt will be the high. My computer model, the pure technical mechanical one puts the chances of the recent S&P 500 high ... all time high on the USA markets being one of any significance at less than 15% chance ... me ... and this is opinion based upon other factors,other fundamental computer value models .... rates the chances at less than 1%.

I do know what my models are telling me the likely high will be and its miles away.

Yes I know Janet raised rates ... second time in a decade ...

her threatening 3 more rises in 2017 ? Yeah and she will pay 0.75% MORE interest on 4 trillion in bonds she needs to fund.

Nope no rush ... Trump looks like a winner ...

My issues are massive .... NOT NEW ... history goes back a long way ... but to get perspective ... as MAGS said I am having trouble.

Whilst doing well and slowly our market plays a bit of catch up ... I feel like when I went long Uranium stocks very briefly .... in and out for a big gain ... but knowing the end result would be what it was.

FACTS are hard to come by .... FAKE NEWS ... FAKE this fake that ... I note with amusement and a degree of sadness I cannot even begin to share that two poverty studies came out recently .... both USED fake statistics and still USA came 8/9 or 10 out of 10 .... for both of them. IF the actual numbers were used .... and they are NOT hard to bloody find ... FACTUAL NUMBERS .. America ... CAME 11TH IN A 10 HORSE RACE.

A very clear picture of the plan is and was fairly clear .... sadly ... any economic number reported in the USA is now under the direction of one member of the cabal or another. To rebuild a single number so it represents say what the EU or Germany or Japan or Australia calls say CPI takes 3-4 hours.

I am working my way through them, not crucial to the overall picture .... just want all ducks lined up and backed up via scientific fact before I let this one go.

In 1929 .... my overall value index I built myself ... I called it the Kahuna Index and did share a few years ago ... it got to 273.4% of fair value way back then ....

IN 2000 we didn't get close to that overall ... yes over 200% of fair value ... basically 3 times where it should be trading ... not 4 times ...

In 2007 we topped out the USA at close to the 2000 high in the S+P 500 so allowing for inflation and GDP growth it was about 10% lower ....

Now after 10 years of what I call idiot economists ... climate deniers ... flat earth idiots ... bubble blind dicks ... I wish to congratulate them ... finally ... it looks as though two totally unrelated computer models of mine ... WILL MEET ... YES MEET the old 1929 high in terms of value meets ... 6 different massive technical levels and at the same time ....

Like in 2007 .... at the same time .... the underlying market was evaporating ... and meanwhile back then the BEA was reporting the USA economy grew 4.9% in Q3 2007 .... my comment then was Citibank just went bankrupt .... not technically but actually .... and it was the first of many ...

Here in 2016 .... or 2017 ... I suspect we have a little ways to go ... Trump is full of hot air .... Yellen needs to preside over her third disaster and the first was the S+L crisis and the largest worst lender out of San Fran ... under San Fran Fed president YEllens supervision .... Countrywide .... pre GFC asked if she thought there was a bubble in San Fran prices which had tripled .... she went NO ... asked if she did she a bubble would she raise rates ... he answer was no ... and asked if she had a brain .... she went NO.

I am annoyed with these people ... but for now ... no rush.

Last time I did a set of papers was 2013/14 ... and that was talking about Debt and how the USA Fed if it raised rates in 2014 ... it would be technically broke .. I went on to speak at length about EU bonds and this brewing debt issue .... the conclusion WAS EU was being attacked via proxy ... via the USA and ratings agencies were being controlled and grossly unfair in lowering credit ratings of EU nations which as a group collect 40% of GDP in tax.

In simple terms EU nations all owing around 110% of GDP in debt ... had 40% of GDP coming in each year .... and my view was they had balanced the books ... which is clear in 2017 YES they fixed the leak ... have funded the baby boomers and demographic time bomb ... and as such I thought it was idiotic that Italy with debt to GDP at say 120% income of 40% of GDP had to pay 2.5% MORE than the USA for its debt when the USA ... when measured IGNORING its unfunded pensions .... USA was 100% in debt but only collected 27% overall in taxes and of this a mere 17% is collected federally .... 17% to fund 100% debt .... v Italy 40% to fund 120% ... which is the better risk ...

well stuff me the cat got out of the bag and the world FINALLY woke up to the sad reality and here we have the Yanks now paying more than Italy and even Spain for their debt.

By the time I am finished this paper .... people ... will begin to wonder a bit more. Its sad ... heartbreaking and not a thing I do or say will change anything as per normal.

People do what they wish ... UNTIL they don't.

The time-line is finite and explosive I suspect this time ....

Trump is just a distraction ... no chance he is a solution because ... because ... for the usual reason NO ONE or very few see the actual problem.

That's what happens when you play with Statistics ... you have no idea what is UP or down ... when you do the same with budgets ... pensions and its being done by 50 different self interest lobbying groups ... no one has an idea what they have created.

A mess sadly the understatement of the year on this one.

Back next year ... 2017 ... merry new year ... and by the end of Trumps first 4 years, all 8 million Vietnam Era Veterans will have retired ... of them 2.8 million served actually in Vietnam ....

My mythical couple Billy Bob and Sallie Mae .. salt of the earth types and with a gun collection of 109 guns ... having been told in 2008 their county pensions were cut in half .... I am actually not about to tell them that in 2017 ... their pension instead of making an absurd return of 8% each year has only been making 1% and during Trumps term .... their county pensions will be cut again in half so something likely 20% of what they thought they were getting for 30 years of being underpaid by the county ... their retirement pension is .... well ... gone.

Will MR Bush .... oops sorry Trump tell them ... the Federal one is ... gone ? Or more accurately never was there ? How will they take it ? How will 80 million of the 100 million baby boomers utterly reliant upon these pensions for old age take it ?

I am sure it will be fine ....

Be prepared for some spicy comments when I am done .... NO PUNCHES will be pulled ....

That's what's taking the time ... the scope and lack of humanity .... one side ... getting facts ... FACTS V Opinions ... Scientific Facts and so I can congratulate these people correctly.

Ahh must run .... but nope high I suspect ... a way aways ...

Take care

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Nov 20 2016, 05:04 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


its time ...

but will take a while to write it.

Welcome to the new world. Revolution occurred .... people desperate for change /// polarized voting and voted for the one person or candidate who already has said he will NOT do three simple things and the ONLY things that will help.

He in fact said the opposite in most cases to what is desperately needed.

And those three things are ?

Nothing new from me ...they are the only solution and they just sadly voted the one candidate in that utterly assures the poor of no change.

Back in a week or two with the novel.

Most if not many have any idea what happened and why ... especially in the USA.

It is with great regret USA now fighting what is a bush-fire and all poor people desperate for change ctuall elected a madman who believe putting more petrol on the fire will work ...

I pray for vision but sadly the line has been cast.

Cheers back in Dec
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 21 2016, 10:43 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


talk about instant gratification. The USA overnight had a shocker and then the magic rally !!

The low I talked about holding, and one I prattled about being one of those barriers … invisible to most but still there at 1,810 on the S+P 500 …. the low for cash last night ? 1,811 and then it rallied 3% … low for futures around the 1,805 mark.

I made a typo on the TIN HAT day #3 about the top levels … sure most saw it … about 6 major ones … all of them are in the 2,111-2,139 … with 5 of the 6 in the 2,122-2,139 range … where the market stopped.

From here ? I feel you know my longer term views … short term if they are true to form a rally and all is well will occur as it does in the USA and back up not to the highs but the 2,040-50 range for the S+P 500. Risk is UP v Down until the 1,810 breaks which it tried and spat it back and rallied.

Was asked about debt, personal debt.

Well GFC saw USA loose massive amounts of home-owners who just walked away from their loans and as such home ownership there is at 30 year lows. Along with this the debt to for the consumer fell from near 100% of GDP to a mere 82%.

Australia HAS high debt to GDP on the personal side. It also has many other things. USA net wealth and Australia are about the same, depends on the currency level. But the difference and a massive one is that the average wealth lets say of close to $400,000- in Australia is closely followed by MEDIAN wealth being around $300,000-.

USA on the other hand, has a median Wealth of $100,000- , that is the MIDDLE person has 33% of the assets the middle person in Australia has.

I know the IMF and OECD have tried this pony on Australia, but again its a form of bloody terrorism !! Wealth in the USA is NOT spread, as such GFC hits and we have people with NO backing equity owning houses with NO income and in some cases no documentation.

If we look at MEDIAN net debt to GDP and that being more relevant than the crap these people push on us, we find the median person has assets NET assets of $300,000- and YES the debt may be $60,000- so overall assets are $360,000- MINUS $60,000- in debt the ratio is for a banker and anyone with a brain, which I assure you the IMF does not have is a ratio of 6/1. USA GFC time it was loans to people that were even below the median wealth and NET had no assets that caused so much pain. Asset values go up … they go down … but the issue is LEVERAGE.

In this we have someone owning Super say worth $200,000- a house worth $800,000- but a mortgage of $200,000-. Net assets in this case are $800,000-. Basically the size of the mortgage. Overall many don't have this type of debt and the Average … quite different from the median in most cases … I am using the MEDIAN as its harsher and the MEDIAN Australian has a loan for $60,000- assets Gross at $360,000- or 6 times that. USA even now, median at $100,000- so gross assets at $150,000- and a loan for $50,000-. So the ratio and safety net …. in the USA is 3 times for the median person. Not 6 ….. bloody 3 …..

Is there anything to worry about here ? Yes and no. Sydney prices and the debt levels are much MORE … but banks are not fools and APRA just tightened the screws AGAIN … on what banks can do and if you noted, our banks yet again raised MORE capital.

In the USA for instance, the banks capital at times I have big issues with. Super for their employee's is managed and held by the bank and the benevolent USA Fed, owned by said banks, said USA banks can take and use the SUPER of their employee's and count that as capital. In most cases it makes up 20% of the RESERVES as the USA Fed calls them of any bank.

Again, I come back to idiotic asset prices in the USA for commercial properties and I gave the example of NY Manhattan prices but much the same rise has been seen in all 5 boroughs of NY and that's massive. Any repayment pain inflicted by moving rates from all time artificial lows of 3% to 5% in any bank test is actually compared with a straight face to our banks being tested for 3% NOT 2% and the 3% started on home loans at 6% …. to see how banks would cope and borrowers at 9%.

Comparing an apple to a pineapple is why the IMF head when invited to functions here should be seated in daycare centre with the children. The stress tests conducted on EU banks were similar to our own and much more rigorous than the joke that happened at USA banks. Kind of expect it when the person conducting the tests is owned by said banks.

Anyhow, for me … personal … state debts … not an issue overall. Do feel we need to go to 12% super mind you …. but we are planning that anyhow.

Take care


PS … the Pub … the correct one in Walgett will be obvious when you arrive. Either way the guide picture is on page one of the PDF.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 20 2016, 08:36 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


took a while ... it is long ... nothing much new ...


take care

Mark M

Attached File  Tin_Hat_Day__3.pdf ( 1.12MB ) Number of downloads: 171
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 14 2016, 09:54 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


oh how the world changes.

We humans are very inventive and with fracking and opening of even tar sands, any long term oil shortage went out the window.
Iron ore, same same ....

When you have the majors sitting on their hands pre GFC with known and high grade deposits ... and post GFC despite an oversupplied market ... flooding it .... again out the window go many things.

Oil, with fracking the USA alone pumping 3 million more barrels a day .... which is massive. Sadly the cost of it ... and those who ended up buying the bonds will loose money and most on their knee's right now. The end owners in many cases were the poor mums and dads in the USA chasing a yield ... any yield ended up with Junk paper yet no idea of the risks. I suspect 2016 see's some fall ... 2017 a lot more on the USA side.

Nothing new I suppose in all of this.

What is amazing as always, the big picture .... and now in 2016 even me with 30 odd years in the market cannot rely on many economic statistics released. China and its numbers are fictions .... we all know things are not great there now .... India even more a joke. When it comes to the USA ... same thing the numbers are called the same thing that say Germany or Australia release ... GDP CPI and so on ... that sadly is where the relationship ends.

To steer the way forward, one needs HONEST and ACCURATE and reliable numbers to steer policy measures.

Sadly .... people, companies ... even governments are left relying upon total rubbish.

When one goes from the bottom up, the same issues occur. One company uses one set of rules to report .. pays no tax anywhere, depreciation is at double the rate of competitors and like on the MAcro side, people are comparing things as though they are the same ... or even related ... but sadly they are not.

Most intelligent thing I heard said of late was out of the EX Dallas Fed head ... Fisher ... not the deputy to Yellen but another Jewish man called Fisher who was a voting member on the fed till last year. ... he said the US fed had cooked things to make asset prices rise and accepted ... they may have created a bubble.

In a normal world, commercial real estate NEVER trades at 2% ... because within 25 years .. the building needs to be gutted for new technology and there is RISK .... 4% or 5% .... MINIMUM.

Going to resources, people mumble about the damage the USA Feds policy did .... or does ... hundreds of billions of junk bonds were sold to finance the fracking in the USA. Instead of in any normal world where RISK is taken into account ... instead of having to pay 4-5% MORE to raise money ... making the whole economics unlikely to work ... the projects were flooded with cash and people happy to take 2% over government bonds and any potential loss in the future ... something that was NEVER on the cards or so they thought.

So many things overseas are like this ... it makes my head hurt .... Amazon a company that rarely makes money ... massive market power ... but P/E of 990 .... sits there with Apple at a P/E of 11 .... and then in the midst of that we have Microsoft and Google in the 30 P/E range ... which one is safe ? None I suspect to be honest.

Last time Microsoft was up here .... was in 2000 and that went so well ... Apple well if paid the correct tax ... I suspect its own P/E would be double .... as for Amazon and Twitter and a heap of things floated of late .... the 6 billion dollar company that makes $10 million .... gee is that 600 P/E ...

Australia and our market is strangely not in that idiocy ... but of course they sell the USA ... and down we go.

Back to commodities, for a long time, I have hoped some intrinsic value may be placed in the FINITE nature of them. Nope not going to happen. Oil with horizontal drilling and fracking makes even a tight oil deposit possible to get unheard of recoveries ... instead of 40% of oil in ground ... double that .... that is a massive thing.

Iron ore ... well my issue is with statistics more than anything else ... the Chinese ones clearly UNDERSTATED activity pre GFC and now overstate it ...

Resource companies relying upon these things to make long term plans ... thought the Chines economy was a lot stronger than it clearly is right now.. So some excuse for RIO and BHP expansions .... but not much of one. They basically destroyed their own market by flooding an over supplied market with product.

Certainly is interesting to watch ... thankfully from the sidelines on the resource side.

Take care

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 5 2015, 01:37 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


will do something along the normal lines ... but don't have the time at present. Might be a few weeks.

Nothing in reality has changed.

Yellen and the zero forever policy well in place. Non farm payrolls yet again we see more and more removed via the falling participation rate , and conversely more added to those on Food stamps or not counted at all.

Yes of course at some stage they will raise rates, not about to bet, its 100% against the interests of the USA to raise rates to NORMAL or about 1.25% above inflation and that would be 2.5% ...

I cannot see that happening for a few years, IF EVER.

The if ever is because as time goes on the inevitable and ONLY outcome of policies put in place 30 years ago will take precedence.

Will Japan or China move some of their foreign currency reserves out ? If so when ? Long shot I suspect.

It comes down to simple math.

USA collects overall 27% of its GDP in tax.

Post age 65 and rising to 67 in 2022, it promises free healthcare for all the elderly.

People over age 65 are 10 times more likely to have 3 or more chronic conditions and as such be disabled.

The disability pension scheme in the USA just went broke, so they decided to take money from the old age pension system or Survivors.

This pension system ONCE .... use to pay around $20,000- a year on average in real terms.

By 2014 its down to $15,000- in real terms ... and the plan is to take it to $10,000- for the simple reason that they could not afford it.

Greenspan pre election at the Fed with Regan back in 1986 and yep I was around then massively raised social security and yep did see that the old age threshold in 2022 should be raised .... but instead of the roughly 60 trillion the fund should have in it ... the new tax hike went into general funding and was spent .... NOT SAVED ... Spent.

America did have Clinton who tried ... and had a plan which MAY have salvaged things longer term but Monica and her party dress got somewhat in the way ..... but he still did have a massive surplus in 2015 when he changed things in 1999. Bush then walked in and reversed all that, gave tax cuts to the rich, gave companies an amensety where they could bring their stolen profits back to the USA and not pay 30% corporate tax as it was then but I think 14% ....

It is theft .... but that aside.

In 2015 with just over 10% of GDP in Social Security, not 250-300% as most nations have for the elderly .... time has passed for the inevitable outcome.

Projection prepared in the USA with no media able to question things, the rich and corrupt making estimations that even a pre school kid know are wrong sadly will see then end like a tidal wave in coming years.

Sounds so happy, but sadly so true.

Of Americans, 40% ... DO NOT have any retirement savings at all .... and rely totally on Social Security which was intended to be like our super system ... but Regan and with Greenspan and a lot of others help became WELFARE. Instead of funds being set aside and saved, they were spent, instead of investing in all asset classes, not just bonds, and hypothetical bonds at that, even the measure savings have not benefited at all from a massive rally in stock's and property values over the last 30 years.

So 40% have zero and they intend to cut the pension to $10,000- in real terms.

Well ... it gets better ... or worse .... take your pick. The corrupt bureaucrats actually do have a contingent liability ... one that at present there will be a short fall of tax at around 100 trillion. Of that about 15 trillion for Social Security and thats even using $10,000- .... Medicare the free healthcare for the elderly at 27 trillion. Bottom line 100 trillion is over 500% of the GDP of the USA.

these estimates ARE FAKE and underestimate the cost I believe and can prove in two ways> The size is actually I suspect DOUBLE this by any fair estiamte. Secondly this cost apparently does not hit till 2055 and beyond in any large way.

Again false as in 2055, a baby boomer from the start 1947 will be 108 years old, one from 1964 if we go to the extreme end of what some call the baby boom .... they will be 91. Basically post age 65 you will live on average 20 years, some will of course depart early others late. Going to a mid point of all of this bull dust the USA sprouts .... it will implode certainly by 2030 .... even 2025 is a stretch.

Why ?

Old people have families as well. Are they going to accept their parents being paid below the poverty line ?

Pensions with near record asset prices and ABSURD ones for some real estate on the commercial side which rival the Japanese crash of post 1990 ...... USA pensions outside social security are underfunded to the extreme.

SO what about those with retirement assets the 60% who do. The median of this group is $100,000- . Its not going to last given the plan s to erode the actual pensions.

Secondly .... whilst free healthcare .... post age 65, the average cost for a couple ABOVE the free medicare healthcare is currently a whopping $220,000- from retirement age till death.

So we have 40% with ZERO ...

We have 60% with a median of a mere $100,000- so MAYBE the median ones can actually afford to buy the prescriptions that cost double .....

Sadly however I would say even those with the top 20% in retirement savings will find it virtually impossible to survive.

Same old same old ..... tick tock.

Its going to be slow .... and when the tide goes out and the retirement plans of 100 million Americans are for about 90 million of them .... NAKED and BROKE ....

the world she is a changing.

EU, Australia .... and everyone else accepts around a 40% tax scheme .... to take care of the fact that we now live till age 85 or more ...

This even is without any serious advance which is possible in medicine and a cure for say Dementure or Parkinson's .... or bloody cancer

Basically the rich in the USA pay little tax ..... companies even less .... strange world and whilst the end is somewhere in the future, the course has been set and all steam ahead.

As to the current market ...

USA side stopped .... stopped exactly on a point .... the peak ....

Is this the start ? Likely not. Yellen will just declare zero forever ...

Oh she has
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Sep 28 2015, 03:15 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Hi A quickie ...

was wrong then .... believed Yellen would raise rates .... in 2014 ....

Silly me.

I do think she pulls the trigger in 2015 but it will be so slow ..... so slow that watching water evaporate will be quicker.
In the meantime, the USA and its plans for the elderly ? And the election going on .... not a word.

If you have 40% with ZERO retirement savings. The median of the other 60% is $100,000- and Medicare which is free healthcare post age 65 still costs $220,000- in outgoings above the free cover ... and your plan is to reduce in real terms the pension from today's $15,000- to $10,000- and it once was $20,000- back in 1995 in real terms, for me ... well don't hold your breath.

What is stunning is despite putting 12.4% between employer and employee into the fund its got less than 13% of the USA GDP in it.

As the baby boomers retire, each year from 2013 till 2029, the pressure will mount and we are just at 2015.
Sadly, and with great regret, what they had in their super funds, is NOW CALLED WELFARE. Regan was the first to pevert this, but along his side and calling it also Welfare is none other than Greenspan . Bernanke had his hand in it and Yellen even prior to that.

Sadly ... Bill Clinton did actually have a plan .... and stated all money going in stayed there ... Bush of course undid all that and gave tax cuts for the rich.

Clinton sadly was unable to finish his plan ... had something to do with a party dress ...

I note that Hillary looks lovely in blue.

Contrast Australia, infant scheme .... about half way there as it was only set up in the 1990's has 133% of GDP in super savings.

Markets in the USA propped up by a tax holiday which must end and be reversed .... or forget about 100 million over 65 Americans by 2050 .....

Propped up by Tax theft via corporates based in the USA not paying tax anywhere and hoping for a tax amnesty so they can bring back the loot.

Third, is around risk .... and RIsk when your using zero percent is ... infinity ....

To see people buying and selling office blocks in the USA at 2% yield ... reminds me so much of Japan back in 1988-90 it makes me wonder if I was dreaming.

Our market .... its actually not bad value .... we have been smashed and continue to get smashed despite very stable banks still paying decent returns. Of course .... commodities on the nose ...

Then again, If China is going to build its office towers out of straw and not steel I missed it.
Oil .... in some ways use it or loose it with greenhouse issues. But the current prices ensure no new drilling to replace exhausted wells and yet again a boom bust cycle.

I do still however look upon the USA AND total lack or being prepared for a near tripling of over 65's and wonder how deep the hole will be in 2025. It will blow up totally by then, but in the meantime the unfunded contingent liabilities at over 100 trillion USD or 500% of GDP and here we are .... worried by 2055 we hit 100% and yep some little trimming to do ,,, but I suspect not as much as Hockey said as he missed the LNG income side and a few other things.

For now, happy happy happy .... either way. Great yields on some stocks, even bonds and nothing new there. In the USA ... people actually took CCC junk bonds down to HALF what the banks perpetual bonds were paying here. A bank going down here is possible but if it does, turn out the lights on most other things. So I think .... its got little chance. A CCC rated bond is on the cusp of going down the tubes ... but if your cash rate is zero, 3% can be made to look attractive even though its a dog doo doo dressed up as a princess.

Take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Mar 25 2015, 10:09 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

One thing I didn't explain as well as I would have liked ...

The USA despite cooking its economic numbers to hell ... removing around 10 million from being counted in the workforce ...
the fact remains clearly that there are MORE employed now than say 5 years ago.

I actually say SO WHAT .... not to be a USA basher or highly critical .... but for a good reason. Since the GFC around 30 million people out of a workforce of 155 million in 2015 have traded jobs earning around $25- and hour for ones near the $9- mark. New jobs created via the economy to cover the population growth in the USA ... which is about 2 million a year added to the workforce, again have fallen into these low paid jobs.

Overall it is without contest the AVERAGE wage has risen. This is despite about 33% of the workforce taking a severe pay cut and another 30 million Americans added to collecting food stamps. On the flip-side, the CEO's and executive teams have seen their pay packet rise by 70% since 2009. In a somewhat amazing full moon event ... despite even well run names nearly going broke in 2007-10, the reward of this ZERO interest rate policy has seen asset prices RISE an RISE to record levels. CEO's, Investment bankers, and all the very top end have greatly benefited from this and their incomes have skyrocketed.

