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Dr Wally
post Posted: May 19 2019, 11:56 PM
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In Reply To: royco's post @ May 19 2019, 08:39 PM

True Royco but as you well and truely know, Clinuvels potential is absolutely phenomenal.
Who knows how big the little Australian company with the safe and beneficial photo protective drug will end up being. Simply going off of what we know right now, which is nowhere near the full picture, is exciting enough and it’s obvious that there’s going to be a few more big surprises unveiled after approval to create even more excitement and value.
One more nod to see it all come to fruition.

The truth is, sunlight is just like water. Both are deadly dangerous if you get the dosage wrong but both are absolutely essential to life on earth. 😎

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post Posted: May 19 2019, 08:39 PM
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Life changing investments...2009-2019
Sleeping pills needed because cuv still has a long way to go before reaching uber levels.


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post Posted: May 19 2019, 03:51 PM
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In Reply To: waz's post @ May 19 2019, 02:40 PM

Ok if we don't make listing nothing changes in long term so I don't care if cuv drops if not selected. If their science is correct, which is why we all invest then asx algorithms don't matter in long term.

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post Posted: May 19 2019, 02:40 PM
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There must be a chance that CUV won't be included in the June re-balance. My only rationale is that is must be due to liquidity. There is no doubt in my mind that CUV is ahead of all others, including COE, in mkt cap stakes. Here I mean average mkt cap over the prior 6 months. You also need to adjust av mkt cap for the IWF - investable weight factor (i.e. non publicly available shares).

Even after adjusting for IWF CUV in my calcs runs ahead. COE has no IWF adjustment but CUV does - but I believe this is limited to PW's 6.73% shareholding.

Thanks Johnny H for posting the S&P methodologies. What I found in the Float Adjustment doc was as follows (page 4 2nd para):

"When shares are held in a trust to allow investors in countries outside the country of domicile, these shares are normally included in float. Examples include ADRs, CDIs, Canadian exchangeable shares and similar arrangements. If the holdings underlying ADRs, CDIs, etc. form a control block, those shares are excluded from float."

This tells me that the CLVLY shares/CDIs held by BNYM are considered part of the public float and not deducted in determining the IWF.

Also, my analysis of CUV liquidity shows an average of $2.5m per trading day over the last 5.5 months. There are 10 days to go before the June re-balance data calc date of 31 May. The first month, December, had a liquidity of $800k per day. For January to mid May liquidity was $3.0m per trading day. CUV liquidity is improving all the time.

To get into the ASX200 a stock should be ranked 179 or higher. I believe COE was lesser ranked (in the mid-high 180s) so am baffled as to how it ascended. On mkt cap I rank CUV, AUB & NWH ahead of COE. Hence my view rocket science is involved.

Nevertheless, with CUV liquidity improving solidly each trading day with 10 days left till the re-balance cut-off and a (now) current mkt cap exceeding $1.5 billion, CUV must be very hard for the S&P Committee to ignore. My money is on CUV going into ASX200 in June. I also find comfort that Morgan Stanley recently punted CUV.

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post Posted: May 18 2019, 09:05 PM
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In Reply To: waz's post @ May 18 2019, 08:49 AM

So would it mean again that there is actually a high chance that cuv won’t be included again? Because of some liquidity issues those guys define to be more weighted then a market cap of 1.5 bn?

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Johnny H
post Posted: May 18 2019, 11:27 AM
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In Reply To: waz's post @ May 18 2019, 08:49 AM

For your weekend reading pleasure.

Reading and digesting these is in my procrastination pile; if anyone else has the time, please share what you find.

The rocket science: Attached File  methodology_index_math_2.pdf ( 946.51K ) Number of downloads: 366

Float adjustment: Attached File  methodology_sp_float_adjustment_2.pdf ( 382.58K ) Number of downloads: 156

Clinuvel until my bowels release for the last time.

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Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:

post Posted: May 18 2019, 08:49 AM
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In Reply To: blackm3's post @ May 17 2019, 07:29 PM

COE ranked #4 on my list based on adjusted mkt caps. Assume S&P employ rocket science to work this out. Now have to wait to 14 June when should be a further 3 to 5 spots available in ASX200. I calculate mkt liquidity for CUV to be within 7% of COE.

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post Posted: May 18 2019, 08:26 AM
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It would be hard not to be satisfied with the way the stock performed both internationally as well as from a pricing perspective. I have prepared the following summary to highlight the overall impact:

Another busy and productive night in both Germany and the US. New All Time High (ATH) price benchmarks set at each location.

UR9 – Up A$1.22 [that’s A$5.55 for the week] to – A$31.70 . Turnover for the day = 20,013 compares to the general average of 12,032. Trading range was between A$31.35 and a new ATH of A$31.78!

CLVLY – Up A$1.16 [that’s A$5.26 for the week] to – A$31.66 Turnover for the day = 30,065 (58 trades at average 518 per trade) against the general average of 10,724. Trading range was between A$31.35 and a new ATH of A$31.73.

These numbers compare to yesterday’s ASX closing price of A$31.46 which was up A$5.46 for the week after also hitting a new ATH of A$31.75

Like all other contributors on this board, I am enjoying the ride at present biggrin.gif

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post Posted: May 18 2019, 06:26 AM
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In Reply To: NewToCli's post @ May 18 2019, 04:51 AM

For us not in the know

Three White Soldiers

This pattern is usually observed after a period of downtrend or in price consolidation. It consists of three long white candles that close progressively higher on each subsequent trading day. Each candle opens higher than the previous open and closes near the high of the day, showing a steady advance of buying pressure. Investors should exercise caution when white candles appear to be too long as that may attract short sellers and push the price of the stock further down.

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post Posted: May 18 2019, 04:51 AM
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I know most of you are not interested in chart patterns etc... still sharing, because the strength in cuv currently is impressive... also you can see quite well the behaviours of market participantes in the chart... the last three days we saw almost the exact same move, same length, same strength, same pattern... no doubt on moving threw the 30 AUD ... very systematic buying behavior...

lets see what is more to come smile.gif happy weekend to all
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