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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 30 2013, 02:20 PM


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Posts: 1,598

I'm glad you're keeping tabs on it, Diana, and are able to fill me in. I still own my shares but I stopped paying attention to the details long ago. I came to the conclusion that Biosilicon was useless, or even a fraud, so I'm surprised and pleased to hear that it might come good yet.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 30 2013, 01:57 PM


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Hi Diana. Not much happening with PSD, er, PVA, these days.
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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 30 2013, 01:55 PM


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Agreed. The banks are all that interest me at present.
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 24 2009, 10:07 AM


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Good morning.
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Pessimist
Posted on: Dec 5 2008, 09:16 AM


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Anadis is now named Immuron, ASX code IMC.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Nov 20 2008, 12:32 PM


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In reply to: chiller on Thursday 20/11/08 06:11am

The company has come out swinging in response.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 8 2008, 11:40 AM


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The share price has really collapsed. Hard to know if it's PVA related or just the global meltdown.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jul 31 2008, 09:57 AM


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In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 31/07/08 08:39am

Hi wolverine. Funny you should mention that. I'm just listening to Robert Gottliebsen on the radio saying how much better the bank scrutinized everything in Don Argus's day.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jul 31 2008, 08:31 AM


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John Stewart resigns.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jul 18 2008, 12:26 PM


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Has some kid bought one share with his pocket money?

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 20 2008, 09:50 AM


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In reply to: dom on Friday 20/06/08 09:14am

Last night's announcement possibly answers your question. pSivida Ltd is to be deregistered at the end of today, and trading in PVA on a normal settlement basis starts on 25 June. I guess our PSD will become PVA by then.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 13 2008, 12:08 PM


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In reply to: DRUGGIST on Friday 13/06/08 11:59am

My guess is when holders have their PSD shares converted to PVA shares. As of this morning my holdings show no change. Don't know if that's the same for everyone, but if it is then there are no PVA shares to trade. Is PVA actually suspended from trading? I didn't think so.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 13 2008, 11:14 AM


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In reply to: mercury on Friday 13/06/08 11:05am

The first-named investor is Babcock & Brown European Infrastructure Fund, which at least sounds like it's owned by B & B.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 13 2008, 10:58 AM


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Strange time to be buying another asset - trains this time. Can they even afford a train set?

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 13 2008, 08:52 AM


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Up 20% to $3.80 on Nasdaq overnight. Only 2000 volume though.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: May 13 2008, 09:36 AM


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1.31 WBC shares for every SGB share.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 18 2008, 02:12 PM


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So that equates to a new share price of about $3 on both the ASX and Nasdaq, with about 18 million shares on issue and about 10 million options outstanding (with omegaoil's options still worthless - the only upside).

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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 19 2008, 02:43 PM


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In reply to: rbcrawford on Wednesday 19/03/08 12:29pm

The market never takes any notice of these briefings. Even in the PSD's good ol' days they didn't make any difference. Don't worry about it.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 19 2008, 09:30 AM


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QUOTE (rbcrawford @ Wednesday 19/03/08 08:58am)

Yes, that's surprising. I hope it's not because they are running out of ideas for the CDS technology and have to return to BS (sorry, Biosilicon) as a last resort.

The one consolation in the low share price is that omegaoil's options are still worthless.

Pess

P.S. I guess I'm going to be scolded by HM again for being such a sourpuss.
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 18 2008, 11:04 AM


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In reply to: xmas on Tuesday 18/03/08 09:21am

No, that won't work. If a $200 million deal with Pfizer can't move the share price (except down), then another won't help.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 17 2008, 11:01 AM


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In reply to: diana on Monday 17/03/08 10:20am

QUOTE
Brachysil is a drug delivery procedure using biosilicon.

No, there aren't drugs involved with Brachysil. It only delivers P32, which just sits in the silicon and decays and zaps cancer cells from a distance. Biosilicon drug delivery requires the silicon to dissolve and release the trapped drug, a totally different process. That's what I think they never got to work.

I don't see anything on the horizon that's going to generate the sort of cash that will lift the share price unless the 20% of Medidur is enough, or the Pfizer deal comes through in a big way. Reliable annual revenue from product sales is what PSD needs.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 17 2008, 10:05 AM


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In reply to: diana on Monday 17/03/08 09:46am

I didn't think Pfizer had anything to do with Brachysil. I have lost a lot of confidence in Brachysil since the liver cancer trials stalled and were hardly mentioned again. Also, I don't think pancreatic cancer is a big market. I've written off all Biosilicon products as likely failures. Remember Biosilicon drug delivery? That was PSD's core focus and its reason for being for a long time, but it never even got as far as a preliminary trial. They obviously never got it to work.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 17 2008, 09:34 AM


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QUOTE (diana @ Monday 17/03/08 09:06am)

Okay, no debt, but selling off the farm, which long-term is probably as bad. The sell-down is not 30% but 60%, since they are going from a 50% share to a lousy 20%. What's the point of developing these things if you have to off-load them just to stay afloat before you can make money on them? Medidur was the big hope for PSD. PSD needed Alimera but Alimera didn't need PSD, so it's not hard to guess who got the better end of the deal. If Medidur takes off, Alimera will laugh all the way to the bank where they deposit the sales proceeds from their higher stake.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 17 2008, 09:00 AM


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QUOTE (diana @ Friday 14/03/08 12:44pm)

Doesn't sound too yummy to me. Non-dilutionary means debt, and nothing has been worse for PSD than those convertible notes, and nothing has been as incomprehensible to shareholders as all the rules and red tape attached to them.

rb, I believe that buffett is wrong, unless he has info that I've never heard of. AFAIK, Carlyle's exposure to PSD has only been indirectly through their part interest in Qineteq (which Buffett has confused with Christopher Skase's Quintex), and Qinetiq's two shareholdings are in plain view in the top 10, as they've always been, not hidden in the nominees. Carylye might have to sell its Qinetiq stake, but I don't see why Qinetiq should have to sell its PSD stake.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 11 2008, 02:43 PM


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Trading has resumed at last. Not much action or depth yet, but the single trade was a rise.

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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 11 2008, 10:46 AM


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In reply to: 1Bradymichael on Sunday 09/03/08 06:55am

Still here, Mike. There's just not much to say about PSD these days. The Hillary/Obama race is a lot more interesting right now.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 11 2008, 10:22 AM


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Today's update actually manages to make the recent disaster look like a good thing. Apparently, everything is rosy now, but how much is spin and how much is fact, and are we really going to get out of this without significant dilution? Still no sign of when trading will resume.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Feb 8 2008, 02:18 PM


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In reply to: rbcrawford on Friday 08/02/08 12:28pm

I've seen these rallies too many times before. I don't expect it to amount to anything.

I wonder if Pfizer will deliver that January payment before the end of February.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Feb 6 2008, 09:42 AM


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Halted on Monday and now suspended from official quotation. I see some large bids above the current SP, so maybe something good is in the wind. I'm not counting on it, though. I would have otherwise guessed a capital raising, which is often the reason for a halt. I guess no one has heard anything.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Feb 4 2008, 09:17 AM


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The first Q&A on today's online finance forum on the ABC website:
Q. is it all over for erg?
Gavin Ross: Maybe. The cancellation of the Sydney contract is a disaster for ERG. We have to wait a company announcement.

http://www2b.abc.net.au/tmb/Client/Message...2147&ps=20&dm=2
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jan 22 2008, 12:36 PM


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In reply to: david_j_c on Monday 21/01/08 08:49am

I'm surprised it's worth anything at all.

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Pessimist
Posted on: Jan 15 2008, 11:20 AM


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QUOTE (triage @ Monday 14/01/08 04:04pm)

I think Dr Jenkins was mostly referring to the past share price performance and the reasons for it, such as poor Travelan sales. He didn't really indicate much about the future, good or bad. He probably knew that I and every other shareholder there was pretty disappointed with how things had been going and was letting us know that he was too. The only reason he'd have been very optimistic was if he'd known some great deal was in the works and likely to succeed, and even then he'd have to be careful because of insider issues. Such deals don't happen often and you can't assume that the lack of one means a poor future for the company. Also, he's a scientist and not a salesman. He was just having a chat to a couple of shareholders who were there and I don't think it occurred to him to try to talk up the company's prospects. He might also have surmised that we wouldn't really be in the mood to hear how good things are going to be. I think he's just hoping, like the rest of us, that the new CEO's plans will deliver success, but I couldn't say from the conversation that he was actually pessimistic about that.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jan 14 2008, 11:18 AM


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QUOTE (triage @ Saturday 12/01/08 10:14pm)

I spoke to Dr Jenkins at the AGM during the munchies period afterwards. He was quite candid that these are troubled times and there was no BS about a blue-sky future. It wasn't a conversation you'd leave full of optimism, but I'm not reading too much into it.

Regarding your other points, I believe I heard from the company (either in literature or at the AGM) that they didn't think their process would be easy to duplicate, and the new CEO is setting about strengthening their IP.

On time to market, antibodies don't seem to need the exhaustive testing that drugs need. They seem to be regarded as intrinsically pretty safe regardless of what they are targeted at. An example is that you don't even need a prescription for Travelan. The EV-71 product is also apparently all ready to go after a pretty short period.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jan 10 2008, 08:34 AM


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Ah, I have an audience after all. Hi OG. Yes, things have been pretty grim on the share price front. Apparently, Tatura Milk (a large shareholder since a capital raising years ago) was bought out and the new owner dumped shares (for a big loss on their initial investment) until the price fell too low for them to continue. At the last change-in-substantial-holding notice they still owned over 7% of the company (about 7 million shares), so if they are selling out completely they still have a way to go. I wouldn't be surprised if it was mostly them selling yesterday. If so we should get another notice soon, and the nice price rise we got won't hold unless the buyers keep streaming in.

Hi triage. I'll try to address some of your points in the next few days (don't have much info with me). I would add that one advantage ANX has is the steady revenue they get from functional foods. It's only a sideline and isn't enough for them to stay out of the red, but it greatly reduces the requirement for capital. In the six years I've been a shareholder shares on issue have gone from about 80 million to about 104 million. That's a long period without much dilution. However, with such a low share price and all the changes in the works (e.g., entry into the US) I don't know if it will stay that way.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jan 9 2008, 09:44 AM


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I'm probably talking to myself, but here's another nice announcement. Mentioning "bird flu" in an announcement doesn't have the effect it once did, but it certainly doesn't hurt.

Milk-based Anti-influenza virus (flu) antibodies to provide immediate immunity
Wednesday 9 January 2008
Melbourne, Australia. Anadis Limited (ASX:ANX; OTC: ANDIY), today announced major progress in its anti-flu virus antibody program. The milk- derived anti-flu virus antibodies are all-natural and will provide immediate-acting immune enhancement once deposited topically on mucosal surfaces that come in contact with the influenza virus. Results from human trials are anticipated within 18 months.

