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DCN, DACIAN GOLD LIMITED
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post Posted: Jan 8 2021, 04:48 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 8 2021, 03:01 PM

Mick - it's a 100k oz pa producer with a market cap of just on $300m (with both its debt and hedging issues getting sorted). With NTM tagged on to it, it's life of mine and resources will also look better. Put like that it doesn't look too toppy to me.

When all the ex-NTM holders join the DCN registry there will be lots of dilution and profit-taking so maybe by the end of February there could be some settling of contents. When the deal was announced the share registry was going to be one third ex-NTM and two thirds current DCN but that was when Dacian's market cap was slightly under $200m. Anyway I reckon the combined DCN-NTM will look far more robust than Dacian without the underground mines.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 8 2021, 03:01 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 5 2021, 07:55 AM

DCN hit 55, up 3% when all my other goldies down.
Somebody wants a piece of the action, RSI booming up on the chart.
Question is, how far will it go before it gets chomped like the other gold stocks??
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 5 2021, 07:55 AM
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DCN put out another solid quarterly.
Still on track for the top end of the yearly production guidance.
Would be good for a change to see this company surprise on the upside rather than the downside as has been the case for a the past two years.
Hedge book now down to half a years production, debt reducing so that the total cash and gold on hand would pay it down.
Things should look a little brighter in a years time, assuming the gold price keeps higher (or even better if it goes higher!).
Regret that SP did not get back to my price of 30 cents, has now gone nearly 50% higher than that buy in price, but that's the way things go sometimes.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Nov 16 2020, 08:25 AM
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Well, looks like Leigh Junk has managed to make the dCN company bigger by merging with NM.
Have not looked at NTM as a source of trading/investment, so know nothing about them.
RMS it seems did not see enuff value on either co for a takeover.
Never got my sub 30 investment, so have no skin in the game.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 8 2020, 10:29 AM
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DCN struggling for traction.
Buyers have deserted it.
Maintaining my disciplined approach and waiting for sub 30.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 26 2020, 10:42 AM
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DCN down to 33.
If it gets to 30 I will buy in again.
It does have a defined production path for next three years.
Solid , but not spectacular.
They have almost enough cash on hand to pay off all debt, and are rapidly reducing their ridiculous hedge book, with it gone by the end of this Fin Year.
So, despite my previous aversion, I am going to go back in at 30 or uder.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 31 2020, 09:19 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jul 26 2020, 02:29 PM

Can't argue with your financial logic.
But after taking such a bath on this one, I am not yet mentally ready to embrace it again.
perhaps if RMS did pick it up, the decision would be taken out of my hands.
Mick



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post Posted: Jul 26 2020, 02:29 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jul 13 2020, 07:52 PM

Dacian's market cap is now under $190m and their cash and gold effectively cover their debt so it also has an enterprise value of about $190m. They do have a hedge at about A$1,775 per ounce on about 85k ounces up to the end of June 2021.

For that money they have a new near fully commissioned processing plant with a capacity of 2.5mtpa, a production schedule of just over 110k ounces pa for the next three fiscal years from mostly open pit operations around Jupiter, a soon-to-be mothballed underground mine at Westralia with a reserve of 195k ounces (not included in the current mine plan) and five completed declines, a complete working village and 608 sqk's of greenstone in the Yilgarn Crator (in the same vicinity as Granny Smith and Sunrise Dam).

I reckon the replacement value of the physical infrastructure would be close to $190m. So at this price you are getting 3 years production at 110k oz effectively for free (that's a dumb way of phrasing it but hopefully it makes my point). Who knows if and for how long the gold price holds up but currently it is over A$2,600 per ounce. Dacian has been indicating its AISC is upwards of A$1,600 per ounce. So 330k ounces x ($2,600 - $1,600) = $330,000,000.


My back-of-the-beer coaster analysis suggests Dacian is currently good value. I also think that it would be a good pick up for Ramelius at a 50% premium to current market price.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 
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post Posted: Jul 13 2020, 07:52 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jul 13 2020, 10:13 AM

I dunno Mick - just over $220m market cap for a $100kozpa processing centre looks almost enticing to me. Their debt is now pretty much manageable. There are a number of WA gold explorers with higher market caps than Dacian (and I've come to hate development risk - the number of firms that I've followed that have failed to successfully transition from developer to producer has put me off companies that are attempting it - everything takes too long and so much can and does go wrong).

Mark Z of Ramelius said at a presentation recently that they were looking for a third processing centre that was a step up in quality in terms of quality of operation, life of mine and market perception. Dacian does not tick any of those boxes but I reckon their Mt Magnet mine manager and her team could work wonders with Dacian's mines. The way that Mark Z and the on-ground team has steadily unpicked the riches at Mt Magnet has been a company maker.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 13 2020, 10:13 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 16 2020, 03:50 PM

DCN hit a low today after another downgrade.
Lots of people were hoping the new Boss Leigh Junk (what a moniker!) could turn things around. But they go from bad to worse.
This is now in Dog status.
Coslty investment for me and glad I took my losses and ran away.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


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