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Gold, Discussion
joules mm1
post Posted: Yesterday, 04:21 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Yesterday, 09:22 AM

gold/xauusd has travelled back halfway (from the futures open to the high) and plained sideways, very good indication the bulls are holding for another push

xauusd 1643 (open) is the uncle point until a higher high prints





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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
nipper
post Posted: Yesterday, 04:19 PM
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my friendly chartist/ tea leaves exhumer, Jonathan Pain, has been banging on about gold for a while. So far he's close to the mark.
Latest Weekly says:
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When I look at [the] chart I see a long period of consolidation, or basing, between early 2013 and mid to late 2019.

I can’t remember when I first said that I thought gold could reach $1,800 in 2020, but that is where I think it is heading.

Gold has been the classic safe haven asset that it is meant to be, since the outbreak of the coronavirus.

Particularly noteworthy is that gold has risen sharply despite the strength in the US$

As you know there is, traditionally, an inverse relationship between gold and the U.S dollar.

Not this time.

Similarly, as myself and others have pointed out, gold looks increasingly attractive in a world of low nominal and real yields as it is a zero yielding asset.

The undeniable safe haven and diversification qualities exhibited by gold over the past few months will no doubt have caught the attention of asset allocators all across the world.

All of this tells me that gold is going to get a lot of attention in the weeks and months ahead.

In fact I predict that gold will be a topic of BBQ conversation in the very near future.

I felt a bit vulnerable when I said I thought we could see $1,800 this year and now sense the 2011 highs will be seen by the time this is all over.

I have been suggesting that you stay long gold for some time and I do hope that many of you have




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:22 AM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Yesterday, 09:17 AM

only confirmed if/with xauusd rolling back thru 1643's
Attached Image








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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:17 AM
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blow off ?



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
nipper
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:59 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 23 2020, 11:12 AM

and expecting a continued rally today
(so glad I held on, recently)




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 23 2020, 11:12 AM
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QUOTE
Expecting gold stocks to rally tomorrow...
And they did 👍

QUOTE
In a note on its commodities outlook, Goldman argues that the outlook for lower US yields and weaker equities "creates further upside risks to our gold forecasts with gold pushing towards $1,750 should the coronavirus be contained during Q1".

However, if the virus disruption stretches into Q2, "we see substantially more upside from here - towards $1,850, depending on the magnitude of global monetary policy response".

Adding that "we see such a rally being driven by the continued search for yield, increased demand for portfolio diversification and higher political uncertainty" with gold being "a strategic allocation to protect a portfolio from geopolitical risks such as the current outbreak, de-dollarization and negative real yields".

A lot of fancy words on offer by Goldman Sachs but the bottom line is that as long as yields still depressed and easing policy looks set to continue, gold will definitely find support one way or another. The coronavirus outbreak only serves to offer additional fuel to that....

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysi...-sachs-20200221



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 18 2020, 08:09 PM
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Gold in USD at its highest since 2013.
Given that AUD has fallen below 67 handle again, gold in AUD has set another all time record.
Expecting gold stocks to rally tomorrow.
Mick



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lgrif
post Posted: Feb 17 2020, 01:49 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 17 2020, 08:50 AM

Hi. That's weird. Did the US bank exchange an asset, say cash, for an asset "Gold" ? ie did it in fact buy gold?
I'd never realised that when the UK central bank buys and sells gold overseas it is in effect importing or exporting.

 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 17 2020, 08:50 AM
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Zero hedge has an interesting tory on gold dissappearing from the UIK.
The world of international "finance" has become so opaque that we mere mortals have no idea what the scheming bastards are up to .
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This is a story about a chart. A pretty astonishing chart.

A chart that has all sorts of consequences, including misleading ministers, distorting our view on the nature of the UK economy and creating a genuine mystery about what's going on in the bowels of the UK economy.

Here's the chart in question:
exports of gold from the UK...For the vast majority of history they were near zero (average monthly level apt £126m). Then, suddenly, in the last two months of last year, gold exports were catapulted higher.

It's a staggering chart.

Just to put that spike into context, £12bn (what those two months of gold exports add up to) is the total annual output of a country like Jamaica. It is more than we typically export, over a two month period, to ANY single country, including US or Germany (our biggest trading partners).

It has serious consequences. Since comparable records began in 1998, there hasn't been a single month where the UK was a net goods exporter. We've always had a deficit. In December, thanks to the £12bn gold exports, Britain recorded its first monthly trade surplus on recordFor the vast majority of history they were near zero (average monthly level apt £126m). Then, suddenly, in the last two months of last year, gold exports were catapulted higher.

It's a staggering chart.

Just to put that spike into context, £12bn (what those two months of gold exports add up to) is the total annual output of a country like Jamaica. It is more than we typically export, over a two month period, to ANY single country, including US or Germany (our biggest trading partners).