Again the USA fed does not care, it hasn't even blinked. They cant ... sadly the orange haired albino cult running things .... DONT HAVE EYELIDS. Sadly they cant blink ... like snakes they are.

Why its pointless for me and for anyone .... these jobs created, all at the bottom end of the spectrum are basically SUBSISTENCE type jobs. A person earning the princely sum of $18,000- a year, $15,000- after Social Security and tax, so just under $300- a week has ZERO ability to save. Realistically cannot afford a car .... unless they bloody live in it ... and the thought of a $2,000- TV home cinema system is a dream. If they managed to save $20- a week on $290 a week I would be stunned ...

The consumer who existed on the $40,000- to $50,000- a year ... has gone. As more and more elderly reach age 65 and expect the $20,000- social security they expected ... which now is $15,000- and heading long term to $10,000- so too their incomes, SAVINGS for retirement more importantly evaporate and we have more added to the NON CONSUMER pile v say 1990 in the USA.

There of course will always be people earning less than others. IT is only correct, but the lower end of the USA has been going massively backwards since 1995 and lost about 30% of REAL income since then. So if you send 15% MORE to the low paid jobs, exactly what they have done ... and then they see the over 65's rising from 10% to 25% plus by 2040, of them 80% rely utterly upon the Social Security side, if you are slashing the REAL INFLATION adjusted income in half, a simple adding of 15% on the low paid jobs and 20% of the 25% over age 65 who have inadequate retirement savings, of in most cases for 15% of the 25% none at all .... add the two together .... 15% and rising and 20% ... I come up with 35% ..

If anyone does this, expecting GDP growth when the wealth is NOT widespread but more concentrated than ever in history .... its not possible. If you send another 35% of your total population into extreme poverty or subsistence .... expecting ANY growth ... even fudging the numbers to absurdity as the USA does, is a stupid hope.

This however is their policy. Slash Social Security benefits in real terms to $10,000- a year. The other, is very clear. The real Minimum wage in 1968 v 2015 is HALF what it was.

None of the candidates for the 2016 USA presidential election have any intention of doing anything about this. Already we have some religions nutter and Jeb Bush both talking about tax cuts. I suspect all others ... given they need about 3 billion in donations to get elected ... which the person on $8- an hour or even $9- cannot give them, the fate is actually sealed for the USA long term.

Like a frog, out in a jar, eventually the air runs out. Add more and more to the subculture of working poverty or retirement poverty and ... in the end ... not many consumers left.

With 1% of the USA currently in jail and about 30% either already working in poverty or heading for retirement poverty, the cost of jailing 1% costs about 3% if not 4-5% of production. I do actually fear the unrest will increase and when longer term this is the plan, impoverish more and more, how much does having 5% in jail cost ? is it 25% of GDP ?

Just a thought. Prior to that, the wheels fall off long before the bay boomers have all retired in 2029.

For now, its a perfect world. One of the riskiest stocks, Airlines another tragic crash overnight. Telecoms are just as volatile and we have a perfect world .... for now with their prices. They were hated yielding 10%, now at 5% ... everyone loves the and apparently no risk. Same might be said for banks.

But for now, the USA deputy weasel ... FIsher ... another Albino Red hair creep, one who funnily enough was Bernanke's Tutor for his PHD .... Fisher ... came out last night and like Yellen basically said zero forever but he went further talking about late 2015 for any rise.

These creeps are NOT economists, they believe that the FROG ... they have put in the jar will live. They deny its possibly to predict asset corrections ... or bubbles. If you were ever a student of these people ... use the word bubble in a paper you failed.

Meanwhile back at the camp, as I said ... in 2013 late 2013 on my exit if we made it to 2,140- on the S+P 500 it was like 1929. Well with a bit of growth and minus a few things, we are very close to the all time record and whilst many have like me thrown up their hands and exited, all of us with egg on our faces, for now, the fact that every ,measure of long term equity value, all 7 of them is at record levels never seen before apparently does not scare anyone.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Mar 22 2015, 01:36 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


on my comment on USA immigration ... this and birth rates are the only real factors in working out how many people as a percentage will be over age 65. Of course this takes in the life expectancy ...

USA and Australia and most other developed nations have very similar life expectancies .... yes different but not much.

My comment about USA immigration and was a comparison to Australia, nothing more ... nothing less. It was a comparison in terms of size .... if the USA net immigration as a percentage of its population is 33% of the Australian one any impact on the aging of the overall population and NUMBERS over age 65 as a percentage of the whole population is going to be worse.

Immigration with birth rates are the two key factors ... so if the USA birth rate is lower .... immigration rate far lower ... for me to accept even numbers the USA is producing for 2025 that their over 65 population is going to grow in percentage terms at HALF the rate of even Australia I know is crap.

I did of course go further and got the census numbers from the USA ... done each 10 years in April ... last one in 2010 ... and confirmed this.

All politically motivated ... well by greed for the USA. Once one goes into long term forecast in most cases its very much a very difficult number to come up with. Rubbish goes in ... rubbish comes out.

This is with MOST THINGS ... NOT REALLY WITH POPULATION GROWTH OR EVEN BUDGET ESTIMATES. Sure income may go up or down each year ... but the USA and these cretins now running the show in the background managed to underestimate the size of the deficit in a 4 year period by 6 trillion. The market and in fact the world is ignoring this for now.

Does it fill me with confidence their forward estimates when something which can be very accurately modeled like population numbers .. for the USA the more I look at them ... the further askew they go. In fact for income as I previously pointed out the 2040 estimate on population NOT by the CENSUS bureau in the USA ... but by Mr Lew and his utterly corrupt crowd at Treasury and social security has the USA population supposedly hitting 500 million in 2040 whne at the same time the CENSUS bureau has it at likely 384 million ....

I think even the 384 million number may be high by 5-10 million ...

But my point being 100 million baby boomer about to retire in the USA are being supported by a future estimate of some baby boom or immigration boom which will never occur. Immigration needs to go up 5 FOLD and baby births rise 45% .... when both hit 50 year lows ... NET migration as a percentage of the overall USA population and baby births ... both hit these lows in 2014.

I know not many care ... or should care about the internal crap in the USA ... it will however have the USA debt to GDP hitting well over 200% in 15 years. The forward estimates are a fantasy ... I know it ... they know it ... but rich people in the USA and their lobby groups ... or bribed politicians and bureaucrats ... or the same in after public service jobs for millions ... again bribes don't care.

Eventually the other shoe will drop. USA needs to collect 10% MORE of GDP in tax. The days of Apple stealing globally and then repatriating it to the USA ... soon will end. No nation with 25% over 65 population v 10% in 1980 can afford to have 3% of GDP stolen from them ....

I have no idea when someone in the USA does an actual budget and ACTUAL real outlook ... but if you are using a population say in 2040 of 500 million instead of one that will almost without a doubt in the 365-385 million range ... sure you can estimate your costs if you input them correctly ... which the USA of course isn't ... and doing this by lowering the burden on the people still working by inflation income and working population by what are seriously criminal amounts.

If in 1920 there were 8 people working for every single person retired, this number post 1980 went to 6 and then 4 and will go near 2 ... placing incredible pressure on the government collecting taxes ... this is what the EU has been going through, The USA in its wisdom and corruption has the actual burden on the taxpayers not falling at all in their future estimates ... an absurdity. For now the correct amount of tax being collected is falling out of bed in the USA compared to say corporate profits is HALF what it was in 2000 !!

Eventually it will of course come home to roost.

For now .... the ZERO interest rates rule everything ... all asset values.

If you put your head in a plastic bag and keep it there ... one knows what will occur.

If you lower the cash rate, and influence the bond rate to levels that historically since the dawn of time are 3% below normal levels .... asset prices, risk and everything will of course react.

If your buying a business and one does a NPV ... Net present value on future earnings ... if one uses say a 10% NPV rate, income correctly beyond 20 years is zero value. If one uses a ZERO rate ... the income estimate from 200 years out is fully counted.

Of course no one is stupid enough to use a ZERO rate ... but instead of the 8-10% NPV demanded in the 1900-2007 period and even prior to that ... its fallen to 5-7% and even lower in some cases. As though risk does NOT exist. Its of course there ... but with ability to borrow at 2-3% ... in some cases assets are being traded at 4% ... well below the natural risk rate of any venture.

Things are changing and clearly so ... EU bonds are in favor as they are not full of BS on their forward estimates. Germany can borrow for a fraction of the USA, so too most EU nations and even Italy and Spain with massive issues can do the same.

Our fumbling treasure and Hockey talking about the future and these issues ... in some ways is correct. In many others with 200 billion NET debt to GDP now .... so under 20% of GDP of the nation v USA at 105% and most EU members at 105% I am not panicking as such.

ALl EU nations have realistic forward population and aging of the population estimates. The USA as a contrast has LESS than 1 years money in its superannuation scheme ... Social Security ... when all the baby boomers are finished retiring. Instead of having 300 % of GDP 55-60 trillion, it has 2 trillion saved and denying its any issue for the future is where we are. The utterly inept and corrupt US fed board and the Treasury office headed by another paid for idiot ... CBO office same ... Commerce the same in the USA ... its not going to change.

US elections coming up and that another Bush is on the agenda is a joke, Not a funny one.

Sadly the musical chairs game is on again, all chairs already removed .... again ... this one may take a few years to play out as they are pulling rabbits out of their hat .... what is not in doubt is that if the USA was paying 3% more for its debt than it is now ... the deficit would be 3% higher each year. Thats just going back to normal levels.

I am sure their will that tax amnesty for USA companies that paid zero tax overseas .... not just apple and ... for one year another 100 billion or so of income may convince some mind dead idiot all is well .... sadly ... and this is the issue for the next 15 years and will hit the USA ... and by default global asset prices. Right now priced for perfection with little or no risk ... yet the risk is actually greater than in any time in living memory and that's saying a lot.

This is the only period where a species has been able to increase life expectancy from 50 years to 85 ... about a 70% increase.

Some nations saved for this event ..... some not so well. This is what the EU ongoing crisis was all about, not much else. Too generous benefits and not realistic forward estimates. It was taken to task on this ....

I hate to say I have seen ZERO out of the USA on this as time ticks on .... we are 7 year latter in fact 9 years since I wrote about this the first time and is there MORE put aside in their pension scheme ? NO there is less ... one went broke the disability one and they decided to borrow ... or steal from the other .... the old age one.

This is not even really a topic of conversation in the USA. Nothing like a muzzled media.

Sadly its too late to do much other than watch the legs fall off. With 25% of the workforce trading $50,000- job for a $20,000- a year one is factual. With now 48 million on food stamps and 45 million over the age of 65 .... rising to about 100 million it a race to see who blinks first.

With 3 million incarcerated in jail in the USA ... I do wonder the 90 million now working for around that $20,000 a year mark pre tax ... and having 70 million over age 65 NOT working or able to work and the plans to slash the Social Security benefits in real terms to about $10,000- a year from what was in real terms in 1995 $20,000- how many new jails they will need.

Its so sad. My ability to do anything than observe it and lament what these utterly corrupt people have done is all I can do other than protect my own assets and my families with the awareness of what is going to slowly unravel.

I believe any good actuary can estimate the population of the USA likely in 2040. They also can estimate the numbers of those over age 65. Of course, those now in power ... Yellen say at 68 will be gone as too will most of the rest and forgotten. Meanwhile someone aged 40 working hard in the USA ... I do wonder.

Anyhow do what you will. Its not USA bashing .... its a profound sadness I feel about the almost 100% assured outcome.

Take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Mar 20 2015, 07:40 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


on a company level APPLE Australia sold 6.4 billion here in 2014. According to head office .... their own annual report their margin on sales was 26.4% ... since Apple sells its goods in Australia at a price 112% of the exepnsive EU levels ... APPLE essentially made in Austrlaia a sales margin after costs of over 35%.

Meanwhile in 2014 APPLE Australia on these sales ... and yes I have taken out GST ... made over 2.2 billion and at 30% company tax rate paid $42.8 million in tax here NOT ...... 660 million as it should have.

I am not an American hater ... I lived there a long time and consider some of my dearest and closest Americans.

To have you ... twist ,,,, a view ... Onya

My issue so even the mind blind can understand.

I earn $17,000- a year ... essentially 100% of that is needed to survive.

I wish to borrow $105,000- on this income. I must note I intend to send my kids to college and for the next 16 years and rest of my life I will still earn $17,000- but will increase my spending each year above my income to $34,000-.

I wish to increase my debt over time and take the loan as it will stand in 2015 from $105,000- to $250,000 by 2030.

The USA collects 17% of GDP federally in tax.

It spends 20% of GDP right now and it is only low with interest rates at zero .... and I am paying not CPI inflation plus 2% as I did for most of the last 100 years, in 2015 I am paying CPI MINUS 1% ... in effect its actually about 0.86% in 2015.

This spending as more and more demand pensions from social security, which has ZERO assets .... or close to it ... the health care costs are actually DOUBLE this I have promised to the elderly and I have ZERO set aside for that as well.

If it was someone going to a bank, the USA would be sent packing. In fact they would be laughed at.

Sadly a corrupt group of self interest people have total control of the situation. they deny there is any problem and in fact deny that even the USA like every one of all 180 plus nations will see the over 65 percentage DOUBLE over the next 15 years.

Of course its not one group in control ... but several. Corrupt totally paid for bureaucracy ... media which does not challenge the system or the facts, the fact that one must have orange hair and be albino to serve in the USA bureaucracy is a joke. There is a tiny subset of the population .... 1.5% of them that hold all positions at the US fed, Both head and deputies at commerce and treasury ... both orange hair and albino ..... budget heads ... all albino ....

we have in total 60 heads of commerce in the USA from this little club. But sush its a secret.

I am talking about TRILLIONS .... minimum 5 times the GFC impact and cost that is being swept under the carpet. As the EU struggles to take care of the elderly .... the USA ... does nothing. Sadly when you have either corporations or the very rich and their own self interest groups who wish to pay no tax running things .... like ROME the praetorian guard running the show ... eventually the wheels fall off.

If your debt is 105% of GDP and you are running a deficit and one that will increase over time without radical tax change as the USA is .... and your TOTAL income including social security is 17% of GDP ... the deficit despite the absurd forward estimates by the red haired albinos of a rosy future ... the fact is they in 2010 missed the 2015 deficit size by 6 TRILLION dollars.

I agree the USA based companies are cash cows .... when APPLE is able to steal 700 million from a small nation in unpaid taxes in a single year ... as it did in 2014 ... it did the same to 30 EU nations and also Japan .... the unpaid tax which is what this cash lying around actually is amounted to something over 10 billion from one company in a single year. Apple cannot take the cash back to the USA for now as it would incur 35% tax minus the 1.66% tax they paid us, but APPLE and these clowns are buying congress with bribes in the USA to get a tax holiday like George W gave them in 2005 and I suspect the number will be around 12% they are allowed to bring the cash back into the USA .... paying 12% v 30-35% is what its about for the companies.

In the end .... its not going to make a bit off difference .... not to the bottom line. It may for one single year make the USA budget look ok, but its a one off trick. If they get say 100 billion MORE in tax off the flood of companies repatriating their stolen money globally to the USA ....

It doesn't matter. Simply put the promises healthcare wise I suspect will rise by around 3 trillion in 2015 ... Social Security money owed in real terms by 1 trillion, so getting 100 billion more in tax is ..... what it is .... a joke. One is 40 times the other.

But for now .... sing after me .... ZERO forever .... not really but same as January 2014 .... Janet showed her spots then and whilst YES the USA may raise in 2015 .... the rise will be glacial. The fact that for say 30 year debt .... even to a great borrower cost CPI plus 2% so around 4% .... now in 2015 lets lend at a rate that is about the same as CPI for some nations.

There is as always an inherit risk ..... RISK like it or love it ... but not respecting or understanding it and NOT demanding to be paid to take on risk is like an insurer knowing the Titanic will sink and only charging a token price for full cover on everything.

It is not hard to see where this end. In the meantime ... yes the USA may still rise .. amazing things the promise of a tax holiday ... zero rates and totally ignoring a debt that is 105% of GDP and assured to grow.

Time will see if USA is treated like Mexico or Argentina was when they lost the ability to fund their debt.

take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Mar 20 2015, 12:38 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Hi Wren,

I do not disagree. I do however humbly remain of the opinion like Greece, Like Argentina , USA eventually will be faced with default on their bonds.

Confronting, but when your central government promises exactly the same benefits in terms of cost as say the UK in terms of pensions, Disability cover, Medicare and Medicaid , and as say most EU nations ... the EU nations overall have tax at 40% of GDP overall as does Australia as do most other nations, to be blunt a nation can promise to do these things ... but bottom line when a nation only collects 27% of GDP in taxes v 40% ... for every one of 50 other developed nations .... 32 EU ones .... plus the rest ... it is INSULTING that these orange haired albinos ... pets of Goldmans or lidless eyed billionaire estimate there will NOT be any issue in the future is actually insulting.

Even more insulting is to have the IMF, World bank and basically the whole of the USA political system ignore this. Totally ignore it .... and when it explodes as it 100% is assured to do ... they will claim its some black swan event.

the debate in Australia is about playing with the fringes .... tweaking it from spending v likely spending needs changing tax collection from say 39% to 40% of GDP if one includes the fringe stuff and changing say spending from 40% to 39%.

The USA ... is actually delusional and ... the GAP between what is reality ... a real thing and what their forward budgets represent is so absurd, so stupid it is the greatest swindle ever. Instead of RAISING tax collections as the baby boomers retire post 2012, the USA CUT tax collection and wonders why there is a gaping hole.

It seems impossible they will ever spit USA bonds ever, and yes they have had a great run. About 18 months ago ... I was giving predictions about bonds and one thing I pointed out was SPAIN and ITALY collected 40% plus of GDP in tax and as such it was idiotic in the extreme to have those bonds trading at a PREMIUM and YIELD 3% above the USA. The biggest story despite the USA jumping up and down over the last 18 months has been the fact that both SPAIN and ITALY in 2015 can borrow for LESS than the USA.

Sometimes bond markets get it horribly and totally wrong.

Simple put, USA federally collects a mere 17% of GDP in tax .... that includes social Security ..... it has NO savings in disability insurance, that's broke, it has nearly none in social security .... and its medicare and medicaid promises for an aging population are truly scary. Its in total denial there is any issue.

I understand Wren your a yank, but when your have the ex head of your central bank openly taking what I would call questionable payments ... its time to wake up. When you have the head of say the CBO budget office who prior to being anointed by Goldman Sachs to run the head of the budget office spent 2 years at Goldman's propaganda unit ... Brookings institute .... an institute that is basically there to promote Goldmans goals of NO TAX and stuff everyone else .... Oh and Bernanke that weasel now works there for 4 times what he was paid at the US fed ....

So yep you can sing the stars and stripes till your eyes bleed. You can stay long US bonds, yep they have done well ... nothing like ZERO cash forever ... Yellen makes any DOVE on interest rates look stupid ... she again hand selected by the owners of the USA Fed ... Goldman Sachs ... so too her deputy Fisher ... and in 2015 .... there was another Fisher on the Fed last year ... one of the few calling for rates to rise ... he and any other person of that view was replaced.

Of course .... BONDS will go up .... if you are told you can borrow for the next 12 months at ZERO and if you buy a USA bond for 3% you actually get a positive cash and carry of 3% and the NATURAL direction on the bonds therefore will be DOWN in yield.

Strangely for 3,000 years and the history of money till these corrupt idiots got into the US fed, there is and was a law. A law about money and that is to NEVER ever lend money below inflation. Here we have state sponsored ... or the FOX running the chicken house in this case the USA despite virtually every asset class at all time highs ... Bonds , Real Estate, Commercial Property .... Shares ... all of them at 1929 peaks ... not a word about any asset bubble.

I find this somewhat amazing.

If in 1930 I spoke with passion about man going to the moon within 40 years, I would have been locked up.

For the history of say the OIL market pre 2005 for 40 years the forward prices without exception had been in discount to the spot price, to speak about this evaporating was absurd. To speak of $100- oil prices again absurd.

I suppose for now, the US bond marekt and my own view the USA deficit reaches 200% of GDP by the post 2025 period seems absurd. Sadly the time to do something about it passed in 2010 ... the unfunded contingent promises of the USA to its people is just over 120 trillion in 2015 dollars. Thats 500% of GDP. Since npothing is going to change, me stating the obvious that by 2025 the Debt to GDP ratio of the USA will go from the Current 105% of GDP to 200% is actually even stating a fact.

TZo think the rest of the world, on a diet of fiscal restraint ... with the EU reducing DEBT to GDP as time goes on will stop and watch the USA basically double is DEBT to GDP ration and then double it again without reacting .... is what the market is saying long term.

Do I care the US dollar is going up ? Never underestimate stupidity. In 2000 was it the AUD/USd at 48 cents ? What did we hit post GFC ? was it 110 cents to the US dollar. So ring a ring a rosy .... we are being hit by the RBA lowering rates and to be blunt ... two commodities at levels that assure eventually a massive global shortage. If you have say oil at $45- which is HALF the cost of the more expensive tar sands cost of supply, well below the OIL Shale fracking cost of $75 a barrel and well below a $60- cost of offshore oil platform ....

In 3-4 years, eventually a lot of wells will run dry. The tar sands people will go broke and remove supply, frackers will go into bankruptcy .... and NO new production will come on line. Likely demand will remain about the same but as well after well runs dry ... no new wells drilled the supply demand equation will tip and tip ... like it did in 2004 ... with a violence

but for now ... keep buying USA bonds .... their birth rate hit 40 year lows in 2014 as did immigration .... and despite this their apparently is no burden of the elderly on budgets looking forward. Cost V GDP does not change for the next 10 years according to them despite 100 million baby boomers retiring by 2030. That by the way is 30% of the whole population. Amazingly the numbers of those over age 65 in the USA, now at near 15% never rises above 18.6% EVER according to them.

I wish them good luck
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Mar 20 2015, 10:48 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


been watching.

Like most ... like many a lot smarter than I ... we watch and scratch our heads.

Time is always kind to those who are patient and for me ... my mistake ... was actually believing Yellen 2 years ago when she said she would raise interest rate. Yes thats 2 years ago she said ... almost verbatim ... when US Unemployment reaches 6.5% we will begin to raise rates.

Now wind forward 2 years ... she said the exact opposite I kid you not. USA unemployment at the time of Yellens comment was 7.4%, back in 2012. Well aware exactly how the USA was producing its numbers I was of the view that in 2013 USA unemployment not only fell below 6.5% but towards 6% ... exactly what it did.

The excuse for the delay in 2014, is because she is worried about the employment market .... but the unemployment rate in 2015 is at 5.5% ... basically near full employment.

As I said early 2014 when i was clear the USA would not raise rates .... its zero forever.

Not really ... of course at some stage the USA will raise rates. It is a given .... but make NO MISTAKE ... the rise will be very SLOW and very gradual. A lot of reasons for this. US fed holding 4 trillion in bonds is part of it ..... USA Treasury debt hit 18.4 trillion and no one even cares. Each 1% more cost to fund this ... adds 1% to the DEBT and the DEFICIT.

FOr now there is NO real reason to sell. Then again there is EVERY reason to sell. Around 2180, which is not too far from recent highs in the USA S&P 500, its actually at a level that is the peak in the 1929-30 madness. I kid you not. Japan had a similar stupid peak in 1990 and didn't bottom till over 20 years latter at less than 20% of the peak. China pre GFC I was laughing about their index up near 6,000 ... the low ? What was the low ? 1,200 ? about 80% loss.

I took some time to explain how this has been constructed ... this bubble in the USA. All driven by bribes , self interest and greed. When you have the head of the USA Fed who was a room mate of the head of the largest investment bank, Goldman Sachs .... yep room mates or dorm mates at Harvard ... and now he resides at a PRO Goldman think tank on a wage 4 times what he got in the Fed you can see my own skepticism of what is going on. Yellen is no different ... her husband ... despite being senile has a similar job at another Goldman funded think tank at a university.

