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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 09:13 AM


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Posts: 204

In my experience - over 10+ years in CUV and scouring this board periodically - Endymion has been one of the more intelligent posters on this website. And there is no harm in raising a hypothesis. I hope CUV management have at least tested the theory, even if they have dismissed it.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 22 2020, 10:31 PM


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Posts: 204

Endymion - why don't you write to the company and ask them for their view?
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 09:50 AM


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the price is only holding because there was a wall of buying demand at $15. That is being eaten through very quickly, and then there's not much stopping it from heading further south
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 09:30 AM


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Posts: 204

I've not been at all happy with the company's sham response on the incentives and I would question the governance.
However what I personally don't question is PW's competence and motivation. I think if he made this decision, it is with good reason.
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 06:24 AM


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Posts: 204

There is a performance criteria in the awarding of the performance rights linked to the share price. That's why they are doing this. Have the starting position really low to maximise the chances of exercise. I don't think it is the extra year they are after (although it certainly helps). Its the starting share price that is most important.
The Board was meant to ratify the performance package "as soon as practicable after the meeting". Hence, the whole thing shows a distinct lack of corporate governance, and the fact that the Company and Board is now very much under the control of PW.
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 05:12 PM


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Posts: 204

I think you are kind saying it’s mismanagement. It is a deliberate manipulation in my mind in reaction to the falling share price and perhaps a revised view on timetable. They will change the rules to ensure the shares/options are hit and worth a fortune.
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 04:58 PM


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Posts: 204

It should be reported to ASIC. This company has consistently in the past restructured incentives to manufacture the outcome that Wolgen demands. It’s a boys club (Wolgen and his chairman bestie) and a corrupt autocracy.
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 01:45 PM


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Posts: 204

I think that's exactly what's going on. It is appalling.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 26 2019, 09:07 AM


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Posts: 204

Yes, I think it is more than a coincidence that CUV are now embarking on TGA approval
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 13 2019, 01:14 PM


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Posts: 204

they can't really do this in Australia. Minority shareholders are afforded pretty decent rights through independent Directors and exclusive minority shareholder voting for transactions / events that disproportionately benefit the majority shareholder.
I'm not worried about being squeezed out.
Main benefit for a bidder is put their foot on the company now and over time hope they can entice minority shareholders to sell into revised offers.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 13 2019, 11:15 AM


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Posts: 204

Yes. PE is a multiple of Net Profit after Tax.
So you need to deduct expenses (cost of goods, admin, selling etc...) and then tax profit to arrive at NPAT. Multiply this by your PE.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 08:58 PM


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Posts: 204

This company has such a large portion of its register held by insiders / management / long termers, there is no opportunity for a bidder to get 100% of the company without Board approval.
So the best a bidder could do is put down an unconditional offer in the market, and soak up as many shares as possible. Without Board approval, a bidder offering a significant premium could get to 50% or perhaps more, but the company would remain independently run, with an independent board and would maintain its listing.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 03:26 PM


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Posts: 204

As a person who makes a living in the M&A space, I agree with this post. Most of those who attempt M&A stuff it up. Those that don't are most often professional asset acquirers (like PE).
I agree that CUV should have a very very narrow focus for M&A, and buy businesses that provide instant and discernible value to Scenesse. This would most likely be through enhanced distribution. I could be wrong, but I think they will approach it this way. They have too much organic opportunity to waste time with inorganic M&A unless its compelling.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 04:13 AM


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Posts: 204

I've been in since 2002 as well. Those early years were a slog. I wonder where InTheGroove is these days
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 08:01 PM


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Posts: 204

Its not clear that investors are betting millions against the company.
Despite tax offices trying to crack down on it, short sales are still used for hedging.
We are looking at a company that has appreciated strongly to now and about to reach a fork in the road. I would love to hedge my position without crystalising a gain.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 02:50 PM


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Posts: 204

While we never take our competition for granted, I reckon our boys with the cash resources flowing through from our lead drug put us in a pretty good position to eclipse Palatin.
Palatin market cap is sub US$200m. It would need to raise significant cash to fund the R&D.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 10 2019, 09:51 PM


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Posts: 204

I actually wonder whether that makes sense. I don't know enough to have a complete view, but both companies appear to be targeting significant further research on the same family of peptides, perhaps it makes sense to combine rather than duplicate efforts.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 12:07 PM


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Posts: 204

Are you kidding! Men the world over are rejoicing
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 6 2019, 12:06 PM


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Posts: 204

There is a lot of greed emerging on this board in my opinion.
The current share price is $31. $31!!!! I think when the share price was $2, this would have been a dream outcome.
Now the share price is $31, it seems like a few are lamenting that its not higher.
Law of insatiability right before our eyes.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 30 2019, 05:34 PM


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Posts: 204

I reckon its probably not a bad strategy to hedge the position you have. Our gains are obviously now too big to just let evaporate in the event of a negative filing.
If there is a positive FDA outcome, I think there will be a muted share price impact in the days / weeks post given much of this will already be embedded.
Conversely, if there is a negative outcome, the impact to the share price will be huge.
A hedge will lock in today's price. You will lose the benefit of what is likely a muted upside. But will protect against what is a substantial downside.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 30 2019, 05:26 PM


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Posts: 204

I reckon some of the shorts may be investors hedging long positions. If you short-sell your current holding, you lock in the current share price no matter what the outcome, without triggering the capital gains tax from selling out today.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 16 2019, 02:45 PM


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Posts: 204

through $30. Big milestone for the company and shareholders
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Klomp
Posted on: May 16 2019, 07:33 AM


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Posts: 204

I'm interested to know how investors on this forum see value for CUV. We are close to $30 / share which is obviously a whopping multiple on current earnings.

My take:
Annual EPS is circa low 20c at the moment on early stage European approval. We expect this to grow as reimbursement matures.
If US gets approval, we can double EPS.
Perhaps when EPP is mature across Europe and the US, it might get to $1 EPS. On its own, with no other indications, EPP might justify a share price on its own of $20 / share.

Then we have upside for new indications and a broadening of its use. This is monumentally difficult to value at this stage. I'd love to hear if anybody has a decent logical way of assessing the value of this.

Klomp
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 27 2019, 07:13 AM


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Posts: 204

The shorters are taking the view that the price has run up too far for unsustainable reasons. clearly the impact of index inclusion (and potential further index inclusion) has generated temporary artificial demand.
The main question I guess is what we all believe the fundamental value of the business is - with and without FDA approval. Perhaps the shorters think that probability weighting for FDA outcome and then reimbursement outcomes means it will drop.
I am reasonably optimistic about FDA approval. I'm personally cautious about what it might be worth over the next 6 or so months. Longer term if the approvals keep coming and use broadens, I think the share price will be healthy. I know one of Australia's largest pharmas have for a long time been keeping a close watching brief on CUV. One of the senior execs who is a friend of mine said the share price was ridiculous. I don't know what maths they've done, but there is a certainly a view (and not necessarily an uneducated one) that CUV is flying a bit high at the moment.
Part of the problem is the company haven't embraced sell side analysts. Normally analysts are good at digesting managements own view on expectations and potential and then convey it as their own. There are no company supported analyst reports out there right now.
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 22 2019, 07:53 AM


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Posts: 204

I'm not sure I would be too worried about Fidelity, if indeed they are selling.
They have been selling for a long time. They ceased being a substantial shareholder a long time ago. They are Lagoda both started selling as the shareprice started rising from $10.
Clinuvel is a small investment in the context of these funds, so they are less likely to want to ride this to the end like most of us.
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 7 2019, 06:32 AM


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Posts: 204

I don't think the depreciating AUD should have any impact on the USD price (at least if the market was efficient). The revenues of the company are in Euro. And soon to be Euro and USD. What's relevant for the AUD price is the AUD / Euro exchange rate. What's relevant for the ADR is the Euro / USD exchange. If the Aussie dollar depreciates and nothing else changes, you should probably find the AUD price goes up, but the ADR price stays still.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 29 2018, 05:09 PM


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Posts: 204

If they have spare cash, I would prefer to see a share buyback. It distributes the same amount of money to shareholders, but more tax effectively (for most of us) and increases EPS going forward. Divs are very inefficient form of capital return.
Still, I never thought I'd see this day. Big milestone for the company
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 10:37 AM


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Posts: 204

I would ignore him. Just another idiot on this board (there are many).
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 22 2018, 01:35 PM


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Posts: 204

Hopefully this is a timezone issue. ie perhaps they submitted Thursday cob in the US, and need to get a confirmation on Friday. I don't know enough about the FDA process. I'm just trying to make myself feel better about htis
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 22 2018, 01:35 PM


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Posts: 204

Hopefully this is a timezone issue. ie perhaps they submitted Thursday cob in the US, and need to get a confirmation on Friday. I don't know enough about the FDA process. I'm just trying to make myself feel better about htis
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 30 2018, 09:12 AM


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Posts: 204

This is intriguing if nothing else. I don't think this management team will repeat the mistakes of the past regime (when they investing in an acne cream from memory).
I presume that this is an internally generated product since there has been no announcement about any acquisition of business or rights. Which limits the range of outcomes to those either
directly or closely related to afamelanotide and / or its key target markets.

Looking forward to this one.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jan 31 2017, 08:27 AM


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Posts: 204

Clinuvel is cash positive!!! Never thought I would live to see the day. Real milestone for the company. I've been sitting with this company for 15 years!
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Klomp
Posted on: Dec 13 2016, 12:40 PM


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Posts: 204

Not a good look at all.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 28 2015, 01:37 AM


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Posts: 204

For those that don't like the current state of affairs, your only recourse is to sell your shareholding.
I have no idea whether PW has underperformed or overperformed relative to an alternative management team. We can never tell. I know its not easy to bring a drug to market.
My concern is that the Board's hastily awarded 10% of our company to the PW at the last Board meeting indicates a couple of things:
1. Much of the intellectual capital of our business (whether its the technology, or relationships) is sitting with PW, or
2. The Board has the perception that 1 is true, even if it is not

Íf 1 is true, then it will become increasingly so. This is the risk of investing in a small company. Individuals become so central that the company starts to behave more like a private company. This is the situation we are in now. He might only have 10% or so of the company, but in essence it is his company and if we don't like it, then we should sell.


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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 23 2015, 07:11 AM


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Posts: 204

I couldn't disagree more with recent posts.

Lachlan is 100% correct. It is fine for us investors read the opinions of patients when it is in the public domain. However investors should not be pursuing patients to obtain the information. That's just wrong and inappropriate.

Further - as much I would love to know more about what is going on, in some cases patients may have access to information that has not been publicly disclosed, and they should be bound by confidentiality. They shouldn't be saying things beyond what they have agreed with the company - and this should be a condition of their participation. Information needs to be distributed in a fair and equitable manner. I'm sure many on this forum would be upset if they learnt they were buying shares from sellers who knew current trial results were poor or failing.




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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 14 2014, 07:52 PM


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Posts: 204

My concern is not the quantum, its the timing and triggers. i would love Dr Wolgen to get obscenely wealthy from Clinuvel. However a $10m+ bonus with in essence no performance conditions, and payable immediately, does nothing to ensure that he remains hungry and committed. If they were deferred or subject to a future vesting date conditional upon him remaining employed then I would be satisfied.
The problem with small companies is that power can become concentrated in the hands of a few (or one). It is probably one of the great risks of the company going forward. I hope the Directors are strong enough to understand the risk and manage it before CUV becomes Nth Korea.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 12 2014, 03:13 PM


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Posts: 204

Under the notice of meeting, close to 10% of the company is being issued to Directors almost immediatey carrying conditions that will be satisfied with almost absolute certainty. I've never seen anything like it. Normally there will be vesting conditions over a number of years to keep the key individuals locked in and incentivised.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 6 2014, 03:35 AM


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Posts: 204

PortugueseMan - I don't disagree with most of what you say...although you are a bit trigger happy on the M word (Manipulation). People can express ideas without this always being the case. The framework is without bias while the assumptions are just that - assumptions.... Based on what the company has previously disclosed. The only thing for certain is they won't be right!. However - based on mathematics - the $10 - $15 is accurate if the assumptions hold.

I think you might be disregarding Clinuvel's operating leverage. By virtue of the reimbursement price its margins are huge. If we take your figure of $30m - the majority of this should fall to net profit. So even with $30m revenue - which doesn't sound dramatically high - and using some conservative assumptions around COGS, fixed costs and tax - which get to a value per share of over $5. I'm not sure whether your $30m was European revenue or global EPP revenue, but if was just European you can see how we can get to a decent share price just off EPP.

Still - I know as much about their likely revenue as you do (perhaps less). I don't think its unreasonable to think 1,500 people in Europe will use it twice a year, that's 3,000 doses. That would get us to just over A$23m in revenue and probable value approaching $5 (by the maths). Although I take on board your point re reimbursement rate - will it all be at circa E6,000 or will it be different across countries?? The valuation is highly sensitive to sale price so it will be important to know.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 5 2014, 02:44 PM


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Posts: 204

Correction - meant $10 - $15 per share.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 5 2014, 02:44 PM


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Posts: 204

As a sensitivity, lowering the implant usage down to 2 drops the value substantially (by nearly half) to around $5 for each market.

The value of EPP alone, in aggregate across the US and Europe, is probably in the order of $10 - $15m, although highly variable based on take-up rates. However EPP's primary role is to get the company to a point of self-funding so that it may tackle far larger markets in the future.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 5 2014, 02:19 PM


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Posts: 204

Now that we have approval its no longer a completely hypothetical exercise to try to value the company.

If we consider just the European EPP market and assume the following, we get to a $10 share price.

- Total EPP market: 3,000
- Take up: 50% (ie 1,500 patients)
- Price: E6,000 per implant
- Implants per year: 3
- Cost per implant: $250
- Fixed cost (ie SG&A, but excluding any ongoing trials relating to new indications like Vitiligo): $8m
- Tax rate: 30% (I'd hope they would be getting concessional rates much less than this via Switzerland. Zug corporate tax < 20%)
- Shares on issue: 40 million
- PE: Aussie market is about 17 - 18x


Obviously this is just mathematics, but $10 is where this lands on these assumptions. We could do similar for the US which would then be another $10 per share, so EPP would be worth $20 per share.

The market should also bake in some option value for Vitiligo or other indications, so CUV should trade at a premium to the EPP fundamental valuation.

What does this mean? If my numbers are anywhere near accurate, then CUV should steadily trade towards $10 as the European market materialises. Until it materialises its purely hypothetical, but I'd expect the expectation of US approval will push us up over $10 over next 6 months, and hopefully towards $20 once the evidence of market materialises over the coming 12 - 18 months.


Just my thoughts.

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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 3 2014, 12:21 PM


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Posts: 204

Lolley,
Many of us have been in this stock for more years than we care to remember. We are unanimously pleased with approval. I think you are out of line with your assertions on Madman and the manner in which you assert it is unnecessary. There is no need to get personal on anybody on this forum. Everybody is free to post a view, and no view carries any greater weight than any other.

So please play nice!
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 1 2014, 07:20 AM


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Posts: 204

The best defence for any company is to try keep its share price high to force any bidder to pay as much as possible. However a company cannot dictate its own share price. It needs investors to buy into the long term story and price the shares accordingly. I'd like to see broader mainstream broker coverage of this company so that the brokers are also promoting the stock. The company cannot do it themselves. Brokers can be powerful proponents of a stock by delivering views the company won't be comfortable delivering themself.

A more overt form of defence could be to create a 'poison pill'. For example, I don't know much about about the recent agreement with the Singaporeans, but if there was a condition in the agreement whereby upon a change of control in Clinuvel the Singaporeans have the right to acquire the topical formulation for a nominal amount, then this would classify as a classic poison pill arrangement that may deter a buyer from bidding. Although if they did this would be against best corporate practice despite their honorable intentions. Poison pills designed to prevent takeover are either frowned upon or illegal. Management objectives should be to maximise price, not deter takeovers. Its just in our situation we would all be better served if they could deter bidders for a few years.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 1 2014, 05:53 AM


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Posts: 204

[/size]Endymion – I think you may under-estimate the risk of atakeover and over-estimate the control and influence of Dr Wolgen. Although hard to know without knowing moreintimately the composition of the register. There are two broad routes to takeover in Australia:

1. Scheme of Arrangement: Often preferred to thesecond route because the threshold for compulsory acquisition is lower (at 75%vs 90% in the conventional takeover path). The Scheme is a court sanctioned volte of shareholders. As the scheme is put to shareholders via theBoard of the Target, it can only be done as a ‘friendly’ transaction ie theBoard needs to be willing to put the motion to shareholders. Retrophin was seeking to move down thispath, although Clinuvel’s board rejected the proposal and consequently did nottake it to shareholders. However if theBoard was to receive a higher offer – eg $8 a share, then by any conventionalmeasure (premia etc..) this would look compelling, even though all of us herehave much higher aspirations. It wouldbe very difficult for the Board to turn this down. If they did turn it down, and then thecompany subsequently failed, they could open themselves up to legal liabilityif they were deemed to have acted negligently. If in this example the Board were pressured to adopt the scheme, it willthen be up to us shareholders whether the scheme is ultimately adopted. Would 75% of votes take an $8 shareprice? It is a good 100%+ premium fromwhere we are today. Depends how many truebelievers are on the register. If 75%did vote in favour, then we all have to sell whether we like it or not

2. Takeover: The outcomes from this route arevaried. If the Bidder wants to own 100%of the business, then it must receive acceptances from 90% of shares onissue. So it’s a higher threshold thanabove. In this instance the Bidder willset a Condition to reach 90%. However ifthe Bidder is merely hoping to get control, then they may either put forward anunconditional Offer, or set a Minimum 50% threshold. I would think it likely that at an $8 offerprice, a Bidder would get to 50% of the register. Once again, the Board has the right to rejector accept the offer, however this doesn’t stop the offer proceeding. It is just a guide for shareholders

If a Bidder went down route 2, and gained control, what arethe implications? Those of us stayingwould be minority shareholders. TheBidder would control the direction and strategy of Clinuvel. There would be independent Directors on theBoard to try to protect the interests of minority shareholders, and there arelaws also in place to try to prevent a majority shareholder from extractingvalue at the expense of minority shareholders. However these are all imperfect and the majority shareholder willcontrol capital spend, timing of development, direction of development,dividend payout etc… Eventually minorityshareholders can get squeezed out . Isee the risk of that greater here than for a stable mature business where thevalue is already fairly well appreciated.

Hence, I see risk in the low share price as it is today, andI hope Dr Wolgen and Co can encourage broker coverage and strong long termsupport for the company and its direction. Otherwise it will be a 10 bagger for somebody else.

[size="3"]
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 30 2014, 01:43 PM


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Posts: 204

At the current share price I reckon we have to be strong odds on to get taken out. Regulatory risk is now low. I cannot believe the share price is hovering in the $3's. This is petty cash for a pharma major. The biggest risk we have as shareholders right now is a lazy share price enducing a bidder to make a run at us. Other than us long -termers, how many shareholders would resist a $7 per share offer? I expect not many. This thing needs to run and do so quickly in my opinion.

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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 24 2014, 10:32 PM


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Posts: 204

Media release. Next stop, FDA.

http://www.clinuvel.com/en/investors/news-...are-sun-disease
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 24 2014, 09:17 PM


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Posts: 204

Also 10 years in and never sold a share. Well done to Dr Wolgen, Lachlan and co. in seeing this through. The approval is through 'exceptional circumstances' which means that the data clearly didn't convince on efficacy, but through perseverance and strategy management have pushed this across the line.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 24 2014, 08:47 AM


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Posts: 204

I'm not sure it is their decision Rabbitrun. I think the EMA will determine timing on release to the market.

Hopefully the fact they are being respectful of the EMA wishes suggests the news will be good.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 29 2014, 03:44 PM


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Posts: 204

Movement today looks like some manipulation. It didn't take much buying to get it up a $1. The buyer may have been hoping that it would encourage other buyers into the market to backfill behind them. It didn't work. The buy-depth is non-existent. This could plummet back as quickly as it went up.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 15 2014, 04:18 PM


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Posts: 204

Unfortunately it won't be up to us long term shareholders whether our company is acquired or not. We are now likely a small minority of the shareholder base. If a bidder was to put $5.00 on the table, I'm not sure how many current day shareholders would resist taking it. To me this is 50c in the old language and far from what I was expecting.