It has serious consequences. Since comparable records began in 1998, there hasn't been a single month where the UK was a net goods exporter. We've always had a deficit. In December, thanks to the £12bn gold exports, Britain recorded its first monthly trade surplus on record...
Since then The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has started trying to strip gold out of the figures. Indeed the gold chart above is a new series they've just published.

However ONS are bound by international regulations to include gold in the headline numbers. That massively distorts them. After all, the UK is the world hub for gold trading. Any movement/change of ownership of gold bars counts as imports/exports even though it's hardly what anyone would consider an "export."

You might've thought all of that would mean our politicians would think twice before boasting about those dodgy headline trade figures. Not a bit of it. This week, Liz Truss, MP for South West Norfolk, and UK Trade Secretary, tweeted this about them:

Every bullet point in her tweet is wrong if you strip out gold exports:

UK biz exported £674bn of goods & services (not £689)

A 2.9% increase on 2018 (lowest since 2016; not 5.0%)

We don't know how much exports to non-EU countries rose; ONS hasn't worked them out ex-gold

It's not like exports are doing badly. They're at 30.4% of GDP once you strip out gold. That's one of the highest levels in decades, though it is down on last year. Perhaps that's why Liz Truss used the dodgy headline numbers which look far better because of that £12bn of gold exports.But none of that solves the real mystery here.

Why did gold exports spike so dramatically?

One thesis doing the rounds is that it has something to do with this story: Poland repatriating some of the gold that's been in the Bank of England's vaults since WW2...But it's not that, because central bank gold movements (monetary gold) aren't included in these gold statistics. Anyway all that Polish gold still wouldn't account for all the gold that changed hands in Nov/Dec. It's equivalent to Barbados's GDP, not Jamaica's.

As far as I can divine here's the answer.

A US bank with London gold vaults shifted some of that gold from being "unallocated" to being "allocated".

Effectively it moved it on its balance sheet.

The gold stayed in the same vault but technically it shifted from UK ownership to US.

In other words, a couple of clicks in a bank's spreadsheet caused the biggest fluctuation in Britain's trade figures in modern history. At least that's the most plausible explanation.

Though it raises further questions: Why? Is the bank in trouble? And who owns the gold anyway? And is it just a coincidence that all of this occurred as The Fed was forced to unleash unprecedented liquidity to support the repo market...

Short answer: we may never know. No other sector is as cloak-and-dagger as gold. What we do know is that crazy stuff is happening beneath Britain's national statistics and it's time we started paying attention to it.


I think it is interesting that the start of this massive gold shift coincides with the massive victory for the pro brexit forces in UK elections.
I also wonder if the departure of the Chancellor of the Exchequer has something to do with it.
I just love a good conspiracy theory.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 17 2020, 07:42 AM
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So, will the paper derivitives finally be stomped on and stop drpressing PM prices??
From WOP
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Bloomberg News reporters Tom Schoenberg and Liam Vaughan broke the story that JPMorgan Chase is under a criminal probe by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) over charges of rigging gold, silver and other precious metals markets. Six traders who worked on the precious metals desk at JPMorgan Chase have been indicted thus far but this is the first report that the bank itself is also under a criminal investigation. This marks the fourth criminal probe of the bank in the past 8 years by the U.S. Department of Justice with the bank pleading guilty to three felony counts in two of the prior criminal investigations.

Throughout this serial crime wave, the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase has kept Jamie Dimon in his seat as Chairman and CEO. Despite knowing that three of the bank’s traders had been charged under the criminal RICO statute and that the investigation could very likely result in criminal charges against the recidivist bank itself, the Board recently awarded Dimon a pay package of $31.5 million for last year – buttressing presidential candidate Bernie Sanders’ message that the business model of Wall Street is fraud.

There was a time in America when a criminal probe of the nation’s largest bank, which holds $1.6 trillion in the life savings of moms and pops at more than 5300 bank branches across the country, would have been worthy of a front-page headline. Not today. Crime and fraud are so de rigueur at the bank led by Dimon that not one major newspaper ran the headline on the front page or anywhere else in the paper.

Corporate media is, in fact, complicit in letting Dimon and his Board off the hook. Dimon’s public relations flacks have teamed up with mainstream media to create the false narrative that Dimon is some kind of economic genius and a Wall Street superstar. Bloomberg News itself has perpetuated that myth by portraying Dimon as the man whose greatest mission is to take good care of his customers – despite the hard fact that federal regulators are perpetually documenting how the bank is ripping its customers off in brazen fraudulent actions. As recently as November 10 of last year, Lesley Stahl of the CBS investigative news program, 60 Minutes, interviewed Dimon and strolled through the bank’s trading floor without ever asking Dimon about the unprecedented felony charges the bank has been forced to plead guilty to under his tenure.


It is instructive to compare the treatment of Australias major Banks following the banking Royal Commission with the treatment of the Major US Commercial Banks, given that all of them have been charged with various crimes since the GFC. Only one Bank leader, the head of We;ls Fargo has been charged ( see Wells chief fined.).

Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


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