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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 7 2019, 09:47 AM
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Great little cartoon from Hedgeye on CYCLES
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Feb 6 2019, 02:30 PM
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Howdy,
with RBA gov speaking and not saying much and state of the Union ....
I note today, as expected the banks a bit off the boil. I do think we are facing a very long road of litigation v the banks. Almost a total destruction of mortgage brokers, similar with investment advisors and even highly qualified financial planners. The latter have an undergrad and post grad degree !!

I still think banks are a buy, especially in the wake of the RBA head speaking for the first time in 21 years in Sydney. Macro economic wise, we are slowing a bit along with China and the rest of the world. As such, rates on hold for some time.

I hope for some more retracement for the banks and just buy them back at 2,3,4% lower levels irrespective of even a worst case scenario of multiple court cases, the bottom line will not be impacted too much.

State of the Union highlighted the extreme polarization of the USA. We have over the next few weeks so much noise going on, that, I will go deaf if I listen. We have Korean madman meeting late Feb, China trade deal, which really means bugger all to anyone, then we have USA unlikely passing the bill to build a wall. Then when one thinks its all over, in March, the debt ceiling needs to be raised as the USA hits 22 trillion. I suspect a lot of fights.

State of the Union a disgrace, seriously a disgrace to minorities and wheeling out people who one COULD only stand and applaud was, what it was. Citing late term abortions, illegal in all states UNLESS the baby is either very unlikely to live or threatens the mother are a mere 1,200 out of 700,000 abortions. On and on it went, USA and D DAY ... whilst greatly appreciate their efforts and sacrifice, it was a delusional rewrite of history where USA on D-Day was 46% of the total forces and did not join the war till post Pearl Harbor. Another dig at EU and NATO and spending 100 billion more, between 28 nations with a GDP of 21 trillion is NOT EVEN THE INFLATION RATE .... its HALF of ONE percent or 0.5% !!

I was reminded More of a Hitler rally than anything else. USA USA rah rah rah .... these billionaires are so seriously delusional that it astounds me. Announcing 500 million to beat USA childhood cancer, whilst anything is GOOD .... when your healthcare is 3 times the cost of ours, and your 15 times the size, lets adjust the number ..... it was 11.11 Million or BUGGER ALL ....

Nope all eaten up by the Republicans and whilst, in the meantime, Rome crumbles.

Sorry, but things ARE changing and I was proud to see the women in WHITE the Democrat Women, its going to take some time to undo what is a seriously delusional state of affairs.

have fun
Mark K




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Feb 5 2019, 04:34 PM
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Oh well.

that was a short silence ... firstly, Iron Ore keeps being bid up, so even FMG gets dragged along.

Royal commission was, well. a joke. Expecting something, given the extreme weakness in banks of late, out come the report with, NOTHING. So whilst cautious into it, and kicking myself at the peaks today for being so cautious, I just couldn't help myself and gave what I had back. When Westpac is up over 10% off its lows and into mid range, in a single day or 36 hours, its time to pause. Not far behind for ANZ.

Whist nothing directly against banks, ASIC has been given a very clear mandate to prosecute, not dilly dally around. THe report, written clearly by a bloody lawyer was, sadly silly. One hand, to get a financial planner jump through more hoops when they have already what is a masters in Accounting is silly. Doing it to other advisors, well whilst welcome. and overdue, the delay and allowed time is on one hand silly. Other side, is that if you want advice, NOW, there is not going to be any decent advice around and in this making the tasks for awful performing bigger funds who are shocking to keep doing thier rubbish.

Mortgage brokers, bloody hell, same thing, makes it easier for banks in the end taking them out and trailing commissions to be replaced with what. Essentially virtually every mortgage broker, share broker and yep, there are some decent ones, they a ll are thinking about becoming truck drivers. Not really a good thing for anyone. New rules on rural loans, will I suspect either add to the cost of them massively or dry up whats available. Again not a great thing.

In the meantime, I suspect a very dark cloud over the banks despite a get out of jail free for now. The pressure is ON and will I suspect make them all blink when eventually one of the many things goes to court, its going to cost a lot more than ever before in fines. Again, not obvious but when you set up layers and layers of new bureaucracies and new rules on top of a mountain of new paperwork already needed, its NOT a good thing. Its a bad thing.

