Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

5 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

What are we Waiting For?, New Zealand Exchange Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Jun 18 2019, 06:27 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,849
Thanks: 2123


Which are more valuable: Kiwi stocks or US tech stocks?
QUOTE
The answer, as they say in the classics, might surprise you.

Yes, New Zealand's stock exchange is indeed the world's most expensive, just topping Wall Street's tech-heavy Nasdaq. The former trades on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.5, and the latter at 23.1, on Bloomberg estimates.

This tidbit is more than a mere piece of markets trivia to whip out at your next nerdy barbecue. Rather, it speaks to the reinvigoration of trends that have ruled financial markets since the global financial crisis; in particular, the relentless global hunt for yield. A plethora of central bank meetings this week and a major European monetary policy talkfest in Portugal will surely reinforce the idea that rates are heading only one way: south.

Investors have clearly been chasing this trend southwards for a number of years, in a more geographically literal sense. Offshore ownership of the Kiwi sharemarket has jumped to 50 per cent from 30 per cent in eight years. Why NZ? Because the exchange has a disproportionately high exposure to some very sexy themes.

Infrastructure names account for a relatively high component of the NZX by market capitalisation, Of the top three-largest listed companies, the biggest is electricity provider Meridian Energy, while the third-largest is Auckland Airport. Both offer that which is most prized by investors around the world: a steady, reliable earnings stream supporting a solid dividend yield. Meridian is even trendier, generating power from 100 per cent renewable sources, mostly hydro.

This renewable energy theme also helps power a lot of interest from offshore. For example, the Wall Street-listed iShares Global Clean Energy exchange-traded fund holds 11 per cent of its fund in NZ stocks (Meridian is its fifth-largest holding), third after a 36 per cent exposure to the US and 22 per cent to China. Granted, this is only a $US209 million ($304 million) fund, but it shows the trend.

The NZX also has a healthy dollop of high-growth stocks, which are prized in the low-growth world. The exchange's second-biggest stock is one Aussie investors know all about: baby formula company A2 Milk.

Then there is good old demand and supply. Compulsory super started with the Kiwi Saver program in 2007, and this has boosted buying in Kiwi equities, even as some big listed names, such as TradeMe, have disappeared from the index.

All that is well and good. But when the income-hungry money arrives en masse at the other end of the world from the financial centres of New York and London, are we at the extremities of an already stretched trade?

[An analyst] doesn't "see any reason why the favourable dynamics that have benefited New Zealand valuations will turn around any time soon".

That is undoubtedly true, and Aussie investors know this more than anyone. The Reserve Bank of Australia may have joined the race to zero rates later than its global peers, but it seems to have taken up the challenge with some gusto.But that doesn't mean Kiwi stocks aren't overpriced, even taking into account the favourable trends, reckons MST Marquee strategist Hasan Tevfik.

Kiwi stocks trade on aggregate at a 40 per cent premium to their Aussie counterparts. Adjusting for composition and comparing like-for-like between ASX and NZX-listed businesses, Tevfik reckons he can only explain about half of that premium. For example, NZ businesses operating in these favourable sectors aren't any more profitable than their Aussie peers. And if anything, the Kiwi businesses are more highly leveraged. This is evidence of some froth.

As one Aussie fund manager reportedly (and unkindly) concluded: by the time the world discovers New Zealand equities, it's time to get out of equities. Maybe so. But if there's one thing we have learnt in the long years since the GFC: cycles can go on much further than you might think.
https://www.afr.com/markets/market-data/wor...20190617-p51yi1



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
balance
post Posted: Oct 21 2017, 05:24 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,569
Thanks: 579


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 21 2017, 12:30 AM

With a NZ 1st and Labor alliance in a minority gov't mixed with the Greens guaranteeing supply , it will be surprising if they last a full term.



--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 21 2017, 12:30 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,849
Thanks: 2123


Both new sheila and Peters want to change NZ Reserve Bank to bring down NZD. Market did that for them, from 91.2 to 88.8 to AUD as soon as details announced

I think I'll wait a while before I visit - more likely disfunction will emerge with the new political set-up and we'll see lower NZ currency down the track



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 3 2016, 04:47 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,849
Thanks: 2123


The Mega Rich Have Found an Unlikely New Refuge

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...rs-of-the-world



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Shrewd Crude
post Posted: Mar 2 2009, 08:20 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 527
Thanks: 26


In Reply To: andy20020's post @ Feb 23 2009, 01:36 AM


hey andy... sorry for the late reply...

yeah your right... we are in a for a savage fest...
a downtrend in prices by 30-40%.... hehehe...

hey watch this link, real good

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldG...e=channel_page
cool.gif
.^sc



--------------------
nwe... and holding nge
NWE, more than just a play thing...
 
andy20020
post Posted: Feb 23 2009, 01:36 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,905
Thanks: 72


In Reply To: Shrewd Crude's post @ Feb 22 2009, 09:25 PM

Hi Shrewd Crude

I suspect any "collapse" will be entirely up to the banks. The banks are in trouble all through Europe, and heresay suggests that getting new money out of them locally is "blood out of a stone stuff". I suspect they are all backed up into a corner all watching the other for the first sign of panic to set in.

The Govt's receipts are down and going lower, bailout from them is unlikely, if not impossible.

It's a house of cards and nothings out of the question this time round IMO.

Regards

 


Shrewd Crude
post Posted: Feb 22 2009, 09:25 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 527
Thanks: 26


In Reply To: andy20020's post @ Feb 22 2009, 08:51 PM

andy,
just remember mate, that New Zealanders are in love with housing...
I doubt there will be a collapse in prices... but a down trend over the next Few years in inevitable...
cool.gif
.^sc



--------------------
nwe... and holding nge
NWE, more than just a play thing...
 
thirty8south
post Posted: Feb 22 2009, 09:08 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 53
Thanks: 6


In Reply To: ShareScene.com's post @ Feb 5 2009, 04:21 PM

For the purposes of air travel, NZ is about to become "domestic". This follows years of discussions
and demarcation between Immigration, Customs etc. The ditch will effectively become
an open border and trans tasman flights are anticipated to reduce by 30%.
Integrated economies?

 
andy20020
post Posted: Feb 22 2009, 08:51 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,905
Thanks: 72


NZX - My two cents worth.

Big sell-off tomorrow = short term buying opportunity. Take a few trades for a few percentage points.

The real big NZX drop is coming in March. It will probably be started by a HUGE collapse of the NZ housing market and the NZX will probably follow the Dow to 6000 - hope Dow can bounce at 6000 !!! - NZX 1800 - 2000 I'd expect by ??? mid winter ??? Guess there.

NOTHING I see in the NZX chart bellow suggests the pain will stop longer term after a brief bear market rally (??? if so ???) starting later this week.

The thing I'm going to wait for is double bottoms from tomorrow on stocks in a couple months time where they didn't sell off lower in the next NZX drop.

Regards
Attached File(s)
Attached File  NZXFeb09.png ( 13.52K ) Number of downloads: 12

 


 
plastic
post Posted: Feb 22 2009, 06:56 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 9,183
Thanks: 283


Lizard, are you still with us?

Wondering what your opinion might be at the moment on the market. I think volumes are getting thin on the ground, prices are getting trashed and with the reporting season almost over we will be able to see what's standing and whats not. I feel like we can expect a surprise but if its expected its not a surprise.



--------------------
What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
 


5 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING