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mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

At the risk of being a merchant of doom, I can't help but see so many parralells between the build up to the GFC and current conditions.


[quote]James Gorman is the Chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley. He also sits on the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed), one of Morgan Stanley’s regulators.

The New York Fed is one of 12 regional Federal Reserve banks – but the only one willing to turn on a multi-trillion dollar money funnel to Wall Street’s mega banks when they need a secret bailout. Since September 17 of this year, the New York Fed has pumped upwards of $3 trillion in revolving loans to trading houses on Wall Street, without naming which firms are getting the money and why they’re getting it. From December 2007 to the middle of 2010, the New York Fed turned on its money funnel to Wall Street to the tune of $29 trillion – a fact it battled in court for years to keep secret.

Today, the New York Fed will only say that it’s making these new loans, which tally up to hundreds of billions of dollars each week, to some of its 24 “primary dealers.” For the most part, those “primary dealers” are the high-risk trading units of big commercial banks in the U.S. and abroad. (See list below.)

One of the primary dealers that is eligible to be taking these multi-billion dollar loans from the New York Fed is Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC. Morgan Stanley describes that unit as follows: “Its businesses include securities underwriting and distribution; financial advisory services, including advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, real estate and project finance; sales, trading, financing and market-making activities in equity and fixed income securities and related products, and other instruments including foreign exchange and commodities futures; and prime brokerage services.”

At 11:36 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day, when households across America were either watching the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade on TV or hustling in the kitchen, Bloomberg News dropped the bombshell report that foreign currency traders at Morgan Stanley had hidden a trading loss of upwards of $140 million. Two of the traders involved in the losses were based in London, according to the Bloomberg report.

There are a number of curious and noteworthy aspects to this report. First, only Bloomberg News was privy to this information. Morgan Stanley had not informed its shareholders via any public statement nor had it informed the Securities and Exchange Commission via a public filing. Thus it is also highly likely that it had not informed the New York Fed, another of its regulators, despite the fact that its CEO, James Gorman, sits on the Board of the New York Fed. The Bloomberg article suggests that the firm itself is just now investigating what actually happened, meaning that an outside news agency attempting to place a realistic figure on the amount of the losses is suspect at best.

In 2012, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, called news reports of its derivative trading losses in London “a tempest in a teapot.” Those hidden trading losses turned out to be over $6.2 billion.
Morgan Stanley, however, can top JPMorgan’s historic trading loss. During the financial crisis, one of Morgan Stanley’s traders, Howie Hubler, lost $9 billion betting on subprime debt. But Morgan Stanley survived the financial crisis because the New York Fed secretly pumped more than $2 trillion into Morgan Stanley from 2007 to the middle of 2010 according to a Fed audit performed by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and released to the public in July 2011. The audit occurred as the result of an amendment attached to the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 by Senator Bernie Sanders and others.

At the outset of the financial crisis, Morgan Stanley was predominantly an investment bank and a large retail brokerage firm which was not eligible to borrow from the Fed’s Discount Window, which was restricted to deposit-taking banks. In order to funnel trillions of dollars to the trading houses on Wall Street, the New York Fed created an alphabet soup of loan programs. One of those programs was called PDCF (Primary Dealer Credit Facility). For the first time in history, under that program, the New York Fed funneled $8.9 trillion to the trading houses on Wall Street, in many cases taking the unprecedented action of accepting stocks and junk bonds as collateral – at a time when both of those markets were in freefall.

In 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs became bank holding companies, subject to regulation by the New York Fed and with access to its Discount Window./quote]

I am not sure how many people know that the US FED is not a statury government body, but is in fact a private firm, outside of the control and management of the Government.
If anyone needed further proof that the US monetary system is being used and abused by large financial firms, surely this is it.

Full article HERE

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 08:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973


Wasnt sure whether to post this in Climate Change or Humour.


FromMr Armstrong

QUOTE
LETTER FROM A CONSTITUENT ABOUT HOW HE ADVISED HIS TEENAGE DAUGHTER ON ‘CLIMATE CHANGE’:

After our daughter of fifteen years of age was moved to tears by the speech of Greta Thunberg at the UN the other day, she became angry with our generation “who had been doing nothing for thirty years.”

So, we decided to help her prevent what the girl on TV announced of “massive eradication and the disappearance of entire ecosystems.”

We are now committed to give our daughter a future again, by doing our part to help cool the planet four degrees.

From now on she will go to school on a bicycle, because driving her by car costs fuel, and fuel puts emissions into the atmosphere. Of course it will be winter soon and then she will want to go by bus, but cycling through the freezing builds resilience.

Of course, she is now asking for an electric bicycle, but we have shown her the devastation caused to the areas of the planet as a result of mining for the extraction of Lithium and other minerals used to make batteries for electric bicycles, so she will be pedaling, or walking.

Which will not harm her, or the planet. We used to cycle and walk to school too.

Since the girl on TV demanded “we need to get rid of our dependency on fossil fuels” and our daughter agreed with her, we have disconnected the heat vent in her room. The temperature is now dropping to twelve degrees in the evening, and will drop below freezing in the winter, we have promised to buy her an extra sweater, hat, tights, gloves and a blanket.

For the same reason we have decided that from now on she only takes a cold shower. She will wash her clothes by hand, with a wooden washboard, because the washing machine is simply a power consumer and since the dryer uses natural gas, she will hang her clothes on the clothes line to dry, just like my parents and grandparents used to do.

Speaking of clothes, the ones that she currently has are all synthetic, so made from petroleum. Therefore on Monday, we will bring all her designer clothing to the secondhand shop.

We have found an eco store where the only clothing they sell is made from undyed and unbleached linen and jute. Also can’t have clothes made on wool, because the emissions from farting sheep are supposedly causing bad weather.

It shouldn’t matter that it looks good on her, or that she is going to be laughed at, dressing in colorless, bland clothes and without a wireless bra, but that is the price she has to pay for the benefit of The Climate.

Cotton is out of the question, as it comes from distant lands and pesticides are used for it. Very bad for the environment.
We just saw on her Instagram that she’s pretty angry with us. This was not our intention.

From now on, at 7 p.m. We will turn off the WiFi and we will only switch it on again the next day after dinner for two hours. In this way we will save on electricity, so she is not bothered by electro-stress and will be totally isolated from the outside world. This way, she can concentrate solely on her homework. At eleven o’clock in the evening we will pull the breaker to shut the power off to her room, so she knows that dark is really dark. That will save a lot of CO2.

She will no longer be participating in winter sports to ski lodges and resorts, nor will she be going on anymore vacations with us, because our vacation destinations are practically inaccessible by bicycle.

Since our daughter fully agrees with the girl on TV that the CO2 emissions and footprints of her great-grandparents are to blame for ‘killing our planet’, what all this simply means, is that she also has to live like her great-grandparents and they never had a holiday, a car or even a bicycle.

We haven’t talked about the carbon footprint of food yet.

Zero CO2 footprint means no meat, no fish and no poultry, but also no meat substitutes that are based on soy (after all, that grows in farmers fields, that use machinery to harvest the beans, trucks to transport to the processing plants, where more energy is used, then trucked to the packaging/canning plants, and trucked once again to the stores) and also no imported food, because that has a negative ecological effect. And absolutely no chocolate from Africa, no coffee from South America and no tea from Asia.

Only homegrown potatoes, vegetables and fruit that have been grown in local cold soil, because greenhouses run on boilers, piped in CO2 and artificial light. Apparently, these things are also bad for The Climate. We will teach her how to grow her own food.

Bread is still possible, but butter, milk, cheese and yogurt, cottage cheese and cream come from cows and they emit CO2. No more margarine and no oils will be used for the frying pan, because that fat is palm oil from plantations in Borneo where rain forests first grew.

No ice cream in the summer. No soft drinks and no energy drinks, as the bubbles are CO2.

We will also ban all plastic, because it comes from chemical factories. Everything made of steel and aluminum must also be removed. Have you ever seen the amount of energy a blast furnace consumes or an aluminum smelter? All bad for the climate!

We will replace her memory foam pillow top mattress, with a jute bag filled with straw, with a horse hair pillow.

And finally, she will no longer be using makeup, soap, shampoo, cream, lotion, conditioner, toothpaste and medication. Facewashers will all be linen, that she can wash by hand, with her wooden washboard, just like her female ancestors did before climate change made her angry at us for destroying her future.

In this way we will help her to do her part to prevent mass extinction, water levels rising and the disappearance of entire ecosystems.

If she truly believes she wants to walk the talk of the girl on TV, she will gladly accept and happily embrace her new way of life.


mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 08:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Given that what happens in the states often follows on here some time later, it might be worth the while to look at the short term lenders such as afterpay etc in OZ,
Worth shorting???

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 07:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

For those with memories long enough to remember what triggered the GFC 10 years ago, disturbing news on the sub prime market will give cause for angst.
The fact that we have a higher delinquency rate now than during the GFC is scary. And its only going to get worse.

QUOTE
OK, we’ve got a situation in subprime consumer loans. The delinquency rate on credit-card loan balances at the nearly 5,000 smaller commercial banks in the United States – this means all banks except the largest 100 – is blowing out, according to Federal Reserve data. In the third quarter, the delinquency rate at these banks rose to 6.25%. That’s higher even than during the peak of the Financial Crisis.

Back in 2016, the credit-card delinquency rate at these banks was in the 3% range. It has more than doubled in two years.

Credit card balances are considered delinquent when they’re 30 days or more past due. This delinquency rate means that out of the banks total credit card balances, 6.25% are 30 days or more past due. This is a disturbingly large rate.

But delinquencies are a flow. Balances are removed from the delinquency basket either when the customer cures the delinquency, such as catching up with past-due payments, or when the bank “charges off” the delinquent balance against its loan loss reserves. But as these delinquent balances were taken out of the delinquency basket, even more new delinquencies fell into the basket, and the delinquency rate rose.
What’s Behind the Subprime Consumer Loan Implosion?
by Wolf Richter • Nov 28, 2019 • 110 Comments
These are the good times, but why are subprime credit cards, auto loans, and short-term installment loans blowing out?
This is the transcript from my podcast last Sunday, THE WOLF STREET REPORT:
OK, we’ve got a situation in subprime consumer loans. The delinquency rate on credit-card loan balances at the nearly 5,000 smaller commercial banks in the United States – this means all banks except the largest 100 – is blowing out, according to Federal Reserve data. In the third quarter, the delinquency rate at these banks rose to 6.25%. That’s higher even than during the peak of the Financial Crisis.

Back in 2016, the credit-card delinquency rate at these banks was in the 3% range. It has more than doubled in two years.

Credit card balances are considered delinquent when they’re 30 days or more past due. This delinquency rate means that out of the banks total credit card balances, 6.25% are 30 days or more past due. This is a disturbingly large rate.

But delinquencies are a flow. Balances are removed from the delinquency basket either when the customer cures the delinquency, such as catching up with past-due payments, or when the bank “charges off” the delinquent balance against its loan loss reserves. But as these delinquent balances were taken out of the delinquency basket, even more new delinquencies fell into the basket, and the delinquency rate rose.

Subprime auto loans have also been blowing out. In the third quarter, the serious delinquency rate of the $1.3 trillion in auto loans has risen to 4.71%, the highest since the worst months of the Financial Crisis, when the auto industry collapsed, and when the US was facing the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression. In the third quarter, about 21% of all subprime auto loans were seriously delinquent – meaning 90 days past due.

Then we got another glimpse of this upheaval in subprime with some of the specialized lenders that cater to them.

For example, World Acceptance Corp., which does small short-term consumer installment loans, and some larger medium-term loans to people who need money desperately and have subprime credit ratings. Like most specialized subprime lenders, World Acceptance charges blistering interest rates, but then it also has large default rates.

It reported disappointing results now two quarters in a row, and its shares have plunged 45% over the past four months. So what’s going on here?

Back in 2009, people were defaulting on their auto loans and credit cards and their installment loans because over 10 million people had lost their jobs. This is not the case today. Back then, new unemployment claims – a sign of layoffs – spiked to astronomical levels. These days, they’ve been hovering near historic lows. So today, these people are working, and they’re falling behind on their debt service.

Subprime doesn’t mean poor or uneducated. Subprime means having a credit score below 620.


I would reccomend folks read the full article HERE

It contains some cogent details about the credit card problems in particular, but is too big to paste in full.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Would have to be the ugliest thing on earth.

And just to keep it on an even keel,
From Zero hedge
QUOTE
A few things we think are worth considering when it comes to TSLA - out of the 9 products they’ve announced and sell, they only actively make 3 of them (and demand for those three products appear to have peaked) while the other 6 products they sell are vaporware, i.e., products that do not exist – yes, you heard that right:

TSLA’s current cars in production include:
Model 3 (ASPs and units are in severe decline, and sales were down -49% y/y in Oct. in its biggest market, the USA)
Model X (sales have collapsed in both the US and globally)
Model S (same as Model X)


Meanwhile, here are TSLA’s current cars/products not in production:

Roadster (unveil was 2yrs ago)
Semi (unveil was 2yrs ago)
Model Y (TSLA refuses to mention how many pre-orders they’ve received here)
Cybertruck ($100 fully-refundable deposits on a car that will likely cost $60K, or 0.167%, is the equivalent of someone putting $1.67 toward an $1,000 i-Phone & apple calling it an order)
ATV
FSD (to be FSD, TSLA would have had to achieve level 5 autonomy… they’re at level 2)
So… TSLA has more vaporware products (i.e., stuff that doesn’t exist) than real products for sale; and, it’s real products are seeing large negative y/y growth currently.
Oh… and what about E. Musk’s promise that:

TSLA would have flying cars (he made this claim 322 days ago),
TSLA would create break pads that never need to be replaced (he made this claim 336 days ago),
TSLA would have a base on Mars in 2028 (he made this claim 432 days ago),
TSLA would have a one hour body shop (this claim happened 437 days ago),
he would fix the water in all Flint houses above FDA levels (he made this claim 504 days ago),
there would be no more mass layoffs (533 days, and multiple layoffs, ago), etc.?
The point is… each claim he makes is picked up by every media site and taken as “gospel”; so, maybe the media should go to this website (link) and start holding him to some of these claims?


Agh Vapourware, something from my early IT days.
The sales and marketing geniuses would sell vapourware to clients and leave us poor software engineers to try and make it work.

The article has a couple of graphs on teslas sales which look a little depressing, but I am not allowed to paste dynamic links.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Hmmm, Silver down 0.2% overnight.
The AUD went up versus the USD by 1% to make the fall even bigger in Oz terms.
But SVL goes up 4% on admittedly small volume.
Not sure if its just a breather or what.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 09:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Another coloured person being hailed as the next Andrew Flintoff (or Beefy Bothsm, or Keith Miller...).

fromABC NEWS'

I
QUOTE
f you were building a prototype for the perfect cricketer, it would be hard to go past emerging Australian all-rounder Cameron Green.

He can bat in the top six, bowl at more than 140 kilometres per hour and has had to quickly become used to being sledged by his opponents, after former Australian fast bowler Ryan Harris recently said he was Australia's answer to former England all-rounder Andrew Flintoff.

"Anything that gets published, you have got to cop a bit of shit once you get onto the field," Green joked.


This Green is not to be confused with the other Green

QUOTE
Uncapped Aussie spinner Chris Green signs longest contract in BBL history
He's been flying around the world as a T20 specialist without the reward of an international debut for Australia.

But a lack of higher honours didn't dissuade the Sydney Thunder, who have just signed Chris Green to the longest deal in Big Bash League history.

The 26-year-old off-spinner put pen to paper on a six-year contract with the franchise.


Bring Back Cameron White, Bill Brown, Graham Black, Ian Redpath, Geoff Gray, and we could have a really colourful team.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 09:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Aggh, climate change! The existential crisis of our time!

From Daily Wire

The head democrat Nancy Pelosi is taking 13 democrats with her to the Madrid climate change conference.
[quote]“We must face the existential threat of our time: the climate crisis,” House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said in January in her opening address to Congress. “The entire Congress must work to put an end to the inaction and denial of science that threaten the planet and the future.”

That’s right. Pelosi was set to fly out on Sunday with a 13 other Democrats on a smoke-spewing jet or three, burning that evil fossil fuel, heading 3,781 miles across the Atlantic to the United Nations COP25 climate change conference in Madrid./quote]
why do they need a total of 14 people attending??
Whats wrong with teleconferencing?

At least Greta eschewed those filthy Co2 spitting first class seats for a second class boat ride.

Mick


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yea, Pretty ordinary.
Listening to Ricky Ponting makes me think the other airheads (especially that dork Brayshaw), would be better off if they just shut up.
He gave some very cogent reasons why the plan seemed to be the wrong one to the batsmen at that time.
They only got the first wicket out of luck that the mishit went to a fieldsman.
The send wicket was good bowling from Gary.
It was interesting listening to Ponting explain why he thought that Hazlewood bowls too short. 8 balls in 111 that would have hit the stumps is not good.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

From ABC NEWS
QUOTE
After more than four decades of dominance, free market capitalism is facing a challenge.

Its rival, the blandly named modern monetary theory (MMT), has entered the ring promising to return economic planning to a less ideological footing.

It's also keen to strike a blow against the "surplus fetish" that many economists now blame for declining public services and growing inequality.

The rise of MMT has received little attention in Australia, but it's increasingly gaining exposure in the United States ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

In its corner are Australian-based economist Bill Mitchell and Stephanie Kelton, the senior economic advisor to Democratic contender Bernie Sanders.

But free market capitalism is unlikely to go down without a fight; former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers has dismissed MMT as "voodoo economics".

Listen to the episode

RN's Future Tense takes a look at Modern Monetary Theory, and whether it can really challenge free-market capitalism.
Here's how the contenders shape up.