All of this aside other than to know the heads of budget offices in the USA all share similar links via both having orange hair and being albino ... and interlinked with an utter contempt for people not in the group.

Its sad.

Bottom line it will burst ... as Japan burst .... as the Uranium bubble burst .... as China Burst ... as the Philippine stocks did the same and ... these mealy mouthed totally currupt USA bureaucrats will try and blame someone else ... and then shuffle the chairs and promote each other. Fisher ... the deputy head of the Fed has been lurking around for 20 years and Yellen close to 30.

For me, an amusing and very sad contrast. Demographics, something I went into in great detail about. It seems NOW a massive topic for the current goverment in Australia. I do agree its an issue but not a huge one. Reason being thee normal average working person who has what is likely to be 12% of their salary put away ... by age 65 even the AVERAGE one will be $200,000- in real terms ...

Bottom line we live far longer and instead of 8 people working to support those over age 65 ... this will fall to 2 for some nations. The percentage of those over age 65 will go from 10% to 25% PLUS in most nations ....

USA is in denial on this topic. Only 2 things alter these numbers and they are baby births and immigration. USA has LOWER baby birth rates than Australia and LOWER immigration than Australia on a per capita basis. In fact the immigration side which is crucial to keep the average age DOWN is around 30% of Australia. Despite this, these Orange haired Alibino's, a crony club in the USA working for the utterly corrupt rich who wish to pay no tax, actually deny the USA will have its over 65's ever rise.

This is an insult to every idiot who owns a USA treasury bond. The same to any idiot who is long US dollars. USA claims despite this that its over 65 population will never rise above 23% even in 2060. Meanwhile the USA disability pension fund went broke 23 years early from the 2006 estimate ... instead of having $200,000- PLUS in real terms 2015 dollars for the 100 million baby boomers in Social Security for their retirement ... that's about 200 trillion ... its all gone. Spent .... and the forward estimate despite needing to pay some pension to these people is that in the USA some plague hits and they don't live to age 85 .... but mostly pass away at age 70.

This is the slow ticking time bomb in the background ... that of cou8rse no one cares about. For now.

Its funny for me to see people buying assets in the USA ... property at 2% yields in the belief that they can improve occupancy and maybe get a 4% yield. Sadly ... this is what ZERO rates do to perception. There is RISK in everything, but for now its been priced out and priced to absurdity ... very much TULIP time in the world. I do understand that APPLE is able to pay zero tax here STEAL close to 1 billion a year in tax from Australia and stash it in the Irish tax haven and the government lacks the balls to take this and many other clowns on. Its clear the USA will provide an amnesty to these companies and they can bring the stolen money back at a massive discount tax rate. Likely 12% , v our tax rate at 30% and the USA's own corporate tax rate at 35% ....

Insanity ... which as the pressure on government doubles with twice as many elderly than say 1990 ... this cant go on the theft of 2-3% of GDP from every nation besides the USA from the likes of Apple and Google and GE and every other one of them.

In the end, I have no idea the catalyst of the correction but myself and several other massive fund managers are of the same opinion that we are more than likely to see a correction in coming years of a greater magnitude than the GFC which was a 50% correction.

Only time will tell and happy to be doing other stuff ....

I suppose I look at some sectors which I hate most of the time .... Airlines, Telco's and Technology. In many ways very tough business's and Qantas not so long ago over $8- ... before going to hell ... Telstra in 2000 I sold from memory at $9.40 or $9.60 and didn't like it till sub $3.30 ... and when that idiot Costello and the future fund exited at $2.60 it was a gift. A idiot giving away a fully franked 28 cent dividend ... 10% ... with franking credits ... 14% ...

Now ... $6.50 .... its over DOUBLE the lows. Whilst it appears a good deal for those chasing yield or income in this low interest rate market .... RISK ... Underlying risk is always there. In total dot com madness TLS got near $10 .... and lost 75%. The $10- high was a 1929 event ... 1990 at 40,000 in the Nikkei for Japan or 6,000- on the Chinese index Pre GFC ....

Its hard ever to see any correction when its at its peak. When say PDN and the Uranium minnows were priced 100 times where they are now .... it was impossible for anyone to ever conceive that it was a ponzi scheme ....

In the end, the very end of this .... which for the USA may be 2020 ... the numbers of the baby boomers is KNOWN and a fact. Their demand and needs to survive are known ... so too the healthcare costs. As much as in Australia ... the Liberals YES do have a point about changing the system .... we are talking about tweaking it 5% .... TWEAKING 5% here and there. The USA is in an utter state of total and complete denial.

Nothing speaks louder than bribes. The utterly corrupt and I say this with contempt for the USA both politicians and bureaucrats, they sadly will bring about another great depression, or at best massive upheaval. So far they have about 1% in jail .... 3% with records of incarceration. Walmart, Target meanwhile raised their minimum wage ton $9- an hour.

If you believe ... working casual ... NO loading please ... we are from the USA ... so $360- a week pre Tax PRE Social Security ..... thats for a 40 hour week which you get 1 weeks paid holiday a year ... post tax and social security you get $323.40 ...

Can you pay the $1,200 rent for your family a month even with 2 working ? Can you afford a car ?

The great Employment surge in the USA is a mixture of NOT counting 9 million people who after 6 months unemployment benefits stop getting them ... and people being laid off from decent jobs say in the $20- plus an hour range to be employed at McDonalds as a slave on $323.40 a week. With no saving for the elderly ... and them about to hit 25% plus in coming years ... not 18% as the USA claims out to 2045 .... and an increased amount on slave wages .... who will be the USA consumer.

Eventually ... Bill Bob ... who served in Vietnam ... and Sally Mae his wife working both of them for minimum wage for 40 years, when they work out between them instead of being paid $30,000- or so a year its going to be $20,000- ... the sad fact is that both of them having worked alread very hard in manual jobs for 40 years have no ability to work .... beyond age 65. So too many others, but without debate ... or discussion the Orange haired Albino's in the USA have Not told Billy Bob or Sallie Mae their working life of misery is to be followed by old age in abject poverty. Nothing like pissing off the masses.

This I contrast with people in Australia squealing about possible changes to super and retirement ages. In the USA, with a BIGGER problem due to ZERO super savings in the Social Security pot v ours which will be 300% of GDP when its fully mature ... the USA is either correct and we are stupid along with 30 EU nations, Japan and many many others. Who is right ? Will we live till age 85 if we hit age 65 ? Is it possible that life expectancy even increases over the next 30 years ?

USA very clearly has it DECREASING in their budget estimates ... all so Goldman Sachs can pay no tax and their cretins buy a new red Ferrari each year. So Ben Bernanke can take his bribes .... speak to rooms for 30 minutes for 50% of his salary for a year as the head of the USA Fed. Seriously there is NOTHING that person could say worth that.

It is a a question of who, or whom you believe ?

Whilst I NEVER try and under estimate stupidity, In some cases you must. Its only prudent. If s0omething has already gone over the cliff, and whilts you know with 100% certainty it will be taken by the force of gravity eventually, if its being propped up, for now by hot air and in fact, despite going over the fiscal cliff the bloody train is rising, its just going to make the eventual fall even more spectacular.

When ? I don't KNOW ... and in the future the interest side will be the catalyst. Eventually the EU may grow some balls and demand the stolen tax as we should and APPLES real profit will halve. Eventually the EU and Australia will send the IMF and WORLD bank packing and tell them to treat the USA the same as US. Imagine the IMF lecturing Australia with NET 15% debt to GDP and ignoring the USA with a Debt to GDP of 105% and rising. Imagining ignoring the Forward estimates of the USA budget wise are FICTIONS and in fact 2010 estimates fell 5 trillion SHORT of the AMOUNT of debt they now have .... YES forward estiamtes are diffcult ... but since 2011 and 2012 budgets were already approived at that time ... how the hell can the deficit be 30% of GDP over 5 years an no one blink ?

Obama, Bernanke, Yellen, Fisher, Greenspan, ELMENDORF and a long list of similar orange haired cretins from ivy league schools and direct connections to the money pot .... and on the take ... of course no one notices the USA deficit at 18 trillion instead of the 2010 estimate ... I just looked at the 2015 estimate and it was 12 trillion ..... so I was being nice. What happened did they miss 6.5 trillion ?

Meanwhile we have oil ... below the cost of any new supply ... half of current production is making it for a loss .... but the market of course marches on ... NO risk .... unless your the dummy who lent to Oil shale in the USA. Iron Ore ... BHP and RIO splash an oversupplied market with even more supply and cost themselves 50 billion at least as the price drops. For that number, these idiots could have bought their competitors ... PUT say FMG into mothballs and taken 150 million tons of supply out of the equation for about 10% at what its cost BHP and RIO ... let alone all the others in the market.

Predicting stupidity ..... is a loosing game .... actually calling the commodity price BELOW the marginal cost of production for about 50% of the market is ... impossible to do ... but nothing new. This claim by some it was easy to see ... defies common sense. Why the hell would a company be so stupid so as to cost itself $10 billion income a year ... because that's exactly what the BHP and RIO team did at 200 million tons of Iron Ore production and taking a mildly over supplied market and adding another 10% supply ? What happens. ....

Must run, just saw a dog chasing its tail .... it would be stupid for me to estimate when its going to stop .... but I know it eventually will. Patience is as always an advantage.

Timing on any correction ? No Idea. Maybe the pandemic the USA budget numbers have in them for their elderly will occur.

Oh and of course this is about the USA more than Australia. We however have been hit by massive moves in commodity prices for the bulk items. Long term ... they are FINITE and if BHPO wants to DUMP a finite resource onto an already oversupplied market along with RIO and Rhinehart .... I am of the actual opinion that they should be restrained .... but then again I have lots of silly ideas. In 100 years, when the current resources are gone .... people I am sure will look back.

Take Care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jan 2 2015, 08:25 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


well in the case of the USA the total removal of Term deposits and Bonds as a form of investment you get any return on is the main reason. I note Germany is also there and even negative NOW after 2014 rally in prices.

People are searching for income, YIELD in any form. They are happy to chase the USA stock market with an overall yield below 2% because they get zero for cash and going into say a bond fund ,,, the returns are under 1.5%.

RISK is based upon yield. The masters of the USA have deemed there is NO RISK, none whatsoever and it saw for example JUnk Bonds fall to levels never seen before, NEVER not in 3,000 years. Sadly they forgot the margin say in 2009 for junk was 10% plus at one stage NOT 2% .... over time its been 5-6%. With the collapse of the oil price and a lot of junk bonds issued in the oil shale side, a lot of these bonds are NOW trading not at 2% over US treasuries where these wombats purchased them but in some cases 10% over it so they have lost half their money on paper. Of course it depends ojn how long oil stays here, which seems like a year or so ... by then the less well funded ones producing at a LOSS with oil below $65= their break even if not $70- some will topple and 50% now will be better than 20% when they go chapter 11 or 9. ... Bankrupt.

Australia, yes we are chasing yield. Still ... banks one could not give them away in 2010 or 2011, let alone 2009 when the GFC was in full swing. ANZ for example was at stages around 10% yield, TLS over 10% ... a lot like the infrastructure ones, even well run ones were at stupid levels, APA the pipeline one, well funded even back then ... 10% plus, its grown since then but share price tripled.

Bottom line, some think markets are correct all the time ... Yellen and Co and argue bubbles cannot be seen, stupidity cannot be seen and even if they acted it would not work. This flies in the face of the last 100 years active monetary policy by 100 central banks around the globe.

Our market, yes whilst a term deposit is paying 2.5% for cash 3% for say 6 months, and 4% the longer out you go, this correctly shows both RISK and inflation and PAYS you for lending longer. This is how the world is meant to work.

As for shares, they are FAR more risky than government bonds which I have used for the above, as such the YIELD should be higher to account for RISK. Companies go up ... and they go down, they sometimes lie and so on. Hence the yield or the perception of how risky that long term yield is places a much higher yield demanded by government bonds. So a bank .... whilst the yield now is 5% its above say a 10 year bonds but not by much.

What is at issue for me, in particular with the USA, is if inflation is 1.5% , GDP growth is 5% as they claim, and unemployment down at say 5.5% why the hell is CASH not at least at inflation or say the 100 year average of inflation plus 1.24% ?

In a nutshell, its screwed everyone's perception of what is good and what is bad. Whats fair ... and what is NOT. It is financial engerneering on an economy wide scale. All for the benifit of the rich or CEO's of companies or investment bankers who can sell crappy assets at a yield of 2% instead of one at 8% about 25% of the price.

People, investors ... are now being given that choice and have been done so since 2008 in the USA. Some bailed in 2009 and did not enter .... only NOW to enter when the market is 3 times the 2009 lows and think all is safe and are sick of sitting on cash and in reality going backwards v inflation.

The killer in all this, with the USA, most things are priced off yield, from risk, to return on assets to NPV of cash-flows. NPV or nett present value of future cash-flows is a killer. Everything has risk .... EVERYTHING even government bonds. Think of Greece !! Or Brazil or Argentina ... but for every asset from a roadway to an office building to a company that makes widgets. How about if you are able to get control of interest rates, taxes and the whole system. If you own something say a commercial property even at 4% cash rates the normal demanded pre 2000 was a 10% yeild for that asset. Now in post 2007 theory, the previous 1,000 years was wrong and an asset, with risk is now deemed to be a great deal at 4% and even 3%. So its worth even adjusted for inflation as the YIELD is reflecting the INCOME or rent which is adjusted for CPI ... the value NOW post 2000 for the USA is 2,3,4 times what it was worth for the preceeding 100 years. That premium for RISK ... which I might add protects against RISK and STUPIDITY has now been replaced by a financially engineered pricing system.

Same goees for most asset classes over there. IN Australia for example yeilds on similar things, 6% sort of range above both long bonds and inflaion. Its more typical for the USA side right now to be about HALF ours. Its missing the inflation plus margin over it that the USA fed has removed on instructions from head office at Goldman Sachs.

Companies, same thing, cheap borrowing post GFC they issued billions of shares in the GFC at bargin prices and NOW at 3 times the level are borrowing and buying them back for 3 times the price. The EPS in the USA appears to be rising, and I suppose it is but if you removed the buybacks ... its gorowth would halve. On that I must mention the USA freindly Fed basically gave the banks a winfall profit on their bond positions and HALVED the yield when they announced QE1,2,3,4 and so on. Repaired the banks balance sheets in a single move ,,, but the US Fed is holding now near 4 trillion in bonds at woeful rates. Then again, they keep it zero forever they make money the US fed that is. Then again its not going to go on forever ..... its like holding your breath for as long as you can ... eventually you pass out.

have fun
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Dec 31 2014, 03:07 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Ho Ho Hum...

Merry Christmas to all. Hope you had a great one and Santa was good ??

Happy new year as well.

The beat goes ON ... and ON.

Zero forever. Its the theme and whilst there may be SOME cosmetic change out of the USA the underlying economy is disturbing as hell. Numbers, as usual total rubbish. What was that GDP number ? Over 5% and even staid commentators were scratching their heads.

To point out the bloody obvious, Oil is below $60- a barrel. A lot of the GDP growth last few years has actually been from Oil Shale in the USA. Its basically taken it in the neck, with a BREAK EVEN cost of production of $65= they are all operating at a loss !! All of them. Far different to the over $100- level not so long ago. THIS HAS YET to be seen in the GDP numbers, a halving of the value of the NEW oil production. As per normal they are using totally bogus numbers ... and since its prepared at the BEA now run by Yellens personal Economist from the US Fed in San Fran when she was there now running the BEA ... don't expect any reality to ever emerge.

If asset price rises equation to growth ... fine ... the US stock market has risen 30% last year and 10% this year. No bubbles in sight .... must get my eyes checked :-))

As I type USA debt over 18 trillion, the Disability pension scheme totally broke and by 2030 will have another 20 million over 65's on disability as opposed to social security and with healthcare for disabled at DOUBLE even the over 65 numbers, time will slowly griund the fiscal side to paste.

Then again no one cares. EU sorts it all out ... USA ignores it.

EU with bond rates crashing there, as expected, the Fiscal pressure on many governments willl ease by a LOT. When Italy and Spain can borrow for LESS than the USA as NOW is the case, the bond market has NOT totally lost the plot.

Expect EU companies especially those domiciled in Spain and Italy to benefit in the next 12 months being able to NOW in late 2014 borrow for 3-4% less than they could in 2012. It is massive.

Obama ... ignore him. Jed or is it Jeb Bush throwing his hat in the ring .... HIDE .... the longer term fiscal outlook for the USA is diabolical in the extreme. The estimates ... all budget offices inhabited by cretins in the USA, all Goldman Sachs hand picked .... all have orange hair and albino eyes and all come from the same economic club that gave us the 2000 fiasco ... the GFC and the S+L crisis prior to that.

Simple stuff, if you have promised free healthcare for over 65's at a cost of about $17,000 a year, have to pay pensions at $15,000- a year .. and then have 100 million over 65's by 2040 .... the cost each year is in real terms 3.2 trillion. thats 100% of all tax collected NOW.

Instead of having 50 trillion in Social Security for this event ... in savings, there is 2 trillion and falling ...

Corporates in the USA avoid tax ... and the tax paid is 17% on profits vs 27% in 2000. This number is falling and falling rapidly.
The rich who should pay 39.2% overall in tax and Medicare, the top 10% pay at 19% down from 29% in 2000.

The progressive nature of the tax system is gone. Someone on $100,000- is likely paying 30% tax and Buffett in 2014 paid 17.8% tax. He of course would be stupid to pay any more tax than he should, but the system is utterly corrupt with bogus forward estimates based on total BS.

Timing ? Its still peculating along. Everyone turning a blind eye to it. Media is paid by ? Advertising .... Buerocrat in the USA make the $3,000- bottle of wine the NSW premier resigned over look like a joke. Bernanke at the Brookings institute funded by Goldman Sachs and his ex roommate from Harvard .... Finkle stein has him on a million dollars for life and in 2014 he earn t over $4 million on speaking tours ... at $240,000- for an hour. Yellen ... her husband same sort of job ... other side of the nation. As I said a little club with Orange Hair, chant at the moon, believe the earth is flat and we ... non members of the club are stupid.

Sad but eventually ... no matter what the fiscal numbers get worse and worse for the USA.

As to job gains over there, its amazing ... jobs being shed in the $50,000- range replaced with new ones .... Under $30,000- a year ones and the 53.3% the year started with that's 53.3% of ALL full time USA employees earning UNDER $30,000- and the avergae of them is actually $20,700 what they earn t ... minus 6.4% Social Security Minus tax at 15% minus 2.9% for medicare ... that leaves them with under $300- a week for a 38 hour week. Anyhow, what is amazing is the GROWTH in 2014 of these Low wage jobs. Maybe they should move to Mexico or China for a better standard of living ?

Enough on the USA. Spoke to the top LIC company in Australia chief .... as I always do. We both agree at some stage the wheels will fall off. Not sure when, but he like I see's something OVER the GFC in terms of correction for the USA. Thats over 50% and somewhere between 50 and 80% which was 1929.

Anyhow, since we like in most things are insulated in Australia and NZ ... we would need to be at 9,680 on the ASX 200 to be where the USA is now. In other words the close at 5,411 ... we need to RISE 79% to catch the stupidity of the US markets.

I am stunned ... it was BAD at 65% ... but nope lets go some more. USA has its interest rates despite this at ZERO. All so Goldman and CEO's can borrow and buy back the shares they issued in the GFC at 3 times the price and drive their EPS up.

USA if its has 5% GDP growth nearly double ours, an unemployment rate nearly 1% below ours ... running a deficit 150% the size of ours relative to GDP .... WHY ? Are they mad ? No just utterly corrupt.


Meanwhile our rates at 2.5% ... things slowing down and stuck here at 2.5% for what seems decades the bias is to lower the rates.
The RBA still wants the AUD lower, obviously Iron ore and Oil via the LNG projects coming on line impacted the currency but the very big LNG plants as yet to start exporting which will DOUBLE the size of LNG exported and as such I still find it hard to be too bearish. Of course, OPEC and oil below $60- a barrel is going to totally STOP any new wells being drilled. Exploration ZERO ... so what occurred in 2002 when demand exceeded supply will occur again ... may take a few years, but the LNG plant life and size is 20-40 years. Eventually wells dry up and need replacing, Demand whilst slow is growing at just under 1% and whilst some oversupply in 2014, eventually a few fields running dry and NOT replaced and hey presto we have another commodity cycle. Not now mind you .... lots of dead bodies out there in the Iron ore sector and oil. Think FMG is fine, its already done what it said it would and as such the unit cost of production is falling. High cost producers.... forget them ... they right now at these prices are worthless ... totally worthless.

Its like that thing ... Uranium and the utterly worthless PDN ... Palladin in 2000 ... as the price crept up and up the share suddenly became worth something. That the cost of NEW production was about 150% MORE than expected and the fact that the company was a great PR hub helped, but a price over $10- from 2 cents and then back again to ... 30 cents. Nice ride .... but this is the future. For now, oil ... iron ore ... ho hum but buy on dips for quality. I might add I no longer like BHP or RIO .... idiots adding 200 MT production to iron ore post 2013 when if they had done it in 2008 or even 2006 .... whilst Iron ore would have NOT risen as high the price received at say even $100 a ton v one much much lower, if your making $50- a ton or 100% OVER cost 0of production its a good thing.

On the USA side, Yellen I must say has stacked the voting members in 2015 for the US fed. All are DOVES. Expecting anything other than hot air out of this penguin about rates in 2015 is what I expect. The vocal Fisher, again Orange hair but at least vocal from the Dallas fed about raising rates and asset inflation and bubbles has been removed. This of course is not the other Orange haired albino Fisher ... Yellens deputy and Bernankes MIT professor when he got his PHD. Why did they give any of these clowns PHD's ? Anyhow all dissent on the USA Fed has been replaced with DOVES.

China still going. Doomsdayers as always. I don't agree with them mind you. Simple stuff, the Chinese economy is DOUBLE the size it was in 2006. So a GDP growth of 6% in 2015 is 12% in 2006. That said, they have played the commodity game well again as they did during the GFC. All buying of anything stopped. It is often forgotten the Chinese is a centrally run system and Communist. When the head honcho calls you and says stop buying .... or have a vacation in a prison camp and we will make you an organ donor ... buying tends to stop. In the GFC, as the US dollar initially crashed, oil spiked to $150 or close, up there my comment was things will implode. USA was clearly into the GFC already. So less than 6 months latter, the US dollar rallied as assets were taken back home and the oil price crashed as people ... in particular the Chinese were told to use stockpiles. OIl went near $30- and again same comment as today, down there NO new production would happen. Eventually as oil wells run out ... no replacements occur and demand keeps creeping up, the price bounced. Still think about the same. Oil really needs to be in the $100 sort of range plus or minus $20- so enjoy it down here for now. Sadly any new production is going to be either via deep offshore drilling, EXPENSIVE, or unconventional means and again EXPENSIVE, and if your absolute break even is $65 a barrel, ther ehas to be a good margin for PROFIT and RISK.

This I suppose is what is missing in the USA, UK and German markets. RISK. Apparently there is no risk. Here in say Australia we get 5% dividends franked as well. There is Still a risk premium in there. TLS the most hated stock of 2010-11 at $2.55 when that idiot Costello sold the Future funds shares .... at the lows .... 28 cents fully franked ... NBN deal a great one for them ... heads they win ... tails they win ... a fully franked dividend was over 10% ... or 14% if you took into account the franking. Of course , now in 2014 its DOUBLE the price and in the meantime ... got paid over $1- to hold a $3- share and got another 30 cents in franking credits !! Oh I love it.

