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mullokintyre
Posted on: Today, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Yikes, Elon might be a bit worried after one of his test rockets went boom yesterday.
This is just 24 hours before one of his working ones takes soem live astronauts into space.

Video of the spectacular blow up is from twitter

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Today, 09:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Silver up 50 cents overnight to 17.80.
Expect SVL, and hopefully ARD to have a run up Monday.
Time to offload at 14 again.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Today, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Can't believe ARD is still alive.
The last post here on this topic was 2012.
They were still planning on drilling and firming up.
Now 8 years later, still planning on drilling and firming up!
Nothing except capital raisings , management changes, and blue sky promises in the intervening period.
And another capital raising to the "sophisticates" at 1.2 cents.
The second in less than a year.
I have stumped up fro a small parcel, mainly on the back of the knowledge that its tenements adjoin two stocks I already own, SVL and ALK.
The fact that silver went up 80 cents over night wont do any harm.
Looking for a quick rise and exit, don't want to join the legions of folks bitten by the sharks over the past ten plus years.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Today, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Thats an average of 60,000 per trade, a fair bit higher than normal.
just shy of 10% of its total shares.
Must have been a couple of big parcels changing hands.
Unfortunately, I cant go back and look at the 15,000 odd trades to see the biggies.
Maybe something up.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Royco is the man to talk to on BTC.
Have a look at some of his posts on the Virtual currencies thread.
Is a keen follower of all things blockchain, and is no fool.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 28 2020, 08:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I missed lots of names, geez, i even miss Flower!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 28 2020, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

LKE on a steady up trend recently, and boosted by a 11% increase today.
Seems more and more interest in their brine technology is coming in.
Big blocks of buyers waiting, witht he numbers of sellers decreasing.
When this sort of buying pressure builds, it usually means a share price increase.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 28 2020, 11:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

According to Sharescene's front page, there are over 77,000 registered members.
Apart from the 76,990 who only look at CUV, I wonder what the rest are doing.
There are fewer and fewer regular posters these days.
Apart from the demise of the artful Arty, there have been many who have dropped off the radar.
Somebody upset Blacksheep, a prolific and knowledgeable poster, Wren was another who got angry and left.
Wolverine, Veeone, Disco Stu, Barra, mistagear, mags, Wasabibarako, Hungry, balance , mr bear, mpl, alonso and many more who were regular and if nothing else entertaining posters have all gone missing in action.
One might have expected that these guys would have been replaced by other new knowledgeable and entertaining posters.
Sadly, it does not seem to be case.
There are days when apart from CUV, only 4 people have posted on the day.
So far today, this post will only be the second for the day.
Wonder if perhaps I should HC.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 27 2020, 06:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And just like that, it gets crushed.
First time for six weeks its has been below 2600.
Time for some consolidation, keep ones powder dry until the next run/
The funnymentals have not changed, every CD is QE'ing like there is no tomorrow.
Debasing fiat currencies never ends well.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 26 2020, 03:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Big runnunp in silver today.
Pity SVL in trading halt, would have been another good day to off load at 14.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 25 2020, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Well, i kept a larger holding than I thought as only a few of the ones I held got taken at 14 before it fell back to below 13.
Now in trading halt pending a capital raising.
EIS completed and submitted to relevant authorities, says life of mine is 14.5 years.
I guess this will be the first of many more cap raisings before they actually start producing silver.
Perhaps its also time for a bit of consolidation, lots of shares out there.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 24 2020, 07:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Royco, I think you should view this youtube. unsure.gif

Bitcoin Billionaire

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 23 2020, 10:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Have the rates really hit bottom??
from The OZ
QUOTE
ANZ has hiked its interest rate on two-year fixed owner-occupier loans by 10 basis points to 2.29 per cent, marking the first major bank to increased fixed interest rates since the Reserve Banks emergency rate cuts on March 19

The move has prompted suggestions that longer term bank funding costs a key driver fixed rate pricing may be at or near the bottom of the cycle.

Since May 1, eight banks have increased rates on owner-occupied variable home loan products, while 20 lenders including non-banks increased two-year fixed rates, according to figures by mortgage research house RateCity

Theres no question were close to the bottom of the fixed rate market but some lenders could still potentially shave their rates further in a bid to get new customers in the door, RateCity research director Sally Tindall told The Weekend Australian.

ANZs increase brings it into line with two-year rates offered by NAB and Commonwealth Bank. While ANZ has made the first increase on fixed rates on its home loan portfolio, NAB has slashed its two-year fixed rate for interest only loan by 60 basis points to 2.79 per cent.

Westpac is offering the lowest two-year fixed principal and interest rate of the big four, at 2.19 per cent. The changes do not apply to variable mortgage rates which make up the bulk of ANZs home loan book.

Not sure if this is the bottom or not.
There is still the question as to whether RBA goes down the negative interest rates path.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 23 2020, 07:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

QUOTE
Mick will be happy with his gold and silver holding!!


I doubt gold and silver will be of any more use than copper or iron or Aluminium if there is a war between the superpowers.
No one wins, we are all losers.
Its just that some of the people who run things are bigger losers than the rest.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 22 2020, 08:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I feel I may have wasted some of my heard earned cash (ok It was just pure luck).
Saw an online ad for a fishing drone that I had been researching that seemed to be well below everyone else,

Got a mate to check the address in Sydney, and yes they seemed to have lots of stock of the things they advertised on their website.
Had mixed reviews on consumer affairs website, but i thought i would give it a go.
After putting in my order, and getting my credit card debited with the amount, i heard nothing.
Sent an email to the enquiries asking what was happening but got no response
Tried a couple of times to ring, but phone rang out.
Was starting to think despite my worldly cynicism , I had been conned.
I tried again to ring and got the lovely tatianna.
She said that I should have got en email asking about security.
Nothing received said I, not a cracker.
She then quoted my email back to me, but with two of the characters transposed.
No wonder I never got an email.
I pointed out to them that i had sent two emails to the orders department asking what happened to my order, but she said she was in accounts not orders!
So she sent it again to the correct address,
As part of the security, i was required to send a photgoraph of my license sitting over the top of the credit card so it exposed the name on the credit card with the last 4 digits of the card exposed as well.
Its something i have seen before with reasonable value purchases, so I was somewhat reassured.
I got no response again from email of the required security pictures, so phoned again.
Got David this time, who looked up on the computer which said my order had already been dispatched.
Great, can you give me some tracking details.
Funny, it had no despatch number he said "let me look into this , i will call you back".
About am hour later, I was surprised to get a return call as I had just about written them off.
He said that when the dispatchers came to box the drone up and send it, they found it was missing, so could not send it out.
Thanks for telling me, so when can I expect the replacement.
Agh, says david , thats the problem, it was the last one in stock.
So they are trying to source another one, may take up to two weeks.
In the meantime, today i get an email from them asking me to review the product I had bought and tell them how good they were.
I doubt they are going to like my review for my non delivered drone.
I am betting that when i next contact them they will tell me its been delivered.
Could be some interesting correspondence coming up!

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 22 2020, 08:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

looks like there is a software bug.
I bet someone in the IT department uploaded a new improved version of the IM message software, without sufficient testing.
It happened before.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 21 2020, 03:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

TLG on a run now.
Up 10% today.
Large queue of buyers, precious few sellers.
Something has to give.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 21 2020, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Glad I took the money and ran!.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 09:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

One of my Fave commentator/bloggers, Chuck Butler, has come out with a startling and sober prediction.
from his daily Pfennig newsletter on Monday .....

QUOTE
Well. This is going to be tough for me to spit out this morning, so please do not have a knee-jerk reaction, and fire me off an email. Please read what Im saying and see where Im going here Thats all I ask
Global debt is at levels that it should never have reached in a million years, but its there, and theres no paying back, in the traditional sense of paying off a debt. So, how are the countries around the world (except Russia, whos debt IS manageable) going to deal with this ever-growing debt? Ive thought long and hard about this folks, and in my heart of hearts, I know what the answer is, and Ive fought saying it, for so long, because, well, I just didnt want to believe it could happen.

And its not just because of the virus that this is the way it is At the end of 2019, Global Debt stood at $255 Trillion Once the dust settles on all the debt accumulated during the economic shutdowns, the Global debt will be greater than $300 Trillion With no ability to pay it down.

A month or so, I talked about the IMFs SDRs (special Drawing Rights), and how they used by Central Banks, and not suitable for individual use. I almost went down the rabbit hole then that Im ready to go down now.

I truly feel that with all this debt, and Central Banks going nuts with one alphabet plan after another, that theyve all backed themselves into a corner

To me, it seems, the only way out of this debt mess is for countries, including the U.S. to take haircuts, in other words, default on some of their debt. What this will do, is have every trader in the book, out to sell the currency of a country taking the haircut, and buy the currency of a country that hasnt announced they would be taking a haircut. But soon, they will all have announced it, and at that point is when I believe currencies, as we know them today, will no longer be

I thought I would be long gone by the time this all unfolded, for its been in the cards for years. I never would have thought that during my time on earth, that would see these kinds of debt levels I always thought that somewhere, someone with their head screwed on right, would figure out that we kept accumulating debt, that a default had to come eventually I always figured, Japan was first, then Greece, then the U.S. But instead, what I view happening is there would be a meeting of finance ministers where the coordinated announcement was made.

Things have gotten so bad overseas that theyre selling their Treasury bond reserves. Here was a news headline from late last week: Foreign holdings of Treasuries slumped in March by the most this century, falling $256.6 billion to $6.81 trillion. This likely stemmed from nations liquidating US debt positions to defend their currencies amid huge capital outflows.

That just means the Fed will have to up the ante on the amount of Treasuries they buy, since foreigners arent buying them like they used to. The Feds Balance Sheet will begin to show signs of stress, and the whole shootin match (the financial system) would feel the weight of the world on it, and that would be just another reason to call off the ballgame.

And the next downward move in stocks, which is coming, the Central Banks will run to the rescue, and those Countries that already dont have negative rates, will be reaching in their quivers, and finding no arrows, and will then have to go negative with interest rates. I laughed until I cried last week, when Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, denied that negative rates are being discussed. Or that he thinks there will be a need for them. To me, thats akin to when the General Manager or Owner gives a vote a confidence to the manager. We all know what comes next, right?

The going negative with interest rates is going to set off a chain of events that will change the world and the global financial systems. Heres the playbook on how I believe with will all play out. The Fed goes negative with rates, and banks begin to charge account holders for holding their balances. Being the hotblooded Americans that we are, we wont sit still while the bank charges us for holding our money, and soon there will be runs on banks for withdrawal of cash holdings

Well, seeing this, the Govt wont stand for the banks being run on for cash withdrawals, and a plan thats probably already in the works. And that plan will be to pass a bill that prohibits cash in the hands of individuals

And the next day, when you check your bank account, the dollars will have been replace with digits. Or a Govt crypto-currency, but dollars will cease to exist. And other Countries will follow suit. Thus eliminating the currencies of the world that we know of

The IMF will increase distribution of their SDRs, and banks around the world will revert to using SDRs to settle trade balances SDR's that have a different mix, because the currencies that used to make up SDR's will be gone.... Probably to a very large component of Gold...

You see, Ive through this through, and I see no other alternative. The good news in all of this is that Gold will be soaring and probably gapping higher each day by $100 or so.

So, with no currencies in the world to talk about. An end of the Pfennig is near But. At the request of the Aden Sisters, I will continue to write about economies, mainly the U.S., Gold, The Fed and other things that come to my mind, and the letter will be renamed. And it might not be done ever day. But thats all secondary, folks. The main thing is that your last civil right will have been taken from you in the blink of an eye, and now banks can charge you for everything under the sun and moon.

I know that for over 25 years, Ive told people that the way to diversify their investment portfolios is with currencies and metals But the situation has changed, and I will also have to change. But Gold will still be viable, and like I said will most likely be gapping higher each and every day, and the price manipulators will have been sent home with HUGE losses, and never to be seen again!

What should you do if you own currencies? Well, nothing. You could sell them and buy Gold/ Silver, but to do nothing would be like when you owned Spanish Pesetas, or German D-Marks, etc. They were all converted to a different form at a set conversion price Your current euro balance will be converted to whatever replaces the dollar, and thats that.

12 years ago, a fellow by the name of Aaron Stevenson, interviewed to work in St. Louis on the EverBank World Markets Desk, that I was the President of, He asked me the about the future of the currency business, and I told him, Eventually, Aaron, the currencies will all go away, but I hope that happens years from now when Im retired. Well, I'm retired now.... I'm just saying...

And with all this debt accumulation hows it going to get paid? More money printing all over the world, thus debasing each and every currency that has debt as its partner. Central Banks, like the Fed are going to keep printing currency to pay for Sovereign bonds (treasuries in the case of the Fed) and soon, with all this debt accumulation, no one will be willing to buy our debt, or Germanys debt, or Japans debt, you see where Im going with this? All that currency printing, and still the only entity to step forward to buy bonds will be the Central Bank. And when each Central Banks balance sheet begins to overstay its welcome, thats when things will change folks.

So, Im just not in the mood to keep talking about diversification with currencies Theres only one or two countries that makes sense any longer, rubles and Singapore dollars. And their markets are not big enough to weather this storm that all these other countries have stirred up Gold & Silver will still be great diversification tools. Silver has industrial uses (solar panels, wiring etc. ) and Gold has intrinsic values. Both are a store of wealth, and should be held as such.

Just keep in mind this quote from Winston Churchill... "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?" Yes, the countries have done this to their currencies, and so I'm changing horses in the middle of the stream... I don't see a future for the currencies, including the dollar...


Scary stuff, but I guess its hard to argue with what he is suggesting has and is happening so far.
Not sure about the negative interest rates, Americans with guns are not going to tolerate the feds charging the rednecks to keep their money in the bank.
I presume the preppers will have long abandoned money and bought assets like guns and ammo.
Bit depressing really.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 09:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The results are already in.
From St Louis Today

QUOTE
Even as retailers begin reopening in much of the country, a dark cloud hangs over much of the industry.
Simply put, the U.S. already had far more stores than it needed, and the coronavirus pandemic accelerated a shift toward online shopping. Rather than don a facemask to go to the mall, many consumers will open a web browser instead.

Add in the heavy debt load carried by many national chains, often the result of buyouts by private equity firms, and you have a recipe for a retail apocalypse.

When we come out of this you are going to have fewer players, fewer square feet of retail space, and the strong are going to gain market share from the weak players, says Brian Yarbrough, a retail analyst at Edward Jones.

Three prominent retailers J. Crew, Neiman Marcus and Stage Stores, owner of Gordman's have filed for bankruptcy this month and the venerable J.C. Penney reportedly may join them soon.


Back in the late 70's when I was working in the US, I was in awe of the massive department stores like JC Penny.
I was also amazed at the massive sears and Roeback catalogues that came out, a sort of forerunner to the internet. It seems that there was nothing, I mean nothing, that could not order from a sears and roebuck catalogue.
The catalogues have long gone, seems like the producers of those catalogues will follow suit.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 05:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Another reason why the various states are hindrance Oz

From ABC News

QUOTE
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly says he is ready to meet the WA Premier "any time", after Mark McGowan said he did not know who he was amid an ongoing feud between state premiers over border closures.

Mr McGowan hit back at calls from the New South Wales and federal governments for interstate borders to be reopened, saying he would not be "bullied" by a state that allowed the Ruby Princess disaster to unfold.

"I don’t know who Paul Kelly is, clearly not the singer," he said.

Speaking later in Canberra, Professor Kelly said there was no medical reason for Australians to be stopped from travelling interstate, and that the Federal Government had never advised they should be closed.

"From a medical point of view I can't see why the borders are still closed," he said.

"Just to let Mr McGowan know, I'm a proud West Australian," he said with a smile.

"I grew up in that state, so I hope I'll be claimed.

"Happy to meet him any time, it might be a while for now depending on the border closures."

Earlier New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian took aim at states with closed borders, claiming they were "hindering" Australia's economic recovery.

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer said he was sure Mr McGowan was getting "the best advice" from WA's Chief Health Officer Dr Andrew Robertson, who has advised not to reopen the borders.

When questioned on the discrepancy between the national and state advice, Professor Kelly said the national body of health experts decided early on "not to have a decision on borders".


The states have been a hindrance to progress for years.

We have different road rules, different health rules, different housing rules, different planning rules, different license regimes, different rules on daylight saving, the list goes on.

There is no medical reason as to why the borders were closed, or why schools were closed, the states just decided.

\We have this massive bureacratic behemoths in each state duplicating so many functions its laughable.

And then we have multiple levels of Government. Why on earth do some states have two houses of parliament??

The feds were set up with two houses so as the senate could act as a house of review and protect state rights.

Queensland, and the two territories have a unicameral system.
What on earth is the upper house providing to the other states other than a cushy job for politicians, and their entourage.
Daniel Andrews in Victoria has 948 staff members in the Premiers department. WTF?
Sooner we become a republic sans the states the better.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 03:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The big movers from shortman this week are the NewsCorp NWSLV and a mornningstar investment fund MSTR.
The latter has shot to 26% short in a week.
Obviously someone has some inside info thats caught on.
The shorting of Newscorp shares has been happening since early January.
Down about 22% from its $22 high.
Rupert may have to sell one his houses if this keeps up.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Shorts on Galaxy own from a high of 20% to 13%.
Pressure building on the buy side.
may be about to break out.Next target pre crash highs of 1.25.
heres hoping
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 12:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And now up to 0.13.
Big chunk of buyers lining up, ratio of buyers to sellers now 2 to 1.
Never thought I would see that again.
Will probably bail some more if it gets to 14 and keep a small holding just in case.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 12:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I deffinitely sold out too early!!
Up to 2.24 today, obviously gold is attractive at the moment.
mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

jeez, can't see too much thats funny in That!!
Take care, you'll be back.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 20 2020, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

ALk announced that it will deffinitely go ahead with the demerger of ASm(its REM prospect), and become a pure Gold production company.
Not sure whether I like this idea or not.
I had originally bought into Alkane for its REM assets, the gold part was an added bonus.
I always assumed the gold production would be used to pay to set up the REM side of the business.
It seems not to be the case now.
Given 20 mill in seed money to get it going.
ASM will then need to start arranging finance for the project.
Might be a tad difficult in this market, but with strategic demands for REMs outside of China, it may yet get off the ground.
Shareholders get 1 ASM for every 5 ALK.
So do I sell out a portion and buy more ASM on market when they hit, or do I keep my powder dry??
Will wait till i get the demerger booklet before I decide whether to bail.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 19 2020, 04:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I tried growing Lupins as a stock feed years ago on an outpaddock we had on some sandy loam.
Cows seemed to like it , but it was s a bit finicky for my liking.
Its a bit fussy in its temperature range.
Problem was, the frosts we used to get in the late 80's here made the flowers fall off, and any days above about 32 C also made the flowers fall off.
Went back to boring old oats., there werent many years when you couldn't get some sort of yield for hay.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 19 2020, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Yea.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 19 2020, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Ok, made it to .026, which was my target so I am out.
Now looking at what sort of drone I am allowed to buy (must have a release mechanism to drop my bait beyoond the breakers).
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 19 2020, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Another example of the law of uninteded consequences.
Adam Creighton in The OZ


QUOTE
James Stratton, an Australian economist at Harvard, recently estimated that about two-fifths of jobs in Australia could be performed at home, and not all of them well. “Lower-income Australians, less-educated Australians, and rural Australians are more likely to be in occupations that cannot feasibly be performed from home,” he said,

“High-wage employees are three times as likely to be able to work from home as low-wage workers,” Labor MP and former economics professor Andrew Leigh noted last month.

