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early birds
Posted on: Today, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

i'm scratch my head ---try to find prop reason
other than central banks printing money day and night, i can't see anything else!! unsure.gif

as you guys knew that i'm not fan of gold and silver.....but even me start to think that might be the way to hedge the risk at current situation!!

so sad for my self for the everyday little people to see the world in chaos......... sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Today, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

rallied back above 5925, on back of oversea's bullishness .....
asx200 is in no man's land.

market still looked bullish as whole. i guess have to stay on and keep eye on it!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/07/31/wou...age-your-money/

Next time you get an email in your inbox from Hot Copper (HC) advertising a particular ASX-listed company, it might pay to see whether this particular company has had a capital raising recently, because chances are that HC may have an equity position in that listed company. So, while all the recent marketing hype has been around HCs change in name to The Market Herald and its Canadian acquisition, its the size of the companys share portfolio that has changed the nature of HCs business model.

===================================================

blush.gif


not sure where to put this , so i put it here!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

morning guys
asx200 is below short term support level----firmly. down side target is 59725ish for shorter term. i can't see much further as too many uncertain geo--political risk ahead of us.

saw FITCH downgrade US bedt to "unstable"......they might saw the risk has increased for USA --CHINA confrontation will leads to something bad happens.

so far. major market ---US and EU market still in technical bullish trend.

hope you guys can help here with more ideas how investing or trading??? thanks in advance from me!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 31 2020, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200
my long index has been stopped out last night session.
for the medium stock holder ----here comes yellow lights flashing moment . 5960 is the last level the longs try hold for intra-day. hit there one should be discipline, GET OUT! no matter it's false break down or not!!

other major market still in the bull trend. despite the selling last night session.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 30 2020, 10:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/hotcopper-l...20200730-p55gzm


development that would normally prompt all sorts of chatter on its forums, Ernst & Young has resigned as the auditor of sharemarket forum HotCopper, shortly before the release of its full-year accounts.

The ASX-listed company, now known as The Market Herald, offered no explanation for the decision effective July 30, other than to say its new auditors will be RSM Australia going forward.

========================
unsure.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 30 2020, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

markets all of sudden went really quiet . only see some early zip zap action as month end option position adjust.

asx200 as long as 5975 holds bullish trend still alive,

so as other major markets. if long then stay long. but keep eye on the level to pull the trigger for stops.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 29 2020, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200----again 6000
keep eye on 5975, to me breach that level stops should be triggered
but if one have little bit longer term [few months to a year] might adjust to 5965 intra-day these level give away then down side target 5888---5900 within month or just less than a week.
little longer term----target 5700ish. can't see any further from me. above it's all pure TA studies.

in other major market all still in bull trend [ long and short terms]
my thoughts still is long EU market!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 28 2020, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/trump-...20200727-p55g0e

Six arrested at BLM rally, police defend crackdown
NSW police say they shut down the Black Lives Matter rally in Sydney to protect the public.

Assistant Commissioner Rick Willing said six people were arrested at the rally, which has abandoned after police followed through on a warning they would enforce bans on large public gatherings because of the pandemic. Five people were issued $1000 infringement notices.

"We are not anti-protest, just don't do it in the middle of a pandemic," Commissioner Willing told reporters.

=====================

glad to see things solved relatively peaceful!! smile.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 28 2020, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200 holds above support yesterday, and future up a little bit on the back of up day from US MARKET LAST NIGHT.
so longs still can hold their positions.

SPX looks performed well , that first target of 3310 still in tact and further up is 3700ish. can't see any further from me!!

if one wants to bet on the long side, my thoughts would be EU market!! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 28 2020, 09:42 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ne...ues/ar-BB17fDJF

shity whether , cops everywhere, hope these things can make these BLM activists think twice .
love living in peaceful world. a lot of everyday peoples like me think that way i guess!! sadsmiley02.gif


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2020, 09:39 AM


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Posts: 12,852

after weekend there are no major events happening around "hot spot"

but sellers seems king to sell asx200 --------- keep eye on 5975ish if 5965 been touched intra--day then that is the last level for the longs to abandoned ship. imho
it's TA base. i'm kinda have no confident for the FA at moment----it's all out of my "book" as i learnt before!! sadsmiley02.gif

all i can see is a lot of head wings for the market. but market still in the bullish trend!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 24 2020, 03:42 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/china-order...in-chengdu.html

keeps going!! things will getting worse i guess!! weirdsmiley.gif

market got head wings!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 24 2020, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/su...lly/ar-BB176k4l

freedom, democracy......... alright, but i don't think affecting other people's health , and country's economy is the right thing to do.
the guy mentioned " mistake of ruby princess" but why they want to make similar mistake again????
may be i'm getting old ----like to living in piece............i don't know!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 24 2020, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

morning peoples


Friday again , the geo--tention flare up again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/pompeo-in-f...nal-abuses.html

keep eye on asx200 at 5975 level , breach that today, reduce holding imho!!

EU and US market still well in the bull trend. so as other major market. but sentiment turning to cautious side.
my take is "better safe than sorry" !! ohmy.gif

what you guys think??

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 23 2020, 10:09 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/us-orders-c...ston-texas.html

The State Department confirmed on Wednesday the U.S. has ordered China to close its consulate in Houston, prompting Beijing to insist on firm countermeasures unless Washington immediately reverses its decision.

The move is an escalation of political tensions between the worlds two largest economies.

===============

just you think of things might settle down a little bit, here it comes!! cool.gif

i was wondering why all of sudden asx200 future drops with other major market last evening then i fond this.
but SPX still finished up and so as EU market. on TA base market still in bullish trend that includes asx200.

but not sure how market gonna trade this??? unsure.gif
not sure Mr. market can pass this news??

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2020, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ma...ers/ar-BB171G3E

New South Wales has recorded 16 new cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.


Three cases associated with the Crossroads Hotel cluster
Eleven cases associated with the Thai Rock restaurant cluster
One case is a man from Western Sydney who is a close contact of a previously positive case
One is a traveller in hotel quarantine

The next four weeks are the most critical for NSW since the coronavirus lockdown, Ms Berejiklian warned.

The Premier said officials had "a level of anxiety" about the chance of widespread community transmission in the state if rules are not followed

This is the most critical time for our state. If we main to get on top of the community transmission at this stage, we have a much better chance of continuing the move forward in a positive way, but the next few weeks are critical," Ms Berejiklian said

===========================
nervous , spewing, hopeless!! that is how i feel!! sadsmiley02.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2020, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

wish you have more luck Mick.
i said long before [since GFC] i'm not focus on this sectors anymore. just try to translate something send to me by a fiend of mine whom worked at wall st for over 30 years. he seems king on this sector
not blame you guys does that as USA try to lead westen world to corner China, the physical war possibility is increased big time and money printing by all central banks are on the brink of our control
i focus on the other things like oil digital currencies and few other things .
hope you have good reward on this things!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2020, 10:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-07-22...=none&tr=12

白银受益于工业品板块强势和海外通货膨胀预期,预计能继续获得比黄金更强的市场表现。需要注意的是,一旦海外通胀预期回落,白银将会跑输黄金。

================
silver benefit from industrial use and expectation off oversea's inflation. expecting better than gold performance . but need to be cautious if the expectation of inflation going down then silver might underperform the gold!!

hope it can help Mick!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2020, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

everything is possible nipper
i can't see that far atm . still long bias today , within month or two. asx200 target 6400---6500.

market is bullish on all TA base.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 21 2020, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/oxford-univ...arly-trial.html

A potential coronavirus vaccine developed by Oxford University with pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has produced a promising immune response in a large, early-stage human trial, according to newly released data published Monday in the medical journal The Lancet.

=============
another day another shot in arm for the market!!
for asx200---- keep eye on 6075 go through there the longs will go higher, it might carry asx200 into another bull run as Scotmo govt. gives second jobkeeper money will into next year....
reckon market will be the long bias for all day today!! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2020, 09:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

trump think it will disappear itself !! he still think it will these days. but the case in USA just made record after record.
can't count on the miracle with this virus , i reckon aussies still have chance to kill it like NZ did now not too late to act!! just freaking painful to be in the lockdown again.a

apart frpm NZ we did better than any other nation on the planet . if we can get rid of it , our economy will do a lot better and won't living in the fear and so on...

to be honest ---really hate to be lockdown again, but what else we can do Mick?? don't think we can ignore it as it so freaking contagious.... not sure where to turn..... sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2020, 08:13 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/re...20200720-p55dl2

During the past three months, rents in Sydney's inner suburb Haymarket fell 7.2 per cent, the largest decline across Australia. This translated to a loss of around $54 each week or $2800 over the year for landlords.

====================

if goes down with same rate for another three months , then there is a alarm to be heard . other wise everything will be fine as usual i guess!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2020, 06:51 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/corona...ons/ar-BB16XbNV

holly.....cr....

seems NSW gonna lockdown soon !! weirdsmiley.gif faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaak weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2020, 01:13 PM


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Posts: 12,852

yeah nipper
seems most of marketers like to set their stake at 6000 ----the round number.
all the options , warrants likely attach to 6000 since it been hit countless time by now.

slightly long bias at 6000 level for today's scalping trade.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2020, 11:18 AM


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Posts: 12,852

seems sellers won't let asx200 up. keep it within the trading range [ 5985----6100ish]
if long asx200 then set stops at 5975 intraday . if short then set stops 6075. for this whole week. it's just for pure TA base.

they had SPX upside target 3310 and under 3150 will trigger selling.

only DAX looks really bullish..

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2020, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/...les/ar-BB16VDlh

New South Wales Health confirmed six new cases of COVID-19 had been linked to the club after a father and son dined at the bistro while infectious on July 13.

Authorities are still in the process of contact tracing and speaking with all staff and patrons who attended the venue between 7pm and 9.30pm last Monday.

They have urged anyone who visited the venue on Monday July 13, and between Wednesday July 15 and Friday July 17, to self isolate for 14 days.


=========================

when whether getting colder , this virus seems really active and contagious , so afraid of NSW heading to lockdown again!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 19 2020, 05:33 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/china-...ver/ar-BB16Vci3

Floods are occurring at the same time at the Yantze River, Huai River and Tai Lake...The flood prevention situation is very severe," the water resources ministry said. Water levels in the region were likely to exceed the maximum level that reservoirs can withstand, the ministry added.

At Lake Tai, on the border of the wealthy coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, water levels have already risen above the safety guaranteed level, according to government data.

