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LITHIUM, LITHIUM DISCUSSION
nipper
post Posted: May 29 2019, 09:35 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ May 29 2019, 07:25 PM

I read the MD wanted to do a buyback to get the shorts of "his back". Rather silly, or unproductive?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: May 29 2019, 07:25 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 29 2019, 11:18 AM

nip - I don't follow Galaxy but from what I gather they announced they are doing a buy-back and also that they are going to build a downstream processing operation in China. Re the first one, that's pretty weird if you ask me, I would have thought the company would do far better putting every dollar it has into expanding its operations. Buy backs are for companies and sectors far more matured than Galaxy and lithium (???).

And re the second one, it is one thing to swim with the sharks, it is another thing entirely to stick your head in a shark's mouth. I know a number of the WA spodumene (?) miners have done sales and equity deals with Chinese firms and that all seems to be okay. But, if, as it seems, China views lithium production in the same strategic way it sees rare earth production, then it is crazy-brave in my view for Galaxy to be injecting capital into a processing plant in China.

There is more talk, there is always talk, on hc that Pilbara (PLS) is about to announce the jv with the South Korean, Posco, which will mean it is also going downstream but in South Korea. I note that Pilbara does have a couple of Chinese entities on its registry and marketing its product.

Also, Orocobre recently posted a photo of a couple of its executives meeting with a Chilean official. Orocobre is a bit exposed in that both of its projects are on the same salt lake in Argentina. I would guess both Orocobre and its Japanese backers would be concerned about the concentrated location and country risk in the current set-up. It would make sense were they to diversify by acquiring and developing a lithium brine operation in Chile (but no talk of that yet).



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

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nipper
post Posted: May 29 2019, 11:18 AM
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Lithium M&A heating up
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/05/29/lit...pite-trade-war/
QUOTE
....The current M&A we are experiencing in the lithium space is interesting for the fact that it’s coming at the same time as the screws are being tightened on both the lithium and rare earths markets – US exports of both are now subjected to Chinese import tariffs.

However the trade war is really just a smoke screen for what’s actually occurring in lithium – a further locking down of lithium supplies by China – with the two latest examples occurring this week – first, an investment by Ganfeng Lithium into Bacanora Minerals, and second, an offtake agreement between Alliance Mineral Assets and a major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer.

If things get uglier on the trade front, there’s nothing stopping China from slapping an embargo of its processed lithium, or lithium-ion batteries, on US lithium consumers, thereby hurting US companies that rely on these products.

It all points to the need to take steps to end North American dependence on foreign lithium, by exploring for and developing local mines.
... and now Galaxy GXY



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: May 13 2019, 08:14 AM
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QUOTE
Albermarle has sounded a warning to Australian producers, saying it doesn’t see much margin in stand-alone lithium mines and could slow the ramp-up of its Wodgina joint venture with Mineral Resources if prices don’t support full production.

Speaking on an earnings call last week, Albemarle chief executive Luke Kissam said the company “feels good” about its $US1.2 billion ($1.7bn) offer to buy half of Mineral Resources’ Wodgina project, and still expects the deal to close this year.

But he said the flood of new lithium supply was pushing down prices, and Albemarle would not produce material it could not sell.

“We are going to market the Wodgina rock to meet the demand. If the demand is not there, we won’t run the plant. So if demand is there, we will run it to meet that demand that we can sell and get a profit on it,” Mr Kissam said.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Apr 7 2019, 12:37 PM
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Lithium export boom might not be felt for five years
QUOTE
Lithium won't have any meaningful impact on Australia's mineral exports until after the mid-2020's, according to the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science.

Lithium exports will jump $500 million to $1.5 billion and increase 168,000 tonnes by 2024 thanks to the opening of new WA mines, expansions of existing ones and new lithium refineries coming online


QUOTE
Markets resistant but lithium companies are excited
When compared to iron ore exports of $74 billion lithium is still a minnow and markets have been sliding for nearly 18 months.

ASX listed lithium-exposed miners like Altura, Pilbara Minerals and Kidman Resources have all been steadily falling since January 2018.

Altura (ASX: AJM) hit a high of 48 cents in January 2018 but by the end of March had slid to 14 cents.

Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) was trading at $1.20 in January 2018 and had fallen to 79 cents at the end of March.

Companies are feeling the optimism however.

read more - https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...405-p51bd4.html



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Apr 7 2019, 11:19 AM
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Volkswagen Group secures lithium supplies
QUOTE
The Volkswagen Group and Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. registered in Jiangxi (China) have signed a memorandum of understanding on long-term lithium supplies for battery cells. Under the agreement, Ganfeng will supply lithium to the Volkswagen Group and its suppliers for the next ten years. Volkswagen is thus already securing a significant share of its lithium requirement for batteries.

read more - https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/pres...m-supplies-4804
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 29 2019, 07:16 PM
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Livent CEO says looking to acquire lithium projects in Argentina and Australia
QUOTE
Lithium producer Livent is looking to acquire resources in Argentina and Australia to expand its access to raw materials to meet rising demand from electric cars, chief executive Paul Graves said.

