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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
apache123
post Posted: Apr 18 2006, 07:26 PM
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Batten down the hatches time is looming.....

If the bell weather BHP's previous chart is any guide, then the post March All Ords correction is not far away.....
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Attached File  BHP.jpg ( 360.64K ) Number of downloads: 5

 




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Buyer beware: Do your own research before investing....
 
filament
post Posted: Apr 16 2006, 11:20 PM
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Look at the stats for all of 2005 and 2006 Jan,Feb to see the clear increase in inflation.

Under 5% and it's controlled ?

A sustained 6%+ and we can start to be cocerned, well worth tracking !


http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflati...n_currentPage=0



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<p align="center"><b><font size="2
" color#0000FF" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">What lies behind us and what lies before us are
small matters compared to what lies within us.
- Ralph Waldo Emerson </font></b><br>
 
kili
post Posted: Apr 16 2006, 10:25 PM
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Don't worry, just remember that when your economy (read USA) or popularity (read Bush) is shaky there is always the option of going to war.. its a great philip for the winner in that it stimulates domestic manufacturing, deflects unpopular issues, showcases military hardware and secures future oil supplies /and enables big oil companies (read USA Chevron etc) to be imbedded in the vanquished territory.:With India and China drawing more and more energy and searching/securing energy exploration JV's with remotely oily countries, the pressure is even greater to monopolise oil territories than when Iraq was targeted '03.

These are just wild thoughts and are not based on any rigerous research. DYOR. weirdsmiley.gif

 
Smartman_plc
post Posted: Apr 16 2006, 10:09 PM
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In reply to: filament on Sunday 16/04/06 07:15pm

It looks to me that the US is doing what Paul Keating had the Reserve Bank of Australia do in the recession we had to have. The US will just keep jacking up interest rates until a massive recession occurs that will cool it's economy (and everyone else's) to reduce the balance of payments and inflation.

If you accept my above hypothesis, the question then is, an investors what do we do to protect ourselves from the effects?



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Cheers,
Smartman
 
filament
post Posted: Apr 16 2006, 07:45 PM
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In reply to: Sandalaphon on Thursday 30/03/06 09:48pm

I'm very concerned that America's inflation may spiral out of control.

With increasing money supply, the US dollar devaluing and if the cost of goods and services increase (from the price of oil increasing and dollar devauing) , here we would have a triple whammy.

What can America do ?

Jack up the interest rates and cause a collapse in the stockmarket?
Increase taxes?

Can the US peg the dollar ?

Any economic minded people out there ?

Thankfully India and China will be taking over as world leaders from America and Europe.

Then we may not depend so much on the US market.

The sooner, the better !!!



--------------------
<p align="center"><b><font size="2
" color#0000FF" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">What lies behind us and what lies before us are
small matters compared to what lies within us.
- Ralph Waldo Emerson </font></b><br>
 
apache123
post Posted: Apr 11 2006, 09:24 AM
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The Gob has spoken about the looming bust....

QUOTE
Booms go bust when you least expect them to
Robert Gottliebsen
April 01, 2006

THE Australian stock market is enjoying the biggest boom we have seen for half a century. It beats the oil boom of the 1950s; the property boom of the early 1960s; the Poseidon boom of the early 1970s; the 1980s entrepreneurs' takeover boom that ended with the 1987 crash; and the dotcom boom of the late 1990s.

But there are lessons in the end of those booms for Australians who have never experienced a crash. Some of the longer-term warning signs are appearing.

Booms occur when there is virtually unlimited cash available for lending and/or equity investment and that cash is ignited into an optimistic buying frenzy by an event or series of dramatic events. Australia has boomed in 2005 and 2006 because we have again enjoyed the combination of a dramatic event and unlimited cash. The dramatic event was a huge rises in mineral prices caused by the Chinese driving their growth via capital works and export industries. Australia has been the best place to invest in that sort of China growth. Added to that, we have seen much better productivity among major companies. The avalanche of money needed to spark a boom came via the superannuation funds and the willingness of banks to lend large sums secured on houses. In addition, there is an amazing $US4 trillion invested in global hedge funds, many of which are fuelling mineral prices by buying on the futures market....


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apache123
post Posted: Apr 8 2006, 04:40 PM
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Stirrings of a tired bull market....

QUOTE
Thursday April 6, 2:25 PM
UPDATE: Booming Australian Job Mkt Stokes Rates Concerns

.....All eyes are now on the release of first quarter inflation data on April 26, which could hold the key for a rate hike in either May or June.

Rising fuel costs could see the Reserve Bank upgrade its forecast for headline inflation. The central bank said in February headline inflation would remain close to 3.0% in 2006.

The Reserve Bank will also publish its next quarterly update on economic and policy setting on May 5. Costello will announce the government's budget on May 9.

Stephen Koukoulas said pressure on the job market will only intensify as unemployment drops below 5.0% in coming months.

"The unemployment rate is likely to break below 5.0% in the months ahead, which would be a surefire way to see wages pressures build at a time when inflation is already near the top end of the RBA's (2%-3%) band," Koukoulas said.

The strength of the economy could prompt analysts to predict that any near-term rate hike might not be just a one-off move by the Reserve Bank.

"Who is going to be the first person to call two more rate hikes from the RBA in the months ahead and a 6.0% cash rate by year end?" he asked.

"Could the economy really be that strong? Maybe."

Koukoulas pointed to the interest rate experience in New Zealand in which increases in the official cash rate were triggered by an overly tight labor market.

"Look what happened in New Zealand when the economy ran out of workers," he said. "Wages surged, inflation jumped and the RBNZ hiked rates to levels that no one imagined."

New Zealand interest rates are the highest in the industrialized world at 7.25%.


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Smartman_plc
post Posted: Apr 1 2006, 02:40 PM
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In reply to: happy2 on Saturday 01/04/06 01:49pm

happy2,

I know that you are only lightening the mood, but for the USA to be exporting problems is highly likely result in them importing poblems too. Countries that are are adversely affected by the US problems are likely to reduce demand for US goods and services thus causing a cycle of decline. sadsmiley02.gif



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Cheers,
Smartman
 
happy2
post Posted: Apr 1 2006, 02:19 PM
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In reply to: zac12 on Friday 31/03/06 10:33am

I suppose exporting problems is better than importing problems.



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Have a good one

Happy 2





"Knowledge is a process of piling up facts; wisdom lies in their simplification".

Caveat Emptor: the above comments are merely opinion, not advice.
 
zac12
post Posted: Mar 31 2006, 09:33 AM
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In reply to: Sandalaphon on Thursday 30/03/06 09:48pm

Trouble is it doesn't just stay with them, it's where it might end up that is the worry. America has a tendency to export its problems. unsure.gif wacko.gif


Zac

 
 


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