===================

lake Tai is at little city called Shuzho near by shanghai. the lake had many fresh water fishs and most famous ------golden hair fresh water crabs
when the flood recedes one can pick some on the road i guess. it is really expensive taka now.

seems mother nature not really kind to them this year of the rats ..................



  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 19 2020, 01:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20200717-p55cyy

A reconstruction of life in Wuhan has demonstrated the covert power of COVID-19, estimating up to 87 per cent of cases may have gone undetected in the early months because so few had obvious symptoms.

======================================

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 19 2020, 01:17 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ns...ria/ar-BB16UHkL

Health authorities are warning the risk of coronavirus transmission is much higher in New South Wales than in Victoria.

The reproduction rate sits at 1 in Victoria but in NSW it has reached 1.4.

===============================

still think NSW manage virus better than Vic.........
see how NSW goes next few days!! unsure.gif hope it can control this thingy !!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 17 2020, 10:11 AM


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Posts: 12,852

suppose a weak session as it's Friday at uncertain times
but seems all the selling has been done yesterday [ stopped out my long bet at 6065].
i'm gonna sit on fence today. because a huge sell off at chinese and hk market. and i can't find any one particular reasons behind it
afraid of something i don't know!!

SPX did well last night session so as EU market. still long bias !!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 16 2020, 01:20 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workpl...20200715-p55c7n

Of the 10 new cases, six attended the hotel, two were close contacts and two were cases who attended Planet Fitness, a nearby gym where authorities are calling anyone who attended from July 4 to July 10 to self-isolate. The cluster now includes two "tertiary" cases, or contacts of contacts.

====================================

make a lot of us nerves !! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 16 2020, 09:37 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20200714-p55byv

He also proposed clarifying tax rules for local fund managers managing foreign assets to ensure they do not pay domestic tax.

More than 1000 international businesses have their regional headquarters in Hong Kong and the government believes many of these firms are looking to relocate.

Hong Kong's financial sector employs more than 260,000 people.

===========================
hope Scotmo's Govt take this opportunity , i reckon Sydney will be the best place for that!! smile.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 16 2020, 09:22 AM


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Posts: 12,852

still target 6125ish for asx200 today

seems it will start at 6075---6100. so buy it close to 6075 with 15 points stops for set of long trade is my plan.

market around other major market are still in strong bull trend --esp EU market.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2020, 03:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200 looks really bullish with 60 minutes chart .

next target is 6125ish ..

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2020, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/companies/t...ory/ar-BB16JRzC

A central Texas county that includes Austin on Tuesday approved a plan to provide millions in tax subsidies to Tesla Inc if it builds a $1.1 billion vehicle factory in their community.
A majority of commissioners in Travis County voted in favor of providing the electric carmaker with a tax rebate worth at least $14.7 million. One commissioner abstained after asking for a week's delay.

=====================
seems people's that in the know, bet on it before!! unsure.gif
but it still can't match this valuation. just too many shorts on the stocks that made perfect "short squeeze" for the SP i guess!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2020, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

What is the market expecting out of this earnings season?
This US reporting season is perhaps the most significant in over a decade. After the outbreak of the Covid-19 in the US in February, this quarters results will encompass the heaviest impacts of the economic lockdowns and recession, and takes place at a time where the US economy remains in the midst of a worsening of the health crisis. Market participants are resigned to the fact earnings this quarter will be poor. But the hope remains that the deepest economic and financial impacts of the crisis have passed, with the earnings and macroeconomic outlook to trough and improve from here.

What will be the impact of Covid-19 on company profits?
Its expected to be a reasonbly dismal reporting period for S&P500 companies. Consensus estimates suggest that earnings growth across the index ought to contract by approximately 44%, as the full impact of the Covid-19 health crisis and economic lockdowns begin to manifest in corporate profits. The biggest hit to earnings is expected to be sustained by cyclical sectors within the S&P500. Earnings growth is tipped to contract by almost -90% across the industrial sector; while the financial sector is tipped to record an earnings contraction of around -50%.


What shape will the recovery take?
The core concern in this reporting season is how the Covid-19 health crisis and subsequent recession has impacted corporate profits. Though the results for Q2 will be significant, especially if companies undershoot expectations on aggregate, the most important detail for market participants within that will be the earnings guidance. Analysts estimate Q2 will be the trough in earnings growth, with the outlook for earnings expected to improve gradually in the coming quarters. Market participants will be scrutinizing company results for what shape the earnings and economic recovery in the US may take, especially given the new risks of second-peak in Covid-19 infections.

Can the earnings justify the markets rich valuations?
Secondary to earnings and the earnings outlook itself, a significant theme this US reporting period will be whether company fundamentals justify the high prices and rich valuations across the US stock market. The S&P500s forward price-to-earnings ration, though somewhat off recent peaks, remains elevated at multi-decade highs. Although this dynamic can be explained away as a chase for yield, supported by central bank largesse, price action, and volatility for the S&P500 this reporting season will be driven by the matter of whether company fundamentals can begin to reflect lofty stock prices.

How could this earnings season impact the financial markets?
The S&P500 has been at the centre of the financial universe in recent months, as market sentiment has improved, and market participants position for a recovery in the global economy. Its been a binary environment for markets lately, with the S&P500 leading the risk-off/risk-on dynamic thats underpinned recent price-action. Lately in global markets, and especially the S&P500, has broadly remained rangebound, and seemingly in a pattern of consolidation. Technical indicators point to a market poised to break-out to the upside in the short-to-medium term. But this outcome relies heavily on US corporates delivering an upbeat message about future growth conditions and earnings.

=====================

DYOR as always!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2020, 09:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20200714-p55bxu

NSW is on high alert with Sydneysiders nervous the new cluster, at the Crossroads Hotel in Casula, may lead to a Victorian-type situation. So far 30 people have tested positive, with one case linked overnight to a nearby aged-care facility.

I hope this nervousness means they start doing more social distancing and staying at home more, even if they are not sick, Professor Gilbert said.

==================

in front of this virus peoples acting differently . hope NSW can bring this under control in matter of days, so we don't have to face lockdown again!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2020, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

morning nipper and morning others

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/stock-marke...close-news.html

Stock futures climbed higher in overnight trading on Tuesday after Moderna said its coronavirus vaccine produced antibodies in all patients in an early trial, raising hope for a faster economic recovery.

===================

that is the real reason got market jumped up, now asx200 is closed above 5925, and today seems it will open at 6000ish, think of with this " exiting" news our market might have further to rise to somewhere
6025---6050ish or more. long bias for DT or short term trade today i guess!!

but we do see a big wright down with WPL that might reminds people that market still facing a lot of head win!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 14 2020, 07:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

it was more than a week old story. that sagga head took a lot of young kids life.
to me ....no matter what reason is, you are never harm the kids. sadsmiley02.gif

saw flooding everywhere and seems really affecting peoples daily life there.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 14 2020, 10:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

i'm in for a DT with asx200 5926 targeted 2953--2955 will closae it before end the day [ no matter win or lose]

can't see anything clear at moment.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 14 2020, 09:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200 backs below the support 5925. just !!
as SPX dived with Daq last night, that dragged our market future down with it.

for day trader or really short term traders , today might have a long bias . just a hint. not very convincing .
i might have little bet on the upside for asx200 , if it opens at 5925 ish.. unsure.gif

any thoughts guys??

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 13 2020, 10:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

i had same thoughts as you back to march, so i didn't buy any extra by then, the results of that is i nearly run out of the " crap paper" .
don't like to have that kinda "shit" again!! it's not that i want to buy them, it is i have been forced by other unreasonable peoples.
anyway , i hope NSW will come through with this little outbreak ------scary as i don't like back to "lockdown" again!! it's freaking uncomfortable !! weirdsmiley.gif

i kinda keep close eye on this thing everyday.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 13 2020, 05:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

There are 10 cases linked to the hotel and 11 cases linked to these cases:

A Sydney teenager who worked at the hotel including on July 3
A Sydney woman in her 40s who had dinner at the hotel on July 3
A Sydney man in his 40s who had dinner at the hotel on July 3
A Victorian man in his 20s had dinner at the hotel on July 3
A Sydney man in his 20s who had dinner at the hotel on July 3
A Sydney woman in her 30s who had dinner at the hotel on July 3
A Blue Mountains man in his 50s who had dinner at the hotel on July 3
A Sydney man in his 40s who had dinner at the hotel on July 3
A Sydney woman in her 20s who was at the hotel on July 3
A man in his 30s who had dinner on July 3

NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said seven new cases had been identified this morning, but two of those people acquired their infections in Victoria and both self-isolated on returning to NSW.

"ou can see that when we have some cases that were contacts of contacts of cases, you can see how rapidly Covid-19 can spread, if we do not at promptly," she said.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/nsw-on...20200713-p55bfs

===================

wooogeee mama!!! wacko.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 13 2020, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200

a "false broken of support 5925" last Friday , shake out weak longs then running back to 6000 the key level into earning season.
not gonna take any position for index today, see what's going on late.

SPX as bullish as ever going into US earning season. seems 3310 target for SPX is on track at this stage.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 13 2020, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/07/13/chi...key-gdp-number/

Ahead of key trade and GDP data this week, we saw a small rise in car sales in June for the second month in a row, moderate consumer inflation, strong bank lending, and producer price deflation, although at a slightly easier level.

---
Sales by Chinese brands fell 11.6% in June from a year ago to 590,000 units. Their market share shrank 5 percentage points from the same time a year ago to 33.5%.

=================
seems which date that compare to is the key....and China economy still in bad shape compare to last year. that is what i'm thinking, if everyone else doing badly around world how China gonna doing good?? unsure.gif

net sure how market gonna reacting when their GDP figure come out!! unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 13 2020, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/07/13/ope...-ease-oil-cuts/

OPEC, specifically Saudi Arabia has blinked on global oil production curbs.

Confidence in the current level of global oil prices will take hit from reports that Saudi Arabia wants to slash the 9.7 million barrels a day production cut due to expire at the end of the month.

Media reports at the weekend said the OPEC + group, which includes Russia and several smaller producers will be asked to approve a Saudi move to trim the 9.7 million barrel reduction by 2 million barrels a day, to apply from August 1.

===============================================

the big swings already over , not sure at what level people can bet on oil again???? unsure.gif sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 12 2020, 08:31 PM


Group: Member
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https://www.afr.com/politics/nsw-at-crossro...20200712-p55bau

NSW is urgently tracking 600 people linked to a growing coronavirus outbreak at a south-west Sydney pub as Premier Gladys Berejiklian warns the state is on high alert to avoid a deadly second wave of COVID-19.
============

like many NSW peoples i'm getting nerves
really hate to see NSW get second wave, can't help myself bought few extra things that including "crap paper". no freaking laugh matter !! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 12 2020, 08:23 PM


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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/07/10/pri...-not-headlines/


Basis this and parabolic nature of many stocks, the inherent risk has built to be sufficiently high that a significant cash or short position is warranted. Add to this, the number of economically sensitive stocks that are testing support or breaking lower is noticeably increasing as well. Everything from IAG to BSL to Lend Lease to Transurban to Challenger all look troublesome. I know that when I find a lack of value and technically attractive setups, it is a time to be concerned.

================

not agreeing all the things he says, but dose think he made some good points

be cautious is right thing to do i guess!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 10 2020, 03:22 PM


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Posts: 12,852

40 minutes to go and asx200 start to tank towards 5925 at cash market. dosen't look good for the long trade atm.

be nimble guys!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 10 2020, 11:50 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/airborne-tr...t-who-says.html


The World Health Organization published new guidance Thursday, saying it cant rule out the possibility that the coronavirus can be transmitted through air particles in closed spaces indoors, including in gyms and restaurants.

The WHO previously acknowledged that the virus may become airborne in certain environments, such as during medical procedures that generate aerosols. The new guidance recognizes some research that suggests the virus may be able to spread through particles in the air in indoor crowded spaces. It cited choir practice, in restaurants or in fitness classes as possible areas of airborne transmission.

==========================

after many moon months ------------it's airborne !! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 10 2020, 11:20 AM


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2--3 cents away from my short term target for TLS , i guess with current market condition even fundies like bet on this old dog

for investor...... i reckon medium term [a year or so] 3.75----3.80, would be reasonable target. if it can over come that level with bit of volume, then it will enter the bullish phase on pure TA base

DYOR as always!!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 10 2020, 09:31 AM


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Posts: 12,852

asx200

5925 has been breached last night at future market, if today cash market close it below it then 5700ish is the down side target .imho

not sure the direction, but it's Friday. cautious is the word i guess!!

US market had split fashion , wek with Dow and bullish with Daq, SPX stuck on the middle of the two, 3150 still hold ..that is still bullish.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 9 2020, 04:07 PM


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https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/na...ine/ar-BB16vNWV

Obviously theyve had considerable time to consider their options to this point in time, she said.

Can I state quite stridently that we will be charging overseas visitors rather than charging NSW residents


=======================

do it!!!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 9 2020, 01:08 PM


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https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/realestate/...ars/ar-BB16vrEo

The latest data from Domain shows apartment rents dropped 3.2% over the June quarter, their largest fall in 15 years.
Melbourne, Sydney and Hobart led the plunge as shut borders hurt their tourism and international student markets and increased the number of long-term rentals.
House tenants in Melbourne and Hobart also saw substantial falls alongside those in Canberra, Brisbane, and Perth.

=====================

banks give another 4 months "mortgage holidays" that might soften the blow??? unsure.gif
but will add up to future pay up!!




























  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 9 2020, 11:48 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/companies/telecommunica...20200703-p558nh

That means if the new TPG decides to make a grab for market share by mass selling cheap mobile plans, it will mean more pain for Telstra shareholders. On the other hand, it would be good news for consumers at least in the short-term and would prove competition tsar Rod Sims' fears unfounded.

As it is, most market watchers doubt this is what TPG will do.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kane Hannan argues an aggressive pricing strategy would be the wrong move. He says TPG already has a strong share in its core metro markets, adding: "Any aggressive price-led strategy would result in strong competitive responses, disrupting the current market repair and limit TPG subscriber benefits".

New Street Research analyst Ian Martin says domestic analysts and investors have a largely similar view. But he says his overseas clients have a different view.

They tend to think its inconceivable if youve got some capacity not to go and try to win market share, he says.

============================

still think TLS is a reasonable investing ,
my short term tarfet seems will be hit really soon.
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 9 2020, 09:50 AM


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https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/gho...20200707-p559u3

"However the gate was left open by the premier with the returning travellers and his choice of security. This decision will no doubt haunt him as it continues to damage the Victorian economy and peoples livelihoods."



"It's been a very lonely existence," Ms Bennett said "We'll soldier on and keep a smile on our face."

=============

it's heart broken ..... whole country nearly got virus free but this....................
really thought Australia and New Zealand can be doing the best than whole world with this............

my legs all crossed for NSW won't have the same as Vic .
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 9 2020, 09:20 AM


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Posts: 12,852

asx200

seems it will retesting 6000 the vary key level again today after US market had good session last night.
but with lockdown for Vic , investors might have bit of pause . on TA front trend is still bullish. long bias for the day traders today if the index is under 5990........

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 8 2020, 10:46 AM


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https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/personalfin...mic/ar-BB16qmVp

BUYING AN APARTMENT
Koch said renters should be saving money on their rent, while prospective buyers looking for an apartment should hold off at least a year.

'Apartment property market, particularly in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne, is just awash with stock at the moment,' he said.

Referring to data from CoreLogic, Koch explained that 52 per cent of off-plan apartments in Sydney are settling with a valuation less than when they were bought.

'That's a really worrying trend in terms of the apartment market,' he said.

Koch said rent is coming down 'quite substantially' in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne.

'So if you're a renter, negotiate your rent down when it comes up and you'll get big discounts,' he said.

'If you're a buyer of residential apartments, maybe wait for 12 to 18 months because valuations are really starting to trend down now.'

================================

do your own research as always!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 8 2020, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

with current situation
TLS might have been a relatively safer bet.

still hold my 3.55 target for short term [ one or two months]

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 8 2020, 09:40 AM


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Posts: 12,852

Vic lockdown that will set asx200 to the back footing,

but as long as 5925 holds , the short term bull trend still alive . keep eye on that level imho.

SPX seems hit res try to consolidate , if it can give another push up then 3310ish would be the short term target, if falls below 3125 then look under 3000 [ 2825ish for me]

c'mon guys, give us your thoughts and we can form some better ideas to trading or investing...pleeeeease!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 7 2020, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

still directionless for asx200

seems asx200 gonna stuck current trading range for a while . and range become narrow [ 6000----6100]

but other market all still in bullish trend.

if you guys have some idea please share it here. we discuss it and help each other to make few penny... tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 6 2020, 01:01 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.ft.com/content/45d0a047-360f-4a...ee-108f436015a1




Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the co-founders of Robinhood, said they were devastated by Mr Kearns death, and vowed that the company would expand educational resources related to options trading, tweak the app to clearly show users financial exposure when making options trades and would consider adding new criteria for customers to trade sophisticated options.
====================

RIP Alex Kearns. .

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 6 2020, 11:04 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/melbourne/le...ons/ar-BB16mPun

now , i understand as why Pauline Hanson is so popular in aussie....
facts and common senses is rare thing these days, and she is the daredevil .....................tip my hat off to her, even i don't like her!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 6 2020, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200

seems stuck in the range of 5950--------------6150. not sure what direction today, so not much of trading activity for me.
only wish TLS to have another good day, aim it go over 3.50 in short term.

all the markets still bullish, !!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 5 2020, 12:05 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/genomi...ria/ar-BB16l6S4

super spreader of Covid-19 as a source for many new infections across Melbournes north and west.

===========================

should be find curer meds really soon . weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 4 2020, 04:38 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why...2?mod=home-page

i did think of " long EU market / short US market" as good pair trade not long ago
seems these big fundies think of this trade for medium or longer term. rolleyes.gif

do think of DAX for long trade if one has bullish view!! imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 4 2020, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/th...own/ar-BB16iFYQ

Thousands refuse testing despite hotspot lockdown

================================

if you are right [ i think you are]. this is another media try to create "human bite dog" headline.
but Vic is in bad shape atm. i heard hotel quarantiners had sex with hotel workers in Vic eg.... story goes on
not sure it is true or false anymore these days.

better shut my eyes and try to look after the close one !! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 3 2020, 11:19 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/manato...20200703-p558qa

We have seen some media reports in other parts of the country where people have refused to take the test ... It is compulsory and we have 100 per cent compliance with testing."

===================

why??? unsure.gif
seems plenty of selfish irresponible peoples out there.. cool.gif

------------------
Coronavirus: 'I'm all for masks,' says Trump in change of tone

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53258792

---------------------------------------------

everyone is an expert these days, not just trumpies wink.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 3 2020, 04:27 PM


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Posts: 12,852

ahhh, now i know why it jumped up today

------------------------------------------------
Brokers eye Telstra on postpaid price rises
Tom Richardson

Ord Minnett has joined UBS in telling clients to buy Telstra shares on the back of its move to raise postpaid mobile pricing across the board by $5 to $15 a month.

"We consider this a bold move by Telstra at a time when the industry is expecting Vodafone to be more aggressive on pricing following its merger with TPG, although we believe the move is the right one given the current industry dynamics in terms of competition and 5G investments."

Ords pointed to the coming of 5G as crucial to Telstra's chances of performing well into the future.


Telstra chief executive Andy Penn said it's important to bring customers into the 5G ecosystem. Steven Siewert

"The new pricing structure, where all but the lowest tier are given 5G access, appears to make more sense," wrote the broker.

"This is similar to what we saw in the US, where carriers have found they are unable to charge an additional fee for 5G access, particularly given spotty 5G coverage. This guarantees some return for Telstra on its 5G investments."

Ord Minnett maintains an accumulate rating on Telstra with a medium-risk rating and $4.10 price target.

Telstra shares are up 2.8 per cent to $3.32 today.

======================

it closed at 3.36 the day high.
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 3 2020, 03:46 PM


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Posts: 12,852

3.35 now. something inside knows?? unsure.gif

nice pop up for me though!! tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 3 2020, 10:16 AM


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Posts: 12,852

break through 3.27...... if it close above it then next target is 3.55

keep eye on it ,, it will take time i guess!!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 3 2020, 10:05 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20200703-p558ly


Recent central bank actions mean capital markets are no longer "free", according to Bridgewater Associates's Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund.

"Today the economy and the markets are driven by the central banks and the coordination with the central government," said Dalio, speaking at the Bloomberg Global Asset Owners Forum on Thursday (Friday AEST).

As a result, "capital markets are not free markets allocating resources in traditional ways".

