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Nickel, Discussion
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 19 2019, 08:01 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jul 19 2019, 11:43 AM

extract - Nickel Takes The Limelight, But Will It Last?

QUOTE
Nickel prices have surged recently but, as some brokers assess, fundamentals do not appear to be supporting the rally. Hence, a retracement is considered highly likely.

-Price exceeds economic rationale of even a moderate 2019 deficit
-Trade signals are mixed for nickel, inventory not yet low enough to spark anxiety
-Likely to be caused by a speculative shift in buying nickel


QUOTE
As nickel is increasingly directed to growth segments, the broker likes those producers that have long life, low-cost sulphide projects and can drive value from exploiting downstream refining strategies.

This includes Independence Group ((IGO)), with its added exposure to gold, which remains the top pick over Western Areas ((WSA)). Canaccord Genuity notes CleanTeq ((CLQ)), a Class 1 developer, is likely to sell down up to 50% of its Sunrise project, aligning with a final investment decision by the December quarter of 2019.

Macquarie believes Western Areas has the most significant leverage to a rally in base metals. Nickel is currently trading 13% above the brokers first quarter FY20 estimates. Under a spot price scenario there is 38% and 59% upside, respectively, to the broker's operating earnings forecasts versus its base case for Western Areas and Panoramic Resources ((PAN)).

read more - https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2019/07/1...t-will-it-last/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 19 2019, 11:43 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jul 11 2019, 03:10 PM

Nickel price catches battery, export ban fever. Again
Frik Els | July 18, 2019
QUOTE
Nickel is adding shine to the otherwise lacklustre 2019 industrial metals complex, as expectations of booming demand from electric vehicles and renewed supply worries rev prices to a one-year high.

Nickel is now up 37% since the start of the year, reaching $14,665 per tonne on Thursday in London and jumping 4% in Shanghai to the equivalent of $16,690.

Open interest in Chinese nickel futures is up by half in a fortnight and trading volumes have surged – indicating that the price spike is likely the result of speculation more than fundamentals.

Miners of the devil’s copper are used to wild swings in price. From the lows mid-2017 below $9,000 a tonne to around this time last year, the metal gained 79%, only to slump by nearly a third to its opening levels of 2019. And who can forget that in March 2007, nickel peaked at $51,780 per tonne.

The right chemistry
The electric vehicle (EV) narrative is an exciting one for the metal, but it is still early days. Very early days. Last year, only around 6% of nickel ended up in EV batteries. 70% of supply goes into making stainless steel.

That said the outlook is certainly rosy. Battery metals tracker Adamas Intelligence says electric vehicle manufacturers deployed 57% more nickel in passenger EV batteries in May this year, compared to 2018.

The deployment of nickel also outpaced the growth of the EV market overall. In May this year, total passenger EV battery capacity deployed globally was 48% higher year-on-year, according to Adamas data.

Nickel’s inroads is mainly due to shifting chemistries of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery cathodes. First generation NCM111 batteries had a chemical composition of 1 part nickel, 1 part cobalt and 1 part manganese, but the industry is shifting towards an 811 mix. Roughly speaking NCM 811 batteries for light passenger EVs require more than 50 kilograms of nickel.

Andrew Cosgrove, senior mining and metals analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence at a recent conference predicted that nickel demand in batteries could outpace that of stainless steel in absolute terms, adding as much as 900,000 additional tonnes per year by 2030. That compares to current annual nickel production of less than 2.5m tonnes.

Jakarta jolts supply
China’s nickel pig iron production fed from Indonesian and Philippine mines dominate the global industry, and despite the economic slowdown in China, which imports some 50% of the world’s nickel, stainless steel production is growing rapidly.

Nickel also jumped this week due the mooted reinstatement of a ban on ore exports from Indonesia from 2022 onwards.

When Jakarta enforced the ban to encourage the building of domestic smelters from 2014 to 2016 the price gained initially, but Chinese NPI producers were able to switch to Philippine miners in a relatively short time, so it’s unclear the impact of export restrictions would be this time around.

NPI contains only 8–12% nickel and less than half of the total nickel output is so-called Class 1 product, which is suitable for conversion into nickel sulphate used in battery manufacture.

Class 1 nickel powder for sulphate production enjoys a large premium over LME prices, but for miners to switch to battery grade material requires huge investments to upgrade refining and processing facilities.