News last week that 7.6 million people, excluding 2 million-odd public servants, are dependent in full or part on the government for their income highlights how much damage mandatory lockdowns can do.

The costs of the lockdown, including joblessness and associated social and economic pain, both during and after, will fall mainly on the young and less educated.

New analysis by economists at New York University released last week found lockdowns were likely to induce an L rather than a ­V-shaped recession, because of “long-lasting negative effects on unemployment”.

They found the “lockdown disproportionately disrupts the employment of workers who need years to find stable jobs”.


The problem is for these mostly white elite well paid employees "working from home" is that having proved how it is more desirable in many ways to have their employees work from home, some companies will work out that it is even more desirable to have employees working from home when their home is in low paid economies like Thailand, the Phillipines, Vietnam or more likely India. We have already seen it with call centres and help desks.
it might be even tempting enough for a government to try it with some of their public servants.
The elites may find themselves out of a job.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 06:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The link below contains an excellent analysis of the different actions and very different results achived in California and New York


A tale of two cities
Its too long to cut and paste, but still well worth the read.
\

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 03:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

An interesting application of the law of unintended consequences was highlighted in the OZ today.
Seeing as so many people are working from Home now, what happens if you trip and fall in your new workspace?
Are you covered by Workcover?
Will workcover premiums go up down or stay the same?
With all these new workplaces, will the workplace health and safety inspectors be allowed to check it out?
And if they are, who pays for any alterations to a "dangerous environment" identified in the new workplace?
What happens if you do not want unsightly rails , barriers, warning signs etc erected i your home?
Ah, ya gotta love the law of unintended consequences
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 12:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Now up 20% on rather large volume.
Odd thing is, SVL don't actually poduce any Silver, they just talk about it a lot.
Can't argue with Mr Market though!
Sold some down, 30% in two days is too good to be true, but I'll take it.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

BLD is a stock that has not really recovered from the big virus induced sell off.
After spending most of last year moving between 5 and 5,50, it plunged below 2 bucks in the big sell off.
At todays price of 2.50, it is still barely half of where it was lat year.
The Vic govt has announced a 2.5 billion construction blitz to get the economy going (or to line the pockets of theCFMEU and ultimately the ALP).
Either way, this should be good for the likes of BLD.
I would suggest that NSW and to a lesser extent the other states may well follow suit.
Have taken a small introductory parcel just in case.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Gold smashed the 1700 USD level, and the asian markets are pushing it towards the 1800 level.
Lifes good.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Gold smashed the 1700 USD level, and the asian markets are pushing it towards the 1800 level.
Lifes good.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Gold smashed the 1700 USD level, and the asian markets are pushing it towards the 1800 level.
Lifes good.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And now nudging 17, at 16.89.
The paper traders may still yet crunch it back again, but heck, I am enjoying the ride.
Will be interesting to see the next COT report.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And now nudging 17, at 16.89.
The paper traders may still yet crunch it back again, but heck, I am enjoying the ride.
Will be interesting to see the next COT report.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And now nudging 17, at 16.89.
The paper traders may still yet crunch it back again, but heck, I am enjoying the ride.
Will be interesting to see the next COT report.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2020, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Well, up another 15% today.
Chewing thru those guys at .115
Big bag of buyers queing up.
May well be a very pleasant day.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 17 2020, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

It seems that Hipocracy is alive and well in many places.



Here is a tweet reporting that Pascal Saint-Amans – Director for the OECD Centre for Tax Policy and Administration – believes that a post-COVID world will have zero tolerance for tax avoidance.

Of course when you don't pay tax yourself, its ok to demand that everyone else does.

from the OECD perks page

"The basic salary is specified in the offer letter and is payable in euros, as are all other allowances (family-related allowances, expatriation and installation). Emoluments (basic salary and allowances) are payable in arrears, with the exception of the installation allowance which is payable on taking up duty.
Emoluments are exempt from taxation in most Member countries of the Organisation, including France."

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 17 2020, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Duplicate post
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 17 2020, 05:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Musk has threatened to shift production of Teslas from California to Texas, because , well, Texas doesn't have sever lockdowns.
Methinks its just a ploy , as the lockdown will probably be over by the time they even lay the foundations for the new factory.
But on another front, Volkswagen has popped up as real threat to Musk.
from Zero Hedge
One could argue there's significant overlap to the types of car buyers that would consider both Tesla and Volkswagen brands. Both brands offer unique engineering and sleek designs. But up until now, only Tesla was
QUOTE
offering an EV.

Enter the Volkswagen ID3, which, with a price point of $33,000 possibly represents the biggest challenge to Tesla's dominant EV status yet. The vehicle goes on sale in Europe and the UK this summer, despite the coronavirus and offers the same amount of range and storage space as a Tesla Model 3.

The ID3 is going to offer three different battery choices and two power outputs. It has a claimed range of 260 miles.

Volkswagen has been taking pre-orders for the car and more than 35,000 people have placed deposits so far, according to Autocar. Those who placed deposits will be able to buy their cars starting June 17 in Europe. The UK will follow in mid-July due to the time it takes to get approval for right hand drive models.

Volkswagen sales boss Jürgen Stackmann says deliveries are on track and that the ID3 is the company's sole focus right now: “The focus of the company now is on ID 3. We’re almost ready, and we just need a few more weeks to get the software to where we need it to be. The entire team are working on this topic, and we want to deliver a great quality product on time – and that time is this summer.”

Volkswagen is aiming to build 100,000 ID3s this year and prices in the will start from around £27,500 before the government grant for the entry-level 45kWh version.

The storage capabilities of the ID3 make it a formidable competitor to the Model Y. The ID3 also features two digital dashboard displays and, as Business Insider says "...seems to offer a bit more familiarity" than the Tesla Model 3.
It also offers adaptive cruise control and lane assist, similar to Tesla's autopilot. And again, the price point could be the car's best selling point. Its $33,000 (USD) tag compares to about $48,000 for the Model 3 and $52,990 for the Model Y.

It was only matter of time before one of the existing car makers came up with something that will really challenge Tesla.
They have existing dealer networks, spare parts distribution systems, and brands that are highlyt recognisable.
Will be interesting.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 15 2020, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

QUOTE
you beat me to it, Mick

It's just that I type faster , but less accurately.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 15 2020, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And further to that Roger, from The ABC

QUOTE
Real estate agents say COVID-19 has sparked a new wave of enquiries from Australians interested in moving from capital cities to regional areas, as research shows a "worst-case scenario" of a 30 per cent plunge in national house prices is possible if there is a second wave of coronavirus infections.
The option of living further away from big cities has become more appealing for some Australians after the pandemic
The city exodus has yet to play out and comes as CBD rents dive and national house prices are expected to take a big hit
Whatever happens to the housing market, COVID-19 has shifted the way people think about where they live and work
As social distancing restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 ease and auction activity resumes, some are looking at the option of selling in Sydney and Melbourne to move further out.

Agents say people have become used to working from home because of the coronavirus shutdowns and distant suburbs and regional towns offer better affordability and more alluring lifestyles.

This was exactly why Tom and Angelique Godfrey moved in March from their four-bedroom house with a pool in Sydney's Botany, to a 25-acre farm in the Kanimbla Valley.

Mr Godfrey said the family had long considered moving to the property, which he and his brother Sandy inherited from their father in the early 1990s.

"We always had one foot in the country," Mr Godfrey said.

"When COVID-19 hit, it was an opportunity to reassess."

The family had already been contemplating the move as Angelique was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease and they wanted a less stressful lifestyle.

"We previously had had a gelato cart business in the city — and that required me to be there," Mr Godfrey said.


Living in a regional area of North Victoria, I hope the exodus doesn't get too serious, we don't have the infrastructure to cope.
Might have to start renovating that old house I bought next door, but then again, I might get crappy neighbours.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 15 2020, 01:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Yeah, the last life of mine update I read from was from DCN, and look how well that went!
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 15 2020, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I think the realisation that business will never be the same is slowly starting to gather pace.
Talking to a few colleauges in the IT industry, most are saying that they have found that first of all, productivity goes up.
Secondly, the idea of having online meetings has produced two results:
(a) the realisation that the number of meetings can be curtailed.
It also has dawned on them that those meetings that do take place can be significantly shorter, with only those absolutely required to be in the zoom. no more attendees just because it might be a good idea.
(b) The amount of travel has been cut down.
This second result has worked in a number of ways.
Firstly, the cost to the company of air fares, accomodation, taxis etc has almost been stopped.
On top of this, the average of six hours in travel time that is taken up in a standard one day tri[ between Sydney and Melbourne can be spent by the employee in either productive work or leisure time at no further expense to the company.
Secondly, the costs to the employees has reduced. My nephew who works in It for a Govt agency said he is saving $300 a month in travel costs in commuting to city offices from his home. And once again, the freeing up of unproductive time is a win win for employee and employer.

One guy who works for an IT service provider said that the lockdown has so changed their business, that the company has decided that no matter when the Vic government eases all the restrictions, they will be staying with the remote lockdown model for at least the next 12 months and possibly longer. he says he really misses the social contact with work colleauges, but it may mean that socialising with them is done separate to the work environment. The company is even suggesting that salary increases and extra time off be given to do just that, such has been the increase in productivity.
Al those large Kings carparks may find their business model is down the drain, along with the airlines, Toll road operators, and even public transport operators.
Interesting times ahead.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 15 2020, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Now nudging 16.
Good recovery from the initial disaster that was the Covid19 stock crash when it was below 11.
Have no idea as to how much higher it will go.
I plan to sell a bit every time the price in AUD rises by 10%.
M
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 15 2020, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

RMS powered thru a 12 month high.
All of my goldies well up today, an unexpected pleasure.
mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 15 2020, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Well, its surging now.
There was a big block of over a mill shares at .095.
Chewed them all up this morning, and now up 8% today.
It has been some time since the buy side was even close to the sell side, much less greater than sells.
Next block is 1.3 mill at.105.
After that I am looking to offload above 14.
Go silver!

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 15 2020, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Silver may be poised for a rise.

From Kitco


QUOTE
In terms of the speculative positioning in silver, there is still a lot of room for buying, Orchid Research noted.

“Speculators cut by the equivalent of 403 tons their net long position in COMEX silver in the week to May 5, according to the CFTC … The net spec length is at just 17% of open interest, markedly below its all-time high of 57% of open interest. This suggests a very light positioning, meaning there is plenty of room for additional speculative buying once sentiment shifts positively,” the post said.

Also, ETF demand for silver is projected to rise in Q2, which would have a positive impact on prices, Orchid Research added.


Silver warehouse stocks continue to be close to critical as more buyers of the silver coins emerge with a distinct lack of sellers.
As Industrial production starts to pick up, Silver consumption will increase.
A lot of the medical equipment being made have silver coatings as an anti bacterial.
You can even buy silver impregnated socks to stop your smelly feet! (see Nanao silver socks) )

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 14 2020, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Part of the problem lies in Fauci's own words.

QUOTE
Responding to the Senator, Fauci stressed there were still many things scientists did not understand about the virus.

"I have never made myself out to be the end-all and only voice in this," he said.

"I'm a scientist, a physician and a public health official. I give advice according to the best scientific evidence.

"I don't give advice about economic things, I don't give advice about anything other than public health.

"We don't know everything about this virus. And we really better be very careful, particularly when it comes to children. Because the more and more we learn, we're seeing things about what this virus can do that we didn't see from the studies in China or Europe."

Fauci pointed to the example of young children, infected with the coronavirus, who have presented with a "very strange inflammatory syndrome", similar to Kawasaki disease.

"I think we'd better be careful if we are not cavalier in thinking that children are completely immune to the deleterious effects," he said.

"I don't know everything about this disease, and that's why I am very reserved about making broad predictions."


He puts the case from a medical viewpoint.
But the people who have to make decisions - in this case the POTUS, have to consider many viewpoints.
Economic, social, religious, political, security to name just a few.
Some are more valid than others, but in the end someone has to weigh up all the viewpoints and try to come up with the best response.
The various special interest groups who all think that their viewpoint should be paramount, are vying to push their own viewpoint.
No matter what decisions are made, there will be plenty of criticism.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 14 2020, 04:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The Chinese can mess with any market, but people still have to eat.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 14 2020, 04:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Ya could be right BG, I am kinda thinking we had the pull back over the last month.
Lots of CB's setting negative real interest rates, QE in pretty much every economy in the world, inflationary pressures starting to appear in foodstuff, and most economies in recession.
As investors get less enamoured with fiat currencies, the PMs will look more attractive.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 14 2020, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And making more highs.
Gold might be ready for another rally.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 14 2020, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And obviously Mr Market liked the results as much as I did.
Up 17% so far this morning, with plenty of buyers lined up.
Noice.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 14 2020, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Good half yearly results from GNC.
Much to my surprise, profit is up on the previous year, despite the severe drought in OZ.
With the great start to the Autumn so far, grain in particular is looking good so far.
Very low debt ratio, but like everyone else, is not paying a divvy this year.
People still need to eat, and there is very little more staple or basic than grains.
If this keeps up should be a bumper year for GNC.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 13 2020, 09:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

SCT on ASX is Scout Security.
I resume SCT as in Scott Technology is on the new Zealand exchange.
perhaps just for once, Plastic might be able to provide some useful information??
Mick
  Forum: NZX

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 13 2020, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

They know a lot about the pointy end where first class exists.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 13 2020, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

According to The ABC

QUOTE
The state-owned Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC) is set to make an official bid for a stake in Virgin Australia after the airline went into voluntary administration last month.

Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick released a statement confirming the move to save the airline and retain its headquarters in Brisbane.

Mr Dick said it could take the form of a direct equity stake, a loan, a guarantee or other financial incentives.

"We have been very clear — two sustainable, national airlines are critical to Australia's economy," Mr Dick said in a statement.

"We have an opportunity to retain not only head office and crew staff in Queensland, but also to grow jobs in the repairs, maintenance and overhaul sector and support both direct and indirect jobs in our tourism sector.

"We saw the punishing increase to the cost of flights after the Ansett collapse, and this Government will not stand by and let that happen again."


Not sure if this is such a good idea. They will still be a minority shareholder at best.

Buying jobs has never ended well, no matter what level of government we are talking about.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 13 2020, 02:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And I should have added to the list below, that fuel is the cheapest its been for a long time, and like;ly to stay that way for the forseeable future.
Plus the owners of the bvig airports are not likely to require a mortgage on fort knox to obtain a slot at the airport, nor charge high fees for seices such as parking.
And theres probably a few more I haven't even thought of.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 13 2020, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

An interesting announcement from REX that it is expanding into becoming a domestic carrier, as distinct fro its regional routes.
From THE OZ

QUOTE
Regional airline Regional Express says it could be operating its own domestic services by March next year.

In a statement released to the market on Wednesday, Rex said it was exploring the feasibility of its own domestic services in the wake of Virgin’s collapse, saying it would require equity funding of around $200m.

Rex said it was talking to several parties about backing a $200m capital raising to support a capital city expansion plan set to take shape over the next two months.

The airline said it was seeking to have a high capacity qualification added to its air operators certificate to support the plan, which would reportedly involve leasing 10 narrow-bodied jets to add to its existing turboprop fleet.

Investors welcomed the news sending the airline’s shares up almost 30 per cent to $1.16 after tehy resumed trading following a halt called on Tuesday.



This makes sense for many reasons.
Firstly, its fleet of aging SAAb 34's will need replacement. Its average fleet age is around 24 years, and the aircraft are longer being made. The older 34's could be eased out and gradually replace by regional jets.
Secondly, it gives a better career path fro its pilots to go from turbine to jets. They may see less cannablising of their staff to larger airlines.
Thirdly, there are legions of unused jets everywhere that could be leased for a pittance, so no great capital outlays.
Fourthly, there are legions of crews to fly and maintain these jets.
Fiftly, it sends a message to QANTAS and VA, that they will have more compettion.
Sixthly, the potential buyers of VA will start thinking that VA may not be such a good deal ( would be good for QF and REX if VA never returned). and as corrollary to that, if VA were cheap enough, REX Singapore owners would be able to get in a lowballbid for the entire airline.
And finally, John Sharp their chairman has very close links with the government, and seems to be able to squeeze funding for refional areas that benefit REX greatly.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 13 2020, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Never let ethics, morality, good governance, being friendly etc etc get in the way of a dollar.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 12 2020, 09:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Investors are dumb as dishwater.

From Wolfstreet

QUOTE
Uber Lost $3 Billion on $3.5 Billion in Revenues. Fake “Profitability” Delayed. Another Quarterly Horror-Show. Markets Eat it Up
by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2020 • 143 Comments
This hoped-for fake “profitability” isn’t profitability, but “Adjusted EBITDA,” Uber’s own homemade creature.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Uber – which announced another round of mass-layoffs this week of 3,400 folks or 14% of its staff – reported another classically horrendous quarterly loss this evening.

Revenues rose 14% in the first quarter, ended March 31, to $3.5 billion. But operating expenses, despite cost cuts and the series of layoffs, jumped by 16% to $4.8 billion. And there were “other expenses” of $1.8 billion and interest expenses of $118 million, a tax benefit, and a couple of other things. And the net loss tripled to $2.94 billion.

It’s astounding that investors don’t throw in the towel on a company that is over 10 years old and has many thousands of employees but still loses nearly $3 billion on $3.5 billion in revenues.

In Q1 2019, its last pre-IPO quarter, Uber lost $1 billion on $3.1 billion in revenues, according to its earnings report today. In Q1 2020, it lost $3 billion on $3.5 billion in revenues. This is not a propitious trend.


Almost as silly as investing in oil explorers.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 12 2020, 09:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Its one of many conundrums.
I could never really understand why what they call mining (the solving of complex maths) , is anything but a scam.
They produce nothing tangible, use more and more resources to "mine" them, and the rewards get smaller ovee time.
It is such a great pity that the genius of The blockchain technology was not used in creating something a little more worthwhile.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 12 2020, 10:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And the Aus China relationship is not getting along all that well either.
QUOTE
China has imposed an import ban on four Australian abattoirs in an apparent escalation of Beijing's trade war tactics.