======================

kinda take the words out my mouth ..............
capitalism and economic 101 all can throw out of windows

doing less watch more from sideline might be wise...imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2020, 10:47 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/stock-marke...close-news.html

market jumped on this "better than expected number".... it looks really bad number whatever you cut it, i guess there just too much money been printed .......... thumbdown.gif
kinda knew Mr market gonna jump on this, so out of most of shorts, but didn't have enough longs.

only had few top 20 stocks in our market , might get a jump start tomorrow when our market opens.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2020, 05:22 PM


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Posts: 12,852

6000 over come, next upside target is 6121, then 6183.
bulls keep going !!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2020, 05:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

holly molly nipper,!!!!! don't know what to say, keep yourself away to your family member , and so on......

i hope you are ok i freaking really do, mate !! wub.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2020, 03:41 PM


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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/nsw-ye...20200702-p5587e

Fifty in isolation after Sydney Woolworths test

===========================

just hope these 50 peoples all test negative ......really HATE to see another outbreak in NSW. sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2020, 09:41 AM


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Posts: 12,852

not that much to add

asx200 ---range 5925----6000 for this session, use 5950 as key level to scalping this session.

DAX was in a glitch in the first hour after their cash market opened last night {or evening]

SPX had another good day after Daq hit fresh high.

market breath still bullish.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2020, 02:56 PM


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Posts: 12,852

china still rely on export [over 30%] their GDP??
if world economy is in deep shit, how they can do better???

i guess everyone is in the dirty hole atm. sadsmiley02.gif



  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2020, 01:15 PM


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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/this-i...20200630-p557t1


NSW threatens $11,000 fine, jail time for people entering from Vic hotspots

NSW refuses to take international flights diverted from Melbourne
=============================

i'm little confused ----is Sydney and Melbourne board still open?????? the news said it still open!! unsure.gif

not good news at all!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2020, 10:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

i noticed last few sessions that TLS is little weaker than usual , caused by TPG and vodaphone . after their merge they try to spend some money to compete with TLS and Optus
to me it's just short term price pressure to TLS.. on the long run ---no matter how you cut it..............it's reduced the competition in this field .

so TLS at $3.00 ish is a good investment choice relatively safe than other stocks given current uncertainty in the market..
lot's of " working from home" all that. it should be a good investment for medium and long term...........IMHO

i know it will be more than that . hope you guys can feed us more of TA MA eg.... tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2020, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

new financial year
should be some of fundie's money will get into market as "odder " in the first week?? unsure.gif

keep eye on the market. tug of war rolling on------money printing vs bleak outlook.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 30 2020, 10:13 AM


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Posts: 12,852

bought few top 20 stocks likes of TLS WBC eg.... for a day trade , for last day od financial year window dressing from those big fundies. tongue.gif

try to cream it!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 29 2020, 03:32 PM


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Posts: 12,852

Scott Morrison says the government needs to be cautious about providing too much financial support for the unemployed because it could discourage them from seeking out extra work.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/jo...ays/ar-BB1659Tp

=========================================

it's late but better late than nothing happening.........hope he can come up something fairer for the ones that spending with their means.
my daydream again i guess!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 29 2020, 09:40 AM


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Posts: 12,852

any ideas H as how to take advantage from those big fundies adjust prices?? unsure.gif

that would be nice creamy top for two sessions short term trading.. tongue.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 29 2020, 09:03 AM


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Posts: 12,852

The ASX will be dominated by end of month, quarter, financial year window dressing, and profit-taking. Perhaps they will even each other out. The window dressing will include end of financial year tax selling. With two days to go the ASX 200 is down 10.8% for the year and 11.6% year to date. But it is up 21.9% in the quarter so far and 2.6% for the month of June.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/06/29/mar...erable-quarter/

i guess stocks will have some erratic moves at last two sessions of end of financial year. unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 29 2020, 08:50 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/06/29/sha...-11-bankruptcy/


The disruption in global energy markets has claimed its biggest victim so far Chesapeake Energy Corp filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Sunday in the US, ending life as a fallen pioneer of the fracking boom and now bust.

==================================

saw these type of thingy coming, thought i had right bet.....but............................ only can cry for myself!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 29 2020, 08:46 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://au.yahoo.com/news/victoria-cases-co...-213150208.html

Victoria recorded 49 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, the highest daily total in the state since April 2 when 68 cases were detected.

"If it continues to increase, I think those are the circumstances where you think about an additional intervention, and especially if it is localised in a particular postcode or a particular suburb," Professor Sutton said.

====================

not looking good at vic..... thought we can be free of movement within australia, but this is really unpleasant news. weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 28 2020, 11:38 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/we...say/ar-BB160qen

He argued no single intervention on its own made a person completely immune to transmission.

===========================

if one can find single intervention that can stop spread this virus ......man!! that person will be treated like god, budda, or something like that.

Vic govnt, should gives these hot spot suburbs free masks----say 10 piece for each household every week. it might help .imho

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 27 2020, 12:51 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/black-swa...6?mod=home-page

We are printing money like theres no tomorrow, Taleb said, referencing the Federal Reserves efforts to ease the financial pain of the epidemic by delivering trillions of stimulus to the market. The Fed also cut interest rates to a superlow range of 0% and 0.25% back in March, and may not have a lot of room to further ease the economic pain of the viral outbreak and other problems that could arise amid this crisis.

And COVID seems to be there even if the pandemicdies down, you will still have people cautious enough that it will impact a lot of industries, he said.

Hedge funds that are designed to benefit from tail risks have enjoyed a remarkable run-up in the age of COVID-19.

==============
big bear's view.

make some sense as usual !!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 26 2020, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

think of asx200 will test 5935ish this session at least
if it can hit through, then the index will turn really bullish towards month end, my guess is 6000 can't even stop it to run up next week.
i know i'm broken records for the short term bullish bias ..........

hope some of you guys can chip in your thoughts... tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2020, 07:34 PM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/germany-see...hterhouses.html

Most slaughterhouse workers come from eastern European countries like Romania and Bulgaria and are employed by subcontractors rather than the meat-processing firms themselves, thus pay is generally low and workers often live in close (and often in cramped) quarters, making it easy for a virus to spread, experts note. Some critics of the industry have even likened working conditions in the countrys slaughterhouses to modern slavery.

======================

i'm not so sure of that?? Melbourne slaughterhouse outbreak...few of US slaughterhouse outbreak , then this German slaughterhouse outbreak

seems key word is slaughterhouse-----cool or cold condition with dead meat....... good for this virus?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2020, 07:14 PM


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https://www.afr.com/property/residential/ap...20200622-p554xq

Apartment for sale listings are surging across capital cities, led by Sydney with a 39 per cent jump in new stock during the past four weeks, in a sign investors may be offloading properties in a weakening rental market.

Domain data shows that between the four weeks to May 17 and the four weeks to June 14, apartment listings rose by 27 per cent in Melbourne and were up by 15 per cent in Brisbane and 37 per cent in Perth.


Apartment for sale listings are surging as owners bail out. Graham Denholm

New apartment listings jumped by 43 per cent in Adelaide and were up by 4 per cent in Canberra.

Compared with a year ago, apartment listings in Sydney were up 8 percentage points, while Melbourne was higher by 2 percentage points.

Domain's senior research analyst, Nicola Powell, said the trend could be a sign investors are moving on.

--------------------------------

look out....... ohmy.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2020, 06:52 PM


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Posts: 12,852

Shane Oliver My take on life in Australia during a recession

Going into a recession is bad news. When the economy goes backwards, spending contracts, the jobs market gets tougher, wages go down the list goes on. This period ahead has come as a shock to many Australians, but there are some things worth noting that might make it easier to bear.

Australia has been battling through a calamitous start to 2020 so far. We kicked off the year with devastating bushfires, which were already detracting from growth in the first quarter. February saw the beginning of COVID-19 disruptions to the local economy, starting with travel bans and moving to a lockdown from mid March which meant some sectors like retail, tourism and hospitality had to grind to a halt.

This accounts for negative growth in the March quarter, and the worst is yet to come in the June quarter results, meaning Australia is likely in its first recession since 1991, when Bob Hawke was prime minister and Paul Keating was treasurer. Many Australians werent even born then, and for those who were, its been nearly 29 years of growth since.

How this recession compares to 1991
This isnt a typical recession. A typical recession is preceded by a boom inflation goes up, the central bank tries to control it with higher interest rates, and we have a bust. The situation preceding this recession was almost the opposite growth was low, interest rates were at record lows.

Because most of the economic damage has been caused by a disruption in the form of the coronavirus shutdown, and we havent had the classic build up of excesses youd normally see before a recession, we should be able to re-start the economy a bit faster than we did in 1991.

Spending power is still in the economy people have been restricted from spending because of lockdowns, not simply because of a lack of desire or confidence to spend. This means there is pent up demand, which can find a home as restrictions continue to ease.

In addition, there are a number of factors that have allowed Australia to fare relatively well compared to other countries throughout the pandemic, which provide hope for recovery:

Australias management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic has seen it ranked second in the OECD, behind New Zealand, for virus control. Its ability to mitigate and suppress the virus has allowed governments to relax some of the social distancing restrictions and shutdowns earlier than expected, which is good news for the economy.

In relation to stimulus from the government, Australia has among the highest rates of direct spending for stimulus, as opposed to loans in the world. Whilst the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stated that it would be extraordinarily unlikely for cash rates to be cut to negative in Australia, the RBA has reiterated that it remains committed to do what is necessary, such as additional quantitative easing, to ensure Australia is positioned well for a recovery.

Australia appears to be well placed compared to other countries. Even with the March quarter being negative, this result is still a better outcome when compared to the rest of the world given the US declined by 1.3%, Europe contracted by 3.8% and Canada fell by 2%.

Important to remember: risks remain
There are still risks that could derail the good momentum. The main risk is the potential for a second wave of COVID-19 infections which could have a devastating effect if the economy was to be shutdown again. During the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918, the reopening of trade and the relaxation of restrictions of public gatherings led to a significant wave of illness and death. In saying that, of the countries we are monitoring at time of publishing, its only Iran that is experiencing a true second wave. Hopefully, a strong regime of testing, quarantining and case tracking along with continuing social distancing and hygiene rules will keep a second wave at bay.
=============================

bit of long wing stuff, but worth take one's few minutes i reckon!!!


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2020, 12:46 PM


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Posts: 12,852

tested 6000 ish but still can't go through it with really light volume so far.

half days gone, not sure what's market gonna do this arvo....... unsure.gif

lean to bullish side for me!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2020, 09:26 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/tr...ays/ar-BB15Sx7v

surprised me that still have 23%

i for one think think that damage has been done by

The past year has seen China impose stiff tariffs on Australian barley exports, warn its students against studying in Australia, as well as being identified as the source of cyber-attacks against the country.
and few other economic events.

vise versa , the trust for aussie in china plunged as well.


both side's media played big part of this i reckon!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2020, 09:13 AM


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Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/explai...-us/ar-BB15T2Yo


"You can't talk about a second wave in the summer because we're still in the first wave. We want to get that first wave down. Then we'll see if we can keep it there," Fauci told the Washington Post last week.