Fiscally Australia not too worried. Sure the LNG price will be low initially, but unless people like the dark .... or we are not going to use energy it will over time recover. May be a few years mind you. Same for Iron ore .... unless China and eventually India decide they like building without steel.

I note the STUPIDITY of the government right now. Being blunt, Both parties did very well in the past 20 years. The GFC was not made here. We are one of the lowest Debt to GDP nations around. the NET debt is about 20% of GDP. USA at 110% and rising.

So what is this rush to balance the budget ? Idiotic in the extreme. If inflation is 2% and GDP growth is 2.5%, THE ECONOMY IN RAW TERMS .... in dollar terms rises by 4.5%. So to maintain 20% NET debt to GDP we could run a deficit of 4.5% each year !!

We are running one of 2.5% of GDP so in REAL and actual terms our DEBT to GDP ratio is FALLING. Not by much, but over 10 years its still falling. To balance the budget, which is one way to slow an economy which the USA and most of the world has forgotten ... your making the NET debt fall quicker say by about 5% a year. So the NET debt of 20% goes to 19% then 18,17,16 and so on.

Next time I hear someone comment about reducing the debt and so on, I will actually vomit ... whoops just did> I have no idea what this Liberal fixation is with it. I am NOT suggesting willy nilly spending as we saw post GFC ... but compared to most nations and despite some idiotic schemes ours was very restrained to say the least. Not perfect and very far from it.

Sadly right now virtualy every group I could name is annoyed with the current government. YES I want fiscal restraint, I dont want the debt size to get much larger unless we see a GFC or 1929 type event, but to immediately want it back to zero ? Over time it will get there anyhow !!!

I would very much prefer the governments focus to be on the likes of Apple which paid us 1.9% on profits and stole 700 million in tax on the 6 billion sales it had in 2014. Same too for the Swiss based miners, tell them all to get stuffed and the missing 1-1.5% of GDP stolen out of the government coffers amounts to 2 billion a year. Not massive, but much needed. EU I suspect acts in 2015 and eventually the USA is forced to face the fact its been stolen from itself with a corporate tax rate of 35% ... but no one pays it. The bankers have tax haven after tax haven and 3,000 offshore companies for one of the larger US banks in tax havens is a reality. Paying a mere 17% likely falling to 15% 3when the corporate tax rate is 35% is a joke. Then again it was and is state sponsored theft in the case of the multinationals like Apple ... the US law enables them to do anything they like and despite declaring a 25% margin on sales in 2013, and Australia paying 10% MORE for goods even allowing for GST, according to Apple on its 6 billion Australian sales it deemed it would pay 1.9% tax on it. NOt the 30%. I vote send them a tax bill with 100% penalties.

Same old same old.

For now, Obama in 2015 .... nothing changes. Yellen ... more hot air. Jack Lew USA treasury secretary and in charge of Social Security the lies he is going to have to tell ... get bigger and bigger ... but if you have Orange Hair and believe the world is flat and are Albino its all ok.

Predictions ? Ho hum ... made a few in there. EU numbers, which are close to reality improve in 2015 via much lower funding costs. Australia same old same old. We are slowing .... worried about the govt. Never seen a landslide election win reversed in one term but its looking like that. Commodities .... maybe even lower, but long term unless you like walking ... dont use electricity and build with straw eventually they rise over time, maybe not 2015. The Chinese have done it very well.

Other large population nations really struggling ... Brazil double whammy via iron ore and oil, Nigeria the same, Indonesia going backwards, India ... well I wish they could get their act going but as always a political nightmare and corruption even puts the USA to shame. In the USA congress votes 99% of the time based upon donations and the money and with the 2016 election looming dont expect anything there.

I was amazed to see the BLS which does the USA CPI numbers and after many hours digging according to them their housing index which makes up 23% of the CPI the fact that New York prices are the same as they were in 2004 astounds me. Same for San Fran. Both hit record highs 110% of even 2006 GFC peaks and DOUBLE the 2006 index numbers both for rent and cost of a house.

Meanwhile Walmart with 1.4 million USA employees on an average of $18,200- FULL TIME so take home is about $290- ? Anyhow Walmart is complaining about some states raising the minimum wage .... eve the one who raised it to $7.55 an hour !! Sadly if correctly adjusted for cost of living it should be $15- an hour. the normal floor person there gets SUB $8- an hour ... mangers a bit better at $10-. Kind of freaks me out McDonalds in the USA the pay is worse and in Australia or the EU the pay is roughly DOUBLE for the same work and same training and same sexy uniforms !!

Enough drivel from me .... with now over 2 trillion in super savings in Australia and a very young scheme of compulsory super v the USA which started in 1935 v 1995 for ours, eventually this number in Australia when its fully mature will have about 300% of GDP in it ... basically what the USA is missing . USA has 2 trillion in it for the baby boomers retiring ... about 15% of GDP, not 45 trillion.
Only way to repair it is ... FIX the mess Greenspan and Bush and the rest fixed and collect about 1 trillion more in tax in the USA.

Not going to happen ... all levels controlled by the rich, or the CEO's or the investment banks.

God I love Australia.

happy new year
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Nov 13 2014, 01:58 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


ours is 64.6% and it was 65% in 2007.

USA on the other hand was 4.5% different ... one out of 42 nations I looked at.

Pre GFC, every second person was in construction or mortgage broking in the USA, now .... flipping burgers if they are lucky.

Pre GFC, BLS in the USA had 2 million over 65's in the 35=45 category ... so as to NOT cause any increase in rates. This clealry can be seen via the USA 2010 April Census the physical count which is STILL out 1.7 million. Post GFC into 2013 as the USA workforce crumbled, they REVERSED this and now in 2014 the correct number of over 65's is on the BLS.

For me, its bloody say what they like over there since 2002 when Greenspan and Bernanke on orders from head office lowered rates to 1% and ignored inflation or removed it as they did with a very tight labor market in 2005-06.

They lowered interest rates to levels not seen since 1929. In 1929 the market was trading at 40% of its 10 year prior levels. In 2002 it was trading at 250% of the 10 year prior levels. In 1929 and 1932 employment was hitting peaks of 25% , in 2006 the official unemployment rate was 4.2% and likely lower if one reversed the 0.8% seasonal adjustment that added 0.8% to this total. A seasonal adjustment in 2005 and 2006 NEVER seen the 10 years PRIOR to that and NOT seen ever since.

Inflation in the 1929-33 years was NOT an issue as they lowered rates to the same levels in 2002-03. There was both massive ASSET price deflation and consumer deflation. The total opposite was occurring 2002-2007.

IN post 1929, not only did they have deflation but also MASSIVE negative GDP coupled with it. The government correctly went into deficit by about 5% to stimulate things. In 2002=03 they not only lowered rates to 1930 levels they went spending as though it was 1932. Thing was the GDP was barely NEGATIVE in those years..

Post GFC, well bugger me, same thing, but worse. Peak deficit in the 1930's was about 5% , one post GFC hit near 11% .

In the 1990's the markets went mad into 2000. It was a mistake ... it ignored RISK and despite the correction to 250% of the level 10 years prior, they pretended it was 1929 when 88% of all value was lost, not the mere 50% ... but still 250% of what it was.

This led to the GFC, same levels on valuations .... and rich again thew a tantrum in the USA and here we are again.

Buying assets when there has been extreme asset rice inflation in the USA is ... interesting. In the 1990=97 period most markets tripled, then in 1997-2000 DOUBLED so up 6 fold in 10 years.

Its is for me not so much the post 2000 actions, One has to take into account how stupid the 2000 peaks in the USA were. going back there on an inflation adjusted basis once was .... silly as the post 2000 action showed, twice post 2007 action showed how wise that was ... third time is the charm ? Lets stimulate asset prices on equities and property, destroy bond prices, fiscal budgets and cash at the same time ?

Time of course will tell the outcome ))
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Nov 10 2014, 08:59 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


Jiust to correct that number ... 10% owning stocks directly.

Its currently 14% own stocks directly.

Of the top 10% .... 93.5% hold stocks ...

Pretty much all other DIRECT holders are in the top 20% in the USA.

THis 14% is down from a pre GFC level of 23%.

Indirect and Direct holdings, that is if you have some interest via your super fund in the USA or direct holdings is about 48% of people. SOme via their 401 or 403 b and others via union pension funds or their company ones.

When you take out the 14% at the top who ALSO hold INDIRECT holdings via funds of nearly 80 % in the top 20 % ... you may be able to see the bottom 80% of the USA holds indirectly ..... 48% minus 14% direct holdings minus 16% of funds held by the top 20% so for the bottom 80% of the USA their holdings indirect of shares via some fund is a mere 18% of 80% have any form of savings even linked to the USA stock market.

Such is LIFE.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Nov 7 2014, 04:37 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


Tonight's USA non farm payroll ? Ignore it. Prepared by BLS, along with the CPI, BLS head is Janet Yellens own girl from the NY Fed. Almost as ridiculous as the head of the BEA, which reports USA GDP none other than Janet Yellens own Economists from the San Francisco Fed when she was there.

The ELECTION flop ... means ... GRIDLOCK and until 2017 when Obama departs. It makes me all warm and fuzzy inside the worst president in 100 years George W was followed by another even worse and NOW .... in this fiscally restrained time, not that the USA admits its got any problem as they pay 0.8% for their debt not 3% even 4% ... they are going to return George W Bush's party in 2017. Yipee !!

Time to do anything passed.

Whilst I know Yellen was elected for her VIEW never ever to prick an asset bubble. Zero rates forever, its going to be challenging when the BLS on her instructions of NO bad news produces more and more job gains ... fictional ones because they keep removing more and more from being counted .... so the Unemployment rate in the USA is a fiction and doesn't mean what it does in any other nation .... EU at 11.5% is about what the USA is, the question tonight is how many more do they remove ?

I am aware, Yellen has declared ZERO forever, but despite people NOT being able to see it, the bond market is actually having a total FIT.

USA lost the manufacturing war long ago to China.

It just lost its war it has been waging against anyone NON AMERICAN and in this I mean the EU to be specific. One of my weird predictions from late last year was correct ... and NOT correct. Make NO mistake despite USA bond rates falling things are very seriously astray.

US based investment banks wrote paper after paper attacking the EU. The EU fixed its budgets, fixed its pensions, FIXED its tax system as much as it could. Last stone left was the USA laws enabling US based multinationals to deliberately avoid tax outside the USA. This was not even enough they DECLINED to pay it even inside the USA. Its less than half the 27% rate it was in 2000 and at 13.22% in 2014.

USA corporations went from having pensions 103% funded in 2003 to at best, and I mean at best 73% funded in 2013. The USA lawmakers utterly corrupt via political donations or jobs for the boys turned a blind eye to this. Their excuse was that if companies to NOT fund their pension schemes and PAY MORE tax its a good thing. NO ... not really ... they CHOSE NOT to pay tax on overseas earnings and NOT pay tax even inside the USA. Some USA banks bailed out have 300 subsidiaries in the Caymans paying ZERO tax there and NONE in the USA as well.

This issue, for NOW about underfunded pensions of listed companies in the USA is not a current topic, but to get these pension funds fully funded would require 1.73 trillion or 100% of NPAT declared in 2013. Or if they did it bit by bit, it would cost 15% of all earnings for 10 years. One day soon, this will emerge.

Basically 15% is just part of it, because each year, the lack of funding for the past decade would also need to be added looking forward.

Even this .... and all the rest pales .... PALES in comparison to the current topic over the next 12 months. EU prepared budgets planned fiscally for over 65's going from 10% to 30% .... because NOT like in 1900 where averge age was 50 at birth in life expectacny ... its NOW 80 ... and the baby boomers are already here. USA responded by being critical, downgrading EU nations TIME and time again. Politically they were attacked at every turn.

Most of their budgets were and still are tight. NOTICE one thing and one thing only .... THIS IS OVER.

Whilst Janet ... dear dear Janet indicating she woudl NOT raise rates under instructions from head office EVER, head office being Goldman Sachs, what is NOT so obvious to the English speaking world as yet are a few things.

EU paid in some cases 5% ABOVE inflation for its borrowings and even 7% above for the very large Italians and Spanish nations. Well in the last 18 months .... like clockwork ... sanity has come back and Spain Once at USA plus 5% borrowing costs is USA MINUS 0.24% the lowest rate its ever enjoyed. Whilst the USA has come back from 3% 10 year bonds, all due to Janet indicating even if unemployment fell to 2% GDP was 15% and CPI 25% ... SHE WILL NOT raise rates, its the relative picture one must look at. SPAIN a nation attacked time and time again, borrows for LESS than the USA. Italy lambasted even worse than Spain is borrowing ALSO for the LOWEST rate ever. France who the US based ratings agencies attacked last year to my own total disbelief, a nation that collects 43% of GDP in tax, they downgraded them to levels 5 and 6 notches below the USA ... well USA which collects exactly 17% of GDP in tax and FALLING .... want to estimate what France pays NOW for 10 year borrowings ? ... HALF the USA rate.

So again the USA has lost another war, bt it gets worse. Much much worse .... not that the market is taking notes. EU nations now able to borrow in many cases 2-3% LESS than they could .... what is the effect going to be fiscally ? Well the only reason the USA budget looks ok is via an illusion. USA fed bought 3.5 trillion in long bonds, basically every long bond treasury issued, paid 0.25% to borrow and gave treasury 79 billion profits from the US Fed. All thanks to the silly Japanese holding 4 trillion US treasuries and the Chinese with 4 trillion in USD. SO instead of paying more, the US fed paid less. Well Yellen despite announcing when these bonds mature, she will replace them, its an aside. Instead of paying inflation PLUS 2% to cover its debt which is NORMAL for the last 1,000 years ... its paid INFLATION minus 1.5%. So this with a debt of 110% of GDP and about to hit 18 trillion saved the USA close to 4% of GDP being added to their bottom line budget.

Times oh they are a changing ...

I am not suggesting some massive spike in inflation ... not unless the dollar crashes and only way that happens is if the Japanese and Chinese abandon USA and try and sell 8 trillion USD. I think at some stage possible but not for now.

Fiscally tight EU budgets, REAL ONES .... not Goldman Sachs inspired ones that suggest NO ONE will live beyond 70, or the USA will double its population by 2040 .... EU budgets have been struggling ... due in many cases to HIGH BORROWING COSTS. Well folks over the next year or two the IMPACTS of borrowing costs for governments with debts of over 100% of GDP in most cases in the EU and some up near 130% , if say your Italy your BUDGET will improve around 4% .

Go out to companies .... they also have had to pay the same rates and whilst the USA enjoyed basically from 2011 ZERO for everything and QE driving rates down, NATURAL forces have just totally repriced the bond markets globally. NATURAL FORCES, not a central bank gone MAD .... EU budget planning and taxes need NO change. USA ? stuff me .... they have less than 6 trillion saved for 100 million people needing baout 60 trillion between a pension and healthcare and this is just the next 20 years.

This however is NOT even the big news.

I like most watched WHY the USA after Yellen tattooed ZERO FOREVER why we had the last correction.

My view was that Jack Lew despite being on the board of the Brookings and Robert Rubin from Goldman Sachs his chum .... and Brookings itself being Goldman funded, Lew came back from the G20 and made a lot of noise about changing tax laws in the USA to stop tax inversion. Now weeks latter and Obama in tatters and NOTHING likely to come until say 2018 when the new president finds his feet the EU .... is acting.

Ignored by the ignorant ... if your only reading USA media its sadly all skewed one way.

Once upon a time, if you wanted to hide your cash and pay NO tax you went to Switzerland, one of the tax haven enablers. So too Ireland for many, so too Switzerland for others ... Still .... Caymans and a long list of others.

USA corporate tax laws made it LEGAL for them to steal from overseas and pay whatever tax they liked. Hide behind tax havens and to enforce was an impossibility. WAS being the operative word.

Whilst MR LEW and his corrupt bureaucrats in the USA utterly and totally corrupt were and are happy to pay 4% less for their debt than they should and to POINT fingers at how insane the 30 EU nations are telling the truth and balancing their budgets, this is at an end.

NO bloody wonder their budgets were tight paying so much more.

What is interesting is this article.

Whilst at the G20 a few months ago the finance ministers had ONLY one thing on the agenda and it was corporate tax theft, Lew went back to the USA made some noise, but NOTHING will happen.

Read this article NOT with USA in mind ... how about the EU. its been under seige for almost a decade. Despite getting its house fiscally in order the attacks went on. Its struggled to make ends meet paying UNTIL now 2/3/4% MORE than the USA. Imadgine your budget if its NOW revealed ... that the MISSING 2% of GDP being stolen via NO TAX being paid or at 1%, you can now see it ... in just one of these havens ....

The EU will NOT turn a blind eye. The USA with lobbyists bombarding congress and the House and Obama will likely do NOTHING and this state of affairs sadly will go until I suspect 2018. EU on the other had may even go so far as to RECOVER past tax avoided WITH penalties.

So a nation like France that really struggled to get its next few budgets down to 3% deficit, NOW being able to enjoy about 2% of GDP pressure taken off via lower interest rates for them, and with the 2% of GDP these cretins stole from it able to be RECOVERED, will it sit on its hands ? Or get a surplus WW2 rocket ... say a V2 and send it to headquarters hiding under US tax laws in Florida ?

We shall see. G 20 will be interesting to say the least. Leaking of 300 sweetheart tax deals ? naming names .... and amounts .... NO lets rally to a new high .... until Apple with 155 billion in cash, but UNABLE to take it back to the USA because they have to pay tax not at 2% but 35% gets sent a bill from France for APPLE FRANCE never making a profit there but sales of 200 billion and profits at 50-60 billion sends them a bill for 50 billion or so. should be amusing how much is left if this occurs of that cash pile ?

Tonight ? Non farms .... More drivel from a yellen stooge.

Meanwhile Ben Bernanke gave a speech this week from Goldman funded Brookings and was paid $250,000- for 45 minutes. He funnily enough went to Harvard then MIT. Fisher the deputy at the US fed was his PHD helper at MIT .... but at Harvard ... given Mr Bernanke is at the Goldmans funded place for a million or so a year for life ....

Today's trivia question on the corrupt state of the USA Fiscal and Monetary system is, Who did Ben Bernanke share his room with whilst at Harvard doing his undergrad degree ?

No cheating .... NO not Yellen .. none other than ... LLoyd Blankfein the current CEO of Goldman Sachs and the funder of Bens current job.

Secondary question .... what institution hosted 3 different PHD's over 11 years .... MIT .. I will give you that one .... since we know Bernanke got his PHD there and we know Fisher the deputy head of the US fed who was Bernankes helper for his PHD what other luminary .... who also has a job at a Goldmans funded institute got his PHD there .... just before Fisher ?


the winner is of course .... Janet Yellens husband the 74 year old who also cant see bubbles.

And to think I wasted so much time looking at USA statistics without looking at the source .... this is post GFC ... one side Yellens fellow from the NY Fed .... for one set of numbers ..... I did pick up on Mr Elemdorf another proteche of yellens at both the Fed but Now producing BUDGET estimates at the Congressional Budget offcie ...Mr Elemndorf .... also head of Brookings the goldman funded think tank or is it propaganda unit that has goals of no tax ... the BEA is whom was the latest find .... Yellens own personal Economists from the San Fran Fed office where she was the head and didn't see the GFC or any issue with house prices rising 300% in 10 years.

Whilst Janet publicly declares she will never PRICK and asset bubble with Monetary policy, there are only two policies for governments to use. In 99.99% of nations they USE them both. In the USA post 2000 they use NEITHER.

If you raised interest rates 5% pre GFC ... there would not have been a GFC. Instead after the stupidest of asset rallies into 2000 and the NASDAQ going from 1,250 to 5,000- the USA reacted as though it was 1929 and Budget surplus went to a deficit the same size as 1932 !! Interest rates as though it was 1930, were lowered to 1%. Thing is in 1932, or 1930 ... the USA stock market was TRADING AT 40% OF ITS LEVEL 10 YEARS PREVIOUSLY. In 2002 the market was 250% of what it was previously.

Basically the rich, corporate ceo's and others had a tantrum because their fake profits evaporated in 2002.

Sadly inflation went nuts in 2002-2007 ... USA just removed it. Every second person was flipping houses, or a mortgage broker and unemployment went to unheard of levels ... unheard of ... because when it was tight they REMOVED even that .. they adjusted USA unemployment UP 0.8% for two years in never seen before statistical adjustments ... they also removed 2 million over 65's .... and called them aged 35 ... and able to work. this total was still out 1.7 million in 2010. Post GFC they just did the opposite ... NO bad news ... lets not report it.

So this number tonight ... from a nation and the only nation that has removed 5% PLUS from the participation rate post GFC, ... for me is an aside. Seriously had enough ... and must let it go and it run its course.

In 1929, the USA market was like in 2014 TRIPLE its lows from 1923. I am not suggesting too much here .... it peaked at 280% on my fair value scale and had an extinction burst to the top in 1929 before crashing ... to 34% of full value in 1932. In 2000 the madness peaked around 210% ... not as mad as 1929 but very close. In 2007 about the same 214% so here .... 229% right now, do we go another 20% ? Yipee !!


I have been around so long and seen companies worth $1- trade at $10- ... love the Uranium guys .... or ones worth 5 cents trade at $3-. Now trading at 0.6 cents ....

In 2006 Chinese wnet mad and sent their index to 6,000 before loosing 80% ....

In 1986-91 Japan went even harder and nearly hit 40,000- before hitting 7,500 ish ....

Nasdaq 5000 or 1,200 a few years latter.

Depends what you think.

I will not convince anyone of anything .... do what you must.

In the lead up to all these events .... or most of them, Monetary policy and FISCAL policy were LAX. IF you went get stuffed and raised either tax as a percentage of GDP 3% and did the same to interest rates, these events are impossible to NOT see ... unless your Janet Yellen or Ben Bernanke or Greenspan. How do you miss it.

The greatest of all .... the depression. Despite what USA media may say ..... or Bernanke say ... interest rates pre 1929 BARELY moved and the budget SURPLUS ... draining money BARELY moved pre 1929 Crash. If they had acted I suspect it may have made a difference !! It has when used for the 80 years after that. Sadly USA has abandoned this policy, the EU has NOT ... nor Australia or NZ and a long list of others. Most central banks act if housing prices get out of hand, Yellen and her cohorts as we know ignore it. Perfect for head office at Goldmans.

Post 1929, things crashed from 380 in the dow to .... was it 34 or 44 ? Without looking ... either way a big crash. Bernanke is famous for a myth. despite being a well published economist, he also is an idiot. No move or even attempt was made pre 1929 to slow things down. What the ISSUE and problem post 1929 was ..... they FAILED to act quickly. If you believe common myth and BernaNke himself I have seem him say it time and time again would have you believe that the USA RAISED rates post 1929 at some stage. that of course is total BS. Rates in 1929 were 5.8% ... they did react and lowered them to 0.6% and reasonably quickly ..... but they did not rise again till 1947 above 1% !!! Massive inflation years of the war .... u know WW2 ... they ignored it.

This by th way is the same level Bernanke and Greenspan and cohorts lowered rates to in 2002-03. Unemployment hit 25% back then. In 2006 if you take out the statistical buggery of seasonal adjustments and then 2 million elderly being counted as 70%able to work v 15% participation, I suspect the USA unemployment rate which officially had a seasonally adjusted low of 4.2% or a raw number of an amazing 3.5% was likely even 1% lower than that. The policy was to STIMULATE both fiscally and Monetarily as much as they did in 1932 !!

Even more post GFC. ZERO ... QE ... fiscal side they peaked post 1929 at a deficit of 5% of GDP for the goverment in 1934 I think, post GFC they hit it over the head and it peaked at 11% deficit basically double the 1929 effort.