The title-holder
Whether we like to acknowledge it or not, free market capitalism — often disparagingly referred to as "Neoliberalism" — dominates current thinking on both the centre-right of politics and the centre-left.

Once considered radical, it was legitimised in the late 1970s and early 1980s by political heavyweights Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

Reagan gave it an emblematic war cry: "Government is not the solution to our problem," he famously intoned, "government IS the problem".

And Thatcher set fast its legitimacy with her uncompromising declaration: "There is no alternative!"


Margaret thatcher is also credited with the statement about Socialism " the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other peoples money.".

The real issue is that no government has ever run a free market capitalist economy.
Even the home of free market capitalism ,mighty US has been highly interventionist.
Under pure free market capiltalism, orgs like the FED have intervened in markets to save banks that should have been let die.
They have minimum wages rather than letting market forces dictate.
They set up rules and regs that intervene in their market for political reasons rather than economic ones.
Finally, which economies have a surplus fettish???
There are no major economies other than the Russians running a surplus.
Every other major player is running a low interest deficit policy.
And now we see more countries opting for the QE route.
You only need to look at the economic consequences of these polcies.
As for blaming capitalism for the decline in public service, what proof is there of this view?
We have more public servants paid at a greater proportion of GDP than ever before.
Mick



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Gramma is fuh nerds.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 1 2019, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Aussies off the boil. A missed stumping, missed runout, dropped caught and bowled, two catches dropping just short of 1st slip.
A bit shoddy, except for the two wickets in two balls.
Yasir gets his well deserved century.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2019, 07:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

One of those where ya buy 10,000 and put it in the bottom drawer for a few years/
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2019, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

duplicate post
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2019, 10:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Agree that the pitches here are benign, but I also think the Kookaburra ball makes a big difference.
Australian batters shine in these benign conditions, but you would think other world class batsmen from other countries should also shine.
The same poms who drove Warner mad in England were done over 3 -1 .
They could not get any scores above 400. Australia managed three above 400.
In the last test Pakistan couldn't reach the OZ total in two innings.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the way things are going, this test will have OZ declaring twice for a few wickets and knocking pakistan over twice.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 04:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I guess this would be classed as an ambit claim.
From ABC NEWS
QUOTE
Indigenous leaders have filed an unprecedented compensation claim against the West Australian Government that could become one of the world's biggest legal payouts.

The Noongar People are pursuing more than $290 billion from the WA Government
The compensation is for "spiritual damage" caused by loss of traditional land
The group was previously granted native title over an area almost as big as Victoria
The Noongar people of south-west WA are pursuing more than $290 billion for "spiritual damage" caused by loss of their traditional land.

The figure would be almost a quarter of Australia's gross domestic product of $1.4 trillion and more than West Australia's gross state product of $259 billion.

If the action is successful, it would put it in the range of a landmark $US206 billion ($304 billion) payout made by the tobacco industry to governments across the United States in 1998.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973


Once again, we may have been a little premature about the demise of the US.

From Financial Times

QUOTE
The pace of the US economy’s expansion has picked up in the back half of 2019, with data showing gross domestic product rose in the third quarter by more than initially forecast.

The economy expanded at a 2.1 per cent annualised rate in the three months ended September 30, according to the second estimate of GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That is up from an initial estimate of 1.9 per cent and an increase from the 2 per cent pace in the second quarter.

The new estimate, as well as data showing a bigger-than-expected rebound in durable goods orders in October, may help allay concerns about the health of the US economy, particularly manufacturing and business investment, which continues to be tested by the impact of Donald Trump’s trade war on China.

The upbeat data helped support US stocks, with the S&P 500 up 0.2 per cent on Wednesday morning from the previous session’s record closing high. The US dollar index rose by the same margin.

“The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from [personal consumption expenditure], federal government spending, residential investment, private inventory investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment,” the BEA said on Wednesday.

Data also showed orders for long-lasting manufactured goods rebounded in October from their steepest drop since May. Durable goods orders rose 0.6 per cent last month, easily topping Wall Street forecasts for a 0.8 per cent drop, and marking a solid recovery from the downwardly revised 1.4 per cent fall (previously minus 1.2 per cent) in September.

New orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a proxy for business investment, surged 1.2 per cent, from an upwardly revised 0.5 per cent drop in September. Economists pencilled in an October decline of 0.3 per cent.

“The rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by a surge in orders for underlying capital goods, suggesting that business equipment investment is holding up better than anticipated,” Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics said.

“Overall, we’re still expecting economic growth to slow further in the near-term, but that slowdown appears to be more modest than we had initially expected,” he added.

Price growth remained soft at the start of the fourth quarter even after the economy performed better than forecast, supporting the case for the US central bank to keep interest rates low.

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which Federal Reserve officials use as their preferred inflation gauge and excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 1.6 per cent year-over-year in October, according to the commerce department. That was down from the 1.7 per cent growth seen in the prior month.

The inflation reading “underlines that interest rates are unlikely to be raised again for the foreseeable future”, according to Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics.

“If economic growth slows as much as we expect it to, corporate pricing power is going to weaken, and core inflation is likely to again begin to decelerate,” Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at MFR, said.

Household spending in October grew 0.3 per cent month-to-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching the consensus estimate in a Thomson Reuters poll.


Just when ya think its breathed its last, it has a bit of a rally.
With the DOW at all time high. things can't be all that bad.
Especially when you look at the Chinese stock market. Down 30% from its 2015 high.
And if you were investing from outside China, the currency depreciation would add to the losses.
The markets seem to suggest that so far, the US is winning the trade war.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yikes, after being sent in by Queensland skipper, Tassy 3 wickets down for four runs.
Steketee 3 for 2.
The latest selector G Bailey out for 2.
Must be a bit of a green top in Hobart.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 09:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

perhaps if these directors and executives had spent less time on virtue signalling to the latest social issues, and a little more time monitoring their business processes, they would be a little less likely to find themselves in these situations.
And as usual, it will be shareholders who pay the price for the activities of these inflated egos.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2019, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Missed by that much.
Might have to sell 1/8th of the holdings and take part in rights issue.
Not sure why it is suddenly back in favour, maybe we have our own version of the Plunge Protection team??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 28 2019, 04:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yeah, luckily NTU is performing a little better.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 28 2019, 02:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

As with TLG, It may end up being just as easy to buy on market at rightsissue price.
Have put an order in at that price just in case.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 26 2019, 05:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Am I the only person who thinks the Castle lady in charge of Rugby Australia is really Dawn French?
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 25 2019, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

i have a standard signature on all my emails.
“My preferred pro. noun is Your most esteemed excellency”.
Unfortunately, everyone ignores it.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

from ABC NEWS
QUOTE
The curtain call for a new play about the fabled Packer dynasty is instructive.

Lined up on stage are six big, white men who between them play more than a dozen characters in a story spanning 50 years of a media dynasty that owned newspapers, magazines and Channel Nine.

From Sir Frank to Kerry to James, the Packers have for three generations been at the apex of power in Sydney, and therefore Australia.

Alongside those six men in the evocatively-titled Packer and Sons is a young boy who remains silent throughout the play, absorbing how the grown-ups interact.


Typical Sydney-centric arrogance.
If its not in Sydney, and more particularly in Ultimo., it just doesn't cut.it.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 07:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The no ball non call was pretty ordinary.
Though according to the charming English lady commentator, the noball rules for this series are slightly different f=than the ICC rules in terms of grounding.
The umpires are reluctant to call noball unless its obvious.
I think the main reason is because although an out decision can be reviewed for a noball and overturned, it does not work the other way.
If an umpire calls a marginal noball and the batsmen gets away with a false shot that would normally be out, there is no third umpire adjudication of the noball.
If replays suggest that it was a false no ball call, there is no calling the player back.
The fielding side can not challenge a noball call to the third umpire either.
Makes up for the nick that wasn't given and not reviewed by OZ. Both out by the barest of margins.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 09:24 AM


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Posts: 1,973

Doesn't really matter now. TLG price is down to the issue price, so no great advantage in applying for more shares when you can buy on the market for same price.
It may even go lower if the general market feeling is negative.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I have many issues with these constant new records being broken .
1. The BOM has changed the RAW original datasets in both ACORN 1 and ACORN 2.
These changes have made the earlier 1900's cooler, and the later periods warmer. They have never offered any explanations for this.

2. In the olden days, atmospheric data was sampled every half hour. The recording people may have missed the highest or lowest absolute temp for a 24 hour period .
The newer automatic gauges sample the atmosphere constantly.
So obviously, the newer systems will record the absolute highest temp and absolute lowest temp for a 24 hour period.

3. the electronic equipment can measure to the 100th of a degree. Older style manual readings had an accuracy of half a degree at best.

4.The BOM keep changing the reference sites. By a process they call homoginisation, temperatures in Victoria are used to adjust temperatures in Tasmania. Cape Bruny in Southern Tasmania was found to be statistically wrong, and was adjusted upwards by half a degree using Ballarat, 800 ks away in Victoria.

I am not a denier of climate change, or even a denier that man has contributed to it.

The question is how much, and what can you realistically do about it. Is the cure worse than the disease?

My biggest problem is the responses to it. Political responses to a science based climatic algorithm was always fraught with danger.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2019, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I looked at the prospectus on the website that details how first in best dressed etc and that by using BPAY, you don't have to send in the forms.
However, each individual has to have their own EFT code to participate.
I presume that data will come out via snail mail or maybe email for those of us who elected to get their communications via email.
So those who get the EFT code first, will naturally be the first come first served dudes who get the lollies.
Where is the ASX, ASIC, the Fed Police, anybody who thinks that "all shareholders are to be treated equally" really means that.
The prospectus says that management reserve the right to oversubscribe.
Why the hell not, get lots money in while ya can.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2019, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

And on that note., West Indian player Nicholas Pooran has been banned for four matches by the ICC for Ball Tampering..
He was seen on the TV running hos thumb nail down the seam of the ball.
Something that used to done all the time in the old days.
Will the Barmy army give it to him when the WI team next visit mother England?
Will the English press demand that he always be called a cheat??
Seems there is different rules for OZ indiscretions.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 07:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I will get some red caps made up with MACGA on them.
Make Australian Cricket great again.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 05:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Starks problem is that his first name is ok, but its his surname. thats the problem
Its not marsh.
I see now that the Sheffield Shield and the 50 over one day cup are now called the Marsh Shield and the Marsh cup respectively.
Powerful people those Marshes.
If Cummins Hazelwood and Stark don't make up the opening attack, there is something very wrong with the mentality of the selection panel.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The Silver Lake reported about in the Article you quoted is not the SLR we all know and love.
The article is about a US private equity firm called Silver Lake. I am not aware of any connection between SLR and the US company Silver Lake Equity partners.

From oberver

QUOTE
TEG, the Australian live entertainment giant and Ticketek owner, has been acquired by Silver Lake, a U.S.-based private equity company which specialises in technology investing.

TEG’s management team, led by its Sydney-based CEO Geoff Jones, will continue to run the business and keep equity in the new ownership structure.


Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The big unanswered question is how much money is going to come srom the public in terms of tax breaks, grants etc.
Been reading about the debacle that was carnegie wave technology.
Governments are the absolute worst at picking winners.
Townsville being in Queensland, I worry a bit.
It was the state government that put money into an app top allow people on cruise ships to share their photos.
Just what we needed.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

EB, you are only a Demigod.
Need twenty more successful trades to reach the stock god pinacle.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Hmm, serious enough to issue ba share placement 20% below the last traded price to those oft quoted "sophisticated investors".
At least the existing less sophisticated shareholders will get a chance to participate in a share purchase plan
Market not that happy, down over 15% when trading again.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 08:27 AM


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Posts: 1,973

J, you can read all about it HERE at Skeptics

It seems that the problem was not the burning of Hydrogen, but rather the fact that Horvath claimed to be using fusion to create the hydrogen from water. Thats was the real downfall.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 07:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Wasn't it the Germans who developed the Hindenburg??
Just saying.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 03:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Ha thats cool, An American Auto company opening an electric vehicle plant in Germany, versus a German Auto Company opening an electric vehicle plant in America!
Nothing like a little irony to keep the world turning.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 01:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

From The Australian

QUOTE
A shock loss of 19,000 jobs in October has lifted the unemployment rate to 5.3 per cent, a disappointing result which will likely amplify calls for the government to provide further fiscal stimulus.

Economists had expected the key jobless measure to hold at 5.2 per cent and for 15,000 jobs to be added, according to Bloomberg consensus forecasts. In September the economy added a downwardly revised 12,500 jobs.

The unemployment rate might have been higher had the participation rate not ticked lower to 66 per cent, from 66.1 per cent.

Following the data the Aussie dollar dipped US0.4 cents to US68.08 cents and stocks swung from losses to firm gains as traders moved quickly to price in a higher chance of monetary easing. The market-implied chance of a Reserve Bank rate cut as soon as next month jumped to 26 per cent from 14 per cent, while the probability of a February cut climbed to 56 per cent from 44 per cent, on Bloomberg numbers.


So, despite the excruciatingly slow wage rises, low inflation, Tax cuts and record low interest rates, employment falls.

Guess it puts another rate cut from RBA in the near certainty bracket.

The only growth is in Government jobs.

Wonder how long it will be before someone in government comes up with the idea that they should push for a much higher minimum wage, and hope like hell there is a flow effect up the chain.

Glad I am retired.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 01:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

TLS up 1.5% today.
Nothing in announcements, why would they suddenly get back in favour???
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Its a good bathroom song because you can pretend to sing in Italian, and unless someone who actually speaks Italian is within earshot, no one is the wiser.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I see a pretty chart.
My charting expertise is close to non existent.
I deal in fundamentals.
Fundamentally, I could be wrong.
As for Quando Quando, I reckon it was orignally by Al martino, though Michael Buble had a good go..
And I thinlk you mean Englebert Humperdinck rather than the Jones boy.

Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 09:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

And further on the bushfires:
From The Australian

QUOTE
NSW police believe a staggering 12 bushfires may have been deliberately lit by arsonists during Tuesday’s “catastrophic” fire conditions.

Acting Assistant Commissioner Stuart Smith said arson wasn’t a “five-minute job” and any suspected firebugs were likely to have methodically planned out their crime.

Commissioner Smith also evoked Victoria’s devastating Black Saturday bushfires when quizzed about the challenges faced by officers trying to catch an arsonist.

“We learnt a lot from the Black Saturday bushfires,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

“It’s methodical, tedious work but obviously there are several fires from yesterday that we are still looking at to determine if there is any suspicious behaviour.”

He pledged to “put people before a court” if officers determined arson was a factor behind any of Tuesday’s bushfires
.


If they get caught, they well just say it was an accidental dropped butt.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 11:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yep, won't argue with that.
Still has not been the dramatic falls I expected.
My bids remain unfulfilled.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 11:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The greens and others screaming that climate change is the cause of fires in OZ must be having an effect on the police.

From ABC NEWS


QUOTE
Queensland police say a discarded cigarette likely sparked the bushfire which destroyed 11 homes and the historic Binna Burra Lodge in the Gold Coast hinterland in September.

Key points
Police reveal the Binna Burra fire, that destroyed the historic Lodge and 11 houses, was caused by a discarded cigarette
Police will not lay charges against the two teenagers, aged 17 and 19
Fines apply in Queensland for people caught tossing cigarette butts
Officers said two local teenagers — aged 17 and 19 — had been questioned about the incident and detectives had determined the fire was an accident.

"A prosecution will not be commenced against those persons ... they are afforded privacy just like anyone else in their position," a QPS spokesperson said.


I just don't get it. Whatever happened to strict liability in Law?
Whatever happened to the idea that you are responsible for the outcome of your actions ??
A discarded cigarette butt. An accident?
Jeez I give up.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 07:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Opinion is the new black.
It has replaced reporting as the standard out put of reporters.
I thought the article was a puff pice to fill space.
Cameron Bancroft the only batsmen to have managed to stay around.
Currently now top score with 20.
Everyone seems to have pencilled in Carey as a future test captain.
Can't say I have seen anything so far tht fills me with confidence.
9/69. Lucky its only our second 11.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, the bat off for places in the OZ test team going really well.
Australia A 7 /50 after Pakistan amassed 428
The highest score by the auditioners was marcus harris with 16,
Don't think these Pakistani boys are going to be a pushover.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yep, it took them half an hour to fix it.
Don't think too many were fooled.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

PLS in trading halt.
Capital raising anyone??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Kitco has silver at 23.37 on the open , an increase of 36% of Fridays close.
Gotta be someones fat fingers on a single trade.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yea, its always easy to declare something going to happen over the next thirty years.

Arden doesn't have to do much of the hard work in actually implementing it.

according to ABC NEWS

QUOTE
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern believes the country is placing itself on the right side of history in the battle against climate change as Members of Parliament adopt a measure to cut carbon emissions to net zero by 2050.

Thursday's framework enshrines in law the new 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target and makes it a legally binding objective to keep global warming below a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius forecast by the United Nations.

"Today, we have made a choice that I am proud of," Ms Ardern told Parliament.

"I hope it means the next generation will see that we were on the right side of history.

"New Zealand will not be a slow follower.


The bill accords different treatment to methane emissions from animals versus other greenhouse gases, but still targets a cut of 10 per cent in biological methane by 2030, and up to 47 per cent by 2050.


Last time I checked, methane contains carbon, and is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, so don't see how they are going to be carbon neutral.
Of course methane only has a life in the atmosphere of around 8 years before it breaks down.
And what does it break down into??
Yep, CO2 and H2O.

So for all the preening about being carbon neutral, they will still end up producing heaps of Co2.

We are constantly told to follow the science, but only when it suits the argument.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 11:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

From ABC news
QUOTE
A coroner has recommended pill testing be conducted in NSW, the decriminalisation of personal drug use and the scrapping of sniffer dogs at music festivals.

An inquest investigated the drug-related deaths of six young people, aged 18 to 23, at NSW music festivals over two summers.

Delivering her findings on Friday, deputy state coroner Harriet Grahame said there was "compelling" evidence to support pill testing, which could "prompt behavioural change".

"Drug checking is simply an evidence-based harm reduction strategy that should be trialled as soon as possible in NSW," she said.

Ms Grahame said high-visibility and punitive policing operations at festivals had "inherent dangers and few if any benefits" and drug detection dogs should be scrapped.

She said the use of strip searches should be limited to circumstances where there is a "reasonable suspicion".


So, now governments have to pay for more stupidity by recreational drug users.

Surely money would be better spent on telling the idiots who take recreational drugs that there are serious consequences.

But now, we have to protect the snowflakes from their own stupidity.

I have seen first hand the damage that these so called recreational drugs cause.

Its not pretty, and has long lasting consequences.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

C'mon Alonso, stop being modest.
It was a brilliant piece of timing.
Will you go back in for another shot when it looks like it has dumped enough??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 10:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Not sure what you are telling me there.
The XGD is down 3.7%.
I had expected much higher falls, especially given the sorts of increases on the way up.

RMS down 7$% is the biggest fall in my watchlist.
Looking for RMS and SLR to be both at sub $1.00.

Especially as both have seen increases in shorts last few weeks.


Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Another big fall in gold and silver last night after announcements about a trade deal "soon"/
Still only one of my low ball bids partially filled.
Why are the gold stocks not going down further??

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 7 2019, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

None of my low ball bids got met yesterday.
Hoping for more falls today.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

And speaking of High debt, the US debt has now hit 23 trillion.


from The Hill

QUOTE
The federal government's outstanding public debt has surpassed $23 trillion for the first time in history, according to data from the Treasury Department released on Friday.

Growing budget deficits have added to the nation's debt at a speedy rate since President Trump took office. The debt has grown some 16 percent since Trump's inauguration, when it stood at $19.9 trillion. It passed $22 trillion for the first time just 10 months ago.
Of the $23 trillion figure, just under $17 trillion was in the category of debt held by the public, which is a more useful gauge of the debt the government has to pay down, and the number typically used in calculating the nation's debt burden. The other $6 trillion comes from loans within government bodies.

Still, the $23 trillion figure marks a milestone.

“Reaching $23 trillion in debt on Halloween is a scary milestone for our economy and the next generation, but Washington shows no fear," said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the fiscally conservative Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

"Piling on debt like this is especially unwise and unnecessary in a strong economy," he added.

High levels of debt can push up borrowing costs and interest rates, "crowd out" private borrowing and weigh down budgets. In the 2019 fiscal year, for example, the government had to devote $376 billion just to pay the interest on the debt, equivalent to nearly half the defense budget, and more than the amount spent on the combined costs of education, agriculture, transportation and housing.

The deficit for 2019 came in just under $1 trillion, at $984 billion, and is only expected to grow in coming years.

While the main drivers of spending are mandatory programs such as Social Security, Medicare and anti-poverty programs, major legislation has grown the deficit considerably since Trump came to office.

The 2017 GOP tax law was estimated to cost $1.9 trillion over a decade, while bipartisan deals to boost defense and domestic spending ramped up outlays each year.


At around $185,000 for each person in the US, it sorta makes you wonder why so many people are clamouring to get into the USA, legally or otherwise.

Don't they know what they are getting themselves into??
On the bright side, I guess if they increase the number of people, the debt per person reduces.


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 08:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

So, last night further confirmation that the US death notice is a little premature.


QUOTE
The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to a reading of 54.7% in October, up from September’s 52.6%. The 2.1 percentage-point advance surprised the markets, with consensus expectations calling for the index to come in at 53.5%.


Readings above 50 are seen as a sign of economic growth – the farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.

“This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate,” the report said. “The non-manufacturing sector had an uptick in growth after reflecting a pullback in September. The respondents continue to be concerned about tariffs, labor resources and the geopolitical climate.”

The details of the ISM Non-Manufacturing report revealed that the new orders sub-index rose to 60.3% from July’s 54.1%.

Looking at other components, business activity sub-index increased to 55.6% from 53.7% registered in September. The employment index rose to 53.7% from September’s reading of 50.4%. Economists keep a close eye on the latter number as a gauge into the employment situation in the country.

Inflation pressures rose for the 29th consecutive month, with the price index coming in at 56.6% in October.

In an immediate reaction to the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing index, gold prices dropped to new daily lows with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,491.00, down 1.33% on the day.

Prior to the release, gold prices were already down more than 1% on the day on renewed risk-on sentiment triggered by positive U.S.-China trade headlines and the rallying U.S. stock market.

The service sector’s advance in October is consistent with “modest growth,” said CIBC Capital Markets senior economist Andrew Grantham.

“The details showed most of the major sub-indices improving, including business activity, new orders and employment. As such, the report appears to confirm what Friday's payrolls figures suggested, namely that the services side of the U.S. economy is still in good shape, which will negate the need for further interest rate reductions,” Grantham wrote.


Full article Here.

The US has become like OZ, a giant service industry where manufacturing has become such a small part of the economy, its relevance becomes less important.
Having outsourced those boring low paid manufacturing jobs to Asia, the service industry is now king.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, overnight the PM's got pounded. Those in the know in OZ yesterday sold down most of the goldies yesterday.
I expect they will get sold down big time today.
I have set some low ball bids in them in the hope of picking up some on the cheap(er).

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 06:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

After opening well down (is that the STO??), all my goldies had a big jump through the day when the price of gold/silver barely changed.
Are we about to see another pump from the US markets 2nite??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 03:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

And today they announce the big one, California.
California Transport Authority has approved both the Edencrete products as preferred users in the states concrete pavements.
Up[ 13% today/

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 2 2019, 09:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

On the other hand, the Chinese may be changing tack in doing away with the USD as a reserve currency.

according to Kitco news


QUOTE
China’s big move for the 21st century is to pull a “trap door” on the U.S. by launching a gold-backed crypto currency that will devalue the U.S. dollar to “zero,” this according to Max Keiser, host of the Keiser Report.

“[China] is rolling out a cryptocurrency, a lot of the details have not been divulged. I can tell you that the cryptocurrency that China’s rolling out will be backed by gold. It’s a two-pronged announcement. Number one, China’s got 20,000 tonnes of gold, number two, we’re rolling out a crypto coin backed by gold, and the dollar is toast,” Keiser told Kitco News.

Keiser added that bitcoin is a superior form of currency to gold.

“Both fiat money and gold are inferior to bitcoin for one very simple reason, that with a bitcoin transaction, it i s also simultaneously the settlement. You don’t have that with fiat, you don’t have that with gold,” he said.


The full report can be seen here


One of the interesting things is that he says that if 5 years ago, you had invested 10,000 dollars in gold, today it would be worth 12,500. A return of 5% a year.
However, if you had invested that same 10,000 in bitcoin 5 years ago, it would be worth 250,000 today.

His second piece of data, namely that China does not have 2,000 tons of gold, but actually has 20,000 tons og f gold is a little more contentious.
Chinas stats are notoriously opaque, unless there is almost no gold left inFort Knox, its hard to see where the massive increase has come from.

But if he is correct, and China is about to start using a cryptocurrency backed by gold, its a game changer.
However, getting its trading partners to accept a crypto for trade is a bit problematic.

Mick





China
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 2 2019, 08:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Bloombergs on the reasons why the USD is still king.



[quote]Russian President Vladimir Putin is acting on a pledge to shrink the role of the U.S. dollar in international trade. Jean-Claude Juncker, outgoing president of the European Commission, says it’s “absurd” that Europe uses the greenback for 80% of energy imports. Chinese President Xi Jinping has railed against economic “hegemonism.” Can the mighty dollar retain its global dominance when attacked from so many sides? Don’t count it out yet.

1. Why are some people fed up with the dollar?
Because it’s so prevalent. The U.S. currency is on one side of almost 90% of foreign-exchange transactions and accounts for two-thirds of international debt. Almost all international trades in oil are priced in dollars, hence the term petrodollars. That ubiquity makes nations beholden to fluctuations in its value and ties their economies to decisions made in Washington. As Juncker intimated, it makes sense for European countries to pay for their energy needs in euros rather than dollars. Then there are the countries that get on the wrong side of American policy.

2. What’s the issue there?
Sanctions. U.S. leverage rests with the central role its banks, and the dollar, play in the global economy; any country, company or bank that violates sanctions could see their U.S.-based assets blocked or lose the ability to move money to or through accounts held in the U.S. A spate of such penalties has pushed Russia to target faster “de-dollarization.” And European leaders began work on a payments system that would enable their companies to do business with Iran without getting snagged, though progress has been slow.

3. Is dollar concern a new thing?
The U.S. currency has dominated since the end of World War II, when world leaders met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to establish a system to manage foreign exchange and agreed to link their currencies to the dollar. The push to dial back the greenback has its origins partly in the 1998 currency crisis, when Asian nations got caught borrowing too many dollars and were plunged into recession as their currencies plummeted and debt repayments soared. Fast forward a decade, and Asia’s amassing of dollars to build currency reserves helped fuel a U.S. credit binge that triggered the global financial crisis. Back in 2010, Brazil, Russia, India and China set up the BRIC partnership with the aim of establishing a new world order. More recently, China has put its weight behind developing a “Belt and Road” trade route across Asia and Europe lined with infrastructure projects financed in local currencies. Those efforts accelerated after the U.S. instigated a trade war.

4. Is the dollar’s market share shrinking?
No. The Bank for International Settlements’ triennial survey showed the share of currency trades in dollars had increased marginally since 2016 to 88%. The euro’s share climbed a percentage point to 32% in 2019. Emerging-market currencies gained 3.5 points to 24.5%, mostly at the expense of the yen, while China’s yuan accounted for 4%, the same as in 2016. The share of foreign reserves held in dollars (about 62%) has remained steady over the past decade, while the dollar’s usage in global payments tracked by financial institutions has actually risen since the start of the decade.
Too much bother. Shifting to the euro, yuan or ruble means higher costs and difficulties finding banks to handle business. The euro’s allure as currency to back trade and investment has hardly been boosted by the region’s 2010 sovereign debt crisis and the European Central Bank’s use of negative interest rates. Volatility and scant volumes in emerging currencies make for higher trading and hedging costs. Russia’s first year of diversifying away from the dollar illustrated another peril: In a strong period for the dollar, the country missed out on $7.7 billion in potential returns on its foreign exchange reserves.

6. Can any currency compete with the dollar?The euro is the only currency anywhere close. That was the conclusion of a European Commission report on strengthening the international role of the currency in June 2019. Rifts with U.S. President Donald Trump over trade tariffs as well as the sanctions on Iran have pushed the EU to seek greater financial independence. The report also found potential for boosting the share of commodities transactions in euros. With so many national governments to appease, though, progress on big European projects like this tends to be slow-moving. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says it would be a mistake to switch one dominant currency for another; he advocates a global digital currency to supersede the dollar.

7. Why is Russia pressing ahead?“We aren’t ditching the dollar, the dollar is ditching us,” is how Putin put it in 2018. Successive rounds of U.S. sanctions over Ukraine and alleged election-meddling in the U.S., and the threat of more to come, have given Russia good reason to try to move as much of its economy as possible out of the reach of Washington. Last year the central bank sold $100 billion in dollars from its reserves and spread the money between euro and yuan. A campaign to get companies to switch contracts to local currencies appears to be working. The euro is on course to overtake the dollar in Russia’s trade with the EU and China.

8. Is China on board?
China’s drive to make the yuan a more widely used global currency reached its pinnacle in 2015, when the International Monetary Fund decided to make it the fifth currency in its prestigious special drawing rights currency basket -- a kind of overdraft account it holds for global central banks. Yet the People’s Bank of China’s focus has shifted during a six-year weakening of the yuan to keeping a tighter rein on capital outflows and trading. Bond sales raising currency outside the mainland -- so-called offshore yuan -- have flagged. Offshore yuan deposits are down 33% from their 2015 high. On the other hand, China has been on a mission to open domestic exchanges that are priced in yuan for commodities such as oil and iron ore.

9. Is anyone actively challenging the dollar?
Putin said in a meeting with Xi in June that using the dollar as an instrument of pressure was “undermining its role as a global reserve currency.” (A reserve currency is one that’s held by others in significant quantities as part of their foreign-exchange reserves.) Xi, with an eye on trade talks with the U.S. that involve a currency pact, obliquely described “hegemonism” as a global challenge. But watch closely for what China is doing. The focus has shifted from turning the yuan into a freely convertible currency, without government restrictions, to nurturing real economic activity through loans for its Belt and Road initiative. And keep an eye on Russia settling energy deals in euros and defense contracts in rupees. The dollar may be winning the war on the trading floors of London, New York and Tokyo, but it is losing peripheral skirmishes engineered in Moscow, Delhi and Beijing./quote]

The doc is written from a US perspective, but not a bad summary.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 2 2019, 07:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

So, we have the feds pumping money into the repo market to shore up the banks, they have also added another rate cut, the PMI index is still falling, the dems are trying to impeach the president, the same president who started a trade war with the its biggest trading partner, climate change will destroy America within 12 years (at least according to three climate experts in AOC., Greta, and Jane Fonda). You would think that people would be streaming out of the country for a safe haven rather than more and more trying to get in. The joint is doomed.
But if you can believe the the BLS Jobs report, the 128,000 jobs added in October, while not a fantastic number in its own right, it beat all expectations. And this despite the strike at GM. And to top it off, the previous August number was revised upwards from 168,000 to 219,000 and Septembers from 136,000 to 180,000. And in a hit to the white male brigade, Women Show Gains in Male-Dominated Sectors Over Last Year
Between October 2018 and October 2019, women gained employment in the mining and logging industry by 1% as well as other sectors. And finally, unemployment for black men drops to its lowest level since 1972.
The median for spells of unemployment has fallen from a high of 25 weeks after the GFC to around 9 weeks, back to levels last seen in 2007.

Perhaps the end is not so nigh after all.

All from the WSJ

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973


From The Australian

QUOTE
Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has recorded one of the biggest profits by an Australian private company in recent history, the iron ore miner’s 2019 financial accounts reveal.

Hancock doubled its net profit to $2.6bn in the 2019 financial year, accounts lodged with the corporate regulator on Thursday evening show.

Mrs Rinehart’s business paid a huge $1.1bn in tax, up from $600m last year. Revenue, most of which is from iron ore sales, surged to $8.4bn from $5.8bn in 2018.

Mrs Rinehart is ranked second on The List — Australian’s Richest 250, published by The Australian, with estimated wealth of $13.12bn based on last year’s ­Hancock result.

Visy executive chairman Anthony Pratt narrowly beat Mrs Rinehart to top spot with an estimated wealth of $13.14bn.

Hancock paid $483m in dividends this year, down from $528m in 2018.

So good were its results this year that Hancock said it was paying down $US1bn debt in two chunks, one this month and the rest early next year.

Mrs Rinehart’s wealth is derived from a majority stake in the company, which has huge mining, agriculture and investment assets.

The jewel in the crown is the Roy Hill iron ore mine.

Last month, Mrs Rinehart added the Warrabah Station in the New England region of NSW to her already substantial holdings. A run of agricultural purchases by the mining magnate is broadening the scope of her empire and diversifying its earnings.

Hancock Prospecting is among the largest landholders in the country.


A smart, capable no nonsense lady cfdarrying oncontinuing and expanding the work started by her father.

No swiss bank accounts, no fancy transfer pricing to Singapore shelf companies.

A woman in charge of a company that pays a billion in Tax.

No quotas here .

Not a word from the sisterhood.

I guess for the woke sisters, mining, meat from cattle production, are really bad things.

Perhaps they should offer to give back the tainted tax money,.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

It seems a common theme everywhere.
In the old days, you were told to take a cup of cement and harden up.
Most sports these days are well tuned to recognise mental fragility.
Cricket may be just catching up with the other ports.
I thought S Smith was going to fall in a deep deep hole after he got banned; he was crying seriously in the TV interviews.
Warner on the other hand, has inherited the mental toughness of Steve Waugh.
By the way, did anyone else notice that none of the Aus/Sl T20's were televised on Free to air??
Obviously the lankans just don't rate,

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 05:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Somebody gunna lose their shirt.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

When I was a young lD, my uncle gave me some sage adice.
“Son, there are three things in life that youneed to be extremely wary of:
1. Teetotallers.
2. Vegatarians
3. The electrics in any Austin.”



Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 29 2019, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

From Chuck Butlers GCRU

QUOTE
QUOTE

I haven't touched on the massive amounts of derivatives in the markets these days in a while, and then I saw this from Ainslie Bullion… “the idea that derivatives are not a source of systemic risk because the open (netted) position may seem small is one of the great misconceptions about derivatives. Derivatives fund nothing, but serve to shift exposures from one party to another and work through margins (collateral), yet they carry all the bankruptcy characteristics of debt for the out-of-the-money party. A sudden move on volatility can shift the Gross Market Value quickly, and netting provides no protection for this. Netting is about settlement amounts using prices at the point of close out. Netting does not protect any financial firm from market risk.”