=====================

bit of knowledge of second wave...........
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2020, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/moody-...20200623-p5556y

Australia is one of just 10 countries to retain its AAA credit rating through the coronavirus-induced global recession, after Moody's Investors Service affirmed the pristine rating and maintained its stable outlook for government finances.

=====================

that will be further up side for AUD i reckon. but i'm not focus it as much as some others here.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2020, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200
i got feeling that it will not only test 6000 key level again this session but also hit through it

so if one tries TD the bias lean to long side if it opens under 6000 , kinda think asx200 will have few good sessions than other market towards Friday. IMHO

DYOR as always.

hope coodeman can give us some TA level!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2020, 12:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/stock-marke...close-news.html

Stock futures recover after Peter Navarro clarifies that U.S.-China trade deal is not over

==================================

fake news???? at first to help his mate?? weirdsmiley.gif

what a world we living??!!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2020, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

you seems got it right nipper
head butts the 6000 again for asx200, now it seems can't over come the sellers.

hard to trade it. but market breath still on the bullish side----just!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2020, 09:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

looks asx200 will start at 6000ish this morning
as 30th of June closes , we might see a window dressing ---big times this year. it means that asx200 will really outperform other markets this week?? unsure.gif

i for one think it likely to happen!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 22 2020, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

thought asx200 gonna drop more than current level
but 50 minutes gone, it still stays current level. not sure the direction!!

coodeman, i need your idea!!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 22 2020, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

China is also set to announce the June fixing of its benchmark lending rate at around 9:30 a.m. HK/SIN on Monday. 74% of participants in a recent snap survey conducted by Reuters expected no change to the one-year loan prime rate.

China: 1-year and 5-year loan prime rate announcement at 9:30 a.m. HK/SIN

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/asia-market...s-in-focus.html

============================================

not sure how AUD gonna react to it. might be no reaction at all?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 22 2020, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/economist-m...impression=true

Zombie markets are markets that are completely mispriced, theyre completely distorted, El-Erian said. Why? Because there is a policy view that you need to subsidize everything in markets for now.

=====================

most of marketers knew that..... he didn't provide solutions ---how to trade or deal with this type of market?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 21 2020, 10:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/travel/tripideas/...ing/ar-BB15M1XG

President Donald Trump said he told the U.S. government to reduce testing for the virus, apparently to avoid unflattering statistics ahead of the U.S. election in November.

==========================================================

WTF............... lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 21 2020, 06:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

should investors buy it at current level or wait for it ??? unsure.gif

what do you think nipper??

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 21 2020, 04:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

NSW marks another day with no community transmission
New South Wales has gone another day with no community transmission of COVID-19.

The state recorded five new cases of coronavirus as of 8pm last night from more than 13,000 tests.

All of these positive results were in returned overseas travellers in mandatory hotel quarantine.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/vi...ted/ar-BB15LINX

========================

at least NSW can have more free movement inside NSW , so many people can have some form of normality ???? unsure.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 20 2020, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

jealous is the word Mick.

have good time!! don't forget come back here when back home!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 20 2020, 11:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://au.yahoo.com/news/vienna-police-fin...-205840251.html


Man fined $800 over 'massive intestinal wind'
Associated Press
Yahoo News Australia3 days ago
A man in Vienna has been fined 500 euros (AU$817) for breaking wind loudly in front of police a move that the Austrian capitals police force was at pains to defend on Tuesday (local time).

The Oesterreich newspaper reported the fine stemmed from an incident on June 5 and the offender was fined for offending public decency.

City police wrote on Twitter of course no one is reported for accidentally letting one go.

They added the man had behaved provocatively and uncooperatively during an encounter with officers that preceded the incident.

=========================

can a person hold on his/her farts, i just imagine the guy who let it go must feel the relieve , but paid $800 bucks for that is expensive .imho
must be feel good through afterwards. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 19 2020, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

While in NSW, there were seven new coronavirus cases confirmed overnight.

All new cases were returned travellers in hotel quarantine, NSW Health said.

================

didn't say which country ,cities..........

seems NSW is ripe for opening....

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 19 2020, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

it seems a "ground hog" day for asx200----and other major markets as well

asx200 will struggle with 6000----we might see few "head butt" that level this session. it's Friday ..most of traders will off load their positions--long or short.
little bit more shorts than longs near 6000 is my wild guess!!

for longer term investors, it's like watch the paint dry sort of day!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2020, 06:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-tear...7?mod=home-page

i bet when trump got elected that year, she is the one of many righties jumping for joy , that time people mood had swing to the extreme right, and now people had enough of that and mood swing to extreme left and she has to wait for for her meal at big Mac .

this is how divided world works----tit for tat---confrontation , go to extreme level. then leads to some shity situations. media will be happy---" it's another human bites dog" story to get more readers.

thumbdown.gif

keep going.......
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2020, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

TOP 12 THEMES ACCELERATING IN TMT:MS Team Tech out with 12 themes likely to drive structurally higher investment in technology and prove sustainable long-term, as the benefits of digitalization last well beyond the pandemic.



1. Accelerating Public Cloud Adoption

2. E-Commerce: The 2 Year Pull-Forward

3. Accelerating Contactless Payments

4. Food Delivery Digs Into Restaurant TAM

5. Death of Paper, Rise of Automation

6. Digital Entertainment & Network Connectivity on the Rise

7. Data as the Differentiator

8. Navigating Tensions on the Global Trade Map

9. Collaboration Tools: Working Together When Working Apart

10. Ad Spend Shifting from Offline to Online

11. Jump-Starting the Heartbeat of Health Tech

12. AR / VR To Usher in a New Medium for Digital Interactions
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2020, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/some-peo...20200617-p553f9

I am actually writing a book called The Excuses to Not Come to Work because of COVID," he said.

"About 30 per cent of our JobKeeper workers are not coming in and the excuses are ridiculous.

"We had one person say that she shouldn't come in because her mother worked at the hospital and she couldn't expose her to COVID. We checked and her mother hadn't worked at the hospital for over a month.

"Then you have to go through the whole IR process on this you have to sit down and work through the issue with them and you have to say they are abandoning their work.

"I think this is a significant problem because we may then need to pay for people we might not have needed."

============================

if i can get paid $1500 two weeks for sit at home doing nothing, why the heck i'm gonna take the job get paid less or similar to go to work to smell people's feet or serve the table...??
the job keeper skin is good intention but bad outcome at first place. not sure how Govt. gonna change it????? unsure.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2020, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

Westpac Banking Corporation announces a fully-underwritten offer of approximately 31
million Pendal Group Limited (ASX:PDL) (Pendal) shares (which is circa 9.5% of Pendal's
shares on issue) (the Offer) to institutional investors domiciled in Australia and other
relevant jurisdictions1
. This announcement is consistent with Westpacs disclosures since
the time of its previous sell-down of Pendal shares in 2017 in which Westpac has indicated
that it would sell its remaining stake in Pendal at some future date.
The Offer price for the shares has been set at $5.98 per share, which is a discount of 4% to
Pendal's last closing price of $6.23 on 17 June 2020 and a 5.1% discount to the 30-day
VWAP of $6.30.
Finalisation of the Offer will complete the divestment of Westpacs proprietary shareholding
in Pendal, following earlier share sales in 2007, 2015, and 2017.
Acting Chief Financial Officer, Westpac Banking Corporation, Gary Thursby said: Pendal is
a highly regarded, independent business, and given Westpacs commitment to simplify its
operations and focus on banking in Australia and New Zealand, now is the right time to
complete our divestment.
Completion of the Offer is expected to add approximately 2 basis points to Westpacs
Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio and will result in a post-tax accounting gain for Second
Half 2020 of $32m that will be included in Westpac's Full Year 2020 statutory result.
Consistent with past practice, the gain will be excluded from the calculation of Westpacs
cash earnings2
.
UBS is acting as Sole Lead Manager, Underwriter and Bookrunner of the offer.
Settlement of the transaction is expected to occur on 22 June 2020.

==============

good to see the sell down, about 180mil in the bag, nice!!
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 17 2020, 07:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

give him hydroxychloroquine, then he will perform the way you like it H. tongue.gif

joke aside, he might think of things with different angles than before!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 17 2020, 03:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20200617-p553g9

Justice Jonathan Beach said although he accepted AUSTRAC would receive alerts about suspicious transactions it needed to investigate almost "continuously, it needed to draw a line under the allegations.

"I do think its time to close this pleading for want of a better word ... We do need to guillotine it at some stage," Justice Beach said.

================

if the court's ended jugement in favour of WBC it could spark SP up 10% in one go imho.

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 17 2020, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

University students bitten by fox
At least three students at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) were bitten while trying to pat a fox that was found wandering the Kensington campus in Sydney's east.

UNSW student journalism outlet Newsworthy reported at least three students ended up in at the Prince of Wales emergency department for a tetanus shot after they were bitten over the weekend.

"I thought I could maybe help it. So I gave it a pat and he chomped my hand," computer engineering student Liz Miller told the Sydney Morning Herald.

A UNSW spokesperson told media they were aware of "several separate incidents" involving students being bitten and campus staff were trying to locate the fox.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/sy...fox/ar-BB15zQbQ

==================
i guess these been bitten might want to bash this little poor fox now!!! wink.gif
it's best listen from the Uni...... lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 17 2020, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200 went over a little 6000 mark then sellers knock it down to 6975
kinda don't know to chase it or take shorts to scalping it today?? unsure.gif

what do you guys thinking?? i'm scratch my head atm.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 17 2020, 08:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

yeah... the trust is lost everywhere, the bad part is ---very hard to regained trust that've been lost!!

the funny thing that hopelessness calmed me down a lot last two weeks. seems i start to accept whatever the reality is,,,,,,,,,,,,

look around world----one worlds come out of me----AMAZING!! weirdsmiley.gif



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 16 2020, 09:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

people always try to tell me that animals better than humans. i keep telling them their wrong!!

but this link got me thinking.....

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/a-...zoo/ar-BB15wNnk

call them "lockdown BFFS" and let the adorable friends hang out together every day.

