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The Inflation thread, Discussion
wren
post Posted: Jan 13 2015, 11:46 PM
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News just in.
UK inflation falls to 0.5%,the lowest level in modern times.So much for Team Inflation (read this thread for a bundle of laughs)

 
joules mm1
post Posted: Apr 30 2014, 07:42 PM
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Inflation data today could trigger new era for ECB policy
April 30, 2014, 2:56 AM ET

MarketWatch link



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
marketwinner
post Posted: Jan 15 2014, 04:48 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Jan 14 2014, 09:43 AM

I believe lower inflation specially lower oil and gas prices could increase consumer spending power especially in the USA.


 
flower
post Posted: Jan 14 2014, 09:43 AM
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QUOTE
"Inflation remained below the Committee's longer-run objective and this was seen as posing possible risks to economic performance....inflation persistently below the Committee's objective would pose risks to economic performance...participants expressed concern about the deceleration in consumer prices.....in light of their concerns about the persistence of low inflation....."



Innocent enough paragraph out of the last FOMC meeting's minutes published last week, casting no doubt about what the FED are seeking to create smile.gif



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
flower
post Posted: Oct 24 2013, 07:36 PM
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All this with no eventual inflation? None if every Government lies, no inflation even now, for Pete's sake does nobody go shopping, nobody uses electricity, nobody buys Petrol---what a crock of crap---Have you got the correct Commodity stocks--are you long the AUD?
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-23/c...ey-goes-on.html

The era of easy money is shaping up to keep going into 2014.

The Bank of Canada’s dropping of language about the need for future interest-rate increases and today’s decisions by central banks in Norway and Sweden to leave their rates on hold unite them with counterparts in reinforcing rather than retracting loose monetary policy. The Federal Reserve delayed a pullback in asset purchases, while emerging markets from Hungary to Chile cut borrowing costs in the past two months.

We are at the cusp of another round of global monetary easing,” said Joachim Fels, co-chief global economist at Morgan Stanley in London.

Policy makers are reacting to another cooling of global growth, led this time by weakening in developing nations while inflation and job growth remain stagnant in much of the industrial world. The risk is that continued stimulus will inflate asset bubbles central bankers will have to deal with later. Already, talk of unsustainable home-price increases is spreading from Germany to New Zealand, while the MSCI World Index of developed-world stock markets is near its highest level since 2007.

“We are undoubtedly seeing these central bankers go wild,” said Richard Gilhooly, an interest-rate strategist at TD Securities Inc. in New York. They “are just pumping liquidity hand over fist and promising to keep rates down. It’s not normal.”


Limited Payoff
Normal or not, that’s been the environment now for five years after monetary authorities fought to protect the world economy from deflation and to hasten its recovery. In the advanced world, central banks drove interest rates close to zero and ballooned their balance sheets beyond $20 trillion through repeated rounds of bond purchases, a policy known as quantitative easing.

The economic payoff has been limited. The International Monetary Fund this month lopped its forecast for global economic growth to 2.9 percent in 2013 and 3.6 percent in 2014, from July’s projected rates of 3.1 percent this year and 3.8 percent next year. It also sees inflation across rich countries already short of the 2 percent rate favored by most central banks.

Central bankers are on guard to keep low inflation from turning into deflation, a broad-based decline in prices that leads households to hold off purchases and companies to postpone investment and hiring.

etc etc etc.







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flower
post Posted: Oct 24 2013, 07:33 PM
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2nd post edited out as a computer based repeat.






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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 


nipper
post Posted: Oct 23 2013, 03:46 PM
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Q3 CPI

QUOTE
Q3 underlying inflation was 0.6%, meeting market expectations. Q3 underlying inflation was broadly in line with the RBA's benign forecasts.

Headline inflation was 1.2%. Annual underlying inflation remains in the bottom half of the RBA's target band. But underlying inflation appears to have troughed and will leave the RBA reluctant to cut rates in the near term.

Housing, utilities, fuel and overseas travel lifted the headline inflation rate. The weaker AUD had an impact. Tradable inflation will continue to rise if the AUD weakens. That will leave the Bank reluctant to cut aggressively.

But the share of CPI components growing faster than 2.5% increased to the highest level since March 2010. That suggests disinflationary pressures are declining. Underlying inflation may have troughed. But weak wage pressures and the potential removal of the carbon tax should prevent underlying inflation rising sharply in the medium term.

The RBA will be comfortable with the 2.3% annual underlying inflation in Q3. The Bank is unlikely to cut rates in November or December. Rather the focus will remain on the labour market, business and consumer confidence, and the AUD as the key for near-term monetary policy.

..expect the RBA to remain on hold next year as growth recovers and the AUD continues to trend lower. But RBA communication will remain dovish while the AUD is elevated and the risk is still skewed towards a rate cut in 2014 rather than a rate hike.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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wren
post Posted: Aug 1 2013, 08:37 PM
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triage,
Your post prompted a reading of this thread back to 2008.Had a bit of jet lag of late,the weather has been dismal and politics depressing.Needed a bit of a lift and not having any Bomber Pills handy that reading did it! Hilarious stuff,especially from some of our most respected posters.What did' The Readers Digest' (now there's a reliable publication) say...Laughter is the best medicine!

 
triage
post Posted: Aug 1 2013, 01:48 PM
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Well the court of punditry opinion appears to have decided that the inflationistas have lost the debate on whether the US - and most other economies for that matter - would get high inflation as a result of the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies post-2008. I have seen several bloggers referring to the fact that some CNBC blow-hard has issued a mea culpa on having predicted a high inflation economy (I suppose it is akin to a US Fox presenter admitting that Obama is not the devil incarnate but I am surprised at how much weight was given to the line taken by someone who is after all just a talking head).

Rather than gloating about being in the winning camp, Cullen Roche of the Pragmatic Capitalism site attempts to analyse why there has not been the high inflation that others had forecast.

http://pragcap.com/why-didnt-qe-cause-high-inflation

The best bit for me of the movie Charlie Wilson's War is the exchange about the zen master:

QUOTE
Gust Avrakotos: There's a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse... and everybody in the village says, "how wonderful. The boy got a horse" And the Zen master says, "we'll see." Two years later, the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everyone in the village says, "How terrible." And the Zen master says, "We'll see." Then, a war breaks out and all the young men have
to go off and fight... except the boy can't cause his legs all messed up. and everybody in the village says, "How wonderful." Charlie Wilson: Now the Zen master says, "We'll see."


http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0472062/quotes

So basically what is being taken by so many now as an accepted fact is that the unprecedented expansionary policy settings that's been used by most of the major world economies to see off a major depression has had no unintended consequences or at least no bad unintended consequences. I'm no zen master but I am still inclined to think: We'll see.....



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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nipper
post Posted: May 5 2013, 08:32 AM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ May 4 2013, 10:29 AM

alonso,

you get into the subjective and politicised world when trying to pick winners. Govt of the day runs fiscal policy, RBA runs monetary policy; save us from the day their independence is reduced

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is Australia's central bank, which was continued in existence under, and derives its functions and powers from the Reserve Bank Act 1959. Its duty is to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. It does this by setting the cash rate to meet an agreed medium-term inflation target, working to maintain a strong financial system and efficient payments system,



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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