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early birds
Posted on: Today, 09:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/29/rar...-jumpy-markets/

China has blinked and rushed to reassure investors local and foreign that it is not looking to damage market confidence.




The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg both reported that in a Wednesday evening meeting, Chinas top securities regulator told global financial institutions that Beijing will consider the impact on markets when it introduces new policies in the future.


=======================

when comes to the $$$$$$, everyone gonna blink !! lmaosmiley.gif no matter how tough you are!!

that makes traders and investors feel little easier !! tongue.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Today, 09:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

can you guys hear the army steps???


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Army to police Sydney lockdown as virus crisis escalates
Michael Read, Phillip Coorey

The army has been called into Sydney to enforce compliance with the citys lockdown, as health experts warn that record numbers of mystery cases and people failing to isolate while infectious raises the risk of Sydneys COVID-19 outbreak spiralling out of control.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has begun to concede her government may not be able to stamp out the current delta variant outbreak and could instead reopen when vaccination rates improved.

High rates of vaccination will be part of the road to freedom, she said.

NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller revealed on Thursday that he had asked Prime Minister Scott Morrison to send 300 Australian Defence Force personnel to Sydney to enforce the NSW governments strict public health orders, following concern that too many people were failing to comply with the rules.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

educated guess eh!!! cool.gif


Here are the key stories on todays print front page:

Army to police Sydney lockdown as virus crisis escalates: The army has been called into Sydney to enforce compliance with the citys lockdown, as health experts warn Sydneys COVID-19 outbreak might spiral out of control.

Macquarie prepares $30b war chest for post-pandemic opportunities: The investment bank has warned investors it would reduce its dividend policy to target a payout of between 50 and 70 per cent of net profit each year.

Chanticleer: Macquarie looks past COVID-19 in tilt to growth: Change happens slowly when it comes to Macquarie Groups strategy, but a shift in its dividend policy suggests a bigger appetite for size.

====================

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/12-sup...20210729-p58e8l
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

AUD/USD had been selling off since mid-June after breaking convincingly below the neckline to 2 Head and Shoulders patterns (with the same neckline). The target for a head and shoulders pattern is the height from the head to the neckline, added to the breakdown point below the neckline, which was near 0.7745. AUD/USD easily reached the target for the second Head and Shoulders pattern near 0.7560 and paused near the 200 Day Moving Average. Price consolidated in a pennant formation and broke lower on June 28th. The target for the pennant is the length of the pennant pole, added to the breakdown point, which is near 0.7340. In addition, the target for the larger head and shoulders pattern is 0.7265. AUD/USD reached a low of 0.7289 on July 21st. Price is sitting on horizontal support. Could this be a bottom for AUD/USD?

On a 240-minute timeframe, price is consolidating in a downward sloping channel as it tests the upper trendline, as well as the upper trendline of the consolidation triangle (red). However, if price moves higher there is immediate horizontal resistance at 0.7409, ahead of the 200 Day Moving Average at 0.7589 (see daily). Above there, horizontal resistance isnt until 0.7645. Support below is at the bottom trendline of the triangle near 0.7325, then the lows of July 21st at 0.7290. Below there is horizontal support at 0.7240 (see daily).

AUD/USD was moving lower as markets were hopeful that the US Fed would be hinting at tapering soon. However, given todays dovish press conference after the FOMC meeting and the possibility of new bond buying from the RBA, theres a chance AUD/USD could reverse and move higher.

=====================

it's just TA study, or educated TA guessing!!, i kinda agree that AUD might see the short term low and bounce higher from current level, until 0.7550ish. imho
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The RBA will be less concerned with inflation and more concerned with monetary stimulus

Australia inflation increased to 0.8% QoQ in Q2 from 0.6% in Q1. However, the continued persistence of the Delta variant in Australia remains a worry. Although Melbourne has just come out of a 5 Day lockdown, Sydney remains in lockdown indefinitely. Therefore, the RBA will be less concerned with inflation and more concerned with monetary stimulus. The RBA meets next week and after decreasing the amount of weekly bond purchases from A$5 billion to A$4 billion at the previous meeting, the central bank may have to reverse course and actually begin buying once again to help support the economy.

On the same day the Australia released its CPI, the US FOMC met. Despite the Fed statement saying that progress has been made towards goals for tapering, the press conference told a completely different story. Chairman Powell said that were some ways away from substantial progress on jobs. He noted that they look at several metrics when looking at jobs data, but he also said that the 5.9% Unemployment Rate is too high. Hence, the asset purchase program will continue at the current pact of $120 billion per month for the foreseeable future.

===================================

as we all know this is vary good opportunity to bring back little bit of normality to the really twisted world financial system now , as inflation met all those central banks target.
but, what they try to do?????? WTF

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The NDX, XLK, IWF and OEF made new highs after last weeks bounce back, but their respective 14-Day RSI indicators did NOT. Those are clear negative divergences.

This isnt a huge surprise given how extended the momentum indicators had gotten through the middle of July: each RSI reading hit the mid-70s. At some point the pace just has to slow. That may have begun to happen again now.
Best case, this just gives the NDX (and others) now time to consolidate, regroup and construct fresh bullish formations. Worst case, a bigger drawdown could materialize. Well see it in the pattern work over the next few days and weeks.

=======================

big tech name looks ok!"! so as SPX , plenty peoples out there try to "buy the dipper" these days!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 28 2021, 09:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/a-japara-be...20210728-p58dq8

Moelis bought a 10 per cent strategic stake in October 2017 for $1.90 per share, climbing to 13 per cent of the register the following month when Japara shares were $2. By last year theyd collapsed to 39. You might say theyre cutting their losses, but it couldve been much worse.

=====================



again, it's all about timing and entry level!! devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 28 2021, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

and I saw there was a clamp down on for profit after school learning companies in PRC ... some down 50%

==================
you don't know how "after school leaning" biz are so badly affecting chinese kids , nipper.
it's horrible !!! the kids there can't get prop leaning at normal school time anymore, the teachers in the school asking and recommend parents to a certain after school leaning, so these teachers can get kickbacks......parents get no rest ---sent kids to get prop leaning after school time..... man!! no wander they got crackdown, went too far
that's how things goes in china these days------like to go extreme for everything!! not much of balance there!! imho ohmy.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 28 2021, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The ASX 200 rose to a record high overnight to finally see it break out of its 1-month range, in line with its bullish trend. However, futures point to a soft open around 7400 and its prior record high, which could prove to be a pivotal level this session.
===========

asx200 looks firmly in the uptrend.....
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 28 2021, 09:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/27/big...o-little-china/

Big Trouble in Not-So-Little China

Shares in Alibaba lost more than 7%, Ten Cent shares lost close to 9% and shares in Meituan slumped close to 17%.

The fall in Alibaba and Meituan shares fell with investors expecting the companies food delivery arms to be affected by new regulations guaranteeing workers above-minimum pay.



At the same time the government has railed against speculation and illegal trading of government permits, such as those oil quotas, targeted commodity prices for copper, aluminium, lead and zinc in a blitz of public criticism and worse including arrests and detention of leading business figures.

With that background, stockmarkets in China and Hong Kong have been sagging as local and foreign investors fear further arbitrary attacks and actions from the Communist Party directed mainland government.

Its no wonder that investors are getting concerned and selling.

=============================

loved headline-----------not so little china!! lmaosmiley.gif
china grown from little teenage boy to a big strong adolescence now, but don't know how to behave himself for others...... IMHO though!! ohmy.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 28 2021, 04:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The SPX logged its fifth straight advance on Monday, which has arrived within a month of the seven-day advance from 6/24 7/2.
There have been various clusters of five-day winning streaks since 2009.



Years in which the SPX had clusters of five-day winning streaks: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009



Years in which clusters of five-day winning streaks did NOT occur: 2018, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011

In other words, MULTIPLE long winning streaks only occurred in years that the SPX experienced long periods of uptrending price action. The more volatile years had trouble establishing consistent demand, thus, long winning streaks rarely appeared.
Post March20, its safe to say that the index has been in an uptrend once again. And while we know it wont persist like this forever, clusters of five-day winning streaks have not led to immediate market crashes since the 2009 market lows.
=================================

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2021, 08:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20210727-p58dbv

Sydney lockdown to be extended by a month


Construction is expected to be allowed to resume from Saturday and new singles bubbles could be introduced for people who live alone.

=====================

another month, oh well!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2021, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

even at 1.20, that will make good money for me as i bought them really low.

1.40?? certainly a lot better!! lmaosmiley.gif

thanks nipper. it's all about the timing and entry level i guess!!

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2021, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

FY 2021 production and capex guidance maintained
On track to deliver full year 2021 production and capex guidance
Successful completion of PNG LNG major maintenance works, ahead of schedule
Q2 2021 operating revenue up 21.5% from Q1 2021
Second quarter operating revenue of US$366.2 million, up 21.5% from Q1 2021
Oil production from operated fields was up 4.6% from Q1 2021, driven by performance of Moran
Delivered a solid quarter of non-operated production, PNG LNG production averaged 8.0 MTPA (gross)
Total production of 6.6 mmboe, down 4.1% from Q1 2021, impacted by planned maintenance works
Papua LNG and Pikka oil development progressing as planned
Papua LNG technical, commercial and financing work underway in Q2 2021
Pikka project FEED continues, FID subject to appropriate risk allocation and funding
Extensive uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine among PNG workforce
No COVID-19 cases to date in Oil Search PNG field operations
Oil Search continues to assist PNG Government COVID-19 response through dedicated PNG industry task
force with supply chain and logistics as requested
Strong operating cashflows enabled continued debt repayments
US$1.2 billion total liquidity (US$504 million cash, US$697 million undrawn credit facilities)
Net debt reduced 5.3% compared to March 2021

=================

the debt level still little high for me , but looks manageable . under 4 bucks is screaming buy to me . ohmy.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2021, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

1.40 is the final!! witch is good for me,

gonna move to EHE, due to virus breakout, it's SP been hit again. but aging population problem won't change!! imho

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2021, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

AUD/USD dipped below 0.7350 overnight yet later recovered on the bac of the weaker dollar to form either a bullish hammer, or hanging man candle. A break either side of yesterdays range will confirm which reversal candle it may be but, if it breaks higher, take note of resistance around 0.7400 (round number and September 2020 high).

================= i

it's just TA studies . DYOR as always!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2021, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

so it is 1.20 the final??

not too bad for me!! tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2021, 09:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/26/inf...-friend-or-foe/

Inflation: Friend or Foe?

Governments like a bit of inflation. Central banks think they can achieve it. Its the rest of us who will have to deal with the consequences if they cant. lmaosmiley.gif

======================================

so true!!

i only can think of words
"be careful what you wish for"

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 27 2021, 09:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/26/dra...arkets-for-six/

Dragons Tail Whacks Asian Markets for Six

The CSI 300 which contains the top blue chips of Chinas Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell 3.2% to a level not seen since last December. It was down 4.4% at one stage and is now down more than 6% for the year so far.

The Shanghai market lost 2.4% (and is down 1% for the year so far) and Hong Kongs Hang Seng shed close to 4% in value at one stage ended the day down 3.5%. The Hang Seng has lost close to 4% so far this year with most of that loss coming on Monday.

=========================

chinese commies gonna tighten up for those big tech name, but that is not main cause , i reckon it is due to US and CHINA ---the second time meeting didn't go well, so marketers with "get out first , ask question later", also a punishment for the commies, they are still poor can't defend they are financial system!! imho though.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 26 2021, 11:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

34% of the SPX and 38% of the NDX are reporting over the next five days, with many of these components being held by both indices 33 in total.



2

The focus will be on those high profiled shared names. The reason is obvious those 33 largely have been responsible for the extension of the Large Cap Growth space and its clear relative strength over the last few months. Clearly, the reactions to earnings will tell the story this week, with the obvious question being how much of a good number is already priced in for many of the biggest names.



3
The NDX just logged its ninth weekly advance in the last 10 weeks, which prompted overbought readings in both its 14-Day AND Weekly RSI indicators as of Fridays close.



4
27% of the NDXs stocks now above their Upper Bollinger Bands (UBB), as well, the highest % since early April. The number got even higher over the last year and a half a few times, but the NDX, itself, was lower in the near future each time. This suggests that the short-term risk-reward scenario is challenging again now.

===========================

SPX keeps going, so as whole US market. so bullish from chart point of view!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 26 2021, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/25/dia...ngs-gotta-give/

According to Moodys, Wednesday will see a 3% annual inflation rate for the June 30 financial year while a forecast of 3.9% has come the AMPs chief economist, Shane Oliver.


=================================

it's from our own sharecafe

don't think RBA will tightening in near future...as every other central banks keep printing day and night.. weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 25 2021, 05:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied strongly off 50-DMA support early this week before gapping back to new all-time highs on Friday. Both are now pushing back toward their respective upper channel lines, which are above 4,500 on the S&P 500 and 15,100 on the Nasdaq. Support is again the rising 10- and 21-DMA. The distribution day count declined to four and three, respectively, with no further expiration for two weeks.



Retail, Health Care, and Technology continue to lead, gaining 1-3% each and rallying back to all-time highs. Lagging sectors, including Transportation and Consumer Cyclical, also fared well, rallying ~2% each off 200-DMA support. Conversely, Consumer Staple, Basic Material, and Utility lagged, trading relatively flat for the week. The best performing industry groups this week included Apparel, Restaurants, Auto Parts, Semiconductors, Software, Internet, and Hospitals. The worst performing groups included Beverages, Long-term Care, Containers/Packaging, Banks, and Miners. 54% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA and 86% are trading above their respective 200-DMA, compared with 47% and 86%, respectively, last week. 71% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA, compared with 68% last week.



We maintain a positive view of the overall market with indices back at new highs with declining distribution and a multitude of high-quality growth ideas breaking out to new price highs. Continue to increase risk in high relative strength ideas as they emerge from constructive consolidation ideally in heavy volume. Remain patient with ideas lagging within consolidation and reduce risk in ideas breaking key levels of price or moving average support.

======================

from O'Neil ......
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 25 2021, 05:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20210721-p58brg

I think Catherine [Bennett] is underestimating things. Experts do have differing opinions.

While some of the experts seek attention, others dont embrace it. MacIntyre says she began avoiding interviews a year ago when they started overwhelming her work, which she regards as the search for truth in a confusing world.

I did not expect to become so well-known in the general community, she says. I do not speak about anything I have no knowledge of.

Science is science, and provides some objective reference point against which commentary should be measured.

===========================

here you go nipper!! look at "10 most quoted experts view on a vaccination target" table

everyone have their own idea, keep going....... lmaosmiley.gif

mark my words-----" CAN OF WORMS" lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 24 2021, 04:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/trust-...lity/ar-AAMubOa

Translating this to our present dreary, locked down situation, the evidence suggests that lockdowns work, governments need to govern, vaccines also work and libertarianism is not suited to the times.

===================

this article seems open up can of worms ... : cool.gif

my two bobs

everything have their both sides-----good and bad-------it's just matter of trade offs!! tongue.gif imho though!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 24 2021, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/a-...-nsw/ar-AAMu32w


There have been 163 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in NSW in the last day, a major spike since yesterday and a new daily record.

Of those, 66 were household contacts and 45 were infectious in the community.

There were more than 93,000 test results received, another record.

==================

can you guys hear the army steps??? i do!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 24 2021, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/they-...inks/ar-AAMu32w

"They have got to find those links causing the transmission to spread across households and between households," Dr Bennett told Today.

"So, once they can close those down, you can actually break one transmission link, you can actually see 20 less cases the next week."


===========================
bit of more death from the virus will do the job i reckon!!! lmaosmiley.gif [ that will scared those outlaw peoples to obey the lockdown laws]

==================
After National Cabinet on Friday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said NSW would not be getting any extra supply of the Pfizer vaccine to curb its outbreak, but second doses may be delayed so more people can get their first jab.

People should now wait six weeks, rather than three.

===================

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 24 2021, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged Congress to act quickly to raise the debt ceiling and avert a payment default that could happen this fall. Data shows that the European recovery could be at risk from so-called reopening inflation. Heres your markets wrap.

=====================
weirdsmiley.gif same old tricks that works all the time..............well , until it's not!!
keep printing!!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2021, 11:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Three days into the week and weve seen a 1% decline, a 1% gain, a bearish pattern triggered, a bearish pattern negated, a bullish pattern threatened, the 50 Day MA successfully tested and a key uptrend line respected.



2

Indicator-wise, the 14-Day RSI held in the low 40s again. And while the odds suggest an eventual return to overbought territory at some point, if the same pace is repeated from earlier this year, that may take a bit longer to play out.



3
The Williams %R indicator, however, gets pushed around with more ease on big moves. And thats nearly back to overbought already. This may mean things could slow down again over the short-term, too



4
From a pattern perspective, it was close, but the most recent breakout held again. The 4,460-target now is just 2.3% away.



5

There were a number of marginal head fakes in March, May and June before those patterns worked.

If the action repeats what weve seen over the last few months, another trustworthy breakout may take some time to materialize.



6

So far, the back and forth price action has continued to fit into the YTD upward sloping channel. That, too, was threatened on Monday but never gave way.



7

If/when the SPX does make new highs again, wed like to see the Cumulative Adv-Dec Line breakout, too, at relatively the same time. The last two days have helped, which was especially important after last weeks 70% negative reading and this Mondays 15% day.

======================================

so. SPX gonna targeting 4600ish!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2021, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://au.yahoo.com/news/man-44-and-woman-...-042234900.html

The Therapeutic Goods Administration says it was notified this week the 48-year-old woman suffered confirmed thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) and died after receiving her first dose.

A 44-year-old man from Tasmania suffered the same fate. He is the youngest Australian to die from TTS stemming the AstraZeneca jab.

"We extend our sincere condolences to their families and loved ones," the national medicines regulator wrote in its weekly safety report on Thursday.

=============================

another two bites the dust!! come on AZ.!!! weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2021, 11:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/south-...20210722-p58bu3

Fact daily case numbers arent in 1000s should be a comfort: Berejiklian
Finbar O'Mallon

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian points to overseas where countries are seeing thousands and thousands of daily cases.

She says thats what the current lockdown was brought in to prevent.NSW recorded 124 new local cases today.

I dont like that number but the fact that its not thousands should give us a degree of comfort because thats what it would have been, Ms Berejiklian says.

We will never know the alternate number.What we do know is that we have prevented thousands and thousands of people getting the virus.

=======================

so, we should be happy that the case number is 124 not in thousands . WTF weirdsmiley.gif
the fact is most of peoples living in fears!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! because of NSW Govt's " live with covid".......
if they locked down one week earlier, we might be able to get out of it by end of this month...... sadsmiley02.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2021, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

South32 has revealed plans to write-down nearly $A1 billion worth of value from its Illawarra hard coking coal export business in its 2020-21 annual results next month.

The company revealed the planned write-off in its June quarterly report, released on Wednesday.

The company said it will book a pre-tax $US728 million ($989.6 million) impairment on the value of its Illawarra Metallurgical Coal which operates two hard coking coal mines south of Sydney.

The impairment decision comes after the NSW government rejected South32s application to extend its mine the Dendrobium Next Domain coal mine project due to concerns about irreversible environmental damage and potential pollution of Sydneys drinking water.

The Illawarra business produced less coal than the company was expecting due to challenging strata conditions at our Appin mine in the June quarter.

It also completed a longwall move during that quarter and plans three more longwall moves in 2021-22.

The write-down will take some of the gloss off what was a good year for the miner.

The quarterly report revealed strong alumina, zinc, nickel and manganese production during the three months ending on 30 June.

During the year we achieved production records at Worsley Alumina, Brazil Alumina and Australia Manganese,″ CEO Graham Kerr said in the report.

In the full year, alumina production was up 2%, metallurgical coal production increased 11%, lead production was up 19%, and silver production jumped 16%.

But thermal coal production dropped 19% with a substantial drop in coal production in the final quarter, and nickel production fell 16% despite strong production volumes in the final quarter.

South32 also divested its South32 SA Coal Holdings to Seriti Resources at a loss of $US160 million, as part of its target of reducing carbon emissions by 50% by 2035. The sale to Seriti also includes a $US200 million rehabilitation fund for the mines and other facilities.

South32 has returned $US346 million to shareholders through an on-market buy-back totalling 172 million shares. $225 million worth of capacity remains in the $US1.88 billion buyback which is due to complete in September this year.

The shares rose 1% to $2.84.

======================
from our own shacafe

from TA point of view, it has to hold 2.78, if not ...then 2.50ish is possible for near term. up side ----it has to over come 3.00
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2021, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

market snap back from it's 50 day's ma

buy the dips still work, until it is not!! blush.gif
seems all time high for SPX [ target of 4600ish] more likely.

so as asx200. looks gonna over come 7400ish in near term!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 22 2021, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

In case Congress wasnt preoccupied enough, the U.S. is at risk of a default in October or November unless it raises or suspends the debt limit, the Congressional Budget Office said. The debt ceilinghow much the government can borrowis a favorite partisan grenade on Capitol Hill. Democratic senators have already rejected any attempt by Republicans to set conditions for increasing the federal debt limit, while the debate is causing angst for money market traders.