=========================

it's nice thing to look at in this ugly world currently------------------culture revolution everywhere around world
i really thought i'm not gonna see that again, but it spread out of the world now. weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 16 2020, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200 gonna be jump start this session after Fed said gonna buying corporate bond that sent Dow form nearly 1000 points lower before the cash market opens to finished up 157 points.

asx200 closed 5719 yesterday, the future is at 5875ish. short squeeze might push it over 5900ish then pull back to retest 5800ish some time this week???

money printing and die economic out look-----------
always challenge for marketers... weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 14 2020, 09:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

Bankrupt Hertz gets approval to sell up to $1 billion in stock but experts expect equity to be wiped out
The market dislocation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic has a new poster child in Hertz Global Holdings Inc., which has granted approval late Friday by a court to sell stocks amid a bankruptcy filing. See full story.


===============================

but experts expect equity to be wiped out

hmmm, what did you said Mick??--------ahhhhh, they are all smoke pot!! lmaosmiley.gif

the tech boom at 2000 all over again!! wink.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 14 2020, 10:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ru...kly/ar-BB15raX9

Dr Parker said it was "highly likely" there would be a second and third wave of COVID-19 infections in Australia as coughing and sneezing increased in winter.


We have good contact tracing and a very efficient testing system.

"The danger is when they start to open borders and we are susceptible to a third wave.

"We have a whole population who are still immune-naive. There is still no resistance.

"The collective body's immune system is still not aware of the COVID-19 virus, so we are still very vulnerable to another outbreak. We are very, very susceptible."

===========================

we going to get it or we unlikely to get it????????? unsure.gif

seems experts everywhere these days!! i'm experts on this too by now eh??!! thumbdown.gif graduated.gif
can we start that "me too movement again" but covid-19 experts this time!! lmaosmiley.gif WTF

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 13 2020, 09:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/cramer-thin...od-traders.html

He also pointed to the recent action in bankrupt car rental company Hertz, as well as Carnival Corp. Hertzs stock was up more than 50% to above $3 each Friday, while shares of cruise line Carnival were up about 12% in the premarket.

==================================================

it is a chaotic world out there.
plenty of laws but no orders as you said!!! graduated.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 12 2020, 09:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/sy...ion/ar-BB15nA9Q

In a social media post, organisers said they had moved the location of the protest due to "overwhelming numbers of police" at Town Hall.

===================================

Scotmo should teach trumpies---how to get job done properly without blood shed!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 12 2020, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

two big down day, that got people scared

market is juggling between central banks endless money printing and gloomy economic out look

if one still try to investing some cash might be wait for index down little bit more??? imho unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 12 2020, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

moving so fast that reminds me during the sell offs.

=====================

walks like duck ,quacks like duck, and it is a duck..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/stock-marke...close-news.html

Stocks suffered their biggest one-day pull-back in three months on Thursday as traders grew concerned about the number of coronavirus cases increasing in some states that are reopening up from lockdowns. Shares that have surged recently on hopes for a smooth reopening of the economy led the declines.

=================================

asx200 will open up big gap down with cash market...... to me it most likely will be stay in the range of 5725-----5815 and end the day on the lower end, only because it's Friday, not many longs try to hold position through the weekend on the face of this scary movement..

lucky for me that i took some SPX shorts yesterday. if i close out all the positions now , i can boost my capital to 1/5 of before....long way to go for me... i try really hard to crawling back to the level that allow me to have prop size trade like before.....but it is freaking hard................. sigh!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 11 2020, 05:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

because of smaller size, i be able to stick to my study with firmer hands.

add few more shorts with SPX it drops like stone with Dax atm. i guess after huge run up against almost everything , time for a prop pull back!!

moving so fast that reminds me during the sell offs.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 11 2020, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/au...ove/ar-BB15jFPK

here comes Fox news.................. then followed by cops try to crack down the protests... then their will be more riots
that is most likely results of these type of confrontation ......keep going.... wink.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 11 2020, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

closed all the shorts at 6100. i still think asx200 will test that 6020---6025 zone this week.

========================================================

seems asx200 have to go with the nature passway, it's future is at 6038 as i'm typing. it still try to find a reasonable range.
just follow the really short term trend and scalping few points here and there and go with the trend today!! that is the order for me today.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 11 2020, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/06/10/slu...g-on-in-the-us/


Central bank and government support also appears to have eased fears over some of the worst-case scenarios that markets were worrying about earlier this year. And central bank liquidity injections appear to have helped to support asset prices.

Does this mean we are out of the woods? Unlikely. Despite all the liquidity sloshing around, that may not enough to keep businesses afloat and get consumers to start shopping again. Revenues are likely to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future. Entire industries are exposed. Many companies are likely to struggle to afford debt repayments, increasing the risk of a wave of defaults and bankruptcies.

==========================

a retrace from current level?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 11 2020, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

A second wave of Covid-19? Some U.S. states werent buying it, instead moving quickly to end stay-at-home orders. Even those who believed the science behind the warnings said it was more important to get the economy going than protect every American life. Now, it seems the chickens might be coming home to roost: A month into its reopening, Florida reported 8,553 new coronavirus cases this weekthe most of any seven-day period. Texas reported hospitalizations jumped 6.3% to 2,056, the highest since the pandemic emerged, and the third consecutive daily increase. It will take a couple of weeks to know for sure whether this is the second wave. But by then, one expert said, its going to be pretty late. More than 111,000 Americans have already perished

===================

seems no way there will be shut down again!!! but if there is second wave then a lot of people will try to avoid public place in order to save their own life------that's gonna hurt economic even more, because there won't be rescue package from Gov.t anymore. i like it that way, because it rewards people whom live with their means. and a good listen to the reckless spenders. just my thoughts.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2020, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/la...B15gzGC、

Four Labor MPs and senators have been told to get tested for COVID-19 after attending Black Lives Matter protests on the weekend.

Queensland MPs Graham Perrett and Anika Wells, plus the Northern Territory's Warren Snowdon and Malarndirri McCarthy left Parliament this morning for testing.

They will not return to Parliament until they are cleared by the tests.

=============================

i reckon whole country should be open up now , as mass gathering protesting event allow to happen and there still no new case of covid-19.

just keep the country board shut, but let people doing their daily biz freely . IMHO

I know ....it is another day dream from my sick head!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2020, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

my brother loves Xi
most of Russian loves Putin
and most of the Hilery Clinton's supporters love Trump


this is the real world we living in Mick!! do you want to do "day dreams" like me?? go ahead and it's good for you!! lmaosmiley.gif

going to have my hair cut [ didn't cut it for over two months now since lockdown]

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2020, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/us-and...oud/ar-BB15gjMr

The United States and Russia each had more than 6,000 nuclear warheads in 2019, while China had 290, according to the Washington-based Arms Control Association.

France had 300 and Britain possessed 200, with India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea maintaining smaller arsenals, according to the research group.

====================
few months ago i had talks with my brother on this

i said " usa had all mighty military power that includes the number nuke bomb that is far ahead of China"
my brother said something that really stroke me ---" yeah, no doubt that on the nuke warheads number USA and Rassia is for ahead of all others, they both had enough nuke bomb to cover earth 10 times or more, chinese only had enough to cover the earth once, but what hell is different to cover once and 10 times by the nuke bomb?????"

now , i reckon Trump ask China to be include the talks of reduce nuke power is the right call.
something like USA Rqassia reduce 5, and china frence reduce one---------------something like that, also sent bomb to N.k finish off Kim jonen's huke base so as iranian .

i know it's just my day dream or wishful thinking!!! can't see it happen...................

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2020, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

future of asx200 just opened

closed all the shorts at 6100. i still think asx200 will test that 6020---6025 zone this week. but bullishness in the market and short of money that make me try to take any profit as i can atm
capital dose matter when you in short term trading game.......

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2020, 08:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/stock-marke...close-news.html

After such a ferocious run in recent weeks, the stock market was overdue for a correction or at least a pause, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC. Upside price momentum was becoming extreme and sentiment indicators a bit too bullish. Profit-taking won over today, particularly in those economically-sensitive area which have done the best in recent weeks.

================
i reckon that a lot of marketers think the same way, but market seems ignored all these, keeps up and up.
too much money printed by all central banks............. unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2020, 08:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

market seems calm down a bit. try to find it's range.

keep eye on asx200 at 6100 at moment. that down side gap for the cash market still too big to my like.

SPX try to have good pull back from current level. 3125 will be the support this week. if it gives away, then a size pull back is on the card given it's massive rally from last few weeks.

hope you guys can give some more study ,

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2020, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

pulls back to low under 6150----i took the chance to closed out 2/3 of the shorts. only have tiny shorts left to see if it can retest 6100 within two sessions.

funny that i can play this with ease.....i guess it's because i don't have much to lose compare before!!
cool.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2020, 10:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

played in you book nipper!!

still holding few shorts as i don't have much to bet on. short squeeze always makes you give up.......
see how it goes. i do have loose stoploss!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2020, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

from TA point of view, i reckon asx200 will retest that 6100is round number before it can rallying higher
don't see it can jump start over 140points and without 1/3 of pull back this morning session. imho

but we are face a crazy market atm.......be mindful!!


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2020, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

when the media try to feed us with the facts and truce been spined , biased to support their own goal , we are set to be doomed

that is what we face today, from righties and lefties......seems no one care about the true facts anymore

not like china, we do have "freedom of speech" here. but the main media use it to spined the facts to suits their own political views ...try create that "human bites dog" sensation .......

anyway, i don't have much to worry anymore.....just don't see the basic logic matters these days........sigh!!!! cool.gif



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2020, 06:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/si...men/ar-BB15cm7O


'It's a horrible cycle that continues and the ignorance is gobsmacking,' she said.

'If you wanted to reduce the rates of incarceration then you would begin with being honest about the fact that almost 70 percent of Aboriginal people - men and women incarcerated - are incarcerated for acts of violence against their loved ones,' she said.

===========================================

everyone is experts these days................

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2020, 10:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

you got that right Mick, i don't gives ...anymore
poor or rich all gonna end up in one place that will have no argument there.... very soon. sadsmiley02.gif

only one thing that still both me is that ----------why and how we get so close to this ??????????????
i know i'm stupid try to figure it out of the reasons, but that's me----always try to find out because and why!! weirdsmiley.gif

still try to trade the index as i type-------------with tiny position----don't know what's wrong with me!! thumbdown.gif



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2020, 08:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

agree Mick ----there is no order!!! thumbdown.gif

we all will be f$%^ed if keeps going like this.

feel the trouble just around the corner to us...........so sad!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2020, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV5g4kE6NvM

somehow i start to admire trump------------he is the one say whatever he wants to say and do whatever he wants do do.
to me seems he really live up to the spirits of " land of free......" in a shity way----ironicly!!

world is no "law and odder "at moment.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2020, 06:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200 is opened now, price has been jumping up and down with bigger spread
i stick to my short term trading rule----short it over 6100..........