Was unemployment at 25% ? NOPE ... yes serious ... but HALF the 1929 effort. The other war the USA lost economic wise was the manufacturing one and in 2014 the USA imports 250% of the inflation adjusted amount it did from China in 2000 and 200% of the goods it did from Mexico. None of which has much to do with the GFC, but free trade, or trading jobs for lower prices.

One hand Yellen will not prick an asset bubble ever. She ignores them. She ignored the pre GFC San Fran housing at 3 times the price in 1995 v 2005. In 2014 its 140% of the GFC peak.

Other side ... Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan whilst NOT seeing an asset bubble one side .... PULL OUT ALL STOPS if asset prices ever go down !! Thats the monetary policy of the USA post 1999. Fiscally its the same. Lets ignore a bubble we created for 2007 or the one now ... but if it goes DOWN ... spend like never before.

Now its a total waste of time watching any of it. OBAMA already a puppet .... is the president of not a lot. So his VETO pen will be out of ink by 2017. It takes 66% majority in both the HOUSE and Senate to get something passed a presidential VETO.

In the meantime, in 2013 , even using totally rubbish models with garbage goin in .... the USA unfunded side went up 11 trillion. that's 66% of GDP. So lets just pen in 2014,15,16,17,18 and then Mr Bush the third arrives, or someone from that party and cuts taxes so the USA corporates pay Not 13.22% tax in 2013 v 27% in 2000 but 2% !! Or Mr Buffet who paid 17.5% tax v 33% in 2000, and his income well over 10 million, his secretary on say $120,000- paid 26.3% in tax.

Once upon a time if you earn t $50,000- you paid 20% overall tax, $100,000- say 25% ... 200,000 say 30% and 10 million 33%. Its the case for most nations .... not the greedy needy in the USA.

I do wonder if any of APPLES 155 billion will be left if the EU demands the tax STOLEN back. Meanwhile Abbot and Hockey in Australia both had unfortunate accidents last G20 meeting when the USA delegation stopped suddenly both had to get their heads surgically removed from the anatomy of the USA delegation.

Stay cool ... suspect a bumper NON FARM ... 300 kk ... no lets go 312 k and 5.7% .... meanwhile participation rate down 0.2% ... to account for those NEW jobs. One side the workforce magically reduces 312,000- jobs ... the ones gained and the other Yellens pet declares they are new jobs .... created ... NOT.

Maybe they get creative and they use the population numbers to mask it this time. I always am amused at what head office does. One month the USA population drops miraculously despite 900,000 NET BEING ADDED EACH YEAR. The BLS does what it likes ... as does the BEA.

Last one for me for a while ... I know the end outcome but do we get 6,000 like the Chinese ... or an extinction burst even from here ? Just back the obvious one .... EU and other nations are NOT going to put up with 2% of GDP IN TAX REVENUE BEING STOLEN ANY LONGER.

I personally need t stop actually giving a damm ... let it go ... I know the outcome. I cant change it ... and spending far too much time trying to understand what they are thinking, but trying to understand someone who is a Sociopath or a corporate yes run by men, but without remorse or conscience is not going to help me or get me anywhere.

It is what it is. Sadly as Einstein said " expecting a different outcome from the same experiment conducted time and time again is madness".

Expecting anything more morally is my own issue. As to the experiment with greed and corruption, its been around forever. My little world with rose colored glasses is no more.

Repeat after me ... ZERO rate forever for the USA and ... I cant see bubbles NOT now, not ever ... I will take NO action ever to prick one, but god forbid a bubble like Japan in 1991 at near 40,000 on the Nikkei I will NOT ever let it fall. I like Leeson that idiot from Barings who went LONG the Nikeei at 35,000 and destroyed the bank .... in the USA now post 2000 he actually was ahead of his time !!!

have a good weekend

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 31 2014, 03:57 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


sing it .... after me ... ZERO FOREVER .... ZERO FOREVER ....

Zero rates dictate, for now.

Imact on Japan ? Well JGB's at 0.46% the 10 year bonds is it worth the 5% Japan rallied at peaks ?

Maybe in some alternate universe.

QE came in to take US bond rates DOWN from over 3% for goverment ones .... and corporate ones at 6-7%. It worked.

Taking something under 0.5% to maybe 0.3% Hmmm yep thats worth 5% rally in stocks.

Meanwhile Yellens husband now working at head office can get directions for Janet Directly from the CEO's of both Goldman Sachs and Carlyle in his new Job. Meanwhile in a totally different institution, on the other seaboard, Ben Bernanke at the Brookings institute after his 3 million speaking tour is able to sit back and write PRO USA fed paper after paper whilst dozing on a million a year.

Yawn, short term yep .... UP.

Yellen has NO intention to raise rates, she has 3.4 trillion in bonds at 2.7% to FUND. The USA goverment has 18 trillion ... so every 1% costs about 1.5% of the total USA GDP.

If GDP last night had come out weaker at 2.4% instead of 3.4% the USA marekt would have rallied. It meant that there was an excuse for Janet NOT to raise rates. That it came out at 3.5% higher than expected, it still going to rally because things are looking up.

It might stun you to know that the head of the BEA producing these numbers which are fictions in themselves is NONE other than the Ex Head of economics at none other than the USA Federal reserve at San Francisco. Another of Yellens pets. I kid you NOT.

The person who produces the lovely NON farm payroll numbers in the USA is NONE other than the ed deputy at US Fed in new York ... these are the numberrs that removed 5% of USA uneployment being reported.

Very bad things happen as I said in 2007 when you mess with these numbers. Glad to see they have not learnt their lesson.

USA has GDP growth 7 times the EU but lower interest rates if you believe the numbers.

It has CPI at 2.2% 4 times the EU but again lower rates.

It has Unemployment 5% below the EU at 5.9% v 11% and STILL has LOWER rates.

that is if you are actually believing these numbers.

Numbers hand prepared by her own faithful.

Sadly If USA had 15% GDP, ZERO unemployment and 10% CPI, Yellen would not raise rates.

So if you sing after me, ZERO forever ZERO forever ... you get one part of the equation.

IF the USA has even worse going on with its FISCAL side it estiamtes costs of caring for the elderly medical wise which are 5 times the cost of those UNDER age 65, will NOT rise, Not rise despite the numbers TRIPLING and the PERCENTAGE tripling maybe you can understand my position of understanding YES due to ZERO rates the USA Equity side will rise. Due to HALF price tax being paid at 13.22% v 27% in 2000 both for the RICH and corporates, the cost estimates on the baby boomers make the reported Unemployment rates in the USA look factual despite being fictional.

As I type Japan rallies well above 5% up. The vote I note was 5/4 in favour NOt the whitewash Yellen and her bribed cronies enjoy. Japan with its over 65's hitting 38% in 2055 is SOMETHING they admit and budget for. Germany at 35% then, France at 34% and Italy about the same ...

The USA and Mr LEw and another bunbch of related cretins on the fiscal side in the USA have 19.7% as their NUMBER forever. Its like all the rest, a fiction. Contained in the budgets, overestimating income by 25%, under estimating costs by 25% .... NOT something that happens in the EU, the number for over 65's counted in the 240 trillion admitted Contingent liabilities of the USA is about 10% I suspect.

Whilst looking too far ahead for most, most pensions in the USA topple by 2025. Saving grace fiscally is paying under 1% on their DEBT.

Italy and Spain both taking in 40% plus of GDP in TAX v the USA federally at 17% had to pay 5% above inflation .... USA pays 1.3% UNDER it fr now.

Corporates in the USA like Apple enjoy paying 2% or less to nations they operate in, Apple in 2013 on 6 billion sales in Australia profit at 40% according to head offcie paid 40 million NOT 720 million in tax here. Sadly for them, times are a changing.

Maybe Japan can go up 10% in a single day. Reminds me of 1988-91. Yes I was around even then. It took the index 16 years to find a low from near 40,000- to 7,500.

So I am yawning at present. Oh gee its only up 5.4% the Japanese. ANY LOGICAL impact when your cost of borrowing is UNDER 0.5% and MAYBE ... MAYBE might fall 0.2% is BUGGER all. Then again what does the ex head of trading at a G10 bank know ?

Not much in 2014
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 29 2014, 03:37 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Read about two pages down .... slayer .... about the reasoning of this thread.

then again someone has to hold stocks into corrections and others exit and reenter at half price.

As to tonight ..... USA Fed meeting. Writing another book ... my G20 questions for Abott and Hockey or any other leader to ask.

Tonight ... it ZERO FOREVER ... Zero forever .... Sing it .....

Yellen after denying the USA unemployment numbers were fake and UNDERSTATING the REAL issue, NOW has adopted a new measure to guide her in rates. She will be consulting with fellow members of the flat earth society about the recent events they caused chanting at the moon and why it turned RED.

Basically If USA Official unemployment falls to 2% she will not MOVE.

An amusing factoid ... USA healthcare costing double that of Australia the most conservative estimate for the over 65's I could find was a cost of USD $350,000- for the AVERAGE person over the 20 years they will last from age 65. Interestingly 65% of all costs medially we incur happen post age 65 and its 5 times more likely we have 3 or more chronic issues in old age than PRIOR to it.

But if we take the 15,000- current social Security pension of the USA and the $17,500 cost PER year an elderly person puts upon the USA healthcare system, its HALF that in Australia, remembering most spend a lot of time in hospital and the average is 38 days.

So what does 80 million Americans with 2 trillion in Social Security and THATS It cost as the baby boomers retire in the next 15 years between NOW and when they depart ? MY reasoning for a lot of what is about to come is the answer.

Its 52 trillion for those of you who can add. Or 300% of the GDP of the USA. This is NOT allowing for ANY growth in healthcare costs over inflation in the USA.

So NO SAVINGS, a nation which collects a mere 17% of GDP in tax, has 2 trillion in the whole of the social security system is going to be able to pay out 2.6 trillion each year ? Tee hee.

There is NO discounting for present value. These are in real dollars each year. If they think they can pay people 20% of the average wage or $193 a week, $10,000- a year and thats it in retirement, I think they may be surprised as less than 40% of these 80 million even own their home.

Oh and if Janet like I suspect goes ZERO FOREVER ... what is the present value of a future cash-flow at ZERO percent ? Well its 100% of the cost no matter when, there is NO discount to PV it.

For 6,000 years only fools lent at below inflation. If you don't report inflation funny things happen .... and NOT so funny. USA pre GFC fudged their numbers so much it was astounding. A pound of Ground beef or Mince has quadrupled in price since 2000, healthcare costs double, petrol for the USA is triple since they don't pay tax very much on it.

Despite official CPI at 2.2% USA will maintain via EMPRESS Yellen zero for many years.

For me its besides the point. What little they do have in retirement savings outside the goverment run ones Yellen by declaring ZERO Forever will fall further and further behind.

Meanwhile EU is debating on issuing Apple with Fines for unpaid tax for past years.

Market in its wisdom went UP, not down, UP.

I think they and You and I both know the USA Fed will do nothing against Head offices interest at Goldman Sachs. Not with Ben Bernake now residing at the Goldman funded Brookings institute and Janet Yellens 74 year old doddering hsband starting at another Goldman Sachs funded institution. Funny thing is the CEO of Goldman and CEO of Carlyle the gun maker and arms merchant sits on the board of Yellens husbands NEW job and BEn Bernankes job.

Nothing like the USA where you can pay a donation to a place that's been deemed a tax deduction, NOT pay the 35% TAX and in effect the goverment misses out and pays the 35% tax and its a bribe in sheep's clothing ....

So expecting Yellen to do anything other than tow the head offices line when her husband starts next week is so unlikely I would place it in the Stupid bin even to suggest it.

How does a nation that only collects 17% of GDP in tax intend to FUND a 52 trillion dollar bill, or 300% of GDP over the NEXT 20 years ? when the bill just hit 18 trillion or around 110% of GDP ? That is just part of the mess the USA has, about 33% of it.

Where does the scale tip. Greece got to pay Inflation PLUS 8% for its debt prior to the haircut. USA is paying inflation MINUS 2.2%. Greece actually collected just about 30% of GDP in tax. THe EU average is around 40% ... so too is OURS if your COUNT an dont miss the fact that Workers compensation is NOT counted directly about 1.5% of GDP ... Superannuation is PRIVATE here as opposed to the 17% of GDP total of the USA which is goverment run and included in that 17% ..... so add another 6% and most charts I see produced overseas on our tax system DO NOT even included GST in it about 5.5 % of GDP. So if I look at that prune from the IMF the tax rate here, all taxes is claimed to be 27% same as the USA including state, local and city taxes on top of the federal number at 17% so a total of 27% ... we are the same if you ignore .... 6% + 5.5% + 1.5% taking us to right around the EU and UK totals of 40% pf GDP.

Greece got cut loose because it barely collected 30% of GDP in tax v the EU total at 40%. USA actually only collects 27% and Corporates pay 13.22% tax vs a headline rate of 35% in 2013. The rich ... want a laugh the official tax rate is 39.2% in the USA and in 2000 they collected CLOSE to that rate, NOW its 17.9% and Warren Buffett himself pays 17.5% whilst his secretary on 100 k a year pays 26.5% TAX including social Security.

Its not a matter of IF it topples, its just when. But writing another book with G20 questions for the leaders to answer.

Yellen tonight ..... YAWN .....

the USA fed has just indicated rather than LET the 3.3 trillion in bonds it holds at some stage roll off, Yellen came out and said she will be replacing them as they mature. She will be buying 30 year BONDS yielding a mere 0.8% above the official inflation rate, BELOW the rate of inflation of the last 20 years, NO premium of 1% above for a 10 years loan or 2% above Cash rates which themselves for 1,500 years ALWAYS or most times traded at CPI plus 1.25% and certainly had that average for the 1900-2000 period in the USa so instead of having cash rates at 3.5% NOW with inflation at 2.2% and 10 year bonds at 1% more or 4.5% they are at 2.1% and 30 years at 5.5% they are at 3% .....

The reason why we charge MORE for term is OBVIOUS. I only lend with a premium built in. Longer term, I charge more. Australia does this, so did the rest of the world for 1,500 years .... so do most even now. EU inflation is 0.5% and falling.

Since Janet is holding 3.3 trillion in bonds with I suspect an average yield of 2.7% on them, the chances of her ever raising cash rates and her borrowing rate to 2.2% the current CPI in the next 20 years seem to me to be about ZERO. The USA goverment enjoying paying under 1% for a fiscal system about to collapse belies every other bond crisis I have seen or heard about in the last 1000 years.

How sure am I of these issues ? Well we live until we are 80 at borth not 50 as we did in 1900. I am very sure on the USA life epcetacny and umbers of baby boomers. Live till your 65, on averge you live till age 85. Amount set aside on paper for Social Securoty and Medic al needs for 100 million baby boomers set to retire in the next 25 years is 2 trillion. Cost ... 52 trillion.

Maths is NOT hard. Watching this market driven by idiots is.

If the EU goes after Apple and some of the others, GE .... virtually all who operate there in fact, Apple for Australia paid 40 million in tax on what was 2.4 billion in profits so at 1.666% instead of 30% tax rate. A shortfall of 680 million, a theft. In one single year. So if the EU which is heading that ways decided to RECOVER the theft of taxes in state sponsored theft, the USA tax laws enable them to do it, but USA does not give a damm tha its companies operating outside USA and what tax they pay, if Australia estimated its UNPAID tax via just one company, NO pentailes over the last 10 years its around 5 billion. We represent 4% of apples annual sales of 157 billion in 2013. Its sales are 66% outside the USA and its paid ZERO tax in some nations with similar profits. The tax is stashed in a tax haven and the USA made it legal if the money was never brought back to the USA. So basically whatever they do to the rest of the world its fine, but apple if we just pick on them, the tax bills potentially they will be facing WITHOUT fines ... for Japan who I believe their sub their has NEVER reported a profit or the UK or Germany, the total tax bill Apple could get handed will llikely top 100 billion without ANY penalty.

Whilst we can ignore and HOPE they dont go back as they should and charge for PAST theft and just close this Theft looking forward, the profits as reported now will fall 15% as they will actually be paying tax not .... stealing it. I have looked at the offcial Apple Annual report and its CLAIMED they set aside 26% for TAX, but they certainly did not pay it here, or in the USA, it was set aside in that slushy fund set up in Ireland.

So many ways for this to topple and all of them .... ignored. No one cares, and it will be claimed like a black swan event how could we ever see it ?

Since Japan estimates in 2055 38% of their population will be over age 65 I find it interesting that USA officially estimates 19.7% by then. Germany ..... 35% if your wondering most EU nation sin the 31-36% area. USA ..... sing that song ... zero forever ....

Prior to that the EU will extract Apples left nut. So till will Australia and virtually all multinationals use this or other tax dodges. GE a massive company pays around the same tax at 2% ... the list contains virtually all of the S+P 500.

But for now ... Yellens husband needs a job, he starts next week.

Good Luck
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 13 2014, 04:26 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


about a new thread,

PRE GFC at 6,850- on the ASX 200, as I was expressing somewhat simialr views about direction, but Different causes ... I had a similar discussion which is fine with someone who disagreed. Of course I can be wrong, actually hope I am wrong this time ... because its 5 times the size of the GFC .... I have NO desire to see the USA or its people suffer but the issues are really simple to see. That is if you open your eyes and mind. As you said they could hit this week, and could hit in 5 years, but they are massive and undeniable.

But I did love that thread the giuys started pre GFC who yes was questioning the mad idiot talking about a 40% fall in the index, as it went on it got worse and worse and the eventual 55% was where it stopped. But yes ... its correct always to QUESTION everything. I have no issue with that.

I have no issue with buy hold and forget, at least until 1999. Then the USA markets hit 1929 style valuation peaks, so too in 2007 and here in 2013-14.

I AM TOLD ... this time its different. An experiment most nations have conducted many times in the last 100 years with the exact same results every time. Japan the most famous of these in 1991 almost had its index at 40,000-. Despite inflation and 16 years passing a low was NOT seen in inflation adjusted terms till 2007 a loss of 80% off its peak..

Pre GFC the Chinese market became the gambling center without going to Macau and what did it hit ... I did such amusing comments on it when it was 6,000- and what the hell was the low ? 20% of that ?

I got the most stick in 2000 when I coomented on the NASDAQ with disbelief as it hit 5,000 they were commenting it would hit 10,000 within 3 years .... well it's 14 years latter, I still have my NASDAQ 5,000 hat, and did it hit 5,000 this rally as Facebook at 100 P/E and Twitter with NO P/E drove it there ? Oh in the meantime NASDAQ lost 80% plus.

I suppose being honest the mast famous amount of hot water I got myself into was in 2007 and at a conference I booed ass I was the only person without a positive view on Uranium. I in fact here and there publicly went to say I believed the spot price was $35- a LB there in 2014 v the $120- lb price then. I produced photos of new mines in Kazakhstan, reproduced WMC drilling at BHP's now owned Olympic Dam and pointed out the deposit was 30 times larger than BHP was admitting then ... eventually they confirmed it .... the fact is Kazakhstan now produces 4 times the Uranium it did in 2007 ... all now history ... and sadly PDN the leader of the craze here is NOT $10- PLUS its lost 97% of its value.

I did get in worse trouble with another one ... death threats, legal htreats for the power saving device that had a company with a product that was turned off for 12 hours a day and it AMAZINGLY was being touted as a power saving device saving 50% POWER ... because instead of being turned on 24 hours a day ... was turned off for 12 hours .... they brilliant market got the company at one stage back just after the DOT COM boom had faded, its worthless totally worthless product had a market cap of 300 million for the company. Of course a scam dressed up like a company. But I don't comment on companies much anymore other than top 200 stocks because ... well no one cares.

I did try with a few Uranium hopefuls to hose them down pre GFC. Some were idiotic and insane. All are WORTHLESS in 2014, ALL of them. Sure some have 1-3% of market value left v the peaks but the devoted don't care. It like the Chinese was not a business decision it was HORSE NUMBER 6 in race 5 by a nose ...

For some, we step aside and the premise of the thread is if you buy a share you think is worth $5- and buy it at $2.55 what do you do if it pays you 10% plus to hold it in dividends for 3 years and it gets to $5- what do you do with the share then ? Do you love it some more .... think it goes to $10- when not much has changed and the PRICE v the RISK is much different ?

I tend to sell it, or reduce the holding, or if I think the whole market or more to the point the leader of ALL markets USA is on drugs and about to see a once in 100 year correction, NOT just the GFC love kiss at 55% but a full blown one like China, like NASDAQ post 2000 and like Japan and the eventual 16 year spiral to hell ... rightly or wrongly I suspect at BEST we see a 50% correction ... at worst .... well some never call a correction NOT ever.

Hello to Dr Shane Oliver from AMP in 2008 called our market up 15% a market which fell 43% in that year. Mr Oliver to my knowledge has never called a down market ever. I of course occasionally do call things down, even small corrections the tops and then the bottoms but even stopped bothering with that. This thread of course LIVE and real time and if Wren cares to get a chart and go back to the start ... it started the day the market peaked and had one of those corrections, just the normal small healthy ones which are 7% or 8% or more ... which at times can be 15% or 25% or the big ones which are more and they are rarer and impossible to predict so I am told.

We shall see if the market in the USA trades at 900 HALF where it is now or 666 the GFC low or at 500 about what the 1929 correction did to things. It may NOT be that clear if say the Japanese dumped their currency holdings in the USA and China as well ... unlikely ... but it might be a 30% loss via USD falling out of bed and the 50% fall in equities as the index fell as well.

Just a view and a long term one. Do I or did I wish to chase the USA market from 1,810- to what I was sure was going to be 2,000- when I am worried we could have a series of cascading things like 1987 where the USA market looses 30% quickly over a week or so as its illegal to sell now ? Do I chase the last 10% up, and risk it ? No thanks I am not that greedy ... its up 290% off the 666 low and yep I know the USA market for so many reasons had to get to 3 times that low 300% ... the 2,000 target ... all to the wombats who are the smart arses of Wall St now, had to have. But can they get it higher ?

ONLY time will tell.

I must run and read that thread from 2007 was it " cash is NOT king and this is the BOTTOM of the cycle ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 13 2014, 12:06 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


I will respond in full latter.

The theme of this thread is about exiting corrections.

I only EXITED USA stocks after being bullish post 2009 in 2013 at 1,810 in the S+P 500.

Yes longer term I am bullish AUD. I wrote a paper in 2004 and another in 2005 when Aud was sub 60 cents and then at 62 cents and shared a view I thought it hit a post GFC high of 90 cents by 2007 and $1.10 in 2011.

I do hold the VIEW long term ... in disagreement with Wren POST 2018 ... when all LNG export facilities come on line the currency will only go up and YEP a new high. Since it s not 2018 I have NO idea what your on about Wren.

At the time I disagreed with you about the very short term direction of the AUD it was below 90 cents. Commentators and yourself were talking 80 cents SOON. I believed correctly 12 months ago when I penned a very long term view on the currency the DIRECTION short term WAS UP, NOT down, Not lower than 88 cents BUT up. It went UP ... to 96 cents or so.

If we see another GFC, I suspect AUD goes DOWN, like in the GFC as all hot money in Australia moves out. But over time a nation with a NET DEBT .... NET of 20 % of GDP and about to when LNG comes on line become the worlds largest LNG exporter and our balance of payments will go NUTS .... for me as a ex FX boy since 1982 .... my opinion for what little its worth ... is that its hard to see it going DOWN.

Of course I could b wrong and quite often are, and that I got it right and VERY right in the past counts for little. But lets see what the next few years holds and what happens.

As to FMG, I hated them pre GFC. And this goes to the core of the idea of this thread. I hated them at $10- and NO or little production and great debt. At $2- and BELOW during the GFC I liked them, for the few days they went sub $1.50 I LOVED them.

FMG as many know has been my main trading stock post GFC. Here ... yep an issue. Do I think longer term and I mean long term .... 10 years it goes to $20- and POSSIBLY $25- ... but here ... well I still have NO ISSUE with the viability long term of FMG. As much as the analysts and media keep coming back post GFC I have been able to go in and out of FMG with the rise and fall in ore prices.

