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The future of airlines
nipper
post Posted: Sep 18 2020, 07:23 PM
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A key trend is the dramatic reduction of air cargo capacity as a result of the significant loss of commercial airline capacity. Current estimates indicate that freighter capacity now accounts for 66% of total air capacity on the Transatlantic lane; 83% on the Trans Pacific; and 80% on the Europe to Asia lane. This compares to pre COVID freighter capacity of 33% for Transatlantic; 59% for Trans-Pacific and 50% for Europe to Asia.


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Pre COVID, we projected that the US domestic market would hit 100 million packages per day by calendar year 2026. We now project that the US domestic parcel market will hit this mark by calendar year 2023, pulling volume projections forward by three years from the previous expectations. E-commerce fuelled substantially by this pandemic is driving the extraordinary growth

Brie Carere, Chief Marketing Officer, FedEx Corporation



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
balance
post Posted: Sep 6 2020, 11:14 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 5 2020, 07:38 PM

It is odd that a move back towards reciprocating engines of any fuel type would seem at odds with the amazing development of hi bypass jet engines since WW2. Engines that suck, squeeze, bang and blow (yes it is a crude golden oldie) just cannot match gas turbines.

The old Allison 250 for example and its many variants, produce > 230kw from an engine weighing less than 70kg.
2 of those would produce more power then its 12 cylinder diesel and i suspect weigh in considerably less.
The Allison has been around since the 60s and no doubt more efficient power plants have been produced since.
Unless they have a magic light weight diesel design I just cant see it.
Having the diesel hidden in the fuselage would reduce drag but the same goes for internally mounted gas turbines.




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 5 2020, 07:38 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 30 2020, 08:52 AM

This design looks suspiciously like the Learfan, designed by the Legendary Bill Lear of Learjet fame, unfortunately he died before it went into production.
It was also going to revolutionise air travel, but I doubt too many people have even heard of it, much less know any of its performance figures.
One of the problems is that so much of what has been written is just sales talk.
As ana example, they suggest that the design has a 59% reduction in drag. But compared to what? A Tiger moth? A Brick?
And even if this reduction in drag was comparable to say an Airbus A320, the claim that there is a 5 -7 times reduction in fuel consumption just doesn't equate.
The 12 cylinder diesel is also a bit of a worry.
Diesel engines, because of their high compression, need to be extremely strong , which rather negates the use of lightweight alloys.
TDM, Thielart and a few others have been trying to develop diesel engines with largely uneconomic results.
It may well revolutionise air travel, unfortunately history and the odds are running strongly against it.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Aug 30 2020, 08:52 AM
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I am wondering if this will take the transport industry by storm. It is an interesting advance.

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Private plane travel could be coming to the masses. A US company has unveiled a futuristic aircraft billed as an alternative to executive jets which can be hired for the price of an airline ticket. Developed in secret for a decade, the bullet-shaped plane, the Celera 500L, has intrigued the aviation world since it was spotted at Victorville in the Mojave high desert in 2017. Otto Aviation unveiled its creation during the week, saying the revolutionary plane had made 31 test flights since November and proved itself to be "the most fuel-efficient, commercially viable aircraft in existence".


The makers claim performance that seems incredible by conventional standards. Driven by a 12-cylinder diesel engine that turns a "pusher" propeller on its tail, the plane is said to fly at 450mph (724km/h), the speed of light jets, with operating costs of 250 ($453) an hour, six times lower than similar-sized business jets. Fuel consumption at 18 to 25 miles (29km to 40km) a gallon (about 3.8 litres) is an eighth of that of a small jet. The wide bullet shape of the six-passenger, fixed-wing aircraft promotes laminar flow, meaning that the oncoming air passes around its fuselage and wings smoothly without the turbulence that causes drag in more conventional craft. Bill Otto, a veteran aerospace scientist who founded the company, said the Celera was due to enter service in 2023. It was the ideal plane for the post-coronavirus world, he said. It would serve as a long-distance air taxi for families or small groups with seats costing no more per person than a commercial flight. "Of course, we didn't anticipate Covid-19 but there are enhanced market opportunities in being able to afford to fly with only those you choose to," he told CNN. Unlike the slow, short-range drone-style air taxis under development, the Celera will have a relatively long range and will be able to fly non-stop anywhere in America, for example, its makers claim. "Our goal was to create a private aircraft that would allow for direct flights between any city pair in the US at speeds and cost comparable to commercial air travel," Mr Otto said. While other plane-makers are racing to build electric or hybrid aircraft, the Celera is betting on internal combustion. Its German-made Red Aircraft A03 powerplant can burn jet fuel or bio-diesel, producing more than 550hp. The company is planning a second model, twice the size of its 500, which may use a hybrid electric and internal combustion engine.
The Times



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Aug 21 2020, 06:37 PM
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Australia has a new golden triangle for aviation, with Brisbane to Cairns & Townsville now seeing more flights and passengers than Sydney.. Melbourne .. Brisbane.

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce revealed on Thursday that Brisbane to Cairns had become the airlines best performing route in the COVID crisis, with demand for flights exceeding that before the pandemic.

In the space of a few weeks, Qantas has increased services from 22 return flights a week, to 53 in response to demand, with the potential for more when state border restrictions are eased.