But confidence in future demand is such that BHP decided last year to hold onto Nickel West after many attempts to offload it, and is now spending hundreds of millions of dollars switching its Australian operations to battery-grade production.

https://www.mining.com/nickel-price-catches...an-fever-again/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 11 2019, 03:10 PM
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Surge in battery nickel use is more bad news for cobalt price
Frik Els | July 10, 2019

QUOTE
Battery metals tracker Adamas Intelligence says electric vehicle manufacturers deployed 57% more nickel in passenger EV batteries in May this year compared to 2018.

The Toronto-based research company, which tracks EV registrations and battery chemistries in more than 80 countries says the nickel metal equivalent used in lithium-ion batteries (primarily in the form of nickel sulphate) increased by 69% whereas the amount used in nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries (primarily in the form of nickel hydroxide and AB5 nickel-REE alloy) increased 26%.

THE DEPLOYMENT OF NICKEL IS OUTPACING THE GROWTH OF THE OVERALL EV BATTERY MARKET

The deployment of nickel also outpaced the growth of the EV market overall. In May this year, total passenger EV battery capacity deployed globally was 48% higher year-on-year according to Adamas data.

Nickel’s inroads is due to shifting chemistries of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery cathodes.


QUOTE
Nickel touched $13,000 a tonne for the first time since April on Wednesday. The price is up just over 19% in 2019 as the EV boom creates additional demand and primary use of the metal today – stainless steel production – continues to grow.

Cobalt is now worth $28,000 a tonne after peaking at $95,000 little more than a year ago as miners in the Congo – responsible for two-thirds of output – ramp up production.

https://www.mining.com/surge-in-battery-nic...r-cobalt-price/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  early birds  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 05:02 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 2 2019, 09:51 PM

QUOTE
According to LME data on December 31, there remains one dominant warrant holding position currently holding 50-79% of total zinc stocks. LME zinc stocks are at their lowest since 2008.

On the face of it, its almost impossible to imagine that this is not a prima facie case of market manipulation.
Despite the lowest level of physical since 2008,futures are trending lower because of trading derivatives.
We have seen it for years in the silver market, where there COT report shows ten years of physical silver production being transferred in derivatives in a single day.
Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 2 2019, 09:51 PM
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LIVE FUTURES REPORT 02/01: LME base metals downbeat despite equity market bounce; zinc price falls below $2,400/t
QUOTE
Worst affected over the morning was the three-month zinc price, which fell just over 3% to trade below $2,400 per tonne and at its lowest level since September 2018. According to LME data on December 31, there remains one dominant warrant holding position currently holding 50-79% of total zinc stocks. LME zinc stocks are at their lowest since 2008. Similarly, nickel futures continue to trade in a persistent downtrend, dropping to an intraday low of $10,545 per tonne, the metal’s lowest price since December 2017.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/38518...alls-below.html



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 22 2018, 09:15 PM
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Doubts cast on plans for deluge of new nickel supply
Reuters
QUOTE
* Market spooked by estimated cost of HPAL plant

* Building HPAL facility more complicated than NPI smelter

LONDON – Expectations of a supply avalanche hitting the nickel market next year due to new capacity in Indonesia have sent prices to seven-month lows, but analysts doubt the plans spearheaded by Chinese firms can be carried out so quickly.

Benchmark nickel on the London Metal Exchange nearing $11,000 a tonne is down more than 15 percent since late September, partly due to the U.S.-China trade dispute undermining demand for the metal used in stainless steel.
Attached Image


Nickel is also vital for the lithium-ion batteries used to power electric vehicles, where demand is set to accelerate exponentially over coming years. This is why companies in China, which dominates electric vehicle battery production, need to secure nickel supplies.

That includes GEM, which recently announced it was teaming up with Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and Tsingshan Holding Group to invest $700 million in an Indonesian project to produce battery-grade nickel chemicals.

Also involved is Japanese trading house Hanwa, which in a release said production would start in 2019.

The consortium aims to establish a 50,000-tonne high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facility at Tsingshan's industrial park in Morowali, on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi, to produce nickel and cobalt chemicals.

"There is panic about supply, but the Tsingshan project isn't going to hit the market next year. It will take two to three years," said Jim Lennon, managing director of Red Door Research.

GEM, CATL and Tsingshan did not respond to requests for comment.

A source at one of the Chinese partners said construction may start at the end of 2019 after a site had been selected and the equipment ordered and delivered, but that the date may be pushed back to 2020.

"What also spooked everybody was that they said it was going to cost $700 million," Lennon said.

"Pretty much every HPAL project has taken longer and cost more than was originally announced."