In 2008, we were within an eyelash of a catastrophic moment in derivatives… Did we learn anything then? No… The number of derivatives in the markets place today far exceeds where we were in 2008… I just don’t know how to explain this any further to you folks, other than to say that The debt has grown by so much that it seems impossible for it not to eventually trigger the kind of uncontrolled or ‘disorderly’ market event that sees the derivative ‘worst case’ issue playing out. And once again I ask… Got Gold?
QUOTE



Agh History, its just that , History. Of course it has no bearing on today. Today is differrent this time.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 25 2019, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Silver off om a run again .
Up over 18 bucks again.
Question is, will it be sustained??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

And the battle still rages.
Back up above a buck this morning.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

geez nipp, I had written and spell checked a similar article after reading the announcement, luckily I went out and hung the washing before I posted a double up.
Can't wait to see the loyalty program, will they give me for QANTAS FF points, or just a free set of steak knives??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 21 2019, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The losers from this week"
Kawaja a duck and 2, Travis head a duck and 12, Wade 20 and 40 (though he did top score in second innigs)
Warner 1 and 15 No in a win.
Hanscombe 12, Bancroft 10 in a big total
Nathan Lyon only 2 for 90 odd out of 20 (though Starc hogged them all himself).
All the Victorian bowlers, Pattinson at least got four, siddle 2.
Travis Paine two low scores,

The winners were Labuschage 32 and 72 NO Smith another centur but also a failure with 2, , S marsh a double ton.
Starc 10 wickets for the match.
Wes Agar, (the other Agar) took 6/90 for match , 20 No on debut.
Like the look of Riley meredith, 5 wicket haul in NSW innings. One of these odd characters that bowls right handed and bats left handed. Tall, only 23, one to wtach.


Jury still out.
Marcus Harris 62 and 8
Will Pusovski a scratchy 64 and still not out early in 2nd dig.

Joe Burns 39 and 22 and Matt Renshaw 18 and 24 nothing to crow about.

Nobody else in contention worth mentioning.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 20 2019, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

South Africa struggling like all non sub continent teams in India.
It doesn't help when they have lost the toss in all three tests, in fact the saffers have lost the toss ten times in a row in India, a rather startling stst.
They have changed tossers (??) a number of times but it doesn't seem to help.
Its tough to win in India, but its even tougher when the home side always gets to bat first.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 19 2019, 10:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I presume allthe mums and dads understand the meaning of a ponzi scheme and the old addage that with increased return comes increased risk, not necessarily in equal portions.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 19 2019, 05:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

And yet both IGO and MCR my two nickel stocks have come off the boil; in recent times.
Obviously local players have not read the report by Tim Serjeant.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

SBM puts out a lower guidance of output range, and a higher guidance for all in costs.
Share price crunched again.
Now well below last cap raising, hoping that more get out and it goes lower.
Still producing gold, still making a profit, on a forward PE under 9.
I will buy more , but hopefully at a lower price.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 17 2019, 11:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Paris zoo has showcased a mysterious new organism, dubbed the "blob", a yellowish unicellular small living being which looks like a fungus but acts like an animal.

FromABC NEWS

QUOTE
This newest exhibit of the Paris Zoological Park, which will go on display to the public this weekend, has no mouth, no stomach, no eyes, yet it can detect food and digest it.

The blob also has almost 720 sexes, can move without legs or wings and heals itself in two minutes if cut in half.

"The blob is a living being which belongs to one of nature's mysteries", said Bruno David, director of the Paris Museum of Natural History, of which the Zoological Park is part.

"It surprises us because it has no brain but is able to learn.

"If we put it in a maze, it will learn and take the best route out of the maze to find its food. If we put an obstacle in front of it — the blob hates salt, for example — it won't get past it right away, even if there is food behind it.

"Then the blob will learn how to get past the barrier and get to its food, and it will start to do this more quickly and more strongly.

"If we fuse two blobs together, the one which learned will transmit its knowledge to the other, and so, it will know directly how to get past this barrier."



Sounds like the description of a Government to me.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

DRO up 13% today.
Must be an announcement in the offing.
Tempted to take the money and run.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 01:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

looks like the shorters might be taking another bath.
SLR up 6% currently on a day after both gold and silver were crunched by the COT boys.
Could be an interesting fight.
Not sure why they would pick SLR as a shorting stock , they are producing gold, their forward P/E is under 13, and are expecting production to be in the upper end of guidance.
maybe they know something we don't.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 08:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I had not seen anything on this topic in the OZ press.
Could have a pretty big impact on exports to Indonesia.
QUOTE
Indonesia is all set to make halal labeling mandatory for consumer products and services from this week, but the high cost of securing the license and absence of clear guidelines mean millions of local producers are still without certificates.

The compulsory labeling will first apply to the food and beverage products and services from Oct. 17 before being gradually expanded to include drugs, cosmetics and other consumer goods, according to the nation’s Halal Product Guarantee Agency. But a large number of small and medium companies are struggling to meet the rules without detailed technical guidelines, the Indonesian Food and Beverage Producers Association said.


Fom Bloombergs
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 04:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973



Important Breakthroughs in science via the Ignobel Prize.
QUOTE
Every year, the Ig Nobel awards — a parody conference of the Nobel Prize awards — honor published scientific papers that “first make people laugh, and then make them think.” And like every year, this edition didn’t fail to both entertain and amaze us.

Patricia Yang and colleagues at the Georgia Institute of Technology won the Ig Nobel for Physics after they solved the riddle of how wombats make cube-shaped poop.

“The first thing that drove me to this is that I have never seen anything this weird in biology. That was a mystery,” said Yang. “I didn’t even believe it was true at the beginning. I Googled it and saw a lot about cube-shaped wombat poop, but I was skeptical.”The researchers found that near the end of the digestive system, the poop turned from liquid to solid, and that’s when it becomes a cube. The group believes that the elasticity of the wombats’ intestinal walls allows for this process to take place, and at quite a high pace — wombats typically produce 80-100 cubes per night. The wombat’s dry environment also plays a role in its bricklaying.Meanwhile, French researchers measured “scrotal temperature asymmetry in naked and clothed postmen in France.” According to Roger Mieusset, a researcher at Paul Sabatier University in Toulouse, a man’s left scrotum is slightly hotter than the right. The researchers, which received the Ig Nobel in Anatomy, say that their findings may explain why the left testicle hangs slightly lower than the right.

Did you know that pizza could stave off illness and even death? Now I’ve got your attention. Apparently, these were the findings of Silvano Gallus and colleagues who found eating pizza was associated with a reduced risk of breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer — but only if the pizza was made in Italy. In their study, the researchers acknowledged that the effect may be due to the overall Mediterranean diet that many Italians use and which numerous studies have recognized as one of the healthiest in the world.Every parent has wondered how much saliva their 5-year-old produces, right? A Japanese team has the answer: about 500 ml per day. Shigeru Watanabe, a professor of pediatric dentistry at the School of Health Sciences at Meikai University in Urayasu, and colleagues were awarded the Ig Nobel in chemistry for their work, which was originally made in 1995. Fritz Strack, of the University of Wurzburg, in Germany, won the psychology prize for “discovering that holding a pen in one’s mouth makes one smile, which makes one happier — and for then discovering that it does not.”


So how many of you blokes checked their testicular leanings after reading this??

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 03:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

As usual, they only tell part of the story.
The so called blue hydrogen from Natural gas is rather energy intensive in that it treats the Natural gas with steam to produce the hydrogen.
Unfortunately it also produces carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide.
So instead of burning the natural gas to produce energy and carbon dioxide, we stick an intermediate step in to produce carbon dioxide.
And of course it is using fossil fuel as its feedstock, a finite non renewable source.
At least in the electrolysis version of the green hydrogen, the raw materials, water is quite abundant, is very renewable, and the byproduct, oxygen is a little more useful and less of a greenhouse gas than CO2.
And of course when hydrogen is "burnt" in the presence of oxygen to release the energy, the byproduct is water, which of course becomes the feedstock again. Simples.
I thought the whole point of these new renewable fuels was to stop using fossil fuels and reduce the CO2.
Mind you, Water vapour itself is a greenhouse gas, but the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is controlled by its temperature, rather then the other way around.
Still , tit is generally acknowledged that about 60% of global warming is due to water vapour.

Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The shorters may be rushing to cover.
Up over 10% to the the dollar mark.
Can only guess that the reason is due to the quarterly report where they suggested that production this year will be well into the upper end of the forecast .
Now waiting to approach that recent 1.50 high.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Another announcement out today.
Thats four in the past week alone.
It has taken a little while, but EDE is finally in the green for me.
Maybe those fee options we got in the last cap raising might start to look attractive as well.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 07:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Hmm, not sure if I would put a lot of credence on lawyers pontifications.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 07:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I watched the game in full. The Oz girls are a classy outfit, though they did drop two catches, one of them a sitter.
Attapathu has now got 7 of the eight top innings in ODI's for her country, as well as the two top T20 innings scores.
And yet she has not been offered a contract in the WBBL, which I find rather surprising.
Someone should sign her up quick smart.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

EDEhas had a few announcements of late re US states adopting their concrete additive products .
May be getting some bulk into the use of these.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 07:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Russia has engineered the removal of the first brick in the wall that protects the USD from being removed as the worlds reserve currency.
from RT.com

QUOTE
Russia’s largest oil company Rosneft has set the euro as the default currency for all new exports of crude oil and refined products.
As of September, Rosneft is seeking euros as the default option of payment for its crude oil and products, Reuters reported on Thursday, quoting tender documents the Russian firm has published.

“Rosneft has recently adjusted all the new contracts for export supplies to euros,” a trader at a company that regularly procures oil from Rosneft told Reuters, adding that buyers have already been notified of the change.


In another related article, fromRT

QUOTE
Russia will not take out loans in US dollars for the remainder of this year and the whole of 2020, turning instead to the yuan and euro, according to the Finance Ministry.
“We will borrow in currencies other than the dollar,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Thursday. He added that the country will not be taking any more loans in 2019.

“This year we have no plans to borrow any more on foreign markets, we have fulfilled our program and even overfulfilled it. Next year, we’ll see. Probably it will be not only in euro but maybe in Chinese yuan,” Siluanov stated back in March, Russia’s Finance Ministry issued Eurobonds worth €2.7 billion ($3 billion) with a maturity date in 2035. It also separately issued Eurobonds worth €750 million ($830 million) with a maturity date in 2025. In June, the Finance Ministry also placed additional Eurobonds worth €1.37 billion ($1.5 billion) with a maturity date in 2029, and €900,000 ($1 billion) with a maturity date in 2035.

Earlier, it was revealed that Moscow and Beijing are working on a new way of cutting their reliance on the US dollar, as Russia plans to issue its first yuan-denominated bond. The move is aimed at assisting both countries’ economies in dealing with US tariffs and sanctions. The proposal will also allow Moscow to extend its list of foreign creditors. While Chinese investors do not buy Russia’s ruble-denominated bonds, the launch of the yuan bonds would give them an opportunity to invest in Russian state debt.Meanwhile, due to steadily growing gold and foreign currency reserves, Russia’s state-debt-to-GDP ratio last month turned negative for the first time since 2014, when the country’s economy was battered by Western sanctions and the oil market crash. As of August 1, Russian state debt (at federal, regional and municipal levels) amounted to 16.2 trillion rubles (around $247.3 billion). At the same time, liquid assets of federal government, regional authorities and non-budget funds stood at 17.6 trillion rubles (nearly $268.8 billion).


Wish there was easy way to invest in Roubles. It is the best performing currency this year by far.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 6 2019, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I can see where they might get five. Sex is always best when there are two people involved.
I was always encouraged to never drink alone, so theres another two.
Driving is one thing that is best done one at a time.
Total 5.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 4 2019, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Just for interest, I senr t an email off to the Rivian pre order address to see if it was possible to preorder a RHD version.
Their answer was no, they have not announced their plans for Australia yet.
Note this does not mean they don't have any, just not announced yet.
But they promised to keep me informed via email of progress in that direction.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 3 2019, 10:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

It maybe that the next generation of storage devices are not chemical in origin ( as in batteries), but rather purely electrical.
Was reading the other day about new generati9n of capacitors, that can handle up to 30,000 farads.
A bunch of them in the vehicle would give. Some kick.
Mind you, I would not like to be around if when misfired. Would be plenty of smoke and noises.
I seem to revall attaching 1 farad capacitors to doorhandles etc as a joke for some unfortunate colleague.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 3 2019, 09:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, I read the article about the proof, and am still none the wiser.
Stats were never one of my strongest points.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 03:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Just watched the Healy Girl hit the highest T20 score in womens cricket. 148NO.
Not only can they play cricket, they are less aggressive, more sportspersonlike, but they are much better looking.
Two scores above 200 for a few wickets each time.
they are a long way ahead of the rest.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 08:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Good analysis, you have been pretty well spot on for a week or so.
I have been on wrong side.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 05:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Trouble is, if people cycle out of the USD , what are they going in to??
USD is the langua franca in many countries. I can't see what currency will replace it.
There is nothing else out there. No matter how much the Chinese huff and puff, the yuan will never replace the USD.
Its supposed to be happening any day for the last 15 years, and its no closer now.
It would require a level of trust between governments or blocks of governments for any other currency to become paramount.
You only have to look at history to see how well cooperation between Nations has turned out.
Its every man/woman for himself/herself, despite the rhetoric.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 03:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yeah, and the world coming to a climatic end in 12 years as per AOC, or the doomsday clock hits 12 midnight, or maybe someone will produce a net positive fusion reactor, or one of Nicholas Taleb;s black swans alights on the financial markets. Maybe Erlich might actaually be right and the population bomb will do us all in. Or maybe the glabalists win the battle over the the rest,. What about China imploding due to internal unrest. ( Or the UK, or Russia, or Indonesia, or the US, or even Australai). All of them have a level of internal angst.
There are multiple scenarios, but the unfortunately the venerable Rana doesn't know anymore than anyone else.
Soothsayers are a dime a dozen, and thats about what they are worth.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Just to emphasise that these are for real, Amazon has ordered 10,000 of these electric trucks from Rivian.

QUOTE
Talk about a startup coming out of nowhere: Amazon this week announced it’s buying 100,000 electric delivery vans from startup Rivian. Prototypes may reach Amazon next year, with deliveries from 2021 to 2024.

The Amazon order rockets Rivian from amusing curiosity (“hey, one more EV startup, like Fisker for trucks?”) to a company getting considerable attention at the November 2018 LA Auto Show (with SUV, pickup prototypes unveiled) to being taken seriously by bankers ($700 million Amazon investment in February, $500 million Ford investment in April plus announced Ford plans to use the Rivian platform in a Ford vehicle) to Player-with-a-Capital-P this week (at $100,000 a truck, Amazon’s order equals $10 billion).


AMAZON Bus Rivian

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Howdy Balance, I think the Rivian was discussed somewhere else.
Cool truck, would be the ultimate tow vehicle.
Have a few of those folding solar blankets, a bunch of andersen plugs and away ya go.
Might need to take a genny for those cloudy days.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 26 2019, 08:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

A victorian startup company has been quietly building electric trucks and vans.
From EV Trucks

QUOTE
FLEDGLING Australian electric powertrain specialist SEA Electric has doubled its production volume over the past 12 months and expects significant growth in the years ahead as it continues to expand its footprint on the back of new local and international contracts.

Less than three years since starting commercial operations, the Melbourne-based company now has close to 100 vehicles on the road with one of its SEA-Drive powertrains, and more than 60 employees in Australia and abroad who are developing the technology and forging partnerships with major manufacturers – including Ford Motor Company – as well as automotive suppliers, transport companies and other large organisations.
Financial details and the level of government support remain undisclosed, but GoAuto has learned that year-on-year compound revenue growth to the end of year three will be more than 230 per cent.
Focusing on commercial vans and light and medium trucks, SEA Electric has programs underway in Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, South Africa and, perhaps most notably, North America, where it recently sealed a deal with Detroit Chassis in Michigan to integrate the Aussie electric powertrain into Ford’s F-59 stripped chassis and produce a Morgan Olson-sourced walk-in step van for a still-secret “leading package delivery company”.
In an interview with GoAuto last week, SEA Electric’s regional director for Oceania, Glen Walker, said the company was fast approaching the “tipping point” where production would ramp up significantly at its Victorian base in Dandenong South – and at a forthcoming facility in Morwell on the Latrobe Valley coal belt – as well as in overseas markets, where it will licence the technology to the OEM or else supply the powertrain and install it where required.
It is also now set up to work with OEMs on engineering to prototype stage before ultimately licencing the full drivetrain for series production.

Mr Walker said the F-59 chassis that is found in a wide variety of vehicles, from motorhomes and school buses to US Postal Service vehicles and all manner of delivery vans, offered huge potential and that SEA Electric is working closely with development partners Roush, Fontaine and Detroit Chassis “for five Ford models currently identified, in collaboration with Ford Motor Company”.
SEA Electric’s regional director for North America, David Brosky, is also on record as saying the Ford F-59 electric chassis is expected to lead to “substantial follow-on orders from fleet customers within the next six to 12 months”.

“Currently it’s a pilot program, but discussions are ongoing,” Mr Walker said. “It (the chassis) is the foundation for many, many tens of thousands of vehicles in North America, whether they’re the UPS vans or school buses, so it’s a very versatile platform.
“We’ve currently produced one vehicle, and that’s had significant dynamometer testing and scientific testing, and it’s just about to hit the road.”

Mr Walker would not be drawn on specifying the large number of OEMs and other companies with which it is engaged in both R&D and contract negotiations, although it does have local conversion pilot programs in place with Isuzu and Hino, and is also known to be working with Ford, Isuzu and General Motors in the US.

“As much as I would love to share with you who they are, and what they are, (I can’t) – suffice to say we’re very excited about it and they are significant entities in the global automotive supply space,” he said.
“We’re approaching that tipping point where we don’t have to combat market acceptance, and on the other side of that tipping point is significant growth opportunity.
“We have at least doubled our level every year we have been operating, and I see no reason to assume that rate of increase won’t continue at that or even a higher rate.
“The business in growing, and it’s growing quickly.”
SEA Electric has just delivered Australia’s first electric tipper truck to the City of Yarra in Melbourne – developed in partnership with Isuzu Australia – and also last week donated an early prototype delivery truck to the Victorian branch of the Salvation Army’s Salvos Stores, which now stands as the first charity retailer in Australia to have an EV on its national distribution fleet.