Under a scheme of arrangement the bidder will need 75% of shareholder votes to be in favour of the deal. If they get this, then the rest of us have no choice and we will be forced to sell out at the bid price. Lets hope our bidder is a one trick pony and gives us long-termers a chance to realise a decent return on this investment.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 28 2014, 11:53 AM


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Posts: 204

As a listed ASX company, they will need to make an Offer either via a formal Takeover offer, or Scheme of Arrangement. For the Takeover, they need a minimum of 90% shareholder acceptance to get to 100%. For the Scheme, they need 75% via a shareholder meeting. What the Directors recommend will be be interesting. If they recommend the Offer, then there is considerably more risk, or considerably less upside than any of us currently believes. Ultimately it will be the shareholders who determine whether control of the company passes.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 27 2013, 11:48 PM


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Posts: 204

Could be very anti-climatic if in fact there is no recommendation in this meeting. It could of course be next month (or September....).
Fingers crossed its tomorrow, and we all get put out of our misery.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 24 2013, 11:27 PM


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Posts: 204

Hi Royco,

Not sure if I missed something, but why do we think that Clinuvel is up for approval this month? The company has been stating that the process with the EMA will continue through 30 June. So I was expecting this month would be fairly uneventful. Am I wrong?
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Klomp
Posted on: May 1 2013, 04:26 PM


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Posts: 204

Interesting decision by the company and lots of mixed messaging for me.
I agree with Minnow that the company would need to raise capital given that they will miss the opportunity to sell into the European summer.

However, their decision to raise this now rather than wait for the EMA process to finalise is interesting. If they were assuming a July or August decision, then they could have survived until then and raised off a higher price.

It suggests to me that they think the saga is likely to continue for many months yet.

On the other hand, if Clinuvel can convince somebody to stump up cash now, this gives me good confidence.

I must say that one thing Clinuvel and Dr Wolgen have always done well is raise capital. We'll have to back his judgement once again.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 26 2012, 12:48 AM


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Posts: 204

I know Baar well. Would be happy to suggest a few places. They have great local beer in Baar called Baarer Bier. Although we'll need to squeeze every last cent out of CUV before we do because it aint cheap in die Schweiz!
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 12 2012, 11:43 PM


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Posts: 204

You don't need just financial debt to fall into bankruptcy. Creditors will be enough. This includes employees. At some point, in absence of significant revenues, Clinuvel would have creditors in excess of cash, and it would qualify for bankruptcy,
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 27 2012, 07:48 PM


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Posts: 204

just had a quick look. There is a $20m assumption in the cash flow for an equity raising in 2012. When I saw the size of the report, an equity raising was the first thing I thought of.
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Klomp
Posted on: Dec 3 2011, 05:07 AM


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Posts: 204

Good article.
Not sure what is better - share issue or licensing agreement. They are both forms of dilution, so depends very much on the terms. Licensing should be preferable as the dilution is compensated by bringing valuable expertise and network backing into the company.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 9 2011, 02:03 PM


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Posts: 204

Thanks Verharven.
Any mention of funding options? CUV runs out of money in about 12 months.


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Klomp
Posted on: Dec 12 2010, 11:14 PM


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Posts: 204

Sorry - I must be smoking dope.
Maths was all wrong. Revenues are less than A$1m.
Still good to have revenue coming through the door!!
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Klomp
Posted on: Dec 12 2010, 11:10 PM


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Huge effort by the company in getting these revenues through the door. Thats revenue of A$9m. Gross margin (sales less direct manufacturing costs) is likely to be a very very high proportion of this. Combined with the interest the company earns on its cash, this eats quite a bit into the annual loss. What it demonstrates is that they wouldn't need too many more patients to be at breakeven (perhaps 100 patients or less), and once at breakeven, the funding issues start to dissipate, and the company substantially de-risks.
Exciting news.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 11 2010, 03:40 PM


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Royco - have you done a google search on Zug? Its quite a famous part of Switzerland for a couple of reasons:
1. its the smallest Kanton in Switzerland
2. its the richest Kanton in Switzerland

Its rich because it attracts the wealthiest individuals and corporations from around the world. It does this through extremely attractive tax rates. Each Kanton of Switzerland (like States) has the right to set its own tax rates. They are regarded as among the lowest in the world, with an upside being they can be negotiated with the tax office (ie rich individuals come to Zug and offer the Zug municipality say CHF1m per annum tax, and thereby avoid submitting a tax return. If you earn CHF20m per annum, you can see why this is extremely appealing to high flyers). Same applies for corporations.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 4 2010, 06:56 PM


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Looks like they've moved to Zug, Switzerland, which is notable for both very low tax rates, and the number of significant companies that now reside there (including many pharma).
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Klomp
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 09:58 AM


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Agree. I don't think we will see 25000EUR. Insurers won't pick up the full tab. So patients would still be required to shell out some significant cash, for what is not really a life threatening condition (ie a preventative exists - stay out of the sun). This is what makes it different from some other orphan indications.
Pricing will depend on insurer support, and degree to which patients benefit (and extent to which they suffer). Worst outcome for CUV would be minimal take-up. I'd prefer them to price more conservatively, and ensure all EPP / SU patients take it up. CUV need to develop a track record and support from the medical community if they are to be successful in broadening its use over time. My view is that the orphan indications are not the end game - simply the means to the end.
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Klomp
Posted on: Dec 10 2009, 10:10 AM


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this happens every day on every stock at the beginning and end of trading.
Prior to market opening, traders will place their bids and asks. For most stocks they will overlap (as they did this morning), and then when the market opens it clears the trades. Also happens after 4pm, and the market clears itself at about 4.10.
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Klomp
Posted on: Dec 9 2009, 09:31 AM


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Perhaps the most noteworthy part of the announcement is the company's excitement re ability to use the data of PDT for EPP. Anything that consolidates the case the company is building for EPP drug registration is a very positive thing
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 24 2009, 06:29 PM


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Uhohinc,

I agree that the financial side of things is now as big an issue as any. I think we have between 12 and 18 months worth of funding left. In that time we need to either see approval, or at the very least strong signals from the regulator that approval is nigh.

I think importantly Dr Wolgen has mentioned that there is a growing awareness of the value of this molecule. If Clinuvel remain reasonably well protected (IP and patents), then Clinuvelit must be the quickest route to market for any party that develops an interest in developing Alpha-MSH. They have patents, know-how and relationships and significantly are in PHase III trials. It will take a long time for a new party to replicate this investment. So long as they remain on the critical path to commercialisation, and safey and efficacy remain strong, I feel confident that funding will be found, and hopefully there will be a competitive process to provide it.

Funding itself can take a number of different forms. I think there are two key categories, and many options within each. The two key categories are: 1 Licensing (Pharma deal) and 2. Equity raising. The problem with 1 is we don't need pharma to help with distribution at this point. I think this could be a costly alternative. I'd prefer a small capital raising.

The raising requirement depends on what is required to get us to market approval. I think capital raised between now and market approval will be expensive (ie we'll need to raise it at a very low price, and hence dilution will be high). After market approval for EPP, I think equity will be plentiful and cheap.

The best thing we can hope for is regulatory approval in EMEA before we run out of funds.

At worst, we may need to give up some upside in the company and cut a deal with pharma, or raise a minimal amount of expensive equity.

But I currently live on the basis that 1. the drug works, and the markets it will service will be lucrative and 2. CUV are protected (patents, and barriers to entry) and therefore provide the quickest route to commercialisation for any party hoping to capitalise on the value of the molecule. If you believe in these 2 principles, then you'd have to believe capital will come, and hopefully there will be multiple parties keen to provide it.

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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 11:01 AM


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What emerged for me yesterday is that time and money are the two biggest risks CUV faces.

They have 18 months worth of funding left. In that time, ideally they will have secured market approval for EPP and revenue will be flowing.
The overwhelming message from yesterday for me was that the drug will eventually make it to market, and the possibilities for it are numerous and lucrative. Its just a question of who will enjoy the spoils. CUV are in the box seat at the moment with exclusivity for a further 5 years with the opportunity to extend that to 7 to 10 years upon approval of EPP. But Wolgen mentioned yesterday that it is only a question of time for competitors to emerge, and he seemed aware that others were experimenting (he made a comment how CUV share facilities with L'Oreal in Berlin). He described the anti-inflammatory properties of the drug - the possibilities of the drug are only now being fully understood by a broad range of interested parties.

Question is, can they convince the regulator on the drug within the 18 month time frame. The key risk to this is the quality of the EPP data which, as Wolgen pointed out, could be impacted by the modified lifestyle enjoyed by EPP patients. Wolgen also indicated a number of times that safety is good, and the product clearly works. So it comes down to the data.

If we cannot achieve our 18 month hurdle, I don't think all is lost. But it means we'll need to revert to Plan B or C for funding. Even in 18 months time, CUV should be valuable. They will have a suite of IP, market exclusivity (albeit for only 3 years or so) but most importantly a significant head-start on the development of the drug given Phase III status. As an investment, Clinuvel represents a first right option on 7 to 10 year market exclusivity on what might become a 'wonder drug' - a drug that would appear (from yesterdays discussion) to be receiving increasing attention from pharma.

Just my interpretation.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 18 2009, 12:38 PM


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I enjoyed the AGM, although went well beyond an hour. I was late for a meeting which I set thinking I'd have plenty of time to get to.

I thought Wolgen was very impressive. He delivered a presentation (both slides and oral) that was clearly organised to address key concerns that have been tabled with the company. My key points are:
* It would appear PLE results are not being processed at this point. To do so would be a direct contradiction to the company's policy of orphan indications. Wolgen said it would simply be the wrong move to pursue PLE before orphan indications have been tapped
* Pricing of the product - will be at the upper end (rather than lower end). This is consistent with other orphan drugs
* There is wide scope to market this drug for indications beyond which has currently been identified. There was some discussion on vitigilo and albinism. Wolgen is clearly in awe at the possibilities with this drug. But with these possibilities comes risk. CUV is only capable of doing so much with this drug at the moment (because of funding). this does open the door to competitors once the initial 20 year exclusivity expires
* Exclusivity - we are nearly through on the initial patent (5 years to run I believe). Orphan status will importantly give us exclusivity for a further 7 to 10 years. Wolgen emphasised this as a critical point
* Next big milestone appears to be approval from US regulators to move into PHase 3 trials in US. This approval should be received (or not) within the next month

Much of the meeting was taken up by Wolgen explaining the evolution of the company from where it was, to where it is today. It has gone from a tanning drug with no hope of market approval (and zero credibility amongst the medical community) to a drug built on science and medicinal application. He emphasised that CUV has built up considerable IP, and its clinical staff are now so well connected in the medical community, that they will convert into a salesforce once the drug is approved. Importantly, CUV have not outsourced the clinical staff - they are all CUV employees.

Of the areas of caution, by my reckoning the big unknown remains statistical significance of the EPP results. As Wolgen pointed out, clearly the drug works (as evidenced by the size of the black mkt that has evolved). But the big issue with EPP participants is that they have spent a lifetime indoors as a result of their affliction. The hard part is to convince them to go outdoors in order for CUV to truly test the benefits of the drug. I didn't get a sense how big an issue this might be, but it was mentioned. I suspect that this is only a timing issue, rather than a definitive deal killer. But against this is the clock - the company has 18 months of finance left in which to get regulatory approval. So it cannot afford too many more delays.