The spot PRICE matters NOT one bugger. The AVERAGE one receives over a year DOES. The WORLDS lowest cost producers can do it for $50- or so a ton, They however cannot MAKE A single cent there. There are FINITE producers at these levels and the only reason their current cost of production is SO LOW is they already built and paid off railways and ports to produce it. FMG the new boy on the block still has this component in its COST of production. For BHP to expand its operation doesn't need to spend 13 billion building a new rail line or port.

DO I expect FMG at $25- or what I think my call was $20- anytime soon ? Of course not. But there are likely to 9 billion people on this planet by 2060 about 3 times what there were in 1960. India has 600 million under the age of 25. The demand , Driven via Demographics v SCARCE resources wil underpin production. Australia shipping to China has a massive COST advantage over the South American Deposits and as such for me, the current price long term is about it.

I had similar views on oil, correct ones shared from 2002 here and other places. Demand rose near supply. no new production had been built or very little due to OPEC for many years. i was aware estimates of this cost of NEW production would not be able to get very much needed new supply on line for $20- a barrel let alone $40- a barrel. I suggested it needed to be near $80- a barrel eventually to ensure exploration and new wells to replace old ones which ran out.

Iron ore, not the rarest of minerals but FMG has about I suspect 100 years supply at current production levels. My very long term call is based upon the fact that in 10 years time I believe the production will be around 250 million tons a year. The current debt to me is NO issue ... or a small one they renegotiated their debt, reduced the SIZE and cost and lengthen the term of the debt. All very very good things. Thier total production pre GFC was TINY its now 155 million tons.

SO at some stage as I said I suspect they have 80 years if not more reserves at 250 million tons a year production. So paying off the debt of the new venture LOWERS the cost of production, as does the EXPANSION they have done to date. I an wary a bit here due to the fact that Chinese producers of LOW grade iron ore costing about $100 a ton are holding on for grim lfe. they know if they close down production NOW ... they will likely not open again for a long time. Not until the spot price is $140 a ton. FMG whilst not great grade, VOLUME and QAUNITIY HAS ITS OWN QUALITY. Did the lower FE grade of FMG v BHP or RIO have a very breif impact on prices they got ? YES, but FMG and their costs NOW at full production have TUMBLED and either the world makes things out of something other than Steel ... which is unlikely or it pays eventually the economic cost of production and even MORE than that as the Australian miners due to location save a lot on shipping to Asia.

Is FMG risky ? Of course. Is it possible that something happens should we see another GFC ? Of course. But over time, RESOURCES in my opinion are if ECONOMIC in size they are FINITE and the DEMAND for decent grades in volume can only be served by not many sources.

Long term and my view on FMG and WHY I don't mind them as a long term 10 years sort of thing is simple. Very very simple. When as I suspect they eventually increase production to 250 million tons, one day they will get paid $20- a TON profits on it. About 5 billion. Current market cap of FMG is 10 billion. that's a P/E of 2. Since I was scabby I said it would be a P/E of 10. So yep $20- was my view. Nations are moving to protect heir scant resources and India putting taxes on Iron ore exports or banning others has been followed by Indonesia and many others doing the same. Hence why I am 100% in favor of a resource export tax .... I do believe its possible in 15 years time, LONG term FMG might even have paid back all the costs LIKE BHP and RIO have for their rail systems and ports, that FMG cost per ton will be comparable to RIO and BHP. Right now however BHP producing for 30 year has paid off the cost of its ports and rails, FMG is in the process of doing this whilst ramping up and hitting its 155 Million ton target.

One year, they may even make $40- a ton overall, 10 billion NPAT .... 100 % of the Current market cap.

But right now, RISKS are rising, I am not happy with USA state of affairs and as such like during the GFC and PRE GFC I demanded a massive premium for risk to take risk.

That is what this thread is all about. Some are happy to hold their shares forever. Despite buying something at $20- watching it double pre GFC to near $40- like many of the banks, then HALVE during the GFC and even lower, they actually were behind even on their initial investment. I prefer to EXIT, I take my $20 - I initially put in, Happy to pay tax on the $20- gain and either end up with say $15- AFTER tax along with my now protected $20- initial outlay, I have $35- TAX paid in my little hand and await buying back the very same shares for HALF the price but buying DOUBLE the amount of them.

That is what this thread is about. Whist you don't even agree on that, someone has to hold shares during asset price corrections and I prefer NOT to. Right or wrong, when a stock market triples in 5 years after a crash and NOTHING is fixed .... NOTHING in the underlying structure of the problem I am very happy to exit 10% ago as I did in the USA market ... whoops its now only 5%. In the meantime the Australian market I was hoping for some catchup v the USA, has and is DOWN in 2014 and done bugger all. Nothing like having zero rates to prop your market, having half priced tax and ignoring issues.

USA collects federally 2% less tax than it did as a percentage of GDP in 2013 v 1995. IN every nation I looked at due to the impending baby boomers it has RISEN ... but not the USA. Whilst many think SUPER in Australia is NOT a tax, IT is. Its overseen via the Tax office and they impose penalties and so on. Its basically a privatized old age pension. To highlight the plans of the USA and its idiotic LOWERING tax 2% as a percentage of GDP post 1995, so the greedy needy rich pay half price tax, corporates the same. In Australia the plan is to raise the Super rate to 12% over time. Call it what you will ... the DIM WIT at the IMF seems to miss it every time she speaks about Australia but it is NONE the less a tax or imposition on employers. So too is Social Security as the USA employer pays 6.2% in tax as does the employee the same but the SOCIAL TAXES cover workers comp, disability, Unemployment, PENSIONS OLD AGE Ones and Medicare ..... but call them what you will. USA has decided for the Needy greedy via Bureaucrats and utterly corrupt incompetent ones along with politicians and presidents who I thought Bush Junior was bad< Obama is worse. But here in Australia via super eventually it will hit 12% and I call it a tax, it will collect 6% MORE of GDP vs 1995 IN TAX than we did.

USA minus 2% .... every one of 47 nations I looked at same thing higher tax collections .... Austrlaia plus 6% ... that 8% different v GDP and not one leader has the ball to call the USA out on this. The size of the issue is not 10 trillion the USA spent on the GFC, with healthcare costing3-4 times in promises the size of the bloody pensions, this next one for the USA after 14 years of Bush and Obama and Bush's tax cuts for the rich of 2002-03 still basically in place .... they have 14 years of NON collection of about 6% of GDP to make up. Not a chance.

I will end on this note. Dr Martin Luther King, he passed away nearly 50 years ago. A great man, a man of equality and one who was proceeded by many other great men both African American and white who abolished the terrible practices of slavery and inequality.

Dr King famously had a dream. Sadly its NOT what he thought. In 1968 the USA minimum wage was DOUBLE what it is in real terms Right now in 2014. Some USA workers, and mainly Hispanic and African Americans in some cases have been on the same wage for 20 years. In the past 6 years 30 million MORE Americans collect food stamps. The Median Wage has fallen in real terms I think by 25% in 15 years, officially its only 15.7%. I am sure Dr King did not even have a nightmare this bad. I am sure he would have been proud as he should have been that the First African American President was elected, but saddened by what is reality right now. It is NOT the rich white Bureaucrats or mainly white CEO's or Investment bankers who will pay the price. Sadly its mainly the non whites who will be on the $193- a week pension Mr Greenspan, Bernanke Yellen, Mr LEw Mr PAulson the ex Ceo of Goldmans MR Rubin another ex USA treasury secretary and ex CEO of Goldmans, or the likes of Elemndorf already at Bookings funded by Carlyle and Goldman Sachs and now Yellens husband as a Carlyle and Goldman's funded institution ...

I am not sure what Dr Martin Luther King would be thinking right now.

Sadly and with great regret, the REMOVAL of the leg as the USA has no other choice but to make corporates PAY tax over there ... for me the catalyst is in place. I remain convinced we see the USA market HALVE. Only time will tell.

Stay long if thats your thing. Ours sadly will follow the USA ... despite NONE or few of these issues.

Take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Oct 12 2014, 12:15 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Ho Hum,

my weird predictions from last year, the USA unemployment rate went even further than I thought. Now at 5.9% and YEllen very clearly has no intention of ever raising USA rates.


Meanwhile USA tax collection slips, corporate tax at half the level of 2000. The rich paying HALF the rate they did 30 years ago in the USA. It all looks fine for NOW for a simple reason ... the USA instead of paying CPI plus 2% overall for its debt as it did for the 1950-2000 period, it now pays 0.85% on average via these zero rates. The US fed purchased every long bond issued in the last 5 years and funds the 3% they get at ZERO or 0.25% in their case. They give treasury the money and hence the NET interest paid is lowest ever seen and by that I mean in 6,000 years.

Its quite different for the EU with inflation at 0.4% v the USA at 2.2% of course in some cases their bonds are well below the USA, inflation is BELOW the USA. Even Italy and Spain NOW have rates below the USA for 10 year bonds as I suggested in 2013 when I was ridiculing predictions of some of the Media commentators and economic people ... I gave 15 or more of my own so they could ridicule me if needed. Some ... of course incorrect. The USA marekt kept going and we all know why BOND rates are DOWN not up, and the USA marlet went UP not down. ZERO rates forever of course and this was evident early 2014 when the USA market was still 1,810 on the S+P 500.

From here ? well its a nothing correction right now. NOTHING. Even Janet and her fed minutes coming out and basically spelling it out for the dumb the USA will not raise rates ever .... only saw a 2% jump in the S+P on the day which was erased as the week went on.

Bottom lines here. We are in the final stages of total fiscal collapse. Make no mistae about it. NONE.

A leg has been removed from the table and the reason for the decline is NOT what any comments I have seen but for another reason. The USA has enabled its multinationals to STEAL off other nations for many years. Apple in 2013 had its sales in Australia at 6 billion. it paid 40 million in tax. Looking at the 2013 annual return sales of 170 billion profit pre tax of 50 billion and YES on the face of it tax was set aside at 26% .... and NPAT 37 billion. it was SET ASIDE ,,,,, but NOT paid.

The profit margin ..... pre tax was 30% in the Apple company. So in Australia we pay 120% even 130% for Apple products. Taking the GST off the profit margin in Australia was not 30% which the parent overall had ... BUT 40%. So on 6 billion sales clearly admitted here the Apple corporation stole STOLE from Australia alone in 2014 a whopping amount. Tax rate 30/% on 2.4 billion is 720 million NOT 40 million they paid. APPLE stole 680 million from Australia in a single year.

TIME FOR MR HOCKEY and Abbot ... to grow some balls.

LIke every other developed nation the USa based multinationals via USA tax laws are being raped.

This article is WRONG .... read it but the scope of the tax rip off is WRONG for Apple.

Last year sales in the USA were 62 billion of 170 billion global. It put a 26% tax PUT ASIDE ,,,, not paid ... globally. In Australia it paid tax on its profits at less than 2%. It is able to do this and SET aside a fictional amount of tax, never paid, against some chance that somewhere in the future it brings NON USA profits back to the USA. It enables it to rip off Japan, UK, Germany, all 30 EU nations and the only one that matters ... AUSTRALIA.

I suggest MR HOCKEY sends Apple a bill for the missing 680 million for 2013, plus 100% penalty and he reverses the TAX law where the burden of proof is concerned. That is Apple MUST PROVE it paid correct tax in Australia.

Transfer pricing laws and diverting tax to offshore tax havens IS ILLEGAL and always has been illegal in Australia. It is time for the whitless dumb wits we call the Australian treasurer to tell the likes of Apple where they can stick their Iphone 6. It better not only be waterproof but water resistant.

What most if not all commentators have missed is post G20 in Cairns the number one topic was this tax inversion, tax theft and all agreed even the USA about changing it.

I note the likes of Forbes in the USA complaining the USA corporate tax rate at 35% is too high. They FAILED to mention that USA collected 13.22 % of tax off corporate profits in 2013. That is down from 27% in 2000. Mr Bush and his actions post 2001 opened the door and this rape has intensified as USA based multi nationals rape the rest of the world behind the USA tax code. NO MORE.

EU and its 30 nations are debating closing the likes of these cretins DOWN. they cannot afford it. Outright theft.

How about Australia send Apple a tax bill for the 3 billion they have avoided in taxes the last decade by wharehousing their profits into Ireland. then add 100% penalty and of course REVERSE the legal onus of proof for TAX cases which involve outright TRANSFER pricing violation on a grand scale.

This is one single company which has raped a little nation like Australia for 3 billion over the last 10 years. One cannot even conceive that on one hand head office has sales of 6 billion in Australia, has a profit margin of 30% gloablly but since Astrlai pays 110% of the price, Apple is saying to the Australian tax office it made only 2% or so profit margin on sales NOT 40% when one can clearly see via head office annual returns the company made .... QUITE CLEARLY ... Globally a margin of 30% on sales.

When one goes to Japan or the UK or Germany, for their Apple Subsidiaries same story. Some nation sin the EU seem to have NEVER made a profit selling apple profits when head office has declared a profit margin of 25% on average each year for the last 10 years. Since the rest of the world makes up 66% of sales .... it was not enough for Mr Jobs to invent a great product. it was not enough for him to become rightly so a billionaire. He richly deserved that for his inventions and his teams inventions. No the late Mr Jobs gets the all time needy greedy award. It was not enough, he also came up with a brilliant tax scheme to rape and pillage everyone outside the USA.

Mr Jobs is gone. Sadly the USA tax system and code enabled him to do it. Other nations lacked the balls to even enforce their own tax laws in the face of this THEFT. Corporate theft paid for by lobbyists in Washington who changed the USa tax code and the USA seriously did not give a rats arse about what the theft did to Japans budget or the 30 EU nations.

The USA had to act in 2014, because even this theft from NON USA based companies was extending to their own soil and 500 billion or 3% of GDP in tax revenue had disappeared from the USA. We had multinationals moving to low tax centers but operating 99% inside the USA. Nothing like the Needy greedy.

We have two sides to this. USA is the main cause of this globally. For Australia I would suggest about 2% of GDP is missing via a long list of tax dodgers. The Swiss based miner who paid ZERO taxes on profits here but declared a massive profit in Switzerland and paid 8.5% tax there and NONE here is just one example. Great for the enablers like the Swiss, they get 8.5% for nothing or Ireland and its hapless tax deal. Very very bad for nations struggling with an over 65 population which will rise from 10% in the 1950-2000 period to 30% by 2050.

USA of course is even in denial of this. There over 65's will never rise above 19.7%. How ? the hapless MR Lew who destroyed Citibank as the COO and in charge of risk management is NOW the USA treasury secretary. He is a lawyer and in also the head of the Social security system. Unbelievable the man who makes Nic Leeson at Barings and his trading fiasco look actually GOOD the COO who presided over a loss 500 times Nic Leesons is the USA treasury secretary in 2014.

Nothing like jobs for the boys. All comes down to the connections and Carlye and Goldman Sachs and investment banks. its amzing to see Mr BErnanke at a funded Goldmans think tank ... also Carlye and funny thing is no one in the USA will comment about it but head office, I joke about Goldman Sachs ... but they sadly are evil along with all these needy greedy ... I find none other than Janet Yellens husband age 74 and an economist from the Fama camp who never see's bubbles, and despite his advanced age and doddering nature he has scored a job where ? At another Funded institution that boasts the MD of Goldman Sachs on its board along with the MD of Carlyle the worlds largest private company who was behind George W bush seniors election and behind Juniors as well. This is where Yellens husband now resides as of next month !!

All a coincidence of course.

Back to tax. EU is in the process of changing laws to stop the theft of 2% of GDP via tax.

For Australia the Swiss mining giant that shipped 30 billion in resources yet paid NOT a cent in tax, send them also a bill for about 5 billion.

I am very much in favour of an outright resource rent tax. the resources are finite and NOT just this generations. Of the miners complain, tough luck. Even BHP and RIO engage in these transfer pricing moves. We find a machine being used to mine in WA is owned by some sub that is owned by another sub, a tax haven which is owned by another, which eventually ends up in another sub, so no tax office can follow the leads, and the tax paid, near zero is by a sub in say the Antarctic for a machine operating in Western Australia pilbira and the machine in Australia operates costing 10 million in Australia LOSS and the profit ends up eventually like Apple in a tax haven where the profit is booked without tax.

This has got out of hand. For the USA sadly its 150% the size its costing most other nations. Most like Australia I suspect 2% of GDP cost, USA its up to 3%. Its part of what has driven apparent earnings in the USA, the big part of the magical act is that wen your paying 15% LESS for tax NPAT rises 15% but when its THEFT, and I don't give a stuff how many numbnuts newspapers say its legal, as someone with accounting and post grad accounting degree's the tax law in Australia is VERY clear on this but just not enforceable due to hiding behind secrecy laws, political dimwits, even DUAL TAXING laws.

When Australia signed these laws, little did they thing the USA would via paid lobbyists make tax loopholes for USA based corporates to actually deliberate STEAL and avoid taxes earn t on overseas earnings form the nations they are earn t in.

Bottom line, the USA and the lobbyists and George W Bush passing these laws made it LEGAL for USA based companies to steal and NOT pay tax to nations they operated in> Whether it be Japan and sales of Apple there are many times that of Australia, but I think they Subsidiary there lost money some years !!! LOST ...meanwhile Ireland Apple office which warehoused the profits made billions.

ENOUGH.. Time for MR ABBOT to become a leader and GROW SOME BALLS.

Just go, sorry xxx from Switzerland you stole 30 billion in resources, paid no tax, here is a bill with interest. If they dont like it, get nicked.

Resources are finite and China and every nation acts in their own interests. Australia is a treasure trove of them and for 40 years the gas deposits off the coast of WA sat undeveloped. They were commercial in 1980 even 1990 the NWS, North west Shelf was deveoped then, but they decided to sit and sit and sit. Until they were told either use it or loose it. Time to impose a flat 5% export levy on all resource products and put it in a fund. NO TOUCHING via the goverment. 1% of the fund to be spent each year and the fund is targeted to make CPI plus 3% so itss GROW for future use.

As to the tax cretins .... If they wish to do business here, PAY THE TAX. Mr Jobs whom I admired, I now think of as a disgrace of a human being. USA enabled USA based multinationals to deliberately avoid paying tax in nations the USA calls its friends. Well I say GET NICKED USA.

Grow some balls AUSTRALIA !!

I have NO issue with the rich, no issue with corporates. But if your required to pay 30% on profits, and YES I understand a fool only pays too much tax, but if you pay 2% that is theft. If one of your closest allies has deliberately allowed or enabled this theft ? Grow some balls Mr Hockey. As for the Swiss, stuff them> As to others hiding in other tax havens ... time to reverse the LAW and the company HAS to prove it has paid the correct amount of tax. In the case of the USA bases multinationals not just APPLE but ones from banks to other manufacturers to Google and Yahoo to GE the worst of the bunch, having your product made in China or Taiwan and then ON-SOLD via a tax haven which keeps 90% of the profits and in most cases, there are no operations there, its a bloody joke.

THis is being hotly debated in the EU for those who missed it. its been debated in Japan. Its time for Australia to go, GET stuffed to all these cretins. As to the resource rent tax ALL going into a fund. the resources are Finite and its been proven now that the Overseas multinationals are raping Australia's assets at will. Its is a disgrace for that Swiss based one to make what clearly is 10 billion profits and NOT pay a bloody cent to Australia.

Whilst the resource companies MAY cry, making HALF the 5% royalty tax deductible but making them COMPLY with Australian tax law will lead to I am sure a lot of crying on their part. Reason being they have been STEALING for so long they are NOT even aware of what is theft and what is NOT.

Since the world now has 7.3 billion people v 2 billion a hundred years ago, the demand for these SCARCE resources is NOT going to go away. If you want it, they will pay. If the Same happens like the Shell and Exxon and Chevron sitting on 100 years of Australian energy needs on the offshore KNOWN gas deposits off the coast of WA discovered in 1960's and 1970's and NOW 50 years latter they are only developing due to the fact that Australia said correctly USE it or loose it. I believe that the very same policy should be devolved for the future. If some multinational claims its uneconomic to produce as these cretins did and Australia in the 2000 to 2014 period became a Massive net energy importer and our currency NEARLY went off the edge in 2003, this time, if they don't use it .... they bloody well should loose the mining leases.

I would like on whats going to be 300 billion of RESOURCES exported, mineral or energy, 5% flat rate set aside into a fund much like Norway did. In the next 100 years, the resources will be GONE and since whilst we are here NOW I would prefer that in 100 years time we have a fund that has 3/4/5 times the GDP of the nation in real terms in it for the benefit of all. This would make I suspect scholarships to university for 25,000 a year and free healthcare for the poor a reality !! Instead of what will look like the surface of the moon in 100 years and all the money GONE and spent. In that 100 years ass the fund grows and grows and spends 1% of the 2.5% over CPI it makes, it grows in real terms but the 1% of a fund with 5 times the GDP of the nation can do a hell of a lot of good for the nation in the very long term.

Instead Mr Abbot, Hockey and of course others, we are being raped by USA based multinationals, by Swiss based ones and instead of being the lucky country we have the thumb print of the USA on our heads amongst the other tax havens who enable this behavior.

As to resources, they are FINITE and does it make sense to produce ONLY when the COST or production is OVER the the SPOT metal price. They are FINITE. The demand with 7.3 billion and likely rising to 9 billion people is NOT going to go away. When you have around HALF of this total. HALF under the age of 25, JUST LIKE INDIA. Do you really think its wise to produce at say for Iron Ore at cost plus $20 ? When its NOT about to go away the demand longer term. Marginal producers go out of business or so we are told but there is also a COST that should be applied for NON RENEWABLE resources.

Free trade and all that is a crock. Manufacturing moves to where the unit cost is lowest. Only people like Yellen or imbeciles don't know this. So how does one in the USA compete with $2- an hour in Mexico ? YOU DON'T. Thats why imports have doubled post 2000. same for China but they are 250% the size. As a result, USA manufacturing post 1985 has lost 60% of its workers !!
I am sick of being politically correct. I am sick of as a nation being stolen from. We are NOT alone in this tax theft, tax inversion, some nations like us are being caused even more harm.

If my proposal makes us a pariah of the world, SO BE IT. It will not as the EU is moving as quick as it can to close this tax theft !! Time for us to act FIRST.

As to resources. if you think it makes sense to sell a NON renewable resource for a profit margin of 20% when you can likely get 100% your an IDIOT. If you sell something and spend the benefits FOR NO return, something irreplaceable does it make you any wiser.

Australia and every nation developed in the G20 has played by the rules to some extent. We have as a result being trodden on, stolen from, violated and dismissed. NO MORE. USA doesn't give a toss about anyone other than the G1. If the USA based multinationals pay ZERO tax to the USA's friends its NOT their concern. But even this was not enough for the USA based corporates, they are now doing it to the USA and in increasing numbers.

The sad fact is 13.22% tax v a 35% headline rate is a joke. Its even more a joke a 27% collection of tax in 2000 v 13.22% in 2014.

The USA via paying ZERO on a debt of 110% of GDP and overall 0.86% v 2.2% CPI inflation is the lowest rate I have ever seen anywhere other than WW2 where USA with the wealth spread they got nationalistic and War Bonds were sold. In 2014 the Japanese fund 4 trillion of it, China has about the same in USD, which the 13 trillion debt still in public hands when you subtract 8 from it and look at other nations holdings of reserves ... well lets all bend over again. Historically its cost CPI plus 2% to fund a deficit. Now in post 2000 times for the USA at least, the cost is CPI minus 1.35%.