Just as city councils offer strong sales potential for SEA, the company’s charitable endeavours will bring broad publicity and kudos and could lead to a supply contract with the Salvos, who are looking to develop an EV strategy, as well as with other organisations.
The company is mainly targeting those which use commercial vehicles for short stop-start delivery runs and back-to-base operations, which can do without an external charging infrastructure.
“We don’t look upon ourselves as an OEM in our own right, even though we have some vehicles where we are, and that was mainly driven out of necessity,” said Mr Walker, noting other prototypes SEA has built based on King Long vans imported from China as “gliders” (sans engine).
“Our preferred way to market in Australia is to be partnering with an OEM, supplying an electrified drivetrain and/or installing an electrified drivetrain.
“But we’re not limiting ourselves to one geography. Our platform is scalable, it’s adaptable, and it’s been designed to be as versatile for the broadest range of platforms we can possibly imagine.
“And by partnering with the OEMs in the relevant country, we’re able to quickly deploy prototype vehicles for them to test and verify.”
SEA Electric is also building its presence, one prototype at a time, with companies that have a large carbon footprint, such as DHL and Ikea in Europe.
“There are organisations that have publicly expressed a desire to lower their carbon footprint and, for many of those organisations, transport is a key part of that,” Mr Walker said.
“And in discussions with those organisations, usually from that will come a (pilot SEA Electric) vehicle – or a small number of vehicles.
“What’s important to focus on is we do not expect those companies to treat us any differently from what they do any other supplier of vehicles.
“Our vehicles have to stand or fall on their application suitability, and on their whole-of-life operating cost, and we’re confident that the whole-of-life operating cost models that we have are true and correct and that they do show a reduced overall total cost of ownership over the first five years.
“And we’re also confident in their application suitability in the sub-23t (GVM) back-to-base each day, 200-250km run.”
Mr Walker also said the EV powertrain can be easily adapted to used vehicles, and that the company was working on the case for retrofitting pre-owned urban delivery vehicles in Australasia and further afield, particularly emerging markets in Asia.
“That is a market that we’re actively exploring at the market, both here and overseas,” he said.


Interesting.

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 18 2019, 02:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

One of the detection systems that Drone Shield uses is the sound of the rotors.
Its not loud, but certainly detectable.
At first, I thought that this was a pretty smart way of detecting, , as physics says that the rotors will emit noise, not necessarily at the frequencies of human hearing, but beat osscillations non the less.
Then it suddenly hit me that in the same way that Automatic Noise Reduction Headphones work, a drone maker could add a sample of the noise being made and just emit the same noise, but at 180 degrees out of phase.
Thus the two cancel each other out and silence is all that remains.
The next step is to change the algorithms in the GPS satellite software such that the satellites can be switched off to non "friendly" devices.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 18 2019, 08:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Capitulation? More likely Manipulation.
Why some people keep saying that we must be open to trade with China is beyond me.
They are only interested in trade if it benefits the Chinese mainly.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 16 2019, 08:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Perhaps you blokes should look at Stand up Comedy.
Though on second thoughts, given the age of some of us, it should be sit down comedy, maybe even post nap lying down comedy.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 16 2019, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

As I have been a captive market sitting up in rehab after getting a new left knee, between being interrupted by the nurses constantly doing obs, I have been able to watch most of this last test.
We were outplayed. Oz players looked tired, but gave their all.
Mathew Wade played extremely well, both of his centuries justify his selection.
There has been much made of the DRS system.
One of the reasons that England got significantly more LBW decisions was because they bowled a fuller length.
Nbut we got the ashes, which was the main aim of the game.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 09:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yeah, it's usually the ones who can least afford it who end up the losers.
The winners are the ones who control the rules of the game..
The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 08:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

From The Australian

QUOTE
Ultra-low interest rates and looser banking restrictions have sparked the fastest rise in mortgage lending in five years, as senior economists warn the growth risks reinflating a dangerous housing bubble.

Official data released on Monday revealed the number of new loans approved in July surged 4 per cent after the lending rules were loosened and following the re-election of the Morrison Government.

It came as analysts raised concerns the economy was still facing a slowdown given Canberra’s reluctance to use fiscal policy to stimulate household consumption.

The lending figures — the fastest increase in borrowing since October 2014 — came after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates twice in two months for the first time since the global financial crisis, bringing rates down to the current record low of 1 per cent.

The RBA has warned rates could be pushed close to zero if economic activity doesn’t pick up.

JPMorgan senior economist Sally Auld said the strong lending figures could trigger a resurgence in the Australian economy, which last week notched up its slowest quarter since the global financial crisis.

“But it’s not really the growth we want,” Ms Auld said. She said the increase in household debt and further reliance on the property market to drive the economy “will just make the vulnerability worse down the track”.

“Very large revisions to the credit data last month suggest the regulator has well and truly loosened its approach to investor mortgage lending,” Ms Auld said, pointing to a recent revision where the RBA reclassified $72 billion worth of wrongly classified owner-occupier loans as investor mortgages, equal to a 12 per cent increase in the stock.


It seems that we are doomed to being part of continuous boom and bust cycles forever.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Zero hedge carry an interview with Greenspan.
Have not agreed with much he has done since he chaired the FED, but has an interesting take on gold.

From Zero Hedge

QUOTE
During the interview, Greenspan focused on an interesting fundamental he thinks is driving both the bond and gold markets - the aging population. He said there has been a shift in time preferences as people recognize they will likely live longer and they will need to finance those longer lives. This, he says, is increasing the demand for hard assets like gold.

One of the reasons that the gold price is rising as fast as it is … that’s telling us essentially that people are hard resources which they know are going to have a value 20 years from now, or 30 years from now as they age, and they want to make sure they have the resources to keep themselves in place. That is a clearly fundamental force that is driving this.

Historically, gold has served as an inflation hedge and a wealth preserver. It makes sense that investors concerned about maintaining their savings well into the future would turn to gold. This is especially true given the likelihood of increasing inflation as the Federal Reserve continues to try to prop up the economy with low interest rates and quantitative easing.
Peter Schiff has said that eventually, the world will drown in an ocean of inflation.

Every central bank has bought into this nonsense that we must have inflation and that interest rates need to be negative. Inflation needs to be high enough to have real negative rates all over the globe. That’s where we are heading. So, if that is the case, people have no place to hide except gold and that is why they’re buying.”

Greenspan also talked about negative interest rates. He said the aging population is also one underlying factor in falling bond yields. An aging population is driving demand for bonds, pushing up the price and driving down yield. He says he eventually expects to see negative yields in the US.

You’re seeing it pretty much throughout the world. It’s only a matter of time before it’s more in the United States.”

There is now more than $15 trillion in negative-yielding debt globally. Greenspan said when there is a significant change in the attitude of the population, the “look for coupon.”

As a result of that, there’s a tendency to disregard the fact that that has an effect in the net interest rate that they receive.”

As far as the economy goes, Greenspan said it “seems to be sagging.”

Former Reagan OMB director David Stockman had another take on falling bond yields, saying recently that the bond market is in the “mother of all bubbles.”

What we’re seeing is rampant speculation in the bond market. Investors are banking on continued bond-buying by central banks. They believe this will continue to push prices up and they’re speculating on the rising prices. It’s nothing but a massive bond market bubble.”


Bill Bonner has another take on gold.

QUOTE
In 1980, stocks traded at an all-time bottom, in gold terms, when you could buy all 30 Dow stocks for less than 2 ounces of gold. By 1999, they hit an all-time high, when it took 40 ounces.

In terms of time, the move was less dramatic – but it told the same story.

The average working man had to work about 100 hours to buy the Dow stocks in 1980. By 1999, he had to put in 821 hours.

It looked like the stock market was out of whack on both ends.

In 1980, stocks were too cheap. In 1999, they were too dear. But then, the stock market began a “correction.” The Nasdaq started to fall in January 2000. A year and a half later, it was down nearly 80% from its peak.

Measured in time, it took the average person 350 hours of labor to buy the Nasdaq in 1999. By mid-2001, it took only 85.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials wiggle-waggled around after January 2000, but fell hard after the mortgage meltdown in 2008.

At the bottom, in March 2009, the average person could buy the Dow for about half as many hours of work as it cost him 1999.


Hence, its obvious to Bill that the DOW is wildly over priced, and is well due for a correction.
He goes on further to say

QUOTE
With the help of the late Dow Jones theorist Richard Russell, we began to see that stock and bond markets followed big, long-term patterns.

It took about 20-40 years for the stock market to complete a full cycle – top to top. The bond market took even longer. Scarcely anybody is still around who recalls the top of the last bull market in bonds. It happened in 1949; now, 70 years later, they’re hitting a new bubble high.

While we knew we couldn’t predict the markets, we began to see that we could spot major tops and bottoms by looking at prices in terms of gold.

The yellow metal is not perfect money. Like everything else in the natural world, it is subject to fits and furies. But it is still the most reliable money humans ever found. And over time, it does a fair job of telling us when things are out of whack.

This led to a very simple Capital Loss Avoidance System, which proved to be very effective for long-term capital preservation: Any time you can buy the Dow for less than 5 ounces of gold, you should buy all the stocks you can. Then, when the Dow goes over 15 ounces of gold, you should sell stocks, buy gold, and sit tight until stocks fall again.

The real beauty of it is that it doesn’t require any research or any pretense of knowledge.

A quick check sees the dow currently costing about 17 ounces of gold to buy the DOW.
So, one has to ask, based on this theory, is gold massively underpriced, or is the DOW massively overpriced.
It would seem its a bit of both, but with a greater fall in the DOW than a rise in gold on the cards.

Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, I am out of ALK.
Having doubled since I bought in, even if it was more good luck than good management, it is too good a profit to pass up.
I was more interested in the Rare earths side of the business than its gold production, but what the heck.
It may go higher, but there is no point in being greedy.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Hope it does go above 69, will be buying FOREX at above 69.20.
Just on that note, despite the sanctions in Russia, the Rouble has been the big mover this year.
From Chuck Butler

QUOTE
Well, the BIG news from this weekend as far as currencies are concerned came from Russia, where after 5 years of economic sanctions, the Russian economy continues to grow! Industrial output is on the rise, the Russians believe they will have a record harvest this year, their Current Account is in surplus by $500 Billion… and… Inflation, which has always been a bugaboo for the Russians, has been falling for the past couple of years, and while it was expected to fall to 4.3% this year, it appears that it will be more likely around 3%... With deposit rates still above inflation, that means that Russia, as opposed to most countries, the U.S. included, do not have real negative rates…

The currency, the ruble, rallied big time on the news

More from Chucks Newsletter
QUOTE
Coming in second place for the currency news was China's announcement that they would cut their Reserve Ratio percentage by 50 Basis Points (1/2%). A Reserve Ration cut is akin to an interest rate cut, as it frees up more money to use to support the economy... This news was welcomed by the Asian and Pan Asian Currencies and followed by a rally in this region's currencies.

And just when it appeared that the Chinese renminbi would slip off the ledge and fall into a deep dark abyss, this reserve ratio cut allowed the renminbi to rally for what seems like the first time in month of Sundays!

it's not all gloom and doom news coming from the U.K. these days, although I do have to say that this one caught me by surprise... U.K. GDP saw a 0.3% growth print for July, after June's 0.0% print, there were, and I among them, economists that thought the U.K. was already in recession...

This news was welcomed in the European region, and allowed pound sterling to rally, but left the euro stuck in the mud.
.
So Russia, with a load of sanctions, the UK with the problems of Brexit, both have economies that are travelling well ahead of the pack.
There must be a lesson in this, just can't work out what it is.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

And over time, this will become larger as more and more dollars pour into super.
The SGC rate is slated to eventually jump to 15%.
With such poor returns for cash, the cash has to be converted into non cash assets.
There is not enough quality assets at reasonable prices left in OZ, so overseas is where they go.
Super funds think long term, as most of their clients have to wait a long time to get their returns.
I am hoping the the AUD can creep a bit higher, and I will start looking at FOREX again as I wait the next drama to cause AUD to fall again.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 9 2019, 08:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

George Dobell has produced a wonderfully insightful analysis of England cricket.
England are not as good as they think they are.

QUOTE
That's, basically, the story of this England side. It's full of batsmen with big reputations and small averages. Batsmen who can impress for an hour or two but lack the old-school skills required to build match-defining innings. And bowlers who, while honest, were put in the shade by the sustained excellence of Cummins and Hazlewood. Yes, England did wonderfully well to win the World Cup. But in Test cricket, at least, they're not as good as they think they are. They need an honest appraisal of where they are - much like Jamaica in 2009 - if they are to move forward.


He points out that only one player, Captain Joe root averages more than 36 in test cricket.
Stokes and Bairstow average 35 and 36 respectively. Butler at 33 is the only other player averaging above 30.
And Roots performance since taking on the Role of captain has been telling.
Prior to taking on the role he averaged 52.8, since assuming the captaincy it has fallen to 40.8
Which brings me to the latest calls for Smith to retake the captaincy from Paine.
Smith was a pretty good batsmen while he was captain.
He has gone to a new level since not having that burden.
Don't bring him back, let him be a champion cricketer without the burden of Captaincy.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 9 2019, 02:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Duxton getting a littlennegative publicity.

From The Australian
QUOTE
Investors are allegedly hoarding billions of litres of water, ratcheting up the cost and cruelling food growers who claim they face a massive artificial price spike that is crippling agriculture.

Representatives from about a dozen horticultural industries have written to Water Resources Minister David Littleproud claiming the non-farm water investors are playing the market.

They say the result is a market “squeeze”, pushing up the price of water for irrigation from a longterm average of about $135 a megalitre to $800.

At those prices, farmers say, many crops are no longer profitable, with growers suffering severe financial and emotional hardship that may ultimately force them to “turn off”, or not water, grape vines and nut and citrus trees.

Darren Minter, who farms citrus, almonds and asparagus south of the Victorian city of Mildura, said he would lose money this year, and next year might have to cut off water to his almond trees and not grow asparagus, resulting in no work for 150 employees.

“We want action today because if we keep going this way, it’s going to drive a lot of farmers bust,” Mr Minter said. “Water barons who own water, who don’t own land, should be stopped immediately.”

One of the signatories to the letter to Mr Littleproud, Australian Grape and Wine chief executive Tony Battaglene, said “We have become far more vulnerable to the water trading system”.

Mr Battaglene said at current prices, grape growers were at a “tipping point” on deciding whether it was worth irrigating.

“Once the water price increases up towards $800, it means that it is very hard to produce a crop that can be made into wine that can sell,” he said.

It is understood that among other requests, the letter from the agricultural groups calls for a temporary ban on non-landowning water investors from buying water, and from “carrying over” water from one year to the next.

Sources familiar with the letter said it did not name names but the greatest concern was South Australian company Duxton Water Ltd.

Over three years since it listed on the stock exchange, Duxton Water has amassed water rights worth $256m, giving it control over 74 billion litres of water entitlements, equivalent to the capacity of the Woronora Dam near Sydney.

Rather than sell or lease all its annual water allocations each year, Duxton has “carried over” some water and increased its entitlements by 12.5 billion litres in the six months to June.

While irrigation farmers are fearful of speaking out about Duxton, the head of the largest olivegrowing enterprise in Australia, Rob McGavin, was prepared to express a view to The Australian.

“My concern about Duxton is the amount of allocation water they have reportedly purchased over the last 18 months compared to their annual consumptive use or need, and the material impact this could be having on the price all irrigators are having to pay for allocation water,” Mr McGavin, the chief executive of Boundary Bend Ltd, said.

Duxton Water says its shareholders enjoyed a total return of nearly 30 per cent in the year to June.

In the six months ended June 30, during a severe drought now officially classed as the worst ever, Duxton more than doubled its half-year profit compared with the corresponding period last year, to $2.5m.

Mr McGavin said non-farm water traders and brokers were “driving Maseratis” at a time when farmers were going broke.

He criticised the decision over recent years to change the system in which water entitlements were tied to land ownership to allow non-land-owning investors to purchase water and trade it.

In one example, since the water market in northern Victoria was opened to non-land owners, they have acquired 12 per cent of the volume, while government environmental water holders account for 28 per cent and 57 per cent remains tied to land.

Mr McGavin said the 12 per cent owned by non-farm investors had a disproportionate effect on the market because most of that owned by farmers was used on their farms rather than traded.

Mr McGavin noted that California, among other jurisdictions, banned non-farmers from owning agricultural water precisely to avoid speculation.

“Australian farmers are being used as a real-life guinea pig test case to let the free market rule, but nobody else thinks it’s a good idea,” Mr McGavin said.

“The problem is that one person with a big chequebook can own so much water, working in an office, not slashing the vines and so on. It seems to me that it becomes unfair.”

In a statement to The Australian, Duxton Water said it was a long-term investor in water, not a speculator. It said just over half its water entitlements were let out on long-term lease to irrigators.

“The company will continue to actively manage its allocation holding in order to meet its obligations to its farming partners both short and long term,” it said.

“Our goal is to be a long-term partner with the farming community and to make it easy for farmers to access water over shorter and longer-term periods.”

Duxton said it carried more than $8m worth of water to meet its future commitments to farmers, saying such an amount was “not material”.

It denied its activities had pushed up the price of agricultural water, saying the spike was the result of huge amounts of planting of permanent crops, the government buy-back of water entitlements for environmental flows and drought.

Earlier this year, Mr Littleproud announced that he had asked the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission to investigate the water trading market, and The Australian is aware of at least one letter to the ACCC from an agricultural business listing concerns about Duxton and other non-farm water owners.