Would be interested in other views from those who attended. On the whole I left impressed and informed. The decisions the company is making / has made make sense to me.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 14 2009, 03:58 PM


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Ask wolgen if he still believes cuv are on track to become a billion dollar company within a couple of years as he has previously forecast.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 11 2009, 06:28 PM


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Not meaning to sound negative, but I assume this response was from the communications manager. In my experience, these guys know little more than us (and whats in the release). This is management's way of controlling dissemination of information.
I'm remaining optimistic however, for time being.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 11 2009, 06:33 AM


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It appears that its all coming down to statistical significance.
They know the drug works and people benefit from it.
But do patients benefit enough to produce an unequivocal result from the stats.
The drug is safe, so thats a big positive. Now its down to the stats.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 10 2009, 10:17 AM


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Youre probably right.
But he does make the point in the release today that he is basing his positive comments on 'anecdotes' rather than statistics, and he (like the rest of us) awaits the results from the clinic.
Previously I thought they expected interim results by 3rd quarter. So surprises me if he doesn't already have a handle on where the stats are coming out, but perhaps it got delayed a bit.
Hopefully at the AGM we will get a picture as to whether they are as upbeat as they have been in the past.

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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 10 2009, 09:41 AM


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Not sure what to make of it.
Seems to be nothing particularly new.
Although they are at pains to describe how hard the road has been. Could be that they are after the due recognition when they file (and hopefully) get approval, or they are conditioning shareholders in the event that the data doesn't support the anecdotes.
The use of language is interesting (but perhaps I am being nervous). He now describes the success as 'hopeful' rather than the 'expected' that he has used in the past. But i might be reading too much into it. AGM will be interesting.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 9 2009, 09:12 AM


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big couple of weeks coming up in the lead up to AGM.
I think if CUV are being discreet to protect their information, then it is hard to complain.
But I think theyve made a number of communication errors over the last 6 months. ie they said US trials were imminent 6 months ago (and now they are not); they said earlier this year that filing would be this year (now filing will be early/mid next yr), they said PLE trials were due mid year (now, who knows), they said PDT were imminent around the release of the annual, but we are yet to hear a thing.
Perhaps it will all come with a surge around AGM. Although there is no reason for it to. I don't think there are executive options this year (only performance shares which don't have a strike price). So I don't subscribe to the view that the price is being kept down.
Bot buying is back. Perhaps thats a good sign!
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 24 2009, 08:42 AM


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Did price move?
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 21 2009, 11:02 AM


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Perhaps annual report? Have you had this sent out to you in the past?
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 14 2009, 10:47 AM


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BD - I think i actually got it wrong. It is meant to be out 28 days (not business days) prior to AGM, so I think they have another day up their sleeve. AGM is 13 November. Will be an interesting read.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 13 2009, 02:46 PM


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I'd be surprised if the annual report is not out today. I think its meant to be.
The annual report and notice of meeting need to go out 21 business days prior to the AGM. Given that the AGM is on 13 Nov, and I believe there is a public holiday between now and then, by my calcs that means deadline is today.
In 2008 the AGM was also on the 13 Nov, and they issued the annual report on 13 Oct.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 6 2009, 07:07 PM


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volumes not startling.
Share price movement doesn't indicate too much either way at the moment.
Everyone is waiting for news. A sustained rally or fall will need to be supported by news.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 29 2009, 09:28 AM


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Dilution will come, it just depends in what form. A deal with pharma is just another form of dilution. I think CUV are right to compare the options.
I wouldn't be suprised if CUV are now seriously contemplating going solo for a period of time. Initially sales of the drug will concentrate on acute conditions. It won't be difficult finding these patients and distributing the drug.
Pharma will be most useful in aiding off-label sales, or in selling to broader indications as they may arise.
Capital raising wouldn't be for some time (Wolgen indicated at least > 6 months away), so plenty of time for the share price to recover.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 29 2009, 08:35 AM


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They can place up to 15% of capital to new shareholders. Any more than this will require shareholder vote.
I agree the big question is why. Do they need the money.
I suspect this is Plan B. Plan A is a deal with pharma. But generally speaking, in order to get the right outcome with Plan A, a Plan B needs to be fully fleshed out and feasible.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 28 2009, 09:02 PM


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Thanks.
Interesting read.
Will be good to get more info from the company at the AGM as to why this is in our best interests.
Why raise capital? Are we planning to tackle commercialisation alone, or is this just a means of competition tension for pharma.
I suspect lots of strategy going on at the moment. We are at the business end...
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 25 2009, 06:01 PM


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Major changes in share register:
- movement in nominees - hard to analyse, because we can't be sure who the nominees are holding for. Some nominees have disappeared from the register since last year
- It would appear the following investors have sold down / out: JM (leading shareholder) has sold some shares. Weighton (Millen) has halved his holding. Jagen Nominees (part of the weatlhy and savvy Liberman family in Australia) have disappeared from the register
- Some individuals, including Dr Michael James Fish have appeared on the register

There were meant to be some prominent investors in Clinuvel, but not sure where they are hidden (or if they are still in), including the Pratt and Myer families. Also the new Swiss institutional investors must be somewhere.

Headstart Global fund is a small UK hedge fund, and I suspect Loughran & Co is linked to the UK legal firm.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 25 2009, 02:15 PM


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I'm not sure they are in institutional hands.
It is ANZ "Nominees". ie ANZ acts as a custodian shareholder, meaning the shares are held on behalf the beneficial shareholder.
If you look at the prior page, there is only one substantial shareholder (ie a shareholder with more than 5%). The substantial shareholder is linked with the Chairwoman of Clinuvel.
This means that while the register is quite open, I think if you were to do some analysis you would find a significant shareholding is linked to the board/management of Clinuvel (particularly when one factors in that the options will immediately vest in the event of a takeover offer).
My sense is a bidder could get to 30 - 50% without too much trouble. But 100% would require the acceptance of board / management. And if they are happy to sell out at low price, given all of their knowledge on the drug and its potential, it probably means we should be happy to sell out too.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 15 2009, 12:12 PM


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I think I missed it too.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 20 2009, 03:07 PM


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I don't think there is much happening at all.
We have somebody buying on automatic pilot - and this has probably accounted for most the volume today. Aside from this activity, we have a few moderate sellers, and otherwise very little liquidity on either side of the page.
Until news is offered, the vast majority of us are doing nothing.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 16 2009, 02:59 PM


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I agree there is considerable scope for off label use across a number of applications.
See the attached article re Botox which claims it is used across 90 applications, yet only has approval from the FDA for 4.
Clearly the most important element in all of this is educating doctors/dermatologists on the benefits and safety of the drug. They ultimately control the distribution of the product.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/12/business/12botox.html

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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 16 2009, 08:14 AM


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Interesting read on off-label sales from Wikipedia:

Off-label use is the practice of prescribing pharmaceuticals for a purpose outside the scope of a drug's approved label - an unproven, untested use - most often concerning the drug's indication[citation needed]. In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requires numerous clinical trials to prove a drug's safety and efficacy in treating a given disease or condition[citation needed]. If satisfied that the drug is safe and effective, the drug's manufacturer and the FDA agree on specific language describing dosage, route and other information to be included on the drug's label. More detail is included in the drug's package insert.
However, once the FDA approves a drug for prescription use, they do not attempt to regulate the usage of the medicine, and so the physician makes decisions based on her or his best judgment. Contrary to popular notion, it is legal in the United States and in many other countries to use drugs off-label, including controlled substances such as opiates. ........................

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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 10 2009, 10:49 AM


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My sense is that there is an undercurrent of support and belief in the product. But there is considerable uncertainty and nervousness about the bona fides of the company. A hint of good news (that things are progressing, and most importantly that big pharma are beginning to take notice and take seriously) will set the share price flying. I did hear word a while back that the medical community were not taking the drug seriously. The company has repositioned itself substantially since then. But we are still yet to see any evidence from those who know best, that this will be the wonder drug we all hope it will. When (if) that comes, the prize will be worth the wait.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 10 2009, 01:45 PM


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I think the topical formulation will help, but won't be necessary to get very significant sales (see botox).
The key to this company is ability to make off-label sales, and ease of access.
Beyond that, a small pellet under the skin is hardly invasive relative to the multitude of other cosmetic treatments currently available.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 1 2009, 02:08 PM


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I'm not sure what the point of this auto-trader is. It seems to be going in circles. It starts with about 900 shares for sale at 38 cents. This gets bought in consistent time periods (of say 30 seconds) at 100 shares at a time. As soon as it gets to zero, the sell side resets itself to 900. So if it is the same buyer and seller (likely), they are just rolling their shares over and over at 38 cents. Perhaps they want to reset their entry price.

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Klomp
Posted on: May 28 2009, 08:24 AM


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Thanks for this. Interesting.
I suspect a key difference is Allergan probably manage the distribution of the drug (although might be wrong). By international standards, Allergan is not a large company. Clinuvel will need to pay a reasonable margin for somebody to distribute.
I think ultimately the other limiting factor is that Clinuvel are ASX listed. My view the best case scenario is probably for Clinuvel to be taken over at some point. I'd love to see $5 a share. But still at pipe dream. I'm hanging in there though.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 22 2009, 08:48 PM


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Uhohinc,
You are right in saying that a bidder must get to 90% to get to 100%.
But a bidder doesn't need to get to 100% to lock up the company and product. A bidder can control the board at 50% shareholding. In Australia, a bidder can make a bid and soak up whatever shareholding comes its way. At a bid of $1.50, there is a fair risk that a bidder would be successful in securing more than 50% of shares on issue. At that point, it becomes more difficult for Clinuvel to secure an alternative commercialisation agreement.
That is the risk that we face. Clinuvel will obviously fight hard in this case, and it will be important that it can find a competing bidder. The only way we would get fair value in this case is if somebody counter bids.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 17 2009, 04:40 PM


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I cant remember how many shares on issue (350ish from memory). But it would be a big leap to see this company as a billion dollar mkt cap. Thats $2 - $3 per share. Anything above that would imply significant 'cosmetic' application in my opinion. I would be happy to see the $2 to $3 mark. Above that is cream.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 8 2009, 10:36 AM


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Interesting. I watched the opening and the trades never seemed to hit the screen so figured it must have been a crossing. Seems highly likely that buyer and seller knew each other because trades were seamless.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 8 2009, 10:22 AM


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Can anybody see the identity of the broker? Clearly it was a crossing.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jan 29 2009, 04:26 PM


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I think thats right.
Market is responding to (what I think is) more subdued remarks on partnership. Ultimately this is the most important thing if we are to ever see a share price of more than $1.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 11 2008, 09:37 AM


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In reply to: Rosewood on Friday 11/07/08 09:15am

i would forward details to Clinuvel (assuming they dont already know about it)
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 11 2008, 08:42 AM


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In reply to: Klomp on Friday 11/07/08 08:41am

Sorry - just seen their web address at the bottom of your post..
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 11 2008, 08:41 AM


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In reply to: impacman on Friday 11/07/08 07:40am

Impacman,

Who are these guys, and what is their website?
This is what it translates to (using Google Translator). Its not perfect, but suggests that they are 'clinically' applying a drug to produce a tan for up to 6 months.


Dear Meditan interested,
because of the incredibly strong and unexpected demand for us, I ask first of all to apologise for the late response to your questions.
The invented by us and registered procedure "Meditan" is a carried out by doctors, cosmetic treatment protocol to achieve a healthy, protected natural tan. This procedure will apply the autumn of 2008 here in Munich and by authorized doctors in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Spain. It is not a free käufliches product. The protocol conform therapy duration is 14 days, the agreement tan is individually controlled and holds up to 6 months. The next application for peptide in Germany under the strictest production controls for "good medical practice" (GMP) on our behalf synthesized.
If we take you on our waiting list and inform you as soon as therapy to arrange or physicians in your area offer the procedure.
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 13 2008, 08:40 AM


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In reply to: kindaker12 on Thursday 13/03/08 07:37am

The mkt depth for CUV is looking interesting. Really good buy volume building, and very thin on the sell side. Has the appearance of being set for a good rise.
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 12 2008, 08:39 PM


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In reply to: Mel N O'Tan on Tuesday 12/02/08 07:40pm

I am as disappointed as any on this board, and probably have more at stake than anybody on this board. But I think some on this board under-estimate the difficulty in bringing a drug like this to market. if it were simple, CUV would have been acquired a long-time ago because once approved it will print cash.
Who knows whether the delays are due to incompetence, or simply careful planning. My understanding is that these processes can balance a bit on knife edge. They need to get everything right - if that means taking a bit more time then so be it. The letter is nothing more than a means to try to appease angry shareholders who no doubt bombard the company every day with questions the company cannot answer.
CUV is still a bet - if you are not comfortable with that, then get your money out while you can.
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Klomp
Posted on: Dec 20 2007, 03:19 PM


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In reply to: paufin on Thursday 20/12/07 02:06pm

Paufin - you are right. There is lots of criticism of management around missed deadlines. And this is justified in part - although i think people underestimate the volatile nature of this sort of business.
But there has been little plaudits for managements forsight to lock in its future capital needs back when it did. If management had not have done this, given where equity markets have moved, CUV would be in real trouble.
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Klomp
Posted on: Dec 15 2007, 10:12 AM


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In reply to: artwolf on Saturday 15/12/07 10:06am

Stay strong and confident folks. this is certainly not over yet.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 21 2007, 07:15 AM


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In reply to: kindaker12 on Wednesday 21/11/07 07:03am

Kindaker - did he mention when this P2 data on this would be available? It doesn't seem to be on the timetables.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 16 2007, 09:07 AM


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In reply to: atsasx on Friday 16/11/07 09:05am

15 minutes ago
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 7 2007, 08:45 AM


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In reply to: gazbodine on Tuesday 06/11/07 03:28pm

No idea how much ACM has dumped.
They are meant to be issuing substantial shareholder notices if they sell (and even when they went to 20%) but they haven't been, and CUV won't do anything about it apparently. So there is no visibility in what is going on.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 5 2007, 10:40 AM


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In reply to: KRD on Monday 05/11/07 07:10am

Smells a bit like somebody is trying to cap the price. Who in their right mind would try to put 2m shares on the market of an illiquid stock? Most sensible traders would drip it into the market over time. All this does is discourage buying.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 22 2007, 09:09 AM


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In reply to: polyphemus on Monday 22/10/07 08:56am

Poly,
You are right - in October last year they issued a substantial shareholder notice. You are also right that substantial shareholders are those that hold 5% or more. These shareholders have to declare movements in shareholding up or down by 1%, and they must also declare if they have ceased to be a substantial shareholder.
ACM have not issued one since October last year. The assumption is therefore that they have not moved from the 15% they held (collectively under ACM). But we know this is wrong - they participated in the rights issue - Clinuvel themselves said after the capital raising within a release to the market that ACM had moved to 20%. Why didn't they issue an updated substantial shareholder notice?
Irrespective of all this, given ACM has not issued a notice that is has ceased to be a substantial shareholder, why was ACM not listed in the annual report as a substantial shareholder?
There is a lack of transparency at the moment in the CUV register. If ACM are selling (as we suspect) then lawfully they should be letting the market know with every 1% movement in their shareholding.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 20 2007, 07:58 AM


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In reply to: weele1970ar on Friday 19/10/07 06:06pm

Weele - my view is that something strange is going on with CUV's register. The company itself said after the recent capital raising that ACM had 20% shareholding. Yet when you look at the annual report they do not appear. It is likely that ANZ Nominees hold on behalf of ACM. But the company should still declare that ACM is the beneficial owner of the shares. And if ACM are selling, they should be issuing notices as they do (requirement for all substantial shareholders).
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 16 2007, 09:14 PM


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In reply to: weele1970ar on Tuesday 16/10/07 08:54pm

Thats an interesting question. ACM put out a substantial shareholder notice last year (at over 7%), but has not issued once since. They should have issued one when they went to 20% but never did. Makes it hard to see whether they have been selling. I believe they are actually breaking the law by not disclosing their shareholding.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 5 2007, 12:59 PM


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In reply to: panguna on Friday 05/10/07 12:52pm

Its very unnerving to see the share price where it is.
I hope management are trying to find a buyer for the ACM stake
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 27 2007, 11:24 AM


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In reply to: chiller on Thursday 27/09/07 12:33am

Guys - I've only been following this stock for a short period of time. It looks very interesting. I first heard about it via a source close to the board who was very excited.
Do you have a sense on news pipeline for SLA? i.e what are key upcoming developments, and when are they expected to fall due.

Many thanks.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 18 2007, 09:20 AM


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In reply to: trisail on Tuesday 18/09/07 09:12am

That doesn't matter. Substantial shareholdings are based on beneficial holdings. A share register is often a very poor guide of the actual shareholders on a register because of the use of 'nominee' companies. But by law, if a company holds more than 5% (whether via nominees or direct) they have to declare this via a substantial shareholder notice. My memory is Absolute Capital Management are a substantial shareholder - but I thought this was a company based in Germany. Is this the same company as the one referrred to in the article?? Sounds like that one is Australian.

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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 18 2007, 07:43 AM


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In reply to: Benjammin on Saturday 18/08/07 07:24am

I'm a reasonably large shareholder of CUV. I haven't sold any, but have been accumulating. Don't worry about share price dips. the only thing that matters is that the company is moving in the right direction. The share price will take care of itself in time. Treat this as an accumulation opportunity. And I think this applies across the board - not just with CUV. Great buying opportunity in the market at the moment.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 4 2007, 10:03 AM


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In reply to: controvers on Wednesday 04/07/07 04:20am

Sell side is really stacking.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 3 2007, 09:52 AM


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In reply to: Benjammin on Tuesday 03/07/07 09:42am

Could it be an error? And I'm talking the volume more so than the price movement. I can't believe 7 million were traded.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 28 2007, 01:07 PM


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In reply to: traveler on Thursday 28/06/07 10:59am

Traveller - I would send Wolgen an email if you have concerns re the US application. He is generally very responsive
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 13 2007, 04:04 PM


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In reply to: endymion96 on Wednesday 13/06/07 02:53pm

I think it started to get a bit low for people. I had buy orders in all the way from 84cents but kept chasing the price up!! I was too greedy - should have just grabbed the 86 while it was there. It will now finish 2 cents up on the day!
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 13 2007, 12:45 PM


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In reply to: traveler on Wednesday 13/06/07 12:24pm

Pretty low volumes though traveller. I don't think it has been a major dump just yet. Just no buyers - although good buying opportunity.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 5 2007, 03:55 PM


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In reply to: traveler on Tuesday 05/06/07 03:14pm

Good post Traveler. I think you summarise the situation very well.
Do you have an idea on when the IND in the US might be announced?
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Klomp
Posted on: May 30 2007, 10:26 AM


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In reply to: traveler on Wednesday 30/05/07 10:08am

Market depth is swinging around again. Significant buyers are accumulating. Should rise quite well now.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 29 2007, 03:39 PM


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In reply to: traveler on Tuesday 29/05/07 03:22pm

I don't think the SPP was a bad idea. I don't think the company is relying on it in the slightest. In hindsight, perhaps it was smart for CUV to raise the money when it did given that it might not have the flow of news to support a high price in the coming period. SPP's are used by company's as a way of appeasing small shareholders who hate the fact that they continually get diluted by placements. Company's only ever factor a moderate uptake from this. Obviously in this case the uptake will be zero - but nonetheless, I don't think CUV will be too concerned.
I think there will be a good accumulation opportunity in coming months.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 30 2007, 03:17 PM


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In reply to: Pessimist on Monday 30/04/07 12:23pm

Depth is looking a bit sick at the moment.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 27 2007, 11:13 PM


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In reply to: woteva on Friday 27/04/07 08:32pm

I agree. If this is true it is a very interesting and positive development. It will really put Clinuvel on radar screens unlike ever before. Money follows good investors. Oncard recently doubled in value when it was publicised that Packer and Pratt had backed it.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 04:05 PM


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In reply to: traveler on Tuesday 24/04/07 03:37pm

Delay with announcement also suggests to me a capital raising process which probably involves a number of institutions. If just one or two strategic investors, then presumably they would have been very close to agreement (or already agreed) prior to trading halt. Feels like an actual process - ie presenting to institutions, running a book etc...
Will be interesting.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 09:06 AM


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In reply to: woteva on Tuesday 24/04/07 08:31am

