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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 2 2019, 09:56 AM
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Last day reporting laggards August 30 2019
September 1, 2019
QUOTE
This list tracks the 348 last day laggards who waited until Friday August 30, 2019 to release their results to the ASX. We're comparing it with what happened 10 years ago in the August 2009 reporting season at the peak of the GFC wipe-out when 275 companies reported on the last day possible.


QUOTE
The worst hour for reporting losses to the @ASX on Friday occurred from 4-5pm when their were 44 losses and just 8 profits. See the full last day laggards list here

http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2019/0...-2150-9231.html



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 1 2019, 05:19 PM
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Fake news Rally?
Attached File  YU7NDgfQ.png ( 64.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


China, U.S. kick off new round of tariffs in trade war

QUOTE
Ben Blanchard, Shivani Singh
BEIJING (Reuters) - China and the United States began imposing additional tariffs on each other’s goods on Sunday, the latest escalation in a bruising trade war, despite signs that talks would resume some time this month.

A new round of tariffs took effect from 0401 GMT, with Beijing’s levy of 5% on U.S. crude marking the first time the fuel has been targeted since the world’s two largest economies started their trade war more than a year ago.

The Trump administration will begin collecting 15% tariffs on more than $125 billion in Chinese imports, including smart speakers, Bluetooth headphones and many types of footwear.

In retaliation, China started to impose additional tariffs on some of the U.S. goods on a $75-billion target list. Beijing did not specify the value of the goods that face higher tariffs from Sunday.

The extra tariffs of 5% and 10% were levied on 1,717 items of a total of 5,078 products originating from the United States. Beijing will start collecting additional tariffs on the rest from Dec. 15.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trad...r-idUSKCN1VM0V9
Attached File  EDI2F1gXUAAWNB_.jpg ( 129.69K ) Number of downloads: 0




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 28 2019, 12:29 PM
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Posts: 6,791
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Construction recession deepens and spreads across all sectors
By business reporter Stephen Letts
Updated 7 minutes ago

QUOTE
Key points:
Construction work has fallen 11pc over the past twelve months and, in terms of value, it has retreated to levels reported at the start of 2017
Home building has fallen for four consecutive quarters to be down 10pc over the year
The "ugly" result is expected to have a material impact on second quarter GDP, slicing around 0.4ppt off growth

The slowdown in Australia's construction industries has intensified, with a far sharper than expected contraction over the second quarter.

In seasonally adjusted terms, overall construction work fell by 3.8 per cent over the three months, well short of the more optimistic, but still weak, market forecast of a 1 per cent decline.

Over the year, construction work has fallen by more than 11 per cent, with the total level of work done down to a level last seen more than two years ago.

As expected, residential construction was the biggest drag, down 5.1 per cent for the quarter and almost 10 per cent for the year.

It is the fourth consecutive quarter housing construction has fallen.

Engineering construction, which takes in big infrastructure projects, failed to offset the housing slowdown and fell 1 per cent for the quarter to be down 16 per cent over the year.

Construction in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT fell for the third consecutive quarter, but thing were worse elsewhere.

South Australia has been going backwards for four quarters. It is five quarters in Queensland, six in Western Australia and seven in the Northern Territory.

Tasmania is relatively healthy, having reported just two successive quarters of falling activity.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-28/cons...2-2019/11455886



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 25 2019, 05:13 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 24 2019, 11:21 AM

Trumps attack on Powell is misguided, but not for the reasons that he is Trump.
The US Fed has always done what it thinks is best for the big end of town.
Whether it thinks that by making the powerful and the wealthy(usually an intersecting set) even more powerful and wealthy, then some of the wealth (but never the power) t will trickle down to the less well off, or it just doesn't give a F$*^ about the folk below it is a moot point.
I am inclined to latter view.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 24 2019, 11:21 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 24 2019, 11:16 AM

Trump launches attack on Federal Reserve chairman
QUOTE
Mr Trump also tweeted a furious and highly personal attack against the Federal Reserve and chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, fuming that the Fed "did NOTHING!" and wondering who is "our bigger enemy" — Mr Powell or China's leader.

The outburst came after Mr Powell, speaking to central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gave vague assurances that the Fed "will act as appropriate" to sustain the nation's economic expansion.

While the phrasing was widely seen as meaning interest rate cuts, he offered no hint of whether or how many reductions might be coming for the rest of the year.

Mr Powell had barely finished speaking before Mr Trump escalated his criticism of the Fed, which he has repeatedly accused of keeping rates too high.

For months, the President has in particular ridiculed Mr Powell, who was his own choice to lead the Fed, an independent agency.

"As usual, the Fed did NOTHING!" Trump tweeted, adding, "We have a very strong dollar and a very weak Fed."

"My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powel (sic) or Chairman Xi?" — a reference to Xi Jinping.

