Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

20 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Baltic Dry Index
nipper
post Posted: Mar 25 2021, 11:36 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 8,937
Thanks: 2740


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 25 2021, 11:27 AM

Capesize ships are the largest dry cargo ships. They are too large to transit the Suez Canal (Suezmax limits) or Panama Canal (Neopanamax limits), and so have to pass either the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn to traverse between oceans.

When the Suez Canal was deepened in 2009, it became possible for some capesize ships to transit the canal and so changed categoriies

Ships in this class are bulk carriers, usually transporting coal, ore and other commodity raw materials. The term capesize is not applied to tankers. The average size of a capesize bulker is around 156,000 DWT, although larger ships (normally dedicated to ore transportation) have been built, up to 400,000 DWT. The large dimensions and deep drafts of such vessels mean that only the largest deep-water terminals can accommodate them.

Subcategories of capesize vessels include very large ore carriers (VLOC) and very large bulk carriers (VLBC) of above 200,000 DWT. These vessels are mainly designed to carry iron ore.

......

so, the one blocking Suez, Ever Given is 400 metres long and 59 metres wide, and at 224,000 DWT must be right on the limit. ...Though container vessels would have a different weight distribution than bulk carriers



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 25 2021, 11:27 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 8,937
Thanks: 2740


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 8 2021, 02:23 PM

and more chaos ..... and pressure on pricings
QUOTE
Egyptian tug boats backed by an international team of salvage experts are racing against the tides to reopen the Suez Canal after one of the world's largest container ships was blown off course and blocked the waterway.

The owner and insurers of the 224,000 tonne Ever Given face claims totalling millions of dollars even if the ship is refloated quickly, industry sources said. The value of goods held up by the blockage will build up by $US9.5 billion ($12.5 billion) a day, according to Lloyd's List.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-24/ship...given/100025314

Vessel Tracker shows some interesting traffic jams.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 8 2021, 02:23 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 13,506
Thanks: 1566


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/business...l-shipping.html

Ive Never Seen Anything Like This: Chaos Strikes Global Shipping





Everybody wants everything, said Akhil Nair, vice president of global carrier management at SEKO Logistics in Hong Kong. The infrastructure cant keep up.

====================

might look at these sectors, for the catch up!!?? unsure.gif



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 7 2021, 09:17 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,304
Thanks: 1168


Today, as I look at the Chart, the BDI is sitting at 1829, an enormous 450% increase since its lows around 393 back in March 2020.
This is reflected in the market for container ships. Costs for an average size 6800 container ship have gone from less than USD15,000 back in April 2020 to nearly USD38,000 per day this week.
From Zero Hedge
QUOTE
No one predicted that the global shipping container industry would be on fire in the last couple of quarters, considering China's robust economic rebound following the virus-induced downturn. Container rates have soared since last spring as there are few signs of immediate cooling.

Container shipowners are capitalizing on the red hot ocean freight market by flipping older ships. Monaco-based International Maritime Enterprises sold its container ship Crete I for $46 million, more than four times its 2016 value ($11 million), according to Bloomberg, citing a new industry report via TradeWinds. The market for second-hand ships is soaring as the sale of new vessels has sunk in the last couple of years. A typical container ship takes more than one year to build - so boosting new ship supply cannot be readily done - hence why demand increase and value explosions are being observed on the secondary markets.

Clarkson Research Services Ltd. said a 10-year-old container ship with the capacity to haul 6,600 steel boxes fetches about $41 million today - that's a considerable jump from its $9.5 million value back in 2016.
"The recent price increases have happened far more quickly than previous sales and purchase cycles," said Stephen Gordon, managing director at Clarkson Research. "Recent prices trends for 10-year-old vessels have more than doubled in less than six months, whereas in 2016-17 and 2004-2005 it took nearly 18 months for similar percentage price increases."

"February was the second-highest activity on record for transactions measured in ship container capacity," Gordon said.

Time charter rates for a 6,800-box container ship have erupted.
Container shipping data from Freightos and Harper Petersen & Co show container rates have been surging since April-June of 2020.Demand for freight containers and the heavy flows from China to the US East/West Coast has resulted in a shipping container shortage in Asia.

