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CobiV13
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 11:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

How long more Will they allow this rogue outfit to go on? Probably until there is enough public pressure demanding a cancer preventying solution. Cancer associatiions should be fighting this fiight for us but they don't know
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CobiV13
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 01:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Well he better bloody well not sell even one of his heap of free shares and really hope the long term holders start pressuring him for proper information sharing.

This letter seems to be a "stick with me it will be worth it" appeal which is about as desperate as Willem's akward letter. Kudo's on the approval, we have a proper drug, now we need a proper company and ultimately cash revenue increases is where the rubber hits the road -and well before any competition is even on the road!
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CobiV13
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 01:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

"profit taking by long term investors" Why would LONG TERM holders divest? Surely these are the close allies of PW who backs him all the way to the Endgame? If he had said the short term speculators taking profit that would make me less concerned.. what do you guys make of this?
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CobiV13
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Like I said earlier.

Revenue milestones
Transparancy/Integrity
Guidance on forecast earnings
Cash distributions/reinvestment projects

These are what we need.

Cash is king now show me the future money Pdubs
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CobiV13
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 02:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

The Index tracking is a bad idea because the share price could see movements which correlate with irrational market sentiment and availability of cheap money rather than actual value creation.

Wolgen and the team should be fairly, even VERY handsomely rewarded for creating sales revenue and attributable cash AND for transparent reporting/communication. This company has the potential to be a royalty like cash stream until Kingdom comes. If proven to do so and communicated clearly Mr Market will soon pick up on this and the share price will rocket so that those who want can sell and retire and those who don't can keep the shares and collect annuities $$$.

So, I'd like to see annual sales targets set and forward looking revenue and profit guidance also set as as metrics to be met

And performance rights should go out the window because they will only exercise them when it is extremely beneficial and causes more dilution than what was meant for, effectively insider trading. Pay the guys in cash so we can see the clear cost on the income statement every year and the effect on distributable cash. And of course they should be given a window of say 6 months to use this cash to buy the shares and may not sell them for at least say 3 years.

If they truly think that this company could become a blockbuster over the next decade then they would accept that.

What else could be added that drives real value creation?

To be clear|:
I want to see revenue created
I want to see cash distributed
Or where cash is retained I want to see it invested to create more sales and distributable cash
I want transparency and clear guidance on forecasts
I want ALL the information available so that I can make my own calculations of what the share price should be
I want the team to be very well rewarded for this. Not the ridiculousness that has been proposed
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CobiV13
Posted on: Oct 17 2019, 02:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

I like this stab FZ.. would you be inclined (or anyone else for that matter) to expand on the company's moat? i.e. patents running out, trusted brand filling up its place in the moat, increased competition etc? Thanks in advance
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CobiV13
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 12:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

I cannot access this sad.gif Could you please post it in another format?
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CobiV13
Posted on: Aug 20 2019, 08:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34


Could it be spoofing?
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CobiV13
Posted on: Jun 25 2019, 10:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

PAD have you perhaps gained any further insight as to Harris distancing himself from Clinuvel? Do you still think he is being biased due to where his funding is coming from?
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CobiV13
Posted on: Jun 25 2019, 07:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/24/well/liv...offer-hope.html

Why wouldn’t Clinuvel be mentioned in this article? 🤔
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CobiV13
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 12:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Seems there may be some competition for Vitiligo treatments brewing from so called "JAK inhibitors" .. I THOUGHT Clinuvel was the front runner in trials and we'd see any competition a mile off.

Anybody else come across the below?

https://www.umassmed.edu/vitiligo/blog/blog...ts-in-vitiligo/

https://www.umassmed.edu/vitiligo/clinical-trials/


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CobiV13
Posted on: Jun 11 2019, 03:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

I'd order one that reads "Clinuvel FDA Approved 6 OCT 2019" in anticipation of the big day
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CobiV13
Posted on: Apr 26 2019, 10:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Munger calls such a "satisfaction feeling about being right" a confirmation bias... Careful of that bc you havn't actually been proven right until 8 July, any growth that may follow and ultimately the day you actually liquidate to show cash in the bank. Because cash is king. Myself, I just feel I have been lucky to buy in over the last few years. I hope in the end we are right.
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CobiV13
Posted on: Apr 26 2019, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

"choice of 50,000 life science companies in the world" perhaps a bit optimistic. There aren't even that many PLCs in the world, in all sectors.