Addressing both seasonal and avian influenza (bird flu) virus strains, Anadis plans to introduce products using these antibodies (Flubodies) into the market within 2-3 years. This decision follows several successful animal trials with mice, conducted by Anadis and an internationally-recognized influenza research group at the University of Melbourne led by Professor Lorena Brown, using recognized pathways for development of anti-avian flu virus treatments.

The dairy derived anti-flu virus antibody significantly decreased disease mortality and were significantly interrupting the disease process after challenges with lethal doses of virus. Anadis prototype milk-derived hyperimmune antibody preparation ("flubody") improved the survival rate of infected mice (exposed to lethal flu) from 0% in non-treated mice to up to 60% in treated mice. In other trials, it was shown that the progress of disease could be delayed for days with a single application of the prototype formulation.

"This series of new preclinical tests gives us the comfort level to accelerate and the commercialization of our revolutionary Flubody approach for halting viral spread, utilizing our patent pending antibody formulations to provide immediate acting immunity" ," said Dr Zeil Rosenberg, Anadis CEO. "Antibody and other protein-based solutions represent the next generation in the fight against influenza and Anadis, with its rapid development effort and extremely low manufacturing cost for harvesting antibodies, is well-positioned to benefit from this trend."

Influenza affects 15-60 million people in the United States each year, causing an estimated 44,000 deaths and 186,000 hospitalizations annually. Pandemic influenza has occurred three times over the last century. The 1918 outbreak alone killed more than 40 million people worldwide. Avian influenza (bird flu) is a lethal influenza strain that has created worldwide concern because its infection can be transferred among humans. The mortality rate among humans exceeds 50%.

Dr. Oren Fuerst, VP of Business Development of the company said: "Benefiting from our years of experience in the harvesting of polyclonal antibodies and other fractions of dairy derived immune milk (colostrum), we aim to be first to market with an effective and patented formulation for both the routine and avian flu markets. With our unique approach, we plan to become world leaders in the influenza market that today already exceeds $5 billion worldwide."

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jan 2 2008, 08:31 AM


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In reply to: Brantley on Tuesday 01/01/08 09:55am

I'm amazed that PSDV has the barest influence on any index, let alone being singled out like that.

I've been expecting the minimum price notification. The company has a bit more leeway than I thought in getting back to $1, though.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Dec 14 2007, 12:12 PM


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Re today's announcement: What is the "Over-the-counter market" for ADRs? I assume that these ADRs will not be on Nasdaq. How do people trade them? (And please don't say "over the counter" and leave it at that. tongue.gif)

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Nov 29 2007, 07:32 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Wednesday 28/11/07 03:20pm

I thought Medidur was PSD's ticket to success, or one of the two (along with Pfizer), and the one that looks the most promising at this stage. If PSD decides to sell it they wouldn't want to underestimate future sales and profit. Or, will they be forced into a bad deal for them and a great one for Alimera because they need the cash? It doesn't sound good to me.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Nov 28 2007, 02:59 PM


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In reply to: xmas on Wednesday 28/11/07 02:31pm

One reason for doing an IPO is to raise needed cash, so I doubt Alimera could buy out PSD beforehand.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Nov 28 2007, 01:53 PM


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In reply to: xmas on Wednesday 28/11/07 12:38pm

Well, I don't know what you mean then. Sell off their royalties for Medidur? What?

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Nov 28 2007, 12:11 PM


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In reply to: xmas on Wednesday 28/11/07 12:07pm

They don't own a share of Alimera to sell off.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 23 2007, 02:33 PM


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Musical chairs mostly.

Effective 16 October 2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 408,329,418 55.82
2 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited 28,440,335 3.89
3 Citicorp Nominees 26,438,185 3.61
4 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 3.51
5 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.07
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 1.86
7 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.37
8 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 9,799,325 1.34
9 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.545
10 Absolute Octane Master Fund Limited 3,846,154 0.53
Total no. of shares 552,666,922 75.545
Issued Capital
732,370,830 shares on issue
415,178,063 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 9/10:
ANZ Nominees -42,244
HSBC Custody Nominees +2,769,872
Citicorp Nominees +57,689
HSBC Custody Nominees Acc. 2 -2,863,140
Top 10 aggregate -77,823

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 17 2007, 01:29 PM


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In reply to: buffett on Wednesday 17/10/07 10:33am

But at any given time you don't know what will get you a great return in the future. It's easy to say in hindsight that we all should have been out of PSD and in something else (which we certainly should have).

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 16 2007, 12:15 PM


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In reply to: Pessimist on Monday 15/10/07 08:03am

Correction. As of the last update, Roger Aston is not in the top 10, but all we know is that he's now somewhere below 3,846,154. Anyway, it's not a good sign.

Effective 9 October 2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 408,371,662 55.83
2 Citicorp Nominees 26,380,496 3.61
3 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited 25,670,463 3.51
4 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 3.51
5 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.07
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 1.86
7 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 12,662,465 1.73
8 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.37
9 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.545
10 Absolute Octane Master Fund Limited 3,846,154 0.53
Total no. of shares 552,744,745 75.565
Issued Capital
732,370,830 shares on issue
415,178,063 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 21/9:
ANZ Nominees -2,133,040
Citicorp Nominees +382,141
HSBC Custody Nominees +2,173,056
HSBC Custody Nominees Acc. 2 -3,229,626
Out: Roger Aston (-4,023,586)
In: Absolute Octane Master Fund
Top 10 aggregate -2,984,901

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 15 2007, 08:03 AM


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In reply to: buffett on Friday 12/10/07 09:49pm

It's only top 10s that I maintain, buffett. I don't know what's happened to any director's shareholding except Roger Aston's, who is still in the top 10. GR's shareholding simply disappeared without trace. He might have sold or just moved the shares into numerous personally owned companies like Aymon Pacific.

Effective 8 August 2006
No. Shareholder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 212,275,164 53.39
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 6.45
3 Westpac Custodian Nominees Limited 16,988,093 4.27
4 Gavin Rezos 11,490,282 2.89
5 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 2.53
6 Mr Roger Aston 7,093,586 1.78
7 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 6,632,048 1.67
8 JP Morgan Nominees 5,138,577 1.29
9 National Nominees Limited 4,315,006 1.09
10 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 1.01

At this point, GR vanished and Aymon Pacific (also GR's) appeared.

Effective 11 August 2006
No. Shareholder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 212,275,164 53.39
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 6.45
3 Westpac Custodian Nominees Limited 16,988,093 4.27
4 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 2.53
5 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 6,632,048 1.67
6 Mr Roger Aston 5,498,586 1.38
7 JP Morgan Nominees 5,138,577 1.29
8 Aymon Pacific Pty Limited 5,005,232 1.26
9 National Nominees Limited 4,315,006 1.09
10 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 1.01

Then, Aymon Pacific disappeared.

Effective 15 August 2006
No. Shareholder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 212,754,304 53.51
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 6.45
3 Westpac Custodian Nominees Limited 16,958,093 4.27
4 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 2.53
5 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 6,636,048 1.67
6 Mr Roger Aston 5,618,586 1.41
7 JP Morgan Nominees 5,188,577 1.31
8 National Nominees Limited 4,351,778 1.09
9 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 1.01
10 Professor Leigh Canham 3,730,000 0.94

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Oct 12 2007, 01:48 PM


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In reply to: buffett on Friday 12/10/07 09:48am

The cash spent in the past creates shareholder wealth if it advances products along the path of research, testing, registration, production and sales - assuming that one or more products actually complete that path and subsequently make more money than was spent on them. Whether that occurs in PSD's case still remains to be seen of course, but if it does then the cash burned to get there, one hopes, will have been necessary.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 26 2007, 03:18 PM


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In reply to: astoria on Tuesday 25/09/07 03:57pm

Effective 21 September 2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 410,504,702 56.11
2 Citicorp Nominees 25,998,355 3.55
3 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 3.51
4 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited 23,497,407 3.21
5 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.07
6 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 15,892,091 2.17
7 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 1.86
8 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.37
9 Mr Roger Aston 4,023,586 0.55
10 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.545
Total no. of shares 555,729,646 75.945
Issued Capital
732,370,830 shares on issue
415,178,063 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 4/9:
ANZ Nominees -417,548
Citicorp Nominees +514,090
HSBC Custody Nominees (no. 4 above) +750
Top 10 aggregate +97,292

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 10 2007, 05:58 PM


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Posts: 1,598

No witty remarks about PSD presenting at an astrologers' conference? There's got to be some good comic material in that.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 7 2007, 02:37 PM


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In reply to: buffett on Friday 07/09/07 11:01am

Your concerns were appreciated at the time. In fact, it was probably you more than anyone else who alerted the regulars to PSD's dark corners. Sentiment on this board changed noticeably after that, especially with those who no longer post here. You were proved correct.

I wasn't taking a "cheap shot" at your post. You seemed to be taking a cheap shot at us, coming here to gloat to the "dog kennel" owners you claim to be living off. How did you expect that to go down?

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 7 2007, 10:22 AM


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In reply to: buffett on Friday 07/09/07 09:51am

You're obviously enjoying rubbing everyone's nose in it, buffett. You and omegaoil ought to form a partnership. You're perfect for each other.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 7 2007, 09:36 AM


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Not much on the top 10 front.

Changes 25/8 to 4/9:
ANZ Nominees -877,162
Citicorp Nominees +544,991
HSBC Custody Nominees +490,380
Top 10 aggregate +158,209

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 5 2007, 09:59 AM


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Dang. I wish I'd bought in the 9s. I blame tilford for saying it would go lower. tongue.gif

Rose, the Frankfurt volume was 2.85m. The Yahoo reported volume is wrong (as usual).

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 4 2007, 12:58 PM


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In reply to: astoria on Tuesday 04/09/07 12:20pm

And it shouldn't be long before PSDV is back above US$1, as long as PSD doesn't fall back. 0.135/share = US$1.11/ADS.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 3 2007, 08:12 PM


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First posted on HC today, source unknown. A slightly different version appears at http://www.realnanotechinvestor.com/content.html?pg=231

17 August 2007
This Is Bad?
GS Early, Editor
We’ve all been watching the dramatic gyrations of the stock markets around the world as the US financial and mortgage sectors try to sort out how hard to land in the official end to the US housing bubble.

The market has been on a manic upswing Friday, and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite are making it a much better weekend than if you headed out of town yesterday. And it wasn’t until late in this depressive trend that many of my nano stocks started to get hit. But some of the Pioneers have now become short targets and are paying a price for no particular reason.

For example, pSivida is trading at new 52-week lows and, even in today’s uptrended market, is down a penny. This is a company with zero debt on its books and enough operating capital to get through the next 18 months without another deal coming through the door. It’s also a company whose largest shareholder is pharma giant Pfizer, which is committed to pouring tens of millions of dollars into the company in coming months and years.

And just this week, as its stock continued to plummet, it released news that it completed recruitment for its pancreatic cancer study in Europe in Phase IIa trials for BrachySil. That’s some encouraging news in and of itself.

But here’s what the preliminary studies have shown:

Eight weeks follow-up data available on the first 10 patients treated shows 90% of these patients have had either stabilization or reduction in size of their primary tumor and none of these patients experienced product related significant adverse events.