In September, we first noted that demand for ocean freight out of China was "leading to equipment shortages in Asia."

"The surge in volumes is leading to equipment shortages in Asia. Some shippers are paying premiums on top of spiking rates to guarantee containers and space. The imbalance is also putting pressure on overwhelmed US ports and importers to process and return empty containers quickly."

While the buying frenzy for second-hand container ships continues - we suspect this trend will last until the global economic rebound stalls - with China's credit impulse already peaking - this could be in the second half of this year.


The costs of the container shipping is adding to the cost of renting the containers themselves, as a huge shortage of containers as well as long container turn around times are affecting movements.
From Container news
QUOTE
Equipment shortages in Chinese ports, particularly Qingdao, Lianyungang, Ningbo and Shanghai have intensified over the last week with delays to vessels increasing the confusion and container shortages.

According to the Container xChange, US ports on the west coast, and further east in Chicago in particular, have struggled to cope with a surge in imports, putting West Coast facilities under immense pressure.

Container xChange reports, The many containers arriving at the ports must be transported to terminals and warehouses. For that, they need chassis. Chassis that many places are now in shortage, creating congestion issues. Containers stuck at the ports also mean that many operations are put to a halt. Something, that also influences the container availability.

US West Coast port congestion was confirmed by US transport consultant Jon Monroe, who said, US importers and trucking companies struggle to work with some of the terminals, especially in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

I understand that this week terminal pick-ups were more problematic as labour took time off on election day. Chassis are still an issue. Most decent sized trucking companies are trying to utilise street turns, he added.

This will have to start flowing thru to the cost of goods soon, which of course will add a bit of curry to the inflation rockets.
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 11 2020, 10:32 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 8,937
Thanks: 2740


In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 27 2020, 07:43 PM

QUOTE
"We think (container) trade is down 30 to 40 per cent, particularly on imports. The logistics industry, particularly with the international trade, is a really good indicator of economic activity and this will have an impact, no doubt, on the Australian economy. That's just evident from the lack of flow-of-trade from China,"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-10/coro...ection=business

QUOTE
.....some TWU members are reporting as much as an 80 per cent drop in containers arriving from China in some ports, with industries linked to the volume of trade feeling the impact.
"Transport operators have little choice but to cut workers' hours or ask them to use up their annual leave," the union's national secretary, Michael Kaine, said in a statement. "Workers are understandably concerned for their job security, with many casual workers left struggling to pay the bills. "Companies are operating on such tight margins that when work becomes unavailable through no fault of the operator or workforce, their ability to pay workers becomes reliant on government bail-outs."




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 27 2020, 07:43 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,304
Thanks: 1168


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 27 2020, 06:24 PM

And to top it off, new car sales have plummeted in USA, China, and here in OZ.
us Here

AUS HERE

and in ChinaHERE
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 


early birds
post Posted: Feb 27 2020, 06:24 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 13,506
Thanks: 1566


In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 27 2020, 06:09 PM

the low fuel price might save them go to bust.
really tough time for the logistic sector. so sad for them.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 27 2020, 06:09 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,304
Thanks: 1168


The BDI has recovered a little since the last post.
However, that does not mean that the freight industry is not in deep trouble.
FromWC

QUOTE
It Gets Surprisingly Ugly: US Freight Shipments Plunge 9.4%, Steepest since 2009
But the coronavirus impact has not been felt yet; that will come later.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Shipment volume in the US by truck, rail, air, and barge plunged 9.4% in January 2020 compared to the already weak January a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. It was the 14th month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the steepest since October 2009, during the Financial Crisis:
he Cass Freight Index tracks shipment volume of consumer goods and industrial products and supplies by all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – but it does not track bulk commodities, such as grains or coal.

In December, when the index had plunged 7.4% year-over-year, the steepest drop since November 2009, the calendar got blamed because Christmas fell on a Wednesday, as it does regularly. In January, the year-over-year drop of 9.4% was even worse, from an even weaker month a year earlier, and this time, there is no calendar to blame.
December was the month when Celadon Group, with about 3,000 drivers and about 2,700 tractors, shut down — the largest truckload carrier ever to file for bankruptcy in US history, which came on top of hundreds of mostly smaller trucking companies that had also shut down in 2019.