The company, which was spun out of its parent FMC and listed on the New York Stock Exchange last year, said it was looking at low cost high quality assets in Argentina and Australia.

We’re looking now. We’re talking to people now,” Mr Graves, a former M&A banker at Goldman Sachs, said. “A good resource is all we care about.”


read more - https://www.ft.com/content/d3935162-509f-11...76-bf4a0ce37d49



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 28 2019, 02:07 PM
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From the Batteries thread
QUOTE
Further to the previous post - China Cuts Electric-Car Subsidies, Shares of Top EV Makers Drop - following is an extract from Fnarena article citing broker opinions
By Eva Brocklehurst
QUOTE
Lithium

China has provided its final 2019 new energy vehicle subsidy policy. A reduction in total subsidies amounts to -65-70% with central government subsidies reduced by -40-60% depending on type. Local government subsidies will be completely removed after a transition period.

Citi suspects this may pull forward the demand for electric vehicle batteries and lithium to the first half and, subsequently, it is possible there will be a decline in the second half. This does not change Citi's long-term forecasts for 11% penetration of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles by 2025. However, the trajectory may be different.

The policy has a transition period from March to June 2019 which could buffer the negative impact over the full year, as incentives are increased for front-loading sales during this time frame. Nevertheless, the broker acknowledges these reductions in subsidies are the most significant there has been over the past few years so the impact on demand in the second half remains uncertain.

From the detail, Citi ascertains the subsidy for pure battery electric cars driving over 400km will be reduced by -50% to around US$3700 per vehicle. Battery electric vehicles with a range of less than 250km will no longer receive any subsidy, which is in line with expectations.

Plug-in electric vehicles subsidies are reduced by -55%. Meanwhile the battery density multiplier is capped at 1.0x for all batteries with density over 160Wh/kilogram. Citi suspects this will slow the industry's rush towards 811 batteries.

Morgan Stanley considers the reduction in subsidies negative for both lithium prices and related equities and suggests consensus expectations of EV penetration rates for China could be overly optimistic. The broker expects the production surplus of lithium over 2019 to begin to incorporate the price normalisation process, including a convergence of spot and contractual prices.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating on both Albemarle (Citi is Neutral) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile with Equal-weight ratings on Orocobre ((ORE)) and Galaxy Resources ((GXY)). The broker's preferred exposure at this point is Mineral Resources ((MIN)), as this shows significant value at current levels




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 12 2019, 11:10 AM
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extract from Joe Lowry's recent article - Lithium Blunders: from the Big 3 to Oz

QUOTE
The failures of the former Big 3 helped speed the growth of Ganfeng and Tianqi and created opportunities “Down Under” which leads me to a “blunder in progress”.

Emerging Blunder #4, comes from the ‘Merry Old Land of Oz”. I am a big a fan of Australia. Friendly, hard working people, great food and a long standing mining culture. Unfortunately, Australia's strength in mining also drives their weakness in how they think about lithium. Too many Aussies talk about “lithium mining”. Yes, lithium is mined in Oz but that is the easy part. The alpha but certainly not the omega. The rest of the world clearly understands that lithium is really a chemical business with, in some cases, a mining component.

Australia and many newly minted lithium pundits born and bred in Oz talk about Western Australia as the #1 lithium producer on the planet. To those who think that is true, let me ask – if you are #1, why aren't you currently in the top 3 in lithium value capture? I will leave my Aussie readers to curse me on Hot Copper while they search their souls for the answer or re-read the “The Lithium Valley”- LOL. Please listen to Episode 23 of the Global Lithium Podcast where one of your own talks common sense about capturing value downstream. I admire what “the man from the land down under” aka Ken Brinsden has done at Pilbara. He understands the future and has a practical plan to get there as Pilbara grows. He knows that the future lies in Australian companies capturing value from both mining and lithium chemical production.


read more - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lithium-blun...-3-oz-joe-lowry



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:31 AM
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Codelco’s lithium push fades in favor of copper
Reuters
extract
QUOTE
A review of regulatory filings, court documents and interviews with Codelco officials shows the strategy was deeply troubled from the start. Dwindling support inside Codelco to prioritize lithium projects over copper, company insiders said, was compounded by legal and regulatory hurdles that stalled development of the company’s two flagship salt flats known as Pedernales and Maricunga.

As a result, Codelco has yet to find a partner for either project years into the initiative to boost output of the metal. Global automakers, meanwhile, are planning a $300 billion surge in spending on electric vehicle technology, including the vital battery technology, over the next five to 10 years.

Codelco's projects, once thought a shoo-in to boost global supply and lower prices, have largely fallen off forecasts, and Chile has ceded its position as the world's top producer of lithium to Australia.

read more - http://www.mining.com/web/codelcos-lithium...s-favor-copper/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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