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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
early birds
post Posted: Jun 3 2019, 10:13 AM
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https://www.afr.com/news/economy/monetary-p...y_Sent=03062019


"We are still bearish on the Aussie dollar but this tempers it," Mr Been said.

"When you are a net receiver of funds you become more vulnerable, but our current account shows that we have become much more self sufficient in funding ourselves.

"So if the absence of a large current account deficit means that a low interest rate differential does not trigger material $A weakness, then that rate differential is more sustainable than in the past."

ANZ expects heightened volatility will still push the Australian dollar to US65¢ this year. It is currently trading at just over US69¢.

Citi analysts have noted that the average cumulative rate cut in the past four easing cycles in Australia has been 3 percentage points.
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Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  Mags  
 
early birds
post Posted: May 21 2019, 04:11 PM
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In Reply To: balance's post @ May 21 2019, 01:29 PM

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...521-p51pmd.html

He said there were a range of options to help cut the jobless rate.

"These include: further monetary easing; additional fiscal support, including through spending on infrastructure; and structural policies that support firms expanding, investing and employing people," he said.

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shorted AUD again. see what's happen.

 
balance
post Posted: May 21 2019, 01:29 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 21 2019, 01:15 PM

It is all talk until it happens. Jaw-boning the dollar down a bit will help the overall economy and leave a little bit of ammo in the rate cut magazine for a genuine emergency.

If a rate cut happens it could well be ineffectual.




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Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: May 21 2019, 01:15 PM
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In Reply To: terrine's post @ May 20 2019, 01:23 PM

don't get it!! RBA still consider a rate cut by next meeting. are they out of their mind???



 
terrine
post Posted: May 20 2019, 01:23 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 20 2019, 08:09 AM

yeh just checked and this morning has begun the correction of a near 3 cent sell off over the last month prior to the election


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: May 20 2019, 08:09 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 17 2019, 10:27 AM

https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/time...20190519-p51oz5

Australian dollar shorts are at risk of an imminent squeeze and should be closed out in the likely event that the currency appreciates against the greenback when trading resumes on Monday.

As the Coalition closes in on a win in the federal election on Saturday, this has presented a surprise scenario for foreign-exchange markets guided by earlier polls favouring a Labor victory.
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a short term pump up for AUD seems likely.



 

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mullokintyre
post Posted: May 17 2019, 10:27 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 17 2019, 10:14 AM

Yep, I still hold my shorts. Probably need a belt.
Agree that 63 is next target.
Will most likely offload if we get to 65, that gives me a nice profit to upgrade my 4WD sometime next year.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: May 17 2019, 10:14 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 28 2019, 04:19 PM

mick, not sure if you still hold shorts of AUD. i still have some.

if AUD doesn't hold current level, it rather will go down to 0.63ish quickly imho.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 28 2019, 04:19 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 28 2019, 03:30 PM

Yo EB, all the fundamentals are a big negative, but still the AUD hangs in there.
When the capitulation comes, it will savage.
Buying AUD defensive stocks like CTX , CSL, and anything producing gold.

Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Feb 28 2019, 03:30 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/china-econo...mi-release.html

China factory activity shrinks to 3-year low in February, export orders worst in a decade
The official Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in February, data showed on Thursday, the weakest level since February 2016.
This comes as export orders fell at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, highlighting deepening cracks in an economy facing weak demand at home and abroad.
"Unless the trade war truly turns into an extended truce, the weakening trend may not end quickly," Iris Pang, Greater China economist at ING, said in a note. "As such we expect March's PMI to fall, too."

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this type of headline could weaken aussie economy and push down AUD .



 
 


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