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mistagear
Posted on: May 16 2018, 02:51 PM


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Back to express my sadness on the passing of an old friend.
RIP Udo.
Sincere regards to Dagmar and family
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 04:45 PM


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I'm pure swing trader, my horizon does not extend beyond 10/14 days, from pivot point to pivot point.
Recent highs or lows, even historical ones have little interest other than to note some people will be looking at those levels and yet I know majority of potential participants in the market do not use charts
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 08:21 AM


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Trader,
My method comes from the opposite direction, where the plus/minus number varies with mkt volatility and creates the target from previous pivot. My current volatility number Happens to be 100
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 2 2017, 12:59 PM


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XTrader, Does the +50 number remain constant ? or do you re-calc as market volatility changes ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 24 2017, 05:03 PM


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I qualify as SLOTH, not SOPH
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 23 2017, 04:58 PM


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Have no interest in this stock, simply bored and looked at the chart.
Here's why I think NAN is destined to go much lower eventually.
From 2015 the weekly chart shows how increased volume drove the price higher (more demand than supply) (see green arrows)
Since Nov 2016, each volume spike has resulted in no increase in price. ( supply exceeding what appeared to be good demand) (see red arrows)

In the normal life cycle of shares, there should be a spike back up which fails to reach prior high levels, followed by more serious decline then decline and more decline. $1 or even sub $1 is easily possible.

Of course, I'm often wrong, this is simply one bored persons opinion. Analysts however are always right
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  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jan 30 2017, 07:17 PM


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take-over both , not going to happen that way unless Solly bros are ready to retire.
Sell ede, keep tas all cashed up, would seem to satisfy the way they operate. So they can then go play with something new that requires lots of legal fees paid

As far as buy tas as a way to acquire ede. I think tas only owns about 40%, to buy 100% tas to get 40% ede makes little sense imho.
I think better to be on the ede cart and not tas, but everyone has their own opinion which makes the market what it is
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jan 28 2017, 11:37 PM


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100% of value would be released to shareholders in the event EDE is taken-over, whereas 0% will be released to shareholders of TAS at that point.
Funds would go into the accounts of TAS and become the next plaything for Solomons to do whatever they see fit in directing TAS cash into various projects.
Thats the reason the market is discounting the valuation. imho
Market has consistently shown for 12 months that backing TAS is the wrong pony and it will likely continue for duration of this show
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Oct 19 2016, 09:14 AM


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tracked this thing for months, patiently waiting for a 9. something entry. Missed by a poofteenth.
Some of the faithful have regained lost value in their accounts today.. finally
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 8 2016, 02:49 PM


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c'mon, somebody sell some. Am ready for another go at this one
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 8 2016, 02:15 PM


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5110-5085 happens to be my current swing target. ...who knows, might be a good Lotto guess
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jun 29 2016, 03:04 PM


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Eden had a nice swing as I hoped, was a buyer 17.5 and 17 but was a seller today 26.5
Now on the lookout for some pullback ..perhaps 22.5 if I dare hope for a swing that far.
Am cautious on this next low and prepared to pay higher than my sells if necessary
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jun 16 2016, 11:47 PM


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Last level did show some reaction but not quite what I was looking for to re-enter. So..
Now waiting for 17.5 and see what happens if it gets there.

On the fundamental side, which I do try very hard to ignore, but sometimes I fall prey to the stupidity... Anyhow

I'd prefer to be reading about SALES exceeding current supply
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jun 16 2016, 10:55 AM


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Looking for another trade, 9.2 level entry my theoretical swing point. Probably need 5 more trading days if its going to reach my level
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jun 8 2016, 10:14 AM


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On May 17th my system created a target price of 27c, then on May 23rd price closed lower which gave a new target of 21c.
Since then price action exposed lack of buyer strength resulting in relatively low numbers of sellers who were prepared to cross the spread and lower the price.
I'm looking how sellers react if we once again test the low around that 21c target.
Am looking for a reason to buy back in based on the number of sellers and their willingness to cross the spread lower, basically ignoring the buy side because it will be the sellers who set the bottom
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 26 2016, 08:35 PM


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Solomons better find a customer in next day or two, otherwise EDE price is very likely to take a 6c-8c swing lower imho.
An announcement around 9.30 in the morning would catch me out, as I've been reducing my position since last week to around 1/3 and looking for re-entry somewhere south of current.
Although the lack of sellers has me on edge that I've sold too many. Hero or Zero, I'm about to find out which
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 25 2016, 12:30 PM


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back in today 9.4
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 18 2016, 03:54 PM


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I got this one wrong, stopped out
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 14 2016, 01:23 PM


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closed my short pos AUD/USD
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: May 13 2016, 07:03 PM


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Good chance of another trade in this one, on watch for a Monday entry.
General market headwinds might hold it back for a bit, but am v interested
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 13 2016, 03:57 PM


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You've done your best to be rude and insulting, I dont care what you say or think.
Enjoy your losses, LMAO
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 12 2016, 02:26 PM


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EDE travelling along nicely again today, continuing to outshine TAS by 7% for the month and about 28% over the last 12 months on a two party preferred basis
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 12 2016, 10:55 AM


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I trade for a living and do many more trades than I mention, not the other way round.
Have my Cvn profits in my account, unlike yourself.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 11 2016, 03:55 PM


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CVN up 39% from Feb when I mentioned to this thread sentiment was changing. Nice profits for those who can trade
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 10 2016, 01:20 PM


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No threat intended, simply wondering just how rude you could be, and you answered unambiguously.
Will leave you to enjoy your bad manners and your lost opportunities, but I have no intention to leave the cvn thread
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 6 2016, 10:17 PM


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I wonder if you would be as blatantly rude if we were in the same room .
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 6 2016, 09:53 PM


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Thing is, when there is a definite offer on the table , that will be the only time Mrs Market has her lightbulb moment and sees relative value between the two entities.
Until then, EDE is the trading vehicle I want to be playing
In a few months from now I'm going to become anxious about holding some TAS but for now, am pretty comfortable being TASless
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 6 2016, 06:15 PM


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Arty,
Bit of a funny approach IMHO.
Why would the owner of an object (in this case EDE) think it should be worth LESS than the market values it ?
Owners are usually thinking their possessions are worth MORE than any given market values them at.

Anyhow, I was trading TAS but it trailed the gains I was seeing for EDE, so I'm opposite to your view
I sold a couple of million EDE into the rise, best I got was 32.5. Then the 19th Apr candle gave me a swing target of 20.5 (worked a treat with a perfect swing) so was a buyer again once it reversed at my target (best price managed 22c) but I only managed to buy back half of what I sold.
That brings us to today where I was again a seller (Today hit my swing target, created byApr 28th candle).
See how it shapes up Monday, but I'm probably going to sell some more into any rise




  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 5 2016, 02:16 PM


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Profits are bad ? see, thats news to me.. only fools like me think this caper is about profits
Obviously you think otherwise, and I think investors are delusional and usually rude individuals unwilling or unable to see reality
I'll leave you to your losses
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 5 2016, 12:50 PM


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Ohh dear, the unsophisticated fool is in profit again.
Wonder how the intelligent long term investors with all their business acumen are going ? Any profit yet ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 4 2016, 08:44 PM


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Hilarious !!!!
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 4 2016, 11:21 AM


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Must be embarrassing, with any fool able to make money and you're not ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 4 2016, 10:03 AM


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Hope NOT
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: May 4 2016, 08:41 AM


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Eden only need to do one thing.... Produce some customers SOON !

Building and construction industries are notoriously slow to pick up new technology. Some new start-ups with good ideas have fallen by the wayside altogether
simply because architects will not stick their neck out and use a new product in fear they could later face litigation if something goes wrong, especially structural products. Builders also, prefer traditional methods and are very slow to accept new technology.
This is why Eden must quickly show that their product has legs.
Next announcement needs to be "New Orders" flowing in ...imho NOT "We are asking the market for more money yet again"
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 29 2016, 12:09 PM


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Where and when are you holding from ? Thats the big Q
If you bought since last Oct, good trading. If prior, well ...You're an Investor
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 29 2016, 11:56 AM


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Worth a look now I reckon.
Obviously today's pop was news driven, however chart wise it has potential towards $1.00 within say 3mths.

