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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: May 14 2021, 08:41 AM
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After yesterday, a handful of NDX indicators have reached extreme lows, which suggests a near term Tech-led bounce attempt could be imminent.

Only 14% of the NDX components are trading above their 20 Day MAs. It last got close to 10% threshold near the March’21 lows.

Over 40% of NDX stocks are trading BELOW their respective Lower Bollinger Bands, too. That’s the highest % since March, 2020. It has gotten worse than this over the last few years at times, but not often.

The NDX, itself, is oversold vs. its Bollinger Bands, as depicted by the %B indicator. A short-term bounce resulted after each prior occurrence over the last three years. Again, during the most intense corrections/crashes of 2018 and 2020, this led to more pain before THE low was etched.

The NDX’s 14-Day RSI dropped to 34, which was the indicator’s low from March 5th, too. The other sell off over the last 12 months were never strong enough to push the indicator UNDER 30.

The NDX/SPX ratio now is oversold again for the first time since the March’21 lows. Back then, the indicator got down to 20 – the lowest since 1990

The NDX’s 7.8% drawdown, is NOT extreme compared to recent pullbacks. Thus, we’ll have to see how traders treat the next mean reverting move, whether it happens today or not.
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so judge by last night's action, Daq had rebound. whether it is dead cat, or something meaningful have to see a good follow on action.

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Regarding, the SPX, the bearish target (4,010) will remain in play as long as the breakdown zone isn’t violated. Let’s recall that we’ve only seen ONE successful bearish pattern play out since July, 2020.

The pullback finally has shaken the SPX loose from the top of its trading channel. The drop has put it back in the middle of the pattern. In other words, the damage has been contained.

The drawdown is over 4%, which now is more in line with recent drops.
Using the March lows as the starting point, the SPX got close to the 38.2% retracement yesterday. and, of course, its 50 Day MA.

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SPX had good rebound as well , this index looks a lot stronger than others!!

for asx200

i'd use same strategy as yesterday .


 
early birds
post Posted: May 13 2021, 09:24 AM
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US CPI jumped 4.2% YoY ahead of the 3.6% forecast. Stocks drop as investors anticipate an earlier move by the Fed.

Rising inflation concerns have been stalking the market all week. Today’s CPI data confirmed the markets’ fear that inflation is roaring higher.

US CPI for April came in at 4.2%, well ahead of the 3.6% forecast and up from 2.6% in March. On a monthly basis inflation surged 0.8% versus 0.2% expected and up from 0.6% last month.

Core inflation also shot higher 3% up from 1.6% in March.

The fact that the US Dollar surged and tech look set to take a hit suggests the market it pricing in a sooner move by the Fed to tighten policy. There is still another inflation print due before the Fed trade decision in June, and another jobs report.

However given surging inflation and commodity price the Fed may have to reconsider how transitory it believes inflation will be.

It’s only Wednesday and the tech heavy Nasdaq will want to be drawing a line under this week. After diving -2.5% at the start of the week, the Nadsaq futures are down a further 1.2% today after the inflation data, taking the hardest hit.

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now most of central banks get what they wished for----INFLATION.
but the problem is ----when the beast coming in , it will be like wild fire storm ---fast furious, as all of them pumped in wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much paper cash into eco..

there is a english phrase, "be careful what you wish for"" is that right triage???

asx200 keep eye on 7000 the key level and stops will be at 6988ish if one wants to go long for the index.
by the way WBC NAB will be x--divy today!!



 
early birds
post Posted: May 12 2021, 11:00 AM
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i had few info, but just too busy with other things.

stay out of market if one can sit on the sideline. if still want to investing , might look at commodity related stocks!!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 11 2021, 09:46 AM
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Ominous Signs on the Nasdaq 100
As per usual, it was technology and growth stocks which were the worst hit under the ‘inflationary fears’ scenario. The Nasdaq 100 was down -2.6% and sent several worrying signals to bulls. Closing beneath its 50-day eMA, yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle had no upper or lower wick (meaning it opened at the high and closed at the low of the day) and formed part of a three-bar bearish reversal formation (Evening Star Reversal). Given it now forms part of a lower high, the bias remains bearish beneath 13,815.

The Russell 2000 growth index fell -3.46% and the S&P 500 fell from its record high and closed on its 10-day eMA. The Dow Jones hit (and traded slightly beyond) our 35,000 target before giving back gains to close slightly lower, forming a bearish pinbar and warning of exhaustion at its record high.