This is some seriously good news. Most drug trials wash out in Phase II when efficacy is put through its paces on humans.

These trials will be on a smaller group than the Phase III trials, but for a virtually untreatable cancer, any improvement from waiting for the inevitable is headway. It’s presenting significant safety and efficacy results in this small sample, which portends a similar trend in a larger sample.

Even if half the patients demonstrated stasis or improvement, it would be a compelling story. Final results will be announced in December or January.

The market isn’t smarter than you are; there are just some people having fun out there right now. pSivida has a lot more liquidity in the US market now with its recent secondary institutional offerings, and there’s a lot of momentum players jumping in just to make some quick money.

But when this thing turns, it’s going to be pretty exciting. Don’t be suckered by day traders; pSivida is a buy.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 3 2007, 10:42 AM


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In reply to: floyd on Monday 03/09/07 10:27am

And, reading between the lines, he essentially dumped on ERG in the process, the first obvious change of tune on ERG that I can recall.

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Pessimist
Posted on: Sep 3 2007, 10:34 AM


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Gavin Ross has finally turned on ERG. While making noises about "steady progress" and refusing to give up on it long term, essentially his advice now is to sell ERG.

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Posted on: Aug 31 2007, 08:00 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Thursday 30/08/07 06:13pm

PSDV closed up 7 cents to 0.86 on good volume. Even so, it's still well below PSD (0.938 equivalent). There's money to be made buying in the US and selling in Aus.

There can't be much longer for the company to do something about PSDV being under $1.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 29 2007, 08:52 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Tuesday 28/08/07 08:20am

I don't check it very often, since it's not updated regularly any more. There are now two HSBC accounts, and one of them appears to have got all the National Nominees shares.

Effective 24 August 2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 411,799,412 56.3
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 3.51
3 Citicorp Nominees 24,939,274 3.41
4 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited 23,006,277 3.15
5 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.07
6 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 15,892,091 2.17
7 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 1.86
8 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.53
9 Mr Roger Aston 4,023,586 0.55
10 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.545
Total no. of shares 555,474,145 76.095
Issued Capital
732,370,830 shares on issue
415,178,063 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 10/8:
ANZ Nominees -4,949,263
Citicorp Nominees -604,336
HSBC Custody Nominees +1,085,745
Out: National Nominees (-14,371,542)
In: HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2
Top 10 aggregate -2,947,305

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 28 2007, 08:16 AM


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In reply to: j23mde on Sunday 26/08/07 11:17pm

pSivida was formerly known as Sumich Group Limited. According to ASIC the company was registered on 29 April 1987.
http://www.search.asic.gov.au/cgi-bin/gns0...t=ACN&srchsrc=1

I don't know when it became a public company or when the name changed. The first stock exchange announcement for pSivida was on 23 November 2000, so it probably became the company shareholders know it as sometime before that.

What do the stars say about it?

Pess
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Posted on: Aug 24 2007, 10:01 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Thursday 23/08/07 04:57pm

There's now a big discrepancy between the exchanges: 0.12 = US0.98/ADS, but PSDV closed at 0.83.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 17 2007, 10:56 AM


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In reply to: rbcrawford on Friday 17/08/07 10:24am

Niako seems to concentrate on the market laughing stocks.

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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 16 2007, 01:14 PM


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PSD really is the ASX punching bag isn't it. After all these falls day after day and month after month, when the ASX has a real bloodbath across the board, PSD still gets hit harder than almost everything else. laughingsmiley.gif

Pess
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Posted on: Aug 16 2007, 11:08 AM


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Announcement out that revenue from functional food will increase 85% to $8 million this financial year. While just a sideline, money from these products greatly reduces the company's need to keep raising capital and diluting shareholdings. So this is very positive news for the future value of our shares IMO, if they can just score that one big winner among their core products.

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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 16 2007, 10:26 AM


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In reply to: BSA on Thursday 16/08/07 10:18am

I think that was just before GR bought 2,000,000 @ 10c, after which the long journey to $1.45 began (I thought it was after 2001 though).

Now just 7,294 shares remain at 10, and then it's 9c if the selling continues.

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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 16 2007, 10:08 AM


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The inevitable 10c has arrived. There's not much in the depth either below the 800k that remains at 10.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 14 2007, 01:55 PM


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In reply to: tilford on Tuesday 14/08/07 01:37pm

Hi tilford. Nice to hear from you (though not your outlook!). Do you think it will go much lower because you believe it's way overvalued (!), or because the market has no idea?

Pess

P.S. It looks like 10c will happen sooner than I thought.
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 14 2007, 10:59 AM


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In reply to: rbcrawford on Tuesday 14/08/07 10:49am

At least the fall seems to be slowing. I still think it might go to 10c, just because it's a round number.

I thought it was Mike Williamson, not Butch Gale.

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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 14 2007, 10:37 AM


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Effective 10/08/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 416,748,675 56.97
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 3.51
3 Citicorp Nominees 25,543,610 3.49
4 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.07
5 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited 21,920,532 3.00
6 National Nominees Limited 14,371,542 1.96
7 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 1.86
8 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.53
9 Mr Roger Aston 4,023,586 0.55
10 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.545
Total no. of shares 558,421,450 76.485
732,370,830 shares on issue
415,178,063 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 27/7:
ANZ Nominees -1,387,560
Citicorp Nominees -1,614,096
National Nominees -25,000
HSBC Custody Nominees +700,000
Top 10 aggregate -2,326,656

Pess
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Posted on: Aug 14 2007, 08:05 AM


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I don't think the results say anything very useful except that the treatment produced no adverse effects (e.g., from radiation leakage), which is all they were testing for anyway. IOW, without more information, all we can say is that the treatment did not make the patients worse. That's because all patients were on chemo as well, so we can't tell whether it was the chemo, the Brachysil or the combination that resulted in tumour size reduction or stabilization. If they had compared the chemo/Brachysil results with typical chemo-only results for similar tumours, we would have a better idea of Brachysil's contribution to the results.

Pess

P.S. Where is tilford?
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 10 2007, 02:38 PM


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So MBL is now a good trading stock. Why bother with speculative minnows when you can trade the swings of MBL?

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Posted on: Aug 10 2007, 09:09 AM


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In reply to: Livas1 on Friday 10/08/07 08:44am

I'm sure it matters to US shareholders, and volumes there are higher now than on the ASX (on a value basis). Nasdaq is now PSD's main exchange and with the shift of the company itself to the US, they can't allow a delisting from Nasdaq. If things don't improve I would expect a share consolidation, say 1 for 10, to prevent it (and complicate our future tax returns).

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Posted on: Aug 10 2007, 08:36 AM


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In reply to: Pessimist on Thursday 09/08/07 07:59am

PSDV down to 0.90 (=PSD 0.106) overnight on 300k volume (=3 million here). After no appreciable rises for a long time, only falls, the listing situation is getting serious. The only bright side is that it went down along with the US market generally, so maybe it'll go up if the US market recovers.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 9 2007, 07:59 AM


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PSDV drifted down on good volume overnight and closed at 0.95 (=PSD 0.11). The Nasdaq listing is in trouble if it gets entrenched below $1, and we could be in for another bad day here.

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Posted on: Aug 8 2007, 10:23 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Tuesday 07/08/07 10:53am

Looking not so good now. A big seller appears to have moved in.

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Posted on: Aug 8 2007, 09:51 AM


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There's an analysis of MBL in today's Age (the weekly Money section). It says the fall has more to do with the effect of the increasing cost of debt on MBL's business model than the US sub-prime stuff. It concludes that if debt costs continue to rise, MBL is still a long way from a buy.

Pess
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Posted on: Aug 3 2007, 01:02 PM


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In reply to: astoria on Friday 03/08/07 12:17pm

I like the name a lot. It looks very 21st century, and it coincidentally shares a silent 'p' with Pfizer. But it's carrying a lot of baggage from the bad times and some people probably just think it's very strange and don't know how to pronounce it. A change might be for the best.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 3 2007, 09:40 AM


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In reply to: diana on Friday 03/08/07 09:15am

Any idea what this means?

QUOTE
...bit off more than it could chew with a recent acquisition


Utter nonsense (or I'm just not paying enough attention to announcements!).

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Posted on: Aug 3 2007, 07:56 AM


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In reply to: Request on Thursday 02/08/07 09:50pm

I wouldn't pay any attention to that. The author's reasoning seems to be that because it has been struggling, it's never going to amount to anything, as though no struggling company has ever recovered. There's no mention of the company ridding itself of debt, no mention of its now-healthy cash position, no mention of the Pfizer deal, no mention of Medidur, no mention of Brachysil. In short, no analysis whatsoever.

Pess
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Posted on: Aug 2 2007, 08:44 AM


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In reply to: Request on Thursday 02/08/07 06:08am

My average is $0.53, which translates to USD 4.53/ADS. I'm holding, and more inclined to buy than sell. It might go lower, but I don't think much lower unless there is bad news, such as Pfizer pulling out of the deal, so I don't see any point in selling.

There has been a lot of stock dilution, which is probably the main reason for the low share price. But dilution only affects existing shareholders, not new ones, since the dilution is already built into the share price for new buyers. That's why I'm thinking of "undiluting" to some extent by buying. OTOH, that will just make my loss larger if it doesn't work out. It's a speculative stock no doubt, so you have to decide if you are willing to risk a large loss for a possible large reward.

The future of the company rests on the Pfizer deal and Medidur, IMO, and both of those might take a couple more years to bear fruit (though the share price will rise before that if the market is convinced that this is likely). A takeover by Pfizer at any time also cannot be ruled out.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Aug 1 2007, 09:30 AM


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Some things don't add up here. Shares have been issued since the last update, as indicated by the large change in ANZ nominees and the reduced % of the company of each shareholding, but the reported shares on issue has not changed and Pfizer's shareholding has not changed, despite plowing another US$6.5 million into the company. Maybe their additional shares are in ANZ Nominees.

Effective 27/07/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 418,136,235 57.2
2 Citicorp Nominees 27,157,706 3.71
3 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 3.51
4 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.07
5 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited 21,220,532 2.9
6 National Nominees Limited 14,396,542 1.97
7 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 1.86
8 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.53
9 Mr Roger Aston 4,023,586 0.55
10 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.545
Total no. of shares 560,748,106 76.845
Issued Capital
709,970,830 shares on issue
415,178,063 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Effective 10/07/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 363,422,626 55.17
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 3.89
3 Citicorp Nominees 25,055,655 3.8
4 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.41
5 National Nominees Limited 14,670,409 2.23
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 2.07
7 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.53
8 Mr Roger Aston 4,023,586 0.615
9 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.61
10 Absolute Octane Master Fund Limited 3,846,154 0.58
Total no. of shares 486,831,935 73.905
Issued Capital
709,970,830 shares on issue
415,178,063 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes:
ANZ Nominees +54,713,609
Citicorp Nominees +2,102,051
National Nominees -273,867
In: HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited
Out: Absolute Octane Master Fund Limited (-3,846,154)
Top 10 aggregate +73,916,171

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jul 31 2007, 08:52 AM


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PSDV fell 0.11 to $1.05 overnight. It's getting dangerously close to Nasdaq's $1 minimum, though I believe it has to stay below that for a while before they suspend it. The price corresponds to 12.2 cents here.

