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RARE EARTHS
kelpie
post Posted: Nov 1 2010, 06:41 AM
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In Reply To: watchmaker's post @ Nov 1 2010, 12:38 AM

Hi Watchmaker, You may well be right. However,if you read the next article posted by abner, it sounds like it's been writtten by some apologist for the oil industry, "relative abundance of oil" My point is that there's just going to be misinformation flowing into the forseeable future as everyman and his dog puts his spin on all this. When politics rears it's ugly head they all come out of the woodwork. Hence volatility until some overall picture emerges of the actual situation i.e. contracts

 
watchmaker
post Posted: Nov 1 2010, 12:38 AM
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In Reply To: kelpie's post @ Oct 31 2010, 10:59 PM

The difficulty with the article is that it could have been written by the ministry of propaganda. Perhaps start on page 1(in the link below), then re-read the page 2 link

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LJ29Ad02.html


I mean, the assertion below says a lot

""" China's father of rare earth science, Xu Guangxian, alleges that Japanese industry has already stockpiled sufficient rare earth inventories to tide them over for the next 20 years. """

 
kelpie
post Posted: Oct 31 2010, 10:59 PM
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With regard to REE's, This article puts it all in a different less xenophobic light with regard to China's motives. Japan could have the ulterior sinister motive and that aligns with The Pentagon not being too worried by China's actions

Note: Interesting that Arafura said they didn't want contracts into the future as they might hold them to a less than optimal price. Methinks that's just spin. Contracts into the future as LYC have ATM give it a good footing and countable $$$$ for when production gets underway. so less speculation ATM.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LJ29Ad03.html

Cheers!

 
Billy Greedy
post Posted: Oct 31 2010, 09:10 PM
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Jime Dines has been following these for over a year in his newsletter - he was also in early on uranium beofre its rise (and fall). Interesting trading opps but valuations seem high looking at balance sheets. Personally I feel its all part of an emerging markets led scramble for guaranteed supply of commodities. Will settle down at some point...

 
watchmaker
post Posted: Oct 31 2010, 08:34 PM
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In Reply To: Dave_vic_ozz's post @ Oct 31 2010, 07:47 PM

Given that the US store at least a years supply of their rare earth needs for military purposes, yes one could say the pentagon is not too concerned. However of greater import, behind the scenes China has revealed its colors to the world and it looks ugly. Indeed, a mere taste of what they would do when various governments won't cooperate with their views on how things should be done.

Rare earths are not that rare(mindful that China has about 30% of present known global resources), more to the point is the western world bailed out of this obscenely grubby industry years ago, leaving the door wide open for China to tackle the supply chain, which at huge environmental cost has now made them dominant. A temporary state of affairs, nothing more, because it was they who set the alarm bells off in Tokyo and Washington, and ransom is not a healthy way to promote this sort of dominance

On our own local front, Lynas expect to have a trial plant up and running within a few years, "trial" being the operative word, yet the resource behind this initiative is substantial. To be certain China own 25% of the company(in theory adding political strength to their REE position) however it doesn't take the brain power of a Rhodes scholar to find this resource will now be regarded as strategic to Australia's interests, if not the rest of the western world.

Sure REE is topical right now, but within a few years won't be

 
Dave_vic_ozz
post Posted: Oct 31 2010, 07:47 PM
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-30/p...-producers.html

Pentagon see no problems with China.



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My comments reflect the moment in which they were posted.
Everything can change, and usually does, without notice.
 


birnam
post Posted: Oct 31 2010, 10:29 AM
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Found this bit of news when looking for the footy scores. China supposedly wont be witholding REEs from the market. Whether it makes a scrap of difference to the feeding frenzy that is REE wannabes is anyone's guess.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11657982

 
kelpie
post Posted: Oct 30 2010, 09:31 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Oct 29 2010, 10:06 PM

Hi Arty "Check on a globe where NTU's U3O8 and REE resources lie, as opposed to LYC's"

Perhaps I'm obtuse Arty but LYC 's Mt Weld is 300kms north east of Kalgoorlie, NTU's Gardner Tanimi/Gardner range is 200kms South east of Halls creek OK. I'm sure your implication is that NTU's lot is better and if that is the case would you please explain why.

Cheers! Kelpie

 
triage
post Posted: Oct 30 2010, 09:02 AM
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I think you are all very brave in trying to make money from a sector which China effectively and totally controls. I know how they like to play when they get to set the rules and I don't think it is particularly enriching to be the punching bag. I don't have the trading skills of arty et al so for me rare earth metals as an investment theme has been sent straight to the morgue.

Here is a blogentry about China's recent de facto squeeze on rare earth metals.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/10/chi...earths-ban.html



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: wasabibarako  
 
arty
post Posted: Oct 29 2010, 10:06 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 29 2010, 03:01 PM

Good and valid points, nipper.
Thanks for bringing the reality back to our attention.

On the other hand, the charts have already shown top reversals for almost all of the stocks on yesterday's list of yours.
LYC attached - it hit its top a week ago.

Attached File  LYC_29_10_10.gif ( 18.74K ) Number of downloads: 26

I don't know whether it's true that the Chinese had an embargo in place that has now been rescinded - the two parts may well have been published at convenient times to assist "interested parties" in driving the prices up, and now explain (after the bubble is deflated) why the peak had been reached - thereby somewhat deflecting any idea of the game being rigged or orchestrated.

One aspect seems to be overlooked in all the "mainstream" discussions pro and con:
Rare Earths play also a significant role in military applications. While the Chinese may have simply been rattling the cage, they have certainly alerted some "thinkers" in the USofA. It doesn't take much to connect the dots and find an explanation for the discrepancy between, say, a LYC chart and one for NTU. Check on a globe where NTU's U3O8 and REE resources lie, as opposed to LYC's. graduated.gif



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
 


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