European equities were mostly flat, with the Euro STOXX 600 index rising just 0.03%. The DAX was also flat yet held above Friday’s low, so the bullish bias outlined in yesterday’s video remains intact.

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still playing that "sell in May" card!! ohmy.gif


asx200 future looked grim after it just closed at all time high!! really thought it will keeps march higher , blush.gif

stay put for today as picture gets really confused!!!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 10 2021, 08:50 AM
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It was a mixed picture on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closing to at a record high, the Russel 2000 closing flat for the week yet finding support above its 10-week eMA for a fifth consecutive week, and the Nasdaq 100 closing at a four week low yet above its 10-week eMA.

The ASX 200 is making hard work of breaking above 7,100. Given May is usually a bearish month for the index, and that bulls are struggling to take full control, we are mindful of its potential to roll over the coming week/s. Yet defining a bearish entry point is not easy either, with so many overlapping candles at these highs. That said, we would consider a daily close beneath 6993 as a sign that the market has topped, and a daily close above 7100 a sign that perhaps this bull trend still has legs.

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after "shocking" US NFP [ not shock to me] things have little change
not giving up asx200 to march all time high yet!!



 
early birds
post Posted: May 6 2021, 09:14 AM
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, hopes are high heading into this week’s NFP Report, with potential to see over 1,000,000 net new jobs for the first time in eight months as the country gradually opens up amidst widespread vaccine distribution. In addition to the strong headline jobs reading, economists are also looking for the unemployment rate to tick down to 5.8% and average hourly earnings to come in flat month-over-month:

NFP forecast

As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report:

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Employment component printed at 58.8, up a point and a half from last month’s 57.2 reading.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment component printed at 55.1, down more than 4% from last month’s 59.6 reading.
The ADP Employment report came in at 742K net new jobs, an improvement over last month’s upwardly-revised 565K reading, though still below the 872K reading expected.
Finally, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to 612K, down sharply from 719k last month.

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a gyration for SPX tonight


asx200 going to pop up again at our cash market again?? unsure.gif



 


early birds
post Posted: May 5 2021, 11:43 AM
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finally asx200 hit through 7100,
now it aim at all time high 7220ish, but i can't see it clearer as market start to prepare for the rate rise sooner.

have to just trade the way . my bet is asx200 gonna over come all time high!! it's just me ---biased!! tongue.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 30 2021, 09:09 AM
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ASX 200 Market Internals:
We’re expecting a soft open looking at futures markets. Although the ASX 200 found resistance at the April high anyway, so the bias is bearish early on in the session. However, PMI data is released for Japan, China and Australia over the next few hours, so we could be in for some volatility around current levels to be on for a break either way, which makes 7094 – 7100 a pivotal zone today (and potentially next week).
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still bullish like me.! lmaosmiley.gif

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SPX had scary start, but it did well to rallied back above 4200----i guess it is end of the month thing.



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 29 2021, 10:16 AM
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The Fed left policy unchanged as widely expected, although added that inflation has risen due to “transitory factors” such as the “basing effect”. This basically means the fed will continue to look past inflation overshoots, so there will be no change of policy.

The S&P 500 printed a new intraday record high but failed to hold onto earlier gains, closing the day with a bearish Rikshaw Man Doji pattern (on a closing basis, the index has effectively closed flat for the past three days). The Nasdaq 100 fell to a four-day low but found support at its 10-day eMA. The Dow Jones fell to a three-day low but ultimately remains rangebound between 33,678 – 34,256. Its hard to build a bear case, there is also a hesitancy to break higher imminently on Wall Street.

Yesterday’s weak CPI print helped send the ASX 200 to a two-day high, and Tuesday’s bullish hammer reaffirmed support at 7,000 which suggests a swing low is in place. So, whilst our bias remains bullish above 7,000, we need to see a break above 7,100 to confirm trend resumption.

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ASX200 will the price over come 7100 or just make a double top??? unsure.gif
i for one think it will overcome 7100 and hit all time high within a week!! it's just me!! lmaosmiley.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 28 2021, 10:19 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 28 2021, 10:16 AM

The ASX 200 printed a large bearish pinbar last week, and prices have remained soft for the past three sessions. Whilst there was a mild recovery yesterday, they remain beneath 7036 resistance which could prove to ab a pivotal level this session.
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DYOR.

 
 


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