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2012-2020 US Debt clock runs out of numbers
post Posted: May 7 2012, 07:00 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ May 7 2012, 05:42 PM

kahuna1, take will be missed and best wishes for the next part of the journey..thanks again..jacsar

Said 'Thanks' for this post: kahuna1  
post Posted: May 7 2012, 05:42 PM
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I wish to thank everyone for their support, but there comes a time in our lives when things change. Over the years on this forum and others I have tried to give an honest opinion on markets for well over 10 years now.

My journey and life is changing and time to devote some time to others things.

On SS alone humbled by over 1,600 thanks, I have now done 2,390 posts. Most quite detailed with over 30 mins average work in each. That's 1,195 hours or at 38 hours per week just over 31 weeks full time work. This is just SS, add the others I suspect it comes to over 1 year full time work devoted to sharing an opinion.

I believe these factors and imbalances I have covered many times will totally dictate our direction for many years. Until they are sorted, short term with EU and US rates at zero they are artificially supporting the equity markets. Choice is either to receive zero interest or a 3% dividend, option two prevails. With government overspending at 100% above where it should be, companies themselves are getting not only cheap funding to borrow they are in many cases being given handouts by the government inflating their profits overseas.

Not what I would call a realistic environment to invest in. Bond side is so out of whack it hurts. Demand is going up as governments borrow more, risk is going up with one country already defaulting, likely more, yet the cost and price remains low. Borrow for as long as you can at fixed rates.

When you have one factor pointing in one direction usually it moves things 10% if you have two 20%, three likely 30% and when you have 5 things even if your wrong on half of them your view you end up well ahead. Search for these types of opportunities and follow them.


Last post. Just to say thanks !!

I do appreciate all the thanks, but my journey will take me elsewhere from now on.

Take care and good luck with your investments.



All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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post Posted: May 6 2012, 04:07 PM
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I was going to start another thread to encourage people to post their support of you and your comments. I realised this may not be necessary and as much as I hate going off topic, here we all are, very off topic.

Mark, regardless of how we got here, we need you back. Over 1600 "thanks" to you says so much.

I hope I (we) all get the opportunity to keep clicking your " smile.gif SAY THANKS" icons many more times.

BTW if you come back, we can got back on topic. A place we really need to be. smile.gif


My comments reflect the moment in which they were posted.
Everything can change, and usually does, without notice.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: roadster  daggie  kahuna1  
post Posted: May 5 2012, 07:16 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ May 5 2012, 10:22 AM

Forever in your debt, Mark. Thanks for sharing your research and knowledge , which is far more sophisticated than my own.Your commentary has been greatly appreciated, and will be keenly missed.I hope you eventually change your mind, but respect your decision, and wish you well.
Many thanks

Said 'Thanks' for this post: kahuna1  
post Posted: May 5 2012, 04:33 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ May 5 2012, 10:22 AM

Hi Mark, and 'bye Mark;

it's with a feeling of a great loss that I say thanks for sharing your views over all those years.
Your departure will leave a big gap in ShareScene, one that none of your attackers will be able to fill.
(nor any one of those members, whom you inspired to look behind the facade published by the spruikers and squawkers)

As I'm afraid you "mean it" this time when you say "NEVER", I wish you the very best in whichever endeavour you choose.

I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

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post Posted: May 5 2012, 01:39 PM
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A big thanks K1, I really appreciate your posts and have learnt heaps.

In 2005 I went to see a financial advisor. Long story short, I walked out with stocks and a BT margin loan. It was 'only' geared upto 50% which was very conservative as you could go upto 75%. A gearing ratio of 50% was only using half my borrowing capacity compared to 75%, so borrowing only half of what I could also seemed conservative.

As the market rose, the gearing ratio crept upto 58%, still conservative my advisor told me. By mid 2007, I became more interested in the stock market (I wonder why) and started reading sharescene. I followed your posts as they were very well written, detailed and could see you'd been on the right track in the past.

When you posted in late 2007 that the marked had reached a long term top, I thought you'd got it wrong. EVERYONE was bullish from TV, newspapers, brokers, advisors, newsletters, forums. There was decoupling and the China boom, plenty more blue sky. About 2 months later I realised that you were spot on and got out at a reasonable level against the advice of my advisor. If it wasn't for your posts I would have remained in margin and been completely wiped out, absolutely no stop losses were in place.

I don't mention this to blame the financial advisor and exempt myself, just about everyone was bullish at the time. I bring this up as it is very difficult to get good, no conflict of interest advice. I've tried advisors, asked friends about their advisor, read books, the paper, tried many different newsletters, finance sites, forums and by a country mile the best I've found is K1's sharescene posts. Most the advice you see is so wishy washy its useless and the caller can't be wrong. Or, they make heaps of picks and forget the dud ones. I remember Roger Montgomery talking all the time about MCE and it being his number 1 pick. Never heard him mention it again as it went from $9 to $3.

