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ORE, OROCOBRE LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 14 2019, 08:51 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Dec 20 2018, 09:04 PM

ORE gets a mention in the following article.

extract from The Bull's - 2018 ASX 200 Winners and Losers - http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/79480-...and-losers.html

QUOTE
A newcomer to share market investing would look at this list and wonder how four of the five stocks with the highest growth forecasts performed so poorly in 2018. What’s more, even a casual follower of business news has read of the coming emergence of Electric Vehicles (EVs). Hardly a person on the planet is unfamiliar with the lithium-ion battery that powers the electronic toys of today and the vehicles of tomorrow.

Three of those four worst performers are in the business of mining the metals needed to produce those li-ion batteries. Those three companies – Pilbara Minerals (PLS), Orocobre Limited (ORE), and Syrah Resources (SYR) along with satellite communications provider Speedcast International (SDA) are all in the ASX Top 30 Short List.

In the eyes of many retail investors, the short-sellers, or shorts, are the smartest people in the room since with the unlimited risks they face due diligence is a premium without which they cannot do.

The essence of short selling is borrowing shares at a given price and profiting when the price drops and the seller buys the shares at the lower price and pockets the difference. When the price goes the opposite way the losses keep mounting, theoretically to infinity, until the shorts panic and buy to cover. That means, in theory at least, the shorts need to be virtually certain a given stock is due for a downtrend.

So why would they bet against EVs and their battery packs? Retail investors who have been in the game for awhile know how quickly a red-hot sector can freeze over. In the fire-up stage investors rush in to buy and producers rush in to produce more of whatever has caught fire, thus inadvertently lowering the price. Orocobre and Pilbara are in the lithium business while [u][b]Syrah is a graphite producer. Initially the shorts appear to have latched on to the falling price of both graphite and lithium as the perception crept into the market that supply was outstripping demand. In addition, some experts were questioning the extremely optimistic forecasts for EV demand in the next decades.
[/b][/u]
Now there is a new concern; one that was always there and has now bubbled to the surface. The truth is the lithium-ion battery may not be the technology of tomorrow as it has serious drawbacks. Right now, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and manganese are in the mix but research efforts for alternatives abound. The industry was shocked in mid-2018 when Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk made the claim that cobalt, once the must have metal, would be less evident in Tesla batteries in favor of increased nickel content, a cheaper metal.

That could have served as a reminder of the potential of other minerals falling out of the mix in the future. The price of both lithium and graphite has been volatile over the past several years, but both are improving.

While the price of both metals fell due to the oversupply issue, lithium recovered more quickly than graphite. Now the concern for graphite has shifted to shortage concerns with the price gradually improving in 2017. The following graph is from Canadian producer Northern Graphite.

All three of these companies are on the cusp of major production capability and at the very least deserve a spot on any investor’s watchlist.




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
triage
post Posted: Dec 20 2018, 09:04 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 20 2018, 02:07 PM

sad.gif

(but in good news Australian Super has taken a 5% holding in Orocobre).




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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 20 2018, 02:07 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 2 2018, 11:39 AM

Olaroz lithium facility update
QUOTE
Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE, TSX: ORL) (“Orocobre” or “the Company”) wishes to provide an update
on commercial and production estimates following the near finalisation of shipping schedules and
pricing outcomes.

Sales of lithium carbonate are expected to be approximately 5,000 tonnes for the December half year
at a price of US$12,470 per tonne, down approximately 8% on the June half. Production is expected
to be approximately 6,000 tonnes for the half year and remains in line with previous guidance for
FY19.

The pricing achieved recently has been affected by soft market conditions in China having a direct
impact on shorter term contracts resulting in December quarter prices of approximately US$10,800
per tonne on sales of approximately 2,850 tonnes.

There was also an indirect impact as a number of customers outside China have downstream exposure
to the Chinese market experiencing market/commercial pressure.


SP down 11.03% currently @ $3.47
Short positions @ 14/12/18 = 14.04%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ORE

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 2 2018, 11:39 AM
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Posts: 5,270
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 31 2018, 06:28 AM

Going for a bit of a run this morning again - up 14.78% @ $4.27/share.

Currently #2 on Shortmans Top 100 Most Shorted Stocks with total short positions @ 16.83% as at 26th October 2018
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ORE
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 31 2018, 06:28 AM
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Posts: 5,142
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QUOTE
Orocobre expects prices for the commodity to continue to soften in the months ahead, but believes the bottom could be in sight.

Shares in Orocobre and a host of other lithium miners and developers have been hammered this year amid softening spot prices in China and broader fears of a potential oversupply in the market.

Orocobre’s quarterly report released yesterday showed the company had achieved a record sales prices of $US14,699 per tonne of lithium carbonate for that period, although it warned they would be lower in the second half.

Managing director Richard Seville indicated prices could turn for the better in 2019.

"We're not not going to give guidance on pricing. What I would say, though, is the backdrop for negotiations is getting more attractive than where it was a month ago,” he said.

He noted that the Chinese lithium spot price — whose fall this year drove much of the anxiety in the lithium sector — was “pretty well hitting the bottom”.

Chinese lithium producers were starting to put up their prices amid signs of restocking by customers.

“That backdrop is a change in psychology that we were expecting,” Mr Seville said.

The quarterly report also supported one of the key arguments put forward by some of the lithium bulls, namely that it will take longer than expected for new lithium producers to reach their production.

