Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

A reminder to all members that you agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


162 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?
mullokintyre
post Posted: Today, 12:16 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,501
Thanks: 893


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Today, 11:20 AM

Yep, the inner city will become like ghettos. Only those who can least afford anything better will live there.
Glad i live in the country.



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Today, 11:20 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,080
Thanks: 2433


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Today, 10:46 AM

Interesting times!! excl.gif
There seems to be several resets happening now. Especially for families, Covid has shown up the attraction of having your own property, and a back yard. The existence of a bit of extra space or, better, a spare room to enable working from home has come into its own. Some are liking the digital commute and thinking of regional cities. Apartments do not offer that, as we would expect.

Against this is the needs of the cities, that urbanisation cannot continue sprawling out. There is still a need for some form of what is termed densification with infilling and / or more apartments. Perhaps this will continue, with smaller structures being built. Can you imagine being in a structure without windows that open for a prolonged period of time (the 14 day quarantined emerge stir crazy). And another need has been for amenity, parks and playgrounds, space to move. Good planning (not an Australian forte) !!


Among the younger generation, my son reports his friends and peer group are taking advantage now the AirBnB offerings are empty, to move out of the grungy inner city terraces. Rents are down and the market dynamics have tilted towards those renters that are cashed up (a minority but sizeable); the move is to the beach side (Sydney) and bayside (Melb) locations that offer more. Because they can now afford these locations. Enough of rising damp and large nutter populations.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Today, 10:46 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,794
Thanks: 1457


https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/personalfin...mic/ar-BB16qmVp

BUYING AN APARTMENT
Koch said renters should be saving money on their rent, while prospective buyers looking for an apartment should hold off at least a year.

'Apartment property market, particularly in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne, is just awash with stock at the moment,' he said.

Referring to data from CoreLogic, Koch explained that 52 per cent of off-plan apartments in Sydney are settling with a valuation less than when they were bought.

'That's a really worrying trend in terms of the apartment market,' he said.

Koch said rent is coming down 'quite substantially' in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne.

'So if you're a renter, negotiate your rent down when it comes up and you'll get big discounts,' he said.

'If you're a buyer of residential apartments, maybe wait for 12 to 18 months because valuations are really starting to trend down now.'

================================

do your own research as always!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 24 2020, 07:14 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,794
Thanks: 1457


https://www.afr.com/property/residential/ap...20200622-p554xq

Apartment for sale listings are surging across capital cities, led by Sydney with a 39 per cent jump in new stock during the past four weeks, in a sign investors may be offloading properties in a weakening rental market.

Domain data shows that between the four weeks to May 17 and the four weeks to June 14, apartment listings rose by 27 per cent in Melbourne and were up by 15 per cent in Brisbane and 37 per cent in Perth.


Apartment for sale listings are surging as owners bail out. Graham Denholm

New apartment listings jumped by 43 per cent in Adelaide and were up by 4 per cent in Canberra.

Compared with a year ago, apartment listings in Sydney were up 8 percentage points, while Melbourne was higher by 2 percentage points.

Domain's senior research analyst, Nicola Powell, said the trend could be a sign investors are moving on.

--------------------------------

look out....... ohmy.gif


Said 'Thanks' for this post: rlane  
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 27 2020, 10:48 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,794
Thanks: 1457


come back to this issue, not really good for the residential property markets



https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/lan...20200327-p54efk

bleak out look for the sector.......

 
henrietta
post Posted: Oct 18 2019, 10:44 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 4,269
Thanks: 701


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 7 2019, 04:23 PM

We recently spent some time in Canberra visiting friends. To say that I was gobsmacked by the facilities offered would be an understatement.
Canberra has every possible known amenity, plus many not even thought of in "average" communities.
Having also spent many weeks traversing the country, including much of the outback, I can sympathise with country folk who claim they don't much of a deal.

Canberrans are very, very spoilt. Their only problem is the crappy weather !!

Cheers
J



--------------------
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 

Featured Stock Stories





early birds
post Posted: Oct 18 2019, 08:43 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,794
Thanks: 1457


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...uts-are-working


Interest rate cuts are supporting Australia’s economy and housing market, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said.

“The economy has been through a very soft patch over the past year but it is actually gradually improving, the lower interest rates are working,” Lowe said during a panel event at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings in Washington.

================
he is right for the current housing rebound. it is the facts but...

---------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/10/18/rba...ousing-rebound/


Deputy Governor Guy Debelle told a finance conference in Sydney that the slide in investment in the housing construction sector will weigh on the economy through next year but the recent rise in house prices won’t have the impact many people claim

He said while the bank was forecasting a further 7% drop in housing investment over the next year there was “some risk” the impact could be larger and wider than the bank forecasts.

“We are forecasting a further 7 percent decline in dwelling investment over the next year, and there is some risk the decline could be even larger. This will directly subtract around 1 percentage point from GDP growth from peak to trough, given that dwelling investment accounts for around 6 percent of GDP,” Dr. Debelle told the Sydney audience.

--------------------------------------

he is right as well..................

=============================

i guess we have to re adjust our P/O...................... unsure.gif

 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 7 2019, 04:23 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,080
Thanks: 2433


In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 7 2019, 02:34 PM

Buying something for $706k isn't necessarily silly; if it's the case of using a financing facility of, say, $500k, it definitely is.
.
.
PS Mick: when people ask why I live in Canberra, my answer is, "To get my taxes back".
PPS: Also the gooses that give Canberra a tarnished reputation come from your electorates. They merely meet here.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 7 2019, 02:34 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,501
Thanks: 893


In Reply To: triage's post @ Jun 7 2019, 12:42 PM

QUOTE
But back to the hard grind of reality I just saw that a very average 4 bed house with no usable garage and only one bathroom in an average Canberra suburb sold at auction the other day for $706k.
That is just silly.

I would have said that just living in Canberra was plain silly ......

Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 7 2019, 12:42 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,837
Thanks: 1549


In Reply To: Mags's post @ Jun 7 2019, 09:53 AM

Phillip Soos is an independent economist and commentator. I watched a recent interview of him where he claimed that the the "debt accelerator" (annual change in the amount of mortgage debt) and the sales to new listings ratios are the two most reliable leading indicators he knows of for house prices, with about a 6 to 9 month lag. He said that even after the election those two metrics were indicating not only a continued fall in property prices but that the falls would begin to accelerate.

He appears to be of similar thinking to Steve Keen and also often refers to the analytical work of Martin North so it may be that he resides in the housing bears echo chamber. Martin North keeps pointing to what happened in Ireland in 2008 as the best guide for what may well happen in Australia in coming months (though as John Hempton points out, Ireland was tied to the euro whereas Australia has the free floating AUD which normally acts as a cushion for the domestic economy).

On the other hand the two main bloggers at macrobusiness, David Llewellyn-Smith and Leith van Onselen, have recently done pretty much a 180 degree turn by saying that now is the time for owner occupiers to buy as there is a new but weak cycle forming (something to do with housing not being about economic fundamentals but more to do with political economics and if the powers-that-be want the housing market to recover then it will).

But back to the hard grind of reality I just saw that a very average 4 bed house with no usable garage and only one bathroom in an average Canberra suburb sold at auction the other day for $706k. That is just silly.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
 


162 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING