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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
LevelHeaded2000
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 08:50 PM
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In Reply To: IntiRaymi's post @ Oct 24 2019, 06:47 PM

Yes, I believe Clinuvel will show similar stock chart as Avita. The PW incentive package incentivizes PW to market the company, so that will be the deciding factors. Clinuvel is mostly held by 20 large shareholders. It needs to get a few more thousand retail holders and new institutions on board. That is when stock price goes up 5x.


Looking at the Avita annual report there are some interesting findings.
  1. Since July 2018 Avita has diluted shareholders to the tune of 564 million stock shares (that is over 10x than all clinuvel shares). At current prices that is worth about 400 million dollars. This does not even include the 111 million shares that are unissued shares due to stock options. Nor does it include the executives performance incentives. For all the negatives this board has against the Clinuvel management be thankful that Clinuvel is not diluting shareholders like this. The compensation package while ultimately dilutive it also is aligned with shareholders and there is no way PW will hit every target.
  2. Avita is still suffering from huge losses. I would have no doubts they will dilute shareholders more

I would say if Avita can achieve price increases of it's stock given the above, then Clinuvel which is in a much better financial position and also a growing market will have an easy time producing similar market gains. Clinuvel is in a stronger position than Avita, IMO.

The primary difference between Avita / Clinuvel is the way each management is trying to market the company. Avita is obviously trying to gain more investors (nasdaq listing, lots of PR, etc). This is probably due to the fact that it is a state of continual dilution so it needs new shareholders. Clinuvel does not have that problem. On the other hand, PW's incentive package will encourage him to market the company to more shareholders, so I have no doubt he will over the next year.
Clinuvel's position is even stronger than Avita's. "It will pay off in the end"



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johnnytech
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 08:38 PM
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In Reply To: IntiRaymi's post @ Oct 24 2019, 06:47 PM

Avita is one of the stocks that I used in my original prediction 1-2 weeks before approval, that it would be Feb 2020 before we saw a climb out of the inevitable retreat after approval.

What's different with Clinuvel is the 10 yr avg monthly change chart, and the extreme spike in Novembers for CUV. (Avita has no seasonality to their 10 yr avg). My revised prediction was the short attack may close out in November.

Either way, I think we'll see all time highs in November or Feb and it'll be sustained like Avita.

By the way, I use shortman to find seasonality charts.


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Farleap11
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 08:26 PM
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In Reply To: Verharven's post @ Oct 24 2019, 06:31 PM

Apologies to all (particularly IntiRaymi) for misleading you on the closing price. As you correctly point out Verharven, in my haste I incorrectly typed A$34.40 instead of A$30.40. My calculation of monies outlaid was based upon the correct rate of A$30.40 x 200,000 to arrive at the A$6.08m.

No doubt like all other contributors on this board, I wish that it had closed at A$34.40. No doubt we will get back to that level and beyond in the coming months. In the meantime and in closing let me simply say, bring on the AGM.


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IntiRaymi
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 06:47 PM
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Another question for the board. In the chart attached you can see marked roughly the time of AVITA’s FDA approval last year then the later almighty rise to current levels. Can anyone compare and contrast this against Clinuvel’s situation and potential performance and whether it could be a positive indication?
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Verharven
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 06:31 PM
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In Reply To: IntiRaymi's post @ Oct 24 2019, 06:15 PM

I had to go into the course of sales to see it as very rare to see an aftermarket trade go through and not something I ever check on after the trading is done at 4:10 pm. Note the error in the price Farleap11 gave as should be $30.40. You can see the volume reflected in the quote CUV have on their site as the volume they always give is for the ASX and Chi-X combined so 470k shares for the day with 460k of that on the ASX. https://www.clinuvel.com/investors/share-prices

S3 XT is a Block Special Crossing which basically means it's a special sized (usually large) cross trade



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bretto32
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 06:27 PM
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In Reply To: IntiRaymi's post @ Oct 24 2019, 06:15 PM

Most of the time these after hour trades pop up we get shorted heavily the following day...

 

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IntiRaymi
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 06:15 PM
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In Reply To: Farleap11's post @ Oct 24 2019, 04:52 PM

So this isn’t showing on any of the run-of-the-mill charts. None showing that intra-day high of AU$34.40 and not many showing the full 460,488 but ~260,500 instead. Will we see this registered and its effects tomorrow?


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seeva222
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 05:29 PM
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In Reply To: Farleap11's post @ Oct 24 2019, 04:52 PM

Someone showed their cards


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Farleap11
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 04:52 PM
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Interesting that the overall shares traded for the day was 460,488 kicked along in no small way by a single trade of 200,000 at A$34.40 fifty minutes after normal close time!! That equates to an outlay of A$6.08m!!


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schlitzo
post Posted: Oct 24 2019, 04:25 PM
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I bought my first CUV shares (1,900) thru Nomura in Japan today, had to be done over the telephone, in Japanese for recording purposes. It's a weird place at times. The other '5,000,000' are in Australia!!! Time to switch off again for another couple of months to counter disappointment. More than likely we're heading to $28, but didn't want to take the risk. Happy with the price I bought in at so no need to keep tabs on the SP for a while. Hopefully, all the posts here will be upbeat again by Xmas.
As for voting, I will by making my choices, though I don't think it will make any difference, it hasn't in the past. So far management has obviously made all the right calls to get us where we are today. If it could have been accomplished quicker, I don't know. What I do know is that we're all sitting on something that is going to change our lives dramatically. For the sake of BB and a few more of us over 60, let's hope it's sooner rather than later. As JT posted, November can sometimes be a big month. GLTA!!!


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