I dont hold, but will look for an entry on a pullback, sometime within the next week
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 28 2016, 11:31 PM


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After having it pointed out to me that I have a "total lack of understanding of the correlation between share price, business and the economy."
I'M STAGGERED that despite my abundant inadequacies, I still managed to predict price movements
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 28 2016, 04:50 PM


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nice pop this arvo.
Things to note,
Last swing low was 1 tick higher than target,
Current swing exceeded target by 2 ticks.
Both positive signals for a possible double swing to occur and expanding price further.

Disclosure, still not traded but if I had, would be 1/2 traded out and holding the rest to see if we get some extra out of this move.
Chart developing nicely, interestingly, CVN turned up on my scan last night as a possible buy today.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 21 2016, 03:48 PM


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Traded this the other dayand going again. For chart traders.. have a look at this lil beauty
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 21 2016, 03:15 PM


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Tempted to sell some again after being a buyer yesterday BUT, this stock could easily run again on an announcement of a new customer ... going against my normal method might be the right move here...not sure
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 20 2016, 10:04 AM


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Hi Chum,
I'd say, everyone holding EDE is holding a ridiculous amount of profit, which makes it very easy to hit the sell button once price looks like sliding.
Sharp pullbacks will feature for a little while.
Additionally, a feature will be the bids coming back in to support any dip.
I was a seller yesterday and a buyer today, I'm taking opportunity to add more at no cost. I did lose some of my position as price rose quickly, sold what I thought was a top and then saw price continue on. This meant I had to buy fewer back, demonstrating how little I really know
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 19 2016, 12:17 PM


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Thanks, nice spike trade, appreciated
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 16 2016, 07:52 AM


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7.6ish target worked ok with a swing low @7.7.
Reaction followed to upside confirming a new swing target of 8.9ish but I note the prior high was 8.7 so, this should be a good indication on future forward direction.
I missed the entry on this occasion while I was pre-occupied with another trade more influential to my account.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 14 2016, 09:52 PM


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Don't fall in love with the story, only trade the price.... My most sincere advice
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 14 2016, 01:26 PM


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Market is giving a lesson here, that sentiment rules rather than fundamental value.
I sold some EDE and bought TAS last week, thinking the imbalance between fundamentals would resolve in my favour.... Wrong
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 14 2016, 11:44 AM


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Trading is such a ridiculous occupation.
I'm 23 bagger on EDE so I should be happy, BUT I managed to decrease my holding by 750k last week... So instead of being happy at the price jump on the bulk am still holding! I'm totally pissed off at being tricked into a sell.

Yep, First world problems, I know
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 13 2016, 09:17 AM


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I doubt there is the slightest evidence the Solomons possess ANY ability to generate income through normal business activity.
They are however, very accustomed to sticking their noses in the trough, raising capital from minor shareholders and then proceeding to find extraordinary reasons to need legal $ervices on any deal they do.
Eden need to appoint a proven management team with ability to turn a start-up business into a commercial success... ie; do real world funding via profits , not placements... As if that will happen
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 8 2016, 03:57 PM


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If Arty's on the case, it should be double by next week biggrin.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 5 2016, 05:30 PM


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back on the watchlist via a lower timeframe CHART
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 5 2016, 12:48 PM


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My guess, there is a temp top forming today
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 1 2016, 02:48 PM


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Sold a big chunk today, almost 12mths to the day since I placed the sell.
Want them back a little lower though, sub 10c would be nice.
Also sold the few TAS was holding but not so anxious to have them back again.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 21 2016, 10:15 PM


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Stopped-out the balance today.
New swing target 7.6c ish.
To re-enter long on a failure of this target, CVN would need to immediately show an 8.5 open and continue with little supply below 8.6 with a close above that level.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 9 2016, 01:42 PM


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low volume up day, halved my position.
Original tgt was 7.9 but when it blew that, I thought it might have another swing leg higher. Todays lack of demand will invite more selling.
Halve the risk seemed a good plan
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 9 2016, 01:24 PM


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Low volume down day, might be worth buying back around about here
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 2 2016, 10:39 AM


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Stopped and reversed again S&P mini.
Stops are killing good profits for me atm but I trade for a living so dont have the luxury of waiting for mkt to suit my trading style. Just have to fill up on humble pie and move on
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 1 2016, 12:26 PM


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Whatever, another guess
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  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 29 2016, 11:01 AM


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Am on the sell side of EDE today with a very small part fill and on the bid side of TAS with no chance of a fill today
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 29 2016, 09:33 AM


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Are you looking for exposure today ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 26 2016, 03:27 PM


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Baby steps again today
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 26 2016, 10:51 AM


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EB,
My S&P emini short got run over and now reversed. I gave up arguing with the market long ago. My Aussie mkt has not been stopped yet
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 25 2016, 11:28 AM


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Am going against the grain of current thought here.
Based on the absence of occurrences where the S&P falls as prior session did, then recovers for next swing another upswing ( a wide range day on low volume = lack of buyer support)
I suspect last night was about creating buyers to sell more stock to, hence I continue with the the lower swing target for US and AUS.
3 wave downswings are common and the sell more to the retailers fits reasoning behind this happening so often.
Just my crazy view of markets .
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 24 2016, 08:38 AM


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SP500 is sitting 9 points shy of my current swing high target. I'd expect a day or two sideways from here where the buying will be absorbed by sellers.
The wide range up they had overnight is often the bait to attract the buyer frenzy, so the pro's can fill their sell orders easily.

Am expecting our market to be struggling for gain which will leave people wondering why the US had a good night but not our market

As I say, I'm very often wrong
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 23 2016, 05:51 PM


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my guess
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  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 23 2016, 12:52 PM


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Sorry,
Was looking at All Ords chart
QUOTE
"See the Future Machine" of 5095

not exactly the same tops and bottoms
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 22 2016, 03:04 PM


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Everyone who pays gets a guess, here's mine

Feb 15th triggered a swing target on my "See the Future Machine" of 5095 and current mood of the market has been lasting about 6 days which gave me today or tomorrow morning as a top.
After that I have no signal and the intra action gives no exit signal.
I saw the 5000 level as stumbling block for my target however I just do the math and wait. I'm wrong more than I'm right so dont listen to a word from me
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 18 2016, 10:46 PM


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Anroo,
You're totally correct, I dont understand the correlation between share price business and the economy, because there hardly is one nowdays. Share price is driven by sentiment.
The rest of what you wrote I guess I'm supposed to be impressed but could easily be explained as sentiment.
Bull Mkt, people happy..sentiment, Bear Mkt , people sad...sentiment.
Consumer spending...sentiment
Business investment...sentiment
Considerations as you put it,,,,sentiment.

Fundamentals only fools while Sentiment rules
or in your words " Oil price bounced..CVN shares lost ground...market forces at work"....THAT'S SENTIMENT dude

Dont worry though, no matter how much you have lost so far and how much profit you will miss just getting back to square because CVN sentiment is showing signs of changing to rescue your arse

  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 15 2016, 09:16 PM


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QUOTE
Company's provide society with employment,demand for services in all aspects of the supply chain....

Manipulating the prospects of these company's hurts the economy as a whole..


If the Stockmarket closed its doors for the next 5 yrs, any existing Co which does not need to raise more cash, could happily trade on regardless. Share price has no affect on the economy, only the individual wealth of those holding the shares in these Co's
CVN operates as effectively regardless of the price the shares are trading at. The shares could be 1c tomorrow and it would make no difference to what the CVN Co does in the next year.

QUOTE
The facts are I want CVN to succeed which in turn will make my investment a success,win win if you like.


You need CVN' s price to be above what you paid but that has no effect on the Co's operating within society.

QUOTE
Short selling drains the market of investors who are providing the capitol...this is a fact.


Short selling drains the wealth of existing shareholders, not existing capital within the Company and provides new investors opportunity to buy at lower prices

QUOTE
Good luck with your strategy I have no intention of sitting in front of a screen and gambling.