One example analysts cite is Ambatovy in Madagascar. On its website, Ambatovy says the project cost $8 billion and will have capacity to produce 60,000 tonnes of nickel.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 20 2018, 10:53 AM
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Flow of LME nickel to hidden storage dents bull story
Reuters | about 8 hours ago |

QUOTE
LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) – The bulk of nickel moving out of London Metal Exchange-approved warehouses in Asia is showing up in hidden facilities in Europe, analysts said, denting a bullish scenario of potential shortages.

LME nickel stocks have shrunk by about 40 percent this year, largely from warehouses in Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore, but much of that metal is not being consumed, industry sources and analysts said.

Nickel is mainly used to make stainless steel, but forecasts show that more will be needed for electric vehicle batteries in coming years.

It has been the LME's top performer this year and prices were up 25 percent in June, before the wider market was hit by macroeconomic worries.

Some investors have been bullish about the sharply lower inventories, arguing that deficits and strong consumption were finally cutting stockpiles and raising prospects for shortages.Trade data shows that much of the nickel departing Asia is arriving in the Netherlands, a warehousing centre with both LME depots and non-registered ones with cheaper rental rates.

"Some people are taking a bullish tone from the draw in stocks, but you shouldn't be 100 percent bullish about the stocks draw if you look at where the stock is travelling," said Macquarie analyst Vivienne Lloyd.

"Europe is not such a big nickel consumer that it would suddenly need such a large stock draw from the LME Asian warehouses. So, it seems more likely to point to stocking behaviour in Europe."

During the first seven months of the year 39,358 tonnes of unwrought nickel was exported from Malaysia to the Netherlands, compared with 1,167 tonnes in the same period last year, according to data from the International Nickel Study Group.


read more - http://www.mining.com/web/flow-lme-nickel-...nts-bull-story/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 30 2018, 02:01 PM
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Indonesian island of Sulawesi.was hit by that big earthquake & tsunami last week. Recent IPO NIC is also located there (I believe)

China battery firms set up $700m nickel joint venture in Indonesia
Reuters | a day ago
QUOTE
BEIJING, Sept 28 (Reuters) – Chinese battery firm GEM Co Ltd on Friday said it was teaming up with four companies to invest a total of $700 million in a project to produce battery-grade nickel chemicals in Indonesia.

The investment comes as several global metals producers have also set their sights on Indonesia's nickel reserves, looking to tap an expected surge in demand for the battery metal from the electric vehicle sector.

The companies joining GEM include units of top Chinese lithium battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL) and stainless steel-maker Tsingshan Holding Group.

They aim to establish nickel smelting capacity of at least 50,000 tonnes per year at Tsingshan's industrial park in Morowali on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.

The project will also have 4,000 tonnes of cobalt smelting capacity, as well as churning out a range of battery chemicals, including 50,000 tonnes per year of nickel hydroxide intermediates.

"In the future, the product structure will be adjusted according to the global market demand and the production scale will be expanded," GEM said in an emailed statement, without providing a launch date.


read more - http://www.mining.com/web/china-battery-fi...ture-indonesia/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 19 2018, 03:57 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 20 2018, 05:08 PM

Bell Potter gives NIC a BUY rating with a 45c target - but then Bell Potter was NIC's broker in the recent $200 mil cap raise

QUOTE
Nickel Mines ((NIC)) could become a significant operator in the global nickel industry. The catalyst, Bell Potter believes, is a collaboration and subscription agreement with Tsingshan, the world's largest stainless steel producer. Tsingshan operates a fully integrated stainless steel facility in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park.

Via this agreement, Nickel Mines has applied US$70m of its IPO funds to lift ownership of two rotary kiln electric furnace lines at the park to 60% from 25%. This paves the way for equity production of 10,000tpa of nickel in nickel pig iron in 2019. These production lines are well advanced with commissioning on track for the June quarter of 2019. Bell Potter believes Nickel Mines represents a compelling opportunity to gain exposure to low-risk, low-cost nickel production.

The broker initiates coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.45 target, suggesting the stock is a rare exposure to strengthening nickel market fundamentals as one of only a handful of listed, pure nickel plays worldwide.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 19 2018, 11:24 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 20 2018, 05:08 PM

QUOTE
Inauspicious launch


Having a project in Indonesia has certain risks attaching - IAU's "stolen mine" just one that immediately comes to mind. One for the brave, IMHO

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/a-guide-to-...e-in-indonesia/





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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