So Flomm has been using Sphene to get word out even though they deny it... But I do agree with Sphene...do your own analysis and DD.

Still havn't seen any "natural tan" on an EPP patient just saying
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CobiV13
Posted on: Mar 12 2019, 10:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

I would be so bleak if there was a take-over.. but if I was a half decent CIO at Big Pharma I'd be best mates with Wolgen by now -current recurring nightmare that this is the case

Who is buying all this volume? Surely not just shorties?
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CobiV13
Posted on: Feb 7 2019, 02:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Does anybody know why the Scenesse leaflet on the website https://www.clinuvel.com/pharmaceutical/scenesse/scenesse (last revised in Jan 2015) recommends 3 implants only? Max 4

At least it also gives some indication on skin colouring: "Because this medicine increases eumelanin, in most treated patients the skin will darken. This is an expected response to this medicine, and the darkening will slowly fade unless another implant is used."

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CobiV13
Posted on: Jan 27 2019, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

The problem here is that you’re inviting confirmation bias into your living room. I’m all for it if it’s a group of Charlie Mungers but otherwise I’d rather ignore the idiots and be open to contrary positions. At least when I dismiss take comfort that I addressed/eliminated them even if it’s painful.
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CobiV13
Posted on: Jan 25 2019, 07:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Johnny H this is untrue and please don't associate me with said poster, or anyone else for that matter. I independently question and substantiate the facts for my own analysis.

On the topic of affiliation, if there are any shareholders who live or visit London please feel free to get in touch. There are two of us here and we regularly get together to discuss CUV and investing in general. Very open for different opinions. Otherwise I look forward to meeting some of you at some point in the future.
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CobiV13
Posted on: Jan 25 2019, 07:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Absolutely and as I don't have any evidence to support any other use than EPP, XP, Vitiligo etc I limit my model to this extent. But I agree that is already very attractive ito shareholder value and of course driven by the positive impact on the lives of many sufferers so they can have the life without these limitations.
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CobiV13
Posted on: Jan 25 2019, 07:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Fair enough thanks for your comment. Noted on the fact that there is little or no information regarding skin colouring. I do hope that in time this will change with a focus on the natural and protective layer in the prevention of skin cancer. I happen to like the look of an olive skin too as it looks healthy and hope this will encourage people to make use of it if it ever exists.
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CobiV13
Posted on: Jan 25 2019, 01:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Because I can already forecast and discount revenue from EPP treatments and if these treatments actually do have a "tan side effect" then that is possibly a second future revenue stream that I want to approximate. Thus far I have not seen any such evidence.

On a personal note I am very supportive of EPP sufferers ability to partake in normal day life, and not just because that drives revenue. I have my own health issues (cancer) and am happy that they found a solution.

My considerations on this board are however not philanthropic. I am here to analyse a stock as a value investor and therefore seek to question and substantiate what I do or don't include in my model. Had I modelled Allergan a decade ago I would have assessed revenue from Botox's migraine relief and then also the revenue from cosmetic line because the side effect would have been visible.

Hence my question: Has anyone on this board ever met or seen an EPP patient and did you observe that they have a darker skin than they normally would have - as a result of the treatments? If not can you please provide me with any other evidence?

Thank you



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CobiV13
Posted on: Jan 24 2019, 11:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Thanks Seeva. I suppose what I am getting at is that if I were a Fitzpatrick I or II type living in the in EU and suffering from EPP then I would be fair skinned and hiding from outdoor activities. Being one of the >800 patients to receive Scenesse I would be rejoicing and, wanting to find and encourage fellow sufferers I would be taking selfies on the beach showcasing my new safe and naturally produced Type IV olive skinned protective layer in a bikini on instagram/facebook.

I'm just not sure why I can't find any proof of this tan.. in the meantime I can only construct a fin model for EPP, Vitiligo and XP (which I would like to publish) but not for off-label use. I wish I could find some proof or even try it myself!

Anybody seen this for themselves?
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CobiV13
Posted on: Jan 24 2019, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

I would imagine that the EPP patients in Europe who received Scenesse would be sporting a natural tan. However Icannot find anyone on instagram flaunting some darker skin while being happy to be outside in the sun for a change.. Am I missing something or can someone please point me in the direction of evidence other than the vitiligo studies? Thx
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CobiV13
Posted on: Sep 28 2018, 08:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

If you really think it can reach $2k why would you sell half beforehand?
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CobiV13
Posted on: Sep 27 2018, 01:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Thanks Frogster, I assume ( ass+u&me) that if by 25/06/2018 they submitted 6,700 doses and nearer to the end of EU summer they stated 7,900 doses that 1,200 additional implants had been made. I further assume that there is in this time 1 dose per patient given the short time frame. Any thoughts of where I could be misleading myself there?

This would then be the FY2019 confirmed patient number. Totally agree that it is no less than 975 and

Where I definitely need to make an estimate is how many of the treatments are not being reimbursed or more obviously how many will be reimbursed for.. anyone care to take a stab at such a reimbursed patient count?




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CobiV13
Posted on: Sep 26 2018, 08:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Appreciate that and I'll bet news of this steep discount will soon spread like wildfire.

While I'm at it a big thanks to all who has helped to accumulate info over the years on this forum allowing me to make a simple calculation (below) for a sure bet -owe you a beer.
Also thanks to the publisher of the Sphene report - not sure why you applied a 50% discount to the implant price but I hope this sparks the flame for many reports to follow, you're the fire starter!

To the peeps currently selling at anything under A$40: I don't get you but I appreciate different opinions so please enlighten me on how you justify using different metrics than below:

Updated for comments received:

1,200 confirmed patients
x 98% re-occurrence
x 4 implants pa (changed from 5)
x A$ 20k per implant (not like insurers can let down the 1,200 now)
= A$ 94m less 18m opex = 76m
/ 47.5 shares = 1,60 EPS x 25 PE = a tad higher than current SP

This A$40 SP level is what we are guaranteed for 30 June 2019 on EPP Europe existing clients only.

You can apply a haircut for time value but that would be offset by the premium you have to apply for probability of FDA approval.


Then comes
EU growth in patients
US patients
Paediatrics
XP
Vitiligo
Cosmetics
etc etc

Surely management cannot allow buy out less than A$200 - 600? I'd shake on 500 now due to lack of sorcerer glass ball but I look forward to those napkin calcs.

Thanks in advance for comments

Cobi
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CobiV13
Posted on: Sep 26 2018, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Appreciate that and I'll bet news of this steep discount will soon spread like wildfire.

While I'm at it a big thanks to all who has helped to accumulate info over the years on this forum allowing me to make a simple calculation for a sure bet -owe you a beer.
Also thanks to the publisher of the Sphene report - not sure why you applied a 50% discount to the implant price but I hope this sparks the flame for many reports to follow, you're the fire starter!

To the peeps currently selling at anything under A$40: I don't get you but I appreciate different opinions so please enlighten me.
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CobiV13
Posted on: Sep 26 2018, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

I’m just not sure why the SP is so low when the math is so simple that it should be higher. Can someone please crit what I am overlooking in the below high level calc?

1,200 confirmed patients
x 98% reoccurrence
x 5 implants pa
x A$ 20k per implant
= A$ 108m less 18m opex = 90m
/ 47.5 shares = 1,9 EPS x 25 PE = a tad higher than current SP

Around that SP level is what we are guaranteed for this coming year excluding any growth or approval so I would think that is what the SP should be. A little haircut for time value


Then comes
EU growth in patients
US
Paediatrics
XP
Vitiligo
Cosmetics
etc etc
A$200 - 600 SP surely?

I must be missing something here

Thanks in advance for comments

Cobi


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CobiV13
Posted on: Sep 27 2017, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Thanks. I suppose I am concerned about US WHT implications on future dividends or CGT matters.Will look into News Corp case thx.
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CobiV13
Posted on: Sep 27 2017, 06:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Interesting question. Well firstly that would be a good move just to get the stock on the market's radar and with a bigger client market in the US it would make sense for roll-out. Also no need to incur the listing fees on both exchanges for s small cap. Unsure how this would work but the natural course would surely be to delist from the ASX, list on the NASDAQ (cheaper than NYSE), issue the same amount of shares to holders of CUV and it all should be fair and square. Unsure how it would affect which broker holds your shares and where. Possible tax implications as well.
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CobiV13
Posted on: Apr 20 2017, 02:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 34

Low volume manipulation explained. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWiQ8LOBIg8

Now please close this topic.
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