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BAL, BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED
plastic
post Posted: Dec 20 2018, 02:19 PM
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What ever happened to that China approval which was supposed to happen sometime this year?

Doesn't even get a mention these days. As if it doesn't exist or isn't important.





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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
plastic
post Posted: Dec 11 2018, 06:09 PM
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Why no China approval?

Is this a spoke of the US trade war?






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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
plastic
post Posted: Nov 21 2018, 05:53 AM
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How come no Chinese approval yet?

Something smells. More like a dead rat than roses.

If the hold up is something to do with the Sino-US trade war then you can be sure anything BAL days and does doesn't make the slightest bit of difference to anything. Instead it will be all about politics.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 25 2018, 12:21 PM
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Always interesting when brokers downgrade their lofty targets after they see there's no hope in harry's of achieving.

During October there have been some 12 notable short alerts, suggesting shorters seem to have a better idea where BAL is headed than BP. Current position @ 19 October 2018 = 7.76%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=bal

QUOTE
Bell Potter has downgraded Bellamy's Australia by 30 per cent, forecasting the company's earnings for the next few years will take more of a hit than expected.

The broker has retained its 'hold' recommendation on the stock, but dropped its price target from $12.85 to $8.75, a 9.7 per cent premium to its Wednesday close price.

The broker said that the most material driver of value for the company overt the next three years would be its ability to successfully navigate both the re-certification of the Camperdown facility and achieve SAMR registration of its product.

The changes to CBEC channels is likely to make SAMR registration increasingly important for the pathway to China.

Bell Potter said that Bellamy's is almost a binary call on SAMR registration and as a result, it has retained its 'hold' rating.


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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Oct 25 2018, 06:57 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 24 2018, 01:53 PM

Not unexpectedly shares in dairy products group, Bellamy’s Australia took a whacking yesterday after the annual meeting heard a warning for weaker revenues and earnings in the first half of 2018-19 and possibly for the full year.

The shares ended down more than 6% at $7.98 after hitting a low of $7.66. Such violent slides (and big rises) have become a feature of this company’s share price performance in the last three years.

CEO Andrew Cohen told shareholders to expect first-half sales to decline in a range of 10% to 15% from the first half of 2017-18.

Mr. Cohen blamed the expected fall on costs of $10 million to $15 million in clearing older inventory prior to overhauling its product line ahead of the launch of a new brand and range of products in 2019..

Mr. Cohen added that full-year Australian label revenue growth for the Tasmanian company would be weaker than previously advised – at the lower end of the previously stated zero to 10% range.

“As flagged in August, we do see a more challenging FY19 trading environment and have observed slower China cross-border growth across the category, as well as increased competition in terms of both availability and trade pricing for both local and global competitors.

“We view these changes as short-term challenges that need to be cycled in FY19,” he told the meeting.

“Our guidance range is unchanged, but in the context of recent category performance, we anticipate full year Australian label revenue growth at the low end of the stated 0-10% range.

“We note that 1H19 sales are likely to be 10-15% below 1H18 due primarily to an expected $10-15M run-down of trade inventory prior to the rollout of the brand upgrade. Stronger performance is expected in 2H19 as we return to normal trading and implement key revenue initiatives including the brand upgrade launch.”

He said this includes s a continued review of the $6 million write-off provision set aside in 2017-18 for the launch to accelerate the transition and ensure a clean changeover.

Bellamy’s shareholders at the meeting also heard a warning that delays in securing a permit to sell directly in Chinese shops would slow revenue growth for as long as two years.

“China is an enormous and complex infant nutrition market and our top priority for the future,” Chairman John Ho said in his address.

Both the chair and CEO both emphasised that Bellamy’s is targeting more than $500 million in revenue by 2021, with a specific focus in China and broader Asia.
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never thought this thing can worth over 20 bucks, but am no guts to short it . looks like it will drop to my targeted value zone [about 5ish bucks ] in near term.



Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 24 2018, 01:53 PM
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QUOTE
Bellamy's Australia said full-year sales for its baby formula will be at the lower end of its guidance, and first-half revenue will fall by up to 15 per cent as it looks to run down trade stock ahead of a brand upgrade.

Bellamy's is also still waiting to hear from Beijing regarding its application to China's new market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation (formerly called China Food and Drug Administration), 10 months after filing its application, which all brands must have to sell Chinese-labelled product in China. It missed the January 1 filing deadline and other formula manufacturers have received this approval ahead of Bellamy's Camperdown canning facility..

- now sub $8



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 3 2018, 11:30 AM
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BAL SP back under $10 - currently $9.98 and 3.57% down.

Still heavily shorted - current position @ 26 September 2018 = 5.32%. Noticed Norges Bank is doing quite a bit of borrowing/returning stock - as per their Form 603 dated 26 September, which shows they hold 5.17%. The last entry was 25/9 - Collateral Received 821,612

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=bal
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 30 2018, 04:49 PM
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In Reply To: jackstew320's post @ Aug 30 2018, 01:21 PM

But obviously the market was not completely happy with the result.
After being up early, fell 5% after the announcement.
Thought the result was alright myself.
But the market is always correct.
Mick



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jackstew320
post Posted: Aug 30 2018, 01:21 PM
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As of 29 August 18, Bellamys announced their result of 37% increase in sales and 65% growth in normalised EBITDA for FY18.
Source: Kalkine Media Report




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I am stock market trader and market researcher. I provide market news and reports to the investors to help them in better investments.
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 30 2018, 12:24 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Aug 30 2018, 12:14 PM

If the new Melbourne plant gets Chinese accreditation, yes!?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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