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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
post Posted: Today, 01:59 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Today, 11:29 AM

Hey EB Hope you are well... A bit of a range on 200... near 4H support.I think you meant 6775 sup. Big red candle this morning. Bounce back to top of range or break below.
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early birds
post Posted: Today, 11:29 AM
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asx200 support level 6675 have been hit now , a stoploss for short term long position should be out now [ i'm out]

early birds
post Posted: Today, 08:37 AM
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Depending on where we look across the market landscape, well come up with a very different conclusion. Is it a bubble or a tame uptrend?
------- so true!!

Volume levels in Calls, Puts and equities are at, or near, records, suggesting emotion is high and not sustainable. We take a look at six of these charts below.

While theres been a true mania in many areas, the SPX, itself, is behaving the CALMEST it has in over a year. We see this via the minimal drawdowns over the last few weeks and as the index has continued to trade within that upward sloping channel.

Given whats occurred since last March, the number of +/-1% moves over a rolling 12-month period is close to extreme levels (going back over 50 years). When this number begins to drop, it tends to CONTINUE to drop. And a small number of big moves is a typical characteristic of long-term uptrends.

Similarly, since the Great Financial Crisis, the SPXs best and least volatile uptrends occurred after breaking out to new highs (2013 and 2017).

they still think of short term pull back, and longer term up trend for SPX !! seems we need do more studies!! unsure.gif

asx200, still performed well. expecting it to go higher from here for the near term!! imho though!!

early birds
post Posted: Jan 25 2021, 08:27 AM
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While the SPX has been making intermittent new highs over the last 10 weeks, the breakouts have not incited huge immediate follow through moves. In fact, buying dips within this channel has been a much better approach vs the buying the breakout near the upper threshold.

In other words, its been an identifiable ebb and flow for quite some time.

Thus, with the SPX ending last night near that same upper line again, it makes sense to see some profit taking over the near term. The key will be seeing when and where the next decline takes us. A drop to the 3,750 area would keep the uptrend intact.

Minimal drawdowns

Said profit taking has resulted in minimal drawdowns, with none being greater than 3% since the quick November 9th November 10th pullback.

Again, weve seen periods like this last MUCH longer than a few weeks in the recent past: The SPX went 14 months without a drawdown of more than 3.5% from December 2016 through January 2018 the longest such streak ever.

While we dont expect that record to be broken, we need to recognize this behavior for as long as it lasts.

Oscillating RSI

The small drawdowns have kept the SPXs 14-Day RSI within a tight range between 55 and 70. Not surprisingly, those highs have coincided with the SPX tagging the top of the above channel. And vice versa.

Quite simply, this is the exact type of momentum behavior that we want to see in an uptrend with the indicator oscillating between the mid point and overbought territory.

Indeed, it cant persist like this for an extended period of time, and if and when it changes, it would suggest that the market character is changing, too.


so looking for short term pull back and then long term gain for SPX?? unsure.gif

ASX200 -STILL looking for short term up unless that 6675ish can't hold it!! imho

early birds
post Posted: Jan 22 2021, 07:55 AM
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SPX did holding on 3850ish as Daq went into all time high [ pumped up by apple]
so market still bullish after US new administration got into white house uneventfully .
keep eye on 3888ish for short term, longer term [few months time] 3950ish......imho

asx200, as upside space has been opened up yesterday , expecting it will going up [ not sure it is grinding up or jump up] for a while. unless it dip back below the breakout point [6775ish]

post Posted: Jan 21 2021, 09:19 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 21 2021, 07:47 AM

can't keep a good market down. ASX200 putting in another solid day.

"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

early birds
post Posted: Jan 21 2021, 07:47 AM
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The Bottom Line:
Earnings season is just beginning, as is a new administration, thus, fresh rhetoric and data points will be upon us soon enough. This being case, the odds suggest that volatility could turn perky again relatively soon.

Thus, if and when the SPX shakes loose from its two-month, tight, upward trading channel, its worth reviewing the biggest of the bullish patterns weve been tracking.

The SPXs 4,270 price target was derived from the breakout way back in July, as the index punched through 3,230. With the SPX now sitting 15% above that point, the big cushion allows for a good deal of wiggle room. The key will be how the index deals with the next gut check whenever and wherever that occurs.

The NDX continues to extend from its own late November breakout point. And while the index has underperformed the high-flying small caps, its pattern certainly cant be labeled as bearish. The NDX/IWM ratio is nearing a weekly oversold condition for the first time since late 2016.

The Semis SMH ETF outperformance vs. the XLK has been clear for some time now, as well. As such, the weekly relative RSI is near 79, which is among the highest in history.


SPX future hit 3850 [ short term upside target] as i'm typing , , now this study shows 4270 as the big target for the upside. but it is weekly chart, i'm not show it can reach it at 2021.
everything is possible esp for the upside these days!! blink.gif

asx200.................. as TA point out if it over come 6775 then it will open up big space of upside. from asx200 future ...seems it did just that [asx200 future is at 6815ish as i'm typing]

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early birds
post Posted: Jan 20 2021, 08:23 AM
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With the SPX still close to its highs, last weeks price action hardly was damaging. All it did was put the index back near the middle of its two-month upward sloping trading channel.

The SPXs Breadth only was slightly negative last week, which allowed the SPXs Cumulative Adv-Dec Line to stay close to its highs. While countless other indicators suggest the market is overheated, the A-D line has been the most trustworthy of which to follow since last spring.

SPX closed up last session , looks it gonna try that 3850 again . sorta think it will roll over at 3800-------it might turn out to be "wishful thinking" like i did many times before!! weirdsmiley.gif

for asx200 it showing supper bullish sign , if it can over come 6775 within two session then it open big upside space . shorts beware that level!!
i'm still long those defensive high yields names.

post Posted: Jan 19 2021, 07:57 AM
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Well, looks like the tops in.
Dow bin struggling to make headway for aw hile now, dropped a bit last night.
The next big move is down.

sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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early birds
post Posted: Jan 15 2021, 08:10 AM
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Warning signs do persist:

One that's been with us for a while is the historically low equity put-call ratio. Many have pointed this out; let's be honest, it's hard to miss. Even smoothing it out via a short-term moving average can't hide how depressed the read on options activity has been since last June.

It made a new low in December, but that has yet to matter. In fact, the bounce from that point created a lower high. This, too, won't last... but that has been true seven for months now, and it has yet to change.

While we rely on the SPX's Cumulative-Advance Line for a tell on Breadth, we should keep tabs on the number of stocks making new 52 Week Highs, as well. Not surprisingly, the number has been moving higher as the SPX has gained ground.

as bullish as SPX goes, bit of cautious here. if 3850 been hit and SPX still point to the upside, then next upside target will be at 3890ish, that is far i can see.

asx200 will follow US market higher at this stage!! target upside would be at 6850ish...imho think of banks [or those of high yields ] will do better in short term!!


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