Having at various times held most of the licenses and holding the correct qualifications and so on, the amount of paperwork doubled in the last 5 years for someone trying to advise you on investing or super. Its now about to double again. What sadly was starting to emerge prior to this mish mash, was investors given advice turning around and making their advisors lives hell even when best advice was given. Sometimes stocks actualyl go DOWN.

In the end, the old advice that will be given wil lbe general advice, non specific advice and for someone not well versed in portfolios or diversification of risk and long term goals, a negative outcome is virtually assured whilst getting rid of, YES the crooks ... about 10% of them. Not a thing done about shitty super funds that are merged into others and cover the woeful performance of the fund manager. Similar on the excessive fees they charge verses very poor performance. I have npo issue paying 2% if the fund outperforms the market by 4%. In effect, 1% of it is costs and the other 1%, it about 20% of the NET 5% ,,, minus 1% so 4% out performance.

If they linked the fees to performance verses a benchmark, well, that would have been amusing.
What actually did amaze me about the Royal Commission is whilst ALlianz got a well deserved smack, and legal nightmare, their actions in Workers Compensation are far far worse than any case they heard. Then again. Workers Comp is state run ....

The other big missing thing, being an old FX boy is FX !! The rates the banks get away with today verses 20 years ago are TRIPLE the spread. Instead of the AUD being at 0.7220 and being able to buy USA at say 0.7170 or LESS than 1% BELOW the actual spot rate, todays ripoff rate for CBA ? Bugger me ... well RBA did not act so AUD was 0.7230 most of the day, its now 0.7280. Using the first at worst, one would EXPECT to any get zapped 1% so 0.7210 at worst !! OR this mornings rate so 0.7150.

Well ... hello MR RIPOFF CBA .... you suck, truly suck as does the dummy Royal commissioner.

https://www.commbank.com.au/personal/intern...ange-rates.html

It will change as time goes by ....
Here is a live FX rate link ...
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates

Todays Spot this morning at 0.7220 was met with CBA spot selling rate for USD ... 0.6947.

So you loose ... 0.0273 or 3.78% !!

What wankers these are, lets see what ANZ give us ? 0.6964 ... you MAKE ME SICK .... NAB 0.6932

ARE THESE GREEDY PRICKS SERIOUS ? Of course they are, a low estiamte and an educated one, its collusion upon collusion between them and a MASSIVE PROFIT centre that sees a minimum of 125 million NET on the sale side and another 40 million crossing a 5% SPREAD when people try and sell foreign currnecy. SO one side, they CHARGE to get a card, or USA notes, SO NO real big cost. YES they may have to have the notes on HAND, but when your being given 30% of what you SELL at 5% HIGHER in fact selling notes is 0.7577 at CBA a 8.6% SPREAD ....

So between the big 4 they make 3.8% on 125 million a day and then lets day 8% on 40 million when people sadly have to do the opposite. Wow, 3.2 million plus 4.75 so lets be 8 million a day, say 2335 days a year, a mere 1.88 billion and its ALL JAM MONEY. to get notes last time I was charged to add insult to injury $16- MORE ....

How the hell, this was missed, let alone the MONEY GOUGER rates on credit cards which most hover at 20% as they were when rates were 8% NOT 1.5%.

The end result should be a removal of the FX licenses of the Banks !! To get a decent rate, even on $10,000 is very hard, once you get to $100,000- you get one closer to reality. One might go, well the average is not a lot that is exchanged, and 3.8% on $1,000- is a mere $38-, Just multiply it many times over and the average exchanged is closer to the $2,000 mark.

Oh well, whinge for the day. For now, banks were on fire, Suspect, as time goes on and some more stuff added to WHAT is new, the shine will soon slow down. One hand, great dividends and hence why I owned them, but, vulnerable in the extreme due to gouging on credit cards and exchange rates and various other high margin products.

Not about to chase this one higher, the banks, and will let the dust settle with Donald and his speech tonight which, is a WHO CARES .... and suspect some behavior that IS NOT NORMAL during it. Usually its clapp clap clap and being that old, I remember the first time they did standing ovations, this time maybe the Democrats kneel !! I was thinking maybe they walked out when he gasbags on the state of the Union. NO JUST KNEEL .... in protest, over his rubbish.

Things are getting more polarized over there every day.

Take care
Mark




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Feb 1 2019, 06:10 PM
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Howdy,

RAH RAH RAH .... USA USA USA ..... zzzzzzz

Seriously, I know the market had a bad December, and yep the rules go out the window with the plunge protection team in the USA, but seriously ?

UP 8% in January ? We went up 4% v USA at 8%

Basically the USA fed is muzzled, ignore the shutdown, ignore the capex numbers did not move. Apparently, well its China China right now as it was the USA fed a few days ago.

NOISE and our market is about as related to the USA as China. Or its becoming that way, the Chinese market which has a mind of its own, our market did a lot better in Dec than the USA and of course its massive spike even into early 2019, has stopped like a ton of bricks.

So where did we end January ? Up 218 points or less than half the USA.

Obviously we await the Royal commission report into banks out after close Monday, but, being suspicious, as its the only way to go, the action has been obvious of late. What I mean is that WBC lost 5% in two days to its lows this morning before recovering, but its not rallying much. I don't know what the royal commission will recommend but so far the banks have been hammered into hell. All down in the bottom 10% of their recent ranges and so far away from the highs its insane.

Given the market action and the fact the report whilst NOT public had to be printed, it would appear I did not get my advance copy and it seems it might not be very kind to the banks !!

What is pretty clear, is the insanity of the USA side. One hand the lower end of the population is being squeezed like a pip. The other is the polarization of the Democrats and Republicans and the MEDIA is shocking. Never seen this before, NEVER. FOX is a disgrace and its reporting makes Trump look honest. When you have 3 people in the USA with more than the 180 million lowest, its insane. Same for $400- expense for an emergency the FED now estimates that 40% of all Americans cannot meet this. Something si very very wrong with this picture over there.


Our side, I read with disgust the Tax office report and are they BLIND ? Or just being bribed ? Microsoft when before the Senate had sales of USD 2.2 billion in Australia now 3 billion AUD .... so i go to the ATO tax report on what tax has been paid ? The income was a mere 500 million in sales NOT 3 billion and from the 2012 senate committee the doofus Gates had there admitted all sales are put through Singapore and a tax haven then Bermuda. I look at their accounts ,,,, a margin of near 25% on sales ... so 750 million PROFIT out of Australia and tax owing at 225 million and they paid less than 10% of it ?

Really ?

Apple is worse .... Google and Facebook again the same ... easy to reconstruct sales in Australia and its been illegal since 1977 to TRANSFER PRICE this stuff overseas. Then again a whole lot of Apple cards seem to have made people forget this. Whilst the ATO has tried, its got one year at HALF the expected amount and they went back to NORMAL.


All an aside for now.

Times eventually are changing in the USA irrespective of the wishes of the elite. That NO TAX was paid when funds were meant to be repatriated there from stolen tax overseas is telling. I suspect TRUMP is forced to give a special amnesty even lower then the 15% rate he did.

For now, USA fed is muzzled. Trump makes Nixon look like a saint. Direction of USA market is irrelevant as 30 nations including Austrlaia are about to make life for tax thieves a lot harder. VERY VERY large swing about to occur in the USA which will take TIME. Likely 10 years, but some very long serving politicians were unseated in absolute surprise losses in 2018. Odds ranged from 6/1 to 50/1 and the unseated were spending at 10 times the rate of the people who got elected and kicked them out. To change senate will take 2-3 elections so 6 eyars. I doubt much changes even if Democrats elect a president I sadly think Bernie is too old and some more moderate corporate Democrat much like Obama who took 65 million from Goldman Sachs and then 35 million from Walmart family the Waltons and whilst a nice guy, did bugger all for health and welfare and pensions and so on.

All an aside for Australia.

We have low rates for a long time I believe. We face an idiotic change to franking credits, it SHOULD be means tested to say 50 k or more income verses hitting self funded pensioners. Anyhow, whatever the royal commission does, spank the banks has already occured and if rates remain here, which seems likely for 2-3 years, low rates, earning 5.6.7 even 8% is a good thing.


On the mix of the market, TLS did a stupid rally, whilst TPG is not going to set up a mobile network, Telstra is hopeless and the NBN deal is not what they expected so dividends will, irrespective of TPG likely fall and fall till when I suspect the government will wave the white flag of the NBN as it was stupid anyhow and even 4g gives me 60MBS mobile data and 5 G try 200 MBS ... the plan was, well ... stupid.


I note FMG is rallying like a thing on fire. Sure VAle and Brazil was awful, and good for their overall Iron Ore price, last time I looked and it was a few days ago, the HIGH END high grade Iron ore was on fire an dNOT so much for FMG. Its got lower grade rusty dirt. Whilst longer term have always liked it, was amazed when it recently went below $4- and just as astounded its up here.


All the rest ? Well, housing side is sucking wind and it happens after a billion zillion years of rallying. The RBA and APRA did smash on the brakes and rightly so as did various governments making it much more expensive for foreign buyers. As to the long term, its still expensive here verses income and whilst the slide in the banks may be somewhat worry worts on that front. the big 4 are less exposed than some of the smaller ones which strangely have done better.

For now, we just meander along. USA like announces the BEST DEAL EVER ... with China ... then With north Korea ... YAWN. Why ? Well with loss of control of the lower house, there is a surprise coming in about 6 weeks. Possibly prior to that DUMP declares an emergency and builds a wall around the White House so he cant get out !! I speak of a very large wave that, well, is going to make the close of the Government look I suspect very much like a tea party.

I speak of course about the debt ceiling. In the USA. U know the country that is about to reach its peak population in 2025 when the baby boomers start departing in vast numbers and with record low birth rates, not much immigration legally and illegals, well ... so instead of having 500 million in the USA by 2050 its going to be 300 million, or LESS than they have now, shhh its a secret. Its so we could get a tax cut of 1.5 trillion for the rich.

Amazing place. Right now in Senate three senators are proposing a bill to slash all estate tax over 50 million which effects a mere 1,700 families verses 125 million families. Of course, you may have heard Sanders and others talking a 705 tax on the Rich, THIS IS USA not here. The rich here PAY MORE and higher rates, but NOT the USA Gates pays 15% on about 5% of his income. Anyhow, all hell will break loose in 6 weeks I suspect. ITs going to be amusing and a lot of noise. OH Warren another in the 2020 race proposes a tax of 2% then 3% on the wealth they own. Nothing against billionaires, NOT here or in most nations, they PAY tax !! Not the USA.

Oh the event ... in March in the USA ... the DEBT CEILING ... it needs to be raised to accommodate a 1 trillion dollar deficit in 2019.

I will end with a happy 22 trillion dollar debt birthday party. USA has added the GDP of BRAZIL to its debt pile since Trump got elected. NEVER EVER before at this stage of an economic cycle has a government been spending at 5% deficit. Things are sadly NOT what they appear, USA stocks at record highs but outside the top 10% .... a mere 5% of shares are owned by the lower 95% in the USA. This is a factual number.

Not sure what the hell to do. Our Government, and most EU and other nations fiscal responsibility and balancing budgets in EU has been a priority for now over 10 years. Ours, same thing and with a mere 15% NET debt Federally, we have one of the lowest in the world. Then again if one goes to the IMF they DON'T include even RBA assets as an offset to the debt or the FUTURE fund. They in the case of Singapore report their debt to GDP at 100% of GDP and ignore the 250% of GDP the Singapore govt funds hold in overseas assets. Talk about BS ....

Why the hell we are paying 100 million to the IMF or World bank or OECD when the numbers are so Oligarchy influenced is like how we bend over and let Apple pay NO TAX here. I might add OECD a mere 15 million has identical numbers like the IMF and World bank and on tax collection they DO NOT INCLUDE ... superannuation which is by definition a tax, overseen by the Tax office not able to be touched till age 67 ... and they don't even include GST so it kaes the USA collection of 30% of GDP in taxes, we apparently only collect 27% NOT the 39% reality like most EU nations.


Even more than now !! With the stupid tax coming in ... Imputation. I take 10 APPLE $100- cards and a new Iphone to vote this in !!

Anyhow, USA has its future crumbling and in many ways I thank Trump. Thank him for breaking so many promises and his twitter account with 57 million followers, 40,000 tweets from his deranged mind, He follows ? 47 people and he has liked ? & posts in 10 years !!

The favorite twitter account of the up and coming and I suspect a big big name in the USA in the future, she has a growing base, not even top 500 but its GROWING and growing quick. She follows 2,000 people and in 10 years has done about 2 posts a day and ... thanks ... or LIKES of other posts or comments ? Well over 10,000-posts she has liked. She and I mean of course AOC, has been adding people at the rate of 200k a month whist is not massive, but astounding for a 29 year old first term in office person.

One person preaches to the serfs. and the other. interacts, listens and behaves like someone who gives a FIRETRUCK.

This upcoming debt ceiling should have had the credit rating agencies in panic mode. but like the IMF and World Bank and OECD and basically much all else, its all about the interests of the Few. AUSTRALIA should no longer be a member of each of these. We should prosecute credit rating agencies for IMPROPER taking of money under false pretences. That the USA has the same credit rating as here with 110% debt to GDP, collects 75% of the tax and is ABOUT to hit peak population is EASY for even a blind person to see an issue.

China whilst not a fan of the regime, if asked the last place I would like to live it would be there, under their thumb. Love Chinese here, not a racist thing but China just passed the USA in something else. Its retail sales are MORE than the USA !! MORE.

I do wish the Australian government WOULD GROW SOME BALLS and say NO !! NO to tax thieves taking a whopping 15 billion in unpaid taxes. MAKE IT ILLIGAL with jail, terms is where they are going, but so slowly its killing me. Since Gates has parked his money in a charity, paying no tax to anyone, inviting him here and arresting him is pointless as he doesn't own any Microsoft shares anymore. As to his tax paid at 12% v the then current 39.7 tax rate is and was an issue for the USA, but a sad joke on the lower 99.99%. His actions in Australia, defrauding the nation of 200 million a year for 30 years, cannot go on.


Enough. Its a strange strange world. Not a peep about the USA massive rally in January. Bad news was met with a rally. Government shuts down, lets rally. Every second day as mindless drones listen to Twitter and Fed is backing off. Again and again a rally. Now China deal, it gets wheeled out again and again.

Its about as relevant to Australia as, well, Kim Kardashian. What is relevant to our future and that of the EU, is this tax evasion stealing 1-2% of tax UNPAID anywhere. Not to the USA, not to the nation where they sell their stuff.

For now, our market and currency and whole economy is about as important as the lower 99% in the USA. We are in fact, a new caste system, SCUMBAGS as Paul Keating would say. Irrelevant in the extreme. Our stock market and whole economy just like when the Asian Financial crisis hit, we were sold down the toilet, DESPITE … having at the time ZERO NET FOREIGN DEBT and federal government.

In some ways, I feel like an ant, caught by some monster child with his magnifying glass and I can smell something burning.

For now, with a market I suspect prices a bit too low, I am cautious as ever to the issues overseas. Sure I expect some deal with China and so what, same with Korea, again so what. China and its long term reaction to having its largest tech company held to ransom remains to be seen. The Fiscal side outside the USA is in good order compared to them. Then again so much total BS going on that, well. Sorting it out are explaining it are irrelevant. Sadly 80% of people who voted for DUMP still support him. STILL …

For our side, well buying some shares yielding 6% v 2% at best and sitting on your hands is always a good thing. Each year, your miles ahead. Buying with franking credits something with an effective yield of 10% even better.

I await like most the Royal Commission report and it appears from market action that some more Bank Spanking is in order !!

Back when something changes in 6 weeks


Take care

Mark K













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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 23 2019, 10:40 AM
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OOOHHH ...

The sole financial underwriter of the Howard G. Buffett Foundation is Warren Buffett, who donates roughly $150 million to $180 million to his son’s charity annually, according to tax records.

Holy Laxative,
I thought I had seen it all. Yes MR Nice guy ... pays no tax, bugger the welfare of the 99% others and he has his own private Army.






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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 23 2019, 10:30 AM
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Ho Hum,

USA actually stopped at the 50% retracement and for now ... going down.

Lost totally in the noise, two things and big things for Australia.
China related, and USA declared yesterday its going ahead with Huawei case in Canada. This is ugly.