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 7 2020, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

yes riane, i forget all about the long weekend......... lock myself at home all day everyday that made me not aware these thingy anymore. : blush.gif

thanks for the link ilane

i kinda think that figure has been rigged by trumpies............... i know it's crazy to think of that!!! lmaosmiley.gif

next week should be interesting !!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 6 2020, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200 future went as high as 6146, i took some shorts when it traded above 6100 all the way to 6145 then closed half of then before i went to bed.
that NFP from US is a real surprise. but still i made some money by my pair trade [short us market/long EU market]

comes to Monday we might see some pull back from asx200 when it opens after half hour---bit of tug of war i reckon!!

see how we goes !! unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 5 2020, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

seems asx200 will finish about 6000ish
less than 20 minutes to go.
man!! this is really bullish action that really surprised me!!

as coodeman point out of FIB retracement number 6100ish is the 0.618 of it.

so target another 100 points up there!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 5 2020, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

hope they do H
i don't like that jobkeeper thingy at first place as i did posts to discussed it. if my memory serve me right.

i guess most likely that money they try to save ...will go to other sector, not return to tax payers...imho
hope i'm wrong!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 5 2020, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/go...rly/ar-BB153tdO

The government has signalled it could remove JobKeeper payments early for businesses which have bounced back from the coronavirus crisis earlier than expected.

=======================

what a mess!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 5 2020, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/westpac-exp...20200604-p54zhu

Our assessment is that, while not satisfactorily focused before 2017 and slow off the mark, the boards response appears to have been appropriate after 2017, though reaction times remained slow

===============

after self confess then the conclusion sound bit of positive after 2017.......
still think it worth a good look at it's current price... but as my hands are really tight, can't do much of myself!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2020, 01:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

thanks coodeman

sharecafe dosen't have money to fix the things you are mention i guess.
it's ok that i fully understand what you try to tell me your TA .

i guess joules can't post his/her chart on the site, that might pissed him'her off. so stopped posting here.
hope he'she can come back here, we can have some discussion of the market.

keep drop in coodeman, the site can't just have Mick nipper ....eg to hold bag, we all gonna chip in----posting my "big" idea!! tongue.gif

i was gonna give up the trading after what they done to me, but something deep in my bone tell me keeps going.. plus if i give it all up.. what am i gonna do??

oil is a good bet to make big buck .and it is safer than others, but.......................... sadsmiley02.gif

i try so hard to forget about-----but i guess i'll forget it till the day i kick the bucket...

back to market

weekend is coming plus we will have NFP from US ------better take some profit after the big run up in face of big social unrest in USA.

take good care buddy!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2020, 09:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

asx200---------------------6000 this week.
now it seems will be trike today!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2020, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

kinda think of some thing good for trumpie

these protests is the best guinea pigs for COVID-19 re-opening. if this thing not flare up for next week or two, then trump can have best excuse to fully re--open the country!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2020, 09:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/wh...20200603-p54z1f

The housing industry will be grateful for the Morrison governments $688 million HomeBuilder package, quietly disappointed at its size and restrictions, and a little bemused by the new emphasis on renovations.

==================

sound like Labor's "insulation crap" that over 10 years ago.....

Mick and others what do you guys think of this thing?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2020, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

told my brother to buy some , if it hit the market.

crime rate in China is really really low compare to anywhere on earth, because surveillance camera is everywhere.
dictatorship , forget about so called "dem crazy, " or whatever that is. that is the way they lives , seems most of them are happy with it. unsure.gif
talking about adaptation !

as people say-----------every family have a shity story to tell!! wink.gif

for the currency -----------i would buy some as it backed by a legit Govt, although it is commie! speculate it, i reckon it will be better than paper money at least to say!!



  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2020, 06:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

please rlane
give us more details of these tech stocks,

or you can post it under each of code of the stocks.
i guess a lot of us do reading them!!
i for one who dose it!!


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2020, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

thanks Mick

AUD keeps up and up as i type. there is another catch for the fast rise AUD , that will put the pressure on our market as a lot of due listed large stocks that have heavy weighing----likes of BHP RIO 4 major banks

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2020, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

i kinda think it's about time to short AUD at current level
you are focus on it more than i do. try to get your thoughts as how high this thing can go for this up leg?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2020, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ke...ing/ar-BB14Vi61

i really don't like Rudd esp when he in charge.

but i agreeing with him with this point. aussies no need to bow to anyone in this world. stand on our own feet, look after our own interest with common sense... IMHO



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2020, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/bl...lia/ar-BB14WlhY

dose these people know that our current Govt that lead by Scotmo is the best budy with trupie's tea party???
i guess soon they will get heavy clamp down. 90% of so called "peaceful rally" will moghs into something bad if it not been clamp down at first place.

Arab spring....French yellow vast ....HK freedom movement.... list goes on....most of them all under the beauty of " human rights...democracy". but the results of that is life of everyday's people been disturbed
normal law and odder ---not exist anymore.

i really hope it will not happen here!!

i'm the one that chased " human rights, democracy" with the best year of my life that start over 30 years ago. tell you guys what i think it is now--------it's just a mirage. every time i thought i getting close to it, it disappears. i'm in peace with this things now.
not care of whoever is dominate , trumpie, commie, or lefty............look after myself is the way to go!!

ok, my morning rant. ohmy.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 05:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

now i found what exc said
I am mobilizing all federal and local resources, civilian and military, to protect the rights of law abiding Americans, Trump said, citing the Insurrection Act of 1807. Today I have strongly recommended to every governor to deploy the National Guard in sufficient numbers that we dominate the streets. Mayors and governors must establish an overwhelming presence until the violence is quelled.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-thr...1?mod=home-page

if he just shut his big mouth and deploy the army to end this riots quick and smart. than he has the chance to get re-elected.IMHO

remember that NIKE adds?? ---JUST DO IT!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 05:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/trump-...sts/ar-BB14TD3s

As we speak, I am dispatching thousands and thousands of heavily armed soldiers, military personnel, and law enforcement officers to stop the rioting, looting, vandalism, assaults, and the wanton destruction of property," he said. "We will end it now."
============

i reckon he is 100% right on this.

but----this article didn't get all out![[ it's problem with media]


the shit part is he said more than that. something like asking "private people to arm themself to hit those lefties" !
that's pit people of USA against each other . and the USA have really loose gun laws. asking for civil war or what????????? unsure.gif

he is gone mad!!!! i guess he will do his ass in alone with chance of RP to win the next election again.

what a world we living in?? thumbdown.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/202...op-news-videos/

Police chief to Trump: If you can't be constructive, keep your mouth shut

----------------------

the land of freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-...1?mod=home-page


interesting
Domino pizza is in the "over bought" bunch from GS . i for one always disagree that Domino is a tech Co. but after covid-19. seems markets have it the right. the share price move at least!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

market trend is still up

from now on that US market will under perform other major market ....esp EU and Japs market, no matter of the direction---[up or down ] so a relatively safe bet is the pair trade IMHO

asx200 looks set to flight again today, but i'm not really confident with it atm. still think of 6000 this week if market around world can hold up in face of the unrest in USA.

too much money printed already, and most of Govt. and CENTRAL BANKS gonna print more..................it's reality! weirdsmiley.gif
savers will be punished time again!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

shorts on SPX is under water, but made good bucks on hk -h share index[ didn't expecting that market to be fire up]
but good surprise i guess. didn't buy enough longs in EU market,

not too bad so far.... little by little i guess!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 09:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

took few shorts with SPX so far
will buy few longs from EU or Japs index later on!!

not sure how SPX can still stay above 3000?? thought it will drop 100 point when it's future opens! unsure.gif




  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

it's ok H

i guess i just talk to myself!! make more meaningless posts to make up the number!! wink.gif

"Peta credlin" i should typ. . a luuuvly luuvely lady who can have huge influence in this country!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 01:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/chines...ong/ar-BB14Qnb9

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi once called the violent protests in Hong Kong 'a beautiful sight to behold.'... US politicians now can enjoy this sight from their own windows," Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of nationalist tabloid Global Times, wrote Saturday.



"I can't breathe," she said on Twitter, with a screenshot of a tweet by US State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus that had criticised the Chinese government over its Hong Kong policy.

====================================

do you guys believe in karma????
to me it is funnier to think of a gangster point finger at a robber cool.gif


========================
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ab...ica/ar-BB14PBjw

The young blonde reporter interviewed protesters throughout the morning, some of whom were angered by her questioning.

-----------------------

why bother-----this is how this country's media acts spme loves Credlin type ......don't want to say more to upsets people here.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 31 2020, 01:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/30/protests-an...orge-floyd.html

the riots in USA getting worse throught he weekend.

come Monday

there is a trade will have good chance to win-------------short US market, long EU market or long JAPs market.

world is in chaotic and trump make it worse. this is the point where US market will under performing other major market likes of EU Japs.
IMHO

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 30 2020, 12:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/trump-takin...-hong-kong.html

I am directing my administration to begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment, Trump said during a Rose Garden event at the White House.

My announcement today will affect the full range of agreements that we have with Hong Kong, from our extradition treaty, to our export controls and technologies, Trump said. We will take action to revoke Hong Kongs preferential treatment as a separate customs and travel territory from the rest of China.

=================

market took this news well, and it seems not worse than they thought!! cool.gif

trumpie want to do this long ago------he can get more tax dollar from HK.
it's "chinks vs chinks" what hell is he care??? weirdsmiley.gif poor HK people will suffer!!

back to markets

asx200 will rally again when monday comes. i suspect it will reach 6000ish next week.IMHO. hold on tight for the ride!!

i had few longs for h share index [it cost little to hold them] .



  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 30 2020, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

my feeling is similar to these mobs, feel like to joint these riots that can release my own anger that trapped in me over a month!! weirdsmiley.gif

H
glad to see you guys get on with lives......enjoy it while you can.
i'm just a sad ass..........feel lost. hopeless!! wink.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2020, 09:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://au.yahoo.com/news/reporter-covering...-113232983.html

A CNN reporter covering the Minneapolis protests over the death of black man in custody was arrested live on air by riot police.