Brisbane-Townsville is the second most popular route nationwide with 44 return services a week across three airlines, and Brisbane-Mackay third, aided by the ongoing demand from the resources sector.

In contrast Sydney Melbourne Brisbane are each seeing just a couple of return flights a day between those cities, due to border restrictions limiting travel to essential workers or returning residents.

Its a state of affairs Cairns Airport chief executive Norris Carter is well aware of, with ten flights a day from Brisbane delivering around 1500 people to the far north Queensland city.
QUOTE
Pre COVID, Brisbane to Cairns was the countrys 11th more popular route, now its the first, Mr Carter said. It means the airport is operating at about 25 per cent of pre COVID passengers across all the routes so we have still got some tourist activity happening.

A number of hotels in the city remained closed and a lot of businesses were hamstrung until international borders reopened, such was the reliance on foreign visitors.

In addition to the Brisbane to Cairns flights, the city was also seeing regular flights to Adelaide and Darwin, and looking forward to recommencement of Gold Coast services from September 1.

Townsville has also seen some recovery in recent months, with 58,490 passengers in July. more than the previous three months combined.

Owner Queensland Airports Limited which also operates Gold Coast, Mount Isa and Longreach Airports, was encouraged by the improvement.

Mr Joyce also highlighted the popularity of Perth-Broome flights, which the West Australian tourism spot welcomed.

Broome Chamber of Commerce president Peter Taylor said a deal by the state government with Qantas had delivered additional flights at cost effective rates, which had been hugely successful in getting tourists into Broome.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 18 2020, 12:26 PM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ Jul 18 2020, 12:12 PM

I read that Ballina* airport was one of the busiest in Australia in June. Flights from sthn states including direct from Canberra. Short runway so mainly prop jets. Rex, Qantas Link, Jetstar, AeroPelican and even Virgin flying to it; now Qld is open, and Melbourne in lockdown, the demand has dropped away.

*Now called Ballina Byron Gateway Airport



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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alonso
post Posted: Jul 18 2020, 12:12 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 18 2020, 12:04 PM

Would be interesting to see what the numbers were for REX.



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nipper
post Posted: Jul 18 2020, 12:04 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 18 2020, 11:50 AM

And then there is Domestic aviation

Network reviews, which consider how many flights are on offer on each route, typically happen seasonally but are now scheduled for every week. Virgin Chief Commercial Officer John MacCleod says it is uncharted territory for the entire industry at the moment.

You plan the capacity; you implement it; you check to see how it is filling up and how the bookings are coming in, and the yield is. If you need adjustments, you act, MacCleod says. Despite the more regular reviews, MacCleod admits he did not anticipate the situation in Victoria. The demand basically disappeared overnight, he says.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce predicted there would be no substantial return to international flying until July next year at the earliest, due to strict border control measures to stop the virus. The domestic boss, Andrew David, whose division accounted for more than half of Qantas overall earnings last financial year, will now be responsible for propping up the company even further while the crisis plays out.

As recently as late June, the domestic division had reaffirmed its aim to return to flying at 40 per cent of its pre pandemic capacity by July. He remains sure there is pent-up demand of which he can take advantage but admits that ambitious goal is in tatters.

We are seeing an increase in intrastate travel, and wherever states are removing border restrictions, we are seeing an increase in interstate travel, David says. We had planned to get to 40 per cent of pre-COVID domestic capacity in July, but we won't get there this month. Unfortunately, that means that there will be less of our people stood up to come back to work.


And, if Virgin and Qantas are to ramp up their flying activity as expected, both will be hoping infections do not spike across other parts of the nation.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Jul 18 2020, 11:50 AM
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On 10 July, PM Scott Morrison said Perth would receive only 525 overseas passengers per week and Brisbane 500, with a maximum of 30 people on one plane. Arrivals at Sydney at that stage were capped at 450 per day with no more than 50 passengers on a single aircraft.

Only 30 passengers will be permitted per flight into Sydney International Airport from Monday, causing Singapore Airlines to suspend online sales on flights already at the cap, while a one-way Qatar Airways business class fare from Doha to Sydney now costs $12,000. The new cap means only 350 passengers a day will pass through the airport.

For more than a week, Melbourne has not accepted international travellers as Victoria deals with its second coronavirus outbreak.

The limits at Brisbane and Perth will remain the same.

SIA is now flying only two aircraft into Australia: the A350(900) with 253 seats and the 787(10) with 337 seats. While it is hardly profitable to fly with only 30 passengers on board, a spokesperson said freight and cargo helped make the flights viable.

For now, the new cap will last until 08 August.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Mar 3 2020, 05:44 PM
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International airlines are reporting “no shows” by 50 per cent of passengers as the coronavirus crisis deepens.

The International Air Transport Association has revealed the extent of the impact on member airlines, with one reporting a 108 per cent fall in bookings to Italy, as demand collapses to zero and refunds grow.

Another carrier had experienced a 26 per cent reduction across their entire operation compared to last year, people cancel bookings as far in advance as October.

In response to the crisis, IATA has called for aviation regulators to suspend rules governing airport slots immediately, until the end of the 2020 season.
good luck with that



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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