In a statement to The Australian, Mr Littleproud encouraged all water users to make a submission to the ACCC. “I want to be sure the water market isn’t being distorted,” he said, adding: “There is a lack of transparency”.

“I want to make sure that family farming businesses are not locked out of the water market,” he said. “I do not want to see traders, brokers or any major market players pushing up water prices as water is a critical resource.”


Having lived in the Goulburn Valley for 40 years, I have seen many changes in irrigation over time.
One of the biggest mistakes was to separate water from the land.
There are a number of local water brokers who say they provide a "service" and help to discover the water prices.
However, like the other investors who trade, they don't produce anything, don't grow anything, just take a fee for the service.
They do very well I might add, but the farmers who actually produce something with the water, once again get squeezed.
Lower prices for their produce, higher prices for their cost inputs.
I can see the likes of Dutton and Webster getting pressure from rural groups.
I have sold out of Websters just in case.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 8 2019, 07:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

You may well have a point there about Langer.
Smith is much better off without the captaincy.
He can offer some advice, but I don't think he was the captain say Mark Taylor or Steve Waugh have been.
He is a little like Ponting, a brilliant and champion player who lacked the tactical nous and understanding of players of lesser ability than themselves.
I would persist with Tim Paine.
His keeping is excellent, and he will learn in the role as captain.
There is no one else crying out for the role.
On the subject of keepers, I wish Wade would just shut up on the field.
The inane rubbish he goes on with is supposed to get under the batsmens skin.
So far, he is only getting under mine.
I cannot but feel sorry for warner.
Rory Burns in particular had numerous close calls in all his innings bar this one.
Warner has gone on the very first good ball every time bar one.
As I said, luck plays such a big part in test cricket.
Right now, Warners luck bowl is totally empty.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 6 2019, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Been away in the ouback with no phone reception. Imagine my surprise when we finallyget back in phone reception. What a player that boy Smith is.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Sep 3 2019, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Ya gotta wonder how many chances some players get versus the rest.
Is Khawaja worth persisting with??
He has had so many chances, and although at times he has looked langudly good, there have been many more failures.
Marsh? For heavens sake, how many more chances does he get??
If the track looks like being flat, use Siddle. He can bowl line and length for long periods, and his batting isn't that far behind Marsh.
Gotta feel for players who get one or two tests and then discarded.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 31 2019, 09:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The UK and Europe are locked in a battle over the Brexit details.
Whatever people think of Margaret Thatchers policies, in some areas she was remarkably prescient.
From a speech she gave to CNN World Development Conference
QUOTE
If the divergence between different European economies is so great that even the ERM cannot contain them, how would those economies react to a single European currency? The answer is that there would be chaos of the sort which would make the difficulties of recent days pale by comparison.

Hugh sums would have to be transferred from richer to poorer countries and regions to allow them to take the strain. Even then unemployment and mass migration across now open frontiers would follow. And a full-fledged Single currency would allow no escape hatch.

The political consequences can already be glimpsed: the growth of extremist parties, battening on fears about mass immigration and unemployment, offering a real — if thoroughly unwelcome — alternative to the Euro-centrist political establishment.

If in addition you were to create a supra-national European federation, and the people could no longer hold their national parliaments to account, extremism could only grow further.

It is time for the European politicians to sit up and take note. Time to stop their endless rounds of summits — summitry is fast becoming a substitute for decision-making — and observe the reality around them.

There is a growing sense of remoteness, an alienation of people from their institutions of government and their political leaders. There is a fear that the European train will thunder forward, laden with its customary cargo of gravy, towards a destination neither wished nor understood by electorates. But the train can be stopped.

Tomorrow, the French people will vote on the future of Europe. It is not for me to instruct them on French interest.

But I must stress that the referendum is not a vote on whether we should have a European Community — but on what kind of European Community it should be.

Whatever the result, France will continue to build Europe because Europe cannot be built without France. But is it to be a Europe des Bureaux? Or a Europe des Patries? The Europe of Delors? Or the Europe of De Gaulle? If I were a Frenchwoman, I would rally to the General's standard and cry: “Vive L'Europe Libre!” .



If ever there was an apt description of what is happening in the UK and Europe, there it is. She predicted the rise of alienated exremist parties, and "Europe des Delors".

Hindsight is easy, foresight is brilliant.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 30 2019, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The tour game against Derbyshire started well, knocking the locals off for 172.
Neser and Starc among the wickets.We started batting well with Khawaja and Harris racking up a100 opening stand before Harris got run out.
So who comes in next??
Not Smith, who needs some practicie ducking, not Wade who just needs some practice, not Labuschagne who has had plenty of practice batting recently.
No they send in Mitchell Marsh.
Can only see the Langer hand at play here, must think because Stokes played a one man band role for England, Marsh can do the same.
Nuts.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 04:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Thanks for the original; headsup, bought at 2.15, so happy so far.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Oz only have them selves to blame.
Harris dropped a chance at deep square leg, difficult, but still a chance.
Lyon failed to get a hand on another one that went for four.
Paine wasted the second review on an LBW appeal that was clearly pitching outside leg.
If they had not done so, the review would most deffinately have been the end.
Yes it was an ordinary decision to give not out.
Lyon also fluffed the run out chance the ball before the non LBW.
You need luck in test cricket.
Stokes had his fair share, lots of plays and misses, a fairly plumb LBW turned down, and some very close runouts he got away with.
But he also played some amazing shots,and although it gave me a sick feeling in my guts as it unfolded, I had to admire the bloke.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I wasn't sure whether I should put this in the news section or the gold section, but as I have already fluffed a lot about gold, I decided on the former.

QUOTE
As the Federal Government moves to ban cash transactions above $10,000, there's a theory gaining traction that the real motive for the cash ban isn't the so-called "black economy", but rather, to give authorities greater control over your behaviour during recessions.

$10,000 cash ban on the cards

Paying more than $10,000 in cash could make you a criminal under proposed law
This theory, put forward by economists such as John Adams — and picked up by some federal politicians — has not been plucked out of thin air.

It is based on repeated public papers and statements by the international body in charge of financial stability — the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF).

A recent IMF blog entitled "Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work", explains its motive in wanting negative interest rates — a situation where instead of receiving money on deposits, depositors must pay regularly to keep their money with the bank.

As the blog notes, during the global financial crisis central banks reduced interest rates.

Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries, and "while the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable".

"Severe recessions have historically required 3 to 6 percentage points cut in policy rates," the IMF blog observed.

"If another crisis happens, few countries would have that kind of room for monetary policy to respond."

The article then goes on to explain that to "get around this problem", a recent IMF staff study looked at how it could bring in a system that would make deeply negative interest rates "a feasible option".

The answer, it said, is to phase out cash.

Cash acts as an 'interest rate floor'
When cash is available, cutting interest rates into negative territory becomes impossible.

We are being pushed into a cashless world

The RBA says cash will become a niche payment sooner than we think, as the Government considers imposing tougher penalties on cash economy activity.
Cash acts as "an interest rate floor" as people hold cash when bank deposit interest rates are at zero.

The thought of paying the major banks to hold your money isn't one that most consumers would jump at.

The alternative — as risky as it may be — is hoarding cash, or making investments in tangible commodities like gold.

So, the end game, the article explains, is the IMF's ideal world — one without cash.

"Without cash, depositors would have to pay the negative interest rate to keep their money with the bank, making consumption and investment more attractive," it said.

This, would "jolt lending, boost demand, and stimulate the economy".

In other words, the central banks get greater control to influence your behaviour and economic outcomes.

For those who have faith in monetary policy and central banks, this is no problem.

But one year on from the banking royal commission, faith in our financial institutions — and the regulators who failed to police the banks' bad behaviour — isn't exactly at an all-time high.

Negative interest rates could affect Australia
This weird world where savers are penalised — and borrowers get paid — is no longer just a problem for central banks in Europe and Japan.

Australia joins low rate club

With the cash rate down to a fresh low of 1 per cent, Australia has entered what's been dubbed the "era of irrationality, impotence and inequality".
The Reserve Bank's consecutive interest rate cuts in June and July have taken the cash rate to an historical low at just 1 per cent.

Put this together with Governor Philip Lowe's comment on August 9 at a parliamentary hearing.

He was asked by Labor's Andrew Leigh what work the Reserve Bank has done on what "unconventional monetary policy" might look like as Australia heads towards the zero lower bound of interest rates.

Dr Lowe answered: "I think it's unlikely, but it is possible. We are prepared to do unconventional things if the circumstances warranted it."

In answering some other questions Dr Leigh threw his way, Dr Lowe also noted that "monetary policy is less effective than it used to be".

"Once upon a time, when we lowered interest rates people were very quick to run off to the bank to borrow more to spend," he said.

"In today's environment people don't run off to the bank to borrow more when interest rates fall; they are more likely to pay back their mortgage more quickly."

Dr Lowe also noted international political tensions are weakening the global outlook, "and it's very hard for central banks to completely offset that".

Phasing out cash to target Aussie 'national sport'
Now let's return to the problem of the 'black economy'.

Why we love cash so much

If cash is good enough for central banks and it's still popular with the public, will the Government's crackdown on large transactions work?
Australia is not standing alone in moving towards a cash limit.

A number of other countries have already imposed limits — France has banned cash transactions above 1,000 euros; Spain above 2,500 euros; Italy above 3,000 euros.

Also, in 2016 the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would end the production and issuance of its 500 euro note at the end of 2018.

As the ECB was implementing this change, the man who headed the Federal Government's Black Economy Taskforce — the late Michael Andrew (he died in June) — was undertaking the enormous task of pulling together an array of information about the scale of the illegal cash economy.

Mr Andrews has previously said that the biggest hurdle to tackling the black economy is cultural.

Australians, he said, viewed taking cash-only payments and not declaring it as "almost a national sport".

The taskforce went on to estimate the cost of the illegal cash economy could now be about 3 per cent of GDP — roughly $50 billion.

But, this figure, it said, was a qualitative estimate, based on a wide definition of what activities make up the black economy.

The $50 billion estimate included a host of activities including underpaying wages or paying for work cash-in-hand, under-reporting income, sham contracting, phoenixing, identity fraud, ABN and GST fraud, evasion of illicit tobacco, money laundering, unregulated gambling, criminal acts, counterfeit goods and illegal drugs.

More changes flagged under 'black economy' banner
The taskforce in its final report suggested that the ABS do proper modelling on the economic and social costs.

Proposal to fight black economy under fire

Experts have slammed a Treasury proposal to reverse the onus of proof for black economy crimes.
This work has not yet been done.

Yet the Government is moving ahead with proposed laws that could make people criminals — with the threat of two years in jail — for spending more than $10,000 in cash.

The politics will dictate whether and how quickly the Government can push its cash limit bill through, with One Nation already indicating it will not support the proposed law, but Labor saying it likely will.

Opposition assistant treasury spokesman Stephen Jones has also indicated that he wants to see the ban apply to Bitcoin — a move that would send the Bitcoin industry into disarray given its repeated public campaigns to invest in the digital currency to avoid the proposed cash ban.

But that's not all that is in store under the Government's 'fighting the black economy' banner.

Treasury is asking the public whether the Government should also change the law to reverse the onus of proof for "serious black economy offences" and give the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) even more powers to hunt down whomever it deems to be a 'black economy' criminal.

This proposal has already faced much criticism from tax experts and business lobbies that say such measures could adversely impact the rights of individuals and their liberties.


I see the removal of cash as inevitable for a variety of reasons.

1. Reduces the ability of criminals to hide transactions.
2.Reduces the ability of people to avoid transaction taxes and GST/VAT.
3. Makes bank branches redundant.
4. The Reserve actually loses money printing notes, minting coins etc., so would be a saving for them.
5. people can be tracked by their EFT transactons. Always good for authorities to be able to track their citizens.
6. No messy handling of germ filled cash by customers/employees.
7. Makes even more money for the banks.

Elderly folk who have always used cash will be up in arms.
Civil libertarians will be up in arms.
Bob Katter will be up in arms.

But as usual, they will be overidden.

The biggest problem I can see is how am I going to pay for fuel or a meal at the store in Camerons Corner. No phone reception out there to do your EFT.

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Gold shot above 2300 AUD as the gold price jumped and AUD dropped below 0.67.
Question is, will the paper makers allow this to happen when the US market gets going tonight.
The Russians and Chinese have been buying physical for a few years.
Is this the time when they start the short queeze on PM's and kill off the paper traders once and for all??
Interesting Times.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 26 2019, 01:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

QUOTE
But that boy Stokes, jeez hes a fighter.
been their most consistent bowler , and probably their most reliable batsmen.
A real tough bugger.

Yep tough as nails. Great finish, oz had their chances and muffed them.
Great win by England , devastation for OZ. Will be hard for them to come back after this.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 25 2019, 05:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Trumps attack on Powell is misguided, but not for the reasons that he is Trump.
The US Fed has always done what it thinks is best for the big end of town.
Whether it thinks that by making the powerful and the wealthy(usually an intersecting set) even more powerful and wealthy, then some of the wealth (but never the power) t will trickle down to the less well off, or it just doesn't give a F$*^ about the folk below it is a moot point.
I am inclined to latter view.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 25 2019, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Ha ha!
Don't think it would be capable of actually being filled with water.
The rear axle maxes out at a little under 2 tonne.
Payload is under a tonne.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 25 2019, 12:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Poms did pretty well last night.
Apart from the first 15 overs or so, they have looked pretty much at ease.
Plenty of plays and misses, but you need luck on these sort of pitches. The Ozzies had plenty when they were batting, but eventually ya luck just runs out.
Root has had his fair shre, but good players take advantage of their luck.
New ball due early tonight should decide things one way or another.
Was a bit disappointed with Lyon last night, bowled well, and beat the bat lots of times, but did not pose as many problems as I expected.
But that boy Stokes, jeez hes a fighter.
been their most consistent bowler , and probably their most reliable batsmen.
A real tough bugger.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 25 2019, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Gold and Silver both shot up on Friday night (our time) as the latest rounds of trade wars spooked investors.
I would expect that the Oz goldies (and SVL) will have a big day Monday.
Another round of sharp rises, profit taking, and sharp falls awaits us.
Just keep em coming, at this rate I will have a Jacuzzi in my next Ram2500.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 24 2019, 08:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, it looked like a pleasant summers day on the TV. But it must have been a mistake.
Poms out for 60 odd.
Fantastic bowling by Hazlewood, and well backed up by Cummins and Pattinson.
And some excellent catching by Warner, though he blotted his copybook with another duck.
Surely now Kawaja will go onto the too unreliable list with Maxwell now.
Wade also skating on thin ice, though he does have a century this series.
Lead now 280 with four wickets to go.
Not a bad position to be in.
With the good bounce Lyon gets, I reckon he will have a bit to say in second innings.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 04:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

As someone who lived in Tanzania for 18 months, and having already been burned once by Rift Valley Resources, I would be extremely reluctant to place any of my hard earned into that country.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well done sir.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yep, seems the weather is crappy when OZ bat only.
Sun will shine and the ball will be ramrod straight when it resumes tonigh for the Poms to bat.
Oz will have to bowl exceedingly well.
Did enjoy the replay of the WACA test from a few years ago when Smith got his first century in OZ.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I bet none of them have ever heard of HGTTG, much less read it!.
I doubt they would understand irony.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Seems like the Employment figures are not quite as rosy in the US as we may have first thought.

From Market Watch
QUOTE
Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs.

The economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially calculated in its survey of business establishments. That’s the largest revision since the waning stages of the Great Recession in 2009.

The newly revised figures indicate the economy didn’t get a huge boost last year from President Trump’s tax cuts and higher federal spending. They also signal the economy is a bit weaker than previously believed and could give the Federal Reserve even greater reason to cut interest rates in September.

“This makes some sense, as the 223,000 average monthly increase in 2018 seemed too good to be true in light of how tight the labor market has become and how much trouble firms are said to be having finding qualified workers,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The average 223,000 monthly increase in employment in 2018 — the strongest in three years — could be trimmed to around 185,000, economists estimate.

Fewer jobs were created in restaurants, hotels, retailers and professional business services. Leisure and hospitality employment was reduced by 175,000, business services by 163,000 and retail by 146,400.


These figures come out once the Tax records are in a nd the BLS can check real employment changes against their survey estimates.
As someone who puts little credence on the wages figures put out by the ABS here in OZ, I was surprised to read that in most years the adjustments made to the BLS figures are around the 0.1% of the total non farm employment, pretty good by anyone's standards. These newly released figures were still only o.3% adjusted. Still pretty damn good I would have thought.
So although a revision downwards of 500,000 jobs seems huge, it turns out to be little more than a rounding error in the US.

What will be a little more important perhaps , is what the annual wages growth was for 2018.
Not sure when that gets released.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 22 2019, 07:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Looks like ya oil is good. Harris practicing at second slip in warmups.
Pattinson in for siddle, as Siddle appears not to be in warmups.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 22 2019, 06:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

From ABC News

QUOTE
A spat has broken out between a university debating club and student Liberals over a debate about assassinating political leaders who don't act on climate change.

The Society of Tasmanian University Debating has defended the topic of its gathering on Monday, but it has been accused of "insinuating violence as a means to solve political issues".

"In a democracy, freedom of speech must be respected, not abused, and political debate should always remain respectful," the University of Tasmania Liberal Students group said.

The debaters, however, said they were "indescribably frustrated" at the criticism and that the Liberals had missed the point of debating.

"In learning to do that, you learn to dissociate someone's oratory skills and how good their argument sounds prima facie from whether they are right.

"The point is to learn to argue things that are morally wrong, so when you hear people arguing things and they are convincing, you are immunised against them being convincing or also being wrong."



Can you imagine what would have happened if the liberals had put up a topic " that all members of the left should be assasinated".

They could have chosen the topic as "why climate change is all wrong". They could have all argued earnestly against something that they see as morally wrong without the violent undertones.

For a group that professes to be logical, quick thinking, and able to argue that black is white it is not a good look.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 22 2019, 05:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

QUOTE
One of the drawcards is CDU's estimated forward tax losses of $327 million


I was always under the impression that if a company changes ownership by more than 50%, tax losses do not carry forward.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 21 2019, 08:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Don't think it really matters.
Whoever "wins" the championship will crow about it for a day, then it will be quickly forgotten.
Another meaningless data point.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 21 2019, 08:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

From interview Ross Greenwood


QUOTE
Steelmaking giant BlueScope is investing in a $1 billion expansion in the United States, with energy costs one-third of those in Australia.

They have announced a huge expansion to a key mill in the United States which has the benefit of lower energy costs.

BlueScope CEO Mark Vassella tells Ross Greenwood he is concerned about the impact of energy prices.

“We still face energy costs in this country that are too high.

“The energy costs for our investment in North America are about a third of what we would pay in Australia.

Will probably see a bit more of this as Gas prices go through the roof.
On the 7.30 report last night was a piece about how we are about to become the biggest exporter of LNG, but we will be importing gas to cover the domestic market.
Heres an explanation as to why we have come to this.
Importing LNG

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 20 2019, 06:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Most of my gold stocks have taken a hammering over the past five trading days.
Price of gold in AU has eased a little, but nowhere near as much as the stocks have "eased".
We have had our pull back, are we in line for the next run up??
I personally hope it falls a bit further as I have some lowball bids waiting to be snapped up.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 20 2019, 06:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well we have had some volatility in the past few days!!!
Down from a high of 0.16 last Tuesday to a low of 0.10 today.
Went up too fast, now retracing just as fast.
Price of silver has barely moved, so I guess its people taking profits.
I have bought back in at 10.5

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 19 2019, 10:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Luck plays a very big part in cricket.
In both of these games there was huge numbers of plays and misses, catches just evading fielders, marginal LBW decisions that could have gone either way, review or no review.
Given some of the consistently poor umpiring, it starts to affect the thinking of the captains on whether to review or not.
I reckon the Aussies had the rub of the green in the first test, but perhaps went the other way this time.
Labuschagne showed enormous guts to bat it out given the circumstances of his entry, the quality of fast bowling, conditions, and the britlemness of those around him..
Was unlucky to get out the way he did, catch could have gone either way.
Bancroft batted for long periods, which is what you want for an opener, I would persist with him.evn if it was only for the for hios outstanding catching at short leg.
Warner must be skating on thin ice. Looks like a man troubled. And his catching really let him down this test.
Kawaja is so frustrating. looks so elegant and at ease then plays a crap shot.
He generally gets himself out.
Travis head has stood up given his limited ability. I never thought he would make it given his lack of technique, but he is proving me wrong.
Wade, well he has a century, but I don't think he is the answer.
Paine is the captain, so he stays and is a very good keeper. He was never picked for his batting.
The question is who have they got to replace any of these guys?
There is no one in the wings who has made a compelling case to be included.
Perhaps on the easier tracks in Oz they are all made to look better than they really are.
All the bowlers performed well at various stages.
Not that the Poms are much better. Surely Roy has proved to be a great one day player on flat tracks where he can hit through the line, but lacks technique for red ball cricket.
Rory Burns is similar to Bancroft, good temperament ideal for test cricket but with a limited ability, but uses it well.
Joe Root looks almost as badly out of form as Warner.
Denley is a pretty boy, who won't last.
Butler is only marginally batter batsmen than Paine, but is not as good a keeper.
Bairstow may have got himself into some form, we will have to wait.
Stokes, in the mould of Freddy Flintoff, and an excellent allrounder. in good touch.
Unless Oz top order can get some decent starts, I think they will struggle in the remaining tests.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 16 2019, 07:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yep EB, just sitting around waiting for them to call me up. Will even pay my own fare to UK.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 15 2019, 08:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, seems to have started ok. Hazlewood gets roy second ball.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 13 2019, 05:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Svl opened strongly today to have a few trades at 0.165.
But then some really serious selling took place to send it down to 0.125 at one stage.
Big volumes today.
Thats a fairly big swing, 25% in a single day.
Surprising seeing as Silver is still making new recent highs, up to 17.39 currently.
Be interesting to see what happens 2morrow.
Mind you, it looks like I am the only one interested.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 12 2019, 10:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

As both the missus and myself are in pension phase in our SMSF, we don't pay tax of any kind.
Seems a bit ridiculous, maybe even unfair, but there it is.
My accountant pointed me to this URL Capital Gains Tax
Buying and selling like there is no tomorrow.


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 12 2019, 09:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

QUOTE
so, what're you going to do?


Buy more gold.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 12 2019, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

sold another parcel today. Had the bid in for a week or more, and got surprised when it was taken out in the jump to 0.14 after the opening.
Someone just came in and hoovered up 5mill+ shares.
Don't mind, still got some left.
SVL is after all still an explorer, not actually producing any silver.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 12 2019, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Jim might be right this time.
The trouble is, Jim Rickards has been a non stop bull forever.
He is a regular on Kitco, and has been a gold bull forever.
If you constantly predict the same thing non stop, eventually you may be right.
Nothing wrong with his logic, just that the markets don't follow logic most of the time.
Mick (who is also a gold bull, and a silver bull, and one day will get it all right).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 9 2019, 12:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Going back a few years, from about 2011 thru to 2015 , I am sure we remember how the experts predicted that the USD would eventually be replaced by the Yuan/renmimbi as the default world currency of trade.
It is still no closer to happening.
The following article gives a few good reasons why it aint gunna happen soon.

yuan v usd

QUOTE
“The US dollar will collapse or it will be replaced by another currency” – we hear such statements all the time. Are they true? We decided to check these claims – so we invite you to read our today’s article about the US dollar’s international supremacy and find out whether the greenback’s demise is likely in the foreseeable future. Let’s also draw implications from the analysis for the precious metals market.

We have heard about the fall of the US dollar’s significance for over half a century. In particular, the rise of China’s economy threatens the greenback’s dominance. Trump’s unsound fiscal policy and the recent Powell’s dovish turn only reinforce these fears. So, let’s analyze whether such a scenario is likely in the foreseeable future and let’s draw implications for the precious metals market.
Investors should remember that there are four things needed in order for a currency to play a global role: size, stability, liquidity, and security. Although China’s economy and trade payments are big, the yuan is not stable, not liquid and not secure. The financial system is still heavily controlled by the authorities and it is not open and transparent.

Although the share of the US dollar in the world’s total foreign reserves has declined somewhat since 2015, it remained dominant, with share above 60 percent. The euro, which is the second most popular reserve currency, has share amounting to 20 percent, or one third of the greenback’s share. Moreover, although dollar’s role as official reserve diminished slightly, its share in bank external claims has risen. Similarly, volumes through U.S.-based dollar wire transfer and settlement systems have also continued to rise.

To sum up, Tina says that the US dollar will remain the world’s global reserve, despite all its shortcomings. Who is Tina? It is the slogan used by Margaret Thatcher: “there is no alternative”. Yen? Let’s be serious, Japan still cannot stand on its own feet after post-bubble recession, approaching the third lost decade. Euro? No way, as long as there are doubts about the Eurozone’s survival. Yuan? Maybe someday, but not anytime soon, as the renminbi is not freely floating, while China’s capital markets are not yet fully open.


One of the most instructive parts of this article is the chart of reserve currency levels. Tells its own story.

QUOTE
Let’s look at the chart below. The share of the yuan in global currency reserves amounted to 1.8 percent in Q3 2018. It does not look like a great threat for US dollar, does it?

Chart 1: Composition of World’s Total Foreign Currency Reserves from Q1 2010 to Q3 2018 (green line – US dollar, blue line – euro, purple line – pound sterling, orange line – Japanese yen, red line – Chinese yuan)





Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 9 2019, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Was speaking to someone who runs a number of profitable pubs.
He was telling me that this particular co is spreading into establishments such as his his as it helps with integration
of his till system, his payroll system and accounting system.
Been pretty hot of late, but I have bought a smal parcel just in case he is right.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 9 2019, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

QUOTE
I reckon Steyn is the best fast bowler of this generation and one of the best I have seen. He was always a threat no matter the pitch condition. Passionate and menacing. Excellent strike rate and average.


And now I see Amla has joined the exodus and retired from International Cricket.
Makes a big hole in SA cricket. Bit like Mcgrath and Gilchrist retiring at the same time.
Methinks they might struggle a bit.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 8 2019, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Ahh, the hippocracy of politicians.
After spending years complaining about the Russians interfering in the US political system (meaning Trump), US congresspersons have threatened to block US/UK trade deals if the UK brexit closes the Irish border.
The irony of it all.

QUOTE
Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border and jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland, congressional leaders and diplomats have warned.

Boris Johnson has presented a trade deal with the US as a way of offsetting the economic costs of leaving the EU, and Donald Trump promised the two countries could strike “a very substantial trade agreement” that would increase trade “four or five times”.

Trump, however, would not be able to push an agreement through a hostile Congress, where there would be strong bipartisan opposition to any UK trade deal in the event of a threat to the 1998 Good Friday agreement, and to the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The comments came as Johnson was in Northern Ireland in an effort to revive power-sharing talks between his allies in the Democratic Unionist party and Sinn Féin, as well as discuss Brexit preparations.

The Guardian

However, their ABC sees this in an entirely different light.
Here is the headline frrom ABC News

QUOTE
OPINION
Ireland's border, Brexit and white supremacy manifesting in a way Trump didn't expect


and here is some of the report.
QUOTE
QUOTE

Last week, the United States Congress made an extraordinary intervention in British politics.

The "Friends of Ireland" Caucus, which includes both Republicans and Democrats, made it clear they would not support any US-UK trade deal if Britain's exit from the European Union in any way jeopardised the Good Friday Agreement.

It's not surprising the co-chair of the caucus, Democrat Richard Neal, would say such a thing. But Mr Neal was supported in his statements by his Republican colleagues.

In the current political environment, such a bipartisan consensus over potentially defying the will of President Donald Trump is noteworthy, to say the very least.

Given just how much political stock both Mr Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have put into the potential for a US-UK trade deal, this congressional threat has serious implications.

But it also gives us an unusual insight into how white supremacy works in the US.

Setting aside O'Reilly's egregious use of the term "legally", his tweet revealed a great deal. For many Americans, connection to Ireland is not just about family history and a shared resentment of British repression — it's also about shared whiteness.

This understanding of whiteness is based on the insistence that racism does not exist because, as O'Reilly claimed, white people are oppressed too.

In some of the darkest corners of the internet, this idea even goes so far as to include the belief that Irish people were actually enslaved, and suffered as much as, if not more than, African-Americans and people of colour.

Just like the other ideas that inform white supremacist ideology, this is a persistent and dangerous myth. As the events of last weekend prove once again, that danger is far from hypothetical.



I won't make any further comment, seeing as a good percentage my own whiteness originates from Ireland.

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 8 2019, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Silver powered through the 17 handle overnight, though it has fallen back a bit.
May be able to bypass the LC200 series and go for a Ram diesel if this keeps up.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 7 2019, 06:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, Joffra Archer looks like a shoe in for the next test.
Took 6/27 with the ball, then whacked a quick fire 98 ball century.
Pretty hard to ignore those figures, even if it was on a postage stamp ground against a second division second 11.
On another note, I read that Dale Steyn has retired.
I always rated him ahead of Jimmy Anderson, even if it was only because he was less of an aggressive prick on the field.
Great bowler who probably will not get the accolades he deserves.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 7 2019, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Had my biggest ever one day gain today.
Thanks to gold and silver.
2200 an ounce now.
Still riding this thing up.
Officially scared.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 7 2019, 04:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

AUD about to go below 67 handle.
Gold in AUD terms is now over 200.
Wonder how long it will take before we start to see some inflationary effects creeping into prices, especially as transport costs go up.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 7 2019, 03:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

SVL up 20% today.
Up more than 100% since mid july.
Sold some more today, must be getting well into overbought territory.
It id not even a producer yet.
Now would be a good time for it to raise capital for the construction phase.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 6 2019, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yes, an excellent all round performance.
The OZ bowlers apart from Lyon were not overworked.
Lyon bowled 60 overs, and will need a weeks rest.
Siddle deserved more wickets, he was at least as good if not more consistent than Cummins.
I thought Patto was not as good in the second innings as he was in the first.
Maybe swap him for Starc.
Oz have a 3 day match against Worcester, but it may not be the best time to give all the other players a bit of time in the middle.
Starc Nesser and Hazlewood will be pushing like mad to get in.
Kawaja needs more time in the middle after his injury, so should play.
Bancroft would get a second go in the next test just for his outstanding fielding at short leg. the guy is fearless,. Was amazing to watch him track the batsmen as they jumped down the track.
But have Burns and Harris play the Worcester game just in case.
The poms on the other hand, have some big issues.
Jason Roy will pull off some big quick scores and look fantastic. But there will be a lot of failures in between.
Sometimes you need more than a good eye at the top level against quality bowling on a moving wicket.
Bairstow and Ali are the two biggest problems.
Both are woefully out of form.
Ali worse so, as his bowling is innafectual.
Surely Jack leach will come in, especially after his brilliant night watchman performance against Ireland last week.
Will Jimmy Andersen be fit to play??
Having made one mistake of playing when he was not quite fit, surely they won't make the same mistake twice. They desperately need Wood to be fit, but he won't be ready until the last test if at all.
Joffra Archerr?
He has not played red bal cricket for over a year.
He is scheduled to play for Essex second 11 in a three day game.
He too has been under an injury cloud.
As so many have found out before, five day cricket is a world away from the pyjama game.
Surely they won't play both Andersen and Archer.
The next big question is , what sort of pitch will the poms ask for?
Having decided they don't want a fast track as it is more helpfull to Oz bowlers than the English, they got a slow dry track.
Right up Lyons alley. Won't make that mistake again.
Perhaps if Root had won the toss and batted first it may have been different, though Oz bowlers may also have enjoyed those bowler friendly overcast conditions on the first day as well.
All in all, Oz will be in a much happier frame of mind the poms.
Who would thunk it?

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 09:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Still on the horse. Its galloping too fast foe me get off.
Need a canter.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I had stuck some low ball buys in a few weeks ago, but nothing got triggered.
Still miles up, so cant complain.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 11:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

After yesterdays big sell off in PM stocks, they are back with a vengeance today. With the double whammy of a jump in Gold in USD terms, plus a big fall in AUD to levels not seen since the GFC,
Gold has hit AUD 2125 , up about 28% in the past 12 months. It has broken out of the upward channel that has been in place since 2014.
There is every liklihood it will keep going in this phase.
In USD, gold is still a long way from the late 2010/early 2011 highs of 1900, so there is still a bit of a way to go to get into uncharted territory.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Aug 1 2019, 06:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Yeah, so if investors tank the dow, the USD rises, inflation is still happening at 2.00% plus, why the heck did gold and silver get crunched along with all my precious metal stocks?.
Seems a fraction odd.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 29 2019, 10:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Elyse Perry has become the first cricketer , male, female, or indeteterminate toscore 1000 runs and take 100 wickets in T20I’s.
She has played a little over 100 games to reach that mark.
What else does she have to do to get the accolades she so richly deserved.
If she were a bloke, she would have had a knighthood at least by now.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 25 2019, 12:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Wow, for a company that had its wheels fall off and suffered from mismanagement, DCN has now doubled.
I bought into this when it got down to 53.
I just felt there had been an over reaction.
From highs approaching 3 bucks to 50 cents is a fall way too steep for what changed.
Similar to SBM. The initial market reaction was over the top.
I can't believe the ridiculous heights that my gold stocks have reached.

Every time I think it must be near the to for them, it just keeps pushing on.
Just going to sit back and enjoy the ride.
RMS up 56%. EVN up 22%. SLR up 155%. SBM up 20%
And thats despute offloading some and reentering during this last run up.
Unreal.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 24 2019, 09:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

When I looked at the results I thought it was even more daft.
Both teams only just made it to 100.
No batsmen could muster 50.
Then I just looked at the scores in the one off test between Ireland and England.
As I type, England are 7/44 or 44/7 as they say.
Perhaps we are not so bad after all.!!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 24 2019, 06:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Despite continued reports of its iminent demise, Coal just will not die.
From Rueters

QUOTE
SANHE, China (Reuters) - China Energy Group, the country’s biggest power generator, will add more than 6 gigawatts (GW) of new ultra-low emission coal-fired capacity this year as it bids to meet growing electricity demand, a senior official with the firm said on Thursday.

The company also expected to build another 5 GW of low-emission capacity next year, Xiao Jianying, the head of the state-run firm’s coal-fired power department, told Reuters.

“China still has quite a big demand for electricity. The government now supports regions with poor wind and solar resources to use coal-fired power ... it’s a more practical measure, as gas is still too expensive,” said Xiao.

China Energy operated coal-fired plants with a total capacity of 175 GW at the end of 2018, 77.4% of its total capacity and about 10% of the entire country’s capacity.

Xiao said the company would gradually shut down small and polluting coal-fired power units and replace them with efficient ones, noting that total capacity would continue to increase but at a slower rate of growth.

The firm is also planning to launch another carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in northwest China next year as part of its efforts to reduce the environmental impact of using coal, company officials said. It already runs a CCS plant at its coal-to-oil facility in Erdos in Inner Mongolia.

China Energy also has ambitions to export more of its low emission coal-fired power technology. Officials said the company planned more investments in Indonesia, and was also studying proposals to build a coal-fired plant in Greece.