=============================

free speech man!!! lmaosmiley.gif WTF!!

it is a chaotic world out there. i just hope that USA CHINA RUSSIA ALL START TO USE NUKE BOMB... finish earth once for all. than these BS will be stopped!! cool.gif
yeah....i know i'm too dark!!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2020, 09:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

President Donald Trump appears poised to sign a measure passed by Congress which would target Chinese officials for abusing the human rights of the country's Muslim minority. In a parallel move, Trump told reporters he's preparing to announce new polices on China in response to Beijing's imposition of national security legislation on Hong Kong.

-------------------------

these kids roaming on the HK streets for few moths last year ----stormed airport , blocked subway, disturbed streets,violently . at trumpies or righties eye are bunch of freedom fighters that supported by CIA.
but the same shitty in USA is thugs , looters. needs to be shoot at..

i always say to people-----chinese commies and westen govts. their all the same. as english says----"same shit different smell"!! above is perfect example . thumbdown.gif

yep, human rights-----------------or what hell is it????????????????????

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2020, 06:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://au.news.yahoo.com/madonna-divides-o...-073916404.html

ha,, someone finally point out of where the problem is!!!!

looting-----------shooting.

WTF

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2020, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/trumps-chin...to-beijing.html

sound ----worse is yet to come for the market!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2020, 10:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

my last post says hit through 5500 then target 5800---6000 for asx200

now it is at 5800ish

the run up with US market is with flood of money supply , not economy. so seems that market will cool down, that might drag asx200 little lower from current level

my short term target for s&p is 2890 if not hold there then 2750 is the support.

as for asx200 5525ish is the big support. if it goes to there it will drag down mainly by the miners ---IMHO

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 29 2020, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

Mick holding this site.

i still filthy myself that i let my guard down ----blindly trust the broker that with me over 15 years.

i don't have much to offer for the trading ideas these days. only to upset you guys with my lefty views.
so i thought i better shut my mouth{ keyboard] just read you guys.

i'm gonna working little hard to claw out the shit holes that i'm in atm. instead of pity myself and wingy.
will try to post little more often with my "big trading idea". weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 27 2020, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

sadsmiley02.gif

not only CCP shows the true colours these days, USA dose it as well so as most of others.
the world is in a chaos, the confrontation is really heats up to a danger level.
worry about the fights gonna breakout soon!!

keep going ...till nuke bomb been used, and destroy the earth once for all. then we all can have a good rest----forever!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 27 2020, 08:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/...ity/ar-BB14DhOd

Xi added that it was necessary to make preparations for military struggle, "to flexibly carry out actual combat military training, and to comprehensively improve our military's ability to carry out military missions".

==========================================

keep going.................... cold war???? the possibility of a hot war is increased big time IMHO.
may be i'm too pessimistic !!!


  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 26 2020, 11:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

you hit nail nipper
i guess if keeps going like that we will all stuffed one way or the other.

i still try to claw my way out of my own hole. i'm tryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy it.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 22 2020, 09:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-moves-...20200522-p54vjm

the nightmare situation happens step by step.

that is what happen when you try to corner a animal whom with sharp claws and teeth.
when chinese dosen't have any more incentive to keep current states quot , then, first HONG KONG, next is Tawan.
and USA gonna intervene, then war break out between US and China.....then there will be nuke bomb......
bleak picture?? the possibility is increased big time now.

Mick will be happy with his gold and silver holding!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 22 2020, 01:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

nipper
why my IM box not working anymore?? i guess i should ask admin .
what about your IM box nipper?? unsure.gif

kinda strange.... it was working all the times before.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2020, 05:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

thanks for the support guys.
not try to pity myself ............... sorts, just feel should let you guys know what is going on with me been suddenly quiet .

the bitness with the event that really got me this time, because was hit by really unexpected direction. that really hurting....
not trading much last few weeks-----just to lick the wound and breath

anyway
i will try to pick myself up................ as there is no other way for me to keep going

i see you guys doing good, that is good thing!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2020, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

hi guys
Thanks Mick to showing your care on my IM box


reason i went quiet is funny one.


Nipper ,I guess you still remember i said i'. gonna smash my piggy bank to go for the oil. i really did
i calculate everything the risk ..the margin eg........ thought i got my self covered on every corner
you know what????? my CFD broker screwed me after i've been with them over 15 years........
i know May contract finished at usd -37/b a lot of speculaters lost their shirt. but i got my self covered .......
i don't want to talk about what i'm going through, still hurtful
Mick , i guess you are around farmer place a lot of time. next time you see a heavyly wondered animal hiding at back of the shade and keep licking it's wond, you just think of EB has been last few weeks.
it's not just money that i losted. the real punch is my " last chance to get myself supper rich again" dream been shutted by the least possible that happened to me.......

i will try to talk to you guys, from time to time as i try to recover [[not sure i could , after after what they did to me] sadsmiley02.gif

i love you guys. even i'm not always agree with ya.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 10:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

never shoot the messenger like you.

give you my thoughts
we all know months ago when a lot of countries close their boards, all get idea of lock down can do the job. the result of that is reduce demand of oil in big way.
my bet on the long side is based on produce price. thought if oil keeps low price longer than a month then there will be a lot of drillers bites the dust, so that will get demand and supplies to a balance level so the oil price will correcting itself to the up side. but -40/b on the eve of expiry day is really extreme, although i know long time ago that if you trade oil at chicage mercantile exchange you might end up with physical stuff that delivered to your back yard and you gonna pay the delivery fees. that is the reason that see traders pay someone to take the hot potatoes out of their hands as US run out of contango.
to me it's just technical issues. and it will force US shale to stop drilling in short term. that will get supply/demand back to reasonable ---kinda normal situation.

i smashed piggy bank to bought heaps more at CMC market at it cash traded under usd$8/00ish, now it back above usd$9ish. think it will pay me within two months time or even really short term.
i made sure that i have enough margins to hold it for two months no matter how low the price will go. just to make sure that i'm out of this trade with profit.

thanks for the info nipper!! i really do!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 01:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/june-oil-fu...tive-price.html

The May contract traded at $1.17 per barrel, after earlier trading at negative $14.04 per barrel, meaning traders would effectively pay to have the oil taken off their hands. As the contract approaches expiration, trading volume is typically thin, so longer-term contracts can be more indicative of how Wall Street views the price of oil. The most active contract, for June delivery, traded 7.29% higher at $21.92 per barrel. The July and August contracts were also firmly above the $20 level.


“Even as OPEC++ oil production cuts are set to kick in May 1, and supply and inventories should tighten significantly in 2H′20, the next 4-6 weeks are seeing severe storage distress, likely to drive wild price realizations and unusual disconnects, including supercontango and negative prices,” Citi analysts led by Eric Lee wrote in a note to clients Monday.

===============================

indeed , "Volatility. and a real shake out."!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 11:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coro...corded/12163538

It's the lowest number of new infections since four were recorded in the 24 hours to 8:00pm on March 10 and brings the total number of cases in Australia's worst-hit coronavirus state to 2,963.

NSW chief medical officer Kerry Chant said almost 3,500 people were tested for COVID-19 yesterday

=============================

only 4 case with 3500 tested.
C'mon, we will be there [to zero] soon.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

ok, my apology, forgive me guys. i'm might be too sensitive at this extraordinary time
i'm not as cool as i use to be. my bad!!


back to the oil price, something has to give, i reckon this time there will be more US driller go bust and they might stop over 90% rigs for shale just to get through this extreme price dive.
to get oil price back to usd$20 within two months is still a big possibility to me. but as i hold heaps of it. it's clear that i'm really biased .
so DYOR please. before you make a long trade!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/can...20200421-p54lm3

In less than half an hour of stunning trading early on Tuesday (AEST), traders crashed the May WTI to an unprecedented minus $US37.63 a barrel.

There is no price they can pay to store it, or they are totally inexperienced in this game and are caught holding a contract they did not understand."


A decline of over 15 per cent in the June contract price points to real worries that the physical stress will continue to reverberate, and will force a lot more production shutdowns during May than the ones announced so far."

"So today negative prices are the reflection of dire market conditions for producers, with the hope that demand restart before the middle of May and that the June contract does not face the same fate."

===================

cash price at CMC market is at usd$ 12.00ish, so i'm still above water, seems have to dig more money to hold them to make profit out of it. yoday is Tuesday not as sure as i bought heaps at usd$14ish. but still think it could shoots up in few sessions

had funny feeling that people here happy to see me lose money, kinda strange!! weirdsmiley.gif



  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

Virgin bites the dust

NSW vs QLD on that as well.............. lmaosmiley.gif
not sure what's next........#



  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 04:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20200420-p54lbg

This tends to suggest that Australia had a pre-shutdown Reff well below that seen in most other parts of the world. Various factors have been suggested – housing density, social norms and behaviours, warmer weather, open-air lifestyle, quality of water and sanitation, general levels of health and wellbeing, availability and quality of health care – which no doubt will be the subject of countless future research papers by epidemiologists.
---------------- that's lucky i guess!!

The greatest risk we now face is that community confidence has been shot and fear is widespread. This review of the past tells a much better story than anybody in Australia would believe today. The truth is we appear to have relatively strong natural defences to the virus, are well placed to soon restart the economy, and Australians should be a lot more confident going about their daily lives than they are at the moment.
-------------------------- i guess a lot of people have the confident , but Govt. keeps try scare the crap out of us. what can we do??? weirdsmiley.gif


if i see the zero case in NSW i'll walk out door freely, even i get fines !!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 01:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

nipper

isaw the price dropped to near usd$14 ish, and i jumped in added huge load longs with CFD s. we could see few more US shale bites the dust soon .
i prepare enough margins for the WTI price under 10 bucks. and hold shit load oil atm. i reckon 90% chance i'm gonna make good money in very short term-----time frame of one week from today
today is first day of front month contract . so we can see crazy moves for the WTI. if price to stay this low for longer, a lot of driller will go bust and brings the supplies and demands in balance .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 10:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/...&ocid=wispr

Health authorities in NSW have confirmed just six new coronavirus infections, taking the state's total to 2,963.

It's the lowest number of new infections since four were recorded in the 24 hours to 8:00pm on March 10.

NSW Chief Medical Officer Dr Kerry Chant said almost 3,500 people were tested for COVID-19 yesterday and said she hoped testing would continue to increase.

=============================

not far from zero......... good news!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 19 2020, 01:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12,852

https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/04/18/9374693.html
it is a translatted article

i hope some of you guys can open the link for the original one

https://www.flickr.com/photos/citytree/8767...in/photostream/
i can't open it without give my details ...............
should be good read i reckon....it is a guy from Isreal whom gave fair study of after math of this crisis what's gonna happen to the "new world" !! interesting.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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