The company’s production for the quarter of 2293 tonnes of lithium carbonate was down 36 per cent from the June quarter, primarily due to the lower evaporation from its lithium brine ponds during winter but also because of a two-week maintenance closure.

Mr Seville also confirmed that the expected completion date for the company’s new lithium hydroxide plant had been pushed back by six months.. .
- with the quarterlies coming it, commentary is
going to be along these lines.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 5 2018, 04:07 PM
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And then,
QUOTE
shares in Orocobre have fallen as much as 17 per cent in its return to market today, rattled by the change in export taxes in Argentina.

The lithium miner halted trade yesterday as it assessed the affect of the new special export duty from the embattled Argentine government as it attemps to reduce the country’s trade deficit.

In a note to market today, Orocobre said the temporary duty will be immediately applied to all exports of its 66.5 per cent subsidiary Sales de Jujuy SA and Borax Argentina SA up to December 31, 2020 at a rate of AR$3 for each US$1.

“Based on the current ARS: USD exchange rate an export duty of AR$3 for each US$1 equates to a duty of approximately 8pc on export sales revenue from SDJ and Borax,” it said.

But its not all bad, the company said the increase in duties will be partially offset by the devaluation of the peso and the positive affect it will have on production costs as it remains commited to its previously announced plans....
ouch.... but is that it?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: Aug 28 2018, 10:14 PM
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Orocobre to grow lithium production

QUOTE
Orocobre, which produces lithium carbonate in the Andean deserts of Argentina, said prices received in the six months to December 31 should be on par with the $US13,741 per tonne received in the six months to June 30. ​"The spot prices are showing a softer market, which are reflecting short-term matters, but when we look at the whole half, our pricing for this half should be materially the same as last half," said managing director Richard Seville.

When asked why he believed Orocobre could avoid the price slides that majors like SQM were expecting to endure, Mr Seville said his company's approach to contracting should provide protection.

"It is to do with the way our contracts are structured. We have a number of contracts that are 12-month contracts, a number that are 12 monthly with six monthly pricing and a number of contracts which are three months and repriced all the time, so it is all to do with that mix," he told The Australian Financial Review.

"The way the arithmetic falls on all that is basically going to give, in terms of our reporting, pretty well flat pricing as an average through the year." Orocobre said prices received in the first two months of fiscal 2019 had averaged about $US14,000 a tonne.


The comments on pricing came as Orocobre announced a $US1.9 million ($2.6 million) profit after tax for fiscal 2018, after revenues at the Olaroz lithium brines operation, which is 66.5 per cent-owned by Orocobre, rose by 24 per cent year on year.

The company produced 5 per cent more lithium in fiscal 2018 than the previous year, and vowed to raise output again in fiscal 2019​.

As one of the earliest movers on the lithium trend, one challenge facing Orocobre is the retention of key staff, whose skills are keenly sought by the raft of new players in the lithium sector...
https://www.afr.com/business/mining/orocobr...20180828-h14lj4






--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 5 2018, 01:49 PM
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Battery boom skeptics seen driving short holdings in lithium miners
Reuters | a day ago |
extract
QUOTE
euters calculations show that the short positions in Australian lithium miners Galaxy Resources and Orocobre, among the country’s most-shorted stocks, amount to some A$260 million, but that is dwarfed by short positions in New York-listed Albemarle totaling around $1 billion.

“Galaxy and Orocobre are arguably the highest quality, largest and the most liquid of the Australian-listed (lithium) names. This higher market turnover and institutional ownership makes them more vulnerable to short selling, “ said Canaccord analyst Reg Spencer.

Canaccord has a buy rating on both miners, but acknowledged a poor pricing environment could further weigh on shares.

Galaxy and Orocobre have said that price weakness was largely seasonal and demand should pick up in the second half.

Falling lithium prices could slow development of notoriously complex brine projects, where lithium is effectively evaporated out of saltlake deposits. Orocobre suffered repeated delays and investors see potential for similar drags on Galaxy’s Argentine project, one fund manager said.

Shares in Galaxy are also being held back until a preliminary deal to sell some Argentine mining leases to steelmaker POSCO is signed off. The deal is expected to close next month.

Ben Cleary, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Singapore, expects POSCO to close the $280 million deal with Galaxy given its new focus on battery raw materials.

“I don’t see much risk of POSCO not closing the transaction…I would say the potential for a short squeeze on completion is high.”

http://www.mining.com/web/battery-boom-ske...lithium-miners/
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
triage
post Posted: Jul 2 2018, 07:31 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 2 2018, 04:39 PM

nip - I described the update elsewhere as reasonable with a topping of spin.

The Q3 production figures were an absolute shocker so it is hardly surprising that Q4 production showed a 28% improvement. They actually missed the revised down annual production guidance they issued in early April, but only by a bit. If they could maintain production at the levels they hit in May and June then they'd be looking at annual production of 15,500 tonnes which is a way short of the nameplate 17,500 tonnes they based on their figures on but 15,500 tonnes would be a step improvement from what they have been hitting so far. So the update was far from a disaster but still leaves lots of room for improvement imo.




--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 2 2018, 04:39 PM
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Posts: 5,142
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Apr 6 2018, 11:59 PM

Today's ORE update seems OK in that they anticipate 'stronger for longer' based on supply constraint due to plant conversion delays among other suppliers?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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