The only reason the USA budget has NOT exploded is via Yellens declaration and ownership of 3.3 trillion in bonds which she hands the USA treasury 79 billion a year for. So in effect the USA pays 3% less than normal federally for its debt. That's 3% of GDP that makes things look rosier. Sadly it is already going out the window. Spain can borrow cheaper than the USA. If as I suspect we see asset price deflation like 1929, the USA will like then in 1929 see the dollar value of the GDP fall. It nearly HALVED in the 1929-33 period. So the debt at 17.4 trillion will remain the same but the underlying SIZE of the economy will be hit by not only NEGATIVE GDP growth but DEFLATION the double whammy.

Such is life in the future. When inflation is MINUS 5% and rates are still at ZERO, the COST is PLUS 5% above inflation. Meanwhile income plummets.

Sorry rambling .... wake up AUSTRALIA and act first. I really stopped caring what the USA thought about us a long time ago. Bush enacted this law via pressure from lobbyists and his corporate backers who put him there. Obama the same. Send the likes of Apple that 5 billion tax bill with penalties and then interest on top. I don't care !!

Why does Mr Hockey ? Or Mr Abbot ? Its not anti American, I mentioned the Swiss, and there are a long list of other havens. I even mentioned companies that we think of mistakenly as Australian ... they are NOT.

I a PRO Australia. I am pro business also. I am very happy to have the rich. I am not happy like in the USA with some person on 5 million paying 18% tax and someone on $120,000- paying 30%. I think the USA are idiots and now controlled by lobbyists and uber rich. If Walmart makes 15 billion in the USA, pays 3 billion in tax, but their employee's on an average wage of $18,000- HALF what it was in real terms v 1970 levels, if their employees the largest recipients of food stamps and welfare in most states cost the public purse 30 billion when the parent pays 3 billion in tax, one can see the idiotic state the USA is in.

Its about the needs of the NEEDY GREEDY there. Time to stop the rape and pillage across the borders and I am very happy to welcome the great Apple products here if they just stop stealing 700 million in unpaid taxes as they did in 2013 !!

Off the soapbox ... GROW SOME BALLS AUSTRALIA.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Sep 29 2014, 02:53 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Opinions vary,

whilst I was wrong on the USA side at 1,810- I was well aware, 100% aware when Yellen indicated via actions at the US fed early 2014 and the S+P index was STILL at 1,810- I was talking f the 2000-2040 level on the S+P. I chose NOT to chase the index.

So peak I gave up 12% on the USA side and funny thng got most of it back our side as parking my money in a bond that rose 15% and paid me 5-6% to do it.

But yep I hear you all.

My magical act and the things which if OUR marekt in Australia rose 71% from here we would be at the same level at the USA at somewhere over the 9,2000 mark on the ASX 200. We are 5,295. THe low GFC wise was 3,074 ish ...

The low in the USA for the S+P 500 was 666 and its hit 2,000- PLUS a level 3 times that.

TO be plain and obvious about this, the 2007 peak I was OUT ... and held most of my cash till late 20008 and early 2009 the LOWS and buying DOUBLE the amount of shares quite often in the same company. BHP whilst not a massive hold for me, I hated it at $50- it hit $20- at the lows, the banks were smoking craters. Some companies pre GFC I hated and LIKED post GFC but they were ones which had the hell beaten out of them. FMG has been my main trading stock post GFC.

This thread is about cycles and since the USA leads most equity values I follow their markets very closely. Whilst I have no real issue with the levels of Australian stocks other than some of the miners who have had a hell of a time along with low grade Iron ore stocks and even the bigger ones. If the USA corrects and its 171% of ours now, we will follow.

One could say that a lot of the EU and UK is priced closer to the USA v Our own dismal post GFC recovery.

The very simple reasons for this are contained in the magical act. Biggest of all is interest rates. FOr 6,000 years, money was only lent at ABOVE inflation, NOT the CPI but cost of living so for the 100 years 1900 to 2000, the cash rate in the USA was CPI plus 1.24% so about 0.25% above the COST OF LIVING inflation rate as that is about 1% above the CPI.

This is the main driving force finance wise in investing. Also in pricing RISK. So here in 2014 we have the USA claiming 4.6% GROWTH GDP wise about 8 times Australia, an unemployment rate of 6.2% the same as here and very similar inflation CPI at 2.2%. Big difference is that in Australia cash is 2.5% and USA ZERO. it belies 6,000 years of money lending. It belies logic and only an idiot lends money below inflation and guarantee's getting Less money back in real terms. This policy only exists via Japan and China both holding around 4 trillion each in US assets and as such the USA with a deficit of 17.6 trillion well over the 100% of GDP number is able to borrow and fund the debt at levels that are 2-3% LESS than they should be.

EU has an inflation rate of .5% and FALLING so their zero rates, whilst YES negative in real terms their unemployment remains stubbornly stuck at 11%, HALF of the EU is either in recession or close to it, Italy about the worst of the big ones.

So we have monetary policy in the USA set to inflate asset prices for NO REASON other than for the owners of said assets. When the rich and top 20% of the USA owns 91.7% of all assets, and the remaining 80% own a mere 8.3% you should be able to see a policy which is there with the sole goal to stimulate these prices and admitted unashamedly by the US fed, because they beliueve it will create jobs is silly. To date despite this policy working like a charm the reality is that despite the USA reporting 6.2% unemployment the REAL number is 4.5-5% higher. They just remove people after 6 months when their unemployment benifits run out and the participation rate in the USA has fallen to 30 year lows. NO SUCH move is evident in any other nation.

For now, USA federally enjoys NOT paying 2-3% more by having rates where they should be. Even worse the US fed has over 3 trillion of long bonds with yields of 2.5-3% it purchased and is running the worlds largest cash and carry trade.This profit goes to USA treasury and last year 79 billion despite the fact end of 2013 the bonds were 155 billion under water. Yellen just declared zero rates forever. Cant change her policy at the behest of investment banks and other self interest groups.

Corporates are able to borrow in the USA at ALL time lows, ones never seen in whole history of the nation. As such the borrowings costing corporates 2=3% less infalte earnings. they are real, but if oneis NOT a dummy they actually remeber the terror of 2000 or 2007 as these very same corporates very nearly went out of business. For some, they did. But here in 2014 there is NO RISK, not in the USA. For savers desperate for a return above inflation they in the USA are bening held to ransom, either buy bonds at all time LOW Yields and or buy stoks at 3 times the lows of 2009. The GFC never happened.

Meanwhile Janet Yellen will NEVER see a bubble nor will or did Bernanke or Greenspan. Bernake back from his 3 million dollar speaking trip to investment banks, now has his 2 million dollar job for life at Brookings funded by head offices Goldman Sachs, Carlyle the worlds largest private company with a lot of interest in the arms industry in the USa and Brookings also funded by a hedge fund. Yellen is worse than Bernanke and she did not see a problem pre GFC with her being the San Fran Fed chief and prices TRIPLING pre GFC over 10 years, nor does she see the prices right now being 140% of the GFC peak. Not a bubble in sight.

Demograhics meets the fiscal side in the USA with their main pension fund, a fund 80 million Americans will utterly rrely upon for an income post retirmeent, one thats been running for 80 years called Social Security. In 1900 we live till we were 50. In 2014 to 80 at birth. These are facts. The USA instead ofm having 250-300% of GDP of the nation in the fund say 45-50 trillion has a mere 2 trillion in it. Even worse an associated fund run by the criminally and fiscally insane Treasury Secretary Mr Lew under guidance from head offcie at Goldman Sachs has bankrupted the disability pension fund via his criminal activities and estimates which are also confirmed via other budget offcies also inhabited via the Fiscally insane. So they plan to raid a fund with 5% of what it should have and still claim some how they can afford to pay pensions in the future ?

Another factg is that for the 1950-2000 period the USA had about 10% of the popualtion over age 65. Its now 14%, Mr Lew, Crimkinally insane and fiscally insane and incompetant estiamtes that cost of medical funding and paying pensions will NEVER rise for the USA as a percentage of GDP. He among the G20 and even G40 memebrs has this view. USA like every other nation via the simple extension of life expectancy will see the numbers over age 65 go from 10% to NEAR 30%. But no the USA claims its level will never rise above 19.7% EVER. When Germany hits 34% over age 65 in 2045 or Japan in 2055 at 38% I know Mr LEw and his cronies from yellen to greenspan to Bernanke will no longer be around. In the meantime if this ponzi scheme lasts till 2025 as Yellen has now declared zero rates forever and as such pension funds desperate for returns and underfunded EVERY WHERE in the USA are going to go under in a never ending stram as time goes on. Its NOT possible to get a return on a balanced fund when your bening paid MINUS 3% in real terms for cash and 2% or 3% less for bonds than you should be. As most balanced funds hold around 40-45% in these two asset classes Yellen in her total ignorance has created a mess from which longer term there is NO Return.

On the Pensions, it gets worse. In the USA its legal for USA companies on one had if their a bank to call their pension fund part of their capital. Thats their employee's pension plans; On the other hand its also legal for them to underfund them to where they should be/ USA companies and their greedy CDEO's since 2003 have done exacly that and the USA S+P 500 pension plans stand at 71.3% funded and a shortfall of 1.73 trillion v 2003 where they were 103% funded. This has boosted the EPS on paper and NPAT on paper but the reality is oncd any fund falls under 70% funded and half of them are there already, its virtually impossible to correct it without about 20% of all income paid in for 15-20 years. Just the underfunding number represents 100% of one years profits.

All these factors have been reverse engineered by head office at the investment banks who run the scheme. CEO's are paid via the shares performance, Investmant banks and Banks in the USA usually a mix of a normal bank and an investment one are happy as well.

But if you remove any of these from apparent earnings the NUMBER halves.

Now one of the very crucial aspects of the magical act or PONZI scheme was the fact in the USA companies are paying tax in 2013 at 13.22% of earnings v 27% in 2000. Its basically HALVED the tax paid and in the meantime the fiscal side is missing aout 350 billion a year. Some of this is via Tax inversion sending yur headquarters to some tax haven, most is done via THEFT enabled by the USA tax laws which see the likes of Apple booking massive profits in Ireland on sales hat occur in the UK, EU Australia even Japan and also the USA.

I was after a catalyst, and whilst the fiscal outlook for the USA is DIABOLICAL, they have deftly swept it under the carpet that looks like Mount Everest. The Catalyst is NOW here. As per normal it will take time, but none the less when the USA with a headline rate of 35% for companies collected a mere 13.22% in 2013 the JOKE is up. Inversion deals already gone make it likely it falls to 12%. BUt NO MORE. Mr Lew went back and declared it now illegal for USA companies to hide there.

The only real topic at the G20 finance ministers meeting was TAX Theft, formally known as TAX inversion. All G 20 members agreed to share tax returns, even the G40 did. So a company like Apple who sold 27 billion of goods in Australia the last 10 years and head offcie booked a profit margin on sales of 25% but goods sold in Austrlaia were sold at 120% of the USA price so taking off GST the profit margin was clearly 35% and Apple deemd to pay Austrlaia a sum of 193 million in tax on what is 9.45 billion in prfits. the profit instead of being paid here at 30% tax and 2.83 billion paid in tax was shipped to Ireland and paid at 5%. Australia lost 2.6 billion in revenue from one single company. I might add sales in Japan of Apple products dwarfed our own and some EU nations Apple subsidiary's have NEVER made a profit whilst head office amassed 300 billion in cash.

ITS OVER. NOT TODAY, not tomorrow but over time the GAME IS UP. Each nation is facing a fiscal outlook like never before for a simple reason that they will have to support 3 times as many over the age of 65. USA and the criminal Mr LEw or any of his cohorts denies this and by 2050 claims a ratio of over 65's LOWER than the two largest birth rate developed nations, Ireland and Iceland. He is sadly insane or corrupt or whatever you wish to call him. So too all offices of the US fed and the whole bureaucracy of the USA. If you deny something which is a fact and well know one in 180 of the G181 nations but the G1 is in denial, it enables them NOT to charge tax for an event that is 100% assured. Its all about the needy greedy and they couldn't give a rats for the 80 million of over 65's in the USA by 2040. Its about NOW and that new IPO for a junk company worse than the 2000 dot com mania that gets oversubscribed 5 times as people are desperate for any return however fleeting.

My own opinion now that Austrlaia is able to get Apple Irelands tax records in fukll is that we should send them a ta bill for 5 billion with the 100% penalty in there PLUS interest. Tax theft is still theft. Transfer pricing is theft under Austrlaian tax law. What happnes is the lovely Apple product is made in Taiwan for $200- then on paper warehoused in some tax haven where the selling price becomes $600- so the Apple office in say Germany selling for $700- makes nothing and meanwhile the tax haven the tax paid at 5% is much better than 30%.

THis however is at an END. Over the next few years the tax collected will dramatically alter and as such EPS, Earnings when your paying 10-15% MORE in tax as they always should be, this is the USA listed multinationals will hit earnings like a sledgehammer. As for the other parts of the magical act ? I dont expect Yellen to raise rates till hell freezes over. I don't expect teh USA to want to pay any interest on its 17.6 trillion. I do however see with record corporate borrowings right now as they buy back their own shares much to the CEO's glee as they are paid off the share price, instead of generating more activity these low rates YES have seen some improvment in EPS, NONE of it from anything other than hot air. We will not pay our employee's pensions and ignore that. We will pay HALF priced tax and rip off every nation we can including head office. On one hand those who did not wish to do it are actually compelled to do the same. If your compeditor is paying tax at 50% his earnings are well abvoe your own and as such unless the CEO's do the same their PAY and eventually their job is LOST. If you borrow on your current cashflow, a fictional one where your not paying 10% into pensions, paying 15% less tax, and then with the borrowings at all time low cost you buy back your shares, your earnings appear to go UP. Remove the BS .... they really dont.

But for now, the table only has 2 legs !! One was removed at the G20 and whilst it may take some time, feathers would fly if Australia grew a set and sent Apple a tax bill for 5 billion for tax avoidance and so did virtually all of the other G20 nations treated like schmucks over the last 10 years.

Bottom line USA is likely loosing 2-3% of its GD in tax revenue each year. Australia a lot lower. USA I might add is NOT the whole problem but its about 70% of it. Other tax havens happy to offer tax at 8.5% like Switzerland for companies like the mining one operating in Australia which shipped 30 billion of resources at 25% margins and LOST money here on paper. Of course that only occurred in their minds as head offcie declared a massive profit. What occurred was of course the finance for the new mine in Australia, head office raised it at 3% but they charged Australian 100% owned subsidiary 13% for the finance and as such they STOLE not just the tax on 7.5 billion profits about 2 billion, they in effect stole the whole 30 billion worth of resources. Of course the Swiss are laughing all the way to the banks and whilst only collecting 8.5% tax they dont have the mine on their soil and get 700 million more tax for nothing !! Of course the Swiss will not share their tax records with us and this practice has to be erased. Goverments cannot afford it any longer. Its already covered under Australin tax law.

What should occur is the ONUS of proof in any court case for a company operating illegally under a tax haven should be REVERSED. That is the company in question hiding behind Swiss or some other havens secrecy laws should be the one that has to prove it did not steal. IN most of these cases its very obvious when head offcie even in Switzerland declares record profits and the Australian one declares, NO we have nothing to declare, the tax office should just send them a bill. If they DONT like it ... they can get stuffed.

Anyhow enough of a ramble. Was wondering if the media picked it up post G20 meeting but NOPE. Mr Lew went back home and on day one back the USA Treasury secretary declared it illegal for any more tax inversion deals. All of it as per usual about USA self interests. Well as an Australian and likely missing 2.5 billion EACH YEAR in tax revenue from USA based multiantionals on the main but other cretins operating from the Caymans or Switzerland, I suggest the FLIP the onus of proof for companies operating from tax havens in relation to payment of tax in Austrlaia. If they dont like it, go away !! Seriously. USA enable this and we as a good friend have bent over and taken it. USA now realising its own corporate tax system at 13.22% tax collected v 35% tax rate is in collapse and has been for 8 years is acting. What Mr Lew will find is that what is occurring to Australia or Japan or Germany or the UK in the case of say Apple which appears fairly clear, I strongly suspect looking at head offices annual returns and despite being on paper a USA based company they are doing the exact same to the USA itself.

Australia must act for itself.

Lastly I might add I am a very strong supporter of Australia introducing a blanket 5% Tax on all resource exports. That is Mineral and energy. they are finite resources and NOT ours but every Australians both this generation and FUTURE ones. Once they are gone, they are gone. Norway a small country did this with their own oil reserves and now boasts free healthcare and free Uni. In 2000 we exported 40 million tons of iron ore, now its 800 million tons. Eventually these will run out and we will be left witha lunar landscape. I would like something set aside for future generations as we go on. Exports of Commodities , NOt the replaceable ones like Agriculture or fishing but Mining will with the LNG exports hit 300 billion very soon. Putting aside 15 billion into a fund and it retturnings say 3% over CPI spending 1% of that each year but increasing it by 1% over time in 100 years will see 3 trillion or so. of the income, I would like the Aboriginals to get 10% of it to make things better for them and build hospitals or grant full scholarships or whatever it takes.

India has banned some resource exports, Indonesia is doing the same, China itself is doing similar things. Its time to stop tax theft and I feel violated by the actions of the Swiss mining parasite in Australia.

Off my soap box now. Make no mistake Tax inversion and theft is nearing an end. How does a company with record borrowings cope with 15% less income ? Or god forbid they have to fund their pensions and to repair the damage in the USA it will take 15-20% of all income for a very long time to do so. Whilst RISK is gone, this is a reverse engineered Ponzi scheme by smart arse investment banks and paid for USA bureaucrats and politicians themselves. RISK is at ZERO in the USA yet they just lost 15% of income and are assured 100% to loose another 15-20% .

Take care
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Sep 17 2014, 11:28 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


Been silent for a while.

Well when I drew my line in the sand at 1,810- on the S+P 500, I like many join the hysterical bears camp. For me I was well aware that in January 2014 when Yellen declared she would not raise rates, not raise rates at even 6.5% unemployment or at any level of employment, the sad fact is she NEVER will raise rates to a normal level.

Its great for her employers, the investment banks, the banks and the rich, but it does do one thing or a hell of a lot of them.

I was resigned despite sounding stupid at 1,800 talking of a 2,000- S+P we have been there and all fueled by zero rates.

USA GDP growth if one believes the latest print is 8 times Australia. We both have identical unemployment rates and CPI if again you believe the USA side. Difference being our rates at 2.5% and the USA will sit at zero till hell freezes over.

Too many vested interest there and for the goverment in 2000 paying 6.2% on its debt vs the official cost in 2014 of 2% is one. If one takes OFF the 79 billion the Fed paid the USA treasury their cost of funds is under 1% !!

As some of my other weirdo predictions late 2013 one about USA unemployment falling to near 6% again is also true and whilst there is some HOT AIR in the media about Yellen wanting some consensus, she was the architect and most vocal supporter of low rates under Bernanke so don't expect anything to happen anytime soon. It will eventually.

One cannot cripple two investment classes without massive distortions and destruction of others. Cash deposits and Bonds are returning the lowest levels in 6,000- years. Anyone saving is having their savings in the USA destroyed in real terms via a normal holding of a balanced portfolio holding 40% or so of cash and bonds. Its too late to join the band wagon and the gate already closed in about 2009 on these forms of investments.

What however it has done is destroyed totally USA pensions savings vs a demographic time bomb as the life increase from someone in 1900 living till age 50 and even in 1947 only till age 55, ots Now 80. USA knows this as does every other antion on the planet. SO if life expectancy rose 25 years between say 1947 and 1960 and the percenatge of people over age 65 was around 10% for most of the 1947-2000 period only rising slighly at the end, where will this hit ?

NEVER for the USA. In reality as someone born 1947 retires age 65 in 2012 the baby boomers hit in such a massive way IN EVERY nation over the next 20-30 years, but the USA and their criminal economic numbers and estimates its now 14% over age 65 and never rises above 19.7% ever. Japan by 2055 will hit 38% over age 65, Germany 34.5%. So if yoiu have a budget prepared with a lie and a fable in it, where the hell does it take hold ?

I have no idea.

Making matters even worse, companies on the S+P 500 just hit 1.76 trillion underfunded for their employees pensions. Thats 100% of a full years profits. Even if the decided to contribute, something that is illegal NOT to do in 140 out of 141 nations, they would need to devote around 15% of all income to keep up and repair the damage over a 20 year period.

Again an aside.

USA budget numbers came out and last year debt increased by 1 trillion, but officially the USA budget deficit only went up 580 billion. As to the unfunded contingent liabilities. Again using absurd and I mean absurd estimates it was in 2013 a sum of 211 trillion. I am please to announce that officially in 2013 this unfunded side ... one that claims payments for old age pensions or healthcare WILL NOT RISE as a percentage of GDP despite even their insane prediction the number sonly rise 50% v a reality of 100%, in 2013 how much did the USA unfunded side rise ?

11.6 trillion.

that's 66.6666% of the GDP of the USA.

The official number is well over 10 times the GDP of the USA. A realistic estimate and being honest about costs and obligations I suspect the contingent liabilities are in fact 50-75 trillion MORE than these estimates.

But for now, its all to be ignored. The disability pension fund Mr Lew estimated would last till 2024 in 2012, its now going broke in 2016, actually 2015.

But yep lets all rally. I find it surreal to say the least, as Burger King moves its head office to Canada, saves a billion in tax, McDonald's is thinking of buying a hot dog vendor in Switzerland and paying a mere 8.5% tax there vs the headline rate of 35% in the USA. Of course neither of these two pay even close to that sum. Nothing like having to buy your paper product from some tax haven at 5 times cost and the tax haven which doesn't even have a Burger King Store racks up a massive profit to the benifit of the shareholders.

Fed released another statistic or series of them on share ownership over the last week in the USA. In terms of direct ownership of shares it has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years at 14%. What amazed me was the rest, the top 10% of people, of them 93.3% have direct ownership. Going back the other way, it means the 90% REST of America only 5% of them OWN any shares directly.

That to me is stunning.

In terms of indirect or direct ownership either via pension funds or anything else, we have 48.4% of Americans with ownership. Funny thing is that the top 20% have a 95% ownership of shares either directly or indirectly. So the next 10% almost without fail have great holdings of pension plans or whatever. Again going back the other way, of the 80% of adults left only 29% of them seem to have some form of a pension plan. There have been studies on this and for the lower 60% they seem to have $30,000- in retirement savings as an average and the bottom 20% virtually none.

I cant change facts. Fact is we live till we are 80, or if we hit 65 likely we live till age 85. USA has a plan, kind of like Martin Luther King and his "I have a Dream" well the plan is to erode the pensions run by the goverment and take them from $20,000- a year as they were in 1995 and now in 2014 at $15,000- but take them to hell at $10,000- a year. This years adjustment for cost of living was 1%, CPI is 2.2% in the USA and cost of living which is higher is around 3%. So by 2035 they will have 85 million over 65 Americans on $193- a week and for the lower 80%, their accumulated savings will last maybe 2-3 years to compensate. Those sadly in the bottom 40% will enjoy I am sure 20 years in poverty.

Lucky Billy Bob and Sue Ellen like many Americans have their gun collection. Billy Bob a vietnam Vet and working for the city .... pick one ... Chicago, Detroit, New York, is about to also take a haircut on his other pension as its going broke thanks to Yellen and her policy of zero rates forever.

All of this actually is for the benefit of whom ? If the people outside the top 20% hold less than 3% of the total share equitiy I am actually scratching my head and counting my blessings I live in Australia. Ownership here is actually one of the best spreads in the world with the lower 80% owning 40% of the assets. One is of course 10 times the other.

But for now, Janet will deny it all. She believes her policy will work when the fact is that well over 90% of all the wealth is owned by the top 10% in the USA.

Strange world. Nothing new other than the new budget numbers which were shocking ... but no one cares. Whomever gets the next presidency is in for one hell of a ride. This is an issue that DWARVES any GFC one. The GFC in reality did about 15 trillion worth of damage, that to be blunt is about how much the promises which NEVER be paid for will go up in the USA next year.