Even uglier, the Chinese wanted to come early to next weeks meeting. USA said no thanks. In fact a series of comments by the Chinese yesterday got lost in all the idiotic noise. They were very blunt and very clear about China and its IT rights. They were basically laying down the law in their view and NO WIGGLE ROOM. NONE ....

So whilst this trade deal may be sealed, its unlikely to have any substance at all. If I were a betting man, I dont even think one will be made and China will just be forced to go, get stuffed.

I note, idiot media reports about China GDP at 21 year lows, well 21 years ago, their economy was 20% of the current size, 10 years ago .... 50% the current size. Same argument and view i have had for a long time on this, whilst this trade war is NOT a good thing, China if they had the bloody correct exchange rate is larger than the USA. Its growing of course SLOWER as the overall economy matures.


One a positive, the other, well, the stance is not good for the USA side. I note also that France sent a fine to one of the tech giants for sharing info and its about to become a blizzard via the new EU rules. Add to that, sometime soon a transaction tax for the tax evaders and likely they adopt the new Drongo tax when announced, the clock one might say is ticking.

IBM announced a set of results, the likes of which, well I have 35 years of looking at these things and I giggled when I saw them. The old recurring and non recurring expenses. So we have 10 different rules for how the tech girls in the USA report stuff and trying to sift out the bottom line is becoming tedious to put it mildly.

Our market, well, it seems supported despite the USA cold overnight. Rest of the noise, well twitter reading give me a great laxative dose and try not to do it. USA remains shut down, and the hot air and bluff and bravado coming out is, well amazing.
New Democrat house lady, 29 ... Latino I think, proposed tax of 70% on earnings above 10 million in the USA. Well, it became a 70% for everyone immediately on FOX news ... and gee ... I needed more toilet paper. She is being called a socialist for actually trying to get upper incomes to PAY TAX .... Gates paid 12% v someone on 100k is unable to avoid paying 35% .... and Buffett ... 15% and he doesn't declare much income a mere 50 million at most average the last 20 years,

Please join me in congratulating Buffet with 100 billion or so, given 25 to his family, his sons ranch on the Mexico border runs .... well ... safaris, But Via his tax returns v wealth Buffett is 2,000 YEARS old this year. Yep at 50 million declared v 100 billion ... or 150 if I count some he has given away .... he could be 3,000 years old. Some I might add his hapless son aged 64 has built a ranch on the Mexican border, paid the police off and in a recent article was pointing a high powered rifle at those terrorist !!


I know, you think I am making it up !!

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/howard...county-11103225

Over the past several years, 64-year-old Howard Buffett �" using wealth supplied by his father ­�" has been waging his own border war in Cochise County


Tee hee ... nothing like your unpaid tax dollars at work. OOPOH Trump declared yesterday that Latinos vote now for him at 50% .... his highest approval rating. Maybe they are the ones the hapless racist worthless son of Buffet has in his sights ?


Have fun
Cheers
Mark K



--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 19 2019, 03:21 PM
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Tee Hee ....
From before ....

Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.

Magic rally .... must be Kim from Korea meeting .... or the third excuse in 11 days of up up up .... similar about the USA Fed slowing down raises ....well we are there ... NOTHING ... not a thing can shake this correction. Not even, well, a company that had 15 times its debt in cash, according to their accounts, being bankrupt, within 12 months out of China .... ASIA went down, USA ... went up ... EU and others reacting to well shocking news surrounding Trump and his actions, erased any loss ... to ... well ... any and all news being like it was not long ago ... any negative is a positive and any positive is a positive.
A number showing weakness in The USA .... buy ... as rates are not going to rise .... if its a strong number ... buy .... because its a positive ... hilarious and just play the ranges. Key levels right now. As to shutdown, if it was say Germany, it would be a smoking black hole as the UK found out via Brexit ... but ... well ... nope ... we will have a rally however it ends ... so whilst markets go up and down, the stopping point at 50% of the bounce unlikely to stop them. It should given some of the appalling revelations that make Nixon and his Watergate actions look trivial, the sad reality is, as Trump said, he could walk outside Trump Tower in NY and shoot a gun, killing some poor innocent and not have anything happen.

Strange position I find myself in, one foot or toe seeing the inside of things and the other, with efforts to stop these idiots. The G30 minus one is working towards actually making an impact on claims via one Oligarchy head he paid 25% tax, yet none seen in the EU, Or USA or Japan .... or China, so that's actually 90% of the world and its markets, and overall tax paid is 5%, since we all can now see the other nations tax filings. Times are changing and first step is to make it criminal, the people who arrange these schemes. It has of course always been that way, but investment banks and accounting firms are on notice and should be concerned. A point I raised here in Davros and was, well, told what an idiot I was because they OWNED them. I shut my mouth and took my rebuke as I should have. USA with 3.5 billion a year in political donations, both sides of the fence, then another amount doubling that, OFF the books but tax deductions have it well covered. So 7 billion a year, each year and every year, of course, for them, Democracy and the will of the people is an aside.

Not so for the G30 minus one ... Sure some of it goes on, but the scale of it, arrogance and impact is astounding.
The first step of the DRONGO tax is this criminalization of it ... the beauty of the Drongo tax and tax theft .. the secret os NOT so secret anymore and still the dismissive nature of these people v the needs of the society and many is an aside. After being told I am an idiot, for pointing out the first step, I am not about to do it again. Just push harder for DRONGO tax, a simple fair and elegant tax to be implemented which will, radically alter finances for 80% of the world.


On Markets ...


Oh well, never ever bet against stupidity .... or the plunge protection team. All rules are shelved with the second, the first ... well .... stupid is what it is.
Noise, and deafening ... sift it out and from Davos and the Oligarchy meeting going on prior to the World Economic Forum as per usual, they are as per usual pushing their own agendas. No tax for any member and well ...


TAKE CARE
Mark K



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 15 2019, 06:59 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 15 2019, 07:31 AM

Hi.

I am well aware of Arty's passing. His humility, sharing and tolerance is sadly missed. 2018, for me saw the passing of a few, for me that I admired and am humbled via their tolerance and in some cases, Arty, and another I shall not mention, I was treated as a peer and college as we searched for answers for many years via chat sites. We via the internet and my own contributions date back to the good old days 1997 or so ... we, via anonymous nics and sometimes no so secrets identities share, share and grow and swap ideas and methods. Then again, the internet, via a lively and at times abusive in the extreme, depending upon the site are in effect putting forward ideas or scientific papers as such and opening them for peer review and open discussion.
All good overall.

I have had, many a lively discussion on various sites and at times been swayed, corrected and put straight with incorrect information or methods. Then again, its more often one gets a one liner, or threats, or abuse, when debunking some stock, or commodity or even theory. My humbling moment of the last decade was a revelation of who one poster on one site who for 15 years WAS .... and he, well, I am not worthy to lick his shoes. Arty, much the same, whilst one thinks charting or technical analysis is a tiny aspect of one side of investing. WRONG and its an integral part of financial calculations, FORECASTING and building models that can accurately predict future events require charting and seeing what has occurred in the past, especially when humans are involved.

One side, Fundamental analysis or valuation, or revaluation is nice and whilst, over time, it works, its the bedrock of why we invest, it does NOTHING to the human side of the equation. Underestimating stupidity is stupidity in itself. Trying to do so with a tool, knowing that, even though a stock or something is worth $1- all day every day, in a down-beaten market, its likely at best to be trading at 50 cents, in a panicked one 25 cents and well, one with a long list of things not going well as low as 10 cents.
But yep, Miss Arty, miss another mate, a few in fact from 2018. Such is life,

take care
Mark k



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2019, 07:31 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jan 11 2019, 04:16 PM

QUOTE
Ahh Arty where are you

Mark, just FYI, Arty passed away: https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...297&hl=vale



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 11 2019, 04:16 PM
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PS ...
I see from your posts about Cricket, Gold and well climate skeptic as well as not a fan of China, we have little in common.
Always, strange and amusing, to present something, logically and as best you can l ... and receive via core opinions, beliefs, and at times, dogma and fear, and abuse.

Such is life. Open your mind, I would say, but, well, its already made up.

Ahh Arty where are you ... Sadly missing.
Take care
Mark



--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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