Woteva - they only need to issue a trading halt if they have an incomplete proposal (or capital raising) when the shares are otherwise meant to be trading. You don't need to issue a trading halt simply bc you are undertaking a placement. I think prior placements have been via negotiation with targeted investors and have been executed outside market hrs. If you are conducting a 'bookbuild' placement you either do outside market hrs, or you issue a trading halt to ensure no movement in price. If CUV have signed an underwriting agreement supporting a raising, they will also either need to announce this outside market hrs, or issue a trading halt.
So no hard or fast rules on this. All we know is that there is an incomplete proposal of sorts. This usually involves a second party which is why I don't think it is AIM (or can't simply be AIM) - bc why wouldn't they just announce once they had this cleared?? No need for a halt. Thats also why a rights issue is not generally associated with major halts - bc you are in full control of situation, and simply announce when you are ready to announce. This might change if there is a leak, or if an underwriting agreement has been signed - in either case trading must be halted immediately.
I'd be amazed if this is not one of either: strategic partners/ strategic investors / or underwritten capital raising.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 24 2007, 08:25 AM


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In reply to: woteva on Tuesday 24/04/07 08:14am

I don't think that matters. Depends on the way they are trying to raise capital. If it is a rights issue (as per last time) then there is no need for trading halt. They might be doing an accelerated placement to institutions / strategic investors, in which case they would have a trading halt. This is probably what they are doing.
Alternatively, they might be announcing a strategic partnership (with funding component) with a pharma or other. The concern I might have with this is if it locks the company in with one strategic partner now. Effectively this takes away all competitive tension that should evolve down the track once CUV is ready for commercialisation. Ultimately CUV is a company that should be sold at some point down the track, and ideally to the highest pharmaceutical bidder.
This will be interesting.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 23 2007, 10:49 AM


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In reply to: King Baz on Monday 23/04/07 10:42am

King Baz - I understand that but still doesn't seem likely. I am an investment banker so deal with raisings often. I'd be suprised if they are doing a book-build Monday morning! Many of their targeted are o/s. It doesn't add up to me that they would be doing this now. They are a long way from needing the money.
But might be wrong.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 23 2007, 10:37 AM


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In reply to: traveler on Monday 23/04/07 10:29am

Must be a strategic investor of some description - they wouldn't halt otherwise. Could be an interesting announcement.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 2 2007, 11:35 AM


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In reply to: woteva on Monday 02/04/07 11:10am

I think it might have been a classic play this morning. Somebody took advantage of sparse sell-side, knowing there were eager buyers lining up for stock. He pushed it high removing all the sellers, waited for the buyers to follow it up, and then dumped.
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 11:12 AM


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In reply to: woteva on Thursday 29/03/07 11:08am

The sell side is remarkable. I've never seen anything like it. Its completely barren.
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 19 2007, 10:04 AM


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In reply to: Benjammin on Monday 19/02/07 09:19am

I'm reasonably confident the company could get fair value in a buyout. I think you're forgetting that the major shareholder is Florian Homm. He is a tough professional financial investor. He's sat is this stock for quite a while and is certainly expecting for a big payout. I don't agree with sentiment that the stock will be sold on the cheap. However, whether that means it goes for more than $2 or $3 a share is another matter. I'm not sure what's reasonable value anymore for this company. They've issued an awful lot of shares.
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 18 2007, 10:00 PM


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In reply to: Benjammin on Sunday 18/02/07 01:02am

My perspective is the more equity the directors and management have, the greater the incentive they will have to maximise the outcome for shareholders.
I too am not keen on dilution. But I also think the board and management have been under-represented on the register (apart from a few).
Remember, the board and management cannot 'sell' the company. As a listed company - with now quite an open register - ultimately shareholders will decide that.
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 17 2007, 08:52 PM


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In reply to: Benjammin on Saturday 17/02/07 12:19pm

I think you should read the terms of the options which was detailed with the notice of meeting. A few things people shoudl note before they get too upset:
* Shareholders ratified this at the AGM. So this wasn't sprung on shareholders- it was voted on and the specific details were provided
* A significant portion (almost half) are subject to performance hurdles. These options do not vest until cetain hurdles are met, within set time limits
* This is in part in lieu of a salary. CUV does not pay its executes (and executive directors) salaries indicative of a company with a $200m market cap.

The calculation in the notice of meeting indicates that the options would represent around 6% of issued capital - if they all vested. But they only vest in whole if the company can achieve some fairly major milestones - in which case shareholders will do very nicely anyway.
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Klomp
Posted on: Nov 20 2006, 05:45 PM


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In reply to: campbellkaryn on Monday 20/11/06 02:52pm

I will sue the company if after raising $30m, and incurring a cash burn of hundreds of thousands a month they turn around and give shareholders a dividend!!!
Simple fact is there is no dividend from Clinuvel, and is not possible in any case because a dividend can only be paid out of profits (retained or curren) and as Clinuvel doesn't have any it simply cannot pay a dividend.
Will be a great day when they finally do pay a dividend.
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Klomp
Posted on: Oct 12 2006, 05:10 PM


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In reply to: woteva on Thursday 12/10/06 12:20pm

Absolutely agree. As an investment banker I can tell you that rights issues are nowhere near as popular as they used to be for large issues because the share price nearly always moves towards the rights price. I think CUV have done well to hold a premium to the rights price. And it is for the reason Woteva speaks of - shareholders will try to capitalise on the price differential between the rights trading price (1 - 3c), the rights offer price $0.385 and the after market price of CUV. It is a bit riskier to do with CUV bc can't short sell. But for larger companies, it is an opportunity for intense arbitrage.
Don't expect any significant price appreciation until the period after the rights issue.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 14 2006, 10:16 AM


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In reply to: InHindSight on Monday 14/08/06 09:46am

I agree with popular sentiment on this board that Clinuvel's shareholder relations is at best inept. But I don't think fundamentally things have changed for the drug. I don't think the cancellation (or perhaps just postponement - we don't yet know) of the topical should greatly impact the value of the company. Sure topical is more user friendly, but would only have been more icing on the cake.
The one area that I want clarification on is the primary indication. Sounds like this might be changing from PLE to AK. If this is just for regulatory reasons, I remain content. And I suspect it is (rather than poor results from PLE). The company confirmed for me last week that PLE results were very strong as per last announcement. So I suspect their thinking is AK is just a sharper knife with which to attack the regulators.
One way or another this company will be a success so long as the technology holds. Only question is how much of the potential value management will destroy on the journey. Phillipe cannot be blamed for much of this - he inherited much of these strategies. Although he does need to take responsibility for the company's negligence in reporting matters to ALL shareholders.
I still hold. Not happy, but been in too long to sell now!!
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Klomp
Posted on: Feb 24 2006, 09:10 AM


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In reply to: endymion96 on Friday 24/02/06 08:52am

Endy - there is no doubt they are doing it for regulatory reasons. They have long battled the stigma of being labelled a trivial 'tanning' drug, and this has put them at odds with important lobby groups - sun-smart, anti-cancer council here in Australia. I think they believe the company itself needs to have a serious medical face, because the tanning aspects of the drug will never be something they need to promote - it will promote itself. If the company simply focuses on the health benefits of the drug, it becomes much more saleable to regulators and even skeptical prospective customers who believe a "tanning drug" sounds unsafe or a gimick.
Also - I can tell you in my discussions with the company, Wolgen is perceived a little like a dictator. He is a tenacious sort of character, and has put his reputation on the line with this new timetable. I'm excited about the next 6 months and remain very hopeful that he will hit is Phase III deadline. If so, this thing could fly.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jan 23 2006, 07:11 PM


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Traveller,
Just so you know - I haven't sold one share since I first invested in the company several years ago. I still remain a loyal and hopeful shareholder.
I still have confidence that the company will get there. My understanding is that staff are being worked around the clock under the new CEO. My mail is that he is one of those people who require very little sleep, and he is working around the clock to make this a success. He is given up much to relocate here at very short notice, and the fact that Agersborg at 70ish has decided to relocate and move back into an executive role should be regarded as a sign of what they think of the drug internally.
My understanding also it that the new major investor, Florian Homm, is dead keen for this business and is wanting a deal with pharma (as opposed to self fund route and AIM listing). This might have something to do with the delay in AIM.
I also believe that discussions with pharma are tremendous. It is just a matter of when is the right time to deal to maximise returns for shareholders.
In short - I don't think anything negative has happened over the past 6 months. Its just that we haven't really moved as far forward as we all would have hoped. I am hopeful that the change in management may drive the business forward a little quicker than in recent times.
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Klomp
Posted on: Sep 2 2005, 09:33 AM


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In reply to: trisail on Friday 02/09/05 06:31am

Good article.
Particularly like the comments about the off-label use. Suggests the company expects the market for Melanotan is still the broad, despite a narrowing of the indication.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 5 2005, 10:15 AM


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In reply to: Klomp on Friday 05/08/05 10:10am

Actually it is interesting they have called an EGM in Sept when they could have refreshed this at the AGM in October. This is generally when company’s refresh it. Seems a rather urgent act to refresh it now.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 5 2005, 10:10 AM


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In reply to: SpookyOz on Friday 05/08/05 10:09am

Boring.
Just refreshing placement capacity.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 3 2005, 12:45 PM


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In reply to: traveler on Wednesday 03/08/05 12:35pm

Ive also heard the same from people who have used it first hand, but they also said that this was an initial effect, and that once the overall tan caught up, their freckles tended to blend back in.
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Klomp
Posted on: Aug 1 2005, 09:39 AM


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In reply to: woteva on Monday 01/08/05 09:11am

Woteva – It is obvious why people are a little negative – and I don’t think it is completely unfounded. I’m still cautiously optimistic, but I must confess I don’t understand exactly know the timeline towards opening this drug to the mass market. If it takes 10 – 15 years before it can be mass-marketed, then I too would be negative. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a success, but it will be a long time down the track (and much further than original expectations). Perhaps the company themselves don’t know, and perhaps they are unable to comment, but I sure would love to know exactly how a drug develops from being one of narrow prescription to one capable of being marketed to a broad base of consumers. I’d also love to know exactly who classifies as being a PMLE sufferer. If it is simply a sensitivity to sun, then it effectively will be open to the mass market, so long as the mass market know they are capable of getting it.
But you have to expect that management are doing what is best for the development of the drug. Whether this development is a positive reflection of the PMLE results, or a negative reflection on the ability of the drug to otherwise get approval is unsure. I think in summary, the probability of it being commercialised has risen, but the potential market may have fallen. The degree to which these two offset each other, and resultant impact on value is impossible to read from the information provided.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 28 2005, 12:00 PM


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In reply to: King Baz on Thursday 28/07/05 11:42am