I do have some thoughts on tax inversion and the whole thing but ... with rates at zero forever, its really a wank watching the USA markets for now. IF you use an internal rate of return of 10% any cash-flow beyond 20 years is worthless. If you use one at 5% its still has massive value. If your stupid enough to use one below 8% .... and say at 2%, some mythical cash-flow in year 50 is still worth over 30%. It basically cases exponential valuations if allowed. Of course only an idiot does this, but Janet is an idiot.

It is similar to the pre GFC commodity boom. Many thought oil would fall after its initial rise. Sadly since not much new production had been implemented for 20 years and OPEC was able to swamp the market, the cost of new wells was basically under estimated. Other side, Idiot analysts at brokers estiamted either way too high prices for the commodity going forward, but worse was the ones which still had a $20- barrel of oil as it hit $100-. The new production cost and still costs about $60- a barrel and with a profit margin for RISK that means they need a $85- barrel of oil spot price to go ahead. Same goes for all the other commodities. What was missing was the new production costs were estimated at insane and absurd LOW levels and quite often the cost turned out to be 3 times what these idiots thought.

I do wonder, since no one really cares in the USA other than the top 20% do they go more insane ? I sadly think not. The fact that underfunded pension plans need serious cash in the next 2-3 years and for the next 20 years will shave profits. The Tax inversion has to end, nations everywhere cannot afford to have corporates using tax havens ad NOT paying any bloody tax. In Austrlaia its not a massive issue but still 1.5% or so of GDP is missing from goverment revenues. In the USA its 2.25% and to top that off another 2% is missing in income tax from the UBER rich. Whilst they are paying record amounts, its the percentage that matters and paying 8-10% LESS tax is insane if you wish to ever have a hope of caring for your elderly.

Enough rambling from me .... as I come across more and more facts, the story changes and eventually there is of course only one fiscal outcome for the USA. Australia, UK even the EU at a 40% tax to GDP v USA at a mere 27% says one part of it. Australia with a very young Super scheme, less than 25 years old has 130% of GDP in savings, USA with one 80 years old the Social Security one has 15% of GDP. In effect BOTH are there to do the same thing, provide income for elderly. By the time the elderly become a massive issue I suspect super savings In Australia will be 250-300% of GDP, USA its hitting now and apparently its not an issue.

THE long term future for this scam is clear, in the meantime where or what the USA does is the question ? A doubling of the minimum wage in 2015 would be a start. its been at $7.25 for nearly 25 years !! Stop and make Tax inversion illegal another one and get rid of the tax breaks in the USA for the rich. None of them likely as the goverment is elected by these people in the USA, the very rich or the corporates and Billy Bob and his Wife are the furthermost thing from their minds. YEllen has to stop killing two forms of investment because if one does that and goes against 6,000- years of the history of money and penalize people for lending and give them ZERO return for saving and force them into a ponzi scheme ... well 1929 didn't even have HALF these factors to deal with. Just an absurd overvaluation. Schillers CAPE index is at 1929 levels, if one MADE corporates pay correct tax, not avoid it in the USA, pay superannuation and have to pay 2-3% MORE to borrow as the RISK is greater than they are paying, the profits would HALVE .

The CAPE index would be DOUBLE where it is. Since Goldman Sachs designed this mess via Paulson and his Goldmans staff at USA Treasury and Lew with again the same staff or similar, how does a CAPE index at 57 sound like when the peak in 1929 on the cape index was a mere 32 ... NOT 54. Again a fact, USA corporates are paying tax at 13.22% vs 27% in 2000. The underfunding of their pension plans is criminal but legal ....

Take care

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 28 2014, 02:31 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


Just getting ready for the S+P 500 party ... the 2,000- party ... I am filling my dance card and Janet Yellen followed by Madeline Albright followed by the Tech Bull from 2000 Abbey Cohen Jospeh and I will be wearing my NASDAQ 5,000- party hat from 2000.

Funny all three are short, look like the Penguin out of Batman.

Next party is the DOW 20,000- for late 2015 and early 2016 its hoped I can attend the NEXT NASDAQ 5,000- party.

Do I sound cynical ?

Sorry but again writing a bloody novel for all the good it will do.

Cant give two hoots anymore about the USA. Whilst Livas your correct Yellen has NOT officially declared zero forever ... getting rates back to NORMAL which is CPI plus 1.1% so 3.25% when yellen says maybe in 2015 I raise rates by 0.25% then wait and see will take about 30 years to get there.

In the meantime EU is having serious issues and I suspect its all from the same issue. Do you wonder what it could be ? The Austerity packages there are biting, GDP slowing to near zero, inflation near zero and something seems to be missing with all of this.

One is the relocation of manufacturing to China or Vietnam or wherever, but there is a growing and massive problem that no one wishes to address and eventually likely it will spell some seroius times for all of us.

I hate being negative and for many years post GFC I loved things, our market it was at times impossible to get people to buy TLS sub $3- or ANZ sub $20- or NAB sub $25- and a long list of others, now ... well they have done what most of them should have.

Denial I suppose is what is going on. if Australia was the single nation on the planet I really have not too much of an issue with our equities here. Correct tax on the main is being paid, correct savings for retirement being paid, not too large debt NET sub 20%, interest rates at or about inflation whilst a little low ... given the rest of the world we are the big bears.

As such our equities need to rise 60% to catch the USA. USA you don't need to fund your pensions, can pay half priced tax, and there is no such group as baby boomers.

I sadly just worked another thing out which is actually strangling the world not just the USA but its nice to stand back and go they are nuts and its all about them. Sadly its also about society on the planet, not just one nation. If its legal to do it there and its being done everywhere, it still does not make it right. Confused ? So am I.

Writing ... so as to make it clearer, not that it matters. Zero forever for USA ... USA ...USA ....

I cant wiat for those dances Janet .... you Minx !!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 26 2014, 01:20 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Janet Yellen Declares Zero Interest rates FOREVER.

As the S+P 500 almost breaches the 2,000- level v a low of 666 in 2009, Janet Yellen has now declared ZERO interest rates forever.

She sees no problem with Stock Prices 3 times the 2009 levels.

Having received instructions from Ben Bernanke after his 3 million dollar speaking tour to Investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs and now settled in his million dollar job for life at the Brookings Institute which is funded by Goldman Sachs, Ben Bernanke has decreed rates are to stay at zero forever.

This is much needed to further inflate asset prices and create profits for the investment banks to fund all their external employee's.

In a separate announcement, Jacob Lew a lawyer, Now USA treasury Secretary and chief trustee of the Social Security pension scheme, Disability pensions and Government pensions, ex right hand man of Ex CEO of Goldman Sachs at Citibank, Rubin, Lew has declared anyone NOT paying into their employee's superannuation fund will NOT face any prosecution. This announcement comes as the S+P 500 pension plans hit a new low of 71% funded and 1.73 trillion underfunded from a 103% funding in 2003. USA corporates will no longer have to bother. This 1.73 trillion is actually 100% of all profits declared by the group after tax in 2013.

Mr Lew has also decreed via instructions from head office, Goldman Sachs, any holders of cash in the USA will be punished forever. With inflation CPI at 2% and cost of living inflation around 3%, all holders of any cash will be paid zero forever. Mr Lew is also proposing to make it illegal to hold any cash in the USA.

Ms Yellen not to be outdone has decreed that you can lend to her, for a long term bond at 1% for 30 years and with likely cost of living inflation at 3% or more over that term she will give you back in real terms about 40% of your money. Of course by then all holdings of cash in the USA will be totally illegal and it will be confiscated.

This leaves you one choice, one choice only. Buy the S+P at 3 times the level it was not so long ago.

Mr Jacob Lew not the same age as Yellen and needing a speaking tour after his term in office has declared NO tax for any employee of any investment banks. He deemed their service to be in the national interest and as such all income from them to be tax free.

Yellen countered and announced plans to stone anyone who questions her rule. Any person questioning USA economic releases or policy is to be branded un-American and sent to Cuba.

Meanwhile President Obama was seen outside Walmart with a Tin Cup after Donations from the Walton Family who employs 1.4 million Americans on around $16,000- a year. Walmart declared 15 billion net profits and promised not to move overseas for tax reasons because its fulltime employee's were the recipients of over 30 billion in federal welfare. In most states in the USA the largest group on food stamps are the Walmart employee's followed by some of the fast food chains. Makes sense, said Obama they are doing a great job paying tax at 13% on 15 billion and Welfare payments to employees top 30 billion in 2014.

Meanwhile Bridgewater who did a study and announced that 85% of all public pension plans would go bankrupt in 30 years, in the wake of Yellen's decision to utterly destroy returns on two asset classes, Cash and Bonds, revised its estimates to 95% collapsing and 65% of them by 2025. Mr Jacob Lew the genius at Social Security and Treasury declared that Disability Pension scheme which was estimated in 2012 to last till 2024 will go broke in 2016, and a closer look its actually 2015.

Sadly all media coverage has been banned. Like when the S+P downgraded USA's credit ratings, Bridgewater is under investigation by FBI, Homeland Security and even mentions of ties to ISIS have been mentioned.

Strange world when you can't sort facts from fictions. One fact is that in 1900 we lived till age 50, in 2014 its around 80. This is a 60% increase. This is denied by Mr Lew at both treasury and Social Security and derided as an un American plot by ISIS the new bogey man !!

Mr Lew reiterates his numbers tell him the USA and its over 65 population now at 14.7% will NEVER go above 19.7% not ever and even better paying for healthcare and the sad fact that if your over 65 you are more likely to be disabled will not see ANY increase in spending NOT EVER. As a percentage of GDP neither will rise despite the over 65 population doubling in 15 years. Asked about Japan he denied they had any people over age 65 and despite the real number being 26.7% in 2014, Mr Lew claimed it was a myth and it was due to their complexion that it appeared they were over 65.

Mr Lew speaking from his office called it all an Imperial Plot by Ukrainian sympathisers backed by Boris. Is that Boris from the Bull-winkle show ?

Sadly, Yellen has declared war and returns in the USA on two key asset classes are to continue forever being destroyed. Those saving for pensions, don't worry in the USA as its now not illegal for your employer to do nothing. You will be fine on $150- a week and since you only earn $300- a week you should be able to save and make up the rest was the comment from both Yellen and Lew and Mr Elmendorf at the CBO office.

In breaking news, Mr Obama has been arrested for public nuisance begging in front of several Walmart stores for the upcoming 2016 elections. He had to be protected from workers inside who eventually recognised him and wished to complain about their $8- an hour wage and the fact that they only get 1 weeks holiday paid a year. Mr Obama's protection detail from the Secret Service were not to be found as they were told by Mr Lew their pensions like all others would be taking a 60% haircut.

Nope not a thing wrong with the USA. Being blackmailed or given little choice to get any return but to buy assets that are 2-3 times the 2009 levels and all is well !! Whoops here are the marines at my doorstep with a 5th class ticket to Cuba.

Enjoy the rally.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 14 2014, 04:39 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


Sorry writing another book trying to get the latest factors into it.

Of course mainly about USA but as we all know they sneeze and we catch Ebola.

Most recent statistics on the joke side, retail sales awful but of course the marekt rallies as rates never will be raised. Weird thing is as I said with the GDP number and awful same store sales and the GDP claiming some consumer led recovery totally destroyed by actual companies and their slaes and now this retail sales number.

Do I expect them to revise the estimate of 4% GDP growth down as a result ? Of course not, likely its revised UP despite the factual evidence it has NO relationship with reality.

My favorite one on the economic front was the study in the USA by Bridgewater which estimated that 85% of all public pension funds in the USA go broke in the next 30 years. I actually have a higher number because when you have to sell off the little assets they have to pay pensions, it makes any investing longer term likely a negative asset price scenario. They did their study on 4% GAINS over time and whilst of course possible its unlikely.

For me, the sticking point is the sad fact that several asset classes are paying LESS than they should as a result of Yellens zero interest rates. In this I mean getting zero for a 2 year term deposit is some sort of a deal ? Or being paid 2-3% less on bonds again a woeful deal. On top of this asset prices for commercial properties which really never went down in the GFC at all time record highs again are paying about 3% less than they were even in 2007 as a result of again ZERO interest rates. So we have on one hand the returns at record lows and the prices at record highs.

On the corporate pension funds. As I mentioned in 2003 they were funded at 103% and despite record asset prices in 2014 they hit 71% funded last month. I suspect strongly even at 4% investment returns that about 60% of them will fail or the members take a haircut. In the meantime Janet Yellen allows USA banks and their underfunded pension funds to be counted as part of their capital and as such its just under 300 billion they didn't have to raise and dilute shareholders EPS.

All this focus on the USA is really a drag, our pensions despite some politically motivated hot air out of Costello the head of the Future fund, the fact is contributions for federal employees were raised and benefits slashed and his number of 200 billion shortfall vs the 100 billion future fund is about as accurate as some of the GDP calls out of the USA. None of this of course was taken into account when he created this number. Also the raising of the actual retirement age to 67, NOT in his calculations and the likely raising to age 70 which will be flowed onto these employee's without a doubt ... again of course ignored. If you raise contributions by 33% as they have lower the paid retirment pension from likely 20 years to 15 years or 25%, Mr Costello actually tried saying the contingent liablity did not move even though at present the age is a mere 67, he chose to use age 65.

Politics and politically motivated hot air in Australia makes me sick, but at least its not as bad as the USA where the plan is to pay people $10,000- a year Social security or $193- a week. Since the baby boomers are also the ones who went to Vietnam and the others who protested against it, its going to be interesting to watch.

Back with another ... long one ... just trying to make sense of this serious state of denial.

In the meantime the EU numbers are NOT flash and in reality neither are the USA ones but we have staged a recover after the mini correction. Heads you lose tails I win, or a bad number and the market goes up as rates will be zero forever, and if its a good number it rallies as its good for the economy and market.

Interesting times.

Back with a novel .... not much new just shorter than the whole Magical act with some of the new factors being revealed as time goes along incorporated with it. Pensions and Tax inversion and a few other goodies.

I am just scratching my head as always at the state of affairs. Record highs, rel estate, junk bonds prior to the sell-off, house prices in 9 states and 22 USA cities, stock market all time highs and not a bubble in sight.

Take care

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 8 2014, 03:30 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


watching with fascination ... didn't get around to finishing that longer post.

EU numbers are looking ill. heard some UK idiot saying a QE is needed there. Since their bond rates are very very low impacts will be a waste of time. Spending and lowering rates more for EU not an option and Russian Embargo will hurt a bit. Italy now again in recession and the unemployment rate stays stuck around 11.5%.

Our participation rate 2007-2014 has not moved as with most nations and EU ones. USA chose to move its down to HIDE the fact that its unemployment is NOT in reality getting better, so removing them from being counted, removing 4% from participation of being willing to work because their 6 months unemployment benefits have run out is one of the strangest statistical buggerings I have ever seen. Since the 4% is a fraction of a fraction its taken over 5% off the headline USA unemployment numbers. Despite the rosy reporting ... things are not what they seem.

Our market today much weaker after USA announced it will send planes to Iraq. tension over Russia and the outcome there very clear.

In the meantime some diabolical changes possibly to USA tax laws being debated. Underfunding of virtually all pension plans in the USA reached new highs and the latest is New York City and despite putting in 11% of all income the fund went backwards vs where it should be. Once a fund gets below 70% its hard no matter what you do to fix it. when I look at say Social security the biggest funded at 5% it becomes a joke. For the EU, yes they are short as are most funds but with increased contributions and lower payouts and even raising the age of being able to claim the EU is moving in the right direction vs virtually all public and private pensions in the USA.

When one has the S+P 500 and their pension plans underfunded 1.74 trillion or one full years profit AFTER tax and this is 71% funded overall and we have companies avoiding tax via locating operations in the Cayman Islands, if this is removed, they are forced to actually fund, the NPAT will collapse and by this I mean paying 13-15% MORE tax will reduce NPAT by that and then just actually funding the pensions, NOT making the deficit back, just funding them correctly will remove another 10% and this is just the tip of the ice berg.

But for now, the markets NOT really down. As my usual gripe is ... there is little or no respect for Risk. We are 5% off all time highs for the USA and if the threat of the USA actually collecting the correct amount of tax from USA corporates happens all hell will break loose. Less cash to pay the record amounts of debt issued. Less to actually make up the shortfall in Pension funds they run for their employee's.

Strange world where the USA Fed actually allows banks to count the employee's pension fund as an asset and in some cases they are massive at 30-40 billion and the banks do not have to raise capital as a result, but on the flip side, they are NOT required to count the fact for some the shortfall in the pension fund is 10 billion plus.

For now, ho hum. Small correction as things go and will have to see where the dust settles on this one.

EU however ... the numbers suck, the Russian bans on goods will hurt and I am not suggesting this is the start of anything despite the news, the markets just keep going up and for the USA its a diet of no bad news and with rates at zero, every man and his dog bullish ... any sell-off in the past has been reversed in short order.

have a good weekend

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Aug 1 2014, 11:35 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


Yep I thought that, but the fact Merill eventually is NOW long made me think the other way. Could of course be either of them.

My own view is that in 2013, SUD did a roadshow in the USA and it seems to me some people bought some serious amounts of stock, one was in and out within months ... but instead of buying for the clients it to me seems they borrowed the shares vs buying them in a bull marekt and just waited till the dust settled.

Of course, only people who know are the Investment bank weenies who are behind this of course.

On the markets .... again await NON FARMS tonight in the USA And as per normal I yawn. The numbers are actually meaningless when more are removed after 6 months off work.

I noted with amusement last night 50 companies in the USA reported in the wake of the USA BLS reporting GDP grew by 4% in early 2014 off the back of consumer sales and investments, well the profit numbers overall SUCKED which again leads me to actually question where the hell they get these numbers from. When you have consumer driven companies reporting FLAT sales and falling profits it does not lead to 4% GDP growth other than in the USA reporting style.

Whilst this fall is really NOTHING ... and its been years since the USA shed even 8% in a correction ... years ... there are more and more from the funds side joining my views on things that all is NOT what it appears.

This time, unlike the NASDAQ or GFC one is hard pressed to point to the obvious and go this will be the catalyst. Low interest rates is number one, second is the NON taxing of UBER rich in the USA and companies paying half priced tax. On top of this non funding of pensions, fiscal nightmares for the baby boomers in the USA and a long list of other things just like PRE GFC all under the carpet but the carpet is oozing a smell that is awful and the color of it is PUKE.

The catalyst last night was Santanter, Banco Santander and its woeful balance sheet and write off. That was not helped at all by poor profit numbers and as the day in the USA went on they did not get better.

More than likey, a rosy non farms will do the trick ... or not. The GDP number was so full of hot air that even the mildest of economists is actually questioning the number. If it was correct and GDP was 4% ... why are rates at ZERO in the USA if Unemployment is really 6.3% ?

My suspicion for the non farm payroll number is another robust one. Problem this time of year is the seasonal factor with Summer in full swing it clouds the numbers working when seasonally adjusted. More than 1.5 million people on break from college and school get those USA summer holidays and distort things to hell if your trying to hide something. My special call for tonight is that the participation rate in the midst of this will be adjusted again. not an obvious one as more people will be working as they do every year in the USA in summer but I suspect you will find the non adjusted participation rate will move LESS or not at all compared to other years and as such the headline unemployment rate will fall again. Amazing what happens when your removed from being counted after 6 months as unemployed.

As to the plans here to punish those on $240- a week unemployment and make them get 40 job applications a month, basically 2 a day, also work for the dole half the time is how Mr Abbott is reminding me more and more of the USA. I don't disagree with making people look for jobs, even work for those long term unemployed to restore some self esteem, but its a bit onerous to face up and apply for 2 jobs a day every day.

This of course policitally the last issue that should be of a concenr. The CO-Payments for doctors has virtually all elderly up in amrs. Plans for those NOW age 65 to have their pensions indexed and the family home to be asset tested has all the rest annoyed. Talk about the worng stuff .... Superannuation in Australia for someone aged 65 NOW only started when they were 45 and as such the level of savings in their super accounts even if they worked to age 65 was less than half what someone would have starting work in 2014. The initial Super rate in 1996 I believe was 4% rising to 8% by 2000. So they have a mere 14 years at 8% vs what will likely be someone working for 40 years and paying in at 12% or 480% of their salary over time vs 112% by those now aged 65.

This issue is one the USA is ignoring and I think not understood by the goverment today is that yes, people in 2030 when they retire should be expected to more support themselves vs the Government due to super savings, but doing it NOW ? even threatening i to people 65 or 70 is NOT something voters and especially elderly ones will like or do like. This is the battle USA is about to face and its done nothing but ignore the issue and has no savings or actual plans for the elderly. When you have the top 5% owning more than the lower 95% of people and things controlled by them its no bloody wonder nothing seems to change in the USA.

Eventually like all things, it will. Time sadly is the enemy of this ponzi scheme in every sense.

Have fun

back over the weekend

Cheers Mark
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jul 31 2014, 02:53 PM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754

Hi Mercury,


No idea what they are doing with SUDS. I am still dirty at these clowns who took over Hardman Oil via proxy and not reporting substantial interest as they are required to do. basically when over 5% every 1% that it changes they have to inform the ASX. Turned out they had a lot more than anyone thought possible warehoused I think in their London and a couple of months latter, surprise surprise surprise Tullow oil takes over Hardman.

As to this one, SUDS, I can see any sane reason why they would be borrowing shares. Cant see any reason why they would be doing it on a quick look even with this amount of shares and the borrowed amount its still less than 10%. nothing to be gained so am lost like you as to why ? Could they have been long, sold out and still have the borrowing on their books ? Could they be playing the other way around, driving the price down to buy it ? With the borrowed shares they can and will play both sides of the coin.

Yep looking back I find as per normal with these wankers ... they borrow 24 million shares back in 2013, price goes UP, they don't like that so armed with 24 million borrowed shares .. they can hit the market and lower it at will .... they eventually buy some in March 2013 at 6.2 cents much lower than it was late November 2013.

usual rules ....

I would think that's what has gone on.
May be wrong, someone else can have a look but its what appears to have occurred.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Posted on: Jul 31 2014, 11:13 AM

Group: Member
Posts: 2,754


Writing another novel … well not that bad but some other factors to take into account of this magical act.

As to GDP, was pleased this time they used the correct inflation number at 2% for the deflator. As to the 4% growth number ? It came from increased spending and retail sales. As someone who follows a long list of USA retailers I was frankly amazed at this report. They are reporting flat to falling sales and THAT is not adjusted for inflation, yet here we have it another magical report. It is very much like the report late 2013 which again had a massive spike in GDP but that time it was from manufacturers and when the said manufacturers reported, the car ones reports were shocking both on manufacturing and on sales. So where these mythical numbers come from post 2002 is becoming more and more amazing to me at least.

I also note the previous USA GDP reports back to 1999 were revised DOWN. What happened last year is magically the toal GDP in dollar terms for the USA was revised UP about 6% to account for the missing inflation NOT reported in the 2004-2008 period.

What I ask myself is if the USA has actually GDP growth at 4% and CPI at 2% and Unemployment at 6.3%, if these were real, or even close to real, why are interest rates at ZERO ? Obviously these numbers are not real and as I have said the Unemployment situation in reality is much worse in the USA about 4% higher than reported before they removed all those not counted after unemployment benefits run out when your 6 months out of work.

Bulls ? Well last quarter GDP was a shocker and it rallied. This number was revised up from Minus 2.9% to Minus 2.1% and the headline number came in at 4% for this quarter. As per usual good number, or bad number it rallied. The rally did stall as people are going WHAT the ? In relation to the US feds policy. At some stage of course rates will rise but not until Janet Yellen is 90 which is in 3-4 years. Amazing what Botox can do.