I know a lot of people will say take a more active role yourself. I have been doing this, but if you have a more than full time job already, its not that easy. Not to mention that to become an expert at something takes thousands of hours.

Have you ever thought of doing a subscription email newsletter? I know there would be plenty of people prepared to pay for it. The problem with the SS medium for this sort of content is, the silent majority are readers but feel they have little to contribute whereas a small minority are a lot more vocal looking for attention. An email newsletter would be a lot more one-way and on topic. If you look at something like Eureka report, which I would of thought would be one of the better, more independent letters, they were advising readers to sell everything as the market bottomed late last year.

Good luck and a big thanks again.

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post Posted: May 5 2012, 10:48 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ May 5 2012, 10:22 AM

I suspect they think QE3 ... easing 3 will help in the US.

Am sure you are right K1, QE3 would only be temporary bandaid, but who cares with a Presidential election coming up. IMO nothing will be solved in the US until some really effective medicine is dished out by way of a positive effective interest rate structure that should turn the USD around and inject a smattering of respect into what was a great economy.

Don't quite know what has decided you to take the action you have planned, am sure it will be recieved with regret by many SS'ers

Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: kahuna1  
post Posted: May 5 2012, 10:22 AM
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Non farm payrolls ...

Weak and with the budget cuts of 2013 to come its suprising te market is holding its levels.

I suspect they think QE3 ... easing 3 will help in the US.

Here the budget set to cut deep and RBA actually does what it does.

Have had a week to think and leaving this time.

Each to their own and trying to express an opinion even when correct in the end ... tends to end up in tears.

I will just add, despite time and time again trying to get people to do it ... there are ONLY two times I believe you should get people to trade.

One should only add to a position in sheer panic of the market ... when everyone hates the market and no matter how scary it appears. BUY IT. If you have waited to the correct level you will be rewarded by being brave and entering a market when there are very few buyers.

If your stupid, and saldy many are, you wait till 3 days after the market collapses and then has recovered half the likely range until you buy. Even worse is the idiots who wait till everything is safe and the market appears to be going up and start buying then.

The Other side of the coin is when to sell ? Converse applies and the only time to exit is when everyone is in love with the market.
Again picking the peaks well will reward you.

It is an artform picking these levels and over the years I have been fortunate to share a lot with you here and actually have them closely hit. TOPs bottoms and in real time ... along with sharing where I thought it topped and likely bottomed. I will no longer be bothering sharing. Will leave it up to the experts.

If you wait till things look ok, the example I will use is banks ... one had a 33% range so far between the recent low and high and only maniacs got set on the lows !! Not maniacs, but the bank had exactly the same amount of customers one day as it did the next. profits were going to be the same one day as the next. The Bank fell over 10% in a week and if you waited ... on the day purchased everyone hated it ... it rallied 20% within a week. Over HALF the expected rally. If you waited to buy you may ... may have made 10% if you were lucky !!!

There is a VAST difference between acting when the market is in sheer terror and NOT .

Having tried to get others into positions on those days of terror, hard if not impossible.

I want you to read the RED and comments and think about them. I will not be posting here again. EVER.

Its a simple lesson ... only two times to trade ... even if you get one level wrong and it goes to the next, usually the bounce is well above your initial entry.

If your an IDIOT ... you fail to understand this and enter mid flight of a range and then wonder why you have a brush sticking out from some part of your body, then blame someone else.

Another thing ... EVERYTHING is for sale. EVERYTHING ... if you sit there like some monkey when a stock rallies you are stupid. Even more than stupid. Price is what reflects the value of a company. If a company is $3- and you think its worth $5- and it goes there and you DONT do anything ... your stupid. APA my pet I talked about it just a couple of times, TLS as well, price changes so does my view on the stock and what I am prepared to hold. SLX thread the early days a classic.

Stop being stupid and STOP blaming others for your problems. It is your money , your actions not someone elses, take control. And for gods sake DON'T try and trade between extreme's its a waste of time and money. Yes maybe reduce slowly into rallies but the only time to enter is the days of terror.

Take ownership of your actions and your fate.

All the best with everyones future

PS send me a PM if you need something :} ... whoops this site doesn't have PM's

All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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post Posted: Apr 27 2012, 09:46 PM
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Solving problems can be done so much more easily when everyone contributes sensibly.

If you disagree, fine. A measured approach often works well.

But I hope everyone keeps posting so we can all see the forest and the trees and the Fn great bushfire raging in the distance. smile.gif

No "flaming" pun intended but lets work out this complex problem together so we keen keep our families wealth intact a little longer.

Have a good weekend. smile.gif

BTW - this solves every argument.

My comments reflect the moment in which they were posted.
Everything can change, and usually does, without notice.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: arty  
post Posted: Apr 27 2012, 05:16 PM
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In Reply To: jacsar's post @ Apr 27 2012, 03:37 PM

Yes, someones a bit trigger happy, nothing wrong with criticism in small doses unless it's a constant battering as Flower has been coping. Christ half the share scene posts should be deleted if one was to be consistent.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: flower  

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