===================== from bloomberg

no worry, just lift the up side limits will do!! keep printing!! weirdsmiley.gif



  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 21 2021, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/20/dnr...elstra-why-now/

It has been a long, hard, two-decade slog for Telstra Corporation, a period filled with more losses than wins for the telco giant. So why is DNR Capital buying it now? Jamie Nicol, Manager of DNRs High Conviction Fund and Portfolio, explains.

====================
it is from our onw sharecafe, hope you guys can take 2 or 3 minutes and listen to the video ........
really similar to what i thought......only different to me is that this guys is head of a big fundies, and i'm only a tiny shrimp!! weirdsmiley.gif


but TLS is worth a to investing ......
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 21 2021, 05:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

As we know, the SPX spun at its 50-Day MA yesterday, but when the index has dropped back to (or even through) the line over the last year and change, it often tested the moving average AGAIN soon thereafter.
NO pullback (not even last Septembers 10% correction) has shaken the SPX loose from its uptrend just yet. And a major reason for this is that bearish chart patterns have failed to play out. There is another chance to change this now, as yesterdays early break below the 4,290 zone triggered the latest bearish pattern (target 4,185).
The SPXs 14-Day RSI finished at 43.7, which is near the lower part of its range since April, 2020. The SPX got close to the Lower Bollinger Band discussed yesterday, as well.
SPX: 28% stocks > 20 Day MAs: This is near the lower end of the range, but still is not extreme. The % got lower this past June and January and a handful of times last year, too.
==============

SPX tested it's 50 day's ma and bounced right back up -----AGAIN !! I CAN see shorts on the run!! [include me]
but the one day sell off that shake the "bulls" i reckon!!


as for asx200, . stay aside , until things clearer......
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2021, 11:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/oil-se...20210720-p58b6w

Oil Searchs weak share price combined with the leadership turmoil has caused investors and analysts to speculate that the company could become a takeover target.

The stock remains at less than half its value from before the plunge in crude oil prices in March 2020, despite the recovery in Brent oil prices to more than $US70 a barrel.

Analysts had suggested that Santos, or international majors such as ExxonMobil or Total that have interests in PNG could find Oil Search an attractive target to beef up their LNG interests in

The company, which owns a stake in Exxons PNG LNG venture as well as in the proposed Papua LNG project and in an undeveloped oil project in Alaska, said on Tuesday it has recently received a confidential non-binding and indicative change of control proposal.

Oil Search said the proposal has been carefully addressed by the board and senior management, excluding Dr Wulff, along with its advisers Goldman Sachs and Macquarie Capital and its legal advisers Allens.

Following that assessment, the proposal was rejected as it was determined to not be in OSH shareholders best interests on the terms and value proposed, it said.

===============================

if one want to investing in current uncertainty , OSH might be good place to park your cash.
imho the take over story just start, more higher serious bid is on the way!! imho
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2021, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/oil-se...20210720-p58b6w

As reported by The Australian Financial Reviews Street Talk column, the approach for the $7.6 billion Papua New Guinean company was from Santos, offering an all-scrip merger. It would have seen Santos shareholders own 63 per cent of the combined group, and Oil Search the other 37 per cent.
==================

The ownership ratio implied a transaction price of A$4.25 per Oil Search share, based on
Santos closing price on 24 June 2021. This represented a 12.3 per cent premium to the Oil
Search closing price on 24 June 2021 of A$3.78 and a

====================

take over.... bit of opportunistic?? if bid go higher might be worth a look!! unsure.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2021, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/19/apr...t-by-customers/


Key banking regulator APRA has moved quickly to support banks who defer or offer support to customers who are in difficulties in the Sydney and Victorian Delta variant lockdowns.

The move will ease the burden on the banks to increase existing loan loss reserves.

======================

step in so fast eh?? ohmy.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2021, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/19/hed...-ore-shipments/

Shipments to China in the June quarter fell nearly 13.4 million tonnes to 114.5 million tonnes from just over 128 million tonnes in the same quarter of last year.

The shortfall to China was covered by a rise in exports to Japan and South Korea in the six months to June which is the second biggest customer for iron ore from Port Hedland.

Japanese steel mills took 14.607 million tonnes in the June half, up from 12.31 million tonnes in the same period of 2020.

Exports to South Korea rose to 23.29 million tonnes from just under 22 million tonnes in the June half year.

Weak performances dogged the Pilbara based miners in the June quarter.

Besides the slide from 2020 from Port Hedland, Rio Tinto, which ships through Dampier and Cape Lambert, reported bad weather hit its June production and sales performance.

================
better find more demand out side of china soon.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2021, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The US dollar index (DXY) pierced its way above gap resistance at 93.83 yet gave back some earlier gains to close on that key level. Whilst the dollar caught safe have bids against risker currencies, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were again the strongest majors during a classic risk-off session.

Commodity currencies once again bore the brunt, seeing NZD, CAD and AYD as the weakest major currencies overnight. CAD/JPY fell -1.6% to its lowest level since early February, AUD/JPY shed -1.3% and EUR/JPY broke beneath the July low in line with yesterdays bias.

==================

seems AUD is targeting that 070ish for near term as virus looks flare up again around world!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 20 2021, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Indices: US advise against travel to UK
Bond yields were broadly lower as investors remained concerned that the rise of the Delta Variant will weigh on growth. Global stock market indices were broadly lower as investors rushed for the exit, which saw the S&P 500 shed -1.5% with all sectors in the red, led by energy and financial sectors. The Dow Jones fell -2% and cut through its 50-day eMA to a 4-week low whilst the Nasdaq 100 held up relatively well at -0.9% after gapping lower.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) is on track to break a 9-month bullish streak, unless it can recoup the -7.8% lost this month with the 8 trading sessions remaining in July. At the current rate of volatility, it is about 1-2 trading days away from testing the January low, but the 200-day eMA is also in the vicinity so there is potential for technical support, even if only briefly so.
==================

SPX is right on 50 day ma at it's current level, if it go under 4250 next two session, then bulls should give it up .imho

asx200----- the future is under 7225, more likely more selling for our market when our cash market opens, the down side target is 7025ish for near term.
if one try to scalping trade ---the it might bounce at 7100ish!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 19 2021, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

keep eye on 7225ish for asx200, it is sort of key level for investors and traders for near term . imho!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 19 2021, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Telstra confirms interest in Digicel Pacific
William McInnes

Telstra has confirmed it is in discussions with Digicel Pacific regarding a potential acquisition in partnership with the Australian government following media reports the company was interested in the communications service provider.

The company said the discussions were incomplete and there was no certainty that a transaction would proceed.

Telstra said it was initially approached by the Australian government to provide technical advice in relation to Digicel Pacific ,which is a commercially attractive asset and critical to telecommunications in the region.

Fears are rising that Chinese interests may bid for Digicel, bringing the nation too close to our borders for comfort.

If Telstra were to proceed with a transaction it would be with financial and strategic risk management support from the government, the company said.

In addition to a significant government funding and support package, any investment would also have to be within certain financial parameters with Telstras equity investment being the minor portion of the overall transaction.

Digicel Pacific generated EBITDA of $US235 million in calendar 2020 with a strong margin, as well as extensive network coverage.

===========================
so the govnt. gonna support TLS on this and there might be more support on the the way?? tongue.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 19 2021, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/huge-d...ance/ar-AAMikPv

Few pause to think that their phones can be transformed into surveillance devices, with someone thousands of miles away silently extracting their messages, photos and location, activating their microphone to record them in real time.

====================================

weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 17 2021, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

2Q 2021 Market Letter

In the spirit of Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes remark that people need to be reminded more often than they need to be instructed, this is a reminder that my quarterly missives are called market commentaries and not market outlooks. I dont have an outlook on the market as I think it more useful to try and understand what is going on than to try to predict what is going to happen. The future is about probabilities and the current situation is about facts and interpretations. No one has privileged access to the future and market forecasts tend to be about as accurate as calling a coin toss. There are, of course, analogies that can be drawn about how the current environment maps onto previous historical data, but success in that depends crucially on how the future will, in fact, resemble the past, and whether the cited analogies turn out to be the governing ones. The record seems to show that sometimes they will and sometimes they wont and we are back at the coin toss.

None of this appears to have any impact or influence on peoples unending attempts to forecast the markets. As I was gathering some material today for this market letter, I came across this headline in a well-known business publication: Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and other top investors are predicting an epic market crash. Here are their gravest warnings so far. Jeffrey Gundlach, Leon Cooperman, and Stanley Druckenmiller expect a downturn too. Without quoting every one of the eight investors views, here is a typical cross section: greatest speculative bubble of all time (Burry); fully fledged epic bubble (Grantham); saying the market was anything other than very over-valued versus history is just to be ignorant of all the metrics valuation (Gundlach). I have no doubt that we are in a raging mania in all assets (Druckenmiller). Then Stan added, I also have no doubt that I dont have a clue when thats gonna end. He pointed out that I knew we were in a raging mania in mid 99, but it kept going on, and if you shorted the tech stocks in mid 99, you were out of business by the end of the year. The others quoted in the story mostly did not appear to share Stans cautiousness about the risks of actually acting on predictions of a dramatic decline in stocks. I recall George Soros saying in 2008 that he had predicted that financial crisis. He then wryly noted that he had predicted many financial crises over his career that never materialized.

The always insightful Anatole Kaletsky of Gavekal wrote a piece a few days ago titled A Killer Wave in the Nasdaq Bubble? He noted that he agreed that many technology stocks were fundamentally over-valued, while many of the meme stocks, crypto-currencies and other Covid winners will prove fundamentally worthless. He correctly pointed out the critical issue from an investors decision about what to do:

There is nothing inconsistent about expecting further big gains in asset prices that are already fundamentally overvalued. This should be obvious to anyone who experienced the 1989 Japanese bubble, the 1999 dot-com bubble and the credit bubble of 2008.

I would add the 1987 US stock bubble as well.

What is a bit curious about the bears predicting an epic market crash is that we had one only 15 months ago. The market went down the most in history in a 4-week period ending on March 23rd due to the panic over Covid-19 before beginning the remarkable recovery we are currently experiencing. Current consensus estimates for growth are around 7%, the fastest in over 30 years. Earnings estimates likewise are being raised dramatically. Household net worth has grown the most in history in the past year. Home prices rose 14.6% in the most recent reading and housing continues to be in short supply. Real interest rates are negative and 10-year treasuries have been declining and offer the prospect of almost certain real loss of capital. The point of most contention is the outlook for inflation. Since I am not in the forecasting business, I dont have a view. I do observe that prices across a broad sweep of the economy are rising the fastest in decades, but we are already seeing sharp declines in some of the more sensitive commodities such as lumber. It looks like headline inflation this year is on track to hit 5% or more. It is important to realize that it is already well discounted. If inflation is going to be a problem, prices will have to continue to rise over the next few years at well over the Federal Reserves average 2% target. The bond market is forecasting longer-term inflation of around that target. A Goldilocks scenario if it comes to pass.

Inflation has been too low (as the Fed sees it) for long enough that most investors have forgotten the 1970s and early 1980s when it was a major problem. It is perhaps ironic that 50 years ago President Nixon took the US off the gold standard. During the post-war period through 1971 global banking crises were few. Since going to a system of floating exchange rates there have been many. Bitcoin was born out of the 2008 crisis and was designed to be free of government control and manipulation, to be the ultimate in an inflation proof asset. It is an open question if it will be an enduring store of value, with many strong opinions on both sides.

A recent study of inflation forecasts by economists, consumers, and the bond market found no significant ability to make value added predictions. As far as major shifts inflation go, we are all in the dark, just as we are essentially clueless about where the stock market is heading or the price of oil in 2022, or the date of the next recession, as The New York Times put it.

The worries that one reads about regularly in the press and in research reports are already priced into the market commensurate with the markets assessment of their probability. The market looks broadly fairly valued to me, with most stocks priced to provide a market rate of return plus or minus a few percent. There does appear to be considerable optimism among individual investors about their expected returns from stocks. A recent study by Natixis Investment Managers found that US investors think they can earn 17.5% above inflation per year for the next 10 years. Over the past 10 years, of all stocks and ETFs that existed over that period only 14% of them did that well and 22% lost money. Taking the under on that bet seems pretty safe.

There are pockets of what look like appreciable over-valuation and pockets of significant undervaluation in the US market, in my opinion. We can find plenty of names to fill our portfolios and so remain fully invested.
======================

bit of long wind, but it touched a lot of important things...like market bubbles , Cryptos ....eg
because of lockdownm so i had so much times to kill, that is why i took my time to read this. the out come is ------IT WORTH YOUR 5 MINUTES, IF YOU ARE IN THE MARKET! IMHO
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 17 2021, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Elements, Circumstances Undermine Rio

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/16/ele...-undermine-rio/


The company had to battle wet autumnal weather which hit its Pilbara iron ore mines, cutting production and exports; lowered bauxite output at its huge mines on the western side of Cape York in north Queensland; encountered growing labour shortages in the Pilbara; the collapse of a mining area at its Kennecott copper mine in the US and violence at its Richards Bay mineral sands operations which saw an executive murdered and the operations halted.

The poor quarter means that unless Rio Tinto can find a way to boost iron ore production over the next two quarters, it looks like disappointing investors who had been hoping for a small gain in output and sales or the year to December.

Theres a chance Rios production for 2021 will not exceed 2020s.
============

from our own sharecafe

here is my rough TA thoughts.
under 118 bucks, yellow lights flashing , if it get's under 115, then longer term player should keep close eye on it. imho

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 16 2021, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/rio-ti...20210716-p58a8l

Rios iron ore shipments in the first six months of this year were 3 per cent weaker than last year, suggesting the company is on track to suffer an annual decline in export volumes for just the second time since the turn of the century.

=============

but the ore price is record high, that might sooth the volume decline ........,
i'm attempting to give RIO another short trade at it's current level,
see how the price movement today!! unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 16 2021, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/oil-markets...uel-stocks.html

Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses as investors braced for increased supplies after a compromise deal between leading OPEC producers and as U.S. fuel stocks rose, raising concerns over demand in the worlds largest consume

===================
isn't it too obvious that oil price gonna going down, regardless of "deal or no deal" from OPECD meeting??
now finally they had agreement , that might put limited down side on the oil price
if there is still no deal, oil price might collapse as everyone pumping out oil as much as they can!! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 16 2021, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Last weekend, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that there will be changes to the guidance at next weeks European Central Bank meeting in order to reassure traders that policy will not be tightened too quickly. The ECB recently announced in its strategic review that their inflation target will be 2% over the medium term. The reason for the change in guidance: Inflation is expected to be over 2.5% towards the end of the year. In other words, they expect the inflation to be transitory. Europe releases Junes Final CPI data on Friday and although the headline is expected to be near 1.9%, the core rate of inflation is only expected to be 1%. If the final inflation data on Friday comes in hotter than expected, Christine Lagarde and the committee may have to reconsider their language next week. Julys preliminary CPI reading isnt due out until August 18th.


Then there is the RBA. At the July 6th RBA meeting, although they reduced bond purchases to A$4 billion per week from A$5 billion per week, the committee said they do not expect actual inflation to be within their 2%-3% target until 2024 One of the reasons for this expectation of such a long duration until inflation reaches target is that the Delta variant of the coronavirus is making its rounds in Australia. Sydney has been in full lockdown since June 26th, and the lockdown is expected to last until the end of July. Now, the state of Victoria is entering a lockdown of its own, albeit only 5 days. (Victoria was on a nearly 4-month lockdown last year).

=================
i'm not sure how many chances all those central banks will get, to tightening up money supply so world economy can back on it's own feet and walk on "normal" path , going forward ?????? unsure.gif
until something like "after pay " exploded ??? WTF
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2021, 10:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/us-...20210715-p58a2i

What the f--- am I dealing with? General Milley asked him.;;;;;;;; lmaosmiley.gif

===================

https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/the...20210705-p586ym

The uneasy parallels between Trump Republicans and Maos communists ohmy.gif

===========================

since no one comes in with political "yali yada", i'm gonna try to stir the pot!! lmaosmiley.gif



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2021, 08:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/oil-markets...de-imports.html


Prices fell earlier in the session after the two Gulf producers agreed for the UAE to increase its baseline production in an output deal that members of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, reached last year, an OPEC+ source told Reuters.

=======================

reached agreement of production rise?? market seems think there will be more oil and less demand in oil market going forward!! imho!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 15 2021, 08:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/delta-lo...20210714-p589m0

Delta lockdown will shrink GDP, cost thousands of jobs
John Kehoe

Sydneys prolonged lockdown for an anticipated two months will cause the national economy to shrink in the current quarter and cost thousands of jobs according to economists, stalling momentum in Australias bounceback from the virus recession.

The $5 billion in government support payments to businesses and households, however, will cushion the blow and help the economy to follow past lockdown and reopening trends by swiftly rebounding once restrictions are eased, market economists said.

The spread of the highly infectious COVID-19 delta variant, Melbourne on edge over the discovery of seven new virus cases and Western Australia restricting the entry of Victorians has exacerbated uncertainty over the outlook for businesses, investors and consumers.

After 97 locally acquired COVID-19 cases took NSWs total active community cases to 785, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian on Wednesday extended the greater Sydney lockdown for at least two weeks to July 30, taking the total shutdown to five weeks at a minimum.

The intensifying downside risks as a consequence of the virus lockdown could force the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider delaying a planned tapering of its $200 billion government bond-buying program from September to November, ANZ economists said.
===========================

but from RBNZ to some others central banks start to tapering,
i don't think they are aggressive enough though!! ohmy.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 14 2021, 09:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Oil prices defined the stronger dollar to rise 1.5% following a report from IEA (International Energy Agency) forecasting a tight oil supply. WTI futures rose to 75.21 which places intraday support at 73.68 whilst brent rose 0.6% to close at 76.44 and retest its broken trendline.
=============

my thoughts is OIL price will go down likely as OPEC and others failed twice for the meeting as to how much production increase they will have
that will lead to wild production increase at near future , thus will push down the oil price as the result!! IMHO

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 14 2021, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The Russell 2000 (small-cap) value stocks fell -2.03% compared to the Russell 2000s -1.74% decline. The Nasdaq 100 printed a pinbar reversal after failing to hold onto its intraday record high, effectively closing flat. The Nasdaq banks index fell -2.00%, biotech sector was down -1.09% whilst FAANGS escaped the pressure by closing -0.01% on the day. The S&P 500 printed a bearish outside day and closed at a two-day low, falling -0.35%. 10 of its 11 sectors closed in the red led by real estate (-1.3%) and consumer discretionary (-1.17%). Still, these are not terrifying numbers overall and there is plenty of earnings reports to mull over before we see if equities extend their downside or break to new highs.

The ASX 200 is expected to open 4-poijnts higher (effectively flat). Take note of yesterdays bearish pinbar which reaffirmed its sideways range around 7216 7370, which is basically within the bearish engulfing candle on June 21st. That said, bulls may need to wait for a break above 7403 before popping open the champagne. Until then, range-trading strategies are preferred between 7216 7403.


====================

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 13 2021, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/12/asi...e-policy-shift/

We think the larger than expected universal RRR cut is likely to reinforce market expectations that PBOC is determined to keep liquidity stable, which will support risk sentiment in the near term, economists at OCBC Bank, wrote on Monday.

Citigroup on Monday said the potential pressure on banks in loan pricing, credit demand and asset quality as the unexpected RRR cut May signal the economic recovery could be weaker than expected.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde caught markets by surprise on Monday saying the bank will change its guidance on policy at its next meeting and show it is serious about reviving inflation.

The ECBs new strategy allows it to tolerate inflation higher than its 2% goal when rates are near rock bottom. Thats similar to the new monetary policy stances of the Reserve Bank in Australia and the US Federal Reserve.

Fed chair Jay Powell is due to testify before the US Congress on Wednesday and Thursday and after the June Consumer Price Index data is released tonight (Tuesday).

Americas June quarter reporting season kicks off tonight with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs due to release what analysts say will be strong results thanks to the absence of the big loan loss provisions seen a year earlier in the June, 2020 quarter.

===============

from our own sharecafe.

it just shows when comes to central banks, no matter they are commies or westerns they all do the same thing-------print more paper money!! blush.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 12 2021, 09:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

On a closing basis the ASX 200 has been confined at an 87-point ranger over the past three weeks. Promising breakout patterns have failed to be confirmed and breaks have instead reversed, providing range trading strategies with optimum conditions. So, if prices can hold above the 7216.6 low then perhaps we may see another bounce back inside its range today.
========================

with sydney virus situation..... i'm more bearish than 7216 low. think asx200 might dip through that level. imho though!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 12 2021, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The dollars rally leading into Junes Nonfarm payroll report saw large speculators push net-long exposure to on DXY to its highest level since June 2020.

=========================

not so sure of the bullishness for DXY to me!! unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 11 2021, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://au.yahoo.com/sports/wimbledon-2021-...-213414875.html

The World No.1 became the first Australian woman to win Wimbledon since Evonne Goolagong Cawley in 1980, beating Karolina Pliskova 6-3 6-7 (4-7) 6-3 on Saturday to emulate her idol.

========================

something that makes people happy these days!! tongue.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 10 2021, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

waiting for the Novavax right?? tongue.gif

you can kiss the covid-19 if you think it is a con.
most of us think it can kill!! that is the fear most of the people have, and it has been proved by the facts!! cool.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 10 2021, 11:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Sydney reports 50 new cases, 26 out in the community

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/sydney...20210710-p588iz
==========================
thanks NSW polies ! both parties that got us here!
if they doing their job, we are not gonna be in this situation after more than a year ............ WTF
weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Jul 9 2021, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ba...mers/ar-AALVNdg

Customers who need support should contact their bank."

==============================================

nice cool.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 9 2021, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://au.yahoo.com/lifestyle/project-host...-223326754.html

Sydney is confused'

We all knew, and still know, that the Delta variant is so much more transmissible and she never adopted a stance that made it look like she was taking this more seriously than Dan Andrews was, but she had every reason to."

Lisa noted how PM Scott Morrison previously deemed the NSW Premier's approach to lockdowns the 'gold standard' among other states and territories.

"She had the Prime Minister at the same time saying, 'Gladys is the gold standard of how you do these sorts of lockdowns', and so Sydney has kind of been confused.

"It's no surprise to anybody that the [NSW Covid case] numbers are the way they are."

=======================

my thoughts is----- "where the hell of is opposition leader?? is that his job to attack this obvious wrong doing??""
think it is balance whom once said " the opposition is not countable anymore" . i think it is so true !!! weirdsmiley.gif

i was so upset when hear Brand Hazzard said " we might have to live with the virus " . i guess tax payer paid him too much , so he can crew up NSWs people from ruby princess to northem beach till now "we have to live with virus" !! WTF. opposition leader should come out to demand his head imho!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 8 2021, 09:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

morning nipper


https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/07/mag...-battery-chain/

Magnis: An End-to-End Provider in the Lithium-Ion Battery Chain

Magnis Energy Technologies (ASX: MNS) aims to become a leading global producer of next-generation green credentialed Lithium-Ion Battery (LIB) cells, enabling the future energy requirements of the world, the global storage of renewable energy and electrification of transportation.

==============

from our own sharecafe.

what do you think nipper?? should we jump on the train or it is too late for us?? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 8 2021, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

FOMC minutes: More details from the Fed, but no more clarity

Although inflation had risen more than anticipated, the increase was seen as largely reflecting temporary factors, and participants expected inflation to decline toward the Committees 2 percent longer-run objective.
Participants generally judged that, as a matter of prudent planning, it was important to be well positioned to reduce the pace of asset purchases, if appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including faster-than-anticipated progress toward the Committees goals or the emergence of risks that could impede the attainment of the Committees goals.
In coming meetings, participants agreed to continue assessing the economys progress toward the Committees goals and to begin to discuss their plans for adjusting the path and composition of asset purchases. In addition, participants reiterated their intention to provide notice well in advance of an announcement to reduce the pace of purchases.
Various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of incoming data.
Participants noted that overall financial conditions remained highly accommodative, in part reflecting the stance of monetary policy, which continued to deliver appropriate support to the economy. Several participants highlighted, however, that low interest rates were contributing to elevated house prices and that valuation pressures in housing markets might pose financial stability risks.
For those not well-versed in deciphering Fedspeak, the central bank is essentially maintaining the high-level view that inflation is transitory and there is not yet any strong pressure to remove stimulus, but below the surface, some FOMC policymakers are starting to question whether the risks of QE and low interest rates may be starting to outweigh the benefits.
=================

not sure of you guys,
to me FED's policy still too loose .it's just me though!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 8 2021, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

hi P
tongue.gif , you know it's good to be honest to express your view esp these days . i'm sure there are a lot of people disagree with it,
that is open to discuss here.
Mick is gone, hope you can carry on this field . i'm not really interested.
trading is my first for most important thingy!! tongue.gif

by the way , i reckon trump did few good thing---------law and order , wall on Mexico board wall. but to me he is nutty, crazy. imho thought lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 7 2021, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/trump-...says/ar-AALRyP9


Well, Hitler did a lot of good things.----- lmaosmiley.gif

===========================================================

not gonna call him "nuty" for nothing!! but if one honest enough, might agree with trumpie!! ohmy.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 7 2021, 01:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://au.news.yahoo.com/boy-13-dies-in-sl...-022720563.html

Boy, 13, dies in his sleep days after getting Pfizer vaccine

==============

weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 7 2021, 09:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/06/qui...pering-process/

The Reserve Bank has made a small step towards restoring monetary policy to a normal footing by starting the tapering of its quantitative easing bond purchases to $4 billion a week for the next five months.

Thats a $1 billion a week or 20% cut in the size of the projected purchases over the next five months.

As expected, the Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.10% at its July monetary policy meeting yesterday; maintained the April, 2024 bond as its target for the three-year yield control policy but trimmed its weekly bond purchases (or quantitative easing.

The current $100 billion round of bond purchases is due to end in September.

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said that the step-down from $5 billion to $4 billion does not represent a withdrawal of support (for the economy) by the RBA.

========================

hope it wont be too later when the times come that inflation runs wild...... unsure.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 7 2021, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

When will China overtake the U.S. to become the worlds biggest economy? Few questions are more important to the future of business and geopolitics. The Chinese Communist Party, which is celebrating its 100th anniversary, wants you to believe the rise is inevitable. But a new analysis from Bloomberg Economics says it may never happen. Margaret Sutherlin

==============================
not sure about economy, but for the dominance of the world?? i can't see it will happen in our life time---witch is over the next 50 years.
history shows USA push down Jap's economy rise at 80's and broke Soviet union at 90's with it's all mighty military power.... i can't see anyone can challenge them at near future .

but war on Taiwan is possible thing to me. that is something that worries me, if that happens , market will crash i reckon!!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 7 2021, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

think the oil price will go down as most of producers will lift out pup in a big way!! imho

i just bought some WPL OSH few days ago. have to sell them weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 6 2021, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20210706-p5875m

Westpac has sold its New Zealand life insurance business to Fidelity Life after shaking hands on a $373 million deal and a 15-year distribution agreement.

=================

fundies start to ramping my be loved stock!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 6 2021, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

AFR screaming for WPL for two days [ buy buy buy, ]

pumped up SP up more than a buck within two days, some thing to watch for !! ohmy.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 5 2021, 04:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/hopes-...20210705-p586te

Sydney must hit five and under to lift lockdown: MacIntyre
Jill Margo

Global biosecurity expert Professor Raina MacIntyre says it would not be acceptable for Sydney to relax restrictions unless there are between zero and five cases in the community on Thursday, which will be reported on Friday morning.

Anything higher would be too risky, she says.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 5 2021, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

With the RBA meeting and Australian retail sales on tap, its worth checking in on AUD/USD. The currency pair tagged a fresh year-to-date low around 0.7450 Friday before bouncing back above 0.7500 as of writing. More generally, rates spent the entire first half of the year forming a large rounded top or complex head-and-shoulders pattern; either way, its clear that the longer-term trend in AUD/USD has shifted from bullish (higher highs and higher lows) to a downtrend (lower highs and lower lows). Moving forward, the key levels to watch will be previous-support-turned-resistance at 0.7590 and previous-resistance-turned-support at 0.7400, with a general bearish bias toward that support level.

With earnings season and economic data projected to pick up in earnest after this coming week, its a great time to review longer-term charts and themes to ensure you dont get caught up in the day-to-day deluge of information in the coming weeks.

=====================================
use TA to trade it even for shorter term. think it will be getting wild gyration this week!! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 5 2021, 08:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Its a fairly quiet week for economic data, albeit with a couple of highlights worth watching. For AUD and ASX200 traders, Tuesdays RBA meeting will be worth watching, though Governor Lowe and company are unlikely to make any immediate changes with Sydney locked down on COVID fears. Well also get an more details on what prompted the big hawkish shift from the Fed last month in Wednesdays FOMC minutes. Finally, the G20 Meeting on Thursday and Friday will garner some headlines, though the immediate market impact may be limited.

================================

to me----- RBA will keep jaw boning "loose monetary policy" . thus , asx200 might pop up little towards to 7400ish!! imho though!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 5 2021, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/04/wes...pots-of-bother/

In an earlier statement on Friday ASIC said Westpac will pay around $87 million in compensation to about 32,000 customers whose financial advisers failed to notify them of market-sensitive information about their shareholdings over a fourteen-year period.

================

from our own sharecafe!!

hunting for last 14 years fraud ?? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 5 2021, 08:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Economics Wrap: Crunch Time for the RBA

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/04/eco...me-for-the-rba/

Moreover, the recent disruptions caused by localised outbreaks, although likely to be temporary, will increase the odds of the central bank expanding its current quantitative easing program by undertaking a third round of bond purchases in the coming months.

And the AMPs Chief economist, Shane Oliver wrote in his weekly note at the weekend expects to see the Bank ease up on some of its emergency stimulus measures but remain pretty dovish in view of the threat posed by the latest coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns.
===================
from our own sharecafe!!


https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/economis...20210702-p5868q

The majority of forecasters in The Australian Financial Reviews June-quarter survey of economists do not think the Reserve Bank will lift the cash rate from its 0.1 per cent level at least until 2023 but most expect the central bank will begin to lighten its other monetary tools, the preconditions for a future rate rise.

The simple fact is the RBA has significantly underestimated the strength of the economic recovery, both globally and domestically, said Tim Toohey, Yarra Capitals head of macro and strategy.

Su-Lin Ong from RBC Capital Markets said: "The case for some tapering remains despite the current COVID-19 situation."

===============

from financial review!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 3 2021, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Commodities Price Index Jumps 40% for Year

If you looked at the performance of key commodities in the year to June, its no wonder the Reserve Banks Commodity Price Index surged a record 40% to an all-time high last month, capping off what was a remarkable 12 months for Australian trade and the economy generally.

That 40% rise and the factors behind it help explain part of the Australian economy rebound story over 2020-21.

The RBA said the index reached a reading of 131.2, up from a reading of just over 93 in June 2020. The previous high was a reading of 123 in October, 2008, as the GFC was imploding then it was driven by oil and coal prices.

A 9% rise in the value of the Aussie dollar against the greenback over the year 9clipped in June by around 2%) restricted the gain to the still stunning 40% in Australian dollar terms.

The index reflects the 100% plus surge in iron ore prices (114% for 62% Fines), 84% for oil, 55% for copper, 38% for wheat and rises in many other commodities over the year.

But the main driver has been the surge in iron ore prices besides the jump in 62% Fe fines prices which reflected the rebound last month after a selloff in late May (after record highs were reached around May 12).

That saw the index rose 6.8% in Australian dollar terms in June, to cap a record year. A 2% drop in the value of the dollar against the greenback added a bit of last-minute cream.

The RBA said in its brief commentary on the index that preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal and LNG export prices are being used for the most recent months, based on market information.

====================

with endless money printing, think 40% up is not enough one would say!!!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 3 2021, 09:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/02/the...virus-pandemic/

Healthy people = healthy economy

Snap lockdowns work

the Sydney lockdown should have started a few days earlier when the flow of new cases was lower, but starting at around 20-30 a day was still relatively low compared to last July when the Melbourne hotspot lockdown started when new cases were already spiralling over 60 a day or the over 600 a day when the full Victorian lockdown started in August. This should provide some confidence this lockdown will work in controlling the spread of new cases and can be limited to two weeks or so. See the next chart which puts it into perspective.

Border confusion

Everyone wants freedom to travel out of Australia and back in, and an open international border is key to having a dynamic economy long-term, but its short-term importance to the recovery is exaggerated. First,

Covid is not over globally but vaccines work

Implications for investors
There are several implications for investors:

First, the ongoing threat posed by coronavirus and lockdowns will likely keep the RBA relatively dovish at its July meeting. While we expect it to stick to the April 2024 bond for its yield target and announce some tapering of its bond buying, its likely to reiterate that rate hikes remain a long way off.

Second, the threat from coronavirus setbacks is likely to limit the upside in bond yields in the short term.

Third, coronavirus setbacks are another potential trigger for a near term correction in shares and in cyclical stocks specifically. But if snap lockdowns remain relatively short as we expect, they are unlikely to de-rail the Australian economic recovery or the rising trend in Australian shares.

=================

from our own sharecafe!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2021, 11:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://au.yahoo.com/news/woman-dies-first-...-064532651.html

not sure how many people that died from clot that will stop them use AZ?? weirdsmiley.gif
is that matters about percentage ??
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2021, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Next few days critical: Sydney has 31 cases

Assume you are next to someone who has COVID-19
Lucas Baird

NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant has urged the community to remain vigilant even while in lockdown.

The message is please dont go out and about shopping in retail, in any setting if you have got symptoms. Stay home and isolate and get a test.

It also highlights the importance as people are moving around in shopping centres, please do assume that you are next to someone who may have COVID-19 ensure you are wearing a mask at all times, and ensure that it covers your nose and mouth, and also please keep your distance.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/sydney...20210702-p5864d

===============

just wondering after one year, [we had ruby princess, northern beach..eg] why we still face this risk of months of lockdown??? weirdsmiley.gif
please load , give us NSW people a break!!!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2021, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Since 1928, the SPX has been higher in July 55/93 years (59% of the time), with an average move of +1.6%.
Over the last 20 years, the biggest July advance occurred in 2009 (+7.41%); the worst in the last 20 years took place in 2002 (-7.90%).
The SPX has advanced in July 13/20 years, with an average move of +1.2%. And its been a lot better lately, with the index having been higher in July six straight years starting in 2015. Its been higher 7/9 since 2012, as well. The average move over that time frame has been +2.5%.
The 20 Year track shows a pretty consistent upward path for the month, which then typically has led to a sub-par August.
With the SPXs 2.2% gain in June, the index logged its fifth consecutive monthly advance. This marks the SEVENTH run of at least 5 straight positive months over the last decade.
Three of the prior six stopped at five. The longest monthly winning streak since 2010 was 10 from April17 through January18. In the 1950s, there were THREE 11-month win streaks.

The SPX concluded the quarter with its fifth straight DAILY gain, as well. This is the THIRD streak of at least five in 2021.

Since 2017, there now have been 23 winning streaks of at least five. Of the past 22, the SPX was higher 10 trading days later 73% of the time, with an average move of 0.70%.

===========================

they gave the stats , bullish as it is.

we might see some up side for asx200 today or tomorrow. imho.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 2 2021, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/technology/australia-re...20210701-p585ya

While ASX is updating its clearing and settlement system with a private blockchain, the CRCs prospectus points out this new world of tokenised assets will ultimately challenge centralised exchanges. The future will see producers and manufacturers digitise more assets and look to sell them not only through established stock exchanges, but automatically through any electronic distribution channel available to them, it says.



But just like any new technology, new risks will also be created. Some of the products are likely to be volatile and they dont currently fit neatly inside existing laws and legal concepts. As the OECD advised, operating in a non-compliant manner exacerbates risks for market participants.

======================

to be honest, i don't understand blockchain at all. so i sorta scratch my head for this thingy.
some of you guys might understand this thing far better, please , educate "old hand" like me.
i like to profit for this new thing [tech] , but don't know how??? sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2021, 09:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFkzRNyygfk

better gives proper grunge music, other wise people gonna hate me. ohmy.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2021, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Since central banks began providing stimulus after the early days of the pandemic, stock indices have been on fire! Equity Indices have continued posting gains throughout Q2, 2021, with most reaching all-time new highs. Q2 gains in our most widely traded stock indices are as follows:

Wall Street: +3.97%
US Tech 100: +11.20%
Germany 30: +3.56%
UK 100: +4.77%
US SP 500: +7.81%
But with many central banks beginning to taper bond purchases (reducing stimulus) or discussing when they should begin tapering, stock indices may be nearing a top. During Q3, July is typically a slow month as many traders take advantage of the warmer months to travel and go on holiday. August could be hit or miss. At times, August may have some volatility, especially near the Jackson Hole Symposium. However, during other years, it could be dull, especially the week before the Labor Day holiday in the US. Volatility usually picks up in September, with traders returning to their desks and trying to get ahead of what they hope will be a big Q4 run. There is also an important FOMC meeting this September traders will be waiting for. Markets will be watching intently to see how committee members will adjust their outlook on growth, inflation, and interest rates. Below are levels to watch for in our most widely traded indices:

Wall Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had been moving higher since the early days of monetary stimulus in March 2020. The widely followed US stock index briefly traded above the top rising trendline of an ascending wedge and reached an all-time high of 35,091 on May 10th. Price has pulled back into the ascending wedge, in what currently appears to be a corrective. There is still room to put in new highs without going above the upper trendline of the rising wedge. However, the DJI will first have to break above the corrective channel trendline at 34,500. Above, resistance is at the top trendline of the wedge and the May 10th highs near 35,091. Above there, resistance is at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the June 7th highs to the June 18th lows near 35,301. Support is at the June 18th lows near 33.271, then the bottom downward sloping trendline of the corrective channel near 32,890. Below, horizontal support crosses near 32,009.

US Tech 100

The Nasdaq 100 has also been moving higher since the pandemic lows in the spring of 2020. The tech heavy index put in a high on February 16th near 13900.5, before correcting in an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. After testing the neckline of the pattern several times over the next few months, the index finally reached the Inverse Head and Shoulders target during the last week of June near 14,400. The index also put in all time new highs on the last day of Q2 at 14,598.50. Resistance is at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the April 29th highs to the May 14th lows near 14,775 and then the upward sloping trendline of the September 3rd highs near 15,139. Notice how the RSI is in overbought territory and tuning lower, an indication that price may be ready to pull back. First support is at the previous highs near 14,075, then horizontal support from previous resistance near 13,773 and 13,416.

Germany 30

The German DAX has also been on the rise since the pandemic low, however, the market had a quick correction in October 2020 on its way to recent highs as price sold off from 13,184 to 11,645. After recovering in early November 2020, the DAX continued higher in an orderly channel trend. Price briefly traded above the channel in early April only to move back into the channel after a few weeks. Since then, the German index has been forming an ascending wedge within the channel. The DAX put in all time highs on June 15th at 15,803, however has struggled since then to make new highs. Resistance is at those recent all-time highs of 15,803, which confluences with the top, upward sloping trendline of the wedge. Next resistance is at the top, upward sloping trendline of the channel near 16,075. Support is at the bottom wedge trendline near 15,475, then the bottom channel trendline near 15,150. The next support level is at the May 13th spike lows of 14797.

UK 100

Moving over to the UK, the FTSE 100 has led a similar path to its current level as the DAX. After having a similar correction to the DAX in late October 2020, the FTSE 100 bounced and formed new highs on January 7th. After pulling back, the index continued to trade higher to current levels in a ascending wedge formation. All-time highs were formed on June 16th at 7,215.7. Price is approaching the apex of the wedge. The target for the breakdown of an ascending wedge is a 100% retracement, or near 6,315. Resistance is at the recent highs and the upper trendline of the wedge. The next resistance level is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the January 7th highs to the February 1st lows near 7,418.2 There is a band of support below at the Fibonacci retracement levels from February 1st to June 16th, between 6,645 and 6,859. Below, support is at the February 1st lows near 6.298.

US SP 500

As with the previously mentioned indices, the S&P 500 has been moving higher off the pandemic lows since March 2020. From September 2020 to November 2020, the large cap US index has been moving higher in a wedge formation. As with the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 made new highs at 4,305.5 on the last day of the month, quarter, and year end! The first resistance level above the June 30th highs is the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the May 7th highs to the May 13th lows, near 4329.6. Above there, resistance is at the upper trendline of the wedge and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 4,409.5. First support is at the May 7th highs of 4,266.7, which confluences with the bottom trendline of the wedge. Below there, horizontal support crosses at 4138 and 4035.6.

One item not mentioned that may come into play is a resurgence of the coronavirus, this time the Delta variant. Its too early to tell how this may affect the markets, however localized lockdowns and restrictions seem feasible if the virus spreads. This may affect monetary policy and in turn, affect global equity indices. Be alert to virus and vaccine headlines throughout the summer.

During the beginning of Q3, equity indices should pick up where they ended Q2, which is moving higher. However, as central banks continue to taper or talk about tapering, markets may begin to roll over. For most central banks, this seems likely toward the end of August or sometime in September (except for the BOE who have already begun tapering). Central banks are keen on jobs and inflation data and will focus on these in determining monetary policy.

===================================

it just one of many "educated guess". DYOR as always!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2021, 09:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Theres nothing like a capital return from an ageing industrial such as Telstra to get the fans emerging from the shadows.

And so it was on Wednesday when the telco snuck in the sale of 49% of its transmission and communications towers on the final day of its 2020-21 financial year.

The bottom line was a handy $2.8 billion from the sale with half of that paid to shareholders.

The sale was revealed late last year and firmed up earlier this year in the restructure of the company announced by CEO, Andy Penn.

The buyers are a group of local super funds the Future Fund, Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation and Sunsuper (managed by Morrison & Co).

The deal values the business, which is the largest mobile infrastructure provider in the country with about 8,200 towers, at $5.9 billion.

Telstra shares closed up more than 4% at $3.76, the highest the shares have been since January, 2020.

Telstra says $75 million made from the sale will be spent on improving connections in regional Australia.

The deal is expected to be finalised by the end of September, with the capital returned to shareholders in the same period.

The telco is due to report its 2020-21 results in early August and shareholders will expect details and timing of the return, incouding its size and nature, to be revealed then.

Todays announcement is a further endorsement of the [T22] strategy as the establishment of our infrastructure assets as a separate business was designed to enable us to better realise the value of these assets, take advantage of potential monetisation opportunities and create additional value for shareholders and that is exactly what todays announcement achieves, CEO Andy Penn said in the statement.

Mr Penn confirmed the legal restructure of Telstra early this year, which included the split of InfraCo Towers from InfraCo Fixed. ServeCo houses product and services while a fourth division for the international arm is also being established.

Mr Penn said Telstra is retaining majority ownership and will continue to own parts of the network including radio access equipment and spectrum. The telco has entered a 15-year agreement with InfraCo Towers to secure ongoing access to existing and new infrastructure.

Dr Raphael Arndt, chief executive of the Future Fund, said in the statement the investment added to its local infrastructure portfolio.

This investment further strengthens the Future Funds exposure to digital infrastructure and the long-term thematic of data growth, Dr Arndt said in the statement.
===================

from our own sharecafe!! i would trial up stops to see how high it can go......
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jul 1 2021, 01:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The SPX starts the last day of the month, quarter and first half with its fourth winning streak of at least four in 2021. The total +1.18% four-day move isnt anywhere close to the best four day moves weve seen this year though.



2

The question, of course, is how much more immediate upside can the SPX manage after ripping through multiple milestones lately, including yesterdays kiss of 4,300?



3

For one, simply getting TO a round number hasnt influenced a rush of demand over the last few months. As noted in Ten Tidbits SPX 4,300, last night: Of all the round number new highs that the SPX has achieved since first hitting 3,400 back in August'20, the only level that was NOT tested on a subsequent pullback was 4,000.



4

But what the SPX HAS done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along. Recently, its adhered to the middle of the long-term trading channel.



5

11 ETFs we track finished with winning streaks of at least six on Tuesday. While all are stretched, 5/11 of them (ARKK, TAN, XLY, MTUM, FFTY) still are battling key supply zones, which makes their short-term risk-reward scenarios challenging.



6

As of last night, about 19% off the index NDX are trading above their respective Upper Bollinger Bands (UBB). While thats the highest level since early March, weve seen this number get a LOT higher during spikes since last September.

=============================================

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 30 2021, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

nearly 4% up as i'm typing
main target is achieved !! around 3.75ish. but seems it will have further to the upside, tighten up the stops at 3.60, aim for the 4 bucks ish. [i know i'm greedy] ohmy.gif
that is how "run the profit" i guess!! tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 30 2021, 09:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-top-fun...20210629-p585d8


Williams sees Australia as caught between what are effectively COVID-19 eradication strategies in most states and a painfully slow vaccination rollout program. He says that until vaccination levels rise, there can be no national debate about moving towards a model like Singapore is now favouring, where high vaccination rates allow COVID-19 to be treated like a bad flu.




I think the days of panicking are over. The major shock of COVID hitting the economy has come and gone, Fergie says. I think most investors, myself included, just say youve got to look through it.


Vaccination rates are now the number one thing on the markets mind. Such is Americas success on this front, a Citi survey of US investors showed just 7 per cent rate COVID-19 as a major market worry.

==================================

JUST ONE OF THE FUDIES!! need to see how asx200 moves next few days!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 30 2021, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/telecommunica...20210630-p585gf

Completion of the sale is expected in the first quarter of the 2022 financial year and the transaction will leave InfraCo Towers with no debt. Telstra will return about half of the sale proceeds $1.4 billion to shareholders.


Telstra will retain majority ownership of InfraCo Towers and control the active parts of the network like radio access equipment and spectrum assets.


The remainder of the proceeds will be used for debt reduction to ensure we maintain balance sheet strength and flexibility. This level of debt reduction is important to deliver a broadly neutral credit outcome given the long-term Tower access obligations created by the transaction, he said.

==================

should we see a good pop up for it's share price today?? thought it is sensible way to release value of TLS.
of course , i'm biased , as i still hold chunk of TLS. ohmy.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 29 2021, 10:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

thought they lost a lot of market share to link market. is that true??? unsure.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 29 2021, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The US dollar index has formed a double bottom pattern at 91.5 with two bullish hammers (with the more recent one finding support at its 50-bar eMA on the four-hour chart). A break above 91.60 confirms the pattern and the measured move of the pattern projects an initial target around 92.30. Incidentally, this is right near the 50-week eMA which has capped as resistance for the past two weeks.

However, given there is very little in the way of news scheduled for today then its entirely possible we may lack the catalyst for a sustained breakout. In which case we would then monitor its potential for a triple bottom. Ultimately, our bias remains bullish above 91.50.

=====================
i for one not as bullish as this analysis for DXY [us dollar ], it just too much of uncertain things up in the air, that could push the USD around [up and down]
imho thought!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 29 2021, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The lockdown stocks play was out in full force yesterday on the ASX yesterday as travel and aviation companies were sold off but retailers especially onliners saw strong gains.

The banks and big miners held firm and helped the ASX-200 end with a smaller fall than seemed possible at the start of the day.

The ASX 200 lost just 0.7 points to close at 7307.3, having been as low as 7273.7 (0.3%) in late morning trade.

Travel stocks were under pressure as borders slammed shut on news of COVID outbreaks in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, and the Northern Territory. Webjet, Qantas, and Flight Centre all declined by about 4%. Rex shares were down 2.4%.

Shares in Helloworld fell more than 2% and Corporate Travel saw a 2.6% loss.

Those that saw rises were led by online homewares group, Temple & Webster their shares rose more than 10% as investors reckoned they might repeat their strong growth of the 2020 pandemic and beyond.

Likewise shares in Kogan jumped sharply up by more than 6% for the same reason. But it is already suffering from being overstocked so any gains might be very slow in coming, if at all.

JB HiFi had also did well in the 2020 pandemic but investors saw small gains this time the shares up just 1.2%.

Shares in rival Harvey Norman did better up 2.1% but gains for these two and Kogan are based on a repeat of last years strong surge in home office and working from home equipment and tax write offs.

You have to wonder how much legs the home office boom will have this time around if the lockdown persists.

Thats probably also why shares in Wesfarmers only managed a 1.3% gain, despite Bunnings and Officeworks doing very well in 2020.

Shares in womens fashionwear group Mosaic brands (Noni B, Rivers, Millers and City Chic) saw a 4% loss as it was hurt by the lockdowns last time when many shopping malls closed. Punters see that being repeated if the lockdowns persist.

Shares in Premier Investments rose 1.8% it rode out the last lockdown with considerable taxpayer support but then saw sales explode (along with profits) in the rebound. Investors see it repeating that if the lockdowns continue.

Mall operators were sold off as well.

Securities in Scentre the biggest shopping centre owner in the country dropped 2.5% but those in rivals in the shape of Shopping Centres of Australia (down 0.3%), Mirvac (down 1%) did a bit better.

Stockland though saw its securities down 2.4% (it has retirement as well as new homes to go with its retailing investments).

CBD owners Dexus and GPT saw small falls of 1.6% and 0.9% respectively investors think their growing logistics investments might be a cushion if the lockdowns deepen.

Consumer-facing shares were higher as panic buying drove Woolworths shares up 2.9%, Coles 0.6% higher, and Woolies new drinks offshoot Endeavour Group up 3.8%.

Investors reckon its Dan Murphys chain will do well if the lockdowns persist, but a big drag will be its hotels revenue and earnings from poker machines. They were crunched in 2020.

Retailer Metcash saw its shares up 3.6% thanks to the Covid lockdown surge and a record result, higher dividend and buyback (see separate story). But it couldnt hang on to the gains and it closed up just 0.8%.

It has Mitre 10 hardware and Home Timber as major plays (and rivals to Bunnings) on the home renovation boom as well.

Many of the share price rises and falls were a bit of a kneejerk reaction as they are trying to anticipate benefits from a situation that remains fluid and volatile.

Investors in many retail and internet stocks have been down this route a couple of times in the past year and know that the gains cant be, or wont be sustained the boom and bust in the Kogan share price explains that.

But that the stricken travel and tourism companies face months of continuing pain as the chances of a border re-opening moves deeper into calendar 2022.

Gains for the markets biggest companies BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue (1% or less) Commonwealth Bank, and CSL (up 1,1%) helped even the ledger. But shares in Westpac, ANZ and NAB fell.

The CBA rose 0.6% on yet more silly speculation that it could do a share buyback when it will almost certainly pay a higher final dividend for the financial year ending tomorrow, June 30.

Afterpay shares fell more than 7% on concerns about growing competition the company with its buy now pay later product was a star of the 2020 lockdowns and switch in retail spending patterns.

It is interesting it wasnt on the big price rise list yesterday.

===================
from our own sharecafe!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 28 2021, 09:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjPyW6ndJhE

thought it is a "karaoke" sorta thingy.
but, think this Korean girl give it really good vocal and soulful attack ......
i love this "grange" music [ i like it better than "smell like teen spirit" ] lmaosmiley.gif



  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 28 2021, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20210628-p584sc

2021 [is] tracking to be a +20 per cent year, Mr Lee said. The S&P 500 was up about 14 per cent in the year so far as of Friday afternoon.

While it certainly seems to be a tall order for the S&P 500 to rally to 4400 before month-end I think it could happen, Mr Lee concluded.

OK. Maybe by mid-July, he hedged.

====================

the guy is a permabull. so as bull market keeps going ,so he is "right" all the way so far....

i'm not sure about asx200 today, as virus fear vs end of financial year window dressing.......... really not sure unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 27 2021, 01:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/sy...site/ar-AALu7c1



New South Wales has reported 30 new cases of Covid-19 and the vaccination hub at Sydneys Westmead hospital has been identified as a potential exposure site.

===============================
vaccination hub?????????? wtf!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 26 2021, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/how-a-petit...ot-started.html

With less than a month to go before Jeff Bezos embarks on his greatest adventure with a trip to space, more than a few people here on Earth are making it known theyd prefer it if the wealthiest man on the planet takes a one-way trip and remains in orbit.

===========================

lmaosmiley.gif ..... i wandering why the heck people hate him so much??? unsure.gif

because he is a super rich person???
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 26 2021, 10:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

lmaosmiley.gif
i know that, frootloops. just try to be "chicky" on our boss who focus on her root more than for NSW's peoples life. weirdsmiley.gif

===================
Earlier snap lockdown could have averted wider spread: expert
When asked about NSWs decision not to impose a snap lockdown earlier, Professor McLaws said she disagreed with NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chants reasoning.

Dr Chant on Friday said a snap lockdown would have provided little benefit beyond contact tracing.

I disagree with that, because its not all about the contact tracing. Its about getting people not to travel, Professor McLaws told ABC.

So had [NSW] done their lockdown much earlier like last week, you would have prevented somebody from going to a birthday party where theyve now already had an explosion in numbers and could have prevented one of the guests from going down to Melbourne.

In addition, an earlier lockdown would have prevented people from going to the hairdressers where theres 900-odd potential contacts, and so, you would have just prevented people from travelling to then really get a handle on what youre doing.

And yes, a snap lockdown does help with chasing up the contacts - absolutely. But it helps when you understand behaviour, and its not just about the virus, but what do we do on the weekends?

We travel for shopping, we travel for enjoyment. And had that happened last weekend, you might have seen a very different pattern.
==================================

let people be the judge .....................
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Jun 26 2021, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/stock-marke...-to-close-.html


Bank shares jumped after the Federal Reserve announced the banking industry could easily withstand a severe recession. The Fed, in releasing the results of its annual stress test, said the 23 institutions in the 2021 exam remained well above minimum required capital levels during a hypothetical economic downturn. The decision cleared the way for the banks to raise dividends and buy back more stock, which was suspended during the pandemic.

=====================

inho------ our big banks still have at least over 10% upside left in them from valuation point of view, and TA seems support that view.

but DYOR as always.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 25 2021, 04:10 PM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/politics/businesses-to-...20210625-p5847g

More than 1 million Sydneysiders have been told to stay at home until next Friday, after the NSW government caved in to growing calls for a lockdown to curb the citys growing COVID-19 outbreak as the state reported 22 new locally acquired cases on Friday.


================
our boss hates it, but she has to do it. sadly she can't see Mr.Maguire for a while!!!! lmaosmiley.gif

if she did it earlier , i guess we have much less infected peoples!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 25 2021, 10:21 AM


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Posts: 13,677

The RBA is locked into a battle with big bank economists as each dispute just how quickly interest rates will rise again. On Thursday, the central bank shouted down claims it will be forced to hike rates from as early as next year, saying low rates will be needed for full employment, healthy wage growth, and meaningful inflation.

================

lmaosmiley.gif , keeps jaw boning , amazing stuff!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 25 2021, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The US dollar index (DXY) printed a small Doji (inside candle) to show volatility remains capped ahead of CPI data tonight therefore expect to be in for a quiet Asian session due to lack of top-tier data scheduled for currency markets.

======================

think of AUD gonna back to 0.7650ish soon. unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 25 2021, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

US indices hit new highs on bipartisan deal:
Wall Street finished on a high note as US President Joe Biden confirmed a bipartisan Senate deal for a $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan. Furthermore, after market closed it was confirmed that banks had passed the Feds stress tests which paves the way for more buybacks another pillar of support for equity markets.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.64% (and up 2.25% WTD) and hit a fresh record high, although take note of the bearish pinbar whilst RSI (2) hit an overbought level of 94.3 which warns of near-term exhaustion. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% (2.4% WTD) and also closed to a record high without a reversal candle and RSI (2) is not yet overbought at 85.7. 9 of its 11 sectors closed in the green led by the financial sector. The S&P 600 small cap index was the strongest mover, up 1.6% (4.7% WTD) and the Nasdaq bank index rose 1.5% (5.1% WTD).

Futures market point to a positive open across Asia, so we may see this spill over to the ASX 200 and break its two-day losing streak. Tuesdays large bullish inside day shows support at 7235.30, although notice that yesterdays lower wick found support at the 20-day eMA, so as long as prices dont drop too sharply earlier in todays session we would seek a break above 7303.8 to suggest bullish continuation and bring 7344 resistance into view. Ultimately, our bias remains bullish above 7235.30.

=================================================

few days to end of financial year for aussie market , good trading opps. imho
[fidies get their bonus and we get our little scrapie] lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2021, 11:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/health/medical/co...rain/ar-AALmEkK


After months of growing scientific evidence, the World Health Organization formally acknowledged the airborne spread of Covid in April. It can occur when viral particles remain suspended in the air or travel farther than one metre.

Laboratory studies have found particles of the virus can linger in the air in aerosolised form for up to 16 hours.

===========================

thought NSW gonna lock down like other states did!! but our boss said NO.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2021, 10:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The Commonwealth Bank economics team is now forecasting interest rates to rise as soon as next year, two years earlier than the RBA. Australias central bank has repeatedly stated the official cash rate will remain at 0.10% until 2024 "at the earliest" as it tries to give unprecedented forward guidance. However, as unemployment falls and the economy grows faster than expected, the RBA may not have much choice but to hike rates sooner than anticipated.

===========================================

not sure what RBA gonna come out??? lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 24 2021, 02:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

1
As well recall, prior to the Fed-induced sell-off last week, the SPX made marginal new highs for a few days. While that triggered the next bullish formation, the indexs tiny daily movements failed to encourage necessary upside follow through.



2

Because of that, we wanted to be patient, and the would-be target above 4,400 never appeared in the Live Pattern Grid.



3

A week later, a now much bigger potential bullish pattern has formed. And while it could take a bit more time to see a fresh breakout, it could very well be worth the wait.



4

Thats because its a very similar set up to the technical pattern that preceded the early April breakout. In fact, said breakout has been the only one all year that garnered additional demand AFTER making new highs.



5

Regardless, we cant deny the symmetry here. The SPX spent the majority of the 1st quarter zig-zagging in volatile fashion, which finally changed in the Bulls favor as the 2nd quarter commenced.



The index now has spent two-thirds of the 2nd quarter (May and June) oscillating once again, as it has consolidated that April breakout.



6

The OTHER common theme for both periods: all of the action has occurred within the same upward sloping channel.

========================

end of financial year is near for asx200, expecting sorta "window dressing" activities ....
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2021, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/nine-...arty/ar-AALkdjE

New restrictions have been introduced in Sydney after a spike of 16 new coronavirus cases in NSW.

A further 13 new cases have been diagnosed since the 24-hour cut off, which will be included in tomorrow's official numbers.
==========

looks like we gonna be f$$%%cked again!!! weirdsmiley.gif


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2021, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

not vary sure of it nipper
it's just my opinion, and with basic market moves,
saw the SP prop up yesterday, i reckon people put some of the sale into TLS. KINDA p/o shift thingy with all those fundies!! tongue.gif

to see the price movement today , that will tell little bit ...
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2021, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Vocus Groups life on the ASX only has a few days to go after shareholders approved the $3.5 billion buyout of the Dodo and iPrimus owner by Macquarie and Aware Super.

Vocus investors today overwhelmingly backed the takeover with 99.84% of votes cast in favour of the scheme merger.

The scheme goes to the NSW Supreme Court on Thursday for final approval.

Vocus shareholders will receive $5.50 cash for each share held on the applicable record date, which is expected to be July 2 at 7pm AEST.

Working through a jointly-owned company called Voyager, Macquarie and Aware Super made their approach for Vocus back in March, locking in a $5.50-per-share offer.

Over the past three years, Vocus has executed an ambitious turnaround strategy that radically simplified our business, our networks, and our technology platforms to reduce costs, expand our reach, and provide better services for our customers, Vocus chairman Bob Mansfield said in a statement to the ASX.

Todays vote is a vindication of that strategy, and recognises the contribution of every Vocus employee towards the successful execution of the companys turnaround.

This outcome is in the best interests of all shareholders and ideally positions Vocus as it embarks in a new stage of investment.

You can bet that both buyers will be telling us that Vocus is a great buy when they try to refloat it in a couple of years time.

========================================

expecting more of money flow into TLS eg....... after people sell all their VOC. basic logical right?? tongue.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2021, 08:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Equities higher as the Fed push strong economy with transient inflation narrative
San Franciscos Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told reports she was bullish on the recovery, substantial progress had been made towards the Feds 2% inflation target and full employment goals. But, perhaps more importantly, she thinks the Fed may be in a position to begin tapering this year. This last point alone was enough to topple equities when James Bullard effectively read from the same script on Friday, yet Jerome Powell soothed any negative response from markets with his persistent view that inflation will be transitory, when he testified to congress separately.

Bond yields were lower across the curve the US 10-year yield falling -2.2 bps below 1.5% and the 2-year was down -2.6 bps to a two-day low of 0.23%. On the economy, Powell said labour demand is very strong and expects strong job creation in autumn. Lorretta Mester is also in the transient camp and expects inflation to rise to around 3% to 3.5% this year before falling back to % in 2022, adding she expects employment to fall below 4% by next year.

The message of a strong, but not too strong recovery was music to Wall Streets ears, technology stocks took the lead with the Nasdaq 100 closing to a record high and the Nasdaqs biotech index now up 5.6% month-to-date. The S&P 500 stopping just short of its own record high with eleven S&P 500 sectors closed in the green.

The ASX200 recouped most of Mondays losses during its best session in three-months yesterday, to close with a large bullish inside day. Information technology sector is the best performer month-to-date, although with an RSI (2) reading of 99.52 it is at high risk of over-extension over the near-term. At the other end of the scale, the ASX Allords gold miners index is currently down -10.7% over the same period as they tracked gold prices lower.

=========================

buy the dips --------------until it not working!! tongue.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2021, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

With major US indices in a seasonal quiet period between earnings seasons and the Fed on hold, traders are likely to take their cues from technical developments

This weeks bloodbath in the crypto markets is garnering all the headlines, but yesterdays big bullish reversal in global stock indices is the more important development for most traders and investors.

Following a period of low volatility, markets were spooked by hotter-than-expected inflation figures and last weeks big hawkish shift from the Fed, leading to the S&P 500s worst week since February. The rubber band snapped back yesterday, with the index seeing a sharp 1.4% rally off support from the 50-day exponential moving average and the bottom of the well-established bullish channel.

With major US indices in a seasonal quiet period between earnings seasons and the Fed on hold, traders are likely to take their cues from technical developments, at least until next Fridays Non-Farm Payrolls report, and from a purely technical perspective, the bias for the S&P 500 remains bullish. After two months of consolidating near record highs, yesterdays price action created a Bullish Marubozu candle, signaling strong buying pressure throughout the day:

Considering the strong support from the 50-day EMA and rising channel, as well as a consistent floor at 40 in the RSI indicator, bullish traders could consider buy trades near current levels with stop losses below support in the 4150 area and a target somewhere in record high territory around 4300+.

This general technique, where you limit your downside risk while trading in the same direction of the established trend, can help put the odds in your favor over the long run, though any individual trade can always still fail.

======================

expecting asx200 to follow today.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 23 2021, 12:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

As noted on Sunday and yesterday, the SPXs Friday downturn (just barely) triggered a new bearish pattern. With Mondays immediate lift higher, the formation never had a chance and was promptly negated.

Given that yesterdays bounce remains below the recent highs, theres still a possibility for the pattern to morph into a bearish H&S formation,Its all about the follow through now.

And the SPX has made a habit of following through to the upside after a technical situation like this: An upside reversal near the 50 Day MA that has voided a bearish formation eventually has led to new highs. This is the third such occurrence since March.

Weve been tracking the appearance (and success of) bearish patterns in 2021, with the last three all being voided. Each happened at, or near, the SPXs 50 Day MA

Holding near the 50 Day MA is nothing new, of course. This is the eighth visit to the line since the SPX recaptured it back in April.

Some were clean one and done reversals. Other times, the index aggressively pierced the line before rallying, while in some instances, it took a quick revisit before a true bounce materialized.

===================

SPX over 4 points higher , seems it is consolidate yesterday's bounce.

seems there is nothing can stop this bull market at moment!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 22 2021, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Its a new trading week and risk assets are bouncing back from last weeks big selloff. Some less-hawkish-than-feared comments from the Fed on an otherwise quiet day are garnering headlines, though a general sense of optimism over the official start to summer certainly isnt hurting matters!

Of course, that summertime feeling only applies to the Northern hemisphere, and Australian dollar bulls have seemingly gone into hibernation for the Southern hemisphere winter, todays price action notwithstanding. Looking at the chart of AUD/USD, rates broke down to a fresh year-to-date low Friday, slicing through their 200-day EMA in the process. Whether you view it as a generic rounded top pattern or a messier head-and-shoulders setup, the price action over the last six months reflects distribution from buyers to sellers and will be difficult to rally back above any time soon.



its breakdown below 0.7560 support. This breakdown-retest pattern is a common setup that allows bears who missed the initial breakout a secondary opportunity to enter short positions as long as rates remain below 0.7560. To the downside, the next logical level of support to watch will be previous-resistance-turned-support near 0.7400.

With a lackluster Australian retail sales report (0.1% m/m growth vs. 0.4% expected) already behind us, these are the other economic releases for AUD/USD traders to monitor this week:

===================

don't forget to set stops if one trade it same way!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 21 2021, 11:09 AM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/tg...mber/ar-AALee4r

Australian's medicines regulator says it does not expect key data from the country's third major COVID-19 vaccine hopeful Novavax to land before September after delays to the company's global regulatory filings.


Australia still has 51 million doses of the Novavax vaccine on order, which are expected to land later this year. At the start of this week, the company revealed phase 3 trial data showing its product had 90 per cent efficacy and was 100 per cent effective in protecting against moderate and severe disease.

The studies that are going on right now are going to show how our vaccine is effective at boosting and has a safety profile that's favourable."

Novavax has no operations in Australia so is partnering with Sydney business Biocelect to lodge documents for regulatory approval of its vaccine.

"Timing of approval is still the subject of ongoing interactions with the regulatory authorities; however, Novavax and Biocelect are working towards having final submissions sometime in Q3 2021," a spokesman for the companies said.

=======================================

hope we can see prop data ----esp from safety side of thingy!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2021, 09:50 AM


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Posts: 13,677

We have been very clear all along that that external supply from outside Australia is limited for the time being. We will be increasing, over the next couple of months and particularly towards the end of the year, where we will have 40 million doses of Pfizer by the end of the year. They have promised us that.

We will have Moderna coming as well in September and onwards and the Novavax vaccine we have prepurchased. We still dont have a date for that one but that is on the horizon.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/victor...20210617-p5821q

=====================
by year end to have novavax..... tongue.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 18 2021, 12:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The SPXs current drawdown still is very shallow at only -1.3%. That has come after the slightly bigger 1.6% pullback to begin June. The SPX has maintained its higher lows sequence throughout.

We have seen weeks go by without big drawdowns before. Most recently, this occurred from November through late January.

There are two clear differences now compared to then:



First, the SPX continued to edge higher after making new highs from November through January. The moves werent huge, but they were bigger than the tiny movements we've seen recently. The index has had trouble making much headway over the last two months overall.

Secondly, the 14-Day RSI oscillated between overbought territory and the mid range back then a supportive backdrop. Recently, the RSI just broke above a key downtrend line, but it has yet to move further into to the mid high to 60s. That will be important to see change.

=============
SPX bounced as i'm typing.. expecting flow into our market !! ohmy.gif smile.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 17 2021, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

yeah nipper
saw USD spike up on this news, but i reckon it is temporary, from chart point of view USD will dive in coming month. it's just TA view!!

think asx200 might be the best bet in next few months. imho [i'm little biased] tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 17 2021, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

1
The SPX comes into Fed Day in a familiar position fresh off a new all-time high on a less than thrilling day of trading.



2

While the pullbacks in February, March and early May didnt last long, they at least provided some movement for bearish traders to work with. Not recently



3
The same frustration has been felt from the long side of late, as a breakout to new highs hasnt been met with the same kind of upside follow through that we saw in April.



4

Altogether, this presents a market thats been percolating just above its former trading rangewithin a few measly points of achieving three upside price targets still waiting for that next leg higher to solidify the more aggressive upside objective of 4,420while staying smack dab in the middle of the long-term trading channel with no 1% gains in 17 days; no 1% declines in 22 days and hardly any +/-1,000 NYSE TICK readings over the last two weeks.
=============
as Fed signalling tapering SPX had dip last night. buy the weakness still the game in town atm, so if see SPX dip to 4188ish might put little long in to have a quick trade.

asx200 is a lot bullish than others as USD dropped , commodities will do well, and banks will do well as rate rise is in sight .... so asx200 gonna keeps up and up. imho
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 16 2021, 02:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Bio in Brief: Dr Norman Begg MBChB DTM&H FFPH Independent Vaccine Consultant; Former Chief Medical Officer, GlaxoSmithKline Vaccines



Background: Public healthy physician from the UK. Also worked at CDC and WHO. Then moved to GSK (CMO for several years). Left GSK 4 years ago and working as independent consultant. On SAB for a couple of vaccine companies.

View on key benefits around mRNA technology? Very simple vaccines, take genetic material of virus and inject it. Genetic material acts as antigen to stimulate immune response. Several benefits, including much more simple and rapid to make mRNA vaccine (2 months for COVID vaccine). Traditional vaccine (inactivated), virus needs to grow (takes several weeks), harvest, inactivate, purify it, much longer and more complex process. Because antigen is produced inside the cell, stimulates humoral and cellular immunity. Has played out in astonishingly high efficacy, would never have predicted that both mRNA vaccines would have efficacy >90%. FDA threshold was 50%, exceeded all expectations. Seeing efficacy seems to be durable for limited period we have, high efficacy in all populations studied so far, and pretty good protection against variant versions (not as good as original). On safety, there was theoretical concern about auto-immunity but this hasnt played out yet. Because so simple to manufacture, very positive benefit there.

Need for handling conditions? MRNA is very unstable, has very short life. If you injected naked mRNA, would be very quickly destroyed. Manufacturers have wrapped them in LNP, but still seems like these vaccines are relatively unstable, so need to be kept at cold temperatures. Not all the same, requirements for PFE more stringent than MRNA. Other one is CVAC that can be stored at normal fridge temperatures. Difference is not clear, what makes it more thermostable. Appears that by changing structure of mRNA, can make them more stable. Now a limiting factor, but ways of getting over that (changing structure). Manufacturers getting more data and finding they're more stable than initially thought. For now a disadvantage compared to one that can be transported and stored at fridge temperatures.

Differences between modified and unmodified mRNA's? Orientation, physical-chemical structure is slightly different. The folding affects stability. Also, which LNP is used, different LNP confers different stability. No one has figured out exactly what it is, trial and error with different formulations.

Theoretical difference for CVAC/TBIO vs. MRNA/PFE? Would appear to be an advantage in stability for CVAC, based on data so far (on CVAC SAB, so can't comment too much). For TBIO, they appear to have found a way to increase stability of vaccines.

It's a hurdle but not insurmountable? Yes, in pandemic situation so stability optimization was not a priority.

Were the mRNA companies lucky that COVID seems to have a good response? Beyond COVID-19, how widely applicable is mRNA? Based on other technologies, because you succeed with one virus doesnt mean you'll succeed with another, particularly in another category. Can product/develop vaccine much faster, more simply and probably lower cost, so platform has many advantages. Much less certain for pathogens beyond COVID-19. Would not have predicted outcome of mRNA in COVID based on data available for other pathogens.

Are there pathogens that mRNA would not be suited to? The two main areas of focus are viral and oncology vaccines. Good reasons why those are a promising approach. Would put lower priority on areas where existing viral vaccines are quite good and hard to see how mRNA would be better (measles, polio, HepA). If you could make vaccine much cheaper or much easier schedule might be worth the effort but probably not. Other area that's challenging is bacterial vaccines (tuberculosis, meningitis, malaria). These are much more complex constructs. Viruses are simple beasts, typically one or few antigens of focus, whereas bacteria are much more complex, not clear which antigens are important to target. Have to think about efficacy/safety and for many diseases it's not worth the effort. For diseases with unmet need (tuberculosis and malaria), possibly, but won't be half as easy as it is with viral vaccine.

So for pediatric combo vaccines, hepatitis, MMR? Dont see those being taken over by mRNA vaccines relatively soon.

And years of established safety for those? Yes. Would be full development, couldnt just get new DDP vaccine on immunogenicity data, would have to do full development.

Would you put shingles and HPV in there? I would treat those differently. For shingles, there are two vaccines licensed - Zostavax (almost 0) and GSK Shingrix, which is very high efficacy but two-dose schedule and has an adjuvant. Could see mRNA vaccine squeezing it out if you could get a one-dose vaccine. For HPV, one-dose vaccine might work. Extraordinarily high efficacy against range of viruses for approved vaccine. The other problem is for neither vaccine is there an established correlate of protection. Couldnt just measure antibodies. Would have to do full development including Ph3 trial (big numbers, big resources).

Opportunity for shingles because manufacturing shortage? Yes, but GSK building another manufacturing facility.

For HPV, there's vaccine and therapeutic for high-risk strains which is high unmet need? Yes. HPV, HepB, there's certainly unmet need and there mRNA vaccines may have opportunity, more of a niche but definitely an opportunity.

Talk about influenza? Think mRNA very well suited to flu, because simplicity of manufacture and reformulating. Flu even more unstable virus than COVID. Manufacturers have horrible scramble every year to try to grow the four strains. Some years get the match not too well so efficacy very low, so definitely room for improvement. If you could speed up production cycle and tailor more rapidly to emerging flu strains. At the moment, there's two seasons (Northern and Southern hemisphere), see opportunity to disrupt that. Flu vaccines are not as efficacious as they should be, 70% on a good year. And particularly in the elderly. There's a lot of room for improvement on efficacy. If mRNA vaccines were efficacious, think they could displace existing technologies.

MRNA highlighted picking strains earlier, how much benefit would that give you? For flu, there isn't a correlate of protection but reasonable good relationship between Ab and efficacy, so if higher Ab then much better shot at higher efficacy. Will be able to pick and choose to develop vaccines. Question is to what extent public health community and payer community will want to do that. Feel COVID raised barrier a little in terms of expectations. There is a cutoff that FDA and EMA use for approval of annual boosters, where if you've above a certain level you're approved. For initial approval, efficacy studies need to be done and have to generate a huge safety database.

Believe that mRNA for flu would need to for first flu vaccine run real efficacy study vs. approval on correlates? Yes. They would have to generate a huge safety database. FDA might give approval on Ab, but if I was MRNA and running huge trial with 50K subjects, would try to generate efficacy data, because need to differentiate from other vaccines. Not sure if there is public info on approval pathway.

SNY has suggested they will have to do the full program. When I was at GSK ran full-blown efficacy trial, which didn't work out.

If we believe delta variant will continue, could you have annual flu and COVID vaccine in single shot conceptually. Conceptually, you could do that. Variants for flu and COVID appear at different rates, so might not need to reformulate your COVID vaccine. Maybe you don't need to reformulate, COVID doesnt mutate as fast as flu. If this was pediatric vaccine, more imperative to have single shot, but less imperative in adult population. Not sure combined vaccine is default position. Also combination vaccines have their own challenges, potential unexpected interference between components, manufacturing considerations. From marketing perspective, could imagine it would be a highly beautiful thing to be able to talk about, but from technical and R&D POV, not a no-brainer.

Think there have been mRNA pandemic flu vaccines developed with two doses. Think pandemic mRNA flu vaccine without adjuvant single dose is viable? Probably not. Depends on the pandemic strain and how drifted it is from other strains. The H1N1 strain clearly needed an adjuvant to develop efficacious vaccine. Had there been an mRNA vaccine developed, would expect it would have been two-dose vaccine. Flu basically changes in drift (small changes) and shift (big leaps). For drift in strain (what most strains are), think one dose would be fine. For shift, think you'd need two doses.

What about RSV (notoriously difficult vaccine to develop)? RSV has checkered history. Inactivated vaccine produced enhanced disease. Several platforms in development (fusion protein +/- adjuvant, live-attenuated, mRNA). In terms of POS, dont think there's an inherent reason mRNA would have more likely success vs. GSK fusion protein vaccine for example. Advantage will be that mRNA vaccines are simpler to make/get in clinic. If you fail with first formulation, back in clinic a lot quicker. Much faster R&D cycle with mRNA vaccine, but in terms of inherent POS, dont see that mRNA vaccines are more likely to succeed than other approaches. Also have different indications, pediatric, elderly and maternal.

Assuming it's the same antigen? Yes.

No inherent disadvantage to NVAX for example? Adjuvants carry some degree of risk in certain populations. That's why GSK not testing in maternal population.

What about CMV? Think mRNA has distinct head start on CMV, because it's simpler to manufacture this relatively complex structure. Also, CMV will be given to women of childbearing potential, some of whom will be pregnant. For other approaches, may need an adjuvant, which might perceptually not do as well in that population. Dont see any potential pregnancy risk for mRNA vaccine. It's not science, it's perception.

For dengue and chikungunya, are those viable indications for mRNA? Dengue is definitely an unmet medical need, vaccine has highly restricted use. Dengue is a complex disease, several different strains, so certainly there's room for a better vaccine, no question. High unmet medical need, shortfall of existing vaccines.

On safety, thoughts on mRNA as potential causality for heart inflammation? Way too early to know if (1) it's real, will hear more about that. There's a lot of slips in determining AE causality. Lots of ways to mistakenly ascribe even when there's an imbalance in incidence. Way too early to know if it's a genuine link and beyond that if it's a class effect. Way too early to tell.

Thought process around what's driving that? Could it just be high efficacy? Dont think efficacy per se would be driving it, don't buy into that one. Start to think about auto-immunity possibly, because that's been raised. Myocarditis covers very broad spectrum, maybe there's another circulating virus, can make up reasons all day for excess of myocarditis.

Does look like MRNA G3 AE rate goes up with 3rd booster dose. Is that normal? Yes, it's what you see for pretty much every other vaccine with a few exceptions. Most vaccines have increased reactogenicity with subsequent doses. From what I understand these are G3 reactions, means they're around for a few days and go away. Dont think it's a class effect, wouldn't be surprised if you saw it for other vaccines.

Pre-print that modified mRNA vaccine might downregulate innate immunity so may be more prone to other infections? Heard about it, but haven't studied in detail. Have heard many theories about other vaccines and most don't play out. Needs to be checked out and followed, but not something I get excited about.

Class effect on safety of mRNA vaccines? When will we hear more on length of protection? Do mRNA vaccines provide same level of protection presenting small piece of antigen vs. traditional vaccine? There's noise now around myocarditis, will accept that when I see it properly reviewed. At this stage would not say there is a class effect. Sure we'll see more signals popping up. For length of protection, original Ph3 trials will follow for two years, I'm sure companies will be highly motivated to publish regular updates at least every 6 months on duration of protection. Will get a lot more real-world data as vaccines roll out. Will continue to amass a huge database on duration of protection. mRNA vaccines get into cell and immediately start generating Ab that specifically target antigen of interest. Traditional vaccine is more of a blunderbuss, blast the entire virus knowing bits of it will stimulate the immune response knowing bits of it will stimulate immune response. Also traditional vaccine doesnt get inside cells, so no is the short answer to last question.

To what extent can flu vaccine makers shift to mRNA to protect market share? Everything is possible. GSK working CVAC, can do anything by partnering, but it's a commercial question, not sure I can say more than that.

On durability, booster need related to mild vs. moderate/severe disease? Memory T cells vs. neutralizing Ab? Think it's highly likely these vaccines will give reasonable long-term protection against hospitalization and death. Think more important driver is what's going to happen with variants. Think driver of boosters will be evolution of variants vs. durability. There will be variant boosters, fairly certain of it.

Dynamics of whether people will take those? They will be available, whole sociological debate about how people will respond to need for another vaccination when disease rates are relatively low.

Protein-based + adjuvants. Perception of adjuvant safety from FDA and adolescents? Adjuvants have had perceptually a negative impact. I think they've moved on from that a bit, have licensed multiple adjuvant vaccine, so a lot more experience with adjuvants, far greater database now so think FDA is less concerned.

Is there a rationale for mRNA resulting in less immunogenicity relative to viral vaccine for cancer? Cancer vaccines are much harder nut to crack. There have been multiple attempts, most of which have failed. POS has increased for mRNA cancer vaccine on ability to personalize but much lower vs. infectious diseases.

Viral vaccine potentially more effective? Yes.

For flu, is not the same construct used, so to get flu vaccine approved would be same approval pathway? COVID is public health emergency, flu is a priority. Can't say that it will be the same regulatory pathway. Asking FDA to take two leaps of faith vs. one, and that's not the FDA's style. Not a regulatory expert.

=====================
i try really hard to understand some Techy thingy in this article , but i'm not up to the task. have put it in here . might have someone can understand these jagons far better than me!! sadsmiley02.gif

hope we have fine discussion !! tongue.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 15 2021, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-an...20210615-p5814r

Novavax vaccine highly effective

Novavaxs phase 3 trial included almost 30,000 participants in the U.S. and Mexico. Side effects for the shot, given as a two-dose regimen taken 21 days apart, included headache, muscle pain and fatigue.

While the company didnt provide exact numbers on the side effect rates, Erck said on Bloomberg Television that the shot will have probably the most benign safety profile of any vaccine.

==================

hi plastic
you think this is the better vacc right?? please give us more of safety side of info. thanks in advance!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Jun 15 2021, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Japara Healthcare Limited (ASX: JHC) (Japara) advises that it has received a conditional, non-binding and
indicative proposal from RSL Care RDNS Limited, part of the Bolton Clarke Group (Bolton Clarke), to acquire
100% of the shares in Japara by way of a Scheme of Arrangement (Bolton Clarke Indicative Proposal). Bolton
Clarke is an Australian not-for-profit provider of home care, retirement living and residential aged care.
The indicative cash price offered under the Bolton Clarke Indicative Proposal is $1.22 per share. This price would
be adjusted downwards for any dividend declared prior to implementing a scheme.
The Bolton Clarke Indicative Proposal follows the receipt of the conditional, non-binding indicative proposal
from Little Company of Mary Health Care Ltd to acquire 100% of the shares in Japara by Scheme of Arrangement
at a cash price of $1.20 per share, as announced on 7 June 2021.
The Bolton Clarke Indicative Proposal notes that entry into legally binding obligations to implement the
proposed scheme is subject to, amongst other things:
⚫ Completion of due diligence to Bolton Clarkes satisfaction;
⚫ Binding financing arrangements with third parties;
⚫ A unanimous recommendation from all Japara Directors to vote in favour of the transaction (in the
absence of a superior proposal and subject to an Independent Expert concluding that the proposed
transaction is in the best interests of Japara shareholders);
⚫ Final approval of the Bolton Clarke Board; and
⚫ Execution of final, agreed transaction documentation.
The Japara Board has considered the Bolton Clarke Indicative Proposal and obtained advice from its financial
and legal advisors. The Board has determined that it is appropriate to offer Bolton Clarke due diligence access
so that Bolton Clarke can develop a binding proposal. This is consistent with the due diligence access provided
to Little Company of Mary Health Care Ltd.
==================
bargain hunting....... tongue.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 15 2021, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

ahh, another one comes in with 1.22 bid

biding war started, i read somewhere that JHC's intrinsic value at about 1.28,
so i'll hold mine. at current uncertainty market, this might good place to park the cash. imho!!! tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 11:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

With the SPX flirting with new highs at a less than feverish pace recently, a breakout has been elusive. The indexs potential cup and handle pattern hasnt changed much this week, but with the May CPI numbers now having been released, well see if one side finally takes the reins.



2

A breakout potential has been a theme in many other areas, too. Some indices and ETFs have been trying to push to new highs (R2k, XLC, PJP), while others have been getting close to completing short-term bullish formations in the face of clear resistance (ARKK, XBI, TAN).



3
We take a look at a host of them below. Seeing which way these resolve will give us a clue about the broader markets next direction and leadership, as well

================
20 minutes into us cash market opening bell, SPX had breakout, as index shoots up so fast......... tongue.gif

might see our market follow it up tomorrow when our cash market opens!! i do think asx200 is a lot bullish than other market....imho though!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20210609-p57zju

No bleeding risks were found to be associated with the Pfizer dose.

But a new and slightly increased risk of a rare autoimmune disorder was found following the AstraZeneca shot, as was evidence suggestive of other bleeding and vascular events.


=======================
not gonna touch AZ shots.....
haven't got luck to win the lotto , but instead hit this blood vascular jackpot . lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/06/09/a-b...ok-for-banking/

A Brighter Outlook for Banking

Australian Equities Growth Head of Research at First Sentier Investors, Christian Guerra, looks at the developing macroeconomic conditions and what this means for the banks and dividends.

========================

i'm bit biased on banks as i'm holding large stake in WBC. I had similar reason to this link , that is why i lean to bullish on aussie banks!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

What is a triple witching?
Triple witching is when the expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all fall on the same day. It only happens four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December which can create a spike in trading volume and volatility.

Sometimes triple witching is called quadruple witching, as single stock options were added in 2002 and also expire on the same quarterly dates.

Unlike investing, using derivatives like futures and options carry an expiry date. This has the benefit of enabling traders to speculate on what the price of the underlying market will be over a specific period. Once the expiry date arrives, any contract holders will need to buy or sell the underlying asset in question.

On a triple witching day, nearly double the number of contracts expire than in any other week, which is what creates the market movements that triple witching day is known for.

The underlying markets will see volatility in the week leading up to triple witching, but the most active period is the final hour before the market closes on the day, known as the witching hour. This is when parties rush to close their positions, offset them or roll them over. Even those who have only opened speculative positions on the futures or options contracts will need to decide whether to close, offset, or roll over their trade at expiry.

Sometimes, triple witching events can come and go with little volatility. This is especially true after weekly and daily expirations became available, as activity became more spread out. However, it will all depend on the context in which the event happens, so its important to look at news and analysis in the run-up to the witching day.

Check out our latest news.

Triple witching calendar 2021-2022
June 18, 2021
September 17, 2021
December 17, 2021
March 18, 2022
June 17, 2022
September 16, 2022
December 16, 2022

========================
just in case someone not aware these market events [ it might make market jumping up and down]
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 33,600

Key resistance: 34,800

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

The oldest US index has been on a tear since the COVID-driven trough last March, though prices have taken a bit of a breather over the past two months. The recent consolidation between support at 33,600 and 34,800 has alleviated the overbought condition in the RSI indicator and allowed the longer-term 200-day exponential moving average time to catch up with prices; in other words, the recent price action can be viewed as a healthy pause within the context of a longer-term uptrend. Now, traders will watch for a confirmed break above 34,800 to signal the next leg higher in the uptrend, with only a break below the 50-day EMA and horizontal support at 33,600 calling the bullish bias into question.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Sideways

Key support: 13,000

Key resistance: 14,500

Near-term technical bias: Neutral

Of all four indices we examine here, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is arguably the weakest from a technical perspective. Prices are trading above both the upward-trending 21- and 50-day EMAs, but only marginally, and the RSI indicator hasnt hit overbought territory yet this year, indicating tepid buying pressure. After months of choppy, inconsistent trade, bulls will need to see a confirmed break above the year-to-date high at 14,050 to renew the longer-term bullish trend and open the door for a move toward 15,000 this year.

DAX (GE 30) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 15,500

Key resistance: 15,750

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

In contrast, Germanys benchmark bourse is clearly in the strongest technical position of the major indices. The DAX set a fresh record high just last week and pulled back to bounce off previous-resistance-turned-support at 15,500 in todays trade, signaling that the breakout is more likely legitimate. The RSI is not in overbought territory, signaling the potential for more upside in the short term as long as the key 15,500 level holds.

FTSE 100 (UK 100) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 6,800

Key resistance: 7,150

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

Looking at its chart, the UKs FTSE 100 index is a middle-of-the-road amalgamation of the other indices weve examined so far. The medium-term trend is clearly still bullish, with prices holding above their upward-trending 21- and 50-day EMAs and the RSI indicator consolidating after touching overbought territory last month. As with the Dow, the month-to-date sideways consolidation should be viewed as a healthy development for the longer-term trend unless near-term support in the 7,000 is broken, whereas a strong breakout above 7,150 would strengthen the bullish case for a retest of record highs in the upper-7,000s later this year.

=================it is one of the many TA studies
DTOR as always !!

as for asx200- the index looks bullish , but keep eye on commodity , bit of smoke atm!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2021, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

i bought it at 0.081 soon i bought them, the SP dived!! lmaosmiley.gif

is that you who is selling plasic?? lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2021, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

i bought it at 0.081 soon i bought them, the SP dived!! lmaosmiley.gif

is that you who is selling plasic?? lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2021, 10:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

bought few POS ----for the small nickel play
not sure is goon move or not?? unsure.gif saw it had "nice ann" and price dropped, typical "sell on news" stuff. market never changes!! lmaosmiley.gif

on the global market , think EU is better and safe bet. imho!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2021, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The financial crimes watchdog AUSTRAC has launched an unprecedented series of probes into the record-keeping and internal surveillance processes of major casino groups Crown, Star City and The Star, as well as possible non-compliance at the National Australia Bank.

Monday saw separate announcements from each of the four companies revealing the AUSTRAC interest in their affairs in the sensitive areas of money laundering and anti-terrorism financing.

Like SkyCity, The Star said AUSTRACs concerns were identified in the course of a compliance assessment commenced in September 2019.

AUSTRAC also widened its investigation into Crown Resorts after uncovering potential breaches of anti-money laundering laws at its Perth resorts and it is looking deeper into NABs anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing performance.

AUSTRAC revealed in October last year it was formally investigating Crown over non-compliance with anti-money laundering laws at its flagship Melbourne casino relating to the due diligence it conducted on high-roller patrons.

Crown said on Monday that AUSTRAC had now also identified potential serious non-compliance with anti-money laundering laws at its smaller Perth casino.

Problems at the Perth casino (the old Burswood casino) came to light in the Bergin inquiry in NSW in relation to alleged breaches of rules and regulations ahead of Crowns attempts to open its Barangaroo casino in Sydney.

As a result, AUSTRAC has initiated a formal enforcement investigation into the compliance of Crown Perth, Crown said in a statement released to the ASX on Monday.

In a further update on Monday, Crown also said on Monday it had recently received legal advice that Crown Melbourne had breached Victorias Casino Control Act between 2012 and 2016 by taking debit and credit card payments from international hotel guests for casino chips, which is banned under state law.

Crown took over $160 million in payments in this manner until it ceased the practice in 2016, it said.

Crown is continuing its investigations into these matters, including whether it may have breached other laws by reason of the hotel card process, it said.

Crown said it had notified the Victorian gambling regulator about the breach as well the royal commissions that are under way in Victoria and Western Australia into its suitability to hold a casino licence.

The Bergin inquiry in NSW ruled in February that Crown was unfit to have a licence for its Barangaroo casino.

And the Victoria Royal Commission was told on Monday that Crown Resorts had potentially underpaid the Victorian government by $167 million in deducting marketing expenses from its calculations of gaming taxes from its poker machine revenue.

Victorias royal commission into Crown heard on Monday morning that four days after the inquiry was announced, on February 26, the casino giant prepared a spreadsheet calculating potential gaming tax underpayments.

Fairfax Media reported that Crowns executive general manager of gaming machines, Mark Mackay, told the commission that Crown Melbourne CEO Xavier Walsh had asked him and other senior staff to calculate how much Crown had saved between 2014 and 2019 by deducting the cost of running its loyalty scheme from poker machine tax payments.

Counsel assisting the inquiry, Geoffrey Kozminsky, said the total savings for the period clocked in at $167 million after the deduction of costs such as free valet parking, accommodation and hospitality, according to Fairfax.

Mr Mackay also said Crown believed it was entitled to make the deductions, but he agreed the work had been in response to concerns about ambiguity in the gaming tax legislation relating to jackpot payouts on the casinos 2628 poker machines.

And in a 4th statement to the ASX on Monday morning, Crowns main rival, Sydney-based Star Entertainment said on Monday that AUSTRAC had also identified a potential breach of its anti-money laundering obligations relating to due diligence of high risk and politically exposed gamblers at its Sydney casino.

The Star said AUSTRAC had not made a decision about whether or not it will take enforcement action, which could lead to fines, and had requested documents from The Star as part of an enforcement investigation.

Fellow ASX-listed casino, the NZ based SkyCity said on Monday that AUSTRAC had also launched an enforcement investigation into a potential failure to conduct proper due diligence on high-risk and politically exposed patrons at its Adelaide casino.

That is now in the hands of AUSTRAC investigators and prosecutors.

Meanwhile the National Australia Banks announcement was not in any way connected to the AUSTRAC references from the casino groups.

In its letter, NAB told the ASX that AUSTRAC had advised the bank in a letter dated June, 4 this year that it is AUSTRACs view that there is potential serious and ongoing non-compliance with customer identification procedures, ongoing customer due diligence and compliance with Part A of NABs AML/CTF Program.

These concerns have been referred to AUSTRACs enforcement team, which has initiated a formal enforcement investigation, NAB said.

In the letter to NAB, AUSTRAC said that it has not made any decision about whether or not enforcement action would be taken.

AUSTRAC told the NAB that at this stage, it is not considering civil penalty proceedings and that this decision is reflective of the work undertaken by NAB to date.

AUSTRACs referral to its enforcement team follows regular engagement by NAB with AUSTRAC over a long period of time, both to report issues and keep AUSTRAC informed of progress in uplifting and strengthening the Groups AML/CTF Program.

NAB said disclosed the existence of AML/CTF compliance issues in various public disclosures since 2017, including most recently in NABs 2021 Half Year Financial Report

AUSTRAC has a wide range of enforcement options available to it, including civil penalty orders, enforceable undertakings, infringement notices and remedial directions.

NAB CEO Ross McEwan said in Mondays statement that the bank would continue to cooperate with AUSTRAC in its investigations.

AUSTRAC has previously brought actions against the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac and obtained substantial fines ($1.3 billion for Westpac and $700 million from the Commonwealth) in agreed settlements of the two actions.

The shares of the quartet all fell in the wake of the news NAB shares eased 3.1% to $26.64, Crown shares lost 1.5% to $12.50, Star shares lost 2% to $3.89 and SkyCity shares slumped 6.5% to $A3.18.

==============
from our own sharecafe
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2021, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

As the performance grid shows, the index has four bullish patterns at its back. A breakout through its 5/17 highs would produce an upside target of 4,420.
The Value Sectors outperformance last week produced a fresh new high for the SPXs Cumulative Adv-Dec Line, a positive divergence.
=============

chart of SPX still on the solid bullish case for the near term

asx200 is consolidating the major breakout , bullish as well!!


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 7 2021, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

thanks nipper tongue.gif

PAN now i see what i'm use to puy my hands on and been stopped out few years back [bought at 0.30's and stopped out at 0.25]
thought PAN was good growth stock at the time [ they ramped me into it] lmaosmiley.gif

now it is 16cps as i looked at just now,


anything else you think is better bet for nickel ?? unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 7 2021, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-an...20210607-p57yo7

The board of Japara Healthcare has opened its books to suitor Little Company of Mary Health Care Ltd, also known as Calvary Healthcare, taking a possible tie up one step closer.


This is higher than Calvarys initial approach of $1.04 per share made on April 30.


The Japara board has considered the revised indicative proposal and obtained advice from its financial and legal advisors, Japara said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchang

The board has determined that it is appropriate to offer Calvary due diligence access, subject to agreeing appropriate conditions and confidentiality arrangements, so that Calvary can develop a binding
proposal that is capable of being recommended to shareholders.

---------------

easy to hold on to until it get's $1.20 plus......... tongue.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 7 2021, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

ann for JHC

calvery increased it's bid to $1.20 per share!! tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 5 2021, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

any nickel stocks, kinda remember a small one but forgot the code and name!!

please feed us few names nipper!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 10:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

U.S. unemployment rate drops to 5.8% as economy generates 559,000 new jobs in May pointing to widespread labor shortages

==================================

labor shortages??? means boss gonna pay more---leads to inflation!! am i right??> tongue.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 10:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Nonfarm payrolls in May were expected to increase by 671,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

future popped up , because market expecting Fed to keep current extreme loosen monetary policy!! lmaosmiley.gif

money money money , keep printing , it's rich man's world!! ABBA lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Amusingly enough the author, the Peoples Bank of China, then went on to predict that the exchange rate would be stable.

==============

hi nipper
think of what RBA and Fed and all other major central bankers talk, have you see any difference??? they all the same!! jaw bone !! lmaosmiley.gif

to be honest , NO ONE here can predicting any currency's movement. if someone does, then he/she will be supper rich!! lmaosmiley.gif

best we can do is to do "educated guess" and with stops in hand[ prepare to be wrong]

financial system in china is different to amarica, but every country is different i guess. just need to understand how it works, then place a trade to profit from it!![ if one can profit from it. lmaosmiley.gif

all IMHO. though. without political bias !!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

What is driving the US Dollar higher?: DXY

With the possibility of a stronger than expected NFP print for May, the DXY has gone bid on taper hopes.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was on a tear today. The US session began with the DXY selling off after Russia announced that they were exiting US Dollars from their Sovereign Wealth Fund. However, that move later reversed, and the DXY turned sharply higher with a better than expected ADP Employment Change figure for May, as well as, with a better than expected initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending May 29th. Expectations for tomorrows Non-Farm Payrolls for May are +645,000. ( See Matt Wellers complete NFP Preview HERE). But if good jobs numbers mean a stronger economy, wouldnt that mean stronger stocks and a weaker US Dollar?

By now you know the story: better data means there is more of a chance that the Fed may do more than just Talk about talk about tapering. The worry is that with a better print, the Fed will announce tapering at their June meeting in 2 weeks. Tapering, or decreasing their $120 billion of bond purchases per month, would mean lower bond prices and higher yields. In addition, less support from the Fed would also mean lower stock prices and a higher DXY.

However, the risk for the NFP print is twofold:

1) it is weaker than expected

2) there is a large revision from the horrible April print (+266,000)

We also need to pay attention to the average hourly earnings figure. With higher inflation data lately, the Fed will want to make sure that inflation is feeding through to the employment data before they do anything. They have consistently said that they want to see a string of months of improvement in the labor market, which includes increases in pay. Expectations are 0.2% for May.

After moving lower for most of 2020, DXY bounced for almost the entire first quarter of 2021. Thus far in the second quarter, the DXY has been moving lower. After hovering around the 200 Day Moving Average near 91 at the end of April/beginning of May, price continued lower in a descending wedge formation. Price broke above the wedge on May 27th, and today, finally accelerated higher away from the wedge. The DXY traded to horizontal resistance today near 90.59.

With the possibility of a stronger than expected NFP print for May, the DXY has gone bid on taper hopes. Of course, the other reason for the bid could simply be profit taking ahead of the data, as the US Dollar has been falling since the first day of Q2. Watch for revisions to the April print, as well as Average Hourly Earnings for a better gauge on market direction ahead of the Fed in mid-June.

======================
DYOR
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The SPXs quiet streak of six straight moves of 25 bps or less could be threatened today given the early weakness.

Things surely have slowed in the second quarter, but not like weve seen recently. As noted last evening, this has been especially striking given the renewed interest in meme stocks.

We can choose to ignore the meme-stock wackiness, monstrous moves and acute reversals all we want, but not when they are affecting the broader indices. Needless to say, up to this point, they have NOT affected the broader indices

The same scenario played out in the very early stages of GME spiking in January. Eventually, of course, the SPX and others took a hit.

While the SPX is not extended from an RSI perspective right now, other areas have gotten short-term stretched. As noted last night, 27 ETFs we track up at least five straight days. Some sort of pause would not be a surprise.
=======================

think SPX will holds 4185 ---the short term support.. keep eye on it

ASX200 is bullish as ever, esp AUD DROPPED big time last night's session.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Is Chinas A50 ready to bust higher?

Chinas economy has slowly been grinding higher. Unlike other countries, which faced a steep contraction of economic activity and then a quick spike in activity, Chinas recovery has been moving slowly and steadily higher. Manufacturing PMI has been steady between 50.6 and 52.1 over the past year, however intense input and output price increases have dulled the data series lately. Chinas inflation data is due out next week. Traders will be watching to see if CPI is able to uptick from Aprils reading of 0.9%. Current expectations are for 1%. With the slow but steady growth, current low headline CPI data, and increased demand from abroad, one may think Chinas stocks are flying. However, China is a having raw material input issues of its own, which may be holding stocks back. They are rising, but not soaring.

The China A50 Index gives investors access to the China domestic A shares. The main stock index grinded higher into mid-February of this year, near 20603, before pulling back as the RSI was in overbought territory and diverging from price. The A50 Index pulled back and held support at the spike high from July 6, 2021 (dark green line), near 16486. As price began to move higher, it broke above a downward sloping trendline from early March and is currently forming a flag pattern.

Notice how price moved to the 50% retracement level from the February 18th highs to the April 15th lows, near 18544, before consolidating in its current pattern. The lower shadows on the candlesticks over the last 5 sessions indicate that although there was selling early in each day, buyers entered the market and took control each session towards the closes. The lows of the flag are holding support at the 100-day moving average just above 17943. If price breaks above 18400, it will break out of the top of the flag. The target of a flag pattern is the length of the flagpole added to the breakout point of the flag. In this case its near 19260. However, if price is to reach its target, it must first pass through the previously mentioned 50% retracement level at 18544 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the same timeframe near 19030. In the event price cant hold the 100 Day Moving Average at the bottom of the flag, horizontal support is just below at 17791, ahead of what would be a retest of the downward sloping trendline from early March, near 17200.

If China is to continue with its recovery and stock market indices are to continue to move higher, the China A50 Index must first break out of its flag formation. The target is near 19260. If price does reach the target, it may well continue its way to the February all-time highs!

==============================
been told to be aggressive with A50!!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Chinese Whispers Send Ore Prices Skyrocketing

Reports that authorities in Tangshan, one of Chinas major steel producing centres, are talking about relaxing tough rules brought in last April to cut pollution and smog emissions from the citys huge steelmaking sector have sent iron ore prices soaring for a second day.

FastmarketsMB said the price of all three grades of ore 62% Fe fines 58% Fe fines and 65% Fe fines rose more than 4% on Tuesday after similar rises on Monday.

That saw the prices of the three big iron ore exporters enjoy a good day and help drive the ASX 200 up by 1% to a new closing high.

BHP shares rose 3% to $49.30, Fortescue shares rose 2% to $23.28 and Rio shares closed at $126.96, up 1.8% but were over $128 at one stage in the session.

Other reports suggested that some capacity cut ideas might be eased, while other reports said the operation of Basic Oxygen Converters (BOS) operations at steel mills (which convert the pig iron into crude steel) might be exempted from the crackdown on pollution as they are not big emitters.

Sintering plants, coke ovens and blast furnaces emit more pollutants, according to reports.

Reuters reported that pollution and capacity cuts are still being discussed in the government.

Iron ore prices reached $US208.67 ($268.72) tonne for 62% Fe fines. That was a rise of $US9.84 a tonne or more than 4.5%. The price of 58% Fe fines rose $US8.15 or more than 5% to $US181 a tonne. The price of 65% Fe fines were up less than 3% (or $US7.10 a tonne) to $239.90 a tonne.

That still leaves prices $US25 to $US30 a tonne short of the all-time highs reached on May 12.

The production cuts were in response to the Tangshan governments crackdown on steel mills, with the aim of cutting pollution levels and halving Chinas emissions.

Fastmarkets and Reuters reported that the municipal government of Tangshan Chinas steelmaking hub in the north of the country is reported to have suggested that basic oxygen furnaces no longer come under production restrictions due to the low level of pollutants that they emit.

In a notice released late on Monday May 31, it also suggested a relaxation of the rates of emissions cuts by steel mills in the city to 20-30% from the more stringent 30-50% currently in place.

The larger cuts were announced in April amid a lot of song and dance from local and central government departments and officials and the reports of backsliding might indicate the changes are not written in stone in Beijing and some slippage could happen which could be bullish for iron ore prices and demand.

It suggested the rate for Chunxing Special Steel, Tangshan Plate, Donghua Steel, Xinda Steel and Songting Steel to be lowered to 30% from 50%, and for another 15 steel mills emissions reduction rate to be lowered by 20%, instead of 30%.

This is in line with the central Chinese governments proposal of using market-oriented methods to cool down red-hot commodity markets, including steel, Fastmarkets reported.
========================

from our own sharecafe

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

US Dollar

There continues to be some demand near 90. Given its round number significance and that the zone held twice prior in 2021, this is understandable. But theres also ample supply up near the 91-91.5 zone, which may slow down any true bounce attempt.

============
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 08:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/trump-...port/ar-AAKE0oS

Democrats who support Joe Biden don't want to hear anything about Donald Trump, and because Donald Trump is not on Twitter anymore, they think, therefore, he doesn't really exist," Haberman said. "Except he does really exist strongly in this right-wing ecosystem."

===================

the jackass back again?? lmaosmiley.gif
man, what a crazy world that is!!!!! cool.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Since 1928, the SPX has been higher in June 53/93 years (57% of the time), with an average move of +0.77%.
But those numbers are a bit skewed given that 8 of the top 10 happened between 1929 and 1955, and those were sizable up-moves.
The most recent big June advance occurred in 2019 (+6.89%).
Looking more closely, the SPX has advanced in June 11/20 years, with an average move of -0.6%. But its been a lot better lately, with the index having been higher in June five straight years starting in 2016.
The 20 Year track shows a jagged, but higher, first half followed by a big dip late in the month that has tended to mark a multi-month low. A key low was etched in June last year, too, of course.
With the SPX marginally higher in May, the index logged its fourth consecutive monthly advance. At least four straight monthly gains coming into June have happened only four prior times since 1992 (1995,1996, 2013 and 2014). The index was up in June three times (down in 2013).
On AVERAGE, the R2k has etched a bottom vs. the SPX in late May over the last 20 years, which has tended to last through June.
Over the last 20 years, VIX seasonality has displayed intra-month spikes after etching a low in May. Last June, the index shot higher by nearly 90% mid-month as the SPX cratered 5.9% on 6/10. It then dropped 54% through early August
===================

still bullish on SPX. from chart point of view, SPX gonna go higher, more likely. imho

as for asx200 it looks really bullish from the chart [as it clear the 7200 again] expecting it to march higher. tongue.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 31 2021, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/us-sec...r-dr/ar-AAKxAtl

The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) has used a partnership with Denmark's foreign intelligence unit to spy on senior officials of neighbouring countries, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to Danish state broadcaster DR.

According to the investigation which covered 2012 and 2014, the NSA used Danish information cables to spy on senior officials in Sweden, Norway, France and Germany, including former German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and former German opposition leader Peer Steinbrück.

"It is grotesque that friendly intelligence services are indeed intercepting and spying on top representatives of other countries," Steinbrueck told German broadcaster ARD. "Politically I consider it a scandal."

Sweden's Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist told Swedish SVT broadcaster that he "demanded full information on these things." Norway's Defence Minister Frank Bakke-Jensen told broadcaster NRK that "take the allegations seriously."

=================================

not sure how "serious" they gonna go??/ because this shit happened long long time ago !!! lmaosmiley.gif serious?? give me a break!!

to be fair , you give anyone a chance they will do the same , in this case USA had superior technology to do so, so they did it. as Edward Snowden pointed out before this happened!!

not sure why the heck they bring this old story up again?? to me all the Govnt. are the same shit!! weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 27 2021, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.fool.com.au/free-stock-report/a...kMoxc73oOin9IYn

It’s been a heck of a run — but what I’m most proud of is our ability to consistently lead investors like you to some of the most life-changing investment returns the market has ever seen. I’m talking, of course, about companies like:

ResMed (up 484%) since recommended 24/05/13
Corporate Travel Management (up 831%) since recommended 23/08/12
Cochlear (up 266%) since recommended 26/04/13
Seek (up 425%) since recommended 27/09/12

===================

here is my question
how many losers they have been recommended to their members during this 10 plus year?????? wink.gif no mention at all???
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 26 2021, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Market bears were eager to point out that Monday’s 8.36 billion shares accompanied one of the broadest advances we’ve seen in weeks.
Looking more closely, volume fell off of a cliff after April 5th, just as the market was extending from that prior highly volatile, heavy volume, late-Feb to late-March trading period. During those few weeks, volume was STRONG on both up AND down days.

Since then, Volume has been LIGHT on both up and down days.


In fact, if we had let volume levels alone dictate the next move over the last two weeks, we would have been led down a wrong path. The highest volume days in May happened on 5/11 and 5/12. While those were part of an ultimate 4.4% drawdown, there was no downside follow through.

Instead, support held twice, as more backing and filling resulted. And yesterday, the SPX finished with its third highest closing price.

The longest uptrends are characterized by small moves, low volatility and low volume. The number of 1% moves have not disappeared, of course, but on a rolling 12-month basis, the number continues to drop. See chart below.

======================

so bulls are winning for US market esp SPX.

for asx200

as i'm typing the future is over come 7100, could see short covering and buying from the bulls today. bias is long for today!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 26 2021, 09:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.ft.com/content/408d4065-f66d-43...us_yahoo/auddev

The extraordinary stimulus measures in the US could undermine confidence in the greenback if inflation takes off


Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/408d4065-f66d-43...us_yahoo/auddev

Billionaire US fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller delivered an apocalyptic warning earlier this month that the dollar could cease to be the predominant global reserve currency within 15 years.

“I can’t find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances,” the chief executive of Duquesne Family Office declared.

He is not alone in expressing concerns about excess US demand, a more inflationary environment and accompanying dollar weakness. Such worries have been a contributory factor in the jittery equity markets of the past two weeks.

..
=================================

i guess a lot of "old time" people here knew this , but USD still standing like strong cowboy....... cool.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 25 2021, 03:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

While traditional technical patterns have been snuffed out soon after “triggering” over the last few weeks in the SPX, we shouldn’t ignore how potentially powerful a boring trading range could be for the next move

There were four multi-week trading range breakouts in 2020 While they varied in length and height, they shared two key characteristics: 1. The initial breakout attempt failed. 2. The resultant low was tested and held, which helped prevent a topping pattern from triggering.

While we don’t know if the recent low near 4,056 was “the” low of this move, so far, the same type of behavior has repeated once again.

Both were part of a volatile few months (starting that May), with the index finally breaking out to new highs again in October. The recent back and forth movement since last September looks quite similar to 2019 in this sense. The missing link – a breakout that has legs…

====================================================
SPX WENT ABOVE 4200 AS I'M TYPING. bulls seems winning........

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 24 2021, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Worries about inflation and the sliding cryptocurrency market thanks to Chinese Government intervention will dominate financial markets again this week.

While Eurozone shares rose 0.6% on Friday, Wall Street saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall marginally, while the Dow finished in the green.

There was further taper talk by hawkish Fed officials in public appearances last week (and in the Fed’s latest minutes). More appearances by Fed officials are due this week while a key inflation measure favoured by the Fed will be issued on Friday and is forecast to show the annual rate hitting 3% in April.

Friday’s soft US lead saw ASX 200 futures fall 5 points or 0.1%, pointing to a weakish start to trade for the Australian share market today.

Weakness in cryptocurrencies continued after another strong warning from the Chinese government saw Bitcoin lose more ground.

Trading continues 24/7 so the price Monday morning could be very different to where it was on Friday night and Saturday – close to or under $US30,000 a token.

The ASX 200 added 10.7 points or 0.2% on Friday to close at 7,030.3.

The ASX 200 nosed 16.1 points ahead for the week, adding 0.2% across the five days.

The weekly rise came after the market recovered on Thursday from Wednesday’s $A41 billion slide.

A lowlight of Friday’s trading was online retailer Kogan.com whose shares plunged 14.3% to $8.70 on an earnings downgrade and stock and sales problems.

Share markets had a bit of a rough ride last week with inflation fears continuing to impact along with taper talk in the US and perhaps some impact from the fall in crypto currencies forcing speculators in them to sell shares to help cover margin calls on their crypto losses, according to the AMP’s Shane Oliver.

This left US shares down 0.4% for the week, but Eurozone shares were up 0.3%, Japanese shares rose 0.8% and Chinese shares gained 0.5%.

Bond yields actually fell, and commodity prices were soft with metal and iron ore prices down and oil prices down on reports of progress in US/Iranian talks to return to the nuclear deal and end sanctions on Iran. That would see more oil appear in global markets.

The Aussie dollar fell despite a further fall in the greenback.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 lost earlier gains and finished Friday nearly flat as the tech sector came under pressure again amid another drop in bitcoin price.

The index closed down less than 0.1% to 4,155.86 after rising as much as 0.7% earlier in the day. The Dow added 123.69 points, or 0.4%, to 34,207.84, thanks to a jump in Boeing shares. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% to 13,470.99.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to register for its first back-to-back weekly losses since February. The Dow eased 0.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq saw a rise of 0.3%, breaking a four-week losing streak.

==============

from our own sharecafe!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 23 2021, 03:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

five weeks remain until the end of the TFF on 30 June 2021. Will fixed rate loan rates begin to rise as banks return to bond markets for term debt?

=====================

that is when we expecting property market to "cooling off" some what do we???

rental market is really soft, and units gonna feel the heat when the time comes i guess!! imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 21 2021, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/lo...usly/ar-AAKdeIM


With concerns the rollout is stalling due to people's fears of blood clotting and adverse reactions to vaccines already available, the Federal Government has now put a callout for more companies to make an application to manufacture other vaccines on home soil.

==============

fear is something that is normal for every day people like us. i for one won't touch AZ with any poll....... weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 21 2021, 12:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The SPX’s reversal yesterday came just as the index was about to test last week’s low. Under that point, there was (and still is) a lot of air down to the 3,990 area.

The SPX’s next step will be breaking above the recent downtrend line. And that line actually is part of a multi-week DOWNWARD sloping trading channel. And as of now, it looks similar to the prior downturns we’ve seen this year. Each was resolved to the upside, and each led to new highs, as well. See the chart below.

As noted yesterday, the intra-day TICK range of 3,365 was the third widest in history. Of the prior nine occasions, six times, a short-term low was etched soon thereafter. Three times, more volatility followed.

====================

SPX rebounding as i typing, looks a good session for bulls!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 03:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://au.yahoo.com/news/man-icu-with-bloo...-045035249.html

Olivia Lambert
Olivia Lambert·News Editor
Thu, 20 May 2021, 2:50 pm
A man is in a serious condition after he developed blood clots following his first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The 53-year-old man is being treated in intensive care after receiving the jab in South Australia on May 4.

SA Chief Health Officer Nicola Spurrier told reporters the man was admitted to hospital on May 18 with severe abdominal pain.

She added it was the first case of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) in the state and it had been "linked to the AstraZeneca" vaccine.

=============

another over 50s case, so age isn't much mattes fo AZ

it is low percentage m but it can cause death---that is why people scared of AZ. not many like to take the chance esp virus rate is so low in Aussie.....

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Fear is the mind-killer: secular growth stocks are becoming increasingly attractive.

Secular growth stocks have been dramatic relative underperformers for the last 11 months. This underperformance was quiet at first, but has become really notable in 2021

I have no opinion on the future direction of inflation, but I would note that Warren Buffett’s fantastic article from 1977, “How inflation swindles the equity investor” suggests that high ROE/ROIC businesses should outperform low ROE/ROIC businesses in a high inflation environment as they will suffer less relative compression in their ROEs and ROICs.

Relative revisions drive relative performance over short 1 year time frames. Duration of growth and changes in ROIC drive relative performance over longer time frames.


I think that the relative weakness in secular growth stocks fundamentals exemplified by their terrible relative revisions is nearing an end. For anyone confused who believes that the fundamentals of secular growth stocks have been good — yes, their fundamentals have been good in absolute terms, but the 10 to 20% beats seen in secular growth land this earnings season are actually disappointing relative to what has been happening in the rest of the market.

Secular growth stocks are increasingly attractive to me although I will continue to own most of my consumer cyclicals as well given they are still quite cheap.

Cleaner positioning, lower relative valuations and stabilizing relative revisions are positive for secular growth. The time to rotate to cheap cyclicals exposed to vaccines, reopening and accelerating GDP was roughly 3 quarters ago, not today. It’s easy to “Be greedy when other are fearful and fearful when others are greedy,” but much harder to actually do this.

I would note that I am almost always early, so if history is any guide this is not the bottom for “secular” growth stocks but I do believe secular growth stocks are steadily becoming more attractive.

===================================


it is a long wind article, took me 20 minutes to try to nail it down what this guy try to tell us. DYOR as always!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Commodities: Oil weaker on multiple fronts, gold shaken at its highs
Well, there was no major announcement of US rejoining the nuclear Iran deal as speculated by a Russian Ambassador. Yet it didn’t prevent oil from falling due to several drivers; broader risk-off sentiment, a stronger dollar, concerns of a potential Iran deal, falling demand from China and rising coronavirus cases in Asia.

WTI futures fell over -3% and to a three-week low before finding support at $62.00. Brent futures fell -3.25% and closed beneath trendline support on the daily chart.

It was a volatile yet, ultimately, directionless session for gold after a false break above 1875 resistance was quickly reversed and the day closed with a wide legged Rikshaw Man Doji. The stronger dollar certainly played its part but its failure to close above key resistance should warn bulls that a corrective phase could be due – just one day after Silver.

Silver’s bearish pinbar on Tuesday was confirmed with yesterday’s sell-off back towards 27.0. It remains within a bullish channel, in line with our core view, but we need to see volatility subside before reconsidering longs.

=====================

only silver is my bullish bet. think of silver will out perform all other majors next few months!! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The US dollar was the strongest major and rose against all its peers during a risk-off session, allowing the US dollar index (DXY) bounce from 89.68 support (the February low) and printed a two-bar bullish reversal pattern (bullish piercing line). This is a scenario we had planned for from a technical perspective, but the tone of the session allowed it to materialise.

EUR/NZD was the strongest pair, and EUR/AUD broke above the resistance level highlighted in yesterday’s Asian Open report after enjoying its most bullish session in six and stopping just shy of our initial 1.5800 target. As prices spent most of the US session retracing, we are now looking for the 1.5700 breakout area to hold as support before its next leg higher.

==================

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Indices remained under pressure for a third session
Wall Street was heading towards its third day of declines, although the declines at their heaviest just after the open before they pared losses throughout the session. The Nasdaq 100 etched in a small 0.15% gain, the Dow Jones was down -0.48%, the S&P 500 fell -0.29% whilst the Russell 2000 took a -0.78% hit. The losses were heavier in Europe, with the Euro STOXX 50 leading the declines by -1.6%, the DAX falling -1.55% and the CAC closing -1.2% lower. The FTSE fell by -0.94% to a four-day low.

We were looking for shorting opportunities on the ASX during its three-day pullback and it certainly did not disappoint. The ASX 200 met and blew past our bearish wedge target, finding support just above the 6905 low. With 80% of stocks below their 20-day eMA it points towards a near-term sentiment extreme and minor bounce, and futures are pointing towards a higher open around 6935. But, given the strength of yesterday’s bearish bar, we are again on the lookout for another sign of weakness but this time between the 6966 – 7000 zone. A break above 7,000 invalidates the bearish bias.

============================

on the fence , as things still murky !! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 02:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

As mentioned last evening, the index’s recent false breakout, quick drop, false breakdown, subsequent bounce and lack of upside follow through, all has created a sloppy looking chart over the last seven days of trading.
All eyes will be on the 50 Day MA again (4,076). Prior to last week, it was successfully tested six times since the March’20 lows.

If we look more closely, it’s clear that three of those times, the INITIAL test was temporary: In September, October and late Feb/ early March, the SPX subsequently undercut the 50 Day MA before true demand reappeared.

Those points lined up with times when the SPX got close to (or breached) the long-term trading channel, too.

================
best thing to deal with SPX is to stay aside. imho.

asx200 , both bulls and bears look at 6900. 6875 would be stops for the bulls if one try to have long bet. sit on the fence is the safer way imho
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2021, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20210505-p57p1g

The majority of my savings had sat in a long-term deposit, but the interest rate is just so small, that I decided it was time to start online trading to shake things up,” the 28-year-old communications executive says.

“I spoke to a few financially savvy friends to get some advice. One of them actually raked in some serious cash during COVID-19 from a long-term investment he has in overseas shares – he helped me set up my trading account, and gave me some tips to invest to get the ball rolling.”

=================

sound so familiar ----reminds me year 2000 before the the dot come crash...... ohmy.gif

market always work this way isn't it?? lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2021, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

US Dollar: The breakdown target is near 86.5, which would put it below the early 2018 lows.


======================
it's just TA stuff. i'm focus on geo--plitical events instead for this few days!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2021, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

one day movement that changed chart for traders
asx200 future is at 6988, my stoploss point. better stay on the fence today, these yo--yo action only suitable for intra--day traders.

for SPX

The SPX’s bearish formation last week (and subsequent support break) pushed the Bear Oscillator to 3, but with its downside target being negated on Friday, the indicator remains in the Tame Zone (0-3).

Three Demark Buy Signals have triggered for ARKK since May 4th. None have mattered yet, but it suggests the selloff could be getting washed out short-term. The issue, of course, is that a rally from here would just put it back to its former breakdown point and its 200-Day MA: more fodder for the bears.

=========================
that is before the US market bell, now , i think marketers got bit scared !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 18 2021, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Among the acute turns and big swings last week, one of the most interesting was that the SPX logged two 1% losses and two 1% gains over the five trading sessions.

While that may seem rare, we’ve now seen four +/-1% moves in a calendar week eight times since the March’20 lows. Of the prior seven, the SPX was higher the next week five times (71% win rate).


Of those previous seven, the SPX finished lower three times DURING the week that it logged at least four 1% absolute moves (like last week). But the NEXT week, the index was higher each of those times.

Zooming out, as is clear on the chart below, none led to major downturns either. This is obvious knowing what has transpired over the last 15 months, but noteworthy, nonetheless.
==============

so, all is well for the bulls for SPX!!

asx200 holding above 7000, and had shake out action for it's future market last night, it dipped to low of 6992, then went all the way back to 7032 close. looks promising for the bulls today
i would go long at 7025ish with stops at 7010 target 7088 for two days.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 18 2021, 09:37 AM


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Posts: 13,677

It’s a Wall Street nightmare. You score hundreds of millions of dollars on a trade and you just can’t get paid. That’s what Goldman Sachs faces in a transaction pitting it against Mexico’s dominant power company, one championed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. At issue: roughly $400 million the Wall Street giant believes it’s owed from a natural-gas trade that went wild when a deadly deep freeze hit Texas in February.

from bloomberg

==============================
whoa!! cowboy stand off!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 18 2021, 06:05 AM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/16/stock-marke...ock-market.html


‘canary in the coalmine

while stocks sold off, Fernandez says investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads were not flashing any warning signs.

The spread between 2-year Treasury yields and 10-year yields, for example, widened to just 148 basis points by Friday, up from 140 basis points at the lows of the week.

“That’s saying the credit market is not concerned right now,” said Fernandez. “We’re sitting in a pretty good spot with a higher VIX [and] a steady bond market. That’s usually positive news for equity markets going forward

=========================

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 09:53 PM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20210517-p57sji

CBA eats Westpac’s business lunch

“We were probably a little bit conservative on our credit settings in the last 12 months and we’ve reversed that,” he said in an analyst call to discuss the results.

Westpac’s chief financial officer, Michael Rowland, said business lending fell in the six months to March “due to modest demand across most sectors with larger declines in property, agri and professional services”.

“In business lending, we have lagged in the past, but we are starting to apply the same rigour we have brought to mortgages,” Rowland told analysts.

====================

smell the fight---- will it be a cat fight or something more .....??? unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

nice one for ALD

tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 11:14 AM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/bedlam-behi...20210516-p57scr

Bedlam behind penny stock’s 7500pc rise and fall

===============
ohmy.gif

market never changes!!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 10:03 AM


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Posts: 13,677

A day after enduring its first 1% decline in nearly two months, the SPX logged its first 1% gain in almost three weeks. This clearly has changed the boring feel that we had grown accustomed to since April began



2

The head-fake above 4,220 negated a price target north of 4,300.



3
Yesterday’s bounce back got close to violating the recent downside break, too. And if the early strength holds through the close today, the 4,010-downside objective will be no longer, as well.



4

So far, 2021 has been DEFINED by whipsaw-like trading. In fact, if the most recent breakdown fails to achieve its target, it will be the third unsuccessful bearish formation. We’ve seen three failed bullish patterns, too.



5

In fact, only one breakout (or breakdown) actually played out – the early April edition.



6

If the first four and half months are any indication for the rest of the year, then we could be in for more of the same. More volatile back and forth movement.

===========================

SPX still in the uptrend ,

but my faith in asx200 has been shaken , like to see asx200 to stay above 7000 by the closing bell today!! unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

US inflation data has been coming in higher than expected. Will it be the same in other parts of the world?

==========
what kimda question is that?? every man and his dog know that inflation is everywhere these days----given that much money has been printed from all central banks around world!! weirdsmiley.gif


======================
Last week, inflation data came in hot for April in the US. However, since the beginning of the month, manufacturing and jobs data were weaker than expected. Is the inflation truly transitory, as the Fed says, or stagflation coming our way? This week, we’ll get a better view as more inflation data is released from around the world. In addition, as mentioned in the last Week Ahead, while some countries continue to battle with the coronavirus and a shortage of vaccines, others are in the middle of their re-openings. On Monday, the UK continues with their re-opening, while the CDC in the US said masks are no longer necessary for fully vaccinated people. And although earnings season is coming to an end, we’ll get earnings from big retailers in the US this week!
===========================

time to raised rate all you central bankers!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

MY THOUGHTS ONLY

now we have another little property boom, witch is good for banks.

if economy is too hot they start to raise rate----then yield curve gonna go a lot steepen than now---we all know steepen yield curve is really good for bank's profits

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 02:42 PM


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Posts: 13,677

yeah Mick

but people always say " don't fight the Fed"!! but this time marketers seems gonna go "revolution " they really gonna fight it's way out ....... lmaosmiley.gif
seems a lot of them don't like they've been lied on their face----"no inflation" yeah right!! WTF. EVERYTHING GOES UP BIG TIME!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 11:59 AM


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Markets are losing faith in central banks
Bond vigilantes may stop believing the US central bank’s assurances that inflation is under control and take matters into their own hands.

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/markets-...20210514-p57rwl

=================

it's worst thing can happen to central banks-----------lost trust by the markets!! devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

The bounce got a lot of attention, but USD remains in a downtrend… with a large amount of supply above it.

=================

but there isn't just Fed printing day and night, other central banks all do it. so how do we reserve the purchasing power?????????? unsure.gif

go long stocks, might be the only way!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 08:41 AM


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Posts: 13,677

After yesterday, a handful of NDX indicators have reached extreme lows, which suggests a near term Tech-led bounce attempt could be imminent.

Only 14% of the NDX components are trading above their 20 Day MAs. It last got close to 10% threshold near the March’21 lows.

Over 40% of NDX stocks are trading BELOW their respective Lower Bollinger Bands, too. That’s the highest % since March, 2020. It has gotten worse than this over the last few years at times, but not often.

The NDX, itself, is oversold vs. its Bollinger Bands, as depicted by the %B indicator. A short-term bounce resulted after each prior occurrence over the last three years. Again, during the most intense corrections/crashes of 2018 and 2020, this led to more pain before THE low was etched.

The NDX’s 14-Day RSI dropped to 34, which was the indicator’s low from March 5th, too. The other sell off over the last 12 months were never strong enough to push the indicator UNDER 30.

The NDX/SPX ratio now is oversold again for the first time since the March’21 lows. Back then, the indicator got down to 20 – the lowest since 1990

The NDX’s 7.8% drawdown, is NOT extreme compared to recent pullbacks. Thus, we’ll have to see how traders treat the next mean reverting move, whether it happens today or not.
=============

so judge by last night's action, Daq had rebound. whether it is dead cat, or something meaningful have to see a good follow on action.

================
Regarding, the SPX, the bearish target (4,010) will remain in play as long as the breakdown zone isn’t violated. Let’s recall that we’ve only seen ONE successful bearish pattern play out since July, 2020.

The pullback finally has shaken the SPX loose from the top of its trading channel. The drop has put it back in the middle of the pattern. In other words, the damage has been contained.

The drawdown is over 4%, which now is more in line with recent drops.
Using the March lows as the starting point, the SPX got close to the 38.2% retracement yesterday. and, of course, its 50 Day MA.

=====================

SPX had good rebound as well , this index looks a lot stronger than others!!

for asx200

i'd use same strategy as yesterday .
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2021, 03:52 PM


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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/13/chinas-agin...pply-chain.html

The trend of the old age dependency is going to rise … This is a warning not only for China, but also across the whole world, as China is the core of the supply chain,” Raymond Yeung, Greater China chief economist at ANZ, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

=====================

aging problem will hit most of the country!! that is sure thing, that is the reason i bought those aged care sector years before. but i did wrong timing---too early!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2021, 09:49 AM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/austra...20210513-p57reu


Novavax’s CEO Stanley Erck this week said raw materials shortages had forced it to delay the process of getting its vaccine out into the market.

====
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2021, 09:43 AM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.msn.com/en-au/health/medical/ne...flu/ar-BB1gFuYc

The test uses a fluorescent probe to search for antigens - proteins on the surface of a virus molecule - which may belong to either disease.

Since COVID and flu have similar symptoms, a fast yet highly accurate test like this will help quickly rule out one infection and potentially confirm the other so that patients only have to endure one of the unpleasant screenings.

And from a public health perspective, confirmation that someone has flu, coupled with a negative test for Covid will offer confidence that the person positive for flu doesn't need to quarantine, or be contact traced to prevent an outbreak.

The novel technology developed for this test may also be adapted in the future to test simultaneously for other diseases.


================ that would be good for economy as well i reckon.
if it works well, then a lot people will living in relatively normal life !!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2021, 09:24 AM


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Posts: 13,677

US CPI jumped 4.2% YoY ahead of the 3.6% forecast. Stocks drop as investors anticipate an earlier move by the Fed.

Rising inflation concerns have been stalking the market all week. Today’s CPI data confirmed the markets’ fear that inflation is roaring higher.

US CPI for April came in at 4.2%, well ahead of the 3.6% forecast and up from 2.6% in March. On a monthly basis inflation surged 0.8% versus 0.2% expected and up from 0.6% last month.

Core inflation also shot higher 3% up from 1.6% in March.

The fact that the US Dollar surged and tech look set to take a hit suggests the market it pricing in a sooner move by the Fed to tighten policy. There is still another inflation print due before the Fed trade decision in June, and another jobs report.

However given surging inflation and commodity price the Fed may have to reconsider how transitory it believes inflation will be.

It’s only Wednesday and the tech heavy Nasdaq will want to be drawing a line under this week. After diving -2.5% at the start of the week, the Nadsaq futures are down a further 1.2% today after the inflation data, taking the hardest hit.

=====================
now most of central banks get what they wished for----INFLATION.
but the problem is ----when the beast coming in , it will be like wild fire storm ---fast furious, as all of them pumped in wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much paper cash into eco..

there is a english phrase, "be careful what you wish for"" is that right triage???

asx200 keep eye on 7000 the key level and stops will be at 6988ish if one wants to go long for the index.
by the way WBC NAB will be x--divy today!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 12 2021, 11:03 AM


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Posts: 13,677

hit over 1.06 this morning

seems my thoughts is on the card, the bid will be increased bit more.

also see EHE went up a lot [same sector but it is bigger, includes in asx200]

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 12 2021, 11:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

i had few info, but just too busy with other things.

stay out of market if one can sit on the sideline. if still want to investing , might look at commodity related stocks!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2021, 08:00 PM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/fryden...20210510-p57qll

budget is out
looks like big cash splash!!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2021, 09:48 AM


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Posts: 13,677

The US dollar index (DXY) etched out a fresh low before finding support just above 90.00. Technically it could be due a bounce (however minor) but 90 remains the pivotal level over the coming session/s. Fundamentally there’s little reason to be bullish on the dollar but, technically at least, things are looking stretched down at those lows.
AUD/USD failed to hold onto earlier gains and formed a bearish pinbar which closed back beneath 0.7850 resistance. 0.7800 is the next level for bulls to defend over the near-term.
AUD/NZD saw another failed attempt to break above 1.0800. In yesterday’s report we suggested a daily close above this key level could hint at a bullish breakout, yet the bearish pinbar which closed beneath this key level keeps a break of its bullish trendline (from December’s low) a real possibility.
The Japanese yen caught a bid during a risk-off session on Wall Street, seeing GBP/JPY give bac earlier gains and form a bearish pinbar.

========================================

DYOR !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2021, 09:46 AM


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Posts: 13,677

Ominous Signs on the Nasdaq 100
As per usual, it was technology and growth stocks which were the worst hit under the ‘inflationary fears’ scenario. The Nasdaq 100 was down -2.6% and sent several worrying signals to bulls. Closing beneath its 50-day eMA, yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle had no upper or lower wick (meaning it opened at the high and closed at the low of the day) and formed part of a three-bar bearish reversal formation (Evening Star Reversal). Given it now forms part of a lower high, the bias remains bearish beneath 13,815.

The Russell 2000 growth index fell -3.46% and the S&P 500 fell from its record high and closed on its 10-day eMA. The Dow Jones hit (and traded slightly beyond) our 35,000 target before giving back gains to close slightly lower, forming a bearish pinbar and warning of exhaustion at its record high.

European equities were mostly flat, with the Euro STOXX 600 index rising just 0.03%. The DAX was also flat yet held above Friday’s low, so the bullish bias outlined in yesterday’s video remains intact.

===========================
still playing that "sell in May" card!! ohmy.gif


asx200 future looked grim after it just closed at all time high!! really thought it will keeps march higher , blush.gif

stay put for today as picture gets really confused!!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2021, 09:25 AM


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Posts: 13,677

North America’s biggest petroleum pipeline is in a race against time to overcome a cyberattack before regional reserves run dry. Colonial Pipeline said segments of its Texas-to-New Jersey line are being reactivated in steps, and pledged that most service would be restored by the weekend. The issue now is whether inventories held in storage tanks are enough to satisfy demand while Colonial works on resuming operations. The closing of the nation’s biggest fuel pipeline system illustrates the risk facing America’s infrastructure when it comes to disruption by bad actors, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Monday. “It tells you how utterly vulnerable we are,” she said. The success of yet another massive cyberattack raises a question the U.S. has been hearing a lot lately: how can this keep happening?

The hack of Colonial is a novel form of cybercrime that puts normally staid corporate entities in the vise of an old-school extortion scheme. And guess which country the White House thinks may have played a part


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-...secretary-video

=======================

this time is Russia,
next will be Chieainna! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2021, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677


8.91 as i type,
not sure where support for this one, 6---7 bucks ??? unsure.gif
====================================

today it hit low of 5.93. the down beat seems gonna keep going.
i guess a2m have to come up with something like "" drink a2m , u can immune from covid-19"" , for sure SP gonna flight up again!! sound joke?? in current world , you never know!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2021, 09:31 AM


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Posts: 13,677

closed little over 95 bucks last Friday
think it will go a lot lower, from TA point of view
FA ......... well old buggs like us never like the idea in first place!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2021, 08:55 AM


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Posts: 13,677

The US dollar index printed a bearish engulfing / outside week, suggesting a break below 90.0 could be imminent.

=================

the chart looks scary as it is, but think it will be hold last support at this stage, worth to keep close eye on it for traders and investors!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2021, 08:50 AM


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Posts: 13,677

It was a mixed picture on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closing to at a record high, the Russel 2000 closing flat for the week yet finding support above its 10-week eMA for a fifth consecutive week, and the Nasdaq 100 closing at a four week low yet above its 10-week eMA.

The ASX 200 is making hard work of breaking above 7,100. Given May is usually a bearish month for the index, and that bulls are struggling to take full control, we are mindful of its potential to roll over the coming week/s. Yet defining a bearish entry point is not easy either, with so many overlapping candles at these highs. That said, we would consider a daily close beneath 6993 as a sign that the market has topped, and a daily close above 7100 a sign that perhaps this bull trend still has legs.

=====================

after "shocking" US NFP [ not shock to me] things have little change
not giving up asx200 to march all time high yet!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 9 2021, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

Judging by the negative reaction to the interim profits from the ANZ and NAB this week, it was a disappointing half way reporting season.

ANZ and NAB shares got the thumbs down from investors and the shares fell after the results were released even though they were better than expected.

Westpac saw a more positive reception with a 5% rise on Monday after the result was released but that was undermined by the latest allegations from ASIC against the bank about insider trading in the way a big finance deal was to be protected in money markets.

But in reality the three results – and that from industry leader, the Commonwealth in February – were good – not as upbeat as say four years ago, but certainly better than the Covid-damaged interims a year ago.

And they had to be because of the amount of stimulus and support for banks and the economy from governments and regulators.

If the results had not revealed significant improvements and higher dividends than a year ago, then all the tens of billions of dollars in support would have been for nothing.

And the banks have had some significant support – they have borrowed $100 billion from the Reserve Bank under its Term Funding facility with another $100 billion on offer until June 30 (and these are three-year loans that expire in 2024 which is the year when we will see some real pressures on the banks and some of the customers).

The cash rate is 0.10% and will be maintained until 2024 at least. That will protect net interest margins for the next three years.

Cash profits of the big four jumped 62% in the March half year to $13.8 billion.

The Commonwealth led the way with cash earnings for the half year of $3.89 billion and an interim dividend of a large $1.50; Westpac had cash earnings of $3.54 billion and an interim dividend of 58 cents a share; NAB reported cash profits of $3.34 billion and a 70 cents a share dividend and the ANZ’s cash earnings were $2.99 billion and the dividend was 60 cents a share.

In its usual end of reporting season assessment of big bank profits, accounting firm EY said that the Australian major banks’ half year results “reflect a more positive operating environment than might have been expected this time last year.”

“Fears of large-scale defaults on housing and business debt have eased with the steady economic recovery. While the banks still face an increase in nonperforming loans as a result of the economic downturn, it appears at this stage that the rise will be modest.

“Aggregate cash earnings improved, following the significant credit provisioning undertaken in the first half of 2020. Organic capital generation and a reduction in risk-weighted assets (RWA) have further strengthened the banks’ capital position and have ensured substantial buffers against potential future shocks.”

EY said however bank earnings and profitability “remain under pressure in an environment of ultra-low interest rates and aggressive mortgage competition.”

“Net interest margin (NIM) was declined 6 bps. NIM is expected to remain an ongoing challenge for the banks, given low interest rates and highly supportive monetary conditions that are likely to continue over the medium-term. Average return on equity (ROE) improved to 10.4%, from 6.5% pcp.

(For 2019-20, the big four banks cash earnings totalled $17.4 billion and return on equity was 6.7%, the lowest for 30 years).

And looking to the future, EY said that despite the stronger economic outlook (the RBA revised growth, jobs and inflation forecasts higher this week), “risks are still elevated.”

“The full impact of the economic downturn on asset quality is still playing out, with forbearance programs and income support measures only recently drawing to a close.

“Uncertainty remains around the impact of domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, new variants of the virus and a delayed vaccination rollout that could prolong the pandemic and slow down the economic recovery,“ EY wrote in the report.

EY said the banks’ immediate priorities continue to be managing credit risk and capital and continuing their simplification and digitisation strategies to boost efficiency (ie cut costs).

“They also have a heightened focus on the environmental, social and governance (ESG) agenda, with the pandemic concentrating attention on sustainability.”

------------------------------------------------- from our own share cafe

look at this
-------------------
NAB reported cash profits of $3.34 billion and a 70 cents a share dividend and the ANZ’s cash earnings were $2.99 billion and the dividend was 60 cents a share.

----------------------
most of peoples whom focus on banks knew that should be

==============
ANZ reported cash profits of $3.34 billion and a 70 cents a share dividend and the NAB 's cash earnings were $2.99 billion and the dividend was 60 cents a share.

==============

knida mistake i should be made by someone like me, not these "pro-- analysts" right???? lmaosmiley.gif

joke aside , i reckon ANZ , NAB just caught with " sell on good news" saga given they both SP run up a lot till before their earning release . nothing to worry about it

i reckon..... if they keep low rate for longer then there is property boom. witch is good for the banks

if they gonna raise rate sooner ... then banks profit margin will increase-----good for banks

so one way or the other-----------good for banks for one or two years IMHO though!! tongue.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 7 2021, 09:23 AM


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Posts: 13,677

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXgAjzwP4Go

exp, gonna make danville laughing or smilling. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 7 2021, 09:16 AM


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Posts: 13,677

The US Dollar is edging lower despite strong recent data. This is most likely owing to its safe haven status. With the reopening optimism growing, investors are shunning the greenback for riskier currencies. Equally, the Fed’s insistence that policy won’t be tightened soon could also be keeping the greenback depressed.

==============

Fed sees the danger of USD going a lot lower, it start to jawbone it!! blush.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 7 2021, 09:11 AM


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Posts: 13,677

A rising appetite for risk across a variety of asset markets is stretching valuations and creating peril in the U.S. financial system, the Federal Reserve warned. “Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard, the head of the Board’s financial stability committee, said in a statement accompanying the report released Thursday. “The combination of stretched valuations with very high levels of corporate indebtedness bear watching because of the potential to amplify the effects of a re-pricing event.” —David E. Rovella

=================

seems Fed gonna raise rate sooner?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 03:14 PM


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Posts: 13,677

https://au.yahoo.com/news/two-aussie-men-in...-045707658.html

The two males, one from Queensland and the other from Tasmania, are believed to be the latest to suffer from the extremely rare side-effect of the vaccine.

The Queenslander, 66, is being treated in intensive care, state Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said.

Dr Young says the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) believe his illness is the direct result of the AstraZeneca vaccine.



The Tasmanian health department also announced a 70-year-old man was being treated for suspected blood clotting in hospital. He is in a stable condition.

He reported symptoms seven days ago after receiving the vaccine, authorities say.

==================

the problem is they both are over 50's.......................... i'm not a anti vax kinda, but do worry about safety ...............
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 12:54 PM


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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dead-b...20210506-p57pa3

Here are the highlights from the press conference:

One new case in NSW in addition to the one reported yesterday. It’s the wife of the man who tested positive on Wednesday.
New restrictions will come into place from 5pm today in greater Sydney and will be lifted at midnight on Monday.
These include the use of masks on public transport and indoors, limits on household visitors and restrictions on singing and dancing at different venues.
Testing has revealed the Bondi man shares a COVID-19 strain with a returned traveller from the US who is in quarantine. It’s not known how the virus got from the traveller to the infected man.
Health authorities are hunting for the “missing link” who could be in the community. They are reviewing CCTV footage and interviewing quarantine staff.
The returned traveller has an Indian variant of the virus but NSW Chief Health Officer says it’s not a strain of concern.

======================

knew it will be chaos!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 09:16 AM


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Posts: 13,677

Potential NFP market reaction

The US dollar gave back most of March’s gains through the month of April, with most major currencies gaining 200-300 pips against the world’s reserve currency last month. With the greenback getting off to a better start to the month of May, the NFP report could set the tone for the remainder of the month.

After the sharp selloff in April, the nascent US dollar rally could extend further if we see a strong US jobs report. In that scenario, readers may want to look at USD/JPY as a potential long candidate, with room for the pair to rally back toward previous highs in the mid-110.00s after retracing 38.2% of its Q1 rally last month.

On the other hand, a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report could create a sell opportunity in USD/CAD (pending the simultaneous release of the Canadian jobs report) if it can break below multi-year lows near 1.2250.

====================

think of AUD/USD might pop up on good reading of NFP as well!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 09:14 AM


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Posts: 13,677

, hopes are high heading into this week’s NFP Report, with potential to see over 1,000,000 net new jobs for the first time in eight months as the country gradually opens up amidst widespread vaccine distribution. In addition to the strong headline jobs reading, economists are also looking for the unemployment rate to tick down to 5.8% and average hourly earnings to come in flat month-over-month:

NFP forecast

As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report:

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Employment component printed at 58.8, up a point and a half from last month’s 57.2 reading.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment component printed at 55.1, down more than 4% from last month’s 59.6 reading.
The ADP Employment report came in at 742K net new jobs, an improvement over last month’s upwardly-revised 565K reading, though still below the 872K reading expected.
Finally, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to 612K, down sharply from 719k last month.

===================

a gyration for SPX tonight


asx200 going to pop up again at our cash market again?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

For the ANZ it looks like a case of ‘sell on the news’ and take profits after the shares dipped yesterday in the wake of a solid recovery in interim earnings and a higher dividend.

The shares eased 3.2% to $27.90, down more than $1.20 from the most recent high on Monday of $29.10.

Up to Wednesday ANZ shares had jumped 25%, continuing the surge that really started last November.

With a cautiously upbeat outlook from CEO, Shayne Elliott, a rise in the share price might have been in prospect, especially after local investors shrugged off Wall Street wobbles on Tuesday, especially in tech stocks.

What made the weakness even odder was the clear outperformance by the bank in the six months to March 31, as it topped market forecasts for profits and the size of the dividend.

What did worry some investors was the size of the write-back to the P&L line of $491 million of the $1.7 billion in provisions from the first half of 2020.

ANZ reported a statutory profit after tax of $2.943 million and cash earnings from continuing operations of $2.990 million.

This was up 45% and 28%, respectively, on the second half of FY 2020 (first half comparisons are skewed by the huge one off provisions in the first half of 2020).

Boosting ANZ’s result was that write back (or a net credit provision release) of $491 million for the half. This is up from a net release of $150 million during the first quarter.

Interim dividend of 70 cents a share was above the 60 cents a share forecast from most analysts.

CEO Shayne Elliott, advised that all sides of the business performed well, which was complemented by cost reductions.

In a statement he said the outlook was still not clear:

“There is still significant uncertainty. You only need to look at how the pandemic is playing out overseas, as well as recent lock-downs, to realise how quickly the situation can escalate.”

“ANZ is in a strong position both financially and operationally. We are well capitalised and our disciplined approach to costs over many years has us well placed to invest in opportunities to grow our business in targeted segments.

“The work to digitise core processes and platforms continues at pace and this will be more visible to customers towards the end of the year.

He said: “Following the trends of the first quarter, all parts of our business performed well. Costs were down 2% and we also increased investment in new digital capability that will provide ongoing productivity improvements and better customer outcomes.”

“Australia Retail & Commercial had another good half, becoming the third largest home lender in the market. Deposits performed well, with retail and small business customers behaving prudently by building solid savings and offset balances through the half,” he added.

The fall in institutional bank revenues was in line with expectations as Mr Elliott explained:

“Lower revenues in our Institutional business were largely expected due to the impact of falling interest rates as well as a normalisation of Markets revenue after an exceptionally strong 2020.

“Our disciplined focus on credit management has been a positive with our largest customers going into the pandemic from a position of strength and adapting fast to the rapidly changing environment.”

And the New Zealand business performed strongly.

“New Zealand continued its recent strong performance with record lending growth combined with disciplined cost management. This is a well-run business that is an important part of our overall portfolio and is well-placed to manage increased regulatory capital demands.”

Unlike Westpac which is reviewing its NZ presence, the ANZ is not looking at departing that market.

…………

As opposed to the ANZ and Westpac, the two other big banks were in favour yesterday.

Shares in Commonwealth Bank closed at a six-year peak of $92.72, the highest they have been since April 2015.

National Australia Bank shares closed at $27.37 after touching an intraday high of $27.84, the highest level seen since November 2019. NAB reports first half results Thursday morning.

===========================

from our own sharecafe
good old "sell on news" always work!! lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 5 2021, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,677

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20210505-p57p4t

Ms Berejiklian said it had helped that the man was “being so fussy” about signing in.

The venues he visited including the Event Cinema in Bondi Junction, a restaurant in Rushcutters Bay and a number of barbecque shops around the eastern and western suburbs over the weekend.

===============

F£$$%ing hell, !!! thought we already get rid off this nasty shity. man!! seems another chaos gonna come,

weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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