My read is that the effects of PMLE are fairly diverse – and they say in the corporate release that there is a very large latent market out there because people don’t get it diagnosed – i.e they probably just think they are very sensitive to UV. I think PMLE is basically just another way of saying highly sensitive to UV. It is probably not a major stretch to think dermatologists will prescribe the drug to all those that fit that bracket. I’m not sure how they would otherwise test for PMLE other than testimony from the patient, and a visual of the skin of the patient. In that sense, I can see the drug being prescribed to a broad range of people. However, it will be more arduous to get the drug for some time – i.e you will need to demonstrate a need – which means wider cosmetic market may not be fully tapped for several years. How many years is an interesting questions.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 27 2005, 04:43 PM


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In reply to: console on Wednesday 27/07/05 04:22pm

I hope it doesn't take Epitan 15 years to begin marketing the drug for cosmetic purposes (a la Botox)!!
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 27 2005, 01:41 PM


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In reply to: oldsilver on Wednesday 27/07/05 01:17pm

Could the market be a little concerned with the apparent shrinkage of the Epitan target market (i.e focussed selling into a PMLE market is a far cry from selling widely to everyone who wants a cosmetic tan). I wonder if this is sounding more like a niche drug, rather than one mass-marketed.
They have obviously taken advice that this is the quickest and most certain route to market. Once in market, presumably there will scope to sell outside the indication – but how much scope, and after what period of time are two questions I have.
I think on balance this is a good announcement because it sounds like the probability of the drug getting to market is greater. It just might be that the size of the market is not as great (at least initially) as we had originally hoped.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 27 2005, 12:38 AM


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In reply to: King Baz on Wednesday 27/07/05 12:27am

Hope you are right King. I am very long with Epitan.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 26 2005, 11:44 PM


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In reply to: console on Tuesday 26/07/05 10:07pm

I hope there hasn't been a delay in the topical clinical trials. This was meant to have commenced some time back - but there has been no news to say this is the case.
Although of course, this is not anywhere near as important as the PMLE results due soon. This could make or break the company.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 21 2005, 06:37 PM


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In reply to: console on Thursday 21/07/05 06:06pm

The patent situation is fine. The company just hasn't reported the facts very well. Although the patent relating to the delivery mechanisms is still yet to come through - but I don't think the company believes this will be an issue at all. The more major issue (and single biggest risk) is regulatory. Getting US approvals to conduct trials will be an important step towards approval, and should see significant movement in the share price. Good results with PMLE will be a key step towards this.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 19 2005, 09:52 PM


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In reply to: Klomp on Tuesday 19/07/05 09:41pm

A bit more for you...


The brainchild of star hedge fund manager, Florian Homm, a major pioneer in the field of European hedge funds, ensures that the Zurich-based Fortune Management’s Absolute Return Europe (ARE) fund is a special investment vehicle. Homm is, after all, an award winning fund manager – he has won 12 investment awards, and once worked under Fidelity’s Peter Lynch.

“He learned how to find the raw diamonds from Peter, the companies that have great potential,” says Fortune fund manager, Ullrich Angersbach. Later, Homm refined his style, by using shorts for companies, which, according to a peer-group analysis, are totally overvalued. This way, he can make money in good and bad times. Later on, Darius Parsi, an experienced analyst in European stocks, joined the management team as well.

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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 19 2005, 09:41 PM


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In reply to: wiland on Tuesday 19/07/05 08:22pm

Here is a snippet. They are also a big investor in psivida.


FM Fund Management Ltd is a specialist asset manager with operations in Switzerland, Spain, Germany and the Americas. The firm’s lead manager and majority shareholder is Florian Homm, one of the most renowned European investors and a specialist in the Life Sciences sectors. Mr. Homm has won several major investment awards from agencies such as Lipper, Micropal, S&P, Morningstar and Finanzen and as the founder and largest shareholder, he also developed Value Management and Research AG into one of the largest and most profitable independent asset managers in Germany with a peak stock market value of €550 million.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 19 2005, 03:58 PM


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In reply to: InTheGroove on Tuesday 19/07/05 03:23pm

I think these guys are related both to the Octane fund that participated in the recent small capital raising and FM management which was one of the Euro insto's that came aboard last year.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 19 2005, 10:53 AM


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In reply to: Klomp on Tuesday 19/07/05 10:36am

Interesting- Tricom are doing all the buying. They have spent the last month and a bit selling almost exclusing over 7m shares, and now they are standing in the market buying up. Almost like they are reversing a short.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 19 2005, 10:36 AM


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In reply to: InTheGroove on Tuesday 19/07/05 10:32am

Not a crossing and done at market. But obviously buyer and seller knew each other.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 13 2005, 09:24 PM


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In reply to: wiland on Wednesday 13/07/05 08:55pm

Macquarie Insto was the major buyer.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 13 2005, 12:21 PM


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In reply to: johnsie07 on Wednesday 13/07/05 12:13pm

Strange that they would cut you. Certaintly wasn't the original intention. You should expect to see some impact after a week, and much more impact after about 15 days or so. But the degree of impact will be much greater if you receive a little UV light.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 11 2005, 01:38 PM


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In reply to: hbjordan19 on Monday 11/07/05 01:18pm

I think the capital raising is more significant than the amount suggests. It buys the company valuable additional months to deliver trial results to the market, and drive the share price higher before diluting the shareholders further. And it alleviates some of the funding uncertainty, with some good backers now behind the company, and who (in theory) should be willing and capable of contributing further capital if the company continues to successfully jump the hurdles. From my perspective, it was a very significant announcement.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 11 2005, 12:27 PM


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In reply to: zipper on Monday 11/07/05 12:14pm

Does anybody have a view on the calendar for the rest of the year (i.e when do we expect announcements on PLME etc...)
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 8 2005, 05:43 PM


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In reply to: polyphemus on Friday 08/07/05 05:18pm

Don't know how FM funds management could have sold. There have been no substantial shareholders notices
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 7 2005, 06:14 PM


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In reply to: InTheGroove on Thursday 07/07/05 04:35pm

They need to come out with a few good announcements / developments over the course of the next month or so to really get the share price moving. They won't want to leave it too long before they embark on a more meaningful capital raising (potentially even have another crack at AIM). Ideally we'd like to see above $0.70 before this happens.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 7 2005, 04:07 PM


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In reply to: zipper on Thursday 07/07/05 02:07pm

Completely agree Zipper. The company had no choice. I don’t think an SPP would have yielded much at all. Before the recent share price rise (and without the raising today) I think most shareholders would have been too doubtful to be committing further money into EPT. A failed SPP would have been particularly embarrassing (and very public) as well as time consuming. And doesn’t do anything for the register which still desperately needs institutional representation. No question the company did the right thing.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 7 2005, 10:01 AM


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In reply to: wiland on Thursday 07/07/05 09:57am

SPP's are out of vogue. There is no guarantee of take-ups, and what this company needs is fast funds, certainty and institutional shareholders.
The reality of this company is they will unlikely go back to retail shareholders for more funds. Their funding requirements are reasonably modest, but they will look predominantly to insto's to provide these funds. Hence why it is so important to get these guys on the register now.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 7 2005, 09:30 AM


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In reply to: dory on Thursday 07/07/05 09:22am

Way too hard to offer a right of participation for existing retail holders. only a couple of ways of doing it, and both are logistically difficult, time-consuming and have little guarantee of positive results.
This was the only thing they could do.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 7 2005, 09:21 AM


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In reply to: zipper on Thursday 07/07/05 08:51am

Announcement - small capital raising $3.5m.
I think a sensibly sized raising given the share price. Don't want to be raising too much at these sorts of levels. Hopefully share price will recover to enable a more meaningful raising down the track.
Good to get some more insto's on the register.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 6 2005, 02:24 PM


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In reply to: wiland on Wednesday 06/07/05 02:18pm

Would be very hard for them to merge now David Williams is an adviser to EPT. Chairman of MVP would have a small conflict on his hands if that were the case.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 6 2005, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: WHISTLER7 on Wednesday 06/07/05 10:08am

Visible sell depth has really evaporated
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 6 2005, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: jumper on Wednesday 06/07/05 09:42am

Columbine Venture Fund is interesting. That's Terry Winters venture cap firm that he co-founded. That is a good vote of confidence.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jul 4 2005, 05:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: Astera on Monday 04/07/05 04:22pm

Long way to go with this stock yet. I think everything (other than the share price) indicates things are moving in the right direction. I'd expect to hear something in the next few weeks on funding. They cannot leave it too long. Definitely worth holding, if not accumulating at these levels.
If the technology works (and we have every reason to believe it works extremely well) then it will get to market. Just a matter of a little patience.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 14 2005, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: InTheGroove on Tuesday 14/06/05 08:02pm

Agree ITG. Nothing has changed. This company was always embarking on something bold and new. The technology works fine. The patent situation is strong. The key outstanding risk is regulatory, and that is what will stop a pharma deal being executed in the short term. Pharma are understandably cautious. Approval to conduct trials in the states will be the key catalyst for a major share price re-rating, and a pharma deal.
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Klomp
Posted on: Jun 1 2005, 01:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: straightback on Wednesday 01/06/05 12:22pm

Straightback – I too have a very large shareholding in EPT. And I too anxiously await to be updated. But I don’t think you can expect the company to be necessarily forthcoming with the answers you seek in a direct email to you. They will need to address most of your points in a release to the market (either via a corporate briefing, or at the back end of another announcement).
There are also likely to be some limits as to what the company can reasonably say (both legally, and commercially). For example, they cannot reasonably elaborate on their discussions with pharma – other than saying they are ongoing. They also cannot reasonably talk at length about their patent situation – other than to say that they have an application for a patent that will give them 20 years exclusivity for ALL deliver mechanisms that provide a sustained release of the drug.
My understanding is that everything is moving along very smoothly, and the company has never been further progressed with the drug.
But I agree with you that the company has to be more forthcoming with info, and hopefully the pressure you have exerted will be reflected in upcoming announcements. The biggest mistake this company has made is promising too much too early. They were never going to get a pharma deal up so quickly given that Melanotan is completely new technology, in a completely new market, with new and difficult regulatory risks. It takes significant time, and I expect that EPT has worked out that it will be in a significantly better position to negotiate a deal once some of these risks have been addressed.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 26 2005, 07:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: zipper on Thursday 26/05/05 06:58pm

EPT don't need somebody to buy on market. They need to physically issue shares to raise money. That has not yet happened.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 26 2005, 06:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: stoss69 on Thursday 26/05/05 06:44pm

