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The Banks
Does It Get Any Better For The Big Four?
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nipper
post Posted: Mar 23 2020, 07:41 PM
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QUOTE
.....balance sheets of the banks are viewed as better positioned than before the global financial crisis.

"Clearly the banks are not immune to what's going on. They're at the epicentre of the current crisis due to the critical role they play in the economy," said portfolio manager Brett McNeill. "We don't know where earnings will land and by extension dividends, although our base case is that both will be cut but we don't know the extent just yet."

He said more would be known when three of the big four banks – which account for four of Djerriwarrh's six biggest holdings – report in May, though "a lot has to play out between now and then".

The big four banks and Macquarie Group were better able to withstand the current pressures on their balance sheets than past crises.

"Banks are in a much better position in terms of their capital and their liquidity versus heading into the GFC," Mr McNeill said. "We think this will limit to some extent the downturn in the banks, but it remains a very challenging sector."
Brett McNeill of Djerriwarrh



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 14 2020, 05:52 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 14 2020, 04:56 PM

Spot on, eb, well done. I understand margin calls happen at 11am for some; this could help

But, and I look at these things daily, by the minute (miss my live Iress stream now I'm pulling back), each day is different.

Traders' rules while volatility persists.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Mar 14 2020, 05:36 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 14 2020, 04:56 PM

kudos, Eb





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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

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early birds
post Posted: Mar 14 2020, 04:56 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 14 2020, 02:08 PM

i know everything you bought in the morning all had huge turning around with the big arvo rally

but for our major 4 banks to be down around 12% in the morning and finished day up over 1%............that gonna be writing in the history books for our stock market i reckon. smile.gif

glad i did heavy buying in the morning. it's not just luck about timing, i did see "forced selling" happened and take the action.

i deserve a pat at my back as i did calling hear. ohmy.gif


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nipper
post Posted: Mar 14 2020, 02:08 PM
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The four big banks have slashed the interest rates they pay to savers, protecting their margins but dealing a triple blow to some, with bank share prices battered and dividend cuts possible as bad debts spike in response to the coronavirus.

Major bank shares came back from the [slum in a late rally on Friday as the market rebounded and the Reserve Bank increased the size of its open market operations to support bank liquidity after credit markets seized up on Thursday night.

But the surge into the Friday close came after a horror three weeks; major bank stocks are down by around 30 per cent since their late February highs as analysts expect the number of impaired loans will rise as the coronavirus slows GDP growth and unemployment goes higher.


One bit of info I'm noticing: quite a few of the 'spurts are talking about the merits of cash. Even held in zero-interest accounts. Useful to have around when equity markets fall 30%, credit markets seize and bonds lose 10%.

Stuff like
QUOTE
"I always like cash, and everyone should have 10–20% cash in their portfolio at all times. The good thing about cash here is that, with interest rates at such low levels—perhaps even negative—the opportunity cost of holding cash is low.

Kinda dumb to hold cash when interest rates are 8%. Makes more sense when rates are at 1%".




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 13 2020, 02:05 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 13 2020, 01:30 PM

look at banks price now nipper

you can imagine EB doing the chest beating like animal lmaosmiley.gif

seems i did good buying . paid off !



 

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nipper
post Posted: Mar 13 2020, 01:30 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 13 2020, 12:43 PM

the old fear and old panic, as espoused by Andrew Mellon to Pres Hoover in 1931
QUOTE
..."liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate... it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."...
... is less applicable. Or is it?


World is more complex, interdependent. But what will allow a return to normal?




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 13 2020, 12:43 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 12 2020, 05:30 PM

i did buy today.. for the banks
at their worse lvel WBC NAB , ANZ all down 12% odd

looking 20% up in months or two. but if market have really sharp snap back next week or two. these banks might just do the job.
i think selling is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy over done. most of the selling are been forced today imho.

any way, hope you guys bought some as well!!
tongue.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 12 2020, 05:30 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 12 2020, 04:09 PM

QUOTE
sound like to buy them now nipper??


Nope, naw, nyet, non and ochi. But will watch the major miners; China talking of a stimulus package in the trillions

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/...ucture-spending




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 12 2020, 04:09 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 12 2020, 03:21 PM

sound like to buy them now nipper??

i had few WBC [bought them a lpt higher than current level] konda think of to buy few more.......
i do hold some cash, but seems like kid in the candy shop saw TLS, BANKS even BHP RIO OR S32P THE GOOD TO ME] tongue.gif

should i wait dust settle, or start to nib few now?? unsure.gif



 
 


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