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Foreign Currency, Discussion
early birds
post Posted: May 14 2021, 09:03 AM
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The bounce got a lot of attention, but USD remains in a downtrend… with a large amount of supply above it.

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but there isn't just Fed printing day and night, other central banks all do it. so how do we reserve the purchasing power?????????? unsure.gif

go long stocks, might be the only way!!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 11 2021, 09:48 AM
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The US dollar index (DXY) etched out a fresh low before finding support just above 90.00. Technically it could be due a bounce (however minor) but 90 remains the pivotal level over the coming session/s. Fundamentally there’s little reason to be bullish on the dollar but, technically at least, things are looking stretched down at those lows.
AUD/USD failed to hold onto earlier gains and formed a bearish pinbar which closed back beneath 0.7850 resistance. 0.7800 is the next level for bulls to defend over the near-term.
AUD/NZD saw another failed attempt to break above 1.0800. In yesterday’s report we suggested a daily close above this key level could hint at a bullish breakout, yet the bearish pinbar which closed beneath this key level keeps a break of its bullish trendline (from December’s low) a real possibility.
The Japanese yen caught a bid during a risk-off session on Wall Street, seeing GBP/JPY give bac earlier gains and form a bearish pinbar.

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DYOR !!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 10 2021, 08:55 AM
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The US dollar index printed a bearish engulfing / outside week, suggesting a break below 90.0 could be imminent.

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the chart looks scary as it is, but think it will be hold last support at this stage, worth to keep close eye on it for traders and investors!!



 
early birds
post Posted: May 7 2021, 09:16 AM
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The US Dollar is edging lower despite strong recent data. This is most likely owing to its safe haven status. With the reopening optimism growing, investors are shunning the greenback for riskier currencies. Equally, the Fed’s insistence that policy won’t be tightened soon could also be keeping the greenback depressed.

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Fed sees the danger of USD going a lot lower, it start to jawbone it!! blush.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: May 6 2021, 09:16 AM
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Potential NFP market reaction

The US dollar gave back most of March’s gains through the month of April, with most major currencies gaining 200-300 pips against the world’s reserve currency last month. With the greenback getting off to a better start to the month of May, the NFP report could set the tone for the remainder of the month.

After the sharp selloff in April, the nascent US dollar rally could extend further if we see a strong US jobs report. In that scenario, readers may want to look at USD/JPY as a potential long candidate, with room for the pair to rally back toward previous highs in the mid-110.00s after retracing 38.2% of its Q1 rally last month.

On the other hand, a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report could create a sell opportunity in USD/CAD (pending the simultaneous release of the Canadian jobs report) if it can break below multi-year lows near 1.2250.

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think of AUD/USD might pop up on good reading of NFP as well!!



 
early birds
post Posted: May 5 2021, 08:05 AM
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The US Dollar is rebounding after weakness on Monday following disappointing manufacturing PMI data. The reopening trade is lifting the greenback as investors question the Fed’s ability to keep monetary policy lose in the face of a roaring reopening economy.

AUD/USD is underperforming its peers despite the RBA upwardly revising growth forecasts. There was still no mentioning of tightening monetary policy until 2024.

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it's day oil TA . but seems still valid .



 


early birds
post Posted: Apr 29 2021, 10:18 AM
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The US dollar index (DXY) printed a large bearish engulfing candle after a small, two-day pullback, which strongly suggests the swing high in place at 91.13. Given it closed just beneath 90.63 support yesterday, we remain bearish below yesterday’s high and would be keen to see any small volatility retracements within yesterday’s range to consider fading into, or simply wait for a break of yesterday’s low to assume bearish continuation.


AUD/USD traded to a high of 0.7800 having found support at its 20-day eMA with a bullish hammer on the daily chart.
NZD/USD broke to a new cycle high with a bearish outside day, and a break above 0.7270 swing high (bearish engulfing candle) assumes bullish continuation.


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early birds
post Posted: Apr 27 2021, 09:45 AM
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The US dollar index (DXY) printed a bearish engulfing candle on Friday, perfectly respecting the 91.30 resistance level. Our bias remains bearish below 91.40 and the target is the base of the (broken) trendline at 89.90. However, yesterday produced an indecision candle (Rikshaw Man Doji) above 90.63 support, so perhaps we’re approaching a period of consolidation.

AUD/USD printed a bullish engulfing candle yesterday, strongly suggesting 0.7690 to be a structural swing low. A break above 0.7850 assumes trend continuation.

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07850 for AUD ?? thought it will go little higher than that. unsure.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 23 2021, 10:10 AM
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The US dollar was the strongest major, thanks to a combination of weaker equity prices and better than employment data. US jobless claims fell to a 13-month low of 574k, down from 765k previously, which more than beat the estimated rise to 617k claims.


AUD/USD fell to a six-day low and probed 0.7700 support. NZD/USD fared slightly better with a fall to a four-day low and appears to be the marginally stronger of the two (as seen with a falling AUD/NZD).
AUD/JPY continues to suggest it is topping out on the daily charts. A bearish engulfing candle closed just above the 50-day eMA, but a break beneath 83.00 takes it to fresh lows an bring the 82.50 target into focus (just above the 82.00/30 lows.


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trading them with pure TA .



 
cooderman
post Posted: Apr 21 2021, 12:35 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 21 2021, 10:14 AM

I took a short on AUDUSD, More than one way to skin a cat EB. Divergence also showed on AUDJPY. on 4H.I see your guys would have entered the same short trade on AUDJPY, but for different reasons.Take Profit would be around the 83.180s, or Trail your Stops.

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