The blacklisting of the red meat abattoirs - three in Queensland and one in NSW - comes just days after China flagged plans to introduce an 80 per cent tariff on Australian barley, bringing the trade to its knees.


So what do we do in response??
Do we do as we have always done, ignore the flaming and wait for the diplomatic repairs, or do we say, thats fine two can play at that and put tariffs on Chinese stuff.
I am inclined to fight fire with fire.
By making the Chinese imports far more expensive, we can make the possibility of us making more of our own stuff right here in oz.
Just like we used to before the economic experts said it was a good idea to lower tariffs, as they were a barrier to trade.
Maybe we do a trade deal with Taiwan and really piss em off.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 10 2020, 07:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The pair of you guys make little sense.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 10 2020, 11:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Now that scientists have done some further research, a few surprising things have emerged.
From the Australian

1. It would appear that the virus was active much earlier than initally suggested.

QUOTE
Scientists have begun narrowing down how the coronavirus is spreading, and also pinpointing when it first began transmission around the world — and it’s earlier than first thought.

University College London’s Genetics Institute have screened the genomes of more than 7500 viruses from infected patients around the world.

“Phylogenetic estimates support that the COVID-2 pandemic started sometime around October 6, 2019 to December 11, 2019, which corresponds to the time of the host jump into humans,” lead researcher Francois Balloux said.
Anecdotally in the UK there appeared to be many people struck down with mystery fevers in mid to late December.

Two of my family members, living hundreds of kilometres apart from each other, were so sick with fever they attended hospital.

One, who fell ill in mid December having just returned from Saudi Arabia, had blood tests at the local hospital after suffering six days of fever and started to develop a rash on his extremities and face. He was told he had a mystery virus and he then had headaches for a fortnight that were so severe it prompted another rare visit to the doctor.

The other was sick throughout Christmas and had chest X-rays and was diagnosed with a form of pneumonia. Again it’s uncertain if these cases were coronavirus or an unusual flu-like illness.

But when British journalist Allison Pearson tweeted that she believed the virus may have been around before January she was inundated with hundreds of people believing they may have already had the virus, having suffered unusual fevers and pneumonia.

The South China Morning Post reported in mid-March that the earliest known case was a 55-year-old man from Hubei Province diagnosed on November 17, and said China had 60 confirmed cases by December 20.

A study by French scientists published last week found a man in France was infected with COVID-19 as early as December 27, which was weeks before French health authorities confirmed the country’s first case.

The World Health Organisation said the French finding was “not surprising” and countries have been urged to re-test unusual samples taken from patients in late 2019.


2. There are not multiple versions of the virus spreading around the world, they are all fairly genetically similar.

Prof Balloux’s study also found almost 200 recurrent genetic mutations of the new coronavirus — SARS-CoV-2 — but dispelled suggestions there were three different strains of the virus around the world.n a tweet on Saturday Professor Balloux said: “There are no ‘S’, ‘G’, ‘European’, ‘American’ or whatnot #SARSCoV2 lineages. All such classifications are arbitrary and largely meaningless. Two random #SARSCoV2 genomes in circulation today are less than 10 mutations apart. This is a ‘largely clonal population’ at this stage.” He added: “The mutation rate of #SARSCoV2 is largely unremarkable for an RNA virus and has been estimated to ~18 mutations/genome/year. A strain in circulation today is on average ~10 mutations away from its ancestor that jumped into humans in Oct/Nov 2019.”




3. The physical transmission process requires contunuous close contact between transferees and the victims

QUOTE
Meanwhile Dr Muge Cevik, a virologist from the University of St Andrews, said a tranche of studies that have traced close contacts of confirmed coronavirus cases have shown transmission is highest among close family members, with the risk factors being homes, transport and indoor settings where people congregate.

She noted that susceptibility to contract the virus increased with age, as older people within households had a much higher infection rate than children.

She believes that close and prolonged contact is needed for the virus to transmit and so the risk is highest in enclosed environments.

Outdoor transmission is believed to be very low — below five per cent. Casual and short interactions are not the main driver of transmission, nor is contact with children, raising question marks about the UK’s insistence on having a 2m social distancing rule.



Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 10 2020, 09:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

They forgot another key on the qwerty .
Its called a \

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 8 2020, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Nah, hes a politician who let the girl take the heat for the ruby princess inquisition from Brett walker.
Standard fare from them.
Got nothing going for him - white, male, conservative .

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 7 2020, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

There are many ways to get around ithe app.
The simplest is of course to turn off bluetooth.
The other option is to leave the phone in the car.
Ans of course once the restrictions are lifted, you delete the app.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 7 2020, 02:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

May get another speeding ticket, up 22% today on some above average volume.
This may provide my buy a new drone money.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 7 2020, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

It seems that the cures/fixes/treatments are coming out of the woodwork.
Now it seems activated copper is the go.
from the The Australian
QUOTE
A Darwin-based 3D printing company has developed a technique for coating door handles and other surfaces in copper that it says kills 96 per cent of the virus responsible for COVID-19 in just two hours.
The technology is claimed to kill 96 per cent of the virus.
The company, Speed3D, describes the technology as “activated copper” and recently deployed it at the Northern Territory Department of Trade, Business and Innovation.

“The Australian NATA accredited clinical trial speciality laboratory, 360Biolabs, tested the effect of ACTIVAT3D copper on live SARS-CoV-2 and results showed that 96 per cent of the virus is killed in two hours and 99.2 per cent of the virus is killed in 5 hours. Stainless steel showed no reduction in the same time frame,” a statement said.

Speed3D claims to be able to coat door handles and touch plates in under five minutes and says its innovation has sparked global interest from other firms looking to protect their customers and staff against deadly coronavirus.

Separate research has previously suggested that SARS-CoV-2 can survive on hard surfaces for several days, creating a contamination risk in common areas. Cheap copper coating might offer a partial solution.


Need to do some research on what is the difference between regular copper, and "Actibvated copper".
Unfortunately, the very first reference to activated copper is from a role playing game. "Activated copper occurs in regular copper deposits from Yellow Star systems ".

Not a good start so far.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2020, 02:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The unfortunate NSW Epidemiologist Kerry Anne Ressler seemed to be taking the brunt of the blame for the screw up that became the Ruby princess Pandemic.

Brett Walker went pretty hard on her in the witness box, it remains to be seen if he goes equally hard on the well paid bureacrats higher up the food chain who mad all the decisions and left the young lady to carry the can.


Meanwhile in Victoria, Dancing Dan and his angry sidekick Brett Sutton, are starting to feel the heat over what is becoming a similar screw up to the Ruby princess fiasco.
The logic of naming sites where only 1 infection has occurred, but refusing to name the site where at the time 15 had occurred does not gell.
Particularly given the fact that the site had been a donor to the Labour party.
It must have been just a coincidence.
But then to not check other workers for the virus because the worker said he had not been at work during the infectious time defies belief.
All it took was for a phone call to the meatworks to check.
From the first case found on April 2nd, it took until another worker went to hospital with a severed thumb and was diagnosed as covid 19 positive on April 27th. By then numerous people were infected. And it was only because the owner of the meatworks made it mandatory for all staff to be tested, We are now up to nearly 50 cases of people connected to the meatworks as infected. There are likely to be more.
This balls up has got a bit more to play out yet.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2020, 02:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Ah, Hypocricy at its very finest.
From ABC News

QUOTE
A former journalist who threatened to behead members of a Canberra church has walked free from sentencing in the ACT Magistrates Court today.

James Michael Waugh, 29, had used social media to threaten several people, including a Canberra woman with whom he had had a brief relationship.

A selfie of a man wearing glasses and looking serious.
James Waugh pleaded guilty to threatening to kill Christians last year.(Twitter)
Waugh's messages to the woman after she ended their relationship included a suggestion she should be gutted and fed to dogs.

Spurred by extreme religious views, Mr Waugh also said he would behead church members with a scimitar, which he had bought from Pakistan.

"Do not approach me in the street if you see me because I will attack you," Waugh wrote on a Facebook group chat site.

"I have issued threats, along with my name and address, to every coward dog church in Canberra."


The guy had already skipped bail and fled to Queensland, but it didn't seem to matter.

Got two and a half years, wholly suspended after already spending 5 months on remand.

Can you imagine if this loonie was a Muslim, he would still be languishing in jail by now.

One rule for white boys, another for muslims.

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2020, 01:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437



QUOTE
For one thing, let us be sure that the 1957 type of A influenza virus is innocuous, as early returns show, and that antibiotics can indeed control the complications that may develop.”

This is rubbish. Antibiotics are definitely not the treatment for viruses ......... as far as I know.


I read it as saying that antibiotics can control the complications, rather than the virus itself.
This may be true for some complications , but not all.
The Eitoriial was written in 1957, when they knew even less about virus's, the immune system and antibiotics.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2020, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From American Economist

QUOTE
The year was 1957.

Elvis’s new movie “Jailhouse Rock” was packing the theaters. The last episode of “I Love Lucy” aired on television. The show “West Side Story” held tryouts in Washington, D.C., and opened on Broadway in September. Ford’s new car the Edsel rolled off the assembly line. The Cold War with Russia was on and “In God We Trust” appeared on U.S. currency. The first Toys R Us store opened.

Also that year, the so-called Asian Flu killed 116,000 Americans. Here is the full summary from the Centers for Disease Control:

In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.

Like the current pandemic, there was a demographic pattern to the deaths. It hit the elderly population with heart and lung disease. In a frightening twist, the virus could also be fatal for pregnant women. The infection rate was probably even higher than the Spanish flu of 1918 (675,000 Americans died from this), but this lowered the overall case fatality rate to 0.67%. A vaccine became available in late 1957 but was not widely distributed.

The population of the U.S. at the time was 172 million, which is a little more than half of the current population. Life expectancy was 69 as versus 78 today. Even with shorter lives, it was a healthier population with lower rates of obesity. To extrapolate the data to a counterfactual, we can conclude that this virus was more wicked than COVID-19 thus far.

What’s remarkable when we look back at this year, nothing was shut down. Restaurants, schools, theaters, sporting events, travel – everything continued without interruption. Without a 24-hour news cycle with thousands of news agencies and a billion websites hungry for traffic, mostly people paid no attention other than to keep basic hygiene. It was covered in the press as a medical problem. The notion that there was a political solution never occurred to anyone.

[Note of correction. A correspondent pointed out to me that “The October 1957 LDS General Conference was cancelled because of the flu epidemic in 1957 and there may have been other organizations that did so.” I’m grateful for the correction, and it makes the point: society was not ignorant of the pandemic. Instead, there was a variety of intelligent responses depending on the risk. I’m speculating that this event would have included quite a number of people on the list of the vulnerable.]

Again, this was a very serious flu, and it persisted for 10 years until it mutated to become the Hong Kong flu of 1968.


The New York Times had some but not much coverage. On September 18, 1957, an editorial counseled: “Let us all keep a cool head about Asian influenza as the statistics on the spread and the virulence of the disease begin to accumulate. For one thing, let us be sure that the 1957 type of A influenza virus is innocuous, as early returns show, and that antibiotics can indeed control the complications that may develop.”

The mystery of why today vast numbers of governments around the world (but not all) have crushed economies, locked people under house arrest, wrecked business, spread despair, disregarded basic freedoms and rights will require years if not decades to sort out. Is it the news cycle that is creating mass hysteria? Political ambition and arrogance? A decline in philosophical regard for freedom as the best system for dealing with crises? Most likely, the ultimate answer will look roughly like what historians say about the Great War (WWI): it was a perfect storm that created a calamity that no one intended at the outset.


Not completely sure the current events and the 57 event can be compared quite so simply, but an interesting comparison nonetheless.

Mick
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2020, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Conflict of Interest? What conflict of Interest!

QUOTE
Most Americans likely assume that Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is an economist, like the prior chairs of the Fed over the past 40 years. He’s not. Powell is a former investment banker at the Wall Street firm, Dillon Read; a former partner at the controversial private equity and leveraged buyout firm, the Carlyle Group, which has spent over $1 billion over the past decade lobbying the federal government; and a former lawyer at Davis Polk, a Big Law firm that played a key role advising the government and Treasury in the 2008 Wall Street bailout.

Powell’s background would be strange enough but now consider this. The Vice Chairman for Supervision at the Fed, Randal Quarles, who is in charge of supervising the largest and most dangerous Wall Street bank holding companies in the U.S., has an uncannily similar background to Powell. Quarles also worked previously at Davis Polk and the Carlyle Group. (Powell and Quarles are also good friends, according to Senator Elizabeth Warren.)

Both men were well schooled in leveraged buyouts before coming to the Fed. Both men are now involved in what is effectively levering up $454 billion of taxpayers’ money provided to the Fed under the recently passed CARES Act into a $4.5 trillion leveraged buyout fund of toxic debt from Wall Street banks. After taxpayers’ take the first $454 billion in losses on those purchases, the remainder may be sold off to private investors. If this sounds to you like a set-up on behalf of the one percent, it should.

Powell is a member of that one percent class. According to his 2019 financial disclosure, his net worth could run as high as $55 million. Much of his investments are with Goldman Sachs (a Wall Street bank that is supervised by the Fed) or with BlackRock and its iShares Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The government mandated financial disclosures report investment values in a range. The upper value of Powell’s holdings with BlackRock is $11.6 million. The upper range of Powell’s holdings with Goldman Sachs is $16.55 million. The name Goldman Sachs has been shortened to “GS” in the disclosure document.

These would appear to be large conflicts of interest. BlackRock has been selected to manage the unprecedented buying of both investment grade and junk bonds on behalf of the Fed to the tune of approximately $750 billion according to the most recent term sheet from the Fed. Even more conflicted, the Fed will allow BlackRock to buy up its own sinking junk bond ETFs using taxpayer and Fed money.


MSM don't seem to think any of these things matter.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2020, 08:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

According to the New york times,

QUOTE
A Kentucky woman was caught on video shopping with a hole cut in the middle of her protective mask which she claimed made it “easier to breathe.”In the video, Joe Samaan, a gas station clerk at S J Food Mart in Lexington, sees a woman entering the shop with a torn mask.

“Where did you get that mask from?” he asks the woman when she approaches the counter to pay for gas.

“Well, since we have to wear them and it makes it hard to breathe, this makes it a lot easier to breathe,” she replies.

“Cutting it?" the clerk replies. "Yeah, I’ll do that too, thanks for the advice.”

The woman then leaves the store.

I rest my case.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 4 2020, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The culture is set from the top yes.
The 4 you mention are equally as guilty.
But it permeates thru the organisation.
As with any organisation, the people at the top surround themselves with people who think like they do.
So in the end you have groupthink.
Individual thought is discouraged, sometimes even punished.

The opposition, both at state and Federal levele do not get a look in in this time of crisis,
They are irrelevant.
Parliament closed, the premier rules by decree, and what really alarms me, is the way the public servants such as Sutton, and Murphy start saying what can and cannot be done.
The elected representatives should be making those decisions, not unelected and so called independent public servants.
There are dangerous precedents being set that do not sit well with my "small l" liberal thoughts.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 4 2020, 02:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Whatever faith I may have had in the Victorian police is all but gone.
Firstly we had the fiasco of of the infighting between the Commissoner and the Police Union (Nixon, Overland, Mullett et al).
Then we have the bizarree buck passing between the top brass over the at best injudicious, at worst corrupt , recruiting of Defence barrister Gobbo as a snitch.
There was the case of officers putting stickers over their body camera lenses during protests. in 2019.
Then the case of mistaken identity when the police broke the arm of a bloke at a gay bookshop last year. And surprise surprise, the tactical squad did not wear cameras during the raid.
Then we had the ridiculous overzealous attitude of police during the lockdown (fining someone for taking their learner driver daughter out at night to practice driving being a prime example).
IBAC release a report last year suggesting there was problems with the unauthorised access of the police database by individuals for various reasons, some of which were criminal. There 135 such cases in 2016
Now it seems, that some moron has published on social media photographs taken of former AFL coach Dean Laidley dressed as a woman from inside the Police station. (Dean laidley mug shots )
What the hell was the person thinking?? if they couldn't see that this was not going to turn out well, it speaks volumes for the 'rigourous" recruitment processes for Vicpol.
There is often much discussion about "the culture" of an organisation.
Right now, the Victorian Police has a problem with its "culture".
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 3 2020, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Now that the top of the dead feline rebound is in, be prepared for the market to retest recent lows.
Armageddon here we come!
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 1 2020, 09:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Its just a F$%^%$@ train.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 1 2020, 01:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Thanks for that Roger, he made some good points.
I liked the bit where Gundlach says the time to buy was march 22 after the crash, not now when people think the market is recovering and will retest the highs pre march.
The corrollary to that is that having bought things at these low prices, now ist he time to take the money and run.
He expects the market to retest those March lows, a perfectly valid point.
I don't think OZ will be any different.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 1 2020, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

QUOTE
Got this from the accountant this morning

JOBKEEPER PAYMENT IN A NUTSHELL

JobKeeper is a wage subsidy (Reimbursement) paid through the tax system to eligible business impacted by the Coronavirus.

Eligible Employers who are enrolled will be eligible to receive up to $1,500 per eligible employee or eligible business participant per JobKeeper Payment Fortnight between 30 March, 2020 and 27 September, 2020. The payment will be made to eligible businesses in the month following the payment of wages (so April wages will be reimbursed in May) and only after required reporting has been completed.

JobKeeper is also available to businesses which do not pay wages but have experienced a downturn in turnover for the testing periods.

Wage Subsidy Financial Examples:

1 eligible person x 13 fortnights = up to $19,500

4 eligible persons x 13 fortnights = up to 78,000

9 eligible persons x 13 fortnights = up to $175,500

As the subsidy is a self assessment program, the ATO will be applying integrity measures that permit reviews of documentation for a period of up to 5 years.

For more information on JobKeeper payments and eligibility criteria visit the ATO Website.


JOBKEEPER ENROLMENT AND STEPS

Enrolment can be done internally by your business if you have access to the ATO Business Portal or can be completed by Stubbs Wallace at your request. Monthly reporting obligations will also be required via the ATO Business Portal each month.

Steps

Check if you, as an employer, and your nominated employees meet the eligibility requirement.
Notify eligible employees that you (their employer) intend to participate in the JobKeeper Scheme.
Send your eligible employees the JobKeeper Employee Nomination Notice to complete and return to you. Confirm with eligible employees that they agree to you being the primary employer to receive JobKeeper Payments.
Keep the Employee Nomination Form on file for five years.
Pay the minimum $1,500 to each eligible employee per JobKeeper fortnight. The first fortnight starts on 30 March and ends on 12 April. Alternatively, you can make one combined payment of $3,000 for the first two fortnight (Paid by the 8 May 2020).
Enrol for JobKeeper from 20 April using the Business Portal and authenticate with myGovID.
Once enrolled, you then apply after 4th May to claim on April JobKeeper payments.
You will need to report to the ATO on a monthly basis your current and estimate turnover, and eligible employees.

Are you enrolled?
Please make sure to check you have enrolled. Many have simply registered interest which does not get you the cash subsidy. On enrolment you receive a 13-digit ATO Receipt ID and A PDF titled “Business enrolment for JobKeeper wage subsidy”.


EXTENSION FOR ENROLMENT

The ATO has now announced an extension of time for employers who wish to enrol for the first two JobKeeper fortnight to 31 May, an extension from 30 April. Crucially, for the first two fortnights that run from 30 March to 12 April, and 13 April to 26 April, the ATO will now accept the late payments of the minimum $1,500 per fortnight as long as they are paid by 8 May.

“This means that you can make two fortnightly payments of at least $1,500 per fortnight by 8 May, or a combined payment of at least $3,000”, said the ATO in an update on Monday.

With the major banks now stepping up with dedicated JobKeeper hotlines to provide bridging finance to businesses ahead of the ATO’s reimbursement.


FULL TIME STUDENTS AGED 16 AND 17 YEARS OLD

Full time students aged 16 and 17 years old who satisfy the basic eligible criteria, will no longer be eligible for JobKeeper Payment unless they are financially independent. This change will apply prospectively, so employers who have made the minimum $1,500 to those students who will now be ineligible for the payment, are not financial disadvantaged. This change will have significant impact on the hospitality and retail industries but will no doubt be welcomed by small businesses struggling to find cash resources to fund up front payment of wages to eligible employees.

CASH FLOW BOOST PAYMENTS

Business eligible for the Cash Flow Boost Payment that have lodged their March Quarterly or Monthly BAS have started to see credits on their accounts. For more information on the Cash Flow Boost Payments visit the ATO Website or contact our office.


BUSINESS VICTORIA $10,000 GRANT

The Victorian Government has launched the $500 million Support Fund to help small business survive the impact of Covid-19 and keep people in work. Victorian Business may be able to apply for a $10,000 grant. For more information and to apply visit the Business Victoria Website.


NSW GOVERNMENT SMALL BUSINESS COVID-19 SUPPORT GRANT

The NSW Government is providing financial support to ease the pressures on small business as a result of Covid-19.

If your small business or non-profit organisation has experienced a significate decline in revenue as a result of Covid-19, you may be eligible for the small business grant of up to $10,000.

For more information and to apply visit the NSW Government Website.


I thought its instructive to see that a change has been made so that students of 16 and 17 will no longer be eligible for the job keeper. This was one of the original criticisms.But bad luck if you have already paid these folk on the expectation of being reimbursed. Coz you aint gunna get it now.

I think there are going to be major issues with the fact that the subsidy is a self assessment. I can see some rorting on the horizon here, look what happened with the childcare industry, look at what happened with the parenting co-payments system where parents had to estimate their income, but got hit with robodebts if the got it wrong (inadvertently or otherwise). There is just too much temptation to screw the government.
The ATO have got 5 years to audit any of the businesses that claim some form of funding. How many extra staff will they need over this time?
I am so pleased I am n longer running a business, its going to be schemozzle.

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 1 2020, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

So where is everyone??
Nothing happening.
No posts, no gems of wisdom.
I'm as bored as hell.
NABTRADE down again (useless platform, going to shift).
Had some lowball buys in, can't tell if they have been filled or not.
And its cold and wet outside.
At least we have central heating/
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I think the only way out of this is for Joe Biden to pull out of the Presidential race, either through poor health, presssure from the #metooo movement, or cold feet, and Bernie Sanders to to replace him.
The US needs a dose of good old fashioned socialism to screw the big money end of town.
And the big money is in both Democratic and Republican camps.
They will fight like hell, use all the money and influence at their disposal to keep their gravy train going, but they will have to be wiped out.
I never thought I would say this, but there comes a time when the corrupted capitalist markets need a take down.
I had high hopes that Trump would do the swamp cleaning, but he has been no better than the predecessors.
If Socialist Bernie is the only way to do it, so be it.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 04:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Got an email from NAb this morning with enormously generous offer t

QUOTE
We understand that it's a challenging time for many of our customers. That's why we're reducing credit card minimum monthly repayments to 0.5% of your closing balance or $5 (whichever is greater).
What happens next?
This change will happen automatically on statements issued from 27 April 2020 until at least 24 July 2020. If you have a direct debit set up to pay only your minimum monthly payment we'll automatically debit the reduced amount.

It's important that you have the option to pay less during this difficult time. Please keep in mind that paying more than the minimum monthly payment will help reduce the interest you pay.
Head to nab.com.au/creditcardrepayments for info on ways to set up or change your credit card repayments.


So, anyone who has a minimum automatic deduction will end up paying even more in interest unless they read the fine print.
No mention of a reduction in the appallingly high interest charges on the balance.
The bastards just don't seem to get it.
Do they really think people are going to think the bank is doing them a favour??

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

CPH quarterly activities report makes ok reading.
Revenue from sales up nearly 800% from the previous quarter (albeit from a pretty low base).
But it sure beats it going the other way.Lots of potential sales with a product base wider than just cannabis.
Still holding, one of those I put in the bottom draw to be brought out and admired once a year at Tax prep time.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Geez H, you are getting as cynical as i am!!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From The OZ


QUOTE
Meanwhile many struggling enterprises are discovering that while staff benefit from JobKeeper they are out of pocket. So, as I will explain below, they are considering pulling out of JobKeeper -- much to the anger of staff.
Many banks are reluctant to lend to struggling enterprises to enable them to pay their April staff salaries in advance of JobKeeper in mid-May.
That situation is suddenly causing second thoughts to sweep across many small employers.

JobKeeper is one of the most innovative programs in the world and its implementation is a credit to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and the Australian Taxation Office.

But employers are suddenly discovering at the state level they are up for workers’ compensation payments for those dormant workers. And the workers’ compensation bills for dormant workers are much higher than normal when JobKeeper payments are higher than existing salaries.

At the same time many employers will need to pay payroll tax on JobKeeper. In Victoria South Australia and Western Australia the payroll tax exemption is limited to enterprises with small turnovers. In Victoria the cap is $3 million. In NSW, payment is deferred but not eliminated. In Queensland it is to be determined.

If you’re a struggling business then these payments can make the difference between survival or collapse.

Despite urging from the Prime Minister, banks are very reluctant to lend additional money to businesses that are effectively shut and will face higher charges as a result of the payroll tax and workers’ compensation bills to be eligible for JobKeeper.

But employees see JobKeeper payments as something akin to an entitlement and a way of getting a greater payment than that made available under JobSeeker. Watch for increasing anger.

I was talking to my Nephew who is a licensee of a fairly big pub here in Vic.
He has had discussions with his accountant about the Jobkeeper allowance.
The accountant reckons if this goes for six months or more, he will be out of pocket by $100k if does the job seeker thing.
Some of his casual employees, some of whom only work one or two night shifts in a month, will get far more under the package than they would have when they worked.
But he will have to pay the state controlled payroll tax on a much larger figure.
He is yet to hear back from the ATO as to how the compulsory super payments will be worked out on payments he is forced to make to employees who are not working.
So far he has made three attempts at filling out the application, because the rules keep changing.
He said he is lucky the pub closed as he is spending all of his time with his accountant, on the phone listening to the music playing app at various government departments which is interspersed with the smarmy assurance that despite the large number of calls the department is receiving, his call is valuable to them and will be answered by the next available operator.
The bank originally wanted him to take out a new credit card with a 30k limit as part of this package, "because it would be easier from an administrative perspective".
Not to mention that the interest rate charged on them is usurious.
The law of unintended consequences always strikes where you might least expect it.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

good observatiion BG, and it is happening again today.
Up 18% on low volume , low value of $1700.
Must be bots at work again.
Somebody really wants this to go higher.
Mick,
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Bit of a rally troops announcement out today.
Noted that depite the CV in US , sales are continuing at a pace.
Nothing else in there that had not been already announced.
But the fact that it aggregates all the individual announcements makes good reading.
Most of the users of edencrete have joined the team in 2020, so maybe there might be sufficient sales to warrant keeping things going.
Still doesnt' take away from the fact that in a pour of concrete worth 10 million, the Edencrete component is only about 200,00.
Gunna have to pour a lot to make real bucks.
market seemed to like it though.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Call me a snarky old suspicious fart Mr BacktoBerra, but you have one post on here , and the same post word for word on your single post on Hotcopper .
If I was looking for someone who had bought a heap of LNG on the last failed takeover by LG9 and now needs to offload it, I am afraid your posts fit bill perfectly.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 09:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Quarterly report out today shows guidance for full year unchanged, with plans for a smooth transition to mining/production at Boswell and tenements further south.
ALK at an interesting intersection.
The ADR's in Canada Exchange are being converted to underlying shares, and owners have until Jan 2021 to complete transactions.
The REMS section of its business is planned to be siphoned off into a separate entity (ASM) and listed on the ASX in the September quarter this year.
It will leave ALK as a purely copper/gold production entity.
Not sure how all this will play out, theres a fair bit going on, but will keep my stake until something comes along to urge me to offload.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 08:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

An interesting Graphic about the age demograhpics of COVID in OZ
DEMOGRAPHICS

A couple of things to notice.
1. Young people inn their 20's make up the highest number of tested infections.
2. Females in the above group were overly represented by about 20%.
3. Women in the 40's age bracket also outnumbered their male equivalents.
4. In every other age bracket, men outnumbered women, particularly amoung the aged. As women tend to oulive men by some margin, there should be lots more women in this age grouping.
5. Despite the skew in 2 and 3 above, Overall, slightly more males tested positive than females, even though there are more females than males in population.

I have contacted Ro Allen, Victoria's Commissioner for Gender and Equality to have this imbalance rectified.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 08:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437



An elderly man driving erratically was stopped by the police around 2 am and was asked where he was going at that time of night.
The man replied, “I’m on my way to a lecture about alcohol abuse and the effects it has on the human body, as well as smoking and staying out late”>
The officer then asked, “Really? Who’s giving the lecture at this time of night?”
The man replied, “That would be my wife”.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 04:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Go for it MAC, we all have different entry and exit points.
Hopefully for your sake, I don't get an opportunity to re enter below 20.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And those that took up the offer must be mighty pleased.
Record production this year, gold near all time highs, and a share price approaching 12 month highs.
Wish I had put it in my list of gold stocks.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

EVN approaching 12 month highs.
May be time to take some profits.
mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

With some really good follow up rain for the wheat belts of Vic, SA, and NSW, being forecast over the next few days, the seasons grain harvest has had an excellent start in those states.
Its got to be better than the last two years of drought, so still hopeful that GNC will do well.
The lock downs in various countries has caused lots of home cooking to be undertaken, and hence demand for flour during the lockdowns has skyrocketed.
Australia's biggest flour producer, Manildra, said sales are up by 60% on last year.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Sold out when it hit the 25mark.
Could have held till 30, but heck it doubled in the space of a few weeks, so booked the profits.
Looks like its having a breather, may get a second go if it falls below 20 again.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

3rd quarter out, still on track for 370 to 400k ounces for full year.
Given the average gold sale price is now above 2100, profits should be pretty good.
Atlantic gold has been a very nice acquisition.
AISC is in very low 900's makes it very profitable with gold still above AUD2600 an ounce.
Will keep holding at this rate.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 04:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

So who are the other two??
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 26 2020, 07:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

My daughter who is 30 ish was approached by one of her contacts on FB to participate in a Poll on who would download the app.
After she voted, the results said 96% of those who voted said they would not download it.
Don't know if the number of self selecting subjects is statistically high enough to be able to accurately infer what the wider population will do.
One of the problems is that some of the "older" citizens who have phones are probably the ones who should download the app.
However, judging by the experience I have had as a volunteer trying to teach older citizens how to use digital devices like phones and tablets, I can see problems.
Firstly, even though showing them how to connect to other devices using bluetooth, lots of them never turned it on.
They tend not to have a reason to use bluetooth, although a few hard of hearing were very pleased with the bluetooth headsets I showed them.
The other issue is they tend not to update either devices or their software, both the OS and APPS.
Sometimes their software is so out of date , you have to reset them to factory setting before doing an update.
My father still uses a flip up mobile phone that I gave to him about 10 years ago.
It does not have any data attached, because he says he only wants to make occasional phone calls.
He certainly would not have it turned on all the time, "to save the battery."
He has at least let me update the six year old android tablet, but thats only because the screen finally failed.
It a bugger getting old.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 26 2020, 10:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Was going to put this in the covid 19 thread, but thought the better of it.
From The onion


QUOTE
NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ—In a major setback to efforts to combat the relentless global pandemic, a potential Covid-19 vaccine from a major pharmaceutical giant reportedly hit a snag Thursday after extensive tests confirmed the once-promising method of inoculation was actually just a shotgun. “Despite very encouraging trials in which every subject who received the vaccine developed complete immunity to the novel coronavirus, further study has revealed several serious side effects, among them the fact that 100% of these participants also had their heads blown clean off,” said Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky, explaining that the vaccine had prevented the virus from infecting any of the brain tissue or blood that was found splattered on laboratory walls, but that researchers later discovered the immunization agent had merely been a 20-gauge double-barrel shotgun. “We don’t know for certain if the firearm’s discharge is causing this severe brain damage or if the subjects were simply predisposed to such ailments, so further study is required. But it may turn out this is one of those cases where the cure is worse than the disease. Fortunately, we will soon begin human clinical trials on other possible treatments, such as jumping off bridges and ingesting huge handfuls of tranquilizers.” In his most recent press briefing, President Trump dismissed the new findings and said Americans had “nothing to lose” if they wanted to use shotguns as a preventative measure.


Standard onion humour.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 26 2020, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From the two posts below
QUOTE
During the GFC the Russians put out a report stating, amongst other things, that a likely outcome of the crisis was the likelihood that many US states would become bankrupt and have to adjoin with other states.

and
QUOTE
'McConnell says he favors state bankruptcy over more federal aid',
'McConnell said in a radio interview that Republicans would not support giving state and local governments more
money in future coronavirus aid legislation, saying those funds could end up being used to bail out state pensions.'


the first one from the Russians, I would pretty much discount as propaganda,
The second is from a Fed rep, and a republican one at that.

On the possibility of states going bankrupt, the new Monetary policy that is favoured by Democrats among others says that there is no such thing as bankrupt, you can just keep printing money.
When you see what got tacked onto the omnibus bills that were supposed to be emergency regs to fight the Virus, (eg $25mill to the JFK centre for the performing arts), there is nothing that can't be funded if congress has a will. And who would make the filing?? Do the states themselves go into Chapter 11??? Do creditors call the state debts in? Given that so much of the unfunded liabilities are owed to state citizens in the form of pensions etc, what would they gain, and what would they lose?


As to the states merging, I see a few major problems with that.

Firstly, it would require some politicians voting themselves out of a job. That has never happened, and unlikely to ever happen.

Secondly, the Fedreation of states that makes up the USA (as in United States of America) is not at all like that of OZ.
The states have significantly more autonomy than we have here in OZ.
The supreme court has already made a ruling that states can neither unilaterally leave the the Federation, nor be unilaterally chucked out.
All states have an equal footing.
Given the difficulty that we have here in OZ on getting 6 states to agree on anything, imagine the difficulties where the number is 50. A failed state or states would have difficulty in merging with a non failed one, I mean why would one state takeover the liabilities of another state? Hell would freeeze over before that happens. You MIGHT be able to encourage two failed states to merge, but for practicalities of state boundaries, they would have to be adjoining ones. And then having merged, you now have aa larger state with a larger set of unfunded liabilities. Not really a lot of gain.

This "solution" is a rhetorical one, in the realms of "wouldn't it be great if all nations got along together".
It just aint gunna happen IMHO.

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 24 2020, 03:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Perhaps you need to up the dose slightly.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And it will be a massive problem for governments relying on inflation to allow the level of debt they have to be paid back with inflated dollars.
Governments also rely on inflation to assist with bracket creep and allow them to rake in more dough.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From ICCN Moody

QUOTE
Moody’s warned that 20% of the CLOs it covers could see some of their bonds downgraded.
This is precisely the situation many warned about as the CLO market exploded over the past decade.
Debt was a huge problem heading into the coronavirus crisis, and it’s only going to get worse.
History started repeating itself over the weekend as the leveraged debt market showed signs of crumbling. Moody’s warned that it might downgrade $22 billion worth of collateralized loan obligations (CLO). The ratings agency said that roughly 20% of the CLOs it covers could have their ratings slashed.

In other words: the corporate debt bubble is about to pop and send the U.S. economy into a deep recession.


That will not be pretty.
Just when you think things can't get worse.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Lke sent another 20000 litres of brine to put through refinery because there has been increased interest from parties in the off take..
Encouraging that more samples are being asked for.
Might take another punt on this one.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 09:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

GXY put out a barely adequte quarter results.
Although debt free and with USD!129millfinanjcial assets, production was at the low end or projections due to lower grade production.
Much to my surprise, the exec team and board have taken a 20% pay cut to reduce overheads, Something a few other companies could emulate.
Lithium prices not going anywhere for a while, so its sa steady as he goes report.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 09:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

EVN reported half yearly.
Good numbers,, free cash flow for group up 33% QOQ,AISC declined 7% QOQ, total year guidance for production unchanged.
With gold above AUD2700 an ounce, and loks like staying above that, there should be some serious upside to cash flow in the final quarter.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 05:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Don't dismiss the following arguments because they come from Catallaxy Files

The logic seems sound, the figures accurate, the conclusions rational.


QUOTE
What is becoming increasingly obvious is that shutting down travel to China on February 1 has probably done almost all of the heavy lifting in terms of limiting the virus in Australia, followed by the general ban on all overseas travel. Australia is an outlier in the Western world (being the only countries with semi-reliable data) for the small number of cases and fatalities experienced to date. Why is that? It is a question neither the government nor its expert modellers nor its health officials are prepared to explain presumably because they know the answer makes them look alarmist and foolish for having so egregiously overreacted in contravention of their own COVID National Plan call for proportionality.

Notwithstanding that Australia is an island and better able to control its borders than most, the most likely reason we have fared better is because Australia was on summer holiday when all hell broke loose in Wuhan. Why does this matter? Because the flow of Chinese travel was disproportionately out of Australia during this time (as it is every year). Students returned home, business travel was subdued owing to the Christmas break and the onset of the Australian summer holiday period, and because this period also coincides with Chinese New Year celebrations (which this year started on January 25) during which the majority of Chinese plan to remain in China and hence were not planning to travel to Australia until February. The travel ban which commenced on 1 February prevented almost 200,000 Chinese entering Australia in February.

This explains why the majority of Australian cases are not linked to China but traced to travel in the United States, Europe and on cruise ships (noting that almost two thirds of infections were acquired overseas). And because travel bans (and self isolation of inbound travellers) followed next Australia was able to largely stop the virus at the border. This is more or less reflected in the bell curve of new cases. There are zero cases in February consistent with the Chinese travel ban. New cases start trickling in over the first three weeks of March as Australians returned from ski holidays in Colorado and Europe as well as from cruise ships. Because these destinations flew under the radar by our “experts” there is a big jump in new cases between March 22 and April 2. The government introduces a total travel ban on March 19 and we see a steep fall in new cases starting on April 3 and continuing through to today, consistent with an incubation period of two to three weeks (as is generally agreed by experts).

In short, Australia was arguably spared because we are an island, our summer holiday period meant reduced business and student travel, the travel ban from China was just in time (i.e. prevented 200k arrivals) and although a tad slow on Europe and US travel bans (and notwithstanding the Ruby Princess fiasco) shutting down the borders worked. Incremental gains were achieved by social distancing measures and public awareness of the importance of good hygiene at relatively low cost. However, the draconian shutting down of the rest of economy has arguably had very little if any meaningful impact but has come at a massively disproportionate cost.


The absurdities of some of the reaction from governments continue.
Was talking to my Brother in law yesterday who lives in one of the Twin cities on the Border of Victoria and New South Wales.
His daughter works as the accountant(bursar?) at a school across the border.
The Police stopped her and demanded that she show some form of proof that she had a legitimate reason for crossing the Murray into another state.
The pile of school papers on the seat beside her was not enough,
Fortunately she was able to show that one of the 8 million emails she had from the headmaster on her laptop had scheduled a meeting of all non teaching staff for that day.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 22 2020, 11:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

SLR Increasing its expected full yer sales to 250,000 to 260,000.
Market obviously likes it, I may have sold too early. but hey, a profit is a profit.
Was hoping to buy back in cheaper, looks that that may not happen for a while.
Other gold stocks been down, so its a very good result.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 22 2020, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And down the snake it goes.
Had a low ball order at 71 partially filled on the open, much to my surprise.
Don't know why it got crunched, had some more good drilling results out today, but the market seems to just be weird ATM.
mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 11:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And right on cue, the FEDS have thrown a lifeline to REX.
From ABC NEWS
QUOTE
The Federal Government has thrown airline Regional Express (Rex) a funding lifeline, to continue servicing airports in regional Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Commonwealth Grant Agreement was signed under the COVID-19 Regional Airline Network Support (RANS) program and will see the Government pay for Rex to continue to operate 1-2 return services a week to most destinations on the Rex network.

The Queensland, Western Australian, and South Australian State Governments have also committed to fund further flights on top of what the Federal Government package is providing, with details set to be confirmed at a later date.

In a statement, Rex deputy chairman John Sharp said the funding has saved the airline from cutting services to many smaller regional communities.

"All regional and remote communities owe the Deputy Prime Minister and the Morrison Government a great debt of gratitude for providing funding to ensure they continue to receive minimal essential air links to the capital cities for medical, professional and educational needs," he said.


Remember that sage advice from airline industry
:
" to make a small fortune in the aviation businesss, you need to start with a large fotune".
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

You are being too harsh on us EB, No one likes to see others lose money, except perhaps for drug dealers and casino operators (no difference really).
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 09:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Don Stammer writingin Todays OZ
QUOTE
1. Recall the lessons of history

This isn’t the first time the world economy has slowed abruptly or investment markets have been gripped by panic. Usually, the majority view during the crisis was that any recovery would be drawn out and partial; afterwards, the world would be very different; and we’d have to grapple with an austere and unpleasant “new normal”.

Reality rarely turned out to be as bad as what had been feared. Asset prices and economic conditions usually strengthened sooner than expected. Most aspects of business and investing reverted to familiar themes. In retrospect, each crisis was a time for investors to buy quality shares, not sell them.

Here are four examples from the past half-century. In the global financial crisis of 2008, the prevailing view was it would be followed by a decade or two of low and interrupted economic growth, high and sustained unemployment, and negligible returns from shares. In fact, the outcome was 10 years of (admittedly moderate) economic growth, strong gains in jobs, and a bull market in shares.

In 2001, the terrorist attacks on the US were thought likely to leave a world that “would never be the same again”, but that didn’t happen. In October 1987, sharemarkets collapsed — our share prices plunged 25 per cent in 25 minutes — evoking expectations that, like the crash of 1929, a great depression would follow; it didn’t. In the 1970s, when oil prices increased sixfold, the prosperity of western economies seemed doomed, and “stagflation” was thought to be a lasting affliction, but stagflation was beaten and oil prices didn’t keep on going up.

2. Watch the key numbers on the pandemic

It’s early days yet, but the pandemic seems to have eased its grip in China, where it originated, and appears to be topping out in Europe and the US. Australia and New Zealand have kept rates of infection and of deaths at levels well below the global averages. But further outbreaks could occur; investors should keep watch on how numbers of people with the coronavirus virus are trending.

3. Carefully watch what happens as recently introduced rules are relaxed

Until a vaccine is found, and can be mass-produced, relaxation of stay-at-home rules and social distancing requirements will be risky. A staged easing will be required, with governments getting rid of measures that have little effect on the rate of new infections but which can reduce the economic and social costs of the pandemic.

4. Watch for signs of the economic upturn, but expect markets to remain preoccupied with negative economic data

Worldwide, the shift to supportive macro-economic policies is on an unprecedented scale. For example, the US, Japanese and Australian governments are each increasing their discretionary spending by more than 10 per cent of GDP; if required, additional funds will be made available. At some stage — in my view, around the end of 2020 — a significant impact will be felt on global economic activity.

In coming months, however, sharemarkets are likely to pay more attention to bleak reports on how much economic conditions have weakened, on the ­downgrades in corporate earnings, and in Australia on exaggerating the prospective cuts in dividends.

5. Be on the lookout to buy quality shares while they’re cheap

It’s likely the turbulent times in sharemarkets will continue for quite a while. Investors with cash and who understand the risks will have opportunities.

Howard Marks, who has long experience as an investor, recently summarised his thinking this way: “Terrible news makes it hard to buy and causes many people to say, ‘I am not going to catch a falling knife’. But it also pushes prices to absurdly low levels. That’s why I so like the headline ‘When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to’. It’s not easy to buy when the news is terrible, prices are collapsing and it’s impossible to have an idea where the bottom lies. But doing so should be the investor’s greatest aspiration. The bottom line for me is that I’m not at all troubled saying (a) markets may well be lower sometime in coming months and (b) we’re buying today when we find good value. I don’t find these statements inconsistent.”

6. Be thinking about, but not yet acting on, later implications of the unwinding of fiscal and monetary largesse now under way

The fiscal and monetary largesse governments are — necessarily — now dispensing will need to be unwound and ultimately reversed over coming years. My next column will outline the long-term implications, but my present focus as an investor is on getting across the “bridge” we hear a lot about, and also the first set of hills.


Not a bad set of points I reckon.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

There is of course REX.
The main reason they didn't do more capital city runs was the lack of landing/takeoff off slots at Melb, Bris and Sinney.
Now with Virgin gone, virtually no international flights in o or out of OZ, there are plenty of slots.
The airport owners would be almost giving them away with a free set of steak knives.
Rex might even be able to pick up some cheap jets and crews to go with them.
They already have an AOC, are used to dealing with the goons from CASA, have a large academy training more pilots in Wagga and Ballarat, and is used tio losing money (essential for any airline).
And they would not have to be banished to Terminal 4 at Melb.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

henrietta, when the lock down eases and we can take the 4wd and campers out again, it's going to be a mad rush North.
Never get in between the grey nomads and a free camp site..
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 08:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

All of the posts I could be bothered going back to read have been about the same company, ideanomics.
You don't happen to have lot of shares in this co by any chance??
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Wow, I had pencilled in brambles as one of the stocks for a possible gain from the virus.
Just goes to show that it is really difficult picking winners.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 19 2020, 10:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Now heres a practical idea for those people working at home.
From Framery\
comes the modern equivalent of Maxwell Smarts Cone of silence.
And they come in various sizes - right up to to the big one.


Gotta be a winner!

Mind you not sure how the social distancing rules apply in the mega pods.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 19 2020, 09:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

They are politicians. Do you seriously believe any of their bullshit??
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 19 2020, 07:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I have written a couple of times about emails I have received from acquaintances in South Africa.
There seemed to be a significantly lower level of infections and deaths in South Africa which some had attributed to mass TB Innoculations.
Image my surprise this morning when perusing the The Australian to see a headline stating

QUOTE
Cases surpass 20,000 in South Africa


But when i read the body of the report it seems that the figures quoted are for all of Africa.

The latest reports I got from the bloke said that in a country about 2.5 times the population of Australia with a tenth of the medical facilities, they had less than half the number of confirmed cases and slightly less number of deaths.
Sloppy reporting OZ, I expect better from an org that continually hangs it on every other media org.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 18 2020, 10:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Your are cheating.
You have co-opted someone else's conspiracy.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From ABC News

QUOTE
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has not ruled out making the Government's coronavirus tracing app compulsory for all Australians.

The contact tracing app will use people's GPS data to tell health authorities who has been in close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case, and who may need to be tested.

The Government has said 40 per cent of Australians would need to sign up to the app for it to have enough data to function properly.

When asked if the panel of health experts advising the Government was considering recommending the app be compulsory if less than 40 per cent of people signed up, Professor Kelly said making it voluntary at first was "the way to go".

"I've always been a believer in the Australian people making the right decision," he said.

The Government has said the app, if successful, could lead to an early easing of social-distancing restrictions.



WTF?? The deputy CMO is running the country now??I will go to jail before I download a compulsory tracking app.
The govt had better tell the CMO to stick to medical stuff, and butt out of Fascism.

A pissed off Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From AFR
QUOTE
The chairman of Australia's largest bank has warned the government against opening up the economy too soon, saying the "current optimism is based on a very limited data set".

Commonwealth Bank chairman Catherine Livingstone has also urged Prime Minister Scott Morrison and state premiers to use the COVID-19 crisis as an opportunity to reduce the Australian economy's reliance on a few key industries such as mining.


Why on earth should we take medical advice from the chairperson of a Bank that has screwed its customers for years and thumbed its nose at regulators.
I don't ask my Doctor for Financial advice.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 11:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Sprott money are harping on about the iminent collapse of the paper derivitive gold market.
Maybe THIS time they are right.
From Sprott Money


QUOTE
These are dark times for The Bullion Banks. Their Fractional Reserve and Digital Derivative Pricing Scheme is in great peril as refineries, miners, and mints all shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Will these Banks be able to scrounge up enough physical metal to keep their scheme afloat through June? That remains an open question.

You may recall that we've been warning of the outrageous volume of COMEX EFPs (Exchange For Physical) for years. For the calendar years 2018 and 2019, the COMEX swapped out over 14,000 metric tonnes of contracts for alleged "physical metal" in London. And this process grew even more extreme in 2020, as the first three weeks of the month saw 290,000 COMEX gold contracts "exchanged" this way. Here's the link from the last post dedicated to this subject, written on March 10: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comex-gold-efp-us...

For today's discussion, let's begin with a brief, simplified summary of how we got here over the past few weeks: • The Banks swap 290,000 COMEX contracts (over 900 metric tonnes) into EFPs in just the first fifteen trading days of March.
The Fed announces QE∞ on Monday, March 23. COMEX gold price soars over $100.
A party or parties seek actual, immediate delivery of COMEX 100-oz bars through EFP.
COMEX must admit that it has no 100-oz bars to deliver on Tuesday, March 24.
CME and LBMA make a joint announcement on Wednesday, March 25 that a new settlement contract will be introduced for Apr20 delivery. This contract will feature "delivery" of fractional ownership of 400-oz London bars.In short, with an unexpected global supply squeeze, the COMEX was caught without enough deliverable gold. Through the change of rules shown above, the exchange (and CME/LBMA) have been able to scrape together enough gold to maintain the illusion of physical delivery thus far through the Apr20 delivery period. But it hasn't been easy. As you can see below, there have already been nearly 30,000 contracts delivered this month...more than 3X the average volume of Aprils past.
As the supply squeeze continues—with many mines and refineries still shut down—the COMEX should expect these delivery issues to continue in May and June. Already we're seeing total open interest of the "non-delivery month" of May20 surge—going from 1,228 contracts late last week to over 4,500 contracts on Monday, April 13. What will happen if this number surges above 10,000 in the days before deliveries begin on April 30?COMEX Search & Seizure - Craig Hemke (April 14, 2020)
COMEX Search & Seizure - Craig Hemke (April 14, 2020)
By Craig Hemke 2 days ago 54409 Views 4 comments
April 14, 2020

These are dark times for The Bullion Banks. Their Fractional Reserve and Digital Derivative Pricing Scheme is in great peril as refineries, miners, and mints all shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Will these Banks be able to scrounge up enough physical metal to keep their scheme afloat through June? That remains an open question.

You may recall that we've been warning of the outrageous volume of COMEX EFPs (Exchange For Physical) for years. For the calendar years 2018 and 2019, the COMEX swapped out over 14,000 metric tonnes of contracts for alleged "physical metal" in London. And this process grew even more extreme in 2020, as the first three weeks of the month saw 290,000 COMEX gold contracts "exchanged" this way. Here's the link from the last post dedicated to this subject, written on March 10: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comex-gold-efp-us...

For today's discussion, let's begin with a brief, simplified summary of how we got here over the past few weeks: • The Banks swap 290,000 COMEX contracts (over 900 metric tonnes) into EFPs in just the first fifteen trading days of March.
The Fed announces QE∞ on Monday, March 23. COMEX gold price soars over $100.
A party or parties seek actual, immediate delivery of COMEX 100-oz bars through EFP.
COMEX must admit that it has no 100-oz bars to deliver on Tuesday, March 24.
CME and LBMA make a joint announcement on Wednesday, March 25 that a new settlement contract will be introduced for Apr20 delivery. This contract will feature "delivery" of fractional ownership of 400-oz London bars.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-c...wn-sources-2020
In short, with an unexpected global supply squeeze, the COMEX was caught without enough deliverable gold. Through the change of rules shown above, the exchange (and CME/LBMA) have been able to scrape together enough gold to maintain the illusion of physical delivery thus far through the Apr20 delivery period. But it hasn't been easy. As you can see below, there have already been nearly 30,000 contracts delivered this month...more than 3X the average volume of Aprils past.
As the supply squeeze continues—with many mines and refineries still shut down—the COMEX should expect these delivery issues to continue in May and June. Already we're seeing total open interest of the "non-delivery month" of May20 surge—going from 1,228 contracts late last week to over 4,500 contracts on Monday, April 13. What will happen if this number surges above 10,000 in the days before deliveries begin on April 30?
And what will happen if the next "delivery month" of Jun20 sees more delivery requests than the COMEX is fielding here in April? What if there is a demand for 40,000 or 50,000 deliveries? That would be 5,000,000 ounces. From where would COMEX source the gold then?

For now, an unprecedented disconnect continues to exist between the spot and front month futures price. This is indicative of tight supply and a failure of confidence in future delivery. This was the topic of last week's article. You continue to be told by System Apologists that "the gold is there, it's just in the wrong place". This is alleged to be the reason for the spread in price and the issues at COMEX. Oh, really? If that's the case, then there must be a shortage of silver, too, and it must also be "in the wrong place". The current spread shown below is more than 2% and even larger than the current spot-future spread in gold!
And these Apologists also claim that everything the CME/LBMA does is totally transparent and honest, with the moves such as fractional ownership of London bars just simply a nice new service that The Banks are providing. RRRrrriiiggghhhttt. If that was the case, then why is the CME/LBMA demanding complete secrecy from the CFTC regarding this new arrangement? Thanks to the guys at BullionStar, see the information below:

“COMEX secures secrecy agreement with CFTC under FOIA not to release details to the public of its market maker program for the new 400 oz gold futures contract hatched with LBMA, because ‘Disclosure Would Likely Cause Competitive Harm to COMEX’. Program begins tomorrow April 13. pic.twitter.com/QEuEyGz64m”

— BullionStar (@BullionStar) April 12, 2020
So if everything is just fine , and the delivery issue is simply being caused by gold "being in the wrong place" and the exchanges are forthright and honest brokers, THEN WHY WOULD CME/LBMA DEMAND PROTECTION FROM FREEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT (FOIA) REQUESTS?

I'll tell you why... BECAUSE IT'S ALL ONE BIG MASSIVE SCAM! The Bullion Banks have managed a just-in-time delivery scheme through increasingly mind-blowing amounts of promissory notes, delivery receipts, and unallocated accounts. For Pete's sake, the LBMA actually admitted to a total trading volume of 32,255 METRIC TONNES of gold IN MARCH ALONE! That's an annualized run rate of over 380,000 METRIC TONNES or about 135 years of global annual mine supply! WHAT?!?!

“You need to take a second. Stop what you're doing. Let this sink in. In March, the LBMA traded 1.04 Billion ounces of ‘gold’. That's 32,255 metric tonnes. In one month. That's an annualized run rate of 387,060 METRIC TONNES!! 138 YEARS of mine supply.


The last sentence is the most important.
Its that divergence between reality and digital gold that will be the killer.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 09:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Agh, the ethics involved with gambling institutions.
From The OZ

QUOTE
Crown Resorts will push ahead with the payment of a $205m interim dividend to investors, including about $70m to major shareholder James Packer, despite standing down 11,500 employees and registering for the federal government’s JobKeeper payment scheme.

Rival The Star Entertainment Group also said on Thursday that 8500 of its staff were being stood down, meaning the two casino giants have stood down a combined 20,000 employees.

The move means about 95 per cent of the respective workforces of the gambling and hotel resort company’s are out of work.

Crown is going ahead with its dividend given it has already been declared, its shares have traded ex-dividend and a new $1bn in debt refinancing gave it a relatively strong balance sheet that will include about $300m in cash after the 30c-per-share dividend is paid on Friday.

Crown also said 1300 people remained on the construction site at Barangaroo in Sydney, working to complete the $2.2bn Crown Sydney casino and luxury hotel development by the original target of the end of the year, despite some recent temporary stoppages after some workers tested positive for the coronavirus.

Both companies also revealed pay cuts for senior executives and board members, though The Star went further than Crown, which said chief executive Ken Barton would take a 20 per cent pay cut at least until the end of June as part of a raft of measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.


Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

sorry Nipper, it was a poor attempt at a pun.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 08:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

My understanding was he wanted to adjourn both houses so as he can just approve all the appointments he put up.
From TIME
QUOTE
WASHINGTON) — Citing the coronavirus, Donald Trump is threatening unprecedented action — adjourning both houses of Congress — to entice the Senate to approve more of his nominees.

In recent years, Congress has refused to fully adjourn during most breaks precisely to prevent the president from making recess appointments. Little or no business is conducted in such “pro-forma sessions,” but they give members of both chambers of Congress the chance to go back home without going into recess.

It’s a process lawmakers also employed to thwart President Barack Obama’s nominees.

Trump says he’s had enough and warns that he will seek to adjourn both chambers of Congress if lawmakers don’t formally declare a proper recess. That way, he could appoint some nominees without the Senate’s approval. Trump said, “Perhaps it’s never been done before, nobody’s even sure if it has, but we’re going to do it.”

The Constitution does not spell out a unilateral power for the president to adjourn Congress. It states only that he can decide on adjournment if there is a dispute over it between the House and Senate. Such a disagreement does not now exist, nor is it likely to arise.

Constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley said on Twitter the Constitution gives a president authority in “extraordinary occasions” to convene or adjourn Congress. However, he said, “This power has never been used and should not be used now.”

edited to add the following:
According to WWashington post
there are 82 positions that are waiting on confirmation.
There are also 150 positions for which no nomination has been made by the trump administration

Adjourning congress would not neccessarily gove him the ability to postpone or cancel the elections.
You can guarantee the supreme court would stymie that one, no matter how many conservatives he stacks it with.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 07:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Youre not thinking of Bob Marley are you??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 07:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Trump, Biden, Congress, etc are all irrelevant.
The problems with the US are not health or even politics.
The biggest problem is the takeover of the Financial system by the megabanks.
The US federal Banking system has bought the treasury and we have the ridiculous situation where the plebs in the USA are to be given some 535 billion dollars.
A lot you might say, until you realise that the NY fed has issued 4.3 TRILLION dollars to keep their banks afloat.
And who owns the NY Fed??
The US mega banks.
Talk about corruption.
The biggest fear I have is what happens when the US starts to implode.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 06:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Having had the unfortunate experience of spending a little time in Mali, I would question that somewhat!.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 03:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

DCN approaching the SPP of 0.30,
The ultimate irony will be for the price to drop below it making life difficult for the stag profiteers.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 15 2020, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From that low of 55 cents on march 20 (barely three weeks ago). the AUD has climbed to a high oh 65.5, it has fallen 1.5% in a short time this evening.
It may well go down further as the US markets open.
it has no love - maybe the reports from the IMF that it will drop6.5% GDP this year was the trigger.
Means that gold is back above 2700 in AUD terms, something I rather like.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 15 2020, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

SLR Approaching all time intraday high of 1.795.
Time to take the profits me thinks.
Been a great run.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I hope like hell he is a long way ahead of the mark.
If gold does go to 10k an ounce, it probably means that the majority of the societal institutions have failed, and a general sense of anarchy has prevailed.
It doesn't take much for humans to revert to the level of savages, as history has shown.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 07:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Yeah, if it wasn't a dinner party, there must have been some fairly serious departure from isolation protocols to produce such a big and concentrated cluster.
Not sure if we will ever find the truth, too many reputations at stake for that to happen.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 07:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Thanks triage, my other goldies went up enough today to nuetralise the DCN loss.
Gradually selling out when I make a profit.
Want to get back to 80%+ cash, then sit back and wait for the phase two.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 02:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

So mathematically correct.
QUOTE
Decimation is only 10%; I'm hoping for 90% evisceration.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Sold out of DCN at relisting for a substantial loss.
Moved on, it is dead and buried, not to be resurrected.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 12:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Now I am getting excited.
Up 20% today.
Took some profits off the table, too good to pass up.
Still have a few, so don't mind if it goes up further.
Looking to surpass the 1.15 high from earlier this year before the virus hit.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 11:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

If the cruise business gets decimated ( hopefully they do), what are all the wealthy geriatrics going to do to pass their time??
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I responded and asked them to donate my share to the WHO.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 11:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

got this scam in email today.
Didn't take long for the Nigerians to take advantage of the Covid 19
Mick



UNITED NATIONS COMPENSATION COMMISSION
United Nations Organization
UNCC Secretariat.
Date: 2020/04/09
Good Day
REGISTERED CLAIM NR: 5678IM
PAYMENT OF US$ 1,900,000 .00 (One Million, Nine Hundred Thousand United States Dollars)
Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy 18 Feb 2020 (UN Information Service) -- The United Nations
Compensation Commission has made available a total of $199,164,829.35 to 14 governments for distribution to 32,859
successful beneficiaries.
Payment is being made in respect of 139 claims in category “A” (claims of individuals for departure from Kuwait or Iraq),
31,880 claims in category “C” (claims of individuals for damages up to $100,000), including 31,715 “Bedouin” claims, 785
claims in category “D” (claims of individuals, both victims of fraud and various cases of Local and International scams
and for damages above $100,000), 41 claims in category “E” (claims of corporations, other private legal entities and public
sector enterprises) and 14 claims in category “F” (claims of governments and international organizations).
This payment is being made in accordance with the Governing Councils decision 227, which extended the temporary
payment mechanism set out by the Governing Council in its decision 197, under which up to $200 million from the
Compensation Fund will be made available for the payment of claims every quarter. In the present round of payment, all
newly approved claims, i.e., claims approved for payment at the fifty-sixth session, will receive $1.9 million or the principal
amount of the award, if less. Additional funds will be disbursed to the claimants whose claims were approved from the fortyeighth to the fifty-fifth sessions, also bringing the total payment to each of them up to a maximum of $1.9 million. In order to
fully disburse the available funds, the claims will be paid up to $2 million, depending on the order in which they have been
approved.
Based on our latest investigation we have realized that the corruption in various arms of the government in many countries
has made it impossible for the circulation of these funds to reach the less privileged and delegated NGOs, in our quest to
curb this corruption we resulted to using individual beneficiaries and private companies, who are selected to be our
beneficiary.
Our private beneficiaries would receive the above funds and choose two local based NGOs (less privileged homes) of their
choice to donate 60% of the amount and keep 40% as a compensation from the UN.
A UN Debit MasterCard has been pre-approved with the amount of US$ 1,900,000 .00 (One Million, Nine Hundred
Thousand United States Dollars) and it would be fully activated and sent to your designated address via speed courier
service if you accept to act as our private beneficiary.
Upon full activation of the UN Debit MasterCard, you would be able to make ATM withdrawal and transfers of the funds.
If you accept our preposition, then you can contact the below appointed officer for full activation of your Debit Card and
further directives.
Officer: Mr. Benjamin Sesay
Tel: +357 22 052558
Email: uncc@swissmail.com
Thank you and best regards
Tobias Adrian (Financial Counsel
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

IVC in trading halt pending a capital raising. SPP to follow.
Bet it won't be the only co strengthening its balance sheet in this environment.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 13 2020, 03:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

from Jo Nova

It seems that those hoping for the herd immunity solution may be barking up the wrong tree.



QUOTE
Herd Immunity is not realistic
For the first time we have true randomized testing –and it shows that Austria was officially picking up about a quarter of the real number of infections in the population. So when Austria was officially saying 7,000 were infected, the true number was 28,500. Finally, this puts a solid limit on the chance that asymptomatic rate of infection was high. There is no iceberg.

About 75% of cases were mild or truly asymptomatic (and thus not getting officially tested), but it was still only a small slice of the population — just one third of one percent.

Less than 1% of Austrians infected with coronavirus, study shows

The co-founder of Sora, Christoph Hofinger, told a news conference: “Based on this study, we believe that 0.33% of the population in Austria was acutely infected in early April.” Given the margin of error, the figure was 95% likely to be between 0.12% and 0.76%.

99% of the population is still vulnerable
The Austrian chancellor estimates only 1% of the population had had the infection (presumably he is including an estimate of people who had already had the virus, cleared it, and tested negative).

The Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, who saw initial findings a few days ago, said on Monday that the rate of infection was around 1%. This disproved the idea of herd immunity, which requires widespread infection, as a viable policy option, he said.

Austria has sampled 1,554 people with help from a polling company from April 1 – 6. The nose and throat swabs they used will have found active infections, not past ones. But the peak of infections was March 26, so this will still have included some, perhaps many, of those people who were infected the week before. It depends on how long people shed virus for, and like everything with this virus, that’s not simple. Some people shed for a long time even weeks, but others don’t.

Ten times worse than the flu
Austria has officially recorded 6,941 cases in total of which 337 have died. So the mortality rate for diagnosed cases is 5% and likely to rise due to the lag of one to two weeks (and even longer) before deaths occur. So the mortality rate of all infections (including asymptomatic) is more like 1.2%, making this at least ten times deadlier than the flu. (It may be worse if Austria was able to protect the 80+ and other vulnerable groups).

Hopefully new treatments will improve that.

We can see that testing around 1 – 6th April should give a realistic estimate of the scale of infections. Nose and throat swabs are probably a PCR test looking for two RNA segments unique to the virus. PCR means Polymerase Chain Reaction, where small amounts of DNA or RNA get amplified up so they can be tested.

Austria was among the early movers in Europe to try to contain the outbreak, clamping down on public life and enforcing social distancing when cases were still in the hundreds and few had died. The country will start to relax some of the measures next week, when small shops and hardware and gardening stores can reopen, but it will keep schools and other stores closed until May.

The only way to figure out the true rate of asymptomatic infections is with an antibody test (also known as a serum test), but that’s not possible yet, though many labs are reportedly close. These tests require a blood sample, but will hopefully show how many people were exposed to the virus, at least for a few months after the infection.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 13 2020, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And as to be expected, the parasitic law firms are lining up in droves to start the COVID-19 based class action suits.
From ABC News
QUOTE
Shine Lawyers, who are taking on a class action on behalf of Ruby Princess passengers, said 19 overseas guests had registered with them, including people who had tested positive.

A spokeswoman for the law firm said the potential of the spread worldwide from the ship was "alarming".

"Members of the public in Sydney and abroad were unknowingly exposed to the virus as a result of these passengers' release," she said.

She said people from the US, UK and New Zealand had contacted them after either becoming confirmed cases or experiencing symptoms.


Law firms are only one step above the pharma companies when it comes top profiteering from a disaster.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 13 2020, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Ya gotta love a good conspiracy theory. Eat ya heart out plastic!
From The Daily Mail

QUOTE
The laboratory at the centre of scrutiny over the pandemic has been carrying out research on bats from the cave which scientists believe is the original source of the devastating outbreak.

Documents obtained by The Mail on Sunday show the Wuhan Institute of Virology undertook coronavirus experiments on mammals captured more than 1,000 miles away in Yunnan – funded by a $3.7 million grant from the US government.

Sequencing of the Covid-19 genome has traced it to bats found in Yunnan's caves.

It comes after this newspaper revealed last week that Ministers here now fear that the pandemic could have been caused by a virus leaking from the institute.

Senior Government sources said that while 'the balance of scientific advice' was still that the deadly virus was first transmitted to humans from a live animal market in Wuhan, an accident at the laboratory in the Chinese city was 'no longer being discounted'.
According to one unverified claim, scientists at the institute could have become infected after being sprayed with blood containing the virus, and then passed it on to the local community.
Now The Mail on Sunday has learned that scientists there experimented on bats as part of a project funded by the US National Institutes of Health, which continues to licence the Wuhan laboratory to receive American money for experiments.

Results of the research were published in November 2017 under the heading: 'Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus.'

The exercise was summarised as: 'Bats in a cave in Yunnan, China were captured and sampled for coronaviruses used for lab experiments.

'All sampling procedures were performed by veterinarians with approval from the Animal Ethics Committee of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

'Bat samplings were conducted ten times from April 2011 to October 2015 at different seasons in their natural habitat at a single location (cave) in Kunming, Yunnan Province, China. Bats were trapped and faecal swab samples were collected.'

Another study, published in April 2018, was titled 'fatal swine acute diarrhoea syndrome caused by an HKU2-related coronavirus of bat origin' and described the research as such: 'Following a 2016 bat-related coronavirus outbreak on Chinese pig farms, bats were captured in a cave and samples were taken.

Experimenters grew the virus in a lab and injected it into three-day-old piglets. Intestinal samples from sick piglets were ground up and fed to other piglets as well.'Senior Ministers say that while the latest intelligence does not dispute the virus was 'zoonotic' – originating in animals – it no longer rules out that the virus first spread to humans after leaking from a Wuhan laboratory.

Last week, further doubt was cast on the animal market theory after Cao Bin, a doctor at the Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, highlighted research showing that 13 of the first 41 patients diagnosed with the infection had not had any contact with the market. 'It seems clear that the seafood market is not the only origin of the virus,' he said.

The £30 million Wuhan Institute of Virology, the most advanced laboratory of its type on the Chinese mainland, is based ten miles from the now infamous wildlife market.


I gather the biggest issue is the fact that they used cute piglets as tests.
PETA is not happy.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 09:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

We are in uncharted waters, and nobody really knows what the outcome will be.
I have seen just about every outcome possible put forward (including a complete takeover of the world by (-----) fill in the blanks.
Someone will fluke the outcome, and parrott on with the smug "I told you so" smirk.
Just like those parasites at Get Up bragging that the only reason the govt brought out its stimulus package is because they have been pushing for it all along.
The only thing you can really do is to spread your risk.
Bit of gold, a few stocks, some realestate, a bit of cash, some govt bonds, maybe a firearm or two.
Not all of them will prosper, and some will be downright bad, but we really don't know which.
I bam now pretty much back to where I was at the start of year, minus some cash i have dished outbto my kids who are out of work.
I am keeping cash in case I have to bail them out of house loans.
Whatever happens, people still need a roof over their heads.
There will be inequality in winners and losers. Unfortunately many of the losers will be in the so called gif economy.
Very few of the losers will people in government employ.
Not many of those will even have their pay cut, much less lose their jobs.
As more and more people become dependent on the government, elections will be won and lost on who looks after those government dependants the most.
For those who have never read Ayn Rands Atlas Shrugged, now might be good time to pick up a copy and have good read,.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

One of my kids just told me on a Zoom call that their contemporaries call the Virus, "The boomer Remover"
Kids can be so cruel!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 10 2020, 02:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Do you really think you can do a jigsaw for 3 to 5 years?
I couldn't last that long.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 10 2020, 08:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

This from a poster on another site commenting on the CVAP vs Ventillator debate .

QUOTE
Watching the epidemic bite….

I am tracking the UK official Total Mortality rates, since these are the only meaningful indicator of what is happening in this country. In the absence of large-scale testing activity the ‘number of infections’ is not a reliable indicator, and deaths due to Covid-19 infection are both estimates, and confounded by the fact that these mainly occur amongst those who are susceptible to respiratory disease, and who already have co-morbidities.

Amongst such people there is invariably a rise in death rate during the winter months. The advantage of tracking Total Mortality is that it should show if this increase is excessive compared to other winters, and, if so, by how much.

The disadvantage of tracking this figure is that it is reported a week in arrears, and comprises deaths which, if caused by an infection, presumably started their track a week or so earlier. So the figure describes the situation about a fortnight ago. I still feel that is is a useful balance to the headline figures which are provided to the public with no comparisons.

PHE has just produced its Week 14 report. This shows increased mortality amongst the 65+ age group in England – though the increase is less than in the small flu epidemic we had at the end of 2019. They note no increase for any group in Wales, N Ireland or Scotland (though the Scottish figures look to be a bit delayed).

Specifically, PHE say:

“..In week 13 2020 in England, statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the upper 2 z-score threshold was seen overall, by age group in the 65+ year olds and sub nationally (all ages) in the North West, East & West Midlands, London and South East regions…”

This sounds as if everybody is being affected. But their later table clearly shows no increase amongst any age group below 65 years. So I interpret their statement to mean that the increase in 65+ deaths pulls up the Total Deaths to a significant increase on its own, with no contribution from lower ages.

They also note the several geographic areas which show an increase. There are areas with large cities in them – I suspect that these are where the increase is occurring.

So, as of last week, Total Mortality figures show an increase in respiratory infection deaths amongst the elderly lower than, but broadly in line with the increase we had in Autumn last year. Let us see what next week’s figures will bring….


Would like to see a few more stats from other countries broken down into ages, regions etc.

Given so much of what is being put in place to counteract what the models are predicting, it would be good to get a little hindcasting going to see if we put too much store on pandemic modelling.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 04:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

It seems Jesus was hiding at a party in Venezuela.
From theAustralian
comes a story about the jetsetting elites holding a big party on a carribbean island

QUOTE
Among the young revellers was Jesus Amoroso, son of Mr Mad­uro’s top anti-corruption official, who has been sanctioned by the US Treasury Department for allegedly undermining Venezuela’s demo­c­racy.


Ask and you shall receive.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 02:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The difference between shareholders and investors ....
AirBNB is one of theose companies where the "experts' readily admit that it is unlikely to ever make a profit.
So why would you invest int?
Certainly as a shareholder it seems like pissing your money up against the wall.
However, as an investor, there is a way to make money out of airbnb.
From The OZ

QUOTE
Airbnb has agreed to pay its new investors interest of more than 10 per cent and to strengthen its leadership in return for the $US1bn in additional funding announced on Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.

The investors will also get warrants that can be converted into shares with a valuation for the company of $US18bn, a drop of almost half since Airbnb’s last fundraising in 2017.

The terms of the financing, which haven’t been previously reported, show the distress the homesharing company is under due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Airbnb said on Monday that it raised $US1bn in funding from private equity firms Silver Lake and Sixth Street Partners to bolster its finances, after the coronavirus pandemic up-ended its business model.

The San Francisco-based company had also had preliminary discussions with several investors about raising more capital, a person close to the negotiations said.

Airbnb had planned to start trading publicly this year. Instead, it has raised money privately at a lower valuation than the $US31bn price tag of its last 2017 fundraising round, sources said.

10% for your money, must be considered one hell of a risk
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

ALK releasing more reasonable drilling results. Starting to flesh out how big the resource area is.
Needs a bit more work before I get excited.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Don't bother Triage, I vented my spleen to some poor bugger at Dacian headquarters over the phone yesterday.
I have lost about 60k, so decided to move on and make it up somewhere else.
I know somewhere I have an old unsigned contract with the devil for 1 soul.
Will see if I can dig it out.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Can't wait until people start quoting Krugman and the other MMT supporters as to why they don't have to pay back their bank loans, car loans, debts to the ATO ....
Geez, you could even say your rent on a house is a "loan", nd therefore you don't have to pay it back!
Looking good.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From my fav currency guru, Chuck Butler, from the Daily Pfennig newsletter


QUOTE
The currencies had a good day yesterday, adding onto their gains from the night before… I have to say that this is the first time I’ve seen a good trading day for the currencies following good overnight trading for the currencies, in what seems like a month of Sundays! I’ll tell you one thing, economists and analysts are split down the middle, with ½ of them saying the dollar is King, will remain King, no questions asked, and the other ½ of them saying that once the Oil contracts begin to take the dollar out of the picture, and trading countries us their own currencies, then the trap door springs on the dollar, and suddenly, everyone begins to fret about all the debt the U.S. accumulated….

So, go ahead and pick your side…. I’m of the opinion that we’re going to see a change in the financial system, and that dollars won’t play as big a part as they do now…. This has been going on for some time now folks…. You see, the Fed, was bailing out foreign entities, without Congress or the public knowing about it, back in 2008…. Well, the President has put a stop to that, and even with the Fed’s new Unlimited amount that they can buy, they had better make sure it’s only from U.S. Corporations/ banks…. This lack of dollars overseas has become a real problem… There’s a ton of dollar denominated debt coming due overseas, and they don’t have enough dollars to pay them off…. So, what will these foreign entities do? They will search for ways to go around dollars, so that this never happens again…. Uh-oh….. And that will be the beginning chip to be thrown on the poker table, that will lead to a big pot, that causes a collapse of our financial system…. I’m just saying…


From NY TIMES
QUOTE
HONG KONG — Companies in the Asia Pacific need to raise a near record $69.3 billion to refinance their existing borrowings in the second quarter, Refinitiv figures show, as the region's capital markets remain turbulent due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The level of U.S. dollar corporate debt due to mature in the region, including Japan and China, is the second highest on record and only slightly behind the $71.4 billion that was due during the same time last year.

Some of China's largest state-owned enterprises are the leading contenders to refinance debt with oil giant Sinopec Group, which has a 5-year bond worth $2.48 billion maturing in April while power utility State Grid has a three-year $898.5 million bond expiring at the same time, according to Refinitiv.

The data shows a Soft Bank Group bond worth $2.48 billion due to mature on April 18, and the conglomerate flagged it planned to carry out $41 billion worth of asset sales to buy back shares and pay down debt.


Of course the other option is to default on Debt. According to the WSJ, Lebanon is about to do just that

QUOTE
Lebanon said it would default on its dollar-denominated debt, intensifying the Middle Eastern state’s financial turmoil and setting up a possibly messy negotiation with foreign investors.

Beirut’s failure to honor its massive debt load was long expected and not related to the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But it comes at a time when the global financial system is on edge.


Argentina may well follow suit fromBuenos Aries

QUOTE
Argentina is already admitting that it cannot meet its original March 31 deadline for debt restructuring, the Bloomberg news agency reported Friday, saying the government intends to roll it over until May 7, when a major payment of US$ 1.4 billion falls due.recent series of conversations between bondholders and government officials have converged towards that date as the moment of truth for avoiding default, according to sources privy to those meetings.

Restructuring talks could stretch to the end of May or even several months in a context of global crisis and coronavirus, according to other sources.

Furthermore, there are fears that continually plunging bond values will eventually place them in the hands of the holdouts – more commonly known in Argentina as the los fondos buitre, or “vulture funds.”

A payment of US$ 1.9 billion to the Paris Club will also be falling due in May but the government is confident that an extension can be negotiated, Bloomberg reported.


And from the Institute of International Finance
The following is a quote, but the SS limits the numbers of block of quoted texts.

Global debt across all sectors rose by over $10 trillion in 2019, topping $255 trillion. At over 322% of GDP, global debt is now 40 percentage points ($87 trillion) higher than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis—a sobering realization as governments worldwide gear up to fight the pandemic.

FX debt in EMs now exceeds $5.3 trillion. Excluding China, FX debt makes up 20% of EM debt outside the financial sector.

Over $20 trillion of global bonds and loans come due through end-2020; $4.3 trillion of that in EMs. Emerging markets will need to refinance $730 billion in FX debt through end-2020.
COVID-19 SPOTLIGHT:
With the COVID-19 fiscal response in full swing, the global debt burden is set to rise dramatically in 2020; gross government debt issuance soared to a record high of over $2.1 trillion last month, more than double the 2017-19 average of $0.9 trillion.

As social distancing becomes the norm across most mature economies, global recession looms: a recession which would begin with $87 trillion more in global debt than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis.

Using a simple top-down estimation, if net government borrowing doubles from 2019 levels—and there is a 3% contraction in global economic activity (nominal terms)—the world’s debt pile would surge from 322% of GDP to over 342% this year.


Just another reason to be wary.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 08:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From The Scotsman

QUOTE
It is the country that has turned cursing into something of an art form. Now a new TV documentary is set to reveal Scotland’s new claim to fame as the birthplace of the F-word.Experts say the origins of the profanity can be traced all the way back to the 16th century equivalent of a rap battle.

An account of a “flyting” duel between two poets, held in the collection of the National Library of Scotland, is said to be its first recorded use anywhere in the world.

The hour-long BBC Scotland programme, which airs on Tuesday, sees actress, singer and theatre-maker Cora Bissett trace the nation’s long love affair with swearing and insults, despite the long-standing efforts of religious leaders to condemn it as a sin.In Scotland – Contains Strong Language, they explore the Bannatyne Manuscript, one of the most important collections of medieval Scottish literature, which was compiled by the Edinburgh merchant George Bannatyne in 1568 when a plague struck the city and he was forced to stay at home.

The collection contains The Flyting Of Dunbar And Kennedy, an account by the poet William Dunbar of a duel with Walter Kennedy, said to have been conducted in Edinburgh before the court of King James IV of Scotland in around 1500.

In the documentary, which will go out on the BBC Scotland channel at 10pm, Dr Kopaczyk describes how Bannatyne’s collection describes “some very juicy language” and points out that one of insults traded between the two poets was the phrase “wan fukkit funling.”


The first bit of grafiti f-bomb was ironically penned during a plague lockdown.
How appropriate.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 08:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Yes, it may have been a technicality, but a pretty important one, namely that in any trial, the prosecutors have to prove beyond reasonable doubt that the defendant is guilty as charged.
I always think back to the trial of Lindy Chamberlain.
the number of people that I thought I knew well who condemned here before the trial had even begun absolutely astounded me (even my own mother!!)..
The Jury in that case found her guilty on the evidence as presented, it's just that a lot of the prosecutors evidence was questionable to say the least.
Having had the unfortunate privilege of having to sit through a trial with 11 of my peers reinforced the fact that many people are driven by prejudice, ignorance, and lack logical thinking ability.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Yeah, maybe we should dispense with all this legal stuff and just let the ABC decide who is guilty and who is innocent.
Think of the money we would save!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 01:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

QUOTE
I would not piss on him if he was on fire,


Ha, great line.
I have little time for purveyors of deity worship, but reckon the guy was hung out to dry for what he was rather than what he (may or may not have) done.
Need real evidence next time.
Says a lot for the Vic justice system, the cops, the prosecutors and the judges.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

AAGGGHHHHHHHHHHH,
Crucifiction for me and not even Easter!
A cap raising at 30cents. Last price was 1.40!
Gobbled up, chewed to bits then spat out.
At the end of September , this co had 54 mill in cash and bullion.
It now wants to raise 98 miill to pay off the debt.
What the hell happened between then and now, given it has been producing gold at teh level of its projected levels?
Unbelievably poor management.
Bet none of the dorks take a pay cut.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I am quite surprised, no amazed , that until just now, no member of this forum has made a comment on the Pell Case.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 10:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From Jouhn Durie the Oz
QUOTE
Anyone for a wall cross? It’s the $5bn game being played out in financial markets as investment banks and fund managers square off on new equity raisings.

Crossing the wall is the term used for the official sounding process ahead of an equity raising — that is, the sounding which comes after the informal heads-up.

In this era of social distancing the latter is tricky because a quick coffee down the road is not on. But luckily the people on both sides of the fence know each other well.

All going well, the compliance department suitably muted, an investment banker calls the PM (portfolio manager) and asks whether they want to cross the wall on, say, a transport issue coming up. Once the paperwork is signed the banker can brief the PM and the game is on.

Back during the global financial crisis, the game resulted in Australian companies raising $98bn to recapitalise their balance sheets and investment banks pocketed $2bn in fees to compensate for the “risk” they took.

The game then was to line up some friendly PMs, start a few rumours about company X which “really needs to raise money”, watch the stock price fall further, then approach the company about a discounted rights issue, which is already effectively placed.Then the stock price magically rises and everyone wins — except retail shareholders, who are massively diluted, and management has to justify lower returns for the next few years.

The GFC bonanza was led by UBS but so far the wall crossing dance is demonstrably being led by Macquarie.

This is a tricky time for boards of directors who are there to support all shareholders and need to stand up to self-interested bankers and fund managers.

Thanks to Canberra’s help they have already covered their backside with relief from “trading while insolvent” rules and now the test comes on whether they can stare down the investment banks wanting to help them raise sometimes expensive equity capital.

Proxy firm Ownership Matters has already stepped in to put corporate Australia on notice that capital market behaviour will be watched closed in the next governance reviews.

ASX and Cochlear chair Rick Holliday Smith will be exhibit one, explaining how he handed 34 per cent of an $880m raising to UK- based Veritas, after capping retail share at $50m on a $140 a share issue after which the stock is now trading at $183.80.

Somewhat bizarrely, Cochlear left it to yesterday to confide management and the board would take a pay cut, which perpetuated the line the company was in trouble.

The ASX has stepped in to make it easier to raise money by lifting the limits on how much equity can be raised without seeking shareholder approval. But its package was tilted to the big end of town.

The fear was money may not be easily found so there was a need in volatile equity markets to raise money quickly — that’s why shareholder friendly measures like renounceable rights issues, which allow you to sell rights, were summarily ignored.

So far raising money has not proved an issue. On present form the “wall crossed” PM will readily agree to the new shares because rights issues are money for jam at a big discount to market and at this early stage the market tends to trade up on completion.

A formal letter is sent by email, the PM agrees to the terms and then the banker briefs on the deal and asks the PM whether he or she wants to participate, and the answer is generally yes.

Normally existing shareholders are approached because at least they know the stock. And the bank also wants to keep them on- side, so it doesn’t want to dilute the PM.

Retail shareholders are a different matter because they are left on the sidelines and if they are lucky they get to pick up a few crumbs and must accept a massive dilution.

If more shares are being issued at a lower price then your earnings per share will be diluted because you get fewer earnings per share.

All this means by the time the issue is announced by the company, a day or two later the deal is effectively done and the banker picks up a 2 per cent fee for zero risk by putting his PM mates into the issue.

The fund manager wants to guard against dilution and when the PM is known as a good commission payer then it’s more often than not that the allocation is generous.

All of this happens behind closed doors and no one really sees what is happening, although the ACCC is trying to open up a Pandora’s box with an alleged cartel case against the bankers in the failed ANZ issue in 2015.

The company is happy if the book is filled because then it can get on with business.

The expectation this time around is that there will be a rush of companies with their hands out early because they really need the money — like Flight Centre, Oil Search et al.

And the next round will come when, hopefully, business gets back to normal and the banks start suggesting the companies get their balance sheet in order.

The trading banks, it should be noted, have played the crisis to perfection, suspending payment terms on small business loans and mortgages, but in reality they are just suspending terms, with the length of the loan extended by three to six months.


To paraphrase a ditty from years ago,
"all, bankers are Bastards, bastard or worse
banks are the arsehole of the universe"

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 10:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Thats the speed of light in a Vacuum doesn't change.
The bending of light in gravitational lenses shows C can vary depending on the medium.
Light travels slower in water than glass or air.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

And today looks pretty good as well.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Yeah, I thought about NUF, but part of the issue is the potential for banning or severely limiting the use of glyphosate because of real or perceived health related side effects.
When the last lot of publicity about links to glyphosate and hodgkins disease, there was a surge in buying by farmers (and people like me who use it as the primary gardening tool).
With a forward P/E of 191, and not having fallen quite so much from recent highs, I wasn't convinced that the upside potential gains were worth the risk.
Still, it has the advantage of still having sales before the crop is finished its more dependant upon the expectaion of good yields, whereas GNC is reliant on the crop yield being up.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Still no word on the recapitalisation.
It cant be good news, despite the Third quarter output report stating that production was in line with forecasts,
The statement out today says that they "anticipate providing an update on the outcome of this process early in this currrent quarter".
Doesn't say it will be finalised, just an update,
Not looking forward to what happens to the price if and when they relist.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 11:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I bought into GNC this morning.
Talking to some fiends in Western Vic on the weekend, they all are all extremely positive about the coming season.
A couple of guys in the area planted after the rain three weeks ago and already have a good strike that is a few inches high,
The rain over the past few days will give it an even bigger kick.
Their only problem is a few paddocks of heavier type soil is too wet to get the seeders on.
Western NSW and Southern WA are in a similar boat.
Broad acre farming is one area that will be minimally affected by the Virus and shutdowns in the short term.
Its capital intensive rather than labour intensive.
As Col said, there is no better way to self isolate than sitting in the cab of his tractor for hours on end.
People will still need to be fed.
The total crop doesn't have to be anything above ordinary to make it massive compared to the last two or three seasons.

Similarly I have invested in IPL.
Fertiliser use will go up significantly as the farmers work to maximise yield and make up for the past few years.
IPL will benefit from this plus the fall in price of its feedstock.
It will still have a downside because of the closure of some its factories in Turkey, Malasia , China and other countries, but still worth a punt INMHO.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

QUOTE
i think i catched aussie freedom ourdoor spirits virus.


And there is no cure EB!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 08:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I posted it in the hope you would comment on it and give me a bit of an idea what it said.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 5 2020, 09:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Now heres an interesting new take on quantum mechanics and relativity.
From Eureka Alert

quote]Since its beginnings, quantum mechanics hasn’t ceased to amaze us with its peculiarity, so difficult to understand. Why does one particle seem to pass through two slits simultaneously? Why instead of specific predictions can we only talk about evolution of probabilities? According to theorists from universities in Warsaw and Oxford, the most important features of the quantum world may result from the special theory of relativity, which until now seemed to have little to do with quantum mechanics.

Since the arrival of quantum mechanics and the theory of relativity, physicists have lost sleep over the incompatibility of these three concepts (three, since there are two theories of relativity: special and general). It has commonly been accepted that it is the description of quantum mechanics that is the more fundamental and that the theory of relativity that will have to be adjusted to it. Dr. Andrzej Dragan from the Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw (FUW) and Prof. Artur Ekert from the University of Oxford (UO) have just presented their reasoning leading to a different conclusion. In the article “The Quantum Principle of Relativity”, published in the New Journal of Physics, they prove that the features of quantum mechanics determining its uniqueness and its such non-intuitive exoticism – accepted, what’s more, on faith (as axioms) – can be explained within the framework of the special theory of relativity. One only has to decide on a certain rather unorthodox step.

Albert Einstein based the special theory of relativity on two postulates. The first is known as the Galilean principle of relativity (which, please note, is a special case of the Copernican principle). This states that physics is the same in every inertial system (i.e., one that is either at rest or in a steady straight line motion). The second postulate, formulated on the result of the famous Michelson-Morley experiment, imposed the requirement of a constant velocity of light in every reference system.

“Einstein considered the second postulate to be crucial. In reality, what is crucial is the principle of relativity. Already in 1910 Vladimir Ignatowski showed that based only on this principle it is possible to reconstruct all relativistic phenomena of the special theory of relativity. A strikingly simple reasoning, leading directly from the principle of relativity to relativism, was also presented in 1992 by Professor Andrzej Szymacha from our faculty,” says Dr. Dragan.

The special theory of relativity is a coherent structure that allows for three mathematically correct types of solutions: a world of particles moving at subluminal velocities, a world of particles moving at the velocity of light and a world of particles moving at superluminal velocities. This third option has always been rejected as having nothing to do with reality.

„We posed the question: what happens if – for the time being without entering into the physicality or non-physicality of the solutions – we take seriously not part of the special theory of relativity, but all of it, together with the superluminal system? We expected cause-effect paradoxes. Meanwhile, we saw exactly those effects that form the deepest core of quantum mechanics,” say Dr. Dragan and Prof. Ekert.

Initially, both theorists considered a simplified case: space-time with all three families of solutions, but consisting of only one spatial and one time dimension (1+1). A particle at rest in one system of solutions seems to move superluminally in the other, which means that superluminosity itself is relative.

In a space-time continuum constructed this way, non-deterministic events occur naturally. If in one system at point A there is generation of a superluminal particle, even completely predictable, emitted towards point B, where there is simply no information about the reasons for the emission, then from the point of view of the observer in the second system events run from point B to point A, so they start from a completely unpredictable event. It turns out that analogous effects appear also in the case of subluminal particle emissions.

Both theorists have also shown that after taking into account superluminal solutions, the motion of a particle on multiple trajectories simultaneously appears naturally, and a description of the course of events requires the introduction of a sum of combined amplitudes of probability that indicate the existence of superposition of states, a phenomenon thus far associated only with quantum mechanics.

In the case of space-time with three spatial dimensions and one time dimension (3+1), that is, corresponding to our physical reality, the situation is more complicated. The principle of relativity in its original form is not preserved – the subluminal and superluminal systems are distinguishable. However, the researchers noticed that when the principle of relativity is modified to the form: “The ability to describe an event in a local and deterministic way should not depend on the choice of an inertial reference system”, it limits the solutions to those in which all the conclusions from the consideration in (1+1) space-time remain valid.

“We noticed, incidentally, the possibility of an interesting interpretation of the role of individual dimensions. In the system that looks superluminal to the observer some space-time dimensions seem to change their physical roles. Only one dimension of superluminal light has a spatial character – the one along which the particle moves. The other three dimensions appear to be time dimensions,” says Dr. Dragan.

A characteristic feature of spatial dimensions is that a particle can move in any direction or remain at rest, while in a time dimension it always propagates in one direction (what we call aging in everyday language). So, three time dimensions of the superluminal system with one spatial dimension (1+3) would thus mean that particles inevitably age in three times simultaneously. The ageing process of a particle in a superluminal system (1+3), observed from a subluminal system (3+1), would look as if the particle was moving like a spherical wave, leading to the famous Huygens principle (every point on a wavefront can be treated itself as a source of a new spherical wave) and corpuscular-wave dualism.

“All the strangeness that appears when considering solutions relating to a system that looks superluminal turns out to be no stranger than what commonly accepted and experimentally verified quantum theory has long been saying. On the contrary, taking into account a superluminal system, it is possible – at least theoretically – to derive some of the postulates of quantum mechanics from the special theory of relativity, which were usually accepted as not resulting from other, more fundamental reasons,” Dr. Dragan concludes.