January was the month when barge operator American Commercial Lines, with 3,500 barges mostly on the Mississippi River, ran aground, so to speak. After having worked out a deal with its lenders in January, it announced at the beginning of February that it would file for a “prepackaged” bankruptcy.

January was also the month when two of the largest US railroads – CSX and Union Pacific – reported terrible results, including dropping revenues and massive layoffs on broad-based weakness in the transportation business.

Rail traffic in January offered no respite from the miserable year 2019: Carloads dropped 5.9% compared to January last year; and containers and trailers fell 5.4%, according to the Association of American Railroads, “reflecting continued softness in manufacturing and global economic weakness made worse by trade uncertainties.”

The 9.4% January plunge in the Cass Freight Index for shipments pushed it below the January 2018 level and near the January 2017 level. The stacked chart – each year is a colored line – shows the large seasonality of the freight business. January is always a low point. But this January, represented by the big red square near the left bottom of the chart, was particularly weak. The top black line represents historic boom-year 2018. The green line represents down-year 2019, which deteriorated relative to other years as the year progressed:



Freight expenditures drop below January 2018.
This data is not based on sentiment surveys but on actual freight invoices. Cass derives this data from freight invoices paid on behalf of its clients ($28 billion in freight bills in 2018), representing a large sample of the actual shipments and payments in the US by numerous companies across many sectors.

In January, the Cass index for expenditures – reflecting how much shippers, such as retailers and manufacturers, spent on transportation costs, including on fuel surcharges – dropped 8% year-over-year, after having dropped 6.2% in December. It was the sixth month in a row of year-over-year declines:


It is only based on US figures, but i can't imagine any other country will be fairing any better.

Mick




--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 27 2020, 05:12 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 8,937
Thanks: 2740


Monitoring the Big Data shipping index will provide a strong signal as to how the coronavirus disruption is being managed.

The index is arguably more reliable than the leading shipping index – the Baltic Dry Index – because the latter is only an index of container shipping costs. That means events unrelated to global demand can cause large changes in shipping prices.

As JP Morgan's Anthony Wong notes, a good example of this is how the temporary supply shock caused by Iran's seizure of a British oil tanker corresponded with a jump in the Baltic Dry Index over July-August 2019, despite trade volumes staying quite flat.

"The main benefit of our Big Data Shipping Index is that we are able to obtain data much earlier than figures from official sources, with initial data coming in with only a one-day lag, compared to at least a week for only a handful of countries that report high-frequency data," Mr Wong said.

QUOTE
The analysts are using the Big Data Shipping Index, created by JPMorgan analyst Anthony Wong, which tracks the worldwide movements of over 50,000 commercial ships, emitting 19,000 radio signals per second.

Mr Wong's data reveals a sharp slowdown in global shipping volumes in February. While global shipping volumes have fallen since the end of 2017, when the US-China trade war escalated, Chinese volumes are still 30 per cent lower than their historical average.

"In cumulative terms, inbound and outbound activity are both running around 30 per cent lower since Lunar New Year, February 7, relative to the historical average," Mr Wong said. "We will look for an upturn in the index as an early signal that the growth shock from the coronavirus has faded."




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 27 2020, 05:12 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 8,937
Thanks: 2740


Monitoring the Big Data shipping index will provide a strong signal as to how the coronavirus disruption is being managed.

The index is arguably more reliable than the leading shipping index – the Baltic Dry Index – because the latter is only an index of container shipping costs. That means events unrelated to global demand can cause large changes in shipping prices.

As JP Morgan's Anthony Wong notes, a good example of this is how the temporary supply shock caused by Iran's seizure of a British oil tanker corresponded with a jump in the Baltic Dry Index over July-August 2019, despite trade volumes staying quite flat.

"The main benefit of our Big Data Shipping Index is that we are able to obtain data much earlier than figures from official sources, with initial data coming in with only a one-day lag, compared to at least a week for only a handful of countries that report high-frequency data," Mr Wong said.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


20 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING