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Foreign Currency, Discussion
early birds
post Posted: Oct 7 2020, 09:35 AM
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https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/fx-...win/ar-BB19LGHS

Options are widely used to hedge against expected moves ahead of a major event. "Vol" is a key input in the price of an option and can vary for an instrument depending on supply and demand for options and time to maturity. The higher the volatility, the greater the uncertainty over a given term.

Options strategists pointed to flatter implied volatility curves for most currency pairs and said longer-dated volatility, three months and onwards, traded lower than the shorter-dated vols.

This suggested that investors are expecting less chaos and a calmer market weeks after the Nov. 3 election. The three-month volatility extends until December and any view or expectation of turmoil will be reflected in the options pricing for this period.

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kinda think the same for me!! if "sleepy Joe" wins then market will be less choppy , but most of thingy will be the same as trumpies only more of lefty side!!
so much heapy about this election !!



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 18 2020, 01:53 PM
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In Reply To: Mork's post @ Sep 17 2020, 02:49 PM

For those interested in the creation of the rogue that is the US fed, The Book ,The Creature from Jekyll Island by Ed Griffin makes fascinating reading.
As they say, money talks.
Really big money yells.
Mick



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Mork
post Posted: Sep 17 2020, 02:49 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 17 2020, 10:59 AM

The history of the establishment of Federal reserve probably plays a part in the continuation of USD supremacy also.
None other than Mick's favourite banker JP Morgan, plus Warburg, Rockefeller and Rothschild banking interests designed and convinced congress to pass the federal reserve act back in 1913. Despite the name, the actual 12 federal district banks are private corporations owned by member banks. However the board of governors is a federal agency, so its a hybrid system which is legally recognised as neither "private or government"
It sounds pretty confusing to me, but like EB said, the US military is there to prop up the continuation of the petro dollar system.
Given what the big banks get away with, and the fact they set up and have some controlling influence over the Fed, people calling for the abolishment of the Federal Reserve don't seem so crazy after all.
But without a viable alternative we'll probably see a continuation of present systems with a race to the bottom of who can debase there currency fastest.


 
Mags
post Posted: Sep 17 2020, 12:40 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 17 2020, 10:31 AM

QUOTE
The talk of the US dollar losing its glitter as THE reserve currency has been out for at least the 12 to 15 years that I can recall, and yet we are no closer to its demise.

Agreed: The USA has the most open, transparent financial market of size in the world: Something China can't even begin to compare to.
The talk of China becoming THE currency is a joke, marketed by people who have no idea how the real world works.
USA would need to completely mess up it's taxation and police system to lose it's status: Something that is years and years off.
The USA remains the safest place to make money, probably second is UK. But UK has no interest in becoming a huge innovator/tech centre like USA.
It's no accident that all the biggest, most powerful, influential companies are USA founded: No where else can Apples, Facebooks, Microsofts, Googles be grown and nurtured, then celebrated. (That's an important point: Look at musk, a crazy loonie at best: A total liability at worst, but he is celebrated: Compare that to Gerry Harvey, and most Aussies can't stand the guy! But he's almost certainly smarter and safer to invest with than musk with his rampant losses and twitter tirades).


 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 17 2020, 11:15 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 17 2020, 10:59 AM

The talk of the US dollar losing its glitter as THE reserve currency has been out for at least the 12 to 15 years that I can recall, and yet we are no closer to its demise.

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i said many times to people and few times here as well!

no one can put value on the military power of USD .. and i don't see anyone can charge that in our life time [ next 50 years]. imho!!



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 17 2020, 10:59 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 17 2020, 10:31 AM

The talk of the US dollar losing its glitter as THE reserve currency has been out for at least the 12 to 15 years that I can recall, and yet we are no closer to its demise.
The biggest problem as always, is with what do the traders/banks/despots of the world replace it with?
The US Fed is not an isolated incident in the debasement of your currency position.
There is no major CB in the world that is not doing what the US Fed is doing.
So where do you go to? Every other major currency has problems, and whats more, a distinct lack of trust in the people working the levers.
The other issue is that all of those third world despots looting their country's reserves prefer the USD to anything else.
And they are a big market for hard currency.
The last time I was in Africa, the locals refer to the US dollar as a very desirable thing, followed by the UK pound , Euro and swiss frncs.
They referred to the chinese renmimbi as play money.
Things such as dinars, roubles, etc were almost impossible to offload.
I was reading this morning that Nuw Zilund economy fell by 12% last quarter, after a 2.1 % fall the previous quarter.
With their debt expected to grow by 200 million to over 3 billion this year.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Sep 17 2020, 10:31 AM
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The dollars historical position as the global reserve currency is in jeopardy because of steps the U.S. has taken to save its economy during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates. While equities and gold benefited from trillions of dollars in fiscal spending and monetary injections, those efforts are debasing the currency, he warned. David E. Rovella


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from Bloomberg

it's just one of the opinion , take it with grain of slat?? if don't like it!! smile.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 24 2020, 08:46 AM
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/moody-...20200623-p5556y

Australia is one of just 10 countries to retain its AAA credit rating through the coronavirus-induced global recession, after Moody's Investors Service affirmed the pristine rating and maintained its stable outlook for government finances.

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that will be further up side for AUD i reckon. but i'm not focus it as much as some others here.



 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 22 2020, 10:36 AM
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China is also set to announce the June fixing of its benchmark lending rate at around 9:30 a.m. HK/SIN on Monday. 74% of participants in a recent snap survey conducted by Reuters expected no change to the one-year loan prime rate.

China: 1-year and 5-year loan prime rate announcement at 9:30 a.m. HK/SIN

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/asia-market...s-in-focus.html

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not sure how AUD gonna react to it. might be no reaction at all?? unsure.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 05:28 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 30 2019, 05:13 PM

Also in the article..
QUOTE
... despite some countries like China and Russia moving out of dollar-denominated assets for reasons both political and economic, the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency

- no mention of those two cowboy states as alternatives; Rule of Law still amounts for something.

Whatever happens, things will happen slowly. I think the article was trying to point out it's not all weighted one way, and US dominance / hegemony is waning.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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