Hello everyone.

Pess
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Posted on: Jul 13 2007, 02:47 PM


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Note that about 144 million shares have been issued since last time, which no doubt accounts for the large increase in ANZ Nominees. PSD is drowning in shares.

Effective 10/07/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 363,422,626 55.17
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 3.89
3 Citicorp Nominees 25,055,655 3.8
4 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.41
5 National Nominees Limited 14,670,409 2.23
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 2.07
7 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.53
8 Mr Roger Aston 4,023,586 0.615
9 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.61
10 Absolute Octane Master Fund Limited 3,846,154 0.58
Total no. of shares 486,831,935 73.905
Issued Capital
709,970,830 shares on issue
415,178,063 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 29/6:
ANZ Nominees +92,012,720
Citicorp Nominees +374,762
In: National Nominees
Out: HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 (-19,192,091)
Top 10 aggregate +87,865,800

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jul 11 2007, 02:11 PM


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If the fall isn't arrested soon, PSDV will be delisted from Nasdaq, or there will need to be a share consolidation to adjust the PSDV price to higher than US$1.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jul 5 2007, 03:32 PM


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Effective 29/06/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 271,409,906 47.87
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 4.52
3 Citicorp Nominees 24,680,893 4.35
4 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.97
5 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 19,192,091 3.39
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 2.4
7 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.77
8 Mr Roger Aston 4,023,586 0.71
9 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.7
10 Absolute Octane Master Fund Limited 3,846,154 0.68
Total no. of shares 398,966,135 70.36
Issued Capital
565,950,830 shares on issue
407,092,265 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 22/6
ANZ Nominees -6,930,969
Citicorp Nominees -318,000
Top 10 aggregate -7,248,969

There's no way to tell now if NIAKO is selling. If you did want to sell 23 million shares, maybe you'd do exactly what NIAKO did so you don't spook the market - hide them.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jul 4 2007, 11:36 AM


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In reply to: useless on Wednesday 04/07/07 09:57am

Will Pfizer's large position on the share register be an impediment to doing deals with other pharmas? I'm not sure I'd like to see them sitting there I were a rival. This kind of situation must be common, though. Are there any experts on pharma JVs about?

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jul 3 2007, 10:25 AM


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QUOTE (chooka @ Tuesday 03/07/07 09:50am)

Well, if you issue 14 million ADSs at $US1.25 you're telling the market that that's what they're worth. Add in some shareholder anger over the dilution and the discount and the result is US$1.18.

Pess

P.S. What a pity that our very own omegaoil got no free options from this raising.
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Posted on: Jun 29 2007, 10:15 AM


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In reply to: diana on Friday 29/06/07 09:29am

It might have been Pfizer, but that particular evaluation has vanished off the face of the earth. I'm sure it will emerge that the recent licence agreement is all about CDS drug delivery technology, with not a silicon atom to be found anywhere. The "top 5 pharma" evaluation was for Biosilicon.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 29 2007, 09:07 AM


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In reply to: diana on Friday 29/06/07 07:47am

YM, if you look at the complete history of PSD's collaborations, nearly all have disappeared without trace - the infamous "top 5 pharma" being the most prominent example.

Well, you have to hang on to something, wolverine. NIAKO was buying up big when everyone else was selling, so naturally we wondered if he (it's just one guy, apparently) knew more than the sellers. (Of course, it didn't enter our minds that the sellers might know more than he did.) That's why there's particular interest in him, and apparently he's still there, but hidden now. Also, former directors selling at these levels (which one is) is not a good sign.

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Posted on: Jun 28 2007, 01:14 PM


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Original ann. was 5 April 2006. No more detail in that either, though.

Well, this breaks the trend of collaborations that disappear without trace once announced.

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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 28 2007, 11:12 AM


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In reply to: Pessimist on Wednesday 27/06/07 12:57pm

On that subject, "aqutau" on HC says:
QUOTE
Apparently NIAKO Investmentment has transferred its holding into ANZ Nominees


I don't know how reliable that is, but it fits the big changes in the list.

Pess
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Posted on: Jun 27 2007, 12:57 PM


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In reply to: diana on Wednesday 27/06/07 12:28pm

We lost NIAKO all at once though. Too much has happened to explain by on-market transactions, so some big back-room deals must have happened. I don't know what to make of it.

Pess

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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 27 2007, 12:16 PM


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Effective 22/06/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 278,340,875 47.33
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 4.52
3 Citicorp Nominees 24,998,893 4.41
4 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.97
5 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 19,192,091 3.39
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 2.4
7 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.77
8 Mr Roger Aston 4,023,586 0.71
9 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.7
10 Absolute Octane Master Fund Limited 3,846,154 0.68
Total no. of shares 406,215,104 69.88
Issued Capital
565,950,830 shares on issue
407,092,265 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 12/6:
ANZ Nominees +36,989,663
Citicorp Nominees -2,296,197
HSBC Custody Nominees +13,025,096
Mr Roger Aston -500,000
Out: NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd (-23,140,082)
National Nominees Limited (-11,369,660)
In: Absolute Return Europe Fund
Absolute Octane Master Fund Limited
Top 10 aggregate +20,554,974

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 22 2007, 10:36 AM


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I'm probably a little late with this.

Effective 12/06/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 241,351,212 42.57
2 Citicorp Nominees 27,295,090 4.81
3 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 4.52
4 NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd 23,140,082 4.08
5 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.97
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 2.4
7 National Nominees Limited 11,369,660 2.01
8 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.77
9 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 6,166,995 1.09
10 Mr Roger Aston 4,523,586 0.8
Total no. of shares 385,660,130 68.02
Issued Capital
565,950,830 shares on issue
407,092,265 unlisted options (includes warrants)

Changes since 5/6:
ANZ Nominees +2,192,833
Citicorp Nominees -1,140,448
HSBC Custody Nominees +331,374
Roger Aston -475,000
Top 10 aggregate +908,759

The options total has been updated. Nearly 1 billion shares if they all get converted.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 19 2007, 02:47 PM


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In reply to: Livas1 on Tuesday 19/06/07 02:29pm

It's disappeared without trace, Livas. Hard to believe that it was once the golden goose that drove the share price up to $1.45.

Pess
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Posted on: Jun 14 2007, 10:17 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Thursday 14/06/07 09:51am

Yes, but too bad that the price won't move. There are small signs of a move up on PSD today, though. Too early to be sure.

Pess
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Posted on: Jun 13 2007, 08:50 AM


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In reply to: s4rx7 on Tuesday 12/06/07 04:48pm

Thanks, s4. I don't know what to make of it, though, except that it looks like another capital raising done with the share price at its lowest, so more massive dilution.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 6 2007, 02:17 PM


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Effective 05/06/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 239,158,379 42.19
2 Citicorp Nominees 28,435,538 5.02
3 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 4.52
4 NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd 23,140,082 4.08
5 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.97
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 2.4
7 National Nominees Limited 11,369,660 2.01
8 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.77
9 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 5,835,621 1.03
10 Mr Roger Atson 4,998,586 0.88
Total no. of shares 384,751,371 67.87
566,939,630 shares on issue
222,815,652 unlisted options

Changes since 22/5:
ANZ Nominees +3,533,830
Citicorp Nominees +9,996,753
Castlerigg MI 0
National Nominees 0
HSBC Custody Nominees 0
Out: Midsummer Investment Ltd (-10,067,766)
In: Roger Aston (+4,998,586)
Top 10 aggregate +8,461,403

Also of interest:
Effective 03/04/2007
7 Dr Roger Aston 7,193,586 1.55
(assuming Mr Roger Atson = Dr Roger Aston)

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 5 2007, 09:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: omegaoil on Monday 04/06/07 10:40pm

I can't imagine what I've said here to be put into your "retail trash" category. I've used an online broker for ages. Prior to that, I had rung my only other broker to buy or sell no more than ten times over several years and never mentioned the brokerage.

ijh, the volumes are too low for large holders to be selling out. It's probably just the retail trash giving up because the Pfizer deal didn't produce the bounce they expected.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

QUOTE (nodil @ Friday 01/06/07 08:24am)

The LD50 for ethyl acetate in rats (amount needed to kill half of them) is 11.3 ml/kg. The Merck Index also says that its taste is quite pleasant when diluted. So you probably could pour it on your cornflakes, and it might even taste okay.

I don't think glucose counts as a low-molecular-weight aldehyde. It does sound more like formaldehyde and acetaldehyde. Glucose also isn't a simple hydrocarbon aldehyde, since it's dominated by hydroxyls.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 01:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: BSA on Monday 04/06/07 12:33pm

Hi BSA. Well, it's the fundamentals that ultimately determine the share price, and that's why it's gone down. If PSD had been selling Brachysil and Retisert like hotcakes by now then the SP wouldn't be down here. The market appears to be betting that the Pfizer deal will come to nothing. It's sick of promises and now wants to see the colour of PSD's money. In the end the share price is based upon the business and not the chart. The chart reflects a business that's been gobbling up capital and making big losses for seven years straight.

People like omega who just want to make a quick killing and be given freebies might get some use from charts, since charting may be self-fulfilling to some extent and the outlook is so short-term for those people. They aren't interested in the company or its business at all.

Thanks for taking the time to answer my comments.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: omegaoil on Monday 04/06/07 10:27am

So if investors in a company are "retail trash", what does that make those who want nothing more than put their hands out for free options?

As for the chart, well, did it predict the price fall since the Pfizer deal? I'm afraid I don't get charting at all. If it's not a predictor of the future then it's useless, but chartists always seem to qualify their comments, like "a break of 15.5c will see 10c as the next target." That seems contradictory to me. What it boils down to is that you don't know whether it will go up or down at any given time. If it does break 15.5c, it's not going to suddenly plummet to 10c. It might go to 15c for days, then 14.5c for days, then it might go up to 15c again and then bit by bit back to 17c. Or it might slowly fall to 10c, and if it does you'll say it was written once it broke 15.5c. It's BS. There's no more reason for it to go to 10c than 12c or 13c or 14c.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 10:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: grommit on Monday 04/06/07 09:56am

No PSD options are listed on the ASX.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Jun 4 2007, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: omegaoil on Sunday 03/06/07 12:48pm

They also have Medidur and Brachysil. Pfizer was interested enough to agree to the deal in the first place and take a stake in the company, so you would think that they would only cancel the deal if the technology doesn't measure up to their expectations.

You certainly don't sound like a stockbroker, with your lack of knowledge of the company and request for a "chart evaluation". Did you advise your clients according to charts?

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 29 2007, 02:39 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: omegaoil on Tuesday 29/05/07 02:14pm

So, the word 'investment' escaped your notice entirely in your time as a stockbroker, or are you so sure that PSD is a bad one that you'll never have the chance to make a better profit than you've already made?