It really isn't news. It is well known (in the financial community) that Epitan have spoken to many investment banks - as all company's do. They are the route to investors.
Epitan will not be looking to raise a large slab of equity in the short term while the price is so low. I think they will look at a smaller raising with one or two key strategic investors to improve the register, and then perhaps look back at AIM once the price settles, and the biotech market improves. It might not be an imminent raising - the company is not in urgent need for funds. It needs to stabilise and preferably improve the price before it will attract investment.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 25 2005, 12:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: apple1 on Wednesday 25/05/05 12:17pm

You people with your charts are hilarious.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 25 2005, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: traveler on Wednesday 25/05/05 10:34am

I agree with you Traveler. I think you’ll find everything is actually going along very well with the company operationally. But with these stocks, it is amazing how quickly sentiment can swing. And I wouldn’t be blaming EPT for the failure at AIM – do a search and you’ll find a number of other companies that have suffered the same fate. There are no biotechs raising capital at the moment. With patience, they will have their chance again.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 24 2005, 08:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: console on Tuesday 24/05/05 08:17pm

Guys - lets not jump to any conclusions just yet. It is very easy to get carried away when the share price is declining. I think the company has always adhered to full disclosure. The fact that it has not announced anything re a capital raising is because there is nothing yet to announce. The biotech market is terrible at the moment for raisings, but will turn. I think the company is probably being patient. Sentiment on these types of stock can turn very dramatically. We are seeing the effects of negative sentiment at the moment. If things are truly going as well as the company is making out, the company is ridiculously undervalued at the moment.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 24 2005, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: Mel N O'Tan on Tuesday 24/05/05 02:35pm

Not a ridiculous comment. Fact. Investor Relations / Communications advisers only communicate what they are allowed to. And she can only repeat what has already been said – no more detail than that. I’m sorry you don’t understand Australian Corps law.
If you have a beef (and I too would like further info), then it is probably with Iain and/or the board who are the decision makers when it comes to points of dislcoure.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 24 2005, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: thursday on Tuesday 24/05/05 01:51pm

I think you are being a little harsh. Can you imagine how many emails and calls she must get each day from investors aggressively attacking her and Iain about the plight of the company’s share price. I am certain they are not happy about it – they must find it incredibly frustrating. Their main priority is to raise funds to keep the company alive – and this is certainly being hurt by the share price.
You must appreciate that they are very very limited in what they can say to you in response to your enquiries. There is a little thing down here called continuous disclosure which means they cannot answer the queries of one shareholder unless the information is public for all. I am sure they are working through what they can tell the market to appease concerns, but don’t expect a one on one discussion. And the decision about what can be released is not Davina’s call – it is an Iain / lawyer / board decision. I think she is being put in a very unfair position.
In the meantime, I’m sure they do not need to deal with this vitriol from shareholders. Hold tight.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 24 2005, 11:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: traveler on Tuesday 24/05/05 11:37am

Tricom have just pulled out of the market. Sell depth looks a little healthier now.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 23 2005, 06:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: WHISTLER7 on Monday 23/05/05 01:56pm

I wouldn't be selling out at a $1. If pharma put a $2 bid on the table I'd be reluctant to sell. As soon as they bid I have the confirmation I am after and this thing could yet be an absolute blockbuster.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 23 2005, 01:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: endymion96 on Monday 23/05/05 01:16pm

I actually remain cautiously optimistic. I think they set an unreasonable time to deal with pharma and are continuing to make good progress with the drug. I think the issue of bigger risk at the moment is one of corporate control. EPT are certainly vulnerable to a bid right at a fairly ordinary price by a bidder seeking to take control to put their foot on the business. I don’t think a bidder will be successful at getting to 100% without a very high price, but a bid at a $1 or slightly higher should probably get most of the register.
The funny thing is, as soon as somebody bids, it basically provides the independent validation of the technology we all after. With that validation, my price expectations rise substantially.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 20 2005, 11:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: console on Friday 20/05/05 11:00am

Yep - Tricom going beserk. They have sold 2.5m in the past month (no buys)
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Klomp
Posted on: May 18 2005, 01:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: straightback on Wednesday 18/05/05 12:56pm

Tricom have sold down 1m shares over the past month – no buys.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 17 2005, 09:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: indian on Tuesday 17/05/05 08:51pm

Mate - it is these sort of calls where you lose all credibility. Look at the release on the 28th Feb - done exactly the same way (i.e interest in the entity in question on the first page, and entire relevant interest on the second page).
Irrespective of whether he has correctly filled out the form (ie should the front page be his entire relevant interest, or just the entity in question), there is enough information on the release to work out everything you need to. There is no deception.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 17 2005, 08:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: indian on Tuesday 17/05/05 07:46pm

Indian - It is quite clear what the release is showing. The first page refers to the entity of the family trust only which is going from 100 to 123k. The second page shows his entire relevant interest. Settle down my friend - there is no major controversy here.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 12 2005, 08:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

With all due respect, I don't think x-ray has ever said anything on this site that he can either verify, or has ultimately come true. I would take his 10% royalty comment with a grain of salt.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 11 2005, 09:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

I'm very worried. By my calc's they might have 6 months cash remaining. But every day that passes that erodes, and the need to raise capital increases. And raising capital will not get any easier as each day passes - nor is it likely that the share price will materially increase while this uncertainty exists. One might expect just the opposite as we head closer to the deadline.
Unless a pharma deal is struck, I think it is highly unlikely that Epitan will ultimately be issuing shares above the current market price. And I can't see any other options to raise capital i.e it is either through a pharma, or through the issuance of new shares. And I don't expect a rights issue will be strongly supported - I don't know too many shareholders who would be happy to part with more cash at the moment. There would have to be significant disclosure on a number of items before I would part with mine.
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Klomp
Posted on: May 9 2005, 08:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: WHISTLER7 on Monday 09/05/05 08:30pm

Whistler - the problem is, management will not be completely forthcoming with information because it is not necessarily in the companies interest (and therefore our interest) for them to do so. If there is a moderate patent problem, and if there has been a disappointing initial response from pharma, they would be crazy to admit. They will need to be factual in what they discuss with insto's, but they also need to be positive in order to raise the money. There are serious consequences if they dishonestly promote the company, but at the same time they will be reticient to speak too loudly about the potential risks, because this would ultimately doom the company.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 27 2005, 09:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: Mel N O'Tan on Wednesday 27/04/05 09:05pm

Yeah - but it seems to me that the chemical is the thing that can be very strongly patented. The other things (like delivery mechanisms) might be a tad easier to get around. Given that the chemical in this case is free for, I have slight concern that others might be able to successfully market the drug very soon.
I hope that is not the case - I'm a very big shareholder. We'll soon find out.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 27 2005, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: wiland on Wednesday 27/04/05 08:03pm

I pretty much figured this was the case.

The success and value of Epitan now rests squarely on the strength of the delivery mechanism patents and the indication patents. If the pharma industry is like most other industries, then it might be possible for other pharma to slip around some of these patents by changing small aspects of the patented technology. This might be why pharma hasn’t been forthcoming to date – they might think they can get to market with Melanotan without EPT.
In any event, EPT should have a slight timing advantage – it will take time for pharma to get their trials through. But nobody will get rich by a “slight timing advantage” – and if this is the case, then EPT might struggle to raise the funds. Unlikely institutions will be genuinely excited by the prospect of a slight timing advantage.
The capital raising will give us all a good indication of how strong the company and its patent situation are. Institutions will scrutinise this carefully.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 18 2005, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: clarebatt on Monday 18/04/05 10:48am

Clarebatt – I think you have summed it up perfectly. I am still a very substantial holder, so I hope and pray that they are successful with the raising. The only thing I disagree with is your timing – I think we’ll know the outcome of this binary outcome in the next month.
Re the backup option – I am amazed that EPT did not disclose the alternatives / repercussions of an unsuccessful raising in the circular sent to shareholders. If there is no backup plan, then this should have been listed as a risk of the capital raising not progressing. There has been far few words spoken on this matter by either the brokers or EPT management. Although it has occurred to me that perhaps they don’t want to highlight this issue because it might only lead to further share price weakness which in turn hurts the capital raising – so becomes self fulfilling.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 12 2005, 11:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: zipper on Tuesday 12/04/05 10:05pm

I wish Epitan would clarify what is going to happen should they not be able to raise the requisite funds for Phase III. Are we without a company at that stage??
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 6 2005, 10:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: j_la_manna on Wednesday 06/04/05 09:52pm

j la - corporate file is just a passive service used by companies to get messages out. This would have been initiated by Epitan (i.e Epitan would have called them up to say they wanted to put out a briefing) and then would have provided both the questions and the answers. It is made to look independent, but it is really just a Q&A provided by the company.
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Klomp
Posted on: Apr 5 2005, 09:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: roadrunner on Tuesday 05/04/05 09:09pm

Little point playing chicken with pharma to earn an extra 5% royalty if we end up issuing a heap of shares at a ridiculously low price. I certainly hope they know what they are doing because this is company is being bet on this. On the other hand, perhaps they had no choice. Who's to know.
In any case, we should know whether our shares are still worth something by the first week of May when the bookbuild is carried out.
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 31 2005, 06:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: stoss69 on Thursday 31/03/05 06:12pm

Stoss - you don't have to call a special meeting bc one has already been organised to vote on the placement because it is more than 15% of issued capital. So you will have the opportunity to ask questions, and vote on whether the placement proceeds
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 30 2005, 07:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: WHISTLER7 on Wednesday 30/03/05 07:39pm

Of course they didn’t lie to us. They never said they definitely would get a partner, but they definitely have been trying. That’s business – things don’t always happen the way you want them to.
After discussions with pharmas, they obviously felt they had no choice but to got it alone. Certainly not an ideal outcome, nor one the company would have ideally chosen.
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 30 2005, 07:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: gliontos on Wednesday 30/03/05 06:56pm

Qliontos – I don’t think you can really view this as all that positive. Remember, shareholders might get a bigger slice of the pie, but this pie will have to be spread over many more shareholders. And at today’s price (and where it is likely to head), this may be many many more shareholders. So the share you and I get might not be as large as we once thought.
I think you have to view this as a negative because clearly this was not EPT’s ideal path to commercialisation, and has put the company in a very precarious situation should the demand for shares not be there.
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Klomp
Posted on: Mar 30 2005, 06:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 204

In reply to: skorpian on Wednesday 30/03/05 06:47pm

I expect the market will view this negatively because it clearly says that pharma support is not yet there. The capital raising will not be underwritten which means Epitan is in a poor negotiating position with institutional investors. If the capital raising is not successful (i.e not enough demand, or price being offered is too low) then not many options remain. Epitan may have to accept a very sub-optimal pharma agreement as the only other option for survivial. Next month or so is a very crucial time in its evolution.
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