China uses ultra-low emissions technology at about 80% of its total coal-fired capacity. The technology cuts smog particles down to a minimum, but does little to curb climate-warming carbon emissions.



As is to be expected, China will pretend to follow the Co2 reduction meme, until it starts to impact on its economy.

Where oh where is Bob brown and his cavalcade. Why are they not marching on the Chinese embassy!.

mick the cynic.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 19 2019, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

IGO hit a 52 week high today. Nickel Demand driving it.
Looking for a bit of breather soon.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 19 2019, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

QUOTE
.... how rising industrial demand has stoked a potential revival of the price of silver, which is currently reaching its 10-year low


It seems to have been largely forgotten that Silver, although often viewed as purely precious metal, is also an industrial commodity.
Unlike Gold, which is largely a storage of value, silver gets consumed.
Most people will have associated silver with photography, which with the advent of the digital age, has declined rapidly.
However, it is widely used in electronics, being a good conductor of both electricity and heat, cheaper than gold.
It is used in cars to make rear demister heaters, high current switches and in the etching of printed circuit boards.
One of the fastest growing uses is in the production of photovoltaic cells used in electricity generation.
It is of particular use in the medical field. Being acutely resistance to bacteria, its used in coating med equipment, in silver infused wound dressings etc.
Your top of the line industrial dish washer is likely to be silver lined.
So what this means is that over time, silver gets consumed.
Yes some of it is recovered and recycled, but nowhere near as often as it used to in the film industry.
And to top it off, overnight silver powered through the 16 handle on its way to 17.
Ya hoo!!

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 18 2019, 03:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

SVL up 20% today.
Took half off the table.
Too good a profit to pass up.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 18 2019, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Gold back on the upward march.
The paper derivative players have been beaten in this round.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 18 2019, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The gold to Silver ratio is a bit like the oil to gold ratio.
It has wavered between highs and lows over time, but like the oil,gold ratio is an artificial construct that has no intrinsic validity.
The relationship is purely mathematical.
However, it has still been a good period for Silver. Nudging 16 at the moment.
I expect it to go higher, but may have a breather first.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 12 2019, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Pretty ordinary performance.
Cmon the kiwis!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 11 2019, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Someone/something having another go.
Up 20% today.
Already had a please explain from headmaster, likely to get another one.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 11 2019, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Half ofme wishes the poms beat us in the semi and then the kiwis knock em off in the final.
Then both countries would have lots to celebrate.
India replacing the saffers as chokers.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 10 2019, 06:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, while interest rates are at spectacular lows, those self funded retirees are pretty much forced out of cash and into something else, the sharemarket is one such beast.
Property is quite illiquid, shares are (mostly) not.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 8 2019, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Perhaps mrs stark could join as well.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

S32 is one of "four beaten up stocks" that NAB share trade group see as recovery stocks.


QUOTE
Market capitalisation: $15.9 billion
12-month total return: –6.8%
FY20 projected yield: 4.4%, fully franked
Analysts’ consensus price target: $3.84 (Thomson Reuters), $3.75 (FN Arena)
South 32 was spun out of BHP in 2015 as a result of the parent company deciding to focus on its four commodity “pillars” of iron ore, oil, copper, and coal. The commodities outside this core portfolio (mainly aluminium, manganese, nickel, silver and lead) were spun off into South32, which generates about two-thirds of its earnings from aluminium (including alumina) and manganese. South 32 is also involved in coking (steelmaking) coal in Australia (Illawarra) and thermal (electricity) coal in South Africa, but the latter business is up for sale.

Being a diversified miner, it is rare that all commodities in the portfolio are going well, and the March quarterly production report disappointed: S32 cut FY19 production guidance by 4-5% for alumina and 6% for thermal coal. On the plus side, the manganese assets are performing strongly – and the company’s silver exposure is also punching above its weight.

Analysts expect S32 to show earnings per share (EPS) falls in FY19 and FY20 (the company reports in US$), but the fall from above $4.20 in October to current levels around $3.20 has opened up value that retail investors appear to be picking up on, with the added attraction of a prospective dividend yield in the range of 4.4%–4.6%, fully franked.


It is a producer, it sells stuff, and may even make a profit.
It has a yield three times what the bank is offering on deposits.
I am in, based mainly on its silver potential.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

There are plenty of producers of silver, but of them have it as a byproduct from other minerals.
The likes of glencore, BHP and South32 are all producers, but the silver part is dwarfed by Iron ore, and other metals that they mine.
Hence, there is unlikley to much leverage.
South 32 own the cannington mine, which is the biggest silver mine in OZ.
New century mines is reopening theold Century mine, but I suspect mainly for the Zinc.
IGO and SLR (both of which I hold) also produce silver as a byproduct.
Of those not yet producing,
SVL (which I hold), is one that is a pure silver explorer and has one of the larger undeveloped deposits in OZ.
Others such as ARD, IVR , MRP and PNX all have undeveloped mines or mineral assets that they are exploring.
There is also the silver ETF, ETPMAG listed on the ASX.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Not everything about the OZ economy is all bad.

Australia is still producing trade supluses ( orshould that be surpli).

AUSTRALIAN
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), it surged to $4.8 billion after seasonal adjustments, coming in well ahead of the $3.7 billion level expected by economists.

January’s surplus — previously reported at $4.55 billion — was revised down slightly to show a smaller surplus of $4.35 billion.
From early 2014 thru to late 2016 the trade balance was in deficit.
Since then, there has only been two months in which it went negative.


QUOTE
Surging commodity prices and a weaker Australian dollar helped to lift Australia’s trade surplus to a record $5.745 billion in May, bringing closer the country’s first current account surplus since the 1970s.

The May result compared with a surplus of $4.820 billion in April, and was driven by a 13 per cent rise in prices of commodities such as iron ore, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. The value of exports rose by 4 per cent, while imports rose by 1 per cent.

Prices for Australia’s biggest exports have surged over recent months, with iron ore trading at its highest levels in 5 years as a result of global supply disruptions.


The Australian dollar has also declined this year as the Reserve Bank of Australia moved to cut official interest rates for the first time since 2016.


Exports fell, mainly due to the fall in gold exports, but Given that imports fell even more, JP Morgan describes the Australian economy as " Unequivocally weak"
As the exports are smaller, the trade surplus is not likely to increase GP for the June quarter.
Some people are so hard to please.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

We will be the ones in the ranger dragging a Dirty Harry.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

From KITCO

QUOTE
Silver’s demand is picking up with the metal seeing the largest daily ETF inflow over the past year, says BMO Global Commodities Research. “While gold ETF flows have hit the headlines over the past month, over the past week silver has seen a larger net positive change. In particular, yesterday saw the largest single daily inflow over the past year at 5.55m oz,” writes BMO Capital Markets managing director of commodities research Colin Hamilton. This marked fifth consecutive day of gains for silver. “With gold having priced in potential rate cuts extremely quickly, we view silver as the catch-up trade at present, particularly if retail investors help to lift bar and coin demand,” Hamilton says.
Gold and silver prices will remain supported for the rest of the year as risk aversion dominates the markets, according to commodity economists at Capital Economics. Looser monetary policies worldwide and slower economic growth are positive for precious metals prices. “Dovish shifts of stance by major central banks and a more downbeat outlook for global growth prompted inflows into safe-haven assets last month. We think that rising investor risk aversion will buttress gold and silver prices through the remainder of this year,” write economists. Capital Economics sees silver rising to $16 an ounce by the end of this year on stronger demand. “Coin sales have already risen so far in 2019, and should continue to benefit from the rising appetite for safe havens. As such, we expect the gold/silver price ratio to fall this year,” they say.


Silver seems to be the perennial bridesmaid in the PM markets.
Always seems to be just about ready for a breakout.
Maybe this time??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

So how will I know its you when sitting around the happy drinks at the free camp spot on the Fletcher river???
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 4 2019, 08:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The small number of breakable parts is interesting. But lloking at the video and seeing the chasis and wheels being an integral part that could easily be removed from the body on top makes for an interesting servicing regime.
You drive in, they disconnect the body from the chassis, replace it with a another chassis thats been seriviced, recharged etc, and away you go.
I always expected that that is how they would do mass recharges of electric veihcles, by changing out the entire battery pack.
That way they could use lots of the spare renewable energy thats produced.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 4 2019, 08:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

i have just put a deposit on an off road van. I swore I would never join the grey nomads, but that went by the wayside,
My Ford ranger will happily tow this van, so there is no urgency to upgrade now.
Having seen lots of Oz from the sky, now its time to get up close and personal.
One of the big talking points within the caravan circles is just how much solar power/battery storage you need to live off grid out in the bush.
Those installing Lithium batteries are surprised at how much lighter they are and how much more power you can really draw from them.
The general consensus is that. 100 amp hour Lithium battery is equivalent to a 200 amp hour AGM battery and about 25% of the weight.
Panels that produce 250 watts are the norm now.
Trouble is, we need panels that produce in the kwatt range to be able effectively recharge an all electric vehicle when you are camped out on the Gibb River Road.
especially if you are towing 2.5 tonnes of caravan/camper trailer.
Maybe the next step will be fuel cells to provide the electricity generation.
But his vehicle is by far the most advanced off roader, and sets the standard.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 3 2019, 06:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=QMfxJEfb4lw

May have to put off upgrading my 4WD until this beast gets on the market.
Electric vehicles will one day become the norm.
Vehicles like this are part of the transformation.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 11:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, that was short lived. Looks like someone was trying to push up the price.
Back down below last weeks closing price.
Somebody would have done well.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Up 17% this morning. Most other goldies stagnant.
Somethings up.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 07:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

QUOTE
- therein lies the problem. Retracement


I need retracements to buy back in, hopefully after selling at a reasonable profit.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 04:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Silver following gold in the PM reallignment.
The move from low 14's to 16 petered out in Feb this year, and fell back to low 14's.
Up to 15.20 or about 22.00 in Aud terms. Hasnt been there since late 2016.
Next target is 27.11 from July 2016,
Be nice if it could reach the heady days of mid 2011 when it touched over $40.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 04:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

QUOTE
This year gold has past thru 1800 mark which we had only seen twice before in 2011 and 2016.
Gold sitting on 1950, and smoothly approaching the 2000 mark.

Well, it broke into that 2k territory today. 2004 as I type.
The AUD has increased against the greenback, tempering some of the gains. But gold is rising regardless of the currency it is measured in.
Always a nice place to be.

But it won't last long according to the experts.
FROM ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Renewed hope for another Australian gold rush might be good for those who happen to strike it rich — but investors say it is also a sign of global uncertainty.

Key points:
Australia exported the most gold in its history last year
Demand is believed to be driven by global uncertainty
Central banks bought more gold last year than they have since the 1970s
The latest ABS data shows mining companies are spending more than ever looking for the rare commodity across Australia, with almost half a billion dollars spent between October and March.

Last year, Australia also exported the most gold in its history at 317 tonnes, maintaining its status as the second biggest producer of the element.

Western Australia's goldfields are leading the charge, however there has also been increased prospecting in the Northern Territory, where $14m was spent on gold exploration last quarter.

Warren Pearce, the chief executive of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, says exploration in both WA and the NT has "led to the recovery of the industry" back to 2012 levels.

"We have a lot of confidence that the future of the gold industry is very bright," he said.

What's behind this renewed confidence?
Mr Pearce said there is a simple reason — Australian gold prices have been steadily rising.

Today, they reached an all-time high of $2,000 an ounce.

But what is driving that might not be all rosy.

"It's perhaps an unfortunate positive that gold prices tend to rise when things aren't going well in the rest of the economy," Mr Pearce said.

That is because gold is typically seen as a safer option.

Truck emerges from underground gold mine.
PHOTO: Gold exploration is at a high in Western Australia. (ABC Goldfields-Esperance: Jarrod Lucas)
Unlike bonds or stocks, it is seen as a tangible commodity that will not lose its inherent value if markets crash.

Mr Pearce speculated that US-China tensions and even Brexit could be some sources of global uncertainty driving investors towards gold at the moment.

David Baker from Australian firm Baker Steele Capital — which runs a global gold fund — agrees there could be many sources of instability driving a push back to gold.

"I think there's a feeling that there's more risks in the world," Mr Baker says.

"There's more challenges. We're seeing trade wars and currency wars."

Central banks buying up gold
Last year, the world's central banks bought up 650 tonnes of gold, their highest amount since the 1970s.

"Central banks see gold as a hedge against uncertainty in the world," Mr Baker said.

Central Banks buying up in high numbers include Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey, India and Poland.

"These countries are very dependent on the US dollar for trade and settling accounts," Mr Baker says.

"What they're seeing is the US is quick to put sanctions on countries, so the feeling is you have a bit more gold in the bank, so you're more independent from the US."

Yet, like many historical moves back towards gold, Mr Baker said it was not easy to pinpoint the exact logic driving investors.

He warned the industry not to get too excited by the renewed optimism of Australian gold hunters.

"Gold is a very rare commodity and it takes a lot of time and expertise to find it," he said.

"That's why it's a precious metal.

"Australians are doing all they can and being reasonably successful but it's not an easy game."

Industry analyst firm IBISWorld echoed these sentiments, and said a lack of new gold deposit discoveries in the past decade and several mines forecast to close by 2025 presented a challenge for the sector.

The firm forecasts Australia's production of gold will fall to 255 tonnes by 2023, pushing it down to be the world's fourth largest producer.

The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies' Mr Pearce said he expected new gold deposits to be discovered in the next 18 months as exploration progresses.


One assumes that if a number of gold mines do close, then the price goes up as supply decreases.


Obviously, if the price of gold goes up, three things may happen:

1.Gold deposits that were once considered uneconomic can become attractive.
2. Exploration for gold becomes more attractive.
3. Reprocessing leach heaps and old tailings becomes economical.

Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 02:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

It can be dissapointing (to put it mildly).
But not today.
EVN up 6%.
Sbm up 8%
RMS up 12%
SLR up 5%.
Even the silver dog SVL up 10%.
PRX only one not performing, only up 1%.
Good day for me.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 01:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

Well, it didn’t take long to recover. Up 12% today.
A cynic might suggest it was just a shake out exercise..
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 11:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

I reckon JPM only picked those stocks cos they got a whole bunch at cheap prices and want to offload them.
Wouldn't trust the bastards as far as I could kick em.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 10:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

A piece in todays OZ business section has an interview with RMS head man Mark Zeptner.
He said that the failures of Gascoyne Resource and Coolgardie Minerals as well as massive slug on Dacian gold will make it very difficult for snaller end of Australian Gold sector to get funding for mine development.
However, the big end of town with good assets, solid management, aad good mine plans have no problems with getting funding.
He said that their five year mining plan was essentially self funded, and planned to deliver dividends in near term.
When asked if RMS were interested in acian, he talked the takeover idea down.

I guess the increased gold price might cause some of the minnows to be attractive, but it would have to be a pretty good increase.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 08:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr--GVIoluU
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 04:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

looks like SLR and RMS are swapping places..
RMS being sold down from its 95 cent high to below 70 today, and SLR smashing through the dollar mark.
Love this rotation, another way to make a buck..
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 03:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973


This year gold has past thru 1800 mark which we had only seen twice before in 2011 and 2016.
Gold sitting on 1950, and smoothly approaching the 2000 mark.
The rallys in previous years lasted multiple years, so this one may have a little while to go.




Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 11:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

AAARRGGGHHHHH! Bloody economists strike again!

FROM ABC NEWS

QUOTE
]Economists say the policy of large-scale money printing by the Reserve Bank is now on the table, and it needs to be discussed more openly.

Key points:
Should the Reserve Bank begin large scale money printing, it could lead to billions being pumped into the economy
It would also have the effect of further lowering interest rates
Many view it as a "last resort" policy, but some experts suggest it should be strongly considered
"The Reserve Bank needs to start preparing the public," United States Studies Centre program director Stephen Kirchner said.

The Sydney University-based centre has been studying the use of money printing in the US, and argues Australia could benefit from the lessons it learned.

The Reserve Bank itself has mentioned the possibility of quantitative easing as an option if cutting interest rates no longer has the desired effects of boosting inflation and economic growth.

So, what is "quantitative easing", or money printing as it is colloquially dubbed?

Like any other business, the Reserve Bank has assets it lists on its balance sheet, including cash.

If it were to engage in quantitative easing it would spend that cash by buying bonds from the Government or the corporate sector, effectively flooding the economy with billions of dollars of extra money.

It would also have the effect of further lowering interest rates.

That is because large scale-bond purchases drive up the price of bonds and lower their yield (or interest rate).

Those lower interest rates filter through to other parts of the economy and can drive down the cost of business loans and mortgages.

Dr Kirchner wants to get the word out that quantitative easing is not a "last resort" policy, as many view it, and it could be the shot in the arm the Australian economy needs.

"There's nothing exceptional or unusual about quantitative easing," Dr Kirchner said.

"It's really just a change in the operating instrument for monetary policy from the official cash rate to outright purchases of assets."


Ha, there's noting exceptional or unusual about qualitative easing.
But that hardly makes it a good idea.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

The Life of mine announcement ' seem all that bad, but RMS has dropped to 74..
Kinda hoping it will drop below the 73 cents mark which was where I sold half my stake last time.
Enjoyed the healthy profit, but if I had held on till 90 cents would have been spectatcular profit.
Hindsight, aint it great??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 15 2019, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,973

QUOTE
The interest rate is 5.25 per cent. There are to be no establishment fees but there may be legal fees. Borrowings will be advanced in the form of fortnightly income payments and the payments will not count as assessable income for determining age pension entitlements. The debt is usually recovered when the property is sold, or from the borrower's estate once the home owner dies.


Interest rates set by the RBA at 1.25%, so the 5.25% set by this govt scheme seems a bit rich.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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