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 29 2007, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: astoria on Tuesday 29/05/07 11:13am

It's exactly because of those achievement that the price fall doesn't make sense. But it takes more than selling to make a price fall. It also takes an unwillingness to buy. Not everyone is after a short-term gain. There are plenty of investors out there who invest for the medium or long term, so short-term impacts on price such as a seller dumping shouldn't put those investors off, so there must be other reasons they won't buy. A price can only fall so far below a valuation based on fundamentals before the buyers who believe it's cheap will overcome the dumping sellers. Therefore, I have to conclude that the current share price really is somewhere in the ball park of the market's valuation of the company, which is roughly a capitalization of about $110 million (using the 716 million total undiluted number of shares given in the notice of meeting, which takes into account the ADSs still to be issued).

Perhaps omegaoil, who claims to be a former broker, would like to provide some substance to the forum for a change with a little reasoned analysis, instead of just putting a hand out for more free options.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 29 2007, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: astoria on Tuesday 29/05/07 10:31am

omega will be very disappointed not to qualify for the next round of cash raising.

What a time to be dumping stock, which is what appears to be happening this morning. It just looks like kicking the stock mercilessly while it is down and already beaten up and bloody.

I think this forum badly needs a proper analysis of what is going on. I don't think the reasons given for price fall since the Pfizer deal, such as option holders selling, explain it adequately. PSD is a very liquid stock now and the bottom line is that buyers are reluctant to pay even 17 cents per share now, which means that they don't have confidence that the price will rise any time soon. For example, if you believed that the price would be, say, 30 cents a year from now, you would be buying all the shares you could because you'd make nearly 100% profit in a year. The share price has nearly halved since the Pfizer deal and I want to know why.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 25 2007, 10:16 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: omegaoil on Friday 25/05/07 12:18am

Forget it, omega. Zip for you.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 21 2007, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

Notice of meeting: Resolution 3 is for the issue of up to 150 million shares within three months of the meeting. Is this new or the completion of something from the past? The issue is at a 20% discount. I don't think we've seen the bottom if this news is a surprise.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 18 2007, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: console on Friday 18/05/07 10:52am

Looks tempting to me too, but it all depends on Pfizer, Medidur and how many more dilutory cash handouts they'll need before those deals start bringing in $$$. With any luck milestone payments from Pfizer will mean no more raisings, but we don't have any details on that so I wouldn't count on it.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 17 2007, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: King Baz on Wednesday 16/05/07 11:40pm

Hard to say. Private buyers tend to sell off assets to pay their debt, so their Retisert interest could be sold off. AFAIK, Retisert is their only association with PSD, and it hasn't set the world on fire. Maybe a buyer would put more life into it. Then again, if eye specialists like B&L can't make it fire up, could anyone else? Anyway, Pfizer and Medidur look like being much bigger for PSD than Retisert. The only worry is whether some cash will come in before PSD has to ask for more handouts. That's the big disappointment with Retisert; if it had done better we wouldn't keep having our shareholdings diluted.

Effective 15/05/07
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 234,865,584 41.43
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 4.52
3 NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd 23,140,082 4.08
4 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.97
5 Citicorp Nominees 19,573,690 3.45
6 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 2.4
7 National Nominees Limited 11,369,660 2.01
8 Midsummer Investment Ltd 10,067,766 1.78
9 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.77
10 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 5,835,621 1.03
Total no. of shares 376,665,908 66.44
Issued Capital
566,939,630 shares on issue
222,815,652 unlisted options

Changes, since 17/4:
ANZ Nominees +5,296,590
Citicorp Nominees +9,428,394
National Nominees +30,000
Top 10 aggregate +14,754,984

I see that the shares on issue hasn't changed, which means either that it hasn't been updated or that no debt has been converted to equity.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 16 2007, 03:05 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: DRUGGIST on Wednesday 16/05/07 01:21pm

It was the buyers who finally blinked after hours of stand-off. It's like extracting teeth getting anyone to buy even after good news.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 16 2007, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: astoria on Wednesday 16/05/07 09:23am

Great news. PSD is on the long road back.

Only a small rise so far, so the market is looking for more than this. Now the Pfizer deal has to move forward and they have to keep us informed of progress.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 15 2007, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

Well, there's no sign of any improvement. We are slowly drifting down and today there's a sell order of 163k at 0.15. It should still open at 0.17 though.

It's going to be interesting to watch over the next few months. I would say that at some point the market is going to have to act all surprised that the Pfizer deal and Medidur are real and start taking PSD seriously, or the deals are going to fizzle out to nothing and PSD will go down the gurgler. I didn't think I would ever buy more PSD because I've already invested plenty in it, but at this price I'm seriously thinking about it.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 11 2007, 08:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: 1Bradymichael on Friday 11/05/07 05:23am

Yes, interesting, Mike. It sounds pretty hi-tech with the antibodies targeting the cancer cells, but for the same reason it doesn't sound like a general-purpose cancer treatment, since I would guess that different types of cancers require different antibodies. The company doesn't appear to be listed on the ASX.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 10 2007, 09:01 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: 1Bradymichael on Thursday 10/05/07 05:55am

Roadshows are normally aimed at big investors - funds and the like - and they probably take some time to do an evaluation. Anyway, if roadshows work they just lift the price a bit earlier than otherwise, assuming they get realistic information (as opposed to the spin that sent PSD over $1 and then back down again). The real drivers in the share price will be progress with the Pfizer deal and Medidur - in other words, $$$.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 8 2007, 10:21 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: alonso on Tuesday 08/05/07 09:50am

Someone on HC said they heard on the radio that another announcement is coming, so they are still halted. Another bid is my guess, but it would still have to go through the approval process all over again. I thought this was interesting from Stephen Bartholomeusz in today's Age:
Shares sold by hedge funds would be bought by "long" funds with no intention of selling at anything close to $5.45. APA's only realistic chance of getting to 50 per cent of Qantas lies in keeping the hedge funds on the register and playing their arbitrage games against the bid - soaking up selling by other shareholders and in the process swelling the number of shares that would flow to APA.

A trading halt bought APA time. A resumption of trading would, in the absence of an extension, probably sound the death knell for its ambitions.


Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 7 2007, 01:06 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: King Baz on Monday 07/05/07 12:34pm

OBJ of course, KB. No big numbers like $203 million in that one to weigh down the share price. Consequently, they are up 10% and we are down 30%.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 5 2007, 09:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: Kenuppa on Saturday 05/05/07 07:17pm

Yes, it's hard to see how the late acceptance can be, well, accepted by the panel. That shareholder had ages to accept and chose not to in what, it is safe to assume, were its own interests. It wanted to squeeze every last cent out of the deal by sitting back and banking on others to get the deal over the line, but things didn't work out as it expected. It gambled and lost, then tried to get back in the game by breaking the rules that were clearly laid down. If the bid is accepted, what will it mean for future takeover deadlines? They become rubbery and uncertain. It's a no-brainer that it should be rejected.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 5 2007, 06:32 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: balance on Saturday 05/05/07 05:37am

Maybe it's not over yet, balance.

It's been reported by the ABC that an acceptance after the deadline has pushed APA's bid over 50%. What happens now is up to the takeovers panel.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200705/s1915046.htm

In hindsight this may be the reason APA announced the failure so soon. They wanted to flush out more acceptances and put pressure on the takeovers panel.

It will make a mockery of bid deadlines if this is allowed to go through.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 4 2007, 10:37 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: mysterious on Friday 04/05/07 10:07pm

APA has to start all over again if they still want it. They can't do that in a weekend, although I suppose they could announce their intention. In the absence of that a fall is inevitable on Monday, and only the magnitude of it is uncertain.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 4 2007, 03:43 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: astoria on Friday 04/05/07 03:22pm

Yep, big rally in progress. On the 19.5 line are 9 buyers totalling exactly 1,000,000 shares. That can't be a coincidence.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 4 2007, 01:40 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: nifty49 on Friday 04/05/07 12:50pm

It suits me, but not everyone will be happy. They've effectively done an additional placement at nearly a 50% discount to the current share price, which dilutes shareholdings more than necessary. If they wanted more cash than the $8 million they asked for they could have done another placement at a higher price.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 4 2007, 09:56 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: 1Bradymichael on Friday 04/05/07 09:47am

Hi Mike. It might sound like a broken record, but to just dismiss it for that reason is to not account for the changed circumstances. It's mainly GR's spruiking that's responsible for the scepticism, but he's gone now. AFAIK Paul Ashton hasn't done anything yet to be put in the same basket. The facts are that Medidur is in the pipeline and we do have the Pfizer deal. They will either bear fruit or they won't, but I don't think they are less likely to because of all that's gone on up to this point.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 4 2007, 09:07 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: s4rx7 on Thursday 03/05/07 04:26pm

Share prices generally go up when a takeover is in motion. And I don't see why the share price should continue to be "slaughtered". Reasons to buy:
- Pfizer deal
- Medidur
- Brachysil (maybe)
- Further pharma deals (maybe)
- Potential takeover target

Reasons to sell:
- None of the above occurring

Medidur looks good so far and there's no reason to think it's going to fall in a heap. Market cap. at present is about $100 million. Pfizer deal alone is worth up to $203 million. Sure, we don't have the details and we don't know how it will all turn out, but does it deserve valuing at zero at this point?

It'd be good to get some reasoning behind the dire predictions.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 3 2007, 02:47 PM


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Posts: 1,598

I don't know anything about this poster on HC, but I'll post it and take it as you will:

Posted by stricker:
* * *
Who ever is listening out there, I have spent time on the phone with investor relations guy who is currently in the US doing presentations to potential new investors. I asked him about the share price action and he himself is totally amazed at what is currently at play. They accept that at above 22.5 Sandell have been a seller which is returning a profit for them on a small parsel of shares they obtained at 1.62 strike, but at these levels its all retail. Australians are fed up with price going down and are being panicked out, which causes the US and germany to follow.

Here are the facts as to the state of play.

1. Pfizer is happy and going anywhre.
[I guess this means not going anywhere - Pess]
2. Money is in the bank and ready to payout Sandell.
3. All the majours are staying put and are not sellers.

To me the only thing thats currently at play is toatl fear.

Fundementals are in the best they have ever been and the SP is at 3 year lows. This is a def buying opportunity.

These are just my thoughts on the matter.
* * *

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 3 2007, 08:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

In reply to: Livas1 on Wednesday 02/05/07 05:44pm

Laughing wryly, Livas, which is usually what I'm doing when I use that emoticon. What else can you do to stay sane in these disappointing times?

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 2 2007, 04:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

QUOTE (filament @ Wednesday 02/05/07 03:48pm)

Well, way back in the OzeStock days HM might remember me kicking myself for not loading up at 10 cents before GR bought 2 million at that price, after which it never saw 10 cents again. I might get another chance after all. laughingsmiley.gif

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: May 2 2007, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

Any chance that Pfizer will provide a replacement director? The size of their shareholding alone probably doesn't justify it, but maybe it would add credibility to the board. There should be plenty of past examples of big pharmas investing in small companies to provide a clue whether it's likely.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: May 2 2007, 01:04 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: useless on Wednesday 02/05/07 12:49pm

That's a great find, useless. At first glance it's heavy going, though. Have you come across anything interesting in it?