Good luck with yours, I have no intention of ignoring serious decline in my wealth in some misguided sense of nobility

"The waterhol's drying up "

CVN's share price gave fair warning @22c that this waterhole was about to go into drought.. thats a 65% decline in someone's wealth...is that you ?
In today's world, when you buy a share, you're buying a "perception of value" not a piece of the Company. When perception changes, so does the price but not the Company. Look at history, Tulips and Rice once had great perceived value, oil Co's could be next
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 12 2016, 01:31 PM


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Your fellow "noble investors" are the major contributors to the price decline.
As far as ethics go, you came to the market to make money, just like everyone else. Time to realize you are no different except perhaps less skilled than those succeeding at it.
Stock trades contribute nothing to our society and therefore makes all of us, including you and me, parasites on society
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 12 2016, 12:51 PM


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Anroo, With respect, perhaps you need to reassess your criteria for investing in the stock market going forward in 2016.
The methods you are focusing on are no longer what drives the markets.
I believe the direction of this stock has been relatively easy to predict for considerable time when employing criteria which nowdays are the market drivers.
Simply blaming "shorters" for taking advantage of market forces is shifting the blame to the wrong area, majority of sellers remains the holders exiting the stock.
If holders refuse to enter the market by not accepting the lower bid, shorters lose money and add to the price as they are forced to cover their position.


mistagear
post Posted: May 18 2015, 09:06 PM
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Sentiment RULES , and Fundamentals only FOOLS.
Price is heading in the direction of the sentiment, sub 8c as I mentioned a mth ago is realistic if not inevitable. Sub 6c a possibility now



  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 9 2016, 11:01 PM


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First day back at work for 2016, checking a few prospects and I see CVN approaching my theoretical target @6c.
Does the patient have a pulse ? ....or not.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jan 27 2016, 10:24 PM


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What is this FA you speak of ?
Anyhow, the value opposed to the hype (AKA share price) should from this point forward, be always converted to USD
Solomon Bros are no dummies, this thing is being set up ready for a US take-over target and a 75/100 acre property will make a big statement.
Selling potential here, not just low carbon fuel with nanotubes as byproduct .... US $700m sounds cheap.

However,
Balance is correct, target is tech based
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jan 27 2016, 05:50 PM


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No, 75c/$1 target in 12mths
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Nov 26 2015, 09:15 PM


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JR,
I dont understand fundamentals or people who use them, so dont ask me, I'm clueless.
I daytraded it today, both short and long, dont chase divi'sbut was surprised someone didnt mention it.
How many sub $1 shares actually make money.,yet usually all the talk around this place is about dog stocks that burn cash at a great rate, and people keep talking about the fundas incessantly
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Nov 26 2015, 02:38 PM


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Fundamentalists should be buying today, you'd think ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Nov 25 2015, 05:41 PM


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Cooderman,

Only a suggestion,
If TA reflects sentiment rather than fundamentals,
an exponent should place lines on the chart at points, which best convey in a picture form, the sentiment of a stock at that time.
I suggest, a better way to show the current state of play in SWM would be,
to identify the gap down which is some news which the market reacted very strongly to
and then the subsequent reluctance by the market to sell down further than 65c.

Rather than mark the longer term trend which you have, as a possible break-out,
A horizontal resistance line around 78c where the stock found support prior to the news, then jumped down through on news. (Reconfirmed as significant because it acted as resistance to the bounce)
and possibly a second horizontal showing current support levels at 65c.
This would frame the action in a sideways range and identify a possible base forming. (quite possible)
What you could then trade, is pullbacks to the support where supporting evidence of a bounce, such as lack of sellers willing to sell down at those prices.
Then look to identify when supply comes in as price rises towards the resistance.
Current swings in SWM is running around 7% tradeable which would give you a reasonable risk reward ratio to justify entering a trade.
By doing this, if later proves the basing formation correct, you will be in a trade at near best price when sentiment changes and the stock jumps up through the resistance and heads north on a new uptrend. In meantime you profit on some reasonable swing trades while you wait for the multi-bagger.

A long convoluted post, sorry, I hope it makes sense.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Nov 25 2015, 10:04 AM


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Arty,
Good to see your cleaner template lately, focusing attention towards price and volume, not lagging indicators concealing price action. Also see the "Mick" influence through Davas Boxes to reveal sentiment changes on break-outs.
Merry Christmas and best wishes to Mick also
Cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Nov 16 2015, 10:25 PM


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Covered my hedge today. finally
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mistagear
Posted on: Oct 9 2015, 10:00 AM


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Still holding my 1/4, the cash index now sitting at 112% of volatility target.
I liked how, on the intra chart it paid notice to the level I am working with, suggests sufficient others in the market are seeing similar to what I'm seeing.
Always good to have some indication you are working with the current version map.
112% of swing is not enough break of level for me to re-enter a position and chase. If I'm awake tonight to trade (doubtful) and this leg up continues past the 13th minute of cash trading, I'll chase.
I'm more likely to wake early Sat morning and see where the daily bar is about to close and take action from there.
I find am more relaxed about my trading than in past, happy to take a little bit out of each swing rather than trade more heavily, making the broker richer while incuring more stopped trades
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Oct 8 2015, 02:01 PM


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Barra, about 95% chance the futures will correct to NOT gap the cash open.
My short entry signal is volume based negative daily bar/candle (sorry, its complicated). I dont expect that tonight, think it will be held up and go sideways, then

Either the demand extinguishes the increased supply and we go another leg higher after 1 or 2 more cash sessions or...

Supply extinguishes demand and we take a leg lower. (this is the outcome I suspect ) Possibly a weak down swing, approx 70% of the current volatility.

I'm still looking for greater up swings than down swings at this stage which makes me more hesitant to take an early short signal.
Reasoning is , of the last 4 swings the first down was the weakest. This is in context to the bigger push down prior, suggesting the fear has subsided and with 80% of the cash market long only traders, it makes for bigger up swings than down.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Oct 8 2015, 09:11 AM


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Hi EB,
Was long, took 3/4 off @ target, holding 1/4 but expect to be stopped.
My guess is sideways or down tonight so if I get a sell signal, I'll go short then. I've been burnt way too often trying to tell the market what to do.
Current volatility swings are approx 660 points so I dont need to nail the entry exactly to still make something out of the swing.
BTW, my data shows slightly different to yours, my high shows 16963.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Oct 6 2015, 10:22 PM


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Barra,
I'm wrong often enough that I'm almost an expert at it.
Only thing left to say is , I have a higher target for the DJI 16960 this swing high. Dont see much downside prior, only a rest day at most.
Plz refer the first sentence again.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Sep 7 2015, 09:04 PM


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Uni, so few traders @SS short trade, I don't often mention because people seem to be upset by shorting. This has has been such a joy to trade. Opportunities don't come along like this every day, when they present themselves, they are great to be on the right side of the trade.Hope you benefited, or at least, we're not caught long side.
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 14 2015, 01:18 PM


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607 my theoretical swing target, so far went to 609 and I'm looking to cover my position here
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 12 2015, 07:04 PM


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Good News / Bad News.
Bad News first.... Stopped on my long position

Good News second.... I'm a Swing Trader so when the market tells you "You are wrong " you take the opposite side of the trade instead.
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 10 2015, 10:27 PM


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Cato, an uneducated guess
Usual tests on concrete are at 7 days then 28 days , that makes Tues or Wed a possibility to report something to market.
I did not expect interest quite so early, had been trying to buy Fri arvo and at open but had to scramble a little to fill as price started to move.
Was cursing that I had to pay up higher than my sells on some orders but by 3pm was happy I had.
I have a swing target 11c at this stage,see how excited they get on news
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 9 2015, 06:23 PM


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its come from $15, of course its a short.
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 7 2015, 02:59 PM


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FWIW, Around $6.75 is my theoretical level where price might react to create a swing higher.
Getting pretty close and my levels are rough guides not exact points.
Todays close "might" be a buy..we'll know next week I guess... I'm contemplating it anyhow
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 6 2015, 10:24 AM


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Chum,
7.6 was a strong hold, 7.1 a full swing. Waiting for the next news event next week. Friday's vote should not be mkt sensitive therefore the strength or otherwise will be shown by the number of sellers prepared to give up their holdings by crossing the spread to sell.
Untill next week I'm a seller above 7.6 and a buyer below.