For almost a hundred years quantum mechanics has been awaiting a deeper theory to explain the nature of its mysterious phenomena. If the reasoning presented by the physicists from FUW and UO stands the test of time, history would cruelly mock all physicists. The “unknown” theory sought for decades, explaining the uniqueness of quantum mechanics, would be something already known from the very first work on quantum theory.[/quote]

Nothing I like better than to see the smug world of consensus turned on its head.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 5 2020, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Noticed that a lot of the stocks I have been trading/watching have moved into a surplus of bids on the buy side from where it was in the panic period.
Have we consolidated above the bottom?
Time will tell.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 5 2020, 12:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Gold back above AUD$2700.
Gotta be positive for gold stocks come Monday mornings open.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 4 2020, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

This guy claims to have been living in China for ten years, and speaks fluent chinese.
If you skip the crap that hangs it on the CCP, the actual "facts" he puts out about stuff he found on the internet.
Read into it what you will.
Found the source of COVID19

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 4 2020, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

If he hasn't succumbed to the virus, he must be well into his mid to late 80's by now.
Maybe he got sick of us picking on him.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 3 2020, 10:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Those that do not learn from History, are doomed to repeat its mistakes.
From Zero hedge


QUOTE
Between 1962 and 1968, a cartel of central banks from the US and Europe ran a price manipulation scheme in London, aiming to keep the price of gold at $35 per ounce. They did this by constant intervention into the market, pooling their gold reserves to sell down the market. Conceived and coordinated at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland by the G10 central bank governors, the dirty work of actual gold market intervention was done by the Pool's agent, the Bank of England gold trading desk in London.

The syndicate, known as the London Gold Pool was successful until it wasn’t, with the beginning of the end in early March 1968 as the huge run on gold became a tidal wave with sterling and US dollar weakness. On 10 March 1968, a Sunday, the consortium released a statement claiming that: “the London Gold Pool reaffirm their determination to support the pool at a fixed price of $35 per ounce”. At the same time, Fed chairman William McChesney Martin even vowed that the US would defend the Pool “to the last ingot”.

The Pool then proceeded to airlift hundreds of tonnes of gold bars from the US Treasury’s Fort Knox to RAF Mildenhall, which they dumped into the London market for the rest of the week (March 11 -14). With all the Good Delivery Gold siphoned off to the Market (actually a consortium of European merchant banks), the Rothschild and the Bank of England pulled the plug, and the London Gold Pool collapsed on the evening of 14 March 1968, ushering in an era of free market gold prices.
Moral of the story, don’t believe the pronouncements of the powers that be in the London and US gold markets, especially during a crisis.

Fast forward to today, and the parallels of the Pool with the modern bullion bank cartel, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and CME’s Commodity Exchange (COMEX) are uncanny. In the space of a week, the LBMA – COMEX nexus, which together control price discovery in the global gold market through their combination of fractionally backed synthetic unallocated gold, and cash settled gold futures, has issued two statements to try to placate the gold market, each one more panic stricken.

Last week, as the contango between COMEX futures and London spot gold blew up to a nearly $100 differential, and London market maker bid-ask spot spreads blew out to $100, the LBMA in a rush to deflect attention, issued a statement claiming that:

“The London gold market continues to be open for business. There has, however, been some impact on liquidity arising from price volatility in Comex 100oz futures contracts. LBMA has offered its support to CME Group to facilitate physical delivery in New York and is working closely with COMEX and other key stakeholders to ensure the efficient running of the global gold market."

As we asked at the time last week:

Why is the LBMA colluding with the COMEX?

How can the London gold market be open for business if LBMA market makers are not providing liquidity in spot gold

Why is the LBMA deflecting attention from the London market and pinning the focus on the COMEX?

Why does the LBMA want to facilitate physical delivery in New York when its remit is the London Gold Market (loco London)?

Who are the other key stakeholders that the LBMA and COMEX are colluding with?hen yesterday, April 1, for a second the LBMA and CME issued an unprecedented second statement, more desperate than the first, with the pair seemingly running scared:

“LBMA AND CME GROUP COMMENT ON HELTHY GOLD STOCKS IN NEW YORK AND LONDON

CME Group and LBMA..will continue to coordinate efforts as market circumstances evolve. Together, both CME Group and LBMA are actively taking measures to ensure the continued efficient operation of global gold markets during this unprecedented time.

LBMA reports record gold stocks

Gold stocks in London remain healthy with the latest published numbers showing record stocks of 8,326 tonnes of gold, which is equivalent to 666,045 standard 400-ounce gold bars. Visit the LBMA website for more information.

CME Group depositories open and gold stocks near record high

CME Group’s New York depositories are operating normally as they have been deemed essential businesses and deliveries are occurring as planned. As of March 30, 2020, our depositories currently hold 9.2 million ounces of gold (with 5.6 million ounces eligible), nearing a record high in terms of stock levels..."
London Gold Pool - Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel
Never before has the gold market seen such panic from the paper gold conductors, and all this in the presence of record physical gold demand, cleared out gold bars and coin inventories across the entire gold supply chain, closed down precious metals mints and refineries, and a price disconnect between the physical and paper gold markets.

The fact that the LBMA - COMEX tag team which front for the modern bullion bank cartel have to comment not once, but twice in a week about the health of gold inventories in London and New York means they are panicking. It's unprecedented.

And this comes after the bullion banks placed disinformation into the media last week about needing to physical deliver gold bars from London to New York (hint - In modern times the US never imports physical gold from the UK), and were panicked into moving the goalposts with the launch of a new CME COMEX futures contract that brazenly tries to prop up COMEX GC 100 trading with the figment of fractional delivery of 400 oz gold bars that sit in London. Not to mention that on Monday this week, after CME published a COMEX vault report that had 400 oz bar categories listed for all the vaults, but with absolutely no 400 oz gold bars listed, and we mentioned it here on ZeroHedge, the CME then panicked and pulled the 400 oz version of the report, reverting back within an hour to the original version

The entire LBMA - CME Group statement about healthy gold stocks is, in the words of Francis Bacon - “of Simulation and Dissimulation” - simulation being a pretense of what is not, and dissimulation being a concealment of what is.

The LBMA reference to 8326 tonnes of gold in its network of London vaults is completed misleading.

This figure is from 31 December 2019, which is 3 months ago

Of this 8326 tonnes figure, 5373 tonnes (65%) represents gold held by central banks at the bank of England, and another 1895 tonnnes representes gold backing Exchange Traded Funds held in London LBMA vaults, such as the vaults of HSBC and JP Morgan. Subtracting these leaves 1057 tonnes (13% of total). Thais 1057 is just the maximum possible London float and does not itself exclude allocated gold held by entities such as sovereign wealth funds, investment institutions, ultra wealthy and family offices. I am hearing from the London gold market sources that the real LBMA bullion bank float is less than 500 tonnes and maybe be as low as 200 - 300 tonnes.
Looking at the COMEX data and vaults, as always, COMEX has very low gold holdings. The 9.2 mn ozs number which CME refers to in the above statement (actually 9.245 mn ozs) is only 287 tonnes of gold. Of that figure (which refers to Tuesday 31 March), 114 tonnes was in the Registered, meaning there already are vault warrants issued against that.
The other 5.6 mn ozs (actually 5.85 mn ozs) is ‘Eligible gold’, but eligible just means any gold that happens to be in the approved COMEX vaults that is in the form of kilo bars or 100 oz bars. It could be anything. It is already owned by entities, which would include mints, refiners, and jewellery companies, and eligible gold may have nothing to do with COMEX or CME.

There are now over 2.19 mn ounces of Comex contracts standing for delivery in April (stops issued) - that's 68 tonnes..and increasing.
From this latest April Fool’s Day statement, we can conclude that the LBMA is terrified that unallocated investors who have claims on LBMA bullion banks, will line up to take allocation of gold in London, while the CME is terrified that COMEX futures contract holders will increasingly try to take physical delivery of gold in New York (not just delivery of warrants but actually withdrawing the gold bars out of the COMEX vaults.

In March 1968 during the last days of the London Gold Pool, the cartel of central banks kept playing while the ship began to sink, brazenly saying that “the London Gold Pool reaffirm their determination to support the pool."

This time around, with their “healthy stocks of gold in London and New York” (you can be the judge of that), “the LBMA has offered its support to CME Group”. It therefore seems that while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes.


At some stage, this has all got to blow up.
=It can't last forever this constant rigging of the market.
At some stage, the enemies of the west will stage a coordinated push to smash the paper warriors.
physical will eventually whem I just don't know when.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 3 2020, 03:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The problem with mortality is determining whether someone dies FROM Covid , or whether they died WITH Covid.
The majority of men over 75 will have Prostate Cancer, but for most it doesn't kill them.
Something else like heart failure, diabetes, lung failure, stroke, Alzheimers disease, or falling off a ladder..
I wonder how many of the elderly people with the Virus who dies actually died from something else?
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 3 2020, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

The number of cases of COVID has hit 1 million. (ABC NEWS )
Not sure when day zero was when the first case was counted, , but its been a few months.
It took a few months to get half a million cases, but just 8 days to double to 1 million.
Let's hope we are near or at the top of that bell curve.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 3 2020, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Couldn't agree more EB.
The media have been all but useless in this pandemic. Concentrating on points scoring, trying to show how they are the best at informing the public, trying to pretend how vital they are.
Forget about international relations, let the well paid international diplomats do their posturing over that whgile the rest of us get on with it.
We used to make stuff, my first employment positions were all with companies that made stuff. 'None of them make stuff now, they import and rebrand.
We need to get rid of so many of the ridiculous bindings of red tape.
Base chemicals should be the first.
The fact that we could not immediately ramp up production of test kits cos we no longer produce base reagents is laughable.
Why are we s ending Iron Ore to China to turn into pig iron or steel.
\Why do we export our sands, our REMS, etc to China to be reprocessed.
Forget about sovereign risk, that is all bullshit now. We have seen just how quickly sovereign risk was dismantled when the crunch came and its every (insert preferred gender here) for (insert preferred prounoun here)self.
In Europe the dod eat dod has caused hijacking of medical supplies
From The OZ


QUOTE
Factory shutdowns in Asia and a “wild west” mentality in the European Union that has seen countries hijack medical equipment could threaten the supply of crucial protective items like medical gloves, goggles and gowns, global manufacturer Ansell says.

Lockdowns at factories in Malaysia and Thailand, which produce the bulk of the world’s surgical gloves, was denting the ability of its suppliers and sub-suppliers to keep pumping out key components for medical personal protective equipment (PPE), Ansell chief executive Magnus Nicolin told The Australian from his office in Belgium.

Meanwhile, disruptive and unseemly fights over access to shipments of gloves and other protective equipment had broken out in Europe, he said.

In one recent example, a shipment of gloves from Belgium to Italy was halted at the border and rerouted to an Italian hospital different to the one that had ordered the products. In another example, a shipment of masks from China to Italy was stopped and seized at the Czech border for use elsewhere, Mr Nicolin said.
n this challenging global crisis, Ansell has expanded production capacity of protective products critical to healthcare workers and other essential industries, and with the necessary support of local authorities we are striving to operate these facilities at their maximum potential,’’ Mr Nicolin said.

“However, we have serious concerns that suppliers of raw materials and components are impacted, threatening continued output of our protective products crucial to managing the pandemic and keeping workers safe. We are also concerned that certain countries (even within the EU) have imposed controls on exports or shipments across borders.”

He said there were constraints now impacting distribution, especially in the Europe.

“Even in Europe, in the European common market we are seeing individual countries lock borders. We have seen Germany do some of that, Czech Republic lay claim to a shipment of masks from China to Italy and they essentially took it into their own hospital system.

“So there is a little bit of the wild west going on at the borders and that of course is not helping getting product where it is needed most.”
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Yo Triage, where did you hear the scuttlebut?
I have been searching the internet for references, and couldn't even find it on "the guardian" webdite??
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Watching the NSW Police Commissar announcing that the strict regs on social distancing brought to mind the floowing song, so aptly performed by Sting and the Police.

The Police

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 04:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

An interesting rant, but i have one particular issue with the argument put forward.
Like so many others, he cites South Korea and Taiwan as being model responders that we could all learn from.
They put the case that testing temperatures of people going in and out and forcing the hi temp folks to test and go into quarantine allows most normal activities like schools, restaurants, retail shops etc to remain open.
The only problem is that there is a percentage of cases which are asymptomatic - they patient has the virus, is infectious , but shows no symptoms- including high temperature.
The value of this percentage I have seen as low as 18% and as high as 59%. ( see Nature )
So at any one time, there is a number of patients walking around undetected unless they test for antibodies in the system.
So it would seem questionable as to whether the check the temperature will pick up all patients with the disease.
Certainly, those with an elevated temperature can be tested, but unless they test a very high percentage of the non hi temp people, threr will be varying numbers of carriers undetected.
Either these countries were very lucky or there is some other as yet undiscovered factor.
One of the other factors cited is the level of already impaired lungs.
You can have impaired lungs because of air pollution, asthma, and smoking.
South Korea , Taiwan both have 23% of people smoking.
Italy, one of the worst hit areas also has 23% smoking rate.
Iran, another hard hit country has 12.5% smokers, and the US, with the biggest numbers of cases has a smoking rate of 14%.
Yes, you must be careful of generalisations over a large and diverse population, but once again, the figures don't seem to add up.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 11:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

sBM have joined the list of gold miners who say that the CV lockdowns etc have not materially impacted operatioms/production.
Of course that may change, particularly in PNG , as flights in and out are suspended.
Waiting.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

It seems that just about everyone hates Trump.
The media - CNN are refusing to show his live press conferences as it "gives him legitimacy".
Congress wants to impeach him.
Every entertainment celebrity, media mogul, film director, etc etc hates him (Geez, Bette Middler wants to blow him Up).
And yet, despite all this hate, the only people that really matter, the great unwashed of the American Public have given him the the highest approval rating of his Presidency.
Thats why you have to be careful with Democracy, sometimes the voters just don't listen to the experts.
Trump Highest rating


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Moby, one of my fav exports from Canada, has a really appropriate Video clip for these times.
And the song is not half bad either.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

RMS released its 3rd quarter results this morning (pretty efficient seeing as the quarter only finished technically last night!).

Everything inline with guidance, no impact so far, and can't see why the full year results will not be in line with guidance.
I thought it was a reasonably good outcome, but the stock got marked down with the other gold stocks.
Its only April, but the sell in May and go away looks like a good strategy. Just a month early.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 09:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Thanks Nipper, but I reckon the forward PE's will be the tell tale.
With a tad more than half the year put away before this crisis, the first half activity is still there in the P/e calcs.
But with next fin year, its likely to start much lower, with absolutely no indication as to how long the slowdown will last nor how deep it will be.
Companies will unsurprisingly have very low expectations.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

According toOZ Newspaper

Q
QUOTE
ueensland will be closed to non-critical mine workers from other states from this weekend as restrictions continue to tighten in the battle to curb the spread of COVID-19.

Mines Minister Anthony Lynham said only interstate fly-in-fly-out mine workers who were critical to a mine’s operations will be allowed into Queensland from midnight Saturday to protect remote and regional communities and local mine workforces.

“As all resources ministers around the country have said, the resources sector is essential to maintaining a strong Australian economy,” he said.

“It is critical that we move now to prevent people who may have been exposed to the virus bringing it to Queensland.

“Queensland has no known cases in our remote regional communities, and restricting these workers from entering the State will remove a possible transmission route.

“Exempting critical people will ensure that resources projects can continue to produce the mineral and energy resources we need,” Dr Lynham said.

“Most importantly, these critical people will ensure projects operate safely for the workers on site.”

The ban will exempt people who have statutory positions specified in legislation, including workers responsible for health and safety.

The changes do not affect FIFO or DIDO workers travelling from within Queensland.



Difficult to work out what impact it will have on QLD miners, depends on how many come from interstate.
But expect dome falls for QLD mines shares on the open tomorrow.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Russia has suspended gold purchases by their CB.

Kitco News) -

QUOTE
The gold market continues to deal with liquidity issues as mines and refiners close down because of the economic impact the spreading coronavirus is having across the globe; however, the market can now also expect to see lower demand as a major central bank said that it is not buying any gold as volatility remains high.

Monday, the Russian central bank announced that starting April 1 it will be suspending its domestic gold purchases.

"Further decisions on gold purchases will depend on how the situation develops," the bank said.
Not only is high volatility creating a challenging gold market, but Russia ’s economy is suffering as it engages in an oil price war with Saudi Arabia. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell to a fresh 17-year low Monday as prices dropped below $20 a barrel.

The announcement also comes as the coronavirus pandemic created chaos in the global gold market by grounding thousands of flights that deliver the metal to banks and dealers around the world. The breakdown in the global supply chain has caused shortages in key markets. Analysts have said that while there ’s plenty of the precious available, it ’s not always in the right place.

The Russian central bank has dominated the gold market, consistently increasing its gold reserves every month for the last three years.

According to data from the World Gold Council, the Russian central bank bought 158.1 tons last year. The WGC data shows that the central bank bought 8.1 tons of gold in January.

Although Russia will not be adding to its gold reserves in the near future, some analysts are not expecting the central bank to start selling its gold anytime soon.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research at the WGC said that although gold purchases might fall compared to previous years ’ spending sprees, gold remains an attractive diversifier for central banks.

He added that in a world of low interest rates, central banks could start to rely on their gold holdings to support their currencies.

Gold price are currently struggling to find consistent buying momentum. June gold futures last traded at $1,636 an ounce, down more than 1% on the day.

Started reducing my gold shares.
Been a great run, but time tio go back to mostly cash till the next indicator pops up.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

I think the covid 19 virus self isolating is starting to affect my mental health.
This morning I cleaned the oven.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 08:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

From one of my Fav satirical websites, Babylon Bee come some great headlines- don't even need o read the articles.

Headline " Government Accidentally Shuts Itself Down With Ban On Non-Essential Businesses "

QUOTE
WASHINGTON, D.C.—Congress has asked all non-essential businesses to limit their hours or close entirely for an undetermined amount of time.


But this shutdown mistakenly shut down the most non-essential entity of all: the government. For a brief period of time, all government in the United States was illegal, since it is completely non-essential to everything.

"Oops," said Senator Mitch McConnell. "We meant non-essential private businesses. Of course, the government is always essential, even when it's not doing anything or is making things worse."

Senators, congresspeople, and bureaucrats frantically rewrote the ban to include only businesses that actually produced something and not government agencies that just watched other people make stuff. Though they had dragged their feet on passing bills related to relieving the financial distress of the shutdown, they passed this revision in record speed, almost as quickly as they vote for pay raises for themselves.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said she would have caught the mistake but had passed the ban in a hurry, saying, "We had to pass the ban to see what it did."


and "Toilet Paper Crisis Solved As Government Prints Trillions Of Fresh, Soft Dollar Bills "
QUOTE
The administration explained that, while it’s possible the money might help get things flowing again for people who are in need of a strong push financially, the more practical use will be for those who have run out of toilet paper: “As the economic stoppage causes the dollar’s value to take a dump, we see this as a great alternative to increasingly scarce toilet paper.”

The statement also included several best practices for making the most use out of each crisp, worthless dollar bill, and even some tips on precise folding techniques in order to avoid defacing the United States’ first president.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 05:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,437

Not really Currency related, but it is Block Chain related.
If you are struggling for some reading material, have I got a deal for you.
The Fed guvmint have released their BTC roadmap.
It can be found at BCT Roadmap
Don't cheat and just read the highlights, read the whole tome.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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