AFAIK, the SP is now below the conversion price of any options, so they are either being sold at a loss or they aren't the reason it keeps going down. It's completely incomprehensible to me. Can anyone else make sense of it?

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 2 2007, 08:56 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: s4rx7 on Tuesday 01/05/07 11:39pm

QUOTE
Suspension seems likely

I don't know what you mean by this. Suspension from the ASX? The company has cash now and is no longer in a financial crisis, so there's no prospect of a suspension any time soon.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 1 2007, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

I don't own any of these but I do bank with them. Pity I didn't get on board years ago. I took too much notice of the business press saying it was expensive around $23 when there was takeover speculation. Oh well, ANZ has been good to me.

Hi wolverine.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: May 1 2007, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

Who would have thought that as soon as we get the long-awaited big pharma deal we get one of the most extended boring periods of SP action we've ever had? I'm falling asleep watching this.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 30 2007, 12:23 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: woteva on Saturday 28/04/07 12:25pm

Wouldn't his estimated wealth include his assets?

Packer or not, the $1.07 doesn't look like a no-brainer if you can buy on market for less.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 26 2007, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

QUOTE (Long Haul @ Thursday 26/04/07 10:04am)

There's no halt request.
"Completes Private Placement & Announces SPP3"

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 26 2007, 08:31 AM


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Posts: 1,598

Watchdog widens shares-rort probe
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/wat...7459785971.html

The key part of the article is:
ASIC is believed to be interested in the purchase of multiple parcels of Genetic Technologies shares late last year by one of Dr Jacobson's private companies, XY Inc. ASIC is looking into claims that the trades were designed to prop up the company's floundering share price to avoid a costly margin call being made on a $10 million loan Dr Jacobson had taken out to finance the conversion of a swag of options.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 03:57 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: diana on Tuesday 24/04/07 02:25pm

It does look a little like that, YM. I have an image of a buyer tiptoeing through a nest of other buyers, trying not to wake them up.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 03:20 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: traveler on Tuesday 24/04/07 03:14pm

Hi traveler.

QUOTE
they sure didn't bother to halt trading on the Nasdaq.


Well, I find that very surprising. That seems to make a halt here pointless.

In those circumstances I agree that a yawner is likely. Well, we had to go through this many times over at PSD, so now it's your turn. tongue.gif

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 03:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

I don't know much about CUV, but just for info, PSD halted quite a few times for capital raisings. In fact, they've halted more often for those than anything else. Whether to halt or not should not be company specific or have anything to do with the "style" of a company's management or whether they've had a history of halting for raisings before. If capital is raised in certain ways then I would think they are obligated to halt when negotiations reach a certain stage. Either that or PSD's halts were unnecessary.

Capital raisings are always annoying, especially when you've got your hopes up for something exciting. But if you are going to have one it's good to have it when the share price is near historical highs, which CUV's is. If the company believes it will need more capital then the time to get it is now, unless they have good reason to believe that the share price will rise further in the near future.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 23 2007, 01:50 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: ad0304s on Monday 23/04/07 12:23pm

I'm sure U.S. trading will be halted as well if an announcement is not made before the market opens there. It would defeat the purpose of a halt if you can just go to another market to get around it.

(I'm just browsing; I don't hold CUV).

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 23 2007, 09:16 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: Brantley on Sunday 22/04/07 09:19am

Hi Brantley. It's good see that people are on the ball spotting inconsistencies like that. Brian must have corrected his list after I posted it here.

omega, it's fun winding up the genuine shareholders, isn't it? Maybe there won't be another raise. If not, how disappointing for you that you won't be able to keep the share price nailed down no matter what good news there is.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 20 2007, 01:27 PM


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Posts: 1,598

QUOTE (kennedyn @ Friday 20/04/07 12:09pm)

I'll say. My holding has nearly doubled in value in a few years, and there's the dividend as well. Should have put everything into this instead of spec stocks like PSD.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 20 2007, 10:20 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: tilford on Friday 20/04/07 10:14am

It's amazing, really. We've been hoping to see a name like that in the top shareholders for five years. It's finally there and we are at near all-time lows!

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 20 2007, 07:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,598

Effective 17/04/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 229,568,994 40.5
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 4.52
3 NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd 23,140,082 4.08
4 Pfizer Inc 22,483,748 3.97
5 Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd 13,630,128 2.4
6 National Nominees Limited 11,339,660 2.0
7 Citicorp Nominees 10,145,296 1.79
8 Midsummer Investment Ltd 10,067,766 1.78
9 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 1.77
10 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited - A/C 2 5,835,621 1.03
Total no. of shares 361,910,924 63.84
Issued Capital
566,939,630 shares on issue
222,815,652 unlisted options

Effective 03/04/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 194,949,580 41.9
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 5.52
3 NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd 23,140,082 4.98
4 Citicorp Nominees 13,935,552 3.00
5 National Nominees Limited 11,339,660 2.44
6 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 2.16
7 Dr Roger Aston 7,193,586 1.55
8 CS Fourth Nominees Pty Ltd 7,131,419 1.53
9 Midsummer Investment Ltd 5,504,274 1.18
10 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited 4,073,687 0.88
Total no. of shares 302,967,469 65.14
Issued Capital
465,231,697 shares on issue
222,815,652 unlisted options

Welcome to SS and PSD, peterm1973.

Pess
  Forum: By Share Code

Pessimist
Posted on: Apr 19 2007, 02:20 PM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: diana on Thursday 19/04/07 01:49pm

I don't recall any Brachysil-specific ire directed at GR, YM. In fact, I don't recall anyone here suggesting that it was a hoax or not really a highly promising cancer treatment. The criticism of GR has been more about nebulous big-pharma collaborations, licence agreements and general blue-sky spruiking of a company that, in reality, was fast going down the gurgler. Oh, and there was his $4 million profit from selling options when everyone believed him. GR has already made his fortune out of PSD, but most other investors have lost theirs.

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Posted on: Apr 19 2007, 01:16 PM


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In reply to: lbs on Thursday 19/04/07 12:12pm

Maybe. I know that document was "updated" in March this year, but I wonder if it's really up-to-date. Feb 2007 might have been the expected completion date, but was it really completed? It's just strange that we've heard nothing indicating that a release of trial results is imminent, and there's nothing in the briefing about it.

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Posted on: Apr 19 2007, 10:50 AM


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In reply to: BSA on Thursday 19/04/07 10:20am

Maybe we are at lows because of the 1/3 Sandell equity conversion mentioned in the briefing (I've forgotten how many shares are involved there).

Literally not a single word about Biosilicon drug delivery in the briefing, which is a good indicator of where it's at. But it's reassuring that the Brachysil trial is still on the road, at least for pancreatic cancer. What about Brachysil for liver cancer, though?

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Posted on: Apr 16 2007, 02:31 PM


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In reply to: diana on Monday 16/04/07 02:26pm

I thought I read in the SSPP stuff that WMT had interests in Tanzania, but the US newsletter doesn't mention Africa.

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Posted on: Apr 16 2007, 10:47 AM


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I guess the SSPP is going to be massively over-subscribed. Who wouldn't take it up now?

I was a shareholder of the old WMT when it disappeared from the ASX without even a letter explaining the situation. I thought it must have gone under and even told my tax agent to write it off, and then it came back to life. After the restructure I was left with 400 measly shares, but that's enough to get me into the SSPP. I might buy more on market as well, but maybe it's best to wait until people sell their SSPP shares.

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Posted on: Apr 16 2007, 09:29 AM


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Posted by 'sarge17' on HC.

An extract from Bausch and Lomb's fourth quarter report foreshadows expectations for Retisert below (second last paragraph).

Expectations for 2007.

The Company's pharmaceuticals category sales are projected to grow 10 to 12 percent, due to:

Several new product introductions, including the recently acquired and launched antihistamine product, Alaway;
additional formulations for the Company's lines of ocular nutritional products;
a new over-the-counter dry eye product later in the year; and the introduction of several products in a new preservative free multi-dose delivery format.
Continued increases in prescriptions written and market share gains for the Company's lines of products containing loteprednol etabonate.
Continued sales momentum for the Retisert® drug delivery implant.
A return to more normalized growth levels for the Freda business in 2007, reflecting recovery from the negative effects of the MoistureLoc recall, and sales gains from the launch of some Bausch & Lomb-developed products, including Lotemax ophthalmic suspension and Ocuvite® eye vitamins.

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Posted on: Apr 16 2007, 09:15 AM


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I don't think this has been posted here. It contains some interesting analysis.

Pfizer spies pSivida's injectable eye treatment
by Anna Lewcook 04/04/2007

Pfizer has homed in pSivida's controlled release drug delivery technology, signing a research and licensing deal worth $165m (?123.5m) and focusing keenly on the company's Medidur technology for new ophthalmic applications.

The Medidur product, currently in Phase III trials, is a tiny injectable device 3mm long and 0.37mm in diameter. The insert is being studied as a way of delivering fluocinolone acetonide (a corticosteroid) to treat diabetic macular edema (DME), and has been designed to last 18 to 36 months in the eye, releasing controlled amount of drug into the eye daily.

According to current licensees Alimera Sciences, the Medidur product releases the smallest amount of drug currently available for treating DME, with 0.2 or 0.5 micrograms of drug delivered to the retina each day.

Under the terms of the Pfizer/pSivida agreement, pSivida will receive up to $155m in development and related milestones, and the two companies will work together to develop ophthalmic products based on the company's sustained drug release technology.

Pfizer will fund the joint research programme. Pfizer will have an exclusive license to market all products developed as part of the research partnership in ophthalmic applications, and while paying pSivida a royalty on net sales the company can also terminate the agreement on 60 days notice without cause.

pSivida also has another proprietary drug delivery technology, BioSilicon, based on nanostructured porous silicon which is currently being evaluated by five undisclosed global pharma companies for the controlled release of compounds from injectable formulations.

The company is currently exploring ways of applying the BioSilicon technology, currently in Phase I trials, to drug delivery treatments to the back of the eye.

In January last year the, pSivida's licensing partner Alimera announced several new agreements concerning Medidur - involving "three of the five largest global pharmaceutical companies" - to evaluate the technology to release developmental compounds for the treatment of other eye diseases.

pSivida has been working with Alimera Sciences, a pharmaceutical firm specialising in the ophthalmic industry, to develop and market Medidur for DME since 2005.

There are currently no treatments available for DME that have US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval, and with the Medidur product having been granted fast-track status by the FDA the companies could be backing a winner that will give them an edge in an underserved market.

At present, the only approved option for patients suffering from DME involves laser photocoagulation therapy, which can leave irreversible blind spots. So for the half a million treatable cases of DME in the US alone, an alternative therapy would seem to have fairly open market for the time being.