BTW, didnt receive an IM if you sent one as you mentioned.
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 4 2015, 09:45 PM


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Boy,Thank you very much for sharing, most heartfelt genuine piece I have seen on here, ever.
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 4 2015, 09:04 PM


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MYR opened the day well, went up through the 127.5 level and then reacted to the level for almost an hour. This gives a hint that the level we picked held some significance to other traders.
If you load an intra-day chart you can see the reaction, the lack of volume prepared to push price back down and the only volume which crossed the spread from the sell side had no effect on the depth of buyers at the top level of the ladder.
The low volume reaction/ no counter push down, showed the strength that existed...... (Strength is revealed in a DOWN move. ie you cant see how much strength exists while price is moving up, its only when price is attempting to go down that you see how many buyers prepared to stand their ground and support the price level).


Where to from here.
If you took the tight stop option, you remain in the trade. I'd now move the stop right up to the 127.5 level. If that is touched tomorrow, I'd be out asap.

If you took profit already at the 127.5, you've bagged an 8% gain in 7 days, good on you for sticking to the plan.
What you need now is another trade, so need to decide if MYR is once again, the best trade you can find.. if so you have to say
MYR sailed past the 1st swing target, does it have the legs to go another leg ?
Lets look.
swing range is about 7c so if you can buy the 130 level in the morning, target is 137c (that looks about right on past levels of the chart) but... thats only a target of 5% on entry cost.
Thats not enough potential gain for me to risk a stop... For that reason, I'm out ! Looking elsewhere
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 4 2015, 05:22 PM


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I've been Rinse and Repeat each day on part of my holding and again today, however todays close printed an ugly bar and became an invite to supply the market.
Am holding and waiting to see what the holders will do, can this thing can hold above 7.6 on lowish volume.
Hoping they release some news very soon.
I've kept buying more each rinse and this is becoming less easily managed, please Mr Solomon Bros, dangle some juicy fruit before Friday's hoedown
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 4 2015, 09:25 AM


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Hi EB,
IMHO looks like both DOW and SP500 ran out of sellers. There was a big sell around 12.30 US time which then went sideways for about 2 hours while the selling was being absorbed, then as the sellers became scarce, the buyers started to bid higher.
An attempt to swing higher is in progress and we will see whatever weakness exists in this move by how heavily stacked the Offer is as we go higher.

As usual, I could be wrong
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Aug 3 2015, 05:40 PM


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Mr Joules parted from SS before this trade played out. anyhow

The 118 entry worked and the target was 127.5. I see the stock approaching this level BUT volume and range are declining, therefore I would suggest tightening the stop to capture
as much of the move as we can.
Alternatively you could just place a sell in he market at the target and hope you are filled and that price does not continue on.

I'm going to take a guess that tomorrows Aussie market will be up and that MYR might take a small run up in the morning also, therefore I'd look to sell around 11am ish if strength begins to fade.
If you favour the tight stop method, you would want to see some accelerating price advance because if it hangs around too long at the 127 level, it will invite nervous sellers to enter the market and it will quickly turn into a swing down leg and wipe out the profit so far.
To be honest, I did not trade this and would not normally look twice any stock which has a current swing potential below 7%.
You have to swing trade almost perfectly to make the risk worthwhile taking the entry signal
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 3 2015, 05:40 PM


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Double post, sorry
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mistagear
Posted on: Aug 2 2015, 11:38 PM


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Hey EB,

Sticking to my targets with an ETA of Thursday for our market XJO, Wednesday's US session for SP500.

Cant stick my neck out any further than that
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 30 2015, 09:49 PM


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Chum,I used the Market Analyser for about a decade but now I am using free Incredible charts which is delayed data and my broker provides Iress charts which are crap, but live.VSA is about understanding the relationship between volume and price, the influence volume has on price and the influence price has on volume. Cause and effect, how much it takes to go how far. More logic than anything else TA or fundamental, that I have ever seen.You don't need indicators, just simple understanding so the most basic of charting is sufficient for VSA.There are some guys OSeas who do a charting package for VSA which produces the logic into descriptive signals and explains bar by bar.I've never used it but have chatted to a couple of traders who find it very worthwhile. It can be used on Aus stocks.Google Tom Williams VSA for the Tradeguider software or if you want to learn the system originally developed by Richard Wyckoff there is a Wyckoff method site where you can learn from pure Wyckoff Style traders for free.
Feel free to message me if you want.
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mistagear
Posted on: Jul 30 2015, 01:43 PM


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EB, my target was a volatility one, when I have since looked at Weekly and Monthly charts, the top figure looks close to where some long term eyes will be looking.
Window mentioned would offer a nice area to unload some to retail exuberance
Markets never go in straight lines, but so far I have no reason to change view.
I'm often wrong
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 30 2015, 10:33 AM


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my guess

5740-5770 swing with pike... means a 3 wave move with a top in the 5740 to 5770 window. Will take a number of days. maybe a week.
Pure guess only, same as all the so called experts except they get paid for their guesses
................................................................................
..........................

SPX 2140- 2160, same shape/time etc
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 29 2015, 04:06 PM


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Howdy C,
The level is based on the current volatility of the stock. Swings from highs to lows based on the people who are currently participating in the action.
When a stock is trading quietly, there is a different bunch of people buying and selling than when a stock is running.
I have a ratio which helps. Does not work every time but often enough for me to trade it.
I'm not telling the market when to turn, simply that if a stock reacts at or very near my point, I'll take action based on my ratio.
When the market acts differently, it generally gives me a heads up to future swings, either suggests a stronger or weaker reaction will follow.
If a stock goes through my level by a big enough margin, it usually reflects continuation of the current move.
Basis of this theory is
Every stock goes so far in one direction before people decide its too dear or too cheap..Thats when the opposite swing starts to manifest itself.
Early on in my trading I had the distinct ability to sell at the very bottom and buy at the very top. I've developed a ratio in my favour instead of my natural talent of doing the exact wrong thing.
Works often enough to continue with it.

Just as interest, the target for the high was theoretically 8.9c but I doubted my numbers and was selling 8.1/8.4
Been buyin back this arvo, if it falls further I'll lighten the load up again
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mistagear
Posted on: Jul 29 2015, 01:05 PM


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Agree for now, bounce once more off that support...
because everyone looking at the chart sees the level and is more likely to bid there, plus people who bought there previously (fundamentalist) and made money are more likely to buy at the similar level (rinse and repeat).
In the background to that is continued weakness, owners who missed selling the last rise will be more willing to participate should it begin to fall once more..
In March it made $9 then next attempt only made $8.50. Volumes and volatility need to decline and eventually wash out all the sellers..
After that, STO might build a base and later change sentiment with good news.
My thoughts only, am wrong often
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mistagear
Posted on: Jul 29 2015, 11:03 AM


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Hi Balance,

I attempt to read sentiment from raw price, volume and volatility , then assume where price is heading from past repeating patterns in the life-cycle of markets and individual shares.
Sept 2014 saw a sentiment change sufficient to knock STO from its previous range ($11 to $16) into the current range. The stock will need some significant event to reverse the negative sentiment, otherwise sellers will continue to control and price will eventually test the lower limits.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 29 2015, 09:32 AM


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In relation to discussion on the OIL Thread mentioning STO.
I believe we will see a price very close to, if not just lower than $6.00 in coming months. Also, the prior top of range hit in March of $9.18 , will not be achieved again before the final test of the lows occurs. Would be surprised if it prints anything north of high $7s
Opinion only.


QUOTE
Posts: 1,814
Thanks: 656


In Reply To: Carsha's post @ Dec 5 2014, 09:46 AM

A misinformed view.

When I look at the long term charts, STO is now living in a new reality, range $6 to $9 with say 2% outliers above/below the range.

not trading it, purely bored opinion
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mistagear
Posted on: Jul 28 2015, 10:04 PM


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Due for pullback and in my play book a (swing low) turning point higher than 6.6c will signal a strong continuation of the trend.A turn lower would decrease potential for the next advance leg.
Elliott traders might have an idea what I just said, however if you read this and assume I'm nuts, do not be concerned, it's similar to the view held by my therapist.Disclosure. My therapist holds EDE
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mistagear
Posted on: Jul 27 2015, 11:01 PM


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Nobody joined the dots yet ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 25 2015, 11:31 AM


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volume on the highs = nobody of size is interested except sellers
calculated risk is lower when you buy shares going up, not going down.
Trying to pick lows is about ego not risk mitigation, but feel free to keep losing money buying the wrong direction, its your prerogative.
Cheers, M
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 24 2015, 07:33 PM


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137 million shares and not a single holder in profit.... Another cash burner in every respect.
I wish the faithful all the luck, you're going to need it
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 23 2015, 04:28 PM


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Alkimos asked

QUOTE
Does anyone want to play the traditional, ‘What will FAR’s sp be by Christmas 2015’?


I'd play, but dont think your invite included a Charty or Trader, and I consider myself in both groups.
Good luck with it anyhow !
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mistagear
Posted on: Jul 23 2015, 02:12 PM


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Hi Joules,
MYR today is at a possible/likely swing low 118c being the target which it hit and so far has bounced. A close today above with some closing volume would be a positive if wanting a long position in this stock . imho
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 22 2015, 09:14 AM


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I'm not very smart, so I'm not surprised that most of the time, I dont have a clue what you are talking about.

Cheers, M
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 21 2015, 07:53 AM


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Plus...... Fast weekly, live long to trade long errr and short lol
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 20 2015, 11:49 PM


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Assuming you can sell some milk shakes before the Dairy down the road decides to sell out at lower prices than wholesale.When that happens the Use-by date means nothing and your plan turns to moo-poo
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 20 2015, 11:06 PM


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I'd expect a reaction where price briefly pops up and then the weakness will continue as traders continue to supply any rise.Would advise keeping a tight leash on long side stops.But hey, I'm often wrong.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 18 2015, 08:34 PM


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Seems the most reliable systems for making money from the markets, are the ones which sell subscriptions
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 18 2015, 08:56 AM


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I'm guessing there will be an excuse for a Shake-out before long.When Insto's sell tops, they need to buy back greater volume at the bottom, not easy in a pure V reversal but achievable with a shake-out. Sort of like, burger and fries to go, you usually don't order one without the other
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 17 2015, 08:48 AM


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In times of increased volatility, you could do worse than to follow a mechanical system based on long above/short below the line. Adding contracts when impulsive counter swings revisit the line.
Volatility is such a joyful thing
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 16 2015, 06:02 PM


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Joules,
Would you mind placing a 30EMA on that chart, just for the hell of it.
Please, thanks etc
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 15 2015, 04:16 PM


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My cousin, Mister Generic, told you these things in confidence. He says, please dont dismiss him as plain and ordinary or his commentary as bland, despite him using common tools which are designed to corral and deceive the unwary.
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mistagear
Posted on: Jul 13 2015, 07:34 PM


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Joules,
Thanks for posting your charts, nice and clean, no clutter of useless indicators to distract from the action.
Appreciated.
Do you find the "Sentiment Service" well worth subscribing or average ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 13 2015, 09:44 AM


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Something happening here ?
Not enough price and volume data for me to chew over, but someone might be moving the deckchairs
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mistagear
Posted on: Jul 9 2015, 09:58 PM


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I've watched these guys trade live, few yrs back, they're totally crap at trading and great at selling.Besides, it's far more difficult to trade futures nowadays from here in Aus, the HFT has increased the speed and the lag due to our distance only makes it harder to scalp. So if you are forced to position trade rather than scalp, you want to have deep pockets and a bloody good system or the Pro' will eat you alive.I've totally stopped trading the cash session because of the lag and HFT, ghetto after hrs and night sessions are ok but lack of volatility can make it slow going compared to previous yrs
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 9 2015, 09:48 PM


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Wolver,If the theory plays out, textbook reaction would bounce to around 375 on Eshmun's chart, before having another more gradual swing down to the recent support area.Then it's sideways for considerable time with the occasional reaction northward but always contained within the 2 extremes of this current action. Could be some reasonable trades for a charity trader over next few months. I do not have access to trade this, however without volume info I would not trade even if I did have access
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jul 8 2015, 07:50 PM


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Chart looks like an exhaustion. Not saying it is, but has the appearance of one.
If I traded the chart (which I dont) I'd be looking for signs of reversal. I know nothing about IO...just saying it may provide a low risk entry for the disciplined trader
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Jun 27 2015, 06:28 PM


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for any car enthusiasts,

The Goodwood Festival of Speed is being streamed live now and tomorrow.
go to www.goodwood.com and look for the FOS live Feed.

Enjoy
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mistagear
Posted on: Jun 25 2015, 10:02 PM


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Funny, I was trading live on that night , saw the 666 hit and some guys in the States I traded with (a group trading room) predicted a major turn that very week.
Well I followed them and went long 5 contracts EMini S&P @667.50, scaled out and took up to 20pts on each contract.
Thought how smart I was.... but think if I had just kept rolling them over every 3 mths since.... I do not dare work out how much profit that would be, but it's squillions
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mistagear
Posted on: Jun 9 2015, 10:32 PM


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But you thought 14c looked cheap, in fact nomatter what price CVN has been in the last 5yrs, you have alwaysclaimed it to be cheap. Whatever the positive version of crying wolf is, that's you , and Sorry Flower, you have NFI where this thing is going
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: May 30 2015, 08:08 AM


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Sharescene has almost reached the, lack of critical mass point, where the number of posts has dropped to a level where it is no longer worth visiting.I now go days and days between visits and when I do visit there is little of interest. Wonder if it is less people trading or perhaps everyone has gone to HC ?Whatever the cause, SS owners need to do something quickly or else their forum risks disappearing totally IMO
Maybe it can become the CUV only forum
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mistagear
Posted on: May 18 2015, 08:06 PM


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Sentiment RULES , and Fundamentals only FOOLS.
Price is heading in the direction of the sentiment, sub 8c as I mentioned a mth ago is realistic if not inevitable. Sub 6c a possibility now
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 27 2015, 09:48 PM


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Boy,
I am wondering, do you trade as your primary income ?
If so, how long have you traded full-time ?
Have your beliefs/opinions changed or evolved since you started to trade full-time ?
Cheers, M
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 18 2015, 06:48 PM


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Flower,
I respect you for sticking to your guns, it's your money and your call. I have absolutely no problem with that

and at the same time, I disagree with the method, but that is actually the beauty of the market. Everyone needs another trader to have the opposite view for the market to work.
Good luck to you Flower, you're a stayer, thats for sure.

Now I'll stop being so nice and go back to being Mistagear
Cheers
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 18 2015, 01:52 PM


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Flower,
QUOTE
Instead of concentrating on a dead market and 12c SP today for CVN, how about looking at The Big Picture for CVN which IMO has all sorts of forward possibilities?


Like I said previously, market is not looking at that stuff, thats why you're at odds with where you believe price should be and where price is. What you look for is not what the people selling their holding are looking at, its those people who determine share price
Cheers, M
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 18 2015, 08:34 AM


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I'm suggesting members mind their manners when expressing opposing views and have some respect for the person, rather than single out individuals to bully.If people can not conform to acceptable behaviour, probably best if they don't post. I admit to past occasions where I was rude and disrespectful, but will be more mindful of such bad manners in future.
I think Sharescene would be a better forum if we could all have some respect towards all participants
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 17 2015, 06:13 PM


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Hi Flower,
I'm reluctant to answer in fear of exciting the trolls and inflaming the endless derogatory remarks.

My opinion is that assets or valuations are not what sets the price. Emotion is the overwhelming driver of share price.
For holders, the problem is that perhaps the 90% majority might agree on valuation, but on any given day, its the emotional 10% of holders who are selling which sets the price.
This sentiment can continue endlessly, regardless of any value, perceived or real.
As you know, I ignore value, simply because it has almost no influence on sentiment and/or price.
With respect, You are likely to be perplexed regularly if looking for correlation between value and share price.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 17 2015, 05:17 PM


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Probably due for a couple of weeks swing lower, not forgetting this trend has been alive since 2012, the volumes over the last few weeks are saying fewer traders feel there is value in buying long.
My guess, there would have been a larger than normal number of "in the money Calls" exercised at the last Options expiry. A good way for writers to lighten positions without spooking the market.
I reckon there is a sell pattern visible on the XJO over the past eight or nine weeks, making a 400pt downswing a reasonable prospect going forward from here.
I've tightened stops.
Dont follow me, I'm lost
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 17 2015, 10:17 AM


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buy-stop hit yesterday.
Slightly annoyed I set it so close to the action. In my playbook, 23.5 was the reaction level bound to be hit after previous days had failed to provoke some more downside. (so why did I set the stop level at that point derrr)
Am in no-mans land now, cant find a low risk short entry position (would require a stoploss/gain ratio outside my trading parameter)
This price range may form a basing structure anyhow, so I'm on the sideline for now
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 16 2015, 01:40 PM


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Recent price action suggests sub 10c , and down to 8c is possible and almost likely. Sorry to say, for holders here.
This stock continues to find more sellers than buyers willing to cross the spread
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 15 2015, 11:42 AM


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Are you trading with a market maker ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 14 2015, 06:08 PM


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Carsha,
I'm sort of a follower of Richard Wyckoff's Volume Spread Analysis.
Basically a cause and effect philosophy, how much effort did it take to move a distance.
This tells you how much sentiment is hidden on the other side of the move as well as the amount of sentiment in the direction of the move.
after watching a number of these moves, you gather a feel for overall sentiment in the market.

I attempt to let the market tell me, rather than me try to tell the market. Forecasters are continually telling the market where it should head.
As far as trading this philosophy, I find it easiest to place myself in a trade at points where the cause and effect has stopped moving the market, in expectation that a move opposite may occur.
My stops are both close to the action and frequently triggered, therefore the win/loss ratio is not impressive, but the ratio of gain/loss gives me a positive expectancy in profits.

I totally ignore fundamentals, simply because. sentiment is the major driver of market moves. On any day in the market, the people trading emotionally make up only say 5 or 10% of total stock in a Co, yet are 95% of the trades. The trades are what set price, not fundamentals of a Co.

The above represents my beliefs in the market and in no way attempts to convince anyone else of it's correctness or otherwise. Please dont be concerned if your beliefs differ to mine
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 14 2015, 09:54 AM


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For me, I totally disagree, but its a personal thing and any method needs the matching psychology to have success.
So, its not wrong, just wrong for me. I tried shorting using that method and I pick trades that continue to languish and go nowhere.
Shorting, for me, is capturing the impulsive moves, often the best impulsives are counter trend trades, so looking for a weak stock can be just as damaging to your account as shorting a top performer.
Whatever works for the individual, no method is right and most are not wrong either.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 10 2015, 08:20 AM


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Bradley,
Welcome, did not look at who the original post was from, so I was making a joke due to ambiguity of the subject matter, not making fun of the Author.

Dont take things so personally while you're here, otherwise you probably wont enjoy the experience.
BTW, only thing I had heard about investing in Shipping Containers was, it's a scam, however I have no evidence and no interest, I trade Shares
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 9 2015, 11:55 PM


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I can never find the right lid to fit, and there's a bunch of containers in my cupboard that are the wrong shape or wrong size.
I'd invest in plastic bags instead, they take up less room
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 9 2015, 02:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

Hi EB,

Not many ppls at Sharescene these days to engage in interesting discussions, so I only drop by occasionally to catch up.
Hope all the old faces are doing ok, because there seems very few newbies are entering the Share game.
Thanks for the compliment, but I'm doing ok, wouldn't call it "well". Good on you if you are !
Cheers, Pete
PS, been trying to buy some stuff out of China recently, boy those guys are hard to do biz' with, they do things very differently to here in Aus, its hard to get my head around the customs.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 9 2015, 12:21 PM


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Posts: 1,916

Re- Divergence on All Ords chart.

At the beginning of Feb, you could assume Macd would show divergence in the following month or two.
Reason is, the way MACD is calculated on moving averages. The swing up Jan 20 to Feb 6 was an outlier swing, approx 30-40% greater than the recent average swing.
This in turn will create divergence on the following swings unless they are similar in points gained and duration.
When you see a swing of that size and duration, about 90% of the time it will be followed by a shallower swing.
IMHO, MACD is just another lagging indicator with no evidence of statistical advantage.
  Forum: Macro Factors

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 2 2015, 09:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

Oh dear, seems I've upset you.Can't comply with your wishes, but do hope you have a happy Easter.Cheers,
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mistagear
Posted on: Apr 2 2015, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
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Can you make your posts shorter plz, say, two or three lines.Thanks
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 24 2015, 05:30 PM


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Mookie,
Not been watching, although that would fit with a theory that an Operator is at work.
Example only : Mr O buys 15m on Fri at close and pays 27c, he then opens the market on Monday by buying 2m more @29c , then starts selling into the traders orders who's software has triggered the price and volume increase. By Tues arvo, Mr O has sold much of his Friday stock but by now it's difficult to lift the buyers into the offers, so he whacks out nearly 9m into the bids and by now is sitting back having a single malt, having sold his 15m at about 2c profit and 2m at cost. Not bad for a couple of days trade.
Would also be handy to do this sort of play when some speculative news is about to break, it helps take the focus away from the actual trades taking place.
I'm obviously wrong about this stuff, but it amuses me to consider the possibilities
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 24 2015, 02:32 PM


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Mookie,
Thanks for the info.
My short was stopped Fri but I'd try another one if the price pushes up a bit more with supply evident
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 18 2015, 08:09 PM


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I know sweet FA about FA
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 18 2015, 09:24 AM


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Posts: 1,916

Batik,
With respect, I dont see a relationship between last November $2.80ish and Feb's $1.60ish. I dont see that as a trend or relating in any way. so to call a "breakout" implies some connection or trend etc.
I do see a connection betweenDec's low $1.70ish, the fail through that price zone in Jan and a resistance fail at the $1.70 ish level in Feb.
Therefore if I put a line on the chart, it would be horizontal across $1.70. That point seems to have significance and historical relationship.imho

Just my thoughts, not saying I'm any more correct than your opinion, simply expressing a view.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 15 2015, 08:45 AM


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What if you're wrong ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 9 2015, 03:29 PM


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Posts: 1,916

Short side looking better, sold some at the drop through 32c level but thinking it may bounce soon, purely on the swing level achieved from the last swing high.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 9 2015, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

Are you sure it's THAT day ?

I've got a Dentist appointment on that day, if I cancel to stay at work to short everything, I may end up with a toothache and you know how painful that can be.


BTW, thanks for the heads up, wow what a great system this god thing is. I might think about converting from Buddhism
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mistagear
Posted on: Mar 2 2015, 09:12 AM


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tipped out of the long, probably wait a few days to see if there's another trade here
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 25 2015, 10:33 PM


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Chukk,
6k point to point or 3k round trip, sounds ok to me. I already have an electric unicycle (Airwheel) with 18k point to point but you need some balancing skills which limit it's market potential
I want to get from my car to the office, or from home to the train and back again.
I imagine there are millions upon millions of people who have a similar need currently
By comparison,
How many people have the need to fly a jetpack ?
I'm thinking , Unit cost / practical demand / fitting within existing infrastructure and or meeting a current need, then there is the usual investor dillution and regulatory delays in every new exotic concept
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 25 2015, 07:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

Mookie,
Average price rose by 1c from yesterday to 32.5 but the highest number of trades was @33c , suggests a buy bot. The move was quite impulsive rather than corrective.
By that I mean, rather than price rising because sellers ran out at the lower level, what caused price to rise was buying into the offer.
I'm inclined to think that someone who could be described as "An Operator" is in control.
The stock did not fulfill the higher low criteria today that I was looking for, which kept me out of a trade. Tomorrow I will be watching intra day charts for a sign of strength in the form of a dip which is above the average price today.
I am happy to go with this Operator because he has shown ability to conduct the market in worthwhile increments.
A breakaway gap at open tomorrow would have me chasing an entry early into the session.

If not an Operator, then an insider prior to news, as you suggested
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 25 2015, 03:20 PM


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Posts: 1,916

I'd rather buy this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDSqjvBIpWg

Would be more likely to turn a profit for investors, as well
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 24 2015, 02:47 PM


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Posts: 1,916

Sitting at the level I was looking at previously (the one I thought would be greater resistance than the demand ..subsequently proved incorrect)
Not one afraid of being wrong on consecutive occasions,
I've noticed falling volumes since the highs in January, and on each occasion enthusiasm attempted to lift price, the sellers were more than happy to sell into the demand.
I'm swaying towards price drop through the 30c support, but in any case, I think something will happen fairly soon to resolve the lack of current direction.
Theoretically, I'd short a close where the high of day is lower than 32c.
Alternatively, say the share starts to show a higher low, above 31.5 and volume comes in taking out the offer, I'd think about a long trade and naturally that would rule out a short.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 5 2015, 10:01 AM


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That explains the strange shape of your head in your profile pic biggrin.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mistagear
Posted on: Feb 4 2015, 11:01 AM


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Right or wrong, Today I've locked in a hedge for all of my long position.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jan 30 2015, 06:50 PM


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Lock it in Eddie ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jan 17 2015, 09:03 PM


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Mookie,
You're right, I didnt make a mistake.........I made TWO mistakes.

I never regret mistakes I make in trading, its part of the business. I only have regrets if I allow a mistake to compound a loss beyond the parameter I set at the time.
Now, the First mistake in this case was the tech reading, no biggie, as stataed.
The Second mistake was a doosie .. My number 1 rule is to trade what you get, not what you think.
I saw the chart moving and failed to trade any part of the move... That is Cardinal sin for a Trader
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jan 12 2015, 11:31 AM


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Posts: 1,916

I got it wrong, price kept going through the 30/31c level where I thought resistance from sellers would defeat demand.

Not unusual for me to be wrong with trading, only mentioned it because most traders never volunteer to identify their mistakes
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Jan 5 2015, 09:12 PM


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A shameless ramp of my Co,
X Games Bowling.com
A new scoring system to change Bowling into an easy to follow, competitive and watchable Sporting Contest.
(about 15mins in this video)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRUclv_JWbY
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 30 2014, 09:47 PM


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ditto
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 30 2014, 08:40 PM


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Hi Wren,
Merry Xmas , Happy New Year .

Momentum indicators will do that when a strong trend then fails to continue to make ground at the same rate. Trouble is, the steeper the trend, the sooner it gives a buy/sell for the opposing view.
I reckon it might be basing and after such a prolonged trend I'm banking on a prolonged accumulation period.
Now when I look at where the volume came in to halt the decline, I reckon it's a patient operator who is now gathering stock. If so, he'll also be prepared to sell into any rise and then wait for the market to come to him on the down move weeks.
Wish you luck with the trade, but obviously I suspect rises will be short lived for a while yet.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 30 2014, 11:01 AM


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my personal chart (means, I see things that perhaps nobody else agrees with)

Weekly chart shows an accelerating downtrend to a point where price collapsed in a possible exhaustion of the sellers (W/ending 31 October).
Since then, because sellers have been scarce, buyers who are impatient have been forced to pay higher, which caused the reaction against the trend (W/E 14 November)
Price again started to fall in direction of the trend, which brings out more sellers, fearing missing the few buyers remaining. (W/E 28 Nov)
That move dropped price once again through the previous low 20.5c to a new low 18.5c
The last time price was rising and then failed was around 30c, that becomes the breakout point for the current basing activity.
Additional resistance to price rising is the area below 26c to 23c , this is because the large amount of volume traded within that recent range, many new (weak) owners will be holding a loss and therefore more likely to sell into any buyers when price manages to get back near their buy in price.

My thoughts going forward. Since the possible exhaustion, there is evidence that buyers are absorbing the sellers, but the fact that price again was able to reach a new low, shows there remains significant selling volumes.
If this IS the base which will in the future be see as the "buying bargain price", any remaining weak sellers need to be dried up. This would mean price bouncing sideways between 30c down to 18c and eventually a point where price tries to go lower and fails to make lower ground.
At a guess, I reckon there is at least another 3 months in this sideways pattern before price can leave the zone. Not necessarily leaving and going higher, could leave the zone and go lower.
So far, points to higher but there is no trade for me while it does this sideways action
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  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 22 2014, 08:29 PM


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Posts: 1,916

Dont let me spoil your party, I'm always wrong anyhow, but...
I think Insto's are driving the Christmas bonus for themselves and after Xmas we'll see a blow-off / exhaustion move on many Bluechips
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 21 2014, 09:07 PM


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I'll take 70c on the Chocolate Wheel of misfortune, thanks
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 19 2014, 09:41 AM


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Nice Short squeeze at open
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 18 2014, 09:58 PM


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Probably look like a goose as early as tomorrow, but I was filled on a sell today, took 1.5c and ran/waddled away
Crude might get buyers remorse and if so, I'll look smart, otherwise... I'll be wearing feathers.

I could easily have taken half and kept half, but I'm convinced that strategy is usually more about trying see oneself as "right", an ego play more than economic sense
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 12 2014, 04:26 PM


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Posts: 1,916

Barra,
If you are trading with a non DMA Provider ie: a Market Maker, then the $7.60 you saw on their system was your Provider squeezing their clients. This will happen again, its how they make money.

To lessen the profit from a client wishing to exit a short position they raise the Ask and that works for anyone looking to go long also, they have to pay more to enter which the provider knows will increase chance of triggering a stop on the long when the rubber band springs back..which it did.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 12 2014, 03:59 PM


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Posts: 1,916

Hi Cooder,
Today on intra charts there was an upthrust bar followed by a no demand signal just after 3pm so I was happy to exit at the low of the upthrust (274c) You could see the sellers coming in so was happy to take my scalp and run.
281c was my theoretical top but the 300c you mentioned may eventuate. The way other tech traders jumped in to sell below the 280c, I'm now interested in getting set short again so will look for signals Monday. Odds dont really favour a reversal of trend from here, so I think short is the way to go.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 12 2014, 09:43 AM


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Will trade sub 1c imho
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 11 2014, 05:04 PM


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Posts: 1,916

Hi Melula,
A past level of resistance (Jul 2013) became a support which held a couple of times between (Nov 13 to Jan 14) So is an area where traders have had success buying at that level, makes people more confident to buy again. This often means more buyers willing to step up again at a similar point.
Also, the current swings, where price has fallen to a point where either sellers dig their heels in and have refused to go lower, or it has fallen so far, buyers start to see opportunity as a cheap buy.
Currently the swing down and that past support combining at the $2.40ish level which increases chance of a bounce.
I have no idea how strong the support might be if sellers continue, but if they ease off hitting the bids, then price will rise for a while and a counter swing in the opposite direction to the longer term trend occurs

PS, some early indication buyers are absorbing the sells
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 11 2014, 02:49 PM


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Posts: 1,916

I'm reminded why "buy n hold" sucks.
I was holding and sold @ 19, if that was a $10k position I would have held 52600 shares.
If I had held instead, I'd be down 32% on my investment today worth only $6550. , a $3450 loss
not only that
A buy back $10k position today would be 80000 shares.
if CVN gets to 30c as some here have predicted, my 80,000 shares would be showing $14,000 profit, against buy n hold would be showing $5786..
thats $8200 worse of using the buy n hold.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 11 2014, 01:24 PM


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A bounce now would be good
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 11 2014, 09:54 AM


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Hi Cooder,

I suspect MYR is finding support here. The 60 minute chart shows increasing volume with no further decline in price. Thats buyers absorbing the selling. If that continues, price will rise, temporarily at first, but depending on subsequent selling after the bounce will determine if it will find longer term support at this range
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  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 10 2014, 07:00 PM


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Hi Mookie,

Honestly, not much of that matches what happened to the stock price and it seems like the trade is predominantly a punt based on, because price has sunk so far, it must go up soon.
You are banking on good production numbers but what if the sentiment remains negative and takes no notice of production change. Appears like buying in the hope, rather than having some edge because of logic or rational application. To me the markets can stay irrational for much longer than anyone can say with any certainty.

QUOTE
Sentiment is very negative, but this I believe presents me with the opportunity at hand. A danger is that good news comes and sentiment is so bad nothing happens or the price falls anyway.

I can not see how anyone can trade this method, looks like we will just have to agree to disagree, I was hoping some common ground could be found but it's not happening.
Thanks for the time you put into the replies, I appreciate the effort, good luck with the trade.
Regards, Mistagear
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 10 2014, 10:48 AM


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been short MYR since the failed long signal @ 184c but just covered it today 144c.
Wouldnt be game to go long but swing level and price action is looking like a bounce. It might even go to 160c

Pure guess, dont listen to me
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 10 2014, 08:12 AM


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Posts: 1,916

Agree, have been short since the Tech break of the $5 level as mentioned previously.
if the next swing low manages to reach $2.40 , I'd expect another swing higher attempt around there. If this continues along the tech pattern, am thinking the volatility may reduce around the $2.40 to $2.00 level and for the stock to make a base in that price range.
So far its tracking the pattern very nicely
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 6 2014, 07:52 PM


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Flower,
Would prefer to keep this discussion between Mookie and me, if you dont mind

Thanks in advance, M
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 6 2014, 01:46 PM


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Mookie,
Appreciate this.

I looked at the chart, can you point me towards the fundamental reasons why price started to drop at end of Oct 2013 ?
Mid March 2013 decline began to accelerate. Is there any report I can justify that happening ?
Price stabilized April through to June where it collapsed again. Is there anything I can track for this ?
July to end of Oct value of the stock declined 65% but none since. Is there something I can see to reason this ?
I've tried to read a couple of quarterlies but cant see why the stock is now trading back at 2010 prices. The reports seem to talk about increased production and capacity with lower per/oz costs.
Why is the value so low now ? Spot Gold was $1310 in Oct 2013 and $1190 now, which does not seem to explain the loss in BDR's value. 97c to current 22c (almost 80% loss)
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 6 2014, 09:16 AM


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This is quite difficult to write from an obviously biased view (so far at least) without seeming bent on criticism.
I fully expect you should question my methods in turn.

At this point, I'm struggling to see how the method is anything but a punt.
"Price has fallen for 12mths so far, so it must stop soon" the principle.
You hope the market is moving in anticipation of good results, but the market does not move down in straight lines. How do you tell this rise is the one where a 75% decline stops ?
If it does stop here, how long might it languish in the doldrums before giving you a return on your risk taken ?
You hope the rest of the market are wrong and you are right. How do you gauge when/if your view proves incorrect ?
You mentioned 16c, do you sell if it goes below that point?
Do you continue to average down ? Have you calculated the risk and cost of averaging down ?
Will you sell if it gets to 30c ? How do you gauge this number with fundamentals, as place to exit ?
Do you accept that current negative sentiment makes chance of further fall, easier than chance of a 50% rise ?
How much does this factor into your risk calculations ?

Re Short sellers. If this trade does work out and you buy 20c sell 30c, it will primarily be thanks to the short sellers. They stimulate price to the upside because they have an easier decision to buy quickly when a stock first shows signs of recovery.

Hope this post comes across as, for educational purposes only, definitely not trying to tell you how to do it.
Cheers, M
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 5 2014, 10:21 PM


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I'm wondering if a little better understanding might foster less conflict in future, through a little more mutual respect.
Tall order, but will cause no harm as long as the discussion does not sink into personal abuse ....fingers crossed
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 5 2014, 05:50 PM


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Mookie.
Thanks for such detailed reply (hope you type faster than I am capable of)

Your last para highlights my questions surrounding funda's trading. You've identified reasons (from all info available to you) why price should be rising not falling, yet the market is
appearing to be ignoring these facts.
The question then arises, do you have all necessary info ? My feeling is, it's highly unlikely anyone has
Have you assessed the info incorrectly ? Considering the market is not behaving as you would expect .
At what point does the fundamental method signal an opportunity to enter a trade ?

Seems to me, a very difficult way to invest. You can not know what you dont know about the relevant facts if any, yet you have to at some point make a decision to enter a position using logic. In my experience, logic plays very little part in how the markets react.

Can you say, when you would buy in future and why ? if nothing significant changed with the info you currently have at hand.

Thanks, Mista (Do appreciate the time you took with previous reply)

If you dont want to answer, no problem. I understand that some things come back to bite around here

  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 5 2014, 02:24 PM


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ok,
80c to 20c in a year,
earnings 12c
PE <2x
Assets 27c

So, its trading at discount to assets, no goodwill , therefore a buy ?
but Why did it trade @ 80c + just 12mths ago. How do I figure why it has dropped 75%.
How do I remotely tell if my inve$tment will not halve again if I buy it ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 5 2014, 12:10 PM


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Posts: 1,916

it wasn't

I'm trying to understand the other side of the arguement.
Rarely is there opportunity to take stock of actual values and at time of sale, thats when the BS stops in everything I've experienced outside of the stockmarket world.
Dont understand how an individual can possibly know enough to make an informed fundamentals decision. People who are paid to do it seem to be wrong, almost 100% of the time.
Really can not see how it can be done logically
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 5 2014, 12:09 PM


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double post
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 5 2014, 10:05 AM


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Bailed long
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 5 2014, 10:01 AM


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A misinformed view.

When I look at the long term charts, STO is now living in a new reality, range $6 to $9 with say 2% outliers above/below the range.

not trading it, purely bored opinion
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 4 2014, 10:53 PM


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Was trying to work out this fundamental caper but I dont get it.

All the times when CVN was like 50c, 40c ,30c, 20c, it was always said the stock was fundamentally good value.
But now, when the assets of that time are sold, they realized 6cper share.
Seems to me, when all the previous assets are cleared off the books, it's an ideal time to assess how close to accurate the expert valuations were.
If a Co is "worth" 10 times it's assets due to future potential earnings ie: CVN trading at 5c and the assets later sell for 6c/share
Why were the assets sold so cheap with zero value for the potential earnings ?
or, if thats all you should expect, why did it trade at up to 80c and people were claiming it always was cheap/value worth buying etc ?

I cant make head nor tail of fundamentals, not logical imho
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 4 2014, 08:58 PM


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Was it TAP ? I was sure you were talking big cash reserves for some oiler back in the MDS forum days
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 4 2014, 08:27 PM


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Flower,
Didn't CVN have $250m in cash, a couple of years back ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 4 2014, 03:52 PM


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QUOTE
Posted: Dec 2 2014, 08:44 AM
Report Post Quote Post


Posts: 1,721
Thanks: 627


My last couple of posts here on CVN thread were meant as polite warning of what I thought was a deteriorating sentiment in CVN's market. Continuing along that vein,

If price does not immediately rebound and hold above the 15.5c level, the overall market for CVN is now intent on ignoring totally the previous good news which lifted the price from 8c on one day to a low of 15.5c the next.
If the market is saying it's now going to ignore the past news, then 8c/9c is very likely to be visited again in the next couple of weeks/months.
The 15.5c level has become a bit of a line in the sand as far as sentiment goes.


CVN has rejected the 15.5c level with news. Price has not regained the ground it was holding week before last. So far has created an inside candle, equals negative sentiment unresolved so far.
I think it's far to say, until CVN can close a day above the high from last week (20.5c), there exists a higher probability of another re-test of the lower support (13c/15c )
I noted today, when price attempted to rise again from the days low, sellers appeared selling into the 18c bids.
I continue to stand aside having missed the impulsive rise today, will wait for the news dust to settle and see where real support is at
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 4 2014, 12:28 PM


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Wren,
Thanks for mentioning, chart had dropped from view since last wk, also long 110
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 4 2014, 11:18 AM


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Very entertaining stock is CVN, like the Salvo's, just keeps giving
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 3 2014, 09:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

Sorry, deleted.
bad manners on my part
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 3 2014, 06:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

Would love a dollar for every time you have reflected positively on CVN over the last 5years, yet the price dropped. A tidy $um would be had, indeed.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 3 2014, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

I'm going to stick my neck out here and happy to be chopped when I'm wrong.

I reckon the 1.3million shares which sold down yesterday around 3.20pm, was by an insider who expects price to drop after this news. Only a guess due to the timing of the sell when the market was starting to recover. It made no sense to sell at that moment, unless you knew something was about to become known which might send price lower.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 2 2014, 09:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

Closed a short on this yesterday because I expected a market bounce and I wasnt going t be around to watch the trade.
Think there is plenty of downside left in this stock to around the 9c level before it goes to sleep, volatility wise.
  Forum: By Share Code

mistagear
Posted on: Dec 2 2014, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,916

Well, it reversed the negative move today which looked rather positive, only to have someone enter the sell today at 3.20pm EDSTwith another vote of no confidence, of 1million shares.
I think price might now hold around this level, maybe rise 1c more but eventually run out of buyers willing to step up. That should lead to further declines into the 10/11c support.
I'm not a buyer of this stock at present
  Forum: By Share Code

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