Many economists have expressed growing alarm about the President's criticism of the Fed as an intrusion on its independence and a threat to its credibility.

AP/ABC

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-24/dona...ection=business

Hedgeye on Powel

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 24 2019, 11:16 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 17 2019, 04:37 PM

Buckle up for another bumpy ride on the ASX on Monday

Trump Says He’s Poised to Escalate China Trade War Within Hours
By Joshua Gallu and Shawn Donnan
August 24, 2019, 12:51 AM GMT+10 Updated on August 24, 2019, 6:27 AM GMT+10
Tweet follows new round of tariffs on U.S. soybeans, cars
Trump says he ‘hereby ordered’ U.S. firms to leave China

QUOTE
President Donald Trump signaled he may escalate the trade war with China in the coming hours after the country’s latest round of tariffs, firing off a new demand that U.S. companies seek alternatives to producing goods in China.

“I will be responding to China’s Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States,” Trump tweeted Friday, after China threatened to impose additional tariffs on $75 billion in American goods, including soybeans, cars and oil.


QUOTE
U.S. stocks fell after Trump’s remarks, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 2.6% on the day. Technology stocks were hardest-hit. Treasuries rallied.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...l-or-china-s-xi



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 23 2019, 08:50 AM
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Seems like the Employment figures are not quite as rosy in the US as we may have first thought.

From Market Watch
QUOTE
Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs.

The economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially calculated in its survey of business establishments. That’s the largest revision since the waning stages of the Great Recession in 2009.

The newly revised figures indicate the economy didn’t get a huge boost last year from President Trump’s tax cuts and higher federal spending. They also signal the economy is a bit weaker than previously believed and could give the Federal Reserve even greater reason to cut interest rates in September.

“This makes some sense, as the 223,000 average monthly increase in 2018 seemed too good to be true in light of how tight the labor market has become and how much trouble firms are said to be having finding qualified workers,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The average 223,000 monthly increase in employment in 2018 — the strongest in three years — could be trimmed to around 185,000, economists estimate.

Fewer jobs were created in restaurants, hotels, retailers and professional business services. Leisure and hospitality employment was reduced by 175,000, business services by 163,000 and retail by 146,400.


These figures come out once the Tax records are in a nd the BLS can check real employment changes against their survey estimates.
As someone who puts little credence on the wages figures put out by the ABS here in OZ, I was surprised to read that in most years the adjustments made to the BLS figures are around the 0.1% of the total non farm employment, pretty good by anyone's standards. These newly released figures were still only o.3% adjusted. Still pretty damn good I would have thought.
So although a revision downwards of 500,000 jobs seems huge, it turns out to be little more than a rounding error in the US.

What will be a little more important perhaps , is what the annual wages growth was for 2018.
Not sure when that gets released.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 17 2019, 04:37 PM
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Wall Street ends sharply higher on German stimulus optimism
Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as an ebbing bond rally and news of potential German economic stimulus brought buyers back to the equities market, closing the book on a tumultuous week.

QUOTE
While all three major U.S. stock averages ended the session higher, they still logged their third consecutive weekly losses, having been rattled since Monday by growing U.S.-China trade animosity, simmering geopolitical tensions and signals from the bond market that sparked fears of impending recession.

Germany’s coalition government is willing to suspend its balanced budget rule and take on debt, according to Der Spiegel magazine, raising hopes that Europe’s largest economy could steer itself away from recession and cooling worries over a global economic slowdown.


QUOTE
Rising bond yields gave a boost to rate-sensitive banks, sending the S&P 500 Banks index .SPXBK up 2.6%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 306.62 points, or 1.2%, to 25,886.01, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 41.09 points, or 1.44%, to 2,888.69 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 129.38 points, or 1.67%, to 7,895.99.

read more - https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stock...m-idUKKCN1V613R



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 11:03 PM
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Posts: 6,791
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 10:52 PM

Yield curves not the only problem

China Signals U.S. Tariff Delay Not Enough to Stop Retaliation
Bloomberg News
August 15, 2019, 7:08 PM GMT+10 Updated on August 15, 2019, 8:43 PM GMT+10
Committee that’s overseen retaliation issues statement
China says U.S. broke agreements between Trump and Xi
QUOTE
China called planned U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese goods a violation of accords reached by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, signaling an American move earlier this week to delay some of those levies was not enough to stave off retaliation.

The new 10% tariffs have taken the U.S. and China off the track of resolving their dispute through negotiation, the State Council Tariff Committee, which has overseen tit-for-tat retaliation, said in a short statement on Thursday. China “has no choice but to take necessary measures to retaliate,” it said, without specifying what the nation would do.

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 10:52 PM
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Posts: 6,791
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 15 2019, 07:09 PM

Here's David Rowe's version of the "inverted yield curve" smile.gif

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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