Another major pharma, Eli Lilly, was only last month forced to hold back plans for its drug Arxxant (ruboxistaurin), an oral therapy intended to treat blindness caused by diabetes. Following FDA claims that the drug, which the company had been working on for ten years, was not up to scratch, Lilly withdrew its approval application for the product in the EU.

With some analysts forecasting that Arxxant would be a blockbuster with sales of around $1.1bn by 2010, the news would have hit the company hard - but could be music to the ears of other pharmas developing treatments for diabetes-related eye complications.

Pfizer already has a few ophthalmic products on the market, Xalatan (latanoprost) for open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension, and Macugen (pegaptanib sodium) for age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

The company received approval for Macugen in the EU in January 2006, and is currently in negotiations to return the US rights to the product to its alliance partner OSI Pharmaceuticals in exchange for a royalty-free license to market Macugen outside the US.

In addition to Xalatan the company also has Xalacom, the only fixed combination prostaglandin (Xalatan) and beta blocker, which is primarily available in European markets also for glaucoma and ocular hypertension. Combined, Xalatan and Xalacom generated almost $1.5bn for the company over 2006.
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Posted on: Apr 13 2007, 10:22 AM


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In reply to: King Baz on Friday 13/04/07 09:57am

Well, look on the bright side. AION was seed funded with AUD 1.2 million, so they've tripled their money. tongue.gif

Also, it means that Biosilicon has uses beyond Brachysil after all. This is the first solid evidence (as opposed to GR spin) we've had that AION really has commercial opportunities. It's unfortunate that we won't get anything out of it other than the US $3 million, but it does validate Biosilicon to some extent.

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Posted on: Apr 12 2007, 08:28 PM


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In reply to: chooka on Thursday 12/04/07 07:07pm

chooka, my guess is that the Brachysil trials are on hold because of PSD's cash shortage. PSD never wants to give us updates if the news is bad, so we don't hear about significant events such as the suspension of trials. I'm only guessing, but it's been too long now not to have got some progress on the liver cancer phase IIb trial if it went ahead to completion.

And I've said before that I think - and again this is only a guess based on hearing nothing year after year - that Biosilicon drug delivery probably has serious technical difficulties. I think it's as dead as a dodo.

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Posted on: Apr 12 2007, 03:31 PM


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In reply to: astoria on Thursday 12/04/07 02:52pm

You're welcome to stick around as far as I'm concerned. No need to take a break.

s4, astoria has been ahead of the game on occasions.

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Posted on: Apr 12 2007, 03:18 PM


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In reply to: dr_dazmo on Thursday 12/04/07 02:21pm

Their plan to do that was actually announced on 28 Feb with the half-year report. The upshot is the same though - running out of cash.

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Posted on: Apr 12 2007, 01:07 PM


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QUOTE (oldgolfer @ Friday 23/03/07 09:56am)

Hi og. Well, maybe the directors weren't happy with the share price either. MD Conor Graham is gone as of today. The announcement calls it a 'departure', not a resignation, and there is no thanks for his long service, so I can only conclude that he was sacked. Obviously not all is well there at the moment.

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Posted on: Apr 12 2007, 10:27 AM


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In reply to: useless on Thursday 12/04/07 10:15am

Yes, this is getting ridiculous. Is omega cutting his losses now instead of taking a few cents' profit? Maybe the prospect of the Sandell debt being converted into yet more equity was the last straw for some people. I'd rather they paid it in cash if they can. Every dilution weighs down the share price forever.

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Posted on: Apr 11 2007, 07:55 PM


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In reply to: s4rx7 on Wednesday 11/04/07 03:38pm

Hi s4. It's nice of you to drop in. It's been a long time.

You'll be disappointed to hear me say that I don't think the effects of the Pfizer deal are anywhere near settled yet. As I said earlier, PSD's desperation for cash has led to capital raisings that have murdered long-term shareholders like myself with massive dilution. When (if?) the options are converted and the Sandell notes are all done and dusted I wouldn't be surprised if we are near 1 billion shares on issue. That's a $1 billion company if we get back to just a $1 share price. Gone are the days when we could dream of a $5 or $10 share price when there were only 100 million issued shares, unless something extraordinary happens. But we still might do a lot better than we are at the moment.

It's hard to know whether we are really trading around the capitalization that the market thinks we're worth, or whether all those option holders are killing us because they don't have much reason to hang on to their shares. If we do better they just convert their options and make another profit. A few months ago it seemed touch and go whether PSD would survive, but they seem through the worst of it now. PSD has attracted a lot of attention from this deal, and more doors could open as a result. It's early days post-Pfizer, so I'm going to be a glutton for punishment and hang on to see what happens.

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Posted on: Apr 11 2007, 10:57 AM


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In reply to: motorway on Wednesday 11/04/07 10:44am

Yes, all these placements have really smashed the long-term shareholders, but I didn't think things bad enough to justify a share price of 0.23 even taking into account a reasonable outcome for the Pfizer deal, which a lot of people would be betting on occurring.

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Posted on: Apr 11 2007, 10:23 AM


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In reply to: tilford on Wednesday 11/04/07 09:51am

Musical chairs mostly.

Effective 03/04/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 194,949,580 41.9
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 5.52
3 NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd 23,140,082 4.98
4 Citicorp Nominees 13,935,552 3.00
5 National Nominees Limited 11,339,660 2.44
6 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 2.16
7 Dr Roger Aston 7,193,586 1.55
8 CS Fourth Nominees Pty Ltd 7,131,419 1.53
9 Midsummer Investment Ltd 5,504,274 1.18
10 HSBC Custody Nominees (AUST) Limited 4,073,687 0.88
Total no. of shares 302,967,469 65.14
Issued Capital
465,231,697 shares on issue
222,815,652 unlisted options

Changes since 27/3:
ANZ Nominees -8,395,072
Citicorp Nominees +7,360,854
CS Fourth Nominees +1,231,051
Out: Camofi Master LDC (5,504,274)
In: HSBC Custody Nominees
Top 10 aggregate -1,233,754

I'm amazed by the continuing weakness in the SP. It's as though the deal is worthless.

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Posted on: Apr 5 2007, 02:14 PM


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In reply to: diana on Thursday 05/04/07 02:10pm

Okay, forgot it was a short day. It still seemed to happen a little earlier than other stocks, and there was an announcement, but a boring one. It just looks like a formalization of the issued shares.

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Posted on: Apr 5 2007, 02:05 PM


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Pre-open.

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Posted on: Apr 5 2007, 01:04 PM


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In reply to: diana on Thursday 05/04/07 12:46pm

Speaking of HC, you can't write "Sharescene" in a post there on the grounds that it is a "profanity". laughingsmiley.gif

There's a huge increase in traffic on the boards I've seen. The Yahoo PSDV board barely gets a post a day normally, but there were too many to read overnight (especially with that horrible interface). Maybe there's even a post or two on OzeStock, but that's probably too much to ask (haven't checked). If nothing else, the company has certainly attracted attention.

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Posted on: Apr 5 2007, 10:11 AM


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In reply to: omegaoil on Thursday 05/04/07 10:06am

So you are one of the "mates" and on the inside?

We might be about to fall below the pre-Pfizer price. laughingsmiley.gif

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Posted on: Apr 5 2007, 09:55 AM


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In reply to: davesss on Thursday 05/04/07 08:46am

davesss, by my calculation if all options were exercised there would be 742 million shares. This includes today's capital raising, but not the shares issued to Pfizer (the number and price of which wasn't given) or any shares issued in relation to one or more of those complicated capital raisings (such as Sandell), since I've never been able to unravel what they mean.

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Posted on: Apr 5 2007, 08:35 AM


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In reply to: useless on Thursday 05/04/07 07:18am

Thanks, useless. I'm at a loss to understand why this would be of no interest to Pfizer shareholders. Apart from the cost to be borne by Pfizer, there's the potential long-term upside for them. To fork out $200 million you are probably expecting to make billions in return. And Pfizer thinks this is not even worth mentioning?

Thanks, Bob, for the info.

Before the recent run-up from the low 0.20s PSD was worth about $100 million. Add $200 million and you are tripling its size, so as time goes on, assuming the Pfizer collaboration progresses and they don't throw us on the scrap heap, the price has to rise steadily. It might not triple because of all those options hanging over us - PSD is drowning in shares - but it's got to go up.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 03:39 PM


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In reply to: useless on Wednesday 04/04/07 03:29pm

Gee, even for most governments $200 million isn't pocket change, so I would have thought that it's big enough to have to disclose, otherwise I would really wonder about their disclosure rules. As for not wanting to disclose, the news is out, so all their competitors know about it. They aren't going to keep it from anyone who matters by staying quiet. As for what they disclose, maybe no more than PSD, but it's simply the exposure of PSDV by Pfizer that could get a lot of people very interested in PSDV.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 03:12 PM


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In reply to: useless on Wednesday 04/04/07 02:46pm

Something to watch for is Pfizer's announcement to the US market tonight ($200 million isn't chickenfeed even for them, so I assume there will be one). It will be interesting to read their take on it. It will also alert all Pfizer watchers - and there must be a lot of them - to PSDV. It should increase PSDV's profile enormously.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 02:54 PM


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In reply to: omegaoil on Wednesday 04/04/07 01:39pm

Stop it, omega. You're holding it down.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 01:24 PM


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Some signs now that buyers are beginning to make headway against the huge resistance.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 12:21 PM


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In reply to: diana on Wednesday 04/04/07 12:15pm

No one wants me to be wrong more than I do, YM.

Yes, the money situation might be the only reason Brachysil has not been mentioned recently, which is why I haven't given up on it. But saying that there are DD applications doesn't mean they've got them to work. I'm still discounting DD as a viable application for Biosilicon.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 12:10 PM


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In reply to: bello on Wednesday 04/04/07 12:06pm

Biosilicon has hardly been heard of for ages, and IMO will only be heard of in relation to Brachysil (and even that now is doubtful after its devaluation). I'd be very surprised if this deal, or any future drug delivery deal, involves Biosilicon. Only CDS had viable DD, IMO.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 11:40 AM


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Might as well post it for the record. No big jump yet, so it's either going to take time or something like this was already factored in.

ASX/Media RELEASE 4 April 2007
pSivida signs A$203 million (US$165 million) Collaborative Research and Licensing Agreement with Pfizer

Boston, MA. and Perth, Australia - pSivida Limited (NASDAQ:PSDV, ASX:PSD, Xetra:PSI), today announced it has signed an exclusive worldwide Collaborative Research and License Agreement with Pfizer Inc. (PFE: NYSE) for pSivida's controlled drug delivery technologies, including the MedidurTM technology, in ophthalmic applications.

Under the terms of the agreement, pSivida will receive up to A$191m (US$155m) in development and sales related milestones. The two companies will work together on a joint research program aimed at developing ophthalmic products using pSivida's sustained drug delivery technology. In addition to milestone payments, Pfizer will fund the cost of the joint research program. Pfizer will have an exclusive license to market all products developed as part of this research collaboration in ophthalmic applications and will pay pSivida a royalty on net sales of those products. Pfizer may terminate the agreement on 60 days notice without cause.

