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Gold, Discussion
early birds
post Posted: May 6 2019, 09:07 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 6 2019, 07:16 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders-bra...iff-threat.html

Mick
will see gold jump up with this news????

 
mullokintyre
post Posted: May 6 2019, 07:16 AM
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Chuck Butler, in his inimitable style, has called a bottom in the PM market.
From his daily Pfenning email


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The GATA folks sent me a note yesterday explaining why they believe the COT is telling them the bottom is in for Gold & Silver… Let’s listen to a short piece from the GATA folks… “These positions are reported weekly in the CoT (Commitment of Traders) report issued by COMEX. Followers of this report have seen instances of the Managed Money long positions turning to or near short (or at least ‘bottoming’) and the Commercials short positions nearing nil or even long (or at least ‘bottoming’) preceding substantial market rallies.”
You don’t have to be a Technical guru, or someone who is very aware of the COT reports, all you have to do is to stop and listen to people that see these things for what they are, and that is a rally in Gold & Silver is coming… Is the bottom in? That’s difficult to say, but I would think that given this info, that the bottom if not in, is near an end… I’m just saying!


I love Chucks wriiting, but he has been calling for the PM's to rocket forever.
One day he will be right.

Mick





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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 30 2019, 12:50 PM
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Aus is about to enter a gold production recession according to S & P global Market intelligence.
from ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Australia is on the edge of a "production cliff" and could slip from second to fourth on a list of the world's biggest gold producing nations by 2024, mining analysts have warned.


A research analyst says Australia's biggest gold mines are getting older and not enough new discoveries are being made to replace them
He predicts global gold production will be in decline from 2022
The CEO of the Perth Mint says a significant fall in Australian gold production is highly unlikely
Behind only China, Australia's gold mines will produce an estimated 10.7 million ounces this year — the equivalent of about $19.2 billion worth of the precious metal.
But analysts predict Canada and Russia will overtake Australia, with production to fall more than 40 per cent to 6.3 million ounces over the next five years.
With the Australian dollar gold price trading near historic highs of about $1,820 an ounce, that could potentially represent about $8 billion in lost production.
Ageing mines 'running out of gold'
Canadian research analyst Chris Galbraith, of S&P Global Market Intelligence, said Australia's biggest gold mines were getting older and not enough new discoveries were being made to replace them.
"Those have been great mines, they've had excellent lives, but nevertheless all good things must eventually come to a close and they are running out of gold," Mr Galbraith said.
Global gold output has increased 40 per cent since 2008, with production hitting 107.3 million ounces last year.
A new record high of 109.6 million ounces is expected to be reached this year, with China contributing just under 12 million ounces.
Research dismissed by Perth Mint
Most of Australia's miners send their gold to Perth Mint for refining — about 350 tonnes of gold every year.
Perth Mint CEO Richard Hayes said a significant fall in Australian gold production was highly unlikely.
"Every year I go to conferences where I see people putting up graphs which show a production cliff, where all of a sudden in the next year or two or three, there's a massive drop off," Mr Hayes said.

In the quarter of a century since I've been here I certainly haven't seen any evidence of any of those predictions ever coming true.
"Australia is the second largest producer of gold and has the world's largest known gold reserves, so I would be very, very surprised if there's this production cliff we're all going to fall off in five years' time."


That's the problem with predictions, some people just won't believe them!.


Mick





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nipper
post Posted: Mar 29 2019, 09:39 AM
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QUOTE
Most idiots have an 80/20 portfolio (80% stocks/20% bonds) or a 90/10 portfolio or even a portfolio that is 100% stocks. I have been making the case for a portfolio that is 35% stocks and 65% bonds. Historically (over the last 20 years), that portfolio has been giving you a little less return, with a lot less risk. In hedge fund terms, you would say that it has a better “Sharpe Ratio.”

I have been experimenting with variations on the 35/65 portfolio recently, with some incredible results. For example, a 35/55/10 portfolio (35% stocks, 55% bonds, 10% commodities) has even better risk/return characteristics. And if you have a fundamental view that commodities are underpriced, terrific.

But wait, there’s more. How about a 35/55/3/3/4 portfolio? That’s 35% stocks, 55% bonds, 3% broad commodities, 3% gold, and 4% REITs. If you think about what this is, it’s a stock/bond portfolio with a really good inflation hedge.

Want to know the risk/return of that portfolio? It gives you almost the return of the 80/20 portfolio with half the risk.

And it’s mostly because of the gold. Add gold to any portfolio (including gold mining equities) and the risk characteristics improve. In the old days, the miners used to be negatively correlated with the broad stock market. That isn’t quite true anymore, but the correlation is very low.

The 80/20 portfolio is ridiculous, with an insane amount of volatility. The main reason financial advisors put people in this portfolio is because of FOMO—they are afraid that if they put a client in a more conservative portfolio, that client will fire them in two years after watching all their friends make more money.
Jarad Dillian - The 10th Man



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: tombeet  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 5 2019, 12:58 PM
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Record production... 371 tonnes last year

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/03/05/oz-...21-year-record/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
denpal
post Posted: Jan 4 2019, 06:13 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 3 2019, 05:37 AM

Yes it is at an all time high in AUD. XGD has done amazingly in the last month. Surely we consolidate now. My main hold is NST as for the last few years, also added EVN last year and there are a few others too like SAR doing very well.


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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 05:37 AM
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Gold is now up over 10% i past 30 days (in AUD terms that is , which is kinda important her in OZ).



Mick





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KianJ
post Posted: Nov 16 2018, 06:56 PM
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Chart for gold using parallel trendlines.Price action pushing back over the main trendline would be bullish indeed.Until then I remain on the sidelines.



 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 16 2018, 06:17 PM
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$gold $xau back on the bid, constructive lift (trendy)



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
jacsar
post Posted: Oct 19 2018, 02:53 AM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BFj7-eKU9M .... interesting little story

 
 


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