In addition to the development and sales milestones and payment of the cost of the joint research program, Pfizer has agreed to invest A$6.1m (US$5m) in ordinary shares of pSivida upon entering into the License Agreement, the proceeds of which will be held in escrow until such proceeds can be used (together with other cash available to pSivida) to redeem an outstanding convertible note. If pSivida does not repay the full amount outstanding under the convertible note prior to June 4, 2007, Pfizer may elect during the 90 day period following June 9, 2007 to cause pSivida to return the A$6.1m (US$5m) held in escrow, in which case the license agreement would terminate. Pfizer has also agreed to invest an additional A$6.1m (US$5m) in pSivida common equity in the future, subject to certain conditions.

"We believe this collaboration is another significant validation of the drug delivery systems that pSivida has been developing since its founding," said Dr. Paul Ashton, Managing Director, pSivida Limited. "pSivida plans to pursue development and additional collaborations exploiting our innovative drug delivery technologies in other parts of the body."

MedidurTM is a tiny, injectable device designed for the sustained release of drugs and is currently being studied for the treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema (DME), the leading cause of blindness for Americans under the age of 65. MedidurTM in combination with Fluocinolone Acetonide is in Phase III clinical trials in DME in collaboration with Alimera Sciences Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the ophthalmic industry.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 10:58 AM


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In reply to: david_j_c on Wednesday 04/04/07 10:51am

If trading between the exchanges is as easy as some here say it is (e.g., buy on Nasdaq and sell on ASX), then I guess the number varies every day. But the total shares on issue (including ADRs x 10) is 464,614,407. There are also 222,815,652 unlisted options.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 10:10 AM


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QUOTE (useless @ Wednesday 04/04/07 10:07am)

And how do they know there's more coming? I just get a "news" flag, not two of them.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 09:55 AM


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I can hardly believe this.

But if I read it right they have money coming in, so that's something.

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 09:51 AM


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In reply to: tilford on Wednesday 04/04/07 09:49am

Well, no.
"pSivida redeems Sandell Convertible Note"

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Posted on: Apr 4 2007, 09:43 AM


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In reply to: useless on Wednesday 04/04/07 09:23am

Well, at least we know they have to say something in the next 30 minutes, otherwise trading will resume. Their asking for only two days suggests that they were pretty sure it would all be sewn up by this morning, so I still think we'll get it. They are probably just finishing the anouncement, or the ASX has some queries about it.

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Posted on: Apr 3 2007, 02:05 PM


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It's looking more and more as though it will either be tomorrow or that the US market will get first bite at it tonight.

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Posted on: Apr 2 2007, 04:01 PM


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In reply to: diana on Monday 02/04/07 03:49pm

Yes, and they are decent sizes too, YM. But I don't think there are enough yet to put them down to leaks. They are probably just speculators taking a punt.

I didn't read page 2 of the halt. I'm so used to halts saying the same thing that I only read half a sentence. Tomorrow is the day.

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Posted on: Apr 2 2007, 02:48 PM


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In reply to: astoria on Monday 02/04/07 02:28pm

No, but it's a good idea if you don't want to wait. Now that we are halted there is no insider trading issue with some people getting market sensitive news first, as long as everyone gets it before trading resumes (though I don't know if it's actually legal for Brian to do that). OTOH, if there's any chance of a last-minute hitch and no deal, the caller would know roughly what sort of deal would be in the works with another pharma, and then there would be an insider trading issue.

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Posted on: Apr 2 2007, 11:42 AM


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In reply to: diana on Monday 02/04/07 11:09am

...or the next day. I thought all halts were automatic 3-day deals, even when they're lifted after an hour, but this one is only two. Most halts have been boring let-downs - capital raisings and such - but they wouldn't do that to the current expectant market, would they?

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Posted on: Apr 2 2007, 09:51 AM


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Trading halt.

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Posted on: Mar 30 2007, 03:33 PM


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In reply to: bello on Friday 30/03/07 11:32am

Well, GR was all BS, IMO.

Today has been a little disappointing after yesterday's positive speeding ticket.

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Posted on: Mar 30 2007, 11:09 AM


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QUOTE (bello @ Friday 30/03/07 11:01am)

At this stage the exclusivity is only for the negotiations, but you would think that it would extend to the deal itself. There's no point locking other pharmas out now but letting them in later. We have to trust PSD's negotiators to make the best deal they can. I'm sure they know that if the deal is exclusive it has to be a good one to compensate for no deals with anyone else.

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Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 04:10 PM


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Oh well. Maybe tomorrow. I wonder if the speeding ticket response was the update we might otherwise have got tomorrow.

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Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 03:58 PM


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0.30 looks on the cards before the day is out.

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Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 03:34 PM


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In reply to: Pessimist on Thursday 29/03/07 03:20pm

Very nice response to the ASX. Exactly what the doctor ordered (and one or two people here; Tilford, Diana?). More frenzied buying now I would think.

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Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 03:20 PM


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In reply to: jbeatty on Thursday 29/03/07 03:19pm

Speeding ticket.

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Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 11:44 AM


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In reply to: tilford on Thursday 29/03/07 11:31am

Thanks, tilford. Too many changes, including three replacements in the list, to bother working out all the differences.

I hope you're right about Aston. We'll have to see if we get a director's interest notice to make sure he's not just shuffling shares around. We never got one when his total went down. I would have thought that he'd have inside information on the pharma deal and wouldn't be able to buy at the moment.

Effective 27/03/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 203,344,652 43.76
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 5.52
3 NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd 23,140,082 4.98
4 National Nominees Limited 11,339,660 2.44
5 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 2.16
6 Dr Roger Aston 7,193,586 1.55
7 Citicorp Nominees 6,574,698 1.42
8 CS Fourth Nominees Pty Ltd 5,900,368 1.27
9 Camofi Master LDC 5,504,274 1.18
10 Midsummer Investment Ltd 5,504,274 1.18
Total no. of shares 304,201,223 65.46
Issued Capital
464,614,407 shares on issue
222,815,652 unlisted options

Effective 13/03/2007
No. Holder %
1 ANZ Nominees Limited 212,836,722 45.81
2 QinetiQ Limited 25,646,426 5.52
3 NIAKO Investments Pty Ltd 23,140,082 4.98
4 HSBC Custody Nominees A/C #2 15,892,091 3.42
5 QinetiQ Holdings Limited 10,053,203 2.16
6 Camofi Master LDC 5,504,274 1.18
7 Midsummer Investment Ltd 5,504,274 1.18
8 Dr Roger Aston 5,498,586 1.17
9 Crescent International Ltd 4,403,419 0.95
10 Absolute Return Europe Fund 4,000,000 0.86

In: National Nominees, Citicorp Nominees, CS Fourth Nominees
Out: HSBC Custody Nominees A/C #2, Crescent International Ltd, Absolute Return Europe Fund

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 10:58 AM


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In reply to: diana on Thursday 29/03/07 10:49am

I'm not expecting the worst. I only meant that I'm expecting to have to wait longer before a deal is finalized. I'm actually very hopeful for something big, especially looking at the recent market action, but I'm also a little apprehensive about why it's taking so long.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 10:41 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Wednesday 28/03/07 05:25pm

Another morning dump, but buyers have overcome it and it's really moving forward now. No announcement again. Brian is leaving it to the last minute, so I'm not expecting a lot from it.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 27 2007, 02:53 PM


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I'm getting set for an extension of the negotiations, or something else. If they haven't wrapped it up by now there's no reason to expect that they'll magically come to an agreement in the short time remaining.

Edit: The announcement was on 27 December, so technically time is up today.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 27 2007, 07:52 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Monday 26/03/07 11:36pm

I didn't think that you could simply buy ADSs in the U.S. and sell them as shares in Australia. Somehow you have to transfer them from one market to the other.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 26 2007, 03:32 PM


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In reply to: Bob Roberts on Monday 26/03/07 03:28pm

The whole thing sounds redundant then. When would a company ever issue shares without disclosing the fact? I'd be interested in an example scenario to which that part of the act would actually be relevant.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 26 2007, 11:13 AM


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In reply to: astoria on Monday 26/03/07 12:03pm

Yes, at least that many options will provide more cash for the company. However, in spite of the conversion time lag, their existence is going to make selling of the issued shares far more likely. The options cost nothing, so the placement recipients can happily sell their shares and make their small profit knowing that they are only one third of their effective holdings. If the share price falls, they were right to sell when they did, and if it rises they convert their options and make a bigger profit. Only those supremely confident about the future of the company wouldn't follow that path, which is why I don't think this is a normal situation.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 26 2007, 10:39 AM


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In reply to: motorway on Monday 26/03/07 11:04am

The placement shares are a little different. They were issued at 23 cents along with two free options exercisable at 23 cents. The announcement didn't mention any conditions on conversion of the options apart from the four year limit, so the market is effectively awash with 150 million shares costing 23 cents each. You just know that a large fraction of those shares are going to be sold at anything above 23 cents, and there's no way that buyers can meet selling of that magnitude. It is not a normal situation that a share price is capped by such a massive ceiling. But I agree that it won't matter in the long term because the sellers are not going to stupidly make only 2 cents profit if it's obvious they can get more.

BSA, the criticism of omega was only on the understanding that the placement shares should not have been sold according to the placement agreement. If that's not the case then I don't have an issue. I wasn't being critical in my last post; I just want to get the situation regarding those 50 million shares and 100 million options clear.

Pess

P.S. Trivia: With this post I've finally reached 1197 posts, one more than s4 at the top of PSD's post-count list.
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 26 2007, 09:31 AM


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QUOTE (omegaoil @ Monday 26/03/07 02:56am)

So, the bottom line is that you and the other placement recipients who collectively received 50 million shares are going to keep the share price nailed down to near 23 cents whenever it tries to move up - until/unless you realize that it's ridiculously low.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 23 2007, 11:16 AM


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In reply to: omegaoil on Friday 23/03/07 11:25am

The situation looks pretty straightforward if you were required to agree to the condition posted by astoria. Your being a "sophisticated/professional investor" is irrelevant. If the condition is true you weren't supposed to sell to someone who doesn't fit that description. I don't know how the term is defined, but I'm sure that selling on the market wouldn't satisfy it.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 23 2007, 07:57 AM


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Well, if you're right that omegaoil was very naughty to sell placement shares then there's no problem. All I'm saying is that if there are 50 million shares out there that were issued at 23 cents and they're all freely tradeable now, then they are going to keep selling them at anything above 23 cents until they have very good reasons to believe that they are selling them too low. The pharma deal may change that, depending on the details.

Pess
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Pessimist
Posted on: Mar 23 2007, 07:21 AM


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Posts: 1,598

In reply to: omegaoil on Friday 23/03/07 12:36am

It sounds like we are never going to get clear of 23 cents until that price clearly undervalues the company based on hard figures from revenue or reliably expected revenue. While the company's value is all in speculation you're never going to get enough buyers to drive the price through those 50 million shares continually being sold above 23 cents.

Pess
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